7 May 2025: German News Stories

 1. Chancellor vote drama done.

On the second vote of 6 May....Merz got 325 votes (still not all of the 328 that the CDU/CSU and SPD have).

Someone made a suggestion....that maybe Green Party folks  crossed the line and voted to give Merz votes....to avoid failing the 3rd vote and triggering a national vote.   No facts to support this.  Obviously....some from the SPD and CDU/CSU....aren't that happy with Merz.

INSA (polling/survey folks) did a poll after the 2nd vote (for BILD).  57-percent of Germans say this was a pretty bad situation and Merz is 'permanently' damaged.  In a 2nd question....who benefits...51-percent said AfD got the big benefit (not a good sign).

2.  The union 'boss' of Germany civil service union gave a warning.....if the gov't starts cutting AfD Party members from gov't jobs....there would be a serious mess to clean up.

3.  BMW admits profits for first quarter are down.

Russian Natural Gas Chatter

 For 2024, EU countries imported approximately 54.45 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas from Russia (Bruegel data).

This is 21-percent more, than in 2023.

So it's just odd to me....a statement by the EU yesterday said....by 2027....EU countries would buy ZERO Russian natural gas (new EU policy).

Odds of keeping the promise? I'd give it less than 10-percent of occurring.

Is the EU aware of current consumption?  I doubt it.

Would EU members openly deceive the EU of the current purchase situation?  

Theatrical Show Wrapped Up: Merz Wiins

 Count: 325 votes for Merz....nine more than necessary.

Where the 15 'new' votes came  from? Unknown.  Who knows....maybe 15 Green Party folks or AfD Party folks stepped over and voted for him.  Or maybe these 'lost' SPD/CDU voters woke up.

So we have a new Chancellor.

If you asked me will this crew be around for four years?  I'm doubting that, and  in my mind....there's a potential fallen-coalition within 2 to 3 years.  

Most Germans would say that we really didn't need a whole new national election....to resolve matters.

3:15 PM Next Vote

 Bundestag starts 2nd Chancellor vote at 3:15 PM.

Votes counted by 4:15 PM.

If that fails with 316 votes?  A 3rd attempt will occur....requiring only a simple majority (1 vote more than those against).

3rd vote today?  No....this would likely go to tomorrow.

Explaining This German Chaos

 Well...since 10 AM today....it's been like a train-wreck, and the failure to nominate Merz as Chancellor....is now a massive topic.

The way the system works....after an election....the winner-party is given a period of time (usually 4-to-8 weeks) to work a coalition deal...totaling 50-plus percent, and having a list of officers/ministers...and the Chancellor-seat to be the winner-party 'boss'.

Nothing is final until the coalition document is done, presented,  and then a vote occurs.  Merz in this case needs 316 vote, out of 328.  Well...he got 310.  Six short, but from the combined 328 SPD and CDU-CSU votes....18 folks didn't cooperate.

The system allows for a second vote, but generally recommends a 2-week cooling-off point.

Merz furious? OH YEAH.  

Who voted against him?  Unknown.   Scholz (still Chancellor) could have voted against him....as could any number of CDU folks.  Far left members of the SPD?  Yeah....same story.

CDU-CSU voters thrilled with the coalition agreement?  No....I'd say somewhere around 30-percent believe that it's mostly a left-of-center situation (not what they voted for).

Merz said to some degree....he wants another vote 'shortly'....meaning today.  Some report indicates the papers are prepared and by 6 PM....the second vote will occur.

If that fails?  A 3rd vote could occur tomorrow....requiring only a simple majority.  Most assume if the 310 situation holds....then he passes.  If some folks drift away and he fails the simple majority?  Then the President would give the public a 2nd vote.

A second public vote timeframe?  Well....you'd have to figure at least 2.5 months...so around mid-July.  The old gov't (Scholz coalition) still in charge?  Yes.

Would Merz run for the CDU  in the new election (July)?  I would suggest no.  The party would meet here within 10 days....form up three to four top candidates, and pick a new Chancellor candidate.  

Same story for SPD?  Yeah.

A mess remaining for the Minister of Interior (Faeser)?  Yeah, she's stuck holding the report....suggesting that the AfD Party be banned.  She needs to present it to the Bundestag and take 'some' type of action.

