My humble thoughts.....very unlikely for remainder of 2026. I'm likely to believe if you were forcing it....there's 3 state elections in mid-April....where the SPD probably will get more votes than the CDU.
It might be a strategy to exist....gaming the system now....to get more state votes and show a 'trend'.
In this strategy....you collapse the gov't and gear a nat'l election in two months.
Timing? I would NOT do it (collapsing) any later than mid-December....forcing the election end of Feb.
Candidates? I really can't think of any SPD person who'd hype it big-time. If you asked best scenario....someone might drag the 'lame-horse-SPD-guy' up around 17-to-18 percent max (hoping the Greens aren't do any better).
CDU? It won't be Merz...more likely to Premier-President Wust/Soder. I don't see either getting the CDU-CSU to any point better than 22-percent.
Win by AfD, but unable to form a coalition? Yeah....that's most likely scenario.
Any big advantages for snap-election now? Other than the 3 state elections or the France election in April/May....there's no real reason to hype it.
Final word? Having a snap-election now.....probably leads to a 2028 snap-election again. Fairly weak gov't....no matter who is in charge.
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