World Cup Problem

This past week...I've watched two podcasts...one dealing with World Cup soccer chatter, and the other with hotels in World Cup locations...in fear of lacking reservations.

So, the chatter is mostly centered on a lack of fans coming to spend money to watch the games.

Tickets being privately marketed for $2,000....for what would be a 200 Euro pricing situation?  Yeah.

Hotel rooms marketed for $2,500 a night (luxury-plus) for what would be normally $250 a night?  Yeah.

Will there be stadiums filled with 20-percent of fans?  Normally in the first round....with marginal teams in the mix....you would not see filled stadiums.  Those hotels thinking they can market $200 a night hotel rooms for $1,000?  They were obviously stupid.

The key thing will be the quarter-finals....if you have folks  unwilling to pay $1,000 for a $100-ticket.

This Syrian Deportation Dilemma

 The German federal authorities say....there's in the range of 10,000 to 11,000 Syrians on a deportation order....meaning they've done things (probably drug sales, assaults or made no effort to integrate)...to  deserve deportation.

Issue?  Well....they need entry permits to return back to Syria.  In the news this week, it came up that Syria has declined the pass-permit request for this group.

What'll happen?  My best guess is that Syria can be influenced with a cash situation...probably in the region of 50,000 Euro per individual. Yeah....figure 500-million Euro to get some deal going.

Hurting public support with the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition if they have to 'buy' a way out?  Yeah....that's the negative.

This being the only group on deportation orders? No....as of late March (2026)....there's 237,000-plus folks on orders to leave.   If you do the numbers....roughly 20,000 individuals yearly....leave, but there's always a 'incoming' group to keep the numbers inflated to 200k-plus.

22 May 2026: Germany: 7 Things

 1. Russia/Putin:  From this trip to China....if you measure the activities/honors....Putin got about a quarter of the attention that Trump did.  

I would add....some financial data from the Russian gov't has come out....noting that around 11-percent of all bank loans for commercial property are 'life-less' (the ability to cover is zero....so the Russian banks are sitting on dead-weight). 

2.  Kevelaer, Germany (NW):  School project for 14-year old kids in sex-class.....they were given the idea of setting up a red-light-district 'house' and setting up a 'menu' for services.  School director said there was nothing 'crazy' about the project.

3.  This reform idea of setting retirement in Germany at 70 (from 67).....but would not come into play until 2060.

Maybe if we were talking about bank clerks, or bakery folks....it might work. But for about half of all jobs....age 70 won't work.

4.  Tom Kaulitz....one of the Tokyo Hotel band members....has signed some contract to be a soccer-expert for the World Cup games. 

5.  Bus safety inspections.....I noted a story that one out of every five German bus inspections....is a failure.

6.  Plagiarism 'hunter' Stefan Weber now says there are 125 'problems' with the thesis of Thüringen's Minister-President Mario Voigt (CDU).

What will likely happen?  University will have to devote some time, and determine if true, and how bad the situation is.  

7.  German fast-track divorces discussed now.....if there is some element of violence.

Sachsen: INSA Poll

 State election not until 2029 (fall):

AfD leads with 42-percent.

CDU with 21-percent.

SPD with 6-percent.

BSW with 7-percent.

Greens with 6-percent.

Linke with 9-percent.

Long way away from election....but lays out the path of a problem....no one will partner with AfD...leaving the CDU (2nd place) to form a gov't with 4 partners.

21 May 2026: Germany: 7 Things

 1.  Timmy-the-dead-whale-update: Well....during the recovery of the whale's body....the animal experts determined Timmy was a lady-whale.  How they missed this fact during the 'help-and-rescue' business?  No idea.

2.  Marcel Reif, noted German sports journalist....gave a talk yesterday....saying if AfD comes to power....he will exit Germany.

I looked for polling....one came up for 2023....where Germans were asked about leaving if AfD came to power, and number cited was 15-percent.  However...they didn't ask where exactly these folks would go.

My wife (German in nature) will get unhinged on occasion and say some leave-Germany-BS.....but she can never cite where this dream-land would be.

3.  German Interior Ministry has this idea to offer....to get Syrians to return 'home'.  Deal?  8k Euro.

Yeah, lot of criticism popped  up over this amount of money suggested. 

4.  Some discussion popping up over VAT (sales tax) reform.  Suggestion popped up with the idea...ZERO VAT for food items....but the normal VAT would go to 21-percent (from current 19-percent).

5.  Last night....I watched a interview with FOCUS columnist Jan Fleischhauer, on the ARD talk show "Maischberger."

His chief point....that Germany would be better off with a CDU-CSU-Green coalition.

