Seven Things You Probably Should Grasp Over Poland Politically

 1.  The Sejm is the 'house'.  460 Seats.  

The Senate has 100 seats. 

2.  Twelve political parties in the mix.

The Civic Coalition is Tusk's party (left-of-center)....having 156 seats. Their partners are Polish Coalition Party (32 seats), Poland-2050 Party (15 seats), Centre Union Party (15 seats, and the Left Party (15 seats). You can classify the group as slightly-to-the-left, and moderately-to-the-left.  You can classify the group as pro-EU (in Poland, this topic always comes up).

The Law and Justice Party leads the opposition with 147 seats.  I'd place it right-of-center....Tusk's folks would suggest its far-right.

The least of the Sejm group?  The Crown Party....ultra-nationalist....has three seats.

From the minority opposition....what you can say is that most are anti-EU or moderately-pro-EU.

3.  Unemployment in Poland.....almost lowest in the EU....3.4-percent.

Youth-unemployment, 11.3-percent, placing them in the middle of the EU.

4.  Poles and public safety?

Well....Poles will claim that they have the most safe streets in the EU.  Some statistics agree with this.  Why?  Poles claim very limited migrants, and lower drug-use.  

5.  This internal fight over the court?  The left-of-center parties feel that the justice system (top-level) is mostly right-of-center....the accusation is....it's imbalanced.

If you polled he nation....vast majority would suggest that this disagreement is problem number one.  If you asked the same folks....what justice-rendering decisions are imbalanced....most would probably not be able to cite a problem....other than women's right (abortion) are an issue.

6.  Culture 'war' underway.  Most Poles would suggest a youth-movement....mostly disgruntled.  Abortion rights are cited most of the time.....saying that women are denied 'rights'. 

This 'war' helped Tusk's group in the Oct 2023's parliament election achieve success.  Female vote came out and supported the 'war'.

7.  Cure for the coup-crowd?  Changing the Constitution and deleting the President/VP positions....but Tusk and associates don't have anywhere near the number to edit the Constitution.  This coup deal is mostly geared to get enough justices/judges in place....to end the debate, and allow the Sejm to be the final word.

RyanAir Opening New Deal?

 Starting in March 2027....Kassel (north Hessen) Airport will have two flights:

- Two weekly connections will be offered to Palma de Mallorca (Spain) and two to Lamezia Terme in Calabria (Italy).

Calabria?  It's pretty far south....in the 'tippy-toe' of the 'boot'.  

In the three cases (Kassel, Calabria, and Mallorca....they found a 'deal' for landing rights.

My slam against Kassel?  It's a four-hour drive from my house to the airport.  If you looked at Metro cities within range....most all are 2.5 to 3.5 hours away.  

On my index of 'small-airports' (1-to-10)....it rates a '8'...easy parking, one coffee shop, and almost no weekly action (just vacation airlines in the summer).

Poland: Observations Since Yesterday

 1.  The Office of the President of Poland submitted two 'notes' to the prosecutor's office.  One concerned Article 128/Penal Code (crime of an attack on a constitutional part of the state) and Article 135 (active assault on the President of the Republic of Poland).

One issue I see....the chief prosecutor works for the PM.  

Paperwork-wise....the prosecutor has to handle the affair, or dump the 'notes'.

2.  As the initial hours of the coup played out....it would have been wiser to delay the coup until the President had arrived in Africa.  I don't think this was clearly thought out over him returning....like they anticipated he'd never return.

3.  Curiously.....Poland has heightened security near the Russian border (Kaliningrad). 

What authorities say....they thwarted a possible overnight provocation involving individuals with flashlights.  Yeah....armed with flashlights (there's probably some humor in this chatter).

From what I read....it appears that PM Tusk (not the President) has linked Russian efforts to foment instability in Poland....with the domestic political crisis.

4.  PM Tusk has made a comment or two....wanting a face-to-face meeting with President Nawrocki.  Nothing on the schedule yet.  Oddly....Nawrocki is supposed to fly out and be in Slovakia for a state visit this week.  It does not appear that he's worried over another coup episode.

5.National Bank of Poland (NBP) had their meeting....intending to keep interest rates unchanged. The Monetary Policy Council held the reference rate at 3.75-percent. 

New projections (looking ahead by NBP) showed higher inflation ranges for next 24 months.

6.  If you were looking at financial stability over Poland (for 2026)....robust growth....GDP up 4-percent over the year.  Inflation is not a big deal for the year.  Vast majority of the banking sector....considered sound.  

If you asked me to rank it among EU countries....it's mostly in the middle on most topics...financially-speaking.  

