Seven Observations Over Poland (Since Yesterday)

 1 For a typical average Pole....it's confusing.  If you were a pro-Tusk gal/guy....you get your news via a pro-Tusk source....which means no one utters 'coup'.  If you were a pro-Nawracki guy/gal....you get your news via a pro-Nawrocki source, which means 'coup' gets uttered in every 4th sentence.  If you got you news via the BBC or ARD (German public TV)....you get about 30 seconds of 'something'....which might discuss a right-wing conspiracy (against Tusk).  

Oddly, a lot of commentary/video exists on Twitter/X, triggering folks to ask stupid questions.

2.  President Nawrocki this AM....suggesting that the Tusk-crew are resorting to blackmail?  Yeah....he suggested it.

3.  Police resorting to a question-template....when given questionable orders....are asking police-leadership for a paper-copy of the order (signed).  Bad sign on trust.

4.  Just about everything in the crisis/chaos....revolves around the Constitution....what it says, and what it doesn't say.

It might be correct to say....it does NOT benefit Tusk, but he doesn't have the votes to change or update the Constitution.

Oddly, the EU is trying to suggest guidelines or changes....but it lacks a Constitution entirely and has little power to push anything.

5.  This suggestion that the fall 2027 Poland parliamentary election might be cancelled?  BS.

Power to cancel it....can only come from the President....NOT Tusk.

Tusk could stage a no-confidence vote and have an early-election....but at this point....it doesn't benefit him or his party.  

Tusk supreme court inventing a law out of thin-air....to remove Nawrocki as President?   This is probably the only angle to suggest....but you'd invite massive crowds/chaos, and trigger questions around the EU about the 'trigger'.

6.  Some crazy folks are suggesting a counter-coup....to the coup, with other folks suggesting a counter-counter-coup...while others are suggesting a counter-counter-counter-coup.

7.  In viewing the chaos....you have to wonder what Putin is motivated to do at this point.  Should he bring down the Nawrocki gov't or the Tusk-coalition?  Should he bring both down?  Should he do nothing?

Five Things I Expect To Occur In Germany By 2035

 1.  I expect the sugar tax going onto sodas....to be extended to foods/candies/sweets.  At some point, I expect a push for just a plain sugar tax on bulk sugar by itself.

2.  I expect a E-scooter regulation to be mandated....with a age requirement (likely to be 16 or above).

3.  I expect a age mandate to be established for all streaming-video networks offered in Germany (best guess, age 16 minimum).

4.  I expect the national voting age to be lowered to age 16.

5.  I expect the AfD Party (unsuccessfully) to push for a IQ test on incoming migrants, and a minimum score to get 'status'.  Part of the negativity of this...will circle back to 10-percent of Germans not meeting the minimum.  

Looking Ahead At The 20th

 From Saturday evening's looting/'bad-boy' behavior.....there's a fair amount of hostility brewing around Frankfurt.  This AM....there's a discussion to start up from Frankfurt-City level, and Hessen-state level...to ban the next demonstration date (20 Nov).

There is such a thing in Germany as the right to assemble/protest.....however, you have to establish your location/walk with the police and basically get their permission.  In most cases that I've noted...police rarely turn down a protest march....but they may require it to be along a certain route (mostly over safety concerns)

What likely comes out of the talk?  I would imagine a protest will be allowed on the 20th by the Gen-Z crowd....with a time limit of x-number of hours (probably shutting down by 5 PM).  There's likely a police-order existing after 5 PM....if you gather and misbehave....you end up detained and cited.

Gen-Z folks being 'used' by the pro-break-in folks?  Well....there are two groups in the mix.  

On the legal side?   There is such a thing as Breach of the Peace (Landfriedensbruch, § 125 StGB), which basically says participating in violent crowds or riots that endanger public safety could carry the  penalties of a fine,  or up to 3 years in prison (or 6 months to 10 years in aggravated cases).

So you could be viewed by forty different cameras....caught throwing a rock at a policeman....get detained and dragged into a court....facing a year in prison very easily.  That's just for throwing a rock and missing the cop.  Actually hitting him?  You could end up with five to ten years.

EU Rights? Yes, or No

 I noted in social commentary today....the question came up...does the EU have a constitution?

I spent around 30 minutes reading over this, and the 'answer'.

NO, there is NO EU constitution.

There was an attempt around 2004/2005...basically, the idea was...the EU would draft up one, and each 'state' would vote to accept it.

Right off the bat...vote came in France and Netherlands....both failing.  Summer of 2005....the whole idea got dumped, and has never come up again.

I sat last night....some interview with a EU representative...trying to talk over Poland and saying that the EU requires certain procedures/processes with a EU member's Supreme Court.  It stuck out in my mind today...wondering...where such EU power exists.  Well...there is no such expectation or 'power'.

