My Crystal Ball On German Politics Over The Next 3 Years

 Only my speculation....where things are leaning right now.

First, confidence with the public with Chancellor Merz is dwindling....to the degree that within three months...I predict that the CDU Party will meet and lead Merz to hand party-leadership over to Bavaria's CSU 'Boss'....Soder.

At that point...for the remainder of the year....ZDF and ARD (the two public TV networks) will weekly interview and 'hype' Soder....leading to a lesser view of Merz.  Around the end of 2026....the CDU executive committee will talk to Merz and say....for the good of  upcoming state elections in 2027, you need to cite some  reason to leave.    

Then based on CDU-CSU-SPD support....Soder gets the role.

AfD?  By January of 2027....I see them close to 33-percent of public support, and the CDU-CSU folks near 19-percent. 

2027 will be a odd year.....where some marginal improvement occurs for the CDU-CSU (back up to  21-percent, and the SPD slipping to national numbers of 9-percent. The Greens and AfD together....will amount to near 50-percent of the national polling mid-2027.

The top two problems seen by the public?  Economic woes, and the fact that 50-percent of those on German welfare are non-Germans. 

AfD will figure the connection of the two issues, and this will be the top theme for the remainder of 2027.

Soder ends up being respected, but unable to resolve the budget/economic problems.....with the partnership of the SPD being  unable to fix much of anything.

At some point in 2028....early election occurs....with the public frustrated with both the CDU-CSU and the SPD.  AfD?  They are able to 'win' with around 35-percent of the vote, but no  party will partner-up for the coalition.  So you end up with a vastly weakened CDU-CSU, SPD, Greens....mostly leaning left.

Public frustration?  Doomed...the coalition likely lasts two years max.

At some point....after 2030....AfD will be near 50-percent on the win, and the freak-out of journalists, and the left-audience will occur.  The burden on the  welfare system....cleared within one year.  What folks will eventually say....if you work and pay taxes....you aren't a burden on the system, and that the CDU-CSU and SPD always had this 'tool'....never using it. 

20 May 2026: Germany: 7 Things

 1.Timmy-the-whale-update.  Well...Timmy, of course...is dead....floating near the Danish coast.  Denmark says they will recover Timmy, and perform a autoposy.

2.  WELT piece, presently....the German gov't is the only one in a hiring-plus-up....industry and commerce...slacking.

3.  Just a odd PR-gimmick....Chancellor Merz (CDU Party) is on a 'outing' with the SPD Party....trying to drum up public standing for them.

At some point yesterday.....he says: "I don't just stand on the left, I also come from the left."

Fair number of CDU-voters commented on social media.....perhaps there's a reason why they aren't buying in Merz's job performance.

4.  INSA, the polling folks....came up with a poll on the German Chancellor's preference.  One in three Germans wants Alice Weidel (AfD) as chancellor. Only 22-percent want Merz. But the winner?  36-percent of Germans who don't see anyone with the 'talents' for  Chancellor.

To be honest....ever since Covid....there's been a lack of confidence in Chancellors.

5.  New buy-a-E-car program.....you could get up to 6k Euro on a purchase of a E-car.

Based on numbers....fair comment to say that E-car buying has slacked-off/peaked.   Maybe this bonus will help.

6. Heat wave by Monday?  Well...there's weather chatter suggesting 30C (86 F) for my valley.

7. Bavaria state: statistical data got out....from Burgergeld (welfare pay)....55-percent of folks getting it....are non-German.  

It'll be discussed and heavy criticism will come over this.

German Patriot Missiles Going To Turkey?

Well....yeah. Announced yesterday.  The German Defense Ministry announced that the Bundeswehr will send one Patriot missile battery and 150 German soldiers.

Deployment is scheduled to begin at the end of June 2026 and last 90 days.  

The German unit will replace a U.S. Patriot unit currently stationed in Turkey and will operate under NATO’s Integrated Air and Missile Defense situation.

New INSA Political Poll

AfD: 29-percent (up 1)

CDU-CSU: 22-percent (down 1)

Greens: 14-percent (up 1.5)

SPD: 12.5 percent (down .5)

LINKE: 10.5 percent

BSW: 3.5 percent

FDP: 3.5 percent

Observation: If you were on the left of the spectrum....voting SPD....you likely are eyeballing the Greens as a alternative.   If you add up the lefty-group....it's near 40-percent of the public currently....but heavily divided.

Thinking And Pondering

 

For a week or two...I've been pondering this data graphic (2025 info).

On the positive side?  Germany as a nation....is overflowing with tax revenue....while the median household net wealth is 'crap'.

