Sunday, June 30, 2019

No-Go Discussion

The topic of No-Go areas came up today with my German wife.  An observation was made that before the 1990s....there simply wasn't a No-Go area in West Germany.  To this, I agree with.  I can remember walking through the heart of Frankfurt in 1978 at 10 PM, and not really fearing much of anything.  I felt that way in Munich and Hamburg in 1984, and forty-odd significant German cities that I visited in that period. 

After 1990, I recall going into Frankfurt on a weekend and being confront by various drug sales folks in front of the Bahnhof, and seeing a couple of heroin-enthusiasts laying there on the street.  In my mind, it was a matter of months before this area would be defined as a No-Go area.  Today?  I'd strongly mark on the map.....a kilometer by a kilometer area near the train station....that you'd best avoid at night. 

Across Europe?  I would take a guess that more than hundred areas easily exist, and it might be closer to 300 areas.

What makes a No-Go area?  It goes to three central features:

1.  A nature by the occupants of a neighborhood to disregard German law.  If the cops are called and try to establish authority....this group (typically always non-Germans), will try to use fear and intimidation to counter the authority.  The cop's reaction?  They call for back-up, and suddenly instead of two cops....you've got got ten to twenty cops. 

This instills frustration with the police....they can't do their job without massive effort, and there's the chance that a gun will be drawn, and someone might be dead. 

2.  Drug-theme.  Most all of the major cities in Germany have a drug sales zone, and the cops have very little that can be achieved.  You can put the blame on the prosecution folks and the judges....they aren't willing to really establish a line of obedience with the law. 

3.  Far-left or far-right political agendas.  There are various areas of Hamburg and Berlin, where the leftists act in some parallel society....at least within their neighborhood. 

Do politicians talk about this situation?  No. It's mostly discussed by the police and their union representatives.  Repairing this problem?  You'd have to start with the judges, and just lay down some Bundestag laws that they can't avoid putting people into jails for extended periods....to make an impression on folk.  But I don't see anything happening over the next decade....it'll just continue to grow. 

The Lampedusa 'Show'

This capture of the German pilot/captain of the rescue vessel Sea Watch-3, the Italian position, and media blitz....has flipped this page two-type story into a front page item, and probably will be public forum 'filler' for at least a week or two. 

Donations have started to pour in for the legal costs coming upon the German female pilot/captain of the vessel, and this is being hyped up via social media. 

The Italians?  The current government leans to the right, and has chosen to impress upon the rescue crowd that Lampedusa is not some front-door for migrants to enter Italy.  The political folks there have also turned to social media, and blasted out the tough stance taken.

So lets stand back and look at basic facts here.

1.  Lampedusa?  It's an island about 8 square miles in size....laying about 100 kilometers off the Sicily coast.  If you look at the map....it's halfway between Tunisia and Sicily.  From the Libyan coast, it's about 220 kilometers.  Six-thousand Italians live on the isle, and it mostly survives off fishing and tourists.  Strangely enough....the beaches there are considered among the best in the world.  Yes, it is awful dry (maybe 12 inches of rain on average each year), and fairly warm (it never goes beyond 70 degrees F).  In fact, in mid summer, you are talking about 95 degrees F being the norm almost every day. 

For several decades, it was an important military site, and NATO ran a base there up until the late 1990s....turning it over to the Italians for use. 

2.  The use of Lampedusa as a entry-door?  This gets into an interesting conversation.  The chief strategy of the smuggling crowd is that they get a bunch of folks hyped up and willing to pay a fantastic amount of money (minimum of $1,000).  For this....you basically get a seat in a raft made for a large crowd (usually 50 to 100).  They 'drag' the raft out to a point, and simply release it. 

No journalists can explain this, without the public grasping the connection between the smugglers and the 'blessed-rescue' crowd.  The smugglers in some fashion tip the rescue folks to the general coordinates of the point where the raft was dropped off, and then the rescue craft shows up in some dramatic fashion to haul the folks out of the raft. 

3.  Law of the Seas.  The law of the rescuing folks....says that you MUST rescue someone in distress on the open seas.  The law also dictates that you will provide basic aid.  Then the law says that you will drop them off at the nearest port.  There is some open discussion going on....especially with the Italians....that Lampedusa is NOT the nearest port upon most all of these rescues, and that either ports in Tunisia or Libya would be the legal drop-off port.  The law in this case....was never written to handle migration, or these type of immigration practices. 

4.  Who funds these rescue vessels?  Well, that gets into a tricky area.  All of them have a basic foundation that labels itself as a rescue foundation....charitable of course.  If you try to view the next layer....who is chiefly donating to the foundations, that's not very obvious. 

5.  How many people die yearly because the raft sinks before the rescue craft gets there?  Well....that's a worthy item to bring up.  But you can't be sure about the statistics that the rescue crowd brings up.  They have had rescue vessels pull up to some point, and there are people in the water....because the raft sunk.  They can only estimate the number each year.  Generally, it's a minimum of a thousand a year.

6.  Why exiting via Libya?  This is never clearly explained but one gets the impression that they don't really monitor ports along the coast, and the smugglers have a 'good' relationship to ensure no one interrupts their business side.

7.  Wouldn't it make more sense to use the tip of Tunisia, and just run a motorboat across to Sicily?  It's about 120 to 140 km across.  Maybe, but there's a fair amount of surveillance by the Italians with their coastal operations, and you'd probably get stopped and end up in some Italian prison.

8.  The use of this confrontation between the rescue folks and the Italians as some media blitz?  There is some sentiment in Italy that they've done their part in the past, and they don't care to continue this open-door policy.  Yes, they kinda got stuck with a bunch of rescued migrants, and there is a cost factor.  Add to it....unemployment is around 9.9-percent, and among the younger crowd....it's at the highest level in a decade.  They really don't need people showing up with marginal skills, no language capability, and likely attached to the country's social program for a minimum of two years. 

9.  The EU sorting this out?  Well, the EU has been sorting for several years, and this really hasn't advanced too far.  What they want is a forced-to-accept policy put upon the 28 member states.  The policy would mean that if Italy has 1,000 migrants in camps....that x-number would be distributed to each member state.  If the migrant doesn't want to immigrate to Poland or Portugal?  That's a funny part of the story as well because if they don't like their 'dumping-ground'.....they'd just pack up and go onto the perfect land....Germany.  The EU has this other problem....in that several member states have said 'no'....they won't accept this type of migration plan because it'll just increase, and you would start to see 10,000 migrants a month on rubber rafts and being dumped off into Europe.

10.  A media blitz?  There's no doubt that public TV news in Germany has a hyped-up topic, and use the video to drag the viewer along to a certain opinion.  Some Germans have not accepted the hype, and simply hit the mute-button when this type of story comes up.  I would take a guess that roughly one-third of German society is not pro-asylum or pro-rescue.  As much as the journalists think they are doing a great positive for the lesser people....they are walking hand-in-hand with the smuggler-crowd. 

11.  How much are the smugglers taking in?  This is a total mystery, and as far as I can tell....no one can say a magic number.  If you figure a 100-person raft, with each person paying a $1000....with the cost of the raft around $3k....you ought to walk away with around $90,000 or more from each trip.  Because its all illegal.....there's zero tax involved. 

12.  Resolving this German captain being held on charges mess?  I will suggest that Chancellor Merkel, upon return to Germany this week from the G20 Conference, will be stuck having to call the Italians and work out some deal.  I think the Italians will demand that the captain be suspended or have her license to pilot lifted for x-amount of time (maybe a year).  The migrants on this vessel will be farmed out to five countries (they've already found five willing players).  Whether the migrants like their new dictated land or not.....is a unknown in this game. 

13.  The use of this whole show to 'hurt' the right-leaning Italian government?  Well....you can't help but notice the way that the story is told...that the Italians are the losers in this situation.  'Saving the world' enthusiasts are clearly getting their message out.  The next official Italian election? 2023.  But this government isn't exactly on firm ground, and some people may think that they can get a bunch of Italians suddenly to be pro-asylum, and flip the results of the next election. 

And so the EU shuffles along, with no clear policy, and everyone mostly divided over migration. 

Saturday, June 29, 2019

Sea Watch Arrest

Kind of a developing story from Lampedusa.

After the German captain from the rescue vessel docked (without permission)....she then allowed forty to fifty of the rescued migrant folks to jump up on the dock.  Italian cops came over and arrested the female captain.

The charges?  Right now, now.  There is talk of some serious charges....not complying with the port authority.  It's probably enough to get three to five years in an Italian prison.

German fury?  The Green Party so far, are the only ones who have gotten hyped up.  It appears that they want Merkel to have a chat with Italy, and request EU action to let the captain go.

What's hurting this whole discussion is that the law of the seas.....says that if you rescue folks....you MUST go to the nearest port.  Well....she was closer to Libya, and by the rule, that's where she should have gone.  Lampedusa, the island?  You can figure it was about a day's ride away from the rescue spot, and ten times the distance allowed by the law of the seas.  So she has broken some strong ethical rules.

The EU getting into this?  I have my doubts that they can find any strong willing nature to push the Italians.  This captain is more or less left to the fate of Merkel getting involved and asking for some special favor. 

German Companies and Poison Gas

It came up this past week, via several German news media sites....that at least three German companies....either knowingly or unknowingly sold the basic ingredients for Syria to make poison gas.

Yes, even with EU regulations in place....it didn't matter, the deal was pursued and achieved.

The BR public TV folks out of Bavaria told part of the story. 

Back in 2014.....Brenntag sold two of the chemicals (diethylamine and isopropanol) to Syria.  Direct sale?  No, via a Swiss group. 

The chief problem?  There are various things that you could use the combo to manufacture, and VX/sarin gas is simply one of the products.

The German office that should have supervised sales, and kinda said something about this?  They either never noticed the sale (it's possible) or they simply looked the other way.  You would think that regular monthly or quarterly audits would come up, with people visiting plants and looking at production numbers.  My guess is that audits were rare, and no one matched up the production level and the sales level. 

Someone going to jail?  About all that the EU folks and German authorities say is that an investigation is underway.  Even if court action does occur, it'd be at least a year into the future.  These folks who were involved?  Well....if I were one of them....I'd go and disappear into Chile or Panama. 

Trade Story

It's basically a six-line story which the German news media has transformed into a two-page story.  Yes, the EU has finally concluded a trade agreement with South America....'FREE TRADE' is branded across the article, and they talk of the 750-million people to 'gain' on this deal.

So, here's the funny part of the story.  It took the EU and the group of South American countries....20 YEARS....to reach the conclusion of this deal.

Yes, 20 years.

So new and vast markets for EU products in South America?  Well....that's the big question.  Some analysts suggest that fruit, meat, drinks, and tobacco are the main export products that will gain for South America, and some sales will increase.  You might see more frequent ship deliveries of fruit into European ports, and there might be some noticeable upswing on Argentine beef.  Going into South America?  The chatter is mostly about drugs, technology items, and vehicles (buses, trains, cars, etc). 

The lack of a TTIP treaty between the US and the EU?  Now you can go back to 2016 and wonder how that EU and US trade agreement fell apart (early Oct 2016).  All the negativity over the TTIP deal....then you have to look at the South America-EU trade deal, and wonder why the same negativity didn't arise now. 

Rescue Story

I essayed a piece yesterday talking over migration and the Italian isle of Lampedusa.  Well, if you go and preview the top ten news stories of Germany today.....there is another new item. 

Sea-Watch-3, a rescue vessel in the Med, has gone out and rescued 50-odd migrants off a rubber raft in the Med.  They wanted to bring the vessel into port at Lampedusa.....which the Italian government bluntly said 'no'.  The Italians don't want to get 'stuck' with the migrants (they've already absorbed a high number).

The captain on the vessel went against the orders of the port authority and basically entered the waters of the port (not landing).  Then she went and declared a health issue with one or two passengers.  The Italian authorities sent out a police vessel to handle the sick/ill situation (picking them up), and then turned around to arrest the captain because she had violated direct orders. 

What'll happen now? I'm guessing some maritime meeting will occur and the certification held by the Sea-Watch 3 captain will be discussed. 

The fifty-odd migrants onboard?  Still there....the Italians refused to let them get off.

The EU in the middle of this?  Well, that's kinda interesting as well.  They found a couple of countries which are willing to take the fifty.  However, this seems to be all in some talk-type session and for Italy to move onto the next step....they want to see something in writing and signed by some EU authority (something that I suspect won't occur). 

All becoming a juvenile game?  Well, there's not much doubt that the smugglers have some connection to members on the rescue vessels and they get some type of advanced notice when rubber rafts are released and where.  It's a rescue, but it's scripted out to such a degree. 

There are thousands sitting in Libya and waiting for the smuggler route to really open up.  Tons of money at stake and all going toward the smuggler empire. 

Thursday, June 27, 2019

Chancellor Merkel: Second Trembling Episode?

Well....yes, this morning at a indoor ceremony.....well ahead of the heat, you could view a 60-second video, and note the Chancellor in another health episode....trembling.

Explanation?  None.  Although a support guy came up shortly after the speech and passed her a glass of water.  She'll pretend it's heat and dehydration. 

My view?  I don't think she wants to discuss the matter in public, and she has a resign date already in her mind (after the three state elections in September/October).  In three weeks, she would normally start the summer vacation period, and basically disappear for three to four weeks.  My bet is that she wants to avoid any discussion, and just make it through the vacation period....showing back up in Berlin around early August. 

If she goes, what happens next?  The SPD could split off and kill the coalition.  My belief is that they really don't want that to happen, and trigger a new election.  So they will agree to the CDU having a replacement situation....but probably list three or four people acceptable within the CDU. 

Merz on that list?  Maybe not....but right now, he's probably the better replacement. 

Would a new Chancellor help right now?  Yes.  Even back in 2017....around 60-percent of the public in a poll suggested that they preferred a new Chancellor. 

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Chat Over Article 18 of the German Constitution

Article 18 of the German Basic Law (the Constitution) is probably the most confusing and most damaging piece of the entire Constitution.  It basically centers on you (the German citizen) giving up or forfeiting your basic rights.

It basically say: "Whoever abuses the freedom of expression, in particular the freedom of the press (paragraph (1) of Article 5), the freedom of teaching (paragraph (3) of Article 5), the freedom of assembly (Article 8), the freedom of association (Article 9), the privacy of correspondence, posts and telecommunications (Article 10), the rights of property (Article 14), or the right of asylum (Article 16a) in order to combat the free democratic basic order shall forfeit these basic rights. This forfeiture and its extent shall be declared by the Federal Constitutional Court."

A judge will basically write up a reason why they believe your basic rights should go away, and unless the higher court of Germany says it's a bad decision.....that's the end of the discussion.

Today, the Chancellor was asked a question in the Bundestag....over this political murder in Kassel, and her take was 'yes, this might be a case where the young guy loses his basic rights'. 

It won't be the Chancellor to request this....it'll be the local prosecutor who prepares paperwork and invokes this.  The odds of it happening?  I might suggest that it's a move that would inflame the situation a bit and they might avoid doing it. 

The most that this accused guy (news reports indicate he has admitted guilt) might get in jail?  Twenty years. 

Tuesday, June 25, 2019

German Evacuation Story

In the last hour, the German news reported that emergency services in Dusseldorf have reacted to a call, and sent various teams to the local airport train station.

What they are saying is that a evacuation is underway with a train that pulled into the station....total failure of the air conditioners onboard the train. 

Heat has been a massive issue today (even in my local area, we were up to 35 C (95 degrees F). 

What the news team is reporting is that German folks were having to be lifted and carried out of the train cars.  Severe heat dehydration is being reported. 

A couple of years ago, down in the south of Germany....they had a similar situation where one or two cars had total failure of AC units in the midst of July heat, and before they'd reached the next station....teenage kids onboard were collapsing from heat exhaustion.  That involved emergency services as well.

Unlike the old railway cars of the 1970s/1980s.....none of the new cars have windows that open (they are absolutely enclosed).  I've been on a couple of Bahn cars in the past three years where the interior temperature was already rising to around 40 C (104 F), and I simply made the decision to exit at the next station. 

What Exactly is Reichsburgerbewegung?

It comes up in the news occasionally now, and might be worth a discussion.

It's a 'movement' involving Reich citizens (Reichsburger).  The group stands under a 'label' which basically says that the German government (since 1947) has not been legit (yeah, fairly out there on the fringe of society).

This is a group of people who forward that the Prussian establishment lingers on (instead of ending).  Yes, the Weimar Republic, in their mind....exists today.

If you go back two years ago....the German Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution basically said that around 12,600 individuals exist in Germany who are signed-up members of the Reichsburger movement. 

A threat?  This is what no one can say with a clear answer. 

The police will be told to react to an eviction notice or to serve papers on someone for some type of law violation, and in the midst of this action.....the guy in question will note that he's a Reichsburger, and that such-and-such law from 1920 or 1928 falls into play.  Well...you'd naturally go and inform the guy, that no.....law such-and-such from 1988 falls into play, and he refuses to participate or play by your law from the modern era.

The fear by the government folks and the news journalists?  A lot of these people are Nazi-supporters or prefer the Nationalist agenda of the 1930s.  For some odd reason, no one can say that they've peaked out and that interest apparently thrives with recruitment.

My general view.....if you make these folks a major target, it tends to make 'martyrs' out of their cause and trigger more recruitment potential.  This time that cops spend in investigating and labeling each guy....causing further investigations?  It would seem like that you have better things to worry about.  But then the government went out and said people were fearful of something.....so they are signing up another ten-thousand-odd police to do something to lessen fear in the public.  My guess is that some of these folks will be full-time Reichsburger-hunters. 

So in the end....yes, these are people living (pretending to be) in the 1920s Weimar period.  It's pretty weird. 

Farm Story

I noticed this basic story in the news this morning.

This is a story about a farm, in the north of Germany.....between Koln and Dusseldorf.  Over the weekend, they had a 'protest' adjacent to the farm.  For those who aren't aware....this particular region (near Rommerskirchen) is in the coal region, and open-pit mining has been going on for decades.

What the news media folks say is that that roughly 500 to a 1,000 young people gathered at this site (the farm) and entered into the open-pit mining area over the weekend.  The mess left behind?  Well, that's the bulk of the story.

The farmer was pretty frustrated and angry, and went to social media to comment about the bad behavior.  The cops joined in on his commentary, in total agreement.

All of this was a slam on "Ende Gelande" and the kid-activists involved in the anti-coal weekend episode.

Between rubbish left and the crop damage....the kid-activists have made a bad name for themselves....in the interest of 'saving the Earth'. 

You see the same behavior in the US, and the UK.  There's a lack of respect for property, and continual trend of just dumping garbage where you demonstrate or riot.  The 'respectful-activist' simply doesn't exist. 

Monday, June 24, 2019

Explosion Story

I live about ten miles south of Limburg.  Sometime on Sunday evening.....a number of folks on one end of Limburg heard this explosion-like sound and felt the ground shake.  It wasn't till daylight came around.....that folks came to realize some crater now existed in a local farmer's field. 

Cause?  WW II bomb.  The size is figured to be around 20 feet deep, and other than a disruption in soil and the crater.....no one was injured, and nothing damaged.

Just one that fell in the war, and never went off until now?  Yes. 

Most of the time, it's via digging, and something is discovered.  Occasionally, it'll be this type of situation where it simply detoniates. 

