VW: To Be Bought?

 Philipp Raasch wrote a piece for Focus this AM....suggesting a takeover of VW....by China's BYD.

Three observations.

First, Raasch is a competent economist (not a VW official or politician).  He is correct....VW is in serious jeopardy.

Second, as much as the union thinks they are 'helping' VW....they are probably simply delaying this purchase in the end....where it's it the only fix-it-scenario left.

Third, if VW is bought....I don't see how Mercedes, Opel, or BMW survive long-term.

Now, if you asked me....how faithful  are Germans to VW (over BYD)?  I'd say more than 80-percent won't buy a BYD product.....but if BYD bought VW and renamed themselves VWB....that might convince them to stay with  the product.

Explainning This World Cup Red Card Gimmick

 First....to what red and yellow cards mean.  Soccer is a pretty rough sport....after pro-wrestling, roller-derby, and WNBA action....I rank soccer number 4 on 'hurt'.  So to limit incidents.....they hand out yellow cards to ensure you don't get ultra-rough.  Two yellow-cards in a game....you leave (no sub allowed in), and you miss the next game.  The two yellow cards equal one red card.  

Can you go from zero yellow cards to one red card...asap?  Yes.

I've gone back and reviewed the video of this incident....mostly agreeing myself....the American deserved a yellow-card.  Red?  I'm not that sure about.

Then I note that I've watched a dozen World Cup games.  If I were a ref....I'd have issued 200 yellow-cards for the dozen games, and probably forty red cards.

Getting the suspension lifted?  Well....this has hyped-up the Belgium folks, and most everyone else.

Has this lifting been done before?  Yes.

Trump's role?  He basically picked-up the phone and asked for a review. For TDS-sufferers....it's a terrible thing.

If the US wins against Belgium.....there's to be massive grumbling.

Only 4-star crap from the Cup so far?  No....I'd suggest a dozen-odd crap things going  on.  For the Germans....they are still crying over the loss.

Oddly.....99-percent of Americans know nothing about yellow/red cards.

6 July 2026: Germany: 4 Stories

 1.  In a lot of smaller communities (in rural regions)...there's a anti-wind-generator attitude....with  people saying there's health risks.

New study, conducted by the University of Augsburg....has analyzed data from the USA. The study found no health effects from wind turbines.

Probably not the end of the discussion.

German farmers do suggest their cattle are 'unsettled' by the rotating blades....reasons are never detailed.

2.  World Cup BS....Belgium is attempting to “lawyer up”....to halt the return of US striker Balogun (red-carded out, but FIFA allowed him to come back.

Oddly....whole thing pushed by Trump.  I'd say 99-percent of soccer intellectuals are charged-up and negative about this. 

If US beats Belgium?  Things will get crazy.

3.  Lot of VW chatter for this week....four plants being discussed.....100k jobs at risk.

4. Greenland chatter up again....US wants to 'acquire' (still). 

Never really ends.  Keeps Danes pepped-up.  

The Anti-AfD Protest

 The AfD Party has been holding the yearly 'big' congress meeting the past 24 hours....in Erfurt.

Lot of public TV coverage (via ZDF/ARD)....more so on the protest folks, than the meeting itself.

Protest 'bosses' say 50,000 protest attendees. Cops are saying at the peak....mid-afternoon....25,000.

In terms of blocking AfD attendees?  Zero success.

Three remaining state elections for 2026 and potential 'gains' for AfD?  Berlin City election (20 Sep), Sachsen-Anhalt (6 Sep), and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (20 Sep).

Berlin?  AfD will likely take 16-percent of the vote.  Five parties in  Berlin with a chance of 16-percent or more of the vote....fairly divided.

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern? Latest INSA poll suggests 35-percent 'win'....but no ability to form a coalition.

Sachsen-Anhalt?  INSA says currently....AfD at 41-percent.  But there is this odd factor.....at least four parties  with 5-percent or less in the forecast. You only get seats if you have 5-percent or more.   By the numbers game....there's 17-percent of the vote that may not get results. So you do the math, and find that AfD is fairly close to 50-percent and will not require a coalition.  I'm not saying that this path is possible...only that the math gives this funny option.

5 July 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

 1.  This Stade shooting update.

Almost daily....there's another odd  piece to the story I started on Monday.  So, the pistol has come up.  This German-Turk....a week or two prior to  the shooting....bought the pistol from SOME guy (not a weapons-offical-dealer) in Berlin  (near the 'zoo' station)....for 4k Euro cash.

For those who've never been to the 'zoo' area....it's where drunks/dopers mostly hang-out. Having been there a couple of times (near my hotel on the last trip)....it's a place you leave the subway, and walk quickly to get a hundred meters away. You don't linger there.

The car (Mercedes AMG)?  Well....there's a lot of questions over who officially owns the car.  Some say it's  privately owned....some suggest it's a NGO-group....some suggest it might be a relative's car.  The police?  They are saying next to nothing.

Then you have this odd 'help' being provided to the German-Turk guy....relating to a migration/refugee group....when the guy was born/educated here in Germany.  In some way....they are treating him like a migrant....which makes no sense.

2.  That Canada-Morocco World Cup game last night?  Extremely rough....number of yellow-card warnings.

3.    I watched a news piece this AM....gas station situation.....outer-ring of Moscow....approximately two-hundred vehicles lined up for refueling....gas-cars and diesel-trucks. Guy estimated....minimum wait of two hours, and you were going to have some limit of what you could buy.

He sums it up....we are approaching harvest season in 2 months.  It's probably not going to be a full harvest....with food shortages likely to be predicted by the end of 2026.

4.  Klopp has said he'll take the German national team soccer coach job....but won't fly back to Germany for the interview.  Yeah....he wants them (the DFB top  leadership) to fly and interview him...in the US.  

Assistant coaches?  The present guys have to go.....so DFB have to terminate them, and compensate in some way.  For Nagelsmann and them?  Probably in the 10-million Euro range.

5.  Essen mass brawl....150 guys.....1 guy dead.  Cops investigating.

6.  DGB study.....one in four Germans say they are physically unable to work all the way to 67. 

I'm Sorry

 Over the past three or four days, I've viewed fifty-odd clips (from Twitter) of  Germans, Australians, Brits, Italians and Japanese...who were overcome with emotions over their trip to the US for the World Cup games.

Probably a quarter of the crowd were overcome with emotions.  They had weeks/months of their public TV folks telling/warning  of the 'terrible' America, and the stories were BS.

The food, the beverages.....the friendly nature....the happy enthusiasm....the grocery stories....everything was 'Disneyland-like'.  

I'm sorry.

Going back home.....will be hard for them.  All that public TV BS....will be ineffective.  Some will ask how  to get Fox-News.  Some will ask  how to make that tangy ribs sauce.  Some will have a taste for whiskey.

Yeah, we overdid it.....we made folks feel welcome.

Yeah, we did something terrible....making Trump's America look better than what the media suggested.

Fixing this?  How? 

Three Theories Of Mine

 1.  I think from the day (Sep 2023) that DFB hired 'coach' Nagelsmann for the national team....more than fifty sports-figures/journalists....just started laughing and knew the success story of Nagelsmann....was a bluff.

I think in June as the team arrived in the US to train....the failures of the team were obvious.

2.  Every time some German politician notes a successful reform-package....a clock starts ticking....to reform the reform-package....fixing the mess laying there.

3.  If you start counting across German new/media (I think).....a typical German.....gets forty-plus 'lectures' per week. Between age forty and fifty....half of German society can mute the lectures, and not pay attention.

I also believe the lecture-people condemn them as 'stupid'....when they are actually fairly bright....in muting worthless information.

Five Observations

1.  That Turk-German shooter from  Monday...in Stade....has a twist or two.

Back in 2021....this guy was in Turkey....and was detained/arrested by the Turkish cops....on sexual abuse of his daughter (this is a separate daughter from the German situation).  I asked AI on the age....but none of the Turkish newspapers noted this.

So he was held.....then one day....he escaped.  

I paused over this.....when you get detained and held in a Turkish jail....you don't normally escape.  In my mind....there's probably a fair amount of a bribe....where the door is left unlocked.  Oddly, after he escaped....being a German citizen....he went 'home'.  You would think....some Turkish prosecutor would have talked to the Germans and searched for the guy.  But 'no'....nothing much happened. 

All this connectivity to the NGO business?  Well....it makes you wonder.

2.  Klopp pretty much 'fixed' to be the new soccer coach?

There is this small matter....he has still some kind of continuing contract....where he can't coach another team.  

3.  No one yet seems able to explain the new sick-note procedure....where you MUST start the note on day one.

I asked my German wife....odds of me getting an appointment with our doctor....she responded.....'the staff won't answer until 9 AM....it's 50-50 if  you can get a appointment to be seen by 5 PM'.

This being done strictly by phone?  Well.....ethically, it's possible....just me telling the 'doc' I feel sick.

Coalition screw-up?  Yeah....this will be a major problem.

4.  One of the biggest fires in a decade or two....in Stuttgart last night.  Two warehouses in an industrial area on the Neckar River.  

5.  Drought continues on....my cherry tree has probably lost one-third of it's leaves now.  There's been two ultra-light rains over a 10-week period now.  Temps?  Fantastic....six days of 24 C to 28 c.