If Merz Goes

The clock ticks.....I'd say it's 50-50 whether Merz is gone by the next election. 

My five CDU likely candidates replacing him as Chancellor?

1. Hendrik Wüst (Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia)

2. Jens Spahn (Union parliamentary group leader / former Health Minister).

3. Daniel Günther (Minister-President of Schleswig-Holstein).

4. Carsten Linnemann (CDU General Secretary / key cabinet figure).

5. Julia Klöckner (President of the Bundestag / former Agriculture Minister).

If you were looking for  a finance/economics 'geek'....NONE of  them fill the bill.

I Bought Gas Today

 Had to fuel-up the car....23 liters of E-10 fuel....2.18 Euro a  liter.

Just over 50 Euro.

I told the wife at this rate....if the car could burn on vodka....would be cheaper to buy vodka at the grocery.

TV news guy brought up....German gov't for March....collected just over 300 Million Euro 'extra' for fuel tax revenue.   At present pace.....he figured German gov't would  collect almost 800-to-900 million extra for April, if nothing happens.

UK chatter?  They have enough jet fuel to keep  the current flight schedule on-track through the end of April....maybe a week into May.  Then.....rationing and flight-cuts have to occur.

Germans haven't said much....but I expect some type of warning by the end of April, and some flight cuts likely to be announced by mid-to-late  May.   Lufthansa went and said around  two-dozen planes are going  to be parked shortly....flight schedule to be curtailed.

Course....pressure is building.  

Odd news item?   Well....Russia has hinted in some way....they might bring naval  ship presence into the Gulf, and aide the US in securing safe passage.   If you did the  schedule....it'd take at least three weeks for a Russian  frigate or two  to arrive.

How Trump Will Break The Leaving-NATO News

 I don't think he'll say we are 'leaving' or exiting.  He'll just say....base-by-base....lessening of troops.....till the point that there's just a thousand or so military members left in Europe.

Congress will attempt to stop him (no doubt).....but he'll just keep saying 'we-intend-to-stay' until the number of troops reaches a thousand.

This knee-jerk reaction of European countries?  Well....they don't have the cash flow to increase their military. 

If I were Putin.....I'd talk all day long about the threat....forcing them to spend money unnecessarily.

2 April 2026: Germany: 5 Things

 1.  CDU-CSU parties.....meeting and discussing the 2-year 'grade' for  cannabis-legalization.....proclaiming it a failure, and wanting  to dump it.

Basically....illegal sales still continue on (not a shock).  Pro-cannabis folks aren't going to accept this idea.

2.  Noted a Merz poll this AM....only one out of seven voters 'happy' with his performance.....roughly 84-percent in some state of unhappiness.

3.  Yes, there is a Good-Friday movie ban list.....which the networks are told not to  run certain movies (I noted Atomic Blonde, Mad Max and Rambo were on the list).  Around 700 listed movies.  Streaming video services are not under the rule.

4.  SPD to lowest level in polling....12-percent.  

5.  In case you were wondering  about German gas prices relating to higher taxation....YEAH, the system is rigged in such a manner.  Tons of money pouring into the tax revenue pot.

Last Night: German Network TV

 Two things.

First, I sat and watched a unusual commercial....60-second piece.  Are you uninspired?  Are you lacking 'drive'?  Are you wandering aimlessly?  

It's roughly 50-seconds of this, and then they hint....you could find relief in the Bundeswehr (German Army).

Recruitment ad.

It is one of the best recruitment ads I've ever seen.

Second, both ARD/ZDF (the two public networks)....both hyped up the wolf episode in Hamburg (having bitten a German gal on the face in a store).  On the prime 8 PM news....it got a full 60 seconds.

The Fuel Crisis?

 Yesterday....I assessed the cost of E-10 fuel....forty Euro-Cents above what it was four weeks ago.  There's no shortage....at least in Germany.  But if you said the tanker business continues another month....then yeah, there's probably a shortage to  come.

Just a humble guess....but a  liter will likely hit 2.40 Euro within two weeks.

The odd thing....the EU came out and strongly suggested for this summer....not to plan massive trips....meaning driving or flying.

Lufthansa also came out and said....they are putting around 20 to 30 of their planes in storage status....because of impending fuel shortages.

My Thoughts: US Exiting NATO

 First.....remembering this is a Trump era....I'd write this as a 'show'.

I'd list NATO bases....just saying we are going to achieve zero-carbon on each  installation, with one exception.  

I'd keep around one single 3-star general, with a staff of 1,000 to 1,200...either in Stuttgart, Wiesbaden or Ramstein.

Then I'd talk about participation in exercises in Europe....but limit it to just five or six countries.  I wouldn't waste effort with the UK or Spain.

I'd hype up the zero-carbon thing....saying how it was a positive thing.

I'd tell NATO....if they ever were attacked by Russia....we'd send 'something' but I wouldn't really say what.

I'd take all those assets in Europe and transfer them to the Pacific....beefing up where I'd anticipate the next war.

Diego Garcia?  I'd convince locals to break the UK contract, and sign up a deal with us.

I'd write up a new special medal.....Cold War II....starting 27 December 1991, to today.  I'd give every GI on duty in Europe.....a 3-day pass for achieving 'peace'.

I'd go and meet with Putin and let him know.....those EU folks are crazy enough to buy your natural gas/oil.....to help you rebuild your military over the next ten years.   Don't goof this....would be my key advice to him.

NATO....script-wise....has achieved Star Wars success....nothing left to tell (of a story). 

The Word 'Übrigens'

 It's not a common word that you hear.....loosely translated....the meaning is 'by-the-way'.  Germans will use it to start a sentence....to say something 'extra' about the situation or problem..

Germany/Syrians

 I looked up the numbers for Syrians residing in Germany....on a deportation order.  At the end of 2025....there were in the 10,500 range.

Of this number....around 900 are on a 'tolerance' situation.  Of the remaining....it's mostly due to practical barriers, ongoing procedures, or humanitarian reasons.  

So if you use the 1.2-million total....roughly 99-percent are not on a deportation list.

From my German language class era....I had several conversations with Syrians.  I found most to be educated....enthusiastic about Germany...and not that hyped-up over religion.  

Oddly....the only ones with a serious desire to return to Syria....it's mostly those over age 50.  From age 30 and down....virtually no one seemed interested in ever returning to Syria.  This was the crowd actively seeking jobs....getting certified in skills, and getting a driver's license.

I'll be blunt....maybe the deport-folks will all be gone by the end of 2026...but I doubt that you see more than 50,000 leave by 2030 (total).

31 Mar 2026: Germany: 10 Things

 1.  Merz met yesterday with Syrian President.   Agreement.....over 4 years....around 800k of the 1.2-million Syrians in Germany to 'return' home.

Up front....if you were Syrian and on a deportation list....you go shortly (at least that's the Merz understanding).

If you asked me....of the 1.2-million, roughly half have solid jobs, and marginal interest in returning.  So I'm not buying into the 800k number.

Also of interest....Greens/SPD went highly negative on this announcement.

2.  Digital rape/violence case in Spain against Ulman?  Dumped....by Spanish prosecutor. German case is the only avenue possible at this point.

Odd way of wording by the Spanish prosecutor....couldn't find a competent standing....even though it occurred in his/her local district. 

3. Center of Hamburg....cops called.....local gal bit (in the face) by wolf.  Cops cornered the wolf.....malnourished and thin.  Being fed now, and will be released into a wooded area later.

4.  Spain has now blocked US military aircraft from its airspace and denied access to the Rota and Morón bases over the Iran conflict.

So....I'll just predict....about a  month or two after Iran's mess is settled....the two bases are permanently vacated by the US....declared of no use.   Probably the beginning of several US installations 'gone'.

5.  N-TV ran a German grid story.....bottlenecks are a serious issue now.....grid is apparently a decade behind on infrastructure renovation.

6. Couple of European countries having a gas-shortage....limiting customers to 30 liters of fuel per day.  Hasn't  been brought up in Germany...yet.

7. The Green Environment Minister of Rhineland-Palatinate praises "swarm power plants" in the Rhine as a solution to the energy transition problem.

Basically....you'd anchor these and as the river moved.....blades on the swarms would turn  to generate power.

Key issue?  Well.....you'd need a massive swarm of these units to get any real production.

8.  14-year-old German kid stabbed in front of his school in Hamburg Flottbek. 

9. German inflation jumped in March to 2.7-percent from 1.9-percent previously.

10.  From Sunday night....the ARD public forum-talk show "Caren Miosga"..... achieved the lowest ratings since September 1, 2025.

Topic for the show?   Collien Fernandes.

Approximately 2.21 million viewers watched the episode, in which Fernandes gave a talk of her accusations against her ex-husband Christian Ulmen.

Among the total audience, the market share of the current Miosga episode was 10.8 and almost 20 percentage points lower than that of the previous show...."Polizeiruf 110." Among 14- to 49-year-olds, only 330,000 Germans watched the show.

To be honest....I spent the evening watching 'Lets Dance' and as it concluded....went to a cooking show.  So I can't comment on the effect of the show.  

30 Mar 2026: Germany: 3 Things

 1.  I'll just say it....from a non-German prospective...this Ulmen-Fernandes situation/scandal/exposition/affair....over a two week period....seems to be in a hype-up media (news) 'bubble'.

I suspect if you drag this up with a hundred working-class Germans....roughly 50 to 60 of them can't really explain the nature of the situation,  And if you did package this into a 45-minute news-docu-type deal to explain the fourteen-odd details of the situation....they'd lose interest after eight minutes.

2. For about ten days, we've had this whale-problem in the Baltic Sea region of Germany.  

The whale originally got so near up on the beach....that  he lodged himself on a sandbar, and was 'stuck' (he couldn't wiggle out).

Germans....naturally good rescue folks....decided they could help him.  A crew of  characters....some science folks and some engineer types....got a vessel to dig around the sandbar and eventually got him 'loose'.  So they thought....now, he'll swim off to safety.

Well...for a brief period....maybe eight to  twelve hours, he lingered around and got sand-barred again. 

Again,  they pushed him out.

They've noted yesterday....he just ain't progressing out to sea. 

Oddly, they haven't named him (something Germans do when they are hard-wired to linger on the animal). 

