Friday, January 31, 2020

Coronavirus and Germany

We are now up to six total individuals with the virus identified.   All from the same region....working for the same company.  One is a kid, and was infected from the parent (already identified).  Presently, this guy's wife and two additional children are in the clinic, and under supervision (not identified yet with the virus).

There are two reports on local area activities....where the infected folks reside.  One says that the local kindergarten is refusing kids of employees from this company (even if they are identified as NOT infected).  An additional report says that a car mechanic has refused to work on a car of an employee....who is also NOT infected. 

A second plane is heading into Wuhan, from Germany.....to pick up 90 additional Germans.  This group will also go to Germersheim (the Pfalz region). 

This site in the Pfalz is a Army post for the Germans and apparently had some type of upgrade (80-million Euro) to be a quarantine site (planned from several years ago, if the story is correct). 

Opening Up for a Scandal in Frankfurt

I noticed in Frankfurt news this morning....it's a decided event....both the opera house and theater of Frankfurt....will be torn down.  The only question left is where both of the new operations will be built (same location as current structures, mid-town, NW Frankfurt, or the Osthafen area on the far east of Frankfurt). 

The quoted amount for the two structures?  800-odd million Euro. 

So opens the door for next billion-Euro scandal in Germany.

There is a reputation for big public projects now....that they go 50-to-100 percent over the estimated price.  The potential that the two projects will go beyond 1.5 billion Euro?  I'd give it a better-than-50-percent chance at this point. 

If they are built in the same location?  You'd have to budget at least six months to tear down the current structures, and figure with corruption and problems.....at least four to five years before the new ones are complete.  The city accepting no operation opera house or theater complex for that period?  Zero-percent chance. 

The odds that both were next to each other?  It would make sense and to develop a upscale 'quarter' of Frankfurt for additional attractions....drawing more people to that part of town.  This is one reason why I don't see the structures going up in center of Frankfurt. 

So settle back and watch for the scandal events over the next five years. 

The Saturation Point of Public Transportation

Yesterday, the spending schedule for the German government came out for the railway system came out.  The Germans will be throwing an extra billion Euro a year at the Bahn (the railway network) starting in 2021. 

The purpose is to prepare for doubling the passenger traffic within ten years.

By 2025, that amount will go up to 2-billion Euro a year. 

So the general question is....if you sit and think about it.....even if you spend all this money, will the public come to accept the public transportation situation?   Personally, I have my doubts.

Over the past couple of years, I've been around Munich, Berlin, and Hamburg.  I live in the shadow of Frankfurt and have a fairly good view of how the public transportation sector works there.  And I live in the Wiesbaden area.....so I get a chance to see the bus, tram, and S-Bahn system work on a daily basis.

I'll offer these four observations:

1.  Between 6 and 9 AM.....the Bahn and regional railway system is fairly full.  The bus network is pretty well stretched, with most buses carrying maximum passenger load (folks are standing).  Maybe you could add a few more buses, but other than one or two extra cars per train would be your limit. 

2.  Most of the bigger issues are simply platform length in most subway stations (as you look around cities like Hamburg or Frankfurt).  Maybe you could carve out another 100 meters of space, and add onto various platforms....thus giving you a chance to add one or two more cars to each train.

3.  The hostility situation is pretty hyped up right now, and it's easy to get 300 Germans outraged if the railway management announces a 20-minute delay, and adds an extra 20 minutes along the route to Frankfurt with 'pauses'.  Convincing people to park their car and use the train?  I think you are near the saturation point presently, and maybe maxed out.

4.  Influence of weather.  This rarely gets talked about.  But we have these wind storms that arrive occasionally....maybe four or five times a year, and it heavily influences the traffic, and sometimes shuts down an entire route because of trees falling on lines.  Just to come out at 7 AM and suggest that route 'X' is down, and your alternate route to Frankfurt involves an extra 60 minutes.....would freak out a lot of commuters. 

So I'm not that convinced that doubling the traffic load is a useful idea.  You just end up with more grumpy Germans, and public criticism doubling from what it is already. 

Thursday, January 30, 2020

Germany and the Coronavirus

As of Thursday evening, we are at 5 total identified individuals with the virus (all from the same area, and all work for the same company).  So that's one single added person over the past four days.

One added note.....there were testing procedures done with 110 contacted individuals from this company Thursday afternoon.  The results won't be known until Friday morning.....so there might be more folks added to the virus list at that point.

The Germans hustled out of Wuhan and having arrived in Frankfurt yesterday?  They are set for two weeks of quarantine....in the German military post of Germersheim (small town region in the Pflaz, about 10 minutes driving south of Speyer).  German army participating in monitoring and handling this.

The cost of this flight deal for each German?  Well....originally, the government wasn't saying much.  Now?  They are going to charge each of the ninety Germans flown out.....the cost of a normal ticket from Wuhan to Frankfurt.  The stay in the quarantine....free, apparently.

The government 'point-guy' for commentary?  Health Minister Spahn (CDU).  He's probably done thirty public appearances in the past ten days, and clearly knows the facts and explaining this in simple detail. 

Paper Garbage Story

Since the early 1990s....recycling of paper has been mandatory in Germany.  When briefed on the mandatory nature of this (I had returned to Germany, and the Bitburg Base recycling 'chief' was explaining this detail)....the question came up about 'where' the recycling paper was going.

The German paused for a good 20 seconds, and then kinda said....he wasn't sure, but it seemed to all be trucked 'north' (which he meant in some way to be shipped out of Germany).  None of this made sense to me.

Over the years, I've come to read on various occasions that there was this bulk shipment deal going on.  A freighter would arrive daily in Bremen or Hamburg, and take on thousands of tons.....going to China, and be reused there in some capacity.

Well....it came up in the past couple of months....this movement of waste-paper is finished.  The Chinese no longer want it.

So it's interesting what has transpired.

Because there was money flow going on.....you (the private German) didn't have to pay for waste disposal of paper.  Your garbage cost was affected by the Chinese relationship.

Now?  Virtually everyone is getting a little notice of the monthly or yearly garbage fee going up.  The cost differing from community to community?  Yes.

Re-use still going on?  No one is really saying that.  You almost get the impression that the Germans can't find any real use for recycled paper.  The odds that it'll be still be buried somewhere?  Well....it's best not to suggest that.

The Receipt Story

It is a bit comical to tell this 3-line story.

About a month ago, Germany started up the mandatory rule that bakeries and small operations now MUST hand receipts to customers when the transaction is completed.  The suggestion here....for decades up until this point....they weren't reporting the 'income'.  So every coffee you buy, or every sweet roll....has to have a receipt coming from the cafe operation.

Well....France passed the law this week, which ceases this type of paper receipt.  They say it's a total waste of paper, and time.

You can laugh about France being that far advanced, and the German's paper position, but this is reality in 2020. 

The Spy Story

There's a page four type court case brewing in the Constitutional Court in Karlsruhr (highest court of Germany). 

The topic?  A private group is suing the BND (the German version of the CIA/NSA).  What the group is suggesting is that privacy laws made in Germany.....go past the German border, and the BND can't go and spy on anyone.  In this discussion....they are mainly talking about electronic methods (telephone and internet).

If they win the case?  It's hard to see why the BND would then exist.  They might keep some folks around to read newspapers, or have talks with journalists in other countries.....but the bulk of their manpower could be cut easily.

The odds of the private group winning?  Unknown.  On some legal points, their suggestion is that German privacy law applies across all of the EU, and way past Europe itself.

The fact that forty-odd countries will continue to 'spy' upon Germany?  That hasn't been discussed in journalist pieces on the story.  It's a bit comical, but this is the path that the group has chosen for the case.

What may happen?  The court has the power to say that current law doesn't fit or apply, and 'order' the Bundestag to make a new law....which will say precisely what the court suggests.  My guess is that draft will say that Germany reserves the right to spy on anyone.....who spies on them.

Police Story

It came out today via NDR (regional public TV from north Germany)....the state police of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (region to the east of Hamburg and extending across half of eastern Germany) have changed the rules.  If you get detained or arrested.....your nationality will figure into the arrest report.

If you are German, it'll say so.  If you are Irish, it'll say so.  If you are American, it'll say so.

Why the effort?  What's said is that the political folks want an end to continual rumors of criminals, and the chatter from the German right-wing folks.  The word transparency is heavily emphasized.

Both Hamburg (the state) and Brandenburg have gone this direction....to stop right-wing gossip.

Problems with the press?  Well....most journalists will follow some type of code and try to avoid using the nationality in their 'literature'.  I won't say it's right or wrong....but if you wanted to downsize the element of right-wing chatter and anti-migrants, you need to establish an element of the truth with the public. 

What if you show that one-third of all arrests are with non-Germans?  Well, that would indicate a problem, and you'd calmly ask the question if maybe some of these people just need to return to their homeland.  Hiding this truth.....doesn't help anyone. 

Frankfurt and the Long Wait

After all the drama from yesterday in Frankfurt over the International Auto Show packing up and leaving (for sure)....the hotel and restaurant industry are looking firmly at the city council and mayor....where is the replacement 'show'?

