Polling for this state election?
Five parties with 5-percent or more.
AfD, 40-percent. CDU, 26-percent. SPD, 8-percent. BSW, 5-percent. Linke, 11-percent.
Coalition in the end? Unless AfD gets close to 50-percent....trend would be CDU-SPD-Linke-BSW. Yeah, awful weak.
Odds of AfD getting near 50-percent? Hard to say at this point.
Interior Minister Dobrindt gave a 'talk'....saying it's time to require civil defense 'classes' in school, and perhaps even adult classes.
Covering? Well.....war stuff, and natural disasters.
"Prevention creates security." Thats the key quote I take from his speech.
If you asked me on how to handle disasters in Germany....I'd have to sit and ponder that for a while. I have my vast Air Force time.....where you knew a strategy for a dozen-odd events. Today....there's mostly a siren 'alert'....if it were real....they'd instruct you to listen to the radio for instructions.
War-stuff....like a Russian invasion? I have no idea. About two years ago....the wife hyped-up this....after public TV suggested the Russians might attack. I told her to fill the car up with beer/water, and drive west. I think she thought there was 'more' to counter-invasion strategy....like handing out rifles/ammo/helmets.
Are there any German prepies? No....not like you'd see in America.
Massive power outages? We are kinda geared to what is normal....six to twelve hours of a outage. If it were five days? No...I can say pretty clearly.....no one in the village has a power generator.
What I see from this strategy.....classes in school? You are going to have thousands of German kids hyped-up and worried about some disaster.
Well....the SPD (Social Democratic Party of Germany) has been locked into a long-term general decline. You can say with authority....the 2025 federal election set them to a historic low vote situation.
Feb 2025? They received just 16-percent of the vote (down 9.3 points from 25-percent in 2021. Yeah....worst numbers since 1880s.
Reasons? I'd give three:
1. They were the working-class party....but if you poll such people today.....half have given up on them.
2. Lot of SPD-likely voters saw the 2021-2024 SPD-FDP-Green coalition as a major failure, and remember the screw-ups.
3. If you were leaning leftward....you have options: BSW, Linke and Greens.
Things improving? It's going to be hard finding a path to bring voters back.
1. Gas price: 2.08 Euro (E-10 fuel).
2. Focus piece from yesterday.....Paderborn region....14-year old girl held in jail-like situation. Authorities consider the radicalized Muslim girl a absolute threat. Upon mental health exam....doctors convinced it's not some bipolar or nutcase issue....she just plainly wants to kill non-Muslims.
State authorities have tried to place her in a facility....so far....no one wants to sign up for this case.
3. Just odd things you notice about voting in the Pfalz....lot of folks are hyped-up on crime. But if you dig into 2025 numbers....lowest rates of crime are in the Pfalz.
Lowest rate of knife assaults: 13 per 100,000 for the state in 2025.
Rural regions/wine districts....extremely safe/low crime.
Public perception? Opposite.
SPD did a crappy job in convincing public of safety.
4. Munich mayor election....SPD long-term mayor gone....Green Party candidate won.
Fairly negative end for SPD running the state gov't currently.
CDU: 30.5-percent
SPD: 27-percent (about 9 points down from last election....lot of folks converted to AfD)
Greens: 7.5-percent
AfD: 20-percent (12 points up over past election)
Linke Party: 4.5-percent (might find some votes to make up...but seems like they will not get seats)
Coalition? Probably CDU-SPD. Probably only 4 parties to get seats.
Five discussion items that oddly came up in this election? First....agenda to prohibit cellphones in schools. Second, starting 'aid' to keep alive pubs in small villages (state-aid)....if there is only one left. Third, some effort to prohibit German Army recruitment. Fourth, creation of citizen-groups....to tell the state assembly folks what regular people think about certain policies (mostly because the state politicians seem unlikely to grasp what people think). Fifth, apartments that have been long empty (by landlord's strategy)....to be taken away and run by the local gov't....paying the guy his rental income.
I tried to make sense out of the apartment thing. My German wife is particular about who rents the two apartments, and she would be hard-ass about this....stalling a rental unit for six months if necessary.
I should note....it was also pushed....if you were a migrant kid and failing to achieve in school....there was a political agenda pushed....where the kid would be put into a special school where only his language was to be used. Now....where he was at 18/19 years old....I have no idea. Seems like this type of agenda....made little sense if the kid was staying in Germany.
If you hang out around train stations in Germany....BULLSHIT stuff often happens, and you just stand there admiring how the mess went from one situation.....to another....in a matter of minutes.
So I read up on this episode that occurred in Frankfurt's train-station (mega-sized) district....about a block away....early this AM (Sunday).
Two guys met up and there is a talk about how one is supposed to hand over a E-scooter to the second guy.
There is a argument to start up.
So, one guy pulls out a pistol and fires nine rounds (whole clip) at the other guy.
Oddly....not a single round hits the second guy.
I pondered over this....odds of this....if the guy was within 30 meters? At least one round should have hit. Second guy is fairly lucky.
What the argument was about? Unknown. Drugs/booze involved? I'd speculate highly on that.
Cops showed up....arrested both.....charged.
Wild west mentality? Well....no, not yet....but you just see BS like this and wonder....where did all of this develop?
German Chancellor Merz gave a hyped-up CDU speech this week....touching on MAGA.
