Political Chatter Over Saxony-Anhalt's Election (Early Sep 2026)

 6 Sep 2026 is the state election day for S-A.

Oddly....NO polling has been done by anyone since mid-March 2026.

How things looked from that poll?  AfD was leading  with 38-percent, and the CDU was sitting at 25-percent. Three other parties were over the 5-percent point, and marginally showing numbers.

I suspect things have changed a bit, and AfD presently sits near 42-percent....with the CDU  in a weakened position (probably barely at 22-percent).

Yeah, it's possible that the SPD falls below the 5-percent point, and that you end up with the BSW folks, the Greens, and Linke...accounting for 20-odd percent.

The non-seat-holding votes adding up to 15-plus percent?  That's the real 'fear'....that you'd have a fair number of votes....without representation and weakening any chance for the CDU to build a coalition

My General Prediction On The Trump Base Closures

 After pondering this for a while....I will offer three predictions:

1.  This first wave out of Germany (the 5,000)....I suspect will be Spang's 52nd Wing, the 10th AAMDC (Missile guys), and at least one additional Army unit....which I think they will all go to one Poland military base (consolidated).

2.   The Spain-Italy exit?  Just a crazy thought....I think this deal-making going on in Morocco....will lead to a US base....with most all of  the US assets in Spain and Italy going to one Moroccan military base (on the Atlantic).

3.  Finally, I suspect that Romania will end with some US assets (out of Germany).  

Pure speculation....but truthfully, Trump can say NATO survives on, but in other locations.  

4 May 2026: Germany: 3 Things

 1.  Trump indicates that closures of military bases in Italy and Spain will also occur.  He's not saying an end to NATO....which begs the question....where would he move operations?

2. All this increased US tariff stuff?  Well....this goes back to an agreement signed by the US and the EU in July of 2025....which was to be set to 15-percent, if the EU accomplished a number of vote-requirements.

Well....on their  'must-do' list....this was not that important....so the vote measures were never done.  Crapped upon the BMW, Mercedes and VW folks?  Yeah....they have a reason to be angry over the lack of attention.

3.  Via the Sunday night forum show (Caren Miosga - moderator)....Chancellor Merz gave a talk.  I watched about 25 minutes of it....he mostly appears with goals, but no real plan....he did threaten the SPD that he has been "very patient so far." 

Mixed message....some Germans say it sounds like the beginning of the end. Some might say that the CDU Party is simply another version of the SPD Party.

3 May 2026: Germany: 4 Things

1.  Timmy-the-whale-update:  Well....he finally exited the barge.  The story now?  Mostly over...I suspect.

2.  The US announcement of 5,000 troops leaving Germany?  Well....Trump updated this slightly....saying  'more' than 5,000 are going.

They aren't saying the 5,000 will return to the US.   My thoughts....the 5,000 will end up in Poland (probably Spang's 52nd Wing as a large part of the 5,000). 

3. Yesterday....Bavaria's Premier-President Söder....gave a talk...suggesting on the abolition of the electricity tax and the solidarity surcharge.

Yeah, it'll freak out the SPD folks.  But most Germans would readily agree on the electricity tax being curtailed/cut.

4.  Two guys were shot in the Neukölln district of Berlin last night....one fairly serious. Police investigating.

What Defeated Russia In Reality?

 I would offer five observations of what happened to cause Russian failure?

1. The Russian generals wanted to fight the 1960s version of their 'war-plan'.....tank-warfare.....Ukraine refused.

2.  NATO quietly gave intelligence 'value' to Ukraine....tons of it in fact.

3.  Drone-warfare became a bigger deal...than tanks.

4.  Russian mentality of minimum training....lessen  their impact on the field.

5.  Russian banking collapse/failures....became a bigger deal than the war itself, but Putin failed to grasp that.

What Caused The Scholz Coalition Collapse In 2024?

There were simply factors from day one....which made the threesome (SPD-Greens-FDP) disagreeable.

Near the end....the trigger-point was a months-long deadlock over the 2025 federal budget. There was going to be a shortfall of funds....which the SPD and Greens pushed for increased public investment and spending.  Lindner of the FDP (Finance Minister) said 'no'....going to the route of strict fiscal discipline. 