Our regional TV outlet (HR) talked to this subject here this afternoon.

To lay out this whole story....every two years for almost seventy years.....IAA held a major car show in the Frankfurt Messe (the trade halls).  The make on this two weeks of prep and two weeks of show?  At the peak, the city was making around 100 million Euro.  It was a very helpful sum of money.  Bars, hotels, taxi-drivers, hookers, and catering operations all shared in this money.

The experts figured that a day visitor spent 30 Euro each....someone staying the night in the region spent near 100 Euro per day each.

Help by the mayor in presenting the case to continue on in the city?  No.  That was painfully obvious....he didn't want the car show.

So what kind of attraction would bring in the 100-million every two years for a trade show?  Unknown.

There is already a small book show.  If you select anything that revolves around commerce or capitalism....it's bound to draw negative chatter from local groups and some of these political figures who were anti-car show.

The odds of anything coming out of this?  I would suggest someone will drag up one or two shows....maybe added up....they'd pull 20-million every two years, and all the political figures will wave their arms around to call this a success.  Most cities would go and beg for car shows, and go way out of their way to ensure they continue on.  That's not how this was handled, and you have to wonder where Frankfurt is....in a decade.

That Frankfurt Murder Episode

Back in July of 2019, I essayed a couple of times over the German kid (and his mother) who were pushed off a platform at the Frankfurt train station....into the path of a oncoming ICE train (arriving at the station).  The mother was able to climb out of the way at the last second.....the kid died there on the track.

The pusher?  Well....this got into a fairly curious episode.  He is a Swiss migrant (having come from Eritrea back in 2006 to Switzerland and gotten a visa to stay there). 

The story got fairly complicated.  This guy was a poster-'winner' in Switzerland and folks bragged on how he'd adjusted to life there.  Then, something occurred in the past three years, and he started to have serious issues (mentally). 

At some point, if you follow some of the Swiss reporting.....he got into treatment and spent an entire month in some facility....for Paranoid Schizophrenia.  The doctors felt he'd gotten onto the right drug treatment, and could control Schizophrenia.

It appears, again from Swiss reporting....that at some point in June....this guy started to have serious issues again.  So the day comes up in the apartment building where he was living....that he erupted on some neighbor, and they felt threatened.....calling the cops.

This guy freaked out, made his way to the city railway station, and boarded a train out.....to Germany.  He arrived in Frankfurt and spent an evening there, and in the morning of the next day....was on this platform of the arriving ICE train.  For whatever reason, he felt a need to push the mother, the kid, and an older guy into the path of the train.

As he ran away.....locals in the station held him until the cops came. 

What the German authorities say.....from roughly three months ago, is that the guy is unstable and needs to be permanently in a facility.  It appeared at that point that the prosecutor would drop the manslaughter charges and the judge would just move the guy to either a Swiss or German mental institute. 

Well....today, via Focus news.....things went into a different direction.

Both the mother and father of the kid pushed onto the tracks....aren't satisfied over the investigation and are asking more questions.  What's being said here is that not all of the facts have been assembled.  What's missing?  The journalists aren't talking much, and the prosecutor is saying very little.

My humble guess over the lacking info?  They might be asking for the full records of the medical handling for this guy over the past three years, and wondering if he was full-up Paranoid Schizophrenic in 2017 or 2018.  If so, what doctor or authority signed off on the paperwork to allow him to be released (in Switzerland)? 

This medical record situation could reflect badly upon a Swiss doctor or two, and trigger them to have their license reviewed or suspended. 

As for the Swiss-Eritrean guy?  He's probably safe in a fenced-up facility and won't be ever exiting as a free person. 

As for the comment that Eritrea has a higher rate of Paranoid Schizophrenia than most all countries in Europe?  If you go and look up the data.....that statement is true. Did the guy have evidence of Schizophrenia back in 2006?  So far, no one has suggested that. 

The 'Floating-Barrier' Idea

Over the past year or two, if you've watched migrant news, there's a continual path being used to 'float' migrants from Turkey over to Greek islands.  In the vast majority of boat-trips attempted, the idea is that some Turkish guy will put 100 folks on a raft, and tow them to within a couple miles of some Greek island, and the boat will drift over to the island (sooner or later). 

The Greeks are fairly peeved at this point, and have thousands of migrants on various islands....awaiting their 'golden' ticket to Europe.  Some of them have been waiting three years, and that ticket has yet to arrive.  Total sitting in the camps on the various islands?  Roughly 40,000. 

The Greeks?  They need something to convince people to give up on the raft idea.

So N-TV (German commercial news) brought this up today.....a floating barrier.

The barrier itself?  Greeks say it'd be three kilometers long (1.8 miles).  It would go up....with nets....to about one-meter above the water level.  The cost of one single barrier?  The ballpark figure is 500,000 Euro (I assume delivery included).

The idea of going around the barrier?  I sat and pondered over this idea.  You often rely upon currents to bring you to the right isle.  If you parked the raft a kilometer north, to miss the net.....you probably would miss that isle because the drift angle would go differently, and you'd drift for another couple of days before you hit another isle.  I kinda doubt that the raft would last that long (usually, they are cheaply made). 

It's a curious solution and one has to wonder if the EU will fund the idea for the Greeks, or if the Greeks pull the money out of their own pocket. 

Are Germans Hyped Up on the Coronavirus?

Well....yes, and no.

Last night, on the 15-minute prime news (ARD, 8 PM).....it consumed about 40-percent of the period.  Later at 10 PM, I'd guess that roughly 12 minutes was spent talking about related subjects with the Coronavirus.

Germans are consumed with questions, and I suspect they are treating it like Ebola, where it's a 'death-notice'.  However, the facts don't really match up with the Ebola comparison.  In general, the vast number of people who get the Coronavirus....survive on. If you delay seeing a doctor, or have a lung condition, or have a weakened immune system, then you will likely die.  Beyond that, it's a rough flu (maybe going on for two weeks of rest). 

Number of Germans with it at this point?  Four, and they were all in the same town, and same company. 

Here's the thing though....in a normal flu season, in a city like Wiesbaden (285,000)....you will have a minimum of 300 per week who come down with plain regular flu (the 24 to 48 hour type).  Two days ago, someone showed up at one clinic in Wiesbaden and the various conditions suggested the Coronavirus, which pepped up everyone at that clinic.  They had to wait roughly six to eight hours for the test results to come back, and the answer was....NO, it was not the Coronavius, but just a plain regular flu.

The problem is that this chatter of potential Coronavirus, got into social media and for a couple of hours, it was hyped in a unnecessary fashion.

The thing that might worry some Germans....this facial mask business that Asians often get into....well, the German experts are saying it's worthless with this type of virus.  Meanwhile, probably ten-percent of the population is thinking over buying the masks anyway. 

Wednesday, January 29, 2020

TV Tax Update

In a couple of weeks....the board will meet that has 'determination' over the German TV-media tax.

Expectations?  Rumors are right now that the tax to go up by 86 cents (to around 18.36 Euro a month). 

A strong opinion by the board?  Well, there's rumors that some on the board are asking questions.  The push by ARD and ZDF (the two public networks)?  They want more than 86-cents. 

A fight brewing? 

Here's the thing....if you go into a pub of 18-to-25 year old Germans....the vast majority (maybe near 90-percent) will tell you they don't watch German public and think the tax is 'bogus'.  Every year.....more Germans fall into this category, and it's simply increasing. 

With the over-50 year old category....the bulk of them watch public TV, and have some appreciation.

Cutting the budget?  You'd likely drag up the topic of one of the major networks dumping their news service.  The substantial offers for the World Cup or various spots events?  Some Germans would suggest that this should be cut drastically.

The bulk of the 86-cents being added?  Right now, the board is chatting about ZDF and the radio folks getting the bulk of the increase. 

Discrimination Story

This is one of those page four stories in Germany, which won't get much traction, but it really begs for a person sit and ponder about the consequences.

N-TV brought this up today (commercial news network).

A survey was done by the German Federal Anti-Discrimination Agency in Berlin.  The survey asked people who own properties and rent out apartments/houses/flats....if they had a problem in renting to non-Germans.  Forty percent said 'yes'....they have a problem with immigrants or migrants....meaning that they'd rather not rent to them. 

The problem here is that there are laws in place, and if you (the owner) were to suggest there's a problem in renting to a non-German.....the non-German can document this....turn to the agency, getting legal help, and sue you in court.

So what happens to prevent this?  A fair number of owners are looking for middle-people or middle-agencies.....where a 'prevention' angle can be applied, and ensure legal troubles don't occur.  I know....it's still borderline illegal, but people have reached a stage where they question migration in various ways. 

The funny thing here is that you could be Greek or Polish, and the owner might not care at all.  If you were Bulgarian or Romanian?  That's right there on the borderline.  Albanian, Kurd, or Afghan?  It might be in the obstacle area.

Does all of this indicate a national trend, or a national problem?  Well, here's the thing.  In non-urbanized areas (say a 100 km outside of Berlin, or Hamburg).....it may not matter.  Most non-Germans are on a magnet course, and want to live in job-sectors (urban areas)....so the idea of living in a rural town where half the population is concerned over migrants and don't want to rent to them....may not matter. 

Around two years ago, I watched a German comedian who suggested in his 'chatter' that to be fairly integrated and accepted.....the new foreign folks needed to adapt to German names (Wilhelm, Walter, or Klaus).  I'm not suggesting it's a brilliant idea or ethical, but you could go and do the name change, and confuse these anti-migrant flat-owners.

The odds of increased efforts to drag flat-owners into court and sue them?  I'd take a guess that efforts will double up in 2020 and 2021.  But this will likely just churn up more negativity about the government and their way of enforcing anti-discrimination laws. 

IAA Car Show Talks (Frankfurt Out)

A few months ago, I chatted about the big International Car Show (the IAA) that has been held in Frankfurt for decades at the Messe (trade-show buildings).  Every two years, this was held, and it was one of the biggest car-shows).

Well, if you remember the bulk of my comments....a lot of disruptions occurred in this past show, and severe criticism mounted from various environmental groups.  The IAA management folks made a blunt statement at the end of that show......that was probably going to be the last show in Frankfurt.

This week, the IAA folks are having presentations given at their offices in Frankfurt, and looking at the options for 2022.

The cities now competing? Frankfurt's crew has come in and given a big talk and hoping that the criticisms will be forgotten.  But there's six additional cities now going for the show: Berlin, Koln, Hamburg, Hanover, Stuttgart and Munich.

Based on commentary around the city from five months ago, I'd say it's pretty much a 5-percent chance that the 2022 show will come back to Frankfurt, and it leaves a big gapping hole on the Messe profitability.

Hamburg?  If you wanted even more anti-capitalist chatter, and environmentalists involved in criticizing the show.....that's the place to go.  So you can forget about them.

I'd put both Hanover and Koln about a step behind Hamburg.

So this is mostly a run by Munich and Stuttgart?  Yes.  Both are in the heart of car-making regions, and you just won't find that many anti-capitalists in either city.  I can vouch for the trade show building at Munich....top-notch and close to the subway system.

The Stuttgart Messe?  To the south of Stuttgart (5 km from center of town). next to the airport (a plus there).  You can pull right off A8 (the autobahn), and there's a premium upscale railway station there for people wanting to attend a show.

As for the downfall of Frankfurt?  You can go and blame city leadership, various anti-capitalist groups, and general social media.  That was 100-million Euro that flowed through the city over a month-long period of prep and 'execution'.  Hotels were filled up and restaurants saw lots of traffic.  Making up for the loss?  People will still be chatting about this two decades into the future.....as Frankfurt lost something that it could not find anything to fill the 'gap'.

What happens next?  If you follow HR....the IAA folks are supposed to whittle the choices down to three.  I expect them to be Berlin, Munich, and Stuttgart.

UPDATE: (Thursday morning).  Decision was made by the IAA....final three cities in the running are Berlin, Hamburg, and Munich.  Frankfurt is officially finished now, and will see 100-million Euro missing from city profits in 2021. 

Germans to Leave Wuhan?

Locally in Hessen, they say now that the plan is to fly out the 100-odd Germans who reside in Wuhan, and land in Frankfurt on Thursday.

Plan after that landing?  The Hessen authorities say that all of them will go to quarantine conditions (not saying where exactly), for up to 14 days.  Once pass that point, they leave the facility.

There is some hint in the wording that if any one person breaks out in a fever during this transport (figure it to be 12 hours if they don't stop anywhere), they will be isolated from the group on the plane, and taken to some special quarantine upon arrival in Frankfurt.  The German comedians will probably suggest there are quarantine-minus, and quarantine-plus somewhere in this logic.

The phrase which was curious (Health Minister from Federal Government, Spahn), was "watchful serenity".  He says that the Federal guys are watching over everything and you need not worry.

To be honest, this word for serenity (Gelassenheit), is not one that you tend to hear much around Germans.  You can take that to mean various things. 

I would imagine most Germans are shaking their heads and wondering what hasn't been laid out on the table.  But I should note.....in most all westernized countries....the death rate is extremely low.

29 Jan: German News and Coronavirus

There's basically four statements that you can make presently:

1.  A total four German individuals have been identified with it....all from the same company (deals with automobile parts).  A Chinese member of the company had flown into Germany and had a week of training/meetings, and showed no signs of the flu.  She left on 23 January, and mid-way on the flight....came down with a fever. 

2.  The four Germans are resting in a enclosed unit in Bavaria.  None of them appear to be in any serious danger of dying.

3.  The company in question has closed down, and won't open until Monday (so says the boss). 

4.  There is a plan being discussed where a German military medical plane would be flown into China and bring out Germans in Wuhan.  Number of Germans there?  Estimated at 90 or so. 

A serious issue yet?  I'd say no.  Although, I think the number will go beyond four. 

Wolf Story

Couple of days ago....over in the suburb of Sachsenhausen (the pub and party district of Frankfurt)....this 47-year old German gal is driving along a wooded park area, and suddenly this 'dog' comes out of nowhere.  She hits the dog in the street.

The lady stops, and I guess somewhere in the traffic flow....another guy stops, who happens to be a hunter.  The guy eyeballs the dead 'dog', and then kinda suggests that they call the police.  One thing leads to another, and what the guy suggests (picture of the 'dog' kinda suggests that too).....it's a wolf. 

HR, our regional public TV network carried the story yesterday.

This far south?  Well....that's a minor issue by itself.  The fact that this was fairly near an urbanized area?  That might lead to some discussions because wolves don't normally mingle in urbanized zones.

Roundabouts

When I arrived in West Germany in January of 1978....one of the ten more fascinating things to me were the roundabouts (the traffic circles).  I had seen pictures of them, but never entered or exited one. 

In the Frankfurt region of that era....there just weren't that many. 

In the period of the 1990s.....you started to see more of these constructed.  Today, I live near one community (Idstein) of 20,000 residents that has probably forty roundabouts (all constructed since the 1990s). 

So I noticed that N-TV (German commercial news) brought up the topic today.  German traffic engineers are pro-roundabout, and won't hesitate to implement one....provided that the space exists.

Statistically, the selling point of putting up a roundabout is safety, with the flow of traffic always going one single direction. 

I tended to always view the roundabout as one of the more dangerous traffic situations that you could get into.  The key element to safety?  'Privileged traffic'.  With that stupid traffic training book that you get as you arrive in Germany, and the 99-different priorities that you need to memorize (I'm being sarcastic here).....you get yourself into the frame of mind to think and react....automatically.

The N-TV article points out the one key item.....people don't exactly adhere to the rules (like blinking to warn others of your intentions).  If you don't see this feature much.....you don't key in on the safety items. 

The smaller roundabouts compared to the 'maxi' roundabouts?  Mainz has gone and thrown up several 'tiny' roundabouts (where it's a two lane street, and the roundabout is approximately the size required for a golf-cart (instead of a car) to make the circle).  The 'maxi' roundabouts?  Mainz also has a four-lane roundabout (far west part of town) with stop-lights and various exit points.  This is probably one of the most complicated traffic features that I've noticed in Germany.

It's a good article piece if you ever had interest in the 'art' of roundabouts. 

BMW and Cars Sold Story

There's an interesting business report over at N-TV (German commercial news) that I would recommend. 

The hype?  BMW of Germany is expecting a downward turn on sales for 2020.  Chief reason?  BREXIT.

For 2019, there were roughly 235,000 BMWs sold in the UK....around 2-percent fewer than in 2018, and because of the way BREXIT  is going....the expectation is expected to be 2-percent or more for 2020.

The up-side?  Well....BMW seems to have high hopes that a trade agreement will be worked out by the EU and the UK by the end of 2020.  A mission for Chancellor Merkel?  You would think that this might be mission number one for all of 2020, and listed as the top priority of the Merkel cabinet.  For the EU?  Much less so. 

Tuesday, January 28, 2020

The Coin Story

Since the day that the Euro was introduced into German society.....there's been a 'crew' working on influencing the EU headquarters to dump the one-cent and two-cent pieces. 

Yes, it's one of those little non-problems that gets brought up at least once a year.  ARD (public TV, Channel One) has brought up the issue again, and noted that the EU is at least looking at the idea of dumping the coins. 

Here's the simple fact.....the coins are not that popular.  I'll be standing in some line at least once or twice a month, with some German Oma is trying to pay for a bus ticket or some minor bill.....pulling out 20-odd one-cent or two-cent coins, and complicating the whole process. 

I keep a coffee cup in the house and dump these coins into it....with my German wife raiding the cup at least once a week.  Yes, she does the same thing as the Oma....trying to pay bills with small coinage.

The odds that the EU will resolve this and dump the coins?  It's like a lot of things they talk about (like Daylight-Savings-Time), and just plain fail to resolve the mess.  I expect the chatter to be supportive by the bulk of society throughout Europe, and some idiot will find a reason to keep both coins around. 

As for the question.....is there anything left that you can buy for one-cent or three-cents?  No.  You can find various items which are 23-cents, or 35-cents.  But no....there's literally nothing on the German market which is valued at one-cent anymore. 

Political Hype Going Ultra Hype

The state election up in Hamburg is brewing, and things have gotten real heated over the weekend.

Some highly hyped-up individual on climate change....went to say that the climate change can be compared to the Holocaust. 

That got a fair number of Germans spun up.

The problem is that this kid with the original 'thought' used a picture of Greta, and the German Greta (Luisa Neubauer).  Both Greta and Neubauer distanced themselves from suggestion, and tried hard to say this is not the same case. 

Half-Manufactured E-Cars Waiting on Batteries?

Yes.

Focus told this story in the afternoon, and it's a bit amusing.  So what their journalists found was that various German E-Car manufacturers.....Volkswagen, Audi, Mercedes and BMW....have the cars manufactured and ready to go.  The battery packs?  Yet to be made, or installed.

This goes to a specialized company in South Korea, which hasn't reached full capacity on assembly yet.

The number in the yard and waiting?  Well....45,000. 

Porsche having trouble with the E-car (Taycan)?  Same story....late on production due to battery quantity.

The Tesla folks?  So far, no one says issues on the models sitting in a lot or awaiting batteries.  Tesla must not have the problem.

An indicator of things to come?  Well, it makes me wonder about the idea of you having spent 50,000 Euro to buy the vehicle, and having driven it for four years, and having arrived one day at a maintenance issue where they say the battery is 'dying'. 

Then Martin (the German mechanic) tells you the cost of disposal, purchase of the new battery, and installation......freaking you out, then adding the sad problem of five months before he can get it in his hands from some special plant in South Korea.  Huns, your old gas-car mechanic, would have offered a shot of alcohol with bad news....Martin just offers an espresso.

You gaze at the car....still in great shape, and fantastic quality at four years....but a battery that will only get you 100 km (decreasing daily on the charge), and the waiting time of months before another battery can be procured.  Do you keep the stupid car or dump it?  With gas or diesel cars, it was real easy to make this 'dump' decision, but with an E-car?  I'm not so sure.

The New Brit-Germans

HR (our public TV outlet here in Hessen) carried this story in the morning.

Since the BREXIT chatter started several years ago....some Brits who live and work in the Frankfurt region have asked for residency or citizenship.  At present....3,000 will have their papers as of the first first of Feb.

The idea of holding both the UK and German passport?  Right now, under EU rules....it can occur.  After BREXIT, there is no agreement, and if you show up to get the German passport.....you have to give up your British citizenship.

All of this hype three years ago that thousands of London bank folks would be showing up and working in Frankfurt?  It never occurred. 

Monday, January 27, 2020

Political Story

Normally, in a Bundestag election (fall of 2017 was the last one)....you run as a candidate in a district, and upon winning....go to Berlin to represent the party, and the district.

This is how Verena Hartmann came to Berlin as a member of the AfD Party (the anti-immigration political party).

In the past few days (with MDR reporting this), Hartmann has given notice to the AfD Party that she is quitting the party but staying there in the Bundestag as a representative of the district.

Why?  This goes back to a particular personality within the AfD Party....Björn Höcke.  About eight months ago, a number of members of the AfD Party signed off on a 'warning' to the party that they didn't want the AfD Party to become the Björn Höcke Party. 

The best description of Björn Höcke?  He is a big-time player in the region of Thuringian, and as much a nationalist as one can be.  Educated, and somewhat gifted on speech skills....he draws crowds. 

For disgruntled AfD numbers?  We are up to five members who've quit the party in the past three years. 

I would suggest that part of the issue is that the party has yet to reach full maturity, and personality clashes are part of the current existence of the party.

The likely chance that more will resign?  I'd say it's more than likely, and it says something about the membership of the party.  At any point, when the CDU or SPD Parties wake up and resolve the migrant issue in some way to bring back voters....the AfD Party will dissolve away to a party of less than 5-percent of the voting public. 

Germany: First Case of Corona Virus?

Yes, in the city of Sternberg (far south of Bavaria, on the Sternberger See).  One guy.

Sternberg, for the record, is a upscale town....known to have some tourists who float through.

How'd this guy come up with the virus?  Unknown.....journalists have not asked that question.

As for treatment?  Doctors say he's doing fine, and in quarantine.

Update: (Tuesday afternoon).  Kind of a odd update.  This German guy is figured to have contact with a Chinese lady who visited Germany five days ago, and she's already left Germany.  Then the news folks noted this.....so far, she shows NO symptoms.  Go figure that angle. 

Note this as well....German doctors said that wearing a mask in public.....doesn't really help decrease your odds of getting this.

BER Looking for 'Players'

The BER Airport (in Berlin), is now scheduled to open on 31 October of this year.  This past week, they put out an advertisement.....they need 20,000 locals in Berlin to come over, and participate in'runs' to ensure that the facility is working as it should be.

Paid to be an 'extra'?  Well...NO.

Between late June and mid-October.....they intend to ramp up operations, and ensure the system works as promised.

Here at the end of April....they are even looking for 900 locals to be a test group with the train station underneath the airport.

Odds of people showing up?  I kinda question that.  Unless you give something away.....like gift certificates at McDonalds, or a weekly-pass via the rail system.....I doubt that people will show up. 

As for the open deal of BER, and it being operational?  They say it'll be function....even though it's almost 9 years late in terms of opening.

Barber Story

I turned on N-TV news today (German commercial news) and they had this short piece on crime and gangs.  It was a bit amusing.

So the cops kinda woke up in Essen one day and noticed that there were a heck of a lot of new business operations in town.....which were all barbershops.  I might add, that in Wiesbaden in the past year....I've noticed five or six new ones there.

In this Essen case, there were 20 of these barberships that opened up in rapid succession. 

So some investigation came up and what they found was that these new Barbers (I would assume all non-German) were really crime-gang members.

The N-TV folks then added....in the Wedding suburb of Berlin.....a dozen-odd shops opened up in rapid succession as well, and the cops got onto that angle.

So mafia gangs.....as barbers?  Who would have figured that angle? 

Diesel Fines Story

This got brought up via ZDF (German public TV, Channel Two) this morning.

There are four German cities which have diesel driving bans on several streets.  Over the past couple of months since these were implemented.....the number of violations have climbed to 15,000 ticketed people.

The cities?  Stuttgart, Darmstadt, Hamburg and Berlin.

The fine in each case?  Roughly 108 Euro.

The potential that some folks got multiple tickets (maybe a dozen or more)?  No one says much, but I would more than half of this group are multiple 'lucky' people.

All of this....if added up....would result in 1.6 million Euro (if the judges allow the fines to stand)....for the four cities. 

How they make this work?  It's the same blitz-camera situation.....where the camera connects to a network, and looks at the tags and identifies gas versus diesel cars.

A hefty fine?  For some folks.....it'll be a problem. 


New Media Story

There's a great column written in Focus today by Gabor Steingart.....which talks to the issue of German news media sources losing trust with the German public.  I highly endorse the column and recommend it for reading (note: in German, unless you use Chrome).

As he points out....the 'giant' of German weekly news magazines....Spiegel....at it's peak around twenty years ago....sold around 1.1-million copies throughout Germany.  Today?  It's slightly less than 700,000 copies per week.

German public TV (ARD and ZDF)?  They might still sway the older audiences....but with the 25-to-34 year old range....barely 13-percent of that crowd will watch them.  In the 18-to-24 old range?  It's a dismal 6-percent who watch their news pieces.

What he points out is that blogger folks are picking up the pieces with the younger audiences, and asking more direct, and confrontational questions.

I would offer this conclusion.....viewing both the UK and US situation as well....public confidence has been sliding for well over two decades, and frustrations exist with biased or 'fake' news.  It's not like forty years ago where you had no choices.  You can go to various sites on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, or blogs.....sorting through the options, and select the preferred news.

My German wife over the past couple of months has made pointed and blunt criticisms of the public news media in Germany.....yet sits through the evening pieces and continues to watch them.  I think half of her dedication to this however....is based on pointing out the criticism, and their short focus on facts. 

Is this leading to some future problem?  I think a number of big-name newspapers in Germany can survive....but with thinner editions, and pay levels slashed to some extremes.  I think over the next decade.....ZDF and ARD (the public TV giants) will be told to consolidate news at one single network, and dump the other journalists.  I'll also go and predict that biased networks and newspapers will find it difficult to nationally stage their message.  For political parties, it's going to be a rough period. 

Sunday, January 26, 2020

Bottom Line on Leipzig Riot

Back in the summer of 2017....the German government (the Interior Ministry) went and banned a particular web site.  I won't mention the name (you can find it over at MDR), but it has mostly to do with far-left 'chatter'.

This ban was challenged by a group or two, in terms of legality.  There's supposed to be an announcement this week, if the ban is legal or not.

Well....trouble started up on Saturday in Leipzig, which is one of the towns in Germany that I'd regard with a ample population of far-left radicals. 

Roughly 1,600 locals showed up and tried to conduct a peaceful demonstration.  Somewhere in this mix....at least a hundred (maybe more) were less peaceful, and all 'heck' broke loose, with police being pushed around, fireworks being fired, and beer bottles being thrown at the police.

