Rest of the Story From January

 I talked about this in mid-January....29-year-old Eritrean guy stabbed two MediaMarkt employees in Ulm with a knife.  One of the two fairly serious wound.  Knife guy ran....threatened police officers with the blade....ended up being shot (alive).

So, the rest of the story from this AM.

Knife-guy arrived in Germany in 2017 as a “refugee”.

Apparently.....he had stabbed someone else back in Neu-Ulm in 2020.  For this....he got 3.5 years in prison plus additional sentences for drugs. Left in  Dec 2025.

Here's the thing....his status was initially revoked in 2023 and he had an obligation to leave Germany since 2024....HOWEVER....Eritrea won't take the guy back.  So Germany is left with no solution.

Current game?  Assess his mental situation...maybe this time...sign off that he's permanently crazy.  Sign off that he's OK, and send off to a court situation....probably getting another 3.5 to 5 years of jail.

The problem is.....each month that passes, you have another assault like this which occurs, and hypes up the public to support the AfD....because the other folks (CDU, Greens, SPD) can't seem to make the street safe (the perception).  

Blunt truth?  Probably 98-percent of 'guests' are safe, and trying to fit into German society.  Reaching some level of figuring out the 2-percent and what to do with them?  That's the tricky part of the problem, and no one really wants to be the 'Einstein' to create a fix.

Personally, if I were the a 3rd-world country with nutcases....yeah, I'd do everything possible to get them to be someone else's 'problem'. Germany just hasn't realized that yet.

Footnote:  Going back to 2013....when I got my visa....I thought the Germans would test me for mental stability.  Well....no....they seemed to be  automatically accepting me....even if I were a nutcase.

Ten Ways That You Might Be Viewing Propaganda

First, early on within the news piece....it seems very emotionally-driven....with fear, anger or some nationalist appeal. Balance of facts....seems to be lacking.

Second,  there's just one single side of the story discussed.

Third, at some point....facts/sources....seem vague, anonymous, or missing.

Fourth....Repetitive catchphrases throughout the piece....should be a 'hint'.

Fifth, if something seems demonized (bad crap)....without addressing arguments, that's another 'hint'.

Sixth....some data gets used, but it seems to be cherry-picked....that's a 'hint'.

Seventh....if it all seems driven as 'black-and-white'......that's a 'hint'.

Eighth....'experts' are introduced, but you never know their background.

Ninth....there's something odd....a call-to-action done by the end.  That's a 'hint'.

Finally...if they use dramatic music, or somewhat biased visuals....it's propaganda.

(I'll just say....about once a day now, I catch myself looking at a propaganda piece.)

Three Q-and-A's

 1. Isn't it odd that the SPD Party selected age 14 and under to ban from social media.....but added age 14 to 16 in a approved use of social media?

Look....several German states allow age 16 for state/EU voting (Baden-Württemberg, Berlin, Brandenburg, Bremen, Hamburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and Schleswig-Holstein).  In a normal federal election....you have to be 18.  

They need an introduction phase/'help'...so it would make sense to allow social media action around age 14/15....to get them thrilled on politics.

Oddly....the CDU Party wants age 16 as the ban-age.

2. Chancellor actually said that Rubio was 'Trump-in-a-friendlier-package'?

Yeah....spoken yesterday.  I would point out from the MSC over the weekend....Rubio got a standing ovation from the crowd.

3. With 41 new data-centers planned within Germany....by 2030....won't there be this major electrical 'need' required?

This is a rather odd discussion.  2,845 MW of grid-added capacity by 2029 is mentioned.

So....is there some secret nuke-energy requirement likely to come up?  You would think that.

Fire Story

So I'll try to tell this story in a simple way.

In the past week....up around Schwaigern (near Heilbronn)....there was this E-car...that caught on fire.  Neither the police or fire-department have a clear theory on this yet.

But as the fire 'raged'....next to it was a RV....which happened to have LP gas  containers.....where things got hot enough.....that they exploded. The RV is mostly 'toast'.  

Then....several cars were closed enough....that they caught on fire.

Then a couple of residential buildings.....caught on fire.

Yeah, I guess the insurance guys will have a half-day of work to figure some end-game check.

