When The Ukraine-Russia War Ends......

 Putin has two central issues: finding manpower for what used to exist in Russia, and having the economic strength to rebuild tanks, artillery, and combat equipment.

For the most part, if you believe the past four decades of Russian census-taking  was wildly inaccurate.....the next fifty years of Russian manpower will be utterly crap, and depend a great deal on attracting non-Russians to come in and replace the dead.

But the equipment problem becomes a comedy of sorts.

Mixed into the requirements....you have to figure that hundreds of guys want to be on the receiving end....taking 30-percent of the cost of each tank or helicopter....as their profit.  Some might be hoping for 50-percent.

So I expect the first decade to be a challenge....where dozens of folks are dragged in for execution...on profit-taking, and various programs are halted because so many took bribes/extra-profits.

This era?  Well....likely to be forty-plus years and have Putin's name attached to a great degree.

Q-and-A

 1.  All that German chatter last week....if you were from age 18 to 45 and German male.....needing 'permission' to be outside of Germany for 90-plus days....suddenly quiet?

Well....yeah, the chief of the Bundeswehr (German Army)....wrote a waiver and said it's NOT in effect.  I should mention here....he's SPD, and the number one candidate for the 2029 Chancellor election.  

2.  Gas prices dropping?

Today, around noon....it's expected to be near 2.05-to-2.07 in most places....very dramatic drop.  As long as peace talks continue in Pakistan with the US/Iran....it'll go this way.  By Sunday....I'd tank up....believing this peace-game won't last.

3.  Germans getting a lot of BS on the war?

I'd say from the Iranians...yeah, there's a campaign of misinformation going on, and journalists are trying to get a message out that the normal sources at the Pentagon....won't talk to them.

4.  How much has Germany made off pumped-up gas-tax revenues in the past month?

Well....the calculation that I saw on Focus....says half-a-billion Euro.  The Finance Ministry is fairly 'gleeful' but hoping folks don't ask questions.  If this were to go on for another 4 to 6 weeks?  I'd guess it hits 1-to-1.5 billion extra Euro.

5. 'Blood-rain' coming?

It's a odd weather development....there's a African dust-storm believed to arrive around Saturday night....with a rainy front from the Atlantic.   So if you live in Germany....you will notice some odd reddish coating on your car by Monday.

6. FDP Party has new leadership.....threatening the CDU in  some ways?

It's an odd 'play'.   Kubicki is the new party boss of the FDP, and the normal voters  of the party (center-center group.....anti-tax is their general offering)....has Merz and the CDU worried.  The typical guy who'd vote for FDP....is probably a CDU voter.  

Presently, the FDP is polling 4-percent.  I might project in 6 months....them being near 7-percent, but taking the 3 points from the CDU or CSU (marginally holding at 25-percent....2 points down from AfD). 

8.  Trump talking NATO base closings?

Yeah....he can't  quit NATO (Senate has to approve)....but he can shift troops around. 

My closure guesses?  Moron and Rota (Spain) are likely closed.  Spangdahlem is likely on a shift deal (I'm betting they get moved to Poland).  Lakenheath and Mildenhall are on my 50-50 list....likely being discussed.  

Army-wise?  You might see most of the Army in Germany on a 2-to-3 year removal list....maybe going to the Pacific theater. 

I'm also likely to believe that nuke assets will be removed out of Europe and Trump saying Putin is not a threat to security.

9.  Iran-US peace talks?

Hot in the news this AM....extra-hard anti-US Iranians leaders....saying 'it-ain't-right' to talk up peace against the moderate Iranian leadership.  So  I'm of the mind...by Monday, this whole  thing is dissolved, and they go back to full-scale war.

Why Pakistan is so pro-peace?  Well....they took cash from UAE and Saudi Arabia....up around 8-to-10 billion dollars....to be a defense component for them, and they haven't shown any interest in getting involved in the war.  So the UAE and Saudi Arabia are saying....pay the money back.  If peace talks fail....Pakistan is financially screwed.

10. Significant banking crisis for Iran?

Oddly, no one talks much about it.

The last crisis (2008)....it was pretty bad for about 6 to 12 months.  Presently, it seems  worse.

This current crisis for Iran involves clear indicators of banking sector distress: at least one major bank failure, multiple others at high risk of collapse, widespread liquidity and insolvency problems, service disruptions, and heavy government intervention through money printing and forced mergers. 

Some of this is recent....some are simply long-term problems that haven't been fixed/resolved...added with U.S./international sanctions, corruption, mismanagement, non-performing loans (NPLs), and fiscal dominance by the state, and have been worsened by recent conflict.

The 'big' bank....Ayandeh Bank....large private lender tied to regime-connected figures.....got into failure issues with nearly $5 billion in losses.  Mostly came from bad loans, self-lending to insiders/cronies, and  Ponzi-like practices (offering high interest rates while relying on inflationary money printing).  They only got saved by being force into a merger into the state-owned Bank Melli. I should add here....based on the end-result....the government had to print new-and-fresh money to cover losses.

Added to the mess....since 'war' started....major state banks like Bank Melli and Bank Sepah have suspended services.  Cause?  Well....those Israeli and American folks were conducting cyberattacks.   Then they were both bombing key structures  of the banks.  Naturally.....bank accounts were apparently frozen for many customers.  I should note this....it's not just the typical customer affected....but the upper-level gov't bosses...stuck with no cash flow as well.