Sunday, June 23, 2019

German Summer 'Austerity TV'

One of my top ten German peeves (everyone is allowed peeves)....is that from around early June to mid-August....the TV networks all go to what I'd refer to as 'austerity TV'.  Basically, you get ten weeks of reruns and sports-related shows.  It doesn't matter if you are talking about public TV (via the tax) or commercial TV. 

There are three reasons normally given by Germans for this:

1.  Most Germans are on vacation during this period (usually two to three weeks) and not watching TV.

2.  The Germans who aren't on vacation....are sitting in beer-gardens or on the patio....sipping beer.

3.  There's just x-amount of money for producing TV shows and movies....which are geared toward roughly nine months out of the year.

One of the odd features of this period is usually Sunday nights at 9:45 PM on ARD.....public TV, Channel One....where they do go over to a non-repeat movie, but it's usually a Danish or Swedish cop-murder thriller (by Danish standards). 

All of this helping Netflix and Amazon?  Well, some might suggest that this is a great alternate form of entertainment during the austerity season. 

So if you are associating with Germans and wanting to find a period when they are generally available and looking for something to do.....this June to August period is perfect.

The 160 Story

This topic came up in the commercial German news this morning, and is kinda interesting.

So, someone (an opposition party to the CDU/SPD coalition)....asked a question of the Interior Ministry.  The question basically was....during all of this ISIS war in Iraq and Syria....hundreds of German Islamists went off to the war and fought for ISIS.  So what happened to them?

The Interior Ministry probably knew this story for at least six months, but they probably didn't want to openly discuss it.

The answer is....a fair number did die in the ISIS civil war, and a handful returned to Germany (not exactly to open arms).  If you remember the laws enacted....you would be barred from returning and those who returned would end up with a prison sentence then released back into the German public upon completing prison. 

But all this added up and left around 160 Germans Islamists in some mystery category.  They might be dead but no one can confirm that.  They might be still in Syria or Iraq.  Bottom line?  You can't close the book on those 160 individuals. 

I sat and pondered over this.  It's entirely possible that some drifted back into Germany, used a false name, and claimed to be a Syrian, and got a immigration visa.....to avoid the jail route. 

It's also possible that they drifted quietly back into Germany....went to friends, and just stay hidden in an anonymous fashion. 

The fact that they can't account for the 160?  I suspect some Germans worry about this, and have an idea that they are still a threat. 

It is possible that some of these folks got fed up with the civil war....tried to leave, and were executed by ISIS members. 

An interesting topic, but it leads nowhere.

Saturday, June 22, 2019

The Yearly 'Heat Wave'

At some point in June of each year.....the 'heat wave' will occur.  This is typically where fronts go through and the daily high temp is around 32 to 37 degrees C (90 F to 99 F). 

So let's get to the one of the many oddities about Germany.....air conditioning is rarely found.  Major stores might have them.  Your town grocery probably runs it.  Maybe out of a village of 300 houses....maybe thirty of them will have a AC unit (sometimes just for one single room).  The bulk of society lives without AC units.

How do you survive?  Let me offer ten observations.

1.  Heat waves come and go.  So you might have four consecutive days of 33 degrees C, then some storm comes through and the temp drops back down to 24 degrees C for two days.  Then you go through days of a rise, and then you reach 33 degrees again.  Wave in, wave out. 

2.  The serious pain is that concrete structures absorb heat and retain it....for hours and hours.  So with four straight days of heat....your night-time temperatures don't help much in cooling the interior. 

3.  People tend to drink more...not just water, but beer, wine and sodas.

4.  Some Germans are intensely anti-AC and really don't want a brief reprieve from the heat.

5.  Years differ.  You could have a year where only 15 days of 32 degrees C or more occur.  You could have a year where 40 days of 32 degrees C or more occur. 

6.  Thunderstorms play a major role in the cooling and damage cycle.  Late afternoon storms are prevalent throughout Germany in the summer period.  Hail is a major issue that you watch for.

7.  Just because the sign on the bus indicates it has AC, doesn't mean that it actually chills much once the temp is above 35 degrees C.  There's several occasions in the past five years where the temperature was bad enough for me to get off at some bus stop to cool off for 20 minutes before I could complete my trip.  Same is true for the railway services.

8.  Heat waves never occurred prior to the industrial period of Germany, and only occurs now because mankind's contributions to climate change (the actual quote that Germans will give you).

9.  Heat exhaustion does occur, but it's awful rare. 

10.  If you reach a period of ten consecutive days of high temperatures.....you can anticipate that Germans are getting less than 5 hours a night of sleep and are fairly aggravated each morning as they arrive for work. 

Friday, June 21, 2019

Ten General Rules to Observe When Traveling by German Train

1.  Trains in Germany tend to run on time (it's not 100-percent, but it's awful close to 90-to-95 percent).  So when you have to connect, and your first train is only giving you four minutes to go from platform 2 to platform 6....the odds are against you making it.  Have an DB app on your smartphone and try to give yourself a minimum of ten minutes between trains. 

2.  Taking an ICE (high-speed train) with usual high density passenger loads?  Get a reservation (it cost more but it's worth having a seat there for you).

3.  Bring a bottle of water along. 

4.  The big stations all charge you 50-cents to 1-Euro for toilet usage.  Some will refund half of the Euro in a card for the coffee shop there.  The chances of finding a free toilet?  They don't exist anymore.

5.  Higher prices around the stations (compared to airports)?  No.  Normal prices exist at train stations.

6.  Threats?  Pickpockets are threats and just be aware of that.  If you go into a metro station (say Frankfurt) and you intend to walk outside of that station, just be aware that it just might be a drug-zone or heroin-zone.  So exit the station, and walk direct to wherever you have to be. 

7.  Use headphones if playing music, and limit your conversation via phones.  Germans hate loud noise or chatty people.

8.  Keep your ticket in a handy place.  The odds of being checked? Always high.

9.  Most trains have signs about not eating onboard.  No one has an issue on the platform if you are munching on a burger, or pizza. 

10.  Traveling in bad weather (major storms, or snow)?  I strongly advise you to avoid it....wait for twenty-four hours, or have a plan 'B'.  You don't want to be dropped off in some one-dog town with 90 passengers and be told at 7PM that there's no advancing on this train, and the track is shutdown for 12 hours.  Unlike the air travel folks....the Bahn folks can dump you right there, and tell you patiently wait.  There are some rules coming up (via the EU) to encourage the Bahn to refund money if they don't deliver you on time. 

'Dealing' With the AfD Party

If you sit and watch the public chat forums on German TV, and observe news journalists a good bit....there is a trend topic going on right now.  'Tolerance-bullying'.

'Tolerance-bullying' is mostly where you stomp your feet and get all hyped-up that some folks you dislike and hate....don't show tolerance, and you began to make up this juvenile game of mobbing (the German word for bullying) them.  The viewer watching this intellectual discussion begins to realize the mobbing technique used and starts laughing because it's 'fake'.

You get a forum set up and five people chatting away, and blaming all the woes in society on right-wing activity, and insisting that the 'righters' are unable to conduct tolerance like you'd expect in a civilized society.  Shameful polling results, results from elections harming the normal 'big' parties, biased news pieces, and private interpretations of 'mobbing'....began to lead people to use the term tolerance-mobbing.

My personal view of this 'gimmick'?  It relates to a phrase used often in Chinese society....Baizuo.

What is Baizuo?  Well....it's not a pleasant term, and most will grin as they admit it's derogatory and oftens refers back to non-Chinese (western) liberal intellectuals.

A Chinese guy would use Baizuo to fit the guy or gal who is generally "obsessed with political correctness" to the degree that they think they have some moral superiority, when they don't have such a superiority.

Baizuo is basically identifying people who seem preoccupied in saving the world, or saving what they perceive as their society (they own it).  Yes....in some ways, it's an identifier for 'fakeness'.  And yes, this whole tolerance-mobbing game works in the same manner.  Would this crowd even recognize true tolerance?  That's a curious question, and I have doubts that these particular Germans have that ability.

If someone truly wanted to dismantle the AfD Party and the right-wing....simply sit down and reestablish the normal immigration rules that existed prior to 2013, and readily enforce that standard.  If you have someone criminally-possessed (that's apparently their lifestyle) and they are in some probation period for the visa/citizenship deal?  Is this individual really someone that you want to baby-sit for years or decades?  With adult leadership, you could dismantle AfD in a matter of a year or two.

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Driver Story

It's come up as a topic of discussion within the Ministry of Transportation here in Germany....allowing you to get the Motorcycle 'stamp' after you get the plain car license, without a long drawn-out class or second 'special' exam. 

Normally (for several decades and throughout the West Germany period).....you had to go to a private instructor....go through a book type exam, and then go practice for a number of hours before the instructor would sign off.  So you'd do this with the car license, and sorta repeat the exercise to some degree with the motorcycle license.

The new idea being proposed is that you'd just go (after getting the car license) and do a 5-drive episode (roughly five hours) and a simple 90-minute class episode with the book. The instructor would allow you to lead on the bike through city and rural drives, and take you on the autobahn for a stretch.

The idea would also allow regular car license holders to ride a small bike (up to 125 cc) without the special motorcycle license. 

The statistical side of this?  In 2017, 583 Germans died via motorcycles/scooters in Germany.

Why this push?  Well....they've been doing it in Austria and the government thinks it'll work here.

What the experts say?  Well....they are totally against lessening the requirements.  The general problem that people see, and I'll go along with that.....you end up with people who really aren't that careful about their driving, and they get into bad habits.  These are the people who take risks with bikes when they really don't need to take risks. 

Wiesbaden and CityBahn

For almost two years now, Wiesbaden (my local metro area) has been on this mission to achieve a city trolly-car service (referred to as the CityBahn).

For those who weren't aware....Wiesbaden (population 285,000 and growing)...is one of the largest cities in Germany without a local tram or trolly-car operation.  It's mostly buses, with some S-Bahn trains which leave from the railway station to outlying villages/towns.