If banned before the election?  Where do  the 25-percent of public support go?  And could this get BSW (they failed to get to 5-percent of the vote....so no seats currently (they got around 4.8-percent).

The wildest scenario is that we go to a new public vote....BSW gets the banned AfD voter support, and you sit there in July....unable to form a gov't coalition.

Tonight being a hectic night for journalists in Germany?  Between Channel 1/2....probably four hours of chatter on this mess.

Merz Failing On The Vote?

 Merz fails in first round of chancellor election (10 AM).  

Yeah, weird deal.  Coalition agreement done...delivered.  All the CDU-CSU and SPD had to do....deliver all their member votes, and Merz was in.

Around 9:30, voting stopped, and 20 minutes of counting took place.

He needed 316 votes.   He got 310 votes.  If you count SPD and CDU-CSU votes possible....there's potentially 328.  So 18 folks didn't vote for him.  

What the book says for rules?  A second vote could be absolutely held in two weeks....with a possible rule sitting there.....suggesting a 2nd vote even today is possible.

Going to a 3rd vote?  The regulation says it's possible but you only require a simple majority to 'win'.

How peeved is Merz?  OH....on the high side.  Was it SPD votes that failed, or CDU-CSU?  Unknown.  There probably are a dozen CDU folks highly negative about Merz.

Yeah, it's pretty interesting thing to watch.  And yes, Scholz is still Chancellor.  

Sachsenhausen

 If you were stationed around Frankfurt in the 1970s/1980s....you probably have a memory of the Frankfurt neighborhood on the southside of the river.

The pub/party-district stretched basically about 1-km by half-a-km.  Up through the 1990s....I would define the district as 'safe'.  Today?  Most people would say that  that decline sat in...around 2010, and it's got to be a tidy-problem, a drunken-brawl problem, and the 'charm-factor' has declined.

So in local news....the cops say now...that they are going to be doing 'walks'.  If you were prone to public urination....you will be ID'ed and given a court-appearance. 

An alcohol ban?  Well....yeah, that's openly discussed now as a possibility.  So the bars might be open, but all you'd be able to buy/consume...would be sodas, coffee and water.

It's an amazing transformation...in  a negative way.

6 May 2025: German News Stories

 1.  It broke yesterday on the AfD 'affair'.....that this critical report by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution....saying AfD is 'extremist'.....was received by the Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (SPD) in November of 2024, and she has done nothing with it for about six months.

Yeah, this is going to be a massive problem to clean up.  First, she claims that she hasn't really read it. Then they go into an election period.....knowing what the report says.  Then you have the issue....did they brief the Chancellor or Merz?  

Legal trouble?  Well....BSW (the party) will say that they had a chance to get  seats in the Bundestag, and this was 'rigged' in some way.  I could see the court asking Faeser questions and getting peeved over the answers.

Faeser getting fired?   No....the new coalition arrives today.  If I were her....I'd find a exit and leave the country for a year.

2. There's a show on RTL that I occasionally watch...."Hartz und Herzlich".  Mostly about out-of-luck Germans.

So from the latest....there's this transman who is unable to get a job, and gets state-funding/welfare.  For whatever reason.....it doesn't seem like any German company is interested in hiring him.

3. New Chancellor as of today, with new coalition.

4.  WELT piece this AM:  study by DAK, there appears to be more aggression in German's everyday life, with a fear building up over lessening for social cohesion.

5.  Frauke Petry.  You might remember the name.....she was the second party boss of the AfD Party, and around 18 months into her period....she was fired by the membership. 

So Petry has come up and said....she's creating a new political party....to be launched in 2026.

Name of the party?  Not spoken yet.  

Key quote by her: "The gap in the party system isn't between the CDU and the AfD, but rather the void of an anti-statist, liberal offering." 

From commentary, I would suggest two things to be in this new party....first, she intends to make less gov't spending (thus less taxes) a key feature. Second, she utters the comment of enforcing  'freedom of expression' a good bit.

Running in the Baden-Württemberg state election in 2026?  Yeah.

If they ban AfD....this would fill the void.  I noted that she didn't say a word about migration.