The Arena-Show From Monday Night

ARD ran a forum (live) show last night....with SPD's Lars Klingbeil.

I watched probably around 25 minutes of it.  Two obvious notes:

First, Lars wore a suit, and was sweating at 200-percent....it was literally dripping off his head....onto the suit, and as much as he could wipe.....it just continued on, and on.

I felt sorry for the guy.  The studio was definitely not air conditioned.

Second, at some point....an older gal asked a question about the incoming migration folks, and if we really needed migrant-bus-drivers from South Africa or care-givers from the Philippines.

I paused over it....it was a blunt question.

So....if you go to any urban area (Bremen, Hamburg, Munich, Frankfurt, Erfurt, etc)....they have a shortage of bus-drivers.  If you go back five or six years ago....the bus companies made up for the problem by recruiting  French, Spanish and Greek drivers.  You came in....showing you could speak some German...had a license....and had a 3-to-6 month contract.....while staying in a hotel locally (paid by the bus company).

Inability of the cities to attract drivers locally?  Well....yeah.

Part of the blame is shift-work....part is the pay-scale.  

Care-givers the same way?  Yeah.  I went to a German  class in 2016....Czech gal....was offered a pretty heft pay-situation (in her mind) to work at a local retiree-home in Wiesbaden.  But she had to speak at  x-level for the job.

Again....same deal....shift-work, and limited pay-scale.

9 June 2026: Germany: 5 Stories

 1.  Last year.....about this time....my wife and I got a info sheet....a 'company' (leaving out their name) had won the contract to supply the village with fiber-optic (upgrade). They would dig up the pavement....lay the new fiber....arrive in person in spring 2026....deliver a new router, and hook us up.

Ok.....so the crew in the fall of 2025 started digging.  Oddly, they were all Albanian.  There were various issues but they eventually completed the fiber project.

Turning this on and delivering the router?  Well....delayed.

So yesterday....I was reading through news, and this odd topic came up.  The fiber company, the installation crew company (the Albanians), and several associate companies....under some fed investigation here in the region.  Cronyism and 'deals' accusation.

The odds that the new fiber deal will get turned on in 2026?  I'd say zero.  The original 'winner' of the contract....getting to keep the contract?  Unknown.  The unknowns settled by the end of 2027?  Well....unknown.

2.  Björn Höcke (the 'evil' AfD politician)....gave a speech over the weekend.  He basically went and said that West Germans are "German-speaking Americans."  

In his reality several million people in the East of Germany.....are "still Germans."

Naturally, I went to the German wife....asking her (originally a Hessen and  West German)....if she had become Americanized.  This spun her up.....probably was the wrong question to ask.

Now, if you were asking me (the American).....if western Germans were Americanized?  I'd say that the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s....Germans themselves had laid out a path for Germans where various American 'things' had been inserted into German society, and in urbanized areas (like Hamburg, Frankfurt, Mainz, Wiesbaden, Koln)....yeah....folks had been conditioned in some ways to be German-Americans.

Eastern Germans saved from this terrible 'suffering'?  I assume Björn Höcke believes that.

If Germans believed this idea?  Well....they'd have to purify themselves....get 'cleaned-up', and revert back to the German condition of the 1920s or prior.  Pretty confusing, if you asked me.

3.  I did watch the 45-minute piece of ARD last night....'The WM Cup in Trump's America'.

I'll just say....it was confusing.

If you were trying to get some World Cup insight.....it was marginal.

If you were trying to understand sports content in America....it was marginal.

If you were trying to get hyped-up (more-so) on anti-Trump stuff....well....you might have a dose.

They did about 10 minutes of Ultimate-Fighting chatter.....acting like it only occurs in the US.  I was shaking my head....UFC is German based as well....these two journalists obviously lack German sports knowledge.

4.  WELT piece: Study done.....German public support for 'queer' people on the decline.

I sat and pondered over this. If you were asking me on German sentiment....they frankly don't care. If you want to be into weird/kinky stuff....just do it and don't make a theatrical show out of it.

5.  Oddly, Russia is suffering through a gas/diesel fuel shortage.  You line up at a station, and figure an  hour minimum waiting.  

If On Welfare/Burgergeld In Germany, Do You Have To Report Income From Picking Up Bottles?

