Who Is Behind The France Riots?

 Over the weekend, this topic came up a bit.

What you have as a landscape....is a wave of high-school blockades and street clashes that began as student protests over school conditions and has partly turned into rioting in general (going beyond school structures). 

The general belief....the school riot stuff....started with students, and the next wave....non-school buildings....was mostly far-left political actors/activists.

The term 'hijacking-a-cause' gets uttered this AM.

Education Minister Édouard Geffray has said far-left and ultra-left activists (yeah, going beyond the normal far-left BS)....have infiltrated the movement.

I noted this AM....the Paris police chief Patrice Faure....said the original organizers no longer control it and spoken of “professional rioters".

All of this affecting the spring France Presidential election?  Yes.

Odds of the riots continuing this week?  If they do....the police probably will figure out the activists involved, and detain them.  If you ask me....probably 60-percent of the public see some reason to bring in far-right political agenda folks....to fix the problem.

5 Oct 2026: Germany: 7 Stories

 1.  Last night's (Sunday) Greece-Germany soccer game?  0-0.  I watched around 20 minutes of it....decent play....Greece probably shocked some folks....played exceptionally well.

2.  Focus health expert....advising that you can avoid sugar cravings...by snacking healthy stuff (nuts, fruit, etc) every four hours (in between).

3.  Berlin-City Linke Party says they hope to conclude talks with SPD/Greens by Wed night....to form a coalition for the city-government.

4.  BMW is in same path as VW....cutting jobs/cost.

5.  Interesting opinion piece via WELT.....giving German 16-year-old's the right to vote....when dozens of other functions say maturity requires a age of 18 (driver's license, ownership of guns, purchase of booze, etc).

6.  Oktoberfest ended yesterday.  All-time record on visitors.....7.4-million guests.

7.  Winter-tire week for me....dragging the wife's Audi to a tire shop on Friday....to put the winter tires on. It took me years to accept this German idea.....winter/summer tires over all-weather tire habit (of the US).  

Greece, Reparations and the Marshall Plan

In the summer of 1930....the best description of the German economy was "heading-toward-failure".  Unemployment was surging and business operations were stalled.  Banks were generally on the edge of failure. The public perception for the September election in 1930....was to garner support for the Nazi Party.  They would pick up around eighteen percent of the national vote.....mostly as a protest-type vote and in hopes of a recovery for the economy.

By the summer of 1932, the Nazi Party had established enough clout to control national politics in Germany.  With the economy still in a marginal status....the plan head involved two massive areas of public expenditures (for the military industry and for the national infrastructure....roads, state buildings and bridges).  For the finance office to cover the growing debt....they used revenue taxes and a new gimmick of a national "I-O-U" allotment (Mefo bills, as they are commonly referred to).

The package going to the public from 1932 on....was that socialism was the general solution to the public problems with the economy.  

Unemployment did gradually resolve itself.....mostly because of public projects and the military industry.  So, in the minds of most....the Nazi Party was delivering on their promise.

Somewhere in the mix by 1936....exports from Germany going out had declined by roughly ten-percent.  Imports had climbed approximately ten-percent.  You can guess the general effect on economy....it was dragging Germany down.

Rationing arrived in 1939, as Germany was marching across various neighbor countries.  If it hadn't been for the military situation.....most of the public would have asked why rationing was necessary and if there wasn't more to the economic woes than publicly stated by the government.

In the spring of 1941....both Germany and Italy arrived in Greece.  Some Greeks may try to deny Italian involvement.....but the Italians were there as well.  In fact, the original invasion of Greece was around October of 1940.....six months prior....where the Italians found the Greeks capable of defending against a marginal Italian force.  With the Germans assisting....there were no issues.

Military-wise.....roughly forty thousand within the region of Athens died of starvation, and somewhere in the range of another fifty thousand Greeks died in conflict with the Italians or Germans.

Somewhere in the middle of this invasion....the Germans arrive to the Greek National Bank and want a loan.  Oddly, this is written out, with zero-percent interest on the document, and Germans walk away with the bulk of the bank's money.  It should be noted.....this was not robbery....documentation exists and the amount agreed upon.

