This Baden-Wuerttemberg 'Mess'

 I've watched the clip of CDU candidate Hagel.....Wed at the school....drawn into a 'greenhouse-gas' lecture and royally screwing up the situation....with the 'kids'.

So my five thoughts:

1. Up to this point, with the state  election on Sunday....the CDU was slated to win with 27-percent....Greens ending up at 24-percent. Now?  I suggest a 3.5-point shift....Greens likely winning by 1 to 1.5 percent.

2.  Why didn't the CDU have a 'watcher' over the guy and sense he was being set up?  

It appears the teacher (probably very politicized) had things laid out to trip up Hagel, and the ARD news team....to capture the moment.  

It was scripted....pure and simple.

3.  The moment about 90 seconds into the mess....where Hagel loses 'it'?  Yeah....he's not prepared, and realizes he was tricked.....lot of  apparent anger.

4.  The 'greenhouse-effect'?  If you asked a thousand Germans....fewer than 10 would give somewhat of an answer....with half of them getting the solid answer.

5.  So, here's the odd ending.  Greens win on Sunday....my prediction.

They turn to  get the CDU to partner-up and half of the voters for the state CDU say 'NO'.  No partnership for the coalition.

The Greens turn to form with the Linke, SPD, and FDP....finding it  barely works  but the FDP want a list of conditions.

In the end....NO coalition....with another state vote in 60 days (my humble view).

AI Story

 I sat last night and watched the weather folks of public TV....hype-up their latest accomplishment.  They seem ready to hook-up AI....giving it some kind of 'best-case' versus 'worst-case' scenario ability on weather predictions.

In my mind....without much doubt....the crazy weather predictions might improve....minute-by-minute.  So you could watch 'AI-Maggie' at 6:10 AM....getting x-news on weather (nothing to worry over), and an hour later....'AI-Paul' at 7:00 AM might give you some pretty crappy news....of impending hail at 10 AM.

Monster-rain storms in July?  AI could probably track systems as they enter Germany and send you a personal warning 90 minutes ahead of time....that you need to close all windows and prepare for serious weather.

This AI-assist?  I'm not calling it a positive thing....it means AI is tracking various things, and will state facts way before a human would have uttered some warning. It's also telling you of heat-wave crap, with advice to seek cooling situations (probably telling you where some AC can be found).

A new reality. 

Page Three Story

 Yesterday......Federal Constitutional Court opened up in Germany.

Key court story?  The "Deutsche Umwelthilfe"....co-financed from tax folks of the federal government and various states, is in some suing against German industry.

By EU rules in  place.....to reach a healthy 'clean' environment.....the prosperity and the economy of Germany (the government and companies).....in some way (if they win) would have to shrink faster for the climate.

On one side....it's moderately mentioned in the news.  On the other side....if the court says they have 'power' over the economy and industry....then there's authority for them to downsize the German landscape. 

Personally, when the EU got into this law-business over the environment and industry....I don't think they had any idea where things would lead onto.

As for the folks 'pushing'?  Well....if they wake up and 30-percent of employed folks are in danger of seeing their jobs go away....society won't be that friendly or accepting of the 'reality'.

Sun Is Getting Hotter Story

I sat and watched a PR-type campaign video.....done by the CDU's lead candidate in the state of election in Baden-Württemberg.

This was set up in some school.....which I immediately noted....the kids have no vote, unless they are 16.  

I'm assuming they asked for a older group...but the kids in this room were age 13/14 (my guess).

So....Manuel Hagel went into education-mode....to explain the greenhouse effect.

My German is less-than-average....but the next 60-odd seconds...Hagel gave some words to say the sun is getting hotter....because the Earth's atmosphere is becoming thinner.

Just by the look on their faces....the kids were either in a state of disbelief....or in some mid-morning 'trance' (too much Monster-energy 'fluid').

On the positive side?  Well....the kids are still  pumped up on  climate-change-Angst (fear).

Probably needs to be a German law....to prevent politicians from entering any school unless the kids are 16-or-older (enough to vote).

Footnote: I think the CDU guy just lost 5 points off the election....but I don't see the Greens on the gain-side. Very odd development.  

How The Sunday Election Will Go in Baden-Wurttemberg?

 State election.

CDU will win....around 27-percent. Greens easily in 2nd place....24-percent.

AfD near 20-percent.

SPD, 9-percent.  Linke and FDP near 6 each.