17 Feb 2026: Germany: 8 Extra Stories

 1.  My German wife is dedicated to particular brands.  For appliances....she's a Miele-freak.  

Miele products? Well...they are German-made (still today)....tend to last ten-plus years without issue, and generally are 30-percent more than the competition.

Yesterday I noted....2027 is the last year that Miele will make a washer inside of Germany.  All of the washer production....then goes to Poland. Reasoning?  They avoid this discussion, but it's mostly labor costs in Germany.

2. New poll by IPSOS.....AfD nationally at 26-percent. CDU-CSU at 23-percent.

SPD limping along at 15-percent. Greens at 13-percent, and Linke at 12-percent.

Were elections held today....AfD would win but be unable to form  a coalition.  The bad news?  CDU-CSU would have to form with both the Greens and SPD.  Were the FDP to get over the hump with 5-percent....it's possible that five parties required to get a coalition.

3.  Mövenpick-Hotel in Frankfurt...the big operation next to the expo-halls?  Bankrupt.

Was a big deal in the years when they had several big trade shows in Frankfurt....less so since Covid.

Built in 2006....it offered a 4-star situation and was one of the big hotels in the city to stay.  

4.  German Federal Police note more than 980 knife attacks and 2,200 sexual offenses were recorded on railway stations and trains for 2025.

5. Opel came up in the past week.....saying they are 'still' committed to making diesel cars....after throwing around  20 billion Euro at E-car technology.

If you came up to a thousand German diesel car owners and asked where their 'path' lays....I suspect 99-percent will say still with diesel technology.

6. Some note over the natural gas reserves for Germany, for this AM (Tuesday)....23.1-percent remaining.

For southern one-third of Germany....temp's for next 10 days will be mostly around  0 to 5-plus C (daytime temps).

At the current pace....somewhere around 1 March....I might predict a national crisis period (probably as they reach 15-percent remaining).

Footnote....as each LNG ship arrives and 'delivers'.....it's basically adding 1-percent of LNG to the reserves.   So you would need twenty deliveries over a month to really bring the worry-level down. 

7.  WELT had an odd piece....talking over upcoming Ramadan....that young Islamic folks seem to be gearing up to act 'religious-police'....enforcing the 'rules'.

It's hard to say....how many Muslims in Germany are totally obedient about Ramadan rules.  Back in my German language days....I posed the question to a Syrian guy, who observed....most (say over 50-percent) cheated in some fashion...usually having a hidden water bottle.  As he noted....the obedient folks usually got themselves to a serious dehydration point (near passing out).

8. INSA poll....German public is even MORE dissatisfied with Merz, than they were with Scholz.  

It is about a year into the Merz-era, and the 'wind' expected a year ago....the economy would finally settle, and show recovery.  Well....it hasn't done so. But here's the thing....there's literally no one from the Greens or SPD who can project with confidence....a better economic period. And no....same deal with AfD.

There is no replacement scenario to play with.

Five Negative Indicators Of The German Economy

 I  probably spend around 15 hours a week....looking at business news in general....from across the globe (more so the US, and to some degee...German trends).  So....five things I've noted here early in 2026:

1. There is a rising German government deficit.  The general government balance is predicted to get worse....around minus-4-percent of the GDP in 2026.  

Why?  Well...fiscal policies are noted, and increased spending.  If you looked for historical comparisons....it's something you haven't seen in 40-plus years.

2.  The gov't lowered it's GDP growth forecast.  The growth for 2026?  Around .8-percent.....which is a bit lower than 2025 estimates.  Why?  Mostly due to external trade pressures.

3. There are rising corporate insolvencies going on....increasing by roughly 8-percent in late 2025, and still trending into 2026.

4. There is a noticeable subdued consumer confidence brewing. German consumer sentiment is in a decline....concerns over inflation, job security, and tax burdens, leading to higher savings rates and restrained spending are noted by the public.

5. Finally,  I read through a piece from the Ifo Business Climate Index...the sector is reflecting pessimism about the first half of 2026....with companies citing uncertainty and weak expectations.

To be honest, I would question if Germany has ever emerged out of the Covid-damage era.