In the end, 13 police were injured, and at least six demonstrators were arrested.  Property damage?  To some extent, yes.

Virtually all political parties are calling for the end to violence, but it doesn't seem to help the situation.

The odds of more riots?  If this court confirms the ban is legal, I'd go and predict more riots next weekend.  I should note here....this is rather isolated (currently limited to Leipzig only). 

Meat Story

I noticed this story in Deutsche Welle this morning.....a cheap-meat 'scandal'.

So the story goes this way....Greenpeace went out and did some type of survey and found that 88-percent of all meat in the German markets and grocery operations is classified as 'cheap-meat' (fairly low quality).

True or not?  The claim goes down this line.....these hogs, chickens, and cattle are apparently (suggested) kept in non-acceptable sanitary conditions on farms.  Added to the story....the conditions are considered illegal (by German and EU standards).

All of this is pointed toward a political effort to mandate transparent farm operations, and higher quality....but if you go down this route....it also means that meat prices are probably going to double over the next two to three years. 

But here's the thing....you aren't exactly getting this low-quality complaint from the general public.  It's from an agenda group.  Truthful or not?  No one is really saying much either way.  Small-time German farmers likely run a decent operation and aren't guilty of unsanitary practices.  Non-German meat being imported in?  This might be part of the issue but there's not a lot of statistical data to make that as a fact. 

Parallels to the Weimar Republic

Over the past two or three years in Germany, some folks (journalists mostly) have picked up the topic of discussing the current state of affairs, the Merkel-coalition, and the old Weimar Republic (existing from 1918 to 1933). 

This topic got brought up this week with the German President (Gauck) in an interview, and he did his best to downplay this comparison.

The Weimar Republic is something that isn't really discussed that much in public forums, and in public circles.  Some people might remember Paul von Hindenburg as President (1925-1933), but no one remembers the Chancellors or the various efforts to stabilize the government.

The Republic ran through various problems (reparations from the war, negativism from the veterans of the war, civil war in Bavaria after WW I, hyperinflation, continued threats from the Communists, constant political chaos for an entire decade, etc). 

The comparison in this modern era?  On the economy, there is no comparison.  There's no hyperinflation.  The recession from 2008....marginally lasted 18 months.  Unemployment a decade ago was around seven to eight percent....presently, it's near 3.1-percent. 

Threats?  None. 

Destabilization?  One can admit that once the AfD Party 'arrived'....they siphoned off around 15-percent of the national voting, and presented serious problems for the CDU and SPD parties.  But it's not the kind of threat that you saw in the 1920s.

So is there anything that is worth mentioning?  Politics has now become a daily topic and fairly hyped by the public TV media.  It's safe to say.....every success and failure is carefully discussed at length, and the public is often frustrated. 

From the historical prospective, the Weimar Republic is a dismal failure, and opened up the door to the Nazi Party being a 'viable' solution.  One might counter that point, by asking what the problem was.....requiring such a solution.  In the end, the public felt so negative about the accomplishments of the Republic, that it didn't take that much effort to settle upon the Nazis. 

In this modern era, I'd point at three key positives....unemployment being so low, the economy in a fairly robust position, and the German middle-class being 'happy' (well, as happy as a German might present themselves).  I might agree that the welfare issues are amply present, and the whole migration and immigration business is far from being settled.  I might also agree that state-by-state issues exist and everyone reading off some national agenda page is failing to some degree. 

The public prepared to see Chancellor Merkel exit the scene?  If you asked around, I think more than two-thirds of the nation is ready for a new Chancellor, and slightly new direction. 

Saturday, January 25, 2020

Explaining the Decrease in In-Country Flights

I noticed this short story last night off ZDF (German public TV, Channel Two) that went over the trend of lesser passengers for 2019, within Germany.

Most people want to say that fewer passengers traveled last year (1.9-percent less than 2018), and its because of carbon chatter, and worry over climate change.

Well....no.

There are three reasons (which ZDF pointed out two of these):

1.  Germanwings (the airline) went on a serious strike episode, and they specialize in a number of German city-to-German city flights.  That occurred in the last couple of months of the year.

2.  Some trends in raising prices....particularly after the mid-way point of the year.....might have triggered some Germans to think about the cost, and alternate cheaper ways of getting from Munich to Berlin, or Hamburg to Frankfurt.

3.  Finally, the Thomas Cook bankruptcy.  While most Germans who bought packages via Thomas Cook....were looking for major trips.....I'd take a guess that thousands walked in and bought in-country flights for special occasions, and were effectively 'screwed' by the bankruptcy, thus missing their flights.

The odds that the downward trend will continue through 2020?  I have serious doubts. 

Basic Facts over Shooting at Rot am See

Story came up yesterday, and there's probably one-hundred sources of news over it, but you come down to roughly four facts:

1.  Young German guy (26 years old) had a weapon license.

2.  The young guy shoots father, mother, and four older folks (unconnected to the family).  All total, six dead.  Two additional folks who were near the structure at the time are wounded, and appear to be just wounded.  The four older folks were NOT inside of the house when the shooting started.

3.  Guy goes and calls the police on himself.

4.  Motive?  All the police will say is that it was an argument brewing over a personal relationship.  They aren't saying it was the 26-year old guy with the issue.  It is oddly noted that the mother wasn't living in the house and appears that she had moved out.

Beyond that.....nothing else.

Mass shootings in Germany?  Rare.....just plain awful rare.  Now, if you were talking about a guy shooting one or two people....I'd go and suggest that this occurs maybe at least once a week, and typically involves some criminal group or drug-gang situation.  But mass shootings are rare.

As for more motive explanation coming out of this?  I think in the end.....the four older folks who were outside of the house.....simply were in the wrong-place, at the wrong-time.....maybe hearing the shots and being curious.

So if you hear hype or rumors, and suspect some terrorism angle?  No.....no terror angle.

Update: Sunday afternoon (26th).  It's come up today by locals in this village....this young guy was a gamer.  He'd moved out of Mom's house three years ago, into dad's place (bottom floor being a pub).  Occasionally, the young guy would help out on the pub.....but the bulk of his time was spent in his room....gaming.  Regular job?  No.  Nothing. 

Basic Pension Spiral

ARD (public German TV, Channel One) did an update over the Basic Pension episode.  For those who haven't followed it, I'll sum up the 'saga'

Out of 83 million residents in Germany, there are a significant number of retirees (well over one million) that are making a marginal pension (anything less than 1,000 Euro a month).  In fact, some are making in the 500-to-600 Euro a month range, and having to apply for welfare to survive.  Basic reason?  These are people who didn't really have a decent skillcraft, made marginal income for forty-five odd years, and never thought about the mess at the end. 

All of this has been page one news for the past three years....intensifying greatly in the past six months. 

I would suggest that well over half the voting public believe that something must be done. 

So along came the Finance Minister with this idea of a tax on stock investment transactions (only if you bought stock from a company valued at 1-billion Euro or more).  They figured they'd take in around 1.5-billion Euro, and be able to cover this.  The hit?  Well....they needed all of the EU to cooperate because if it's Germany alone....German investors would just slide their money outside of Germany and quietly avoid such situations.  The EU?  A week ago, they said 'no thank you'......they really don't want this kind of tax. 

The fact that everyone was hyped up a month ago and thinking in 2021, this mess would be resolved?  Yeah, it's screwed up.

So the update.....the guy who has the control over the draft bill (the German Labor Minister, an SPD Party member)....has quietly pushed the bill back away from discussions in the Bundestag....giving it a delay of two weeks.

The problem here?  To launch this and carry it the first year.....they need 1.5-billion Euro (roughly 2-billion dollars) to just appear out of nowhere. 

The plus-up (if you can call it that) would go to Germans who made less than 1,250 Euro (as a single guy) or 1,950 Euro (married couple).

But the issue doesn't just end there.....the next problem, the insurance companies which run and maintain the pension fund business....readily admit, they have no digital system in place to gauge or check against this test of the 1,250/1,950 Euro requirement.  They'd have to hire someone to write a program to make this work.

They also admit that the mini-job status in your career is a problem, and they haven't yet figured a way around the tax-exempt part-time jobs that are in the mini-job situation.  Maybe out of your years of work....eight years were mini-job years, and the plus-up being discussed really wouldn't work in that situation.

The partner status?  There are a fair number of German couples who've lived together for forty years....never marrying.   They haven't figured a legal way to handle this type of situation.....where they'd hand the benefit to married couples but not to partner couples.

So I come to the end of this essay.  The Basic Pension idea probably needs three years of analysis to deliver and gearing it to work without error.  To deliver it by January 2021 (what the SPD hyped up)?  It won't happen.

If the SPD Party fails?  I don't think Merkel cares to lift this to a crisis stage and protect them.  It's possible that you could see half-million SPD voters walk out the door and refuse to support them in 2021's national election.....over this 'promise'.

In plain words, it's a mess, with no way to resolve it. 

Friday, January 24, 2020

Speed and Cars

This came up today, and it's a curious topic that Focus (the German magazine) brought up.  For a number of months, there's been talks over the upcoming era where only battery cars will be sold as new vehicles (after January 2030). 

