The Russia Saga...Collapsing?

 I watch around five different Russian economist podcasts per week.  One covers strictly grocery sales, and pricing.   Two cover banks....the other two....general  business trends.

I would suggest since late 2025....the five have reached a stage where they talk of the impending collapse.

Some elements involve the lack of cash funds....some zero infrastructure projects going on....some talk of manpower shortages...some elements involve zero loan opportunities exiting.

Since April?  Fairly dismal.

No one (even China)....has any faith in the problem resolving.

Putin unable to give up the war?  That's pretty much the weight of the problem.    

Three things I believe will happen over the remainder of 2026.

First, the Crimea will collapse entirely....with Russian troops escaping to the east.  A massive retreat....unauthorized by Putin, and troops refusing orders.....mostly over the lack of food.

Second, several eastern districts are likely to collapse and seek some framework to engage with China.

Third, the remaining oligarch members....'walking' out and giving up on ever returning to 'power'.

DDR Chatter

This week (9 June)....there was the official presentation of the Saxony Verfassungsschutzbericht 2025 report (basically....the yearly report on terrorism or extremism) in the German state.

So.....the Saxony’s Interior Minister....Armin Schuster (CDU).....made the comment that threats were now going on....with the right-wing extremist scene.....getting down to Kindesalter (juvenile folks).  Examples given....kids of 10/11....participating in protests.

He wants a status change....he wants the authorities to critically examine whether the age limit for collecting and storing personal data by the Verfassungsschutz should be lowered to 12 years. 

Yeah....so if you said some BS at age 12....you'd have a digital folder started, and kept (for years/decades).

Naturally, some folks said this sounds very DDR-like (old East Germany).

I paused over this.  You can imagine Johan and George...sneaking over to the police after school, and ratting on little Karl....that he uttered anti-society comments....remarkably....now having 16 pages of material against his character.

Society being able to survive 'crap' like this?  I have my doubts.

In some funny way....as much as people think old DDR dissolved away.....it simply waited, and got consumed into modern-Germany. 

Eventually, everyone in Germany will have a secret report.  

This Omar Abdulkadir Artan 'Affair'?

Omar Abdulkadir Artan is a Somali referee, who'd been selected to ref World Cup games in the US.

So....Artan goes to enter the US....traveling on a diplomatic passport of Somalia.

For those who aren't aware of the use....it IS a special/official type of passport....to be used by diplomatic staff.

Entering the US....'red-flags' came up over the use.

What can be said.....without interpretation....the gov't of Somali issued the passport so that there would be no necessity in denying him entry. 

Over several hours of interviews....it finally came out from the US side...Artan... is linked-up to suspected members of terror organizations (Al-Shabaab affiliates).  So on paper....this poses a national security threat.

Did FIFA know this?  I doubt it.

Did the gov't of Somalia know this?  I  would imagine they did....otherwise, they would NOT have issued the diplomatic passport.

Are there Somalia ref's not on some watch-list? No idea....an unknown.

Germans caught up in this.....believing you can't deny entry to World Cup  refs?  Well....yeah....the story is told in a way that you can't deny entry to refs...even if they are connected to terror groups.

Would Germany deny entry to Germans?  Over the past decade....since the ISIS-war....if you were a stupid German consumed to participate in the Syrian war....you can't re-enter Germany today....without spending several years in prison.

Are there any German players, or ref's.....on German diplomatic passports?   No (silly question).

Could the Somali ref come to Canada or Mexico, on a regular passport?   Yes, of course.  Oddly, this whole thing was designed as a news piece.

11 June 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

 1.  Stuttgart rail infrastructure project....delayed again? It's currently around 10 years in waiting-to-be-done status.  Based off commentary yesterday....they laid out around 1,000 km of cabling....incorrectly.   It has to be yanked-up and done right. Blame?  They aren't pointing fingers but you wonder.

2.  Some kind of massive power outage in Reutlingen (Baden-Wuerttemberg)....went on for several hours  Man-made incident.....everyone is avoiding saying a 'terror-act'.  

3.  Curious Forsa/RTL/N-TV survey/poll....Germans were asked 'who' can come in and fix all the problems/woes facing society.

CDU and AfD each had 13-percent.

Greens: 8-percent, Linke; 4-percent, SPD: 5-percent.

Then 55-percent said no party was capable of fixing the problems. Makes you wonder.

4.  RyanAir CEO gave a blunt talk on BER (Berlin' airport)....pretty negative...says the gov't now needs to step in.

Having recently been through BER....it's a nice medium-sized airport....fairly modern.  Bag-turn-in was five-star.  My general complaint....one  eating area....very limited seating (crap). 

5.  WELT piece: Talking over the Frankfurt train-station problems with safety.  One comment stuck out...they (the police) can run raids six times a day....yet the infestation of drugs....is still there.  My advice....if you have to travel  through (either via the long distance trains or subway).....just walk directly....don't linger....don't stop for a beer or burger.

My humble view....either in the station, or  in the underground area, or within 200 meters of the building....there's probably 300-plus people engaged in selling/dealing or using drugs....around the clock.  Cure? If they were to detain/take anyone....they need to physically remove them  (figure 200 km) from Frankfurt.

6.  N-TV: One in five Germans order 'something-grocery-like' via on-line now. 

The Arena-Show From Monday Night

ARD ran a forum (live) show last night....with SPD's Lars Klingbeil.

I watched probably around 25 minutes of it.  Two obvious notes:

First, Lars wore a suit, and was sweating at 200-percent....it was literally dripping off his head....onto the suit, and as much as he could wipe.....it just continued on, and on.

