Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Germans and New Zealand

It got brought up today....roughly 12,000 German tourists are presently 'stuck' in New Zealand because of the rigorous policy set up on landing planes and the Coronavirus. 

The German Foreign Ministry is working up a deal for Lufthansa to fly in (no estimate on the number of planes required or the cost factor). 

Handling it?  Well....I get the impression from the news 'chatter' that most weren't expecting to be cut-off and their pot of 'cash' for an extended stay isn't enough to handle two or three months of this. 

My advice for them....go out to the regional airport....find the RV rental shop and hire up a van for 30 days.  Anticipate at some point in early May....the government of New Zealand will have to allow some type of arrival/exit deal to occur.  Go camping around New Zealand for another couple of weeks, and just enjoy the weather and landscape. 

Coranavirus on the Mind

Last night....off ARD (public TV in Germany, Channel One).....they ran a special live version of Hart Aber Fair (Hard But Fair).....a two-hour deal with no commercials.  One moderator and five 'talkers', with two-dozen-odd discussion topics.

The real focus?  The physiological side of the Coronavirus.  One example....they had a guy (mid-50s, with his mid-20s daughter).....and the wife is dying of cancer (maybe a month or two left to go, and she's in an isolation ward of the hospital.  It's obvious that the husband and daughter can't visit her and there's a lot of human emotion tied into this whole thing. 

There were various discussions carried on, and it's more than obvious that some people are reaching a serious breaking point.  Finances don't make sense.....short-work payments by the government only pay around two-thirds of a normal check.  Most people had the ability to sustain two or three months of this.....with nothing much after that point. 

Those on welfare?  Really at the deep end of the mess.

Watching that last night, I would question how you could go on with another four to eight weeks of 'home-arrest'. 

Gunfire Story

I live in a German city which isn't a place where you anticipate gunfire.  You might have assaults, pick-pockets, and drunken behavior....but gunfire isn't something you ever confront.

Over on the far south of town....in the Biebrich neighborhood (against the Rhine River)....on Sunday evening (just after dark), a number of shots rang out.  This was over by the 'Schlosspark' area.

To describe the Schlosspark....this is a 60-acre site which is more of an English-gardens open park with walking trails.  It's a great site in the summer-time to walk, or have a picnic. 

Up until three or four years ago, I would have said the park was safe around the clock....24 hours a day.  Now?  I would suggest that after dark...it's more known for drug-dealing and it's probably not a place to be in the evening hours.

Locals heard the shots and called the cops, and they arrived in 'force', with their rifles and combat-gear. 

What can be said now is that they've apprehended 14 guys who were within the grounds, stopped a car or two, and started up a major investigation.  Seven of the 14 are now officially arrested.  A wounded guy?  No one says much. 

Reaction since then?  Last night (Monday).....cops did a number of stops with people in this area, and reviewed their IDs. 

A rough town?  No.  If you were around in the 1980s and had this image of a small-town atmosphere with a pretty safe situation....well, things have changed. 

Germany and the Coronavirus: 31 March 2020

1.  Deaths:  549 (Focus numbers)   Infected: 62,166  (Focus numbers).    Bavaria moved ahead on infections, and sits at 14,437 infected.  There was a 'death-surge' yesterday....almost a hundred over the previous day.  If you do the spreadsheet analysis....the 1,000 dead point will be reached by this coming weekend.  The pace to 2,000 dead?  It'll be achieved within seven days after the 1,000 dead point. 

2.  There's an association of Zoos in Germany, which are shut-down because of the public order.....now requesting a 100-million Euro situation from the Berlin authority.  For almost a month, no visitors have been allowed, and these Zoos are suffering a bit on money.  Government hasn't said anything but it's mostly due to them that the Zoos are closed off to the public. 

3.  The city of Jena has started a new rule....if you are in a public setting, you need to wear something over your mouth-noise.

4.  Third negative test for Chancellor Merkel completed.

5.  Several legal cases for Corona have started to reach the courts.  A bank in Hessen was going to have it's public stockholders meeting (a public situation).  Everything would have been done digitally for the stockholders, with the officials the only ones there.  One stockholder is determined to prevent that.  Another challenge concerns the ability of the government to shutdown business operations.  There's also a challenge by the Catholic Church to limit or halt their services.  These might be interesting to view.

6.  Lufthansa flew in one flight from Kenya last night (Mon) of Germans who'd been stuck there.  No idea on the number aboard.

7.  Two groups of German scientists have studied the virus and now both suggest that this 'wave' will not end until the early fall period (September).

8.  Some Germans have brought up 1986, the Chernobyl period, and how the public reaction was 'only moderate'.  Some remember playing soccer on grounds that likely had radiation 'ash' on them.  Now?  They may have a point.  In today's world?  You would have shutdown everything for at least a month. 

9.  Some discussion going on about restarting the soccer season (maybe not in April). They would start a delayed season (maybe in late May).  This would naturally mean a period of 'rest' in the early-fall, and then the new season would start two months later (maybe in November).  Teams are a bit desperate for income (I think) and fans are willing (against government advice) to come out.

10.  Death rate against infected?  .9-percent.  Italy's percentage?  11.4-percent.

11.  Where I see the relaxation?  I think shortly after Easter....a series (maybe even up to ten periods) will start to occur.  Borders and airport situations will change only if the EU ensures a mass relaxation, and this might take two additional months.  But I think most businesses will be open within three weeks after Easter. 

Monday, March 30, 2020

Germany and the Coronavirus: 30 March 2020

1.  Deaths: 456 (Focus numbers), Infected: 58,654.  Bavaria now leads the 16 states with infections...just over 13,000.  Death lead is by Baden-Wurttemberg (126).  One odd thing that has been pointed out on procedures on deaths.  If you died in a car accident in Spain....they test you and if you are positive, they list your death by the Coronavirus....NOT by the accident.  Same if you were in last stage of cancer, to pass away.....the body will be tested and if Coronavirus comes up....that's what the death certificate will show.  In Germany....you are listed by the actual outcome of your life (cancer is cancer.....murder is murder....etc).  This may explain why Italy and Spain have such high death rates, and Germany does not.

2.  NRW (the state) is drafting up a law that would cancel final exams at all secondary schools in the state for 2020.  Very extreme measure.

3.  Starting today (Mon), billions of Euro will be released to small-time business people (if they apply) as part of the effort to keep them going.

4.  Pete Altmaier (government Minister of Economics) spoke up last night on Anne Will....says the worst possible thing would be to open up totally for business, then a period later (two weeks....two months)....shutting down again.  That, as he suggests....cannot be the gameplan.

5.   Political survey I noticed this morning....says that on the charts....the CDU (Merkel's party) and the SPD (the left-of-center party) would now together achieve 50-percent of the national vote if the election occurred.  The Greens and AfD have lost a fair number of votes over the past month.  All of this because of confidence in the coalition government.

6. The major hospital in Wolfsburg has shut down admissions....they reached maximum capacity (first German hospital to admit this).

7.  Tests now coming up for airports.  If you were to fly in....you'd be directed to some point and be tested, with results coming up in 2.5 hours.  Hard to imagine how this would work at Frankfurt, and how they would 'herd' you into some waiting area.  No idea yet on when airports would open anyway.

8.  Germany's 'Masked-Singer' show shut down in the middle of the season.  Two of their folks are quarantined.

9.  If you look at graphical charts at N-TV (commercial German TV news).....the infection rate has leveled off in the past 7 days.  High point was the 5th of March, but the last seven days have been going extremely low.  I won't say it's at a point to be happy but once you hit Easter and the rate continues....it'd be the time to remove most rules.

10.  German death rate against infected rate......is .8-percent (compared to Spain's 8.4-percent or France's 6.8-percent).  It should be noted....Japan's infected rate has yet to hit more than 1,866 and it's death rate is 56.

11.  Great story on N-TV about the German research unit for infectious diseases....on the island of Riems....just off the German coast.  Worth reading up on the unit.

12.  Some talk exists that the 10-year real estate 'boom' has hit a peak point, and will fall a bit in 2020 because of the virus.  Prices decreasing?  People are careful not to suggest the amount or percentage of price-cuts coming.  A lot of people are stuck in mortgages which they can't cover, with the current shut-down of business operations.  It wouldn't shock me to see some 400k Euro upscale condo units going for 10-to-20 percent off....just to avoid serious financial issues.  But here's the thing....this economic downturn has a limit.

Sunday, March 29, 2020

Cars Burned

There on Friday evening, we had a rather unique fire episode to occur over in the SE area of Wiesbaden (Amoneburg suburb), with a car sales lot that had a fire episode.

What the cops say is that there is car lot next to the railroad tracks in Amoneburg....with a blackberry bush area between the two.  Somehow in the night, with sparks from the railway (questionable explanation)....the blackberry area caught on fire.  This passed the bushes and then set some of the cars on fire.

At the end, 31 brand-new hybrid cars burned up.  1.4-million Euro of loss for the company.

A lot of toxic fumes, and several folks were taken off to local hospitals. 

'Corona-Stress'

Whether people want to admit it or not....stress is now a problem.

This morning, the Hessen government came to announce that the Financial Minister of the state of Hessen, had committed suicide.  Thomas Schafer.

The guy was in his mid-50s...highly educated (reaching a doctoral degree) and considered the most likely person for Premier-President of the state in the 2023 election coming up.  He'd been the state Finance Minister for a number of years and highly regarded.

What they generally say is that the stress consumed him, and unlike previous occasions where he devise financial solutions, this was different.

