Three Thoughts Over This Jason Arday-Cambridge Scandal

 It's amazing how fast this developed....with him resigning, and the vast majority of Brits laughing over the saga, and spiral.

First....one of the biggest lies..Arday says he ran 600 miles in 6 days....with this claim revised to say later....it was 12 days with rest.  Oddly, while talking about this....no newspaper/journalist went to facts to identify what races or when.  

Second, you can find various lectures on-line via YouTube, and watch segments.  Having now watched two of these....it's just a lot of BS thrown around and nothing of value in the lecture.

Third, the university has a problem to clean up.  Any student who was critized by Arday, and given a lesser grade....has earned a right to a review.  Basically tossing the grade out, and giving the kid a plussed-up grade (faked-up)?  Yeah....that's about the only path to resolve things.

9 August 2026: Germany: 4 Stories

 1.  Bahn (railway) 'bosses' shocked....Minister of Transportation for Germany....wants to link salaries/bonuses to being on schedule (on-time).

If you use the current 'number'.....it's around 60-percent of trains on-schedule.  

Forcing them to run....even under marginal safety conditions?  I'd suggest this as the outcome, and it'd quickly fall apart.

2.  Relaxation of the Sunday truck ban....getting a lot of attention.  The rule for a number of years....from Saturday evening to Sunday evening....trucks were sent to parking lots and not allowed on German autobahns.  So the drought has affected water-traffic to such a degree...that trucks will have to run on Sundays.

My advice....once this starts up....on a Sunday....you really don't want to travel on autobahns much (stau-woes).

3.  New ARD (pubic TV) polling.

AfD at 28 percent.....CDU at 21 percent.

Green Party at 15 percent, with the SPD around 12 percent.  FDP at 4 percent.  Linke Party at 11 percent.  Remainder spread out among lesser parties.

Gain?  One point for AfD.  

Two observations.....first, ARD is usually highly accurate (not faked-up).  Second, the CDU-CSU lost a point.  If you ever see the CDU-CSU drop down to around 19-percent....there will be intense pressure for Merz to step down/leave.

4.  The German Constitutional Court is giving a strong hint....upon conclusion of any election...if there is a suggestion of bogus-results/crappy control....the Bundestag needs a 'tool' to quickly assemble the data....recognize the problem, and come to a conclusion. 

How Does A German End Up In A 'Mental-Hold' Situation (Asylum)

 Well...in Germany, involuntary psychiatric commitment, usually called as a "mental hold" or compulsory hospitalization, starts up when an individual's mental health is deemed to impair their sanity to the point of posing a danger to themselves or others, or in certain criminal contexts. 

Note....there IS NOT a single national mental health law but instead involves a combination of federal codes and state-specific regulations (remember 16 states).

So in effect....you could be signed off to a clinic in one state for obvious issues....but if  you were in Hamburg, or Bavaria....you might not be dragged off.

I'll add here.....there's always a judge involved, and some court appointed person to report on things.....and to protect your civil rights.

The three key points?  You have to show some threat/danger to self or others.  You probably will show some or total capacity to control yourself, or consent to things.  Finally, there might be some criminal element....influenced by a mental disorder, where preventive detention may make sense.

Exiting?  There will always be a scripted 'end' where you can test your way out, or have a judge review your success of resolving your issue.  

I looked up the  numbers....out of 84-M folks....around 1-milllion are in some  'program' (some voluntary....some ordered). Based on 2023 numbers.....around 25-percent of the million are NON-volunteers....meaning the judge restricted them to a program (for a short or long period of time). 

Based on the way they count issues.....most are there for a week or two....to stabilize themselves....because nationally, there are only 65,000 beds dedicated to such units. 

The way to look at this....you get doped-up and act crazy....police come and you end up in a holding-cell....where the judge has you sent to a 10-day mental clinic....where some doctor will note you were just temporarily crazy...signs the papers, and out you go by the 10th day. In and out....would be the best way to describe this.

The plus-side of this program?  Well....you don't end up in a prison (like in the US) for 4 years...for stupid crap.   The German  method just notes you needed treatment and the threat of being hospitalized....to correct your behavior.   

Q-and-A

 1.  Likely outcome of the Saxony-Anhalt state election in four weeks?

No doubt....AfD will get around 42-percent of the vote....but be unable to form a coalition. 

So....the odd aspect falls into play in late September....the CDU is tasked to form a coalition....with the SPD, Linke, Greens (all lefty parties).  Majority of 'power' fades for CDU, and it becomes a heavily discussed spiral problem.....which Merz can't do much about.

I'll also say....perhaps 3 out of 10 CDU-likely voters....might see this reality prior to the election, and vote more so....for the AfD....giving them the win and no need for a coalition.

2.  Odds of a female now 'winning' the President of Germany vote?

I'd give it 60-percent chance presently....just to say 'some' female will get SPD, Green and Linke Party 'nod'.  The CDU (with AfD votes) could go a different path.

3.  All this hyped-up threat by drones?

The general feeling is that sooner or later....some drone will 'attack' a power-plant, or passenger jet taking off.  

Saying it's a Russian problem?  I don't see any evidence that it's clearly them....could just as well be some Ukrainian private group with an agenda to draw Germany deeper into a mess.  

4.  This Abdul-character from Berlin.....why was this Islamist at large, even though he was considered extremely dangerous? 

NO one can answer this, and the longer it lingers....the more crappy the mess appears.

5.  New virus worry?

Well....there's a virus previously unknown in Germany....now causing fever, diarrhea, and reduced milk production in cattle in the state of Baden-Württemberg (SW). Mosquito-transmission?  Yeah.

Currently, there is no known risk to humans.....or at least the claim is this.

