Unhappy German Voters

'Bild am Sontag'....the Sunday newspaper in Germany that a fair number of folks  read....will have results of a survey in tomorrow's edition....done by Insa.

So....70- percent of German eligible voters are dissatisfied with Chancellor Merz's work/accomplishments.

At this point....only 21 percent are satisfied. 

The coalition?   Well...73 percent of voters are dissatisfied.  Yeah, it is a record.

How it splits out politically? 69 percent of SPD voters and 56 percent of CDU/CSU supporters are dissatisfied with the coalition's performance. 

They also show more  disgruntled in the east....than the west.

What this leads onto?  There's no national election until early 2029.  The CDU-CSU and SPD folks are 'safe' at present.....but unless they can show accomplishments...things are in a crappy spiral.

Economics playing a large part of this?   Yeah....Merz  was supposed to be the guy to lead the nation back to prosperity. 

Crisis Chatter

From  an hour ago....in Berlin....near Lake Tegel....around 12:30....black limos pulled up.

Some kind of crisis meeting....CDU-CSU and SPD....gas talks....tax relief....tax burden....political BS.

Anyone's guess how much crap comes out of this.

If The Merz Coalition Collapsed?

 Well....you'd go to a new election.

Currently, with numbers....AfD would win with 26-percent....the CDU-CSU folks would likely get in the 24-to-25 percent range.  Rest?  Figure Greens at around 14-percent....Linke at 10-to-12 percent...SPD near 12-percent.  Maybe the FDP might get in there with 5-percent...enough to get seats.

AfD would be UNABLE to form a coalition....so after four weeks of failure....the CDU-CSU would get the chance to form a coalition.

To reach 50-percent or more....they'd have to partner with the Greens and FDP....a four-party 'mess'.

Merz in this leadership role?  No....I doubt it.  A whole new figure would emerge.

Lasting long?  With four coalition members?  No....I would imagine they'd last two years max.

All of a big sign for public trust?  Not really.

But if you were AfD....you could count on opposing this group, and gaining another five-to-eight points over that 26-point situation, and making the next election even more crappy for the CDU-CSU.

Sorry, if I seem overly pessimistic.

Where Is The German Gas/Energy Tax Spent?

As you might not remember....as you tank up....there are two taxes....one for the VAT (sales tax) and one for the Klima- und Transformationsfonds (KTF) — the federal Climate and Transformation Fund.

So where is the KTF cash spent? 

For 2025....the national system already generated around 16 billion Euro. 

They fund:

- Building renovation and heating replacement (e.g. subsidies for heat pumps, insulation, switching from gas/oil....the “Heizungstausch” deals).

- Expansion of renewable energies and energy-efficiency technologies.

- Electric mobility (charging infrastructure, e-car incentives, conversion of public transport fleets).

- Decarbonization of industry (hydrogen projects, carbon contracts for difference, efficiency upgrades)

- Electricity price relief for households and companies (indirectly lowers your Stromrechnung via various mechanisms).  If you pose the question....it's probably in the 5-to-10 percent range of savings mingled with your yearly bill.

- Other climate projects (rail infrastructure expansion, research into climate-neutral tech).

So the more you can contribute....the more they can give away or fund.  And if you were wondering about the 200-odd charging stations  that seem to exist between your house and work....which mostly seem empty....the excess funds paid for the rarely used charging stations.  The money was also used to give you a 2k Euro incentive to buy a E-car.  

Five Economic Realities Over Germany

 (This is my own personal list)

1.  Even with a number of years of marginal growth (mixed stagnation)....Germany is still considered Europe's top performer.    (It's amusing to  remember this fact)

2.  Even with all the negative 'chatter'.....Germany still runs one of the world’s largest current-account surpluses. 

3.  If a German company can't make what they consider a respectful profit....then they will disengage (quit making the product), or exit to a location where profit is possible. If you think you can control such a company (by gov't efforts)....you will end up with unemployed, and unhappy voters.

4.  From a FORSA 2025 survey....roughly 55-percent of German society complains of work-place stress....preventing them from being happy.  My German wife is among this group.  Oddly, between comp-time built up and regular leave (she turns 60 this year)....she has close to 48 days of leave for 2026.   As you might surmise....leave time doesn't lessen stress.  The whole nation feels this odd problem.

5. The bulk of German society has a equity problem....where they can't really convince banks to loan money for housing....which the gov't says there simply aren't enough homes/apartments....anyway.

Political Theatrics This Weekend

Back on Thursday AM....Chancellor Merz went to the Finance Minister (Klingbeil, SPD), and Economics Minister (Reiche, CDU)....asking them  to jointly present proposals for tax relief (over the escalating gas situation in Germany).

So 24 hours pass. Friday, the Finance Minister invited employers and unions to a high-level meeting. Reiche, went to the press and went  into a pretty critical commentary over the SPD's proposals.  For reference....the chief thing....was a profit-tax on gas/oil companies.  Her words?  "Expensive, ineffective, and constitutionally questionable." 

Things got heated, and Klingbeil mostly wanted Merz to yank on Reiche's chain. He had to....because the SPD is in such a weakened public perception (over the past year).

Merz did have a talk....from  what is suggested.....he told her to practice restraint. 

Merz caught in the middle?  Well...he kinda remembers how the SPD-led coalition in 2004 collapsed over money/tax issues.....and presently he appears drifting  toward the same 'mess'.

Where this is headed?  There's a fair amount of chatter today (Saturday) over dumping Reiche....within the CDU and CSU parties.

A bunch of them?  No.....it seems like there is a pro-SPD element within the CDU and CSU groups.  They have a point....they don't want a collapse, and things are pretty crappy if you have a forced-election right now.

