Thursday, July 27, 2017

Dissolving the AfD's Election Chances

This story will take a moment to set up and tell.

So, in German elections.....as long as you get five-percent or more of the vote....you get to sit (as a party) in the state assembly or the national Bundestag.  Less than five-percent.....you have no representation.

In an election, you can typically figure that ten of the national vote typically goes to parties which fail to get five-percent of the vote.  It's a hefty number.

Let's imagine for a moment, that you can create a gimmick....legally....where one of the parties that achieve....well.....9-percent of the vote....was deemed with irregularities, and because of this, could NOT sit in the parliament.  This would mean that roughly 19-percent of the public vote (not ten-percent) was NOT to be counted.

In this type of scenario.....suddenly if you had 40-percent and you discounted the 19-percent out....that forty percent would be inflated and would be closer to forty-eight-percent, perhaps even fifty-percent (not requiring a coalition).  If it's 40-to-49 percent, you add one partner and you are over the hump.

Well, we've got this examination going on in NRW (the northern state)....over AfD (the anti-immigration party).    Someone sent a four-page letter to the NRW election director complaining about the candidate list, which had non-members of the party listed (a no-no in German politics).  You have to be a party member.....to be possibly a member to some assembly or Bundestag.

What the state director says is that there is a high level examination going on.  Were non-party members voting, and did non-party members get onto the ballot?

This now also comes up within several other states (Saarland, Saxony, Pfalz, etc).

Adding to this mess....the deadline to fix or repair the ballots.....is wrapped up and will be changed at this point.  That means if the legal issue persists.....the votes for the AfD in four weeks.....won't count.

A major catastrophic political mess?  Only for the AfD.  Who are the anonymous sources?  Unknown. Obviously, these are people who were at meetings....took notes....wise up on operations....and then sought to dump this information.

What happens if the AfD can't carry the five-percent or more vote rule?  I'm guessing massive anger and frustration within the group.  For the CDU, it's an odd situation.  You could be talking about discounting 19-percent of the vote, and suddenly having your a different ballgame.

The news media?  This is the odd part of this story.....it's only appearing in one single regional public news outlet.  You would think ARD or ZDF would be focused on this and telling the story, but no.

Making a joke out of the German election process?  Intellectuals will say that any idiot can run the local campaign and paperwork process.....that AfD simply isn't mature enough to have competent people.  A fake election?  Some people will sit and render that comment.

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