Sunday, April 16, 2017

Turkey and the Referendum

After months of talk....the vote in Turkey is done.  Legit or not....it's around a million-plus votes on the 'YES' side....the constitution will be changed.

I will predict four likely things out of this vote.

1.  An awful lot of Turks won't accept this as legit and street altercations will become the norm, with cops arresting everyone who participates.

2.  The economy has been in a stagnant view for several months.  Some infrastructure projects may help to show improvement, but without any return to normal tourism.....I wouldn't expect the economy to do much of anything for remainder of 2017.

3.  I kinda expect the EU-Erdogan deal on holding migrants to start failing within the next 90 days.....being a major factor for Merkel, the CDU and the SPD to handle during the election.  If 500,000 migrants were to land in Greece by mid-summer....it'd turn into a pretty negative atmosphere for politics in Germany.

4.  Some Turks in Germany will reach a level of frustration where they go for full-up German citizenship and dump their Turk citizenship.  Maybe not hundreds of thousands.....but I would take a guess that at least five-thousand will do it by the end of 2017.

It's amazing to look back a year ago....before the coup, and this vote business....to what existed in Turkey before.  Looking into the spring of 2018?  I might see a economically depressed country, with unemployment along the tourist zones being a major problem.

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