Frankfurt Riot After Action?

 The Frankfurt public prosecutor's office apparently now has 54 suspects on charges from this past weekend riot-action (in the shopping district).

Charges dangling?  Well...breach of the peace, aggravated assault, burglary, and attacks on police officers .

More folks to be detained, as video is reviewed?  Looks that way.

In the past....you might get arrested...charged-up, and maybe eight months would pass before your case came up.  It appears now that these folks are on a shortened schedule...probably to face a judge within 90 days.

Getting more than a year in jail?  It appears that the prosecutor is pushed to press hard.  If you were stupid and did some kind of aggravated assault or attack on police/ambulance crews/firemen....you might be in a serious case with up to 10 years of prison time.  State laws got more strict last year about attacks on medical personnel and firemen....treated at same level as policemen now.

Video playing a key role?  The judge will put a lot of weight on 'proof'.  

Frankfurt looking for more tools for future riots?  Just by the statements made....there's likely to be another couple of hundred cameras set-up over the next year.

Poland: Since Yesterday

 1.  Last night....conference meeting....President Nawrocki and PM Tusk in the upper-level meeting.  Just viewing the initial moments (video)....Tusk was visibly bothered.  

Meeting results?  Well....for weeks, vacancy situation for the National Bank, and RPP (Monetary Policy Council).  President had passed names down for Tusk to sign off....delay after delay.  Right off the bat with this meeting....Tusk signs the names to openings.  No problem?  Well....that's the message.

The funding for US basing/construction?  No problem....Tusk readily agrees.

Threat from Russia chatter?  Tusk highlights the threat....something he would not have uttered a month ago. 

One gets the impression that no charges will occur and Tusk can remain as PM.....even if he is severely weakened.

2.  Just odd.

Yesterday.....seven European passenger flights from Ryanair, Wizz Air, LOT Polish Airlines, and SAS were targeted by bomb threats across Poland, Spain, Italy, and Bulgaria. 

Culprit?  Unknown.

3.  Martial law chatter?  After this meeting between Tusk and Nawrocki last night....that seems to have dissolved away.  The suggestion is that civil conflict would erupt if Tusk were charged.

Odd Germany-Poland History

 Nazi-boss Adolph Hitler.....justified invading Poland in 1939....by claiming ethnic Germans were being persecuted.

Using old territory grumblings....German territory had also been unfairly taken.

Hitler framed an invasion of conquest as an act of self-defense.  

Yeah....it as a 4-star fabrication....to correct the 'wrongs'.

And yes, it does resemble the Putin-Nazis-Ukraine stuff a bit.

Poland: What Likely Happens To Tusk (PM)?

 Basically three routes:

1.  You detain the guy and charge him with some federal crime.

2.  You convince him to run-off and exit Poland.

3.  You hold off on charges....threatening charges any minute, and publicly talk about his 'crimes'....but never arresting him.  Let him serve as a problem for his political party.  This convinces the party to have a no-confidence vote...dumping him.

Chief problem....there's probably 10,000 folks within the gov't who owe something to Tusk and his party.  They are probably worried over where things are going, and hyped-up to exit the country.

EU?  There's probably 500-odd folks meeting at bars/night-clubs in Brussels....discussing things.  This discussion of a coup?  Well...they don't want this to be focused upon by non-Poles.

BBC or ARD (German public TV)?  Thirty seconds max tonight....without uttering 'coup'.  Probably some effort to say Putin's FSB somewhere in the middle of this crap.

You just wonder....who convinced Tusk....the coup-route was going to work?  

Poland Martial Law?

 From about 3 news sources within Poland....there's talk of some type of martial law to be declared by the President....at midnight.

To what degree?  Yet to be established.

Just a humble guess....probably a curfew of some type, and crowd-gatherings are forbidden for a week, or two.

Just to emphasize the point....it's the President who is directing this.....NOT the PM.

Last EU state to ever declare martial law?  Poland, December 1981.  It lasted for roughly 18 months....summer, 1983. If you remember the Solidarity Movement.....this was the gov't tool to put them down.     

Before that?  France’s constitutional état de siège (the closest event) occurred in 1958. 

How public German TV (ARD or ZDF) avoid discussing it?  Unknown.

Warsaw Rather Odd Development

 This AM (Tuesday)....the buildings of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MSZ) and the Chancellery of the Prime Minister (KPRM) were urgently evacuated.  I should note here....in relation to each other, they are about 2 minutes walking from each other.

Other odd thing....noted by a couple of poles....in the nearby area...LRAD mounted on the back of a police-truck.

LRAD?  It's a Long Range Acoustic Device (also called an acoustic hailing device or “sound cannon”). It is a specialized, high-powered, highly directional loudspeaker system designed to broadcast clear voice messages or warning tones over long distances.

Usually....it serves two purposes.  The friendly use?  It serves as a ultra-high speaker.  Even from three blocks away....you probably hear a clear message.

The less than friendly use?  The police can turn on a ultra-high tone, and it disorientates you....forcing you to leave the area.

Upon whose orders to deploy it?  Unknown.  Against pro-Tusk folks, or pro-Nawrocki folks?  Unknown. 

Italian Speed/Fines?

 Italy is discussing a new law....minimum speed limits on motorways/autobahns....of 100 km per hour.  Suggested fine?  160 euro.

I've only been a driver on Italian roads on three occasions....so I can't speak to this....as being a problem.

German minimum speeds?  It's fairly rare, but I'd admit....I've seen dozens of occasions where some German-plated car was moving along at 50 km per hour....folks were passing at 100 to 200 km per hour. 

Polish Poll?

 There was a poll done....26/27 Oct....before the coup started up...asking....do you think that Donald Tusk's coalition will stay in power after the 2027 parliamentary election (fall 2027)?

Thousand-odd folks.

Forty-seven percent said NO.  Thirty-percent said YES.  Twenty-three percent were undecided.

The twenty-three percent?  They sound like zero-committed to Tusk, and waiting for some action,

I have the thought that this poll result might have been known (already) by Tusk and associates, and it scared the crap out of them....resulting in the idea....the coup would fix this issue (one way or another).

The one odd comment I read from a Pole, which stood out....he/she asked....what is it in a remarkable way that the Tusk-coalition has done in the past two years to really pull in support (from all Poles)?  They couldn't think of a result....hoping that others might post a comment 'positive' in nature.

I'll just make this comment, from an American prospective....that you (as a party/coalition) need a agenda that the majority of people support/desire, and you need to show some progress.  If you lounge around with a majority for two or three years...never getting anything done, but whine a lot....your odds of winning are near zero in the next election.

If you asked over the odds of a Tusk-collapse occurring now....triggering a new election (with no prosecution over the coup as part of the deal).....I'd say the odds are in the 60-percent range presently.