So car-makers are studying the E-cars, and here's the fact that most everyone has avoided in discussions.  You will not be able to run high speeds on the German autobahns with E-cars.  The general belief is that 130 kph might be the 'limit' (if there ever was such a thing).....and high speeds would simply drain the batteries at a rapid pace.

Last year, I read two papers that talked about speeds with E-cars, and both kinda hinted that the days of 200 kph (124 mph) would come to an end. 

Course, you would still have gas and diesel cars around for another forty-odd years, and collector vehicles for another hundred-odd years.

All of this however....revolves around the problem of batteries, and the limited amount of charge you could put into such a vehicle. 

I would even make the judgement call that you might be looking at some battery charge study coming sooner or later.....suggesting that 100 kph is the max that you ought to go, with an E-car. 

Irritant Story

Last night, in my local town of Wiesbaden....we had this unqiue event occur down on the walkplatz (the chief shopping area of town).

In the middle of the zone, there's a McDonalds. 

So around 8 to 9 PM.....there's this 'discussion' that starts up between two groups.  No one says if they knew each other.  One group was composed of two young lads.  The other is supposedly four young lads.

The discussion didn't end well, and the group of two march out of the the McDonalds.

Roughly ten minutes pass, and the two that left....return to the restaurant with roughly four friends.

So a confrontation is about to erupt, but not in the way you'd anticipate.  Instead the newly arrived group....launch a tear-gas irritant attack on the four sitting at the table.

All hell breaks loose, and then quickly the new group leave the facility.

McDonalds folks?  They call the cops and an ambulance.  No one says much over an evacuation out of the place but generally....this irritant stuff stays in the air for a while.  I'm guessing most all of the customers left, and the labor crew was a bit bothered.

The ambulance arrives and flushes the eyes of the four young folks.  The cops?  They arrive and take down a report, but the six troublesome kids have long gone.

A typical thing?  Well, over the past year, there's probably been at least a dozen uses of irritant in public places of Wiesbaden....that had nothing to do with the general purpose of the stuff.  It's just something that you now have to deal with and worry about when 'out and about'. 

Sweden and Bombings

In 2019, there were a minimum of 230 bombings in Sweden.  Quietly, the cops have admitted here in January that they are reviewing reports of 2019, and the number might go up....which begs questions over why some were not included in the tally, but let's not expect that much out of the police.

So what are the bombings about?

Well...pure and simply....drug competition among gangs. 

I think a great comparison here would be to pick up the detailed history in Detroit, Chicago and Philly in the 1920s, as prohibition came, and illegal booze became a gang-enterprise to wealth.  Eventually, competition occurred, and gangs were fighting each other over their 'turf'....which you can view the gangs in Swede going at the same problem....too much competition.

The fact that the gangs may be mostly all non-ethnic Swedes?  It doesn't matter.  Any idiot can develop the basic technique to bombs, and place them.

What'll have to happen to halt the bombings?  Basically, it's up to the prosecutors and judges...not the police.  Once the prosecution teams in metropolitan areas agree that they will take on the cases, and want the 'top-dogs of each gang targeted for arrests.....with judges handing out five to ten year sentences for bomb-making and such.....then the bombings will stop overnight.

The odds of this happening in 2020?  Zero.  I think the political establishment is still trying to admit that things aren't that bad, and a few bombs aren't a big deal.  At some point, the gangs (mostly run by teenagers 'bosses') will decide to make a point against another gang in an actual mall, and twenty-odd Swede shoppers will be seriously injured.  At that point, the game will have to shift over, and full-scale arrests will occur. 


Explaining 2015 (Again)

“The mistake was not to have paid attention to create an environment where people can stay in their own country.”

-- Chancellor Merkel at Davos, explaining how Germany screwed up in 2015 with refugees

At the heart of this discussion, if you think about it long enough....you'd have to raise the economy, the living standards, the infrastructure, and the educational level of a number of third-world countries.  Who pays for that?  Well....yeah, you might want to think about that for a while.

The fact that some of these countries had plenty of money to establish this landscape, and corruption simply became overwhelming?  Merkel's solution to corruption?  It's not exactly apparent.

Frankfurt's Opera and Drama Question

I live in the shadow of Frankfurt....a city of roughly 750,000 residents....the largest city of Hessen.  In some ways, I regard it as the 'Chicago' of Germany.  Frankfurt is mostly known as a banking and industrial city....without a lot of culture....with the exception of jazz (they will claim to be the jazz-capital of Germany).

So the city has a theater building for plays and a opera-house for opera.  Both are in the category of 'old'. 

Around a decade ago, there was hype going on to bring about the replacement of both. 

The Alte Oper is a grand building.....staged between the Rothchildspark, and the shopping district.  The original building was put up in the 1880s....destroyed in WW II, and rebuilt in the 1970s.  Most will say it's a grand building from the exterior, but the building needs significant work, or needs to be torn down completely. 

So the Cultural Minister of Frankfurt (an SPD Party member) was supposed to come up with a statement yesterday....but was beaten by a early release of information.  The culture office in town wants to stage a major project....gutting the theater and opera house.....then spending roughly 800 million Euro on two new structures. 

An agreeable situation?  Well, no.  Apparently the CDU political folks have strongly suggested that the new location out to be on the far east end of town (around the Osthafen area.....right on river).  The SPD Culture Minister?  Firmly planted on a mid-town situation, with some belief that the Opera House might be able to be placed on the northwest part of town. 

Just getting the location to some agreeable point?  This might take several years. 

More to the discussion?  This property that the Alte Oper sits upon....is worth a ton of Euro, and various real estate companies would pay dearly to have the property (it's near the banking district as well). 

The 800 million Euro pricetag?  Here's the thing.....virtually every single major project like this (using all of Germany over the past twenty years) has had a pricetag that escalated in a major way.  So to say this is a 800 million Euro project?  No....it's probably going to 1.5 billion Euro easily.  If there is an effort to place the new opera house somewhere where there is no Metro-station?  That's going to require another subway station, and you can figure 100 million Euro added cost easily. 

The odds that this is going to be some major scandal in ten years?  I'd give it a 110-percent chance on that. 

Bundestag Story

I've essayed in the past year once or twice about this, but it's popped up again in the German news.....the number of politicians in the Bundestag.  For those who aren't aware....there are currently 709 members there in Berlin. 

Focus carried a great update, and I'll reference most of my comments back to it. 

Just about everyone in the Bundestag agrees....the number is now a problem and there needs to be a cut-back.  The current problem?  Virtually all of the parties have a solution, with differing numbers.

Back in 2002, there were a total of 603 members.  In virtually every election since that point, there's been an effort after the election to expand....sometimes a dozen seats....sometimes fifty-odd seats.

As each effort passes by....the cost goes up a notch.  Presently?  They've gone over the one-billion Euro point and it's now a public attention matter.

If you were wondering about 'counties'?  Well, there are 299.  So you would think that there would just be one single representative from each of the 299.

The odds of this being worked out by the fall of 2021 (the next national election)?  I'd give it less than a 30-percent chance at this point.  You'd have to go and get both the CDU and SPD to agree upon the matter.  The suggestion of a nice round number of 650?  This might be somewhat agreeable. 

A top ten or top one-hundred problem?  No.  In fact, if you asked most Germans in the public....they'd just say that they see all these empty seats in the Bundestag, and often wonder where these people are, and how they earn their pay.

Thursday, January 23, 2020

On the Topic of Groceries

Around a decade ago.....after travels to Denmark, Italy, and the Netherlands in a two-year period....I came to this reality....groceries are generally cheaper in Germany.  My German wife was shocked that it took that long of time for me to realize this, and had been thinking this for 20-odd years prior to that.

So is the price difference 'big'?  On various products....like dairy, pork, and regional fruit/vegetables....I'd say it's around 20-percent cheaper.  In fact, if I went to the discount grocery, and looked for the cheapest beer possible....I'd pay roughly a quarter Euro per beer (the can deposit would be the equal value of the beer cost itself).  Yes, it'd actually be cheaper than a can of Pepsi or Dr Pepper.

Why the difference?  Taxes are added to some degree, but some analysts would say that farm programs exist to aid farmers financially, and the market can procure German-made goods for a lesser price. 

Last night, on ARD (public TV, Channel One), the show Maischberger came on.  The topics?  Well, it went into a wide variety....German troops in Africa, the economic forum, and then finally came out to the discussion of groceries being 'too cheap'.

Yes.....the discussion went to the idea that you need to cut the subsidiary market, put steps into place where grocery prices move up, and dampen German consumer confidence for a year or two.

Acceptance of this movement?  If you were wanting something to get consumers peeved.....this is the right move. 

Coffee Story

There's a great Focus column written by Julia Kerner today, which focuses on this new German 'worry'.....disposable coffee cups.

To be honest, in the 1980s and 1990s....I don't think Germans were ever much into stopping at some cafe and getting coffee to-go.  Most Germans went to work, and there....they had their brewed coffee.  This development of stopping off on your way to the bus terminal or railway station, is mostly something that has taken off in the past twenty years. 

