Around seven years ago, I started to ponder this. It's not a simple suggestion.
Presently? If you count nationally.....between the CDU-CSU and AfD....they probably have around 60-percent of votes. Of the sixteen states.....in some...they might have around 35-percent. I'd say from about eight states....it's closer to 60-to-65 percent.
The Merkel 'rule' not to hand-shake 'hands' with the 'far-right-extreme-right'? Generally, she pressed hard that you as a CDU-CSU member....could never build partnerships with the AfD.
Some of this 'design' was a Merkel effort to build the CDU after Kohl....into a center-center political organization....NOT a right-of-center organization. Some of this helped to persuade SPD-voters who were leaning slight toward the 'center'....to find voting trends/patterns with the CDU (rather than the SPD).
This way of thinking stuck around....from 2013 when migration started up and continuing up even to today.
The personal pick of Merkel to replace her? Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (AKK)....had this thought process and leaned the same way. The Merkel-path for AKK? It lasted about 18 months, then dissolved. Fair number of CDU executive members....weren't that supportive of Merkel hand-picking AKK.
The 2nd 'pick'? Armin Laschet, Premier-President of NRW.....goofed around and lost the 2021 election....bringing the Merkel ownership of the party to an end.
Olaf Scholz (the SPD Chancellor, up to 2025), and Merz? They both kept the migration path in place from the Merkel era.
Yeah....they both talked about fixing the migration problem, or limiting entry, or adding more police powers/manpower.
Why AfD's 'vision' can't find CDU support?
I put this into four categories.
First, in individual states....there's probably 30 to 50 percent of CDU/CSU voters that would like to hear the coalition talks between the two. The national leadership has to 'correct' this behavior on occasion.
Second, there's this perception of Nazi-crap. Oddly, if you lined up the top ten players of the AfD....at least two of them use 1930s era quotes, and run campaigns that seem slightly hyped-up over past Nazi promises. The bulk of CDU voters have a bitter 'taste' of this era and don't want to partner because of that.
Third, as much as AfD promises to deport 'problem-migrants' (there's upwards to 250,000 presently on a national deport-list (either because of failed asylum applications, crime, bad-boy behavior, etc). How this AfD deport effort would be fixed/resolved over the present program? Unknown.
Several countries on this bulk deport list...don't want the bad-boys back. AfD can't answer how this would be fixed. Some suggest just dumping them into Africa (after you pay them some bribe to accept them).
Some CDU-voters see a coalition effort as questionable because you can't clearly present a solution.
Fourth, and final....because of a crappy birth-rate....there's a national shortage of workers. So the CDU-CSU (and SPD) folks....see a need to have migration. Presently, the gov't says around 300,000-plus migrants with 'green-cards' are employed for retirement-homes, clinics, and hospitals.
I can walk around Mainz and Wiesbaden....noting a couple of thousand non-Germans hired and paying taxes while working. If I were on a humble guess....75-percent of migrants are fitting in and part of the German economy. I went to the drink-shop yesterday....both the clerk and stock-guy....were migrants. Couple of months ago...I stopped at a Burger King regionally....noting seven Sri Lankan ladies...manning the entire flipper-force.
An odd part of this discussion? I noted about a year ago in some German state election....the news crew had analyzed new incoming voter trends for the AfD. There were x-number from the Greens, SPD, CDU and even Linke Party. They weren't clear conservative types....they were just fed-up over crime, the lack of deportation, and the appearance of no one in charge of resolving bad-boy migrant issues. They'd like to fire someone, or some party....but can't seem to ID such a person or group.
Where things are going?
At some point....the economic stumbling will reach a stage where blame will be dished out, and neither the SPD or CDU-CSU folks can present themselves. The AfD? Well....if they were smart and grasped the evolving mess....they'd evolve their migration 'promise', and get into a Trump-like state of mind....fixing the economy, and stabilizing jobs. The key here? You need the Ukraine-war ended....Russian natural gas to be turned-on, and the energy costs to be cut drastically.
There is no simple fix, and the AfD is not the perfect coalition-partner to 'dance' with....but so far (up to the fall of 2026)....this 'dance-contest' and music has been a two-string banjo experience.
