Monday, June 4, 2018

The Poll Survey

In the middle of the Macron election business....I sat and pondered upon the success of a party that came out of nowhere....destroying the center-right/center-left political parties of France.....long established and funded.  At the time, I kinda wondered....what if the Macron effect could come to Germany?

This week, RTL (the commercial network in Germany) came out with a review provided by the Forsa folks (they do surveys).

What they found was that 57-percent of Germans were prepared and capable of voting for a Macron-like character in Germany.  This came out both SPD (70-percent of those folks thought it was a good idea) and CDU supporters (68-percent thought it was a good idea). 

The question is....where will it come from?  There just isn't anyone that I can imagine in Germany today who can go from zero to sixty in a matter of six months, dragging a party out of thin air.

But here's the odd factors into this idea.  First, as much as Merkel has positive trends....there just isn't hyped-up enthusiasm about her or her programs.  It's like a gardner taking care of a city-park and never getting noticed for doing much but maintaining what existed there for decades.  Second, the SPD is literally dying at this point, and unable to morph into something to regain support.  Third, everyone feels as though the immigration and migration program was run by a bunch of fifth-grade kids with no control and no end-point.  Fourth, as many Germans who find are supportive of the EU agenda....there are probably just as many who question their wisdom.  Fifth, the public TV networks are losing viewers....particularly among the 15 to 25 year old group.  Sixth, the secondary parties (FDP, Greens, AfD, and Linke) aren't exactly geared to transform into a Macron-type situation. 

While I still believe a Macron situation could occur in Germany.....the question is who would lead such a radical change?  And would it be a right-wing Trump-like Tea Party-like political party?

No comments: