My Final Five Thoughts On Poland Coup Failure

 1.  Its just odd...I watched a good bit of video of the riot-police at the court building.  None of the helmets had numbers....none of the jackets had numbers.  

Explanation? I suspect they were training-school 'kids' for the police.  

2.  Judge Anna Korwin-Piotrowska....the gal who tried to establish herself as the chief of the court....without any valid status?

I would suggest that she will lose her law license within six weeks....admit to stress issues...enter some clinic, and never have charges drawn up.

3.  Tusk, the PM?  I think he will stick around and be a 'face' for the coup.....as the election campaign starts up early next year. Compared to the last election...Tusk probably loses nearly half of the votes as anticipated.

4.  Meme of the year?  There's a 8-second shot....President is entering the court-building and Korwin-Piotrowska (the lawyer gal) is attempting to block him and say she's in charge.  President merely pushes her out of the way like a bag of marsh-mellows. 

5.  Who planned this?  Totally unknown, and may never be known.

The Oddest Three Scenarios For The Poland Crisis?

 I've spent two hours this AM....reading through commentary by Poles, and non-Poles...over the coup-attempt. Some weird beliefs.

First....one guy suggested that Putin rigged up this crisis....getting Tusk and crew convinced that they could run successful coup....then fail the coup.....getting the President of Poland into a better overall position....to somehow benefit a pro-Putin landscape.

Second, someone suggested that the President of Poland was never on the plane to Africa....that he knew ahead of time of the coup.

Finally, someone suggested this planned by the President....quietly....to get Tusk convinced it was a great idea, and now screw up the election chances for Tusk and crew for October 2027.   

Five Thoughts Over Poland 'Chaos/Crisis'

1. This AM....I noted that Deputy Inspector General of Police Tomasz Michułka got mentioned.  He's the police 'boss'....who apparently had the riot police units to be issued automatic weapons against Polish civilians...if they defended the Constitutional Tribunal (court).

I just DON'T see police being that pumped-up to shoot anyone.  

2.  At the end of this crisis....probably by the middle of Saturday....there's likely fifty-odd gov't folks (politicians and government bosses)....who have to exit Poland in a hurry.  I don't see Germany that eager to accept them.  

3.  If you asked me over public perception.....maybe 25-percent are full-up charged-up....to have a coup like this.  Opposing them (anti-coup)....is probably 25-percent.

So then you have fifty-percent of folks....who shake their head.  They don't have an understanding of how a banana-republic-like situation developed like this, and see Tusk as dimwitted for approving this plan.

4.  A lot of non-Poles around Europe....are viewing this coup-like situation and wondering....where did this all start, and is there history of this?

Well....Feb of 1981....the last coup in Europe (Spain).  It was also a failed effort.

5. Politically, Tusk has damaged his party and it's image....a lot.  Oct 2027.....next parliament election.  

31 Oct 2026: Germany/Europe: 6 Stories

 1.  Natural gas goals for 'storage'....in Germany....80 percent for most storage facilities....however....45 percent for the facilities in Bad Lauchstädt, Frankenthal, Hähnlein, Rehden, Stockstadt and Uelsen.

If this were a moderate winter....there's enough.  If it's a severe winter....there's issues brewing.

2.  Poland.  Fairy dramatic 'theater' unfolding.  National Court building surrounded by police, under orders from PM Tusk, and his appointed 'supreme-judge'....while the President was flying for a visit to some African country.  Word gets to the President....he turns the plane around, and lands in Warsaw.

Tusk's judge basically gave a 30-day time-out on the President/VP.  

Police?  They allowed the President to enter the court building, and so far...nothing much else has occurred (8 AM news).

What I'd suggest....police for the most part...vote right-of-center and I doubt that this was laid out in full detail yesterday afternoon.  I expect most police to depart for home, and Tusk's 'theater-antics' unravel over most of the day.  Whether he stays in Poland or has to flee....I'm of the mind that he's not likely to stay.

3.  31 Oct....riots in Germany?  There's a lot of hype....French-stye riots likely to start up today.  

4.  Some issue brewing....false German language test certificate now noted.  Migrants paying for the fake copy....to get 'status'.....but can marginally speak/read/write German.

5.  VW is apparently halting development of the E-Golf vehicle....saying they can't really afford to go further.

6.  German, Canada and Norway....financing Patriot missiles (500) for Ukraine.  Amount of cost? 2.1-billion Euro.

30 Oct 2026: Germany: 9 Stories

 1.  Linke Party 'boss' from Berlin-City operations....gave a talk, and basically admitted that a fair amount of local control/support....is directed from Hamas enthusiasts, and things might be seen as 'damaging' (my word, not hers).

2.  ZDF's (public TV, Channel 2 in Germany) closes down it's humor show....'Royale' on 18 Dec 2026....after six years.

To be honest....out of the five episodes that I've watched over the period (maybe around 190 produced)....about 80-percent of the humor of the show was driven off of politics....mostly slamming either AfD or the CDU-CSU folks....occasionally against the Greens or SPD.

The harsh reality is that the fan-base has downsized a good bit over the last year or two.

3.  Former German President Joachim Gauck gave a interview....blunt talk....basically saying that Germany can't continue to finance the welfare-state if the economy is such a poor state (as currently). 

4.  WELT article this AM....Gen-Z crowd gets nothing.  Dan Alphonso writes a pretty straight-forward piece....that all this control and climate policy demanded by the youth of Germany....has resulted in prices for energy and lifestyles expanding....everything costing more.  These youth....now in their mid-to-late 20's....now grumbling....how did this all happen?

5.  Berlin police say they are prepared for demonstrations/riots for tomorrow....suggestion is that France riots will occur in metro areas of Germany.

6.  Deutschland Card (monthly Bahn/bus ticket) on 1 January 2027....goes to 66.80 Euro a month.  Only thing you can't use it for....travel on ICE (high speed rail).  Still a pretty good deal.

7.  Audi-Germany says their yearly profit at this point....is 95-million Euro for 2026.  Roughly 90-percent less than time of 2025.  Crisis talk openly discussed.

8.  N-TV piece.....German hospitals in a financial crisis.  Some expect reduction in staff to be the only way ahead.

9.  I was in Wiesbaden yesterday....two hours walking around the shopping district.  Got approached by the youngest beggar ever....some teenage gal (figure 13/14 years old).  

Germany And Suicides

 2025 was a record year (at least over 25 years)....with 11,000 reported.

The female numbers?  Up 18-percent over 2024.

Half of all numbers....were folks 65-and-older.  Men made up almost three-quarters of the numbers.

Cause or trigger.....not fully understood.

If you were asking me....there's simply a large number of retired folks with crappy pensions, and no way to survive.

Three Observations

 1.  VW/Germany....posted a billion-euro loss in the third quarter here in 2026.

CFO comments this AM....blame goes to the boom in E-cars....VW earns significantly less with them than with combustion engines.

If trend were to continue?  In this weakened state, it's possible that they (VW) gets bought by someone. 

The odd story?  Tesla seems to be doing well.

2.  Saturday (31st, Halloween)....massive riots predicted in urban centers around Germany....youth-related, like the France riots.  

Does Germany have the funding to react like France and pump billions more into education?  Not really....unless you raise taxation, and reduce competitive nature of commerce/industry.  

3. In the state of Hessen (where I live)....someone did a survey of happiness with students.  Oddly,  just over half of the kids stated that they often or sometimes sleep less or worse because of studying or homework late into the night. 

Almost two-thirds said that this study effort....sometimes leaves them too little time for hobbies and leisure activities.

Around half of those in the survey...complained the buses were over-loaded. I won't really disagree with this.  From 7 AM to 8 AM....you really don't want to take the bus from my village.

29 Oct 2026: Germany: 5 Stories

 1.  Saxony-Anhalt.  CDU Party members (state-level)....are tasked to swear under oath....how they voted for President of the state parliament group. The belief is....because of numbers noted....some CDU guy/gal voted for AfD.  

Just a suspicion....if you asked a hundred CDU-CSU voters....their feelings over AfD....maybe 20-percent might see some reason to vote for AfD agenda items.

2.  EU....has said bluntly...no associate-membership deal for Canada.  All the hype?  Dissolved.

Odds of coming up again?  I'd say a 100-percent chance.  One of the funny issues....they've never defined what exactly comes with the 'associate' label.  

3.  Paris-court says 'no'....you can't establish a curfew on teenagers.

4.  There will be a meeting of Putin, Trump and Zelensky....in the works.  Does not appear that European countries will be invited to participate.

Odds of a 'deal'?  I'd give it only a 25-percent chance.  

5.  Study complete.....one in five young Germans (age 15 and up) use disposable vapes.

Fuel-Tank Chatter

 Someone this past week or so...at the EU....a discussion group started up over gas-tank sizes.

So...the way this goes....some EU political folks have observed that one negative about accepting E-cars...is that E-car and gas-car ranges...are NOT equal.  

The political discussion?  Well...if you limited fuel-tank sizes....then E-cars and gas-car outcomes...would be the same. So this excuse of not equal would go away.

You can imagine some French or German guy hearing this....looking at cars in 2030 or 2034....realizing the 40-liter tank is mandated to go away, and you have just a 22-liter tank.  The amount of anger/hostility would be enormous.

I thought about this...having owned a Smart-car back around 2006 to 2009.  The tank was around 32 liters/8 gallons.  

The old Fiat 500 (from the 1970s) had a 10-liter tank.  I knew a Air Force guy who had early 70s model, and he pretty much limited himself to a 10 km circle of the base....keeping a half-liter can of fuel in the trunk as a emergency situation.

It's just a funny discussion...you make a one-star problem into a four-star problem.

What France Promised To Halt The School-Kid Riots?

 I sat and reviewed last night...the promise deal offered:

First....for teachers and staffing.  The gov't will hire/deploy 3,000 extra supply/substitute teachers quickly to the 500 most understaffed districts. If you do the math...it's 6 extra teachers to each 'stressed school'.  If it sounds marginal....yeah....it is.  

Where the 3,000 will come from?  Unknown.  I assume there's a resume process, and some folks might have no educational background, but at least have a degree.

Within this promise....the previously announced 'cuts' to manpower....teaching posts...deleted.  And the system will create 500 new/full-time teacher billets.

