Boris Palmer Still In The News

 Next Sunday (23rd) will be the city mayor election in Tubingen, B-W, Germany.

It's a bit of a unusual election.  Boris Palmer (current mayor) was sort of kicked out of the Green Party in the past year.  The party didn't like his positions on things, and felt he was 'beatable'.  

Presently, around 23 candidates are listed for the election.....with only six being given 'odds'.

What's funny here?  Boris Palmer is running as a non-party guy....in this election.  The Green Party replacement guy?  Right now....is polling around 15-percent.  Boris Palmer?  Polling around 53-percent.  Giesel for the SPD?  He is polling near 20-percent.  

If Palmer wins (especially with 50-plus percent of the vote)?  It says a lot about how locals feel about the guy, his blunt truth, and the positions he's taken....some Green Party related....some being conservative in nature.  

The odd thing....I think in the Baden-Wurttemberg state.....Palmer could probably run a state election theme, and might be able to take one-third of the state votes....if he just had his own 'party'.

Green Party shaking their heads over this?  I would imagine they are frustrated on how Palmer remains a public figure, and half the city wants the guy to remain as mayor.  

Obituary Story

 Focus published this story in the AM today.

Last week, there was an obituary for a Moscow city administration guy (actual chief of some department).

Alexey Martynov (28 years old) had died.

So, some bits and pieces came out about Alexey.  Back on the 23rd of September....he was a reservist who'd been activated for the Putin 'war'.

A few days after that, he was uniformed-up and sent to the Ukraine.  He died on the 10th of October (figure two weeks of duty before he was killed).

Once the obituary came out.....various guys who were in the age group affected by the present call, or possibly for the future call....packed up and left.  I'm talking about city employees.....the IT folks, the city water department, sanitation, plans, etc.  

These weren't the people who were called the duty, but if there were future 'calls' or a secondary phase.....they weren't going to sit around and wait.

What this generally means?  Well....numbers aren't discussed, but I would assume in the first wave of the obituary period....there's probably a couple hundred guys from Moscow who left, and by November....you might be talking about several thousand.  These aren't grocery-clerk folks.....they are a key component of city operations.  Without them....the city doesn't effectively function.  

How long before the mayor or city council get worried?  I would imagine each morning now, they do a head-count, and try to assure folks that things are 'safe' for the time being.   Skeptical nature?  I'd say that people are looking at reality and just trying to figure the vast landscape.

A halt to all obituary notices?  Yeah....you probably won't see a single name mentioned unless it's women, or old guys.

Preaching To The Audience

 For the next couple of days, I'm going on harp on 'problems' and 'solutions'.....which you see a lot of examples of this.....on the German news networks, and it's to the level that it feels like 5th grade kids trying to resolve a national crisis.

A good quote here, by Martin Luther King: 

"All progress is precarious, and the solution of one problem brings us face to face with another problem."

Around twenty years ago in Germany....the Bundestag decided that welfare was crapped-out and going to become a national budget crisis.....so they invented 'Hartz IV'.....which was a reformed welfare program....which was going to fix everything.

In various ways, it simply led to the next problem.....that welfare was a 'doom-and-gloom' mess and probably 20-percent of the German public was going to deal with a even bigger mess than what existed prior to 2000.  

We progress now to the newest gimmick....Citizens Money (Burgergeld).  Same type situation....maybe a little more cash, and ease of proof that you are doing bad-offf. 

Covid?  Same way.  This natural gas crisis?  Same issue.  Electrical blackout crisis?  Same way. 

It's almost nightly now that you feel a problem coming up, and the resolution will merely lead onto a newer version of the problem....maybe next year....maybe in three years.  

Problems and Solutions Essay

 "At the heart of the social vision prevalent, among contemporary intellectuals, is the belief that there are problems.....and there are solutions."

-- Thomas Sowell

This is one of those forty-odd quotes that I tend to rank among wise thoughts, and being fairly important to remember.....when in a moment of chaos or turmoil.

Germans do this a lot in public forums....insisting that for every problem, there's going to be a solution.  If you sat and asked a few questions....you'd find that there might be well over a hundred solutions to a problem, then realize that each one had a financial cost/pain, a fairly decent risk of failure, and on the complications scale....represent a 'wreck' in slow-motion.

A couple of years ago....I watched some TV chat where there was an 'insisted' problem, and they had one single solution....which seemed to involve re-distributing cash-flow.  In the mind of the moderator....there was no cheap or zero-thrills solution.

Over the past hundred-odd days, with all the natural gas and escalating prices chatter going on....I see a good bit of intellectual wisdom dispersed, and it begs questions over how effective the solution might really be.  

This becoming a problem on my skeptical 'meter'?  Well....yeah.  I can't readily trust the 'problem' or the 'solution'.....when laid out.  

The public waking up and asking the same questions?  You see this almost daily now.....with trust lacking more and more.

Four German News Stories

 1.  Focus reports....at a Russian military site (on Russian soil, but near the Ukrainian border)....two Ukrainians came up and killed 11 Russian conscripts (wounding 15 others).  

BS factor?  Well....I'd rate it a '8'.  Might be an attack and forty Russians dead.   This is the Russian version of the story and you doubt what happened.

2.  Newly deployed Russian reservists getting body armor?  NO.

Again, via Focus....the story goes that the logistics system is so crapped out....that the new guys have to go on the open market to buy their gear....with prices now tripling in nature.

3.  One of the side-stories in WELT this AM is the chatter from the Bavarian Premier-President (Soder, CSU)....talking of the idea of having air defense systems deployed around major cities of Germany.  He's not quiet saying an attack is potentially there....but he's saying some type of signal should be put up for the Russians.

Cost?  No one says much but would have to be into the five to ten billion range if you wanted to protect twenty of the bigger cities.  Don't go expecting this idea to accepted by the Bundestag.

4.  An EU with 27, 30, or 36 states?

Well....the Chancellor (Scholz, SPD) made a speech yesterday to the idea of enlarging the EU.  Countries that he's talking about?  Moldovia, Ukraine, Georgia, the Balkan states, 

Odds of this happening?  Several of those mentioned (Moldovia, Serbia, Albania for example)....I think could pass the 'test' and be members within five years.  Even Turkey (with some change in leadership) might have some chance of joining.  

Fifty Year Murder Case

 Last night, late.....ARD (Channel One) ran a 'Crime Time' episode.....over a Mainz murder from 1970.  You can view the episode here on YouTube.  It's in German, but I strongly recommend watching it.

So the murder is set in a well-to-do home in Mainz.....a female doctor and her daughter were killed in a pretty violent fashion.  A guy who was known for being an exhibitionist with a low IQ....was the person that the police latched onto.

Fingerprints at the scene?  No.  That's the odd part of the story.  Police came to view that whoever did it....was extremely careful to leave absolutely no fingerprints.  

The guy pinned for the murder?  He still lives today.....in a state prison.....doing now over 50 years for the murder.  Normally, for most murders.....you'd be released by 20 years.  In his case, because he's never repented for the murders....the court system has kept him on.  

There's several reviews going on currently and people are now questioning the way that the police conducted the case, and maybe the guy was innocent of the charges.

The odd factor?  Well....this 17-year old daughter (in a upscale school and considered a high performer).....had written in her diary....she used LSD and sold LSD.

