Wednesday, April 12, 2017

France Election: The Approaching Third Guy

It's an odd thing that the French Presidential election presents.  Five months ago....Fallon was predicted to be the ultimate winner, then his wife got into this fake pay scandal, and he's guaranteed not to make it into the final two election.

For three months, Le Pen and Macron have been figured to be the final two on 7 May.

Well, this past two or three weeks....polls are showing this odd shift.  The Unsubmissive France Party guy (the party has only been around for a year), has been taking on numbers.  Right now....he's at 18-percent....barely five points behind Macron.

What happened?  In the debates, this guy Melenchon has hyped up on taxing the rich and dumping France out of various pacts or trade agreements.  If you were on the left of the might like his view more than Macrons.

What happens if Melenchon can get three points and Macron falls three? It becomes this rather odd 7 May election with two far extreme candidates.

If you were going to generate an election where 35-percent of the public would stay home and NOT vote....this would be the mechanism.

Helping Le Pen?  In some rather odd and complex way, I doubt it.  But put yourself into this 7 May election point.  Would you vote for some far-left extreme candidate that might hurt the economy, or some far-right extreme candidate that might run with FREXIT and trigger the EU to dissolve?  A lot of people would say no....and stay home.....avoiding the election.  

There are ten days left to campaign, and I could see Melenchon gaining at least one to two more points, which would oddly come from Macron's perceived voters.  That brings Macron down to near 20-percent.  What would be curious is if Melenchon wins second place by a thousand votes.

Anyone who thought that the US election back November was a once-in-a-lifetime thing....well, no, this French election is shaping up the same way.

No comments: