UK Story

 Yesterday....a Sky News-commissioned YouGov poll found that a ONLY 6-perecent of UK residents would volunteer to fight if facing an imminent invasion.

They didn't add a 'enemy'....assuming it was Russia.

I pondered over this.....the greatest opportunity in the history of Russia.  Simply a invasion force of 30,000 could probably take over England in 10 days.  Would NATO come to save the UK?  I'm not that sure.  Would the US/Trump come?  Probably only to remove our troops/families there, and exit a quickly as possible.

So the question....what would  Putin gain?

I ponder over this for an hour.  

A quarter of the UK population would welcome the Putin-force....for liberating them from the Labor-Party.

The anti-King Charles folks?  They'd welcome the Russians.

The folks hating the police?  They'd welcome the Russians.

Would it matter....if this were the Spaniards, French, or Germans....instead of the Russians?  I'm of the mind.....anyone could invade....even the Argentina folks.

For Putin?  If he just had forty-odd tanks, and 30,000 troops...the UK is his to take.

Trip to Koln This Weekend

Four star hotel in the mix.  Oddly,  they note that they will provide Covid masks, if requested,  and they stock TP...toilet paper.  🤔

My wife selected it...some frugal deal.

Adventure stories will follow.

(Other than military deployments....I never worried much over TP.)

64 Teams?

 My German wife and I had a soccer chat last night (it's rare....maybe twice every decade)....so the topic was if FIFA follows through....enlarging the World Cup to 64 teams.

My wife took the position...it's CRAZY-CRAZY.  

I asked how many games would be involved, and she did the analysis in 60 seconds....suggesting there would be 16 'groups', and a total of 128 total games.

I added my thoughts....that six weeks were not enough...it'd have to be 8 weeks (two full months).  Also....to be honest....adding Iceland, Mongolia, and Thailand....doesn't really thrill me.

Based on readings yesterday....FIFA believes they made in the range of $8-Billion off the US-Canada-Mexico series.

If you added the 64 team scenario into it....profit-wise?  I'd guess the numbers go close to $15-billion.

Players accepting this?   I'm not that sure.

Would I watch 30-plus games over two months?  That's the question that I come to.  With all the crappy ref action....I lost 50-percent interest by the 3rd week of this spell. 

Train 'Attack'

It's reported in the Ulm area (Bavaria) but barely mentioned nationally (at this point).

So....Monday morning....around 8:45 AM....a Tunisian 52-year old guy....got on a ICE train heading toward Munch.

If you've ever been on ICE trains....it's a 99-percent chance of a ticket-audit, and if you were traveling without a ticket....it's 5-star stupid.

The guy had no ticket.

So there is this meeting/confrontation in  the bistro-car.....conductor and the Tunisian.

Somewhere in the middle of this....the Tunisian guy threatens a passenger with a piece of broken glass (I assume a beer-bottle).

Police say...the guy kicked at officers who arrived, and attempted to bite them during the arrest. 

Arrested....held on charges now.  The ticket problem is the least of  his worries.  Assault on the police....the biting charge....then the threat with a broken glass on a traveler-lady....would be ten years of prison, unless 'crazy-crazy'. 

Odds of a mental exam order (by the judge)....I'd give it a 50-50 possibility.

On the positive side....at least the police didn't have to draw weapons or fire a round or two into the guy.  

Likely Le Pen Effect On Germany

 Over the past month....there's been a fair amount of focus by German public news (ZDF/ARD)....that Marine Le Pen will win next year's France Presidential race..

So I've pondered over the scenario.

What Le Pen promises?  Tough....immediate actions.  Deportations.

So I'm making three predictions.

First, in the month after she assumes  office....somewhere in the range of 500,000 'bad-boys' will exit France...before the full effect of deportations....arriving for the most part in Germany.

Second, the Merz-coalition will be completely unable to comprehend this situation and by early 2028....crime numbers rapidly escalate.  

Third,  AfD ends up promising Le Pen-type rules.....to resolve the mess.

Yeah, I'm laying out  a pretty bad landscape for 2028.

Egling Stabbing Attack Story Ended?

 Bavarian police have arrested a 16-year old German (ethnic German) kid for the attack.

Eight teens wounded in the attack.....over the weekend.

Oddly, as the 'be-on-the-look-out' report went out....it said that the attack-person spoke broken German....meaning....he was a 'guest' (so you assumed).

After the arrest, and the ethnic status determined....I asked Grok (AI) how the broken German part of the story 'fits'.

AI suggested....some Germans don't speak plain/clear German.

I paused over this.

No matter where you go in Germany....probably one-third of the population speaks with some dialect (Bavarians are the worse, but Saar folks pretty close....with Hesse folks in rural areas really bad).  If you were an American...marginal on German  skills....it's a pain-in-the-ass to ask a question and get the odd dialect answer.

