First, fairly dramatic 'tone' from ZDF and ARD (the two public TV networks) last night. Both had spent the whole last month on theme of the 'end-of-democracy' if AfD won.
Second, numbers-wise....AfD to run the state government....now requires a coalition. Well...the BSW Party secured a 5-percent situation....thus giving them 4 seats of the 83, and they have expressed a willing nature to partner-up.
BSW considered far-left? Yeah. AfD considered far-right? Yeah. So it's a situation which makes you think the labels given by the news media....might not fit as designed.
Will there be a AfD/BSW coalition? I'd give it 50-50 odds....at least they will talk.
Third, polling? I thought in the end....the polls done in the final two weeks were fairly accurate.
Fourth, a long-term problem now for the CDU Party (Merz and company)? I'd suggest that they look fairly weak.
Fifth, why didn't the messaging of ARD/ZDF work to convince voters to oppose AfD? I would suggest that somewhere in the range of 50-percent of residents of the state....don't watch public TV....at all. So they missed the messaging, and only the viewership got the massive dose of anti-AfD. Kinda funny in a way.
Sixth, now you have to wonder...if the AfD/BSW team is in place.....at the state level....can AfD resolve the migration crisis? My view? I think there's in the range of 4,770 'guests' in S-A....who are on a deportation list (numbers reported at end of 2025). I suspect of this group....all will be getting a letter in 60-to-90 days....with a end-to-benefits situation (probably 1 January 2027 is my guess), and giving some impression that you'd best leave the state (likely inviting them to move to one of the remaining 15 states of Germany). I also suspect a rule or two will be added...once you commit a crime as a 'guest'.....you automatically get a deport-ASAP order. What this will attract as attention....other states will see the focus and probably copy some of the rules. I don't see a massive get-the-foreigners out as being necessary....if you had a job and were paying taxes.
Seventh, it's just odd how the election 'brand' came down to 'saving-democracy', and no one really talking much over crime statistics, deportation woes, or crime clans/gangs. The AfD's forty-plus-percent were pretty locked onto democracy being part of safety. They didn't see either the SPD or CDU as bringing change to public safety.
Finally, to be honest....if you end up with a CDU-SPD-Greens-Linke-BSW coalition....it'll end up being weak and marginally effective. It hurts Merz in various ways. If I were the CDU in this state....I'd pretend to make an effort, and 30 days later....say a coalition is not possible....making another state election by the end of November likely.
Next state election? Thirteen days now....Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Last poll....a week ago...shows AfD at 35-percent....with the SPD at 32-percent. CDU at 8-percent. There might be a slight boost for AfD over two weeks...but I don't see them going past 38-percent. So the SPD will get the nod to form a gov't after AfD fails. If the CDU gets less than 5-percent? There would be a massive negative trend, and be a major national problem.
At least the saving-democracy BS lessens for a while now.