Thursday, September 10, 2026

10 Sep 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

 1.  Group of CDU political folks (nat'l level) are taking a opposition point to Merz....on tax-chatter.  They are saying the new discussed plastic-tax is a no-go.  Also discussed....the new crypto-currency tax.  And the sugar tax.

These taxes mostly pushed by SPD Party to Merz?  Yeah.  Without full support of the CDU....these may not go into effect.

2.  Meerbusch (NW Germany, near Dusseldorf).....guy approaches police waving a knife around.  After several orders to drop it....they fire....killing the guy.

3.  11 AM today....national siren/alarm day....test throughout Germany occurs.

4.  BSW Party accepts fully....in Saxony-Anhalt....coalition talks with AfD Party.  

5.  SPD Party top candidate for the Berlin-City state-election coming up....raided by the police.  Some of political donation accusation.  Timing of this...makes one think it was a set-up.  

6.  This sub-station saboteur guy (arrested by the police)....was not employed (long-term) and apparently 'survived' off pocket-money that his mother gave him. 

Wednesday, September 9, 2026

Ukraine Story

German authorities came out today (Wed)....to say 'yes, we will help Ukraine identify young Ukrainian men in Germany....to return 'home' and fight for the fatherland'.

Basically....these are young men (20s, 30s and probably 40s)...who have a legit ID card (green-card) and probably getting some German gov't aid.

What are the numbers?  German data from 31 October 2025 (including pre-war residents), broken down as roughly 87,000 aged 18–24, 168,000 aged 25–45, and 73,000 aged 46–60.

Guys willing to return?  No.  I would imagine zero nature.

Guys in Germany who are not noted by the Germans?  No one says much....but I might go and suggest a minimum of 10,000 quietly residing.

The Problem With Consequences

 I worked in a Air Force office/shop at the end of my career....where the boss (a Major) was a risk-taker.  It was obvious from day one, and you could pretty much guarantee....if a situation came up requiring decision-making....there was a brief moment of concern and a marginal 'minute' pondering consequences....then he'd make the bold move.  After a while (a long while)....I got used to it, and started think and react like he did. 

What he gave me in terms of perceiving risks and consequences....was this idea that there had to be a 'gain' worth the risk taken.

I came later to the idea that the majority of people simply aren't capable of viewing consequences in their actions, or admitting they committed serious errors in their actions. 

When the 'revolutions' started up in the Middle East and refugees started to look for exit/entry signs....the Germans never got into the consequences mindset.  Even if you get to 2016....3 years into the migration issues....admitting the consequences was not possible.  

AfD being a consequence?  You could make that case today.  The people who vote for AfD?  Well....they used to be CDU-voters, SPD-voters, Linke-voters, FDP-voters, and even Green-voters.  

This is one of the odd things that public TV (ARD/ZDF) never really discuss much.

The layer of issues surrounding crime, assaults, and negative public safety numbers?  You could make the case that it's really not that bad.  Course, you'd be comparing it mostly against data existing around 2010/2012..not the 1990s or 1980s.

The 250,000 on the deportation list?  Yeah, that's a consequence.  

The PISA study on German educational numbers for 2025....looking crappy?  Yeah, that's a consequence.

Blaming someone or some party?  I don't think it's really possible at this point.  It achieves nothing.

Having a open and fair discussion over consequences?  I don't think that's really possible now.  You'd have to admit things, and agree to serious resolutions.  

Odd problem to have.

If Chancellor Merz Resigned Tomorrow? (What The Law Says)

 First, he'd give a letter to President Steinmeier, and he'd (Steinmeier) ask Merz to stay as a 'temp'.  He can decline this, and Steinmeier would then ask the SPD back-up Chancellor (Lars Klingbeil) to assume the job temporarily.

We move to step two then.

A new Chancellor must then be elected by the Bundestag under Article 63. The process has up to three rounds: The President proposes a candidate (one assumes a CDU-guy/gal), but he might shock folks by picking a non-party person. That person needs an absolute majority of all 630 Bundestag members (316 votes).

If that fails, the Bundestag has 14 days to elect someone with an absolute majority on its own.....meaning no suggestion by the President works.

If that also fails, a third ballot is held. A relative majority (most votes) is then enough. The President then decides whether to appoint that person (even if it produces a minority government) or dissolve the Bundestag and call snap elections.

Minority gov't?  It'd dampen 2027 state elections, and likely hurt both the CDU-CSU Party and the SPD Party.

Getting a SPD Chancellor out of this?  I'd give it better than 50-percent odds. Top guy?  Boris Pistorius (Defense Minister currently).  

Helpful for the AfD brand?  Some folks might argue that having Merz resign...is very helpful for the AfD brand.  