Some folks associated with the Hessen state authorities came up two years ago (after our local bridge fiasco) and offered up a chunk of money.  The immedate thought was that the city would build the 4th bridge over the Rhine (over a local island) and connect to Mainz.  Then a tram network would be started (connect to Mainz, which already has a trolly-car operation), and Wiesbaden would add a line every five years.  It all made sense on paper.

But then the environmental rule got thrown up.....you can't build a bridge over the Rhine....that goes over an island (yep, they had a national law for that stuff like that).  So they looked two miles up and down the river from that point, and nothing makes sense.....so the whole bridge idea (while being necessary)....ended.

Then we came to the CityBahn idea.

The funding would basically equal one long route, from the Mainz-Kastel bridge over to the Appelalle area, turn, and go toward the train station....passing it, and ending in the shopping district.

All hell broke loose, with various neighborhood groups anti-CityBahn.  A plan 'B'?  No, the city refused to consider any plan 'B'.

The attitude of the city and the pro-CityBahn folks?  You just don't grasp the dynamics of this, or the design.  There are facts, and you just lack the facts in understanding this.

So I noticed this morning, the city is going to have a 'event' down at the Rhein Main University of Applied Sciences building in Wiesbaden next week.  They will have two 'experts' who will talk over the issues and innovation of tram transport and how it's 'wunderbar' for Wiesbaden.

This has turned into a saga of sorts for the city.  The design and layout of the city, really doesn't work well with 285,000 residents.  Maybe in the 1930s, they had a chance to structure the city to fit for a rail network and have three or four routes instead of bus routes.  But they never made that decision.  Today?  You have various neighborhoods which are deemed 'quiet' and they don't want anything infringing that concept.

The fourth bridge?  Desperately needed because both Mainz (210,000) and Wiesbaden (285,000) continue to expand.  Both combined....probably will reach 550,000 in twenty-five years.  But this environmental law will prevent the bridge from ever occurring.

The anti-CiyBahn business?  What the general idea goes to....is that they want options....a different style route....a route of no-importance.  And after you build the route of no-importance?  Then they can whine that the money was wasted and wise leadership would have done this better.

If this fails?  I would generally suggest that city planners will mostly give up on ideas for the inner-city, and put their efforts into building improvements on the outer boundaries of Wiesbaden, where things would be more acceptable.  In some ways, it's the city that wants to grow 'small' and stay 'small'.

Update on Murder Story

A year ago, I essayed a bit over the murder of a Mainz teenager, in the Wiesbaden area....which eventually led to a young Iraqi guy (noted in press coverage as 'Ali B').

This murder trial is underway (maybe for three months now), and we are getting to the 'experts' stage.  So it came up in commercial news coverage today that a mental health expert has examined Ali B.   What the doctor says is that Ali B has a "dissocial personality disorder with psychopathic features".

If you add drugs or booze, it only makes the issue worse.  And he was doing both. 

Then the doctor laid down a pretty rough assessment....that Ali B had this idea that Germany was this country where a guy could have sex with women...."without feeling any consequences."

If you start at the very beginning (when Ali B and his family packed up and left for Greece....on the way to Germany), and introduce this Mainz Jewish teenage girl, with all the drama included, and the chase after Ali B by the authorities.....it'd make for a five-star script for a movie and maybe a 600-page book. 

The verdict for this case?  Right now, journalists are suggesting it'll come by 3 July.  Even if proclaimed guilty (rape and murder)....I don't see the guy getting more than 20 years in prison.  Based on the mental health description, I might even go and question if he should be in a prison, or in a mental facility. 

In this case, if Ali B had stayed in a controlled environment (without booze or alcohol), he probably would have been better off.  Coming to Germany, with open doors to everything, and perceptions that weren't grounded in some reality or civil behavior?  It was probably wrong decision. 

As for the public?  This case tends to remind people that for every hundred 'good' stories you can come up with for migration and asylum.....there's that one really 'bad' story laying out there and really undercuts all the positives.  Even if they'd handcuffed this young guy and forced a massive amount of integration into his life style in the very beginning....his mental issues would have limited any success. 

Wednesday, June 19, 2019

The Good Railway Versus The Bad Railway Syndrome

With my original introduction to the German Bahn (the railway system) in 1978....I became a supporter of the system.  I will readily admit (with the exception of the Netherlands)....Germany runs one of the best railway systems in Europe.  But you have to stand back and observe the whole landscape.

The modern railway cars of today? Sleek, potentially fast, and inviting.  But then you start to notice little things.  Yes, maybe one out of every ten trains you ride....have a broken toilet or two.  I've ridden at least three three-car operations in the last year where the one and only toilet was non-functional. 

The AC units?  Virtually all of the cars delivered in the past twenty years have AC units.  Are they operational?  Well.....no.  What you will find is that when the temperature gets up to around 95 degrees F (35 C) or above, the AC units for the most part are ineffective.  Luckily, there might only be ten days like this in an average summer.  But if you were traveling in August in mid-day?  You might want to exit the train at some point and chill off.

The schedule business?  It's crap.  Even Germans now will whine about this.  You might show up for the 7:06 AM train, and maybe for six weeks straight....it'll leave within a minute or two of that time.  Then you come to some period, where that same train is ten minutes late for almost fifty-percent of the time, for a whole month.  You might even find yourself standing there and expecting this 7:06 AM train totally cancelled, and you are fumbling around with the App.....trying to figure plan 'B', and how late you will be for the office or appointment.

Crowded nature?  Outside of rush-hour periods?  It's typically not an issue.  In rush-hour periods, it's miserable and the Bahn folks keep talking about resolving issues but the best they can do is add one more single car onto a already fairly long train.  This talk of getting more people to avoid driving their car, and using the Bahn?  There are actually environmentalists who chat about doubling the current rider situation.  It's a fantasy with no real potential. 

Train stations maxed out?  If you live around Frankfurt, Hamburg or Essen.....most folks will tell you that in the rush-hour period, there's a major mess brewing. 

The positives?  ALL of the airports are tied into the railway system.  If you have a flight at 9 AM....you can generally use the railway to get from your village to the airport.

The cost?  It's still reasonable and these state 24-hour tickets are a fantastic deal.

The Apps and internet usage?  Fantastic.  You can plan a trip in a matter of five minutes, purchase the ticket, and just jump on the train. 

If you have to do three transfers to achieve your trip.....with less than 20 minutes between each transfer point?  I'd say the odds are only 50-percent that this planned trip will work like you think.

Then I come to safety.  It is rare that any German train has an accident.  A lot of this is due to maintenance efforts, and continual daily reviews of the trains and lines. 

As much as you'd like to say fantastic things about the German railway....you end having to balance this with the negatives. 

Why the Hype Over the Murdered CDU Politician?

About a month ago, up in Kassel (northern Hessen), Walter Lubcke was shot and killed (execution style).  Fairly close to the head, and the description by the cops make it sound 'awful personal'.  Because Lubcke was dumped upon a great deal by right-wing enthusiasts for his pro-migration stand, there was immediately a suggestion of a assassination episode. 

So they have DNA evidence and pinned this on one guy, and there is speculation of at least a second involved in some way.....so there is a conspiracy angle in the mind of the cops.

Why the hype?  It comes to three issues.

1.  Lubcke angered a number of anti-migration folks with a direct statement that if they didn't go along with the pro-stance by the CDU-SPD coalition, then maybe they (the Germans complaining) should leave Germany.  Lubcke wasn't the only political figure to make blunt statements like this, and there's this possibility that a group has been motivated to target these political folks.  Nothing yet, in this case, suggests multiple targets though.

2.  Historically, there's two periods where German politicians were shot for their positions or tough talk (in the latter part of the 1800s and in the 1920 to 1930 period).  For some, there's a fear about starting a trend.

3.  Once you establish a link between the shooter, and his right-wing extremism....then you can use the logic to pursue monitoring of the AfD political party.  It's doubtful that any real connection exists, but you can convince judges that maybe such a link exists. 

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Chancellor Merkel and the Shakes?

Well....if you go and watch the video, it's a fairly warm 82 degrees, and Chancellor Merkel has on a blouse and a jacket (her normal dress style) and she looks like a potential heat stroke victim standing there by the Ukrainian President.   She's got the shakes and toward the end....she looked like she was 60 seconds away from collapsing.

Depending on your dress style....you can accelerate dehydration and make a minor issue quickly transform into a major one.  In her case, she needs to have a ice cold bottle of Gatorade around and gulp down a half bottle right before these outdoor events in the sun.  Age has some relationship to the problem, but people just refuse to accept heat stroke potential. 

Murder Case Story

Since the murder (almost a month ago) of CDU political figure Walter Lübcke....the investigation has taken several 'curves' (two folks arrested then released hours later).

In Hessen circles, Lubcke was fairly well known, and a major figure in the northern quarter of Hessen.  The 'execution-style' murder has been page one news.

Over the weekend, cops announced they'd arrested a guy in connection to this. Placing him at the scene?  Well....DNA.  Weapon?  They apparently haven't recovered that, and the guy isn't very cooperative in talking.

The accusation of being right-wing extremist?  The guy arrested was connected in the past to a right-wing group or two.

How this murder might connect to right-wing extremists?  This gets into an interesting side-story.  At some point with the mass migration scene (2015)...Lubcke came out with a very direct statement that basically said that Germany had a open-door policy, migration was good, and if you as a German were against it....maybe you needed to consider leaving Germany.  Germans can be that blunt in their 'chatter' and say that kind of thing because of their status in political circles.  The problem is that a fair number of people didn't take the statement in a friendly way.

The lead on this case now?  Well, it went from the Kassel region to the Hessen state itself, and now to the federal government of Germany now handling it.  Without the gun?  You can still probably convict, but it makes the case a bit more difficult.  And if he comes up with an alibi?  Well....that might be a problem as well.  But the DNA drives the case at this point.

