Monday, June 25, 2018

Another Election?

I noticed this morning in the one-liner notes of the news.....elements of the SPD Party are quietly meeting and discussing the idea of saying absolutely 'no' on the Interior Minister's (Seehofer) immigration changes coming.  The threat?  They would push to dissolve the coalition agreement....ending the government of Chancellor Merkel.

There are several observations that one can make.

First, it's not the absolute top three leaders of the SPD making this statement.  Those three individuals won't suggest a collapse of the coalition, primarily because the election would be a terrible situation to face for the SPD.

Lately, the polls have been going around 17-to-18 percent nationally for the SPD.  If they went for another election and Olaf Scholz (the Finance Minister, and considered the most likely front guy).....it doesn't mean they'd get a bump up on numbers.  If you remember, he was the Hamburg mayor who watched the fiasco during the 2017 G7 conference in Hamburg, with the city burning and mostly staying in the background.  A lot of locals were furious at his management skills and lack of organization. 

It's entirely possible that you (the SPD) might emerge with only enough votes to form a three-way coalition.

Second, without a Merkel in the mix....what exactly are you going to do to fix the public perception of a messed-up migration-immigration crisis?  Are we going to get the easy-go election situation, where no one talks about the issue and the news media avoids the topic?  Then we get back into another five-star mess?

Third, and final....there's this trend-line for the CDU-CSU and SPD, since 1949.....it's a downward trend.  I have my doubts that the two combined....can make the 50-percent cut.  With the CSU going separately?  It's possible that the CDU might only get 25-percent of the national vote.  I can see an extremely weak government coming out of this whole process. 

No comments: