The Price of Peace

 Odd story laying there this AM....probably 95-percent chance of BS....but the US is not having any luck in getting the Ukraine to peace talks.  Chief problems? Russia wants territory....the chunk of land that they currently occupy in SE Ukraine...mostly occupied before the war...by ethnic Ukraine-Russians.  Ukraine says 'NO'.

Adding to this...Russia wants a statement that NATO will never approve Ukraine's entry....which the US itself would be agreeable....but the EU says otherwise.

So the odd story goes to this 'end'....the US will just quit the talks...quit talking to Ukraine, and end 'support' (it's not clear if they mean cash-flow or military support).

So to  further complicate this odd story....European leaders are in talks...considering this idea of dumping $2.34 trillion in US bonds/debt if Trump abandons Ukraine.

How they'd dump the bonds....without seriously damaging their own economy?   Unknown.  You would see a massive US and Europe stock market drop.

I'm not really buying into this story....way too much BS.

I don't really buy into Italy or Germany taking this type of step....both are lightly stepping through a recession at present.  The UK leadership?  They might be this stupid. Macron of France has a finance/economics background....I can't see him this stupid.

I'll just add this final comment....were this to happen....the US would exit NATO (removing troops).  It might require a year....but they wouldn't maintain a presence.  For Russia...maybe this was the end-game strategy (since day one of the war). 

BSW Party Looking For A Recount?

 Why is BSW Pursuing a Vote Recount for the 2025 German Federal Election?

Well...the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) Party, a left-populist party founded in 2024 by former Left Party leader Sahra Wagenknecht...is aggressively challenging the results of Germany's 23 February 2025, federal election. The party narrowly missed the 5-percent national vote threshold required for Bundestag seats, securing only 4.981 percent.....a shortfall of about 9,529 votes. This failure excluded BSW from parliament despite strong regional support in eastern states like Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg, where it had won 11-16% in prior state elections.

So....is it serious?  

Isolated recounts in roughly 250 polling stations (North Rhine-Westphalia, Marzahn-Hellersdorf in Berlin) uncovered around 1,300 additional BSW votes per station. BSW estimates a full recount could add up to 30,000 votes, enough to cross 5-percent.

In polls....one out of three Germans say....yeah, go ahead and recount.

The court is up now....reviewing data, and will issue a ruling.

Problems?  If the recount occurs, and they find 10,000 votes....they have to be given seats in the Bundestag....but here is the bigger  issue.....the CDU-CSU and SPD coalition would NOT have sufficient numbers for their coalition.....Merz  would have to invite the Greens, or Linke,  or BSW to join as well.

If you thought things were rough now....go try to imagine a new and broader  coalition.  

The funny aspect?  Court orders a recount, and they find sufficient votes....plus 1....to force a new coalition. 

The Impending Decline Of The German Car Industry

I watched a piece off N-TV this AM....done by Wulf Stolle in "Der Spiegel."

The general end-results? Starting in 2035, car manufacturers in the EU will be prohibited from selling new conventional combustion engine vehicles (gas/diesel).  And the industry is giving a warning of a impending slump.

Added to the commentary.....China is overtaking Europe.

Yeah....it's a crappy period approaching for VW, Audi, BMW, Ford, Mercedes and Opel.

The push going on...to dump the 'ban'?  I would suggest it's a big deal for 2026/2027....with the Chancellor forced into a confrontation.

Steinmeier's Term (End)?

 Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD Party) was elected President of Germany on 12 February 2017, and took office on March 19, 2017, after his predecessor Joachim Gauck's term ended. 

He was re-elected on February 13, 2022, and began his second five-year term on March 19, 2022. 

By the German constitution (Article 55), each term lasts five years, so his current term ends on March 19, 2027.

In case  you were wondering the vote-process....it's by the Bundestag/Landestag...not a public vote.

Toward the end of 2026....a discussion will start up.  The CDU-CSU....is probably in a position where they want their guy/gal to win.  The SPD, Greens and Linke Party?  They can only mount a roughly 38-percent of the Bundestag votes.  Sadly....the CDU-CSU...can only get their candidate in position...if the AfD were to support them.  I wouldn't  expect that.

So the CDU-CSU...really need a compromise candidate....to get the SPD to support....or go clearly to a SPD-candidate (again).

If I were betting?  SPD-candidate....again....to win.

Four Humble Thoughts Over The Ukraine-Russia 'War'

1.  Warfare is permanently changed.  Anti-tank weapons and drones are the future.

2.  Russia on day one...was totally prepared to fight a 1960s/1970s tank war/invasion (like the Warsaw Pact strategy).   Ukraine said 'NO'....downsizing the modern inventory of tanks/APCs...by 90-plus percent.

3. If you can't manufacture replacement equipment....your strategy to 'win' is non-existent.

4.  Drafting some 'kid' and giving them four weeks of boot-camp/combat training....worked in 1914 and 1940....it no longer works today.

3 Nov 2025: Germany: 3 Things

 1.  German  police (this AM) arrested two suspected ISIS terrorists in Trier and Delbrück, the Federal Prosecutor General announced.

2. Saturday evening in Wiesbaden....at the Christmas market....around 7:30 PM (wife and I walked out around 7:10 PM)....some argument started up at a stall....maybe alcohol involved.  Two guys.....both early 20s....leads to a fight.  One pulls a tear-gas cannister on the other....dumps irritant on the guy....also two customers and two stall operators.  Police got called....ambulance required.

3.   Reported...30,000-plus cases in German emergency rooms...daily.  Highest level ever.

War Chatter

 Vladimir Putin warned today....that Russia is ready to go to war with all of Europe if that’s the path European leaders choose.

BS?  At some point....he spoke to the idea....that facing Europe would be nothing like fighting Ukraine.

If I were guessing.....he'd stage a missile attack (non-nuclear)...maybe forty in one evening...to scare the crap out of Europeans.

In 24 hours....realization would occur....no one in Europe is really ready for war.

Potential Ban On Private Fireworks?

 Interior Minister this week....has serious pressure to ban private  fireworks....31Dec2025.

Various groups supporting a ban.

If you asked me....it's a bit too late...grocery stores have already ordered and will be receiving their order shortly after Xmas.

Even if you ban them....you can cross the border into Poland/Hungry to buy there.