Well....in four weeks....this 'war' likely ends (I presume a break-up and Persia comes to exist with 60-percent of the territory).
Upon a break-up....the US and the Middle East have first 'dibs' on support and contracts.....if you didn't help to bring down the Iran gov't....you will not be welcomed by the new Shah gov't.
Add to this....German-Iranians....are not pro-Iran.....they want the regime to fall.
Pretty simple situation to select sides.
1. Bad case of flu.....now on day 7. Haven't had this 'level' since early 1990s. Was even worse than 2021's Covid. I've been flu-vax 'free' since 1999....never having more than a 24-hour bug.
2. TUI Cruises' "Mein Schiff 4" is currently located near the attacks on US bases in the port of Port Zayed in Abu Dhabi. From what was described....some small rocket hit the ship....minor damage. No one harmed. 2,500 folks on board.
3. Islamic guy seriously injured several clubgoers in Bielefeld with two knives. Some suggestion that he has a ISIS history.
4. Public TV (ARD/ZDF) hyped-up.....30,000 Germans in the war-zone....gotta-be-rescued. Foreign Ministry....in middle of the mess.
Hate to say it....but they'd have to ask the 'evil-Trump' to rescue them out of harm's way.
5. My view of the war?
Look....fuel reserves/diesel-gas-jet fuel....enough for about 4 weeks. After that....nothing is going to move within Iran. The 'bosses' ran a marginalized economy for forty years....never reflecting upon reality.
They locked down the Straits....meaning nothing gets in or out....screws them as much as everyone else.
My prediction? In 4 to 6 weeks....Iran breaks up.....probably into 3 new countries.
This past week...a German court came up and said the remarkable efforts to 'control' or 'ban' AfD.....aren't legal. So the 'lads'/gals over at SPD, CDU, CSU, Linke, Greens, etc....have to huddle again and figure out some way of taking AfD down.
Why? Well...they are on a schedule where things in 2029....will lead to a coalition-problem by 2033's national election.
To explain this? To form a coalition...you need a 'winner'....who will partner with your party. In the old days....the CDU-CSU and SPD...together would get around 60-plus percent of the vote. Presently....the folks are in the 35-to-40 percent of the vote.
This means a 4th partner. This generally means text on a agreement....which dilutes your promises to voters. For the CDU-CSU folks....it's 'poison'.
AfD's unusual strategy? Well....they suggest that the asylum program, deportations and crime numbers are a national problem. Presently, I'd say that 25-percent of the public readily agree....with another 20-percent asking the SPD, CDU, and Green parties.....stupid questions.
Part of the issue now goes to deportation issues. You have 10s of thousands who failed the application or got into legal trouble. You go back to the original country and ask them to resolve this by taking 'Marvin' back home. Well....why would they go and accept 'Marvin' back?
Simply 'dumping' 'Marvin'? That's not going to happen.
So AfD has the parties in a bind.
One day....probably around 2033....AfD will get 50-percent of the vote and 'win'....without the need of a coalition....(based on deportation, crime, and asylum issues). So this ban effort is mostly a effort to prevent that scenario.
I'm not saying AfD is right or wrong...just that they logically picked the weak points of the other parties, and they can't resolve this situation.
I'll also admit....on economics, commerce and jobs....AfD is probably not the folks you want to resolve these issues.
Since early 2026....you can't help but notice that as public TV in Germany (ARD or ZDF) do public forum chats, and Epstein comes up....the guests/moderator....typically go to the same scripted discussion....that there is only one single 'evil-character' within the files, and it has to be Trump.
Yes, there are various topics they can discuss....without engaging on Epstein. Germany has 10,000 problems going on, and a thousand of them are better topics than Epstein (who is probably dead).
The first occasion or two....I just accepted it as part of the 'talk'.
The last time or two....I get up and do the dishes, or try to turn the channel.
I might add here....if you gathered up a thousand working-class Germans....more than half have virtually zero understanding of Epstein.
Polling done recently...compared to 2021 results.
Greens won in 2021....presently have lost 7-points....probably will get 2nd place in this election.
CDU, have 3 points over 2021 results....will likely win.
AfD....have added 9 points over 2021 results....near 19-percent currently.