Observations

 1. Yesterday AM....Iraqi Kurds were organized and crossing the border into Iran....invasion-style. Based on reports....I'd say they were armed by the US Army and had clear strategies....hooking up with Iranian Kurds.   

2.  Odd thing I noticed via Bloomberg News yesterday....Sweden’s central bank advised folks....they should hold a week’s worth of cash at home.  Reason?  Well....you might need to buy food, essentials...in case of a war or other crisis.

Why drove this advice?  Unknown.

3.  Putin suggested he might cut off ALL natural gas deliveries to the EU....saying that he has other customers.   

4.  These big public viewing beer-parties during WM2026 (this summer)?  Well....in Hamburg....cancelled.  Security requirements make it too costly.  Going to be a lot of grumbling how things got this way.

5.  Two bomb threats yesterday....Bremen, and Augsburg....shut-down the two train-stations.   Nothing found.

6. 143,000 registered cases to go against deportation orders in Germany for 2025.  These were people who came  into Germany....asked for asylum, were evaluated, and then given the 'nein' paperwork.

You can add up the paperwork, and manpower....probably 40-man-hours for the gov't to defend their decision (minimum)....but this would tie up the German court system for years, and years.

The court system was never made to handle this sort of mess.

7.   Cash requirement?  If you have something to  buy/pay-for....costing  over 3,000 Euro, and you pay in cash? Then some ID is required. A bad example here....if you had a used car....pricing it at 2,999 Euro would avoid the paperwork.  Pricing it at 3,050....requires the paperwork.

8. When you examine how things went 'south' so fast in Iran....this one meeting about 3 weeks ago....where the Trump folks were trying to deal with Iran's nuclear program....the topic of how much enriched uranium came up.  

We are talking weapons-grade uranium.

The response was x-amount....enough for 11 nuke-bombs.

Why this guy was honest? That's  really the big question. If he'd say half-a-nuke or less....things might have gone in a friendly fashion

Was he boasting?  Was he just a new guy? Was he just a actor in the talks?  Unknown.

9.  All that 'bad-Spain' talk? Ended.  The PM came back yesterday, and said they re-considered....Rota and Moran are open for US operations.

To put things into prospective.  

Moran is by Seville,  and Rota is by Cadiz.....both were US bases.....paid and kept up to date....for events like this.

Sanchez, the PM of Spain?  I'd describe him as 50-percent Gov Newsom (Cal)....male-model type, but being one step above Newsom on IQ, and  mostly attached to only focus-groups that get the vote out.

10.  Gas prices this AM?  In my region.....1.88 Euro for E-10.

The Too Many Employees Chat

 After yesterday's piece on Stuttgart having an audit....finding that of the 17k city employees....a 1,000 are not necessary....my German wife got into this topic.

Her belief?  If you visited the top fifty German cities....they all have a 5-to-10 percentage 'overage'.  Her belief as well...if you did trim and let people go....this 100,000 group would have issues/problems in finding new work....permanently unemployed is the outcome (her thoughts).

I pondered this unique problem.

In most cases....my belief....for each six workers....you probably have a manager, and for each three managers....there's some division chief. 

In a shop of ten folks....there's probably three workers carrying the work-load....doing around 75-percent of the work.  The remaining seven are mostly to fill the gap and 'look' busy.

In my days in the Pfalz....someone brought up their German wife wanting to open a cafe, and needing a business license.  Various trips to the town 'rathaus' were failures....mostly because of the clerk in charges of licenses. Eventually....she gave up on this idea...in this one particular village....selecting an alternate site a couple  of kilometers away, and on the first trip to that new clerk....all papers were squared away.   

I'm not saying all city employees are 'problems'.....but the system over the past forty-odd years has corrupted itself.

So the curious question....would the SPD, Greens, CDU, AfD, and Linke folks....be willing to cut 100,000 city employees across Germany?  I would say......no.

Does The US Have A Limited AMMO/Rocket/Missile Number?

 There is this odd belief.....Iran will use cheap drones (maybe two-to-three hundred a day....to force the US to spend expensive  weapons to halt the drones.....to which around day ten....the US is assumed to be 'out'.

Who gave the Iranians this idea?  I'd guess the Chinese.

The problem.....the US really hasn't put the full 'blast' of assets there in the region (in terms of Naval or Air Force). 

The other issue....as days pass....the US gets smarter on where this bulk storage of drones are, and there's to be a moment where that one single 'tunnel' is targeted.

It's a hopeful strategy....but around day 30....there's to be a bad 'feeling' lingering among those still left alive.