I suspect if you looked around the landscape right now....several thousand people are on the edge.  Some are considered successful but their financial path is rapidly failing them at this point.

The news media as part of this hype?  Go view public TV at night....it's national news and consumes 80 to 90 percent of all news.  Reality TV shows are being made over it. 

So there's stress, and it's going to have implications. 

Germany and the Coronavirus: 29 March 2020

1.  Dead:  397 (Focus numbers)    Infected:   54,212 (Focus numbers).  Baden-Wurttemberg now leads with deaths (of the 16 states): 118, with NRW in second position (105 deaths). 

2.  At this point (spoken by the Foreign Ministry), roughly 180,000 Germans have been brought into the nation from their vacation spots (instead of being stranded).  Still left?  They think in the 200k range. 

3.  News groups are carrying a Spanish report that all non-essential businesses in Spain must shut down for two weeks.....starting Monday.

4.  ARD (public TV) has brought up this argument/discussion by medical folks.  Some suggest that the death rates aren't as bad a normal yearly flu-death rates.  This argument goes to the discussion that draws serious criticism by other health professionals.  RKI folks even say in 2017/2018....roughly 25,000 Germans died in that period, from the flu. 

5.  Normally, we'd be at the tail-end of the soccer season, and a fair amount of hype would be going on presently.  Today?  Nothing. 

6.  The rent discussion.  The Bundestag passed a Coronavirus law which said that private people and companies could stop paying rent for 3 months.  Well....several big-name companies have stood up and said they intend to use the law (Adidas is one of them).  Rent would normally be due for apartments/houses in the next couple of days and I expect private individuals to also stand up and sign the paperwork.

Legal minds are NOT that sure that the law is valid, and if you sit and think about it.....landlords and banks are the ones in a bad position, with no coverage from the Bundestag.  The Bundestag law didn't exactly go and figure the second step where banks and landlords needed some kind of 'credit' or tax-deal to avoid problems. 

No one is citing numbers and you can't be sure just how big of a deal this is.  I would suggest that more than 50-percent of the working public has a weaker end-of-month paycheck coming and will be challenged to cover their rent.  For some shops (like coffee shops or barber situations), most have been shut down for a minimum of three weeks, and cash flow is virtually zero. 

Saturday, March 28, 2020

Chancellor's Podcast

A podcast came out this morning from Chancellor Merkel.  The basic message?

1.  She's had the second negative result on the virus test, and will conduct the full 14-day home-quarantine....for 'safety' reasons.

2.  She stressed that it's been a helpful thing for Germans to conduct the curfew business. 

3.  Finally, the daily numbers for infections haven't reached the level yet to curtail the curfew business.  Her hint is that the stringent rules have to continue for at least ten more days.  That would put it near 12 April (Easter weekend).

What happens then?  Unknown.  Business-wise, it's hard to see this ban and curfew business going for another three months.  Maybe the airlines and airport business could continue, with serious damage done.....but for the rest of the German economic system, it's not developed to handle a lengthy of a shut-down. 

You can look around at a simple beauty shop with a owner and two employees....there's not much optimism over a long-shut-down.  Same for bars which used to see sixty customers for an evening. 

Germany and the Coronavirus: 28 March 2020

1.  Dead:   306 (Focus Numbers)    Infected:  48,354 (Focus Numbers).  Baden-Wurettemberg (SW of Germany) now leads with deaths (101), #2 in infections (9,729). 

2.  RTL reports that the German city of Minden has prepared a gym with cots, and if you are on the bad-boy list.....not cooperating on the quarantine rules, you will be forced into the gym (to be guarded). 

3.  Stuck in Australia presently?  ARD had a piece that discussed the problems of Germans who missed the opportunity to fly back.  Right now.....to get a flight arrangement from Sydney....it's 14,000 Euro per person (one-way, tourist-class).  Some Germans are desperate enough to do this....by taking out a loan. 

4. The tourist agency TUI is being granted a 1.8 billion Euro zero-interest loan....to help them get by during the crisis.  Thousands of Germans work for TUI throughout Germany in travel-arrangement shops.

5.  There is a suggestion that the stringent measures in place in Germany.....will be relaxed shortly after 20 April.  There is a belief that Germany is about to peak-out.

6.  Lufthansa is putting 31,000 employees on 'short-time' work (meaning they get a government check, for roughly two-thirds of their regular pay).  New extension tied to the 'short-work' concept.....going up to 12 months was the norm, but with the new rule....it's 24 months.  For most of the bottom-level of employees....it's marginally enough to pay rent and basic bills.  You'd have to go and find a 450-mini-job to sooth the financial issues. 

7.  360,000 applications for emergency support for German small business operations have been received by the government.  Funding will be sent out to help them survive.

8.  Within the state of Hessen.....500 Coronavirus individuals are in the hospitals but a minimum of 10,000 beds are still open and ready (if required).

9.  HR (regional public TV for Hessen) reported that around 60,000 individuals were part of the commercial soccer situation in Frankfurt, and they are suffering from the loss of the games. 

10.  Focus reports that in the Lombardy area of Italy (northern region)....51 Italian doctors are now dead from the virus.

11. 

Friday, March 27, 2020

Germany and the Corona Virus: 27 March 2020

1.  Dead: 266 (Focus numbers)  Infected: 43,071 (Focus numbers).  NRW still leads with deaths (82) and infections (10,872).  The eastern states of Germany?  Still at a very low rate for deaths and infections.

2.  The Minister of the Interior has ordered that the border is closed to asylum seekers.  So you attempt to approach the border and claim asylum.....you will be turned back to the European country that you approached from.

3.  Spain and the failed test results (9000).  Spain was one of those countries who got defective kits from China.  So far, the accuracy rate is around 30-percent. 

4.  Five German states have now accepted around 45 to 50 Italian patients with the Coronavirus.  Most are in the eastern region of Germany where the infected rate has not taken off. 

5.  The Berlin death rate from the virus?  .2-percent, which is awful low and probably begs questions.

6.  Explaining to a non-German how the home-quarantine program works if 'positive':  You call your doctor about possible symptoms and he asks questions.  Then he refers you to a central area that does the test.  The test comes back positive.....he gives you a slip for 14 days of house rest.  You only go to a hospital unit if you fit into the general profile: on blood pressure medication, having diabetes, frail and over the age of 65, heavy smoker, COPD, asthma sufferer, or having liver issues.  The vast majority of positives....stay home (probably 85-to-90 percent).  Hospital space is for serious cases only.

7.  The ban on public contact is being taken into court (NRW).  A German guy says he has the right to meet friends.  Might make for an interesting debate (legally).

8.  Fight broke out in a Frankfurt 'drug-store' yesterday....over toilet paper.  Customer was perceiving that they weren't going to be allowed their toilet paper, and they assaulted the clerk of the store.  Cops called.  Charges being investigated. 

9.  Some perceived shortages on masks and gowns within Hessen.  It's not to the 'real' problem yet but the logistical line is not that great.

10.  The Becks beer company is helping out by producing plain raw alcohol for the disinfectant folks.  Around 500k liters pumped so far....free for the medical folks.

Thursday, March 26, 2020

My Humble View of the German Economic View (With the Virus Landscape)

When you sit and view this.....groceries up and running, but the bulk of what you'd expect in the landscape?  Shut down.  Furniture stores, shoe shops, tattoo artists, barber shops, tire shops, clothing stores, etc.....all shut down.

My local post office is open, but the lady only allows two people into the building at a time.  The optical shop? Closed.  The dentist in the village?  Only open for emergencies.  The vet?  She has four chairs out in front of the door.....where you deliver the cat box to the clerk, and you stay outside.

The system built?  It was not engineered to have a four-month shut-down.  Just the mere suggestion that this would continue on through the end of summer?  I can't see it working that way.

Nightly, both public TV and private TV networks.....continue a theme of the Coronavirus, and pepping up people to feel positive about the leadership, the efforts being accomplished, and to just stay home.

With warmer weather approaching.....virtually no one is going to stay home.  But as you look around....pools are shut down....bowling ally's are not functional, and the simple act of going to your local bar to watch a soccer game on his big-screen TV?  That's out.

Companies giving up and putting on short-work?  Thats already happening, and some are discussing letting people go.  I could see 30-percent unemployment by late June.

Bluntly.....the idea of this continuing for another three months?  No, I can't see this as the workable solution.  People have mortgages and car payments to make.  To even suggest that the government would cover all of these expenses for 90 days?    It would involve a heck of a lot of debt to occur.

The death cycle?  The news people admitted from the 200-odd deaths so far in Germany....the average age is 81 years old.

Manpower shortages coming shortly for the retiree homes in Germany?  There's been several news pieces done in the last week where this topic got brought up.  A lot of the in-house employees were non-Germans, and they've left for their home-country.  There's fear over the virus, and how things might go.

So my forecast:

1.  A week or two after Easter....the government will suggest for people to go back to some normal work schedule.

2.  The airports?  I would suggest they stay shutdown until the end of May.  Border-crossing efforts?  Same way....end of May..

3.  Restarting everything?  I don't see the economy going back to 100-percent.  I also doubt that unemployment is normal for the remainder of 2020....with the end of the year still around 8 to 10 percent.

4.  It's not a bad period ahead....but if you were expecting a near-to-2019 era....it won't fit.

The Farm Worker Issue

The German Agricultural Minister (Klockner) said that she'd shortly have a conversation with the Interior Minister (Seehofer) to discuss options of the farm-worker issue.