The coup would have been easier to sell to the public....if instability were a 'big' deal. That's not the case.

5 Nov 2026: Germany/Europe: 5 Stories

 1.  Hubert Aiwanger, head of the Free-Voters Party, found dead in a hotel.  Around Bavaria, fairly well known individual.  Autopsy to be done.

From the top ten parties in the country....Free-Voters are in the group....mostly a big deal in Bavaria.  

2.  The Berlin-coalition (led by the Linke Party, to include the SPD and Greens)....won't put out their 'agreement' until the first week of January.  

3.  WELT piece this AM....strong hint that even if the Ukraine war ends....most Ukrainian refugees in Germany have no intention of returning 'home'.  

Number?  1.3-million with 'status' in Germany.  I would take a humble guess that around 100,000 live in Germany on the 'black' (undeclared-no-status).

I had electrical work done this week in the house.  Work was done by a Ukrainian guy.

4.  Sugar tax?  Kinda stalled....mostly by the CSU Party membership.  

5.  BDK made a public statement yesterday....that they anticipate fairly violent riots on New Year's eve (31 Dec).

Frankfurt Riot After Action?

 The Frankfurt public prosecutor's office apparently now has 54 suspects on charges from this past weekend riot-action (in the shopping district).

Charges dangling?  Well...breach of the peace, aggravated assault, burglary, and attacks on police officers .

More folks to be detained, as video is reviewed?  Looks that way.

In the past....you might get arrested...charged-up, and maybe eight months would pass before your case came up.  It appears now that these folks are on a shortened schedule...probably to face a judge within 90 days.

Getting more than a year in jail?  It appears that the prosecutor is pushed to press hard.  If you were stupid and did some kind of aggravated assault or attack on police/ambulance crews/firemen....you might be in a serious case with up to 10 years of prison time.  State laws got more strict last year about attacks on medical personnel and firemen....treated at same level as policemen now.

Video playing a key role?  The judge will put a lot of weight on 'proof'.  

Frankfurt looking for more tools for future riots?  Just by the statements made....there's likely to be another couple of hundred cameras set-up over the next year.

Poland: Since Yesterday

 1.  Last night....conference meeting....President Nawrocki and PM Tusk in the upper-level meeting.  Just viewing the initial moments (video)....Tusk was visibly bothered.  

Meeting results?  Well....for weeks, vacancy situation for the National Bank, and RPP (Monetary Policy Council).  President had passed names down for Tusk to sign off....delay after delay.  Right off the bat with this meeting....Tusk signs the names to openings.  No problem?  Well....that's the message.

The funding for US basing/construction?  No problem....Tusk readily agrees.

Threat from Russia chatter?  Tusk highlights the threat....something he would not have uttered a month ago. 

One gets the impression that no charges will occur and Tusk can remain as PM.....even if he is severely weakened.

2.  Just odd.

Yesterday.....seven European passenger flights from Ryanair, Wizz Air, LOT Polish Airlines, and SAS were targeted by bomb threats across Poland, Spain, Italy, and Bulgaria. 

Culprit?  Unknown.

3.  Martial law chatter?  After this meeting between Tusk and Nawrocki last night....that seems to have dissolved away.  The suggestion is that civil conflict would erupt if Tusk were charged.

Odd Germany-Poland History

 Nazi-boss Adolph Hitler.....justified invading Poland in 1939....by claiming ethnic Germans were being persecuted.

Using old territory grumblings....German territory had also been unfairly taken.

Hitler framed an invasion of conquest as an act of self-defense.  

Yeah....it as a 4-star fabrication....to correct the 'wrongs'.

And yes, it does resemble the Putin-Nazis-Ukraine stuff a bit.

Poland: What Likely Happens To Tusk (PM)?

 Basically three routes:

1.  You detain the guy and charge him with some federal crime.

2.  You convince him to run-off and exit Poland.

3.  You hold off on charges....threatening charges any minute, and publicly talk about his 'crimes'....but never arresting him.  Let him serve as a problem for his political party.  This convinces the party to have a no-confidence vote...dumping him.

Chief problem....there's probably 10,000 folks within the gov't who owe something to Tusk and his party.  They are probably worried over where things are going, and hyped-up to exit the country.

EU?  There's probably 500-odd folks meeting at bars/night-clubs in Brussels....discussing things.  This discussion of a coup?  Well...they don't want this to be focused upon by non-Poles.

BBC or ARD (German public TV)?  Thirty seconds max tonight....without uttering 'coup'.  Probably some effort to say Putin's FSB somewhere in the middle of this crap.

You just wonder....who convinced Tusk....the coup-route was going to work?