Q-and-A: Three Things

 1.  Is the general public kinda demanding a switch-out on Chancellors in Germany?

I'd say for 6 months....majority (probably up to 60-to-70 percent) feel that Merz can't get the job done....meaning fixing the economy and saving jobs.

The leading CDU replacement (within the party)?  Well....if he is selected and this replacement occurs....I'd give this guy 6 months before he's led to the door and finished off.

There's simply not any bright 'star'.

2.  State elections in Germany stating to matter?

I'd say over the next 18 months...it's a big deal.  

3.  All this crap from the 'end' of the Scholz SPD-led coalition....lighting the fire to this dismal trend?

You can make this connection.....but there's a trend going on for the economy...over 30 years of decisions....where bad decisions were made, and  led to consequences.

31 May 2026: Germany: 3 Things

 1.   New party 'boss' for FDP, Wolfgang Kubicki.  Party has a 5-year trend (downward) on votes....currently at 3-percent on polling.  Belief is that Kubicki can get more attention....getting them up around 6-to-7 percent (enough to get seats).  Party is pro-business....less on taxes.  If they get more votes....likely taking mostly from CDU or SPD.

Curious thing about Kubicki....he often get invitations to ARD/ZDF public forum shows  (I'd guess at least 6 times a year).

2.  N-TV piece.....Germany short on 2,000 prosecutors.

3.  Some hint from the Pentagon....when they suggest 'closures' or drawdowns....it'll occur pretty fast.

Explaining German Heat, AC Anxiety, And Reality

 Upon arrival in early 1978 to West Germany...being from Alabama...the 1978 summer for me was 'mild'.  Yeah...it did get up into the 34 C (93 F) range....but it wasn't that bad.

Anyone having AC? No.  Literally nowhere did  you find AC hooked-up/running.  Did Germans dress ultra casual?  Oh yeah.

Around 1984/1985 when I returned....same attitude, but less clothing and fans set up everywhere.

Around 1990s when I returned again?  Well....now folks were kinda engaged to not suffer....AC units (single room units) were selling.   Around 2001, I noted various Air Force folks were buying 400 Euro units.  Their German neighbors got 'weak' and they bought into the idea.

Around 2015....my German wife finally 'allowed' me to buy a 400 Euro unit...with stipulations.  First, it had to be 33 C or more (91.4 F).  The windows to the house....had to be closed at 11, and the AC unit went on at noon.....for a max of eight hours (to save energy).  Finally, by 10 PM....all windows in the house had to be opened....to allow the summer cooling-off effect to occur.

So....here's the weather talk.

Over a 10 year period....there are typically five years of moderate heat (say 20 days of 33 C or MORE....spread out over June, July and August.  You might have 2 days here....4  days there....1 day here....5 days there.  The rest of the summer....mostly 30 C downward to 18 C (86 F down to 65 F).  

The two harsh years of the ten?  This is where you have 30 to 45 days of full-blast heat....going for 10 days straight (minimum).  People talk about this....as the end of the world.  2003 was one of those memory years.

Then you  have the ultra moderate years (three out of ten)....where you have one single day of 32 C/higher in a month, and the rest are mostly 18 C to 25 C. 2024 was one of those ultra moderate years.

Fronts come in, move, and leave.  Occasionally....like 2003, the fronts 'stall'....where you end up with two to three weeks of miserable heat.  It's not some demon like 'climate-change'.....it's a lingering front that simply stalls.

In my village (well-to-do crowd)....I'd take a guess that 75-percent of folks have a single-unit AC device.  Older folks?  No.  

German hotels now with AC units?  Big-name places have AC.....which you pay  upwards to 150 Euro a night for the 'extras'.  

Offices having AC?  My wife's company has a building with AC built in.  But I'd take a guess that two-thirds of businesses have only fans...no AC. The Auslander-Buro (office for migrants/Green Card).....they are without AC units.

My 'demon'?  When it's a harsh summer and the 7th consecutive day of 35 C....trying to watch the nightly news and they desperately want you to fight the climate-change demon....I have to leave the room.

The best story?  My wife has a gym-partner who owns a 1890s house, and deep about 6 feet below the surface....there's a room that her husband has 'set-up'....where the room never gets above 23 C (naturally chilled).  The lady will escape around 10 PM, and comfortably sleep.

30 May 2026: Germany: 6 Things

 1.  The swapping out of the Chancellor idea.

There are basically three scenarios.

First, do nothing and keep Merz.  This would likely cause a continued downward spiral for the CDU and SPD parties....and by the next election (early 2029)...the CDU-CSU-SPD totals would be in the  combined 25-to-30-percent range.

Second, dump Merz and bring in Hendrik Wüst (Premier-President of the state of NRW). He's intellectual enough, and would likely be agreeable. On resolving economic problems....don't expect much. Next election results?  CDU-CSU likely in the 20 percent range...mostly because of economic woes.

Third, dump Merz and bring in Bavarian Premier-President Soder.  Roughly the same end-result....I might say next election results are in the 20-to-24 percent range.

So it doesn't matter....with any plan...the CDU weakens  itself.

2.  The German federal government is planning to participate in a new North-South Commission.  I had to look up the purpose.

It's mostly a group of 20 to 30 countries....well-to-do types and economic poor types.

Who the Germans are putting on for representation? Former Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

I'm not saying it's worthless....but it just seems like a media-output machine.

3. I got to reading a commentary yesterday, and the key 'pitch'....some things starting to add up....making the Merz-coalition resemble the 1920s Weimar-Republic.