Basically....sowing would start up in the next two weeks, and with the virus-ban on farm-workers coming in from Bulgaria and Romania.....it's a major mess developing. 

The suggested fix?  Well....prepare yourself.  Klockner says she wants all of the migrants in Germany to be given some encouragement to take the farm positions instead.  If they aren't working and on some government welfare-program....she wants them available in some way for the planting and harvesting season.

Seehofer?  He's said in public that he has no problem with this idea. 

Forcing them to participate?  Hard to say.  You might find half of the welfare-foreign cases willing to participate as long as there is some financial incentive attached to this.  Lets face it.....it's not a full-time job, and it would probably only last eight to twelve weeks. 

My guess is that if they got to keep their normal welfare check (as is) and the 8-to-10 Euro an hour deal flowed....giving them 400 Euro a week (taxed of course), then they'd all step up and appreciate the 'bonus' period. 

If this doesn't work?  There are quiet warnings that the German farm system wasn't made to handle a lengthy period of shut-down.  Certain things....like pork and beef production will continue on....same for wheat and corn.  But other crops require additional manpower at times....something is forbidden because of the virus.

ARD Movie/Mini-Series

Over the past week....public TV in Germany (ARD, Channel One) ran a five-piece mini-series called 'Our Wonderful Years'.  Roughly 45 minutes for each 'session'.

The network has broadened out in the past decade and done a number of 1930s, 1940s and 1950s era movies.  Most were historical in nature, with fiction heavily fitted into the era with some historical events making it interesting.

My wife (the German) dragged me into viewing this.  So after finishing up the last episode last night.....I'll make this review.

Most of the past historical movies that ARD did.....were fairly dramatic pieces and loaded with history.

This mini-series?  This was a long-winded drama piece where every single member of some upscale German family was screwed in a dozen different ways, and it was more of a soap opera....than anything else. 

Yes, it felt like some Dallas episode.  The three daughters of the industrialist?  This carried the weight of the entire mini-series and it was built for some 30 to 60 year old German woman.  I think most German guys would have dropped it by the second episode. 

But I lingered on because the background and vehicles used were five-star and really done in a great fashion to portray the late 1940s and early 1950s. 

Coronavirus 'Show' Ended

Back on Monday night, the RTL network in Germany tried to run a hour-long live reality show....on a couple of promi-Germans in a quarantine situation.  Initial success?  Yes, to roughly 3.3-million viewers.

Last night?  It crapped out at about 40-percent of the viewers from Monday night.  Network said enough, and wrapped it up.

The show was based strictly on medical folks handing out advice, and a couple of promi-folks.....that's it.  Maybe it made sense to the producers....but in public?  It just didn't connect. 

Just a Little Story

As WW I proceeded in the initial year or two....manpower in the UK was becoming a problem for industry and agriculture.  It's hardly ever discussed.

In the early part of 1916, Field Marshall Haig of the British Army came to this conclusion....the war wasn't going to end shortly, and the manpower shortage would be the bigger threat for the survival of the UK.  So he devised this nifty plan.....to bring in 21,000 Chinese laborers.  It had been done in the past, and no one suggested it was a bad idea.

By the conclusion of the war.....Indians, South Africans and Egyptians had been used for such labor.  Additionally, Chinese were brought in.

The French had gone along with this idea as well....with 50,000 Chinese assembled in France.  The contract?  Written and signed in May of 1916.

To get them to the UK....a ship route was developed, with the Chinese being initially delivered to a UK installation on the shores of western Canada (oddly enough....a quarantine station).  Metchosin was the name of the site.  They'd go through some exam, and be sent by railway cars across Canada....to leave by ship and arrive in the UK.  Some would go onto France from there. 

There's evidence to say that a fair number were there by the end of 2016, and by the end of 2017.....at least 50,000 were in France and Belgium....as part of the war-support effort.

The Chinese who came?  From various regions.....but it's noted that a fair number of those were from the Wuhan region.   Yeah....just an odd fact.

The Spanish flu?  In general, it's always discussed that it started up in January of 1918....however a number of folks have looked at reporting and concluded that it was already existing in early 1917. 

Back in the early 1990s.....a leading virus expert (Claude Hannoun) came to the opinion that the Spanish flu probably started out in China.  Enough facts to convince people?  No. 

So the odds that the Spanish flu started in China, instead of Kansas or Spain?  This becomes a matter of debate, with no clear evidence.

The suggestion that no real flu deaths occurred in China?  This story is often laid out for the 1917/1918 period.  But to be truthful.....a lot of people simply didn't collect data like this.  So facts aren't exactly existing. 

If the war hadn't existed?  The Chinese workers would not have been brought in.

The Spanish flu killing more than the WW I participants themselves?  That's another odd part of the story.  Death numbers for the flu go from 15-odd million to 50-odd million...depending on which historian you follow. 

Germany and the Coronavirus: 26 March 2020

1.  Dead:  207 (Focus numbers).    Infected:  37,179 (Focus numbers).  The state of Mecklenburg is at the bottom of the list with only 245 infected and no deaths. Why their low numbers?  Some suggest that this region (far northeast coastal region) has a fair number of folks infected, who haven't gone to a doctor or been tested.  But added to the odd list of things.....this is a former state of old DDR, which mandated the TB vaccinations for a period up to the late 1970s.  More research into this TB vaccination idea needs to be done, but it'd be at least a year or two before anyone might show concrete evidence (one way or another).

2.  NRW announced (via Focus article)....that 1,000 jail folks will be released shortly (ahead of schedule).  This is to help eliminate potential problems.

3.  Did Greta Thunberg have the Coronavirus or NOT?  Unknown.  What she says is that she 'thinks' she had it.....suggesting it was 'extremely likely', but beyond that....no tests.  Chance it was just plain regular flu?  Probably 50-percent.  But you really don't know until you take the test and it says 'positive'.

Maybe it's just me, but it's curious for the past twelve weeks....the Fridays for the Future crowd haven't really been heard or seen.  Without school going on and the demonstrations on Friday, the whole effort has gone to zero.  Chances of school going back into return before August?  It gets to a doubtful point.

4.  What is the Hantavirus?  Well, you might want to freshen up on the topic.  It's newest virus noted in China.  Death rate?  It's presently in the 30-percent of infected rate.  Where and how?  Well, it comes from rats, and if you have a fairly marginal sanitation situation or bad hygiene.....it's a possibility you could get it.  Odds of getting from China to Europe?  Near the zero point (hygiene standards are awful high in most European countries).  What's pointed out is that around 1,200 cases were reported in China from 2015 to 2019.

5.  Second test on Chancellor Merkel?  Negative.

6. There are two doctors in Germany (via a Focus report) who are asking for 'cured' Coronavirus folks to come and donate blood.....which will be used in some way for extremely ill patients.  The term 'killer-cells' is used.....hard to say if this will be successful or not.

7.  Piece on ARD (public TV) this morning involving medium-sized businesses in Germany.  The President of the Mittelstandsverbund (business association) Eckhard Schwarzer, says that folks running the garden centers, fashion stores, shoe stores.....are in fear of their future.  In simple terms, he's suggesting that it's days left before they fall.....not weeks.  If you were looking for a massive negative ripple effect, this might be one.

Wednesday, March 25, 2020

The Approaching Mask Shortage

There's a decent article that ARD (public TV, Channel One) produced on the virus masks being used by nurses around Germany.

The jest of the discussion is that the FFP-3 type masks (which most all nurses are now wearing) are in short supply.

The mask is made under the intended purpose of one-time use only.  I emphasize....this was the guidance given down by the RKI (Robert Koch Institute) and has been the normal guidance for years. 

Well....there just aren't that many masks existing.  So the new guidance is that you would re-use the mask. 

I should note the normal price for the FFP-3 mask....it's normally in the 39 to 50 cent range, depending on who made it and the middle-guy 'profits'.  So it's not an expensive item.

But the story here.....is that there just aren't that many masks being produced and the RKI guys have come to realize that part of the 'bottleneck'.

Anger brewing?  Well, among nurses, yes.  They don't see the hygiene requirements being met, if you used the same mask over an entire morning while dealing with 25 different patients.

The catch here.....if you read the whole article by ARD.....in a couple of weeks, a shortage will be obvious, and they won't be able to meet the demand.  So if you think re-using masks are bad idea.....go suggest going an entire day or entire week....with the same mask.

An issue for April?  One might go and see things being fairly chaotic by the end of April as the shortage is explained and a bulk-producer (within Germany) cannot be found.

Is the German Food Supply at 'Risk' Over Corona?

Well.....mostly no.

However, Focus (the news magazine) brought up an interesting article today, and it bears some review.  What is generally said now (by the Berlin leadership)....there is a manpower shortage existing and would effect some portions of the market chain later in the year.  The shortage itself?  It's mostly revolving around the planting and harvesting of agricultural goods.

The Agricultural Minister (Klockner, CDU) says that in May.....x-amount of non-Germans would be around and provide the normal 'help' to German farmers (coming out of Romania, Bulgaria, etc).  They'd ride a bus over....work for a few weeks for German farmers, and set the path for a successful farming season.  The cash wages would be a serious plus-up for these people.  This year?  It's not clear how things would work.

So there's this 11-point plan now openly discussed by the Agricultural Ministry and was published today:

1.  The food industry is to be recognized as a "systemically relevant infrastructure". Quarantine 'waivers' are to be used to prevent halts.

