Local Green Party Meeting In Berlin Concludes

 Local folks gathered up, and they assembled the 'promises' for the next election cycle....for the city election.  The five things I gathered out of this effort?

“Clear leftward shift” at the Berlin Green Party conference. A few highlights:  

1. A city speed limit of 30 kph.  

2.  Absolutely no tunnel construction. 

3.  Mandate for no private jets at BER.  (To be honest, there's at least 4 alternate  runways within 40 km....so if you were this strict....not a big deal.  Lessen the profitability of BER, and help out Finow or Schönhagen)

4.  Find some way of acquiring public housing....Implementing expropriation.  

5.  Invent some way of mandating landlords meet a social quota (left for some 'Einstein' to create).

Polling?  They tend to be in 4th place....around 16-percent.  The CDU appears likely to win....but with a marginal 22-percent.  City fairly split up among five parties.

This Dutch Unrealized Tax 'Game' And Things Likely Go

  The Dutch House of Representatives approved the "Actual Return in Box 3 Act" (Wet werkelijk rendement box 3), a major reform that will apparently tax unrealized gains on assets like stocks, gold, silver, bonds, and crypto at a 36-percent rate starting in January 2028. 

So I'll make four predictions.

First....the upper one-third of society...who invests into various things....will have a long talk with their tax-clerk....between now and mid-2026. They will have a precise number in their mind  of the increase. 

The middle-third of society....who might marginally invests, will also have a brief talk.  Their 'pain' will be existing but minor in detail  (figure a thousand Euro more on taxes).

Second, probably around a half-a-million folks will reach a state of mind that staying in the Netherlands (either in retirement, or working) is not possible. So the bulk of 2026 is to be used in surveying an exit.  Some might find Dubai pleasant.  Some might find work in Germany, Austria, or Czech....to be the solution.  That crazy Trump guy might even put a ad into some Amsterdam paper....suggesting US employment for highly qualified folks.

Third, most of 2027 will be a exit path.  Properties will go up for sale.  Some companies will start to worry....they can't fill positions.  Some companies will even survey the idea of moving totally out....to avoid this chaos.

Fourth....finally....mid-2027....the Dutch gov't admits that they are deep into a hole, without a solution.

Five Things I Tend To Believe Over The Freedom Of Speech Chatter (In The EU)

 1. Yeah, there have to be limits....so all I want is a thousand sheets of plain paper, and on 500 sheets....write down what I can speak of,  and on the remaining 500 sheets....write down what I can't speak of. 

Note, it would be helpful if the can't-talk-about pages didn't go past 500.

2.  I think it would be essentially helpful if moderator-controller....was ONLY one single person.   If you appoint twenty-four folks....things will quickly fall apart.

3. To be honest, as you step into this era....most folks will discover muting speech of all types....would be the best answer.  Don't listen....don't fret....don't disbelieve.....just mute and be happy.

4. At some point in the discussion over freedom of speech chatter in Europe....it will become painfully obvious that a 11-year old kid seems to be brighter and more perceptive than a 40-year-old politician or journalist.  At that point, you will survey the room for an exit-door.

5. If you don't like where this is going....simply leave.  It's not like they are discussing limits over leaving/exiting (yet).

Four Observations

1.  My wife (German in nature) went out this past week....to buy a new bottle of honey.  So this AM....I'm out of my honey, and reach into the 'stock' to get this new bottle.   

Well....they went to  some new 'tech'....having a button on the side that says 'push' (in English, but it's a German company).  I waste about 30 seconds pushing and attempting to open the top.  Total failure.

I end up approaching the wife, and she pulls out a knife....cracking the push-button and cutting it off....saying in blunt English...'there'. I'm a bit astonished....asking what the hell was the push-button for, and she responded 'for security'.  

I'm just wondering....do we really need push-buttons for honey, or anything else?

2.  There was a talk between Chancellor Merz and Governor Newsom in Munich.  Seemed awful friendly....like they knew each other.  

3.  Best quote of the week, from the Munich Security Conference: Belgian PM Bart De Wever: “Europe must never become an industrial museum.”

Somewhere around 1990 to 2000....the museum was opened for business. The museum seems to get bigger each year.

4.  My state public TV network....HR....has started up something called  "One Hour of Conversation."

Basically, you sign up to participate.....rules?  Well...no prior knowledge, no pressure, no judgment.  You have to be respectful interaction and expect good conversation at the end.

Basically a tool to train you how to converse.  

Trying to introduce this into the US?  Well....you'd have to have tables with like-minded people.    Maybe in Germany....fifty-percent of people could still gather and train themselves to converse in a friendly way.  But I'm suspicious here....you probably won't mix a table with 20-year-olds with 60-year-olds.

15 Feb 2026: Germany: 8 Things

 1.  In analyzing the rest of the Munich Security Conference....I came to the Marco Rubio speech. He keyed on three things: deindustrialization, energy suicide, and welfare and mass immigration.  At the conclusion....he got a standing ovation. 

I sat and pondered over this.  If you cornered the majority of German voters....they would hype on all three, and how Germany was 'lost' in some woods....with the three problems preventing a happy-ending fairy tale.

Since the 1990s, deindustrialization has been going on.  Regulating things to such a degree....that it just makes sense to manufacture outside of Germany.  Cost of energy?  Way above neighboring countries. The current welfare program....straining the budget in dozens of ways.  Reckless immigration? Most of the increase in crime....leads back to the design and failures of immigration.