Based on the description of the murder scene.....with the LSD situation in the background.....I'm more inclined to believe one of the daughter's friends or customers were behind the murder.

Just an odd story to view.  

How Close To WW III?

 Well....it's a pretty fair distance to reach something like this.

Putin would have to go and threaten a second country (beyond Ukraine), or get caught in some sabotage event where hundreds of Europeans died.  Presently, I'd put the odds at 10-percent (at best).

Sabotage on the Nord Stream pipes?  So far, no real evidence exists, and you can't discount the Ukrainians as possibly being behind it.

US positioned into some ready position?  Yes, there's US troops in Poland, and the Baltic region.  

Nuke war possibility?  I could see a demonstration of three tactical nukes....to make a point.  That would not be enough to escalate to WW III.

How often is this brought up on German public TV?  Well.....almost nightly, and that's the odd part of the discussion.  

RBB (Berlin Public TV) Back In Crisis Situation?

 Well.....it's come out now (after they 'fired' the director of the regional public TV network)....that there was a clause in the contract about retirement and terminations.

Basically, for any type of firing.....this director of the network, was up for 212,000 Euro a year.....as a pension.

Under a normal ending....coming to the end of the contract, she would have gotten around 106,000 Euro a year.

Yeah, this has gotten out in public and there's some criticism about how this is written and who signed off. 

Comparison with Merkel's (former Chancellor) pension?  She draws around 15,500 Euro a month....so the TV director (a public employee) is making around 3,000 Euro more a month.

My humble view is that it's getting to a point where some truth commission is going to form up, and questions will arise over all of the directors and their contracts.  I don't think it'll end in a pretty fashion.

The more amusing part of this story is that the board of directors who'd normally have oversight or a view of things....seem to confess they know little to nothing about the contract deal.  

The Granny-Is-A-Terrorist Story

 German federal cops say that they've arrested one 75-year old woman on pretty serious charges.

The deal?  Well....this old German gal was intending to get a machine-gun of some type.....kidnap the Federal Health Minister (Lauterbach, SPD).....and had plans to take down the power network (blackouts).

This comes out of the central Saxony region of Germany.

Some right-wing terror organization?  Well....that's the general description of this old gal's gang.  

How this all came to be?  It appears for years and years....she was a teacher in the Pfalz area of Germany, and upon retirement....made comments countering the German Constitution....which dragged her into court, and eventually the state took away her pension (in some fashion)....which apparently made her even more right-wing (the way it looks).  

Now?  If they convict her (I anticipate this).....the state will then move her into a deluxe prison system and cover her living cost for the remainder of her life.

Comical in some ways?  Maybe, but the moment you start talking about kidnapping German government officials....you are treading on 1970s Red Army Faction history, and that freaks out the political establishment.   

The basic story is weird enough....to probably be made into a movie script.  

49-Euro Ticket Chatter

 There was a meeting this week in Germany of the Federal Transportation Minister, and the various state (16) Transportation Ministers.  Topic?  This 49-Euro a moth rail/bus pass.

There's a tremendous amount of hype existing....where people want a cheap public transportation 'deal'.  The meeting result?  They all seemed headed to a January start-up of a national 49-Euro monthly pass.

Chief problem?  Well....even if a third of society buys into this.....it won't be enough money to cover the real cost of running the bus and rail system, so the federal government will have kick in at least a billion or two.....to make this work.

Last night, for the late news on ARD (public TV, Channel One), they ran a simple segment on a 'one-horse' village in the middle of nowhere (Fischerhude, maybe a 12-mile piece east of Bremen).  

The mayor stood there at the one single bus stop for the town....looking at the schedule.  Sixteen buses arrive each day.....eight going one direction.....eight going the other direction.  

The 49-Euro ticket for these people is useless....they won't have the infrastructure to make it worth the deal.  That is the pit of woes that the ticket drags along.

I can drive 30 minutes north of where I live and it's more or less the same story....a very rural area of Hessen.....with marginal bus or rail service.  

I used to live in the K-Town area....in a village which had nine buses a day pass through.  If I rode a bike over to the next village....they had rail service....but only 10 trains passing south, and 10 trains passing north, per day.  On weekends, it'd go to seven trains passing each direction. 

Now, if you live in highly urbanized areas (like Frankfurt, Mainz, or Stuttgart)....the 49-Euro ticket would be terrific.  But is it priced right?  Presently, if you live in Mainz,  and want a monthly pass for the Mainz-to-Frankfurt situation....it's 199-Euro per month (adult price) for the full 30-day schedule.  So when you price this at 49-Euro.....you are subsidizing the urban situation by 150-Euro per person.  The rural guy?  He's not getting the same value.

Where is this leading to?  An unfairness scale.....where urban folks score more because of where they live and they soak up the tax revenue pot.  

Behavior Story

 There's an interesting Focus interview today....with a Jewish Rabbi.

The blunt side of this?  This rabbi....Ariel Kirzon.....has had a encounter or two, where insults were used against him. 

Anti-Semitism in Germany?  Just in general.....you didn't see much of it in the 1960s and 1970s.  I'm not saying Germans were kind-hearted with Jews in that era....it's just that a lot of lectures by West German government political figures and the dynamics of US/UK influence in the 1950s made people keep their mouths shut.

As Focus points out....in the past decade....public insults, hate speech and violence have escalated.

A lot of this done by refugees (non-Germans)?  Well.....there's a strong suggestion to that trend.

So Kirzon is suggesting a pretty dramatic change....as a refugee, you ought to be brought in and read the riot-act on anti-Semitism, sign a document, and if you fail to behave....you get sent back 'home'.

Odds of something like this happening?  It'd be a harsh change to force upon immigrants and refugees.....but if you were going this far, then you might add bad behavior to German women to the list, and a dozen other things.  

I'm not saying it'd really change much on behavior, but you might start the exit process of sending folks back to their homeland.  Oddly enough....it'd be mostly men.  

Finding a backbone in political figures to go this far?  That would be a challenge.

Blackout Chatter

 There's hardly a day that goes by now, with either commercial or public German TV chatting over potential blackouts.

Someone yesterday started to point out in a three-day blackout....that most all local grocery operations, gas stations, and businesses would be closed down.  In the case of grocery stores.....without back-up power, the freezers  and refrigeration areas would fail....food would spoil....and getting resupplied would take two or three days (assuming the warehouse had back-up power).

All of this paused my wife (German in nature) if her company would even function....which I tried to avoid answering the question.

Adding to this dilemma.....with most trains running by electrical means....the Bahn network would shutdown in that affected area.

Easily turning into a major disaster, if the power went off for a day or two?  Yeah.  

Trying to say the whole country would go this way?  No.  I would suggest a fairly confined region....anywhere from a quarter of a state to an entire state is the likely scenario to occur.  

Four German News Stories

 1.  The President of Germany (Steinmeier, SPD) had a picture taken onboard a train....without a COVID mask on.  Hype is pretty negative and there's likely to be an investigation over the picture.

2.  Greta Thunberg gave an interview to ARD (German public TV).  So....nuke energy was discussed, and Greta could not understand why Germans were still using coal energy....instead of going to nuke energy.  

This might drag up a long scientific discussion and Germans might have to admit the whole 'fear' thing over nuke energy was never openly discussed under the Merkel coalition.  

3.  There's been an effort in Berlin to have a out-of-action Russian tank put in front of the Russian embassy.  The Green Party Senator who headed public safety in the city....said no, and forbid it.  The group sponsoring this went to court, and the judge said 'yes, you can put a tank there'.  

Not a big deal....but it shows the political bickering being played out.

4.  This resignation of the Pfalz Interior Minister (Lewentz, SPD)?  This has to do with the Ahr Valley flood from last summer.  There was a police helicopter over the flooded area shortly after reports rolled in, and took video of the situation.

What is generally said.....no one from the Interior Department of the state of the Pfalz.....did anything until daylight.  Locally, resources were active and being used.

Putin Chatter

 If you gaze at the news of the day....there's talk of a meeting between Russia and Ukraine (no date mentioned).

Putin is supposed to meet shortly with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and he wants him to be the mediator of talks with Ukraine.

What Ukraine will demand?  I think three key things: (1) Russian troops leave the Ukraine, (2) war crimes to be accomplished with Russian ranking officers and Wagner contract troops, and (3) no territory to be given to Russia.  They might accept some deal where the Crimea is just totally independent (like Georgia).   

Putin might be agreeable to part of this (troops gone and no territory).  I don't think the war crimes will be accepted.  But Putin might offer up a 'fund' of some type (say 25-billion dollars) to cover damages. 

Lets face it....economically, it's hurting them to continue the war.  Lets also admit.....all this Nazi-talk has gone nowhere.  

Sticking point?  Ukraine wants NATO membership, and Putin can't possibly accept this.  

What Is the German Microcensus?

 Well....every year, the German statistics folks of the government.....conducts what you'd call a mini-census....which typically affects around 800,000 citizens.  Some parts of the census are simple and just a couple of pages.  

It's been brought up that some parts of the microcensus has grown to around 100 pages.

By law (including the EU regulations), you have to fill the paperwork out. 

Course, you can imagine the typical German.....getting this 'folder' in the mailbox, and grasping that it's roughly 100 pages of questions about your life, your property, your values, etc.

The odds of the normal five-page form?  Overwhelming, and usually the normal situation for most people.  

The Dirty Power Story

 I noticed this today, and it's a odd deal.

Belgium has a company (Exmar) that has offered up three barges, which have oil-generated power abilities (450 Mega Watts each) to the Germans.  Each being enough to power 100,000 homes in Germany (roughly).  

Dirty power?  Well....yeah.

Focus talked about this in the AM.

Under normal conditions.....they'd (the Germans) would probably turn this down, but because of the questionable power situation....with the ability to move these around on the river system.....it's not such a crazy thing.

Getting environmentalists upset?  Running off oil....yeah.  My humble belief is that they will offer some deal to have them on standby, and if things get bad enough....float them to the point where they'd be of use.

Five German News Stories

 1.  If you pick up WELT today....there's a piece there detailing the German situation with natural gas reserves.....saying the reserve system is now 95-percent full.  Enough for the winter?  Well....the gov't is careful to note that this is not their 'promise'.  

2.  WELT brought up a warning that the German hospital system is issuing....with Covid patients increasing their use of hospitals, and the current shortage of nurses to support the incoming flow.  

3.  There's a meeting of NATO defense ministers going on, with the top topic of Ukraine being invited to be a member.  One of the odd plus-ups mentioned....is that Ukraine might be the most capable member other than the US....if they were allowed to join, against Russia.  

4.  There's a push going on to establish a national 49-Euro train/bus ticket.  To make this work however.....the federal government would have to contribute some money into the pot....meaning it cost more than 49-Euro to accomplish the ticket dreamed of.

5.  Finally, N-TV brought up a piece over the Russian economy....because of the 'draft' of the 300,000 reservists, and the quick exit out of Russia of tens of thousands more skilled-workers.....the Russian economy is currently in 'free-fall'.  

A Walk

 I spent an hour this morning....walking around the shopping district of Wiesbaden....from one end, to the other.

By the time you count the main avenue, and the side-streets.....there's about twenty-five business fronts....empty.

Some have actually been empty for almost two years.  Most have been empty since early 2022. 

Where businesses failed and shut down.....some new business fronts opened up, and several of those failed by mid-summer.  I noticed one new shop (opened in the past four weeks)....a tattoo/body piercing shop.  To be honest, there's probably not a lot of need for such a shop, but I suspect the rent has gone down enough....that it makes sense.

A bad sign, with 'for rent' signs up?  Well....Covid and decreased capitalism really changed the downtown area, and probably reset things for the upcoming decade.

More homeless people laying around?  That's one of the odd new features....there's probably over forty folks who lounge in the shopping district now....who weren't there a decade ago.

It is a bold new era, and you have to wonder how things progress over the next decade.

Does Germany Have A Limit On Refugees?

 In legal terms....NO.

In physical living accommodations?   YES.

I noticed this morning that Hamburg (the city) has gone to erecting tents (yes, the 10 ft by 15 ft type) to house Ukrainians because temp facilities are now maxed out.  

If you read through the general news.....around 1.1-million individuals have registered as migrants or refugees for 2022 in Germany.  With November and December left?  I'd take a guess it'll come close to 1.3-million by the end of the year.

Rostock went to the use of river cruise vessels.....to house refugees in their local area.

The next problem?  Well....there are now Russians in the mix, who want leave because of the draft situation.  Potential?  No one talks numbers, but it wouldn't surprise me if by spring of 2023.....there's 200,000 Russians seeking some type of visa situation in Germany.  

The anti-migrant chatter like 2015?  Well.....no.  For some reason, the bulk of Germans are accepting of the situation presently.....mostly being pro-Ukrainian in nature, and not really expecting them to stay long term.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  In the next week or two.....the Germans will give the Ukrainians the IRIS-T defense system (able to handle air threats).  Some people believe the air and missile capable of the Russians will finally be cut.

2  Various German states are now putting pressure on the federal government to contribute more money to handle refugees and migrants (over 1.1-million at this point for 2022).

3.  Jungle Camp 2023 (reality German TV show) is passing around a rumor that they've gone to try to convince Claudia Obert to participate.  A note on Obert....on average, she probably consumes one to two bottle of champagne per day.  Jungle Camp (being done in Australia next year) does not allow any alcohol in the camp at all.  

4.  If you pay attention to France news.....strikes over gas stations going on, and there's some shortage of fuel around the country.  Some suggest one out of every three stations are in a shut-down situation. 

5.  Bakery chain in NRW has stood up and said Sunday cafe openings are now not possible.....they can't find enough people who are willing to work on Sundays.

Energy Chatter

 Last night, via Pro7 (commercial German channel), they ran a show call 'ProSieben Politik Show'.  Topic?  The energy crisis.

I'd generally say if you were a German and attempting to watch it.....your aggravation level on politics would have been enormous. 

They had a couple of political figures (Green Party, CDU, and SPD) and energy experts.  Then they had this baker come up and lay his impossible task of surviving with the prices escalating.  There was more or less nothing constructive from any of the panel, and you felt pretty crappy in how the energy crisis is being handled.

You can go and watch the show here. (in German)

If you wanted to feel some confidence....it's best not to watch the show.

How The Natural Gas 'Brake' Looks?

 Well....the draft is out today and it looks this way.....your state (does not appear to be federally run) will assume the down payment of the gas and district heating customers....once we arrive into into December. 

They say that whatever your advance payment was supposed be (appearing on warning letters in September)....will be what they pay.

Then the second step occurs...some made-up payment amount will then click into place to cover homes and small companies.....in the early spring of 2023....lasting to April 2024.

Lot of paperwork and questionable stuff involved?  Yeah.....just looking over this.....I'd shake my head on how this works.  If you were moving from one state to another in Germany?  This might be a problem.

Also, they are admitting this is not a 1-year issue, which a lot of people have long suggested.  

Where the money comes from to cover this?  Well.....taxes.

A Likely Next Move In The War

 In the past month, if you pay attention to Russian chatter and the war news, there's this odd trend building up.

First, it's not a big discussion, but right now....there are two private armies existing in Russia.  One of the top Oligarch players has his 'Wagner' army (probably 30,000 in number), and the Chechen 'boss' has his private Chechen army.  

Both individuals have made recent negative comments and critical statements about General Schoigu (the true General and head of the Russian military).  

In simple terms....they (the two private army 'generals') are angling to make Schoigu the scape-goat of the entire failed war.   

Just me saying this, but Schoigu might have come to realize that Putin's irrational behavior, and trusting nature of Wagner-Army guy and the Chechen 'boss'.....might lead to a fairly wild scenario where the regular army is tossed into a 'mixer' and Schoigu might be 'fired' or arrested for incompetence.  

A now or never move.....developing a coup and branding the two private armies (with their bosses) as the true culprits of bad planning for the war?  That's my suggestion. 

Five German News Stories

 1.  After the smoke cleared on the Lower Saxony state election yesterday....an odd event occurred with public TV.  ARD (national public TV, Channel One) did a segment with the parties.  Here was the Green Party rep and the SPD Party rep.....with the ARD moderator.  Then in some hyped-up way....the TV moderator said more or less....'Thank God that we don't end up with a SPD-CDU coalition government'.  

Yeah, it was noted in the news this morning, and more than a few people are angry about the biased nature of the moderator.

2.  I noticed some electricity analyst did the numbers for Focus....on adding a massive number of E-Cars to the German grid by 2040.  So his final conclusion?  The grid has to only upgrade to carry 9-percent more power than it generates today.  

3.  Roughly four out of ten Lower Saxony voters (registered) did not show up for the voting yesterday.  Experts tend to suggest that voter-frustration exists.

4.  The Anne Will public forum show on ARD last night (Sunday)?  Mostly a bunch of topics bundled up.  

The Lower Saxony election, electrical prices, German national 'worry', etc.

About halfway through it, I gave up.  If you don't want more stress or worry in your life....might be better to avoid forums like this.

5.  Two-million job vacancy situations exist in Germany as of October 2022 (out of 83-million in population).  A lot of this has to do with job skills being in a negative category.  

Q-and-A

 1.  Are political polls in Germany as crappy as the US polls?

Generally, no.

Public TV (both ARD and ZDF) do a decent job of monthly polling and showing decline or escalation of the various political parties, with scandals and screw-ups in the mix.  

2.  Is there hype-up going on for the World Cup games in Qatar....in roughly eight weeks?

NO.  I'd say that among soccer fans presently in Germany.....they know the game schedule and have their favorite team, but having the games around Christmas time.....was a pretty stupid decision.

3.  Is the AfD Party anti-NATO and anti-US?

Well....for the past five years, their common theme was anti-migrant and anti-immigration.  In the past six months, with the theme touching on the Russia-Ukraine war.....oddly enough, they've gone to anti-NATO/US.  Signs appear in their protest walks, but they tread lightly when talking about position taken.  This has led some Germans to suggest the party is walking toward pro-Russia positions.

4.  Is there a lot of blackout chatter going on presently in Germany?

'Fright' chatter is what I'd call it.

Virtually all of the news sources (even public TV) have talked about this and readily suggesting that 12 hours of a blackout is to be absolutely expected at some point, and a few even saying four days straight of zero power is possible.  

Realistically?  There's some cases going back to the 1970s where regions had a couple of days of blackout.  It's to say if the industry is hinting just of a worst-case scenario.  

Lower Saxony (Niedersachsen) Election Results

State election was held in Lower Saxony today.  Results:

SPD: 33-percent.

CDU: 26.6-percent.

Greens: 14-percent.

FDP: 5-percent.

AfD: 11.6-percent.

Average turn-out. 

Both the SPD and CDU lost votes over the past election, with the AfD on the gainers.

The Accompanying Russian Reservist Problems

 As Putin activated the 300,000 reservists....he's created a number of problems.

So, these are not 18-year-old Conscript type individuals....these are men in their 20s, 30s, and 40s.  They are normal Russians, with home mortgages.

A number of them have brought up that so far, they haven't seen the mechanism to safely pay their mortgage while on active duty.   In one statement, a reservist noted that his bank wanted him to stop by before he reporting to duty....to note his status.  Well....he didn't have time to do this, and there's questions if his wife can sign the papers.

Where this is going to lead onto?  I think that Putin will find some power and just excuse the payments for the duration of the guy's duty, but no one has clearly said how long the reservists will be on activation.  If you were asking me.....I think they will be around for a full year, and be swapped out for a fresh new reserve crew in October of 2023.

This to unsettle the banks?  Normally, I'd say yes....but they've seen so many problems since Feb of this year.....that nothing really surprises them. Most would probably say that they are in a massive 'bubble' and just operating at the bare minimum level of existence.  

Those reservists who don't come back?  Well....this will present a future issue if you have 25,000 of the reservists who pass-on via combat action.  These are guys who had financial obligations, job positions, and families.  

The people advising Putin....seeing the true landscape?  I doubt it.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  I noticed off Focus this AM.....British military folks have viewed imagery and reports....to now say since day one of the war....the Ukrainians have been 'given' just over 1,000 operational tanks and APCs.  Mix of 440 operational tanks and 650 armored vehicles.  

Presently, I'd say tanks are probably the least needed thing of Ukraine....they are getting plenty of support from Russia.

2.  WELT says 15,000 Ukrainian soldiers will be 'trained' in the EU in the coming months.  You can call it a mini-boot-camp but it appears to be approved through several nations.

3.  The German Medical Disaster Relief organization has stood up and said that the government needs to provide training on how to handle blackouts.  I kinda shake my head over the suggestion, but suspect they are trying to get the idea across that blackouts might be a regular thing (several times a week) and some of these might go longer than 24 hours.  

Disrupting bakery operations, and being a problem for medical situations?  Yeah, probably.

4.  All the railway chaos from yesterday, from the sabotage effort on two points of the German Bahn....has 'cleared' up.  Trains moving and passengers back on track.

Who was behind the sabotage effort?  Unknown.  It has to be two individuals or groups....for the two events to be carried out.

5.  The German Bundeswehr admits it has enough ammo to carry out two days of full-up war presently.  The industry points out that this is a choice of the government for the past twenty-odd years, and not just a recent thing.  

What's Set To Occur in Kherson, Ukraine This Week?

 To set the stage, Kherson is a port city (at the edge of the Black Sea and has the Dnieper River to it's SE side.  Before the war, it had 278,000 residents....more or less.

The Russians have established and had control over the region for a fair amount of time (since the beginning of the conflict).  Presently, the Ukrainians are progressing to the point where they will have control in the next week....mostly because the logistics trail has been cut to a great extent.  

How many Russian soldiers are presently there?  Most estimates go to around 10,000 to 12,000.  

Presently there are two bridges left to exit safely across the Dnieper (one footbridge and one regular bridge).  

Yesterday, it came up that ethnic Russians civilians (really Ukrainians) are worried about what may happen, and there's talk of an evacuation.  How many are left in the area presently?  Best guesses go to around 50,000 to 70,000, but that's assuming they are locals and not from the region itself.

Russian chatter?  They seem to think they need to safely get the ethnic Russians out. How would this civilian evacuation work?  Unknown, and Russia has never done something like this.  

Personally, I think when the retreat is ordered....most of the tanks will be abandoned there (lacking fuel) and no one will really support helping civilians to leave.  But I don't see city population all being much of pro-Russia and that the arrival of the Ukrainians might be more of a positive thing.  

Biggest event of the war?  Yeah, I'd rate the takeover of Kherson as being pretty massive event.  Using this event to demonstrate the tactical nuke for Russia?  Yeah, I'd take a humble guess that this might be the moment where you wanted to show your capability.  

Why The War Is Finished For The Russians

 I advocate this YouTube video on the 'winning'/'losing' of the war.  Done in the last couple of days, and correct on the Russian trends.  Russia would have to throw their entire strategy out and fight in an entirely different way.....to win in any form.

Bahn (Railway) Sabotage?

 What can be said this afternoon....two acts of sabotage occurred with rail lines in the northern quarter of Germany....halting traffic on all lines for about 3 hours.

Who?  Unknown.  Could be mafia....Russian special forces....GAZPROM employees....Ukrainians....CIA....KGB/FSB....unknown.

Two separate locations.

Federal police investigating.  

Effect of the Crimea Bridge Being Blown Last Night?

 Well....it's the only bridge giving the Crimea easy access back into Russia, so it's back to the ferry network for the next couple of months.

Fixing this?  Easily fixed and in a normal situation.....probably would be working in 90 days or less.  However, from this group of 300,000 reservists who were activated.....I'm kinda wondering if a thousand or more of them would have been construction workers on projects like this.  

The other problem here....even if you threw five or six ferries into the resolution....wouldn't Ukraine reach a point of firing on them?  

Just my humble feeling, but I suspect a quarter of the Crimea population will probably say this is enough to pack up and leave the isle for a while.  

A Trip This Past Week

 I had to go over to the Audi dealer (in Mainz) this past week.  Most of the time....it's simply to drop the car off for maintenance, and I leave.  This time, I ended up spending around 30 minutes just sitting there.

As a kid, my dad did most of his car business with Ford, and you got used to the dealer building and behavior being a certain way.  Audi goes to the far extreme and probably more positive standing....than Ford.

Virtually everyone within sight at the Audi building looks like a male or female model.  Even the body repair guy I had to deal with (who was 60 years old) probably could have passed for a old 'gent' GQ-type model.

Coffee?  Only the best, and the stuff you'd pay three to four Euro for....at a premium shop.

The couch or chairs?  Ford was lucky to have stuff that was twenty to thirty years old.  Audi?  It was like out out of some premium leather store.

Little signs around for the premium 'hot' upgrade on the newest AI within the Audi car system?  Oh yeah.

It is a totally different world from the typical 1974 Ford dealership, and the 2022 Audi dealership. In some ways, I wish politics were run like Audi....where they want the consumer to be absolutely dedicated to their 'product' or service.  

All of this leading to a 'bait-and-hook' capitalistic approach?  Yeah.  The typical car, the service, and look....baits you to be consumed with passion to be on the Audi team.  The Ford guys?  I've not been with the team....in a awful long, long time.  

Bunker Chatter

 N-TV did a curious piece this AM.....talking over the current status of 'bunkers' in Germany. 

For those who haven't paid attention to the situation....ever since the Cold War ended (December 1991).....over the bulk of Germany, from US facilities to German facilities....the race was on to tear down bunkers.

In the past six months....reality has arrived, and the Germans are now hyped to rebuild bunkers.

As the N-TV folks point out....the first priority is to halt the destruction of what few bunkers still exist.  Then they have to find some funding to go back and rebuild them.

Trying to go back and resolve this?  I think you'd be talking about more than five or six decades to even reach a starting point.  

All of this because of the Russia threat?  Yeah.  Yet, they were still buying natural gas and coal from the Russians....helping to support the threat....up until the last month or two?  Yeah. 

Just Things You Notice

 1.  If you've walked into a German grocery in the past month....you kinda notice that spaghetti (of any variety) is higher.  I watched the German news this week, and they noted on average.....spaghetti is 36-percent higher than it was six months ago.  

2.  The EU is hyped-up negative about the 200-billion Euro 'loan' that Germany is cooking up to save consumers and companies from the escalating natural gas and electrical costs.  Primarily anger?  Well....other countries are not able to afford this.  Course, no one has come to the 200-billion falling upon the backs of the German tax-payers....sooner or later.

3.  Cottbus, Germany (population of 100,000)....situated in the eastern part of the country.....holds a mayor's election on Sunday.  It's possible that a AfD Party guy wins the election.  Lot of shock going on with this possibility.

4.  The city government of Speyer has given the widow of Helmet Kohl a final ultimatum....put up a true burial site or they will take the action themselves.

The basic description of the current deal?  It's not really a memorial to a Chancellor, and with the security fencing around it.....it's something less than a memorial.   

It's become a 'battle' of sorts, with even the sons of Kohl opposing the widow.    

Five German News Stories

 1.  N-24 news (commercially run) in Germany....did a pretty decent report on the threat of fallout if a Russian tactical nuke is used in the Ukraine, with Marian Grunden (editor) producing it.  Fallout radius?  Roughly 100 km.  

2.  Germany has apparently around 800 million masks that were acquired in 2020 for Covid (via government screw-ups on quality) and are in some form of dispersal.  Strong hint that they are 'expired' as well.  

3.  The German Federal Foreign Office has ordered Germans to leave Iran.....suggesting that things are deteriorating.

4.  Firewood in Germany is now selling for 240 Euro per square meter.  Currently, regarded as the cheapest method of heating a home.

5.  ARD (public TV, Channel One) went and did a summer 1972 Olympics 'special' (four episodes) going into detail about the terror attack.  I would suggest that a lot of Germans (even in their 70s) had forgotten the event.  So this issue has popped up.  A surviving terrorist from the era was interviewed for the show, and paid 2,000 Euro for their 'contribution'.  

In the interviews after this special....the same guy has said bluntly that if given a chance to kill Jews....he'd do it again.

Naturally, lot of negative feelings about the 2,000 Euro going out to the guy and his commentary.  Another negative for the network.    

Three General Questions You Should Ask Yourself About the Ukraine-Russia War

 1.  Was Putin in the 1990s a brilliant strategist for the 'job'?  

I don't think that's the way you ask or answer the question.  He was the guy that the Duma pushed forward, and that the Oligarch folks were willing to accept.  They weren't looking for a genius or Einstein-like character, or someone with charisma, or someone with organization/business talents.  They all just wanted someone who'd allow them to roam freely, and not hold them accountable.  

Putin said 'fine', but he wanted a 'cut' of the profits, and he wanted to layer his own friends into the next generation of Oligarch folks.  

Presently, he's got the mindset that he wants a legend to follow him to the grave....that he would be the guy to have a little Russia war....win....and demonstrate Russian domination.  

2.  If this goes to the nuke level....does that finally end the war?

I'm not really convinced of that strategy or ending result.

If Ukraine shocks people by demonstrating they also have a nuke capability, then Putin will be forced to respond with a second, third and probably fourth tactical nuke.  

If you wanted to see a bunch of Europeans totally freaked-out.....this would be the moment.

3.  This rumor of 700,000 young people having left Russia (started this week)?

If you go back to Feb, and start counting families that left early, and the technicians or college kids that left in the past three months.....yeah, that 700k number might be fairly accurate. 

My issue here is that they weren't the warehouse guys, or gas station clerks, or landscaping guys.  They were of the higher quality or educated folks, and if they don't return.....it really opens up a burden on Russia to maintain technology-driven lifestyles.  

This Suggestion Of The US Hitting Nord Stream I/II?

 I noticed yesterday a blog site which is suggesting that the US Navy had a hand in the Nord Stream I/II pipelines being 'hit'.

My BS-meter?  Probably a 'seven' out of ten.

The question here....how would you go and explain this if proven true, without both Russia and Germany in a huge anger moment?

Selling this within the White House itself?  There would be at least twenty-odd individuals in the White House who would know the situation and blab to any number of newspaper journalists.  

The 'gain'?  Well....about the only big gain is that if you invested heavily into LNG stocks....they'd pay off big by next spring.  

The 'truth'?  Yes, there is a Navy P-3 circling the Baltic around the time of the explosions of the pipeline.  That's the one single grain of truth in this story.  Beyond that?  Nothing.

The possibility that the Russians performed the act, with a 'bought' US missile/torpedo, and will try to build a fake story that the US planned it and carried it out?  Oh, I give that a strong possibility.  

So, when you see or hear the story....at least you know the bits and pieces of it.

Four Things I Noticed This Week in Germany

 1.  I went to a local hardware store....that had a huge stock of firewood laid out in bundles (probably enough to fit into the back of a car).  Five or six German guys were eyeballing what had just been taken off a delivery truck.  

2.  You see an awful lot of politicians in Germanys.....accusing each other of using 'Russian propaganda'.  People on the left, right and center.....shouting the BS.

3.  It's interesting.....Putin put out a 'rule-change' where college students could not be grabbed for the 'draft' or reservists business....because the colleges were complaining of a massive number of young males who left the colleges for the border.

I personally don't think they will come back....doubting Putin at his word.  Go expect at least another 100,000 young men (age 17-to-18) to pack and leave in early 2023....fearing another call-up.  

4.  There's a German medical argument going on that 19 C (66 F)is not warm enough for office people to function. Personally, having worked in various underground facilities in my life, I will attest that thin-trim-non-fatty folks have a big problem even at 20 C (68 F).  

The folks who do well in the 19 C situation?  Mostly the chubby-overweight folks.  If anyone wants to award me a Nobel for my 'discovery'.....feel free.  I'll even state the obvious that in a office situation where the temperature is 17 C (62 F).....it'll be mostly guys happy and more productive.  

Lower Saxony State Election This Weekend

 How the polls look for this German state election?

The SPD ought to marginally win (in the 30 to 33 percent range), with the CDU fairly close at 26 to 28 percent range).

Shocker?  AfD might come to around 11 to 12 percent range.  A year ago, they would have only taken 5 percent.  

Beyond that?  No real shocks except that FDP might take less than 5-percent in this state election.

That's it for state elections for 2022.  

Will Credit Suisse (The Swiss Investment Banking Giant) Collapse Like Lehman's?

 In recent days, this has been hyped up.

Stock presently?  4.24 Euro per share......down in 12 months by 50-percent.  Around five years ago, it hit a peak of nearly 15.40 Euro a share.  Back in 2007, it briefly hit around the the 50-Euro point.

Based on indicators, I'd say it dips below 4-Euro by the end of October.  

If you were looking for a serious indicator of a bad economy.....this would be one of my top ten issues.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  The EU wrapped up a new rule....basically limiting power companies to 18 cents per KwH of profit.  Anything you make profit-wise, past that point, is government money and intended to revert back to customers.  

Whether this works as designed....is an unknown.

2.  Kherson, Ukraine....currently held by roughly 25,000 Russian conscripts....will likely fall within ten days...based on various news reports.

Two bridges to escape from the area, with one bridge only for foot-traffic.  

Logistically, they can't hold out.

3.  A new property tax assessment is supposed to be completed by property owners by the last day of October.  Presently, only one-third of owners have completed the on-line form, and there's a fear building up that the form process is so complicated....that people have given up on the attempt.  

I should note, there are sixteen states, and sixteen different forms in the mix....so trying to get the information straight and filling the form is the lingering issue.

There is a suggestion within the Bundestag that two months of additional time will be allowed.  

4.  Heating oil furnaces are making a 'comeback' in Germany.  Law allows them to be newly installed until the end of 2024.

5.  Eurowings is striking....affecting around 70,000 daily passengers.   

Blackout Chatter

 In WELT today, there's a article written by Kristian Frigelj, on the topic of potential blackouts in Germany coming up.  I strongly recommend a read of the article, if you get a copy of the newspaper (Wed).

Basically, the suggestion is there to start preparing yourself not just for a 8-hour blackout, or a 24-hour blackout....but potentially up to 72 hours.

My belief in this?  If you had some arctic situation, with temperatures lower than 0 C, and millions of people in some region trying to augment their natural gas heat with electrical heat.....then yeah, its possible.

Normally, no.....it's not a realistic scenario.

Politically turning into a 'scandal' situation?  No one will say much over a 8-hour or 12-hour outage.  Once you go to a 24-hour situation, then you have Germans asking stupid questions. 

Audit Story

 'Report Mainz', a news crew for ARD (Channel One, public TV) went and did a news survey of 'gun control' in Germany....basically asking the 513 gun control authorities (of each district) how often they inventory or audit gun owners (licensed by the state).

Response?  If you threw all owners into a basket and waited for each one to have a single audit or inspection....it'd take four decades to complete.

The issue?  If you read the whole report....they aren't manned to conduct these on a regular basis.  Depending on what district or state you live in....it might be over a hundred years before your first and only inspection of weapons are reviewed.

About twenty years ago, I had a conversation with an American who lived in Germany, was a licensed hunter, and had guns owned and 'controlled' in his home (he had the class and license).   He'd been in this situation since the mid-1980s, and never saw a big deal about the 'control'.

Once you finish the class and get your 'license'....you buy a cab cabinet for your weapons storage.  You have only one key, and it stays on you.....24-hours a day.  Unannounced, a police patrol can come to your residence and ask for a audit of the weapons.  They'd have a list of what is supposed to be there.....as long as the weapons are show....you have no problem.  If the key was not on your person, or a extra gun was in the cabinet.....then you had problems. 

I asked the guy....this was around 2000, if he knew of any German who'd failed.  His response....usually, a third of the guys who were audited....didn't have the key on them (it was in a second secure cabinet).  Cops didn't necessarily like that, but they'd skip the consequences.  What they didn't want to see....you pull the key out of a desk drawer.   

Why the chatter on this story?  I think some politicized folks want eliminate private gun ownership in Germany, and this audit business would be a step in that direction.

If you asked me over the gun management program in Germany 'fixing' things?  The vast number of people who own guns in Germany.....are hunters.  If you eliminated guns?  You'd basically eliminate hunting.  Vice versa is also true....hunting being eliminated...there's not much to have ownership of guns.  