The basic quote? Something to the effect: 'The MAGA movement is not our movement. What they are doing with culture and media, how they deal with each other, is not our understanding of democracy.'
AfD? They have a theme that goes along the line of 'make-Germany-great-again'. I'd say of conservative voters....two out of five....would go to AfD....rest to CDU.
The problem here is....if you sat in a group of ten working-class Germans....asking for 'hot' political topics....it's going to financial woes, job-safety, price of grid-power, crime, negativity over migrants, and taxes.
In particular....a lot of German women are hyped-up (negatively) about safety of walking in public at night.
A lot of this commentary goes back to the idea....there was a 'time' when job-safety was not a issue....where the grid-prices were acceptable...where you could walk safely at night....and crime wasn't a big deal. This draws the typical German back to 'making-Germany-like-it-was'.
1. Mainz/RP state election; Today's election is a tough one to figure. CDU slightly ahead....figure 28-percent....with the SPD at 27-percent (last poll).
AfD at 20-percent. Greens at 9-percent. Linke and FDP at 5-percent (marginally).
If Linke and FDP fail....then it's just four parties having seats....mostly right-leaning, but the coalition would be CDU-led and SPD.
2. 2025, more than 121,000 lawsuits from air travelers were registered across Germany for court action.
Curiously....the justice system does not consider itself developed enough to handle this much 'traffic'.
3. Bavarian Premier President Söder is now asking for mini nuclear power plants in Bavaria.
At the same time....the EU wants to increase its investment in nuclear power again.
I read through the lecture....German states can't proceed on this idea....only via a fed-permission vehicle.
4. Uli Hoeness....sports 'boss'.....convicted tax evader....gave a speech this week.....telling the news media not to criticize the government anymore, lest the AfD comes to power.
Yeah, if you think about it....public TV and newspapers should cut as much political analysis as possible....if the goal was to prevent public frustration with the CDU-SPD gov't.
5. Berlin-City gets 500 reports daily now (on average) of people doing public 'waste' dumping.
6. SPD Party calling for higher tax rates for top wage-earners....to fill up the revenue 'buckets'.....CDU questions the idea.
7. EU talking of more regulation over used cars.
The hint? If you were a project-guy, and took a meticulously maintained 2005 VW Polo with accident damage but no valid roadworthiness certificate (TÜV)....then the rules would be that the car can't be sold (basically taken to a junkyard to be crushed.
8. Next week....if you live in the states of B-W and Bavaria....snow predicted, and temps back down to freezing for 3 to 4 days. Even in central region....no snow, but it'll hit 0 C in the evenings.
9. State of Bavaria putting pressure on....to end financial support for Ukrainians.
The chatter mostly goes to a 'end' around 1 July 2026.
Roughly 1.2-million Ukrainians are in Germany (legally).....I might go and suggest another 100,000 are here (not declared). No statistical data to say state-by-state population.
The suggestion is....if you need to stay....you need to find work, and not draw off welfare payments.
10. My observation over Gulf request support for more naval assets, and Germany declining.
Look....even if Merz took a neutral view and wanted to help....Germany only has a couple of frigates (11), two mine-sweepers, and a couple of corvettes. If they were to send one....it'd probably take a month to prep for the mission, and I doubt if they could be on duty for more than 6 to 8 weeks.
Besides....you'd need these assets to save Germany if Putin were to invade Europe (10-percent of Germans still believe this idea).
There's a state election coming up in the Pfalz shortly. So....SWR, the public TV network for the region...went and had what I'd call a election arena public forum....with the various big parties running.
Various topics covered....one intensely.....climate-change.
I'm not saying it's a top ten issue with voters...maybe if you had 16-to-25 year old voters....it might be in their top ten topics.
So, as each candidate is tossed the question.....you start to notice the camera angle.
They had a audience surround the six folks.....I thought it was a odd prospective...usually the public would be facing the stage.
So as the CDU guy gave his response.....camera captures the 3 public folks sitting behind the CDU guy....mostly grinning and shaking their head over his response.
Intentional? Well....I'd like to think it was accidental that they had the stage set this way, the camera angle set in a funny way, and had three anti-CDU folks behind the CDU candidate.
Could the camera deal and three 'jokers' shift 10,000 voters? I doubt it. But this race is fairly close on the CDU and SPD split of voters....it might only be a CDU win by 2,000 votes.
Footnote: You could probably ask 10,000 folks who watched and if they noticed the camera angle/shaking heads.....and fewer than 300 noted it (my guess). I should also note....there was a soccer game on at the same time, and most Pfalz guys were probably watching the game.
Hennigsdorf, town of 26,000....about an hour outside of Berlin.
They have a decent train station there....mostly to get people back and forth to Berlin.
So....crimes are up for some reason....in and around the station.
Locals approached the city council and appealed for voluntary citizen patrols are to ensure more order around the train station.
I pondered this idea....you don't see voluntary citizen patrols in Germany much. Who would likely be on such patrols? I reckon....older retirees. Probably three or four older folks....with cellphones, and a jacket to identify their organization.
Picking on young punks who loiter mostly? Yeah...very likely.
The problem I see...in six months....they might actually lessen the crime rate....by driving the 'bad-boys' to leave. Then other cities would jump in and advocate citizen patrols.
I'm not saying it's bad thing....but it's a magnet for AfD folks to participate in 'guard-duty'.
I had to fill the tank up yesterday for the Audi.....2.06 Euro per liter, E10-type fuel.
Yeah....outrageous.
Last night via the news....they showed German crossing the border into Poland.....E-10 fuel there was 1.38 Euro per liter.
Lot of Germans now asking how this is possible, or how the taxation stuff is rigged against the consumer.
1. This court-action to force the release of the Merkel Stassi file....is dragged up a good bit on social media. Court said 'no'....only Merkel herself can request and see the file.....general rule since the 1990s for any East German individual.
Virtually every single East German had a file....the question is....were you special enough to be a reporting agent on work-associates, neighbors, friends?
The most that would probably be in the Merkel folder? She probably reported on two-dozen folks....that they were pro-capitalists or anti-communist. I don't see the value of dumping this file. You might find where some neighbor described Merkel that she was lacking intellectual capabilities.
2. Economist Clemens Fuest gave a talk yesterday....saying that Germany has decided to be "a country where energy is scarce." His conclusion: "Energy-intensive industry has no future here."
My own observation....if you manufacture anything that requires power off the grid.....you can do it cheaper in Poland or Czech.
3. WELT item: German gov't notes....more Ukrainian draft-age men showing up in Germany....getting around the exit-ban.
Draft age: 18 to 63.
4. 15-year-old German kid in Wiesbaden...stole a city bus, and drove to Karsruh....to take his GF to school one morning.
5. Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's new Grand Ayatollah (for the past week)...reportedly possesses a vast fortune, which he hides outside of Iran. Rumor....he has two luxury hotels in Germany.
I sat and analyzed a news piece.
There was this parliamentary inquiry (question) posed by Thuringian Member of Parliament Robert Teske (AfD).
It went to the Federal Ministry of the Interior....asking about crime on trains and within train-stations....in Thuringa.
A big state? No....roughly 2.1-million...one of the smaller German states. Jena, Gera and Erfurt are the metro-cities of the state.
So for railway and station offenses....for 2025....8,342 total.
So....here's the odd part of the inquirty....it asked about nationalities.
Of the 4,368 suspects identified, 2,533 were non-German, or approximately 58 percent. 1,835 suspects were German, representing about 42 percent. For state numbers....only around 10-percent of the state population is non-German. So yeah, an overwhelming number of 'bad-boys' are involved in crime, and non-German.
This affecting the 2029 state election? Presently, in polling, AfD leads with around 39-percent of public support, with the CDU in 2nd place with 24-percent.
Just a humble guess....unless crime numbers reverse....you can probably add another 5-percent to AfD over the next two years.
The odd question I would be asking....why so much crime around trains and train-stations? A magnet for trouble?
1. Pfalz state polling: CDU likely to win with 29-percent of the vote, with SPD near 28-percent.
AfD polling near 19-percent. Linke Party at 5-percent (questionable if they fail). Green Party near 8-percent.
So....at best....four parties get seats....maybe five. Coalition? CDU-SPD.
2. Tuesday night.....around 7PM....BER (Berlin Airport) shutdown operations over a drone for about an hour.
3.Becoming apparent that the CSU Party (only in Bavaria)....will push to bring nuclear energy back....while the sister party (CDU)....is firmly against the idea.
4. Merkel's records with the Stassi....officially closed off....will not be released.
Dynamic? Accusations that she was a insider to the Stassi...in her youth. Proof? None, unless the records were opened....court refused to order this.
Mildly amusing....she's been 'gone' for five years, and this comes up now.
Key question....around 1990....as the Kohl team searched for key figures in the old DDR for the CDU Party....did they have access to the Stassi files? I doubt it.
In the mailbox today....was a Wiesbaden gov't letter addressed to me...more or less...a format letter.
Dear so-and-so....we noticed....you've been a 'guest-with-a-visa' for a dozen years....wouldn't you like to apply to be a citizen?
I paused over it....they listed five or six benefits (like I could vote....particularly in EU elections).
To be rather honest....I'm here mostly because of my wife. I could just as well move to Italy, Greece or Den Haag.
Me being a pleasant 'guest'? Well....other than a daily cynical comment or two....some weekly grumbling over the Bahn travel....I've tried to be a 'nice-guest'.
Them needing more citizens? I looked it up from 2015 to 2025....near 240k to 280k Germans a year.....who exit/leave. Yeah.....they need to keep pestering folks to either become citizens or come in. I'd almost suggest they need a HR-office to recruit Koreans or Australians to come in.
For well over a hundred years....the Social Democrats have existed....leaning just left-of-center. From 1949 to the early 1990s...they could manage to get in the range of 40-percent of the vote....sometimes bumping over 45-percent.
If you look nationally today....with the Greens, Linke Party and BSW....at best, the SPD can only manage around 16-to-20 percent of the vote.
With the state election of the past weekend....it was in the 10-percent range (crappy range).
If you asked about any 'stars' for the party....nationally....there's not much to talk about.
Some folks gaze at the decline of the FDP Party, and remark that they probably will never get above 5-percent nationally ever again...then suggest that the SPD is following the same path.
1. Bundestag President Julia Kloeckner (CDU), is elected President of Germany by early 2027.
2. Porsche (as a brand) is sold off from VW by the end of 2026....to a Middle Eastern investment group.
3. Enough pressure builds up....that ZDF (Channel 2 of public TV) has to dissolve its news division....leaving it with a sports division, entertainment division, and public forum division.
