Welfare Landscape

 This past week....Focus went out and asked the German gov't....just how many folks are on 'citizen's income'....welfare.

So the number comes to  5.2-million....out of 84-million.

But they asked....how many are non-German.  It comes to around 47-percent....mostly to Iraqis, Syrians and Ukrainians.  

The magic number.... 21.7-billion Euro....to non-Germans.

Whether the Chancellor and the coalition really grasp this....they don't really have 20-odd billion Euro to throw around.

This providing more voter conflict?  Probably so.  

Good EU Demographics News

 The EU has been surveying demographic data, and come to a conclusion.

Good news....EU-wide population is projected to collapse by 50-plus million by 2100.

Birth-rate collapse.

The top leadership didn't say much.  I'm guessing they are huddled up and talking about some regulation....forcing you in some fashion to have more kids.  

My three suggestions?

1.  Put a 25-Euro tax on individual condoms or birth-control....unless you have already two kids.

2.  Have some type of monthly pay deal for women....say 750 Euro 'pay' per month to have kids.

3.  Start a science project to enable men to have kids, without the women involved.

The news that they didn't discuss?  Well...what happens by 2200?  Another 175-million drop in population?

(Note, I can be sarcastic at times)

Labor Productivity Chatter

 Scale of relationship between US and Germany....on labor productivity....from unification day....to now.

They were at one time...probably for three decades....even.  Then by 2000....the change started.

Over-regulation is the big-factor?  I think at the top level of company executives for Germany....probably 99-percent agree.

The odd factor?  Lets be honest....the Bush, Obama, Trump-1 era, and Biden....the US kept adding regulations as well....it's just that Germany doubled down on top of what the US was doing.

The Five Polling Organizations

 Germany has five organizations that I give a thumbs up to....being reliable on polls: INSA, YouGov, FG Wahlen, Forsa, and Allensbach.

This AM....lot of  chatter over weekend polling results.  Three of the five show AfD two to three points ahead of the CDU-CSU.  Allensbach shows CDU-CSU one point ahead  of the AfD.

SPD numbers on all three....crap (down in the 12-point range).

So I'll make three observations:

1.  Lefty-voters are split three ways: Linke, SPD, and Greens.  To a much lesser degree...even BSW (4-points) is pulling lefty-voters.

2.   Merz and his CDU-CSU crew....are marginally delivering any legislation that the public appreciates.

3.  For roughly three years after Covid ended as a big-deal....the SPD-Green-FDP  coalition marginally delivered, and the economy was simply 'floating'....the public felt Merz and the crew could deliver.  So here we are 16 months into the Merz era, and no real change.  

So I'll just say it....nothing about AfD policy really changes the economic trends.  The only slight suggestion is that if they did pursue a exit-policy on migrants....out of the 47-percent of non-Germans  on the state-welfare program....maybe half of them would be cut off the social-welfare fund. Beyond that...what Germans are seeking....AfD can't really provide that kind of change.

19 Apr 2026: Germany: Three Things

 1.  Emergency meeting  for tomorrow (Monday).....Federal Economics Minister Katherina Reiche....Federal Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil.

Meeting players?  German airlines, suppliers, and associations.

Concern?  Jet-fuel problems within four to six weeks.

Some people discussing  worst case  scenario.....lot of mid-May flights probably to be curtailed.

2. Josie Rath....wrote an interesting summary for WELT....concerning how things in Germany are now be politicized to a maximum degree.  Worth a read.

From hobbies, to clothing styles....there's now  a creation machine to make something 'rightist' or 'leftish'.

I have to admit...if you walked around Germany in the 1990s....there was nothing like this in existence.  Past ten to fifteen years....it's created out of thin air.  It feels like a on-going 24-hour lecture.

3.  The wife and I ended up at the Frankfurt Flughafen last night....early turn-in of bags (24 hours prior to the flight).  

I was pretty shocked...20 min drive over....easy park (4 Euro)....walked in....NO line....got the boarding pass after swiping my passport....bag 'tag' pumped out....put the bags through the system....took a total of 20 min to walk and  accomplish the process.  At 7 PM....weren't that many people in the airport.

Saved about an hour if I'd waited till this afternoon to drag the bags over.

Will be in Berlin for a couple of days (if you don't see updates, that's the reason). 

EU Jet Fuel Chatter

 Late yesterday....EU politicians started up a talk....to essentially trim back on jet-fuel  purchases from the Middle East,  and ramp up more purchase situations from the US.

Amount?  They are talking of a 75-percent cut on Mid-East fuel contracts.

Where this leads onto?  I'd suggest a 2026 trend where US oil companies benefit greatly.  Long-term?  They will eventually go back to the old trend....but I'd  suggest that the US companies for the next 12-to-18 months benefit.

This shortage chatter?  There might be a 30-to-60 day period where some flights are curtailed....until the supply gets back to a norm.

EU Age App?

If you weren't aware....the EU has some type of regulation they will push....requiring everyone to have a Age Verification app on their cellphone, computer, or tab.

It'll verify in some fashion....your age (from federal data they collect already).

So some folks you'd associate with hacking....got to test it this week.

Yeah....it was hacked with little to no effort.

From what I see....when you set it up, the app asks you to create a PIN. 

This PIN isn't actually tied to the identity data it's supposed to protect. 

So the hacker can delete a couple of entries from a file on the phone/tab....restart the app....create a new PIN, and the app happily hands over the original user's verified identity credentials. 

There's other issues, but just this alone....makes it a problem.

I'm not saying this is the end of the idea....but whoever developed it....probably has another six months of development....before they can force it upon people.

Just Odd

 ZDF, German public TV...Channel 2.....based out of Mainz....is apparently looking for young adults for a new documentary piece....who have some type of  strained relationship....with their parents, because they are voting for AfD.

I guess in this understanding.....if you were CDU-associated, but your parents were Linke or Green Party....you need not apply.

From what I see on social media....it got a lot of criticism....for searching for such  participants.

The fact that a fair amount of the 'support' for AfD comes from the 18-to-30 year-olds?  Well...it's best not to bring up this factor.

If I were guessing....they will find forty-odd participants....but at least five of them will be 'faking-it'.