3.  Germany has a Construction Ministry.  Over the weekend...the minister in charge suggested that at the federal level...they should be become a 'developer' (buying, designing,  and  hiring up construction teams to build the houses/apartment buildings).

On paper, it sounds like a marvelous idea.

The history of local, state and federal type projects?  Pretty dismal.

Q-and-A: German Public TV

 1.  Monthly cost presently?  18.36 Euro a month....doesn't matter how many TVs or radios you have in the house.

2.   Locations of Channel 1 (ARD) and Channel 2 (ZDF)?  ARD  - Hamburg.  ZDF - Mainz.

3.  Is there any real difference on news content?  Personal opinion....if you watch both....it's about sixty-percent of the same stuff....told slightly different. 

4. How many Germans watch ARD prime news (8 PM) on average?  Around 9.5-million....out of 84-million residents.

5.  Are there Germans who go out of their way NOT to watch ARD or ZDF?  Curiously, this topic has been studied....around 5-to-5.5-million are dedicated to watch no programming whatsoever. 

6.  Does ARD or ZDF have an 'edge' over the other?  Oddly....data suggests a 2-percent edge to more ZDF viewers....over ARD viewers.  Reason?  ZDF has a fair amount of soap-opera cop shows and  mountain-doctor-clinic shows around 6 PM to 8:15 PM, and older viewers are more consumed to watch this.

Forced To Travel

 The wife wants a week in Berlin for end of April.  So....ok....I did the price comparison to get there.

1st-class ICE train....there and back....880 Euro for two.  My trust in ICE getting me  there and back with NO issues?  Near 10-percent.

2nd-class Lufthansa mid-afternoon tickets...380 Euro for two (round-trip)...flying out of Frankfurt. But they wanted 70 Euro per bag...per person (that was my only grumble).  

Each has a assigned risk factor.  

You have to get to the Frankfurt airport...on a Sunday.  My wife is anti-taxi, and normally anti-bus/tram.  Once there....you have to do the bag-drag....then pass security.

The railway there?  You have to assume the local train will 'work' but some screw-up on ICE will occur. The snack-wagon on ICE?  Crap. 

Lufthansa or Bahn strike?  Well...you factor in this problem as well.

If you rode the train into Berlin....then you have the broke escalator issue going on, and the crime scene at the station  to contend with (same or more so....for Frankfurt).

I told the wife....would be a lot simpler to fly into Egypt.

29 Mar 2026: Germany: 5 Things

 1.  Since day one of this Christian Ulmen/ e-wife Collien Fernandes 'affair'....if you start counting....there are probably over one-hundred odd factors.  No matter who is telling the story....they all tend to leave about 90-percent of these factors out. 

German prosecutor attempting to take a Spain case....back into Germany and bring  Ulmen into court?  Mostly a bluff  (at this point).

2.   Starting 1 Apr...Heavy smokers will be 'entitled' to a free annual lung cancer screening examination.

Active and former smokers aged 50 to 75 can undergo a low-dose computed tomography (NDCT) scan every 12 months. 

Free?  Well....it'll be covered by your standard German statutory health insurance.

My gut feeling....lot of folks are going to be given negative news over their future health condition.

3.  Also starting 1 Apr....the Federal Ministry of Transport launches a new funding program for electric vehicle charging stations in apartment buildings. 

Around 500 million euros are available to install wallboxes, grid connections, and other technical equipment. 

Now....will apartment building owners want to do this?  I suggest they will review hazard reports and increased insurance costs....with a majority declining the hook-up.

4.  A fire broke out overnight in Kehl, near the border with Strasbourg.  Around 3AM.....Disco/lounge...club with 750 partygoers was on fire.

Shocker?  Every single person made it out.

Nuke Energy Discussion

 In the past week....Germany's Energy Minister commented: 'The phase-out of nuclear power was a huge mistake.'

So I'll lay out the whole story....as simply as I can.

Around  1990, as DDR ended....Kohl's people went to find East Germans who could fit into the CDU strategy....for political motives.  They eventually came to the conclusion....Merkel was 'it'.  She was invited for a coffee....Kohl had found his 'Eastie', and history is concreted  down.

The job for CDU bureaucrat Merkel?  Well.....she was a scientist...so the Energy Minister was the obvious job.

What she discovered  over the next year.....Germany's plan to bury nuke-waste....was not really supported by any state, and most science-minded folks felt it was 'wrong'. The path?  You'd have to eventually take down the nuke energy sector.  

To make up for this?  You'd run coal-plants, bump up solar/wind, and have some reserve energy via cheap Russian natural gas.

Kohl goes away....the SPD runs things  briefly.....Merkel builds her path to the Chancellor-job.

In this decade...it's decided that coal  is 'evil'.

Eventually....a massive amount of suffering funds (identified in the 30-to-35 billion Euro range) is put up....to shut down the coal 'pits' and coal energy sector....to retrain workers (particularly in the NW part of Germany).  But don't worry....wind/solar are bumped up, nuke energy still flows, and cheap Russian natural gas is covering the end of coal-energy.

Fukushima occurs.  Over a 2-to-3 year period....it's decided that evil-nuke-energy must end. There's some talk of keeping two or three around....but that plan gets dumped.  Don't worry....wind/solar get bumped up and cheap Russian natural gas covers things.

Then the war happen....with evil-Russia and Ukraine.  That strategy craps out  for natural gas.

So what you have is wind/solar, and on a really bad day....you go to the EU grid, and consume/buy power from  France  or 'friends'....at a hefty rate.  That grid-power....being nuke or coal?  Its best not to  bring that up.

So cherries on this cake?

Well....Bavaria (the state) would like to have a nuke-plant (or two)....the federal gov't said 'NO'....only they can authorize such.  Why does Bavaria want the nuke plants?  They realized that power requirements for industry are expanding.

More?  Austria has designed their nuke-energy burial sit....deep down....about five miles from the German border (Bavaria).....yeah, and this made the Germans angry.

More?  More and more of the high-energy consumer companies are reviewing the idea of exiting Germany....for cheaper grid countries.

Home price for power (2026) in Germany?  Around 37 Euro cent per kWh.  Some folks have exceptional long-term deals at 24  to  27 cents.

Homes hooked up for solar?  German authorities at the end of 2024 said it was 15-percent, with expectations by 2030 of 25-percent.  The problem to dispose of panels?  Yet-to-be-brought-up......but it'll shock some folks when the recycle yard starts quoting 200 Euro per panel.

It's not a happy story over what happened to nuke energy, and it's fairly amusing to look at German neighbors who didn't fall for the 'trap'.

The Trump 'Leave-Germany' Chatter

 A Brit newspaper brought up the topic....some insider to the Trump talk.

The story goes......Trump's team are evaluating removing troops from Germany, and re-establishing them in either Romania or Poland.

So I sat and pondered over the idea.

From a German prospective....there's two groups eyeballing this. One group knows  that the Pfalz state is highly dependent on the money spent....with the Wiesbaden and Stuttgart areas....lesser  concerned.  On the second group....they are highly anti-US and would  like for the troops to be gone. In general....I'd say sixty-percent of German society don't care one way or another.

K-Town/Landstuhl? Financially.....if the US totally left....it's a massive 'hole' that would exist, and you can figure a full decade of  suffering to be occurring.

As for leaving?   Poland would be a fifty-fifty situation....with some elements of society very much supporting the arrival, and another group disliking it.

My general prediction?  The Air Force only has three elements left in Germany....Spangdahlem and Ramstein.  The wing at Spang could easily be moved into Poland....figure about four years to build the base.  Ramstein?  Different story....you have the medical facility (yet to be completed), the  C-130 wing for cargo, and the HQ's.  

Ramstein since the 1980s....have built a  massive structure, and tens of billions invested for the extra-long haul.

The next-war mentality?   Today....it's totally geared toward China/Taiwan.

So I suspect....at the end of this review....Spang's element moves to Poland, and Ramstein remains 'mostly-as-is'.

On the Army business?  Some parts of what exists could easily move to Romania or Poland.

Germans grumbling?  Some might  grumble, but the majority will not care, or actually support the 'end'.

28 March: Germany: 5 Things

 1.  Over the past month....if you watch economic news in Germany....the chemical industry is telling the Merz coalition.....they can't afford the grid-price on electricity.

The various hints being given?  Rather than resolve the grid 'mess'....there's some suggestion going on....where the general public would subsidize electricity prices for the chemical industry. 

Adding another reason for  more taxes?  Yeah.

My solution? Give up producing chemicals in Germany, and ship all production to China.  If you ask me....this was a designed strategy to trigger public discontent, and ship jobs overseas.

2. Federal Council meeting on hunting of wolves to be allowed....from yesterday.  Expected to be 'permits' shortly.

3.  Austria, Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark and Greece have formed what I'd call a 'deportation coalition'. They are careful on wording but they want a couple  of 'hubs' to  serve as migrant deportation return  centers.

Who are the hubs?  I'd imagine 'dirt-poor' countries that can be enticed.  

Looking at the five....I'd take a humble guess that together....they have in the 400,000 range to 'deport'.

This will involve cash to some degree....you agree to take 10,000....you get 3,000 Euro (my guess) for each one taken.  30-million Euro to settle. 

The three problems here?  Court action to prevent the hub-situation....deportees arriving in x-country on a Monday, and headed back to Germany by Friday.....and most of the poverty countries giving a limit of 10,000 per year (meaning it'll take a decade to  resolve this mess).

But here's  the selling point....if you can make this work...AfD's brand diminishes.

4. Federal Transport Minister Patrick Schnieder (CDU) gave a talk on the Bahn (railway system).  In simple  terms....he says its so screwed up that people are losing confidence that it can ever be 'fixed'.

As a occasional rider....I'll just say that the Bahn has become awful technical, and there are a thousand components....which any one can break and be a safety issue. I might add....of thirty-odd rides since early 2025 for me....at least six have been screwed up (minimum of thirty minutes late).  Back in 2019....on a trip into Frankfurt....the train halted in the tunnel system...unable to proceed because the train in front of us had already broke.  We sat for a good 45 minutes there in the tunnel.

5.  Chatter started yesterday....state-regulated fuel prices being discussed.

Politicians are convinced that the 'system' is rigged for profit.  If you view it from opposite view....six  different taxes are at play, and each time the fuel advances 10-cents....taxation advances as well.  Germans aren't stupid....they will figure out this 'game'.

