6 June 2026: Germany: 5 Things

 1.  This Germany-UN-Seat Drama?

For a couple of years....Germany has been on some weird trend.....desperately waiting for this vote and expecting to get a seat on the top Security Council. In the midst of this....they even paid more  on 'dues' (roughly 3-to-4 billion Euro) to impress folks.  Well....it failed. 

So....my impression?  If you asked folks....around 80-percent of population would say it's not in their top 500 priorities.  Same crowd would say it gets you 'nothing'....if you held a seat. Probably 50-percent of folks are asking now.....you really went and gave them 3-billion Euro of free money?

The odd remainder?  Well....the intellectual folks want to talk over the drama and find the blame. The five things I hear?  Blame Putin.   Blame support for Israel.  Blame Trump.  Blame China.

If you ask me....I think they acted like 12-year-old kids the past couple of years.....hinting always on the vote, and they deserve to be voted 'in'.  

2.  Timmy-the-lady-whale-update.

Autopsy wrapped up.  Experts say they can't find a cause of death. Other than building a statue for Timmy....I  think the saga is finished.

3.  US says it'll stop sale of Tomahawk missiles to Germany.  Chief reason?  Well....Putin says it's a threat.

4.  Germany talking over regulating the entry of Ukrainian men into Germany....suggesting that they should stay at home and fight.

5. US gave NATO a list of asset which are 'leaving' Europe shortly (downsizing):

 - Currently 99 F-16 multi-purpose fighters in Europe, 63 will remain.  Currently 54 F-15E heavy fighter-bombers, 36 will remain.  They don't say which bases are affected....but would only come from Aviano, Spang,  and Lakenheath.  

- All long-range reconnaissance drones from Europe to leave. In addition, the number of MQ-9 strike UAVs will be halved.

- Naval?  The number of cruisers and destroyers will be cut in half. Submarine carriers of cruise missiles will be completely withdrawn. 

- Bomber deployments....temp stationing in the UK?  To end, period.

How quick?  Wording hinted at a couple of weeks for some....up to six months max.

The Decline of Germany Connected To Deindustrialization?

 Deindustrialization in Germany didn't start in recent years....it probably goes back to 1990s, with each year....presenting a 'step'.

Defining it?  The decline in German manufacturing output, employment, and global competitiveness, particularly in energy-intensive sectors like chemicals, steel, glass, and autos......was more prevalent than a complete collapse of industry. 

This 'path' taken....while having deep roots....simply accelerated dramatically due to a combination of policy choices, geopolitical shocks, and structural pressures. And no....while some is just plain bad luck....some of the 'step's' were planned.

I would suggest that things took off around 2010-to-2015 with warning signs emerging.....rising competition from China.....slow digitalization.....high labor/regulatory costs, and infrastructure gaps. 

The Russian natural gas mess, and Covid?   They simply speeded-up the process.

Where things emerge in ten years (say 2035)?  Survival mode will kick in, and I predict around 500,000 to 1-million Germans a year will be exiting....to countries with less issues. 

The key point?  Within three-to-four years....one of the major car-brands of Germany will either shut-down, or exit Germany. At that point, the clock starts to tick.  Might be Opel....might be VW.....might even be Porsche.

Change In Law Coming?

 I noted this AM....Saxony's Minister of Justice wants to advocate for the abolition of the criminal offense of insulting politicians. 

To get the job done....the Conference of Ministers of Justice (national group) is to pass a corresponding resolution next week and present it to the Federal Minister of Justice.

Why?

Well....a couple of months ago....some Germans using social media....called a certain German politician (thin-skinned type)....a liar.  More or less....they suggested he promised 'X', and had yet to deliver.

This guy went to the legal system....using current laws, and took the chatty folks (using the word 'liar') into court.   Result....guilty....one month's salary taken as the 'fee'.

This has (in the  past month) gotten a lot of attention, and even the AfD Party has focused upon this....saying it's not right.

What you can say...presently?  You could wish that so-and-so would tell the truth more often, or just wish politicians would avoid talking/BSing.   But  to call them a liar.....no, that gets you into court-woes.

Is German Urban Culture Dying?

There is this odd desolation of German city centers going on....where you get the feeling that 'something' is dying/dissolving....and mostly replaced by dreariness and barrenness.

Around the late 1990s....walking through Kaiserslautern, Mainz and Wiesbaden....I started to notice little things....where store-fronts were closed....big-name shops were being replaced, and less people were noted.

Year by year....the barrenness expands.

Less money part of this spiral?  I would suggest that the working-class Germans over the past two generations....have less to really spend, and staying home as much as possible....is a realistic goal now.

There is particular store-front in Wiesbaden....where if you count since 2019....there's been four different attempts to 'plant' a commercial operation....with each failing.  Last month, I noticed the fifth attempt to start up.

Swiss Pool Policy Unfolding

 Summer has arrived....pools opening in Switzerland

So....if you a Swiss citizen....you pay a standard entry fee.