2.  Just odd....from the Munich Security Conference....a number  of people uttered 'rules based order', but in the way used....was the same meaning as 'new world order'.

Weird....so many using the phrase.

My general question.....who made the rules?

3. Some list came out.....the top three most dangerous German train stations (crime, assaults, robbery, etc). Berlin, Leipzig and Dortmund.  Leipzig was listed for 2025 with 859 actual violent crimes.

Yeah, Frankfurt made the list (number 8,with 520 violent crimes).

My general advice....if walking through any  of the metro-stations in Germany....walk in a direct path and get to where you need to be. Don't linger in a spot acting like a target.  Even in Frankfurt....at any given time between 6 AM and 6  PM....there's probably 20 druggies gazing over the pickings.

On police presence?  In the Frankfurt station (including the subway/tram areas)....I'd take a guess that three  patrols (2-cops) are always walking around. Even in Wiesbaden....you tend to see one patrol always walking.

4.  Around 250k folks showed up in Munch yesterday for a protest against the current Iran gov't.   I read through demographics data....over 300,000 Iranians in Germany today.

5.  Swiss public radio/TV news now has a rule....crime committed and the police have the suspect....it's ok to note his nationality/ethnic situation.  

6.  I sat and watched a interview off N-TV (commercial German news).  Guest...PR expert Jannis Johannmeier.  

Topic?  "You can't save democracy with facts."

Jest....if you get into a emotionally charged debate....you might as well dump facts. What you should go to?  Something called "good propaganda."

Facts apparently don't generate positive thoughts or enthusiasm.

(Don't ask me what good propaganda is all about.)

7.  German customs folks....on their daily inspections/raids....encounter salary fraud in one out of four occasions.

8.  Just curious.....CDU Party having a big conference in Stuttgart.   Merz has declared a rule....NO booze sales until the daily meeting has concluded.  This done for two reasons. First, he wants party attendees to remain in the big hall where action is going on....not standing in the outer hallway with a beer or wine. Second....I  guess the CDU folks might consume a 2nd or 3rd beer in the afternoon, and act 'funny'.

Coffee, bubble-water, fruit juice and sodas....still ok.

AM TV Viewing

 This AM....I spent about 45 minutes attempting to view the Munich Security Conference 'talk' with Governor Newsom, and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez from yesterday. Five observations.

1.  If you haven't figured it out....the 2028 President/VP candidates are Newsom/AOC.  On their original career path?  Well....one was into catering, and the other was a bartender.

2.  The moderators were both....keyed to ask the right questions. It reminded me of a 5th grade teacher who needed the class to perform correctly.

3.   Both Newsom and AOC got into the 'word-salad-jungle'....saying 200 word responses (8-minute talks)....where there might have been 20 seconds of value. Trump does the same thing....giving a 2-minute response, and you get about 30 seconds of value.   

4.  I'm not saying the Munich conference is a waste of time....but it's designed to meet-and-greet....build up connections....and party-in-the-after-hours with other 'players'....in swanky upscale rooms.

5. Finally, where VP Harris really screwed up and took a downward path for the campaign....was 'word-salad' commentary....where she could talk for 20 minutes and say nothing of value. Where both Newsom and AOC are heading? Same path.  

Who is probably grinning at this point?  Putin.  He probably sees both of them out of his league.  

This German Military 'Fantasy'?

 About a year into the Russian-Ukraine war.....you got the sense that the German view of defense had finally awaken, and they knew they were 'behind'. They lacked the hardware, the technology, the missile-defense, the bunkers to protect the general public, and the man-power.

So the coalition gov't (SPD-Green-FDP) at the time....went to review funding. In the period after Covid....they weren't in great shape. The next gov't (CDU-CSU-SPD) found a magic number and borrowed against future tax income.  Their number works....ONLY if the economy takes off (it has yet to show that).

Their perception of Russia as the 'threat'?  It's a 50-50 situation.....some folks see Russia as zero-threat now....stuck in a 20-year rebuilding process....handcuffed to a 3rd-world banking 'mess'....negative population situation (actually on decline), and can only achieve a rebuild situation if Germany continues to buy natural gas/oil from them.  Others feel Russia will be a serious threat....the minute that the Ukraine-war ends.

Polls suggest that a minimum of 50-percent of German youth have no interest in the draft/conscription or defending the nation. You have to wonder why, but it's not likely to change.

Realization that the US is likely to lessen it's projection in Europe?   Discussed almost daily.

Reality if you have to rely upon new immigrants for the defense of Germany?  This gets brought up occasionally.

How things will look in ten years?  Unknown.  

Netherlands, The Lifestyle, The Cost

 I've made around eight trips over the years into the Netherlands.  Sometimes for a weekend....sometimes for a full-week.  So, some observations:

First, you don't go for the food (it's marginal and nothing to brag about).

Second, to sit in a Dutch beer-garden...mid-summer....drinking a decent beer....is a four-star experience.

Third, no matter where you go....the general feeling is that engineers have designed the look, feel, streets, railway system, and highways.

Fourth, you just rarely find beggars on the street.  Now....if you stand in Amsterdam....yeah....fair number of doped-up folks.

Fifth, it's a odd feeling.....all this massive infrastructure....will eventually require replacement, and I don't think they ever calculated this day in coming.

Finally, you sense that they want to overly impress visitors....'you-could-be-like-us'. But then you start to think....what'd these folks pay for the 'look'?