If There Were A National German Election 'Now'?

 My humble thoughts.....very unlikely for remainder of 2026.  I'm likely to believe if you were forcing it....there's 3 state elections in mid-April....where the SPD probably will get more votes than the CDU. 

It might be a strategy to exist....gaming the system now....to get more state votes and show a 'trend'.

In this strategy....you collapse the gov't and gear a nat'l election in two months.  

Timing?  I would NOT do it (collapsing) any later than mid-December....forcing the election end of Feb.

Candidates?  I really can't think of any SPD person who'd hype it big-time.  If you asked best scenario....someone might drag the 'lame-horse-SPD-guy'  up around 17-to-18 percent max (hoping the Greens aren't do any better).

CDU?  It won't be Merz...more likely to Premier-President Wust/Soder.  I don't see either getting the CDU-CSU to any point better than 22-percent.

Win by AfD, but unable to form a coalition?  Yeah....that's most likely scenario.

Any big advantages for snap-election now?  Other than the 3 state elections or the France election in April/May....there's no real reason to hype it.

Final word?  Having a snap-election now.....probably leads to a 2028 snap-election again.  Fairly weak gov't....no matter who is in charge.

Nat'l Polling?

 INSA did a different poll over the past week, They split the CDU and CSU up....two collections:

CDU: polls 13.5-percent (down roughly .9-percent) and CSU at 4-percent (down .6-percent).

AfD?  Polling at 30.5-percent

SPD: 14.5-percent, Greens at 14.5-percent.  Both unchanged.

Linke: up .5-percent, to 10.5-percent

If you asked me over indicators....in 90 days (early Jan 2027)....I'd say the AfD will be close to 33-percent, and the CDU-CSU situation will be at 15.5-percent.  

Both the CDU and SPD top level need some type of 'face-change'....new 'brand'.  

My view on the top five political topics?  Job losses, cost of energy, public-safety, migration reform/deportation results, and urbanization-housing 'fears'.  If you listed the top twenty cities of Germany....most all have a affordable housing 'mess' which needs to be resolved.  Same cities....fear of crime and mafia views.  

SPD Turmoil?

This AM....German Federal Minister of the Unemployed and Social Affairs....Barbel Bas....gave 'notice' (leaving).

She is the co-'boss' of the SPD Party.

Reasons?  Not much given.

What happens next?  The SPD has to have a election in early January to find the new co-'boss', and I suspect some name will be given for the new Minister....at the same time.

Likeable?  Within the SPD Party, yes.  If you asked for the accomplishments of the unemployed sector....there's nothing much to brag about.

My thoughts....there are several elections (state) in 2027, and maybe the party is eager to find a 'change' to the polling.

12 Oct 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

 1.  Saxony-Anhalt and BMW story continues on.  I noted over the weekend....someone connected the dots and laid out the reality....BMW already leases/sells limos to dictators around the world.  

Seems like BMW created a even bigger mess to clean up.  

2.  Odd evening with ARD's public forum show....Premier-President of Bavaria....Soder....appeared, and talked over the idea that if you were a CDU-member and in dissent....you ought to leave the party.  

To be honest....it's probably in the 10-to-20 percent range of disgruntled CDU Party members presently.

3.  Polish police are holding a guy....who'd had a plan to attack the Polish PM.  Still no clear agenda or ID.

4.  This oncoming sugar tax...isn't exactly supported by 'all' CDU politicians.  At least nine CDU-CSU Bundestag members are taking a negative position on the tax.

5.  WELT chatter.....French Fry prices expected to jump in coming months in Germany....some crop issues.

6.  1.4-million folks have received continued unemployment money....for five-plus years...of which, 37-percent are NON-Germans.  (N-TV this AM)

BREXIT Twist?

 This AM....I read through a piece....the UK gov't is going to lay out the idea.....that Russia got into 'meddling' for the 2016 BREXIT referendum.  Formal complaint?  Yeah.

Next?  Unknown.  I would imagine the PM and crew will say the referendum was not valid and they intend to rejoin the EU within weeks.  The EU?  They might be standing there in shock...never expecting this strategy.

Bigger shock?  Putin himself probably will admit the idea came up, and he voiced the idea that keeping the UK within the EU....was the primary goal....to make the EU ultra-weak.

Brits believing the Labour Party 'story'?  I would imagine that 40-percent of folks are ultra-skeptical of the Russian-BREXIT story.

Next?  Putin might admit that he did meddle to get the Labour Party win, and that it's not a valid government presently.

Twist....upon twist....upon twist.

Assassination Plan?

In the last hour.....Polish police report....having received information on a possible assassination attempt on Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and deputy prime minister Kamysz.

No actual attempt...just a plan in progress (the way I read the hype).

Who behind it?  Unknown.

The two guys...slightly left-of-center?  Strangely...true.

Putin figures into it?  I wouldn't speculate on that (yet).  

The Four Votes Story

 Saxony-Anhalt (the state) held the Premier-President/Speaker of the House vote this past week.  They expected 44 votes (from AfD and BSW members).  

Well....the final vote was 48...meaning that four votes came from the SPD, CDU or Greens.

There is some speculation (no facts) that the four were CDU voters.....which angers the national CDU folks.

What the CDU told it's folks to vote?  Abstain....so it would be neither a yes-vote or no-vote.

So this brings up the national feelings from CDU-CSU voters....would they split themselves in some way and half of them be pro-AfD?  No proof or facts to support the ide

Could things get heated-up in 2028...with a early election, and the CDU introduces a Chancellor candidate that half the party isn't happy about?  I'd suggest this scenario is now possible.

These four guys keeping quiet?  That's the remarkable thing.  

My Humble Thoughts Over The BMW-AfD 'Rage'

To set the stage for this 'comedy'....back in the September 2026 state election in Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD (Alternative for Germany) won about 44-percen of the vote.

As of 6 Oct....Tobias Rausch (AfD Party) was elected President (Speaker) of the state parliament (Landtag).....with AfD and BSW votes.

Oddly enough....the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt is classified by the state intelligence agency as “gesichert rechtsextremistisch” (confirmed right-wing extremist).   This means...at the federal-level....they are being 'spied-upon' as a suspect extremist group.

As Speaker of the state parliament....Rausch is entitled to a leased 'limo' (typically a Mercedes, Audi or BMW).  BMW had previously submitted a leasing offer for the Landtag president’s official car.

On the same day Rausch was elected, BMW’s headquarters withdrew the offer. Adding to the epic saga....no other major German premium manufacturer has bid for this specific contract (Saxony-Anhalt).

So....rage has started up, and you can easily make the statement....30-percent of the German public is peeved over BMW....and I would imagine as Audi and Mercedes lack of actions are obvious....they also will be in the crapper.

Tesla offering a limo?  Well....they don't really make one.  Cyber-truck?  Well....you might make the case that the Cyber-truck is a awkward pick for limo-service.  Would Tesla offer a lease deal?  Maybe.

Other leased BMWs in the state?  No one keeps a record, but I would imagine....if you counted mayors, and state agencies....there's probably a minimum of 200.  Would the state declare all of them null and void?  It'd be fairly crazy but possible.

This peeving other non-AfD players?  Some BSW folks....FDP folks, have openly said this is a stupid mess to start up.  If you had 100,000 Germans get hyped-up negative and anti-BMW....you might create a economic problem with serious consequences.  

For reference, there are only three limo models in Germany: BMW 7 Series (incl. i7), Mercedes-Benz S-Class, and Audi A8.  

Could Saxony-Anhalt start a trend where all state vehicles are non-German (Toyota, Kai, etc)?  Well....it's best not to bring up this idea.