If you are a non-Swiss person (mostly meaning French).....you pay double.

This policy addresses repeated incidents of sexual harassment of young Swiss women, aggression, and pool rule violations mainly by groups of young French visitors crossing the nearby border when French pools closed.

Why did the French pools close? Well....too much bad-boy crap.

Swiss support of the policy?  Oddly.....it appears that 90-plus percent of Swiss think it's the right thing to do.

Note, the Swiss 'Green-card' folks are safe....it seems to be mostly the  French 'kids' who are aggressive. 

4 June 2026: Germany; 6 Things

 1. Poll done....by Wahlen.  Topic....how is the economy of Germany doing?

Results?  Crap....40-percent.  Marginally positive....45-percent. Good....13-percent. Very good.....ZERO-percent.

The last time they did this same poll (Jan 2026).....1-percent said 'very good', and a majority said 'good'.

Yeah.....the general  sentiment in Germany is  that something is broke...economically.

2.  Vote came up yesterday at the UN....to  give Germany a 'seat' on the council.  The Germans were convinced....they'd cleared all the hurdles, and made folks happy....to earn a vote.  Well....Portugal and Austria got the vote....Germany failed.

Watching the news folks on ARD/ZDF tell this story last night....I felt like it was a kid's argument at the playground....where they felt they'd been nice to everyone...earning something.

3. Some rumor/BS.....started up....Greens wanting to get support for the President election in January 2027....to replace Frank-Walter Steinmeier with Annalena Baerbock.  

Some chatter indicating that the position ought to be for a female.

4.   WELT article this AM.....exodus of high-wage-earners of Germany being noticed.

5.  Now costs 12 Euro (per person) to enter the  Koln Cathedral.  

6. I watched a podcast where the topic of  Russian reservists came up (they were being activated).  So the letter told the guy what to bring....listing around a dozen items.

On  the list....toilet paper (fair amount), soap, shampoo, long-thermal underwear, and so on.  Basically....the Army wasn't in a position to issue anything.

July 1977.....I asked the Air Force recruiter on what to bring.  Gym bag....two changes  of clothing,  $40, tooth-brush/tooth-paste.  That was it. Second day at bootcamp....they issued around $100,  and led us to a BX.

The 5,000 Pound Guerrilla In The Room

I noticed today....several news stories talking of  a money-pit now existing with the Germany Federal Employment Agency (BA).

So....the basic story.....BA now faces a worse-than-expected cash shortfall for 2026....we are talking with a deficit projected at over 5 billion Euro....perhaps on up to 8 billion.

Cause?  Well.....higher unemployment and a weaken economy.

So....there's got to be a new  tax revenue 'path' created.

Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil.....I suspect....has probably a group working on this, and after summer vacation....will deliver a  fairly big new tax project.

The bad news.....this is purely to cover 2026.....then you get into 2027, and 2028....unless some miracle occurs....will require increased tax revenue as well.

What kind of harsh taxation is coming?  Anyone's guess.  

The problem here....is that Merz and his 'team' (the CDU-CSU).....were  voted  in to correct the economy....get things stabilized, and avoid unnecessarily inflating taxation.  

So if a new Chancellor is the 'solution'....with more taxes coming....don't go expecting the economy to improve.  Early election.....my bet. 

How To Simplify The Chancellor Exit-Issue

 Soccer scenario.

X-city has a losing record for their  team....so they scouted for a new coach.  They (the executive committee) hired Coach Merz. They hired this guy because he had a strategy for  'winning', bringing the economy back, and ensuring jobs.

But at this shift in manpower....the team hired assistant coaches (SPD) who were not tuned into Coach Merz's strategy.  The assistant coaches gave priority to cities in debt, reform, higher benefits, and more taxes.

About 18 months into Coach Merz's contract....it's obvious that the team is 50-50.....not really winning....not really losing.

Disgruntled....they are discussing now the dismissal of Coach Merz....to bring either Coach Hendrik Wüst....who seems to be more of a intellectual coach....not really a economics coach.  The other choice is Coach Markus Söder....who might be slightly into economics more than than the other guy.

Whoever they hire as coach....he's left with the assistant coaches who aren't reading his strategy or notes......likely to mean 12-to-18 months of 50-50 play, and the city feeling disgruntled.

Added note:  Well....rumors started up....that the CSU (a sister party of the CDU and ONLY in Bavaria)....is open to the idea of teaming up with the Freie Wahler (Free  Voters Party).....to campaign across the 15 other states.  The two slightly more conservatives than the CDU?  Yeah.

Anyone's guess that the two might take votes away from the CDU and alienate the CDU-CSU relationship greatly.  

My thoughts?  Having the CSU-FW Party nationwide?  They'd probably take 50-percent of CDU votes.....meaning a national poll situation (CSU-FW near 10-percent and CDU nationally near 10-to-12) percent).

Dividing the nation even more?  Yeah.

BS strategy?  Maybe....but the question is....has the CDU dug itself a mighty big hole and can't climb out presently?