How Bad Is The German Natural Gas Crisis?

On the harsh-winter index (my region)...1-to-10....this past 3 months has been a '8' (not terrible with snow or ice,  but temperatures have been mostly Minus-5 to pluss-5 for the winter so far).   Expectations for the next two weeks?  Lot of showers (plus-5 to plus 8 C), with some negative numbers this weekend (with snow expected).

So here's the thing...natural gas supplies/reserves have been noted declining....with the country reserves near 27-percent.  All of this because of the Russia situation.

Public authorities? No public comments whatsoever.

What the weather guys are saying of March?  Well.....lower than normal temperatures.

The belief is that once we get to below 20-percent in reserves....things will get pretty expensive.

How full are Germany's gas storage facilities really – and why that's misleading.

LNG ships coming in?  This is often discussed, but the reserves number never seems to bounce upward.

The chatter?  Some belief....that as we get to 15-percent....a  national authority will have to give some speech, and issue directives to cut use. I'm guessing home owners will be asked to set the temp near 18C (64 F).  For stores/factories....wouldn't shock me if the temps were set 17C (62 F).

Should they have said something back around Christmas?  Probably so...but I doubt that anyone with the CDU-CSU-SPD wants to take charge over this.

Should the EU step in and create a 'miracle'?  Well....unless Italy or Spain is sitting  on huge amount of extra natural gas....there's not much to be said or done. 

That 'Juna' Gal?

 So Focus this AM....brought up this social media story.

There is this great trainee profile  created in Germanny....one which is a bit flawed in nature....that happened to be generated by KI (artificial intelligence).

Name?  Juna.

Juna....fake in nature but run by a AI system...is fairly busy.

She's been an apprentice at a roofer's in Hamburg, in a car repair shop, in an elderly care facility, and even pretends to work for real German companies.

At one point....she was an apprentice at Deutsche Bahn (the railway system).

Fake posts?  Yeah.  No one has told the AI that it's a bad thing....at least....so far.

Very suggestive and sexual?  Well....yeah, that has come up by folks reviewing the profile.

This likely to get federal attention shortly....with regulation to control Juna?   I would imagine so.

What could occur?  If AI is cut  loose....I might imagine 1-million fake accounts coming to exist in Germany....with AI making up fake stories....day after day.

IQ Story

 I sat and read Euro News this AM....with the chief article: "The IQ of Europeans is dropping due to technology, say researchers."

The big concept?  Since the 1990s....technology has probably interfered with the development of education...causing folks to have a lesser IQ.

They aren't saying technology made people more stupid....just on the level of understanding the facts, and making balanced decisions....people are apparently less capable.

I paused over this. There's no personal doubt that German teens are probably less developed than those coming out of school in the 1980s.

Any of this worrying me?  If you approach AI-Johan and present a problem....it's probably a 99-percent that AI-Johan will reach a logical (positive) solution...something that I can't really trust if plain old 22-year-old Johan were given the same problem.  

But there's the delayed effect...in thirty-odd years, while holding an election....fifty-percent of the German public might have an IQ of 75-to-85, and vote in some crazy illogical fashion.   That's what I worry about.

11 Feb 2026: Germany: 6 Things

1.  This Thursday...Lufthansa pilots plan a 1-day strike.

2.  Polling: two-thirds of German  voters believe the current welfare-state....cannot continue on.  This puts both the CDU-CSU and SPD parties into a bind. 

3. Serious amount of rainfall for Wed/Thur.....in the northern quarter of Germany....snow.

4.  Besides the language classes mandated....non-Germans are also herded into integration classes (typically four weeks).

The funding for these?  Well...the federal gov't.  This past week....the Federal Office said it was restricting access to these courses. 

"In particular, asylum seekers, those with tolerated stay status, people from Ukraine," and EU citizens will no longer be admitted.

At the state level....some folks are hyped-up over the decision.  

5.  Poll done in Germany.....only 55-percent of Germans feel 'safe'.  

69-percent of Germans  now feel like Germany might get mixed up in a war.

Two-thirds of Germans polled....feel that the US is a 'threat' to  world peace.

If you asked me to explain these numbers....it helps to have public TV setting the pace, and keeping you focused nightly on hyped-up stories.  If they weren't telling the worry-stories....they'd have to focus on the economy....over-regulation, and stalled commerce (within Germany).

6.   Trump administration says it will transfer command of the NATO Southern Command in Naples to Italy and command of the Northern Command in Norfolk, Virginia, to the UK.   Other topic in discussion....the US will assume command of NATO naval forces (currently based in the UK).  If you asked me if Northern Command  will remain in Virginia...I'm of the mind it'll move to some location in the UK.

10 Feb 2026: Germany: 6 Things

 1.  I went back yesterday and watched the clip from the ARD Sunday night public forum show...Caren Miosga show.  Primary talk?  She moderated one-on-one with  AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla.

