A month ago, in Germany, if you'd suggested that the government coalition was in danger of a collapse....folks would have laughed. Right now....the position by the Interior Minister (Seehofer, CSU).....is a problem for Merkel, the majority of CDU folks and the SPD. If the CSU makes a stand on this....it's hard to see this government surviving and a national election would have to occur. So my thoughts on the idea of a national election being pressed (likely to be in October) if the falters in the next ten days:
1. While the CDU might manage to achieve 30 to 32 percent of the national vote....it won't be with Merkel at the lead, and who their Chancellor candidate might be....is a question mark. It could help or hurt the party.
2. The SPD is screwed if this scenario plays out. In the last election....they got around 21 percent of the vote. In the present, they are close to the 17 to 18 percent level. Depending on their choice for the Chancellor....I don't see them getting above 18 percent. It's possible that it might even sink as low as 15 percent.
3. The plan by the Linke Party 'boss' Wagenknecht to dump the party and go create her own party? Well....it'd happen in a hurry and she might be able to take three to four percent of the Linke numbers, and two to five percent of the SPD voters.
4. The AfD has potential to get up around 15 to 18 percent.
5. The Hessen and Bavarian election? They have a major effect on the national election and would be probably 30 days prior.
Here's the unique factor.....if the CDU comes out to win, with just 30 percent of the vote....they got major issues in building a coalition out of this deal. They probably would need two parties to join them, and it'll be hard to form a coalition. The odds of the CDU dumping their CSU 'cousin'? It's very possible. Might the CSU go outside of Bavaria and campaign in one or two other states? Well.....there's no law preventing that. Could the CDU campaign in Bavaria? Nothing prevents that.
I come to the end of this odd scenario being played out. Outside influences? Well.....there's this whole argument about what you are going to do with the migration and immigration business, and the CSU thinks that nationally.....people want big steps taken. They might be willing to push this enough...dumping Merkel, and actually hurting both the CDU and SPD in another national election.
Let's add the scenario if the CSU wanted to run a 16-state election and go after CDU votes. I personally think it's a stupid scenario, but if the CDU has to run on some pro-asylum talk and it's not a topic that most CDU voters can vote upon....what happens then?
The Trump business and the trade episode brewing in the background? Well....yeah, that's another problem here.
I'll be honest....they really don't need another election because there's nothing much for either the CDU or SPD to gain in terms of votes, and building a coalition in this type of mess? Next to impossible.
It would be a harsh fall for Merkel to experience after all these epic performances.