Whats The Whole Burgergeld (Welfare) Landscape In Germany?

Using numbers from mid-2025....5,522,252 recipients in Germany get welfare payments....with around 2,885,869 German citizens receiving Bürgergeld.

The remainder (roughly half of the 5.5-M)?  Non-German....most of which Ukrainian in nature. 

17 Feb 2026: Germany: 12 Stories

1. German nat'l police said that the current going price to get an Iranian to Germany via the human trafficking groups....is around 15,000 Euro.

2.  Focus had a piece discussing the emergency 'stash' you need to have.....to survive a 14-day period of 'outage' here in Germany.  

3.   This Hamburg Persian-restaurant attack from last week (I essayed already).....the cops have finally laid out the whole story with the dead guy.

He was the owner of a fairly popular restaurant...financially doing well. In his 'clan'...he was the senior member of the family.  Some guy (we are left guessing the ethnic status)...had approached the restaurant-owner for permission to marry within the clan (appropriate for Persians).  He'd already said 'NO'....refusing to bless the marriage.  The young guy returned, with a knife.....killing the older guy.

Cops still searching for the young guy.

4.  CDU-CSU-SPD coalition in discussions to find more tax revenue.  Discussion?  Raising VAT from 19-percent....to 21-percent. Personally, it won't shock me if the VAT escalates by 2035 to 25-percent.

5.  Some  discussions starting up.....retirement program has funding gaps.  To resolve this....gov't talking about raising retirement age to 70. You can line up a hundred Germans who are age 50, and 90-percent will tell you that this idea won't work. 

6.  Natural gas reserves?  From yesterday, I read the reserves have hit 24-percent  left. 

Supposed to be a Bundestag Q-and-A today....this question will come up.  Some worries about what happens at 20-percent. 

Journalists noted that a major delivery of LNG was supposed to occur this week....but required a ice-breaker to get the tanker into the port. The ice-breaker apparently had maintenance issues, and the delivery is stalled.  

Temps?  Well...for remainder of Feb (for central Germany).....mostly 5 to 10 C (day-time temp) is predicted.

 7.  After the big Bahn (railway) security meeting of last Friday....one change is  approved....fewer ticket audits on trains. If you don't confront the dangerous folks....nothing bad will happen.  Reaction by Germans....fairly critical of the idea.

8. Netherlands State Secretary that was supposed to be “responsible” for the unrealized gains tax business....apparently is stepping  down.  She had made up her resume/CV....she only finished middle school. Nothing beyond that.

9.  Someone on German social media wrote up a commentary to describe the CDU-SPD relationship....if they were a business-operation:

If SPD and CDU politicians were running a company:

- Everything free for new customers.

- Existing customers pay triple the price.

- Procurement pays double what is actually demanded.

- Only employees without any specialist knowledge are hired.

- Profits are invested to make processes as inefficient as possible.

10.  CDU and SPD moving toward banning under-age-14 social media participation.  From age 14 to 16....you'd only get participation if parents gave 'permission'.

To make this work....the digital wallet that the EU is developing would fall into  play.  Most experts suggest 2027 is the delivery-point for this 'wallet'.

By the wording...age verification would be mandated for everyone....meaning everyone would be forced to have a 'wallet'.

I pondered upon this.  If you were a tourist family visiting Germany for a week....you'd have to participate in the 'wallet' gimmick. Not just as a kid...but as a adult  as well.  I don't see this selling 'well'.

But why limit this to  only social media....the public library should also limit books based on age as well. You could  also do the age business at grocery stores...limiting high-sugar items to kids, or even limit them at fast-food restaurants.

I see lots of ways to regulate life even more.

11. I noted a German talking over his old Mercedes 'limo' and it's reserve tank capacity....with the warning 'note' it'd display, when hitting reserve-status...having 210 km still left in the tank.

For a brief year....I owned a 1969 Mercedes 'tank' (it felt like a tank), and it had a 78 liter tank.

12.  ZDF (public TV, Channel 2) has a problem.  They did a news piece over the weekend....critical of Trump/ICE operations.  The US clip used?  AI-created.

They had words to fill narrative....with the clip to draw dramatics....but it was faked-up.  Fair amount of public criticism.