When the Greeks today talk of the loan, it's a factual piece of information.  You can sum the loan up to around eleven billion Euro in today's money.....with zero-percent interest figured into the scheme.

When the war finished, Germany and Japan were both finished off economically.  American historians went back and reviewed the lessons learned from WW I.  The Germans had huge reparations owed to England and France.  It unsettled the recovery of Germans from 1919....to the election period of 1930.  Fascism grew out of the reparation story.  In order to prevent that.....the US enacted what would be called the Marshall Plan.  If anyone in Europe had a reparations angle....they'd come to the US and avoid engaging Germany into another mess.  The US....would pay for everyone's reparations.

I know.....it's hard to believe and no one really talks about this angle to the Marshall Plan....but it was about preventing WW III or the recovery of the German fascism agenda.  Between this.....the division of Germany, and the US troops staying in Germany....things would be ironed out and prevent something stupid from happening.

What did the Greeks get from the Marshall Plan?  Roughly 3.5 billion dollars between 1947 and 1951 (in today's dollars).  Did the Greeks of 1947 understand this deal?  Yes.  Are these gentlemen all dead today?  Yes.  Do any of the political figures of Greece today grasp the Marshall Plan?  It's difficult to say if any of the top twenty Greek leaders can give a simple eight-line explanation to the Marshall Plan and it's effect on the Greek economy.

Around 1960, the German government came back and offered a settlement on each Greek killed and damages caused.  The Greeks accepted that deal.  Do any of the Greek leaders of today remember that arrangement?  Probably not.  Did any of the victim money go to actual families in Greece?  Probably not.

Did any Communist country in Europe get Marshall  Plan funding?  No...that was a key feature of the Soviet monopoly over eastern Europe.

One of the odd features of the German recovery after WW I (if you even desire to refer to it as a "recovery")....was by 1925......Germany had gone on a turbo 'binge' of borrowing money.  They were deep into debt within a few years.  This was all done because the government was stuck with an economy that was stalled and unable to recover.  Flooding the market with borrowed money, they gave the public and business the impression of a full recovery in process.....WHEN it wasn't recovering.

In some ways....Greece since 2008 has done the exact same thing as Germany after WW I.  Greece might have been already walking in the borrowed money scheme back twenty and thirty years ago.....but since 2008.....they've gone to various levels beyond anything that the Germans schemed up in 1925.

The reparations game here?  What happened after the Trojan War (1194 BC)?  What happened after the Greece-Punic War in 600 BC?  What happened after the Greece-Persia War (499 BC)?  What happened in the Social War of 357 AD?  What happened in 334 with Alexander the Great and his Greek Army invading various neighbors?  What happened in the Greek Civil Wars of 1823 (phase one and phase two)?   The sad truth is that Greece has had over sixty various wars or campaigns over the past three-thousand years.  Greece ought to be paying for reparations of various wars to their neighbors, if they take this reparations game serious.

Security Upgrade

 I walked around Wiesbaden mid-city this afternoon.  There's a small city park....two war memorials 'hangout' for drunks/alcoholics.

Police added a security 'trailer' with lights/cameras in recent days.

Interesting unit....must be five or six cameras on the tower platform.

Around 10 AM....if you walk by....there's always between fifteen and twenty-five folks (men/women) on their first beer of the morning.  By mid-afternoon....most are on their fifth or sixth beer.  

I thought it was fairly safe...other than drunks arguing with drunks....never any violent BS.

Where This Sudden Call For Elections In Spain Might Go?

If you use current polls (August)...the center-right PP Party is in first place....and a PSOE (Sanchez left-of-center crew) majority within reach.  Three points separate them.

Rumored election day?  29 November now.

In the control of seats?  PP (right-of-center) is figured to take around 139 seats, and VOX (right-wing) would take near 64 seats.  You need 176 seats to have coalition.  The 4th and 5th place parties?  They'd take a max of ten seats (not really figured into anything).

So there are three things falling into play....Sanchez as PM....is probably gone. With all this migration-hype....you can figure some type of massive change is in the pipeline....destined for January-February action.  Finally, a lot of the left-of-center social promises of the past decade....probably are going to dissolve.

If you asked me the problems in this election?  I'd say unemployment for youth, housing issues, migration, safety-security, and dynamics of tourism overwhelming 'reality'.  

Could the Sanchez crew pull out a miracle of 4-to-6 points plus?  Yes....if they were to hype the housing crisis and fixing unemployment numbers.  

Not Front-Page News, But.....

In the past week....a 28-year old Russian gal....lab-worker....out of Irkutsk (Siberia, Russia)...died of pneumonic plague. In case you were curious....once you show the first symptom or two....you need to be on a treatment program....in the first 24 hours.  Otherwise, within a couple of days...you will die.

So regionally....the Russian authorities have reacted.  They figure about 200 folks had some contact with the gal, and have them 'detained' (held in isolation).  If you do the numbers....if nothing shows up by the 7th day....they probably will be released.

Were the 200 the only folks who might have been in contact?  They don't seem to say.

What I found interesting?  At the stage of being 'bad-off'....she was admitted to a Covid-center.  Upon entering....her health worsened in a matter of hours....with the staff putting her on a ventilator.  Shortly after that....she died.

The general belief?  I spent about two hours this AM looking over the story, the pneumonic plague business, statistical data.  If no one else comes up with issues by next Friday (the 9th)....odds are in favor of everyone getting relaxed and assuming this doesn't turn into a serious event with 20-odd people in some detention situation and death spiral.

Worst case scenario?  By next weekend....the city of Irkutsk (Siberia) gets locked-down and no one allowed to enter/leave.  

Where This 'France-Has-Fallen' Episode Leads Onto?

 First, some facts. France has about 58,100 schools and secondary establishments under the education system (roughly 47,400 primary schools, 7,000 colleges, and 3,700 lycées and related sites in 2024.

Using the education system statistics....the number of buildings in crappy/poor/dilapidated condition....reaches around 10-percent (6,000 listed).  Oddly, this is based off not only building structure and hygiene....but safety/security.

If you quizzed German authorities....their numbers are in the same shape.  It's not just a French problem.

The riots being led by kids only?  No....teachers are in the mix, along with activists.

More of a urban problem (for the riots) than in rural regions?  That's been noticed by journalists and commented upon.  

National list of the fire-damage on schools?  No....that's another odd thing.  You can go city-by-city and gather-up a list, but the national authorities aren't discussing a national problem/agenda.  I asked AI to assemble the data....the come-back was around 100 structures (out of 60,000).

Vandalism and attacks on buses/trams/trains?  In the past day or two....yeah, those were targeted as well.

Macron's crew in reaction?  I would suggest they are trying to just let the 'kids' go as far as necessary, and hope they run out of 'passion'.  It does seem like the activists/'bosses' are being noted, detained and likely charged-up.

Affecting the Presidential election in the spring of 2027?  YEAH....that is my big-take-away from the whole episode.  Most French people are looking at the agenda and destruction....thinking some extreme action is now required by the National Rally Party (Le Pen).

Any of this bleeding over into Germany?  So far....no.  German police would be fairly quickly to react....detain....putting parents into the position of being responsible.  If your kid did damage....there's a bill to pay later.  

New Pollical Poll

 National poll:

AfD leads at 30-percent (up 1).....with CDU-CSU at 18-percent (down 1).  Greens at 14-percent.  SPD at 14-percent.  Linke at 10 percent.  

Unrest in France (Presidential election starts in April 2027), and serious chance of Spanish nat'l election being set-up by end of 2026?  Yeah.

Both would have an affect on German numbers....likely adding 2-to-3 points to AfD (meaning the CDU-CSU gives them half of the votes), and the Greens likely moving up to 18-percent (SPD losing some support).  

The normal national German election would be March 2029.  Unless some economic numbers turn....I think Merz and the CDU will be under pressure to collapse the gov't coalition in 2027.  

This public view of France, Spain and Germany?  It mostly revolves around housing issues, budget/finance woes, migration spiral, unemployment (particularly of the youth) and deportation problems.   

In the case of Spain....if a election is called for....it'll be a right-of-center win.  In the case of spring of 2027....National Rally (the right-wing guys) will be the likely winner.  In the case of Germany....while AfD might win....they can't form a coalition....so you'd end up with the Greens partnering with the SPD and CDU.