If the SPD or Greens had controlled the 'seat' of the Finance Ministry?  Well....they would have gotten the taxes increases, and the FDP would have forced into a corner...mostly grumbling.

How doe this 'frame' fit for the problems currently?  The SPD wants a bigger budget, and to reach it....they insist upon more taxation.  About half of the CDU-CSU crew....aren't that supportive of  the idea.

I'm not saying this is a carbon copy of the 2024 problem....but it has certain elements of that problem.

Why was Merz the CDU 'answer'?  Well....he was to be this economical smart guy....to get the economy back into turbo-mode.  So far, he's failed....which begs a lot of questions.

I will offer this observation...between the energy cost issue....the Russian-Ukraine issue....the import of cheap Chinese goods....and true cost of environmentally saving the Earth, the German economy is stagnant.  It doesn't matter who comes next to be Chancellor, the same issues exist.  

How I Think The Ukraine-Russia 'War' Ends

 Back three years ago....I thought that Putin would 'wake-up' and grasp his no-win situation....I was wrong.  In his epic-mindset....there has to be a surrender of Ukraine.

So the end in my mind....Putin at some point will have a stroke/heart-attack, and goes into hiding for several weeks.  The Putin-in-charge crew keeps the events engaged...but at some point....several of the generals figure out the stroke.

Over a 24-hour period....the Duma gets involved, and there's likely to be a massive shut-down of military operations.

Then....Russian troops just start packing up and leaving the front.  

Mass confusion of who is in charge follows...for several days.

By the 7th day of this new era....there is no military front, and every Russian soldier has left the region.

At this point,  I think it's entirely possible that a break-up occurs....Russia turning into five-to-ten states...maybe more. 

Ukraine...in effect.....wins.  

2 May 2026: Germany: 6 Things

 1.  Timmy-the-whale-update:  Well....they got to the North Sea drop-off point....opened the barge door, and encouraged Timmy to escape.

Timmy said 'no', and has remained in the barge.

They probably have food/supplies to linger for a week, but it doesn't appear that Timmy wants to leave his new 'friends'.  Timmy likes the attention and free-food deal....'freeloader-status'?

2. Chancellor Merz, and the coalition?

Well....lot of chatter has started up....people losing confidence....CDU-CSU losing numbers....heartburn going on.

So....four possible outcomes: (1) CDU-CSU might dissolve the coalition....going minority situation....with very poor outcomes likely. (2) Putting Merz up for a vote of confidence....hoping that the members of the CDU-CSU and SPD would agree....this being very risky. (3) Following a no-confidence vote....asking the members to elect a new Chancellor....without anyone in a clear 'win' category.  (4) Finally....call for a new election....with bad numbers anticipated for the SPD, and CDU-CSU.

Added to the crap?  Well...people are now focused on the Saxony-Anhalt election this fall....with the AfD nearing 40-percent (likely be top winner, but unable to form a gov't).  The retired President of Germany (Gauk) came out yesterday and said that the CDU (likely 2nd place) ought to take up a relationship with the Linke Party and form a gov't coalition for the state.  I would imagine half of all CDU-voters in the state would say 'what-the-hell', and avoid voting for the CDU....going to the AfD and giving them 50-plus percent.  His speech really didn't help matters.

There's a 'path' or two for Merz remaining, but this CDU-CSU and SPD relationship is in a spiral....mostly over tax growth and budget issues.  Oddly, it's almost the same causes for the last coalition to end.

3.  Trump says 5,000 US troops leaving Germany....but didn't say Army or Air Force, or installations.

4.  Jet-fuel shortages look more and more likely by June.

5.  'Social-cohesion' lacking....public poll near 70-percent...in Germany.

6.  If a no-confidence vote occurs, and a new federal election occurs....who do I see as CDU-CSU likely candidate?  My four picks are Markus Söder (CSU), Hendrik Wüst (CDU), and Thorsten Frei (CDU) and Julia Klöckner (CDU).

If you were grading on capabilities....Söder leads.  If you grade on public appeal...Julia Klöckner leads.  If you grade on insider-support (Merkel-wing)....Wüst leads.

From the SPD?  It won't matter....they won't get past 12-percent (both the Greens and Linke will be ahead of them).