28 March: Germany: 5 Things

 1.  Over the past month....if you watch economic news in Germany....the chemical industry is telling the Merz coalition.....they can't afford the grid-price on electricity.

The various hints being given?  Rather than resolve the grid 'mess'....there's some suggestion going on....where the general public would subsidize electricity prices for the chemical industry. 

Adding another reason for  more taxes?  Yeah.

My solution? Give up producing chemicals in Germany, and ship all production to China.  If you ask me....this was a designed strategy to trigger public discontent, and ship jobs overseas.

2. Federal Council meeting on hunting of wolves to be allowed....from yesterday.  Expected to be 'permits' shortly.

3.  Austria, Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark and Greece have formed what I'd call a 'deportation coalition'. They are careful on wording but they want a couple  of 'hubs' to  serve as migrant deportation return  centers.

Who are the hubs?  I'd imagine 'dirt-poor' countries that can be enticed.  

Looking at the five....I'd take a humble guess that together....they have in the 400,000 range to 'deport'.

This will involve cash to some degree....you agree to take 10,000....you get 3,000 Euro (my guess) for each one taken.  30-million Euro to settle. 

The three problems here?  Court action to prevent the hub-situation....deportees arriving in x-country on a Monday, and headed back to Germany by Friday.....and most of the poverty countries giving a limit of 10,000 per year (meaning it'll take a decade to  resolve this mess).

But here's  the selling point....if you can make this work...AfD's brand diminishes.

4. Federal Transport Minister Patrick Schnieder (CDU) gave a talk on the Bahn (railway system).  In simple  terms....he says its so screwed up that people are losing confidence that it can ever be 'fixed'.

As a occasional rider....I'll just say that the Bahn has become awful technical, and there are a thousand components....which any one can break and be a safety issue. I might add....of thirty-odd rides since early 2025 for me....at least six have been screwed up (minimum of thirty minutes late).  Back in 2019....on a trip into Frankfurt....the train halted in the tunnel system...unable to proceed because the train in front of us had already broke.  We sat for a good 45 minutes there in the tunnel.

5.  Chatter started yesterday....state-regulated fuel prices being discussed.

Politicians are convinced that the 'system' is rigged for profit.  If you view it from opposite view....six  different taxes are at play, and each time the fuel advances 10-cents....taxation advances as well.  Germans aren't stupid....they will figure out this 'game'.

One Odd Thing I Noticed Yesterday

The EU had a talk this week....then rejected 'chat control' of all internet communications.

What this leaves the Merz coalition?  Well....probably to have a German law where  all messenger services are checked/audited/reviewed by the police. 

I paused over this....thinking....the only way the police could cover such a massive 'empire'....is by hiring AI-companies to sort through the mess.

I'd suggest various contracts to be signed shortly....commercial companies selling intelligence-gathering software.  

Five Random Thoughts

 1.  When the 2029 German national election rolls around....the Greens, Linke and AfD parties will  have around 65-percent of the vote....meaning that the CDU-CSU and SPD will only be able to mount a 35-percent vote (combined). I'm suggesting this because of current trends and economic woes. It'll be a CDU-CSU coalition deal....but connected to the SPD, and Greens....to reach the 50-percent point.

2.  By the end of 2027, Germany will have a law in place...requiring textile companies and  German stores....must pay for disposal of clothing. Meaning?  That 7-Euro t-shirt you might buy....will have to be priced at 7.25 Euro....to cover disposal cost.  Germans will actively go into Poland, Italy and France....to buy cheaper clothing.

3.  If you really look into it....the current gov't is actively pursuing at least five different  'reform' programs, and making various promises....which will likely never be delivered.

4. Three German states are asking for a fuel-profit tax.  If you sell fuel, and make excessive profits (by the state belief)....a tax would occur.  I'll just go and predict....fuel shortages start to occur, as deliveries lessen in those three states.

5. It's reaching a point where German juveniles/teenagers actively joke about reality, the government, and regulation.

27 Mar 2026: Germany: 10 Things

 1. EU Parliament voted in favor of deporting illegal migrants to "return hubs" outside the European Union yesterday.

Now.....don't get excited....they didn't say the location of the hubs.

I would imagine they will advertise the situation, and five to ten countries will say....'lets-make-a-deal'.  Deal-period? It'll take three years minimum to rig up the  situation, and you (the EU) would have to pay some amount (guessing 100k Euro) for each person.

On the positive side....if ever made to work....most of  AfD's numbers would diminish.

For the guys on the deportation list?  Well....your upscale German lifestyle days....has a end coming...eventually.

2.   WELT polling....in some areas of Bavarian (the more wealthy districts)....AfD is polling locally at 57-percent.  Rest of the state....back down in the 10-to-15 percent range.   CSU is having an image problem.

3.  Bundestag passes law....gas prices at stations can ONLY change once per day.  Personal opinion....this law probably will only last 12 months...before being dissolved.

