Friday, April 4, 2025

Where All Of This Tariff Chatter Will End Up?

 Just my humble view....by the end of April....at least five countries on Trump's 'list'....will be meeting and agreeing to a 50-percent cut in their tariffs already existing (some for decades) on the US, which the US will react, and cut half of it's tariffs on these countries.

So at that point....Germans will key on this  'reciprocal' phrase.....asking the news media to explain what it means.

At that point....someone will accidentally mention that West Germany, and later unified Germany....had various tariffs existing. 

'Oh' will be the response, and then someone will ask....wouldn't you want to cut the US tariffs by 50-percent, to get Trump to lessen the tariff on Germany?

By the end of May....about half of this German 'fear' will dissolve....after a cut in the tariff-war occurs.

The 'experts' saying tariffs are evil and useless?  They will have a problem  in explaining this....with a straight face....when tariffs have been in place for forty to fifty years.

I should add one element to this  discussion....as much as production has up and left the US (since the 1970s/1980s/1990s) in massive form.....the same can be said for Germany.  Other than the steel industry and car industry....most everything else outside of agricultural products and beverages....have also left the country.  

Go out and price-up socks or underwear....most of what you see....is non-Germany and non-Europe made.  Most electronic items?  Non-Europe-made.  Most drugs?  Non-Europe-made. Simple things like car-light bulbs?  Non-Europe-made.

It is an interesting train-wreck we see developing....but the time before the wreck....we seem to be missing.

Both economies (Germany and the US)....walking along the same spiral.  Mexicans doing the shit-work for lesser wages in the US?   Same deal with Syrians and Africans in Germany.   

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