 If you walk around urban zones in Germany on an average day....you probably will notice a minimum of forty folks....looking for cans/bottles.  Finding some....they will supplement their 'lifestyle'.

Average?  Super-aggressive types...on a four-hour walk....might collect 40 Euro for a week.  Most folks....probably get in the range of ten to fifteen Euro a week.

So the social office will ask about 'extra' income, and if you were truthful....you might find a rule in place....which generally states....anything that amounts to over fifty Euro a month....detracts that amount from your next month's welfare check.

This came up recently in Hamburg, with a 75-year-old German guy admitting in the range of 58.25 Euro for a month.  I guess the guy was overly 'honest'.

Couple of years ago....some news group followed a guy and his teenage son....who had a particular route through a soccer stadium area and downtown section.....who had several bags.  They had over 200 Euro  for the day in collections.

8 June 2026: Germany: 3 Stories

 1.  Via the ARD public forum show last night (Miosga)....question came up to  Bärbel Bas (SPD, Minister of Labor)....how exactly can the taxation/social pension program carry the 'weight'  to produce....Bas more or less responds....the older generation and women will likely have to carry the burden (not young migrant guys).

This is an odd argument that you continually these day....with stagnation, Germany is not functioning like it was 20-to-30 years ago.

2.  Noted this story over in eastern Germany.....Cops in Großziethen (Dahme-Spreewald) came across a 6-year old boy....traveling alone on an e-scooter.  Problem is....no license plate....no insurance....unaccompanied.  I doubt that the kid knew the law.

3.  I watched the US-Germany soccer game on Saturday evening....Germany won 2-1.  I have to say....Germany was not dominating the game.  If this is the style of the team for 2026....they won't be in the final four.

What Exactly Is The Scandal That Jens Spahn Can Never Escape From?

 CDU politician Jens Spahn up until the Covid era....was probably everyone's top five list for the right-of-center party.  In Merkel's last coalition....he was given the lite-duty of Health Minister.  

So as Covid arrived....there was this funny path for protective masks....where originally....THE expert (medical-virus guy....not Spahn) said masks weren't going to be necessary.  About six weeks later....the authorities determined masks  were necessary.

This problem erupted (I saw it approaching 6 weeks prior).....they (the commercial reality) simply did NOT have sufficient masks on hand....to meet the requirement.

Spahn went and did something fairly stupid....he put up a requirement for masks....without signed contracts or a clear understanding of the business-world.

Plane-loads of masks slowly began to arrive....on top of what stores/pharmacies ordered.

What you started to notice....the gov't  pallets....weren't really  planned out well....so they started to store them in military-storage.....then it got into overflow situation.  Quality?  Well....that was hit-and-miss.  Some Chinese masks were correct....some were crap.

By the time Covid had ended....Spahn's mess to clean up....added up to around  8-to-10 billion Euro.

Yeah....because of poor management....legal matters started up.   Best guess currently....around 100-million Euro in legal costs have been put upon the gov't.

Spahn's fault?  I don't think he ever understood the logistical side of the issue. Even if you quizzed the forty-odd staff members around him....I don't think nothing more than strictly virus-experts...not med-parts experts.

If you were to explain to the public....how ten-odd billion was spent....they'd start laughing. 

Where the masks are today?  I suspect....still in some military storage bunker. 

Firing Story

 This past week....ZDF (Channel 2 of public TV in Germany) did a news piece with a employee of the Bremen Job-Center (the folks who approve/disapprove your welfare pay-situation).

He'd been in the job for around 20 years.

So he said in a blunt way.....on his personal belief....around 30 to 40 percent of folks in  Bremen were approved for welfare/burgergeld....were capable of working and in some way....should have been 'pushed'.

Well...after the TV episode....management at the Bremen Job-Center got peeved, and have terminated the guy.

I would imagine that there's going  to be a rough reality for the judge who reviews the firing....with him likely admitting the guy is correct, and probably across all of Germany....the 30-to-40 percent number holds true.

Poll Reality

 INSA did a political poll.

So...it's an odd thing.  AfD would win  with 29-percent of the public vote in Germany, but be unable to get a partnership coalition. CDU-CSU in 2nd place with 21-percent.

SPD?  With 12-percent.  Greens with 14-percent.  Linke with 11-percent.

BSW and FDP?  Still at 3-percent.....thus getting no seats.