Steinmeier gone in January 2027?  Well....term ends, and there's folks planning nominees.....probably to have a Bundestag 'vote' by November.  CDU might be hoping that they get their person put into place, and a Merz-exit would have better conditions.  Could this secret CDU 'winner' put their own name up for the Chancellor job?  The law has conditions....to prevent that.

Any of this scenario being discussed currently...in the open?  Oddly....no.

Analysis of AfD 'Platform'

 Two days ago....AfD published a list of promises....to sell their brand nationally.  My humble view after each:

- Term limit for professional politicians. They will not be able to live off the State for more than eight years.

Getting all of the parties to agree to this...near zero.  If you asked working-class Germans....they might prioritize this...but it won't be a top-ten thing.

- Europe of sovereign states, or an exit if that is not possible.

Exiting the EU?  There might be 30-to-35 percent of people who will sit and listen to the idea...maybe bulk of them agreeing in some ways.  I remember the era prior to the 1990s, and will say....there's various positive things that the EU delivered.  

- End of the euro as a common currency.

Around a decade ago....you could ask and probably 10-percent of Germans felt the DM was a better deal than the Euro.  Today?  I'm not sure how people would see the idea.

- Total border control.

Requires a massive manpower situation....probably over 25,000 hirees.  Police have openly said....they would do the job on a temp-basis (like 6 to 12 months) but if it were permanent....you need a hired-up crew.  Budget for this?  Doesn't exist.

Priority among Germans?  Likely two-thirds of people support this idea.

- Asylum processed outside the EU.

Curious wording....you could not apply for asylum....unless you did it beyond the EU 'borders'.  You'd have to have a workable deportation program....something marginally working at present.  Sounds good on paper until you push for fixing deporation.

- Remigration of criminals and people without residence rights.

Public opinion....I believe 75-percent of Germans support the idea. 

- Tax cuts.

First, you'd have to have budget cuts.....where?

- Energy: nuclear energy, coal, repairs to Nord Stream, no more CO₂ tax, no more ban on combustion engines.

Seen popular in different ways by the public.  Fixing N-S....probably occurs....ONLY after the war ends.  As for nuke energy?  It's hyped as 'evil'....so you'd have to resolve this belief.  The ban on combustion engines?  It's killing the auto-industry.

I should mention here....Germany already has one of the highest grid cost rates of any EU country...presently.

- Pro-nationalist policy.

Might be supported by 40-percent of the pubic.  Half of the media would utter 'nazi' when discussed.

- Promotion of German culture, protection of the German language

Probably in conflict with one-third of German voters.  

- Expulsion of Muslims who reject the German legal system. No to sharia courts

If you explain Sharia....I doubt that more than 10-percent of Germans support some creation.  If you asked Syrian-Germans....more than half probably would say they'd really rather not have such a 'problem' existing.  

- Reinforcement of the police

Merkel hired 10,000 new state/federal police....right before Covid.  My question....that effort was difficult because of quality required for recruits.....where would you find another 10,000 to 15,000 additional folks for the job.  I agree....it's needed.

- Zero tolerance for foreign criminals and mafias.

I'd say they are already ten years too late.  Public would support this.  

New Poll: National Politics in Germany

I paused over this last night:

 AfD: 29 percent 

CDU/CSU: 19.5 percent (down a point)

Greens: 13.5 percent 

SPD: 12.5 percent (up a half-point)

Left Party: 10.5 percent

FDP: 4.5 percent

BSW: 4 percent (up a half-point)

It's not something that you can see as positive for the Merz 'crew'.  On the lefty-side?  Roughly 40-percent of the voting public currently....but highly divided.  (Comes from Focus)

Does German Public TV Deliver Child-Like News?

Well....yeah.

 ARD's takes it's nightly 8 PM news.."Tagesschau".....then translates it into "in einfacher Sprache" (basically 3rd-to-6th grade-level simple language).  

So you can imagine....someone 'drafted'/selected from the team....who has the 15-minute news piece, and spending probably two to three hours....working the wording/graphics around...to give to a 'new' resident of Germany....in simple language.

Yes...simple basic sentences....no fancy words.  The bars/graphs....explained like you were talking to a kid.  Then giving a kid-like description of details.

Could you download the actual word-text from the Tagesschau in your home-language, and get a 4-star translation (without the child-like narrative)?  Yeah.

Personally....I wish they'd do this with the German crime-show dramas, and have someone whittle the 90-minute crime-drama to 20 sentences....so the confusion was less over-all.

Why Putin Eyeballs Germany As A Target?

 Yesterday....Germany's Minister of Defense approved a new military aid package for Ukraine.  Includes PAC-2 Patriot intercepts (from their stock), AIM-9 missiles, and tens of thousands of long-range artillery shells.

Putin notes the transfers and probably just shakes his head...all of these German 'stockpiles' are absolutely a target in his mind.