Where the funding for this will come from?  No one says much....but I'd assume new and fresh taxation.

Second?  Well....class sizes.  Cap first-year high-school classes to a max of 28 kids.

From what most suggest.....most schools have 30 or more in a class-group.

This idea is not immediate...it'd take a year or two to balance this out.  

Funding?  Well....no one says much.

Third....buildings and renovation.  Four billion Euro in LOW-interest loans to regions to occur.  The regions have to pay the money back (it's not free). For colleges?  That's a one-billion Euro fund....which appears to be free (not a loan).  That has to be spent in 2027/2028/2029.

Where that money comes from?  Unknown....likely more taxation.

Fourth....university access.  Easier criteria to enter.  Creation of 15,000 extra higher-education places in 2027–2028....oddly, directed toward vocational/technical courses.

How it's funded?  Unknown....but likely fresh new taxation.

Fifth....Student grants indexed to inflation from the 2027 academic year.

Sixth....A review of the baccalaureate degree program. 

Seventh....Longer lunch breaks (MINIMUM of at least one hour). 

So....if you think about this....taxes have to go up, and that makes industry and commerce....less competitive.....so down the road....say in 3 to 5 years....fewer jobs, higher unemployment, and disgruntled 20-to-30 year old folks....with a useless education achievement.

If you ask me....somewhere around 2030 to 2035....there's a exodus to occur....where 100,000 French educated folks have no choice....they have to depart France to find productive lives.

Acceptance of the deal?  German interviews went to two thoughts....the gov't did give in and offer something.....OR the deal didn't cover all the complaints that started the riots.

Weirdest German TV Moment

 Around 2000...one of the commercial German networks ran a 'wife-swap' show.  Basically, they recruited one crazy-or-unique gal and one normal gal.  For 7 days....they swapped houses.  The husband or boyfriend....didn't get sexual or such.....they just had to observe and half of the show was mostly the husband's reaction.

The wife and I had watched season one.  On entertainment value (1-10)....I personally gave it a '3'....but there wasn't much alternative crap to watch.

So one night....here is a US Army intelligence guy (Stuttgart area) who has a German wife, and she's hyped up to participate in the show.  I suspect there's a paycheck in the mix as the benefit.

What the Army guy gets?  Some German gal with serious stability problems....who smokes cannabis a good bit (to take the edge off).  Around day two or three of this....the Army guy has given the production team 'notice'....the nutcase-gal needs to leave.  The production team is acting 'funny'....asking why.  This part of the show ends early.

I felt sorry for the Army guy....he should have seen this as a likely scenario....that the more 'nutty' that you appeared....the more likely you got a invite to participate in the show.  I always wondered after the show aired....did he guy lose his security clearance?  If he did lose it....how did the security guys write the report?

Germany and Micro Cars?

Up until five years ago...I don't think you ever saw one.

So....a microcar (also called Mopedauto, Leichtkraftfahrzeug, or 45-km/h-Auto) in Germany is a very small, light four-wheeled vehicle.

EU-wise....it's classified as an EU L6e light quadricycle. It does appear like a small enclosed car but is legally closer to a moped than a regular passenger car (Pkw).⁠  Max?  Two people.

Max speed?  45 km/h.  Max weight: 425 kg empty (batteries excluded on electrics)

Seats?  Only one to two.

Power?  Normally....4 to 6 kW, or 5 to 8 HP.

Drive: Gas, diesel, or electric versions exist

For the driver's license/age?  You need a Führerschein Klasse AM (moped license), which has been available nationwide from age 15 since 2021. Holders of a regular Class B car license can also drive them with no extra requirements. Until age 16, the AM license is generally valid only inside Germany.⁠

Registration, insurance, and taxes?  Well...no full vehicle registration or regular TÜV (Hauptuntersuchung) is required.  Mandatory liability insurance, shown by a yearly-renewed Versicherungskennzeichen (insurance plate, similar to mopeds).

No vehicle tax (yet).

Where you can drive?  Normal streets, state roads.  NOT ALLOWED on autobahns.

Around Wiesbaden?  I imagine there's at least 300 of them....mostly all used by 15-to-18 year old 'kids'.  

On my danger-index?  Within the city....no threat.  If you said for me to drive it on some 2-lane road...outside of the city....with mixed 100 km/h vehicle traffic?  It's not that safe.

What they remind me of?  Flintstone's cars.

New Hessen State Poll

 I noted this AM....poll done just for the state of Hessen (where I live):

CDU: 25 percent (major downturn since last poll....down 7 percentage points)

AfD: 23 percent (up three points since last poll)

Greens: 16 percent (up two points)

SPD: 15 percent

Left Party: 7 percent 

Next state election....fall of 2028.  

If trend continues?  AfD is probably around 28-percent...winning, but unable to get a coalition.  In this scenario....CDU would get the nod to form a gov't coalition, but forced to partner with both the SPD and Greens...meaning a fairly diluted CDU state gov't.

27 Oct 2026: Germany: 5 Stories

1.  Last night's 'Hard But Fair' public forum show (ARD, public tv)....the topic was....lot of Germans are pulling home-duty....caring for a relative...on their own.  Numbers?  Gov't suggests 10-million are caring for 'someone' in Germany.  So....reform chatter going on....that you should get 'paid' something for this duty.  Gov't says....they don't have the cash to cover this idea.

2.  Kehlsteinhaus/'Eagle's Nest'....debate starting up over re-construction (after the fire).  One part of the story...local region has this as a attraction....with around 350,000 tourists coming up yearly to see the site.  No one wants to really say 'rebuild-the-Nazi-site'.

3.  Sale of micro-cars booming....up 80-percent over 3 years.  Max speed, 45 kph.

4.  Lot of hostility over Audi opening a US plant.

5.  Who will succeed Federal President Steinmeier in January?  Virtually all of the parties are lining up their candidate, and it's about a 99-percent chance that it will be a woman.  

Two Observations From Yesterday

 I was out and about in Wiesbaden yesterday....noting two things.

First, I sat and had a cup of coffee in the shopping district....outside (it's still moderate temperatures).  So....there passed a group of six teenage Germans...probably age group of 15/16. 

As they approached....one of the gals pulled a vape from pants...huffed.  She handed it then to the girl next to her...who did a huff as well.  Then she hands it to a boy in the group.....he does a huff, and passes it on.  All six huffed off the same vape.

No one seemed to worry about passing some flu-bug or disease....from person to person.

From the old tobacco crowd....no one would have shared a half-smoked cigarette.

Second....I was approached by beggars at least six times yesterday.  Up until around 2000....it was something that just never happened in a German city.  

Guys/gals just laying on cardboard?    Yeah, I probably counted a dozen while on this 3-hour walk. Prior to 2000.....you just never saw that in a German city.

Explaining How Expropriation Works

 Example.  

You as a city-council decide that twelve apartment buildings owned by private interest (total of 100 apartment in each....total of 1,200 apartments or resident-renters)....must be public property....to control rent increases.

You file paperwork to consume the twelve.  Judge appoints a expert (or two) to come to a value for each of the twelve.  

The city council hopes for a low-ball number....private group owning the twelve....hopes for a full-value number.

Neither group is happy over the results....property still moves to city-property, but a court challenge now consumes anywhere from one year to ten years.

Eventually, a national court will say the buildings had x-amount of value, and the city is now left to figure a way to pay for this....with the rent going to them.  

How you cover or pay for renovation?  Well....that is the hidden problem.  You (the city council) wake up ten to fifteen years later....with complaints now rising....folks want their building renovated, and the city does not have the cash-flow to cover this.

Eventually....the city is in serious debt issues...asking the state or the federal folks....to cover their stupidity.

Expropriation rarely works, as designed.

26 Oct 2026: Germany: 7 Stories

 1.  PM of the UK gave a talk last week....urging Brits to stock up on 'tinned' food and bottled water...to be prepared.

Then he suggested enough for 72 hours/3 days.  I paused over this....it's not a lot of food or water, if you think about a 3-day supply.

2.  Remember about two months ago....big HYPE at EU....Canada was all peppy about getting 'associate membership' in the future? 

Well....Germany, France and at least six other EU countries are saying 'no'....to this idea of a associate membership....either you are 'IN' or not.

3.  This new 3.8-billion dollar Audi plant in Georgia (US) being built....it'll manufacture Audi Q7, Q8, and Q9 SUVs.  They aren't at the cheaper end of SUVs....Q7 is cheapest one....base model would run $68k (before add-ons, and taxes).  

4.  Berlin-City statistic for 1st half of 2026....just over 500 weapon/gun-shot offenses reported.

5.  Week one of the booze-ban for German train stations....5,000 people were cited in violation.  

Note: train-station or restaurant bars....are exempt.  Once you walk into a station with a bottle, or transit to a subway platform, with a bottle (beer, wine, hard-booze)....you are in violation (as well as entering a train).

Authorities for the Bahn....say it's ok for first week numbers.  To be honest....at the six month point, I expect near 250,000-plus violations on the books.

Oddly, they didn't say a male-to-female number on the 5,000....I'm of the mind....probably 98-percent of the rule-breakers were male.

Some advice....if you are getting off work, and have to clear a train-station to get home, and you prefer a going-home-drink....get a walk-away cup of coffee and outside the station...drop a shot (or two) of your preferred booze into the coffee.  

6. There's talk by the Interior Minister (Dorbrindt, CSU) that a law is to be drafted....where expropriation (where a city or state grabs control of buildings, or property....later compensating the previous owner for it)....would be very limited in carrying out.

This hindering the Linke/Green/SPD coalition in Berlin-City?  Yeah.  Their chief agenda was expropriate a great deal of apartment buildings in the city.

7.  Massive riot/demonstration chatter across Germany for Halloween/31 Oct.  Appears to be a copy of the France actions planned.

My advice....if you were traveling around Germany on he 31st....stick to non-urban areas/smaller towns.

23 Oct 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

 1.  Insa poll done nationally.....CDU/CSU: 19 percent (up a point).  AfD: 30 percent (up a point).

SPD: 14 ​​percent (up a point), Green Party at 14 percent, Linke Party at 10 percent (down a point). 

2.  Audi to spend around $4-billion for a production center in the US state of Georgia.

3.  The EU says it wants to make FRONTEX (their border/sea control agency) a deportation agency as well.  You as a country, with X-number of folks for deportation...would alert FRONTEX, and they'd hustle up a plane and 'guards'. 