The 'Other' People

 Some lefty-party member of the Bundestag....stood up yesterday and admitted....in just four years of 'service' in the Bundestag....a member  could make what takes a normal German three decades to accumulate such 'wealth'.

I paused over the chatter.

First, living in Berlin is awful damn expensive.  For a plate of something that I'd  pay 12 Euro in Mainz for....you'd have to pay near 16 Euro in Berlin.

Second, it just seems to me....working around Bundestag folks....you have to accept a certain amount of stupidity and you ought to be paid more  for this type of situation.

Third and final....I suspect if you asked a hundred Germans if they'd take up a Bundestag job....probably 95-percent would say no.....claiming they don't have patience to do BS-work.

I'm now waiting for the lefty-member to get a EU job, and suggest the same problem there.

Q-and-A:

 1.  Has the peak of Russia come and gone?

All things considered....economically....2019 (before Covid/the War)...was the peak, and they will likely never cross that line ever again.

I read this past week....a key bank in Russia wants to be a middle-man....bringing in tens of thousands of Indians....as physical manpower for Russian infrastructure projects.  It might start....but they got no money (meaning the gov't)....so it's mostly BS.

2. Is the SPD Party (used to be called the 'party-of-the-people') evolving into some academic 'brain-trust' party?

Focus wrote up a piece (by Jan Fleischhauer)....suggesting this.  Polling mostly indicates the party can marginally reach to 12-to-14 percent of the public.  It would beg the question....who would replace them.

3.  What's with the grocery 'strike'?

Well....if you count up grocery brands in central Germany....it's around a dozen brands that folks recognize. Around nine of them  are organized into a union,  and want a salary raise.  So yesterday (Friday) and today....if you were attempting to  grocery shop....you'd find a closed business.

I reviewed what they want, and the key thing....is a 250-Euro pay-raise per month. 

I asked the wife....if forced to pay it....won't our grocery prices rapidly escalate?  She did the numbers in  her head (Einstein-like) and suggested that we'd have to find another 100-to-120 Euro a month....to cover the situation.

4.  This ARD-World Cup news-documentary piece....just weird?

To lay this out....the chief news guy for ARD, with two others....are traveling into the US for the games, and trying to tell a non-World Cup set of stories....about the folks who oppose President Trump. 

I watched a brief introduction, and just started laughing.  The German World Cup enthusiast....mostly guys....won't waste a single minute watching this. It's developed more for the non-sports viewer (mostly women)....to keep them engaged in their hatred-passion. 

6 June 2026: Germany: 5 Things

 1.  This Germany-UN-Seat Drama?

For a couple of years....Germany has been on some weird trend.....desperately waiting for this vote and expecting to get a seat on the top Security Council. In the midst of this....they even paid more  on 'dues' (roughly 3-to-4 billion Euro) to impress folks.  Well....it failed. 

So....my impression?  If you asked folks....around 80-percent of population would say it's not in their top 500 priorities.  Same crowd would say it gets you 'nothing'....if you held a seat. Probably 50-percent of folks are asking now.....you really went and gave them 3-billion Euro of free money?

The odd remainder?  Well....the intellectual folks want to talk over the drama and find the blame. The five things I hear?  Blame Putin.   Blame support for Israel.  Blame Trump.  Blame China.

If you ask me....I think they acted like 12-year-old kids the past couple of years.....hinting always on the vote, and they deserve to be voted 'in'.  

2.  Timmy-the-lady-whale-update.

Autopsy wrapped up.  Experts say they can't find a cause of death. Other than building a statue for Timmy....I  think the saga is finished.

3.  US says it'll stop sale of Tomahawk missiles to Germany.  Chief reason?  Well....Putin says it's a threat.

4.  Germany talking over regulating the entry of Ukrainian men into Germany....suggesting that they should stay at home and fight.

5. US gave NATO a list of asset which are 'leaving' Europe shortly (downsizing):

 - Currently 99 F-16 multi-purpose fighters in Europe, 63 will remain.  Currently 54 F-15E heavy fighter-bombers, 36 will remain.  They don't say which bases are affected....but would only come from Aviano, Spang,  and Lakenheath.  

- All long-range reconnaissance drones from Europe to leave. In addition, the number of MQ-9 strike UAVs will be halved.

