Q-and-A: The Ukraine-Russia War And European Views

 Five observations:

1.  For the first year or two....most European countries were careful to support Ukraine....trying hard not to upset Putin.

Last year or two...mostly the opposite....military support is obvious, and Putin makes a blunt 'we-can-hit-you' statement at least once a month to Europe.

2.  Financially finished?

I'd say both France and Germany are near the end-point where they can afford both military support and public needs support.  

3.  Public support less today than three years ago?

If you vote for the Linke Party or AfD Party....you are not favoring Ukraine any longer, and lean toward Russia.  I'd say 40-percent of the German public feel this way now.

4.  Does Germany need the natural gas of Russia?

Yeah, and its pretty obvious that the industry of Germany really can't afford this current strategy of not buying Russian natural gas.

5.  Out of the million-plus Ukrainians in Germany....how many would return home if the war ends?

There is no poll to say one way or another.  Younger Ukrainians who've been here since day one....I believe....are very unlikely to return to Ukraine if the war is concluded.  My guess is that a quarter-million would stay in Germany.

Q-and-A: My Thoughts On German Public Transportation

 1.  Am I pro-public-transportation?

I have a love-hate relationship over it. 

I think both the local App and the Bahn App are 5-star.  I agree...I feel completely safe on the local city bus.  For what you pay....it's a great deal.

So, the bad parts....the bus for 7AM to 8:30 AM: loaded usually, and you have to stand.  Out of sixty-odd occasions I use the bus yearly....my projected bus gets cancelled at least five times, and I'm behind schedule.  Any train that I take toward Frankfurt in the rush-hour....is likely overflowing, and I stand.  If the temp is 35 C (95 F) or hotter....you can forget about the bus or train AC working.  

2.  The basic difference between 1st class and 2nd class?

If you board a train made prior to 2000...you have the look/feel of 1st class being 'better'.  You can't really say this with the ultra-modern trains...other than the '1' being prominent and the seats are slightly more spread out

3.  Are the train stations toilets or the train WC's always functional?

Ever since the stations went to a commercial operation and forced you to pay 1-Euro for entry....they seem to be clean, tidy, and functional. 

Train WC's?  On regional trains....it's about a 20-percent chance of them being broke/non-functional.

Always try to do your business in the station.

4.  Do I have any 'fear' around train-stations?

Moderately sized stations....like Mainz or Wiesbaden or K-Town?  NO.

Frankfurt, Bremen, Hamburg....yeah, I watch my back and go into vigilant-mode.  

5.  Armed guards on trains?

Before 2010....NEVER.  At some point around 2015 to 2020....you started to notice on rare occasions....Bahn-Security in the stations.

Since 2020....on the trains (regional and ICE)....there's green-boot-military-style Bahn-'Army' guys/gals.  Last year....I noted some 6 ft tall German red-headed gal...160 pounds of muscle....inspecting tickets in the Bahn-Army uniform....figuring she could beat the crap out of anyone.

6.  Can you get any decent food on a Bahn train?

Well....the days of the 1970s/1980s where there was the dining car and a plate/beer was available for 24 DM....long gone.  There are cafe-cars...usually with beer/coffee, and chips.  

If you have a hunger...prior to the trip....go pick up some snacks in the station.

7.  A drug-zone within five minutes walking of any metro train station?

I'd argue...in forty (top) metro stations in Germany....yeah, they all have a drug zone. Before 1990s....that didn't exist.

Think Like Macron

  "France was not invaded by hordes of Muslim immigrants. Those images are false, it's AI and foreign manipulation."

-- President Macron, France

I paused over the statement last night.  Maybe all of the riot/destruction business....never occurred, and was simply a CIA-operation to make France look dangerous.  Yeah....I could believe that.

But why stop there?  This sex-situation between 15-year old Macron and his 40-year old teacher....maybe that was invented and simply a AI-creation.

Maybe the UAP/UFO BS....was invented and is simply a AI-creation.

Maybe this Meghan/Harry drama in the UK....was invented and is simply a AI-creation.

Maybe Covid was never more than a invented drama and simply a AI-creation.

What you need...is enough drugs/booze...to think in the mindset of Macon....then things will turn out OK.

Is There A Budget Shortfall About To Fall Into Place? (In Germany)

 Well....for 2027's budget....YES.

The Bundesrechnungshof (Germany’s independent Federal Court of Auditors) analyzed the 2027 draft budget and says a budget gap (Deckungslücke) of 160.7 billion Euro exists.

The way to look at this?  There are planned expenditures of 555.4 billion Euro....with a projected tax revenues of 394.7 billion Euro.  Roughly speaking....it's around 30-percent of spending that is not currently covered by revenues and must be financed primarily through new bank-borrowing.

Remarkably sounding like 2024?  Well....under the SPD-coalition....they had a serious budget failure, and the FDP-partner (owning the Finance Army of the gov't)....refused to borrow excessive funds.

Merz so far?  He has NOT said much.

Ukraine hoping to get more funding via Germany?  I'd say extra funds are near impossible to talk about.

What can you blame the spending upon?

Mostly social spending (largest category): Around 201–239 billion Euro. Roughly 132 billion Euro of that is federal subsidies to the statutory pension insurance alone. 

Defense (biggest growth driver)? The core defense budget rising from 83 billion Euro (2026) to 110 billion Euro (2027), a jump of roughly one-third. 