Cost?  Unknown.  Legal authority?  Well....via EU, they'd have some type of authority.  Where they'd send the deportee crowd to?  Unknown. 

4.  WELT piece....Berlin Linke Party on a agenda to nationalize apartments, and it'd require compensation to 'gift' the current owners.  Some talk indicates they want to pay a minimum amount for the value....which most agree....will lead to a court case (figure 2 to 5 years) and probably a serious debt problem that is handed to the next city government in 5 years.

5. Kehlsteinhaus/'Eagle's Nest'....damage being assessed....pretty much the only thing left are stones/bricks....after the fire.  Something will be rebuilt there, but it'll be a difficult site to deliver construction materials, and work can probably only be done in the spring/summer. 

6. From the gunshots fired a couple of days ago in Paris....police have been busy trying to gather intelligence....from home raids.  So they came to this residence of the number one suspect....inside...they found a copy of the Koran, a Bible, and Adolph Hitler's 'Mein Kampf'.  

Dead/wounded?  One dead from the gun attack, and 5 wounded.

Raid evidence gathered so far?  Cheap machine-gun and a tear-gas grenade. 

Yeah, it'd be an interesting lead-in for a German murder-movie.

One-Day Card Chatter

 Currently, there's a Deutschland ticket....a monthly ticket for 63 Euro....where you ride any bus, tram, or regional train....day or night....for the month (2nd class).  The only trains you can't ride....high-speed long distance trains.

A review is taking place....some folks would prefer a one-day option (like the retired crowd). 

Cost factor?  Unknown....but it's probably in the 7-Euro range (for 24 hours of use).

What Bavarian Police Say Over The Eagle's Nest Fire

 Official report....33-year old local German guy....mentally-challenged guy....had a motor scooter (no tag for it). Had gone to the 'nest' after hours...lit the fire.  Caught going down the hill as fire department was arriving.

Judge will send him off for a mental eval (30 day deal).  I don't expect him to 'pass'.  

As for rebuilding the structure....I'm of the mind it will have some type of shelter/coffee shop, but the grand nature of the original structure....will probably not be built.  

Comparing this guy to the 1933 Dutch guy who burned the Reichstag down?  Well....both were mental cases with issues.

Five Thoughts/Observations

 1.  This past week....while out and about in the Wiesbaden area....I noted three different individuals masked-up (Covid-style).  Just in general....I think a small group of Germans are hyped-up to prevent themselves from illness in the winter months.

2.  This AM...after the 'Eagle's Nest' fire (Berchtesgaden)....the state Interior-Minister has spoken up and said state funds would be used to repair/fix the structure.  Likely to trigger a drama in the state of Bavaria over this idea.  

Personal note...if you asked me over the top twenty things to see upon a visit to Germany....yeah, I rank the 'Eagle's Nest' in the twenty places. It is a 5-hour 'trip' by the time you get to the cable-car...walk around, and return.  I'd also note....you should only make the trip in May to October.

Accused guy?  Still no motive given.  

3.  I was reading a social media comment by someone (non-German)....asking...after Germany was destroyed twice over (WW I/II)....how is it that Germany isn't like Haiti?

I pondered for a minute...looking back over 2,000 years (including the Roman era, the plague) and it's ingrained into German mentality...there is this weird we-will-not-be-held-back (unless by ourselves or our own stupid blundering).

4.  This past week....the Chancellor gave a talk, and said that Moscow is trying to destabilize Germany.

The problem is that half of German society might agree with him....while the other half might suggest that the Chancellor's coalition (CDU-CSU-SPD) is doing a fine job by itself...in destabilization efforts.

5.  If you were a pretty determined enthusiast of Islam-living....Germany has such a built-in maximum power temptation-factor (food, lust, sex, drugs, booze, lifestyle)...that you probably won't survive the temptation business.  

24 Oct 2026: Germany: 4 Stories

 1.  The 'Eagles Nest' building....the building erected on top of a mountain for Hitler's birthday (50th)....burned to the ground (mostly the timber roof....the stone part still stands).  Culprit?  Well...police caught a guy coming down the mountainside....still detained this AM.  

Just a weird guess....some radicalized youth.

Rebuild?  Big argument is likely to occur....historic building, but built for Hitler.

2.  Medical study completed....300,000 strokes (worldwide) could be avoided....if Daylight Savings Time were dumped.

3.  WELT piece: CDU-chatter....if SPD-Greens-Linke end up as the next coalition (I give it a 50-percent chance)....then massive tax increases are likely....with increased migration.

The scenario?  No doubt that AfD will get near 30-percent, with the CDU likely in 3rd place (say 16-percent), and SPD at 19-percent.  No partnership for AfD....2nd place SPD would step up and do a coalition with the Linke and Greens. 

4.  CDU and CSU having a bitter debate over their individual 'pick' to be next German president.  Bundestag election is around 5 weeks away.

Ukrainian Ethnic-Russians and Donbas?

 Since Trump 'deal' is up for a peace 'path'....the question arises for this Donbas region.

On the map...this are is about 15-percent of Ukraine's land mass.  

My question....after this much destruction in the area...if the war ended...would ethnic-Russian Ukrainians ever return to Donbas?

I have my doubts.

Before the war....there were around 6.5-million in total population.  Most folks agree...out of the 6.5 million...around 2.4-million were ethnic Russian.  Those who reside there today?  Probably less than 1-million (mixed population).

I would go and suggest that in a peace-treaty deal....a year into the future...fewer than 1.5-million would live here (permanently).

Locals....ten years into a peace-era....probably would agree....Donbas is a dead-zone with most young people set to leave (escape).

Putin's legacy?  A lot of nothing....with a Putin-statue erected....to show 'hero-status'.

Germany: Is There A Housing Shortage Or A Housing Affordability Crisis?

 Well....Germany has a fairly well-documented and persistent affordable housing problem.

You can say factually....it's mostly driven a shortfall in housing supply relative to demand, especially in metro-cities (like Berlin, Bremen, Hamburg, Frankfurt, etc).  If you were talking about small urban areas....like Trier or Worms....it's much less an issue.

Depending on who surveys the issue...most all of the experts agree....there's a million-plus missing apartments in Germany (some might even suggest 2-million).

Housing now (in Germany) requires about 25-percent of disposable income (regarded as one of the highest rates in the EU.

So you end up asking...what groups are 'screwed-over'?  The usual answer....working-class income folks, young people, single parents, and new migrants arriving.

The cherry on this 'cake'?  Rising construction cost....city-driven regulations, marginal development properties, an obvious labor shortage within Germany, and intereest rates.

So I end this with a odd factor....virtually all of the political parties want to participate in the resolution/fix, and the odds of additional 'damage' is great.

Peace Chatter

Looking at the Economist this AM....has a brief bit on what the Trump Ukraine-Russia peace deal resembles:

1.  Some kind of non-military zone around Donbas.

2.  No expectation of NATO taking in Ukraine.

3.  Some type of international investment package, and a eventual EU membership for Ukraine.

4.  Open possibility of Russia-US business deal (no sanctions).

5.  Nord Stream II reopens....meaning that Germany can buy natural gas from Russia.  Also open deals within EU iteself.

Who would monitor the Donbas zone?  Unknown.  Would the EU agree with membership?  Only if corruption is marginalized.  Would Germany agree to buying Russian natural gas again?  Unknown.

No mention of war-crimes cases?  Yeah, that's another issue for some folks. 

A bitter ending for Russia?  Between the dead, and the Russian guys who 'left'....there's two-million non-existent Russian men.....compared against 2020 numbers.  It's a manpower problem that will exist for the next forty years.

22 Oct 2026: Germany: 5 Stories

 1.  WELT piece this AM.....talking over the new 'power' divide in Berlin....a hard-left to moderate-left group, and a nationalist group (meaning CDU-CSU-AfD).  CDU folks would go crazy if suggested that they were nationalists.....Merkel spent 16 years molding them into center-center landscape.  

2.  Ukrainian guy arrested in Brandenburg....'secret-agent' for Russia.

3.  Some political chatter going on....taxes on electricity to lessen (slightly) in Germany. I did the numbers (at least on what was the draft idea)....might save me 30-to-40 Euro a year.  

4.  Heft winds today in northern half of Germany....storm damae likely.

5.  Got my new electrical mower yesterday.  Assembly required (12 minutes).  In big bold writing.....engineered in Germany.  In small print on the box....made in /China.  Previous mower....engineered and made in Germany....lasted 15 years.

Dozens of Berlin Police Asking For A Transfer

 I noted this afternoon....around 70-odd Berlin police....turned in the paperwork....asking for a transfer out of the 'state' (fifteen other possibilities).

Oddly, right after the city election (the Linke Party got the most votes)....two German states opened up a recruitment deal (Brandenburg and Baden-Württemberg).  

Some of this a gut feeling of being asked to put down a riot, but then finding that either the Linke folks, the SPD folks, or the Green Party folks....aren't backing up the public safety situation.

The end?  No....I would anticipate as the 70 leave....within 3 or 4 months.....another 70-odd folks turn their papers in as well.

Shortage likely to be seen as a top five-problem?  No one says much, but it's one of those jobs that most folks don't really care to sign-up for.

Q-and-A: The Ukraine-Russia War And European Views

 Five observations:

1.  For the first year or two....most European countries were careful to support Ukraine....trying hard not to upset Putin.

Last year or two...mostly the opposite....military support is obvious, and Putin makes a blunt 'we-can-hit-you' statement at least once a month to Europe.

2.  Financially finished?

I'd say both France and Germany are near the end-point where they can afford both military support and public needs support.  

3.  Public support less today than three years ago?

If you vote for the Linke Party or AfD Party....you are not favoring Ukraine any longer, and lean toward Russia.  I'd say 40-percent of the German public feel this way now.

4.  Does Germany need the natural gas of Russia?

Yeah, and its pretty obvious that the industry of Germany really can't afford this current strategy of not buying Russian natural gas.

5.  Out of the million-plus Ukrainians in Germany....how many would return home if the war ends?

There is no poll to say one way or another.  Younger Ukrainians who've been here since day one....I believe....are very unlikely to return to Ukraine if the war is concluded.  My guess is that a quarter-million would stay in Germany.

Q-and-A: My Thoughts On German Public Transportation

 1.  Am I pro-public-transportation?

I have a love-hate relationship over it. 

I think both the local App and the Bahn App are 5-star.  I agree...I feel completely safe on the local city bus.  For what you pay....it's a great deal.

So, the bad parts....the bus for 7AM to 8:30 AM: loaded usually, and you have to stand.  Out of sixty-odd occasions I use the bus yearly....my projected bus gets cancelled at least five times, and I'm behind schedule.  Any train that I take toward Frankfurt in the rush-hour....is likely overflowing, and I stand.  If the temp is 35 C (95 F) or hotter....you can forget about the bus or train AC working.  

2.  The basic difference between 1st class and 2nd class?

If you board a train made prior to 2000...you have the look/feel of 1st class being 'better'.  You can't really say this with the ultra-modern trains...other than the '1' being prominent and the seats are slightly more spread out

3.  Are the train stations toilets or the train WC's always functional?

Ever since the stations went to a commercial operation and forced you to pay 1-Euro for entry....they seem to be clean, tidy, and functional. 

Train WC's?  On regional trains....it's about a 20-percent chance of them being broke/non-functional.

Always try to do your business in the station.

4.  Do I have any 'fear' around train-stations?

Moderately sized stations....like Mainz or Wiesbaden or K-Town?  NO.

Frankfurt, Bremen, Hamburg....yeah, I watch my back and go into vigilant-mode.  

5.  Armed guards on trains?

Before 2010....NEVER.  At some point around 2015 to 2020....you started to notice on rare occasions....Bahn-Security in the stations.

Since 2020....on the trains (regional and ICE)....there's green-boot-military-style Bahn-'Army' guys/gals.  Last year....I noted some 6 ft tall German red-headed gal...160 pounds of muscle....inspecting tickets in the Bahn-Army uniform....figuring she could beat the crap out of anyone.

6.  Can you get any decent food on a Bahn train?

Well....the days of the 1970s/1980s where there was the dining car and a plate/beer was available for 24 DM....long gone.  There are cafe-cars...usually with beer/coffee, and chips.  

If you have a hunger...prior to the trip....go pick up some snacks in the station.

7.  A drug-zone within five minutes walking of any metro train station?

I'd argue...in forty (top) metro stations in Germany....yeah, they all have a drug zone. Before 1990s....that didn't exist.

Think Like Macron

  "France was not invaded by hordes of Muslim immigrants. Those images are false, it's AI and foreign manipulation."

-- President Macron, France

I paused over the statement last night.  Maybe all of the riot/destruction business....never occurred, and was simply a CIA-operation to make France look dangerous.  Yeah....I could believe that.

But why stop there?  This sex-situation between 15-year old Macron and his 40-year old teacher....maybe that was invented and simply a AI-creation.

Maybe the UAP/UFO BS....was invented and is simply a AI-creation.

Maybe this Meghan/Harry drama in the UK....was invented and is simply a AI-creation.

Maybe Covid was never more than a invented drama and simply a AI-creation.

What you need...is enough drugs/booze...to think in the mindset of Macon....then things will turn out OK.

Is There A Budget Shortfall About To Fall Into Place? (In Germany)

 Well....for 2027's budget....YES.

The Bundesrechnungshof (Germany’s independent Federal Court of Auditors) analyzed the 2027 draft budget and says a budget gap (Deckungslücke) of 160.7 billion Euro exists.

The way to look at this?  There are planned expenditures of 555.4 billion Euro....with a projected tax revenues of 394.7 billion Euro.  Roughly speaking....it's around 30-percent of spending that is not currently covered by revenues and must be financed primarily through new bank-borrowing.

Remarkably sounding like 2024?  Well....under the SPD-coalition....they had a serious budget failure, and the FDP-partner (owning the Finance Army of the gov't)....refused to borrow excessive funds.

Merz so far?  He has NOT said much.

Ukraine hoping to get more funding via Germany?  I'd say extra funds are near impossible to talk about.

What can you blame the spending upon?

Mostly social spending (largest category): Around 201–239 billion Euro. Roughly 132 billion Euro of that is federal subsidies to the statutory pension insurance alone. 

Defense (biggest growth driver)? The core defense budget rising from 83 billion Euro (2026) to 110 billion Euro (2027), a jump of roughly one-third. 

Massive taxation coming?  Well....you'd have two choices....borrowing more money and hoping for a economic turn-around (not likely).....or collapse the gov't (like at the end of 2024) and leave it for some other idiots clean up.

I could see some idiots at the SPD and CDU hoping for a collapse....getting the Greens into some win-win position...forming a coalition with the Linke Party and SPD Party, and blaming the massive tax increase on the Greens for a year or two.

As for 2027?  Don't go expecting a lot of positive economic news.

Three Political Predictions (For Germany)

 1.  January leadership meeting for SPD (left-of-center)....results in Manuela Schwesig (current Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) as new party 'boss'.

She'll find some brief path for numbers bumping up for the SPD....from current 14-percent to 18-percent....taking votes primarily from Greens/Linke Party.

I'm not saying SPD has a win-factor (AfD will have near 28-percent on polling), but AfD can't get a coalition gov't formed, and the CDU-CSU folks are weakened enough to be in third-place.

2.  Within 4 months, Merz's coalition gov't collapses.  SPD will see the CDU at their weakest point since 1945.  Oddly, this weakness problem will extend to Bavaria....with the CSU harmed by the national CDU strategy.

3.  Finally, I think starting around the last day or two of October....the French riots will start up in Germany, and prove to be a public safety problem over the entire month of November.  Merz has limited ability to halt the riot-damage.  Some odd blame will be centered on Putin/Russia....suggesting they hyped the riot crowd.  

21 Oct 2026: Germany: 12 Stories

 1.  NFL commissioner says the Sunday game in Paris is a 'go'.  No intention to cancel or move the game.  Just a humble view....Paris police probably would need a couple thousand to ensure fans to reach the arena.

2.  There are internal 'warning' documents for the German Bundeswehr (Army) that Russian sabotage is now possible (on German soil). (Focus)

3.  Some belief here in Germany that Paris-like riots are possible in Germany.  Whole different reaction by German police, and surveillance is probably double what the French police use.

4.  Weird talk last night on ZDF (public TV, Channel 2) public forum how....Marcus Lanz Show.  Topic?  Apocalypse....doomsday....chaos.  

5.  New poll on support for Chancellor Merz....now down to 10-percent.  Ninety-percent of those polled....said that it's time to have a new Chancellor.  

6.  Berlin-City police are now preparing for France-like riots.  

7.  Somehow....some German luggage that was destined for Valencia (Spain)....got routed to Chicago.  

8.  Bavaria (the state) poll....CSU is at the lowest point of past three years.....AfD at highest point (still in 2nd place).

9.  FORSA poll....indications of a majority of German now believe in a early collapse of the Merz coalition (CDU-CSU-SPD). 

10.  I was at a local Ikea store last week....around 12:30.  Walking past the restaurant area...it's jam-packed full....probably 400 folks.  I have to admit....per-plate....it is probably the cheapest place to eat in the region.

11.  Amazon says they will invest near 4.8-billion Euro in Hessen (the state).  There are four sites that are being reviewed, for these data-centers.  I gazed at the map....one of them is about 10 miles east of my place....near the Flughafen/Airport.  All centered around Frankfurt apparently.

12. Massive accident here in Hessen (Bad Homburg) last night.....six wild boar crossing a road......car wiped-out (six dead boar, two injured humans)....at least 100,000 Euro in vehicle damage.  Road had to be shutdown for several hours...to clear the mess.

Three Observations

1.  Chancellor Merz gave a 'talk' with Bloomberg business TV this AM....was asked about the France riot business.

His response?  “The reason for this is migration.” 

Then he gave a brief insight....blaming bot immigration and poor integration.

If you'd been the journalist....you should then ask...how is France different from Germany.

I would make the observation....if you went to burning down Hamburg, Bremen, or Essen....the German police would look closely at the riot-crowd....determine that 90-percent seem to be German and ask questions. It'd be classified as 'revolutionists'....not migrants.

2.  Why Germans don't really 'fret' over Russia or 'war'?

I would offer three basic reasons.  First, on a economic scale...other than selling oil/natural gas....Russia is at the same level as Albania (a belief of Germans).  Second, the folks who do 'fret'....are probably over the age of 70, and readily remember THE WAR, and the 1950s/1960s.  The rest of the crowd don't see a war-worry.  Third and final....if Facebook and Tic-Tok made a big deal over this....there would be worry...but you just don't see that type of chatter.

3.  Hurricane-like weather for the northern half of Germany for Friday/Saturday?

Well....weather folks are discussing this.

20 Oct 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

 1.  ARD (public TV) last night....ran roughly two hours of German civil service job chatter....mostly that Germany has too many gov't workers.  I'd say close to 80-percent of Germans agree....there is a problem, but selecting the solution or who to 'let-go'....is near impossible. Total of those counted?  Near 1.8-million.

2.  Chancellor Merz gave a talk yesterday....says that Germans are not taking the threat of Russia serious. I might agree....average German does not put the Russia-threat-chatter in a top ten thing to worry about.

3.  Italy is trucking 500 Italian soldiers to Milan....to send the message....no riots desired.  Police detained 270-plus folks from yesterday's demonstration.  Some commentary....indicating even 12-year-old kids were among the 'bad-boys'.

4.  Iran called in the German ambassador to Iran....some negative comments.

5.  Berlin-City: Linke Party talking of forcing acquisition of 160,000 apartments (to be city property)......would need 10-billion Euro to accomplish this.  Doesn't say where the money would come from. Belief is....they'd control rent costs.

6.  Curfew rules set for some French cities now.

This Paris NFL Game

 Sunday....this coming weekend....the Steelers and Saints are scheduled to play....at Stade de France (Paris).

Stadium would hold 80,000.

Americans, with tickets and flights coming over?  NO ONE has any idea of the number.  Best guess?  I would suggest 10,000 but it's simply a guess.

Odds of a cancellation or movement of the game (outside of France)?  There's probably a NFL executive committee meeting today and tomorrow...with French police.  Even if they deployed 10,000 police....how would you leave your hotel...get to the stadium, and then return safely?  For this reason...I think it'll be moved to Germany....either Frankfurt or Munich.  Amount of hassle?  Well...if I had $10,000 spent on airline tickets/hotel reservations....I'd have to probably spend around another $5,000 minimum.

Odd problem.

Assurances by the police?  At this point....worthless.

Beyond the game.....talking over American tourists for the next month....to avoid Paris?  I'd start to speculate that most are looking for a alternate destination (maybe Barcelona or Den Haag).

Court Case

Court case in Konstanz opening up today.

Case?  Former paramedic (28 years old)....allegedly....performed cosmetic treatments on patients for a beauty chain in the local area.

The key issue?  He posed as a doctor (using the name "Dr. Lukas." Yeah, he was injecting botox and hyaluronic acid into folks.

So....charges?  One count of forgery....and 470 counts of aggravated assault.

If you go by the law (Section 224).....each agg-assault could get you six months (minimum) in jail (on up to 10 years).  So if convicted on the 470 counts....it might add up.

19 Oct 2026: Germany: 5 Stories

 1.  Last night (Sunday)....ARD (public Tv) ran a public-forum show....with two 'honored' guests from the SPD and CDU parties.  For about 20 minutes (I eventually gave up watching)....the moderator (Miosga) tried to get the two to explain why the two parties are so divided, and they mostly presented the image how they are so unified. 

2.  Milan, Italy had a French-style youth riot.  Italian police countered....arresting 160 'youths'.  

3.  There's a Bundestag seating study going around....suggesting that in the next election....both the CDU-CSU and SPD parties....will lose seats (meaning AfD gets seats from both).  

4.  The German Foreign Office....has apparently given some 'warning' to Germans in Paris....to behave in a 'nice' way.  Way it was said....some suggestion that maybe German youths are there in some riot mindset.  Just odd.

5. There's a story from Berlin that some AfD 'staff-members' (not representatives) within the Bundestag....got into a fight/brawl.  This apparently occurred around midnight....Wed....with alcohol being part of the 'trigger'.  Apparently, there's to be both a AfD investigation, and a Bundestag investigation.  

Frank-Dialogue Chatter

This AM....I read through Brit news, and noted that British Army Chief, General Sir Roly Walker, spoke up and said that political leaders in the Kingdom.....will soon begin a "frank dialogue".....with Brit folks about preparing for war.

I pondered upon this.  

He didn't say 'who' the war-party was....nor give some hint of frank-dialogue.  He didn't really say what preparation for war entailed.  

If I were Putin....I'd call up and ask if I could help the UK in some fashion.  Maybe offer to pretend to invade....just so Brits had something to focus upon.

The general making up something?  Well....you can't be sure about that idea.

Even if the PM said invasion was likely.....then what?  I'm guessing only a quarter of the population....including women....would be willing to pick up arms, and go to killing invaders.  I suspect one out of three Brits might welcome the invaders (suggesting Russians might be a better fit for leadership positions).

If some French or German general had spoken to some threat like this?  I might suggest only 10-percent of society would take them serious, but you wouldn't dare issue guns to anyone....out of fear that they'd try to take over the country before the invaders arrived.

We live in odd times.

Asylum Chatter

Going back to July/August....in Ceuta (the enclave of Spain in Morocco)....a bunch of folks (mostly guys) crossed over and started asylum applications.

So out of the 80,000 applications noted so far....around 70-percent say that they are primarily gay, and deserve asylum in Spain because they can't be accepted in Morocco.

I paused over this.

Roughly 56,000 guys....gay.

Oddly, 24,000 applied for asylum but proclaiming they were normal-regular-non-gay.

Spain asking for proof?  No....no one ever goes to sustain their version of reality.

Male population in Morocco?  Around 19-million.  So if you use the 70-percent number....it means that Morocco probably has a male gay population of roughly 13-odd-million.  Just something to think about.

This France 'Mess'

 Couple of observations:

First....it's a odd crowd on rioting....combination of students, left-wing agenda 'players', and ethnic non-French.  To some degree....the Macron gov't has some fear of the group (not readily explained).

Second, as for why students hyped-up the rioting?  Well...the French government supposedly spends too little to educate the children of migrants (that's the general French media message). But oddly....France spends between anywhere between two and 200 times more per student than the nations from which its migrants come.

Third, while all this rioting and destruction goes on....the French economy is marginally in any position to handle more taxes to fund the school BS.

Fourth, if you pay attention....most all of the rioting occurs in metro-cities.  Small towns/villages?  Zero action.

Fifth, some folks have started to ask if schools in metro areas stay in closed-down status....at what point do you consider the school-year worth dissolving, and telling those students to start over in 2027 (fall)?

Sixth?  No cross-over activity in Germany?  No.  I would suggest that if you had any riot behavior....German police would detain you....asking your parents to show up (if you were under 18), and face a judge for illegal rioting/protesting.

Topic of Natural Gas

 I saw this graph-chart today.....nat-l gas production....Russia and EU members....from 1990s to today.

So it's odd story....up until 2000....the EU out-produced on natural gas....then things shifted.

My theory on what happened?  I think Putin looked at the dynamics, and paid off in some way....various 'experts' for EU countries....to lessen production, and count on 'cheap' Russian natural gas to fill the void.

By 2010, Putin held all the 'aces' and EU countries were trapped.

The EU 'Unbanning' Gas/Diesel Cars?

 It was a shocker of a week.....the French-German effort was successful.....dissolving the ban in 2035 to dump gas/diesel 'new' cars.  Both countries were in a crappy futures market over the car market.

Where things went wrong?  I'd suggest three problems.

First, Chancellor Merkel's agenda to just FORCE a German ban on gas/diesel cars....wasn't widely supported by the public.  Presently.....2026.....around 89-percent of all cars registered...are gas/diesel....remaining number are hybrid-E-car types.

I don't think there was ever a clear understanding by the politicians (from left and right) over the technology, public reaction, or reality of car sales.

Second, various car companies in Germany spent billions (each) to have models ready to go.  They mostly all thought by 2020 to 2025....public attention would be massive (it didn't happen).  The money spent?  So far, that's not much to show for the effort.

Third, oddly enough....the Chinese reviewed the German technology...copying bit-by-bit.  They didn't have to invest the money that the German companies did.

So this unbanning.....is there time to reverse the damage?

I'm not really buying into it.  Both French and German companies were geared to E-car tech, and there's probably a funding problem in developing gas/diesel tech cars for the future. 

Seven Observations

 1.  Maybe up until 20 years ago....there was only one subject/topic that you needed to avoid with Germans....that being Nazis/the war.  

I'd say today....the list of topics is getting near twenty-to-thirty (you should avoid any situation where AfD is brought up....don't discuss taxation crap....depending on the party---you might want to avoid a positive-negative talk about public TV or TV-taxes....etc).  

2.  The sugar tax is coming....1 July 2027.  What this amounts to?  A 1-liter Coke bottle (Rewe grocery) currently runs 1.59 Euro....when the full impact occurs....it'll be near 1.91 Euro....but you have VAT-up the increase (figure 6 cents)....so the bottle of Coke will be 1.97.  Figure 2027/2028 inflation?  A one-liter container will be 2.00 to 2.05.

Sugared-up ice tea (2 liter) will go to around 2.50 to 3.00 Euro....depending on the grocery.

I brought this up to the wife (German)....she's of the belief....for 90-percent of people, nothing will change.  They will drink sodas at the same rate, and pay the tax.  The marginally-getting-by folks?  She thinks they'd have to cut sugar drinks by 50-precent.  

Safe at this point?  Beer and wine.  Maybe some folks will flip from sugar-drinks to beer.

3.  Over the past week....lot of hype over the coalition of Merz...collapsing....with the SPD exiting.

Some belief for a short period....a minority-government might run (say for 3 to 6 months).

If I were speculating....the collapse would likely occur by early January, after the SPD chooses it's new leadership.

4.  New poll done in the NRW state.

So CDU would win....but they've lost around 8 points.  If the poll is accurate....CDU has to partner in a state-coalition with the SPD, and Greens....meaning highly diluted CDU brand in leadership.

Cause for this?  AfD is carving into CDU votes.

Election?  Still 7 months away.

5.  First indicators of student demonstrations (similar to France)....seen at a school in Berlin.  Demonstration size?  A pitiful 100.  But they blocked entry for everyone else.  They say more money needs to flow into the school.

6.  Some chatter starting up at the EU....debate over the right-to-asylum.  

7.  Long-term winter weather chatter for Germany?  Mostly....the weather guys are suggesting a more-than-normal mild winter....fairly wet (meaning rain....not snow).

My Love-Hate View Of DHL

 DHL is the German postal-delivery service....mostly for packages/bulk stuff.  For me....it is the alternative to Amazon-delivery.  I'm not saying I hate Amazon-delivery....but I have had enough poor situations....that I'm willing to accept DHL.

In my village, they added the 'boxes'....about 3 minutes walking from the house....there's a pick-up point.  You show your smart-phone screen....a barcode, and a door pops open.  It was advertised in the beginning....as easy.  On my first trip over....it failed.  My delivery eventually got reversed, and sent back.  

I went to the local post office to quiz the gal there.  She (being German)...admitted she knew almost nothing about the 'boxes', the barcode crap, or the tech involved. Not to openly be critical over German women, but I get the impression that 75-percent of them are tech-limited....meaning tech-crap barely works.

I would eventually find a YouTube video that explained everything in simplicity....oddly done by a Indian-guy.

So for a year or two....things worked with the 'boxes'.  Then the next issue came up.  They upgraded the App, and I wasted two-to-three hours....getting it to sync-up with the 'boxes'.  

This past week, the wife (German) came to me....her packages are being sent to the 'boxes' and NO email comes from DHL to get her to pick up the stuff.

I thought....simple enough...log in and check on the account.  Well...the App won't allow a log-in, without a pin number, and it refuses to send to the wife's email address.

Me?  I thought....send a customer complaint.  After three days....they (DHL) responded. Basically, they wanted her to call in....request a delete on her account, and start from scratch....whole new DHL account.

Yeah....as much as they convey this should be a simple task.....a simple App.....they prove over and over that it's prone to fail.  

This Starlink-EU Chatter

 Starlink....a Elon-'monster'....has basically carved out one-party only business.  So in the last week or two....the EU stood up and said 'no-more'.  They intend to fast-track Project Bromo, a joint venture by Airbus, Thales, and Leonardo....compete against Starlink.

Problems?  I gazed at the agenda.

There's to be arguments within the EU over where the build will occur, and jobs are divided up. 

Then there's a funding problem....where Airbus will probably ask for direct EU funding for several years.

Will European folks be given a decent rate for the Bromo-product (cheaper than Starlink)?  Some folks laugh over that idea.

Will some mandate force you into using Bromo....instead of Starlink?  So far....no one suggests that.

After pondering this a while....I asked myself....how long before a Chinese version of Starlink is parked over Europe, and cheap rates to Bromo or Starlink?

16 Oct 2026: Germany: 8 Stories

 1.  AfD Party....locally in Berlin-City.....have set up a party headquarters in a structure on Köllnischer Park 1.  So the neighbors?  Well....a German language school for non-Germans, a sex-fetish 'club', and a college alternate site.

Yeah....odd mix of folks renting in the same structure area.

2.  Some belief that the SPD Party meeting in early January....will reset the leadership of the party....with Klingbeil unlikely to still be party-'boss' (he will still be Finance Minister).  

Party needs a 'reboot'....lingering around 13-to-14 percent in national polls. If you go back 30-to-40 years...the SPD were the party of the working-class union-guy/gal.  You can't really ID them as such today.

3.  With the new increase on the smokes tax....you can figure a pack of 20....at twelve Euro in cost ($13, single pack).  So if you were a pack a day smoker....you'd need 360 Euro ($400) a month for the habit.  At some point, a massive drop in smokers will occur, and the tax folks will be in shock...missing funds.

I worked with a German in 1978....who smoked through 1.5 packs a day.  Doubt if he could finance his habit today. 

4.  Within VW....the ID E-car group....is preparing a recall for the vehicle....concerning the batteries.  What apparently exists...under certain rare conditions....the battery can catch on fire.

5.  WELT piece: Some school in Berlin had to go to court....ordering students not to engage in prayer....mostly because it was a 'risk' to school peace/safety.  Judge apparently agrees....it sets some people (juveniles) off.  

6.  This France-chatter over  softening EU car CO₂ emission rules?

For the Germans....it's basically relaxation of CO2 targets for cars.  For the French....it's a win because Germany now has to accept a carefully written definition of “Made in Europe.”

7.  Federal Minister of Construction (SPD).....announcing some serious control/limits on expropriation (where you use legal methods to seize property/buildings and later pay for 'acquisition').  

8.  Term 'd-you' refers to the new digital 'wallet' that the German gov't has approved....where you'd have your national ID card....digitally placed.

UK Poll

 I read through a Telegraph piece this AM.....some group did a poll....asking folks (men/women) if they would enlist to defend the UK....if a invasion occurred.  36-percent said 'YES'....rest said no (figure two-thirds of the public).

For an hour, I've been pondering this.

I've come to two thoughts.

First, why bother financing a military?  I'd shut down the Army, Navy and Air Force.  It's waste of spending.

Second, if I were President Trump....after the Greenland chatter success....I'd announce that the US (giving them no timetable) will be invading the UK. I'd lay out the plan....no more driving on the left-side of the road....the King can stay....Harry and Meghan can stay but need a real job....dissolve the BBC....and make Bond a gin guy.

Half of the folks willing to sign-up and defend the isle....will be pro-Trump anyway.  Remainder will just accept the fact.  

My question....how did this character of the Kingdom...dissolve away?

German Train Stations, Drinking, and Booze

 When I arrived in West Germany in 1978....one of the top hundred things that fascinated me....were train stations (bahnhofs).

First time upon stepping into the Frankfurt station....I probably spent an hour just standing there and admiring the landscape.

Over the course of the next two years....I traveled around the country and probably admired at least thirty different train stations.  I got to a point of rating them....with Frankfurt usually set at the top....closely followed by Munich and Hamburg. 

The Frankfurt station had probably three or four bars at the time.  If you stood around, yeah....there were probably forty-odd guys usually in some state of drunkenness.  They'd find their way to a platform, and catch the train out.  

Around 1990....as the wall came down....drugs increased around almost all German train stations.  If you walk out the eastern end of Hamburg....for a block....there's a four-star drug zone.  Frankfurt?  If you walk out the eastern side....for about a block....there's a junkie/dealer-zone.  Locals know of the issue....complaining to the city and police....with occasional raids to show 'something' got done.

I'd generally say from 2010 on....most of the metro stations have a boozing problem.   If you confronted the Bahn executive management (country-level)...they'd tell you the safety/security around the big stations is now a top-three problem.  So going to a dry-station concept....is the only option left.

Will it change much?  I'm of the mind that shops around the Bahnhofs....will get increased business...selling beer/booze to the same crowd, and the station security folks will be mostly monitoring consumption within the station....either kicking the boozers out, or detaining them for a dozen hours (to dry out). 

The next target?  I'd suggest the druggies being selected by the end of 2027.

'Path' of Things

I noticed yesterday....out of a suburb area of Paris....Saint-Denis....they had a 'ban' started up....signed by the mayor of the district (Bally Bagayoko).

Booze sales....banned.

Yeah, it is a Muslim-majority suburb.

Concerned?  If you were a resident of the area....you'd drive an extra five minutes into a non-controlled area, and buy booze.

Big deal?  I doubt it.....but people will sit there and converse about how things evolved.

15 Oct 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

 1. This Nord Stream II bomb case in Hamburg.

Basically, the prosecution has evidence to show the Ukrainian guy reserved the boat, paid for the boat, picked-up the boat, went to location at the site, and there's bomb-residue on the vessel (collected by the police).  

What the defense attorney said yesterday....the Ukrainian guy was under orders to blow up the LNG pipe...by the Ukrainian government.  

Judges in this case.....in a strange mess.  They'd probably like to agree....war-is-war.  But if you say this was OK....wouldn't that open the door for more Ukrainian attacks on German soil?  

Lengthy case?  It's hard to see how it'd be any longer than four weeks.

My guess....some guilty situation will occur....with the guy spending three to five years in a prison.  

2.  Odd jet-fuel problem in Frankfurt....there is a shortage being reported.  

3.  Business report via Focus....China is improving it's production of heat-pumps.  Just guessing...in five years....majority of sales would lean toward Chinese-made pumps...instead of EU-produced.

4.  Talks in Berlin-City over a Linke Party-led coalition....have restarted (with Greens/SPD).

5.  Alcohol-consumption/sales at train stations....now banned.  What the path was?  I'd say over the past twenty years....stations became a magnet to 'hang-out', and guys/gals got 'stupid'.  

There was always a drinking problem around the train stations (when I arrived in 1978)...but it mostly involved transit-passengers.  You had two hours to waste at some leg of a trip....you sat and had two or three beers.  

There's simply more homeless folks using the stations, and the added burden of drug sales/use around the stations.  

6.  If you view Berlin-City bickering/discussions.....the local Greens and the national Greens....aren't really reading off the same 'script'.  

7.  Sugar-tax profits in Germany?  Once implemented, mid-2027....the federal government estimates it will collect 690 million Euro next year, with projected revenues of 925 million Euro for 2028 and between €875 and €890 million for later years.  

If you do the math, for a 1-liter bottle of Coke, it will be around 32 cents extra on cost.  Sugar-free sodas?  No added burden.

I'll just say...if you asked a hundred German adults....no one much thinks consumption will lessen. Most will suggest that this is the beginning of a long-path....to tax all 'evil' things.  Chewing gum, chocolate, and chips....likely to be next.

Odd French Poll

 IFOP did a poll with French Islamic folks....asking what happens if next year's election occurs, and Le Pen wins.

46-percent of those polled....said they'd 'leave'.  

First, how many people would fit into this 'threat'?  I researched it....5.5-to-6 million (presently).  

Second....a realistic reaction?  I'm not so sure that bulk of the 46-percent are serious.  

But lets carry this to May 2027....Le Pen wins, and then what?  Maybe realistically....around 1-million to 1.5-million start to think 'exit'....where exactly would they go?  The only French-speaking country for a exit-plan...would be Belgium.  Some might consider Spain or Germany.  

Reaction in Belgium, Spain or Germany?  Probably negative, but since the folks have EU residency....they are free to move anywhere within the EU.

Curiosity?  Well...over half of the Islamic folks polled....said they weren't likely to move/exit, and obviously weren't too worried about Le Pen or changes coming.  That might be worth thinking about.  

What Was The Bavarian 'Circle'?

 The Bavarian Circle (in German: Bayerischer Reichskreis) was one of the Imperial Circles (Reichskreise) of the Holy Roman Empire....lasting from around 1500 to 1806)....figure 306 years.

Starting around 1500.....it was a organization under Emperor Maximilian I, the Diet of Augsburg.  There were six of these circles in the beginning.

Purpose?  Defensive matters....collecting of taxes, carrying out public safety/peace, regulating commerce.

14 Oct 2026: Germany: 5 Stories

 1.  McDonalds-Germany says in about two weeks....they will end normal sales of the McRib.  Yeah, a shock.  

Around five times a year (on-average), I stop and 'taste' a McRib.  I agree....it's greasy, fatty and high-sodium/sugar.  I usually get a nutrition lecture by my German wife if she detects any sign of eating a McRib.  I will miss it.

On the menu, for 37 years.

2.  Berlin-City talks over a coalition gov't led by the Linke Party and junior-partners SPD and Greens....have paused.  

Some speculation that a coalition build under the Linke Party is not possible. 

3.  BER (Berlin's Airport) believes there's a downward trend coming shortly, as RyanAir halts operations at the airport.  Increased taxes/fees drove this issue.

4.  Trial opens in Hamburg....against the guy that is suspected to be head of the Nord Stream II blow-up deal.  Ukrainian guy, if you were wondering.

5.  German sugar tax will start in July 2027.....agreement reached (2 stages of installment). 

Q-and-A: Migration Into Germany

 1.  What is the form for migration?

Niederlassungserlaubnis (basically a settlement permit  or a permanent residence permit).

2.  Always 4 pages?

Well.....it differs state-by-state...most are 4 pages. 

3.  Always in paper-format?

NO.....you might run into a office where it has to be digital/on-line only.