German Word 'Privatier'

'Privatier' is a curious word, when used in Germany.

It's actually French but has been adapted for use within the German culture.  It typically means that you did very well in life, and made enough to retire early.  So instead of calling yourself a 'retiree' (rentner).....you'd use the word privatier instead. 

Yeah, it does place you in a particular class of people that working-class German people dislike.

Monday, June 17, 2019

If You Tried to Write a Resume for Hitler in 1933

I often point out losers or marginal performers....who have what I call a 10-line resume that would fit onto a 3x5 inch index card.  So this is Hitler's resume:

1907: Brief but failed attempt to attend art academy, lacking educational level for back-up plan architectural school.  Ran out of money for lifestyle in 1909.
1909-1914: Became day-labor guy, and sold water-paintings on the side.  Motivated and lived mostly in Bohemian lifestyle. Moved to Munich in 1913
Summer 1914: Joined German Army.  Spent half of the four-year period with headquarters elements as a courier.
End of 1918: Returned to Munich after the war.  Hired by Bavarian secret police to infiltrate Nationalist Socialist Party.  Attended first party meeting in basement of the Hofbrauhaus. Noted as a clear speaker, and was the keynote speaker for the Nazi Party from early 1919 on.
Jan 1933: Chancellor of Germany

Yes, failed student, day-labor individual, part-time artist, enlisted in Army, secret agent for Bavaria, front-man for political party, Chancellor.   That's it.

Even today, if you tried to explain this to students how a loser could rise up and get a real reputation in life....most wouldn't believe it.

Pool Story

This is one of those odd stories, which you would think is fake or false, but it's true.

German pool operations can make up their own rules.  For example....if they want to offer a no-clothing option one afternoon a week, they can do so.  If they want to absolutely forbid pictures being taken at the pool, they can do so.  So you find that pools often differ.

Up in Koblenz (in the Pfalz region), the pool management folks met and did a new rule for 2019 (back at the very beginning of outdoor pool season).  The rule was.....no Burkini. The regulation basically said that regular swimming trunks, swimming shorts, bikinis, and bathing suits were OK, and later added wetsuits like you'd see in diving situations. 

The Burkini?  This is what Islamic women have designed over the past decade to be accepted at pools, with kids and husbands.

Right away, this got challenged in court.  In the past week, the court rendered it's verdict.....you have to allow Islamic women to wear the Burkini to the pool.

Now, you'd wonder....why make a rule against the Burkini?  This gets to an interesting health issue.  There are people that have hygienic problems or serious health-related issues.....which the Burkini would 'hide'.  Someone with serious open sores for example.....would be forbidden entry.  So in some aspects, it wasn't really racist in nature.

But the court said no.....you have to allow Burkinis.

So that settles the issue?  Well...not entirely.  If you go across to various countries in Europe.....you find various pools which made up rules against the Burkini, and they haven't been ordered to stand down yet. 


Sunday, June 16, 2019

German Cop Story

A story popped up in regional news of Bavaria, and it demonstrates the frustrations of German police and how their routine job is no longer routine.

So the police in Essenbach (30 min drive NE of Munich) got a call.....come out for a drunk situation.  So they arrive....it's a refugee center.  What they have is a Afghan guy laying on the floor....in his vomit....in a safe position to ensure he doesn't 'drown' in it.  He didn't seem to be responsive, but after messing with him.....he appeared to be ok.  But then came the recognition by the guy that this was the police, and then he goes into defensive behavior.  The cops are now having a problem in dealing with the guy.

A second drunk guy from the refugee center now comes at the two cops with a bottle.  So they have to defend against this guy.

A third drunk guy from the refugee center now gets involved....bottle action as well.  By this point, a second cop unit (maybe even a third unit) has now arrived. 

Now, you have various other members of the refugee center who are reacting and throwing items at the windows (breaking them). Cops react with pepper-spray.  The guy who led the window-breaking situation?  He was detained and will face some kind of court appearance.

All of this over a drunk guy who needed medical attention. 

Some will point out and it's probably a correct observation, that once outside of Afghanistan, there's a whole other world in existence, and most folks have never handled alcohol in their life.  But this type of action stages the police (when they get the call to come out to a refugee center).....to come in bulk-force, and expect the worst.  It's a sad part about reality today. 

Saturday, June 15, 2019

BREXIT, the UK, the 44-Billion Euro, and the EU

For those who don't follow the BREXIT business much....a simple update.  The deadline exit date came and passed, and the UK is still in the EU today (thanks to PM May).  This eventually triggered her resignation because she can't conclude a BREXIT Trade Treaty with the EU that the Parliament will sign off on.  So a PM contest is underway, which does NOT require a new national vote (just a party vote).  The French in the past week have said that October is now the final exit point....the Brits must exit.  But the EU hasn't said that.  And the topping on the cake is that some Brits have now said that if NO treaty comes to exist, then the 'divorce' pay-out of 44-billion Euro to the EU (from the British) will NOT occur.

So the question is....does that potential missing 44-billion Euro matter? 

It's odd, very few of the news media folks have asked this question.  I'm not just talking about the Brit BBC, or the London Times....but even in Germany, the 44-billion Euro never comes up as a topic.

Does the EU need the 44-billion Euro?  Well....here's the insider view.  On the basis of the UK leaving, there is a budget shortfall within their budget plan.  Normally, if you were a company, you'd just downsize the budget....cut a few things....and proceed on.  For the EU, this budget process is very messy and no one wants to get into the middle of it to suggest a cut or two (or thousand).

Also, if the 44-billion doesn't show up.....who makes up for it if there is no cut?  Oh yeah....that's a little issue brewing.  Germany and France?  It's very likely that they'd have to find around half of this sum of money out of their budgets.  Go ask Chancellor Merkel the odds of finding 14-billion Euro laying around.  She'll just grin and waltz out of the room.

The blunt truth is that the EU needs that 'divorce-payment' more than people will admit.  If the German public figures out that they are going to be handed an EU-bill of fourteen-billion Euro, then some folks are going to start asking more questions about what the money really does or how the EU works.  The more they dig into it.....the less likely they will be to accept EU domination.  It just invites public frustration. 

So what would the EU give up for that forty-four billion Euro?  A simple no-cost trade agreement?  Well....yeah, that's the real question. 

'Just Not in Our Neighborhood'

There's been this effort over the past decade to introduce more and more wind turbines....to produce 'green-energy' and reduce the nuke-coal contribution to the German grid.  Well.....here's the simple truth....the wind-flow throughout Germany DOES NOT give perfect opportunities for wind generation (same deal for solar).  So you end up doing studies and find valleys and hillsides where wind-flow is higher.

This week, the Regional Assembly for South Hessen (the authority to grant permission for areas for wind-generators) made an announcement and granted authority to proceed on with 121 new priority areas for wind turbines.  Location?  A triangle-like area between the Taunus region, Spessart and Odenwald Mountain area.

This set off a fair amount of hostility with the anti-turbine crowd.  Yes, along with the anti-nuke, the anti-coal, and the anti-solar crowd.....there is a anti-wind-turbine crowd.

Their arguments?  They always start off with the turbines being unsightly. They tend to mean that you have a hillside where a turbine 'farm' has been erected....maybe a dozen generators in view.....and that it spoils their view of the valley.  A good example of this is the hillside overlooking Mainz, and you now have around forty such wind-generators in the background.

The second argument is that they cause potential water contamination.  What usually happens when you have permission to place the wind generator....you get a rough area of twenty acres and you remove all the trees to place your dozen-odd wind-generators.  You pour around a dozen concrete pads which go down into the Earth around three or four meters (to stabilize the pole).  The accusation is that this MIGHT cause contamination.  So far, I haven't seen any scientific evidence to prove the idea but it keeps coming up as a potential source. 

Then we come to species protection.  In this case, there is absolute evidence of birds being attracted to the rotating blades, and getting 'whacked'.  You can question the maintenance guys who show up daily to check the generator and blades.....they all carry a plastic bag and pick up dead birds.  It might be two or three around each wind-generator, so you can do a statistical display of 500 to 1,000 dead birds per each generator, for each year.  They might have a point about this, and no one has ever sat and asked the question over why the blades attract birds (I suspect the wind flow might be driving cause).

So via the court system, these anti-wind-generator groups are challenging the authority on this, and hoping to stop expansion.  The problem though....if you really bog down this whole drive to put up more wind-generators (and assume the same for the solar generators), then this idea of dumping nuke-power and coal-power.....won't occur.  The attitude by the anti-folks?  They want more wind-generators.....but they should be put out in rural non-valley areas (where there is no wind). 

It's an odd problem and not likely to go away. 

Friday, June 14, 2019

The 2nd Populism Accusation

If you've watched German public TV news over the past three years, there's a fair amount of accusations by various political parties and journalists.....saying that populism is going on, and blaming the AfD Party for using migration and immigration as an assault-vehicle for populism.

I would likely go along with one or two of the elements.....agreeing that the AfD saw a public frustration and exploited it.  I might even agree that the massiveness of the issues that the AfD portrayed....probably weren't that massive.  On the other side of the coin....the government (the coalition led by Chancellor Merkel)....screwed-up on a massive scale and either accidentally or intentionally lost trust among among a quarter of the population.

Today, the second accusation of populism was laid out, but this time....NOT against the AfD.  Instead, one of the three temp-agents who lead the SPD Party stood up and suggested that the 2nd populism angle is now the Green Party effort to exploit climate change.  Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel made the accusation and suggests that the Greens are just exploiting climate change for party gains.

A lot of this recent gain business for the German Green Party comes with the youth vote and this Friday 'save-the-world' school strikes going on.

I might go and agee with Schafer-Gumbel...exploitation is going on and will carve off around a quarter of the SPD vote pattern, unless they stand up and challenge the Greens.