4.  WELT piece....by Gunnar Schupelius...."Do ARD and ZDF even take seriously what is happening here in Germany?".

Analysis of the public TV duo....with economic news.  Broad failing grade given....networks have a host of experts without real attention/focus on the nation itself.

5.  For about 10 years....there's this married couple (the Allgäu region) who are  alleged to have stolen coins from parking meters.  Amount?  Roughly 1.9-million Euro...

Local public prosecutor's office are charging the two. 

The odd part of the story....there's a belief that they stole half-a-million Euro prior to 2015....but the prosecution can't charge on that.

I'm just trying to imagine....walking into a bank weekly....with 2,000 Euro in coins, it's going to be hard to explain this.  

6.  Retailers sent a harsh letter to the head of the Finance for the German gov't....saying upping the VAT (sales tax) from 19-to-21-percent is going to harm the economy.

7.  German mayor gave a talk and uttered 'ghost-road'....I had to go and look it up.

 "Ghost-road" (German: Geisterstraße or Geisterautobahn) in Germany refers to an abandoned, disused, or overgrown road/highway that has been left to decay and is often reclaimed by nature. 

His use?  He suggests that this is a normal practice of the gov't to deliver something, and it's never working as originally advertised.

8.  Survey done (N-24).....suggests that German workers, when under pressure, will perform to show increased productivity....but it's mostly 'staged' (fake).  

9.  N-TV piece:  Ukraine apparently paying drone-pilots 'bonuses' per each Russian wounded, and killed.  You have to show video-evidence.

10.  HR item: 14,000 deer/car accidents are reported in Germany yearly.

Trust

 "If one doesn't trust the voter to be able to judge the problems, then one might as well abolish democracy right away."

-- Dieter Nuhr, Comedian

I paused over reading his quote this AM.  He's discussing and aiming his wit at Germans....but it fits as well for Americans.

Maybe if democracy were 'rocket-science'....you'd require special people to run a gov't.  But if you've been this crazy....'trust' is gone.

Exit Door

  Study done....."Jugend in Deutschland 2026"....trend study by Simon Schnetzer.  So he asked 2,000 Germans aged 14-29 about 'leaving'.

41-percentt consider emigrating out of Germany....with 21-percent having absolute concrete plans to exit.

Reasons?  Economic uncertainty, housing shortages, and political disillusionment.

Where to?  He didn't ask.

I asked AI to assemble exit data last year....with Austria and Switzerland at the top of the list for 'all' Germans as the end-point (not just youth).

A bad sign?  Well....if you  had 100,000 to 200,000 a year (just in the 19-to-29 age group)...yeah, it'd be a problem within 10 years.

Oddly, the coalition of CDU-CSU-SPD....is supposed to have top priority on economic woes and the housing shortage.  Merz is the top 'salesman' for this priority.

Voting Fraud Story

 The CSU mayor Wolfgang Seifert from Wülfershausen stood up today and confessed to having manipulated postal voting documents in several local elections. Police are conducting an investigation.

So I looked  up the population....1,533 total, of which...if you figure those under 18....figuring 75-percent showing up usually....figure around 800-to-900 votes typically....that he would have done some postal-vote fraud.  Just guessing here...but it's probably in the 50-to-75 document range.

No one really says where the votes came from....typically, dead folks are removed within a week or so after a certificate is created.

If you go back 30-odd years....most folks always showed up to vote,  and postal voting was only for military folks or those in old-folks-homes.

Whats the GKV Problem In Germany?

The GKV stands for Gesetzliche Krankenversicherung....is the public/statutory health insurance system (which covers about 90-percent of the population).

Basic isssue.....it has expenditures that are rising much faster than its revenues. This has led to repeated yearly deficits, and what you'd consider as depleted reserves.

I should add here....it's mandatory to participate in the public health insurance (the “Krankenkassen”). 

How contributions work?  Well....they are split between employees and employers (general rate of 14.6-percent with some type of variable additional rate).

Money flows into a central health fund (Gesundheitsfonds) and then is  distributed to the individual 'policy'.

Just about every year....expenditures outpace income....figure 7-percent usually.

Projected deficit of 10-to-15 billion Euro for 2027.

As you can imagine....clinics, doctors and hospitals are under massive pressure to hold costs down.

Why this keeps happening?   Simply a demographic game....retirees, fewer contributors.  Add onto it...medical and technological progress (expensive new treatments)

A special commission is renovate things....bring reform....for 2026.

The Merz coalition left to clean this up?  More or less.  There's simply no funds left to fill the gap unless you bump taxes up in some  fashion.

My final assessment....a tax-reform  will occur, but probably only buy the coalition five to seven years....where this will repeat again.

As for the new tax sources?  VAT going to 21-percent.....a likely sugar tax on sodas....higher-income folks taxed at a higher rate.