Three Political Predictions (For Germany)

 1.  January leadership meeting for SPD (left-of-center)....results in Manuela Schwesig (current Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) as new party 'boss'.

She'll find some brief path for numbers bumping up for the SPD....from current 14-percent to 18-percent....taking votes primarily from Greens/Linke Party.

I'm not saying SPD has a win-factor (AfD will have near 28-percent on polling), but AfD can't get a coalition gov't formed, and the CDU-CSU folks are weakened enough to be in third-place.

2.  Within 4 months, Merz's coalition gov't collapses.  SPD will see the CDU at their weakest point since 1945.  Oddly, this weakness problem will extend to Bavaria....with the CSU harmed by the national CDU strategy.

3.  Finally, I think starting around the last day or two of October....the French riots will start up in Germany, and prove to be a public safety problem over the entire month of November.  Merz has limited ability to halt the riot-damage.  Some odd blame will be centered on Putin/Russia....suggesting they hyped the riot crowd.