AfD Party And The Deport Gimmick

 As of early 2026....there were roughly 232,000 folks on the national list to deport....from the 16 German states.

Every month....each of the state make an effort to deport.  There's no real consolidated number....but you can probably figure around 2,000 go 'somewhere'....but then there's probably between 1,000 and 2,000 added to the list.

Yes, there are two lists....there's the tolerated list...meaning wherever you came from....won't accept you back, or your safety is in question. The other list.....you can go back home and it's a question of the state having 'seats' to rid you from Germany.

The states doing any better?  No....to run the normal deport plane....figure around 30 deportees leave...with the help of around 45 police onboard, and another 50-odd cops who round up the crew.

So, how would AfD change this  outcome?

I've thought about a good bit. This Saxony-Anhalt election in 3 month....revolves around a promise to fix the problem.

What I suspect?  On day one of being in charge....I think the state will just have the cops round up the deport folks within the state....put them on a bus, and take them to the state-line....to be some other German state's problem.

Saxony-Anhalt?  In a matter of 30 days....this would remove the state's problem.

Legal?  I'd question how you tell the guy the news and the threat made if you return.

This aggravating other German states?  OH YEAH.

But they will start to ask....why can't they take folks to a state-line and dump them elsewhere.

For  several decades in Alabama....Sheriffs had this authority....taking a guy to the county-line...or state-line....dumping them.  I'm not saying it was right....but it rid the county of a problem.

France and Le Pen?

Polls suggest in France....that National Rally party 'boss'...Marine Le Pen could run and win in 2027....as president of France (replacing Macron).

BS?  Well....there's a odd factor.

France runs a wide open 'primary'....with at least six parties/candidates.

The top two?  They move to a second round two weeks later.

So you could imagine Le Pen getting around 37-percent....leading.

But as you get to the 2nd round...the number two candidate....likely a lefty....will draw from the 63-percent who did not vote or Le Pen.  If that person gets 50-percent plus 10-percent....they win.

Polling currently says....73-to-80 percent of French people are disgruntled with Macron, and the current trends.  At least six polls (all in June 2026) say the bulk of voters aren't happy.

Economic pressures?  Well....it's the worst of times in forty-plus years.....high public debt, austerity measures continually brought up, rising living costs, and perceived inequalities.

Le Pen having some economic miracle to offer?  So far....the talk is limited. 

Was Hitler a V-Man?

 First, to define V-man....it's secret agent of the police....who is under-cover, and informing you of stuff going on.

Yes, Hitler was a V-man....reporting to the Bavarian Secret-Police.  Paid? Yep.

Lot of discussion going on presently about V-men?  Well....draft law circulating....allowing 16/17 year old German kids to be V-men/W-women. 

14 July 2026: Observations

 1.  I noted yesterday....three French nuclear reactors went offline.  Seven additional ones are running at reduced power.

Reason?  Climate laws (within France) restrict reactors from discharging hot water into rivers during hot weather.

Energy shortage?  Well....no one is saying that yet.

2.  This 20-percent duty/tax on ships leaving the Hormuz Gulf area....will hit European countries....paying to Trump.

3. Drought stage in Germany....reaching the level of warning for forest fires.

4.  Storm front coming to my valley today....maybe up to 2 hours of rainfall.  Temp-drop of 4 degree C expected.

5.  New law passed....officials will be permitted to use automatic real-time facial recognition within their areas of responsibility, provided there is a specific threat.

Yeah.  It is loosely worded.

6.  I ordered out for pizza last Friday....went to pick it up in town.  Got there....walked from parking lot to the pizza shop....here was a Muslim guy (I assume a employee)....on his carpet....doing the 'prayer'.   

I'm a direction-guy......you can stop me on the street, and in 99-percent of the time....ask me about directions, and I'll give you a pretty accurate setting.

So I looked at the carpet guy....noted he was about 90 degrees 'off' from the Qibla 'path'.  I felt like it wasn't my job to correct him.

7.  Kiel: rock thrown at police-gal.  Afterwards....200 police arrive at apartment building where the rock was thrown.....all occupants mandated for DNA test.  

242 rentals.....DNA found on paving stone thrown.  