2.  A more open work-plan will exist for seasonal workers....going from the normal 70 days, to 115 days.  This will allow no contributions to social pensions.

3.  Temp-workers will now be possible in Germany, without state permission.  How exactly this will work.....is unknown.  Paperwork and 'stamps' used to be the norm for all temp-workers. 

4.  There aren't going to be any limits on earning 'extra additional' income.....until the end of the harvest season (end of Oct).  So if you were free on a Sunday from Farm #1, and found some farmer at Farm #2 who'd like to get 12 hours of work out of you.....the normal limits would not fall into play.

5.  There used to be a additional earnings limit for early retirees (in terms of the pension deal).  Well, if you are a farmer, that was completely eliminated for 2020.

6. Germany has a working-hours act which tends to limit how many man-hours you can get out of people.  There's going to be a waiver for this act created.

7.  Farmers having trouble meeting their leased land situation will be given some type of relief for 2020.

8.  The ministry has created a on-line 'help' platform called daslandhilft.de.  Basically, if you are a farmer and in desperate need of temp-help.....you can list the situation (say 20-hours per week, planting of crops, etc), and regular Germans can apply for the temp-work.  It's surprising how quick this was put up and is operational.

9.  Banking help will be provided to ensure the liquidity of agricultural properties. 

10.  Small farmers (up to ten employees) can now count on aid via the Coronavirus Act.

11.  All sixteen states will have the ability to rank priority and if farmers require additional food transport....the state will required to find ways to help.  The term 'unhindered' goods is mentioned here.....meaning that blocking roads isn't going to be allowed. 

The blunt side of this is that system operated pretty simply for decades, and never required much in terms of governmental acts.  Now?  To ensure the food supply.....things have to work or dire situations will develop. 

Germany and the Coronavirus: 25 March 2020

1.  Dead: 156  (Focus numbers).    Infected:  32,888 (Focus numbers).  One should note that the state of NRW has the bulk of infected (9,087) and deaths (54).

2.  The Bundesliga (1st and 2nd leagues of soccer in Germany) announced yesterday that all games are suspended until the end of April.  It would appear another evaluation will occur shortly before that point. The general talk?  They might have games for another six to eight weeks, with no fans.  Profit-wise, it's a mess for some clubs if that's the direction taken.

3.  The Robert Koch Institute (RKI, the premier virus medical group in Germany) is looking to hire a minimum of 500 folks for the job of 'containment scouts'.  Basically, you'd man phone-lines and hand out information.  Hiring opened up this week.

4.  I noticed a short comment that Rewe (major grocery operation) is putting up bonuses to their employees for the tough hours and virus threat potential.  Twenty-million Euro said to be in their package.

5.  Austrian prosecutor office opened up an investigation into this ski resort where all the 'jump-start' business started (in Ischgl, Austria).  Some people (political folks) might be facing charges, but it'd be at least a year down the line before you'd see anything occur.

6.  ARD (public TV) had a good piece over the people with RISKS: folks with high blood pressure, people with diabetes, people with chronic liver issues, people under cancer treatment (mostly from low immune system problems), heavy smokers (pack a day or more), and asthma or COPD sufferers.  If you have issues with pollen.....no increased risk noted by the experts.

7.  Death rate for Germans infected climbed to .5-percent yesterday, as noted by N-TV.  Still very low (but Austria is almost at same rate).  Italy stands at 9.5-percent of those infected.....died.  Spain is at 6.8-percent.

8.  There's an interesting story over at N-TV about alcohol producers flipping the switch and making disinfectant instead of booze.  Three of those mentioned are: Jägermeister, Klosterfrau, Pernod Ricard.  Almost all of this is 'donated' to regional hospital groups.

9.  Lot of delivery companies are taking newer measures, to ensure less contact with the customers and the guys making the deliveries.

10.  If you pull up a map of France and look at regions with the infection rate....lot around Paris and whole east of country.....then very limited number on far western side of the country (rural regions).  Oddly corresponds with far western part of Germany (NRW in particular).

11. Things are getting awful strict in Italy....if you have been tested positive, and told to stay home, but violate the order....up to five years in prison can be the court-order.  Just at the minimum level on that....is one year.

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Why the .4-Percent on Germans Infected Passing Away?

Various people ask this question....no real solid solution/answer exists.  I'll offer these observations:

1.  Most non-Germans (Americans, Brits, New Zealanders, etc) will definitely say after two years in the country....that Germans are hyper about sanitation and hygiene.  I might go and rate the Japanese slightly higher, but Germans are often consumed with good hygiene habits. 

It's like discussing food poisoning in Germany and finding it's an extremely rare thing. 

When you go and visit a German house for the first time....they kinda let you know where the WC is located, and on occasion even point at the soap dispenser in particular.

2.  Distancing.  Even before this topic came up in the past month....Germans often keep their distance.  It was already a common practice except at sports events and fests.  You step up to a line (say in 2018), and there was already half-a-meter or more of distance between you and most other Germans. 

3.  Older Germans reside in rest-homes.  Unlike Italy or Spain....most Germans who are getting to a fragile point and not capable of much walking....went into rest-homes rather than the son's house.  So they didn't hang out at cafes, grocery shops, etc....in their home town.

4.  Germans and the short list of friends.  Germans in general, will tell you that they have a very short list of 'good' friends (maybe less than three).  When they socialize for the most part....one of those three will be in the social 'moment'.  So if you asked a German about their contact list, and went to the friend....other than fellow train-passengers, office-coworkers, or the grocery shop personnel....it's a fairly small list of contacts.

5.  When Germans get a 'whiff' of illness....they stay home.  Unlike the normal American attitude of a cold being a 'joke'....with most of easily going into work, I would suggest that Germans hit that sick-leave 'button' pretty easily. 

You can ask some Germans and they will suggest they use twenty-five days a year for sick-leave. 

So there is no real answer to this fairly low .4 death rate.  Most of the dead are over 70 years old, and most were either frail, with diabetes, CPD, asthma, blood pressure medication, etc.  Maybe mathematically.....there are fewer Germans with this health situation, compared against the Italians or Spanish. 

Germany and the Coronavirus: 24 March 2020

1.  Dead:  119 (Focus numbers)    Infected:  28,981  (Focus numbers).  Just in the Wiesbaden-City area, there are now 94 on the infected list (Wiesbadenaktuell numbers).

2.  Focus reported this morning that a group of infected and seriously affected Italians were flown into Saxony yesterday, for treatment in German hospitals.  Total numbers?  Less than 20 at this point.  Some German hospitals (particularly in the eastern region) aren't that burdened at this point.

3.  Celebrating in any sense (your birthday, your retirement from the office, etc) is seriously frowned upon now in German society.  In most communities, catering operations have completely shut down....exceptions are for retirement homes or medical establishments.

4.  We are in the period where high school graduation exams (the Abi) would occur.  HR (regional Hessen TV) brought up this topic.....that the schools are proceeding ahead with the test measure.  Lot of criticism by instructors and kids over the test right now.  Main problem is that some kids will do badly because of Coronavirus 'fright', and extra exams might be required.

5.  Report by Focus this morning over Italian soldiers arriving at some homes which were occupied by older Italians, and finding that the residents were dead.  No numbers given, but one might suggest it will probably trigger a massive house by house review in the northern Italy region, to settle worries.

6.  First test done on Chancellor Merkel.....results are negative.  She will continue the 14-day self-quarantine period.  Spahn, the Health Minister, is the face that Germans see nightly and has been that way for past three weeks. 

7.  Last night, RTL (commercial German TV) ran a live quarantine-promi-reality show.  Yeah, it's pretty crazy. 

Basically four prominent Germans (entertainers) that either have the virus or are in some self-quarantine deal.  Participants used Skype (at least it seemed that way) and on entertainment 'value'.....I might give it a '3' at best.  Their focus however, is to show everyone is united and cooperating....thus encouraging regular people to do the quarantine if necessary. 

This will probably be adding suggestions for adults to do while in this situation.  No idea how long this 'show' will last.  It would seem like you'd have to go and find fresh new quarantine entertainment-participants every ten days or so. 

8.  I noticed some survey unit in the US has gone to adding the news media to the job-approval rating 'gimmick', and they got a lesser rating than Trump during this Coronavirus period. 

9.  Some suggestion going on for an emergency G-20 summit (via video only).  France's Macron is calling for this.  Hard to say if there's anything to be gained....other than getting headline space for a day.  You'd just have 20 airheads saying it's 'bad', and you could have gotten that same analysis from 20 Bavarian farmers. 

10.  Toilet-paper shortage?  Still continuing.  But I imagine at this point....virtually everyone has a six-month supply in their basement.  I looked in my basement room, and the wife seems to have a stash worth eight months. I should add though....the kid (29) is always behind on shopping duties and he'll probably consume a quarter of our stash. 

11.  It's a topic rarely discussed.....but ARD (public TV, Channel One) brought it up this morning.....a lot of the employees of the German retirement home system....are eastern Europeans (Poles, Czechs, Hungarians, Bulgarians, etc), and there is a suggestion that some are fearful of staying in Germany.  Number working in the system?  Near 300,000.  The commentary suggests that a fair number are afraid of the situation and want to return home.  If they leave?  Well....a massive problem that the Germans really can't handle.

What might come out of this?  I would suggest a bonus deal for each three months you stay on....a 1,500 Euro deal (tax-free). 

