The Price of Peace

 Odd story laying there this AM....probably 95-percent chance of BS....but the US is not having any luck in getting the Ukraine to peace talks.  Chief problems? Russia wants territory....the chunk of land that they currently occupy in SE Ukraine...mostly occupied before the war...by ethnic Ukraine-Russians.  Ukraine says 'NO'.

Adding to this...Russia wants a statement that NATO will never approve Ukraine's entry....which the US itself would be agreeable....but the EU says otherwise.

So the odd story goes to this 'end'....the US will just quit the talks...quit talking to Ukraine, and end 'support' (it's not clear if they mean cash-flow or military support).

So to  further complicate this odd story....European leaders are in talks...considering this idea of dumping $2.34 trillion in US bonds/debt if Trump abandons Ukraine.

How they'd dump the bonds....without seriously damaging their own economy?   Unknown.  You would see a massive US and Europe stock market drop.

I'm not really buying into this story....way too much BS.

I don't really buy into Italy or Germany taking this type of step....both are lightly stepping through a recession at present.  The UK leadership?  They might be this stupid. Macron of France has a finance/economics background....I can't see him this stupid.

I'll just add this final comment....were this to happen....the US would exit NATO (removing troops).  It might require a year....but they wouldn't maintain a presence.  For Russia...maybe this was the end-game strategy (since day one of the war). 

BSW Party Looking For A Recount?

 Why is BSW Pursuing a Vote Recount for the 2025 German Federal Election?

Well...the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) Party, a left-populist party founded in 2024 by former Left Party leader Sahra Wagenknecht...is aggressively challenging the results of Germany's 23 February 2025, federal election. The party narrowly missed the 5-percent national vote threshold required for Bundestag seats, securing only 4.981 percent.....a shortfall of about 9,529 votes. This failure excluded BSW from parliament despite strong regional support in eastern states like Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg, where it had won 11-16% in prior state elections.

So....is it serious?  

Isolated recounts in roughly 250 polling stations (North Rhine-Westphalia, Marzahn-Hellersdorf in Berlin) uncovered around 1,300 additional BSW votes per station. BSW estimates a full recount could add up to 30,000 votes, enough to cross 5-percent.

In polls....one out of three Germans say....yeah, go ahead and recount.

The court is up now....reviewing data, and will issue a ruling.

Problems?  If the recount occurs, and they find 10,000 votes....they have to be given seats in the Bundestag....but here is the bigger  issue.....the CDU-CSU and SPD coalition would NOT have sufficient numbers for their coalition.....Merz  would have to invite the Greens, or Linke,  or BSW to join as well.

If you thought things were rough now....go try to imagine a new and broader  coalition.  

The funny aspect?  Court orders a recount, and they find sufficient votes....plus 1....to force a new coalition. 

The Impending Decline Of The German Car Industry

I watched a piece off N-TV this AM....done by Wulf Stolle in "Der Spiegel."

The general end-results? Starting in 2035, car manufacturers in the EU will be prohibited from selling new conventional combustion engine vehicles (gas/diesel).  And the industry is giving a warning of a impending slump.

Added to the commentary.....China is overtaking Europe.

Yeah....it's a crappy period approaching for VW, Audi, BMW, Ford, Mercedes and Opel.

The push going on...to dump the 'ban'?  I would suggest it's a big deal for 2026/2027....with the Chancellor forced into a confrontation.

Steinmeier's Term (End)?

 Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD Party) was elected President of Germany on 12 February 2017, and took office on March 19, 2017, after his predecessor Joachim Gauck's term ended. 

He was re-elected on February 13, 2022, and began his second five-year term on March 19, 2022. 

By the German constitution (Article 55), each term lasts five years, so his current term ends on March 19, 2027.

In case  you were wondering the vote-process....it's by the Bundestag/Landestag...not a public vote.

Toward the end of 2026....a discussion will start up.  The CDU-CSU....is probably in a position where they want their guy/gal to win.  The SPD, Greens and Linke Party?  They can only mount a roughly 38-percent of the Bundestag votes.  Sadly....the CDU-CSU...can only get their candidate in position...if the AfD were to support them.  I wouldn't  expect that.

