I was reading through a summary this AM....between 2009 and 2024 (15 years)....throughout Europe....around 30 different refineries shut-down. Various reasons given....some probably could have upgraded but country laws made it unwise or of zero profit sense.
So....in the last year or two....you add up the Iran-US 'war'....then the Ukraine-Russia war.....and the China sudden policy not to export diesel fuel...yes, there is a crisis about to go from a '1' to a '7' (my index), and trucking deliveries probably will be a EU problem over the next ninety days.
The US or Venezuela coming to the rescue? Well....President Trump has said to France/Germany....open the diesel reserves that they have.
Iran itself in a marginal production phase? That's the side-story....where trucks, buses and farm equipment will be sitting there...unable to move because of limited fuel issues.