12.  The German state of NRW is drafting up a list of fines for Coronavirus 'bad-boys'.  N-TV carried a good bit of this discussion.  Making an unauthorized visit to a retirement home or hospital?  800 Euro fine.  Having a public meeting of more than two people?  200 Euro fine.  Holding a public bar-b-q?  250 Euro fine.  Running a bar?  5,000 Euro fine. 

Public reaction to this? Mute at this point.  Most Germans (I would put the number at 90-percent) are cooperating with the ban on activities.  However, with spring in the air, I'd say in about two weeks that people will be openly violating the bans (if they still exist).

13.  N-TV reports that the average age of Coronavirus patients (in hospitals) is  45 (RKI numbers given to them).  Kids and teenagers don't appear to get on the hospital list much.  Average age of the death crowd in Germany?  82. 

This would bring up a discussion over the 119 dead so far in Germany.....which the massive bulk of them are over the age of 70.

14.  If you do pull up the N-TV graphic map.....eastern Germany (old DDR states) are the least infected area of Germany.  Western states (particularly NRW, Bavaria and Baden-Wurttemberg are the most infected.

Rural features figuring into this?  A number of folks have the opinion that eastern Germany is sparsely populated, when compared against NRW or Hessen.  Having traveled in the region....to some degree, I would go along with this.

15.  Corona-stress.  New word popping up and being used by Germans.

What I'll say is that several segments of German society is having stress-related issues.

If you work in the medical establishment, you probably are pulling 45 hours a week minimum right now, and the idea of a vacation occurring in the next six months is zero.

If you work in a company that sent you home and is in serious financial trouble....you got stress.

If you watch German news six hours out of the day.....virtually every minute is consumed with Corona news, and you are fed up with it.

If you are at home with your kids, and no school anticipated for another four weeks minimum....you got stress.

For some Germans, serious drinking or medication issues are going to arrive by mid-summer if the virus continues on. 

Monday, March 23, 2020

Shot Story

So this one odd Coronavirus statistic stands out.....the three states of Germany with the highest infection rate.....all in the western part of the country.  The states with the lowest rate of infection....all on the eastern side of the county.  Coincidence?

Someone brought it up today....up to the mid-1970s....old DDR (East Germany) mandated a Tuberculous prevention shot. 

Any substance to the TB shot?  No.  There are no studies or evidence to connect the dots on this.  It's just rather odd that infection rates haven't really been seen in the eastern area of the country.

Begging for more questions?  Maybe....but it might be years before someone presents a paper, and shows some proof that the shot has some prevention angle even fifty years later in society. 

Youngest German to Die From the Coronavirus?

This got brought up briefly today on the news.  A 54-year-old German from Rosenheim (an hour south of Munich).

What's noted here is that the guy did not have the typical 'issues' (blood pressure medication, diabetes, TB, asthma, etc).

Background?  Nothing much is said other than he was a musician.

At 80-plus dead....up until this point, the youngest was 67 years old. 

Probably will be an autopsy done.  Has to be a contributing factor to the story.

Sunday, March 22, 2020

Germany and the Coronavirus: 23 March 2020

1.  Infected:  24,819 (Focus numbers)   Dead:  97 (Focus numbers).  Oddly enough, Berlin-City has barely edged over the 1,000 infected point, and only one death attributed to a resident of the city.

2.  Foreign Ministry of Germany has announced some deals being worked out via the EU....to bring a bunch of stranded Europeans back to their home-countries.  N-TV covered a good piece on this.  100,000 Germans in this group and another 100,000 from various other European countries.  Bill for this?  Unknown....but has to be in the tens of millions to arrange 'private' flights with the airline community.

3.  N-TV put up a great economic piece, talking over the potential for bankruptcy for the next couple of months.   Highly recommend a read of it.  Could be a lot of German companies who don't survive this period, unless the government comes to rescue them.

4.  Death rate in Germany at .4-percent among those who are infected, while the rate is 4-percent in most other countries?  Yes.  No rhyme or reason.  I will admit, a higher percentage of older Germans are put into retirement homes, while in most countries.....the family would have the older member in their house.  Beyond that, there is no logical reason.

Science does say that the virus stays on a counter-top for up to 24 hours.....unless you clean or wipe it.  Maybe that obsession about keeping things tidy does pay off in Germany.

5. Chancellor Merkel in quarantine?  Yes, only because a person has it who she had contact with.  So she's out for two weeks?  Yep.  A big deal?  No....she'll work from home, and I doubt if anyone will really miss her that much.  The Health Minister (Spahn) is the guy who appears on TV a dozen times a day anyway.  Back-up Chancellor?  The SPD guy serving as Finance Minister.

Her age?  65, so that puts her in the rough category if she does have the virus.  Potential diabetes?  For the past year, several things have popped up to suggest that she has some type or form of diabetes.  That would another negative factor to the situation.

6.  Barbers and hair-dressers forbidden to open?  Yep.  They will be shut-down for at least two weeks.  Same for tattoo shops and cosmetic operations.

7.  There's a brief note that popped up this morning.....down in the state of Baden-Württemberg....a regional lab that does the virus sample evaluations has had a problem with roughly 2,000 samples. Basically, they will toss those....contact the folks who thought they'd get good news and find out that another sample is required and another day of testing is required.

Where I Should Be Today

Yesterday (Sat), with eight months of planning in the works, I would have driven to Frankfurt, and boarded a plane at 1:45 PM to Copenhagen....spent 27 hours on the ground there, and then flown onto Tokyo for 15 days of Japan.

In fact, up until five weeks ago, it was still an absolute 'green-light' to continue but at that point in time....I tried hard to convince my German wife to give up on the idea because of the virus potential.  She's German, and changing her mind is like dealing with a 3,000 pound Brahma Bull.  It wasn't going to happen.  We were going, period.

I should note here.....I had the decently priced airline tickets....bought in June of 2019 in my hands.  I had the hotel reservations done, and completely paid.

Eight days ago, the reality set into a new direction.  It made no sense to go.

The airline (to be unnamed) had cancelled a number of flights.  They made it into a problem.  Lufthansa....the airline to get me into Copenhagen?  They cancelled that morning flight, and gave me a afternoon flight.  Things were real questionable at that point.

Then came the Danish government....all NON-Danes are forbidden entry.  Didn't matter if I was walking, driving, riding a train, or arriving by airplane.

I finally approached the wife and said this won't work.  She finally relented and agreed.

The problem remaining? Cancelling the flight, getting that money back, and the hotel issues.

Well....the hotels were in a position where it was 7 days away, and I could fully cancel.  Not a penny lost.

The airline?  You had to call them, and go into a one to two hour waiting period....before getting to a live person.  That was the real pain.  So finally, I suggest that they can't get me into Copenhagen, and they agreed.  Full refund?  Yes, a complete refund.

So it is a total of 100 man-hours of effort to plan this trip, and get exceptional prices.  Every penny is returned.  And other than 25 Euro spent on two stupid travel books.....I'm out nothing at this point.

This morning?  Well....I should be getting up in Copenhagen, and flying out to Tokyo at 3:45 PM this afternoon.  The thought has been on my mind.

The rest of 2020?  Well....here's the amusing thing.  There is this stupid cruise I agreed to, and reservations are done (from the summer of 2019).  I would leave from Amsterdam in seven weeks.  Will it continue on? I have no idea.  Getting out of it?  Same worry.

Germany and the Coronavirus: 22 March 2020

1.  Infected: 22,128 (Focus numbers)   Dead: 76 (Focus numbers)

2.  ZDF (public TV, Channel Two) had a piece from yesterday....talking over grocery operations trying to encourage customers to use bank cards more than cash. No one says it's mandatory yet, but you get the impression that some grocery operations might go to that in the next couple of weeks.

3.  ZDF did produce a decent 40-minute piece (dated from Friday night) which talked about changes (challenges) to the general public.  I would recommend the piece (all in German though): at this site.

4.  Dead in Spain: 1,400.  Still no real way to explain why the bigger number there, against Germany.

5.  One grocery manager has suggested a unique solution for toilet paper shortages.....he wants anyone buying a second package of toilet paper....to pay a surcharge.  He says five extra Euro for the 2nd package, and ten extra Euro for the 3rd.   (from N-TV).  Another guy suggested the idea that you would not be allowed to purchase more toilet paper, until you produced the 'empties'.  You can imagine this deal where you walk in with eight empties......to get to your one package of paper.

6.  The government fund to save German companies.  Right now (says N-TV) the fund will be around 600 billion Euro.  Enough?  No one can say for sure.

7.  Turkey went to a different kind of 'ban'.....if you are over 65 or have a serious condition (diabetes)....you stay in the house, period.  Everyone else?  Normal life-style.  Maybe it makes sense (don't tell Erdogan I think he's right for a change).

8.  RKI (the German Robert Koch Institute, the folks who handle the virus medical business in Germany)....is advertising for temp-help/support personnel.  If you were unemployed.....it might be your chance for real work.

9. 800 Italians died in the past 24 hours.

10.  It's an odd note....some science guru dragged out a 2007-science report that indicated that this bat-virus was going to be a big deal one day.  So already back in the 2006/2007 era....someone sat there, analyzed this, and predicted the outcome.  They even said the variety of bat that this would come from. 

11. There is a report from FAZ that the folks who make disinfectants in Germany are a bit worried.  What they are generally saying....is that the raw materials for the making of general disinfectant.....is NOT unlimited, and perhaps in the next two weeks.....some type of 'bottle-neck' will start to occur.

