Current and Future Tobacco Tax in Germany?

 The current tobacco excise duty (Tabaksteuer)....since 1 January 2026....isaround 12.3 cents per cigarette.   

You can figure the ad valorem tax to around 19.84 percent of the retail selling price (Kleinverkaufspreis / KVP).  

Pack of smokes.....3.91 Euro of excise duty tax.

End of the story?  NO.  Then the VAT is figured.  VAT is currently at 19-percent, and by 2027....likely to extend to 21-perccent.

So...one  pack costs around 9.50 Euro (20 smokes).

More coming?

Well....there's a draft being pushed.  A pack....after this new add-on tax occurs....will be in the 10.50 Euro range.

The real end of the story?  My humble belief is that by the end of 2028....at least another 50 Euro-cents of tax will be added.

I personally don't care (I've never smoked)....but there's around 11-million Germans (age 18 to 90).....who smoke, and a fair number are at the poverty line.  Those unhappy folks might want to one day want a opposition political stance. Since all this tax-happy stuff is CDU-SPD related.....I wonder what opposition party this group would hang upon?

Any ideas?

N-TV/RTL Political Standing Poll

 Poll released today:

AfD: 27-percent

CDU-CSU: 22 percent

SPD: 12-percent

Linke: 12-percent

Greens: 15-percent

No one else above 5-percent.

Pace of things....by October....AfD is likely at 30-percent and CDU-CSU at 20-percent.  

I'll just say...both the CDU-folks and SPD-folks...need some type of recovery and up-swing on public sentiment.  

Are Germans Peeved Over Rich-Folks?

 Last night's ARD forum show ('Arena').....was a long discussion, with a politician, and two moderators....with forty-odd people to ask questions.

The jest of this 1-hour show?  Mostly a long talk over the public frustration with 'rich-people'.

If you follow German polls over the past decade....it's roughly 80-percent of society who feel that rich Germans are a 'problem'.  There's different grumblings, and hurt feelings over this.

The general fix-it solution?  I'd say a majority (say over 50-percent) feel you need to tax rich-people more.  

I've pondered this a lot, but come to a odd conclusion....if you are going to tax more....I'd like to hear how you intend to distribute the money.  To be honest.....you are taking in forty extra billion Euro....trying to pay public workers more, or offer more money to buy statues, or offering free dance classes for people, or building forty new submarines, or making train-travel free.....isn't that smart.

I'm also of the mind that if you taxed folks more....somewhere around age 60....maybe half of this rich-population might go and leave the country....taking their wealth with them (like the way California folks left).

The odd factor?  Generally,  if you make over 70k Euro a year....in Germany....you are considered 'rich'.  That heating technician next door....that makes 80k Euro?  Yeah....he's rich.  The baker with 8 employees....making 75k Euro a year.....yeah, he's rich.  The TV moderator making 105k Euro a year?  Yeah, he's rich.

From my American prospective?  Generally, I'd say $1-mil a year is the  point of being rich.  If you were a back-up catcher for the Dodgers....minimum wage for a year is $760k.....which I don't really consider to be ultra-rich.  

It's an odd dynamic....you want to get ahead in life, and folks are closely monitoring your appearance of wealth.....so you need to kinda pretend you are marginally making it....while taking in 90k Euro a year....something I'd call welfare-rich.

Three Odd Things I Noticed While In Berlin

 First, around 10 to 12 each morning...leaving the hotel....I noticed non-German kids walking the streets....obviously NOT in school.

Two or three here.....a couple of times each morning.

They aren't worried about skipping school, or missing classes.

Second, if I compared police-saturation in Berlin....to Mainz, Wiesbaden or Frankfurt.....there's probably five times the number of police on duty in Berlin.

I'm not saying there's a lot of crime....just a lot of police to suggest you are 'safe'.

Third, we stayed in two different hotels during the week.  The first was a loft-apartment situation....living room/kitchen on ground unit, and bedroom/bath up  a stairway on the upper floor.  It was a odd stairway....with steps that were about 5 cm (1.96  inches) higher than your normal step.

