My Favorite Coup Story

Mid-1960s....Algeria....Houari Boumédiène ousted Ahmed Ben Bella from power.

So....at the time in Algeria....some movie production crew was filming 'The Battle of Algiers'.

Movie theme?  Actual 1950s independence movement...fairly historical.

19 June 1965 comes up....army units under Defense Minister Colonel Houari Boumédiène arrested President Ahmed Ben Bella in a limited action (no deaths).

Tanks and troops moved through the capital with ease....with the public used to the movie being shot.

Most residents assumed the activity was just more movie production. 

They all wake up on the 20th....rather shocked....coup completed, and the movie production continued on.

I always thought this was a great movie idea....having a actual coup built around a movie coup.

Riot-Demonstrations, and Poland

 Watched a fair amount of coverage over demonstrations (and later riot-action)....mostly over Frankfurt, Koln and Hamburg.

Most in Frankfurt?  Police say 8,000 range in mid-day....probably around 1,000 as darkness fell.  Violence/fires....mostly after dark.  Police detained a number of folks in the shopping district.  Report suggested around 1,000 police were on the scene there. 

Water cannon use noted....with temps down near 5C....awful cold if you got a full dose of the cannon.

I'd say there were two 'players'....students with complaints in the afternoon, who headed home as it got dark.  The rowdy folks stayed and caused the looting/damage. 

As for Poland?

I watched the PM (Tusk) give his 8 PM 'talk'.  Three things from that...he proposed at some point, resolutions and laws to rebuild the rule of law, but it's a odd statement from a guy who had a coup-card in the mix.

Then he said the police were there protecting the Constitutional Tribunal from the attackers....but as they arrived....they were mostly there to confine the folks inside the Tribunal building, who were gov't workers.

Then he said brawls are a bad thing....but never saying that coups are pretty bad as well.

I went and watched the 'talk'...with the sound muted.  What I can say....Tusk had a bad case of 'worry'/panic.  Hands shaking at times.  If you asked me over worries....he's maxing out on the scale. 

What does not make sense....polls show the KO-Party (Tusk's folks) leading (around 31/32 percent) with the fall 2027 election looking positive for a 'win'.  So why screw up the outlook with a banana-republic coup?  It does not make much logical sense.

Number of suggestions that the coup-planning was mostly a small group (maybe less than ten)....mostly folks around Tusk.  They seemed focused....at the end of the coup, there would be no President or VP....that the public would accept the coup as legitimate, and the whole landscape was we-are-protecting-democracy-by-cranking-up-a-coup.  

Early election BS?  There's simply talk....no substance.  There are various triggers to cause a Tusk coalition to collapse.  

Four parties make up the Tusk coalition....Poland 2050, Polish People's Party, the New Left, and finally KO (Tusk's own party).  Social commentary?  You get the impression that a lot of folks from the four parties probably were NOT expecting a coup occurring, and rather shocked how things have played out. If there was a vote of confidence over Tusk (the PM)  in the next week....I'd only give him a 50-50 chance of surviving the vote.  

My Final Five Thoughts On Poland Coup Failure

 1.  Its just odd...I watched a good bit of video of the riot-police at the court building.  None of the helmets had numbers....none of the jackets had numbers.  

Explanation? I suspect they were training-school 'kids' for the police.  

2.  Judge Anna Korwin-Piotrowska....the gal who tried to establish herself as the chief of the court....without any valid status?

I would suggest that she will lose her law license within six weeks....admit to stress issues...enter some clinic, and never have charges drawn up.

3.  Tusk, the PM?  I think he will stick around and be a 'face' for the coup.....as the election campaign starts up early next year. Compared to the last election...Tusk probably loses nearly half of the votes as anticipated.

4.  Meme of the year?  There's a 8-second shot....President is entering the court-building and Korwin-Piotrowska (the lawyer gal) is attempting to block him and say she's in charge.  President merely pushes her out of the way like a bag of marsh-mellows. 

5.  Who planned this?  Totally unknown, and may never be known.

The Oddest Three Scenarios For The Poland Crisis?

 I've spent two hours this AM....reading through commentary by Poles, and non-Poles...over the coup-attempt. Some weird beliefs.

First....one guy suggested that Putin rigged up this crisis....getting Tusk and crew convinced that they could run successful coup....then fail the coup.....getting the President of Poland into a better overall position....to somehow benefit a pro-Putin landscape.

Second, someone suggested that the President of Poland was never on the plane to Africa....that he knew ahead of time of the coup.

Finally, someone suggested this planned by the President....quietly....to get Tusk convinced it was a great idea, and now screw up the election chances for Tusk and crew for October 2027.   

Five Thoughts Over Poland 'Chaos/Crisis'

1. This AM....I noted that Deputy Inspector General of Police Tomasz Michułka got mentioned.  He's the police 'boss'....who apparently had the riot police units to be issued automatic weapons against Polish civilians...if they defended the Constitutional Tribunal (court).

