Monday, April 10, 2017

French Politics

I follow the French election campaign to some degree.  It's not a normal year for politics in France.....lots of choices....lots of frustration....lots of negativity.

I noted this week that roughly a quarter of all registered voters are admitting that now...just two weeks away....that they haven't made up their mind.  They admit this on the street....to strangers....and to the national news media.

It's a fair sum of people.  You'd think, after six months.....that 99-percent of people would be sure about how to vote.  But no.

Having eleven political parties or candidates helping matters?  No.  After watching some of the debate clips and comments....it seems that more candidates actually confused the general public.

Helping Le Pen?  Well, this is what the news media now worries about.  Let's say that three-quarters of this mystery group decides for Le Pen.  The shock surge number would create a wave.

You could stand there for the 2nd election.....7 May....and find that the mystery group has unified itself and mostly all voting behind Le Pen, and then the shocker is that she wins the election.

But we come to other little item which the French news folks talk about.  In a typical election....almost eighty-percent of the registered voters come out to vote.  It's a historic thing.

Well....there are people now talking about maybe 35-percent of the public refusing to show up and vote.  Some polling suggest this might happen.  Why?  The usual answer given is that there just isn't a perfect candidate or party to fit what the public wants.

What does all of this mean for the polls taken?  The polls are now seen as mostly unreliable.....they can't be trusted.  It's not a direct statement and some journalists still think they are fairly accurate.  But you have these odd comments made now.....maybe it's like the US election, and the polls are screwed-up.

What happens if Le Pen wins?  For journalists, it's always a frightening answer given.  One can be amused by the negative talk and how so many things will fall apart (so it is suggested).  My humble guess is that Macron will likely win the 7 May election....by two or three points minimum (maybe 15 points maximum), and this worry is just a bogus topic.

If 35-percent of the public doesn't show up to vote?  That might be worth worrying in the future for a Macron presidency, with so many French not really thrilled with the guy or his politics.  You could end up with a marginalized leadership situation for five years.


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