Q-and-A: Realities

 1.  On the Harry and Meghan saga 'plan'....what version are we up to presently?

I believe....if Meghan had started with 'plan-1'.....we've gone past 'plan-6' and this 'retreat' to the UK....is probably 'plan-7'.   And yes, there's likely to be a plan-8, plan-9, and plan-10.

2.  Merz gone in 2027 as Chancellor?

If there were a rock-solid replacement guy in the CDU....yes.  But presently.....I would argue that Merz is the best that they have to offer. (Note that I only suggested the CDU.....the CSU might have a better choice).

3.  2027 heat wave path.....allowing a gov't gift of AC-units for poverty folks?

It will not shock me if the SPD Party pushes the idea of poverty Germans getting 500 Euro for a small unit in 2027....then discovering that the grid price to run it....is massive.

4.  The typical average left-voter in Germany....flipping from SPD, to Greens/Linke?

If you lined up lefty-voters....say a hundred....only around 30 would go toward the SPD....with the 70 left....mostly leaning toward the Linke and Greens.  

The Germans Who Say They Will 'Leave' If AfD Wins

 It's an odd topic.

I would make a educated guess that around 5-percent of Germans walk around and occasionally say that if there is some national election and AfD wins....they will up-and-leave.

If you engage with them on this....asking where they intend to settle...you don't get a real answer.  Some might hint Austria or Greece....but you have AfD-like parties in those countries as well.

This being simply a BS-chat topic?  More or less.

In almost all EU countries now....there's some party like the AfD, and most gravitate toward issues with migration/immigration....which the majority of opposition parties have no real ability to control or resolve the issue.

This reaction....something like the US folks who said they'd leave the US if Trump won again (2024)?  Well....you can say that to some degree.  Some folks did try an exit, and based on chatter via social media....I'd say around 50-percent found the new country not as good as US-living.

22 August 2026: Germany: 7 Stories

 1.  I went to the Wiesbaden wine-fest (started last weekend) last night.  Three observations: Friday night crowd maxed-out....simply a ton of guests.  The security barriers were in place (2.5 million Euro worth...owned by the city)....with three police teams walking the parameter...making you feel safe.  Between the wife and I...on food and rink for 2.5 hours....spending near 110 Euro (hefty sum).

2.  2026 weather observation: It has been an ODD year.  From 1 Jan....two light sprinklings of snow....never really sticking.  Early end to cold weather.  Drought from mid-April on...only reversing in the past 7 days.  Lot of heat....probably 30 days of 34 C (93 F) or more. From 2nd week of August on....way cooler than normal (closer to a max of 24 C....75 F).  Heavy suspicion of early snowfall.  

3.  Mannheim-Kaiserslautern soccer game....afterwards, got rough.  Fans fighting.  Police say 35 of their cops were wounded/injured.

4.  Something on social media I noticed.  Some German clearing the house...came across a LIDL (German grocery operation) brochure from 11 years ago.

So....they noted the 11 items on the cover, with pricing of 11 years ago, and went to price them in 2026.  Almost all...had doubled or more....since 2015.  Key note....well...if you ask people about their salary levels...NO ONE has doubled their salary since 2015.  At best....people probably making around 10 to 20 percent more.  I might even say pension-wise (if you were retired)....you tend to get a 2-to-3 percent 'bump' each year.

5.  It got brought up...from Berlin....two young guys (age 18 both)....had serious charges pressed against them.  Both required a translator in the court.  So you'd assume they were migrants/guests?  No.....they were both German-born, and simply could not speak at a level to understand legal proceedings.  Both had survived the German school system, and never really 'participated'.  

6.  Schools across Germany started up.  Lot of chatter over cost of 'arming' each kid.  I noticed off social media some parent blasting the cost of a school bag....with ultra-cheap-looking bags still in the 40-odd Euro range, but for the super deluxe 'in-fashion' bag....it's closer to 300 Euro now.  If you add up the cost (without the bag business)....you would be spending near 200 Euro minimum (then you have to figure the PT-gear and new tennis shoes)

7. Rwanda is having talks with Germany....to be a 'guest-center' for deportees from Germany.  The way it looks.....x-number per year would be accepted....with Germany paying per-guest some sum of money.  

Lawsuit challenge?  100-percent chance.  

Who would likely go?  If you have a criminal record and shown no interest in integration....I suspect you'd get put on the Rwanda plane.

No idea how many a year would go....humble guess....minimum of 3,000.  From the two articles I read....some German official belief that they could make this 'deal' by the end of 2026. 

The Next Thing To Worry About

This AM.....story being run by NDR, WDR, and the Süddeutsche Zeitung....says that a 'cache' of pistols...has been found, and it leads to KGB/FSB 'agents'.

So if you piece this together....oddly, this was found in the summer of 2025, and its just now being openly discussed by the police

Found where?  Woods....near Brandenburg.

Big group?  No.....just two pistols/ammo.

Absolute proof?  Well....no.....it's assumed that it's the Russians.

Anyone arrested?  One guy....detained in Romania....so far.