The mullahs may think the country can run for weeks without cash flow....but reality is something totally different.

Train Story

 You board a train, or bus....in Germany...without a ticket.   When the conductor/audit-guy comes around....he'll assess the situation, and normally (like  99-percent of the time)....he'll ask you for your 'pass' (ID) and write up a legal document....with a 60-Euro fine.

Typically, you pay the fine on the spot....if not, then there's a summons to pay the fine in some city court situation.   Then this document is entered for your first 'warning'.

If you were stupid and went onto a 2nd, 3rd, or 4th event....that's when the collection mounts, and you start to get a judge involved.  Roughly, on average....this  occurs around 7,000 to 9,000 occasions a year in Germany.  This is where a jail sentence is talked about (up to 1-year).

So....I noted yesterday....the Attorney-General of Germany (SPD member)....wants to decriminalize this stuff.....no court action....no jail.

How the repeat offenders will be handled?  Unknown.

Lot of facts missing?  Yeah.

I looked it  up.....German states (16 of them) cover the cost of this court action....adds up to around 250 million Euro a year roughly. Fair amount of man-hours involved.

I also noted.....out of Frankfurt....they've almost given up the court action....simply telling the repeat offenders to pay 60 Euro on each occasion.

A lot of the repeat offenders being non-German? This is suggested via social media, but no real facts to support the idea.

I've been on trains and buses where an audit occurred, and the guy/gal didn't have a ticket.  I'd say that in 50-percent  of the cases.....they were non-German. I also noted that in 95-percent of cases....it's a male-thing (women rarely ride 'free'). 

California

"California was like a hot blonde who never had to try, everyone showed up, the drinks kept coming, life was easy. But eventually, the blonde turns 45, the dates stop coming… and the ride is over."

-- Adam Carolla: 

Back in the early 1980s....I spent 2 weeks driving around the state...admitting it was the most perfect place I'd ever 'toured'.  I saw it all...Hearst Castle, SF, LA, Burbank, California Redwoods, Death Valley, etc.

Today?  Even if you offered me a $150k a year salary-job.....I'd refuse the offer.  It's like you had 9-year-old kids running the gov't.....determined to destroy it.

If The US Exits NATO.....Would I Worry Over Russia Invading?

 NO.

Thanks to this Ukraine adventure....Putin has diminished his military by 99-percent....they aren't a threat to  anyone much now.

Now....if the war ends (God knows when)....and the idiot-Germans start buying oil/natural gas from the Russians.....to rearm and rebuild their military, then  I'd say in about 20-to-25 years....they'd have the force (but not the manpower) to be a reasonable threat.

The manpower 'thing'?  Killing off around half the whole male population between age 20 and 30....pretty much guarantees a marginal threat....for probably four decades or more.

But Germans are unlikely to buy into the marginal Russia threat, and will be stupid enough to buy natural gas....thus helping them to rearm.

It's an amazing story.....Europe really doesn't need the US military.  

ARD Propaganda News Story

 I sat last night and watched the 8 PM Channel One/ARD news......with a lead-off story from Iran.

It was a 100-percent propaganda piece....wonderful Iranian school teacher....living alone  in a ultra modern Tehran apartment....no head scarf while walking outside....walking her dog.

I paused at the end....thinking....what exactly did I just watch?  Best answer.....Iran propaganda to convince dimwit-Germans that they are almost like folks in Tehran.  

And ARD unable to grasp the design of the propaganda?  That was the funny thing.  You'd suspect at least five 'bosses' or prime-journalists being in the approval process.  At least one of them should have stood up and said 'pure-propaganda'.

This AM....there must have forty folks who identified the piece and laid out heavy criticism over public-TV propaganda.

If you went to view Sunday night's news program...it's not there.  The 10:30 piece is there instead.

A Little Story

  Over the extended weekend (4 days)....in Stuttgart, Germany....two guys were in a easter egg hunt in a wooded area with a group.

So....they look around, and find....glass container that has a label....saying “Polonium-210” (noted radiological weapon).

They call the  cops.

Authorities are reviewing the container.

This was the substance known for the 2006 poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko, a former KGB and FSB officer turned whistleblower, who died after ingesting tea laced with the radioactive material in a London hotel.

Faked-up?  Maybe.

If it were real?  Well....you'd start to ask if some German deaths were a bit unusual.

The Supposed 'Deal'?

 UK independent MP Andrew Bridgen says....with limited facts....Iran struck some type of secret oil deal with France, Switzerland, Austria, Italy, and Spain, which lead to those nation closing airspace to US military operations in exchange for safe tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Proof?  None...so far.

I asked Grok (AI) to find facts....there just weren't any to present.

Evidence that some tankers got out without a threat?  Some tankers have left the Gulf region....but trying to say they belonged to some country.....well, there's no evidence.

If some deal were proven?  It'd present a major NATO problem, and be the beginning of the end.

Most of the EU on shaky oil reserves?   Yeah, there is this fact.

So  I'm giving the story on my BS-index (1-to-10)...a '8' at this point....nothing much true. Course....facts would change my ranking.