This Weimar-period....roughly a dozen years....never seemed to lift-off or get ahead. Some folks feel the same in 2026.

4.  Mercosur trade deal.....yesterday....I came across a delivery of Brazilian coffee deal.

63 tons of green coffee from Brazil had arrived in Poland…got inspected.... damaged beans and live parasites inside.   

5.  EU says it'll be sanctioning the Chinese internet platform Temu with the help of the Digital Services Act. 

Reaction by China?  Not yet...but by the middle-of-June....I expect China to stage  a EU-meeting.

6.  I sat this week and was watching a SWR(regional public network) news piece (for the Pfalz state).

Some wife got stabbed by the husband 43 times.  I asked my German wife....where this craziness comes from....she responded it's not a German couple. Yeah, what SWR left out of the story....the couple (both)...were Turks.

Yeah, my wife has developed a perception on the news....if it sounds crazy....it's not a German involved.

7. I watched five segments of the ARD/ZDF public TV news....where they wanted me to know of six heat-deaths via drowning.....which led back to global warming.

I asked AI about this...from a 1930s prospective.  From 1930 to 1940.....the number of drownings per year in  Germany....ranged from 3,000 to  3,600. Curiously, prior to 1913....when funding came up to have swimming courses....the average was in the 5,000 per year range.  The past 20 years?  Well....it goes from 300 to  500 deaths per year from drowning.

So, I asked AI...what were the chief causes of drowning. Grok pointed out....the warmer the weather....the more of a 'magnet' lakes are  for cooling off.....so it's  very unlikely to drown in Germany when the temp's are 15 to 20 C....very likely when it's 30-plus.

But then, we come to the 'other' factors: Common aggravating factors....like alcohol use (impairs judgment/balance; involved in up to ~70% of adult recreational water deaths), fatigue/exhaustion, inadequate supervision (especially of kids), overconfidence in swimming ability, and not wearing life jackets. (CDC)

Quote of the Week

 Last night (Thursday).....via the Lanz chat-forum show....semi-retired CDU politician Roland Koch commented on the coalition decline going on, and said: "We are in a captivity with the SPD."

Meaning....the CDU-CSU folks can't really act on any of their goals/ambitions.

I won't disagree, but this is how the 50-percent-plus coalition 'handicap' works.

The 'Cheap' Russia-West Germany Natural Gas Deal

 The West German–Soviet (Russian) natural gas deal was signed on February 1, 1970.

Who  signed?  Well....it wasn't Willy Brandt (the Chancellor).  It was done by West German Economics Minister Karl Schiller and Soviet Foreign Trade Minister Nikolai Patolichev.  This was part of Willy Brandt’s Ostpolitik policy of détente with the Soviets and simply the next leg (already with  Austria in  1968 and Italy in 1969.

The pipe?  Well....West German of course.

Who financed the whole thing?  A group of 17 West German banks (led by Deutsche Bank) provided a long-term loan...6-percent interest if you were curious....on what the Soviets needed.  

Risky?  Credit risks were underwritten by the West German government’s export-credit agency.

The end piece?  Throughout the the era of 1970 to 2022....it powered German industry. When the invasion occurred and the Germans ended the 'deal'....that really started the collapse of German economy.

29 May 2026: Germany: 7 Things

1.   CDU politician openly offered his opinion: Care-dependent individuals should sell their house if necessary.

If you wonder why older Germans are less inclined to vote CDU....yeah, this would be a big reason.

2.  About two months ago....German story came  up....Bundestag (CDU-led coalition) wanted to 'vet' future home-buyers (suggesting if you were right-wing....the states could deny you purchasing a property).

Well....it came out yesterday....that draft-law....dropped.   Public attention got pretty negative.

3.  Timmy-the-whale-warning?  Dutch authorities are still figuring what to do over the dead whale body.  Warning yesterday....if you near the body, and it finally 'explodes'....it could kill you.

4.  Starts in June in Germany....if you produce solar energy....you can 'sell' it to your neighbor. 

5.  They put the tip of my region in the 'supercell-warning' area for Saturday.....heavy rain, hail and tornados possible.

6. WELT article points out....majority of voters now 'right-of-center'....with the coalition designed in some form to be left-of-center.

7. Went out to eat in mid-town Wiesbaden at 5 PM yesterday.

What you notice....pubs, restaurants and cafes....very active.  Lot of people consuming wine/beer.   Fashion trend in turbo-mood.  Obvious...people are spending money.   Happy-hour concept  (locally at 2  PM to 5 PM) being developed/pushed....with .3-liter beers at 2 Euro each or half-liter at 3 Euro.

Things seem more active now.....comparable to 2019 (last year prior to Covid).

AfD Topic

 Germany's AfD leader Alice Weidel said this week.....she wants the EU abolished and power returned to individual European nations.

Hot priority with Germans? Not really.

I've seen various polls over the past five years....it's never more than 30-percent of German society who wants the German participation in the EU dissolved.

I suspect....if you approached a hundred adults in Germany....they might agree...the EU can be reckless and out-of-control on occasion, but if you asked them to rank this as a problem to fix....it's not in their top 500 issues.

Having lived around West Germany in the 1970s/1980s, and remembering the various border problems/issues....you need something like the EU....but you need to limit their days at 'work'....keeping sessions to just 60-to-90 days a year.   You don't need them looking for fresh new problems to solve.

Poor choice of stuff to offer AfD-voters?  I can think of a dozen things which might be more appreciated.