One Odd Thing I Noticed Yesterday

The EU had a talk this week....then rejected 'chat control' of all internet communications.

What this leaves the Merz coalition?  Well....probably to have a German law where  all messenger services are checked/audited/reviewed by the police. 

I paused over this....thinking....the only way the police could cover such a massive 'empire'....is by hiring AI-companies to sort through the mess.

I'd suggest various contracts to be signed shortly....commercial companies selling intelligence-gathering software.  

Five Random Thoughts

 1.  When the 2029 German national election rolls around....the Greens, Linke and AfD parties will  have around 65-percent of the vote....meaning that the CDU-CSU and SPD will only be able to mount a 35-percent vote (combined). I'm suggesting this because of current trends and economic woes. It'll be a CDU-CSU coalition deal....but connected to the SPD, and Greens....to reach the 50-percent point.

2.  By the end of 2027, Germany will have a law in place...requiring textile companies and  German stores....must pay for disposal of clothing. Meaning?  That 7-Euro t-shirt you might buy....will have to be priced at 7.25 Euro....to cover disposal cost.  Germans will actively go into Poland, Italy and France....to buy cheaper clothing.

3.  If you really look into it....the current gov't is actively pursuing at least five different  'reform' programs, and making various promises....which will likely never be delivered.

4. Three German states are asking for a fuel-profit tax.  If you sell fuel, and make excessive profits (by the state belief)....a tax would occur.  I'll just go and predict....fuel shortages start to occur, as deliveries lessen in those three states.

5. It's reaching a point where German juveniles/teenagers actively joke about reality, the government, and regulation.

27 Mar 2026: Germany: 10 Things

 1. EU Parliament voted in favor of deporting illegal migrants to "return hubs" outside the European Union yesterday.

Now.....don't get excited....they didn't say the location of the hubs.

I would imagine they will advertise the situation, and five to ten countries will say....'lets-make-a-deal'.  Deal-period? It'll take three years minimum to rig up the  situation, and you (the EU) would have to pay some amount (guessing 100k Euro) for each person.

On the positive side....if ever made to work....most of  AfD's numbers would diminish.

For the guys on the deportation list?  Well....your upscale German lifestyle days....has a end coming...eventually.

2.   WELT polling....in some areas of Bavarian (the more wealthy districts)....AfD is polling locally at 57-percent.  Rest of the state....back down in the 10-to-15 percent range.   CSU is having an image problem.

3.  Bundestag passes law....gas prices at stations can ONLY change once per day.  Personal opinion....this law probably will only last 12 months...before being dissolved.

4.  WELT piece....by Gunnar Schupelius...."Do ARD and ZDF even take seriously what is happening here in Germany?".

Analysis of the public TV duo....with economic news.  Broad failing grade given....networks have a host of experts without real attention/focus on the nation itself.

5.  For about 10 years....there's this married couple (the Allgäu region) who are  alleged to have stolen coins from parking meters.  Amount?  Roughly 1.9-million Euro...

Local public prosecutor's office are charging the two. 

The odd part of the story....there's a belief that they stole half-a-million Euro prior to 2015....but the prosecution can't charge on that.

I'm just trying to imagine....walking into a bank weekly....with 2,000 Euro in coins, it's going to be hard to explain this.  

6.  Retailers sent a harsh letter to the head of the Finance for the German gov't....saying upping the VAT (sales tax) from 19-to-21-percent is going to harm the economy.

7.  German mayor gave a talk and uttered 'ghost-road'....I had to go and look it up.

 "Ghost-road" (German: Geisterstraße or Geisterautobahn) in Germany refers to an abandoned, disused, or overgrown road/highway that has been left to decay and is often reclaimed by nature. 

His use?  He suggests that this is a normal practice of the gov't to deliver something, and it's never working as originally advertised.

8.  Survey done (N-24).....suggests that German workers, when under pressure, will perform to show increased productivity....but it's mostly 'staged' (fake).  

9.  N-TV piece:  Ukraine apparently paying drone-pilots 'bonuses' per each Russian wounded, and killed.  You have to show video-evidence.

10.  HR item: 14,000 deer/car accidents are reported in Germany yearly.

Trust

 "If one doesn't trust the voter to be able to judge the problems, then one might as well abolish democracy right away."

-- Dieter Nuhr, Comedian

I paused over reading his quote this AM.  He's discussing and aiming his wit at Germans....but it fits as well for Americans.

Maybe if democracy were 'rocket-science'....you'd require special people to run a gov't.  But if you've been this crazy....'trust' is gone.

Exit Door

  Study done....."Jugend in Deutschland 2026"....trend study by Simon Schnetzer.  So he asked 2,000 Germans aged 14-29 about 'leaving'.

41-percentt consider emigrating out of Germany....with 21-percent having absolute concrete plans to exit.

Reasons?  Economic uncertainty, housing shortages, and political disillusionment.

Where to?  He didn't ask.

I asked AI to assemble exit data last year....with Austria and Switzerland at the top of the list for 'all' Germans as the end-point (not just youth).

A bad sign?  Well....if you  had 100,000 to 200,000 a year (just in the 19-to-29 age group)...yeah, it'd be a problem within 10 years.

Oddly, the coalition of CDU-CSU-SPD....is supposed to have top priority on economic woes and the housing shortage.  Merz is the top 'salesman' for this priority.

Voting Fraud Story

 The CSU mayor Wolfgang Seifert from Wülfershausen stood up today and confessed to having manipulated postal voting documents in several local elections. Police are conducting an investigation.

So I looked  up the population....1,533 total, of which...if you figure those under 18....figuring 75-percent showing up usually....figure around 800-to-900 votes typically....that he would have done some postal-vote fraud.  Just guessing here...but it's probably in the 50-to-75 document range.

No one really says where the votes came from....typically, dead folks are removed within a week or so after a certificate is created.

If you go back 30-odd years....most folks always showed up to vote,  and postal voting was only for military folks or those in old-folks-homes.

Whats the GKV Problem In Germany?

The GKV stands for Gesetzliche Krankenversicherung....is the public/statutory health insurance system (which covers about 90-percent of the population).

Basic isssue.....it has expenditures that are rising much faster than its revenues. This has led to repeated yearly deficits, and what you'd consider as depleted reserves.

I should add here....it's mandatory to participate in the public health insurance (the “Krankenkassen”). 

How contributions work?  Well....they are split between employees and employers (general rate of 14.6-percent with some type of variable additional rate).

Money flows into a central health fund (Gesundheitsfonds) and then is  distributed to the individual 'policy'.

Just about every year....expenditures outpace income....figure 7-percent usually.

Projected deficit of 10-to-15 billion Euro for 2027.

As you can imagine....clinics, doctors and hospitals are under massive pressure to hold costs down.

Why this keeps happening?   Simply a demographic game....retirees, fewer contributors.  Add onto it...medical and technological progress (expensive new treatments)

A special commission is renovate things....bring reform....for 2026.

The Merz coalition left to clean this up?  More or less.  There's simply no funds left to fill the gap unless you bump taxes up in some  fashion.

My final assessment....a tax-reform  will occur, but probably only buy the coalition five to seven years....where this will repeat again.

As for the new tax sources?  VAT going to 21-percent.....a likely sugar tax on sodas....higher-income folks taxed at a higher rate.

How German Public TV And Public Forums 'Work'

 Between ARD/ZDF (Channel 1/2)....they probably have around 8 public forum programs per week....mostly live....sometimes taped.  The sub-networks (like BR or HR)...might have two or three per month....mostly geared toward their state (not the nation).

Basic formula?  You have a moderator, and a guest panel (usually four folks).  The Monday night ARD forum will include 6 folks....geared mostly to 3 folks supporting X and 3 folks opposing X.

For a long while...the formats were geared toward one single 'path'....three guests slamming one single guest who supported X.

If you asked about viewing numbers?  Well....most of these come on at 10 PM or later....so that hinders the viewing numbers to some degree.

For a long while....if you consider the 30-odd forums per month....roughly 20 would dwindle on one topic, and folks started to complain  ('it ain't right to overly demonize things'). The national board managing public TV....told the managers....you gotta talk about other topics.

Do CDU and SPD politicians get the bulk of invites?  Well....I'd say out of the  30-odd forums per month....they each probably get 50-percent of the invites.  Greens and Linke might get 10-percent of the invites.  AfD?  Maybe five invites out of the entire year.

The stumbling points?  Occasionally, they have audience participation episodes....you end up with a regular non-VIP who grasps the topic and blasts through the political BS, and narrative stuff.  

I won't say much critical over the forums...other than when they put up some statistical polling graphic....it might be one-sided or offered with a odd question. 

Yeah, I'm mostly pro-public forum....they put up a fair amount of argument  both ways, and it might be helpful for folks to understand how screwed-up the system really is.  

The odd thing I leave you with....all the gain for AfD in the past ten years?  It was mostly all without them being on the public forums.  Think about that for a minute....the SPD and CDU folks have had tons of time explain their 'brand', and it apparently has not helped much at all.

Three Odd Voting Patterns

 There was a statistical graphic put up....about age-trends for political parties in Germany.

So...first, in the 18-to-29 age group....the top party is AfD with 28-percent of the age group voting for them.  Second group?  Linke....far-left, with 21-percent.  It would be safe to say...almost 50-percent are either far-right, or far-left.

Second, only with ages 60-to-69 or over-70....does the CDU really rise to top-level....with 30-percent of the vote....rising clearly above AfD.  The SPD?  In this age range....they stand at 18-to-19-percent.

Third,  in the 40-and-over age group....the Linke Party never passes 10-percent.  So the older voters aren't really buying into their theme/brand.

Bottom line?  The CDU-CSU 'brand' only really sells well....with older Germans.  Same trend with SPD.....only older Germans buy into them.

Russia Policy

 Russia apparently has started up some state-policy....if a gal doe not want to produce children....she'll get a state-note  to  go to some local psychological counseling.

I pondered over this.

First, it's a bad sign that the population situation is screwed-up.

Second, what exactly is the mental-health doctor going to say?

Third, wouldn't you walk out of the counseling with a negative image....seeking to leave Russia as soon as possible?

