Poland: What Likely Happens To Tusk (PM)?

 Basically three routes:

1.  You detain the guy and charge him with some federal crime.

2.  You convince him to run-off and exit Poland.

3.  You hold off on charges....threatening charges any minute, and publicly talk about his 'crimes'....but never arresting him.  Let him serve as a problem for his political party.  This convinces the party to have a no-confidence vote...dumping him.

Chief problem....there's probably 10,000 folks within the gov't who owe something to Tusk and his party.  They are probably worried over where things are going, and hyped-up to exit the country.

EU?  There's probably 500-odd folks meeting at bars/night-clubs in Brussels....discussing things.  This discussion of a coup?  Well...they don't want this to be focused upon by non-Poles.

BBC or ARD (German public TV)?  Thirty seconds max tonight....without uttering 'coup'.  Probably some effort to say Putin's FSB somewhere in the middle of this crap.

You just wonder....who convinced Tusk....the coup-route was going to work?  

Poland Martial Law?

 From about 3 news sources within Poland....there's talk of some type of martial law to be declared by the President....at midnight.

To what degree?  Yet to be established.

Just a humble guess....probably a curfew of some type, and crowd-gatherings are forbidden for a week, or two.

Just to emphasize the point....it's the President who is directing this.....NOT the PM.

Last EU state to ever declare martial law?  Poland, December 1981.  It lasted for roughly 18 months....summer, 1983. If you remember the Solidarity Movement.....this was the gov't tool to put them down.     

Before that?  France’s constitutional état de siège (the closest event) occurred in 1958. 

How public German TV (ARD or ZDF) avoid discussing it?  Unknown.

Warsaw Rather Odd Development

 This AM (Tuesday)....the buildings of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MSZ) and the Chancellery of the Prime Minister (KPRM) were urgently evacuated.  I should note here....in relation to each other, they are about 2 minutes walking from each other.

Other odd thing....noted by a couple of poles....in the nearby area...LRAD mounted on the back of a police-truck.

LRAD?  It's a Long Range Acoustic Device (also called an acoustic hailing device or “sound cannon”). It is a specialized, high-powered, highly directional loudspeaker system designed to broadcast clear voice messages or warning tones over long distances.

Usually....it serves two purposes.  The friendly use?  It serves as a ultra-high speaker.  Even from three blocks away....you probably hear a clear message.

The less than friendly use?  The police can turn on a ultra-high tone, and it disorientates you....forcing you to leave the area.

Upon whose orders to deploy it?  Unknown.  Against pro-Tusk folks, or pro-Nawrocki folks?  Unknown. 

Italian Speed/Fines?

 Italy is discussing a new law....minimum speed limits on motorways/autobahns....of 100 km per hour.  Suggested fine?  160 euro.

I've only been a driver on Italian roads on three occasions....so I can't speak to this....as being a problem.

German minimum speeds?  It's fairly rare, but I'd admit....I've seen dozens of occasions where some German-plated car was moving along at 50 km per hour....folks were passing at 100 to 200 km per hour. 

Polish Poll?

 There was a poll done....26/27 Oct....before the coup started up...asking....do you think that Donald Tusk's coalition will stay in power after the 2027 parliamentary election (fall 2027)?

Thousand-odd folks.

Forty-seven percent said NO.  Thirty-percent said YES.  Twenty-three percent were undecided.

The twenty-three percent?  They sound like zero-committed to Tusk, and waiting for some action,

I have the thought that this poll result might have been known (already) by Tusk and associates, and it scared the crap out of them....resulting in the idea....the coup would fix this issue (one way or another).

The one odd comment I read from a Pole, which stood out....he/she asked....what is it in a remarkable way that the Tusk-coalition has done in the past two years to really pull in support (from all Poles)?  They couldn't think of a result....hoping that others might post a comment 'positive' in nature.

I'll just make this comment, from an American prospective....that you (as a party/coalition) need a agenda that the majority of people support/desire, and you need to show some progress.  If you lounge around with a majority for two or three years...never getting anything done, but whine a lot....your odds of winning are near zero in the next election.

If you asked over the odds of a Tusk-collapse occurring now....triggering a new election (with no prosecution over the coup as part of the deal).....I'd say the odds are in the 60-percent range presently.

If Poland's PM (Tusk) Had To Leave

 It's a silly suggestion.  I noted several folks on Twitter this AM (Poles) who began to ask...if he (Tusk) had to leave....where to?

The answer in 99-percent of commentary...Brussels (Belgium).  The topic ends up being some funny statement that the EU would have to direct Belgium to accept him....while Poland works up prosecution-paperwork....which Belgium likely responds 'hell-no'.

I paused over this BS chatter.  The problem is....the hundred-odd people who are connected to the PM or his personal staff....they would also be in some prosecution paperwork, and in a fragile mindset....might ask....can we go to Belgium as well?

In the end, as these public-square chats go on....you could have 10,000 Poles in a disturbing mindset....that they picked the wrong agenda to sign up for, and staying in Poland is possibly not an option.  Belgium accepting the whole crowd?  I doubt it.  So the question is....does Germany, Spain, Italy and France step up, and do the right thing in opening up a 'status'?

Oddly, a week ago....no one had such thoughts.

Four Observations Over Poland (since yesterday)

 1.   President of Poland gave a 'talk' this AM....looking over the text.

He stated that the problem that Poland is facing is no longer merely a political dispute but a systemic and fundamental crisis. 

He then suggested that the political conflict has gone to some extent to tearing families apart, destroying communities and threatening the very foundations of the Polish state. 

Then there's a sentence or two....that EU law...comes second to Polish law.

2.  It has come out....that the President and VP signed a document....probably going back 6 months, that if either were 'removed'....that the paper granted the 'head' of the Polish Supreme Court as the authority replacing them.  It doesn't appear that anyone from the Tusk side was aware of the paperwork.

Legal?  So far....the Constitution allows for such transfer of power.

This leads one to wonder....did they already know of coup plans back in the spring of 2026?

3.  It just makes you wonder....who guided Tusk and 'associates' to this coup idea?  

I doubt that this invented via the EU.  Putin-folks?   CIA-folks?  

4.  Last night....the Tusk-inserted new 'chief' of the Polish Supreme court....Korwin-Piotrowska....gave a interview with some prime-time TV moderator.

She noted as the President entered the building....getting past the police barricade: "The President intended to trample us. I made a hand gesture to greet him, and Mr. President charged at me with his entire body, started pushing us away, using brutal force."

I might agree with the description....she's a light-weight (maybe 110 pounds).  But the rest of the story....she didn't greet him down with the police group.

These TV interviews that she's given....aren't exactly helping to sell the 'brand' or message.

3 Nov 2026: Germany/Europe: 4 Stories

 1.  Study done on German social pension contributions by 2035....probably going up 51-percent.  For an upper-class technician German....figure in the 2,000 to 3,000 Euro a year extra.

Probably will be a fair amount of hostility over the increase.

2.  Two housing companies in Berlin entered into a deal with the city....building x-amount of housing....to be dedicated to lower-income families.  Well....they failed to deliver....case went to court.  

Court agreed....damages in the 1.8-million Euro range.

3  Charges filed against 3 individuals....attempting to damage the Chancellor's private plane.  Journalists identify the three....as environmentalists.  Court reviewing the charges.  Could be some jail-time.

4.  Some fear starting up....Christmas markets open in 3 weeks.  Fear centers on drone-attacks being possible. There was already fear of car-attacks on the markets, and weapon-attacks.