So the CDU-CSU...really need a compromise candidate....to get the SPD to support....or go clearly to a SPD-candidate (again).

If I were betting?  SPD-candidate....again....to win.

Four Humble Thoughts Over The Ukraine-Russia 'War'

1.  Warfare is permanently changed.  Anti-tank weapons and drones are the future.

2.  Russia on day one...was totally prepared to fight a 1960s/1970s tank war/invasion (like the Warsaw Pact strategy).   Ukraine said 'NO'....downsizing the modern inventory of tanks/APCs...by 90-plus percent.

3. If you can't manufacture replacement equipment....your strategy to 'win' is non-existent.

4.  Drafting some 'kid' and giving them four weeks of boot-camp/combat training....worked in 1914 and 1940....it no longer works today.

3 Nov 2025: Germany: 3 Things

 1.  German  police (this AM) arrested two suspected ISIS terrorists in Trier and Delbrück, the Federal Prosecutor General announced.

2. Saturday evening in Wiesbaden....at the Christmas market....around 7:30 PM (wife and I walked out around 7:10 PM)....some argument started up at a stall....maybe alcohol involved.  Two guys.....both early 20s....leads to a fight.  One pulls a tear-gas cannister on the other....dumps irritant on the guy....also two customers and two stall operators.  Police got called....ambulance required.

3.   Reported...30,000-plus cases in German emergency rooms...daily.  Highest level ever.

War Chatter

 Vladimir Putin warned today....that Russia is ready to go to war with all of Europe if that’s the path European leaders choose.

BS?  At some point....he spoke to the idea....that facing Europe would be nothing like fighting Ukraine.

If I were guessing.....he'd stage a missile attack (non-nuclear)...maybe forty in one evening...to scare the crap out of Europeans.

In 24 hours....realization would occur....no one in Europe is really ready for war.

Potential Ban On Private Fireworks?

 Interior Minister this week....has serious pressure to ban private  fireworks....31Dec2025.

Various groups supporting a ban.

If you asked me....it's a bit too late...grocery stores have already ordered and will be receiving their order shortly after Xmas.

Even if you ban them....you can cross the border into Poland/Hungry to buy there.

Q-and-A

 1. What's the political break-out currently of Germany?

Left-leaning (SPD, Linke, Green, BSW)....around 36-to-38 percent of polling.

Right-leaning (FDP, AfD,  CDU, CSU)....around 55-to-58 percent of polling.

Remaining numbers?  Split among 30-odd parties.

2.  State elections coming up in 2026?

Baden-Württemberg (8 Mar), Pfalz (22 Mar), Sachsen-Anhalt (6 Sep), Berlin (20 Sep), and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (20 Sep).

Of the five....Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Sachsen-Anhalt are probably the bigger play for AfD. CDU is the likely winners of Baden-Wurttemberg and the Pfalz.  SPD and  Linke likely to carry Berlin.

3.  What's this hype from BDI today?

BDI is the umbrella organization of German industry and industry-related service providers.  They put out a statement....industry in Germany is crippled-up....serious condition....serious things need to occur.

4. Odds of a end to the Ukraine-Russia war?

Presently....I give it less than a 20-percent chance.

Ukraine has zero desire to give up territory.  

5. Did the EU Transport Commissioner say they are "open to all technologies?"

Yeah, he basically said....if you had some gas/diesel tech stuff....that changed things....they'd dump the ban of gas/diesel new cars in 2035.

Some hybrid-tech likely to be shown....with a smaller gas/diesel engine (say a 1.0-size?).....might be the resolution. BMW already has a .65L size engine.  Mazda has a .83L rotary engine in development. 

Vax Story

Back in June of 2021....there was this story of a German man from Magdeburg (in Saxony-Anhalt)....that got into the German news....who'd had multiple Covid-19 vaccinations.

Originally....it looked like the guy had taken 30-odd vaccinations....for himself, and other people (to get people good documentation that they were 'safe', but highly illegal).

About a month into the story....the news folks dropped the story....without much explanation.

I started digging a month ago, and the rest of the story stood out.

All total....the guy (62 years old) took 219 vaccination shots.