Some would view it, and say....well....the gov't is taking wealth to redistribute and equalize things. The problem with that....roughly 20-percent of the German public...even with redistribution....are in a poverty situation.  If this were the priority/mission....they are doing a crappy job.

Solution?  To be honest, if you asked on a priority to resolve this....there's probably fifty things ahead of improving net wealth.  All of the parties probably agree on that part of the landscape.

Even if they had more net wealth....would they do a good job on investing, improving their retirement, or live happier?  

19 May 2026: Germany: 7 Things

 1. MDR (regional public TV network....to eastern region of Germany)...announced yesterday....for next 3 years, no Tatort episode productions from their region. Cash-flow problem.  TV crew/team heavily critical of decision.

Basically....the 'governors' limited increase on TV tax to public TV, and the reaction are staged 'cuts'. What will fill the hours?  No one says much....probably reruns, game-shows, and older movies.

I  sat four nights ago...watching a 1963 cowboy movie at prime-time while watching a regional public channel.  'Nevada Smith'.....excellent movie, but odd to be in prime-time setting.

2. 2,995 gas stations (of 15,240 stations) have violated the twelve-noon gas pricing rule.  No word if gov't will 'punish' them.

3.  Weidel (AfD 'Boss') has moved in the popular politician listing to the top five of Germany (1st time ever).  Oddly, in the ranking....she's higher than Bavaria's Soder.

4. US doctor who had been in Africa.....has ebola....now kept in Germany.

5.   My impression of AfD's Björn Höcke?  

Intelligent guy....educated...I'd rank at least two AfD folks ahead of him on party status.  

Negative?  If he gives speeches....there's always this 'hint' of nationalism...leading back to speeches of the 1930s.  Maybe accidental....maybe intentional.

Currently....he's a state-player....not on the national path.

6.  'Jump' and 'Orange' were driving schools in the Berlin region.  One day (in the past month)....they (the management)....up and disappeared....with all the deposits.

Path leads to Bulgaria....fake schools.  Authorities investigating.

7.  Become apparent after the police had to shoot that escaped tiger in Leipzig....there is NOT a national code of rules on exotic animals.  What rules do exist....differs state by state.  

Going to be a discussion....to have a national regulation about keeping dangerous pets.

18 May 2026: Germany: 7Things

 1.  If you watched ARD (public TV) last night....9:45....the Carin Miosga forum show....it was a fairly long live chat with CSU's Soder (Premier-President of Bavaria).

Basically....he's selling himself as the potential replacement for Merz...if a step-down occurs.  On the interview?  I'd give him high marks.

2.  Tiger-Queen story?  Well....in Leipzig over the weekend, cops got called....tiger loose.

They arrive to find a real tiger....ending up shooting it. Apparently...this gal in Leipzig has a private collection (11 of them), and this one got loose.

Germany has a license program for exotic pets and strict requirements.  Based off reports....it doesn't appear that she has a current existing license.   

3.  Crisis has started up in the European Song Competition.....some Germans are tired of losing...to the point that they are asking why allow the state-culture fund funnel money into the deal.  Amount?  I looked it up...comes to around half-a-million Euro per year.

I doubt if it's a huge number (probably into the tens of thousands feeling this way).

4.  At current pace of things....by the end of 2026....AfD's numbers will  reach 30-percent on polls (my humble belief).  It makes things very difficult with the CDU-CSU folks, and how they build future partnerships/coalitions.

5.  Austria: 67-year-old woman hiker....attacked by cows while crossing a meadow....dead.

6.  Interior Minister asking for 10 billion Euro for civil defense.

7.  Green Party talking up prioritizing child poverty in Germany. 

After A Week In The Hospital

 Ten random thoughts:

1.  I had first-class care.....finding almost no criticisms.

2.  Food-wise....it did get 'boring' after the 5th day.

3.  I probably watched twelve hours of CNN/BBC over the 6 days.  Yeah, there is still a element of propaganda existing.

4. It was pretty nifty to have a refrigerator in the room (pull-out drawer) and sip cold liquids.

5.  Nurse came by one morning while I was on the inverted hospital bed (my feet about a foot above my head), and got a pulse rate of 40 out of me.  He and the Doc got concerned.  I was ultra-relaxed that morning.  If I had a hiding place in the house for a hospital bed....yeah, I'd buy one.

6. The 'cantina' in the clinic offers beer.

7.  On my index of ultra-boring....1-to-10....it was a '12'.

8.  To step in.....finally getting to a bed....I had to encounter and pass through 12 offices/steps.  Luckily, it was not an emergency.

9. Free coffee.....all day long.  

10.   Free bananas and free pears....all day long. I probably haven't eaten a pear since the 1980s.