On the 20th of September.....a Sunday....in the German state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern....a state election will occur.
Polling current puts the CDU at 6-percent.
If the poll guys are wrong...if the CDU pulls 4.9-percent or less....it turns in a fairly big mess, which the journalists will spend the next month talking about this 'failure'.
Between the AfD and SPD? They (by the polls) are pulling together around 66-percent. In third-place are the Linke Party at 12-percent.
1. If something has already occurred (history-wise)....can some journalist use the term 'prophet' in describing what has already occurred? I saw this use today in German print-media.
2. This SPD-candidate for Berlin (city) election.....under investigation. Reading over the hype this AM....three separate issues. Two of them....cases of accepting undue advantages.
I'll admit...it's hurting the SPD numbers....with the election in the next 30 days. If you felt bad about this....you'd still have the Greens or Linke Party to vote for.
Polling presently for this election? SPD at 12-percent. Linke Party leading with 21-percent. CDU at 20-percent. AfD at 18-precent, and Greens at 16-percent.
3. Premier-President of the Pfalz (state)....made a statement yesterday....that kids entering the German school system have to speak German. Tests by the state will be mandated. If you can't speak German upon entry.....it's simply a waste of time. Rather odd how we reached this point.
4. SPD pushing agenda....no more 'cash-only' situations. You'd have to offer card-acceptability. About twelve times a year....I come across a situation where the entry sign notes this. The other 99-percent of situations....offer both cash/card.
Frank-Walter Steinmeier’s second five-year term as President of Germany ends on 18 March 2027. I looked it up this afternoon.
The Federal Convention is scheduled to elect his successor on 30 January 2027.
Intense chatter on 'candidates'? Probably will start in November. Only Bundestag members can vote.
The two parties (probably no more than 5 or 6 from each party) gather in a conference room, with a scrip book.....they will have prioritized the important things and outlined what can be 'given-up'.
In the case of BSW (bit far to the left) and AfD (bit to the right)....they have both agreed that having border-control is a absolute. Beyond that....nothing much has been learned yet.
At the end....if this works....they will have a list of 'posts' assigned to parties, and agree upon most of the hot-projects for the next 12 months.
BSW badly needs a public image....so I'm guessing they agree to a fair amount of what AfD wants, and come to three or four things....which have to be in their favor.
Will the coalition last five years? Anyone's guess here. BSW is in some hopes for 2027....next year' state elections....that they can show progress, and gain votes.
Two odd groups in some agreement? Yeah....it's fairly weird. Added to this....both are pro-Russia to some degree, and anti-US to some degree.
1. Group of CDU political folks (nat'l level) are taking a opposition point to Merz....on tax-chatter. They are saying the new discussed plastic-tax is a no-go. Also discussed....the new crypto-currency tax. And the sugar tax.
These taxes mostly pushed by SPD Party to Merz? Yeah. Without full support of the CDU....these may not go into effect.
2. Meerbusch (NW Germany, near Dusseldorf).....guy approaches police waving a knife around. After several orders to drop it....they fire....killing the guy.
3. 11 AM today....national siren/alarm day....test throughout Germany occurs.
4. BSW Party accepts fully....in Saxony-Anhalt....coalition talks with AfD Party.
5. SPD Party top candidate for the Berlin-City state-election coming up....raided by the police. Some of political donation accusation. Timing of this...makes one think it was a set-up.
6. This sub-station saboteur guy (arrested by the police)....was not employed (long-term) and apparently 'survived' off pocket-money that his mother gave him.
German authorities came out today (Wed)....to say 'yes, we will help Ukraine identify young Ukrainian men in Germany....to return 'home' and fight for the fatherland'.
Basically....these are young men (20s, 30s and probably 40s)...who have a legit ID card (green-card) and probably getting some German gov't aid.
What are the numbers? German data from 31 October 2025 (including pre-war residents), broken down as roughly 87,000 aged 18–24, 168,000 aged 25–45, and 73,000 aged 46–60.
Guys willing to return? No. I would imagine zero nature.
Guys in Germany who are not noted by the Germans? No one says much....but I might go and suggest a minimum of 10,000 quietly residing.
I worked in a Air Force office/shop at the end of my career....where the boss (a Major) was a risk-taker. It was obvious from day one, and you could pretty much guarantee....if a situation came up requiring decision-making....there was a brief moment of concern and a marginal 'minute' pondering consequences....then he'd make the bold move. After a while (a long while)....I got used to it, and started think and react like he did.
What he gave me in terms of perceiving risks and consequences....was this idea that there had to be a 'gain' worth the risk taken.
I came later to the idea that the majority of people simply aren't capable of viewing consequences in their actions, or admitting they committed serious errors in their actions.
When the 'revolutions' started up in the Middle East and refugees started to look for exit/entry signs....the Germans never got into the consequences mindset. Even if you get to 2016....3 years into the migration issues....admitting the consequences was not possible.
AfD being a consequence? You could make that case today. The people who vote for AfD? Well....they used to be CDU-voters, SPD-voters, Linke-voters, FDP-voters, and even Green-voters.
This is one of the odd things that public TV (ARD/ZDF) never really discuss much.
The layer of issues surrounding crime, assaults, and negative public safety numbers? You could make the case that it's really not that bad. Course, you'd be comparing it mostly against data existing around 2010/2012..not the 1990s or 1980s.
The 250,000 on the deportation list? Yeah, that's a consequence.
The PISA study on German educational numbers for 2025....looking crappy? Yeah, that's a consequence.
Blaming someone or some party? I don't think it's really possible at this point. It achieves nothing.
Having a open and fair discussion over consequences? I don't think that's really possible now. You'd have to admit things, and agree to serious resolutions.
Odd problem to have.
First, he'd give a letter to President Steinmeier, and he'd (Steinmeier) ask Merz to stay as a 'temp'. He can decline this, and Steinmeier would then ask the SPD back-up Chancellor (Lars Klingbeil) to assume the job temporarily.
We move to step two then.
A new Chancellor must then be elected by the Bundestag under Article 63. The process has up to three rounds: The President proposes a candidate (one assumes a CDU-guy/gal), but he might shock folks by picking a non-party person. That person needs an absolute majority of all 630 Bundestag members (316 votes).
If that fails, the Bundestag has 14 days to elect someone with an absolute majority on its own.....meaning no suggestion by the President works.
If that also fails, a third ballot is held. A relative majority (most votes) is then enough. The President then decides whether to appoint that person (even if it produces a minority government) or dissolve the Bundestag and call snap elections.
Minority gov't? It'd dampen 2027 state elections, and likely hurt both the CDU-CSU Party and the SPD Party.
Getting a SPD Chancellor out of this? I'd give it better than 50-percent odds. Top guy? Boris Pistorius (Defense Minister currently).
Helpful for the AfD brand? Some folks might argue that having Merz resign...is very helpful for the AfD brand.
Steinmeier gone in January 2027? Well....term ends, and there's folks planning nominees.....probably to have a Bundestag 'vote' by November. CDU might be hoping that they get their person put into place, and a Merz-exit would have better conditions. Could this secret CDU 'winner' put their own name up for the Chancellor job? The law has conditions....to prevent that.
Any of this scenario being discussed currently...in the open? Oddly....no.
