Are There Three Factions Of Iranian Leadership?

If it hasn't been made clear.....lacking legit political parties.....Iran is basically run by three groups.

Hardline crew.....Islamic Republic....the absolute and consumed conservatives. (osulgarayan).  

This group wants strict ideological loyalty to velayat-e faqih (guardianship of the jurist).  Yes, they are anti-West, and their power leans toward the Supreme Leader, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). 

Then there's the reformists and moderates (the eslahtalaban).  This group wants civil liberties, economic changes, stable currency, survival of the banking structure, and mostly a moderate relationship with the west.  

Most of the general public wants this group to 'win'.

Finally....the third group....the Supreme Leader and his Mullah-crew.  If you haven't understood this....this group plays off both group number one and number two.

The Mullahs and hardline folks....having no understanding of the oil business, it's relationship to the economy?  Well....that's about 99-percent of the current crisis.

Four Humble Thoughts

 1.  From Hungary....Orban (on his way out) and Magyar (on his way in)....had connections between the two for almost two decades. They were never 'enemies'.

If you ask me....based on commentary by Magyar....the election almost seems like a rigged-up deal where you simply exchanged red-pill-one with red-pill-two...getting the same result,  but feeling good that some pro-EU guy is there.  Three months down the line....you (the Hungarian-voter) will wake up from this dream, and realize Magyar is very much identical to Orban (except 70 pounds lighter).

2. The beginning of the end for the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition?  It'll be the day that a survey is done and reveals that half of German society wants the Scholz coalition back (SPD-Green-FDP).

3.  I suspect if you sat down with most Germans and asked them to rank the tempo-limit (bringing the autobahn speed down to 120/130 kph), and among problems to 'FIX'....it won't be even in the top 700 issues.  Potholes....might even rank above tempo limit.

4.  Sometimes....late at night....I'm channel-flipping for German TV options, and  Frau W's show is on.

Basically, she's a fortune-teller....with cards, and Germans call in....asking if they should do something really 'stupid'.  Live-show....you (the caller) are paying something like 99-cents (per minute), and she lays out these cards to tell you the best option to take.

I'll typically watch for ten minutes....thinking 'Ingrid' (the caller) ought to dump the boyfriend, or trade in the 'junker', or tell-off the boss, or just seek better advice.

Lately, I've had this feeling that Chancellor Merz should call, and seek advice.

Faking It

I sat and read through a BBC piece of investigative journalism.   So....they were told....there's some Brit lawyers....helping migrants building a case to stay in the UK...by pretending to be gay.

I get the feeling that they thought....this was mostly made-up.  But in the end....as they talked to the migrants....yeah, it was a true statement...legal advisers come in....lay out the 'rules' of being gay, and migrant acts in this way.

Last year...there was a incident in Germany....where the Auslander-office (folks that handle migrants in Germany)....asked about the amount of 'gayness' that the guy had (nationality was not given), and the migrant got all hyped-up/angry about the suggestion that he was gay.

How many fake gays exist in the UK?  Unknown.  I doubt if anyone really wants to collect or analyze such data.

Bad ethical decision by the lawyers? Well.....they just want the applicant to get a visa....they don't care how it occurs.

The odd part?  Well....some Brit gay guy sat down and probably wrote the text and  behavior  thing....how to fake the gayness.  Maybe he didn't really grasp how far this would  go.

Is There A Pending Fuel Problem For Germany?

 I spent an hour yesterday reading over this suggestion.

First, there's roughly a 90-day reserve sitting there...yet to be turned  on.

Second, there are several oil freighters heading toward Germany....figure their arrival in three weeks. Once they dock....unless things rapidly change in the  Gulf region....there's a brewing problem (you can assess it to develop around the end of September).

But on the positive side?  Well...new oil-tanker traffic is heading toward Venezuela and the US Gulf region. 

The idea of expanding bio fuels (E10) to maybe E20?  I've seen that idea pitched.

So I'm not really believing there's much of a shortage of fuel for Germany.  Now....if the stress-folks at the SPD-Green agenda can make you believe in a shortage....getting you hyped-up to buy a E-car....well....that's different.

15 Apr 2026: Germany: 10 Things

 1.  RTL poll: AfD at 26-percent.  CDU-CSU falls 2 points to 24 percent.

Linke at 11-percent.  Greens at 15-percent.  SPD at 12-percent.  FDP lingering at 4-percent.

FDP leadership change?  There's talk,  and a new guy likely to be into position.  My guess....it'll be enough to bring  FDP by the end of 2026....up to 7-percent,  but the votes are going to come from the CDU-CSU landscape.

2.  INSA did a poll on 'trust'....with the public asked about the Chancellor (Merz)....he rates near 20-percent.

3.  In case you were wondering....that 'ALL' gas stations have the same pricing on fuel...NO.

I have a fuel App and over the Wiesbaden area....there's probably a 4-cent difference  between the 30-odd stations around the city for E-10 fuel.  The no-name shops are definitely at the lower end of the pricing.

4.  Ban coming for robo-mowers and night-time mowing....by German federal law?

Well...there's a lot of talk by the animal rights people...suggesting it's not right.  Personally, if you make the case for no-night-time mowing mowing.....the same save-the-animals logic should exist for day-time mowing as well.

In the 12-plus years I've mowed this German property yard....on one single occasion....I had a injured bird of some type.  I halted mowing for the day, and he was gone by the next.

5. Forsa/RTL-TV gave a survey....who do you trust (party-wise)?

CDU-CSU: 15-percent.  AfD at 14-percent.   SPD at 4-percent.

Top winner?  NO PARTY at 52-percent.