What rights you, or your company, or your dog have.....is based strictly off your home-country.  If you hauled off to Greece or Ireland....you basically get a 'free' way to rights of that country.

The one impression I get...a lot of journalists since Saturday....seem to be hyped-up over the EU and talking rights....but it's basically BS.  

German Police Penion While Injured On Duty?

I looked it up today....roughly in the range of 2,000 to 3,500 Euro a month...for a Stadtpolizist (city/municipal or state police officer) who is a Beamter, injured on duty (Dienstunfall), and forced into medical retirement (Dienstunfähigkeit) due to it. 

Exact level?  Depends on rank, stage (Stufe), years of service, age, family status, the specific Bundesland (rules and pay tables differ), and how the accident is classified (by a police board exam).

Years ago, in my military years....I worked with a American guy who spent 2 years building his case for a medical-retirement. It's not a easy path.

So in these riots....as you get injuried....in each case, the guy/gal is taken to a hospital, and documents are collected.  Maybe one riot....maybe five or six riots....but eventually, you present your case for early retirement.

'Smoke' Clears Over Frankfurt Riot Action

 As of noon today....police reports indicate: roughly 100 police injured/wounded...54 individuals arrested and released for a court appearance later, and five shops down-town looted.

On total criminal charges at this point?  87.

Roughly 350-odd folks were stopped and forced to ID themselves.

What the local cops say?  Two groups exist.....one being students who didn't destroy anything, and the other around the Zeil shopping district...mostly described as mob-like.  Were the mob-players mostly non-German?  Well...yeah, police did bring up this description (public TV uttered it as well).

Police looking at video?  Yeah....that got brought up....analyzing minute-by-minute and continuing a ID effort.  It's possible via the 350 folks ID'ed....and video....another fifty-odd folks will be notified to come in for a judge-session and possible fine/jail-time.

The Zeil district with a lot of cameras?  I've walked the district on a number of occasions.....I bet there's at least a hundred cameras there, and there's probably over 3,000 hours of coverage.  If you did anything of a stupid nature....caught on video, and they forced you to ID 3 or 4 hours prior....there's a high probability of court action on your calendar.  Add onto the cameras....the Romer area about 3 minutes walking....there's probably forty-odd cameras there.  The subway areas (I can think of five platforms in the area)....where you might be observed.

Some advice....if you gather for a demonstration/riot in the early part of the 'show'....then the cops approach you for a ID check....it's best to leave then for home and not be stupid.

How Are Polish Supreme Court Justices Put Into Office

Back 1997....as the national Constitution was drafted and finalized....Article 179 was inserted.  It says....that judges are appointed for an indefinite period by the President (NOT the PM) on the motion of the National Council of the Judiciary. 

The chief Justice?  Well...the 'First President of the Supreme Court' is appointed by the President for a 6-year term....from a list of five names....proposed by the General Assembly of Judges of the Supreme Court. 

Requirements to be on the court?  Normal stuff....citizenship, legal qualifications, experience, high character.

This idea that the PM can appoint?  It would only happen if the Constitution were changed (yet to be openly discussed).

Article 235 covers changing of the Constitution, and it requires three key features:

1 A bill proposed by at least one-fifth of Sejm deputies (or by the Senate or the President).

2.  Adoption by the Sejm with a two-thirds majority (in the presence of at least half the statutory number of deputies). With 460 seats in the mix....mean 307 have to support it. (in case you were wondering....PM Tusk does NOT have that number of votes).

3.  Then an absolute majority in the Senate. (oddly for PM Tusk, this is heavily in his favor....he holds around 60 seats of the 100).

The EU chatter about 'respect for the PM'?  The Constitution would need a re-write/change...for Tusk to have such 'respect'.  

When the President hints that a whole new Judge staff might be accomplished?  He'll select the crew, and swear them in....not PM Tusk.  

How Polling Looks For the Fall 2027 Poland Parliament Election?

 Poll done in the past 2 weeks?

KO (Tusk's party) ahead in first place....33-percent.

His partners?  P-Z at 4.33 percent.  P-2050 at 2.65.  Lewica at 7.10.

President's party?  Second place, at 22.35 percent. Confederation at 12.25 percent. Development-Plus Party at 5.19 percent. Crown-Party at 7.84 percent. PSL at 3.5 percent.

If you asked about a drop after the coup business?  I'd suggest that a quarter of the four parties under Tusk....probably are NOT thrilled over what happened and might find a different voting trend.  

For KO....figure a 3-to-5 point drop.  

I hate to suggest it....but it's like some idiot talked the pro-coup BS into occurring, and never considered failure damaging the 2027 election results.

Leadership within KO?  Wouldn't shock me if by late December....they start pushing Tusk out, and getting a fresh new face for the election of 2027.