So as shocking as it may sound....in the past five years, the pro-environment folks have taken to worrying about the number of disposable coffee cups being generated. 

From this column....Kerner focused in on bamboo cups....which are starting to show up.  And she mentions the one key element....when heated up, some of these cups release toxins when hot liquids hit them.

The plastic cup solution?  Well....same story.  A number of these that have been introduced, and hyping people to reuse them.....release serious plastic toxins when heated up.

Going back to glass or ceramic cups...on the go....as the solution?  Well, that's the funny thing, it's virtually the only way to go...if you wanted safe coffee without the toxins.  Potential to break?  It's best not to bring up that fact. 

Is this really something to worry about?  Germans tend to focus a lot and virtually everything comes under some sort of analysis.  If you blew your nose a good bit with tissues and they noticed that you threw away 12 tissues in one single railway trip....they'd hype that issue.  If you bought a fruit juice and tossed the plastic container in the garbage.....they'd start to assemble the data and discuss how many were thrown away daily.

The better solution here?  Just go back to the 1980s....shut down coffee shops, and make everyone brew and drink their coffee at the office. 

Basic Pension 'Failure'?

A few weeks ago, I essayed a piece over the 'great' success of the Basic Pension idea....where one to two million Germans with marginalized pensions (making less than a 1,000 Euro a month) were going to be 'gifted' by the Bundestag with a solution.  A tax was going to be created....upon the rich-people (funny how these solutions always come with increased taxation).  This circled around the idea of taxing stock purchases.

Well...the whole idea depended upon the EU making it a EU-wide thing because if they limited it to just Germany.....investors would have packed up their money and moved it beyond the German border.  The EU's comments over the weekend?  This is a no-go, period. 

The Basic Pension idea?  I sat and watched a piece this morning on N-TV (commercial German news).

The CDU (Merkel's party) has stood up and said this whole Basic Pension plan is crapped out, and they won't support it.

For the SPD Party (the left-of-center folks)?  It's a pretty dismal position to be in....they made a big deal of helping out the marginal pension folks, and now can't deliver.  Hurting them for the 2021 national campaign?  Absolutely. 

There is one other odd footnote about this whole 'failure'.  For any of this financial transaction tax to have worked (effectively).....the government needed to go out and hire up at least a thousand employees to oversee this program.  At this point in time....these people don't exist on the books, and if you were going to start this in 11 months time....you'd have to start the hiring process very shortly, and go into the training period by mid-summer.  Even on that process....the SPD folks seemed to have missed the boat. 

Wednesday, January 22, 2020

RMV Story

Here in the Rhine Valley area.....we have the Rhein-Main-Verkehrsverbund (RMV), which is the 'agent' that runs all of the bus, tram, and regional trainlines.

There's a good article over at HR today, which chats about the accomplishments of the RMV, and where it's going.  Last year, they moved around 805 million passengers over the entire year (remember, this is Frankfurt, Darmstadt and Wiesbaden).

Some folks are predicting the one-billion passenger point by 2025.

But HR explains....there's serious issues in the mix now:

1.  The network has serious issues on being late, or cancelling 'runs'.  Customer expectations are being pushed to the extreme.

2.  Shortages of personnel.  HR points out....one in three railway drivers are in the near-retirement phase over the next five to ten years.

3.  The renovation plans are a serious problem presently.

4.  The railway system is pushed to the max and presently, it's questionable if they can expand and take on more passengers.

Where all of this leads to?  Well....public confidence is presently a daily topic and a lot of Germans grumble about the travels required.

They'd all like to avoid the staus (the heavy traffic on the autobahn system), and would agree to use public transportation....but only if it were reliable.  When you utter the German phrase 'zuverlässig'....'reliable'....Germans usually grin.  They have fairly high expectations, just saying that 75-percent of the time that the buses and trains run on time.....is not enough. 

So, if you were looking for a decent article on the system.....I'd recommend this one.

The Germans Who Leave

Statistically (this comes up at least once or twice a year)....there's a 'average' that occurs (usually between 100,000 and 150,000).  These aren't 'new' Germans (the immigrants).....these are Germans who grew up here, and eventually decided that the 'grass was greener' elsewhere.

This is an essay to discuss this trend, and what is going on. 

So to the first topic....the reasons.  I would argue that there are a minimum of ten reasons driving this exit-business. 

Some Germans will argue that job potential exists elsewhere and it's nothing more than that.  Some find various medical degrees and backgrounds.....getting them great offers in private clinics in Finland, Switzerland, Australia, or the US. 

Some Germans will note that the cost of living in Germany (with taxation issues) has reached a level where situations in other countries are more enticing. 

Some Germans will cite the adventure of moving off to strange locations like Iceland or Canada....as their big reason.  The adventure, the speculation, and the new thrills....drive them in this way.

Some Germans won't to take on an entrepreneurial situation (like in Spain), and they see opportunities to be their own boss.

Some Germans will cite threats and crime....moving to Czech or Hungary to gain some control over their life situation.

Some Germans will talk about increasing levels of 'control' (regulation), or the pure lack of privacy. 

So does the trend ever increase?  No.  You can look at the numbers game, and it generally stays in the 100,000 area. 

Does it say something about the dynamics of Germany in this modern age?   Out of 83-million residents....it's not really a shocking number, but then it does say something about the view of Germans....that you can find 'greener grass' elsewhere. 

I sat on a cruise-boat in New Zealand two years ago.  Oddly, my German wife bumped into a couple onboard this six-hour bay cruise....who were Germans, but had left the homeland twenty years ago and immigrated to Australia.  Both were extremely happy, and never thought for a second about returning to Germany (other than for a visit). 

A page one type topic?  No.  I would regard this as simply an odd feature of German society....where people long for a different life, and go looking for it. 

EU Ban Story

For the past couple of years, the German Interior Ministry has been funding and progressing on facial recognition software.  They've even tested it at the Berlin Hauptbahnhof (main station). 

If you follow the updates, there's some speculation that by early 2021....the Interior Ministry would approve some use of the facial recognition system on a permanent basis (going beyond the test phase).

Well....it came up on a page four-type story via the EU mechanism....suddenly, they want to get involved, and ban all implementation of facial recognition for a period of five years.

Is it worrying the privacy folks at the EU?  I think they are a bit shocked that the test results have been impressive and that Germany was rapidly advancing on this whole process. 

Where would the program have been situated?  Again, if you follow the various reports of the past year....mostly at train stations and transport centers (subways). 

It's the evolution of this process that amazes me.  If unhindered by the EU...I suspect that virtually every single subway station in Berlin over the next five years would have had at least one camera and vast data-banks would have been collecting the data.  You can probably add at least ten additional metropolitan German cities onto this list....if unhindered. 

By 2030?   This would branch out and be in various shopping districts (particularly where theft is rampant) and you might see just in the city of Wiesbaden....over 200 facial recognition 'zones' active and collecting data. 

So this forced pause by the EU?  It'll anger some within the testing 'gang' of the German Interior Ministry because they are ready to go active.  The privacy folks will consider it a victory.  But behind all of this....testing will continue on, and they will perfect the facial recognition program to a five-star status by the end of 2025, when this ban would run out.  I might go out and predict that massive funding will be programmed in 2024, and the program will go national, and be fully operational within six months after the ban expires. 

Whether the privacy folks like it or not.....this technology is coming.  For the criminal gangs operating on shop-lifting games, or petty crimes?  They are screwed big-time and their careers will be ending. 

Tuesday, January 21, 2020

Computer Story

This got brought up today via N-TV (German commercial news), and it's a curious IT-related story.

Around ten years ago....Windows 7 came out.  For those who aren't aware of the deal....there's typically 'support' and security enhancements with each version of Windows for roughly ten years.  So last week (14 Jan 2020)....Microsoft came to a conclusion on supporting Windows 7.  No more updates.

Now for most folks, the way this works.....you go out and buy your most modern version of Microsoft and check if your PC can 'run' it.  A PC or laptop that is six years old.....might be able to marginally run the latest and greatest.  Beyond that....it probably won't be able to handle it. 

So the Green Party stood up in the Bundestag and asked the question.....has the German federal government gone to the next version.  It's a logical question.

Right now, the government admits that 33,000 computers are still using the old Microsoft 7 software. 

But in the midst of the update....they admitted that five of the fourteen ministries....aren't listed.  Reasons?  That was left blank.

One central group working for the German government to buy the necessary licenses and enforce standards across the entire government?  No, that was another criticism of the Green Party over the way that things work.

I am reminded of a personal criticism that I had from twenty years ago.  In the US....in the late 1990s....various state agencies (car tags, licenses, etc)....all had computers and data-sets.  Germany?  It wasn't until 2008 that they finally delivered computers to the car tag offices of each 'county'.  Curiously, as they delivered the computers and printers.....they moved the normal clerks (all over the age of forty-five) out, and into offices where no computers were required.  In came the young crowd.....all 18 to 22 years old.  Professional and friendly (unlike the older crowd who I typically had to do business with).....I asked why the change occurred, and the response was that the older folks couldn't grasp the hardware and software (that was the response from the 18-year-old German gal).