Fourth and final....if you failed three or four counseling sessions....would that lead to a month-long hospital visit....to get you 'right'?

25 Mar: Germany: 7 Things

1. VW to sign up to make missile components...on a Israeli deal?  Well...that's what I read last night.  Odd?  They have folks who they were going to dismiss by the end of the year....so they might be staying on.

2. Berlin police raids....four folks....from the grid attack in September of 2025.  Four in their 20s/30s.  So far....they aren't connected to the Berlin massive grid 'down-time' from early in 2026. But I would speculate....cops are looking closely over the crew.

3.  RBB piece: fake social media stays in people's minds?

I read this and  kinda laughed.  US PhD team proved around 2020....bulk of what people read on social media....within 2 to 4 weeks....totally forgotten.  

4. Berlin's Mayor Kai Wegner (CDU guy) yesterday....admitted to "communication errors" during the major power outage at the beginning of 2026.  He said he would like to "apologize to all Berliners" for this, adding that he was "sincerely sorry."

Having watched this....basically he was heavily unfocused on the job/duty.  But....even had he been there/on-duty.....there's not much he could have done.....other than uttering 'it's a mess'.

5.   New drug appearing in Germany....called 'Baller-liquid'.  Built into vape-devices.

6.  Gerhard Schroeder (Chancellor from 1990s, SPD Party)....giving advice.  Party needs bold direction/agenda, and to dump the dual-leadership gimmick (having one male/one female).

7.  N-TV item this AM.....German grocery stores having trouble  finding manpower for the deli-meat departments.

Taking a US Car Through TUV

I wrote this originally in 2013, and looked over it today....updating a thing or two.

Simply advice from an American....to other Americans....when it comes to staying in Germany and trying to take the US car into the German registration business.

First, do everything possible to avoid it.  By the end....you would prefer a root canal job, over maneuvering your US car into a German registration deal.  Buy the Euro spec's car and be happy with no hassle from the TUV guys.

Second, if you decide to go through with this....find yourself a top-notch local mechanic who has done this before.  He knows the checklist and knows generally how to ask for waivers.  Utilize any and all waivers possible when it comes to changing things on the car....from the headlights, to the safety equipment.  The TUV folks do allow waivers, but you need to ask and be diligent on asking for just about everything.   

Third, accept the fact that this might run into the 2k to 3k Euro range, and really not be worth the cost in the end.  If you think your car is only worth $7k now....don't waste your money.  If your US car is worth $18k....and mostly new.....it probably is worth the effort.

Fourth, the sad truth is that each region's TUV office is different and takes to the rules and standards differently.  You could pass one vehicle through a Bavarian area for less than 1k Euro in cost.  The K-town area?  It might be 2.5k Euro in total cost for the same vehicle.

Fifth, once you get it through the system and tagged....don't expect a fair resale value.  If you changed the vehicle drastically....it's just not worth the same amount of money.  So you'd best think of this as a car that you'd like to keep five more years as a minimum.

Sixth, pick-ups have a odd value in re-sale after you put the German tag on.  You might actually find some local German who a year or two later....wants a Ford F-150 pick-up for the actual real value.  So take that for simple advice.

Seventh and final....TUV is final.  If they say a drastic change is absolutely required and a waiver won't be given.....that's the end of the discussion.  The rules run into the hundreds of pages and various rules could be read in different ways.  Don't take it personal if they really slammed your vehicle and put an entire day of mechanical work onto your tasks.

US vehicles sold as new?  Yes, Dodge and a couple of other car companies have made an effort to sell a couple of US-made cars on the German market.....already with full-given TUV.  If you were into this US-car thing and had a year or two before messing with German registration.....maybe this is the better method of getting your vehicle.  My own advice is to buy a German or French-made vehicle and just be happy with no extra paperwork.

Democracy

 My German wife recently tried to tell me that the US is no longer a democracy. For the sake of achieving no argument....I said nothing.

After pondering...I came to this conclusion.

A democracy is a system of government where power ultimately belongs to the people (from the Greek term dēmokratía, where dēmos “people” and  kratos “rule/power”) combine. 

In the real world....this means the people decide who governs them and what the major rules of society are, either by voting directly or by choosing representatives.

The Greeks basically didn't write a rule to say only this status of people, or intellectuals, or idiots could run the democracy.  Maybe they should have....but they figure the system would work with just about any group of people. If you elected some nutcase or fake-intellectual to lead you....you'd wake up and correct things at the next election....admitting you learned a lesson.

In my thought process....I came to four essentials:

1.  You have to have free/fair election  processes.  If you fail on this....voting is a worthless exercise.

2.  Equal law....no one gets extra benefits.

3.  You have to allow criticism.  If you gut free speech....you might as well gut elections at the same time.

4.  Majority rule has to exist.  If X-candidate got 55-percent of the vote....suck it up if you hate the 'winner'.   

Once you suppress dissent or basic freedoms....there is no reality. You simply exist in a fantasy world with marginal landscapes.  

Will I disturb my wife to bring up this discussion? No....she needs to believe in something....even if a false reality.  You wouldn't tell a 6-year old kid that Santa fell off the roof and the ambulance took him to the hospital at 2 AM.

Transportation Chatter

 There's a German term that you see once in a while now...."Autofreie Innenstädte"....basically translated....'car-free-city'.

The meaning?  It means the city spent a lot to create subways, trams, or bus routes....hoping you'd leave the car at home, and go public-trans the whole way.

The negative of this trend?  Well....if you were going to buy strictly a sweater, or to see a doctor....fine, this might work.

If you were buying six to ten items (bulky in nature)....you really have no wish to lug 10 to 20 kg of crap around for three hours in the city.

So what develops out of this....you buy less from downtown....ordering it (to be delivered to your house).

I'm not saying there's a secret agenda here...but it sure suggests some idiot planned this to crap-out downtown German commercial districts/shopping areas.

How things will be in ten years?  I'm pretty sure that parking in Wiesbaden's central region.....will be 12 Euro for two hours....making a harsh reality to venture downtown....other than using the bus.

Interview I Noted Today

 Professor Werner J. Patzelt (political analyst) gave an interview and said: 

"The point is this: now, nothing more can be done on the part of the Union (meaning the CDU) to prevent their further loss of power, because the Union has clearly signaled that, whatever is voted for in the new federal states, they will govern with Social Democrats and/or Greens, or with both, under the toleration of the Left Party, since they absolutely refuse to cooperate with the AfD. And consequently, every voter who does not want center-left politics....not to mention pure left-wing politics......knows that they have no choice left but to vote for the AfD."

I paused over this and pondered.

This center-center stance you see....came after Chancellor Kohl, with Merkel as head of the party.  It's a curious position....because Merkel started to attract SPD-type voters....and in some ways angering the more conservative type voters (like what you'd find in Bavaria).

If you tried to compare the typical Kohl-voter, the Merkel-voter, and the Merz-voter....the CDU folks of today....accept an awful lot of agenda items that Kohl's group would not have supported.

Reversing out of this?  I don't think it's possible.

If you had some other option....other than the CDU or AfD?  Well....the chief issue of migrants/deportations...steps into the way.  But I would imagine that a quarter of German CDU and AfD voters would at least sit down and listen to a agenda discussion.

Who comes after Merz?  Well...I can name three possible CDU 'bosses' likely:

1.  Hendrik Wüst, Premier-President for NRW

2.  Boris Rhein, Premier-President for Hessen

3.  Daniel Günther, Premier-President for Schleswig-Holstein

Any of the three....appearing Kohl-like?  No.

Speaking for some pro-AfD path?  No.....AfD has a limited agenda list, and it's awful noticeable.  

What Germans mostly want....economical 'strength' similar to what they had in the 1980s....secure jobs....feeling 'safe'....and as little drama in politics as possible. Presently?  They are waiting for the 'Jesus-like' figure/party to arrive and correct the economics situation. 

The Collien Fernandes Scandal?

 Well....the "Collien Fernandes scandal" is a high-profile deepfake/revenge porn case involving German TV presenter, actress, and former VJ Collien Fernandes and her ex-husband, actor/presenter Christian Ulmen. 

If you review the whole case....about two weeks ago....German news outlet Der Spiegel published Fernandes’ interview in which she accused Ulmen of years-long digital sexual abuse. 

Fernandes says....the husband allegedly created fake online profiles and social media accounts in her name.

In this accusation....the guy is accused of producing and distributing AI-generated deepfake pornographic images and videos of Collien. 

These pictures/images were reportedly sent then to other men in the German entertainment industry, along with sexually explicit messages, over a period of more than a decade.

Fernandes then says she had been fighting anonymous online harassment and fake profiles for years (she even made a 2024 TV documentary trying to identify the culprit).  Then at the end of 2024....she apparently figured out that it was her husband who was the mastermind and  behind it....getting him to confess.

So she filed a criminal complaint against him in Spain (where the couple had lived) at the end of 2025. The charges include identity theft, creating fake profiles, violating privacy/secrets, producing deepfake stuff, public insult, repeated threats, and bodily harm. 

Spain's case?  An investigation is ongoing.  At this point....the husband is NOT charged with any crime.

German case?  Briefly, there was a investigation going on....with the public prosecutor asking for 'evidence' and getting none. So in the past week....that German case was dropped.  The Spain case?  Continues on.

My general view?  The husband seems to have gone to a pretty 'far' side in social media BS....with little to gain.  All this Spanish charges stuff?  It seems like he might actually get some jail-time over childish pranks.

24 Mar: Germany: 7 Things

 1. Noted that the Executive Council of the FDP Party all resigned....trying to find a new path on election strategy.   If you can't get 5-percent or more in an election....you get no seats, and no 'respect'.

2.  The statutory health insurance (public healthcare) system is facing a deficit of nearly 12 billion euros in 2027.  CDU-SPD swear that no rise in cost  will occur.  Will be curious how they resolve this problem.

3.  Election from Sunday in Munich for Mayor....long-term SPD Mayor voted out....Green Party Mayor voted in.

4.  General cost of producing a liter of gas....89-Euro-cents. Five layers of German tax added....bringing cost to around 2-Euro.  Germans generally know there's a fair amount of fuel taxation, but rarely do they guess on this....to the number of five.