Quote:  "I believe the country would be further along today if there had been a black-green coalition, because the SPD is such a worn-out, broken bunch. As a psychologist, you would say it only shows regressive tendencies. Yes, that's true!"

7. Tempelhof update: For those Americans who might have been stationed in Berlin...during the 'glory-days'....the discussion of re-use is still going on of the airfield.

Present idea?  To build 21,400 new apartments on the former airport grounds, 30 percent of which would be reserved for people with housing vouchers. Runway/ramps....to be left as is...with a light woods to be planted on one side.

Berlin will hold elections in September, and the development of Tempelhof Field will once again be a campaign issue. 

To some degree....I'd  say around 30-to-40 percent of the Berlin public don't want anything done with the field/runway....just making the whole thing a 'park'.  This  group doesn't want it turning into a drug-use-park.  

My Crystal Ball On German Politics Over The Next 3 Years

 Only my speculation....where things are leaning right now.

First, confidence with the public with Chancellor Merz is dwindling....to the degree that within three months...I predict that the CDU Party will meet and lead Merz to hand party-leadership over to Bavaria's CSU 'Boss'....Soder.

At that point...for the remainder of the year....ZDF and ARD (the two public TV networks) will weekly interview and 'hype' Soder....leading to a lesser view of Merz.  Around the end of 2026....the CDU executive committee will talk to Merz and say....for the good of  upcoming state elections in 2027, you need to cite some  reason to leave.    

Then based on CDU-CSU-SPD support....Soder gets the role.

AfD?  By January of 2027....I see them close to 33-percent of public support, and the CDU-CSU folks near 19-percent. 

2027 will be a odd year.....where some marginal improvement occurs for the CDU-CSU (back up to  21-percent, and the SPD slipping to national numbers of 9-percent. The Greens and AfD together....will amount to near 50-percent of the national polling mid-2027.

The top two problems seen by the public?  Economic woes, and the fact that 50-percent of those on German welfare are non-Germans. 

AfD will figure the connection of the two issues, and this will be the top theme for the remainder of 2027.

Soder ends up being respected, but unable to resolve the budget/economic problems.....with the partnership of the SPD being  unable to fix much of anything.

At some point in 2028....early election occurs....with the public frustrated with both the CDU-CSU and the SPD.  AfD?  They are able to 'win' with around 35-percent of the vote, but no  party will partner-up for the coalition.  So you end up with a vastly weakened CDU-CSU, SPD, Greens....mostly leaning left.

Public frustration?  Doomed...the coalition likely lasts two years max.

At some point....after 2030....AfD will be near 50-percent on the win, and the freak-out of journalists, and the left-audience will occur.  The burden on the  welfare system....cleared within one year.  What folks will eventually say....if you work and pay taxes....you aren't a burden on the system, and that the CDU-CSU and SPD always had this 'tool'....never using it. 

20 May 2026: Germany: 7 Things

 1.Timmy-the-whale-update.  Well...Timmy, of course...is dead....floating near the Danish coast.  Denmark says they will recover Timmy, and perform a autoposy.

2.  WELT piece, presently....the German gov't is the only one in a hiring-plus-up....industry and commerce...slacking.

3.  Just a odd PR-gimmick....Chancellor Merz (CDU Party) is on a 'outing' with the SPD Party....trying to drum up public standing for them.

At some point yesterday.....he says: "I don't just stand on the left, I also come from the left."

Fair number of CDU-voters commented on social media.....perhaps there's a reason why they aren't buying in Merz's job performance.

4.  INSA, the polling folks....came up with a poll on the German Chancellor's preference.  One in three Germans wants Alice Weidel (AfD) as chancellor. Only 22-percent want Merz. But the winner?  36-percent of Germans who don't see anyone with the 'talents' for  Chancellor.

To be honest....ever since Covid....there's been a lack of confidence in Chancellors.

5.  New buy-a-E-car program.....you could get up to 6k Euro on a purchase of a E-car.

Based on numbers....fair comment to say that E-car buying has slacked-off/peaked.   Maybe this bonus will help.

6. Heat wave by Monday?  Well...there's weather chatter suggesting 30C (86 F) for my valley.

7. Bavaria state: statistical data got out....from Burgergeld (welfare pay)....55-percent of folks getting it....are non-German.  

It'll be discussed and heavy criticism will come over this.

German Patriot Missiles Going To Turkey?

Well....yeah. Announced yesterday.  The German Defense Ministry announced that the Bundeswehr will send one Patriot missile battery and 150 German soldiers.

Deployment is scheduled to begin at the end of June 2026 and last 90 days.  

The German unit will replace a U.S. Patriot unit currently stationed in Turkey and will operate under NATO’s Integrated Air and Missile Defense situation.