I sat this morning and was reading a piece on the Hamburg Morganpost (regional newspaper for Hamburg).
Although I'm more attracted to business and political stories....occasionally crime stories will catch my eye.
So, this was the story for a Wednesday morning (0:47AM) crime. Somewhere near the Reeperbahn subway point in Hamburg....in the Altona-Altstadt part of town (west part of town)....some 34-year old German gal was attempting return home. At some point, she is confronted by a Moroccan juvenile (said to be 16 years old), who attempted to rob her.
The Morganpost points out....that the guy came paperless to Germany in the last couple of months of 2016....so his ID and age isn't exactly reliable. Hint: he might be sixteen....he might not be sixteen.
So as this robbery is attempted....she apparently does fight back, and ends up being pushed off the standing area, and onto the tracks. She bangs her head fairly hard, and is unconscious. Luckily, no trains approaching, and emergency medical folks arrive to transport her off to the hospital.
The 'kid'? Well, the cops pulled up the video (there's lots of cameras around this subway station), and they have a pretty good picture of the kid. In fact, it took only a few hours for the cops to find the kid and detain him.
What the Morganpost points out (maybe via internal cop comments) is that they have another robbery at the subway station with a woman, and think he's connected to that one as well.
The charges at present? Theft and dangerous bodily harm. If this were theft alone, he'd be talking about three or four months in some local jail. The dangerous bodily harm charge, if convicted....section 226 of the German code suggests between one and ten years....depending on the severity of the victim's injury.
My humble guess is that the cops will lean back toward BaMF, and demand an accounting of his real ID and if he is 16 or not. The guy probably won't cooperate but they will eventually make some factual determination (maybe by X-ray technology).
Six months down the way....a court will convene and some public defender will do his best but with video and victim comments....the kid will face some new reality in life....prison. If he's lucky, the victim comes out of the hospital stay with no long-term effect. If she has permanent effects? He's going to be in the prison for the full ten years.
Where all this leads onto? You have a group of people who just wished on a new life somewhere else....got transportation to somewhere else....and then arrived to discover that it costs real money to survive somewhere else.
There is no plan B.
I've sat and looked at dozens of crime-related stories with migrants (they flow across a wide spectrum of countries) in Germany over the past three years. There are typically two characters. The first is some professional thug, who is a permanent thief and he was probably a thief before he ever arrived in Germany. The second is the guy who just left his homeland in search of the better life and had no real plan, and later ends up as a small-time criminal of sorts....either conducting snatch-and-go robberies, shoplifting, drug sales, home-burglary, or pick-pocketing....as their way to survive.
Both characters are problems. The second guy....the accidental loser with no real plan....is just surviving from day to day, and eventually will screw up and be caught by the cops. The first guy....the semi-professional...might be smart enough to get by for several years before he makes a mistake.
Twenty years ago, Germans didn't worry that much about either thugs or criminals. You could walk around areas like Hamburg-Altonia (I walked there in 1984) and feel completely safe at 10PM at night. Today? You have to look over your shoulder at night in most all German urbanized areas. In the block or two around the Frankfurt railway station, after dark, it's probably not a safe place to be unless you are in a group.
For this Moroccan kid? If he'd just done a plain snatch-and-go theft....he'd be looking at short period of time in jail. He's giving up possibly ten years of his life....for a crime that likely nets him fifty to a hundred Euro. I just shake my head over this.
Thursday, January 19, 2017
Three of 547
I'm often fascinated by numbers. Late yesterday, the German news folks came out with an interesting story.
After the Berlin terror act (12 dead and 50-plus folks injured), there's this big open question of how it happened. The German cops do an amazing job and in four weeks, there are hundreds of pages of data/info on how this Tunisian guy got into the country, and what he managed to do over a year-long period. You didn't really need a truth-commission (the normal invention with incompetent politicians asking questions). So, they took that info and laid as a template across their known list of 547 individuals that they are watching on a daily basis.
Yeah....547 individuals out of 82-million....which the Germans have to devote assets, time, and money onto....but can't really arrest or detain, and kicking them out of the country isn't exactly an act that they are capable of.
How do you get on the list of the 547? That's a question-mark. Over the last year or two, journalists will hint that it tends to be leads that are developed....you were hanging out with some extremist guy and said something.....so some German security official simply made the decision that you needed to be watched.
This template from the analysis of the Berlin terror act? No one says much about this either. We know that the Berlin terrorist traveled around a lot, and was closely connected to the drug-trade (cocaine and ecstasy were his products). We also know that he seemed to get into alternate ID's and continually tried to get himself registered as a new immigrant....hoping for monthly welfare money (he was fairly successful at this)....attempting this nine times.
We come to this template exercise over the past week. Funny thing. Out of the 547 individuals that they say they are watching....they can't find three of them.
Yeah, they just up and disappeared.
The Berlin leadership and the cops aren't saying much. I'm guessing there is a full-scale man-hunt going on in the background. Associates and friends are being asked what happened to each of the three. Maybe they went back to the mideast. Maybe they went to Belgium. Maybe they just took a month off and are in some vacation resort. The longer that the three are not found? That's a problem.
One might sit there after a while and ask the question....did the three just dump their ID and go to a new name, new ID, new city? I'm of the opinion that this would be rather simple and that the German method of controlling the public just isn't the perfect system that everyone is led to believe. The fact that the Berlin terrorist sat and registered himself nine times under nine different ID's....makes me think that the system is fairly screwed up. The finger-print system should have done a review and within 24-hours been able to rat on the applicant that it matched another ID in the system.
Should people be worrying about the three? No one says much. Even if the authorities did worry, then what? A man-hunt for three guys that haven't done anything wrong yet? Even the cops would be laughing at that type of suggestion.
Over the next year, if any of the 547 individuals perform some act of terrorism....the authorities will be put into a corner and have to justify how the remaining individuals are allowed to walk freely. The minute you admitted that this many folks are not trusted anymore....but you can't arrest them, detain them, or remove them from the state....you invite public frustration. It's like being told that your particular brand of car has a unique problem and on rare occasions at 120 kph, the brakes on the front-right will go into full-effect....but it only happens three times a year on average across the whole nation....so you sit and accept this, but you quietly review options to dump the car and go to a new model with different company.
After the Berlin terror act (12 dead and 50-plus folks injured), there's this big open question of how it happened. The German cops do an amazing job and in four weeks, there are hundreds of pages of data/info on how this Tunisian guy got into the country, and what he managed to do over a year-long period. You didn't really need a truth-commission (the normal invention with incompetent politicians asking questions). So, they took that info and laid as a template across their known list of 547 individuals that they are watching on a daily basis.
Yeah....547 individuals out of 82-million....which the Germans have to devote assets, time, and money onto....but can't really arrest or detain, and kicking them out of the country isn't exactly an act that they are capable of.
How do you get on the list of the 547? That's a question-mark. Over the last year or two, journalists will hint that it tends to be leads that are developed....you were hanging out with some extremist guy and said something.....so some German security official simply made the decision that you needed to be watched.
This template from the analysis of the Berlin terror act? No one says much about this either. We know that the Berlin terrorist traveled around a lot, and was closely connected to the drug-trade (cocaine and ecstasy were his products). We also know that he seemed to get into alternate ID's and continually tried to get himself registered as a new immigrant....hoping for monthly welfare money (he was fairly successful at this)....attempting this nine times.
We come to this template exercise over the past week. Funny thing. Out of the 547 individuals that they say they are watching....they can't find three of them.
Yeah, they just up and disappeared.
The Berlin leadership and the cops aren't saying much. I'm guessing there is a full-scale man-hunt going on in the background. Associates and friends are being asked what happened to each of the three. Maybe they went back to the mideast. Maybe they went to Belgium. Maybe they just took a month off and are in some vacation resort. The longer that the three are not found? That's a problem.
One might sit there after a while and ask the question....did the three just dump their ID and go to a new name, new ID, new city? I'm of the opinion that this would be rather simple and that the German method of controlling the public just isn't the perfect system that everyone is led to believe. The fact that the Berlin terrorist sat and registered himself nine times under nine different ID's....makes me think that the system is fairly screwed up. The finger-print system should have done a review and within 24-hours been able to rat on the applicant that it matched another ID in the system.
Should people be worrying about the three? No one says much. Even if the authorities did worry, then what? A man-hunt for three guys that haven't done anything wrong yet? Even the cops would be laughing at that type of suggestion.
Over the next year, if any of the 547 individuals perform some act of terrorism....the authorities will be put into a corner and have to justify how the remaining individuals are allowed to walk freely. The minute you admitted that this many folks are not trusted anymore....but you can't arrest them, detain them, or remove them from the state....you invite public frustration. It's like being told that your particular brand of car has a unique problem and on rare occasions at 120 kph, the brakes on the front-right will go into full-effect....but it only happens three times a year on average across the whole nation....so you sit and accept this, but you quietly review options to dump the car and go to a new model with different company.
Wednesday, January 18, 2017
Mundpropaganda
There is a German word....mundpropaganda....which came to mind today.
It translates roughly into the English phrase of mouth propaganda.....meaning that verbally, some folks are disseminating a story that might be somewhat factual or correct, but fits more into a particular cause or agenda.
Germany has this interesting past with mundpropaganda. You see, when you go back to prior to mid 1400's...there wasn't much of a way to get information out to villages around Europe. Everyone depended on rumors, trader-stories, and traveler gossip to fill the imagination. You could have a small village of 200 Germans who have a dozen traders make their way through one summer, and every single detail of what they spoke about....whether true or false...became part of the beliefs of this village.
After the invention of the printing press....an odd thing happened. Newspapers arrived. To be honest, they didn't really start up until 1556...roughly a hundred years after the printing press was developed. The first one came out out of Venice, Italy. It was entitled "Written Notice" and simply was a logical way to convey news that had been heard and it was a fast and easy method to get everyone on the same level of understanding. Naturally, it cost some money. Capitalism was handcuffed to the idea in some fashion.
At that point, mundpropaganda was in a dying stage. Written propaganda would take off in various forms, and be part of European (and American history) for the next 350 years.
Then this odd thing would occur....radio and TV arrived. Mundpropaganda would make this comeback.
In the late 1920s....radio came to arrive in Europe and quickly became a big deal in Germany. The Nazi Party? They would figure out the great charm of mundpropaganda when attached to radio.
After WW II, TV was introduced, and it also became part of the mundpropaganda episode as well....throghout Germany, Europe, and the rest of the civilized world.
About twenty years ago....mundpropaganda started to falter and slip back a notch....mostly because of the internet, Facebook, Twitter, and digital innovation.
In the last couple of years, mundpropaganda proceeds on, but it's on a narrow slope. Young people aren't that hyped up on it, and prefer non-verbal propaganda tools to get their "dose". The mundpropaganda enthusiasts are working hard to pump up their "verbal-product" or hold back the non-verbal crowd. Fake news gets uttered now nightly on the German news, and accusations tend to be a regular piece of entertainment now.
I bring this up because I sat and watched ZDF 9:45PM news last night. The Mainz crew went topic number one....Donald Trump. I thought the NPD-Nazi Party decision by the German court was a bigger deal. The ZDF piece on Trump? It had this mundpropaganda-appeal, if you ask me.
Mundpropaganda depends a great deal on what you would call a "whispering campaign". This is where you suggest a group of things, which conveniently fit together and encourage the receiver of the info to think in the way of the presenter. This is where you tie a number of things together....which aren't really a news event...but simply comments or suggestions. In the middle of this....you throw five or six two-or-three liners in from contributing 'experts'. Distinguished so-and-so says this, and Distinguished so-and-so says that. In the end, you have a seven-minute piece of journalism, which doesn't really fit into one single product....but it served well to fit mundpropaganda.
The problem with mundpropaganda today? Generally, it doesn't matter if you look around the US or Germany....folks seem awful skeptical of mundpropaganda now. I can't say that they all got suddenly Einstein-smart, or just read the Cliff-notes on mundpropaganda....but it presents some problems and new trends.
If you have a growing crowd of skeptics who aren't buying into the mundpropaganda as they used to....where exactly do you go with this business? It was all a great scheme to proclaim fake news and bring folks along this trail. But if they seem to falter on fake news, and just not hype as much on mundpropaganda or start asking in-depth questions....well....there is not plan 'B' out there for this type of developing mess.
I noticed two years ago....out of Albania....that their broadcast folks had figured out that folks just weren't that hyped up anymore with their brand of journalism or mundpropaganda.....so they brought in some well-built gal to read the nightly news with a fairly open blouse. On the open blouse scale (one to ten)....after having seen a video of the news read....I'd give the Albanian gal a "9" out of a possible 10. For some reason, folks got back into the nightly news and seemed more interested in whatever was spoken, whether it was good journalism or mundpropaganda. It didn't matter.
I'm not a consultant to ZDF or anything, but maybe they might ask the Albanians about their methods and see if a new approach to mundpropaganda would be good idea.
It translates roughly into the English phrase of mouth propaganda.....meaning that verbally, some folks are disseminating a story that might be somewhat factual or correct, but fits more into a particular cause or agenda.
Germany has this interesting past with mundpropaganda. You see, when you go back to prior to mid 1400's...there wasn't much of a way to get information out to villages around Europe. Everyone depended on rumors, trader-stories, and traveler gossip to fill the imagination. You could have a small village of 200 Germans who have a dozen traders make their way through one summer, and every single detail of what they spoke about....whether true or false...became part of the beliefs of this village.
After the invention of the printing press....an odd thing happened. Newspapers arrived. To be honest, they didn't really start up until 1556...roughly a hundred years after the printing press was developed. The first one came out out of Venice, Italy. It was entitled "Written Notice" and simply was a logical way to convey news that had been heard and it was a fast and easy method to get everyone on the same level of understanding. Naturally, it cost some money. Capitalism was handcuffed to the idea in some fashion.
At that point, mundpropaganda was in a dying stage. Written propaganda would take off in various forms, and be part of European (and American history) for the next 350 years.
Then this odd thing would occur....radio and TV arrived. Mundpropaganda would make this comeback.
In the late 1920s....radio came to arrive in Europe and quickly became a big deal in Germany. The Nazi Party? They would figure out the great charm of mundpropaganda when attached to radio.
After WW II, TV was introduced, and it also became part of the mundpropaganda episode as well....throghout Germany, Europe, and the rest of the civilized world.
About twenty years ago....mundpropaganda started to falter and slip back a notch....mostly because of the internet, Facebook, Twitter, and digital innovation.
In the last couple of years, mundpropaganda proceeds on, but it's on a narrow slope. Young people aren't that hyped up on it, and prefer non-verbal propaganda tools to get their "dose". The mundpropaganda enthusiasts are working hard to pump up their "verbal-product" or hold back the non-verbal crowd. Fake news gets uttered now nightly on the German news, and accusations tend to be a regular piece of entertainment now.
I bring this up because I sat and watched ZDF 9:45PM news last night. The Mainz crew went topic number one....Donald Trump. I thought the NPD-Nazi Party decision by the German court was a bigger deal. The ZDF piece on Trump? It had this mundpropaganda-appeal, if you ask me.
Mundpropaganda depends a great deal on what you would call a "whispering campaign". This is where you suggest a group of things, which conveniently fit together and encourage the receiver of the info to think in the way of the presenter. This is where you tie a number of things together....which aren't really a news event...but simply comments or suggestions. In the middle of this....you throw five or six two-or-three liners in from contributing 'experts'. Distinguished so-and-so says this, and Distinguished so-and-so says that. In the end, you have a seven-minute piece of journalism, which doesn't really fit into one single product....but it served well to fit mundpropaganda.
The problem with mundpropaganda today? Generally, it doesn't matter if you look around the US or Germany....folks seem awful skeptical of mundpropaganda now. I can't say that they all got suddenly Einstein-smart, or just read the Cliff-notes on mundpropaganda....but it presents some problems and new trends.
If you have a growing crowd of skeptics who aren't buying into the mundpropaganda as they used to....where exactly do you go with this business? It was all a great scheme to proclaim fake news and bring folks along this trail. But if they seem to falter on fake news, and just not hype as much on mundpropaganda or start asking in-depth questions....well....there is not plan 'B' out there for this type of developing mess.
I noticed two years ago....out of Albania....that their broadcast folks had figured out that folks just weren't that hyped up anymore with their brand of journalism or mundpropaganda.....so they brought in some well-built gal to read the nightly news with a fairly open blouse. On the open blouse scale (one to ten)....after having seen a video of the news read....I'd give the Albanian gal a "9" out of a possible 10. For some reason, folks got back into the nightly news and seemed more interested in whatever was spoken, whether it was good journalism or mundpropaganda. It didn't matter.
I'm not a consultant to ZDF or anything, but maybe they might ask the Albanians about their methods and see if a new approach to mundpropaganda would be good idea.
The Call for 2,500 Folks
There are various European countries where I follow the news and happenings. This morning I came across this one business-related story for Iceland.
Most people don't realize that Iceland functions with roughly 340,000 people (total). Basically, it's the size of Corpus Christi, Texas.
A study was conducted in Iceland toward the end of 2016, and published in the past week or two. The topic? Well....they looked at retirements, tourism growth, industry momentum, and have come to this conclusion....they need a minimum of 2,500 to 4,000 new folks to come and live in Iceland....and to take up work (just sitting around or waiting isn't acceptable).
The Minister of Social Affairs noted in some speech or talk recently, that Iceland is becoming a "land of immigration". We aren't talking about thousands of folks sending in applications or asking to come into Iceland....just that there's a entry door and hundreds of applications are sent on a yearly basis now.
I've spent a week in Iceland this past year and have a pretty good idea of how things are situated. Frankly, if you laid out the Viking mentality, taxation, cold winters, Icelandic humor, vast nature of the landscape, the glaciers, the 23.5 hours of sunshine per summer day, the 23.5 hours of darkness per winter evening, and general social life....90-percent of folks would pack up and leave after twelve months. That's my humble opinion.
Me? I'd actually be charmed by the country, the Viking mentality, rugged territory, and the humor. I will admit the 23.5 hours of sunshine a day would mess me up, and growing nature of tourism might be a negative.
How to talk 2,500 new folks into coming to Iceland....rather quickly? I'd suggest some humble Icelandic folks as HR folks and drill down into the three key selling points. First, you don't really ever need to worry about crime. There aren't any Icelandic thugs hanging around Reykjavik or Grindavik....or meth dealers hanging around the N1 gas station in Grindavik. Second, folks are awful nice, humble and smiley-faced in Iceland....to the point that you might think they are doped up on something or have consumed a fair amount of alcohol. Third, stress and chaos are things that haven't been introduced into Iceland yet. Oh, there's snow to shovel, and potholes which need to be repaired....but the stress you might find in Berlin or Nashville....just doesn't exist.
What the trend on these jobs for the 2,500 might be? Well....bluntly.....tourism. They need bus-drivers, tour guides, and fun-people (folks to operate quad-bike rental operations, do glacier hiker operations, etc). To be kinda honest, you don't need a big craftsman certificate, or university degree.....you just need to be honest, friendly, pro-tourist, and maybe able to fake folks out thinking that you've lived in Iceland all your life.
No one says much about training for these jobs. I'd take a guess that they have a list of the 100 typical questions that tourists ask (typically American)....like does the sun ever go down in July? Or, does the wind always blow like this?
Will they find the 2,500 to 4,000 folks? It's hard to say. I'd question how housing will be handled and they are on some housing agenda project for the newcomers. I'd also question the language program and how quickly you can get folks hyped on a thousand words of Icelandic, and the adjustment to the 23.5 hours of sunshine per day in July.
If I were consulting with Iceland on this matter....I'd suggest they need to look for people who are up for a challenge and looking for a bit of adventure. It'd be like recruiting for US Marines....I'd be looking for a few good people who want to go off to the ends of the Earth, drink beer with viking legends or almost-legends, and do some tourism-related stuff for some crazy people. This wouldn't be some wussy-job or a place to kick back and just mow grass. You'd be on the cutting edge of rebirth of the Viking age....joining with the greatest team that ever swung a sword, or held a beer.
Most people don't realize that Iceland functions with roughly 340,000 people (total). Basically, it's the size of Corpus Christi, Texas.
A study was conducted in Iceland toward the end of 2016, and published in the past week or two. The topic? Well....they looked at retirements, tourism growth, industry momentum, and have come to this conclusion....they need a minimum of 2,500 to 4,000 new folks to come and live in Iceland....and to take up work (just sitting around or waiting isn't acceptable).
The Minister of Social Affairs noted in some speech or talk recently, that Iceland is becoming a "land of immigration". We aren't talking about thousands of folks sending in applications or asking to come into Iceland....just that there's a entry door and hundreds of applications are sent on a yearly basis now.
I've spent a week in Iceland this past year and have a pretty good idea of how things are situated. Frankly, if you laid out the Viking mentality, taxation, cold winters, Icelandic humor, vast nature of the landscape, the glaciers, the 23.5 hours of sunshine per summer day, the 23.5 hours of darkness per winter evening, and general social life....90-percent of folks would pack up and leave after twelve months. That's my humble opinion.
Me? I'd actually be charmed by the country, the Viking mentality, rugged territory, and the humor. I will admit the 23.5 hours of sunshine a day would mess me up, and growing nature of tourism might be a negative.
How to talk 2,500 new folks into coming to Iceland....rather quickly? I'd suggest some humble Icelandic folks as HR folks and drill down into the three key selling points. First, you don't really ever need to worry about crime. There aren't any Icelandic thugs hanging around Reykjavik or Grindavik....or meth dealers hanging around the N1 gas station in Grindavik. Second, folks are awful nice, humble and smiley-faced in Iceland....to the point that you might think they are doped up on something or have consumed a fair amount of alcohol. Third, stress and chaos are things that haven't been introduced into Iceland yet. Oh, there's snow to shovel, and potholes which need to be repaired....but the stress you might find in Berlin or Nashville....just doesn't exist.
What the trend on these jobs for the 2,500 might be? Well....bluntly.....tourism. They need bus-drivers, tour guides, and fun-people (folks to operate quad-bike rental operations, do glacier hiker operations, etc). To be kinda honest, you don't need a big craftsman certificate, or university degree.....you just need to be honest, friendly, pro-tourist, and maybe able to fake folks out thinking that you've lived in Iceland all your life.
No one says much about training for these jobs. I'd take a guess that they have a list of the 100 typical questions that tourists ask (typically American)....like does the sun ever go down in July? Or, does the wind always blow like this?
Will they find the 2,500 to 4,000 folks? It's hard to say. I'd question how housing will be handled and they are on some housing agenda project for the newcomers. I'd also question the language program and how quickly you can get folks hyped on a thousand words of Icelandic, and the adjustment to the 23.5 hours of sunshine per day in July.
If I were consulting with Iceland on this matter....I'd suggest they need to look for people who are up for a challenge and looking for a bit of adventure. It'd be like recruiting for US Marines....I'd be looking for a few good people who want to go off to the ends of the Earth, drink beer with viking legends or almost-legends, and do some tourism-related stuff for some crazy people. This wouldn't be some wussy-job or a place to kick back and just mow grass. You'd be on the cutting edge of rebirth of the Viking age....joining with the greatest team that ever swung a sword, or held a beer.
Rotkappchen
I sat today in a German class and we read the original Red Riding Hood piece written piece by the Brothers Grimm....in German. The original story was told from mouth to mouth, over a couple hundred years....until the Brothers Grimm sat down and ironed out a version of the story in their own vision. The origin of the story is believed to have come from France in the 1600s. Charles Perrault wrote his piece around 1697. The Grimms wrote theirs in 1812.
After reading the piece in class...I came to realize that there are two noted differences between the normal version I might have heard as a kid, and the version of 1812.
First, Rotkappchen (Red Riding Hood), was given cake and a bottle of wine in the German version. The 'basket' was the English switch to this....probably to lessen the suggestion that Grandma was a heavy drinker or sipping too much booze.
Second, it is pretty blunt in terms of violence conducted with Robkappchen, Grandma, the Wolf and the Hunter. The English version.....less so.
You have to put things into a prospective with the Brothers Grimm. They were editing a long told story for a book that would be in the majority of homes within a decade or two after being printed. This was pure entertainment and likely told a thousand times in someone's life. No TV, no radio, no newspapers, and no internet.
With the art of story-telling, you need a bit of suspense and a suggestion of horror out in the woods, and the Grimms achieved that.
After reading the piece in class...I came to realize that there are two noted differences between the normal version I might have heard as a kid, and the version of 1812.
First, Rotkappchen (Red Riding Hood), was given cake and a bottle of wine in the German version. The 'basket' was the English switch to this....probably to lessen the suggestion that Grandma was a heavy drinker or sipping too much booze.
Second, it is pretty blunt in terms of violence conducted with Robkappchen, Grandma, the Wolf and the Hunter. The English version.....less so.
You have to put things into a prospective with the Brothers Grimm. They were editing a long told story for a book that would be in the majority of homes within a decade or two after being printed. This was pure entertainment and likely told a thousand times in someone's life. No TV, no radio, no newspapers, and no internet.
With the art of story-telling, you need a bit of suspense and a suggestion of horror out in the woods, and the Grimms achieved that.
Tuesday, January 17, 2017
Why Merkel Remains in Positive Numbers
One of the mysteries that most Americans fail to grasp about Germany, and the immigration issues....is the lofty status of Chancellor Merkel, and how public criticism remains at low-throttle. So I'll lay out the four basic reasons.
1. No scandals. You can go to various past Chancellors and find political or personal scandals brewing. With Merkel, none. Ethics wise, she pretty much maxes out. She's aware of that and is kinda proud that her path is fairly clear. You can go back thirty years, and find virtually nothing to write some scandal piece upon. She might sip an occasional wine or beer. She has a particular list of hobbies or passions....none really drawing any attention. Most of her public statements are carefully crafted. In the simplest of words.....she's the professor-type but along the lines of a fairly boring professor with a clear path.
2. She doesn't insult anyone. You see a lot of US and Brit political figures who openly insult opposition leaders and occasionally members of their own political parties. She's fairly careful about insults. You can't find even a harsh word commented on Putin. On public speeches, she might utter some disappointments about people....but it never fits into the insult department.
3. If you dumped Merkel, then who? This is one of the great problems of the German political system. You can go through the whole next ten folks of the CDU Party (her party) and find that none will get public attention or draw massive appeal throughout the public. I'm betting various polling instruments have been done by the party and readily prove that fact....hence the reason why she runs yet again. From the opposition parties? The SPD has a list of three possible people who will be the ultimate candidate for them....but none of the three push their numbers up by more than one or two percent. The Greens have four characters in the running....same issue. Linke Party....same issue. It is a one-horse leadership situation, and the public has no problem with that.
4. The general news media....from state-run/public-TV, to the commercial TV side....and onto print media....have either led with neutral stories or positive stories of the Merkel period. Some print-media sources have done criticism pieces of the immigration business...but never really connecting Merkel to the blame side of this. I would agree...the pro-immigration tone set by state-run/public-TV has soften over the past two years....but no one does a blame-game situation (like you'd see in the US).
At present, I'd expect the election to conclude in late September with the CDU/CSU combination getting a minimum of 30-percent (maybe even 36-percent as it stands today), and things continue on. It would take a shocker to see any public shift and result in lesser numbers. The second place crowd? Presently the SPD, with 20-percent.
1. No scandals. You can go to various past Chancellors and find political or personal scandals brewing. With Merkel, none. Ethics wise, she pretty much maxes out. She's aware of that and is kinda proud that her path is fairly clear. You can go back thirty years, and find virtually nothing to write some scandal piece upon. She might sip an occasional wine or beer. She has a particular list of hobbies or passions....none really drawing any attention. Most of her public statements are carefully crafted. In the simplest of words.....she's the professor-type but along the lines of a fairly boring professor with a clear path.
2. She doesn't insult anyone. You see a lot of US and Brit political figures who openly insult opposition leaders and occasionally members of their own political parties. She's fairly careful about insults. You can't find even a harsh word commented on Putin. On public speeches, she might utter some disappointments about people....but it never fits into the insult department.
3. If you dumped Merkel, then who? This is one of the great problems of the German political system. You can go through the whole next ten folks of the CDU Party (her party) and find that none will get public attention or draw massive appeal throughout the public. I'm betting various polling instruments have been done by the party and readily prove that fact....hence the reason why she runs yet again. From the opposition parties? The SPD has a list of three possible people who will be the ultimate candidate for them....but none of the three push their numbers up by more than one or two percent. The Greens have four characters in the running....same issue. Linke Party....same issue. It is a one-horse leadership situation, and the public has no problem with that.
4. The general news media....from state-run/public-TV, to the commercial TV side....and onto print media....have either led with neutral stories or positive stories of the Merkel period. Some print-media sources have done criticism pieces of the immigration business...but never really connecting Merkel to the blame side of this. I would agree...the pro-immigration tone set by state-run/public-TV has soften over the past two years....but no one does a blame-game situation (like you'd see in the US).
At present, I'd expect the election to conclude in late September with the CDU/CSU combination getting a minimum of 30-percent (maybe even 36-percent as it stands today), and things continue on. It would take a shocker to see any public shift and result in lesser numbers. The second place crowd? Presently the SPD, with 20-percent.
