If Merz Goes

The clock ticks.....I'd say it's 50-50 whether Merz is gone by the next election. 

My five CDU likely candidates replacing him as Chancellor?

1. Hendrik Wüst (Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia)

2. Jens Spahn (Union parliamentary group leader / former Health Minister).

3. Daniel Günther (Minister-President of Schleswig-Holstein).

4. Carsten Linnemann (CDU General Secretary / key cabinet figure).

5. Julia Klöckner (President of the Bundestag / former Agriculture Minister).

If you were looking for  a finance/economics 'geek'....NONE of  them fill the bill.

I Bought Gas Today

 Had to fuel-up the car....23 liters of E-10 fuel....2.18 Euro a  liter.

Just over 50 Euro.

I told the wife at this rate....if the car could burn on vodka....would be cheaper to buy vodka at the grocery.

TV news guy brought up....German gov't for March....collected just over 300 Million Euro 'extra' for fuel tax revenue.   At present pace.....he figured German gov't would  collect almost 800-to-900 million extra for April, if nothing happens.

UK chatter?  They have enough jet fuel to keep  the current flight schedule on-track through the end of April....maybe a week into May.  Then.....rationing and flight-cuts have to occur.

Germans haven't said much....but I expect some type of warning by the end of April, and some flight cuts likely to be announced by mid-to-late  May.   Lufthansa went and said around  two-dozen planes are going  to be parked shortly....flight schedule to be curtailed.

Course....pressure is building.  

Odd news item?   Well....Russia has hinted in some way....they might bring naval  ship presence into the Gulf, and aide the US in securing safe passage.   If you did the  schedule....it'd take at least three weeks for a Russian  frigate or two  to arrive.

How Trump Will Break The Leaving-NATO News

 I don't think he'll say we are 'leaving' or exiting.  He'll just say....base-by-base....lessening of troops.....till the point that there's just a thousand or so military members left in Europe.

Congress will attempt to stop him (no doubt).....but he'll just keep saying 'we-intend-to-stay' until the number of troops reaches a thousand.

This knee-jerk reaction of European countries?  Well....they don't have the cash flow to increase their military. 

If I were Putin.....I'd talk all day long about the threat....forcing them to spend money unnecessarily.

2 April 2026: Germany: 5 Things

 1.  CDU-CSU parties.....meeting and discussing the 2-year 'grade' for  cannabis-legalization.....proclaiming it a failure, and wanting  to dump it.

Basically....illegal sales still continue on (not a shock).  Pro-cannabis folks aren't going to accept this idea.

2.  Noted a Merz poll this AM....only one out of seven voters 'happy' with his performance.....roughly 84-percent in some state of unhappiness.

3.  Yes, there is a Good-Friday movie ban list.....which the networks are told not to  run certain movies (I noted Atomic Blonde, Mad Max and Rambo were on the list).  Around 700 listed movies.  Streaming video services are not under the rule.

4.  SPD to lowest level in polling....12-percent.  

5.  In case you were wondering  about German gas prices relating to higher taxation....YEAH, the system is rigged in such a manner.  Tons of money pouring into the tax revenue pot.

Last Night: German Network TV

 Two things.

First, I sat and watched a unusual commercial....60-second piece.  Are you uninspired?  Are you lacking 'drive'?  Are you wandering aimlessly?  

It's roughly 50-seconds of this, and then they hint....you could find relief in the Bundeswehr (German Army).

Recruitment ad.

It is one of the best recruitment ads I've ever seen.

Second, both ARD/ZDF (the two public networks)....both hyped up the wolf episode in Hamburg (having bitten a German gal on the face in a store).  On the prime 8 PM news....it got a full 60 seconds.

The Fuel Crisis?

 Yesterday....I assessed the cost of E-10 fuel....forty Euro-Cents above what it was four weeks ago.  There's no shortage....at least in Germany.  But if you said the tanker business continues another month....then yeah, there's probably a shortage to  come.

Just a humble guess....but a  liter will likely hit 2.40 Euro within two weeks.

The odd thing....the EU came out and strongly suggested for this summer....not to plan massive trips....meaning driving or flying.

Lufthansa also came out and said....they are putting around 20 to 30 of their planes in storage status....because of impending fuel shortages.

My Thoughts: US Exiting NATO

 First.....remembering this is a Trump era....I'd write this as a 'show'.

I'd list NATO bases....just saying we are going to achieve zero-carbon on each  installation, with one exception.  

I'd keep around one single 3-star general, with a staff of 1,000 to 1,200...either in Stuttgart, Wiesbaden or Ramstein.

Then I'd talk about participation in exercises in Europe....but limit it to just five or six countries.  I wouldn't waste effort with the UK or Spain.

I'd hype up the zero-carbon thing....saying how it was a positive thing.

I'd tell NATO....if they ever were attacked by Russia....we'd send 'something' but I wouldn't really say what.

I'd take all those assets in Europe and transfer them to the Pacific....beefing up where I'd anticipate the next war.

Diego Garcia?  I'd convince locals to break the UK contract, and sign up a deal with us.

I'd write up a new special medal.....Cold War II....starting 27 December 1991, to today.  I'd give every GI on duty in Europe.....a 3-day pass for achieving 'peace'.

I'd go and meet with Putin and let him know.....those EU folks are crazy enough to buy your natural gas/oil.....to help you rebuild your military over the next ten years.   Don't goof this....would be my key advice to him.

NATO....script-wise....has achieved Star Wars success....nothing left to tell (of a story). 

The Word 'Übrigens'

 It's not a common word that you hear.....loosely translated....the meaning is 'by-the-way'.  Germans will use it to start a sentence....to say something 'extra' about the situation or problem..