4. Chancellor Merz, by the summer of 2027....is exiting, and to be replaced within the party....due to zero fixing of the economy.
There's a state election for Sachsen-Anhalt later in the fall of 2026. I noted someone brought up the topic of a new poll:
AfD 40%
CDU: 27%
Linke: 12%
So, here's the odd thing.....BSW, SPD, Greens and FDP...are all listed with 4.9-percent or less....meaning they get no seats.
If this scenario were to occur....you'd have only three parties with seats. Coalition? Well....NO....neither the CDU or Linke would partner up with the AfD.
However, even if they went to 2nd place (CDU) sitting down with the Linke....based on the numbers, I believe the CDU/Linke combo would not come to 50-plus percent.
In the weeks ahead....for the CDU to end up with some dynamic partnership....either the Greens, SPD, or BSW....has to get to 5-percent.
I grew up in a low-status....having never seen a escalator until I was 18, and fresh new in Frankfurt (1978). What amazed me....were the number of escalators around Frankfurt.
This past week...the topic of escalators and Germany came up.
In Berlin....at the dynamic train-station in the middle of town....there are around 52 different escalators that move people. Well....if they are operational....they move people. This past week....now on day 10 (maybe 12)....35 of the escalators are non-functional.
It's reached a stage that the mayor is 'begging' for help.
I noted on social media....someone brought up the DDR days....saying that pretty much every escalator that existed in old East Germany days....was exceptionally prone to be non-functional.
So, I dug into this. Various escalators from across Germany, are down....from what the company (Kone) says....is a stem from a safety defect identified in the gearboxes of a specific type of a KONE escalator model.
The problem in waiting for parts and technicians? Well.....you have to walk up and down the stairs.
I sat and watched MOMA (the morning show of public TV....ARD/ZDF).
So they ran this news piece...2 to 3 minutes...explaining how various German hospitals now offer self-defense courses to hospital staff/nurses...because assaults are now a common threat in German society.
I pondered upon this. Through the 1980s/1990s....the last place on Earth that you might run into trouble....was a German hospital. You might have drunks....maybe a crazy guy once a year, but it was relatively 'safe'.
What changed? I think it's a combination of drugs....acceptance of insults/threats as being 'normal', and simply less respect for hospital people.
Within ten years, I'll predict that it'll be common for nurses and hospital staff to have tazers....using them aggressively.
1. I sat and read through a paper from the Int'l Energy Agency.....covering the EU in 2040. So the startling conclusion.....cost for storage capacity and knowable energy (wind/solar)....will be way more....than nuclear energy by that point.
You are starting to see various encouragements...for Germany to revert back to nuke energy.
2. Germany is about to release oil reserves (hoping to keep price down at the pump), and there's to be a limit to fuel changes (you see often....five to eight times a day....that stations change the fuel cost). Once per day...is what they will push.
3. CDU calling for easier situation for folks to work until age 70. I personally doubt if you can find more than 5-percent of Germans who agree with this.
4. Tegut grocery chain.....ending. Will be split up among Rewe and Edeka. My village (4,000 resident) has ONE single Tegut. Nothing spoken as of this AM....I assume it'll be picked up as a Edeka.
5. Germany is apparently considering Jürgen Klopp for the 2026 World Cup leadership/coach role....Julian Nagelsmann is spiraling downward. Awful late in the prep-up....to suggest firing the coach. I have trouble believing that Klopp would desire to step into such a mess.
6. Last night, I watched ZDF (public TV) for the 9:45 PM news.
Key feature? Fukushima. It was the 15th anniversary.
So the way they told the story....the 200,000 dead folks....died mostly from the nuclear energy plant disaster. Yeah, that was totally bogus/false.
The story was rigged to be anti-nuclear energy.
7. Great weather for past 2 weeks. By this weekend....if you into B-W or Bavaria....there's supposed to be 20-to-30 cm of snow.
8. The regional election for 2024 in Saarbrucken (for the towns)....ordered yesterday to be repeated.
Difficult story to lay out.....but in 2024....the AfD Party goofed up on the list of candidates, then went to a 2nd list to clear up the problem. Saar authorities disallowed the corrective action....so there was no allowance for the voters to vote AfD.
AfD challenged in court....2025....they won. Saar authorities appealed....yesterday, the appeal was thrown out. Figure in 60 to 90 days....a new election.
Odds? Currently in polls....AfD is near 20-to-23 percent in public polls.
9. Bayreuth, Bavaria....odd train station 'bumping'.....two trains collide.....8 folks wounded.
I won't make this a 60-page 'white-paper'.
Basically four factors fell into play.
In the early 1970s....all things nuclear (particularly 'weapons') got hyped up. Environmentalists picked up the topic, and it became a top priority of the Green Party in the early 1980s.
Second....as you enter the 1990s....the question came up....where do you 'dump' the waste, and they could never identify a 'safe' method (none of the 16 states wanted it).
Third....the 1986 Chernobyl disaster was discussed in a massive way and portrayed as the greatest disaster of all time (at least by the German mentality).
Fourth and final....as the country was heading toward taking the system down slowly....Fukushima occurred. I would describe the six months after Fukushima as a turbo-period, where deadlines were established.
