Monday, April 10, 2017

What Happens If Le Pen Wins in France?

The polls say that Macron and Le Pen ought to win the primary in two weeks.....and Macron ought to win by 10 to 20 percent on 7 May over Le Pen.  Well....the polls say that.

There are two issues which have come out and worry folks.  Polls say that in a normal year.....twenty percent of the registered French voters would stay home and NOT vote.  This year....there are 35-percent of the public who are registered and talking about staying home.  Reason?  Typically, it's about a lack of choices.  Yeah....out of eleven parties....they aren't happy with the people or choices.  Go figure.  That extra 15-percent not voting?  You can't tell how this would change the dynamics of the normal election.

The second issue is that roughly a quarter of the people polled...say they've yet to make a choice.  Two weeks from election day, and they can't make up their mind.  It worries some of the poll folks because half of these folks might make a decision to go to Le Penn.

All of this leads to this odd scenario.....fair sized crowd goes to Le Penn, and then 35-percent of the public stays home.....and Macron loses by one percent.

A shocker?  Yes.

The Germans, in my humble opinion, would utterly flip out and go nuts.

Chief reason?  Le Pen says she will ask for a FREXIT ballot measure.  Folks aren't sure about this in France.  They think that the BREXIT crowd might have influence, and they might vote to exit.  If this occurs?  The EU is in serious jeopardy, and the Germans can't stop the free fall.

I have doubts about this whole scenario.  I do think think it'll be Macron and Le Pen in the final 7 May election.  But I think Macron will win by five to ten points minimum.....and life goes on.

I do think the French will be disenchanted with Macron and he will be gone in five years.

But then you start to wonder about a Le Pen victory.  In the space of seven days, you would witness some colossal fall for French journalism (similar to the fallout of the Trump election).  The French journalists have talked for months of either Fillon winning (until his downfall over the fake pay episode) or Macron.  Le Pen has been painted for almost a year as unable to win this election.  It has this funny feeling of the Trump-Clinton episode, and maybe a bunch of votes occur and shock the journalists.

As for the Germans?  This would be page one news for an entire month if Le Pen were to win.  Merkel would have to make a phone call to congratulate Le Pen.....and the whole German election would suddenly change to the topic of FREXIT.....which neither Schulz or Merkel really want to chat about.

One can sit and ponder upon this, but there's two scenarios....one that the polls hold correct and Macron wins.  The other is this crazy-Trump-like scenario with a ton of shockwaves across all of Europe.

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