8.  Spahn of the CDU Party....suggests there is 'power' in stripping people of their  right  to vote....aimed at AfD Party's Höcke.

I paused over this.  Since 1945....there's never been a case where voting rights were restricted.

Constitutional?  I guess the Constitutional Court would observe the idea.  Not sure if they'd agree.

Problem I see....if you open up this idea....saying voting could be restricted from citizens.....a bunch of folks would discuss voting in general.  Example?  If you had a IQ of 80 or less....you probably shouldn't vote.  If you can't  read....maybe you shouldn't have a right to vote.  If you were for Constitutional chaos....you probably shouldn't vote.

Seems like it's a discussion...leading to public discontent. 

12 Euro A Pack For Smokes?

 Smokers were expecting the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition to have 'some' rise in the smokes tax.  Based on talk this AM....by early 2027, a single pack of smokes will be around 12 Euro ($13.5).

If you were a pack a day smoker?  Well....you'd need 360 Euro (figure close to $420)....for a month.

1978....Frankfurt....a pack of smokes ran for 2.40 DM (figure $1.20).

The 5-Degree Difference

 Locally (Wiesbaden area)....the public bus folks....came up and lectured everyone.  While they have AC....basically the cooling effect is 5 degrees less.

So if the outdoor temp is 37 C (99 F)....the bus can only cool to 32 C (90 F).

In this type of scenario....I'd advise you....either travel early mornings, or limit your trip to 15 minutes (getting off and cooling a bit).

Trains?  They might be slightly better but I doubt that you have more than 7 degrees C cooler.  

Saxony-Anhalt State Election Likely Outcome

 6 Sep is the date of the state election.

Presently....AfD is rating around 42-percent of the vote....with 12-percent of the vote likely going to smaller parties without a chance to get seats in the state assembly.

So I crunched the math...asking AI for help.

There will be five likely parties getting 5-percent or more (AfD, SPD, Linke, BSW and CDU).

With the current numbers...83 seats in the mix....AfD will not be able to get 50-percent or more....meaning that the CDU (in 2nd place) will be told to forge a coalition with the SPD, Linke and BSW....all lefties.  This would be a 50-plus situation.

However, I'll point this out....if you were a CDU-voter and were told....the 5-year coalition would be mostly a left-situation...why would you vote for the CDU?

Somewhere in the 21-percent polling for the CDU....I suspect half of the voters really can't dream of partnering into a  situation like this.  So part of me suggests that half of the CDU-voters might slide over and vote for the AfD...giving them a 50-plus percent win, with the 50-plus seats.

It would be a pretty radical win, and hard to explain to the general public.  Nationally, it'd trigger a lot of questions

12 July 2026: Germany: 5 Stories

 1.  WELT piece this AM....wave of German hospital bankruptcies going on.

At present pace, I might suggest that a full-blown Bundestag 'emergency' will occur by early 2027.

2.   Between Dusseldorf and Koln....Bahn railway sabotage noted....left-wing group claims credit.

Group noted....."Kommando Angry Birds."

The group says....."mass death caused by progress" as their motive.  BS chatter if you ask me....probably a group of two nutcases.

3.  100 folks in Germany for June...drowned....mostly all males....highest rate in almost 30 years.

4.  Noted on N-TV new....near one-third of German retirees....get only 900 Euro or less on monthly pension.

5.  AfD....regionally (SSaxony-Anhalt)....published their 10 key points to 'push' upon winning in the state election (within 90 days):

- Cancel public broadcasting, at least for their state....which might mean no TV tax (would be court-challenged).

- More deportations (not explained HOW).

- Work requirement for asylum seekers....this gets brought up as a common theme....how they would force the issue, unknown.

- Cut funding for foundations & democracy projects.

- Driver's license subsidy for apprentices (where funding would come from, unknown)

- Special classes (not explained). 

- Security guards at schools (where funding would come from....unknown).

- Only use of the German National flag....instead of rainbow flag

-  Some topic called German-thinking.....replacing Modern-thinking (not explained). 

- Reduce ministries (easily done, if you combined several into one).

If you ask me....several of these probably would have 60-plus percent of folks in support of.  Lot revolving around extra funding.