There's probably three or four scenarios where numbers reach a point, and the coalition collapses in some way, with Merz exiting.
If you asked me the next most likely candidates?
Defense Minister Boris Pistorius of SPD ranks near the top, but the SPD is barely at 16-percent.
Lars Klingbeil of the SPD....might be in this group....but again....the SPD has numbers problems.
As for the CDU-CSU? Markus Söder (Bavaria's PM) and Jens Spahn.
If the SPD could move up into the 20-to-25 percent range....Pistorius would likely be the best replacement guy.
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