A big deal?  Well....for the hand sanitizer stuff, some advice.  You can make it yourself (only two ingredients) and I don't see that being something to worry about.  You can make enough for a whole month for a family of four, for less than 20 Euro (probably would have cost you 35 to 50 Euro for the normal fancy stuff). 

As for the disinfectant?  There are various alternate paths....like using vinegar-developed products.  Those folks would tell you that 'hell' could freeze over before they run out of their raw materials. 

12.  Finally, the chatter over more public bans?  There's supposed to be an assessment from the Berlin leadership based on what the cops saw from Saturday.   A Sunday meeting will occur, and they could go to some drastic far extreme position.  Or they could let things be as they are. 

It's an odd discussion because weather for Saturday was crappy throughout most of Germany.  Most folks stayed in their house or did grocery shopping. 

Here's the thing....spring is probably about two weeks away, and folks are going to be out and sitting in parks (consuming beer).....if it gets up to 15C and nice weather.  This whole ban chatter business won't work when that 'reality' occurs. 

Saturday, March 21, 2020

A Moment of Toilet Paper Chatter

I noticed this story off of Focus this morning.....reporter who'd finally hit rock-bottom on toilet paper (to his final few sheets), and he went looking (while doing a story on this adventure).

So he eventually gets to Lidl.  For the benefit of non-Germans, I'd describe it as a bare-bones grocery operation, which sells things at discount prices.  If you wanted fine wine, premium spaghetti sauce, or personalized butcher-chatter....this is NOT the place for you.  If you can find a Lidl employee standing around....doing nothing much...he's likely to be fired by the end of the shift.

Somehow, this reporter found an employee (the actual branch manager stocking the shelves himself), and put the question to them....why can't I get toilet paper.

The response?  It was blunt and direct.....the manager explains that he has 2,000 people a day coming in and everyone wants toilet paper. 

This particular morning, he opened the cash registers at 7:03 AM.  Then the 'rush' started.  As he described it.....even looking at Christmas and Easter 'rushes'....this rush is way bigger. 

Odds of this going away?  No one ever says much.  Personally, I could see this active-buying going on for a minimum of three more months, and some folks having 500 rolls of toilet paper stuffed into the attic or garage. 

Note: at the end of this Lidl adventure....the journalist did get one package of toilet paper from the manager. 

Virus and School Discussion

This came up in the morning, and it's an interesting topic from HR (my regional public TV network).  The subject?  Schools cancelled because of the virus and kids being given home-work to complete at home, with the parents helping.

The state advisory board is now worried because a fair number of the kids are trying to accomplish home-work, and the parents are not geared at that level. The hint?  Various math and science assignments are way beyond most German parents.

My humble belief is that the 'experts' are trying not to embarrass the parents, but they have a reasonable point.  This school cancelled business can operate for a short period of time.  I can't imagine them trying to do this....all the way to summer vacation, and then restart in August.  It'd be almost a quarter-year of school time missing and half the kids not really advancing like you'd expect.

Germany and the Coronavirus: 21 March 2020

1.  Infected:   19,741 (Focus numbers).   Dead: 56 (Focus numbers).

2.  ARD reports that it's around 96,000 Germans outside of the country who desire to return, with flights 'unsure' at this point.  I should note that around 300k to 400k Germans reside outside of the nation and the bulk aren't that excited to return (for whatever reason).

3.  Verdi union guys calling for all barber-shops in Germany to be shut-down.

4.  German trains to Switzerland...ONLY go now to Basel (that's it). You get off there and deal with border-crossing problems.  Don't go expecting them to greet you or allow you into Switzerland.

5.  Some serious curfew chatter going on in the state of the Pfalz.  Nothing for sure yet.  One extreme view is that you couldn't be out in your car going somewhere, like a bar or club.  If working, you'd require a note from your boss to indicate the job and hours.

6.  Only two Germans dead so far from the Pfalz....both in their 80s.

7.  New shortage?  Strangely enough, here we are at the end of winter, with most people having used a lesser amount of heat than in normal years.  What's reported is that oil salespeople are getting calls everyday.....to refill and restock.  Pricing on oil?  It's down a good bit from a year ago.

8.  Last night via ARD/ZDF (the two public TV networks)?  Two 'extra' segments to hype and discuss the virus.  I would suggest three themes:

- Curfew-Curfew-Curfew: Almost all of the Premier-Presidents (state governors) appeared in anger over young people showing up in parks, sipping beer and chilling out.....instead of staying in their homes.

- Scientists talking over the statistics and developments.

- Some virus-victims talking over the nature of their hospital stay.

Lot of effort to reassure folks, but serious frustration that socializing is going on.

9.  Focus reporting that nine retirees died in one single nursing home in Wurzburg (Bavaria).  Hint that all occupants in the home have the virus. 

10.  Hessen discussion over violations of curfew?  Well, nothing concrete but the chatter is that a single violation could amount to 100 Euro to 300 Euro (depending on how severe your action was).

11.  More than 600 deaths were reported in a 24-hour period in Italy.  Peak has yet to be reached.

Final observation: I would suggest that a 'peak-period' for Germany is still a minimum of three weeks away.  This socializing business is hurting the peak expectation and making this worse in the end.  But you can ask yourself.....how long can you play 'inside-the-cabin' before getting nuts?  Spring is right around the corner and it'll make this worse. 

Friday, March 20, 2020

More Regulations

Announced in the past hour....the state of Hessen has now decided on additional measures.

Starting tomorrow (Sat) at noon....restaurants and pubs will be fully closed.

No dates given, but I would assume for at least two weeks. Pick-up or delivery by pizza places?  Unknown.  Most are suggesting that will be allowed.

Harsh situation but situation probably calls for a short period of this action.  I will suggest this....folks will go to grocery stores and buy bulk beer....then drink out on the street or around city parks, if they can't drink at the pub or bar. 

New Hessen Rule: No Crowds More Than Five

Yep, handed down today, because of the virus.  At any public location, no more than five people mingling together.

This includes bus waiting points, bench areas around the train station, street corner, park, etc.

I sat there for ten minutes contemplating how this would work.

Added to this....you have to stand 1.5 meters away from other customers, so my Saturday bakery-shop run will be interesting if a dozen people are ahead of me, and the line extends out into the main street. 

Likely runs for all of March, and into April.  Just shaking my head.  Hopefully no funerals to attend during this period....would require the whole cemetery to handle fifty people. 

How I Imagined the Apocalypse

Years and years ago, I had this image and fantasy in my mind of the woeful days of the Apocalypse, and how bad things would be.

Gas would rationed to just 40 liters every two weeks.

You'd be limited to a kilo of beef once a month.

You'd get a quarter of the detergent that you needed for a normal month of washing.

You'd be only able to buy Bitburger beer (the worst of the worst).

You'd have 24-hour around the clock patriotic music or movies from the 1950s/1960s.

Your electricity would only be on from 6 PM to 4 AM.

McDonalds would only be selling plain hamburgers (no pickles or mustard).

That was my idea of a Apocalypse.  So in 2020, with the Wuhan-virus or Coronavirus, this is present Apocalypse:

1.  Toilet paper sales are almost non-existent....even if you were to accept the old-fashioned train-station sandpaper style toilet paper....there's nothing there.

2.  Canned goods are mostly left to the ultra-expensive premium soups that are quiet delightful.  It's the cheap stuff that you can't find.

3.  Bars and pubs are shut down at 6 PM....which leaves you in the company of your spouse for the remaining five hours of the day.

4.  No one seems to want to stand within 1.5 meters of you....even if they are asking about your rash-condition.

5.  Trains are marginally running, and shockingly enough.....all the toilets onboard these trains are suddenly starting to function perfectly.

6.  Brothels are completely shutdown, and the only people that seem to really care are the pimps and bordello owners.

7.  You are getting around 16 hours a day from the two public TV networks some news on Corona.  Suddenly, your regional politician seems to know something about something, which is a shock to you.

8.  The chatter about summer vacations and the bragging to some exotic trip planned for a remote part of the Amazon jungle?  That has all of a sudden disappeared.

9.  Kids are freaking out.....no school?  Maybe all the way to August?

10.  Suddenly, folks are washing their hands now.....fifteen to twenty times a day?

It's just not how I imagined the Apocalypse.

Germany and the Coronavirus: 20 March 2020

1. Infected:  14,995 (Focus data derived from Health Ministries of each German state).   Dead: 44.   Differing numbers from the RKI folks?  Yes, and this begs questions.

2.  The curfew in Freiburg.  It will run from 21 March to 3 April.  Basically, you are limited to the house/apartment that you live in.  You cannot roam in any public place.  You can attend doctor appointments, buy groceries, and go to work.  Beyond that....nothing.  If you go out, you have to keep 1.5 meters of distance from people you encounter.  Parties with guests?  Forget about that idea.

3.  Netflix says it'll 'throttle' data volume in Europe over the next month, to relieve 'the networks'.  It's a curious problem....you've sent all these people home, and there's nothing much to do, with mostly crap on regular public-TV, so  it'd be the perfect time to watch five or six entire TV series off Netflix.

4.  Several incidents have occurred this week at grocery stores, as clerks tried to limit customers purchases of toilet paper.  To some extent....it's actually gotten violent, with physical actions involved.

5.  ARD (public TV) reported in a poll that one out of three Germans simply aren't that worried about the virus or the hype.

6.  G7 Conference that was supposed to be in the US in June?  Cancelled.

7.  Bundesliga economic woes?  The German soccer league is in serious trouble.  Various clubs won't survive this period (games shut-down) as it stands right now.   N-TV had a good article over this.

