Thursday, April 13, 2017

The Trump-France Scenario

Four months ago, I was fairly confident that Fillon would beat Le Pen in the French election.  Then as Fillon faded, I was fairly confident that Macron would beat Le Pen (maybe by 15 points).  In the last week, I've come to view a Trump-like setting and that Le Pen could win.  The steps required:

1.  In the primary run in 10 days.....Melenchon of the Unsubmissive Party could come into second place.  This would require Meonchon to continue to pick on Macron and make himself seem as the better liberal.  Some people will realize that Macon is the empty-suit type political figure.

Macron would have to fall from 23-percent that he sits at 20-percent.  Melenchon would need to rise from 19-percent 21 percent.  This race between the two....reaching second place....could be about a 1,000 vote difference.

2.  Accepting the fact that Le Pen will get around 24- percent in the primary vote.

3.  As you go into the 7 May election between Le Pen and have two extremes....left and right.  Instead of the typical 20-percent who would stay home, I would suggest that 35-percent could stay home instead.

4.  Le Pen gets gays, youth vote, far-right, and small-town frustrated voters (sound familiar?) to reach a 51-percent vote against Melenchon.

Possibility?  Four months ago....I would have laughed.  Today, with all the happenings in France...a no-name empty suit guy.....a political party created out of thin air in 2016 having the number two candidate.....and Le Pen getting a massive number of gay, young, and small-town frustrated voters?  It's Trump-like, and scary.

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