How The Seats 'Game Will Unfold In German Elections

 It doesn't matter if you go and talk state-elections, or the federal-election....it's about gaining seats.

So if you were a conservative-voter  (likely to vote for the CDU), and the talk goes to Afd winning but being unable to form a gov't....then conversation switches to the CDU  Party (in 2nd place) having to partner-up with not just the Greens or SPD....but possibly the BSW folks, or the Linke Party. 

You sit there pondering this, and realize that fair  amount of the coalition  agreement....will be some agenda you can't agree with.

In this reality.....in the week or two leading up to the election....you as the conservative-voter....now contemplate the impossible.  You might vote AfD....just to ensure a somewhat conservative agenda.  

In this game.....the AfD folks who got normally 40-percent of the vote....now edge closer to 50-plus percent on seat.  The CDU? It drops from 20-percent....to 10-percent.

Nationally?  You could play the same game.....where the public is so disenchanted with a left-agenda.....AfD is the only path that makes sense.

I'm not saying this is positive, or anything....just that it's a coalition game. 

Explaining Buc-ee's To A German

 I do have a small audience via my blog to Germans (probably in the 50-to-100 range).  So  my wife asked (after my recent trip to the US) to explain Buc-ee's.  This is the shorter version....designed for non-Americans.

This commercial group.....designed a gas-station....where you'd  have them 3-to-4 hours apart...with 100-plus pumps, and a 'front' that is probably the size of a soccer field.

Yeah, there is a car-wash....traveling great distances, I admit....you don't really prioritize a clean car, but it is priced reasonably.

Inside?  Well....the freshest and most spacious toilets that mankind can build.  

Food?  There's a crew preparing brisket around the clock.  There's a 2nd crew preparing 'sweets' (chocolate).  There's probably 300-odd types of chips or items to pick from.

Yeah, I admit....NO sit-down area  or table....they want you to buy it....return to the car, and eat there.

If you were going somewhere a gift might be appreciated....they have probably in the range of 2,000 gifts.

I would imagine the typical couple....after they fuel, and wash the car....spend  about an hour with the toilet, and procuring food/drink.  Then they return to the interstate.  

Could something like this survive in Germany?   There are three to five states (Bavaria, Hessen, B-W, Thuringia, and NRW) where you could probably space 15 operations along the autobahn. The question is....would brisket be a magnet for Germans? (I'm not so sure)

A trucker-Buc-ee's a more attractive deal?  If you offered trucker-parking, showers, and a sit-down area....yeah.

Buc-ee's dissolving gas-stopping in adjacent towns?  Yeah, I'd say that most towns near a Buc-ee's have lost 40-percent of their business. 

Late Night TV BS

 There were two  interesting 'talks' last night...via the 'Markus Lanz' talk-forum show.

First....the FOCUS online correspondent Sascha Adamek....gave a assessment that the Muslim Brotherhood in Germany....has infiltrated 'some' German political parties (plural).

He didn't suggest which ones....obviously, it's not AfD.

At the national level?  I doubt it....more than likely...in several metro-cities, and maybe a state or two...they've talked their way into positions/committees.

The problem here....if you said which parties....people who tend to vote that way....might question things.

Second, there were several folks connected to Islam on the 'Marus Lanz' show.  At some point.....the pro-Islam gal...gave a position against the ban on young girls in the German school system wearing headscarf's.  Minutes pass, and the topic of Islamic kids doing the Ramadan stuff (no food/water during daylight hours)....which she seemed not to have a problem.

For years, it was pretty clear....Islamic teenagers/kids were 'free' from the mandate.  I'd say since 2015....lot of peer pressure going on.

Trying to make it fifteen hours straight...in summer heat....without hydrating...is a clear safety concern. It's bad enough that adults attempt it....but you end up with 12-or-13 year old kids attempting it?

 Clearly, the problem is.....you get into a German class where seven of the twenty-odd kids are on the no-hydrate agenda....putting peer pressure on the non-Islamic  German kids not to sip water in class, and parents start to complain about wrongful peer-pressure.  

Russia Story

 In the last day or two....it's been three weeks since anyone in Russia has seen Elvira Nabiullina (the head of Russia's central bank).

Yeah, it's a big deal.

Scenarios?  One.....she has a health emergency. Another that she was removed from power by Putin. Another.....that she quietly walked away.  Another.....she's dead from some heart-attack.  Finally.....some suggest  that some secret group...like the CIA....helped her to leave.

