Eight Aspects of Coups

 1.  Historically-speaking....the majority of coup d'état efforts fail. You can analyze these to the 9th degree, and it's a wild mix....sometimes by poor planning....sometimes by poor leadership....sometimes by dumb luck.

2.  The first time coup d'état got noted?  Coup of 18 Brumaire on November 9–10, 1799....when Napoleon Bonaparte...backed by Emmanuel-Joseph Sieyès, overthrew the French Directory and established the French Consulate.  

3.  Odd US plot that failed.  A group of ultra-wealthy...far-right (always those bastards) political conspirators allegedly plotted to overthrow President Franklin D. Roosevelt.  In their plan...it was to replace him with a fascist-style (but business-friendly) regime. The scheme collapsed after retired Marine Corps General Smedley Butler, whom the plotters approached to lead the coup, exposed the conspiracy to Congress.

4. Only successful US coup?  The Wilmington 1898 Coup d'État.  This occurred on 10 November 1898.

White supremacists (Klan guys) overthrew the biracial, locally elected government in Wilmington, North Carolina.  

History notes that a couple of dozen black residents were executed.  The effort also destroyed a Black-owned newspaper, and forced elected officials to resign at gunpoint.

5.  Most noted German coup (failure).  The Palm Sunday Putsch (German: Palmsonntagsputsch) of 13 April 1919.

Basically...a Bavarian militia attempted (failed) to overthrow the week-old Bavarian Soviet Republic.

German historians usually say that the putsch/coup....failed due to the resistance of German communist fighters (WW I experience) who supported the communist Bavarian Soviet Republic. 

About 2 to 3 weeks after this failed coup....the Bavarian Soviet Republic was overthrown in early May 1919....mostly by efforts military-wise....by forces of the Weimar Republic.  

6. It is a statistical fact.....bloodless coups or low-violence coups...have a higher success rate.  But these are noted as such...mostly because of speed, surprise, and keeping communications under control.

7.  US-led coup in Iran....gives us the mess of today?

Back in 1953....there was a Iranian Coup (Operation Ajax).....led by MI6/CIA folks.  

This effort was to kick out democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh and restore the Shah (Mohammad Reza Pahlavi) to power.

You can make the statement....this only led to the 1979 Iranian Revolution....which confronts us today.

8.  The Tusk Coup?  On failure points....I'd say they should not have started the coup until the Polish President had landed in Africa, and ensured that his plane was broke.  

The police used in surrounding the Supreme Court building?  A fair number had un-numbered helmets/riot jackets....which was odd.  So far the only explanation suggested is that they were police academy students....not full-up police members. 

The order to issue out machine guns/ammo to the riot-police?  On paper, it exists....but oddly, there's zero evidence that some folks at the building had the guns or ammo. 

Oddly, this judge who claims 'top-dog' status....has yet to make the statement....that she works for the PM (Tusk).  You are left to assume this.

The coup over?  Well...this 'top-dog' judge has ordered that a meeting Supreme Court judges will occur on Tuesday, and on the books....this meeting is still likely a part of the coup.  So I'd say....coup-wise, it's not really ended yet.  

Ten Humble Thoughts

 1.  Related to Poland: Sometimes you need a coup, or revolution, or radical overthrow situation....to keep your prospective of democracy still existing.

2.  Riot action: Running into a riot-control water cannon on a plus-2 degree C day....probably improves your odds of getting pneumonia.  

3.  Across America....if you came up with three or four new species of aliens existing....at least 10-million Americans would be hyped-up to sexually get it on, with the aliens.

4.  Once you start identifying everything of 'value' as a cartel.....suddenly....things seem to fit and make sense.

5.  If people were challenged to define a 'shit-hole'.....after an hour or two of thinking....they'd probably list forty cities, and at least five countries.

6.  After 20-plus years of living in a Oligarch-type landscape.....you don't even think of it in a negative way anymore.

7.  Somehow....social-democrats and democratic-socialists....are the same thing.

8.  It's possible that we wake up in ten years....to find that one-third of the voting public are willing to elect a AI-bot as city mayor....even if you tell the voter it's not a actual living human being.