You could very well reach a point by mid-summer where certain clubs have folded up and can't participate, and you elevate 2nd league teams up.....only because you have empty slots and no premier teams in a financial condition to participate.

8.  From the 2,000-odd deaths in Italy for the virus....ONLY five of them were under the age of forty, and ALL five had serious other ailments in the mix.  N-TV reports this today.  198 of these deaths were people over the age of 90.  1,500-odd Italians were between the ages of 70 and 89.

Almost fifty-percent of the dead Italians had three or more illnesses in the recent past.  The mix of blood pressure medications/problems and diabetes figures heavily into the death count.

No major studies done of the Germany numbers yet, but I might go and expect the same type of data....older folks and secondary issues.

Thursday, March 19, 2020

It Might Be Interesting

Someone came up today and talked over a Italian study which has been hurriedly done over the dead folks from the virus.  It's something I've been wondering about and virtually no one from the news media has chatted on this subject.

So....an odd fact (as of data from collected up until the 2nd week of March)....the average age of the Italian dead, is 79.5. 

Yep....that's a shocker.

So adding to this, roughly 99-percent of the Italian dead were people who had a second condition in play (diabetes, high-blood pressure, etc).  One in three were diabetic.  One in three had heart problems.  One in four had AFib (blood circulation issues).

Up until 10 days ago, virtually all of the Germans who'd died from the virus....were over the age of 65. 

If confronted with this data....would it change the perception of the public?  I'm guessing it would be a big issue.

So my logical question is....in Wuhan....from all of those dead folks....were they mostly all over 65, or with blood-pressure issues? 

Entire Runway at Frankfurt Shut-Down

For those who weren't aware.....Frankfurt operates four runways. 

At some point on Monday, the management folks were approached and asked by Lufthansa to give up parking space for several hundred of their planes.  The Airport thought about it, and ended up shutting down the NW runway entirely, and parking all of these jets there.

Affect on operations?  Zero.  The vast majority of flights at the airport have been cancelled for the foreseeable future.

Normally, from my house (within 30 km of the airport), I'd hear various flights overhead (particularly at 6 AM).  The last week? It's been fairly quiet. 

This Curfew Chatter

Among the top ten German chatter topics with the Coronavirus....is this idea of a curfew coming.

Nationally, they don't have the authority to make it occur.  State-by-state or by city-level?  Yes, there are various ways that the state constitutions allow a curfew to be implemented. 

Why start this chatter?  Basically, we've had a warm spring period over the past month (throughout most of Germany), and people are gathering outside (yes, drinking beer, sharing gossip, and engaged in conversation over the virus).

This group-meet thing is now hyping up the possibility of more infections.

If they make the curfew happen?  I think most German cities are safe for the next week or so.  By late March?  I would suggest a two-week curfew period is likely to occur in most all German states. 

Effect on the cops?  Well....they really don't want to go and be curfew enforcers.  People with beer can be confrontational.

If you don't do it....you could have thousands of people gathered in the late afternoon/early evening....consuming beer, and potentially getting the virus.  Would Germans obey the curfew?  Maybe one out of three....the rest would just laugh over the curfew chatter and socialize anyway. 


Corona-Parties

In the past week, this social 'gimmick' has started up in Germany.

Basically, a bunch of young people will stage a backyard bar-b-q with plenty of booze and beer.  The parties go from a couple of folks, to well over a hundred. 

In the real sense of the word, they are violating the general guidelines of the isolation or non-social contact being preached by German politicians.

So cops are getting called out.  One story appeared this morning in the press....talking about a couple of parties from last night in Freiburg, where cops were called and frustrated party-goers refused to leave or halt the party.

Here's the thing....with the university operations and local schools shut-down.....what exactly do young Germans have to do, especially with warm temperatures occurring?  Drink and party.

Against the law?  There's not exactly any laws written for this.  If your village or town does a curfew, then that law would be effective, and the police could bust up the party very easily.

This weekend?  Well, regionally here where I live...it's cooling off big-time (some areas will be below freezing at night).  That might help for a few days, to screw up the party atmosphere. 

If You Try to Buy Hand-Sanitizer in Germany

Over the past three weeks, if you went to any German grocery or drug-store, it's just about impossible to find any hand-sanitizer.  If they do put a box up on the shelf, it's usually sold out in a matter of an hour or so. 

My wife did find a bottle one afternoon....over-priced (in my opinion) at 15-Euro.  The funny thing is that I could have bought the same sized container at the US commissary for $6 back in December (I bought my usual winter assortment of two bottles at that point....never thinking about the virus potential).

Trying to buy it via Amazon?  A simple 7-to-9 Euro bottle (the pricing back in January), now runs for 13-to-17 Euro, with the promise that it'll be delivered in roughly four weeks.  If you read through the Amazon-wording, the stuff is coming from beyond Germany, and the EU.  In one case, it was manufactured in Turkey (heavily over-priced), another case that I noticed.....it was a Chinese product listed for around 40 Euro for a 500 ML container with a delivery-date of late-April. 

So here's the thing, for my German associates in this period of woe.  You can basically make the stuff yourself.  Buy a 1,000 ML container of Glycerin and a 1-liter container of Isopropylalkohol (total price for around 22 Euro).  Both are made within Germany and easily purchased via Amazon or any of local chemical shops.  Mine was delivered in two work-days. 

So the mix for this is 2-parts Isopropylalkohol and 1-part Glycerin.  For 'flavor' or smell....you can throw in a dash of vanilla or cinnamon.  I think most don't care.

Acquire a plain non-description plastic bottle, and put your home-made solution in this.  Shake the stuff up, and there you go.  It's the same stuff as you'd pay 20 Euro for a bottle at today's rates, for about one-third the cost. 

Effectiveness?  Well, if you read through the science stuff....most all hand-santizers offered for sale are 99.999-percent effective against the virus 'bugs'.  So even the stuff you make.....is not 100-percent, but it's almost at the same level as the 99.999-percent stuff that you'd buy normally. 

Note: Isopropylakohol is not for 'play' and don't smoke or light up matches near the stuff.   

Germany and the Coronavirus: 19 March 2020

1.  As of the closure of yesterday (18 Mar), the number of infected in Germany rests at: 8,198 (RKI numbers, roughly a thousand new cases over the previous 24 hours).  Number dead: 13 (WHO numbers).  I should note, N-TV is reporting 27 dead. 

2.  Chancellor Merkel's speech last night?  It was carried widely, at different times (taped).  It was the 'get-real', 'stand-tall' type of speech.  She did note that this is the worst that Germany has faced since WW II (some Germans would argue about that description).

3.  How the Italian Coronavirus became a crisis?  There's been a study done in Italy and a curious landscape has emerged on the massive nature of infected and death in Italy.

So for those who aren't aware of the Italian 'tradition'......at a certain age, grandma and grandpa move into the parents large home....usually getting a small studio apartment on the first floor.  You might actually have both sets of grandparents in the building.  On the second floor would be the parents (usually in their 40s to 50s).  On the third floor, would be the two to three kids (going to school or apprentice work, still unmarried at age 23).

So the kids leave the home, often doing apprentice work and traveling by train to the 'big' city.

In the Lombardy region, a lot of the kids were going to Milan....working and socializing. In the midst of this, they brought the virus back to the home-town, and the house.

So in this average Italian home, say grandmother A, grandfather A, and grandmother B....they mingled with the kids at dinner in the evening, and got sick.  Because of their advanced age, and perhaps frail condition.....two out of the three (statistically speaking) ended up dead within three weeks.

Their age, and this Italian practice of keeping the grandparents in the home.....played against them.

Imagine a village of 12,000 people, and 400 homes in this situation, with two to three individuals in each home dead inside of four weeks.  There would be funerals on a daily basis, and everyone in that town would know five to ten people who were dead from this circumstance.

In the German sense?  It won't happen this way because they typically shuffle the grandparents off to old-folks home, or the grandparents try to live independent on their own as long as possible. So statistically, Germany will never reach the same level of infection and death, as Italy.

4.  Differing numbers of dead?  I've come to notice that various news sources have different numbers.  I prefer the RKI numbers because typically....it's cited as the most reliable.

5.  The grocery operations of Rewe, Penny and Aldi has said 'no' to being open on Sundays.  A waiver now exists for open hours to occur.

6.  Full restrictions on entry into Germany.  If you are German, or EU member citizens....you can enter.  Anyone else?  Forbidden entry, and you return to your country.

7.  A Bavarian city has gone to the full-up curfew status.  You are only allowed to leave the home if you are shopping, going to a medical appointment, or work.  Nothing else is allowed (even walking the dog is frowned upon).

8.  Only 5-percent of Lufthansa flights are being carried out at this point.

9. German farmers are starting to worry because this is the season for strawberrys to be plants (along with asparagus).  You'd do the work with mostly guest-workers from Romania.  The trend says that only one-third of the typical work-force is showing up.

10.  Some suggestions are coming up (NOT by virus experts or doctors, but by politicians) that the number of infected might be ten times what the official numbers show.  Proof?  None.  But this is being chatted about in public forums.  Realistically?  If you had the typical three symptoms for a flu, and just average 'harsh'.....you might just stay home and run it out, and never be tested.  Politicians might be right but no way to prove this idea.

