As the smoke clears over the NRW election results (from Sunday).....some comments have occurred over the Green Party.
Yesterday....Baden-Württemberg's Prime Minister.....Winfried Kretschmann....had a comment or two about the failures of the Green Party in NRW, and discussed in short form the problem of the NRW Green Party (noted as the more left wing-dominated part of the party).
The quote out of the "Stuttgarter Nachrichten": "We have there a more dominated by the left wing-dominated national association. There is always an ethical, an idealistic surplus. That can easily backfire."
With almost all political parties in Germany....there are internal factions at work. In the case of the Greens....there's a conservative side, an urban yuppie side, a radical revolutionary side, an anti-nuke side, and a environmental side (my humble divisions of the party). For thirty years, they've tried to function as one central unit and enjoy a fair amount of success.
To the surprise of some people, in the past decade within Baden-Wurttemberg, they've disestablished the superiority of the SPD. But to do that, they've demonstrated the ability to leave behind around 50-percent of the standard platform that the Greens from northeast of Germany would generally be demanding.
The attachment to the immigration 'open-door' that was the central heart of the Green Party from 2013 to present...isn't readily accepted by all Green Party enthusiasts anymore. In the more rural regions of Baden-Wurttemberg....I'd take a guess that 75-percent of the typical Green Party voters aren't that enthusiastic anymore about the open nature of the immigration policy. They like the bulk of the rest of the Green platform though.
What happens in September? Numbers are in decline. The polls show a weak Green Party. No one says the alternate situation but I'm guessing some will float over to the FDP Party. As long as the party clears 7 to 8 percent....they won't admit a problem. If the Green Party drops to 5 to 6 percent....it'll be called a significant failure. If it's less than 5 percent....five or six of the big-name players will likely step out the back door and admit the party is in a woeful state.
A split of the party? I would seriously doubt it. You might see a case where they morph into a more radical and far-left group.....with 25-percent of the membership just quitting. Maybe the FDP would take advantage of this and write five or six items into their platform to attract the disenchanted members over.