State election not until 2029 (fall):
AfD leads with 42-percent.
CDU with 21-percent.
SPD with 6-percent.
BSW with 7-percent.
Greens with 6-percent.
Linke with 9-percent.
Long way away from election....but lays out the path of a problem....no one will partner with AfD...leaving the CDU (2nd place) to form a gov't with 4 partners.
1. Timmy-the-dead-whale-update: Well....during the recovery of the whale's body....the animal experts determined Timmy was a lady-whale. How they missed this fact during the 'help-and-rescue' business? No idea.
2. Marcel Reif, noted German sports journalist....gave a talk yesterday....saying if AfD comes to power....he will exit Germany.
I looked for polling....one came up for 2023....where Germans were asked about leaving if AfD came to power, and number cited was 15-percent. However...they didn't ask where exactly these folks would go.
My wife (German in nature) will get unhinged on occasion and say some leave-Germany-BS.....but she can never cite where this dream-land would be.
3. German Interior Ministry has this idea to offer....to get Syrians to return 'home'. Deal? 8k Euro.
Yeah, lot of criticism popped up over this amount of money suggested.
4. Some discussion popping up over VAT (sales tax) reform. Suggestion popped up with the idea...ZERO VAT for food items....but the normal VAT would go to 21-percent (from current 19-percent).
5. Last night....I watched a interview with FOCUS columnist Jan Fleischhauer, on the ARD talk show "Maischberger."
His chief point....that Germany would be better off with a CDU-CSU-Green coalition.
Quote: "I believe the country would be further along today if there had been a black-green coalition, because the SPD is such a worn-out, broken bunch. As a psychologist, you would say it only shows regressive tendencies. Yes, that's true!"
7. Tempelhof update: For those Americans who might have been stationed in Berlin...during the 'glory-days'....the discussion of re-use is still going on of the airfield.
Present idea? To build 21,400 new apartments on the former airport grounds, 30 percent of which would be reserved for people with housing vouchers. Runway/ramps....to be left as is...with a light woods to be planted on one side.
Berlin will hold elections in September, and the development of Tempelhof Field will once again be a campaign issue.
To some degree....I'd say around 30-to-40 percent of the Berlin public don't want anything done with the field/runway....just making the whole thing a 'park'. This group doesn't want it turning into a drug-use-park.
Only my speculation....where things are leaning right now.
First, confidence with the public with Chancellor Merz is dwindling....to the degree that within three months...I predict that the CDU Party will meet and lead Merz to hand party-leadership over to Bavaria's CSU 'Boss'....Soder.
At that point...for the remainder of the year....ZDF and ARD (the two public TV networks) will weekly interview and 'hype' Soder....leading to a lesser view of Merz. Around the end of 2026....the CDU executive committee will talk to Merz and say....for the good of upcoming state elections in 2027, you need to cite some reason to leave.
Then based on CDU-CSU-SPD support....Soder gets the role.
AfD? By January of 2027....I see them close to 33-percent of public support, and the CDU-CSU folks near 19-percent.
2027 will be a odd year.....where some marginal improvement occurs for the CDU-CSU (back up to 21-percent, and the SPD slipping to national numbers of 9-percent. The Greens and AfD together....will amount to near 50-percent of the national polling mid-2027.
The top two problems seen by the public? Economic woes, and the fact that 50-percent of those on German welfare are non-Germans.
AfD will figure the connection of the two issues, and this will be the top theme for the remainder of 2027.
Soder ends up being respected, but unable to resolve the budget/economic problems.....with the partnership of the SPD being unable to fix much of anything.
At some point in 2028....early election occurs....with the public frustrated with both the CDU-CSU and the SPD. AfD? They are able to 'win' with around 35-percent of the vote, but no party will partner-up for the coalition. So you end up with a vastly weakened CDU-CSU, SPD, Greens....mostly leaning left.
Public frustration? Doomed...the coalition likely lasts two years max.