As  for why the 16-year old kid stabbed the others?  So far....cops have little to add.  My bet?  Doped-up on something, or fairly drunk.

23 July 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

 1.  Cool trend?  Well....the past 2 weeks have been exceptionally cool (last night, low of 12 C/54 F).  Drought continues?  Yes....virtually all of the yard is dead now.

2. Fake suicide?  The Stade-shooter (shoot dead six social service personnel, about a month ago).....is dead by suicide.

But there is this 'catch'.  For the 4 weeks of  jail-time....he continually gave this happy-feeling/positive-thoughts....faking the guards out.  In the suicide note, he brags of this in some way.

3.  Yesterday was the 10th anniversary of the Munich shooting.

Background?  This was a mass shooting.....classified as a right-wing extremist attack.....occurring in the vicinity of the Olympia shopping mall in the Moosach district of Munich, Germany. 

The guy involved?  A 18-year-old Iranian-German David Sonboly.  He opened fire on teenagers with migrant background at a McDonald's restaurant.  Thirty-six wounded....nine dead.

So they held a ceremony.....President of Germany gave a speech.

I paused over this.  Shooter was a gamer.  In the 3 years prior to the shooting....he had received psychiatric treatment for depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). In 2015 he spent two months as an inpatient in a mental care facility,

Police noted in the after-action report....the shooter was socially isolated, had endured years of bullying (including physical abuse) at school—mostly by classmates from immigrant backgrounds.

None of this mental issue stuff was mentioned yesterday....just that he was a right-wing nutcase....over and over.

Footnote:  if you take the statistical average....Germany has 280,000 paranoid schizophrenic folks walking around....waiting for some 'trigger'.  If you were walking for an hour in Mainz....you probably passed by a dozen folks who were  potentially a  'loose-canon'.

4. About 30 years ago....folks in Bonn had this idea of bringing the S13 S-Bahn train line to the Koln Airport.  It was almost to the last stage....when this week....they woke up and realized that a bridge was required.

Planners now say....it'll be 2040....before S13 is finished.

5. HR ran a terrific documentary piece last night....'Dirty Money'...talking over money-laundering in Germany.  The experts say....nearly 100 billion Euro  is washed yearly in Germany. 

The more interesting suggestion....there are hotels in Germany....faked-up....noting ghost-guests....paying in cash....but the hotel is mostly empty.  The registered guests....non-existent....simply washing the money as income.

6. Argument to some degree going on....who will enforce the NO-drinking rule in train stations (when it becomes effective).  Police don't really want the job.  Bahn-security is not manned to the degree to take on the job.

I'll predict....'bouncers' end up  being hired at massive levels.  Cost will be passed to railway riders.....figure 25-percent bump in ticket prices by 2030.  

Germany and Militias

Americans tend to get into this affiliation with militias.  So this is one of those historical essays I write, except it's about Germans (Prussians) and roughly a 180-year period where it was acceptable to have militias around Prussia/Germany. 

German militias were originally referred to as 'Freikorps' (meaning Free Corps).   The first historical identification goes back to 1759 and Frederick the Great.  This group of 80 men were all volunteers and they were based around the Dresden region (the far east side of what was Prussia).  Oddly enough, these were all Hungarian men.  By the end of 1759, four additional groups of volunteers were created....mostly of Prussian men.  These four were based around other cities (Berlin, Leipzig, for example).  The key thing was that they were all volunteers, and not part of any military unit.

by the late 1770s, other units had been created around Germany/Prussia and these were made up of a number of ethnic groups (Prussian, Hungarians, Turks, Cossacks, Poles, Lithuanians and Slavic men).  In the Seven Years War, all of these militias played key roles.

There's a key thing about the militias that were created.....they weren't regular Army, and tended to be undisciplined.  Training skills?  No one ever gives them plus-points on combat-type skills.  It's hard to find occasions that militia members were ever paid anything much.  Most did it out of patriotic motivation (a little adventure).

Throughout the 1800s, in every single 'skirmish' or war that the Prussians had with France....the Freikorp guys showed up.  Some got recognition in battles.  Some commanders got noted recognition and public 'status'.

So you come to 1918....the end of WW I.  Oddly enough, a large number of regular soldiers found themselves returning to communities in defeat, and by joining a local Freikorps unit....they felt they were part of a bigger team.  In some ways, the local militias now became political devices.

The potential coups threats of the 1920s?  All leading back to some type of militia unit.

By the fall of 1933, Hitler and the Nazi machine came to a realization....that the various Freikorp units were a threat.  Over the period of three days in June and July 1934....most of the commanders of Freikorp militias (along with the Brown Shirt thugs) were detained, and in some cases executed.  That basically triggered the end of the militias in Germany.

Existence today?  No.  Nor do I think that the Berlin crowd would appreciate such units popping up and suggesting that the police were no longer capable of providing protection.