Sunday, April 12, 2026

Travel Commentary

 German passenger trains used to be 'classic' travel situations.

You'd board....on time...leave on time, and sit in a respectful cabin (6 seats).

The windows opened (if you needed fresh air).  Yeah, there was no  AC  unit.

A guy would roll a cart around later...selling you a beer, wine or Coke.

Sound-proofed?  Well...moderately.

Somewhere in the 1990s....the ultra-modern crap came, and 'classic' got dumped.

The biggest whine?  Mostly over the cabin being 'cornered' by older ladies who in December...had the heat up around 32C in the cabin. 

How Would A Excess Profits Tax Work?

 Once established....you'd  have a agency/group  to monitor the companies involved, and spend hours reaching a conclusion that something-is-not-right-but-you-can't-say-what.

So after 2,000 man-hours of audits....you conclude they must be hiding data, and there's just too much profit.  You get 'Timmy' (your numbers guys) to invent a maximum profit level....then start taxing.

The company reviews your action, and immediately lessens production or service.  It might be one-percent....maybe three-percent....maybe even ten-percent.

'Timmy' tells you a month later....the numbers changed.  What 'Timmy' is missing...is that you shifted the product to a slower schedule, or that you moved some production outside of the country.

A new problem is developed (oddly)....there's a shortage of X-product.  

A new agency/focus is started....to figure out why shortages now exist.  They hire a 'Timmy-2'.  His numbers reflect a problem where you need more incentive (cash-flow/profit).

Timmy-1 and Timmy-2 fight over the analysis.

Eventually....a new agency is formed....there seems to be too much regulation.  They hire a Timmy-3  to show the numbers.

Someone at this point figures out....the whole excess profits tax has only one purpose....hiring more people to fix a non-existent problem.

Four German Political Realities

 1.  If you had an election today....from the left spectrum (SPD, Greens, Linke, BSW)...you'd have a total of 39-percent of the vote (April poll).  

Right spectrum.....56-percent (CDU, CSU, FDP, AfD).

But to form a coalition (avoiding AfD)....you have to partner up with some left-group, and dilute the 'win'.

2.  As much as CDU-CSU claims to be conservative in nature....probably 20-percent are CINO (conservative in name only).  

3.   A topic that few politicians or journalists discuss?  As of the end of 2025, the combined debt of German municipalities and municipal associations....adds up to around €196 billion.

They'd  like for the federal gov't to find some 'gift' fund and help cure this 'ill'.

4.  If things did spiral into a collapse of the coalition....a new election would merely reshuffle the current crew into different seats, but basically the same arrangement, and the same ending....a new collapse within two years (my humble belief).

The most you'd gain with a new election is Merz likely being told to exit, and you end up with a new Chancellor pretending to be a CDU conservative and lacking authority skills.   

12 April 2026: Germany: 4 Things

 1. What you can take out of the failed Iran-US peace talks?  Two things.

First, there's two leadership 'waves'....one is the IRCC military-arm....which wants things to stay 'as-is'. The other is the Iran crowd that agrees....'change' has to occur in some form.  The crowd at this Pakistan talks situation....were mostly the 'change' crew, and they were challenged to simply stall.

Second, Iran readily admits....they've got no real data on sea-mines that they laid.  They simply dumped them at random. There's work to be done to find and eradicate the mines.

2. Lufthansa pilots striking Monday/Tuesday.  From  travel  social media  commentary....a fair number of Germans are saying 'enough', and suggesting the airline is on their 'avoid' list.  

I'm scheduled (with the wife) to use Lufthansa...next week (on Sunday).  The wife has already asked me for a plan-B.

3.  From today onwards, the sale of nitrous oxide (laughing gas) to private individuals will be prohibited in Germany.

4.  For years in Berlin....there were public 'displays' of executions at protests/demonstrations....to thrill the crowd, I imagine.  Well....the public display of executions at rallies and demonstrations in Berlin....is now prohibited. If you do a fake execution....cops can now arrest you (at least in Berlin). 