9. If you make a 10-minute speech (recorded) and the finished product shows twenty-one 'edits' (cuts)....pretty good odds that it's a crappy unbelievable speech (probably requiring two hours of speaking)

10.  A SUCCESSFUL coup......opens many doors.  A UNSUCCESSFUL coup...usually leads to voters to asking some rather stilly questions.  

My Favorite Coup Story

Mid-1960s....Algeria....Houari Boumédiène ousted Ahmed Ben Bella from power.

So....at the time in Algeria....some movie production crew was filming 'The Battle of Algiers'.

Movie theme?  Actual 1950s independence movement...fairly historical.

19 June 1965 comes up....army units under Defense Minister Colonel Houari Boumédiène arrested President Ahmed Ben Bella in a limited action (no deaths).

Tanks and troops moved through the capital with ease....with the public used to the movie being shot.

Most residents assumed the activity was just more movie production. 

They all wake up on the 20th....rather shocked....coup completed, and the movie production continued on.

I always thought this was a great movie idea....having a actual coup built around a movie coup.

Riot-Demonstrations, and Poland

 Watched a fair amount of coverage over demonstrations (and later riot-action)....mostly over Frankfurt, Koln and Hamburg.

Most in Frankfurt?  Police say 8,000 range in mid-day....probably around 1,000 as darkness fell.  Violence/fires....mostly after dark.  Police detained a number of folks in the shopping district.  Report suggested around 1,000 police were on the scene there. 

Water cannon use noted....with temps down near 5C....awful cold if you got a full dose of the cannon.

I'd say there were two 'players'....students with complaints in the afternoon, who headed home as it got dark.  The rowdy folks stayed and caused the looting/damage. 

As for Poland?

I watched the PM (Tusk) give his 8 PM 'talk'.  Three things from that...he proposed at some point, resolutions and laws to rebuild the rule of law, but it's a odd statement from a guy who had a coup-card in the mix.

Then he said the police were there protecting the Constitutional Tribunal from the attackers....but as they arrived....they were mostly there to confine the folks inside the Tribunal building, who were gov't workers.

Then he said brawls are a bad thing....but never saying that coups are pretty bad as well.

I went and watched the 'talk'...with the sound muted.  What I can say....Tusk had a bad case of 'worry'/panic.  Hands shaking at times.  If you asked me over worries....he's maxing out on the scale. 

What does not make sense....polls show the KO-Party (Tusk's folks) leading (around 31/32 percent) with the fall 2027 election looking positive for a 'win'.  So why screw up the outlook with a banana-republic coup?  It does not make much logical sense.

Number of suggestions that the coup-planning was mostly a small group (maybe less than ten)....mostly folks around Tusk.  They seemed focused....at the end of the coup, there would be no President or VP....that the public would accept the coup as legitimate, and the whole landscape was we-are-protecting-democracy-by-cranking-up-a-coup.  

Early election BS?  There's simply talk....no substance.  There are various triggers to cause a Tusk coalition to collapse.  

Four parties make up the Tusk coalition....Poland 2050, Polish People's Party, the New Left, and finally KO (Tusk's own party).  Social commentary?  You get the impression that a lot of folks from the four parties probably were NOT expecting a coup occurring, and rather shocked how things have played out. If there was a vote of confidence over Tusk (the PM)  in the next week....I'd only give him a 50-50 chance of surviving the vote.  

My Final Five Thoughts On Poland Coup Failure

 1.  Its just odd...I watched a good bit of video of the riot-police at the court building.  None of the helmets had numbers....none of the jackets had numbers.  

Explanation? I suspect they were training-school 'kids' for the police.  

2.  Judge Anna Korwin-Piotrowska....the gal who tried to establish herself as the chief of the court....without any valid status?

I would suggest that she will lose her law license within six weeks....admit to stress issues...enter some clinic, and never have charges drawn up.