By the 2nd day at this hotel....my knee was in some pain from the extra 'rise' of each step.  

I asked my wife....she noted the same issue.  

Twenty-Year Financial Plan Idea?

I tried to make sense out of this. 

Bärbel Bas....SPD Party co-chair and Germany’s Federal Minister of Labor and Social Affairs....has hyped-up a long-term (roughly 20-year) industrial/economic strategy or plan. 

To be honest....if you did ask....there's really not ever been  a strategy/plan that went past four years.

How would you write a 20-year plan?  Unknown.  It'd likely have over 500 'pieces/parts', and be broken every four to six years.

Finding a PhD expert to openly support this idea?  That might be a challenge.

Getting the public support behind this?  I seriously doubt it.

How State Elections Coming Up Influence Break-Up Of The Coalition

 There are three state elections  remaining in 2026....all  in September (Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Berlin-City, and Sachsen-Anhalt).

If you asked on polling numbers....Sachsen-Anhalt and Mecklenburg....end up as AfD 'wins' but not enough to form a government....leading both to a number two 'winner'....building a enormously weakened coalition.

Berlin's election?   The CDU will win, but require two partners to form a coalition....making this a fairly weakened situation.

For 2027?  There are five state elections. I've looked at the numbers....they all end up as SPD or CDU 'wins'....but a growing problem is the AfD numbers in each (several approach the 15-to-20 percent level).  

You could easily have the CDU in a marginalized situation....where they can only partner with far-left 'associates' and the public sentiment goes 'south'.

If I were to predict chaos, and a early national election...it'd be in the spring of 2028...before the Bavaria/Hessen state elections (fall).

If you have three or more of the 2027 state elections where the AfD ranks near 25-percent...the Merz-era will likely conclude, and some early election would appeal to the various parties of the Bundestag.

Wild-card status?  BSW and the FDP  are both rebuilding status.....hoping for 5-plus-percent by the next federal election.

Why The German Army Expansion Is Likely To Fail

 Humble opinion:

Germans in general....bear a collective responsibility for the 'woes'/crimes of their 1930s/1940s generation.  Call  it 'inherited guilt' or fake guilt....but the system is rigged against them.

Add to this....from the 1950s  on....there's a mentality existing...."Never again war".  Taught in school and continually hyped.

There's a general culture that victory is 'bad', and can only lead to some type of guilt.

Several polls over the past year have led to numbers (50-percent and higher) of an attitude among young Germans.....serving the nation is not a good idea.

28 Apr 2026: Germany: 5 Things

 1. SPD Party came out yesterday....talking up a new cigarette tax 'bump'....going 20-percent up over present tax.

If you were a SPD voter and a smoker.....yeah, you probably are a bit peeved.

2. Last night, via ARD (Channel 1)....'Arena' came on....public forum show (live).  One guest...live audience to  ask questions.  CSU boss....Soder (Premier-President of Bavaria).

I'll just say that the two moderators attempted every angle possible to make him stumble, and he 'sliced' right through them.  Impressive 'bout'.

The one curious point dragged up......by German definitions....anyone making over 70,000 Euro a year...is considered 'RICH', and in the top category of taxation.  I'll point out....lot of heating technicians and AC-repair guys fit into this category, and they don't really see themselves as 'rich'.

3. Another Timmy-the-whale rescue operation today.  

4. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (known by 'AKK') is a retired German politician from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). She was the  hand-picked replacement for Merkel, but things fell apart in the year prior to the election and she declined the 'role'.

She came up in news yesterday.....she's set to meet with several Green Party folks, and see if any middle-ground can be achieved.  Best guess?  The CDU is probably starting to think early election probability is nearing 50-percent.  They'd like to swap out partners....getting the Greens instead of the SPD.

The one issue with this idea?  AfD is nearing 30-percent (presently at 28-percent).  If you add up CDU-CSU and Green winning odds....combined, they won't reach 50-plus percent.

5. WELT put up a story on Russia....Putin has 26 defensive missile batteries around his  personal residence....NONE protecting refineries  of Russia.