5.  Focus says....last of Gulf LNG tankers have left the region.  Once they arrive....there's a long wait for natural gas.

6.  After eight years of talks....EU and Australia have a trade agreement.

7.  N-TV piece....Germans asked/polled about their willing nature to accept Iranian refugees....apparently not so willing to accept 'more'.

6 Oct: Next State Election: Sachsen Anhalt

 Polling for this state election?

Five parties with 5-percent or more.

AfD, 40-percent.  CDU, 26-percent.  SPD, 8-percent. BSW, 5-percent.  Linke, 11-percent.

Coalition in the end?  Unless AfD gets close to 50-percent....trend would be  CDU-SPD-Linke-BSW.  Yeah, awful weak.

Odds of AfD getting near 50-percent? Hard to say at this point.

Civil Defense Chatter

 Interior Minister Dobrindt gave a 'talk'....saying it's time to require civil defense 'classes' in school, and perhaps even adult classes.

Covering?  Well.....war stuff, and natural disasters.

 "Prevention creates security."  Thats the key quote I take from his speech.

If you asked me on how to handle disasters in Germany....I'd have to sit and ponder that for a while.  I have my vast Air Force time.....where you knew a strategy for a dozen-odd events.  Today....there's mostly a siren 'alert'....if it were real....they'd instruct you to listen to the radio for instructions.

War-stuff....like a Russian invasion?  I have no idea.  About two years ago....the wife hyped-up this....after public TV suggested the Russians might attack. I told her to fill the car up with beer/water, and drive west.  I think she thought there was 'more' to counter-invasion strategy....like handing out rifles/ammo/helmets.

Are there any German prepies? No....not like you'd see in America.

Massive power outages?  We are kinda geared to what is normal....six to twelve hours of a outage.  If it were five days?  No...I can say pretty clearly.....no one in the village has a power generator.

What I see from this strategy.....classes in school?  You are going to have thousands of German kids hyped-up and worried about some disaster. 

Why Is The SPD Party Spiraling Out Of Control?

 Well....the SPD (Social Democratic Party of Germany) has been locked into a long-term general decline.  You can say with authority....the 2025 federal election set them to a historic low vote situation.

Feb 2025?  They received just 16-percent of the vote (down 9.3 points from 25-percent in 2021.  Yeah....worst numbers since 1880s.

Reasons?  I'd give three:

1.  They were the working-class party....but if you poll such people today.....half have given up on them.

2.  Lot of SPD-likely voters saw the 2021-2024 SPD-FDP-Green coalition as a major failure, and remember the screw-ups.

3.  If you were leaning leftward....you have options: BSW, Linke and Greens.

Things improving?  It's going to be hard finding a path to bring voters back.

23 Mar: Germany: 4 Things

 1.  Gas price: 2.08 Euro (E-10 fuel).

2.   Focus piece from yesterday.....Paderborn region....14-year old girl held  in jail-like situation.  Authorities consider the radicalized Muslim girl a absolute threat. Upon mental health exam....doctors convinced it's not some bipolar or nutcase issue....she just plainly wants to kill non-Muslims.

State authorities have tried to place her in a facility....so far....no one wants to sign up for this case.

3.  Just odd things you notice about voting in the Pfalz....lot of folks are hyped-up on crime.  But if you dig into 2025 numbers....lowest rates of crime are in the Pfalz.

Lowest rate of knife assaults: 13 per 100,000 for the state in 2025.

Rural regions/wine districts....extremely safe/low crime.

Public perception?  Opposite.

SPD did a crappy job in convincing public of safety.

4.   Munich mayor election....SPD long-term mayor gone....Green Party candidate won.

Rheinland Pfalz Election Results

Fairly negative end for SPD running the state gov't currently.    

CDU: 30.5-percent

SPD: 27-percent  (about 9 points down from last election....lot of folks converted to AfD)

Greens: 7.5-percent

AfD: 20-percent (12 points up over past election)

Linke Party: 4.5-percent (might find some votes to make up...but seems like they will not get seats)

Coalition?  Probably CDU-SPD. Probably only 4 parties to get seats.  

Five discussion items that oddly came up in this election?  First....agenda to prohibit cellphones in schools.  Second, starting 'aid' to keep alive pubs in small villages (state-aid)....if there is only one left. Third, some effort to prohibit German Army recruitment.  Fourth, creation of citizen-groups....to tell the state assembly folks what regular people think about certain policies (mostly because the state politicians seem unlikely to grasp what people think). Fifth, apartments that have been long empty (by landlord's strategy)....to be taken away and run by the local gov't....paying the guy his rental income.

I tried to make sense out of the apartment thing.  My German wife is particular about who rents the two apartments, and she would be hard-ass about this....stalling a rental unit for six months if necessary.  

I should note....it was also pushed....if you were a migrant kid and failing  to achieve in school....there was a political agenda pushed....where the kid would be put into a special school where only his language was to be used.  Now....where he was at 18/19 years old....I have no idea.  Seems like this type of agenda....made little sense if the kid was staying in Germany.

Gun Play

 If you hang out around train stations in Germany....BULLSHIT stuff often happens, and you just stand there admiring how the mess went from one situation.....to another....in a matter of minutes.

So I read up on this episode that occurred in Frankfurt's train-station (mega-sized) district....about a block away....early this AM (Sunday).

Two guys met up and there is a talk about how one  is supposed to hand over a E-scooter to the second guy.

There is a argument to start up.

So, one guy pulls out a pistol and fires nine rounds (whole  clip) at the other guy.

Oddly....not a single round hits the second guy.

I pondered over this....odds of this....if the guy was within 30 meters?  At least one round should have hit.  Second guy is fairly lucky.

What the argument was about?  Unknown.  Drugs/booze involved?  I'd speculate highly on that.

Cops showed up....arrested both.....charged.  

Wild west mentality?  Well....no, not yet....but you just see BS like this and wonder....where did all of this develop? 

MAGA Talk

 German Chancellor Merz gave a hyped-up CDU speech this week....touching on MAGA.

The basic quote?  Something to the effect: 'The MAGA movement is not our movement. What they are doing with culture and media, how they deal with each other, is not our understanding of democracy.'

AfD?  They have a theme that goes along the line of 'make-Germany-great-again'.  I'd say of conservative voters....two out of five....would go to AfD....rest to CDU.

The problem here is....if you sat in a group of ten working-class Germans....asking for  'hot' political topics....it's going to financial woes, job-safety, price of grid-power, crime, negativity over migrants, and taxes.

In particular....a lot of German women are hyped-up (negatively) about safety of walking in public at night.

A lot of this commentary goes back to the idea....there was a 'time' when job-safety was not a issue....where the grid-prices were acceptable...where you could walk safely at night....and crime wasn't a big deal.  This draws the typical German back to 'making-Germany-like-it-was'.

21 Mar: Germany: 10 Things

 1.  Mainz/RP state election;  Today's election is a tough one to figure.  CDU slightly ahead....figure 28-percent....with the SPD at 27-percent (last poll).

AfD at 20-percent.  Greens at 9-percent.  Linke and FDP at 5-percent (marginally).

If Linke and FDP fail....then it's just four parties having seats....mostly right-leaning, but the coalition  would be CDU-led and SPD.

2.  2025, more than 121,000 lawsuits from air travelers were registered across Germany for court action. 

Curiously....the justice system does not consider itself developed enough to handle this much 'traffic'.

3.  Bavarian Premier President Söder is now asking  for mini nuclear power plants in Bavaria.

At the same time....the EU wants to increase its investment in nuclear power again. 

I read through the lecture....German states can't proceed on this idea....only via a fed-permission vehicle.

4.  Uli Hoeness....sports 'boss'.....convicted tax evader....gave a speech this week.....telling the news media not to criticize the government anymore, lest the AfD comes to power. 

Yeah, if you think about it....public TV and newspapers should cut as much political analysis as possible....if the goal  was to prevent public frustration with the CDU-SPD gov't.

5. Berlin-City gets 500 reports daily now (on average) of people doing  public 'waste' dumping.  

6.  SPD Party calling for higher tax rates  for top wage-earners....to fill up the revenue 'buckets'.....CDU questions the idea.

7.  EU talking of more regulation over used cars.

The hint?   If you were a project-guy, and took a meticulously maintained 2005 VW Polo with accident damage but no valid roadworthiness certificate (TÜV)....then the rules would be that  the car can't be sold (basically taken to a junkyard to be crushed.

8.  Next week....if you live in the states of B-W and Bavaria....snow predicted, and temps back down to freezing for 3 to 4 days.  Even in central region....no snow, but it'll hit 0 C in the evenings.  

9. State of Bavaria putting pressure on....to end financial support for Ukrainians.

The chatter mostly goes to a 'end' around 1 July 2026.  

Roughly 1.2-million Ukrainians are in Germany (legally).....I might go and suggest another 100,000 are here  (not declared).  No statistical data to say state-by-state population.

The suggestion is....if you need to stay....you need to find work, and not draw off welfare payments.

10.  My observation over Gulf request support for more naval assets, and Germany declining.

Look....even if Merz took a neutral view and wanted to help....Germany only has a couple of frigates (11), two mine-sweepers, and a couple of corvettes. If they were to send  one....it'd probably take a month to prep for the mission, and I doubt if they could be on duty for more than 6 to 8 weeks.  

Besides....you'd need these assets to save Germany if Putin were to invade Europe (10-percent of Germans still believe this  idea). 

Just A Funny Thing

 There's a state election coming up in the Pfalz shortly.   So....SWR, the public TV network for the region...went and had what I'd call a election arena public forum....with the various big parties running.

Various topics covered....one intensely.....climate-change.

I'm not saying it's a top ten issue with voters...maybe if you had 16-to-25 year  old voters....it might be in their top ten topics.  

So, as each candidate is tossed the question.....you start to notice the camera angle.

They had a audience surround the six folks.....I thought it was a odd prospective...usually the public would be facing the stage.

So as the CDU guy gave his response.....camera captures the 3 public folks sitting behind the CDU guy....mostly grinning and shaking their head over his response.

Intentional?  Well....I'd like to think it was accidental that they had the stage set this way, the camera angle set in a funny way, and had three anti-CDU folks behind the CDU candidate.