3.  Tusk, the PM?  I think he will stick around and be a 'face' for the coup.....as the election campaign starts up early next year. Compared to the last election...Tusk probably loses nearly half of the votes as anticipated.

4.  Meme of the year?  There's a 8-second shot....President is entering the court-building and Korwin-Piotrowska (the lawyer gal) is attempting to block him and say she's in charge.  President merely pushes her out of the way like a bag of marsh-mellows. 

5.  Who planned this?  Totally unknown, and may never be known.

The Oddest Three Scenarios For The Poland Crisis?

 I've spent two hours this AM....reading through commentary by Poles, and non-Poles...over the coup-attempt. Some weird beliefs.

First....one guy suggested that Putin rigged up this crisis....getting Tusk and crew convinced that they could run successful coup....then fail the coup.....getting the President of Poland into a better overall position....to somehow benefit a pro-Putin landscape.

Second, someone suggested that the President of Poland was never on the plane to Africa....that he knew ahead of time of the coup.

Finally, someone suggested this planned by the President....quietly....to get Tusk convinced it was a great idea, and now screw up the election chances for Tusk and crew for October 2027.   

Five Thoughts Over Poland 'Chaos/Crisis'

1. This AM....I noted that Deputy Inspector General of Police Tomasz Michułka got mentioned.  He's the police 'boss'....who apparently had the riot police units to be issued automatic weapons against Polish civilians...if they defended the Constitutional Tribunal (court).

I just DON'T see police being that pumped-up to shoot anyone.  

2.  At the end of this crisis....probably by the middle of Saturday....there's likely fifty-odd gov't folks (politicians and government bosses)....who have to exit Poland in a hurry.  I don't see Germany that eager to accept them.  

3.  If you asked me over public perception.....maybe 25-percent are full-up charged-up....to have a coup like this.  Opposing them (anti-coup)....is probably 25-percent.

So then you have fifty-percent of folks....who shake their head.  They don't have an understanding of how a banana-republic-like situation developed like this, and see Tusk as dimwitted for approving this plan.

4.  A lot of non-Poles around Europe....are viewing this coup-like situation and wondering....where did this all start, and is there history of this?

Well....Feb of 1981....the last coup in Europe (Spain).  It was also a failed effort.

5. Politically, Tusk has damaged his party and it's image....a lot.  Oct 2027.....next parliament election.  

31 Oct 2026: Germany/Europe: 6 Stories

 1.  Natural gas goals for 'storage'....in Germany....80 percent for most storage facilities....however....45 percent for the facilities in Bad Lauchstädt, Frankenthal, Hähnlein, Rehden, Stockstadt and Uelsen.

If this were a moderate winter....there's enough.  If it's a severe winter....there's issues brewing.

2.  Poland.  Fairy dramatic 'theater' unfolding.  National Court building surrounded by police, under orders from PM Tusk, and his appointed 'supreme-judge'....while the President was flying for a visit to some African country.  Word gets to the President....he turns the plane around, and lands in Warsaw.

Tusk's judge basically gave a 30-day time-out on the President/VP.  

Police?  They allowed the President to enter the court building, and so far...nothing much else has occurred (8 AM news).

What I'd suggest....police for the most part...vote right-of-center and I doubt that this was laid out in full detail yesterday afternoon.  I expect most police to depart for home, and Tusk's 'theater-antics' unravel over most of the day.  Whether he stays in Poland or has to flee....I'm of the mind that he's not likely to stay.

3.  31 Oct....riots in Germany?  There's a lot of hype....French-stye riots likely to start up today.  

4.  Some issue brewing....false German language test certificate now noted.  Migrants paying for the fake copy....to get 'status'.....but can marginally speak/read/write German.

5.  VW is apparently halting development of the E-Golf vehicle....saying they can't really afford to go further.

6.  German, Canada and Norway....financing Patriot missiles (500) for Ukraine.  Amount of cost? 2.1-billion Euro.