- Naval?  The number of cruisers and destroyers will be cut in half. Submarine carriers of cruise missiles will be completely withdrawn. 

- Bomber deployments....temp stationing in the UK?  To end, period.

How quick?  Wording hinted at a couple of weeks for some....up to six months max.

The Decline of Germany Connected To Deindustrialization?

 Deindustrialization in Germany didn't start in recent years....it probably goes back to 1990s, with each year....presenting a 'step'.

Defining it?  The decline in German manufacturing output, employment, and global competitiveness, particularly in energy-intensive sectors like chemicals, steel, glass, and autos......was more prevalent than a complete collapse of industry. 

This 'path' taken....while having deep roots....simply accelerated dramatically due to a combination of policy choices, geopolitical shocks, and structural pressures. And no....while some is just plain bad luck....some of the 'step's' were planned.

I would suggest that things took off around 2010-to-2015 with warning signs emerging.....rising competition from China.....slow digitalization.....high labor/regulatory costs, and infrastructure gaps. 

The Russian natural gas mess, and Covid?   They simply speeded-up the process.

Where things emerge in ten years (say 2035)?  Survival mode will kick in, and I predict around 500,000 to 1-million Germans a year will be exiting....to countries with less issues. 

The key point?  Within three-to-four years....one of the major car-brands of Germany will either shut-down, or exit Germany. At that point, the clock starts to tick.  Might be Opel....might be VW.....might even be Porsche.

Change In Law Coming?

 I noted this AM....Saxony's Minister of Justice wants to advocate for the abolition of the criminal offense of insulting politicians. 

To get the job done....the Conference of Ministers of Justice (national group) is to pass a corresponding resolution next week and present it to the Federal Minister of Justice.

Why?

Well....a couple of months ago....some Germans using social media....called a certain German politician (thin-skinned type)....a liar.  More or less....they suggested he promised 'X', and had yet to deliver.

This guy went to the legal system....using current laws, and took the chatty folks (using the word 'liar') into court.   Result....guilty....one month's salary taken as the 'fee'.

This has (in the  past month) gotten a lot of attention, and even the AfD Party has focused upon this....saying it's not right.

What you can say...presently?  You could wish that so-and-so would tell the truth more often, or just wish politicians would avoid talking/BSing.   But  to call them a liar.....no, that gets you into court-woes.

Is German Urban Culture Dying?

There is this odd desolation of German city centers going on....where you get the feeling that 'something' is dying/dissolving....and mostly replaced by dreariness and barrenness.

Around the late 1990s....walking through Kaiserslautern, Mainz and Wiesbaden....I started to notice little things....where store-fronts were closed....big-name shops were being replaced, and less people were noted.

Year by year....the barrenness expands.

Less money part of this spiral?  I would suggest that the working-class Germans over the past two generations....have less to really spend, and staying home as much as possible....is a realistic goal now.

There is particular store-front in Wiesbaden....where if you count since 2019....there's been four different attempts to 'plant' a commercial operation....with each failing.  Last month, I noticed the fifth attempt to start up.

Swiss Pool Policy Unfolding

 Summer has arrived....pools opening in Switzerland

So....if you a Swiss citizen....you pay a standard entry fee.

If you are a non-Swiss person (mostly meaning French).....you pay double.

This policy addresses repeated incidents of sexual harassment of young Swiss women, aggression, and pool rule violations mainly by groups of young French visitors crossing the nearby border when French pools closed.

Why did the French pools close? Well....too much bad-boy crap.

Swiss support of the policy?  Oddly.....it appears that 90-plus percent of Swiss think it's the right thing to do.

Note, the Swiss 'Green-card' folks are safe....it seems to be mostly the  French 'kids' who are aggressive. 

4 June 2026: Germany; 6 Things

 1. Poll done....by Wahlen.  Topic....how is the economy of Germany doing?

Results?  Crap....40-percent.  Marginally positive....45-percent. Good....13-percent. Very good.....ZERO-percent.

The last time they did this same poll (Jan 2026).....1-percent said 'very good', and a majority said 'good'.

Yeah.....the general  sentiment in Germany is  that something is broke...economically.

2.  Vote came up yesterday at the UN....to  give Germany a 'seat' on the council.  The Germans were convinced....they'd cleared all the hurdles, and made folks happy....to earn a vote.  Well....Portugal and Austria got the vote....Germany failed.