4.  This leads to residence card later?

Yes, the Aufenthaltstitel / eAT).

5.  Can you survive without a permit?  

I'll just say it'd be awful hard, and complicated.  If I were speculating....yeah, there might be 100,000 individuals in Germany....longer than 3 months, and intending to survive without a permit.

6.  Can you be refused a permit?

I can think of generally eight reasons: security threat deemed, zero language talent, lack of pension contributions (60 months before retirement), no skill or retirement funds, missing paperwork/facts on your ID, data in the form left blank (intentionally).

7.  Most positive story I've heard?

I was in a German class with a late 20's African guy who'd run a grocery store (since age 14).  Throughout the six months he was in the language class....he was working at a local German grocery....month by month....moving up.  The store 'boss' gave him a 'will-hire' note at some point....saying it was a job-offer to be a shift-manager, if he completed the integration class.

Diesel Chatter

 Yesterday....Chancellor Merz gave a talk:  he basically gave a thumbs-down on the  US-Russia diesel deal.  Quotes: "Such a decision is out of the question for Germany and Europe."  "Russia will only negotiate seriously under pressure, and that is why we are maintaining our sanctions."

I asked AI....what EU countries ALREADY buy Russian diesel....Italy, Cyprus, France, Spain, Romania, Greece, Ireland and Netherlands.

Did Merz know this?  I doubt it.

Is it possible that Germany already buys diesel off Italy or France....but it's a middle-man and actually Russia producing it?  Well....yeah, it's a remarkable possibility. 

After a while....it turns into a comedy.

Why German Politicians Have 'Heartburn' Over Social Media

 Once upon a time....German society existed off a somewhat controlled newspaper, and radio-TV market controlled by public TV managers (controlled by appointed state-monitors).  

You had mostly a left-of-center, right-of-center, and far-left political situation. Since the 1920s....with the Nazi-era added....this was the norm for public news.

If you reviewed newspapers and magazines from 1945 on....they had liberties to publish, and mostly stayed within a controlled thought process.

Commercial TV came in the late 1980s, but they tended to stick with sex and lust stuff....not so much politics.

All of this was the norm until you start to get around 2005-to-2015 period....where the internet and social media arrived.  We were finally at a point where 'control' was not a handy-tool.

The arrival of Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter/X?  In the beginning, there weren't that many Germans getting into social media, and it was mostly a entertainment 'vehicle'.  

Twitter....all the way through the Covid-era...either via the EU, or via German controls....they could keep people from social commentary.  Then....things rapidly changed.

The real fear?  You could have forty-odd Germans in a single week....asking a simple question....which triggers half-a-million German voters to get angry....discontented over fake agendas.  A lot of the disgruntlement today in Germany...comes from people asking stupid questions, and the gov't unable to really resolve the argument or to find clarity.

The weakness factor for both the SPD Party and CDU-CSU Party?  Half of the problem is social media folks dumping over the lack of action or inability to solve problems. 

Maximum use of ARD/ZDF public TV....to create a message/brand, and get around social media 'hype'?  Well....yeah, that is part of the landscape as well.

The path ahead?  I'd say that the EU has to find some way of controlling social media (mostly X), and prevent open public discussions....to lessen the tension and prevent public rage.  In some odd way...to create counter-rage.  In some way, you need to invent fake Nazi-outrage or fake Putin-outrage....to accomplish the goal.

The Three April 2027 German State Elections

 So there are three state elections in a one-month period of 2027...which matter.

First, Schleswig-Holstein.  If you view polls....done in July (nothing since then)...CDU leads with 27-percent....SPD at 15-percent....Greens at 17-percent, and AfD at 18-percent.  Linke at 7-percent, with BSW and FDP both at 6-percent.

Oddly, nothing new since early July.  If you asked me over changes....CDU probably no longer sits at 27-percent....probably closer to 21-percent.  I'd also speculate that the SPD is closer to 12-percent...with this a race by the Greens and AfD mostly.

Second, Saarland.  Any polls in 2026?  NO....oddly, zero polling.  Toward the end of 2025....one poll put the CDU at 25-percent and the SPD Party at 27-percent.  AfD was at 23-percent.

If you asked me over changes?  I'd say both the CDU and SPD were closer to 23-to-24 percent, and AfD likely leads with 26-percent (my speculation).  

Third, Nordrhein-Westfalen (NRW).  Sep 2026 poll shows the CDU at 29-percent (down three from six months ago).  Greens at 18-percent, and SPD at 14-percent.  AfD at 22-percent.

Except for NRW....there's nothing much for the CDU to brag about.  For the SPD Party...if you were a liberal voter (lefty)....you are more likely to vote Green, than SPD.  

I can see a reason or two to collapse the federal gov't presently, but saying the SPD 'gains' some positive numbers?  No....it's mostly a Green Party gain.

Merz carrying any weight or 'hope' for April?  No....that's a given in the situation.  

13 Oct 2026: Germany: 5 Sories

 1.  Apparently, over the weekend....French hackers remotely defrosted refrigerators at several hundred French supermarkets.  Lot of lost food.....spoiled crap.

2.  AfD Party in Baden-Wuerttemberg....tasked the state to provide data...on child marriages.  Apparently, there are a fair number reported (not a German thing).

Reading over the piece....there's at least eight child marriages that were legally annulled (past 7 years).   Then there's 350-odd additional cases....going back to 2012)....which HAVE NOT been annulled.

One case (example).....11-year old Iraqi girl....hooked-up to a 17-year old Iraqi boy.  

If I read the piece correctly...there's two cases where underage Germans were involved.

I'll just say it...not something that Germans support.  After age 18...no one can say a word.

3.  Interesting discussion off ARD's 'Hard But Fair' public forum show....talking over the coalition mess in the Bundestag.  Because of the numbers for AfD....the CDU-CSU and SPD folks are forced into a partnership which can't really function long-term.  So the guest spoke up to the idea of a minority government.  Germany had this in the late 1920s....marginally functional during that attempt.

4.  Gov't suggestion....tax on AI revenues.  If you make a profit....in whatever manner you cut costs....you'd have to pay a tax.

5.  Porsche lining up to lay off 8,000 employees, and dump half of all management positions.

If There Were A National German Election 'Now'?

 My humble thoughts.....very unlikely for remainder of 2026.  I'm likely to believe if you were forcing it....there's 3 state elections in mid-April....where the SPD probably will get more votes than the CDU. 

It might be a strategy to exist....gaming the system now....to get more state votes and show a 'trend'.

In this strategy....you collapse the gov't and gear a nat'l election in two months.  

Timing?  I would NOT do it (collapsing) any later than mid-December....forcing the election end of Feb.

Candidates?  I really can't think of any SPD person who'd hype it big-time.  If you asked best scenario....someone might drag the 'lame-horse-SPD-guy'  up around 17-to-18 percent max (hoping the Greens aren't do any better).

CDU?  It won't be Merz...more likely to Premier-President Wust/Soder.  I don't see either getting the CDU-CSU to any point better than 22-percent.

Win by AfD, but unable to form a coalition?  Yeah....that's most likely scenario.

Any big advantages for snap-election now?  Other than the 3 state elections or the France election in April/May....there's no real reason to hype it.

Final word?  Having a snap-election now.....probably leads to a 2028 snap-election again.  Fairly weak gov't....no matter who is in charge.

Nat'l Polling?

 INSA did a different poll over the past week, They split the CDU and CSU up....two collections:

CDU: polls 13.5-percent (down roughly .9-percent) and CSU at 4-percent (down .6-percent).

AfD?  Polling at 30.5-percent

SPD: 14.5-percent, Greens at 14.5-percent.  Both unchanged.

Linke: up .5-percent, to 10.5-percent

If you asked me over indicators....in 90 days (early Jan 2027)....I'd say the AfD will be close to 33-percent, and the CDU-CSU situation will be at 15.5-percent.  

Both the CDU and SPD top level need some type of 'face-change'....new 'brand'.  

My view on the top five political topics?  Job losses, cost of energy, public-safety, migration reform/deportation results, and urbanization-housing 'fears'.  If you listed the top twenty cities of Germany....most all have a affordable housing 'mess' which needs to be resolved.  Same cities....fear of crime and mafia views.  

SPD Turmoil?

This AM....German Federal Minister of the Unemployed and Social Affairs....Barbel Bas....gave 'notice' (leaving).

She is the co-'boss' of the SPD Party.

Reasons?  Not much given.

What happens next?  The SPD has to have a election in early January to find the new co-'boss', and I suspect some name will be given for the new Minister....at the same time.

Likeable?  Within the SPD Party, yes.  If you asked for the accomplishments of the unemployed sector....there's nothing much to brag about.

My thoughts....there are several elections (state) in 2027, and maybe the party is eager to find a 'change' to the polling.

12 Oct 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

 1.  Saxony-Anhalt and BMW story continues on.  I noted over the weekend....someone connected the dots and laid out the reality....BMW already leases/sells limos to dictators around the world.  

Seems like BMW created a even bigger mess to clean up.  

2.  Odd evening with ARD's public forum show....Premier-President of Bavaria....Soder....appeared, and talked over the idea that if you were a CDU-member and in dissent....you ought to leave the party.  

To be honest....it's probably in the 10-to-20 percent range of disgruntled CDU Party members presently.

3.  Polish police are holding a guy....who'd had a plan to attack the Polish PM.  Still no clear agenda or ID.

4.  This oncoming sugar tax...isn't exactly supported by 'all' CDU politicians.  At least nine CDU-CSU Bundestag members are taking a negative position on the tax.

5.  WELT chatter.....French Fry prices expected to jump in coming months in Germany....some crop issues.

6.  1.4-million folks have received continued unemployment money....for five-plus years...of which, 37-percent are NON-Germans.  (N-TV this AM)

BREXIT Twist?

 This AM....I read through a piece....the UK gov't is going to lay out the idea.....that Russia got into 'meddling' for the 2016 BREXIT referendum.  Formal complaint?  Yeah.

Next?  Unknown.  I would imagine the PM and crew will say the referendum was not valid and they intend to rejoin the EU within weeks.  The EU?  They might be standing there in shock...never expecting this strategy.

Bigger shock?  Putin himself probably will admit the idea came up, and he voiced the idea that keeping the UK within the EU....was the primary goal....to make the EU ultra-weak.