The funny thing? Well....Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, the Netherlands, and Switzerland have nuke stations, and on occasion...Germany buys grid power from them. For whatever reason....it's OK that Germany does not have nuke power....while their neighbor does have nuke power.
First....I'm one to say since 2020 (the Covid era)....the German economy has marginally recovered, and the severe damage done (2020, 2021, and 2022)...has severely wounded what was the 'machine' left from the 1980s (the Kohl era).
Germans have tried to go back to normal....going on trips....renovating their homes....being social....being hyped-up about soccer and reality TV. But if you walk around shopping districts of Frankfurt, Mainz, Darmstadt and Wiesbaden....there's empty store-fronts....fewer restaurants/pubs, and more 'gimmicks' to get people to spend money (that they apparently don't have).
There's one particular pub in Wiesbaden....which suffered greatly in 2020/2021/2022. They briefly came back for 6 months in 2023....then gave up, and exited the building. A year passed....another guy showed up and tried to introduce a new pub....with that failing in six months. I noticed last week....a burger-joint operation is about to open at the site (mostly to sell beer, and hamburgers). It might do well in the spring/summer months....but they lack seating for winter 'survival'. I'll predict within 18 months....it shuts down.
Second, while Merz is the right guy to plan a recovery....he has to have general support of the SPD to bring change. Most of the SPD strategy centers on more 'projects'....which require more taxation revenue.
I'm not that enthusiastic over a route being invented.
Third, energy cost....compared to twenty years ago...is outrageous. The design that Merkel left for this 'crew'....would require a total revamp, and probably a comeback of nuke energy....which the environmentalists are fully against.
It'd make more sense for most German companies who have products/services requiring large electrical consumption....to move into Czech or Poland.
Fourth and final....if you sit with a older German crowd....everyone grumbles about the cost of living and the marginal pension plan.
The Merz crew is giving zero confidence on this problem....with whoever follows them....locked into the same mess.
1. VW announced yesterday....by 2030, it will have cut another 50,000 employees. Less profit....less sales....lot of blame going toward E-car technology.
If you lined up a hundred working-class Germans...I'd say only around 10-percent 'thrilled' to buy into E-cars. If you heavily discounted prices....you might get another 5-percent. Gov't policy and EU regulations....were detrimental to the whole German car industry.
2. The German police in Rosenheim....arrested a guy who had spat at a train attendant. So it turns out...he was a Somali, who already had court action going on....benefit fraud and document forgery. On the books....he was already going to spend four months in jail.
3. Some German went and did a speed camera inventory of the sixteen German states. Oddly....Baden-Wuerttemberg had the record....14 cameras per 100,000 residents. Hessen followed, with around 12 speed cameras per 100,000 residents.
At the bottom of the list? Bavaria, with two speed cameras per 100,000 residents.
Any logic to it? No.
My village (4,000 residents) has zero speed cameras. Over the hill....3 km away...another village (10,000 residents)....with five speed cameras.
4. EU talking up advocating nuke energy....yeah, shocker.
5. Talk started up....gov't talking of adding a special tax on gas-companies in Germans....if they make too much money.
About half the politicians seem to be shaking their heads.....that it'd only get passed down to consumers.
6. Economist Marcel Fratzscher, the president of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), gave a talk.....very negative about a forecast for economic growth in Germany.
"These two, three, five percent growth figures that some people still have in mind, – that's no longer happening. Because, we are a shrinking country and we lack the workforce."
Oddly, if you think about it....the CDU was elected into place to lead the economy back to a more positive position. If they can't do it....it's pretty crappy.
Topic came up this week (in the Pfalz).
Various German federal states have somewhat differing regulations regarding how such finds are handled. In most cases, finders are allowed to keep meteorites, provided they have fallen on their property or public land.
If you were to sell to the state? Prices go between one euro per gram and 5,000 euros per gram....depending on the composition, condition, and whether the find is fresh or not.
Some German states have a rule....stipulating that the find must be of special scientific interest....which it automatically becomes state property, with some cash as a reward.
Polling released in the past 2 or 3 weeks:
AfD, 39-percent
CDU, 15-percent
SPD, 13-percent
Linke, 12-percent
Greens, 6-percent
BSW, 7-percent
Remaining 9-percent spilt up.
If AfD were to get near 50-percent....no coalition is required. Key question...can BSW and Greens stay above 5-percent each...or if both were to falter to 4.9-percent or less....the numbers benefit AfD.
1. Turmoil brewing in Baden-Wuerttemberg over election results. After counting votes and doing the seat analysis....Greens get 56 seats, and CDU gets 56 seats....with SPD getting 10 seats and AfD getting 35.
Coalition matter? Well...the ONLY combo is Greens and CDU together. CDU suggesting power-sharing....which the Greens say....NO, there was an election and we got the most votes....so we get the Premier-President seat and lead on most state cabinet posts.
If no coalition is achieved in 30 days? There would be another election....probably in June.
What might happen? The CDU might sit down and agree on some things.....listing ten things that the Greens promised....as a NO-GO promise. That would make the Green Party incredibly weak for five years in the state.
1. Hyped-up sense over the state election yesterday?
Well...Greens walked away with a major 'win', and the SPD folks (at least in the state of B-W)....looked like crap. I would add....if you go and look at regional voting....there's some shocking upward urbanized trends for AfD (Mannheim for example).
