When The Smoke Finally Clears Over The Ukraine-Russia 'War'

 First, the Crimea will probably (because of Russian economic disaster)....will return to Ukrainian control.  Oh the population shift?  I imagine half the population will up and leave for Moscow...creating a weird disaster.

Second, Putin ends up buried in some graveyard, with honors.  I don't think the FSB really cares for him carrying things to the next level.

Third, the banks of Russia....will be in disaster-mode for a year or two....requiring help from the US/EU/Asia.

Fourth, you will never know the true death-count for Putin's army.  More-than-a-million.....probably nearing 1.5-million.  

Fifth, as Ukraine opens it's gates....roughly a half-million will exit and never return. 

January 1978: The 'Guest' Lecture

 Upon arriving at Rhein Main AB, West Germany...there was a in-processing session.  Somewhere in the four hours of that morning....there was a 8-to-10 minute 'lecture' which went this way.

'You are a guest of West Germany.  For some....it's Disneyland.  For others....it's s beer paradise.  A few might even suggest it's rough to get orientated upon. You make the best out of it....as a 'guest'.  Don't do anything stupid....don't insult anyone....don't go and think you can out-drink any German.  Don't waste this opportunity.'

There were probably forty tips in the lecture (most I've forgotten).  The intent was to let you know.....you were invited in some way and have a obligation to act as a 'guest'.

Later on....1984 when I returned....there was no guest lecture. Same story in 1993.

Over the years....I've had the idea that the 'lecture' needs to be recreated....in a longer format....in a more blunt form.

Yeah, I might suggest.....that probably one-third of the 'guests' can't honor the obligation.

AC Chatter

 I saw this in the AM today....ZDF-Heute info poster....the 'evil-AC' stuff.

The basic words?  

Mobile air conditioners are BAD because the warm exhaust air is vented outside and then delivers hotter air to the world.

In my village of 4,000 folks and around 600 residences?  I would imagine one out of three now have a AC unit.

Yeah.....the air (hotter-than-hell) has to go somewhere.

My Thoughts: UK

I watched about 90 minutes of BBC yesterday (normally, I might average 15 minutes a month).

The PM's 'I'm-leaving' speech and analysis took up the bulk.

Then you had this weird overhead view.

BBC paid some chopper crew to follow the Manchester-to-London train....delivering the immortal Andy Burnham into London....to be the next PM.

Yes.....live.

The way it felt....like some train-delivery of Jesus or Moses.

It just felt like some TV production.

23 June 2026: Germany: 5 Stories

 1.  Citizen Vigilante has come out (movie).

Basic script.....some bad folks have corrupted European society...finally peeving some American guy who is a combo Billy Jack-Dirty Harry-The Punisher-John Wick....who brings vigilantism to Europe.  I watched probably 12 minutes of clips....fairly blunt....violent.

So....Germany's film review agency did review the movie but refused to give it a rating....so it means it can't be shown at a theater....reason given....'would incite people'. (they don't say which people)

Can a German still view the movie?  Only in Blue-Ray form....coming out of Austria  and Switzerland. 

So I will suggest this.....couple of hundred Turks who own smoke/drink shops....will illegally import 100,000 copies of it from Austria and likely sell it under the counter.  Turks....will watch and readily agree....some folks have arrived in Germany over the past decade....making for problems.

It's not a four-star script.....could readily be a 2nd and 3rd movie.

2. France-Iraq World Cup game on the air last night....starting at 11 PM.  Rain-storm in the middle of the pause.  Two hours added....restarted at 2 AM (local) and finally ended at 3 AM.  France won 3-0.

Earlier game.....Messi versus Austria. 2-0: Messi.

3.  Moscow stock exchange....at lowest point of past 3 years.

4. N-TV: German shops/stores....reporting record level of shop-lifting.

5.  Heat?  30-plus temp's for seven more days....peaking this weekend at 38 C locally (100.4 F).  

The 'Quiet-Germans'

 Jan Josef Liefers. actor/intellectual.....gave a podcast talk this past weekend.  He's one of those folks who seems to think over consequences in life and make observations.

So he talked about the topics of the AfD, Covid, and the left-wing restriction of freedom of speech. 

In a kind way....he described the country with a negative fundamental mood and people striving to not speak over their opinons....at work, at school, at the church, with neighbors, or social gatherings.

If you asked me of the 'quiet-Germans'....it's probably reached the 40-to-50 percent level (my assigned level).

If someone tries to state a topic....the quiet-German simply gazes off and acts like they know 'nothing'....realizing their opinion might shock the associate or neighbor.

Where they know they can state their mind....at the ballot-box....voting for AfD.

I sat six years ago, and noted a conversation between two Germans (strangers).  One was a craftsman....asked over a task.  The second was a person with a job in their mind.  One uttered a thought (not blunt)....the other uttered a connecting thought (also not blunt).  Within two minutes....both were uttering commentary that you'd typically not hear. It was a harsh exchange on political dialog.

Two quiet-Germans.....realizing each had a blunt thought in their mind.

What got thing this way?  I'd suggest the refugee/migrant era (2013-2017), and Covid.  You had to be careful and avoid certain words....over the period....Germans learned how to be 'quiet'.

A good thing?  Well....no, but it made the 'lecture-Germans' happy....thinking they'd convinced the bulk of society to accept their BS.

Five Humble Thoughts

 1.  New incoming Labour Party PM?  Simply a fresh face with the same problems and 'faults'.  I'd give him no more than 12 months.

2.  The entire top level of Mullah-leadership of Iran exists in a bubble, and their mentality is that of 3rd-grade kids.  Basic formula to beak up Iran into five to ten 'nations' (eventually).

3.  The chief problem facing German politics from a economic/jobs/commerce level....they've (the leadership for 30-odd years) have designed a highly regulated mechanism....determined to fail. Since unification....it's meant to go this path.

4.  The eventual failure of AfD to deliver a solution for migration?  There's a deportation listing of 200,000 folks and no gov't (even a AfD-led one) can design a fix where they actually deport folks ASAP.  If you did find a solution....then starting to bag guys at the court-hearing....off German soil in 12 hours....it'd be a miracle.

5.  Is the German pension program crap?  Well...if you just took the amount they gave you and exited to Vietnam or Thailand.....you'd do very well.  It's just that they all seem to want to live out their lives in Germany....grumbling over energy prices, rent, taxes, and cost of living.

22 June 2026: Germany: 4 Stories

 1.  Down in the SW....in the Saarland.....fight started up at a public pool.  The way the police describe....total brawl....100 guys...mostly all non-Germans (some spoke French). Argument over something?  Well....they (the police) could not draw any conclusions.  

I should note across the border into France....lot of new pool rules, and they won't accept any violence.

2. There are 33 'proposals'  on the German reform-the-pension-plan situation that are under review.

3. Next German World Cup game....at a stadium with artificial turf. Lot of criticism.

4. For my valley's weather chat for Friday....expected temp of 100 F. Yeah, I dragged the portable AC unit from the basement up to the apartment.