Where all of this is headed?  

I'll make three observations:

1.  A lot of Germans remember 2024 and the SPD-led coalition collapsing.  Same path....same trend....arguing by SPD of new taxes.  This current trend reminds them of that spiral.

2.  I would imagine as Reiche gets 'dumped' (likely to happen shortly)....if you poll the parties at the end of April....the  CDU-CSU folks lose 2 points.

3.  As the profit-tax likely occurs (my belief is that it'll happen by early June)....the gas/oil companies will quietly add the tax to their costs, and pass it onto  the consumer.  Neither the SPD or CDU-CSU folks will admit this reality.  In fact, this might be so popular....that eventually every commercial company has profit-taxes.....which are all tied  in a bundle and passed onto consumers.  In a way....it is funny....but also tragic in how things occur these days.

As for who replaces Reiche?  I'm sure that Merz is asking around, and finding the top five CDU candidates on his list....all of them are saying no.  They all probably had critical comments over the profit-tax concept.

I will agree...it's a great 'show' to  view.

11 Apr 2026: Germany: 14 Things

 1.  AfD Party putting forward new agenda....requiring German schools to offer a homeland-studies class.  Probably won't be picked up by Greens or SPD....some CDU-voters might engage upon the idea.

One obvious point....education changes are a state-by-state thing...not a German federal mandate.  

2. NYT article:  Iran reportedly can’t 'fully' reopen the Strait of Hormuz.  Reason?  Well....they seem to lack planning and coordinates on where they 'dropped' them off, and they admit....don't have the equipment to remove them.

If you had $10,000 for investing purposes.....I'd go and buy stock in mine-detection companies....vast amount of spending is about to occur.

3.  Trump says Spain is out on trade-deals....no need to buy anything and import into the US, because of the base issue.  Amounts to?  Well.....2025....it was up around $20-plus billion.

Would imagine....Spain will have to walk around this topic and say they didn't understand the full problem. 

4.  German high fuel price issue?  Hot topic presently.

SPD Party wants a 'profit-tax'  on oil/gas companies....if they make above x-amount....serious taxes.  Who would deem high-profit situation?   Unknnown.  

But they did agree....the energy tax at the pump....ought to be lessen 'real-quick'.

Finally, they've started talking about a gas-price 'cap'.....where some gov't agency would say the price is max at 'X'.  

Whether the CDU-CSU will agree on the profit-tax or gas-price cap?  Unknown,

5.  Some  talk started up.....tunnel being discussed between Morocco and Spain.  Hype is that African trade would rapidly expand.  How you'd prevent massive migration surge on such a tunnel?  Unknown.

6.  N-24 item: At least two million Germans do not have access to 'fast-internet'.

7.  BASF (the company) and Ramstein AB...both report surge in UAPs being seen in the past 6 week....45 'events' for Ramstein, and 40 for BASF facilities.

Chinese? Russia? Aliens?  Unknown.  German Bundeswehr claims to have anti-UAP capabilities, but have yet to shoot down any of the UAPs.

8. SPD Party talking of increased audits of high-earners in Germany.

9.  Impending jet-fuel shortage in Europe?  Yeah.  Folks think in terms of travel, but it would affect air-cargo flights as well, and US air base situations.  Probably something that will pop up daily in May.

10.   What you really see from the Iran-US talks?  Two factions of Iranian  authority exist....one group wants to move on and leave the Mullah-era....the other is fairly attached to the past 47 years and wants the anti-US/Israel conditions to continue.

I asked Grok if there is a banking crisis brewing (more so than in 2025).  Response?   There apparently...in the past month....has developed some cash liquidity shortages.   How bad?  Most Iranian banks are running out of physical notes on a daily basis.  So to react....there are informal withdrawal caps of roughly $20 to $30. The rial currency?  It's fallen to historic lows (over 1.4–1.75 million per 1 USD).  Inflation hit 40-percent in March.

11.  Oddly, Europe seems to have bought significant volumes of Russian LNG in March.  

If you look at the numbers....it's reacting to lower deliveries from the Persian Gulf.

12.  Some kind of chatter going on in the UK.....PM office saying the nation needs to prepare for 'war'....but they aren't clear about who it is....to worry about.  I assume the evil-Russians.  I would guess that one-third of the nation would appreciate a Putin-invasion and consider it step-up from the Starmer era.

13.  I was looking at some German stat's..... only around 5.7 percent of German adults (between 30 and 44 years old) have sufficient equity to be able to take out a loan for a home of their own.  

It's a trend that has been developing over the past decade in Germany.

14.  This AM....locally for E10 fuel....2.04 Euro (down from last weekend, 2.17).

UK Story

 I sat this AM....reading a short report....from the UK Health Security Agency, UKHSA.

The PhD guys for them....said after analysis of 2025's summer....there were an estimated 1,504 heat-deaths in England last summer.

Basically....'heat-associated deaths'.  

Wanda and Carl....lingering out in the sun for six-odd hours...forgot to sip water, or wore the wrong clothing...got dehydrated....then slipped off to die.

I lived for four years in Arizona, and basically understand the concept of 'being-stupid'.    

What I might ask....did the PhD guys read or collect the death certificates, and did the 'authority' say heat-stress or dehydration, and I'm guessing in most of the 1,504 cases....the answer is no.

I'm also guessing (the story never told a complete data situation).....that ages weren't associated with the 1,504 folks.  In the Arizona environment....where the heat-stress was a issue...in most cases, it was folks over the age of fifty.  

The got-stupid syndrome?  Well....what I noticed in Arizona when the topic came up....folks usually got dehydrated fairly easy, and never seemed willing to recognize the signs.  If they did seek liquids...in the bad cases...they sought beer or coffee.