Could the camera deal and three 'jokers' shift 10,000 voters?  I doubt it. But this race is fairly close on the CDU and SPD split of voters....it might only be a CDU win by 2,000 votes.  

Footnote: You could probably ask 10,000 folks who watched and if they noticed the camera angle/shaking heads.....and fewer than 300 noted it (my guess). I should  also note....there was a soccer game on at the same time, and most Pfalz guys were probably watching the game.  

Citizen Patrol Idea

 Hennigsdorf, town of 26,000....about an hour outside of Berlin.

They have a decent train station there....mostly to get people back and forth to Berlin. 

So....crimes are up for some reason....in and around the station.

Locals approached the city council and appealed for voluntary citizen patrols are to ensure more order around the train station.

I pondered this idea....you don't see voluntary citizen patrols in Germany much.  Who would likely be on such patrols?  I reckon....older retirees. Probably three or four older folks....with cellphones, and a jacket to identify their organization.

Picking on young punks who loiter mostly?  Yeah...very likely.

The problem I see...in six months....they might actually lessen the crime rate....by driving the 'bad-boys' to leave.  Then other cities would  jump in and advocate citizen patrols.

I'm not saying it's bad thing....but it's a magnet for AfD folks to participate in 'guard-duty'. 

Fuel Prices

 I had to fill the tank up yesterday for the Audi.....2.06 Euro per liter, E10-type fuel.

Yeah....outrageous.

Last night via the news....they showed German crossing the border into  Poland.....E-10 fuel there was 1.38 Euro per liter.

Lot of Germans now asking how this is possible, or how the taxation stuff is rigged against the consumer.

14 Mar 2026: Germany: 5 Stories

 1. This court-action to force the release of the Merkel Stassi file....is dragged up a good bit on social media.  Court said 'no'....only Merkel herself can request and see the file.....general rule since the 1990s for any East German individual.

Virtually every single East German had a file....the question is....were  you special enough to be a reporting agent on work-associates, neighbors, friends?

The most that would probably be in the Merkel folder?  She probably reported on two-dozen folks....that they were pro-capitalists or anti-communist.  I don't see the value of dumping this file.  You might find where some neighbor described Merkel  that she was lacking intellectual capabilities.

2.  Economist Clemens Fuest gave a talk yesterday....saying that Germany has decided to be "a country where energy is scarce." His conclusion: "Energy-intensive industry has no future here." 

My own observation....if you manufacture anything that requires power off the grid.....you can do it cheaper in Poland or Czech.

3. WELT item: German gov't notes....more Ukrainian draft-age men showing up in Germany....getting around the exit-ban.

Draft age: 18 to 63.

4. 15-year-old German kid in Wiesbaden...stole a city bus, and drove to Karsruh....to take his GF to school one morning.

5.  Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's new Grand Ayatollah (for the past week)...reportedly possesses a vast fortune, which he hides outside of Iran. Rumor....he has two luxury hotels in Germany.  

Crime Story

 I sat and analyzed a news piece.

There was this parliamentary inquiry (question) posed by Thuringian Member of Parliament Robert Teske (AfD).

It went to the Federal Ministry of the Interior....asking about crime on trains and within train-stations....in Thuringa.

A big state?  No....roughly 2.1-million...one of the smaller German  states.  Jena, Gera and Erfurt are the metro-cities of the state.

So  for railway and station offenses....for 2025....8,342 total.

So....here's the odd part of the inquirty....it asked about nationalities.

Of the 4,368 suspects identified, 2,533 were non-German, or approximately 58 percent. 1,835 suspects were German, representing about 42 percent. For state numbers....only around 10-percent of the state population is non-German. So yeah, an overwhelming number of 'bad-boys' are involved in crime, and non-German.

This affecting the 2029 state election?  Presently, in polling, AfD leads with around 39-percent of public support, with the CDU in 2nd place with 24-percent. 

Just a humble guess....unless crime numbers reverse....you can probably add  another 5-percent to AfD over the next two years.  

The odd question  I would be asking....why so much crime around trains and train-stations?  A magnet for trouble?

13 Mar: Germany: 4 Stories

 1.  Pfalz state polling:  CDU likely to win with 29-percent of the vote, with SPD near 28-percent.

AfD polling near 19-percent.   Linke Party at 5-percent (questionable if they fail).  Green Party near 8-percent.

So....at best....four parties get seats....maybe five. Coalition?  CDU-SPD.

2. Tuesday night.....around 7PM....BER (Berlin Airport) shutdown operations over a drone for about an hour.

3.Becoming apparent that the CSU Party (only in Bavaria)....will push to bring nuclear energy back....while the sister party (CDU)....is firmly against the idea.

4. Merkel's records with the Stassi....officially closed off....will not be released.

Dynamic?  Accusations that she was a insider to the Stassi...in her youth.  Proof?  None, unless the records were opened....court refused to order this.

Mildly amusing....she's been 'gone' for five years, and this comes up now.

Key question....around 1990....as the Kohl team searched for key figures in the old DDR for the CDU Party....did they have access to the Stassi files? I doubt it. 

Letter Story

 In the mailbox today....was a Wiesbaden gov't letter addressed to me...more or less...a format letter.

Dear so-and-so....we noticed....you've been a 'guest-with-a-visa' for a dozen years....wouldn't you like to apply to be a citizen?

I paused over it....they listed five or six benefits (like I could vote....particularly in EU elections).  

To be rather honest....I'm here mostly because of my wife.  I could just as well move to Italy, Greece or Den Haag. 

Me being a pleasant 'guest'?  Well....other than a daily cynical comment or two....some weekly grumbling over the Bahn travel....I've tried to be a 'nice-guest'.  

Them needing more citizens?  I looked it up from 2015 to  2025....near 240k to 280k Germans a year.....who exit/leave.  Yeah.....they need to keep pestering folks to either become citizens or come in. I'd almost suggest they need a HR-office to recruit Koreans or Australians to come in.

Is The SPD Party 'Dying-Off'?

 For well over a hundred years....the Social Democrats have existed....leaning just left-of-center.   From 1949 to the early 1990s...they could manage to get in the range of 40-percent of the vote....sometimes bumping over 45-percent.

If you look nationally today....with the Greens, Linke Party and BSW....at best, the SPD can only manage around 16-to-20 percent of the vote.

With the state election of the past weekend....it was in the 10-percent range (crappy range).

If you asked about any 'stars' for the party....nationally....there's not much to talk about.

Some folks gaze at the decline of the FDP Party, and remark that they probably will never get above 5-percent nationally ever again...then suggest that the SPD is following the same path.

Four Predictions By End Of 2027

 1.   Bundestag President Julia Kloeckner (CDU), is elected President of Germany by early 2027.

2.  Porsche (as a brand) is sold off from VW by the end of 2026....to a Middle Eastern investment group.

 3.  Enough pressure builds up....that ZDF (Channel 2 of public TV) has to dissolve its news division....leaving it with a sports division, entertainment division, and public forum division.   

4.  Chancellor Merz, by the summer of  2027....is exiting, and to be replaced within the party....due to zero fixing of the economy.

Political Numbers

There's a state election for Sachsen-Anhalt later in the fall of 2026.  I noted someone brought up the topic of a new poll: 

AfD 40%

CDU: 27%

Linke: 12%

So, here's the odd  thing.....BSW, SPD, Greens and FDP...are all listed with 4.9-percent or less....meaning they get no seats.

If this scenario were to occur....you'd have only three parties with seats.  Coalition?  Well....NO....neither the CDU or Linke would partner up with the AfD.

However, even  if they went to 2nd place (CDU) sitting down with the Linke....based on the numbers, I believe the CDU/Linke combo would not come to 50-plus percent.

In the weeks ahead....for the CDU to end up with some dynamic partnership....either the Greens, SPD, or BSW....has to get to 5-percent.

Escalator Woes

 I grew up in a low-status....having never seen a escalator until I was 18, and fresh new in Frankfurt (1978).  What amazed me....were the number of escalators around Frankfurt.  

This past week...the topic of escalators and Germany came up.   

In Berlin....at the dynamic train-station in the middle of town....there are around 52 different escalators that move people.  Well....if they are operational....they move people.  This past week....now on day 10 (maybe 12)....35 of the escalators are non-functional.  

It's reached a stage that the mayor is 'begging' for help.

I noted on social media....someone brought up the DDR days....saying that pretty much every escalator that existed in old East Germany days....was exceptionally prone to be non-functional.

So, I dug into this. Various escalators from across Germany, are down....from what the  company (Kone) says....is a stem from a safety defect identified in the gearboxes of a specific type of a KONE escalator model. 

The problem in waiting for parts and technicians? Well.....you have to walk up and down the stairs.

Self Defense Story

 I sat and watched MOMA (the morning show of public TV....ARD/ZDF).

So they ran this news piece...2 to 3 minutes...explaining how various German hospitals now offer self-defense courses to hospital staff/nurses...because assaults are now a common threat in German society.

I pondered upon this.   Through the 1980s/1990s....the last place on Earth that you might run into trouble....was a German hospital.  You might have drunks....maybe a crazy guy once a year, but it was relatively 'safe'.

What changed?  I think it's a combination of drugs....acceptance of insults/threats as being 'normal', and simply less respect for hospital people.

Within ten years, I'll predict that it'll be common for nurses and hospital staff to have tazers....using them aggressively.

12 March: Germany: 9 Things

 1.  I sat and read through a paper from the Int'l Energy Agency.....covering the EU in 2040.  So the startling conclusion.....cost for storage capacity and knowable energy (wind/solar)....will be way more....than nuclear energy by that point.

You are starting to see various encouragements...for Germany to revert back to nuke energy.

2.  Germany is about to release oil reserves (hoping to keep price down at the  pump), and there's to be a limit to fuel changes (you see often....five to eight times a day....that stations change the fuel cost).  Once per day...is what they will push.

3.  CDU calling for easier situation for folks to work until age 70.  I personally doubt if you can find more than 5-percent of Germans who agree with this.

4.   Tegut grocery chain.....ending.  Will be split up among Rewe and Edeka.  My village  (4,000 resident) has ONE single Tegut.  Nothing spoken as of this AM....I assume it'll be picked up as a Edeka.

