I noticed this morning that the German news magazine Focus....had another poll update (this one from Emnid).
The election is approaching three weeks away.
SPD's Schulz is set at 24 percent.
CDU's Merkel at 38 percent.
The Linke Party and AfD are set at 9 percent each.
The FDP and Greens are at 8 percent.
Presently, I'd say it's guaranteed that the CDU will win, and the coalition situation is really the big question-mark.
Generally, I will add....German polls aren't that far off from the end-result (you don't have more than a point or two difference when the final votes are cast).
The odds of a CDU/CSU and SPD coalition occurring? I'd say better than sixty-percent chance now. If Merkel could pull out a forty-one percent win, and the FDP get 9-percent....there might be a second scenario in the running.