Balance of seats? It appears that the Greens get 56 seats....as do the CDU. SPD gets 10 seats, and AfD gets 35. Coalition? It can only be Greens and CDU. If the CDU has some right-wing agenda to pop up....they could carry it with AfD votes.
2. Yesterday....Putin gave some speech. Midst of it....had a five-star coughing attack. Was carried live on TV apparently.
3. One odd aspect from the German state election.....the trend-folks can show that AfD gains....came from left and center politics. General public are attached to the crime-angle and migrant issues.
4. Meteorite damage.....various parts of Rhineland-Palatinate Saturday evening.
Police say....fragments of a meteorite have caused damage to roofs and houses in Rhineland-Palatinate. Damage reports: Hunsrück and Eifel regions, as well as Koblenz.
Green Party.....winner....31.8-percent.
CDU....2nd place....29.3-percent (about 5 points above last election).
AfD.....17.6-percent....about 9 points above last election.
SPD.....5.5-percent (half of last time's vote).
FDP/Linke....4.5 percent each.....neither will get seats unless they get near 5-percent.
Massive Green Party win.....simple coalition.....Greens with CDU as a partner.
How way-off were the polls from the past week? I'd say Greens were 30-percent off....SPD way-over-counted.....and the CDU did overly well (6 points above projection).
This AM....I was reading a minor German news item....related to a school in the state of NRW (NW Germany)....where instructions got passed out during Ramadan and causing heartburn.
Students (appears in the age group of 12 to 14)....are apparently supposed to eat their break-time sandwiches or snack-food.....ONLY secretly or away from the Muslim kids.
Parents reaction? Mostly negative.
I paused over this....thinking....if you were true to the Ramadan business....you aren't supposed to hydrate (drink fluids) from sun-up to sun-down. You'd have to mandate no fluids as well as the snack-rule.
Inviting trouble? The more I ponder this....yeah.....there's trouble brewing if you really stress this.
This week...Hungarian officials stopped two vehicles (together)...heading toward the Ukrainian border (eastward).
What they found in the vehicles? 40 Million US-Dollars (cash), 35 Million Euro (cash) and 9 Kilogram in Gold.
Crew? Ukraine guys.
Official story? Profits from some Ukraine guy's business.
Bogus story? Well....you don't know.
All of this is an issue for the EU....where the money came from and how you can move this much in cash around.
One of the top ten grocery chains in Germany....is NETTO. On my wife's list? Well....no. She might stop there twice a year.
Yesterday, in their weekly advertising....they noted that they have a Cannabis-starter 'kit'....14.99 Euro.
I read the piece twice over. Seedling....basic instructions....projected growth, and you end up with a Cannabis plant.
255 shops will market it Germany-wide.
On the same brochure page....strawberry plants as well.
I'm guessing there is a age limit (probably minimum of age 16). This starting some trend? Maybe.
1. It came up on N-TV news this AM.....one out of every three Bahn 'conductors'....peeved enough to consider quitting....over the violence of ticket-auditing. Threat of violence....growing.
If you go back twenty years ago.....you simply didn't didn't have this level of 'threat'. I don't remember in the 2000 to 2010 era....seeing anyone audited much....riding without a ticket.
2. Back around two years ago....around 20 'bombs' were noted in delivery boxes around the EU. Investigation completed.....Russian military is blamed.
3. Kaiserslautern.....after a knifing death last weekend....has put into effect a 'weapons-free-zone'.....meaning in the designed area....cops are free to stop you....force an ID-check, and frisk you.
For reference.....Wiesbaden started the first WFZ....around 6 years ago.
I've watched the clip of CDU candidate Hagel.....Wed at the school....drawn into a 'greenhouse-gas' lecture and royally screwing up the situation....with the 'kids'.
So my five thoughts:
1. Up to this point, with the state election on Sunday....the CDU was slated to win with 27-percent....Greens ending up at 24-percent. Now? I suggest a 3.5-point shift....Greens likely winning by 1 to 1.5 percent.
2. Why didn't the CDU have a 'watcher' over the guy and sense he was being set up?
It appears the teacher (probably very politicized) had things laid out to trip up Hagel, and the ARD news team....to capture the moment.
It was scripted....pure and simple.
3. The moment about 90 seconds into the mess....where Hagel loses 'it'? Yeah....he's not prepared, and realizes he was tricked.....lot of apparent anger.
4. The 'greenhouse-effect'? If you asked a thousand Germans....fewer than 10 would give somewhat of an answer....with half of them getting the solid answer.
5. So, here's the odd ending. Greens win on Sunday....my prediction.
They turn to get the CDU to partner-up and half of the voters for the state CDU say 'NO'. No partnership for the coalition.
The Greens turn to form with the Linke, SPD, and FDP....finding it barely works but the FDP want a list of conditions.
In the end....NO coalition....with another state vote in 60 days (my humble view).
I sat last night and watched the weather folks of public TV....hype-up their latest accomplishment. They seem ready to hook-up AI....giving it some kind of 'best-case' versus 'worst-case' scenario ability on weather predictions.
In my mind....without much doubt....the crazy weather predictions might improve....minute-by-minute. So you could watch 'AI-Maggie' at 6:10 AM....getting x-news on weather (nothing to worry over), and an hour later....'AI-Paul' at 7:00 AM might give you some pretty crappy news....of impending hail at 10 AM.