5. Germany is apparently considering Jürgen Klopp for the 2026 World Cup leadership/coach role....Julian Nagelsmann is spiraling downward. Awful late in the  prep-up....to suggest firing the coach.  I have trouble believing that Klopp would desire to step into such a mess.

6. Last night, I watched ZDF (public TV) for the  9:45 PM news.

Key feature?   Fukushima.  It was the 15th anniversary.

So the way they told the story....the 200,000 dead folks....died mostly from the nuclear energy plant disaster.  Yeah, that was totally bogus/false.

The story was rigged to be anti-nuclear energy.  

7.  Great weather for past 2 weeks.  By this weekend....if you into B-W or Bavaria....there's supposed to be 20-to-30 cm of snow.

8. The regional election for 2024 in Saarbrucken (for the towns)....ordered yesterday to be repeated.

Difficult story to lay out.....but in 2024....the AfD Party goofed up on the list of candidates, then went to a 2nd list to clear up the problem.  Saar authorities disallowed the corrective action....so there was no allowance for the voters to vote AfD.

AfD challenged in court....2025....they won.  Saar authorities appealed....yesterday, the appeal was thrown out. Figure in 60 to 90 days....a new election.

Odds?  Currently in polls....AfD is near 20-to-23 percent in public polls.

9.   Bayreuth, Bavaria....odd train station 'bumping'.....two trains collide.....8 folks wounded.

What Drove Germany To Be Anti-Nuclear Energy?

 I won't make this a 60-page 'white-paper'.

Basically four factors fell into play.

In the early 1970s....all things nuclear (particularly 'weapons')  got hyped up. Environmentalists picked up the topic, and it became a top priority of the Green Party in the early 1980s.

Second....as you enter the 1990s....the question came up....where do you 'dump' the waste, and they could never identify a 'safe' method (none of the 16 states wanted it).

Third....the 1986 Chernobyl disaster was discussed in a massive way and portrayed as the greatest disaster of all time (at least by the German mentality).

Fourth and final....as the country was heading toward taking the system down slowly....Fukushima occurred.  I would describe the six months after Fukushima as a turbo-period, where deadlines were established.

The funny thing?  Well....Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, the Netherlands, and Switzerland have nuke stations, and on occasion...Germany buys grid power from them.  For whatever reason....it's OK that Germany does not have nuke power....while  their neighbor does have nuke power.

My Four Thoughts On The German Economy

 First....I'm one to say since 2020 (the Covid era)....the German economy has marginally recovered, and the severe damage done (2020, 2021, and 2022)...has severely wounded what was the 'machine' left from the 1980s (the Kohl era).

Germans have tried to go back to normal....going on trips....renovating their homes....being social....being hyped-up about soccer and reality TV.  But if you walk around shopping districts of Frankfurt, Mainz, Darmstadt and Wiesbaden....there's empty store-fronts....fewer restaurants/pubs, and more 'gimmicks' to get people to spend money (that they apparently don't have).

There's one particular pub in Wiesbaden....which suffered greatly in 2020/2021/2022.  They briefly came back for 6 months in 2023....then gave up, and exited the building.  A year passed....another guy showed up and tried to introduce a new pub....with that failing in six months. I noticed last week....a burger-joint operation is about to open at the site (mostly to sell beer,  and hamburgers). It might do well in the spring/summer months....but they lack seating for winter 'survival'. I'll predict within 18 months....it shuts down.

Second, while Merz is the right guy to plan a recovery....he has to have general support of the SPD to bring change.  Most of the SPD strategy centers on more 'projects'....which require more taxation revenue.

I'm not that enthusiastic over a route being invented.

Third, energy cost....compared to twenty years ago...is outrageous.  The design that Merkel left for this 'crew'....would require a total revamp, and probably a comeback of nuke energy....which the environmentalists are fully against.

It'd make more sense for most German companies who have products/services requiring  large electrical consumption....to move into Czech or Poland.

Fourth and final....if you sit with a older German crowd....everyone grumbles about the cost of living and the marginal pension plan.

The Merz crew is giving zero confidence on this problem....with whoever follows them....locked into the same mess.  

11 March: Germany: Six Things

 1.  VW announced yesterday....by 2030, it will have cut another 50,000 employees.  Less profit....less sales....lot of blame going toward E-car technology.

If you lined up a hundred working-class Germans...I'd say only around 10-percent 'thrilled' to buy into E-cars. If you heavily discounted prices....you might get another 5-percent.  Gov't policy and EU regulations....were detrimental to the whole German car industry. 

2. The German police in Rosenheim....arrested a guy who had spat at a train attendant. So it turns out...he was a Somali, who already had court action going on....benefit fraud and document forgery. On the books....he was already going to spend four months in jail.

3.  Some German  went and did a speed camera inventory of the sixteen German states.  Oddly....Baden-Wuerttemberg had the record....14 cameras per 100,000 residents.  Hessen followed, with around 12  speed cameras per 100,000 residents.

At the bottom of the list? Bavaria, with two speed cameras per 100,000 residents.

Any logic to it?  No.

My village (4,000 residents) has zero speed cameras. Over the hill....3 km away...another village (10,000 residents)....with five speed cameras.  

4.  EU talking up advocating nuke energy....yeah, shocker.

5.  Talk started up....gov't talking of adding a special tax on gas-companies in Germans....if they make too much money.

About half the politicians seem to be shaking their heads.....that it'd only get passed down to consumers.

6.   Economist Marcel Fratzscher, the president of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), gave a talk.....very negative about a forecast for economic growth in Germany.  

"These two, three, five percent growth figures that some people still have in mind, – that's no longer happening. Because, we are a shrinking country and we lack the workforce."

Oddly,  if you think about it....the CDU was elected into place to lead the economy back to a more positive position.  If they can't do it....it's pretty crappy.

If A Meteor Falls Upon Your House In Germany?

Topic came up this week (in the Pfalz).

Various German federal states have somewhat differing regulations regarding how such finds are handled. In most cases, finders are allowed to keep meteorites, provided they have fallen on their property or public land.

If you were to sell to the state?  Prices go between one euro per gram and 5,000 euros per gram....depending on the composition, condition, and whether the find is fresh or not.

Some German states have a rule....stipulating that the find must be of special scientific interest....which it automatically becomes state property, with some cash as a reward.

Polling For Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (State Elecction Sep 2026)

Polling released in the past 2 or  3 weeks:

AfD, 39-percent

CDU, 15-percent

SPD, 13-percent

Linke, 12-percent

Greens, 6-percent

BSW, 7-percent

Remaining 9-percent spilt up.

If AfD were to get near 50-percent....no coalition is required.  Key question...can BSW  and Greens stay above 5-percent each...or if both were to falter to 4.9-percent or less....the numbers benefit AfD.

10 Mar: Germany: 7 Things

 1.  Turmoil brewing in Baden-Wuerttemberg over election results.  After counting votes and doing the seat analysis....Greens get 56 seats, and CDU gets 56 seats....with SPD getting 10 seats and AfD getting 35.

Coalition matter?  Well...the ONLY combo is Greens and CDU together.   CDU suggesting power-sharing....which the Greens say....NO, there was an election and we got the most votes....so we get the Premier-President seat and lead on  most state cabinet posts.  

If no coalition is achieved in 30 days? There would be another election....probably in June. 

What might happen?  The CDU might sit down and agree on some things.....listing ten things that the Greens promised....as a NO-GO promise.   That would make the Green Party incredibly weak for five years in the state. 

2.  Scandal brewing?  Posted to the right....was a ARD (public TV) election graphic showing the seat pattern (yesterday early AM) from the state election. 

While the Green and black scale is correct.....the AfD  (blue scale) is INCORRECT.   Not the numbers....the scale is incorrect.

The real graphic is below it.

Accidentally done?  That's the public TV management claim.

Childish prank?  More or less.

3.  VW profit slumped by 50-percent  in the past year.

4.  Erlangen (Bavaria): ER situation...police called in....had to shoot some guy swinging a knife around.

5.  WELT piece by Anton Korinek....worth reading.....warning of massive layoffs due to AI.

6.  ARD (public TV) is starting a new service....called 'rabbit-hole'.....which they claim....will evaluate all stories for fakeness.

I give it  90 days of service....before it is announced as a 'failure'.

7. I spent 10 minutes 'playing' with a election map and Sunday results.  Where you see massive Green Party results.....it's in highly urbanized metro zones....the rest of the state (B-W).....it's mostly split by CDU and AfD.

Four Humble Thoughts

 1.  Hyped-up sense over the state election yesterday?

Well...Greens walked away with a major 'win', and the SPD folks (at least in the state of B-W)....looked like crap.  I would add....if you go and look at regional voting....there's some shocking upward urbanized trends for AfD (Mannheim for example).

Balance of seats?  It appears that the Greens get 56 seats....as do the  CDU. SPD gets 10 seats, and AfD gets 35.  Coalition?  It can only be Greens and CDU.  If the CDU has some right-wing agenda to pop up....they could carry it with AfD votes.

2. Yesterday....Putin gave some speech.  Midst of it....had a five-star coughing attack. Was carried live on TV apparently.

3. One odd aspect from the German state election.....the trend-folks can show that AfD gains....came from left and center politics.  General public are attached to the crime-angle and migrant issues.  

4.   Meteorite damage.....various parts of Rhineland-Palatinate Saturday evening.

Police say....fragments of a meteorite have caused damage to roofs and houses in Rhineland-Palatinate. Damage reports: Hunsrück and Eifel regions, as well as Koblenz.  

Baden-Wurttemberg State Election Results

 Green Party.....winner....31.8-percent.

CDU....2nd place....29.3-percent (about 5 points above last election). 

AfD.....17.6-percent....about 9 points above last election.

SPD.....5.5-percent (half of last time's vote).

FDP/Linke....4.5 percent each.....neither will get seats unless they get near 5-percent.

Massive Green Party win.....simple coalition.....Greens with CDU as a partner.

How way-off were the polls from the past week?  I'd say Greens were 30-percent off....SPD way-over-counted.....and the CDU did overly well (6 points above projection).

Snack Rule

 This AM....I was reading a minor German news item....related to a school in the state of NRW (NW Germany)....where instructions got passed out during Ramadan and causing heartburn.