In the more rural areas of the nation?  Like Bavaria, the Pfalz or Baden-Wurttemberg?  It's a pretty high percentage of people who hunt. 

Would any of this matter.....even if a audit guy came every twelve months?  I have my doubts.  You can only conduct the audit if the licensed guy is there....his wife or kids can't do much of anything, except say that you stopped by.  

The Tactical Nuke Scenario

 First, I would be willing to suggest that almost none of the Conscripts currently in the front....have ever gone and practiced an exercise where nuke weapons and fallout were part of the warfare.....so they have zero capability in this situation.

Second, I don't think NATO will sit to the side once one tactical nuke has been used to 'demonstrate' capability.  

Third, I'm not convinced that Ukraine has zero nuke weapons.  They could have engaged with any number of players in the world (Israel for one) and gotten enough knowledge and hardware to build their own nuke.  Putin likely discounts this....thinking the FSB/KGB would have heard about this.

Finally, the pro-Putin Russians will still gather under his theme.  But I suspect this would be the final straw for several million Russians to put a exit-plan into play.....leaving Russia over the next couple of months.  

Rising Costs

 HR, my regional public TV network, did a pretty harsh segment over what the restaurant situation is with rising energy costs.

By their reporting.....one out of six operations have received an updated bill situation....going four to ten times what the previous bills for electricity and heating were.

My humble view?  By December, unless the states begin to step in with cash....at least 50-percent of all restaurants will be shut-down and unable to afford the new reality.

Five German News Stories

 1.  I sat and read through a Russian news piece (probably having occurred around Friday).  Moscow cops got called out to a reservist center.  Fight going on.

So when it's quieted down, what they generally say is that one group of new draftee reservists had arrived, and there were a 1-year group of Conscripts who'd been in the war for a while.  No one say liquor was in the mix, but I suspect it was.

The Conscripts had gone demanded all the clothing (civies) and cellphones of the new draftees.  They refused to cooperate, and a fight started up.  The draftees basically got the upper hand in the fight, and the Conscripts had been pressed to get into one office area, and call the cops for protection.  Cops didn't say much....other than the matter was now settled.

2.  Bild had done a Insa survey and over the weekend....found that the AfD Party was now at the highest point of public support since 2020 (15 percent).  A lot of this comes from the energy complaints of the public.

3.  Some reports this AM of Antifa showing up in Leipzig....to block Monday night's protest march against rising energy costs.  If true, what you'd have are Monday night protest groups (AfD led), meeting with anti-protest folks (Antifa, being left-wing)....with police in the middle.  Based on the appearance....my BS-meter is running around a '6'.  I just don't see pictures of this interaction and wonder if the Antifa group is pure Antifa or faked-up Antifa.

4.  Some German hospitals are suggesting they will be bankrupt soon, over rising energy cost.  German states need to desperately step into the middle of this.

5.  New book going around in Germany....has hyped up German news media.....called the 'The Fourth Power'.  Written by Harald Welzer and Richard David Precht.

Basically, they raise bias by the news media is harming public trust.  

I haven't read the book but I've watched two of the open forums discuss the matter.  They make some key points, in that there is bias going on.  To what extent is the real question. 

Five German News Stories

 1.  Russian uniform shortage reported.  From what I read....as these reservists were activated and brought into 'centers' to prepare for the front.....there were supposed to be 1.5-million uniforms ready to go (likely bought over the past several years).

Well...the uniforms aren't there.

There's an audit being done, and it appears that someone ran-off with the uniforms.  Selling them to various African countries?  I would imagine the uniforms were sold 50-percent the original cost, and flown out.  The guy who made the deals?  He's probably gone now.

Getting new uniforms?  It's possible but you'd have to task China and it's probably going to take a month to come up with quarter-million uniforms.

2.  My local bank (the one that had the gang blow up the ATM in a robbery attempt) has vowed to be back in operation (massive construction and renovation required) by the last day of October.  It's a remarkable amount of destruction that occurred.

3.  The Anne Will Show (public forum, ARD, 9:45 PM, last night)?

Topic was the energy worry.  

I\d say that if you watched until the end....on public forum chatty-nature, it probably led you to be awful worried about this winter, and the financial impact upon your situation in life.  I'd almost suggest to Germans not to watch it.....because of the hint of great of great impact.

4.  Some family 'fight' in a Berlin refugee center....wife is dead.  N-TV says it was a Ukrainian family argument, with the woman murdered in the end (stabbed).  The two kids were apparently witnesses to the murder.

5.  Turkey's inflation rate?  85-percent (highest in 24 years).  

If There Is Not Enough Natural Gas In Germany?

 Plan A is to take the marginal amount left on the table, and turn off industry....meaning the structure of employment in the country crumbles away in a matter of a month or two.

Plan B?  You would probably have certain regions where some natural gas distribution would still exist, and other regions where nothing much flows for a while.  In this case....you'd drag out a electrical heater out of the basement and go the 'old' way.

In my situation?  I have five electrical heaters sitting in the basement.  Some are 1000 watt types....some 2000 watt types.

I'd likely crank up one larger unit and keep the kitchen/dining area mostly heated, with a smaller unit in the bathroom.  In my living room.....I have a Dyson heating unit which is fairly effective.  

My electrical bill?  Oh it'd probably double but for two or three months....this plan would get things to an acceptable point.

I don't think it's the doom and gloom as some like to envision.  You make due, and just wait for mid-March when things start to warm up.  Course, you could always go buy an all-day bus ticket, and just ride buses for most of the day to stay warm.  

German Justice Department Investigating The Baltic Sea Explosions?

 N-TV  this AM.....says that the Justice Minister (Buschmann, FDP) will conduct a formal investigation of the Nord Stream I/II issues.

Where this leads?  I would suggest the government will contract out some pipe company that does underwater episodes, and spend two weeks around the sites.  Lot of pictures.....lot of review of damage around the bottom, and have some report ready by January (my humble view).

At the same time, the Bundeswehr will probably gather up data of Russian ships/subs passing the area around the time-frame.  

Getting to a blame point?  It's hard to see how you could reach a point where a judge and court could assign blame.  I also think that the insurance companies working for GAZPROM would prefer not to pay.  In this case.....they will be forced to pay and then state from that day forward....they will never cover another Russian gas pipeline.  

Odds of repairs?  I would suggest to forget about that angle, or that any Russian deal will ever occur for an entire generation.  The Turks or Greeks or UAE taking the place of Russia?  Yeah....in the end, probably by 2025....there's going to be a 'get-well' point.  

The Effect of Poorly Trained and Poorly Equipped Soldiers

 Since the special operation in Ukraine started up....I've probably poured ninety minutes each week into analayzing the war from open-source reporting.

Some comes from within Russia itself.  Some comes from Russians describing their local economy or the local grocery.  Some comes from non-Russians inside of Russia and giving general descriptions of day-to-day affair, with the evolution underway.  Some comes from Ukrainians in Germany, or Ukrainians still back and fighting.  Amongst this....a lot of video viewing....mostly of damaged buildings and damages after a battle (disabled tanks).

I have a special category which I've termed....effects of poor training/crappy equipment, which I tend to shake my head over.

Boot-camp for Conscripts is mostly a brief orientation thing....then a unit exercise.  This is your first two months.  At the end of the 12 months of conscription.....you go home and your one-year of duty is ended.  

