Monday, May 1, 2017

Turkey, 2027

I sat this weekend and read over five or six articles concerning Turkey.  A year ago, before the coup business....I would have had a fair amount of positive things to say over Turkey and the future.  Today....a lot less so.

I think the big question to ask....what does Turkey in 2027 (a decade in the future) look like?

First, at some point....probably toward 2025, I expect Erdogan's son (Bilal) to have arrived as President of Turkey.  Yeah, the guy who has been accused of money-laundering in Italy (summer of 2016).  A lot of Turks will grumble about this, but it'll just happen one day that Erdogan himself retires because of health, and 'junior' is noted by the party mechanism as the obvious replacement.

Second, I think by the close of the 2018 summer period.....about forty-percent of the coastal resort hotels that existed in 2015....will be shut down permanently.  Most will be four-star or less....a few five-star operations will be in the mix.  Some talk will suggest a massive advertising campaign in 2019 and 2020....but that won't draw back the tourists.  Construction projects along the coastal resort towns will stop completely.  Unemployment around Antalya and Side (south coast) will be a major issue....near 40-percent, and stay at that level for the next decade.

Third, I think by the spring of 2018....a fair number of Turks will have quietly found a way to exit the country (by sea probably) and made their way to the EU....asking for asylum.  For 2017, I'll take a guess that 100,000 will have left the country....mostly going to Germany.  For 2018....my humble guess is that well over 350,000 Turks will pack up and leave.  By 2027, at least eight million Turks will have left the country.

Fourth, civil conflict will eventually arrive in Turkey.  At some point, the police and military will refuse in some regions to participate in law-and-order directives by Erdogan.  More arrests will occur....more detentions will occur....more civil conflict will occur.  All of this leads to more unstable conditions and less economic success.

Fifth, the April 2016 unemployment rate of 9-percent....rests currently at 13-percent (Jan 2017 numbers).  I would speculate that the May 2017 rate is close to 16-percent.  Looking forward to 2027....unless massive infrastructure projects were to occur....the 2027 rate ought to be near 20-percent (maxing out at that because so many Turks will exit the country to find work).

Sixth, I would suggest that ISIS will move operations into Turkey, evolve and become part of some anti-Erodgan campaign....shocking Istanbul, Erdogan, and the Turkish population.  Most of the threat will stay down near the Syrian border.  A build-up of Erdogan's military will occur, and continued campaigns will be the norm within five years along the border with Syria.

The sad thing is that there are thousands of positives about Turkey....at least the Turkey that existed prior to the coup business.  It's a dismal decade ahead.

No comments: