Frank-Dialogue Chatter

This AM....I read through Brit news, and noted that British Army Chief, General Sir Roly Walker, spoke up and said that political leaders in the Kingdom.....will soon begin a "frank dialogue".....with Brit folks about preparing for war.

I pondered upon this.  

He didn't say 'who' the war-party was....nor give some hint of frank-dialogue.  He didn't really say what preparation for war entailed.  

If I were Putin....I'd call up and ask if I could help the UK in some fashion.  Maybe offer to pretend to invade....just so Brits had something to focus upon.

The general making up something?  Well....you can't be sure about that idea.

Even if the PM said invasion was likely.....then what?  I'm guessing only a quarter of the population....including women....would be willing to pick up arms, and go to killing invaders.  I suspect one out of three Brits might welcome the invaders (suggesting Russians might be a better fit for leadership positions).

If some French or German general had spoken to some threat like this?  I might suggest only 10-percent of society would take them serious, but you wouldn't dare issue guns to anyone....out of fear that they'd try to take over the country before the invaders arrived.

We live in odd times.

Asylum Chatter

Going back to July/August....in Ceuta (the enclave of Spain in Morocco)....a bunch of folks (mostly guys) crossed over and started asylum applications.

So out of the 80,000 applications noted so far....around 70-percent say that they are primarily gay, and deserve asylum in Spain because they can't be accepted in Morocco.

I paused over this.

Roughly 56,000 guys....gay.

Oddly, 24,000 applied for asylum but proclaiming they were normal-regular-non-gay.

Spain asking for proof?  No....no one ever goes to sustain their version of reality.

Male population in Morocco?  Around 19-million.  So if you use the 70-percent number....it means that Morocco probably has a male gay population of roughly 13-odd-million.  Just something to think about.

This France 'Mess'

 Couple of observations:

First....it's a odd crowd on rioting....combination of students, left-wing agenda 'players', and ethnic non-French.  To some degree....the Macron gov't has some fear of the group (not readily explained).

Second, as for why students hyped-up the rioting?  Well...the French government supposedly spends too little to educate the children of migrants (that's the general French media message). But oddly....France spends between anywhere between two and 200 times more per student than the nations from which its migrants come.

Third, while all this rioting and destruction goes on....the French economy is marginally in any position to handle more taxes to fund the school BS.

Fourth, if you pay attention....most all of the rioting occurs in metro-cities.  Small towns/villages?  Zero action.

Fifth, some folks have started to ask if schools in metro areas stay in closed-down status....at what point do you consider the school-year worth dissolving, and telling those students to start over in 2027 (fall)?

Sixth?  No cross-over activity in Germany?  No.  I would suggest that if you had any riot behavior....German police would detain you....asking your parents to show up (if you were under 18), and face a judge for illegal rioting/protesting.

Topic of Natural Gas

 I saw this graph-chart today.....nat-l gas production....Russia and EU members....from 1990s to today.

So it's odd story....up until 2000....the EU out-produced on natural gas....then things shifted.

My theory on what happened?  I think Putin looked at the dynamics, and paid off in some way....various 'experts' for EU countries....to lessen production, and count on 'cheap' Russian natural gas to fill the void.

By 2010, Putin held all the 'aces' and EU countries were trapped.

The EU 'Unbanning' Gas/Diesel Cars?

 It was a shocker of a week.....the French-German effort was successful.....dissolving the ban in 2035 to dump gas/diesel 'new' cars.  Both countries were in a crappy futures market over the car market.

Where things went wrong?  I'd suggest three problems.

First, Chancellor Merkel's agenda to just FORCE a German ban on gas/diesel cars....wasn't widely supported by the public.  Presently.....2026.....around 89-percent of all cars registered...are gas/diesel....remaining number are hybrid-E-car types.

I don't think there was ever a clear understanding by the politicians (from left and right) over the technology, public reaction, or reality of car sales.

Second, various car companies in Germany spent billions (each) to have models ready to go.  They mostly all thought by 2020 to 2025....public attention would be massive (it didn't happen).  The money spent?  So far, that's not much to show for the effort.

Third, oddly enough....the Chinese reviewed the German technology...copying bit-by-bit.  They didn't have to invest the money that the German companies did.

So this unbanning.....is there time to reverse the damage?

I'm not really buying into it.  Both French and German companies were geared to E-car tech, and there's probably a funding problem in developing gas/diesel tech cars for the future. 

Seven Observations

 1.  Maybe up until 20 years ago....there was only one subject/topic that you needed to avoid with Germans....that being Nazis/the war.  

I'd say today....the list of topics is getting near twenty-to-thirty (you should avoid any situation where AfD is brought up....don't discuss taxation crap....depending on the party---you might want to avoid a positive-negative talk about public TV or TV-taxes....etc).  

2.  The sugar tax is coming....1 July 2027.  What this amounts to?  A 1-liter Coke bottle (Rewe grocery) currently runs 1.59 Euro....when the full impact occurs....it'll be near 1.91 Euro....but you have VAT-up the increase (figure 6 cents)....so the bottle of Coke will be 1.97.  Figure 2027/2028 inflation?  A one-liter container will be 2.00 to 2.05.

Sugared-up ice tea (2 liter) will go to around 2.50 to 3.00 Euro....depending on the grocery.

I brought this up to the wife (German)....she's of the belief....for 90-percent of people, nothing will change.  They will drink sodas at the same rate, and pay the tax.  The marginally-getting-by folks?  She thinks they'd have to cut sugar drinks by 50-precent.  

Safe at this point?  Beer and wine.  Maybe some folks will flip from sugar-drinks to beer.

3.  Over the past week....lot of hype over the coalition of Merz...collapsing....with the SPD exiting.

Some belief for a short period....a minority-government might run (say for 3 to 6 months).

If I were speculating....the collapse would likely occur by early January, after the SPD chooses it's new leadership.

4.  New poll done in the NRW state.

So CDU would win....but they've lost around 8 points.  If the poll is accurate....CDU has to partner in a state-coalition with the SPD, and Greens....meaning highly diluted CDU brand in leadership.

Cause for this?  AfD is carving into CDU votes.

Election?  Still 7 months away.

5.  First indicators of student demonstrations (similar to France)....seen at a school in Berlin.  Demonstration size?  A pitiful 100.  But they blocked entry for everyone else.  They say more money needs to flow into the school.

6.  Some chatter starting up at the EU....debate over the right-to-asylum.  

7.  Long-term winter weather chatter for Germany?  Mostly....the weather guys are suggesting a more-than-normal mild winter....fairly wet (meaning rain....not snow).

My Love-Hate View Of DHL

 DHL is the German postal-delivery service....mostly for packages/bulk stuff.  For me....it is the alternative to Amazon-delivery.  I'm not saying I hate Amazon-delivery....but I have had enough poor situations....that I'm willing to accept DHL.

In my village, they added the 'boxes'....about 3 minutes walking from the house....there's a pick-up point.  You show your smart-phone screen....a barcode, and a door pops open.  It was advertised in the beginning....as easy.  On my first trip over....it failed.  My delivery eventually got reversed, and sent back.  

I went to the local post office to quiz the gal there.  She (being German)...admitted she knew almost nothing about the 'boxes', the barcode crap, or the tech involved. Not to openly be critical over German women, but I get the impression that 75-percent of them are tech-limited....meaning tech-crap barely works.

I would eventually find a YouTube video that explained everything in simplicity....oddly done by a Indian-guy.

So for a year or two....things worked with the 'boxes'.  Then the next issue came up.  They upgraded the App, and I wasted two-to-three hours....getting it to sync-up with the 'boxes'.  

This past week, the wife (German) came to me....her packages are being sent to the 'boxes' and NO email comes from DHL to get her to pick up the stuff.

I thought....simple enough...log in and check on the account.  Well...the App won't allow a log-in, without a pin number, and it refuses to send to the wife's email address.

Me?  I thought....send a customer complaint.  After three days....they (DHL) responded. Basically, they wanted her to call in....request a delete on her account, and start from scratch....whole new DHL account.

Yeah....as much as they convey this should be a simple task.....a simple App.....they prove over and over that it's prone to fail.  

This Starlink-EU Chatter

 Starlink....a Elon-'monster'....has basically carved out one-party only business.  So in the last week or two....the EU stood up and said 'no-more'.  They intend to fast-track Project Bromo, a joint venture by Airbus, Thales, and Leonardo....compete against Starlink.

Problems?  I gazed at the agenda.

There's to be arguments within the EU over where the build will occur, and jobs are divided up. 

Then there's a funding problem....where Airbus will probably ask for direct EU funding for several years.

Will European folks be given a decent rate for the Bromo-product (cheaper than Starlink)?  Some folks laugh over that idea.

Will some mandate force you into using Bromo....instead of Starlink?  So far....no one suggests that.

After pondering this a while....I asked myself....how long before a Chinese version of Starlink is parked over Europe, and cheap rates to Bromo or Starlink?