The Greens may have a point here and it might be a good business practice to hire one central authority to provide support in each city for all agency operations.  But getting them all to agree to this?  Forget it. 

Berlin and 2035

Back in December, the Senate of the city of Berlin (not the federal government, but the state government)....acted on a motion and declared a 'climate emergency'.

The plan presented this week....if you follow the magazine Focus.....says that a absolute ban on gas/diesel cars will start up in the inner 'circle' (where the S-Bahn or subway system is operated) in 2030.  Five years will pass, and the same vehicles will be forbidden for the entire city. 

The draft of this 'law'?  Based on various comments....I'd say that it's likely to draw a significant amount of conflict. 

First, you could likely predict that tourism in the city will basically die off....if the tourist bus traffic (all diesel) is tossed off the streets.

How garbage trucks will function?  Unknown.  Same way with police vehicles, fire rescue vehicles, and construction vehicles. 

The daily delivery of goods and items?  A mystery as well.

So this will likely be tossed around and residents of the city will have a long laugh.  What might be salvaged out of this?  They might be able to convince the public to mark off two or three main streets in the city for bicycle traffic only.  Highway 1 going through the Tier Garden area?  Ha....that won't happen on that street.  Nor will it happen on Tiergarten Strasse adjacent to it.

Is this high on the priority list of topics for the residents of the city?  I kinda doubt it.  They certainly want BER (the new airport) to be finished and operational.  They certainly want the crime levels to decrease.  And they'd like to see the subway and tram service 'improved' (if that is physically possible).

This is the current problem with environmental issues.....the solutions put out there for public viewing.....don't really talk to the realities of life.  If you were to take this to the next level....just discussing the idea of letting diesel boats, or tourist vessels to use Spree River would be a big deal.  Some true environmentalists would even go to suggest that you should limit the number of planes landing at BER to just forty per day.....to limit carbon 'pain' on the region.

An oppositionist might look at this strategy and suggest that people that contribute to Berlin society (actually work)....are the only people you should allow to live within the city limits, and everyone else needs to be moved beyond the city limits....to limit carbon within the city itself. 

Why the Norway Government Collapsed?

This past week, the government of Norway collapsed.  To be correct, the coalition government (in existence since 2017) was dependent upon a right-of-center party (the Progress Party, getting 15-percent in the last election) being a partner. 

Well, things went south as a former Norway resident, who'd gone off to the ISIS War in Iraq....got governmental support to return.  Once she arrived, the problem arose that she'd been a participant in the war.  The coalition government basically wanted to overlook that little problem and just pretend it wasn't a big deal.

What happens now?  The woman (former ISIS member) stays, and the government says that they will run a minority government for next year or so....getting them to September 2021....when another election can occur.

The expectations?  You can run a marginal form of government with a minority situation....for a limited period of time.  Generally, unless the news media helps out.....your respect among the public isn't that great.

The odds here that the right-of-center party (the Conservative Party) will edge out the Labour Party?  The Labour won the election last time with 27.4 percent....barely two points more than the Conservative Party.  Presently, I'd take a guess that the Labour Party will take a five-point loss on the next election, and a right-of-center group will win, but have a tough time forming a coalition.  This will simply lead to marginalized government over the next few years and public frustration about the lack of cohesiveness. 

A continued handcuff with the ISIS mess?  That's really the problem laying there, and the left-of-center folks across Europe can't really resolve it without making a fair number of people angry. 

Fake Police Story

Last night (Monday), RTL-TV (commercial German TV) ran a two-hour piece live....entitled: 'Warning, Fake Police'. 

For the last couple of years, there's been this growing trend in Germany....with fake police calling elderly Germans, and convincing them they are in some type of trouble, unless they provide their bank account information. 

From beginning to end, RTL's journalists explained how this works, and the effort by Turkish gangs to rob millions yearly from older and more naive Germans. 

If you go over to the site, you can watch the whole thing (note, in German).   I strongly recommend the piece. 

Finance Minister Story

About three months ago, I essayed a piece on Germany and the big discussion for a stock purchase tax.  The idea was that they'd generate a fair amount of money....leaning more on capitalists and investors, than the 'little' guy.  When you bought stock, you would be taxed at .2-percent on the transaction value of stock (in domestic stock opportunities).  The key here....the company holding the stock had to be valued at 1-billion Euro or more.  Smaller companies?  It had NO effect. 

Yes, it was aimed at strictly twenty-odd companies around Germany, and maybe another fifty around the EU.

The game here?  If you bought 1,000 Euro of stock, you'd pay the German government 2-Euro. 

Waivers?  Apparently, this idea included a waver for Initial Public Offerings (IPOs).  And I should note....derivatives and debt instruments were to be excluded.

To make all of this work....the German Finance Minister....Scholz....needed the bulk of the EU to go along.  If they didn't.....then Germans would funnel their money out of the country, and invest in non-German companies to avoid the stupid tax.

Well....this odd thing came up over the weekend.  The majority of the EU said 'no', and there's strong doubt in Brussels that a united tax can occur.

The mess now?  Here's this funny problem, which you can ponder about.  Scholz came up in the past four weeks and agreed to fund a basic pension deal in Germany....bringing marginalized pension folks from welfare status....up to a decent pension level.  The instrument which was going to help create this extra money path?  Well....the stock tax program. 

I sat this morning and was reading over various accounts of the tax mess, and the basic pension mess.....wondering how Scholz got himself so deep into problems.  If he can't deliver the basic pension deal (slated for 2021), then the public will go fairly negative against the SPD Party.

Will Chancellor Merkel go and spread some 'magic dust' to bring the EU along?  I kinda doubt it.  Maybe ten years ago, she might have done so.  But this is a different period today. 

So the basic pension hype....is finished?  No, but they will end up taking the funds required from general taxation money, and someone down the line will lose a billion or two. 

Monday, January 20, 2020

Germans and Marijuana

Today over HR (German public TV for the Hessen region/state)....there's a great news report over use of marijuana in Germany, and the current problem trend.

For those unfamiliar with marijuana, there's an active ingredient which lays out the path of your 'high' or the intensity....tetrahydrocannabinol (normally referred to as THC).  The more THC....the more intense the 'smoke' is for the consumer.

So the experts talk about Germans, and the THC level.  Back in 2006, the average THC level was five percent.  Today?  The last major study on the topic was in 2016, and the average THC level was then noted at 10.2 percent.  Yep, it doubled.  And the odds are....it's probably beyond 11 percent today.

This brings up a problem that the German medical establishment has referred to....as increasing psychosis events....requiring serious help from medical professionals. 

All of this leads to a term that is being thrown around occasionally in German society...."turbo cannabis".  Consumers have shifted to heavier doses of THC, and gotten themselves deep into trouble.

This 'trouble' relates to 19,000 Germans who, yearly, now have to put themselves into a clinic because of psychosis issues.  That's almost double what it was a decade ago.  Panic attacks and anxiety issues?  They are all part of this trend, in terms of growth and numbers.

It's an interesting report, and I'd strongly recommend it. 

Sports and Economics

This is a sports and economics story on a German topic.

For those who aren't aware of it....for German soccer, there are leagues, and if you crap out (meaning you get to the final three of the league), you get dismissed as a team and sent to the next down.  The positive here, if you are in the third-level league (pretty far down on the totem pole), and get into the top three positions....you move up a notch next year, to the second league. 

The disadvantage of going from the first league, to the second....to the possible third league....you can't really charge full price on entry tickets.  An example of this....if you wanted a normal average seat over at Mainz for their first league team, the basic ticket would cost you around 15 Euro (up to 17 Euro if Munich comes to town). 

However, if this were a second league team, you'd probably be limited to around 10 Euro for a basic ticket to enter.  And if this were a third league team?  Typically not more than 7 Euro (meaning $8.50 US dollar).

So this story starts out in 2002, in Kaiserslautern (in the Pfalz).  The city management was able to convince the folks running the World Cup in 2006....that K-Town would be this wonderful to have a couple of the games.  Everything was agreed upon, and then the topic of Fritz Walter Stadium came up.  The stadium needed renovation, and the eventual amount was figured to be near 40-million Euro (a hefty amount).

Who signed the paperwork?  The city management folks. 

They figured that they would get the money back via the 'rent' that the FCK local soccer team (in the first league) would bring in, and from the 2006 World Cup action. 

The yearly rent necessary to pay the bills and the renovation 'loan'?  3.25 million Euro. 

The FCK club?  Stuck in the third league?  They've been there for several years and the most that they can pay is 425,000 Euro (roughly 2.8 million missing). 

Who pays the missing 2.8 million?  The city.

Yes, out of their budget.....via the money from the state and the fees, fines and property tax base. 

In recent weeks, this has come up as a major topic, with the mayor and city council in serious discussions that something has to happen.  The FCK team playing better and moving up to the second league?  No....that won't happen. 

The mayor has suggested in the past week that maybe they could interest some concert folks in using the stadium.....that they could pick up an extra quarter-million here and there....if they could package it for concerts. 

If that fails?  Well....the city will continue to float the renovation loan business and the public will be handed the bill....for a stadium that has no other use capability.