The threat-story given?  Just that some type of assassination was possible.

Me skeptical?  You could go over to Leipzig and ask the four criminal clans about weapons, with them grinning and admitting they've got probably a hundred weapons hid around the region.

But here's the thing.....the Putin-threat keeps getting brought up.  1920s murders and assassinations?  There were dozens of folks killed in the interest of bringing 'change'.   

Germany Deport List

 I read through a ZEIT article today....saying for 2026....a total of 17,892 foreigners (on the deport list) had departed. 

What's left currently?  The federal government says (as of 1 July 2026)....there were 258,845 people in Germany who were ausreisepflichtig (obligated to leave the country).

The 10,000 Euro Expense Account Story

 Each guy/gal/other in the German Bundestag....gets 10,000 Euro a year for office expenses (meaning PC, laptop, printer, TAB, paper, cellphone, pens, notebooks, etc).

Someone sat down with the outflow of funds in the past year....oddly finding on average....at least 10 smart-phones a year....are bought individually. 

Explanation?  None given.

I pondered over this.  I worked with an American who lost or 'wrecked' three cellphones a year....for four years straight.  He was a pretty active guy....paddling a canoe....jogging in a lighted park after dark....biking weekly.  It would just happen....he'd show up at work...admit the loss, and go over at lunch to buy a new cellphone.

In the Bundestag case?  I would imagine that year after year....four-year period....you've had 50,000 Euro flow through the account....buying a pallet of paper....boxes of 60 ink-pens (the 12-Euro per pen-type made in Japan), and spending 1,000 Euro on a ultra-nice Samsung cellphone isn't a big deal.  

What type or model of smart-phone are they buying?  Unknown.

If you asked about this?  I would imagine they'd rather not discuss the matter.  But they say that they lug five phones around....one for important party-chat, one for their wife to call, one for journalistic chatter, one for their Russian/Chinese friend to contact, and one for their paramour-situation (love-interest, both guys/gals).

Them reselling over Ebay?  No...never....I just can't imagine some guy for the Green Party being this corrupted.

All of this adding up to 5-million Euro a year?  Well....it's best not to talk over that number.

My Perception

 1.  AC chatter.  We used to have a yearly program in the Air Force....called the 'one-hundred days of summer'....which the base safety officer was supposed to be hyped up and preventing chaos, injury, or death.

The safety officer was always a pilot....for which this was his additional duty, and 75-percent of his yearly evaluation.  I worked in a office with the guy who got stuck into the duty for a year.

Dehydration tips were almost a weekly thing.  At various staff meetings at the wing-level, the squadron-level, and division-level...it got hyped-up and made a big issue.

I look at the heat-wave business of Germany for 2026 and will admit....it was extremely hot for about 30 days this summer (probably 12 more than normal).  Having ten of these in a consecutive fashion?  Yeah...that probably was a big problem.

Would I go and buy a AC unit to chill the whole house (for 4,500 Euro)?  No.  I might have taken 2,000 Euro for a Finland arctic circle trip for 3 weeks.

2.  Natural gas shortage?

Ever since the war (Ukraine-Russia) started up.....German purchase of Russian natural gas has been zero.  For the most part....they buy via a ship deal....having loads delivered and stored in tanks.  

Present level?  They were supposed to have 80-percent of what we needed for a average winter.....by 1 November.  By present count....they won't pass the 70-percent point, and there's some belief that we might not pass the 65-percent point.  

If this were a 5-star extreme winter?  Well....come early January....we'd probably get some warning to lower thermostats to around 17 C (62 F).

This discussion making people skeptical?  I would suggest that most Germans believe there's always going enough natural gas, and when this fails.....'trust' will spiral out of control.

3.  German border controls....extended?

The order went out yesterday....these border-guards (really police on deployed duty) and checking folks as they enter Germany....will continue onto March 2027.  

The odds that it is extended to the end of 2027?  I'd say better than 90-percent chance.

21 August 2026: Germany: 5 Stories

 1.  It's just odd....both ARD and ZDF (public TV of Germany) did a fairly robust report last night....same sources....same quotes...over the limited supply of natural gas in Germany presently, and the anticipation of a national shortage for this winter.

2.  Focus piece....analysis article by Joachim Krause suggesting that Putin must win the war....zero other options.

Hard to imagine a 'win' existing in any fantasy or landscape.   Maybe back in 2023....this was possible. Economically....Russia  is being dragged down to North Korea-level.

3.  Odd developing story....Germany has been offering military training to Ukraine 'recruits'.  Well...Germans now admit recently....at least 80 Ukrainian guys have 'escaped' (run-off) and don't intend to return to the war.   Some suggestions that this event was not the first, and there might be several hundred who've run-off.

4.  Mainz....the city of Mainz ran a project to turn some streets into bike-only situations.  Well...there's a street next to the state parliament (down by the river) where it just happened one day.  You can't drive or drop-off folks (who are the state parliament).  Parliament folks asking what-the-hell-happened here?

5.  EU talking over the idea of banning Russian tourists.