Yeah, he was investigated for possibly selling vax-certificates in 2022.....but that fell apart....no charges.

 Yeah....researchers from the Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg (in Bavaria) did study his immune response using blood/saliva samples.  No side-effects.

The guy being overly concerned with being safe from Covid? Well....yeah. It would be interesting to review his news content.

Age group falling into this story? Germany had a priority listing....starting in late December 2020....the 90-and-over crowd, with the medical folks were top priority for the first 2 months. That age-60-crowd?  They fell into play around late March.  So from late March to June....219 shots....figure 3 shots per day.

My question?  Are there others like him?

1 Dec 2026: Germany: 4 Things

 1.  New documentary movie coming out..."Now,  Where To?".....detailing the 2025 German federal election, and the Green Party disaster....laying the primary blame onto Germans who 'hate' the  Green Party agenda.

Reading the WELT story....over a thousand folks adding commentary..

In rough numbers....looking 3.5 years into the past....the Greens lost about 40-percent of voters. The agenda....was crap.

2.  Police union officials had a lot of criticism over protests held in Giessen....lot of police injured.

Key point....the anti-AfD protest was not approved by the city/authorities.

3.  Geely....new lux-E-car brand from China....to  be sold in Germany.  Comes with 8-year battery warranty.

4.  Bar inspection in Berlin was to be carried out....four police.  Fight starts up...the four police were injured enough to be sent off-duty.

Explaining The Deportation 'Dilemma'

While the AfD Party states a highly priority to exercise deportations.....'how' remains unanswered.

As of July 2025 (the most recent publicly available data from the German Federal Ministry of the Interior), approximately 220,800 people are living in Germany without an official residence permit and are subject to deportation obligations. 

This includes 178,512 individuals with a "Duldung" (tolerated stay), where deportation is temporarily suspended due to legal, humanitarian, or practical reasons (lack of travel documents/passports, medical issues, or ongoing education).

On top of that....42,296 individuals without even a tolerated stay, meaning they are fully obligated to leave but have not yet done so.

The feds are not part of the system.....it's a state-by-state effort. So they arrange a plane....figure around 28 deportees with papers finally....who are escorted/flown with roughly 40 police....to their country (forcibly).

AfD has never clearly said how they would resolve this.

Presently, with the improved relationship with Afghanistan....it's possible that a 'deal' might be worked out with higher numbers sent home. But even in the wildest of scenarios....with the AfD in power....it's hard to see more than 10,000 per year being physically deported.

Core Issues With The German Retirement System?

The German pension system is in severe demographic crisis combined with a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) structure that is extremely vulnerable to an aging and shrinking population.

Just for the  record....Germany has one of the lowest fertility rates in Europe (currently ~1.3–1.4 children per woman).

In 1990 there were about 4 workers per retiree. Today it’s roughly 2.3, and by 2040–2050 it is projected to fall lower....to roughly 1.5 or even 1.3 workers per pensioner (this came from the Statistisches Bundesamt and EU Ageing Report 2024).

The current Pay-As-You-Go System?  Almost the entire public pension (Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung) is financed by current workers’ contributions (18.6-percent of gross wage, split 50/50 between employee and employer).

There  is already in some form....a count-down-calendar....where the contributor-to-retiree ratio collapses. That means that contributions must rise dramatically, or that pensions have to be cut, or that the federal budget (taxes) must subsidize the gap.  

So, in some fashion....all three have started in some minor form.

Political fixes?  Well....raising the retirement age beyond the current gradual increase to 67 (and possibly to 68–70 in the future) apparently doesn't sell well.

Going to private or occupational pensions?  Some Germans would buy into this idea.    But only about half of workers have any meaningful supplementary coverage, and even then the amounts are modest (figure roughly 2,000 to 3,000  Euro a year....on top of your current pension).

Yeah.....Germany built a generous pension system for a young, growing population in the 1960s–1980s. But that population no longer exists.

Most experts agree the current model is unsustainable after 2030 without either drastic contribution/tax increases or significant benefit cuts.

I should add here....lot of younger Germans complaining that fixes seem to revolve  around them taking up the burden of thing.