Watching the news folks on ARD/ZDF tell this story last night....I felt like it was a kid's argument at the playground....where they felt they'd been nice to everyone...earning something.

3. Some rumor/BS.....started up....Greens wanting to get support for the President election in January 2027....to replace Frank-Walter Steinmeier with Annalena Baerbock.  

Some chatter indicating that the position ought to be for a female.

4.   WELT article this AM.....exodus of high-wage-earners of Germany being noticed.

5.  Now costs 12 Euro (per person) to enter the  Koln Cathedral.  

6. I watched a podcast where the topic of  Russian reservists came up (they were being activated).  So the letter told the guy what to bring....listing around a dozen items.

On  the list....toilet paper (fair amount), soap, shampoo, long-thermal underwear, and so on.  Basically....the Army wasn't in a position to issue anything.

July 1977.....I asked the Air Force recruiter on what to bring.  Gym bag....two changes  of clothing,  $40, tooth-brush/tooth-paste.  That was it. Second day at bootcamp....they issued around $100,  and led us to a BX.

The 5,000 Pound Guerrilla In The Room

I noticed today....several news stories talking of  a money-pit now existing with the Germany Federal Employment Agency (BA).

So....the basic story.....BA now faces a worse-than-expected cash shortfall for 2026....we are talking with a deficit projected at over 5 billion Euro....perhaps on up to 8 billion.

Cause?  Well.....higher unemployment and a weaken economy.

So....there's got to be a new  tax revenue 'path' created.

Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil.....I suspect....has probably a group working on this, and after summer vacation....will deliver a  fairly big new tax project.

The bad news.....this is purely to cover 2026.....then you get into 2027, and 2028....unless some miracle occurs....will require increased tax revenue as well.

What kind of harsh taxation is coming?  Anyone's guess.  

The problem here....is that Merz and his 'team' (the CDU-CSU).....were  voted  in to correct the economy....get things stabilized, and avoid unnecessarily inflating taxation.  

So if a new Chancellor is the 'solution'....with more taxes coming....don't go expecting the economy to improve.  Early election.....my bet. 

How To Simplify The Chancellor Exit-Issue

 Soccer scenario.

X-city has a losing record for their  team....so they scouted for a new coach.  They (the executive committee) hired Coach Merz. They hired this guy because he had a strategy for  'winning', bringing the economy back, and ensuring jobs.

But at this shift in manpower....the team hired assistant coaches (SPD) who were not tuned into Coach Merz's strategy.  The assistant coaches gave priority to cities in debt, reform, higher benefits, and more taxes.

About 18 months into Coach Merz's contract....it's obvious that the team is 50-50.....not really winning....not really losing.

Disgruntled....they are discussing now the dismissal of Coach Merz....to bring either Coach Hendrik Wüst....who seems to be more of a intellectual coach....not really a economics coach.  The other choice is Coach Markus Söder....who might be slightly into economics more than than the other guy.

Whoever they hire as coach....he's left with the assistant coaches who aren't reading his strategy or notes......likely to mean 12-to-18 months of 50-50 play, and the city feeling disgruntled.

Added note:  Well....rumors started up....that the CSU (a sister party of the CDU and ONLY in Bavaria)....is open to the idea of teaming up with the Freie Wahler (Free  Voters Party).....to campaign across the 15 other states.  The two slightly more conservatives than the CDU?  Yeah.

Anyone's guess that the two might take votes away from the CDU and alienate the CDU-CSU relationship greatly.  

My thoughts?  Having the CSU-FW Party nationwide?  They'd probably take 50-percent of CDU votes.....meaning a national poll situation (CSU-FW near 10-percent and CDU nationally near 10-to-12) percent).

Dividing the nation even more?  Yeah.

BS strategy?  Maybe....but the question is....has the CDU dug itself a mighty big hole and can't climb out presently?

Poverty Numbers

 Germany's poverty rate rose to a record high for 2025....of 16.1-percent.....meaning that 13.3 million folks are classified as poor.

This  will  be discussed a good bit, but the question is....how can either the CDU-CSU or SPD....resolve  this?

Left out of this?   Well....you  have to wonder from the  13.3-million....how many were working-class poor....meaning they marginally make enough....even with a job.