At some point....after 2030....AfD will be near 50-percent on the win, and the freak-out of journalists, and the left-audience will occur. The burden on the welfare system....cleared within one year. What folks will eventually say....if you work and pay taxes....you aren't a burden on the system, and that the CDU-CSU and SPD always had this 'tool'....never using it.
1.Timmy-the-whale-update. Well...Timmy, of course...is dead....floating near the Danish coast. Denmark says they will recover Timmy, and perform a autoposy.
2. WELT piece, presently....the German gov't is the only one in a hiring-plus-up....industry and commerce...slacking.
3. Just a odd PR-gimmick....Chancellor Merz (CDU Party) is on a 'outing' with the SPD Party....trying to drum up public standing for them.
At some point yesterday.....he says: "I don't just stand on the left, I also come from the left."
Fair number of CDU-voters commented on social media.....perhaps there's a reason why they aren't buying in Merz's job performance.
4. INSA, the polling folks....came up with a poll on the German Chancellor's preference. One in three Germans wants Alice Weidel (AfD) as chancellor. Only 22-percent want Merz. But the winner? 36-percent of Germans who don't see anyone with the 'talents' for Chancellor.
To be honest....ever since Covid....there's been a lack of confidence in Chancellors.
5. New buy-a-E-car program.....you could get up to 6k Euro on a purchase of a E-car.
Based on numbers....fair comment to say that E-car buying has slacked-off/peaked. Maybe this bonus will help.
6. Heat wave by Monday? Well...there's weather chatter suggesting 30C (86 F) for my valley.
7. Bavaria state: statistical data got out....from Burgergeld (welfare pay)....55-percent of folks getting it....are non-German.
It'll be discussed and heavy criticism will come over this.
Well....yeah. Announced yesterday. The German Defense Ministry announced that the Bundeswehr will send one Patriot missile battery and 150 German soldiers.
Deployment is scheduled to begin at the end of June 2026 and last 90 days.
The German unit will replace a U.S. Patriot unit currently stationed in Turkey and will operate under NATO’s Integrated Air and Missile Defense situation.
AfD: 29-percent (up 1)
CDU-CSU: 22-percent (down 1)
Greens: 14-percent (up 1.5)
SPD: 12.5 percent (down .5)
LINKE: 10.5 percent
BSW: 3.5 percent
FDP: 3.5 percent
Observation: If you were on the left of the spectrum....voting SPD....you likely are eyeballing the Greens as a alternative. If you add up the lefty-group....it's near 40-percent of the public currently....but heavily divided.
1. MDR (regional public TV network....to eastern region of Germany)...announced yesterday....for next 3 years, no Tatort episode productions from their region. Cash-flow problem. TV crew/team heavily critical of decision.
Basically....the 'governors' limited increase on TV tax to public TV, and the reaction are staged 'cuts'. What will fill the hours? No one says much....probably reruns, game-shows, and older movies.
I sat four nights ago...watching a 1963 cowboy movie at prime-time while watching a regional public channel. 'Nevada Smith'.....excellent movie, but odd to be in prime-time setting.
2. 2,995 gas stations (of 15,240 stations) have violated the twelve-noon gas pricing rule. No word if gov't will 'punish' them.
3. Weidel (AfD 'Boss') has moved in the popular politician listing to the top five of Germany (1st time ever). Oddly, in the ranking....she's higher than Bavaria's Soder.
4. US doctor who had been in Africa.....has ebola....now kept in Germany.
5. My impression of AfD's Björn Höcke?
Intelligent guy....educated...I'd rank at least two AfD folks ahead of him on party status.
Negative? If he gives speeches....there's always this 'hint' of nationalism...leading back to speeches of the 1930s. Maybe accidental....maybe intentional.
Currently....he's a state-player....not on the national path.
6. 'Jump' and 'Orange' were driving schools in the Berlin region. One day (in the past month)....they (the management)....up and disappeared....with all the deposits.
Path leads to Bulgaria....fake schools. Authorities investigating.
7. Become apparent after the police had to shoot that escaped tiger in Leipzig....there is NOT a national code of rules on exotic animals. What rules do exist....differs state by state.
Going to be a discussion....to have a national regulation about keeping dangerous pets.