Brits believing the Labour Party 'story'?  I would imagine that 40-percent of folks are ultra-skeptical of the Russian-BREXIT story.

Next?  Putin might admit that he did meddle to get the Labour Party win, and that it's not a valid government presently.

Twist....upon twist....upon twist.

Assassination Plan?

In the last hour.....Polish police report....having received information on a possible assassination attempt on Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and deputy prime minister Kamysz.

No actual attempt...just a plan in progress (the way I read the hype).

Who behind it?  Unknown.

The two guys...slightly left-of-center?  Strangely...true.

Putin figures into it?  I wouldn't speculate on that (yet).  

The Four Votes Story

 Saxony-Anhalt (the state) held the Premier-President/Speaker of the House vote this past week.  They expected 44 votes (from AfD and BSW members).  

Well....the final vote was 48...meaning that four votes came from the SPD, CDU or Greens.

There is some speculation (no facts) that the four were CDU voters.....which angers the national CDU folks.

What the CDU told it's folks to vote?  Abstain....so it would be neither a yes-vote or no-vote.

So this brings up the national feelings from CDU-CSU voters....would they split themselves in some way and half of them be pro-AfD?  No proof or facts to support the ide

Could things get heated-up in 2028...with a early election, and the CDU introduces a Chancellor candidate that half the party isn't happy about?  I'd suggest this scenario is now possible.

These four guys keeping quiet?  That's the remarkable thing.  

My Humble Thoughts Over The BMW-AfD 'Rage'

To set the stage for this 'comedy'....back in the September 2026 state election in Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD (Alternative for Germany) won about 44-percen of the vote.

As of 6 Oct....Tobias Rausch (AfD Party) was elected President (Speaker) of the state parliament (Landtag).....with AfD and BSW votes.

Oddly enough....the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt is classified by the state intelligence agency as “gesichert rechtsextremistisch” (confirmed right-wing extremist).   This means...at the federal-level....they are being 'spied-upon' as a suspect extremist group.

As Speaker of the state parliament....Rausch is entitled to a leased 'limo' (typically a Mercedes, Audi or BMW).  BMW had previously submitted a leasing offer for the Landtag president’s official car.

On the same day Rausch was elected, BMW’s headquarters withdrew the offer. Adding to the epic saga....no other major German premium manufacturer has bid for this specific contract (Saxony-Anhalt).

So....rage has started up, and you can easily make the statement....30-percent of the German public is peeved over BMW....and I would imagine as Audi and Mercedes lack of actions are obvious....they also will be in the crapper.

Tesla offering a limo?  Well....they don't really make one.  Cyber-truck?  Well....you might make the case that the Cyber-truck is a awkward pick for limo-service.  Would Tesla offer a lease deal?  Maybe.

Other leased BMWs in the state?  No one keeps a record, but I would imagine....if you counted mayors, and state agencies....there's probably a minimum of 200.  Would the state declare all of them null and void?  It'd be fairly crazy but possible.

This peeving other non-AfD players?  Some BSW folks....FDP folks, have openly said this is a stupid mess to start up.  If you had 100,000 Germans get hyped-up negative and anti-BMW....you might create a economic problem with serious consequences.  

For reference, there are only three limo models in Germany: BMW 7 Series (incl. i7), Mercedes-Benz S-Class, and Audi A8.  

Could Saxony-Anhalt start a trend where all state vehicles are non-German (Toyota, Kai, etc)?  Well....it's best not to bring up this idea.  

'Ragebait'?

 Every October....the German-youth word of the year is selected.  This is the word that has come out of thin air....got hyped-up by German teens, and is nominated for 'notice'.  Ragebait is the 2026 word.

So what it means.....social media folks (influencers) hype something in a fake way....to get folks riled up (not necessarily kids)....so you click on it or get all chatty.

Once the German wife explained this to me....I asked....why limit it to social media.....German news and politicians also stage ragebait.  'OH NO' came the defensive position on the other folks.   News folks would never stage a ragebait episode (only influencers do that).

I paused....kept my mouth shut.

Kids getting smarter?  Yeah....I'd say they are.

Next Brandenburg State Election?

Not until the fall of 2029.  However, a poll was released this week.

Current numbers?

AfD at 40-percent.  SPD at 20 percent.  Greens at 7-percent.  CDU marginally at 9-percent. BSW at 7-percent.  Linke at 9-percent.

What would worry the SPD and CDU folks.....this is way early on polling and it's a bad sign of issues to come over the next two or three years.  I'd say it's possible that AfD could clear near 50-percent by 2029. 

Russia Story

I follow this Russia-Plague story a fair amount....maybe 30 min per day.

So this odd feature comes out yesterday....where they note the broken test tube, and what appears to have taken place over a couple of days.

There is some belief that after the tube broke....they went to a protocol where she needed to be tested.....over and over (say a couple of times per day).

There is some belief that a false-positive test (or two came), and the protocol came to occur....entered into a hospital unit, given propofol and then put on a ventilator.  Yes....the same protocol during COVID.

So there is some belief that she never had actual true-blue plague....just tests showing positive.

If this were true....seeing how screwed up things got....you probably don't want to admit the false-positive test and the way that you might have caused her death.

Lot of speculation?  Yeah....but once you establish the protocols.....questions would pop up

Simplifying This AfD-BMW 'Torrid' Tale

 Announced today....head 'boss' of the BMW 7-series executive class cars....said they would NOT provide a executive car for lease....to the new Premier-President of Saxony-Anhalt (new guy is AfD Party).  

Status-thing.....for most all Premier-Presidents (16 of them)...either Audi, Mercedes or BMW. 

So the AfD members (figure 30-percent of the nation)....have kinda said 'fine'.....suggesting they'd go to Elon's Tesla.  

Poor position for BMW?  I would say that it's a remarkable public position to take, and if you ever needed special help/funding....Saxony-Anhalt would not be the place to ask for help (in the future).

9 Oct 2026: Germany: 4 Stories

 1.  France Finance Minister told the UK folks....you can rejoin the EU 'anytime'...UK responded that a 2nd ballot might be coming up.  

2.  German insurance company (AOK) studied state of Hessen....says one out of eight adults have depression symptoms.

3.  This search in the Munich area for a Puma?  Continues on.  Personally, I think it's a Lynx.

4.  German smokes-tax going up....pack of 20....will be selling for 9.10 Euro (from 8 Euro currently). Will occur in 2027.

Possible US Base at Lithuania?

 Well...in the past month....Lithuania has offered the United States a permanent military base...suggesting they'd cover some/all costs involved.

Serious?  Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius made the comment on 6 October 2026 that Lithuania is ready to pay for a permanent U.S. base if Washington agrees to station troops there on a lasting basis. 

US looking over the idea?  Yes.

Past history?  Over seven years...around 1,000 US Army folks (armor battalion) have rotated yearly through the state.

The structure/area offered?  The Pabradė training area.  Max basing?  Probably in the 1,500 to 2,000 personnel.

History?  It's been a military site for roughly 125 years.....44,000 acres.

50 km from the Belarus border?  Yeah, that sums up closeness to Russia.  Swampy?  Probably about half of the military site....I'd put into the swampy category.  Awful sandy region.  

If you read though the chatter....what Lithuania wants is more of a permanent deal....rather than rotations. I don't see the US Army signing up for 2-year tours being the norm....just more rotational situations where you have 1,000 to 1,500 folks coming in for training purposes.  

Any Evidence of Riots in Germany?

 NO.  ZERO.

I probably read of a dozen social media types trying to suggest the riots had 'arrived'.....but all BS.

Preventative measures?  If you were a German student on some agenda with violence....the police will detain you....call the parents, and start measures over them.  

Also, you'd be playing into the hands of the AfD Party....suggesting that the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition were 'weak' on crime.

The Puma Hunt?

Over the past week....around Notzingermoos (Munich Airport region)....there's been a 'hunt' going on...for a suspected Puma.

Police and hunters involved.

Police involvement?  Well....they searched using helicopters, drones, ground teams, and nighttime thermal imaging.  So far....nothing

Local belief?  There's 'something'....maybe just a lynx or wild-cat.  

Some folks 'want' to belief in the Puma situation.  

10 Oct 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

 1.  First big AfD push for the fall period....asking for a comparison of German funding for Ukraine....compared against infrastructure, school building, and pension funding.  CDU/CSU, Greens and SPD don't really want to talk over this agenda.

It's roughly around 100-billion Euro that Germany sends to Ukraine, and AfD is suggesting that it's time to halt the practice.  

2.  Not in all cases....but in a majority....if you have a E-car and want to charge it up at a public spot....it often requires three apps, two charging cards, and the ability to study tariff tables. 

So yesterday....regional court in Munich said 'enough'....simplify the 'mess'.

3.  Berlin region.....car goes head-first into a group of four E-scooter riders.....killing all four. Accident occurred in evening hours (darkness), and the car was passing another vehicle....probably not seeing the approaching E-scooter riders until the last moment.

4.  RyanAir has quit the Bremen Airport....saying escalation of fees makes it non-profitable.

5.  In case you thought that the riots in France were the ONLY big deal....France is now noted as heavily indebted and has to raise almost 80 billion euros (about $100-billion) a year just for interest payments alone. 

Presently....France is currently in the same status as Greece was in 2007/2008.  

6.  Saxony-Anhalt speculation...in the vote to get the AfD candidate as Premier-President....it's believed that several CDU members of the state assembly....voted for the AfD guy (in secret).

BBC: Just Odd

Apparently, in the UK recently....there was a police raid on a 'gang' (undescribed)....with 3 folks detained.  Chief crime suggested?  Well....gang was people-smuggling and they had some Brit lawyers advising them....to help migrants pretend to be gay to get asylum in the UK.

I sat and pondered over this.  Fake-gay.

Trend thing, I imagine.

But apparently....once you fill out the sheet and claim gay-status....you are virtually guaranteed 'stay-status'.

How many are fake-gay?  It could be into the tens of thousands.  Trying to establish facts....are near impossible.

Oddly, back in Afghanistan, Iraq or Syria....playing the gay-card....was bound to get you into serious trouble.

In the UK....it's a plus-up thing.

The lawyers in this effort?  Some judge is going to task them to explain things, and it's bound to be something that they don't want to discuss.