2031? Well.....it makes you wonder if the CDU can find a path to stay ahead.
1. I noted this week....Poland came up and discovered several 'secret' tunnels dug....into Belarus. No one is saying much over 'use'. Maybe for black-market purposes....maybe for drugs....maybe for getting refugees into Europe.
2. This term....“worldview-confirmation broadcasts” is being brought up a good bit with the AI-scandal at ZDF-TV. German wording...."Weltbild-Bestätigungs-Sendungen".
3. For reference.....ZDF is located across the river...by Mainz....on a fairly decent hillside. Some ZDF employees have always joked about the network/location....calling the complex....Märchenberg.
This translates into 'fairy-tale-mountain'.
Yeah, it hints that they make up stories.
4. Koln Administrative Court (yesterday) announced they not only prohibit the classification of the AfD as "confirmed right-wing extremist," but the Office for the Protection of the Constitution is also no longer allowed to disseminate certain statements about the party.
This probably consumed 6 minutes of the Thursday night 15-minute news piece.
5. Official now.....the next head of state of the Federal Republic of Germany will be chosen on 30 January 2027. The Federal Convention will convene on that date and select the successor to Federal President Steinmeier.
About a 99-percent chance that it'll be a woman (or transwoman).
1. Where Germans get their TV news from?
Well...there are two avenues.
First, there's public TV....ZDF and ARD.
Second, you have N-24, N-TV, RTL, SAT1, Vox, and Pro-7. (The commercial TV).
If you watch path 1 or 2....you eventually notice that public TV has the higher amount of climate-change, anti-Trump chatter, and pro-intellectual view-points. The commercial news? Mostly factual data....what happened or what changed in the past 24 hours, and condensed enough to avoid being 'too-much'.
2. Hamburg authorities approved a massive bridge project...over the Elbe. Price? 1-billion Euro. Finished? Some suggest 2038....it wouldn't shock me if it was 2045 (with issues), and coming closer to 2-billion Euro.
3. Berlin-City is putting aside around 1-billion Euro to buy 238,000 trees to plant.
I'll just go and predict....in 20 years....environmentalists proclaim a serious tree problem...with 150,000 trees to be cut down...for the safety of the city.
1. What is a Relotius-Moment?
It's been used a lot over the past three days. Claas Relotius was a German journalist working for Der Spiegel (major German news magazine). Back in 2018, he was exposed for making up details, quotes, and even entire stories in his award-winning articles. This developed into a 4-star scandal, sometimes called "Spiegelgate," involving at least 14 falsified pieces and led to his resignation, the revocation of several journalism awards, and widespread criticism of media practices in Germany.
So when you utter..."Relotius moment", it refers to a significant journalistic failure or crisis where fabrication, misleading content, or ethical lapses are revealed.
Yeah, ZDF (the public TV folks) are in the middle of such a moment....preferring not to admit such.
At this point....the only AI-scandal member of ZDF to be 'let-go'....is a journalist who complained to the board about the lack of attention of leadership.
2. Bus strike in Wiesbaden/Frankfurt area....Friday and Saturday. Major disruption for bar traffic for the weekend.....several million in losses expected.
3. Austrian police say 'enough'....retiring E-cars from the force. Reasons? Poor breaking is often discussed.
4. SPD closing the gap in the Pfalz state election (22 March election day). SPD ahead at 28-percent, with CDU at 27-percent. AfD at 19-percent. Linke at 5-percent....Greens at 9-perent....FW at 5-percent.
Main question....will FW and Linke maintain the 5-percent to get seats?
5. 20 Sep is the Berlin-City election. Polls released yesterday....AfD has moved to 2nd place (17-percent). CDU firmly at 22-percent. SPD at 16-percent. Linke and Greens tied at 15-percent each.
6. Interesting court case in Hamburg unfolding. Apparently.....some reporters from "Stern" and RTL uncovered the murderous attack plans of a right-wing terrorist youth thug-gang.
Eight juvenile 'lads' accused.....gang is referred to as the "Last Wave of Defense." Gang boss is 15 years old.
Method of communication? Interesting detail....WhatsApp.
Reading through the material....the group had hefty goals....recruiting past borders, and eventually overthrowing the German gov't.