Giving them more 'free' money?  It'd mean you have to raise taxes, and hope that 'free' money would resolve the poverty-status (it rarely works).

Eight Observations Over Where German Politics Is Headed

 1.  I'd give the Chancellor-swap-out situation occurring by  late fall....near a 75-percent chance of occurring.

There's no scandal brewing....I'd describe simply like a soccer team which ought to be in first-place, but the coach can't seem to get things lined up, and the team is mostly at a 50-50 situation.  So the idea of dumping the coach....pops up daily.

2. Was Merz hired to be the guy to bring economic stability into focus?

Yes.....but nothing much has been delivered.

3. Isn't most of the negativity in economic sense....all leading back to the anti-nuke-energy, anti-coal-energy, hefty cost of power, cut-off from Russian natural gas, etc?

This is a twenty-plus year 'path'....designed into weird way to diminish jobs and lessen the economic strength of Germany.

4.  Even if they replace the Chancellor at this point....is there any real plus-up for the new guy?

I would offer the opinion....NO. He (whoever is selected by the party)....is linked to the SPD coalition, and not able to evolve into a better situation.  I'd say within 12 months....coalition-collapse is possible, and a fresh new election likely by the fall  of 2027.

5. In terms of state-elections,  and likely AfD 'wins'....aren't CDU-likely voters likely to be disenchanted with coalitions where the CDU teams with the Linke Party?

If I were a CDU-conservative-voter, and you posed the 'fix' to be a CDU-led state gov't where they are partnering with the Linke folks....I'd probably stay home (not vote),  or ask if things are bad enough for me to vote AfD.  Humble guess: one out  of three CDU-voters probably would feel this way.

6.   The 'hot'  topic toward Sep/Oct.....who replaces the President (Frank-Walter Steinmeier, SPD).  His term ends in early 2027.  I'm betting that the SPD works hard to ensure their  pick 'wins'.

7. The term 'REFORM' probably gets  hyped by the two public TV networks....at least forty times a day now.

8. Is it just odd...the polling for the left-of-center SPD.....at 12-to-13 percent?

You have four parties that fall into the left-of-center mentality.....each with a different brand.

2 June 2026: Germany: 6 Things

 1.  I spent the weekend in Frankfurt (concert). One negative.....you exit the train and walk around the Bahnhof....you know that you are in the midst of a drug 'den'. Stepping out outside and walking a half-block to the tram....I probably observed forty druggies over a 2-minute period.

2.EU say it'll ban single-use plastic packets for ketchup and other condiments.  Your only choice?  Use shared bottles or refillable dispensers.

They really didn't need to micro-manage this BS.

3.  German federal police say....for  2025....27,818 violent crimes in the railway sector were reported.  Leipzig and Dortmund are at top of the statistics.

4. It would appear that Boris Pistorius's (Defense Minister) general decree lifting the regulation requiring men between 18 and 45 years old to obtain an exit permit if they wish to leave Germany for an extended period/vacation....has been deemed legally invalid.

Def-Minister does NOT have this power.  

So....in theory, the Bundestag would have to invent a 'power' and pass the measure, or just pretend there's no need for a waiver.

5.  German woman entering the country from Switzerland...in a van....with 55 suitcases.  Audit-check conducted by the police. They didn't believe her story.

She claimed all were her personal clothing. They x-rayed all 55....yep, they were clothes.    

6.  GMS (poll service) did a poll....shows that FDP has gained 2 points....up to five-percent of Germans would vote for them.

Mostly took voters from CDU and SPD.

Q-and-A: Three Things

 1.  Is the general public kinda demanding a switch-out on Chancellors in Germany?

I'd say for 6 months....majority (probably up to 60-to-70 percent) feel that Merz can't get the job done....meaning fixing the economy and saving jobs.

The leading CDU replacement (within the party)?  Well....if he is selected and this replacement occurs....I'd give this guy 6 months before he's led to the door and finished off.

There's simply not any bright 'star'.

2.  State elections in Germany stating to matter?

I'd say over the next 18 months...it's a big deal.  

3.  All this crap from the 'end' of the Scholz SPD-led coalition....lighting the fire to this dismal trend?

You can make this connection.....but there's a trend going on for the economy...over 30 years of decisions....where bad decisions were made, and  led to consequences.