11.  Wiesbaden finally set up a central testing facility in the city.  Here's the thing....you have to call your doctor first and answer roughly five to eight questions.  If he is satisfied, he puts your name and insurance 'number' into the system, and you are approved to be at the testing facility.  You drive up.....give a sample, and drive away.  Results by the next day.  Attempting to show up and bluff your way through a sample, without the doctor's approval?  Zero chance.

12.  There is some 'chatter' going on (mostly by political folks) that Germany needs a 'ministry of truth' to combat fake news.....during this crisis period.  Personally, I would  suggest that if you want to move in this direction, you might as well shutdown social media, blogs, and all alternate news sites.  Yes, just allow the 'ministry of truth' to tell you what you need to know, and accept this as the norm of society.

I put this idea in the same category of having a 'ministry of temptation' where you'd attempt to halt bawdy women, lustful situations, lewd behavior, and lascivious settings.  Women would be forbidden from wearing halter tops, tube tops, and 5-inch heels.  Men would never present any immoral suggestions.  Life would be simple....pure....and wholesome.

The same could be said for the idea of a 'ministry of alcohol consumption' (maxing out at 2-percent beer/wine), or a 'ministry of accident control' (limiting the speed of cars to 60 kph).

Wednesday, March 18, 2020

Criminals, Corona, and Germany

You have to laugh, but there are three stories that came out today, which tied into the criminal community supporting the 'mess'.

So over in Bitburg, some folks were calling around the community and saying that they had a process to test you at home, for roughly 200 Euro per test.  Fake offering.  People referred this back to the local authorities.

Another case came up.....in Saxony.....some guy called up a German retiree around 4:30 AM (yep, that early in the morning) that his friend or associate was having the virus, and some 'team' needed to come out and look for samples in the old guy's apartment.  The 'team' arrived (two) and were dressed up in bio-suits and masks....spending around 10 to 15 minutes in the apartment.....never being left alone.  Nothing stolen.

Up in NRW, some guy called an older couple and said that a young relative had the virus and needed expensive medication.  No money was handed over.

I suspect that over the next month, you will see a lot of this.  Waking the one guy up at 4:30 AM....takes the cake though. 

"It Feels Like a War"

Somewhere in the midst of a drive today, my German wife made the observation "it feels like a war" with all the Coronavirus chatter and sparse goods in grocery stores (really just toilet paper, canned goods, and hand sanitize).  I almost pulled over and was going to tell her off, but stopped myself and figured half of the German nation is going to the far extreme of thinking it's awful right now.

It's just that a lot of things are not functioning in the way that you'd think.  The recycling centers?  All closed....maybe until the end of April....maybe longer.  Any business with the German authorities?  Forget about it.  Need a new license?  No way.  Had a party planned for your partner at the nearby cafe?  It won't happen for the next four weeks.

Buses are running but mostly empty. 

Everyday....more chat via the public TV stations, and experts to appear to lay out the 'truth'.  Questions remain, and no one knows when the mess will go into a recovery stage. 

I eventually responded to my wife and suggested that we still have it way better than when folks existed in old East Germany under the Communist rule, and that there are over 300 cartons of beer at the grocery.....yet to be bought, and tons of junk-food, chips and salsa.  Pepsi is not about to run out, and cat food seems to be no issue. 

Chancellor to Speak Tonight (Wed)

Public news says that around 8:15 PM tonight, the Chancellor (Merkel) will have live comments and speak for a period of time (no one is saying amount).

Rarity of this?  What they say is that she's never given a prime-time live speech during the entire fourteen years.  Both Schroeder and Kohl had both given two each during their eras.

What to say?  No one is expecting any new significant measures, so this is a pump-the-nation-up type of speech. 

If I were to assess public attitude, I'd say that the majority of Germans are a bit frazzled and nervous.  Most want a get-well date, which cannot be given.  How long will schools and universities be out?  No one can make a guess on that. 

After 9-1-1, I sat and watched security 'alerts' go to a maximum level, which the American plans people had said over the decades that you could only go at the max level for a period of a month or so....so by the third month of maximum security.....serious problems were developing and most were at the point of suggesting to lessen the security (finally).  I think this will become that way in the next six weeks. 

I noticed this morning that the A4 entry point into Poland....now had a backed-up truck situation amounting to 60 km (37 miles).  Some of those trucks will be in line for at least 24 hours, which puts their delivery at least 24 to 36 hours behind.  If all of these nations are doing the same thing, for at least two months, then the food distribution system will crap out eventually.

The Discussion of Corona-Geld

It got picked up this week....a discussion by political folks over granting 'Corona-Geld' (Coronavirus-money).  So what you have in Germany is a fair sum of people who were working 'per-hour' situations and now the shop is closed.  Grocery and drug-stores remain open....but the rest are under some official closure orders.

So if you ran a furniture store, or a ice-cream shop....you are likely closed, and the people you paid (per-hour) are sitting at home.

For the German federal government to pick up this bill?  It would go into the tens of billions to just cover one single month.  The problem is that you have to invent some method....just to cover rent-money and food expenses.  My humble guess is that some cash-flow will occur within the next ten days, and a check will be issued to people who make less than 1,500 Euro take-home each month.....to cover this period.

How long can the German government cover something like this?  It would shock me if they went past sixty days.  Dumping the 'black-zero' financial strategy within the Merkel-coalition?  You'd have no choice.

Expect this to be the bigger of topics between now and the middle of next week.

Does the Coronavirus Affect the Chancellor 'Race'?

The national election is roughly 18 months away. 

Two months ago, most everyone would have said that the Chancellor 'race' was really set to two outcomes.....either the CDU candidate would win, or the Green Party candidate (Habeck). 

Once that AKK (the current party chief of the CDU) said she was stepping down and would not run for Chancellor.....the race fell to two individuals (Merz and Rottgen).  Neither are exactly a candidate that pro-Merkel people seem to support.  Both have been critical of Merkel's policies of the past decade.

So over the past month, the Bavarian CSU Party chief and Premier President of Bavaria (the governor)....Markus Soder, has emerged as a landscape figure in national meetings and often on the front-cover of Corona updates.  He has impressed a lot of people with the CDU Party.

Since the April CDU Party meeting is suspended (virus worries).....I don't see this occurring until August or September (with AKK staying on as party chief).  This time period gives Soder more of a chance to dominate the news media, and show his stuff.

The odds of him rising above Merz?  It might be a shocker.

Attitudes of the pro-Merkel folks against Soder?  No one says much....but you have to remember....he has never gone to criticize Merkel or her strategies.

Germany and the Coronavirus: 18 March 2020

1.  Infected: 7,156 (RKI numbers).  Dead: 23 (NTV numbers).  Infected in past 24 hours: 1,723.  Top three German states with infected: NRW, Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg.  If you did the numbers with the population, then Hamburg (the state) would be the most highly infected state of Germany, and Thuringia would be the least infected (per population).

2.  First death reported in my state of Hessen.  Here in Wiesbaden, the 68-year old resident died yesterday. 

3.  Some grocery stores are declining the option of opening on Sundays.  I noted that both Penny and Rewe, two major grocery operations in the country.....said 'no'....they have enough business already and didn't see the need for Sunday hours.

4.  N-TV noted this morning that entry via the Frankfurt Airport for non-EU members is now impossible.  New rule changes. 

5.  Why has Germany shown lesser death numbers than Italy?  This got picked up by N-TV this morning and lightly discussed.  Italy is nearing 28,000 on infections (WHO data), with 2,503 deaths (within the last 24-hour period, they had 349 dead folks.

This has popped up on TV forums, with various experts discussing the topic.  No one has a clear answer for this.  The Italians aren't publishing a lot of info on the dead.  One has to wonder if the bulk are over the age of 65, and were heavy-smokers.

My own humble opinion, having been around Germans for years, is that this leads to three odd characteristics: (1) Germans are hyper and compulsive about sanitary conditions and hygienic practices. (2) Germans have a tight (small) circle of friends, so the social-passing of diseases isn't that common.  (3) Italy has a significant number of people over the age of 65, and I kinda suspect that the bulk of the 2,503 Italian deaths at this point (maybe even 95-percent) are older folks.  If you look at the German numbers of dead....the bulk are also over 65 years old.

6.   The European soccer tournament has been moved to July of 2021 (instead of this summer).....with the games to be all played in England. 

7.  Friedrich Merz, chief candidate to be the new CDU party-chief and future Chancellor.....is announced to have the virus.  Age: 64.  He's in generally good health so no one assumes issues. 

8.  A 40 km (24.5 miles) traffic log-jam was reported yesterday on A4 (nearing the Polish border).  German Foreign Minister is talking to the Poles and trying to relax the entry procedure.  In general, the Poles have closed the border to all foreigners, with truckers seeming to get the pass to enter but most show that they have no symptoms.  Holding back the truck deliveries?  Well, if you think about it.....most of the trucks are probably from Spain, France and Italy.....with fruit and vegetables onboard.  If you delay their delivery, you end up with shortages of food somewhere down the system.. 

9.  The German Agricultural Minister is insisting that there is plenty of food, and no reason to be 'hamster-like' (over-buy).  From my viewing of grocery operations over the past two weeks......plenty of fruit and vegetables.  Same with meat products.  Canned products, spaghetti, and toilet paper are the only items in short supply.

10.  There is some plan going on in Berlin to build a giant temporary hospital on the Messe grounds of the city.  It would be for a max of 1,000 patients, and the Bundeswehr (German Army) would run it.  It wouldn't surprise me if five or six other metropolitan areas of Germany also start some plan for a 500-to-1,000 bed facility like this.