I felt sorry for the guy.  The studio was definitely not air conditioned.

Second, at some point....an older gal asked a question about the incoming migration folks, and if we really needed migrant-bus-drivers from South Africa or care-givers from the Philippines.

I paused over it....it was a blunt question.

So....if you go to any urban area (Bremen, Hamburg, Munich, Frankfurt, Erfurt, etc)....they have a shortage of bus-drivers.  If you go back five or six years ago....the bus companies made up for the problem by recruiting  French, Spanish and Greek drivers.  You came in....showing you could speak some German...had a license....and had a 3-to-6 month contract.....while staying in a hotel locally (paid by the bus company).

Inability of the cities to attract drivers locally?  Well....yeah.

Part of the blame is shift-work....part is the pay-scale.  

Care-givers the same way?  Yeah.  I went to a German  class in 2016....Czech gal....was offered a pretty heft pay-situation (in her mind) to work at a local retiree-home in Wiesbaden.  But she had to speak at  x-level for the job.

Again....same deal....shift-work, and limited pay-scale.

9 June 2026: Germany: 5 Stories

 1.  Last year.....about this time....my wife and I got a info sheet....a 'company' (leaving out their name) had won the contract to supply the village with fiber-optic (upgrade). They would dig up the pavement....lay the new fiber....arrive in person in spring 2026....deliver a new router, and hook us up.

Ok.....so the crew in the fall of 2025 started digging.  Oddly, they were all Albanian.  There were various issues but they eventually completed the fiber project.

Turning this on and delivering the router?  Well....delayed.

So yesterday....I was reading through news, and this odd topic came up.  The fiber company, the installation crew company (the Albanians), and several associate companies....under some fed investigation here in the region.  Cronyism and 'deals' accusation.

The odds that the new fiber deal will get turned on in 2026?  I'd say zero.  The original 'winner' of the contract....getting to keep the contract?  Unknown.  The unknowns settled by the end of 2027?  Well....unknown.

2.  Björn Höcke (the 'evil' AfD politician)....gave a speech over the weekend.  He basically went and said that West Germans are "German-speaking Americans."  

In his reality several million people in the East of Germany.....are "still Germans."

Naturally, I went to the German wife....asking her (originally a Hessen and  West German)....if she had become Americanized.  This spun her up.....probably was the wrong question to ask.

Now, if you were asking me (the American).....if western Germans were Americanized?  I'd say that the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s....Germans themselves had laid out a path for Germans where various American 'things' had been inserted into German society, and in urbanized areas (like Hamburg, Frankfurt, Mainz, Wiesbaden, Koln)....yeah....folks had been conditioned in some ways to be German-Americans.

Eastern Germans saved from this terrible 'suffering'?  I assume Björn Höcke believes that.

If Germans believed this idea?  Well....they'd have to purify themselves....get 'cleaned-up', and revert back to the German condition of the 1920s or prior.  Pretty confusing, if you asked me.

3.  I did watch the 45-minute piece of ARD last night....'The WM Cup in Trump's America'.

I'll just say....it was confusing.

If you were trying to get some World Cup insight.....it was marginal.

If you were trying to understand sports content in America....it was marginal.

If you were trying to get hyped-up (more-so) on anti-Trump stuff....well....you might have a dose.

They did about 10 minutes of Ultimate-Fighting chatter.....acting like it only occurs in the US.  I was shaking my head....UFC is German based as well....these two journalists obviously lack German sports knowledge.

4.  WELT piece: Study done.....German public support for 'queer' people on the decline.

I sat and pondered over this. If you were asking me on German sentiment....they frankly don't care. If you want to be into weird/kinky stuff....just do it and don't make a theatrical show out of it.

5.  Oddly, Russia is suffering through a gas/diesel fuel shortage.  You line up at a station, and figure an  hour minimum waiting.  

If On Welfare/Burgergeld In Germany, Do You Have To Report Income From Picking Up Bottles?

 If you walk around urban zones in Germany on an average day....you probably will notice a minimum of forty folks....looking for cans/bottles.  Finding some....they will supplement their 'lifestyle'.

Average?  Super-aggressive types...on a four-hour walk....might collect 40 Euro for a week.  Most folks....probably get in the range of ten to fifteen Euro a week.

So the social office will ask about 'extra' income, and if you were truthful....you might find a rule in place....which generally states....anything that amounts to over fifty Euro a month....detracts that amount from your next month's welfare check.

This came up recently in Hamburg, with a 75-year-old German guy admitting in the range of 58.25 Euro for a month.  I guess the guy was overly 'honest'.

Couple of years ago....some news group followed a guy and his teenage son....who had a particular route through a soccer stadium area and downtown section.....who had several bags.  They had over 200 Euro  for the day in collections.

8 June 2026: Germany: 3 Stories

 1.  Via the ARD public forum show last night (Miosga)....question came up to  Bärbel Bas (SPD, Minister of Labor)....how exactly can the taxation/social pension program carry the 'weight'  to produce....Bas more or less responds....the older generation and women will likely have to carry the burden (not young migrant guys).

This is an odd argument that you continually these day....with stagnation, Germany is not functioning like it was 20-to-30 years ago.

2.  Noted this story over in eastern Germany.....Cops in Großziethen (Dahme-Spreewald) came across a 6-year old boy....traveling alone on an e-scooter.  Problem is....no license plate....no insurance....unaccompanied.  I doubt that the kid knew the law.

3.  I watched the US-Germany soccer game on Saturday evening....Germany won 2-1.  I have to say....Germany was not dominating the game.  If this is the style of the team for 2026....they won't be in the final four.