I sat and pondered this for 20 minutes....it's a weird question, and unusual 'winner'.   It means that the public is losing confidence with the system to work.  Who would blame?  Mostly the parties...but ARD/ZDF (public TV) has done a good bit to encourage folks to have faith......then delivered crushing 'blows' to the achievements actually delivered.  

6. At this past weekend's CDU-CSU-SPD meeting....odd topic came up.  CDU wants to abolish May-Day (federal holiday in Germany).  SPD basically basically 'hell-no'.

I personally think that Merz said it as a 'joke', to get SPD folks hyped-up and grumbling.

7. Will public workers (city/state employees) get the 1,000 Euro 'bonus' deal (tax-free)?  

Well....a CDU mayor indicated in pretty strong language...NO.  

There's going to be a lot of grumbling by the end of 2026 about this non-delivery of a bonus (tax-free). 

8.  Late yesterday....rumor-chatter started up that the EU intends to lower electrical prices across the 'land'.  How?  It wasn't really laid out.  I would assume they'd mandate some tax lowering dynamic. 

On the books....there are two 'taxes': VAT (sales tax) at 19-percent, and a Stromsteuer (2-cents per kWh).

However, there are four 'fees' also built into the system: Konzessionsabgabe (concession levy to municipalities): around 1.32–2.39 Euro cents/kWh. Then there is KWKG-Umlage (Combined Heat & Power levy): 0.446 cents/kWh....which supports efficient CHP plants. Then there's Aufschlag für besondere Netznutzung (§ 19 StromNEV): 1.559 cents/kWh....a special grid-usage surcharge.  Finally, there's Offshore-Netzumlage (offshore grid levy): 0.94 cents/kWh....which covers offshore wind connection costs.

Looking at this 'mess'....the EU must be bluffing folks.  If they inserted a 'cut' into any part of the grid cost....the German system would freak out because of lack of cash-flow to their pet-projects.

9.  DFB....the German soccer league....is starting up their own TV 'channel' (streaming-video)....5.99 Euro a month.

If you weren't getting enough soccer via  commercial TV or public TV....well, there's this. 

10.  The German term 'Milchmädchenrechnung' came up for me yesterday.

I spent about 15 minutes trying to grasp the term.

Translation?  Milk-Maid's calculation.

So....about 300 years ago...in Switzerland...in some fictional book....the writer wrote a paragraph that involved a rather naive gal, who had a side-business of some type, and had a profit plan that seemed to make sense on paper, but when it was applied....it failed.  Reasoning?  The young lady really didn't understand the complexity of commerce and business.

Some German yesterday uttered this...referring to the CDU-CSU-SPD folks.  

Three Odd Things I Noted

 1. Over the past year or two...if you were a resident of Berlin (the city)....you probably noticed increased trash on the street, and around the parks.

This AM...the CDU-led  city gov't came up and said: Berlin will start to reward tourists in the future....if they pick-up trash. You'd get vouchers.

They are also hiring  trrash  investigators....to walk the streets and find dumped-crap....putting into effect...higher fines.

I paused over this.  If I had 7 days off, and settled for a Berlin trip...I'm NOT about to waste one day of it...picking up trash.  My wife (being German) will go ballistic if I even suggest a day on collecting trash.

2  Just a lot of chatter over the past week or  two....Germans remembering 1973.....when the gas crisis hit Germany, and autobahns on weekends were deserted.

The odds of this in  April or May...near zero.

Odds in July or August? I'd say we are approaching a 50-percent point for a 1973-type crisis level.

3.  So talk of change has started to occur with German health insurance.

If you didn't know....there's around 90-plus health plans in existence.

The CDU has started a talk....to  dissolve the bulk of these....with the goal  being in the end....ten.

Grumbling?  Oh yeah....fair amount of negative talk has started up.

A change requiring the SPD to agree?  Yes....and they might not be that agreeable.

Were they that different?  Some were regional....some had limited situations for rehab (physical or drug or alcohol)....some required weight loss for knee or hip operations.

The chief problem....cost is escalating, and the state/federal apparatus....needs some tool to curtail rising costs.

Humble Thoughts Over Iran

 Four observations:

1.  Production-wise, they still drill and pump oil....HOWEVER, it gets to a depot area near the coast, and the tanks are rapidly filling, with almost nothing getting loaded on oil-tankers.

From my reading yesterday....I asked Grok (AI)...how much time was left before the tanks are all full....roughly 13 days was the answer.

So at the end of April...drilling stops.

Revenue from oil?   ZERO for the most part.

Iran had nothing much to make income off of.....so there's a cash-flow issue brewing.

2. Hyper-inflation on food?  Feb numbers suggest 47-percent.

3.  Jet-fuel rationing going on?  Yeah....mostly from the Gulf region is where this commentary comes from.

4.  Airport strikes going on...workers aren't showing up.  Some indications that only gov't ordered flights now operating.

Quiet-Quitting Chatter

  I noted yesterday.....some German using in social media.....the term 'quiet quitting'.

The meaning?  It's usually when people have no more interest in their profession...their job, or their political position.

These are people who screw up  constantly....make routine daily mistakes...their good/bad decision level is 50-50....seem lacking in motivation, and they can't seem to be truly reliable.

The  term is usually for commercial operations....this guy meant it for the CDU-CSU-SPD folks.

I'm not saying  he's right, or wrong.....just that you normally meant it to be used for sports teams, or commercial work (maybe for charity work too).

My worry (if I were a German)....if a majority of German voters believe in this concept, and see the coalition as 'quiet quitting'.....they might get the idea that voting AfD resolves this issue.