How this exploitation is working?  Mostly via social media, bloggers, and limited challenges by the major parties.  In some ways, I think both the SPD and CDU folks are worried that if they challenge the Greens....they will be called 'deniers' and end up losing even more votes and support. 

Could we end with two German front groups (the Greens and the AfD).....based mostly on populism divisions, and staging various crises to get voters over to their platform?  Yes, in the end.....both the CDU and SPD may become minor players in German politics because this populism angle drives so much of society. 

Thursday, June 13, 2019

The Losers Story

It's a ten-line type story that came via BILD in the last day or two....one of the major newspapers of Germany, but one that most German intellectuals tell you to avoid.

So in the city of Berlin....the question came up within the city management process, and the cops had to answer an odd question on statistical analysis of leftwing 'trouble-makers'.  Normally, the political groups get all hyped up about right-wing extremists, so this was going bring some light to a funny data collection.

So the cops have investigated a total of roughly 870 potential 'trouble-makers' over a decade long period (2003 to 2013).  This group would be categorized as left-wing.  I'm guessing the cops will be told to stop classifying folks after telling this story.

So out of this group of 870-odd folks.....the cops came to this one odd piece of data...84-percent were men (three-quarters between 18 and 29), and the massive bulk of them were still living at home with the parents. 

Yeah, in simple terms.....'losers'.

Out of this group of 870-odd people.....roughly a third of them also were unemployed (long-term and short-term).

Cops also admitted that over the final four years of that period....there's at least eleven attempts to murder folks.

If the left-wing folks were required to go out and live on their own....work forty hours a week?  I'm guessing that they'd spend less time talking about anarchy, and left-wing politics.....getting hobbies, and finding a life to live.  The fact that they still live at home after 18?  It just makes you wonder what their lives will be like after age thirty?

Writing Story

I noticed this odd story coming up in the regional news of the Pfalz today.  There's a state effort going on by the coalition and the opposition parties....arguing that kid's writing in the state of the Pfalz....is marginally readable.

Yes, what the teachers are saying that the handwriting style is messed-up.  They are suggesting that roughly a third of all school kids in the state have what you'd call a 'fluid' style of handwriting.

The suggestion going on?  Mandating kids write in a particular style (the letters not connected)....yes, basically printing. 

Course, you'd have to mandate this and start it by the 1st grade and emphasize this over and over throughout the first couple of years. 

Affecting those in the age groups of twelve or more right now?  No....if you listen to the commentary, they are basically giving up on them, and they will go onto jobs in the Pfalz or the rest of Germany.....with limited writing skills.

One might go and laugh about this, but I've had to go on various occasions in the past thirty years to deal with business or government offices in Germany, and you often hope that they will just do a computer product and print the response out....rather than getting some written note from them. 

Getting political folks involved to respond to the issue?  Basically, they'd have to go and make a draft law up....get enough support for it, get it passed, and then mandate teachers have to do things in a certain way.....hoping no idiot challenges you in court. 

An Unscheduled German National Election Possibility?

The current calendar would say that the next German national election is 'kinda' set for September/October of 2021.  But there are several things in play, and there is the suggestion that this current coalition (CDU-CSU-SPD) will likely fall apart after the 3rd state election slated for this fall.  Some folks (even those in the SPD) suggest that the exit will occur late November to mid-December, which means the election would likely occur by early April, unless the Green-FDP substitution were to occur. 

Why all of this really matters?  Well, there are three stimulating problems at work here:

1.  Merkel wouldn't be the CDU Chancellor candidate.  Among the CDU folks, there's some issue over who'd they really like to have be as the Chancellor-candidate. 
2. The SPD Party is at the lowest 'thrill' level of the past sixty years.
3. Environmental problems (surprisingly) now rate as either issue number one, two or three....among the bulk of German voters (not all but at least half).

So there is a belief that if we get to this end of the situation, with an election, that the CDU (nor the SPD) might not be able to swing a majority of the vote.  Yes, the Green Party might be able to take 30-percent (with the SPD probably dropping as low as 10-to-12 percent). 

To have suggested this in the spring of 2018, folks would have laughed you out of the room, but various things have occurred, and there is this fair possibility now of this event occurring.

The importance of these three state elections?  Well....in general, the people who'd really like some positive numbers would be the CDU and SPD parties, but if you look over polling data....neither will be getting positive numbers (most are going toward the Linke Party, the Greens and the AfD.  This would all play into the idea of a unscheduled national election occurring. 


Wednesday, June 12, 2019

Eastern Germany Story

Since the unification of East and West Germany.....there's often been talk among Germans that unification didn't really bring all the positive results that people expected.

There's a story on public TV in Germany today over a study by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research.  What the study came to in terms of results.....the level of Germans living in eastern Germany today.....is the same level that existed in 1905....meaning that stagnation of the population has taken place.

The research folks went back and looked at two cities in particular.....Leipzig and Dresden.  Without the war, both would be mega-cities in terms of population.  But the war and the forty years of DDR changed the dynamics of the two cities.

Some of this has to do with the exodus of people after war (1945) and their desire to live in the US, French or British occupied areas of Germany (West Germany).  Some has to do with the period of life after the wall came down, and the lack of jobs.

But one curious aspect which was pointed out.....the tons of money that came from the German government after 1990....primarily went to urbanized areas, and not rural regions.  The researchers now advocate funding be more directed to the rural regions to attract people. 

One of the curious dynamics of east and west Germany....can only be seen if you go and drive through these rural areas of eastern Germany.  It's just not at the same level like you'd expect in Bavaria or Hessen.  It has that look and feel of a country that is existing still in the 1960s.  And this chatter of 'more' funding?  I have serious doubts that such money exists or will pour into the region.

On The Topic of News

There was a major study done and reviewed by a German commercial news network, looking at how Germans (and other nationalities) get their 'dose' of daily news.   The top five?

1.  ARD (public TV) nightly news (54 percent)
2.  ZDF (public TV) nightly news (44 percent)
3.  Regional public TV networks nightly news (34 percent)
4.  RTL (commercial TV) nightly news (29 percent)
5.  Radio news (21 percent)

(Source: Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2019)

In general, I recommend the ARD 8PM news....it's fairly encapsulated and done in 15 minutes (no commercials).  You get a minute of sports coverage, and a minute of national weather 'chat'. 

The regional news?  Generally, of whichever German state you live in (16 of them)....this usually provides a decent background on events going on in that state.  I will admit that they marginally cover crime news, a fair amount of time is polished for political news which has no value, and they give you maybe half of the whole story....but unless you have a regional newspaper to balance this out and get more in depth coverage....you are fairly limited.

Radio news dying out?  Some Germans will tell you that other than traffic reports, and music....they kinda disregard radio news coverage. 

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

Upcoming State Election

With the Brandenburg state election about 80 days away.....a poll was done and noted on German public TV today.

What they hint at....is that the AfD is now leading the pack and has a 21-percent situation polling.  The Greens have risen up in the past month, and now rate at 17-percent (3rd place), with the SPD party slightly ahead (18-percent).

The CDU is tied with the Greens (at 17-percent), and the Linke Party rests at 14-percent.  The FDP?  At a marginal 5-percent.

If this holds out....it sends a strong signal that the AfD is capable of taking on more voters and they haven't topped out yet.  Taking control of the government?  NO.  They'd have to have two parties signed up as coalition partners, and there's virtually no chance of that.

The problem here is that it'll be a flat-out race between the Greens and CDU for second place.  Whoever wins, has to form a government, and there's a difficult path here. 

If the AfD were to move up a notch or two...say closer to 27-percent?  It'll make it harder for the 2nd place winner to find the right combo for this coalition government at the state level. 

Political Chatter

Ever since the EU election (roughly three weeks ago), there's been this political chatter from journalists in Germany over the likely CDU Party (Merkel's group) candidate for the next election.  Part of this is due to the intriguing idea that an early national election may occur, with some of the elements leading to the public desire for a fresh new face.

What this Chancellor candidate discussion is mostly about?  You have two primary candidates from the CDU that are believed to be in the running.  You also have Robert Habeck from the Green Party who is trending in a major way, and there is some belief that the Greens might be able to pull out an unbelievable one or two point win over the CDU......taking a significant number of votes from the SPD Party.

Habeck is getting weekly invitations to talk shows and chat forums, and he might be as popular as Merkel herself.

The CDU's dilemma?  Presently, AKK (Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer) is the party chief of the CDU and was figured to be the Merkel-approved replacement.  In recent weeks, the party has taken some hits, and there's a belief that AKK can't win in a national election.  The other person discussed is Friedrich Merz....who Merkel was said to be negative about.  Roughly a dozen years ago, Merz was pushed out of responsible jobs while Merkel was Chancellor and he left for the business world.....doing fairly well.  Presently, if you look at internal talks by CDU folks, he's got at least a third of the party membership supporting him.

If the CDU goes with AKK, and loses to the Greens?  There is a scenario where the CDU believes that the Greens would automatically go partner up with the SPD (at a much weaker position) and the Linke Party.  Some talks insist that this will be bringing far-left agenda items to the table, increased taxes, and potentially a recession (not a proven fact). 

If the CDU goes with Merz?  There are a fair number of CDU folks who want a purely center-point driven political agenda, or slightly to the left, and that's not Merz's 'ideals'.  The CDU could lose some normal CDU votes, and potentially lose to the Greens anyway. 

So all of this leading to some division within Merkel's party (the CDU)?  Yes.  Lets be honest.....up until the Merkel era started up....the CDU were a right-of-center party and at least marginally conservative.  Today?  If you are over the age of fifty, you will state the obvious that the CDU isn't the party that your dad voted for, and it's pretty bastardized political situation for them.  While dragging the CDU along to this agenda point, Merkel has permanently damaged the SPD folks because they look almost identical to the CDU in most categories of politics. 