6.  Thousands of violations of the 12 O'clock gas station rule?

Around 2 months ago....a new rule was made for German gas stations.....you set the standard price for fuel at noon....unable to increase, but you can decrease.  

Well....various stations 'broke' the rule.....raising the price at odd times.  Gov't says they want to clearly go after folks.....but the manpower and amount of detective work...is simply not there.

Kinda funny....you make more rules, but it doesn't work.

8 Aug 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

 1.  Two unidentified drones were seen flying over a Bundeswehr military base in Mechernich, Germany around Thursday even (10 PM).

No ID.....just hyped the Germans up another notch.

2.  US intel 'says' that the explosives found on the drone in Halle....were Russian-type.  Enough to say positively a Russian operation?  No.  Various groups could acquire the explosives.

3.  German-made convertibles going extinct?  Well....back in 2008....around 4.2-percent of all cars produced....from Germany...were convertibles.  Today?  It's around 1.2-percent.  I noted this week....at this point in production....NO German company has any model that they are producing.

4.  Ceuta crisis in Morocco.  Crazy theory being suggested by a ARD (public TV) journalist....that the US (Trump), with the King of Morocco, and Israel's Netanyahu....have cooked up this conspiracy to hurt Spain

On my BS-meter?  I give it a '7'.  What hurts this idea?  Well....there are probably 200 different Trump catastrophic events going on....if you start counting what ARD or ZDF produces.

5.  UEFA (the European authority over soccer)....paid some kind of hush-money to FIFA's boss's (Infantino) mistress.  This apparently goes back....ten to fifteen years ago.  

6.  Rhine River at a record low level....so barge traffic is halted to a great degree.  Trucking is now increasing, and several German states have halted the Sunday ban on truckers.  Temp-deal....seen by most folks.

The Barest of a Bluff?

  I read a piece yesterday....via the Brit Telegraph.

The blunt story?  Vladimir Putin could perhaps attack a NATO country within weeks to test the alliance, US intelligence has warned.

So this forecast centers on a 'test'....either a cyber attack or a land incursion....over the next two years.  Who dug up the forecast?  WSJ.

On my BS-meter (1-to-10)....it's a rock-solid '9'.

Putin having the weapons/hardware inventory to conduct such an operation?  Zero.  If you gave Putin II (the guy standing there in 2046)....maybe a 50-50 situation.  But today?  They lack manpower and hardware.

Who gave the WSJ this BS?  I'm guessing some outsider group to the Pentagon....or some pro-Ukraine group in DC.

How German ZDF Public TV Came To Exist

 I'll tell the story like a bedtime story.

Once upon a time....WW II ended....some Germans gathered up in spring 1949, and wrote the Basic Law (the Constitution). Contained was article 5....which listed TV as a part of German rights.  

German TV was not to be covered by gov't funding....it was a fee (tax) that households would pay...covering the cost.

It was heavily interpreted from the start....TV was supposed to provide culture, education, news, and entertainment (to a lesser degree).  

The network created?  ARD...Channel 1...was to be based out of Hamburg.

Who would monitor the network?  Well...a group of sixty-odd folks....from all over the country, and marginally controlled by the gov't.  It's safe to say....by such a large group....they could really change or guide the network.

So in this fairytale....about a dozen years go by and there's woes in fairytale land. The conservative folks (CDU/CSU) have figured out that basing ARD out of Hamburg...means a left-leaning group mostly runs ARD public forum shows, and the nightly news.  

So the CDU/CSU cooked up this plan in the early 1960s....they'd create a 2nd network....basing it out of Mainz, and it'd have a right-leaning group of journalists. Funding poured in....buildings were acquired, and almost immediately. the lawyers for ARD stepped up....saying the Basic Law prevented a 2nd network.  The court stepped up and agreed....the Basic Law says only one TV empire can exist.

Rather than collapse Channel 2 (the obvious answer)....ARD took control, and 'guided' them.

Instead of having one single left-leaning network....over a period of ten to twenty years...Channel 2 (ZDF) also leaned left.

As RTL arrived in 1984....ARD went back to the court and tried to halt them....saying ONLY one single network could operate in Germany.  Commercial TV was supposed to be prevented.

The court eventually said 'no'.....nothing prevented commercial TV.

The general perception today? If you polled most 18-to-40 year old folks....more than half would say they marginally watch ARD or ZDF....that the monthly tax-fee (around 18 Euro) should be cut, and that some major reform is needed.

Oddly, if the gov't had screwed up in the early 60s....adding ZDF....you'd only have ARD today to mess with.

As for some ending to the fairytale?  Well...no, it just continues on.

Conclusion of Summer?

 This AM....German weather gave a odd 'ending' to the 2026 heat-wave 'mess'.

So prepare....in approximately 10 days (figure between the 16th and 20th of August)....the heat (literally anything above 30 C / 86 F) officially ends.

What remains for the next 30 days after that?  Unseasonable low temperatures (figure 22 C or less for the most part), a fair amount of rain, and a fair amount of cloud cover.  If you had solar panels....it's not a happy feeling.

The 2026 heat-wave?  Well....I'd say....all total....there were about 20 total days (figuring this coming Sunday/Monday to hit 34 C) for the year being ultra HOT.  Basically four waves....the worst being ten days straight of heat.

Folks hyped-up to buy AC units?  News folks claim that AC technicians have a ton of work lined up, and will be busy through October installing new units.

The drought side?  Yeah....it's probably the most intense drought period across all of Germany....in thirty-odd years.  In my valley....the last real massive rain....was the end of March.  Since late April....there's been around four light rainfalls....never really amounting to much.  The grass?  Absolutely dead.