My Thoughts On Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland Exiting The UK?

 The story goes....tomorrow....the three will meet and organize one joint exit document and prepare the general public for what will likely come by the end of 2026.

Scotland opinion....mostly tied around 44-percent for/against....with around 10-percent undecided.  This would be the group of interest.

Wales? Latest poll shows only 26-percent in favor....so it's very unlikely to pass.

Northern Ireland? It's in the 35-percent range or a united Ireland (from a August poll).

So if you ask me....lot of chatter, but Scotland is the only one of the three that might exit (likely to re-enter the EU).

Story From Last Friday Evening

German police tell this story. 

This started up on a train between Neuss and Essen (NW Germany)....Friday evening.

So....a drunk Iraq 'teen' got tangled up in a fight against what was a couple of 16-year old kids (mostly girls).

Aggegedly....he groped one guy (non-German)...touching the guy via his buttocks/genitals.  Then he held some German teen girl....kissing her.  They got loose....got the train conductor involved.

The drunk Iraqi teen then reportedly approached several girls....where warnings by the conductor didn't really change the situation.

The train conductor led the students out of the car.

The crap continued on....with two German students punched (with his fist).  One is severely wounded.

So, finally.....police enter the train.  The drunk kid continued with his behavior problem.  He made a couple of swings at the police....offered more verbal threats.

I sat and counted up....charge-wise....there's probably 15-odd charges.

Problem?  He's 18....even convicted....he'll be treated as a juvenile...so figure by age 21....he'll probably be released from juvenile-prison. AfD gets a story like this and floats it by the public.....just another reason to get tough on deportation.

Had he been 21?  Adult-court....probably upwards to ten to twelve years of time.  

Frankfurt: Crime-Clan 'War'

 Last night....between 4 and 5 AM....two explosive events in Frankfurt and Offenbach areas.  One was a pub....other being a Kiosk. 

Police investigating....no suspects yet.

Part of a ongoing situation....several over the past couple of years.

Trump-Ireland-United Chatter

What currently keeps the island divided (Ireland and Northern Ireland)?

Well....the island was partitioned in 1921 (by the UK). The six counties that became Northern Ireland were chosen because they had a unionist (largely Protestant, British-identifying) majority at the time.

If you go and chat with folks....they all admit that a vote could change things, but the majority of Northern Irish aren't willing to go to a united status.

Part of this continuing trend....the fact that the UK has funding going to Northern Ireland yearly?  Yeah, that probably makes up a quarter of 'stay-as-is'.

Most of the Northern Irish folks....if you engage in a conversation....will say they identify more as British....than Irish.

Trump's talk?  Well....it'll get into the news and be discussed in bars/pubs....but mostly go nowhere.

Explaining The Purpose Of A Kiosk

 You find them mostly in medium and large-sized cities of Germany....mostly in urbanized 'blocks'.  Size-wise....mostly 4 meters by 4 meters (rarely larger)....around 172 sq ft.

They mostly sell sodas, beer, candy, newspapers, 'smokes', lotto-tickets and magazines.

Hours?  Most open around 7 AM, and closing will occur between 6 and 10 PM.

If you ask the guy/gal running it on profit....they mostly will admit it's enough to sustain a couple....maybe one or two part-time employees.

Folks will come from a block or two away.....to buy a beer....socialize....and swap gossip.  Rarely are there chairs or tables set up.  It's mostly a standing-situation.

I won't say it's a dying commerce....but if you counted up all the kiosk operations in Frankfurt in 1978....probably only half of them still exist today.

You stop at the window....making your request/order.  You never get invited inside.  There might be three or four 'lean-stands' where you can sip your beer and swap soccer opinions with an associate.  Occasionally, the chatter might get to politics, scandal, TV options tonight, 'Jungle-Camp' BS, some police drama in the city, or some tale of woe over a neighbor.

If The Coalition (CDU-CSU-SPD) Collapsed?

Well....it does not mean automatically a new election.  The CDU-CSU could linger as a minority government.  The Chancellor in this position....probably would ask for a vote of confidence (from the 630 seats) and hope that he got 315 minimum.  If that fails....the President would schedule a new election within 60 days....giving everyone a limited time to meet...get agendas lined up, and vote for a lead candidate.

If new elections are called for?  This would likely occur by early December.

Polling?  AfD leads most polls....around 28-percent.  The CDU-CSU folks are polling around 19-to-21 percent.  SPD?  Around 13-percent.

Greens?  14-to-16 percent.  BSW, at 4-to-5 percent (they'd have to pull 5-plus.....to get seats).  Linke Party, at 10-to-12 percent.  FDP currently at 4-percent...meaning they probably would not get seats.

If you asked me over the CDU-CSU candidate? Hendrik Wüst (CDU), Markus Söder (CSU), Thorsten Frei (CDU), Johann Wadephul (CDU), and Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) are the top five.  

Public problem to drag upon such a election?  Mostly economic woes, unemployment, public safety, and natural gas pricing.  

The unusual conditions presently?  Merz was supposed to be this super-fix for the economy, and nothing much has come of that 'brand'. Looking over the SPD and CDU-CSU 'promises'.....none of the two really can openly promise much over the economy.  

Outcome?  AfD would 'win' but be unable to form a coalition....meaning the weakened CDU forms with the Greens, SPD....to get a short-term coalition (probably no more than two years)....then another election. 

13 Sep 2026: Germany: 3 Stories

 1.  I dragged the portable AC unit back to the basement....for storage.  I counted up the days of use....18 total....most of any year since buying it five years ago.  

2.  BILD did a survey....only 14-percent of Germans believe Merz is the right-guy for the Chancellor's job.

I would add....they didn't ask 'who' should be replacing him.  

3.  Some talk going on....Labor Minister and SPD leader Bärbel Bas is rumored to be pushed-out, and some talk revolves around the SPD refusing this idea that the CDU is supporting....meaning they would exit the coalition.  The CDU-CSU would survive in this scenario....as a minority gov't (pretty rare thing).  

This leads folks to think that some collapse will occur, and a 'new' federal election might be in the works (without Merz)....in the next six months.  Crazy talk.....if you ask me.

12 Sep 2026: Germany: 4 Stories

 1.  Watched a piece this AM off N-TV....suggesting natural gas prices this winter in Germany....might escalate up to 20-percent.

2.  Some Linke Party MP in the Bundestag....did some heckling during a session....given a fine of 2,000 Euro.

3.  Berlin-City 'state-election' coming up....17 parties now registered and will be offered.

4.  Bavaria.  WELT has a article this AM.....out of every two murder suspects in the state....one is noted as a non-German.