For the remainder of 2019, I think this Merz versus AKK chatter will consume a fair amount of public TV forums. 

The One-Cent Bag

Aldi is one of those discount grocery chains in Germany, that a fair number of folks frequent.  They always hype up their connection to bio-products, and environmental programs.

Well, it came out today that Aldi will start charging you one-Euro-cent for each plastic bag that you use for fruit and vegetables.  Their humble belief is that you will start to lessen your use of plastic bags, if you have to pay for them.

My wife (German in nature) does use Aldi and probably buys three to five vegetable/fruit offerings on each visit.  She's also an extreme 'cheapo' (which is one reason why she's attracted to Aldi).  Paying a cent a bag?  No....very unlikely she'd go and give them five cents for the five bags required. 

I would make the observation that all this pro-environmental stuff being produced on the anti-plastic agenda....has a limit.  The reality is that people shop in a particular way and trying to carry around a dozen apples, or five pears....without a bag....isn't going to get much support. 

Monday, June 10, 2019

A Robbery Story

We had a robbery in Wiesbaden early on Saturday morning (4:30 AM).  Basically, the guy walks into the local gas station about 300 feet away from the train station in town, with a broken beer bottle to threaten the night-shift person. The cash register gets opened.....an unknown amount of small cash is released to the 23-year-old guy.   Then the guy runs out the door, and in the direction of the train station.

The cops?  They get called and are given a description of the guy.  The direction of the train station?  Well....they call up the security folks....give a brief description, and they look at the video feed.  If this had been in the middle of the day....there would be a thousand-odd people to view, but around 5 AM?  There's probably not more than twenty-five people walking in for the early AM S-Bahn (rapid-rail) leading out of the city.

The cops get the description....then have a platform suggestion by security, and enter the train.  In minutes, they are standing in front of the guy, and arrest him.  His intended destination?  Frankfurt. 

What's a guy doing on a 5 AM S-Bahn train to Frankfurt?  I sat there thinking about it, and it only leads to one conclusion.   Well....typically, you'd go to Frankfurt (just outside of the station there) for your heroin 'jolt' and the cash from the gas station would have paid for what you needed.

This is the problem with crime and small-time robbery now in Germany....a lot of this leads back to dopers who just need enough cash to meet their heroin situation for that day.  If you live in any urbanized area, this is the general threat that you tend to think about daily....just a small-time robbery for enough cash to feed to the habit. 


Example of Mafia Crime in Germany

This is one single example of how mafia or clan-family crime and how it affects Germany.

If you walk around Germany today, especially major urbanized areas, you will notice hookah-bars.  Just in the Wiesbaden area, I would guess that we are up to around fourteen hookah bars now.  In the Frankfurt area, it probably goes well over thirty.

What is a hookah-bar?  It is a regular bar, which allows or encourages smoking (via the water pipes).  You order the beer, and an allotment of tobacco (Turkish of course) for your water pipe.  A 250 gram 'blend' of tobacco would typically cost you around 11.50 Euro (figure around $13.50 roughly).  So you socialize, drink, and smoke your tobacco.

What is hookah itself?  It's simple basic tobacco....mixed with molasses, some flavorings.

Out of this 11.50 Euro, it's important to note that taxes consume about 9.15 Euro.  So if you just had plain raw tobacco, it'd only cost you 2.35 Euro.

The crime gangs have figured out the simple method here, of bringing in untaxed tobacco...selling the 250 gram blend to you for the 11.50 Euro, but cutting themselves in for the 9.15 Euro.  If you figure a small shisha bar or hookah bar operation, and on a Friday night....having sixty customers sitting around and each having a 250 gram twice....using untaxed tobacco....that's a 1,098 Euro profit, with the profit from beer on top of that.  You go across a city like Frankfurt, and you could be talking about 200,000 Euro in untaxed tobacco, for just one single night of socializing.

The cops?  Well, various effects are underway to counter the untaxed tobacco situation, and it means showing up at 9 PM.....with a minimum of a dozen cops....closing off the entrance and exit, then conducting a full audit of the place while customers are frustrated over the treatment (they are the innocent bunch).

Millions to be made.....off untaxed tobacco. 

Sunday, June 9, 2019

Riding the 300 KPH (186 MPH) German Train

If you land in Frankfurt, and reserve your seat on the Frankfurt Airport to Koln-City train (no stops in between).....then this route takes you approximately 55 minutes, and will travel for more than half the trip at 300 kph. 

There are very few routes in Germany (four) operating at this level today.  The other six?  Erfurt to Leipzig, Stuttgart to Mannheim, Munich to Nuremberg, Berlin to Hannover, Erfurt to Nuremberg,
and Hannover to Wurzburg. 

There are five additional routes in the work-situation right now, and will eventually be high-speed: Frankfurt-City to Mannheim, Karlsruhr to Basel, Geinhausen to  Hanu, Wendingen to Stuttgart, and Wendingen to Ulm.

The feeling?  Basically, you can attempt to look out the window but it's mostly a blur-situation, and if you do get up to walk around the cabin.....you have to hold onto something as you walk.....to steady your balance.

Odds of surviving an accident?  About ten minutes into this speed thrill....I started to think about this.  With roughly 500 to 800 folks on the train, I'd take a guess that less 10-percent would survive the  accident.  My humble guess is that they inspect the line each and every day. 

Here's the thing though.....if you drove this route (airport at Frankfurt to Koln-City), it'd take 100 minutes roughly, if there were no staus or accidents along the way.  So you are saving time. 

Crime Story

Amongst all of the 'there is no significant increase in crime in Germany' stories.....I got reminded this morning via German commercial news of this odd phenomenon that exists, where the state police groups (all sixteen of them) are now worried about crime families or crime clans (mafia groups).

All sixteen Interior Ministers (the ones responsible for safety and security in each German state) have taken the position of this weekend conference that this organized crime business has grown beyond their capability, and they need unique tools or capabilities to take them on.  Yes, they are asking the German federal government to construct more 'powers' that might be used to invade privacy. 

Where the 'business' of crime is going?  Most cops will agree now that drug trafficking has expanded.  They also suggest that gang chatter or deals are being done a great deal in hookah bars.  There's  a belief that betting shops (totally legal in Germany) are hooked up with the crime clans.  Social welfare fraud?  There's ample proof that some gangs have engaged in this as well.  Money-laundering?  It's reached a level where some suspicion exists that housing units (apartment buildings) were built or bought with dirty money, and clean monthly rent money flows back into the gang's pocket. Human smuggling?  There's various gangs which will indulge in the trade.  Illegal cigarette importation?  Since tobacco taxes expanded twenty years ago.....there's been a continual effort to bring untaxed tobacco into the country.

How much is this problem rated among the public?  I would suggest that it's moved up to the top five issues and ranks up there with welfare reform, or public infrastructure complaints.  But resolving this?  Other than hiring additional cops and swearing that there is no significant rise in crime (via public TV news)....there's no real discussion going on. 

Taxation Story

If you watched either public TV news outlet here in Germany yesterday.....among the top bits of news is this discussion taking place at a G20 Finance Minister meeting in Japan.  Germany's Finance Minister.....Olaf Scholz....is at the middle of this meeting, and he's pushing an agenda that other members are buying into....a worldwide minimum tax for companies.

Yes, after years (maybe even decades), this continual bit of companies declaring all their taxes, and then throwing the tax credits into the middle of this....ending up with marginal or zero tax payments....political folks are now furious (well....as much as they can pretend to be).

The idea here is that the G20 countries (the ones with real industrial clout) could put into a minimum tax deal, and force it. The problem?  No one is sure about the level required.  For example, you (as a company) go and clear 10 billion Euro as 'profit'.....how much do you force upon the company as a minimum (one billion Euro, or three billion Euro, or five billion)?  Then the next question, if you have a mega-company doing this, and then have a local guy employing forty employees in Mainz, and he's using tax credits off his 280,000 Euro 'profit' a year.....do you force a minimum on him as ell (say 100,000 Euro has to be paid as a minimum)? 

Will this type of minimum tax create a wave of movements (say that the headquarters decides to move over to a non-G20 country like Iceland or Lebanon)?   That part of the game is being discussed as well, because they already anticipate that might occur.  Will this cause prices to rise, triggering inflation?  Some argue it might.  If countries like Germany were to get an extra sixty-billion Euro a year via this gimmick.....how would they spend it?  And if the 'gifts' to the public escalate, would Germany come back in five years to bump the minimum tax payment to 35-percent of the profit?  Then twenty years down the line.....50-percent of the profit? 

All of this leads to questions, and I seriously doubt that the G20 will be able to agree on the number that Germany desperately wants.  You might see the majority agree to a 4-percent of the profits minimum tax, which really won't fulfill the dream list of the German Finance Minister. 

Settle back and be entertained by this political 'game'. 

Saturday, June 8, 2019

The Law Story

Yesterday.....Friday....the German Bundestag (the Parliament) stood up and with the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition....passed a package deal that required a fair amount of explaining via the public news folks.....with all of this dealing with migrants, asylum-seekers, failed immigrants, etc.

So in the middle of this.....is this thing called the "Geordnete-Rückkehr-Gesetz." In simple terms, it stands for the normal path on which you exit the country and return to your homeland, upon a failed asylum application.

The comical side of this law?  That is the funny thing....it's written in such a way that it's easily dragged into the court, and it's a 99-percent chance that it will be invalidated.

Yes, they wrote a law and hyped it up to look really really proactive on getting failed asylum-seekers to return to their homeland, and it can't pass the legality standards.

What kind of people do something like this?  Smart people who don't want to resolve their problem, and just pretend that they can fix things....when they lack the competence or cooperation of their coalition-partner.

One journalist suggested that it'd be dragged into court within 7 days after it's considered effective.

Germans view actions like this now.....as reasons to invalidate their enthusiasm for the two major parties, and this lays down the path to fringe parties. 