Review of CNN Op-Ed
CNN put up a piece (an editorial) by Robert Verkaik....entitled "How Germany's Open-Door Policy Refugee Policy Helps to Fight Terrorism".
I sat and read through the piece twice.
It's not a news piece or one endorsed in anyway by CNN....it's simply an opinion piece over Germany, Merkel, the immigration strategy in place since 2013, and where Verkaiki thinks this is going.
The trail that Verkaiki discusses is this one where Germans will be able to influence and change the minds of those immigrating into Germany. He does point at success stories within German intelligence and how the cops have stayed one-step ahead in most (not all) cases. I do agree, it is a remarkable run of luck to have stopped as many terror acts as they have.
Verkaiki also discusses these recent Merkel changes (the burqa ban idea, and more stringent handling of violent gentlemen)....that these will lessen the trust of the Muslim community in Merkel.
The point of the editorial? Trump needs to stay out of Germany's immigration problem talk.
Over the past four years, I've sat and watched the migration 'opera' unfold, and numerous stumbles by the Berlin leadership crowd. I've watched journalists and intellectuals try to defend remarkable stupidity, and then chastise regular citizens for anxiety and spiraling distrust. Every news item that comes up....has to be reviewed for accuracy and fact, because there's so much slant and fabrication built into pro-immigration and anti-immigration stories.
There are three basic issues or problems with the CNN's op-ed by Verkaik.
1. To suggest that ALL of the immigrants since 2013 in this great migration to Germany are Muslim is not factual. The immigration problem is not a Muslim-only episode....nor are the problems seen by the German public Muslim-only generated. One can simply look at the Koln New Year's Eve episode of 31 December 2015, and note immature and crude behavior demonstrated by a bunch of thugs. The German perception....at least by the working class...is that it's not safe anymore in various urban areas, and that no-go areas have been created (something that journalists and politicians work day and night in Germany to advertise as not so).
2. This strategy here, designed by Merkel and associates, might eventually have some success. But we aren't talking about in this next decade. It could take twenty years before you really start to see success with the next generation of teens growing up in this atmosphere. How much patience will people have to wait for this ten to twenty year period to pass, and this great experiment proven successful? There's already fallout here in 2017, and if Merkel and the CDU/SPD 'team' does win in the fall.....they have only four years to prove their shift helped to work. If it's a failure and more anxiety comes out of this period.....you can absolutely expect a right-wing government to arise in 2021 to face the perceived threat.
3. There's a strong argument for immigration to exist in Germany. Industry and business folks will advocate it. But on the other hand, you don't need 300,000 new burger-flippers to arrive....having little to no craftsmanship or university degree in hand, and expect the Germans to pay for three years of training, housing, and social welfare before they are capable of working. Even after three years, you can't be sure the guy won't up and leave....going back to his homeland, and the 150,000 Euro wasted on this guy was blown. There needs to be some door existing, control of the door, and some judgement exercised to limit waste and time. A lot of these individuals came to Germany with no clear idea of anything, other than thinking it was going to be better in Germany and they'd all be living great lives. Six months of refugee living, moving into some ghetto-area of Frankfurt, and realization that half of what you make on income is taxed or gone because of Germany's social system....leaves some wondering about this great vision they had.
Back in 2015, there were a lot of journalists and intellectuals in Germany, along politicians....defending the Merkel strategy on immigration and migration. That public attention for the most part has disappeared. If you watch the same news....the same journalists....today, it's a bit different. They were like Verkaik in that period, and defending the whole thing. Today....much less so. Public sentiment today goes against easy acceptance of journalists. More than sixty percent of Germans question the news media (even the state-run/public TV crowd), with that statistic coming out in the spring of 2016....suggesting sentiment had shifted.
Maybe there are still some journalists around....within the US....who will fall on the spear to defend the Chancellor and the strategy.
I recommend reading the CNN Op-Ed....only to get an idea of the other side of this story. For me, it's like some epic Lawrence of Arabia-like story, where good intentions didn't really achieve a great ending.
I sat and read through the piece twice.
It's not a news piece or one endorsed in anyway by CNN....it's simply an opinion piece over Germany, Merkel, the immigration strategy in place since 2013, and where Verkaiki thinks this is going.
The trail that Verkaiki discusses is this one where Germans will be able to influence and change the minds of those immigrating into Germany. He does point at success stories within German intelligence and how the cops have stayed one-step ahead in most (not all) cases. I do agree, it is a remarkable run of luck to have stopped as many terror acts as they have.
Verkaiki also discusses these recent Merkel changes (the burqa ban idea, and more stringent handling of violent gentlemen)....that these will lessen the trust of the Muslim community in Merkel.
The point of the editorial? Trump needs to stay out of Germany's immigration problem talk.
Over the past four years, I've sat and watched the migration 'opera' unfold, and numerous stumbles by the Berlin leadership crowd. I've watched journalists and intellectuals try to defend remarkable stupidity, and then chastise regular citizens for anxiety and spiraling distrust. Every news item that comes up....has to be reviewed for accuracy and fact, because there's so much slant and fabrication built into pro-immigration and anti-immigration stories.