If you tried to equate this to a US Marine?  Boot-camp is 13 weeks, and for the most part....another 12 weeks of some type of hands-on/arms training occur....with your specialty training  coming after that.  A Marine could write up a list of the 100 bad scenarios to run into, and he's got the talent to handle most all of these, with brief guidance given by 'Sarge'.  That's not what the Russian conscript gets or receives.

If you look at a lot of the battles in Ukraine....the Russians did poorly because they didn't have conscripts ready for the action required.  But added to this....the equipment wasn't as great as you'd expect.  Same for combat rations, gear, etc.

So here's the thing....every single weakness for the Russians that US intelligence suggested for forty-odd years?  You know.....the ones that no one really wanted to believe?  Well....in seven months, they've all been proven true.

The Russians want to fight a normal 1945 land-battle, with tanks.....and they've practiced that way for decades.  If you refuse to fight the 1945 land-battle?  Then their key strength is zeroized.

What strength is left?  Well....nuke warfare.  Even if you display this option....then what?  In the mid-1990s, as the Soviet Empire dissolved.....there was an agreement on paper that various 'republics' of the USSR would hand their nukes over to Russia and the 'republics' would be pure (without nuke weapons).  Most everyone assumes that the Ukraine was honest and the audit was clear at the end.  If the Ukraine retained rockets or element of nuke weapons?  That's the problem left now.....wondering if Ukraine stayed pure/clean or cheated in some way.

The odd factor of this nuke chatter?  Basically, you come to admit that you (Russia) worked up a 2nd-rate military system, and probably were not even capable of taking on a marginal border country.  And in the process of your demonstration.....you actually craved-up or dissolved probably 50-percent of your best assets, and maybe 50,000 conscripts were buried to prove your worthless point.   Then you add this one problem in explaining this.....these evil 'Nazis' that are openly discussed daily.....seem to be even stronger than your own army? 

Presently?  Even the conscripts admit this problem in training and equipment.  

Putin's bluff?  There's nothing much left now.  

Parking Fine Story

 There are certain grocery chains in Germany now.....which have a 'parking-rule' (roughly 60 minutes of free parking), and once you exceed that....you could get a parking ticket. 

Logic to this?  Over the years, public parking has become a problem, and most grocery chains will admit that their parking lot is 'limited'.  Most try to not to enforce the rule.

So I noticed via a Focus article today....so retired lady had overstayed her 'hour' and got a ticket.  The grocery?  LIDL  Cost?  50 Euro.  How much she violated the rule?  106 minutes in the grocery.....meaning 46 minutes over the limit.

Yeah, she's pretty pepped-up over the fine. 

The problem here for LIDL....this got into national press coverage, and there's going to be some negative coverage over this.  

So when you travel to some German grocery....look for the signs in the parking lot, and if they exist.....you might want to set your timer to only be there 59 minutes or less. 

When Putin Finally Goes

 There are only two scenarios for the exit of Putin: (1) he dies in office, or (2) the DUMA has a wake-up call and feels uneasy about the eventual outcome of the 'special operation' (meaning they can never truly win). 

So what happens and who steps in?

First, the Russian constitution has a text which says for the moment, the Premier (currently Mikhail Mishustin) steps in.  On recognition?  Most Russians will say they've heard of the guy or seen him on TV.  He doesn't have the personality or character to really hold the job.  He's simply a filler....for days, weeks  or months.

So now we go to the four top characters for the job:

1.  Nikolai Patrushev.   He's what I could consider a super-plus-filler....meaning he could take the job for the remainder of the six-year period.  This means he'd be there until the March 2024 national presidential election.  

Low-key guy?  Yeah.  Former boss of the FSB group, and current the secretary of the Security Council of Russia.

He might toss his name in for the 2024 election.  

2.  Dmitry Medvedev.  'Friend' of Putin, and served as President when Putin had hit his max on consecutive terms.  

His plus-side?  57 years old and had the job before.  Negative?  Whatever brand Putin sold.....Medvedev sells the same brand.  

3.  Dmitry Patrushev.  He's what I would call a Russian-Bill Clinton (educated, gifted speaker, economics expert, son of a FSB 'boss', and is still in his mid-40s) type.

If you wanted someone to repackage the Russia brand and get back on some good scale with the US/Europe....then this is the only guy that meets the massive amount of requirements.

4.  Finally, I come to the odd character....Moscow's Mayor, Sergei Sobyanin.  For a dozen-odd years, he's had the job.

He did a number of things which surprised residents of Moscow.  When he walked in.....he more or less asked.....what can I do to make Moscow on equal footing to London or Berlin or Amsterdam?  The public gave him a list of hundreds of things, and he went to work.

If you left Moscow in 2000, and came back today.....it's not the same city.  It has evolved in a massive way.  The landscaping, the parks, and transportation hub rivals any European city now.

I wouldn't describe him as a Putin, but he's sold the public that changes can occur, with marginal corruption in the middle.  If you wanted a results guy.....he's it.  

I would add this observation about who steps in......neither the insider or outsider Oligarch folks will be given much of a 'vote' in this election.  If you did....I think most would want things to go back to the old ways.....with natural gas flowing into Germany, and open doors throughout Europe and the US.  

Tactical Nuke Use To Occur?

 Six months ago, I believed the war would never go to this level.  Presently?  I'd say Russia is rapidly losing equipment, and disenchantment back in Russia is growing.

I'm of the mind that within the next two months....Putin will approve the use of tactical nuke (something in the 1 kiloton range).  Kill radius?  About 300 yards.  It'd be the type of weapon that you'd aim at a key communications facility, a railway network, or a ammo warehouse system.

By missile?  No.....I think the Russians at this point are worried about how this event will go, and I think it'll be trucked in Ukraine, and placed at some site, with a timer set, and some 'hint' to come an hour later from the Kremlin.....just saying more to come if you don't appear at the table.

What happens next?  I have this suspicion that the Ukraine probably has a weapon or two in their arsenal, and they might be crazy enough to launch this....against some border village in Russia....saying they might have hundreds more of these.

What happens then?  The Europeans freak-out big time, and President Biden calls Putin to say this leads to something 'more'.  

Living in Germany....would I be worried about fallout....from 1 single bomb of a 1 kiloton range? No.  

What I would be worried about....if the Russians got real stupid and launched five or six of these into Kiev.  That would reset the whole attitude in Germany, and create a problem that cannot be easily resolved.

Five German News Stories: Saturday

 1.  German embassy and consulate operations in Georgia and Kazakhstan  a large number of Russians showing up and asking for asylum.  Appointments are full for the next week.

Germany has openly discussed the idea of a policy on Russians who ask for asylum....although nothing has been said much in public.

2. Putin, in some weird commentary, accuses Europe of Satanism.  Can't figure the context of the idea and where he got the 'brand'.

3  For those who might have been stationed around Frankfurt in 1960s-1970s-1980s....the Binding Brewery has shut-down in the city.  A second brewery in Offenbach still operates....for the time being.

4.  Lot of hype about heat not being turned on yet in German schools.  Focus carried an article about this issue.

State, by state.....things are done differently on the use of heat in schools.  

5.  This past week, the Chancellor (Scholz) had Covid.  He was holding out in his Bundestag office area (40 square meters), with meals brought to him.