Massive taxation coming?  Well....you'd have two choices....borrowing more money and hoping for a economic turn-around (not likely).....or collapse the gov't (like at the end of 2024) and leave it for some other idiots clean up.

I could see some idiots at the SPD and CDU hoping for a collapse....getting the Greens into some win-win position...forming a coalition with the Linke Party and SPD Party, and blaming the massive tax increase on the Greens for a year or two.

As for 2027?  Don't go expecting a lot of positive economic news.

Three Political Predictions (For Germany)

 1.  January leadership meeting for SPD (left-of-center)....results in Manuela Schwesig (current Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) as new party 'boss'.

She'll find some brief path for numbers bumping up for the SPD....from current 14-percent to 18-percent....taking votes primarily from Greens/Linke Party.

I'm not saying SPD has a win-factor (AfD will have near 28-percent on polling), but AfD can't get a coalition gov't formed, and the CDU-CSU folks are weakened enough to be in third-place.

2.  Within 4 months, Merz's coalition gov't collapses.  SPD will see the CDU at their weakest point since 1945.  Oddly, this weakness problem will extend to Bavaria....with the CSU harmed by the national CDU strategy.

3.  Finally, I think starting around the last day or two of October....the French riots will start up in Germany, and prove to be a public safety problem over the entire month of November.  Merz has limited ability to halt the riot-damage.  Some odd blame will be centered on Putin/Russia....suggesting they hyped the riot crowd.  

21 Oct 2026: Germany: 12 Stories

 1.  NFL commissioner says the Sunday game in Paris is a 'go'.  No intention to cancel or move the game.  Just a humble view....Paris police probably would need a couple thousand to ensure fans to reach the arena.

2.  There are internal 'warning' documents for the German Bundeswehr (Army) that Russian sabotage is now possible (on German soil). (Focus)

3.  Some belief here in Germany that Paris-like riots are possible in Germany.  Whole different reaction by German police, and surveillance is probably double what the French police use.

4.  Weird talk last night on ZDF (public TV, Channel 2) public forum how....Marcus Lanz Show.  Topic?  Apocalypse....doomsday....chaos.  

5.  New poll on support for Chancellor Merz....now down to 10-percent.  Ninety-percent of those polled....said that it's time to have a new Chancellor.  

6.  Berlin-City police are now preparing for France-like riots.  

7.  Somehow....some German luggage that was destined for Valencia (Spain)....got routed to Chicago.  

8.  Bavaria (the state) poll....CSU is at the lowest point of past three years.....AfD at highest point (still in 2nd place).

9.  FORSA poll....indications of a majority of German now believe in a early collapse of the Merz coalition (CDU-CSU-SPD). 

10.  I was at a local Ikea store last week....around 12:30.  Walking past the restaurant area...it's jam-packed full....probably 400 folks.  I have to admit....per-plate....it is probably the cheapest place to eat in the region.

11.  Amazon says they will invest near 4.8-billion Euro in Hessen (the state).  There are four sites that are being reviewed, for these data-centers.  I gazed at the map....one of them is about 10 miles east of my place....near the Flughafen/Airport.  All centered around Frankfurt apparently.

12. Massive accident here in Hessen (Bad Homburg) last night.....six wild boar crossing a road......car wiped-out (six dead boar, two injured humans)....at least 100,000 Euro in vehicle damage.  Road had to be shutdown for several hours...to clear the mess.

Three Observations

1.  Chancellor Merz gave a 'talk' with Bloomberg business TV this AM....was asked about the France riot business.

His response?  “The reason for this is migration.” 

Then he gave a brief insight....blaming bot immigration and poor integration.

If you'd been the journalist....you should then ask...how is France different from Germany.

I would make the observation....if you went to burning down Hamburg, Bremen, or Essen....the German police would look closely at the riot-crowd....determine that 90-percent seem to be German and ask questions. It'd be classified as 'revolutionists'....not migrants.

2.  Why Germans don't really 'fret' over Russia or 'war'?

I would offer three basic reasons.  First, on a economic scale...other than selling oil/natural gas....Russia is at the same level as Albania (a belief of Germans).  Second, the folks who do 'fret'....are probably over the age of 70, and readily remember THE WAR, and the 1950s/1960s.  The rest of the crowd don't see a war-worry.  Third and final....if Facebook and Tic-Tok made a big deal over this....there would be worry...but you just don't see that type of chatter.

3.  Hurricane-like weather for the northern half of Germany for Friday/Saturday?

Well....weather folks are discussing this.

20 Oct 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

 1.  ARD (public TV) last night....ran roughly two hours of German civil service job chatter....mostly that Germany has too many gov't workers.  I'd say close to 80-percent of Germans agree....there is a problem, but selecting the solution or who to 'let-go'....is near impossible. Total of those counted?  Near 1.8-million.

2.  Chancellor Merz gave a talk yesterday....says that Germans are not taking the threat of Russia serious. I might agree....average German does not put the Russia-threat-chatter in a top ten thing to worry about.

3.  Italy is trucking 500 Italian soldiers to Milan....to send the message....no riots desired.  Police detained 270-plus folks from yesterday's demonstration.  Some commentary....indicating even 12-year-old kids were among the 'bad-boys'.

4.  Iran called in the German ambassador to Iran....some negative comments.

5.  Berlin-City: Linke Party talking of forcing acquisition of 160,000 apartments (to be city property)......would need 10-billion Euro to accomplish this.  Doesn't say where the money would come from. Belief is....they'd control rent costs.

6.  Curfew rules set for some French cities now.