I just DON'T see police being that pumped-up to shoot anyone.  

2.  At the end of this crisis....probably by the middle of Saturday....there's likely fifty-odd gov't folks (politicians and government bosses)....who have to exit Poland in a hurry.  I don't see Germany that eager to accept them.  

3.  If you asked me over public perception.....maybe 25-percent are full-up charged-up....to have a coup like this.  Opposing them (anti-coup)....is probably 25-percent.

So then you have fifty-percent of folks....who shake their head.  They don't have an understanding of how a banana-republic-like situation developed like this, and see Tusk as dimwitted for approving this plan.

4.  A lot of non-Poles around Europe....are viewing this coup-like situation and wondering....where did this all start, and is there history of this?

Well....Feb of 1981....the last coup in Europe (Spain).  It was also a failed effort.

5. Politically, Tusk has damaged his party and it's image....a lot.  Oct 2027.....next parliament election.  

31 Oct 2026: Germany/Europe: 6 Stories

 1.  Natural gas goals for 'storage'....in Germany....80 percent for most storage facilities....however....45 percent for the facilities in Bad Lauchstädt, Frankenthal, Hähnlein, Rehden, Stockstadt and Uelsen.

If this were a moderate winter....there's enough.  If it's a severe winter....there's issues brewing.

2.  Poland.  Fairy dramatic 'theater' unfolding.  National Court building surrounded by police, under orders from PM Tusk, and his appointed 'supreme-judge'....while the President was flying for a visit to some African country.  Word gets to the President....he turns the plane around, and lands in Warsaw.

Tusk's judge basically gave a 30-day time-out on the President/VP.  

Police?  They allowed the President to enter the court building, and so far...nothing much else has occurred (8 AM news).

What I'd suggest....police for the most part...vote right-of-center and I doubt that this was laid out in full detail yesterday afternoon.  I expect most police to depart for home, and Tusk's 'theater-antics' unravel over most of the day.  Whether he stays in Poland or has to flee....I'm of the mind that he's not likely to stay.

3.  31 Oct....riots in Germany?  There's a lot of hype....French-stye riots likely to start up today.  

4.  Some issue brewing....false German language test certificate now noted.  Migrants paying for the fake copy....to get 'status'.....but can marginally speak/read/write German.

5.  VW is apparently halting development of the E-Golf vehicle....saying they can't really afford to go further.

6.  German, Canada and Norway....financing Patriot missiles (500) for Ukraine.  Amount of cost? 2.1-billion Euro.

30 Oct 2026: Germany: 9 Stories

 1.  Linke Party 'boss' from Berlin-City operations....gave a talk, and basically admitted that a fair amount of local control/support....is directed from Hamas enthusiasts, and things might be seen as 'damaging' (my word, not hers).

2.  ZDF's (public TV, Channel 2 in Germany) closes down it's humor show....'Royale' on 18 Dec 2026....after six years.

To be honest....out of the five episodes that I've watched over the period (maybe around 190 produced)....about 80-percent of the humor of the show was driven off of politics....mostly slamming either AfD or the CDU-CSU folks....occasionally against the Greens or SPD.

The harsh reality is that the fan-base has downsized a good bit over the last year or two.

3.  Former German President Joachim Gauck gave a interview....blunt talk....basically saying that Germany can't continue to finance the welfare-state if the economy is such a poor state (as currently). 

4.  WELT article this AM....Gen-Z crowd gets nothing.  Dan Alphonso writes a pretty straight-forward piece....that all this control and climate policy demanded by the youth of Germany....has resulted in prices for energy and lifestyles expanding....everything costing more.  These youth....now in their mid-to-late 20's....now grumbling....how did this all happen?

5.  Berlin police say they are prepared for demonstrations/riots for tomorrow....suggestion is that France riots will occur in metro areas of Germany.

6.  Deutschland Card (monthly Bahn/bus ticket) on 1 January 2027....goes to 66.80 Euro a month.  Only thing you can't use it for....travel on ICE (high speed rail).  Still a pretty good deal.

7.  Audi-Germany says their yearly profit at this point....is 95-million Euro for 2026.  Roughly 90-percent less than time of 2025.  Crisis talk openly discussed.

8.  N-TV piece.....German hospitals in a financial crisis.  Some expect reduction in staff to be the only way ahead.

9.  I was in Wiesbaden yesterday....two hours walking around the shopping district.  Got approached by the youngest beggar ever....some teenage gal (figure 13/14 years old).  

Germany And Suicides

 2025 was a record year (at least over 25 years)....with 11,000 reported.

The female numbers?  Up 18-percent over 2024.

Half of all numbers....were folks 65-and-older.  Men made up almost three-quarters of the numbers.

Cause or trigger.....not fully understood.

If you were asking me....there's simply a large number of retired folks with crappy pensions, and no way to survive.