Monster-rain storms in July? AI could probably track systems as they enter Germany and send you a personal warning 90 minutes ahead of time....that you need to close all windows and prepare for serious weather.
This AI-assist? I'm not calling it a positive thing....it means AI is tracking various things, and will state facts way before a human would have uttered some warning. It's also telling you of heat-wave crap, with advice to seek cooling situations (probably telling you where some AC can be found).
A new reality.
Yesterday......Federal Constitutional Court opened up in Germany.
Key court story? The "Deutsche Umwelthilfe"....co-financed from tax folks of the federal government and various states, is in some suing against German industry.
By EU rules in place.....to reach a healthy 'clean' environment.....the prosperity and the economy of Germany (the government and companies).....in some way (if they win) would have to shrink faster for the climate.
On one side....it's moderately mentioned in the news. On the other side....if the court says they have 'power' over the economy and industry....then there's authority for them to downsize the German landscape.
Personally, when the EU got into this law-business over the environment and industry....I don't think they had any idea where things would lead onto.
As for the folks 'pushing'? Well....if they wake up and 30-percent of employed folks are in danger of seeing their jobs go away....society won't be that friendly or accepting of the 'reality'.
I sat and watched a PR-type campaign video.....done by the CDU's lead candidate in the state of election in Baden-Württemberg.
This was set up in some school.....which I immediately noted....the kids have no vote, unless they are 16.
I'm assuming they asked for a older group...but the kids in this room were age 13/14 (my guess).
So....Manuel Hagel went into education-mode....to explain the greenhouse effect.
My German is less-than-average....but the next 60-odd seconds...Hagel gave some words to say the sun is getting hotter....because the Earth's atmosphere is becoming thinner.
Just by the look on their faces....the kids were either in a state of disbelief....or in some mid-morning 'trance' (too much Monster-energy 'fluid').
On the positive side? Well....the kids are still pumped up on climate-change-Angst (fear).
Probably needs to be a German law....to prevent politicians from entering any school unless the kids are 16-or-older (enough to vote).
Footnote: I think the CDU guy just lost 5 points off the election....but I don't see the Greens on the gain-side. Very odd development.
State election.
CDU will win....around 27-percent. Greens easily in 2nd place....24-percent.
AfD near 20-percent.
SPD, 9-percent. Linke and FDP near 6 each.
1. Yesterday AM....Iraqi Kurds were organized and crossing the border into Iran....invasion-style. Based on reports....I'd say they were armed by the US Army and had clear strategies....hooking up with Iranian Kurds.
2. Odd thing I noticed via Bloomberg News yesterday....Sweden’s central bank advised folks....they should hold a week’s worth of cash at home. Reason? Well....you might need to buy food, essentials...in case of a war or other crisis.
Why drove this advice? Unknown.
3. Putin suggested he might cut off ALL natural gas deliveries to the EU....saying that he has other customers.
4. These big public viewing beer-parties during WM2026 (this summer)? Well....in Hamburg....cancelled. Security requirements make it too costly. Going to be a lot of grumbling how things got this way.
5. Two bomb threats yesterday....Bremen, and Augsburg....shut-down the two train-stations. Nothing found.
6. 143,000 registered cases to go against deportation orders in Germany for 2025. These were people who came into Germany....asked for asylum, were evaluated, and then given the 'nein' paperwork.
You can add up the paperwork, and manpower....probably 40-man-hours for the gov't to defend their decision (minimum)....but this would tie up the German court system for years, and years.
The court system was never made to handle this sort of mess.
7. Cash requirement? If you have something to buy/pay-for....costing over 3,000 Euro, and you pay in cash? Then some ID is required. A bad example here....if you had a used car....pricing it at 2,999 Euro would avoid the paperwork. Pricing it at 3,050....requires the paperwork.
8. When you examine how things went 'south' so fast in Iran....this one meeting about 3 weeks ago....where the Trump folks were trying to deal with Iran's nuclear program....the topic of how much enriched uranium came up.
We are talking weapons-grade uranium.
The response was x-amount....enough for 11 nuke-bombs.
Why this guy was honest? That's really the big question. If he'd say half-a-nuke or less....things might have gone in a friendly fashion
Was he boasting? Was he just a new guy? Was he just a actor in the talks? Unknown.
9. All that 'bad-Spain' talk? Ended. The PM came back yesterday, and said they re-considered....Rota and Moran are open for US operations.
To put things into prospective.
Moran is by Seville, and Rota is by Cadiz.....both were US bases.....paid and kept up to date....for events like this.
Sanchez, the PM of Spain? I'd describe him as 50-percent Gov Newsom (Cal)....male-model type, but being one step above Newsom on IQ, and mostly attached to only focus-groups that get the vote out.
10. Gas prices this AM? In my region.....1.88 Euro for E-10.
After yesterday's piece on Stuttgart having an audit....finding that of the 17k city employees....a 1,000 are not necessary....my German wife got into this topic.
Her belief? If you visited the top fifty German cities....they all have a 5-to-10 percentage 'overage'. Her belief as well...if you did trim and let people go....this 100,000 group would have issues/problems in finding new work....permanently unemployed is the outcome (her thoughts).
I pondered this unique problem.
