Four Humble Thoughts

 1.  Hyped-up sense over the state election yesterday?

Well...Greens walked away with a major 'win', and the SPD folks (at least in the state of B-W)....looked like crap.  I would add....if you go and look at regional voting....there's some shocking upward urbanized trends for AfD (Mannheim for example).

Balance of seats?  It appears that the Greens get 56 seats....as do the  CDU. SPD gets 10 seats, and AfD gets 35.  Coalition?  It can only be Greens and CDU.  If the CDU has some right-wing agenda to pop up....they could carry it with AfD votes.

2. Yesterday....Putin gave some speech.  Midst of it....had a five-star coughing attack. Was carried live on TV apparently.

3. One odd aspect from the German state election.....the trend-folks can show that AfD gains....came from left and center politics.  General public are attached to the crime-angle and migrant issues.  

4.   Meteorite damage.....various parts of Rhineland-Palatinate Saturday evening.

Police say....fragments of a meteorite have caused damage to roofs and houses in Rhineland-Palatinate. Damage reports: Hunsrück and Eifel regions, as well as Koblenz.  

Baden-Wurttemberg State Election Results

 Green Party.....winner....31.8-percent.

CDU....2nd place....29.3-percent (about 5 points above last election). 

AfD.....17.6-percent....about 9 points above last election.

SPD.....5.5-percent (half of last time's vote).

FDP/Linke....4.5 percent each.....neither will get seats unless they get near 5-percent.

Massive Green Party win.....simple coalition.....Greens with CDU as a partner.

How way-off were the polls from the past week?  I'd say Greens were 30-percent off....SPD way-over-counted.....and the CDU did overly well (6 points above projection).

Snack Rule

 This AM....I was reading a minor German news item....related to a school in the state of NRW (NW Germany)....where instructions got passed out during Ramadan and causing heartburn.

Students (appears in the age group of 12 to 14)....are apparently supposed to eat their break-time sandwiches or snack-food.....ONLY secretly or away from the Muslim kids.

Parents reaction?  Mostly negative.

I paused over this....thinking....if you were true to the Ramadan business....you aren't supposed to hydrate (drink fluids) from sun-up to sun-down.  You'd have to mandate no fluids as well as the snack-rule. 

Inviting trouble?  The more I ponder this....yeah.....there's trouble brewing if you really stress this.

Cash Story

 This week...Hungarian officials stopped two vehicles (together)...heading toward the Ukrainian border (eastward).

What they found in the vehicles?  40 Million US-Dollars (cash), 35 Million Euro (cash) and 9 Kilogram in Gold.

Crew?  Ukraine guys.

Official story?  Profits from some Ukraine guy's business.

Bogus story?  Well....you don't know.

All of this is an issue for the EU....where the money came from and how you can move this much in cash around.

Weed Story

 One of the top ten grocery chains in Germany....is NETTO.  On my wife's list?  Well....no.  She might stop there twice a year.

Yesterday, in their weekly advertising....they noted that they have a Cannabis-starter 'kit'....14.99 Euro.

I read the piece twice over.  Seedling....basic instructions....projected growth, and you end up with a Cannabis plant.

255 shops will market it Germany-wide.

On the same brochure page....strawberry plants as well.

I'm guessing there is a age limit (probably minimum of age 16).  This starting some trend?  Maybe.

Three Observations

 1. It came up on N-TV news this AM.....one out of every three Bahn  'conductors'....peeved enough to consider quitting....over the violence of ticket-auditing.  Threat of violence....growing.

If you go back twenty years ago.....you simply didn't didn't have this level of 'threat'. I don't remember in the 2000 to 2010 era....seeing anyone audited much....riding without a ticket. 

2.  Back around two years ago....around 20 'bombs' were noted in delivery boxes around the EU.  Investigation completed.....Russian military is blamed.

3. Kaiserslautern.....after a knifing death last weekend....has put into effect a 'weapons-free-zone'.....meaning  in the designed area....cops are free to stop you....force an ID-check, and frisk you.  

For reference.....Wiesbaden started the first WFZ....around 6 years ago.  

This Baden-Wuerttemberg 'Mess'

 I've watched the clip of CDU candidate Hagel.....Wed at the school....drawn into a 'greenhouse-gas' lecture and royally screwing up the situation....with the 'kids'.

So my five thoughts:

1. Up to this point, with the state  election on Sunday....the CDU was slated to win with 27-percent....Greens ending up at 24-percent. Now?  I suggest a 3.5-point shift....Greens likely winning by 1 to 1.5 percent.

2.  Why didn't the CDU have a 'watcher' over the guy and sense he was being set up?  

It appears the teacher (probably very politicized) had things laid out to trip up Hagel, and the ARD news team....to capture the moment.  

It was scripted....pure and simple.

3.  The moment about 90 seconds into the mess....where Hagel loses 'it'?  Yeah....he's not prepared, and realizes he was tricked.....lot of  apparent anger.

4.  The 'greenhouse-effect'?  If you asked a thousand Germans....fewer than 10 would give somewhat of an answer....with half of them getting the solid answer.

5.  So, here's the odd ending.  Greens win on Sunday....my prediction.

They turn to  get the CDU to partner-up and half of the voters for the state CDU say 'NO'.  No partnership for the coalition.

The Greens turn to form with the Linke, SPD, and FDP....finding it  barely works  but the FDP want a list of conditions.

In the end....NO coalition....with another state vote in 60 days (my humble view).

AI Story

 I sat last night and watched the weather folks of public TV....hype-up their latest accomplishment.  They seem ready to hook-up AI....giving it some kind of 'best-case' versus 'worst-case' scenario ability on weather predictions.

In my mind....without much doubt....the crazy weather predictions might improve....minute-by-minute.  So you could watch 'AI-Maggie' at 6:10 AM....getting x-news on weather (nothing to worry over), and an hour later....'AI-Paul' at 7:00 AM might give you some pretty crappy news....of impending hail at 10 AM.

Monster-rain storms in July?  AI could probably track systems as they enter Germany and send you a personal warning 90 minutes ahead of time....that you need to close all windows and prepare for serious weather.

This AI-assist?  I'm not calling it a positive thing....it means AI is tracking various things, and will state facts way before a human would have uttered some warning. It's also telling you of heat-wave crap, with advice to seek cooling situations (probably telling you where some AC can be found).

A new reality.