Good Quote

 "The 'CDU Social Wing' has fewer than 10,000 members. Why? Because it—like the SPD—no longer makes policy for workers. Workers want growth, performance, and a functioning state, not a confiscatory state that distributes their money to the wrong people."

--Thorsten Alsleben (Berlin Journalist)

Yeah, it's pretty much a carbon copy of what you see in US politics at present.

A Curious Theatrical 'Show'

 After yesterday's Chancellor meeting with the key finance players of the CDU-CSU and SPD parties....things have gone 'south'.

If you were wondering....yeah, gas/fuel prices are the number topic right now, and the public wants relief (asap).

So there are three 'players' in this 'act'....Chancellor Merz, the Finance Minister (Klingbeil/SPD), and the Economics Minister (Reiche, CDU).

There are three elements to this landscape:

1.  Merz wanted options laid out and gave both Reiche and Klingbeil a couple of day.  What Klingbeil went to...were three elements.  He wanted a profits-tax laid down on oil/gas companies.   Some gov't guy would decide how much profit you were allowed, and then taxes would kick in.   Then Klingbeil started a talk on gas-caps....meaning the gov't would set a price.  Finally...Klingbeil invited in a number of SPD-players (union folks, etc) to talk up his agenda items.

2.  Reiche....said 'what-the-hell' on the Klingbeil's meeting and dumped massively on the tax and cap talk.  This got the SPD membership all disturbed.

3.  Finally, the talent/skills of Merz  for leadership....fell into play where he tried to tell Reiche not to 'dump' so hard on Klingbeil.  What's been known for three decades....Merz lacks authority skills.  

So now...a funny factor starts to enter the scene.

There are elements of the CDU-CSU Party....which you'd  call CINOs (CDU in name  only)....meaning they lean pretty much in the center, or to the left.  They want Reiche 'fired'.

If this firing were to occur....a fair number of CDU conservatives would begin to ask questions and the public support would drop.

Economic downturn? YES, and the polling (coming up this week) will reflect more disenchantment with Merz and the coalition.

Collapse coming?  No one wants a new election....in fear of AfD numbers.

Two state elections coming up in the fall.....Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Saxony-Anhalt....both slated as 'wins' for AfD....if polling stays in line.

The one act that resolve this mess?  Either totally cut, or marginally cut the fuel-energy-CO2 tax (leaving the VAT sales tax in place).  This would cut roughly 30 cents off the cost of fuel.  

The problem?  The SPD uses the revenue made off this tax for a bunch of their 'gifts'  to SPD voters.  

ARD/ZDF (the two public TV players)?  Well...this whole story is marginally covered in  Saturday night's news.  If you did lay it out....Merz, the SPD, and element of the CDU....look pretty crappy. 

Saturday, April 11, 2026

Unhappy German Voters

'Bild am Sontag'....the Sunday newspaper in Germany that a fair number of folks  read....will have results of a survey in tomorrow's edition....done by Insa.

So....70- percent of German eligible voters are dissatisfied with Chancellor Merz's work/accomplishments.

At this point....only 21 percent are satisfied. 

The coalition?   Well...73 percent of voters are dissatisfied.  Yeah, it is a record.

How it splits out politically? 69 percent of SPD voters and 56 percent of CDU/CSU supporters are dissatisfied with the coalition's performance. 

They also show more  disgruntled in the east....than the west.

What this leads onto?  There's no national election until early 2029.  The CDU-CSU and SPD folks are 'safe' at present.....but unless they can show accomplishments...things are in a crappy spiral.

Economics playing a large part of this?   Yeah....Merz  was supposed to be the guy to lead the nation back to prosperity. 

Crisis Chatter

From  an hour ago....in Berlin....near Lake Tegel....around 12:30....black limos pulled up.

Some kind of crisis meeting....CDU-CSU and SPD....gas talks....tax relief....tax burden....political BS.

Anyone's guess how much crap comes out of this.