Students (appears in the age group of 12 to 14)....are apparently supposed to eat their break-time sandwiches or snack-food.....ONLY secretly or away from the Muslim kids.

Parents reaction?  Mostly negative.

I paused over this....thinking....if you were true to the Ramadan business....you aren't supposed to hydrate (drink fluids) from sun-up to sun-down.  You'd have to mandate no fluids as well as the snack-rule. 

Inviting trouble?  The more I ponder this....yeah.....there's trouble brewing if you really stress this.

Cash Story

 This week...Hungarian officials stopped two vehicles (together)...heading toward the Ukrainian border (eastward).

What they found in the vehicles?  40 Million US-Dollars (cash), 35 Million Euro (cash) and 9 Kilogram in Gold.

Crew?  Ukraine guys.

Official story?  Profits from some Ukraine guy's business.

Bogus story?  Well....you don't know.

All of this is an issue for the EU....where the money came from and how you can move this much in cash around.

Weed Story

 One of the top ten grocery chains in Germany....is NETTO.  On my wife's list?  Well....no.  She might stop there twice a year.

Yesterday, in their weekly advertising....they noted that they have a Cannabis-starter 'kit'....14.99 Euro.

I read the piece twice over.  Seedling....basic instructions....projected growth, and you end up with a Cannabis plant.

255 shops will market it Germany-wide.

On the same brochure page....strawberry plants as well.

I'm guessing there is a age limit (probably minimum of age 16).  This starting some trend?  Maybe.

Three Observations

 1. It came up on N-TV news this AM.....one out of every three Bahn  'conductors'....peeved enough to consider quitting....over the violence of ticket-auditing.  Threat of violence....growing.

If you go back twenty years ago.....you simply didn't didn't have this level of 'threat'. I don't remember in the 2000 to 2010 era....seeing anyone audited much....riding without a ticket. 

2.  Back around two years ago....around 20 'bombs' were noted in delivery boxes around the EU.  Investigation completed.....Russian military is blamed.

3. Kaiserslautern.....after a knifing death last weekend....has put into effect a 'weapons-free-zone'.....meaning  in the designed area....cops are free to stop you....force an ID-check, and frisk you.  

For reference.....Wiesbaden started the first WFZ....around 6 years ago.  

This Baden-Wuerttemberg 'Mess'

 I've watched the clip of CDU candidate Hagel.....Wed at the school....drawn into a 'greenhouse-gas' lecture and royally screwing up the situation....with the 'kids'.

So my five thoughts:

1. Up to this point, with the state  election on Sunday....the CDU was slated to win with 27-percent....Greens ending up at 24-percent. Now?  I suggest a 3.5-point shift....Greens likely winning by 1 to 1.5 percent.

2.  Why didn't the CDU have a 'watcher' over the guy and sense he was being set up?  

It appears the teacher (probably very politicized) had things laid out to trip up Hagel, and the ARD news team....to capture the moment.  

It was scripted....pure and simple.

3.  The moment about 90 seconds into the mess....where Hagel loses 'it'?  Yeah....he's not prepared, and realizes he was tricked.....lot of  apparent anger.

4.  The 'greenhouse-effect'?  If you asked a thousand Germans....fewer than 10 would give somewhat of an answer....with half of them getting the solid answer.

5.  So, here's the odd ending.  Greens win on Sunday....my prediction.

They turn to  get the CDU to partner-up and half of the voters for the state CDU say 'NO'.  No partnership for the coalition.

The Greens turn to form with the Linke, SPD, and FDP....finding it  barely works  but the FDP want a list of conditions.

In the end....NO coalition....with another state vote in 60 days (my humble view).

AI Story

 I sat last night and watched the weather folks of public TV....hype-up their latest accomplishment.  They seem ready to hook-up AI....giving it some kind of 'best-case' versus 'worst-case' scenario ability on weather predictions.

In my mind....without much doubt....the crazy weather predictions might improve....minute-by-minute.  So you could watch 'AI-Maggie' at 6:10 AM....getting x-news on weather (nothing to worry over), and an hour later....'AI-Paul' at 7:00 AM might give you some pretty crappy news....of impending hail at 10 AM.

Monster-rain storms in July?  AI could probably track systems as they enter Germany and send you a personal warning 90 minutes ahead of time....that you need to close all windows and prepare for serious weather.

This AI-assist?  I'm not calling it a positive thing....it means AI is tracking various things, and will state facts way before a human would have uttered some warning. It's also telling you of heat-wave crap, with advice to seek cooling situations (probably telling you where some AC can be found).

A new reality. 

Page Three Story

 Yesterday......Federal Constitutional Court opened up in Germany.

Key court story?  The "Deutsche Umwelthilfe"....co-financed from tax folks of the federal government and various states, is in some suing against German industry.

By EU rules in  place.....to reach a healthy 'clean' environment.....the prosperity and the economy of Germany (the government and companies).....in some way (if they win) would have to shrink faster for the climate.

On one side....it's moderately mentioned in the news.  On the other side....if the court says they have 'power' over the economy and industry....then there's authority for them to downsize the German landscape. 

Personally, when the EU got into this law-business over the environment and industry....I don't think they had any idea where things would lead onto.

As for the folks 'pushing'?  Well....if they wake up and 30-percent of employed folks are in danger of seeing their jobs go away....society won't be that friendly or accepting of the 'reality'.

Sun Is Getting Hotter Story

I sat and watched a PR-type campaign video.....done by the CDU's lead candidate in the state of election in Baden-Württemberg.

This was set up in some school.....which I immediately noted....the kids have no vote, unless they are 16.  

I'm assuming they asked for a older group...but the kids in this room were age 13/14 (my guess).

So....Manuel Hagel went into education-mode....to explain the greenhouse effect.

My German is less-than-average....but the next 60-odd seconds...Hagel gave some words to say the sun is getting hotter....because the Earth's atmosphere is becoming thinner.

Just by the look on their faces....the kids were either in a state of disbelief....or in some mid-morning 'trance' (too much Monster-energy 'fluid').

On the positive side?  Well....the kids are still  pumped up on  climate-change-Angst (fear).

Probably needs to be a German law....to prevent politicians from entering any school unless the kids are 16-or-older (enough to vote).

Footnote: I think the CDU guy just lost 5 points off the election....but I don't see the Greens on the gain-side. Very odd development.  

How The Sunday Election Will Go in Baden-Wurttemberg?

 State election.

CDU will win....around 27-percent. Greens easily in 2nd place....24-percent.

AfD near 20-percent.

SPD, 9-percent.  Linke and FDP near 6 each.

Observations

 1. Yesterday AM....Iraqi Kurds were organized and crossing the border into Iran....invasion-style. Based on reports....I'd say they were armed by the US Army and had clear strategies....hooking up with Iranian Kurds.   

2.  Odd thing I noticed via Bloomberg News yesterday....Sweden’s central bank advised folks....they should hold a week’s worth of cash at home.  Reason?  Well....you might need to buy food, essentials...in case of a war or other crisis.

Why drove this advice?  Unknown.

3.  Putin suggested he might cut off ALL natural gas deliveries to the EU....saying that he has other customers.   

4.  These big public viewing beer-parties during WM2026 (this summer)?  Well....in Hamburg....cancelled.  Security requirements make it too costly.  Going to be a lot of grumbling how things got this way.

5.  Two bomb threats yesterday....Bremen, and Augsburg....shut-down the two train-stations.   Nothing found.

6. 143,000 registered cases to go against deportation orders in Germany for 2025.  These were people who came  into Germany....asked for asylum, were evaluated, and then given the 'nein' paperwork.

You can add up the paperwork, and manpower....probably 40-man-hours for the gov't to defend their decision (minimum)....but this would tie up the German court system for years, and years.

The court system was never made to handle this sort of mess.

7.   Cash requirement?  If you have something to  buy/pay-for....costing  over 3,000 Euro, and you pay in cash? Then some ID is required. A bad example here....if you had a used car....pricing it at 2,999 Euro would avoid the paperwork.  Pricing it at 3,050....requires the paperwork.

8. When you examine how things went 'south' so fast in Iran....this one meeting about 3 weeks ago....where the Trump folks were trying to deal with Iran's nuclear program....the topic of how much enriched uranium came up.  

We are talking weapons-grade uranium.

The response was x-amount....enough for 11 nuke-bombs.

Why this guy was honest? That's  really the big question. If he'd say half-a-nuke or less....things might have gone in a friendly fashion

Was he boasting?  Was he just a new guy? Was he just a actor in the talks?  Unknown.

9.  All that 'bad-Spain' talk? Ended.  The PM came back yesterday, and said they re-considered....Rota and Moran are open for US operations.

To put things into prospective.  

Moran is by Seville,  and Rota is by Cadiz.....both were US bases.....paid and kept up to date....for events like this.

Sanchez, the PM of Spain?  I'd describe him as 50-percent Gov Newsom (Cal)....male-model type, but being one step above Newsom on IQ, and  mostly attached to only focus-groups that get the vote out.

10.  Gas prices this AM?  In my region.....1.88 Euro for E-10.

The Too Many Employees Chat

 After yesterday's piece on Stuttgart having an audit....finding that of the 17k city employees....a 1,000 are not necessary....my German wife got into this topic.

Her belief?  If you visited the top fifty German cities....they all have a 5-to-10 percentage 'overage'.  Her belief as well...if you did trim and let people go....this 100,000 group would have issues/problems in finding new work....permanently unemployed is the outcome (her thoughts).

I pondered this unique problem.

In most cases....my belief....for each six workers....you probably have a manager, and for each three managers....there's some division chief. 

In a shop of ten folks....there's probably three workers carrying the work-load....doing around 75-percent of the work.  The remaining seven are mostly to fill the gap and 'look' busy.

In my days in the Pfalz....someone brought up their German wife wanting to open a cafe, and needing a business license.  Various trips to the town 'rathaus' were failures....mostly because of the clerk in charges of licenses. Eventually....she gave up on this idea...in this one particular village....selecting an alternate site a couple  of kilometers away, and on the first trip to that new clerk....all papers were squared away.   

I'm not saying all city employees are 'problems'.....but the system over the past forty-odd years has corrupted itself.

So the curious question....would the SPD, Greens, CDU, AfD, and Linke folks....be willing to cut 100,000 city employees across Germany?  I would say......no.