There are three basic issues or problems with the CNN's op-ed by Verkaik.
1. To suggest that ALL of the immigrants since 2013 in this great migration to Germany are Muslim is not factual. The immigration problem is not a Muslim-only episode....nor are the problems seen by the German public Muslim-only generated. One can simply look at the Koln New Year's Eve episode of 31 December 2015, and note immature and crude behavior demonstrated by a bunch of thugs. The German perception....at least by the working class...is that it's not safe anymore in various urban areas, and that no-go areas have been created (something that journalists and politicians work day and night in Germany to advertise as not so).
2. This strategy here, designed by Merkel and associates, might eventually have some success. But we aren't talking about in this next decade. It could take twenty years before you really start to see success with the next generation of teens growing up in this atmosphere. How much patience will people have to wait for this ten to twenty year period to pass, and this great experiment proven successful? There's already fallout here in 2017, and if Merkel and the CDU/SPD 'team' does win in the fall.....they have only four years to prove their shift helped to work. If it's a failure and more anxiety comes out of this period.....you can absolutely expect a right-wing government to arise in 2021 to face the perceived threat.
3. There's a strong argument for immigration to exist in Germany. Industry and business folks will advocate it. But on the other hand, you don't need 300,000 new burger-flippers to arrive....having little to no craftsmanship or university degree in hand, and expect the Germans to pay for three years of training, housing, and social welfare before they are capable of working. Even after three years, you can't be sure the guy won't up and leave....going back to his homeland, and the 150,000 Euro wasted on this guy was blown. There needs to be some door existing, control of the door, and some judgement exercised to limit waste and time. A lot of these individuals came to Germany with no clear idea of anything, other than thinking it was going to be better in Germany and they'd all be living great lives. Six months of refugee living, moving into some ghetto-area of Frankfurt, and realization that half of what you make on income is taxed or gone because of Germany's social system....leaves some wondering about this great vision they had.
Back in 2015, there were a lot of journalists and intellectuals in Germany, along politicians....defending the Merkel strategy on immigration and migration. That public attention for the most part has disappeared. If you watch the same news....the same journalists....today, it's a bit different. They were like Verkaik in that period, and defending the whole thing. Today....much less so. Public sentiment today goes against easy acceptance of journalists. More than sixty percent of Germans question the news media (even the state-run/public TV crowd), with that statistic coming out in the spring of 2016....suggesting sentiment had shifted.
Maybe there are still some journalists around....within the US....who will fall on the spear to defend the Chancellor and the strategy.
I recommend reading the CNN Op-Ed....only to get an idea of the other side of this story. For me, it's like some epic Lawrence of Arabia-like story, where good intentions didn't really achieve a great ending.
Wiesbaden Story
Four times a week, I head down into Wiesbaden to the old Lindsey Air Station area....which is today a flourishing neighborhood, and has the city's VHS (school) there. Across the street from the VHS...is one of the five or six police stations in town.
Since October, I've come to note now....weekly....at least one car parked between the VHS and the police station....around 8:30AM, with some window broke out.
Yesterday's episode was a station wagon...business vehicle for some local electrical shop. Cop was standing there with the car-owner....taking a picture and writing out a brief report. My guess is that over the weekend, the car got broken into and the tool bags stolen from the back of the car.
They avoid statistics like this in the local press, but I would take a guess that robberies like this are a fairly regular routine now. In a town of 280,000.....you have a lot of characters just looking for a quick and easy crime.
The thing is....you can figure some tool bags with electrical items....maybe having a value of 3,000 Euro minimum. The thief? I doubt if he gets more than 400 Euro after he goes to his property guy. The property guy? He'll look around and parcel this out....maybe getting 700 to 800 Euro for 'used' tools. The guy with the broke window? His insurance will likely cover this but demand a lot of paperwork to prove the tools lost and value. In man-hours, he'll have to dig up paperwork, and that's probably six to eight hours of work to get the value assessed, and paperwork accomplished.
You just look at this and shake your head.
Since October, I've come to note now....weekly....at least one car parked between the VHS and the police station....around 8:30AM, with some window broke out.
Yesterday's episode was a station wagon...business vehicle for some local electrical shop. Cop was standing there with the car-owner....taking a picture and writing out a brief report. My guess is that over the weekend, the car got broken into and the tool bags stolen from the back of the car.
They avoid statistics like this in the local press, but I would take a guess that robberies like this are a fairly regular routine now. In a town of 280,000.....you have a lot of characters just looking for a quick and easy crime.
The thing is....you can figure some tool bags with electrical items....maybe having a value of 3,000 Euro minimum. The thief? I doubt if he gets more than 400 Euro after he goes to his property guy. The property guy? He'll look around and parcel this out....maybe getting 700 to 800 Euro for 'used' tools. The guy with the broke window? His insurance will likely cover this but demand a lot of paperwork to prove the tools lost and value. In man-hours, he'll have to dig up paperwork, and that's probably six to eight hours of work to get the value assessed, and paperwork accomplished.
You just look at this and shake your head.
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