In most cases....my belief....for each six workers....you probably have a manager, and for each three managers....there's some division chief.
In a shop of ten folks....there's probably three workers carrying the work-load....doing around 75-percent of the work. The remaining seven are mostly to fill the gap and 'look' busy.
In my days in the Pfalz....someone brought up their German wife wanting to open a cafe, and needing a business license. Various trips to the town 'rathaus' were failures....mostly because of the clerk in charges of licenses. Eventually....she gave up on this idea...in this one particular village....selecting an alternate site a couple of kilometers away, and on the first trip to that new clerk....all papers were squared away.
I'm not saying all city employees are 'problems'.....but the system over the past forty-odd years has corrupted itself.
So the curious question....would the SPD, Greens, CDU, AfD, and Linke folks....be willing to cut 100,000 city employees across Germany? I would say......no.
There is this odd belief.....Iran will use cheap drones (maybe two-to-three hundred a day....to force the US to spend expensive weapons to halt the drones.....to which around day ten....the US is assumed to be 'out'.
Who gave the Iranians this idea? I'd guess the Chinese.
The problem.....the US really hasn't put the full 'blast' of assets there in the region (in terms of Naval or Air Force).
The other issue....as days pass....the US gets smarter on where this bulk storage of drones are, and there's to be a moment where that one single 'tunnel' is targeted.
It's a hopeful strategy....but around day 30....there's to be a bad 'feeling' lingering among those still left alive.
1. It's an interesting thing.....probably near 30,000 Germans in the affected zone....stuck....no planes flying in/out.
Based on regional chatter there....various gov'ts (Qater, Dubai)....stepping in to pay hotel bills of folks stuck.
One travel agent back here in Germany....I noted on social media...said something to the effect that they had a client (or two)....there in Dubai, and wanting to 'leave'. Seems that the airport isn't sure of much.....agent was asked if they could rig up 'something'. Agent noted that they could get them on a bus....going 25-odd hours...to Jordan.
2. Iran 'burning' bridges? Yeah....sentiment from the neighbors....there's no talking-phase at this point....the Mullahs have to exit. Not sure where they might go (Russia or China....won't accept them).
3. This 'war' to end in four weeks? If you wrote down a list of the top 300 'leaders' of Iran from Feb....based on commentary, I'd say that 75-percent of them are 'gone'.
If you get into the next 500 'leaders, captains, bosses'....they probably have ten days to exit...before they end up on some hit-list.
By mid-April....the US/Israel agenda is done.
4. Gas today? I noted 1.89 Euro to 1.94 Euro, per liter of E10.
5. New poll in Germany, for national politics....CDU-CSU up around 27-percent.....AfD at 24-percent.
Key problem....64-percent of voters want Merz replaced. They don't say by who.....just that one year into the situation....not much has improved.
6. Odd feature.....62 tons of Brazilian beef was delivered into the EU. Tests done....it featured a growth hormone....freaking out out some folks.
Just guessing....you probably aren't seriously affected but it's just a guess.
7. Discussion started up on social media....youth....asking if they aren't 'mature' until age 16 for social media....all the way up to 15 years/364 days....they are to be treated as 'kids'.
Term 'unfair' comes up. They might have a point.
8. Islamist terrorism remains by far.....the greatest focus of the German Federal Prosecutor's Office. Right-wing/left-wing radical stuff.....only 4-percent.
9. Stuttgart doing an audit.....admitting that maybe around 1,000 city employees....out of 17,000....may have to be 'cut'.
Seems like they are screwing up on budget matters....for several years.
10. Insurance companies in Germany looking at upping rates on car insurance....for the over-80 crowd (180-percent up)....going to force some seniors to plan dumping their cars by a certain age.
Well....in four weeks....this 'war' likely ends (I presume a break-up and Persia comes to exist with 60-percent of the territory).
Upon a break-up....the US and the Middle East have first 'dibs' on support and contracts.....if you didn't help to bring down the Iran gov't....you will not be welcomed by the new Shah gov't.
Add to this....German-Iranians....are not pro-Iran.....they want the regime to fall.
Pretty simple situation to select sides.
1. Bad case of flu.....now on day 7. Haven't had this 'level' since early 1990s. Was even worse than 2021's Covid. I've been flu-vax 'free' since 1999....never having more than a 24-hour bug.
2. TUI Cruises' "Mein Schiff 4" is currently located near the attacks on US bases in the port of Port Zayed in Abu Dhabi. From what was described....some small rocket hit the ship....minor damage. No one harmed. 2,500 folks on board.
3. Islamic guy seriously injured several clubgoers in Bielefeld with two knives. Some suggestion that he has a ISIS history.
4. Public TV (ARD/ZDF) hyped-up.....30,000 Germans in the war-zone....gotta-be-rescued. Foreign Ministry....in middle of the mess.
Hate to say it....but they'd have to ask the 'evil-Trump' to rescue them out of harm's way.
5. My view of the war?
Look....fuel reserves/diesel-gas-jet fuel....enough for about 4 weeks. After that....nothing is going to move within Iran. The 'bosses' ran a marginalized economy for forty years....never reflecting upon reality.
They locked down the Straits....meaning nothing gets in or out....screws them as much as everyone else.
My prediction? In 4 to 6 weeks....Iran breaks up.....probably into 3 new countries.
