Yep....9:45, ARD, Channel 1, forum show.
Chancellor Merz will be quizzed. Basically....he needs to sell the CDU-CSU-SPD program, and hopefully....Caren Miosga (the host) doesn't ask a lot of difficult questions, or trip him up.
I'll just say it...if he trips up or does some crazy talk.....polling over the next week will drop by 1-to-2 points.
Miosga? Well.....she's fairly bright/clever, and I'd say she won't be wasting her 20-odd questions on dopey stuff.
Yeah...make-or-break point.
Someone picked up on CDU-CSU chatter this AM....that some elements are exploring the idea of a minority-government....meaning NO coalition.
Operationally possible? You'd have to count on some type of support by the lesser parties...meaning that AfD probably figures into half of the proposals going on.
BS? Basically....Chancellor Merz is on a negative course, and a fair number of CDU-supporters....aren't that pleased with the SPD concepts/drafts.
If this were to fail....you'd see a fresh new election by spring of 2027 (my belief). For some reason....I see it crazy enough that it might last more than two years.
Is it even something that the Chancellor would support? Unknown.
The purpose of the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition...after the failure/collapse of the SPD-FDP-Green coalition/government....was to anchor-up the economy....keep taxation growth under control, and stabilize jobs.
So...the results over 15 months:
Aldi Süd (Grocery) is cutting 1200 jobs.
MAN is cutting 2300 jobs.
Bosch is eliminating 13000 jobs.
Voith is eliminating 2500 jobs.
VW is eliminating 50,000 jobs.
Daimler Truck is eliminating 5000 jobs.
It's safe to say that whatever problem that triggered the SPD-FDP-Green coalition to fail....has continued on track into 2026.
Whatever changes were supposed to occur with Chancellor Merz, and the CDU-'magic'....has yet to show itself.
Starting 1 May....the Frankfurt Hauptbahnhof (main station)....booze control goes into effect. NO consumption of alcohol within the boundary of the station.
You can still buy beer, wine, booze....but you can't drink it or walk around with a open-container within the train-station.
Reason? Well....mostly goes to safety aspects....too many drunks.
In my hanging-around-Frankfurt years....I probably crossed through the station a thousand-odd times. On a Friday or Saturday night....you'd observe dozens of drunks. Most were happy-types...not causing trouble. The past decade? Between drugs and booze....you see weekly police-reports about incidents.
This turning into a magnet for cop-trouble? Yeah.
I was at Bitburg when the closure announcement was made. Within two to three weeks....the exit plan was laid out.
Various issues (like your assignment process, handling of vehicles/assets, etc) took several months to settle.
But I'd say that people were already exiting the base six months after the announcement. At the 12th month....probably 50-percent of the base was 'closed'.
By the 18th month...it was mostly done.
So when this Presidential order comes....with the end-game plan laid out....you can expect 'closure' by the end of 2027.
The beginning-point for local German authorities? Well...what to do with the turned-in property? I would expect all of 2027 to be a debate-period....finding new purposes for the property.
There's a lot of harsh realities around this....there's a property in eastern Wiesbaden....which is in it's 6th year of debate.....with locals in disagreement with the city planners over re-use.
1. Timmy-the-whale update: He was loaded onto a barge, and is presently entering the North Sea....where they will 'dump' him.
Looking at things....I'd say it's a 10-percent chance that Timmy will return within two weeks.
Theater-like show? RTL TV last night did a 30-minute 'show' over the Timmy business. The minute they named him....it went overboard.
2. The Berlin Young Socialists (JUSOS.....the youth wing of the SPD Party) says that they want to abolish marriage. They apparently will submit a draft paper to this effect at the SPD state party conference.
What they say? “Marriage serves the chauvinistic, capitalist nation-state as an instrument for enforcing misogynistic, queerphobic, classist, and racist policies.”
This meeting comes up in a week.
I read through the material.....they seem to say that civil marriage creates "patriarchal power structures" and holds back people's freedom and self-determination "through its claim to permanence."
People already in a marriage? They'd get a 'free' ticket to continue......new folks would just register a partnership, or deregister when 'done'.
SPD adapting this? NO.....I'm pretty convinced that more than 75-percent of the public thinks this is a joke.
3. President Trump says a exit-plan for troop reduction in Germany is on the table....being worked out.
All, or just a 25-percent cut? No one says.
My bet? Most all units are given a 12-to-18 month exit plan....keeping one single base/post (either Stuttgart, Wiesbaden or Ramstein). There....a EUCOM headquarters modified unit will exist....probably a 3-star with a staff of 2k to 3k personnel. If something occurred to require US-based forces....that staff would lead the build-up/organization.
German gov't grumbling? Lets be honest....the Greens, SPD and Linke Party will be rather happy of the exit. AfD will avoid grinning....but they also will be happy.
The areas of the big loss? Ramstein, Spangdahlem, and local Army locations....will see a economic decline....some more....some less.
4. Just an odd thing you notice. Soder (the CSU Party 'boss' and Premier-President of Bavaria).....gave his talk on the Monday night forum (very impressive)....and was cleanly shaven (he's had a rough beard for 2 years).
Yeah, I'd say that as popularity goes with Merz....Soder is now the leading guy to take over if Merz exits.
5. VW profits for 1st quarter of 2026.....down by 26-percent.
Well....the draft for the current German "sugar tax" (or rather "Zuckerabgabe"/sugar levy) ......is about a planned levy on sugary soft drinks (like Pepsi, Coke, lemonade, iced tea), set to start in 2028.
NOTE....it's not a broad tax on all sugar or sweets. It's strictly about sweetened beverages.
The government approved the plan as part of a bigger health insurance reform to fight obesity/diabetes. Yes, by the way...that BIG hole in the in statutory health funds (GKV).....that revenue would fill it.
So you wonder about the amount?
The ballpark amount (what they say)....450 million Euro per year in additional revenue.
The catch? Some folks believe....that as you increase the price....30 to 32 cents per can/bottle....folks will ask for sugar-free versions....and lessen use over time.
Using their figures....a 12-pack of Coke (with sugar)...would have around 3.84 Euro in sugar-tax cost.
My belief? Consumption levels will 'survive' the first 6 months....to the level where you realize that the 40-odd sodas per month cost you 15 Euro more. If you were on the poverty-level....that's 15 Euro you can't afford pay.
So the first folks to quit? Poverty-and-welfare class.
But I'll make this prediction.....some people will flip to sugar-free drinks avoiding the tax....but having some chemistry-wise gal....describe the formula for adding sugar to the drink....to get the right taste.
My own taste? I've quit most sugar drinks since 2010....drinking a rare soda on the plane or in the airport. The non-sugar sodas? Crap....I've tried probably 15 different types since 2010....with all of them non-tasty.
Forsa, the polling folks....asked the German public to grade Chancellor Merz...with the option....are you satisfied with him...yes or no.
15-percent said 'YES'.
83-percent said 'NO'.
Yeah, on a scale of bad news....1-to-10....it's probably a '7'.
Why so many 'no'? I'd say it goes to three issues. First, there's nothing much impressive that the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition has done since day one. Second, there's a bad karma landscape left from the SPD-FDP-Green coalition...remember that Scholz-guy? Third, his chief selling point....was that he'd get the economy back in order....well, that has yet to really happen.
All of this setting up a chaotic period from this fall....to fall of 2027....with various state elections? Yeah.
But you can say one thing positive....there's just not anyone from the CDU-CSU group to impress people as a replacement. You also can say....no one from the SPD, or Greens...impresses the public as a replacement character.
So this remarkably bad news piece doesn't change much of anything? Yeah. That's the weird part of the story.