I'll just say two things....Miosga is usually 200-percent prepared to take on guests, but on this occasion....every time she herded him toward a bad position....he got the best of the discussion.

Second...of the dozen-odd top-dogs of AfD....Chrupalla  might be the brighter of the bunch.

2. BSW Party is still  pursuing a court-action to have the Jan 2025 German election ballots recounted. They missed the 5-percent vote 'mandate' by around 9k-to-10k votes.  They believe in some way....if a recount were to occur...the votes would be found, and they'd get seats in the Bundestag.

3.   Rail 'safety-summit' planned in Berlin for Friday....talking over increasing dangers. 

4.  Odd German statistic, 2024 numbers out for marriage registrations.....350k.  Lowest number (per year) since 1950.

5.  EU is talking to Europol (their police mechanism) to investigate Epstein.  Maybe a good idea...but 7 years (minimum) too late.

6.  Just odd....the 26-year-old Greek guy who killed a German train conductor last week....on a regional express train with his bare fists....had a brief encounter prior to the 'fight'.

Police say they  removed the 26-year-old from a TGV train arriving from France in Kaiserslautern at 11:50 a.m. because he had kicked a door inside the train. Train conductors asked for police help  at that point.

More and more...the guy seems 'heated-up' (drugged) in some fashion.  He hasn't said a word since the arrest.

As for the dead guy?  Well....it was a brain hemorrhage resulting from blunt force trauma to the head.  I don't see the Greek guy getting anything less than 20 years.

Pension Story

 Focus interviewed a guy who has worked now for 50 years (age 74).  In his youth, he ended up at a university, and got a degree in communications engineering.   His  job for a couple of years, then ended up in medical services.

His pension today at 74?  1,071 Euro  a month.....which is below1,200 Euro....generally believed to be poverty-retirement.

Thirteen-million Germans are in this poverty-retirement landscape.

It's a sad bitter end-story for the guy.

End of RTL's Jungle Camp Show For 2026

 Well....it turned out to  be the most controversial show of the past 20-odd years....mostly because they invited Gil Ofarim as one of the twelve.

I won't go and rehash Gil's story from 2025....but it's safe to say that probably 30-percent  of viewers were hated Gil with passion.  At lease three  of the twelve did  everything possible to  drag up the Gil-scandal.

So around 1030 last night....voting  came up for the final three, and Gil won.

Via social media....it's a shit-storm.

Gil wins 100k Euro....on top of his salary for the three weeks...around 300k Euro.  He needs the money to pay damages for the hotel/clerk he insulted, the court fees and lawyer fees.  I'm guessing half the money will go out for this cost.

Peeved a lot of viewers?  Yeah....but the viewership was probably near a all-time level, and I'm guessing RTL is searching around to find  two or three other people like Gil for the 2027 show.

All of this consuming two whole weeks....from 8:15 PM to midnight?  Yeah....they built up three shows nightly to consume the topic and get people tangled-up into the soap opera.

Heat Chatter

I read this in the AM today.....according to the World Health Organization (WHO), approximately 489,000 heat-related deaths occurred globally each year between 2000 and 2019, with the WHO European Region accounting for 36-percent of them or more than 175,000 deaths annually on average. 

More or less....heat stress.

My belief in this numbers stuff?  

Living around Germany for 30-odd years....yeah, I've seen awful stupid stuff.

While at Bitburg....we  had a Lt  in the office....barely on base four weeks, who signed up for a Volksmarch on a 34 C Saturday (93 F).  Long about the 90 minute  point....he had heat exhaustion issues....requires emergency 'help', and got a ambulance ride back to the base.

I went on a 16 km 'walk' here in the hills around Wiesbaden on a 35 C day, with a 1-liter container of water.  Long about the 90 minute point....I had finished off  the bottle and realized....I was still a good 5 km from finishing (at a bus-stop). I wouldn't make it....without more water.  So I altered my route...ending up in some German grocery 2km away, and buying a fresh bottle of water before I collapsed on the path.

Do I believe 3,000 Germans die yearly from heat exhaustion?  No....there are mild-regular summers where it probably ranges in the 1,200 to 1,500 range....with ultra-hot summers in the 5k range.

For 2025....the number often cited is around 1,477....from sources I consider 'safe'.

2022?  It was a harsh summer...most folks arguing the number got up around 6,000.

The 2018 harsh summer?  That gets discussions brought up....'wave' after 'wave'...where some 'experts' state a 8k-plus number.  

The idea that Germans ought to wise-up on heat exhaustion?  On our regional network (HR)....they will waste a whole Wednesday night 45-minute 'slot'....usually in May...hyping up heat stroke and how to recognize a harsh situation.  

My worst experience?  Around 2016...I went off about 150 km on a train (early AM) in mid-July to a museum.  By noon, I was ready to return.  The AC unit on the train?  Failing.  By the 30th minute of the trip....the temp in the car raging near 44 C.  I got off the train....sat in a bar for hour....cooling off.  Then managed to ride the rest of the trip.