Friday, June 7, 2019

Dummy Test Story

My son brought up this story today.....over Germany, driving licenses, and 'competency'.

His former work-associate had gone and gotten himself in a high number points racked up....over a one-year period, for driving violations.  Most all of these were speed-related (at least the kid says that).  I use the term 'kid' because he was around 20 years old.

So early on in this year-period, he packed up and moved from the Russelsheim area (east of Mainz), into Mainz itself.  German law says (bluntly says this)....that when you move....you MUST go to the local town hall and note your new residence address.  You get four weeks to accomplish this.  Failure to do it?  You could get yourself into serious issues.

This young man did not register the new address, or leave a postal 'moved-to' address.  We can wonder why on either issue he screwed up, but it's a done deal.

So as each ticket occurred and he should have paid attention.....the ticket failed to go anywhere.  So he racked up way more points than you'd ever achieve. 

The license episode?  The cops eventually figured out his address via income tax submissions, then came to his house, and took the license on the spot.  Then he appeared in front of a judge.  It's an entire year without a license.

But wait.....there's a new twist now to the story, as my son told the story.  The German judge dictated a second requirement besides the 2nd round of drivers training.  The judge wants the 'kid' to take the 'dummy' test.

What exactly is the 'dummy' test?  Well....I was unfamiliar with this, so my son explained this detail.  You appear at some clinic and take a mental health test.....if you are capable of understanding laws, responsibilities, and able to carry out your 'duty'.   So it's a battery of tests to ensure you can even obey driver's safety requirements or how to obey the law.  In simple terms, you could fail this....never getting the license back, and have some judge question your sanity or maturity. 

I just started shaking my head.  If you failed this test, it'd likely a pretty big mess. 

Property Tax Chatter

I've commented on this several times in the past year, with the forced change on property tax law in Germany.  The German Supreme Court said the old method basically had to go, and has given ample time (almost two years) for a new concept to be developed and passed.

So today, they came out with a review on cost with the new method, and the chief city to be 'screwed'?  Mainz, by a 683-percent rise in property tax.  The old rate for an average property in Main was around 62-Euro per year (which most Americans would be extremely happy over that price-tag).  The new amount?  489-Euro per year, for an average lot.

A hefty amount?  Well, if you were in low income level but marginally making enough to cover your mortgage, then you probably have a minor issue on balancing your budget....to find that additional 400-plus Euro a year (figure around 500-US dollars).

Likely to get people upset and furious?  Yeah, but they've got no choice because of the court action requiring a change. 

Bike Story

Back a few months ago, I essayed a piece on the new bike 'autobahn' that was planned up, going from Darmstadt to Frankfurt (31 km or 19.2 miles, and it'd typically take you about 100 minutes of leisure biking, or possibly 60 minutes with a battery 'lift').   Millions were going to be poured into this venture and everyone seemed 'thrilled' (as much as you can get over a paved bike trail).

So in the last day or two....the first piece of this new bike 'autobahn' has been completed (roughly 3.6 kilometers), from Egelsbach to Offenbach.  Here's the interesting thing....it's four meters wide (roughly 13 ft), lighted, and asphalt.  When this is all done....some folks have the idea that thousands of people per day will use this instead of taking the train or driving, from either city. 

My view is that they picked a highly urbanized area.....with probably forty different suburbs or villages between the two, and no matter how you swing this.....they'd probably get 10,000 people a day using some piece or part of this.  But being mostly flat....helped a lot. 

Expansion?  There are various routes being talked about and planned, with some are still five to ten years away. 

How this works in winter?  That's my sole negative view on the concept and money spent.  From November to March....I just don't see the routes being used much. 

Merz Chatter

A couple of months ago, there was an election within the CDU Party (Merkel's crowd) to promote someone to the role of party chief (Merkel was 'releasing this job from her responsibilities).  The thought generally given is that this person will be the Chancellor candidate upon her retirement in 2021 (the next election).  Merkel's chosen person?  AKK, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer.  AKK for the record, is generally nicknamed 'mini-Merkel' because they both generally read off the same script. 

The opposing candidate in this little party chief job was Friedrich Merz.  Merz had been progressing up the ladder of the CDU Party up until about ten to twelve years ago.  A number of folks figured that disenchantment over Merkel was going to occur, and Merz was the obvious replacement person.  For the record, Merz is pro-commerce, pro-business, and has probably a different view on the role of Chancellor and where Germany should be going.  I certainly won't suggest that he is Trump-like, but in his mind....most of the answers to Germany's woes involve getting people jobs, and making German products more attractive.  Science and innovation would fill in the rest of the 'holes'.   Merz kinda got pushed out of roles within the party a decade ago, and quietly went off to work in the business world.  I would suggest that within the top 1,000 CDU members (the ones that matter).....Merz probably is seen by one-third to half of them as a very effective solution to the leadership issues existing now. 

So I noticed this morning, Merz came out and predicted the outcome for the second half of the year.  He expects the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition to dissolve after the 3rd state election (it'd wrap up in October).  He wasn't suggesting a FDP-Greens partnership to occur.....he figured a fresh new election.  So in his mind, the CDU would have to decide if AKK moves up, or if he would get nominated for the Chancellor nomination for the party.

It's curious how he worded this.....he bluntly said.....there's no new fresh ideas with this government (referring to the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition). 

How Merz might go in such an election?  The Greens will nominate Robert Habeck who is currently blazing away, and probably the 2nd most popular political figure in Germany at present.  With the youth vote going to the Green Party presently....Merz might be able to pull slightly more votes, but you have to wonder about the coalition outcome (the SPD will absolutely refuse to partner up, and the Greens are very likely to take 25-percent of the vote).  Since the CDU can't partner with the Linke Party or AfD.....then they are pushed into role with the Greens, or go to another election within four months. 

This might turn fairly interesting. 

Thursday, June 6, 2019

What Led Merkel, and the Intellectual Crowd to Anti-Trump Stance

I kinda suggest this scenario probably played itself out.

Shortly after the November 2016 election, some insiders with the Obama camp (maybe the US Ambassador....maybe Hillary's team....maybe White House connections themselves) suggested that a good bit was going to be played out and that Trump would be gone by the end of 2017 (charges, resignation, or impeachment).  This assuring 'game' led them to be thinking that Trump was just a short-term 'problem' and then things would resolve themselves.

So by the end of 2017....the same sources of insider info, tried to reassure Merkel and the German intellectuals yet again....that the Mueller investigation would result in charges or a resignation.  So all of 2018 played out.

Here in the spring....the same sources kept reassuring folks that the report would settle the mess.

Now?  My humble guess is that various Obama and Clinton insiders are hinting that Trump can be beaten in the contest and the Germans just need to be patient. 

If November 2020 comes and Trump wins?  Well....all this patience is fine but you'd be talking about four more years, and again in my humble opinion.....you could be looking at yet another Trump-like candidate appearing in 2024. 

If this German coalition were to fall, and a new election were to be called.....there's this debate over who might be the CDU pick, and if they might go to someone who wasn't like Merkel and who was mostly just plain neutral over Trump.  With the Green Party and SPD folks.....it's a zero-percent chance. 

All of this.....just fed 'fake' info by insiders in Washington, and the intellectuals in Germany haven't figured that out yet?  More or less. 

How Did This Merkel-Trump 'Thing' Go So Far Negative?

Well....in the middle of March 2017....it was the first initial meeting between Chancellor Merkel and President Trump.  Trump walked in with one central theme and topic.....he wanted to talk trade and commerce, and what he perceived was a unfair situation on German tariffs that existed.   This meeting would NOT have been necessary if the EU and the US in the mid-summer period of 2016....gone and completed their 'nifty' trade agreement.  I should comment here....as the secret talks reaching an end-stage....various individuals from countries across the EU....walked in and read the points, and then said 'no way'. 

So as we stand here in June of 2019.....as of yet, there is no EU trade treaty with the US.  What remains are individual country trade agreements worked out over the past decades.  And it's a fairly strong chance that NO trade will ever occur between the EU and the US....ever.

So as this meeting started up.....Trump brought up the tariffs and trade situations, and Merkel just bluntly looked at him and said you need to deal with the EU.  We can do nothing.

Most business analyst will (from the German side) will strongly suggest that Merkel knows a few basic things about the German economy, but has no real strength on the topic.  She relies upon individuals within the cabinet to run the economical pieces and parts of the German system. 

By pushing Trump back....she figured that the EU would give him the message that the trade talks had collapsed and nothing would occur.

So when this tactic came up with the EU.....Trump said 'fine'.....let's have a tariff situation on various EU products and and affect 28 different countries.  The EU officials weren't expecting that. 

As the weeks went by....various industry folks came to their leadership in the 28 countries....mostly avoiding the EU, and suggesting that this really needed to be worked out.  The German car industry?  They were on the blunt end of being harshly affected. 

Merkel calmly realizing the situation leading back to her handling?  No....that never happened.  In her belief (supported likely by ex-President Obama).....Trump just doesn't grasp diplomacy and intellectualism.  The response here.....that's correct, Trump understands business and commerce.  Either all tariffs need to end, or effective new tariffs to settle problem go into place. 

Once these tariffs go into place?  German companies like BMW, Mercedes and Audi will be affected.  There are suggestions that they may go and start to increase car production in Mexico, or increase their production within the US.  That means some German jobs will disappear, and some jobs will start up in either Mexico or the US. 

Improving any of this?  No. 

There's this odd feature of German intellectualism going on presently, which believes that Trump will be voted out in 2020.  If that doesn't happen, then he will leave in 2024.  At no point do they grasp the point that a 2nd Trump-like character could appear in 2024, and be there for an additional eight years.  So this childish and intellectualism game is really set to screw a bunch of folks over in the long run. 

And the EU resolving this with a US-EU treaty?  It'll never happen.