Her missing....equals a major problem for Putin? For the most part of the past four years.....she kept the banking system in Russia 'alive'.  On a scoring of one to ten for competency....most folks gave her a '8' or '9'.

How long can the 'system' survive without her showing her face or having a  replacement?  I might go and suggest six months.  At some point....Putin needs a face to 'pin' hopes upon.

If she just left Russia?  I would wager that the US would easily entertain her with some quiet Virginia setting.

If she'd been fired by Putin?   Well....he'd have to announce a new figure (sooner or later).  

Just another one of those funny things which don't make sense. 

(Course....maybe the aliens came for her.....like the 12 Americans)

The Safety of My Valley

 I live about 4 miles outside of Wiesbaden....in a valley surrounded by woods and hay-fields. I won't say it's isolated, but 'away' from the city.

In the past decade for trouble?   We had a Dutch-team come in and blow up the bank's ATM machine (like at 3 AM). We had some early-to-rise gal on the main-drag who left the front-door to catch a early bus into town....to meet some teen 'robber' who attempted to grab her purse (she refused to give in).   We had some guy rob the post office at 4:59 PM (as she was closing)....waving a gun around.  We had a 10-month period one year....where 10 cars were stolen.

The 70s, 80s, 90s, and 00's?  Well...nothing much. We've always had an average of five to ten house-break-ins per year. 

There's no crazy nuts or assaults.

My general safety view?  Metro areas equal some level of lesser-safety....that you have to accept....as part of living in urbanized areas. 

This is Germany of the modern era....if you want 'X'....you need to accept certain things.

When I hear a gunshot at 9 PM?   I know it's the hunter-crew up on the ridge....either shooting a deer or wild-boar.  

It is....what it is.

Late-Night TV Chatter

 Former Federal Interior Minister Thomas de Maizière did a late-night German talk  show.  I'd describe him as a fairly thoughtful 'thinker'.   

At some point, the moderator asks him about the causes  of the AfD's success.

Maizière says something to the effect....he doesn't see the causes of the AfD's success solely in mistakes by the government.  He suggests....there needs to be some  'effect-for-greater-willingness-to-change' among the population.

I paused here.  

First,  you'd have to find some 'path' where the public is convinced of some greater good in the 'making'.   So far.....this has not been a great epic/saga story.  The news media and content-makers-for-the-gov't....have done a half-ass job.

I'm not even convinced that AfD did their job in telling their story or successes.

Second, I would imagine for every 500 'good' stories of migration that you can tell....there's one pretty lame/crappy story....where Germany was too much  for some migrant-guy to handle. The problem....once you yank on this guy's 'chain' and document the deportation necessity.....it's a four-star mess and makes the gov't look like dimwits.

Finally, some German will eventually ask....where in the Constitution is 'change' mandated?

YouGov Polling

 If a national election were held today in Germany?

AfD would have 29-percent.

CDU-CSU: 20-percent.

SPD: 12-percent.  Greens: 14-percent.  Linke: 12-percent.  BSW; 4-percent. FDP: 5-percent.

So....here's the odd factor....if you split CDU/CSU....it comes out to CDU around 15-percent, and CSU around 5-percent.

If BSW were to cross the line to 5-percent....they'd get seats.  Eight parties....with seats?  It'd be a record (since 1930s).

Yeah....folks are awful divided.

UK Chatter

 For 2 days, I've been observing this Brit 'mandate'....curfew on Brit teens under 17....no social media except BlueSky.

I noted someone posting a comment from their daughter: “I’m confused. We’ve always been taught not to share personal information or anything that identifies us online because it isn’t safe. Now they want us to do exactly that to access social media.”

Yeah, it's a valid point....you WILL have to share private/personal data with the UK gov't and the social media 'clowns'.

Did the gov't take away phone-chat ability?  No...oddly, that remains in place.  WhatsAp?  That appears to stay in place as well.

End-of-the-world mental stage?  Well...yesterday...a fair number of teens were acting that way.

AI eventually getting into this mess?  I started to think.....could you rig up AI to create a 'bridge'....where you were age 15 and could still connect to social media?

Final observation....one day....these 16/17 year old 'punks' will be age 18, and vote.  They will remember what Labour did  to them, and in some funny way....pay Labour back.