IEA Chatter

 I sat in the last hour....reviewing a AM interview....the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, gave a talk...to say....Europe still has enough jet fuel for "maybe six weeks or so".

BS? Well....it's mixed.

Germany for example....has yet to turn on its 90-day oil reserve supply.  Tankers on their way to Germany to deliver?  Yeah....in about 12 days....the last oil tanker will unload....then a two to four week supply of fuel will exist.  As that concludes....then the oil reserve stock will kick on.

Other countries? I'd say about 90-percent of Europe is in a similar situation.

So what will happen?  It's not really Europe in a 'pain'.....it's destinations that will worry folks. Going to India or Asia....you probably will see cancellations in four to six weeks.   Japan?  They've gotten US oil tankers arranged, and they might not have any problems.

The fact that 20-million Germans have some kind of airline reservation for spring, summer and fall at risk?  Yeah.  Adding to the risk...you might fly into Turkey with zero risk, and wake up two weeks later....where your airport to leave for home....has a fuel shortage.

Massive oil tanker trail  going from South Africa toward the US Gulf and Venezuela?  Yeah....I've seen the maps....probably well over 200 tankers making a path.

16 April 2026: Germany: 5 Things

 1.  New national poll done for German public opinion (if an election were today)....CDU-CSU at 23-percent (2nd place, falling 3 points), with AfD  leading at 27-percent.

Both FDP and BSW moving up a notch, to 4-percent each.  SPD lingering at 13-percent. Greens: 14-percent.  Linke at 10-percent.

You add CDU-CSU and SPD numbers up....comes to 36-percent of public polling (pretty crappy).  

2. Tax-Payers Association...heavy negative criticism of the CDU-CSU-SPD 1,000 Euro bonus-tax-free deal.  

3.  Starting in summer of 2027...new EU rule.....10,000 Euro in cash is max for a cash situation (if you buying something).  You have to electronically 'send' the money if over 10k. New German rule  for 2027.....if you are putting  down 3,000 Euro or more....you need to provide an ID for the transaction, and the data has to be kept by the store.  

4. Almost 1.9 million German over the age of 65....are currently employed and working.  

5.  Stern-TV (the show) from RTL-network last night....featured a 20-odd minute update of 'Timmy' (the sickly whale on the German coast).  They must have interviewed at least a dozen animal experts...giving each their humble thoughts on Timmy's illness or likely approaching death.

Probably 10-percent of German society are closely following the whales declining health.

Are There Three Factions Of Iranian Leadership?

If it hasn't been made clear.....lacking legit political parties.....Iran is basically run by three groups.

Hardline crew.....Islamic Republic....the absolute and consumed conservatives. (osulgarayan).  

This group wants strict ideological loyalty to velayat-e faqih (guardianship of the jurist).  Yes, they are anti-West, and their power leans toward the Supreme Leader, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). 

Then there's the reformists and moderates (the eslahtalaban).  This group wants civil liberties, economic changes, stable currency, survival of the banking structure, and mostly a moderate relationship with the west.  

Most of the general public wants this group to 'win'.

Finally....the third group....the Supreme Leader and his Mullah-crew.  If you haven't understood this....this group plays off both group number one and number two.

The Mullahs and hardline folks....having no understanding of the oil business, it's relationship to the economy?  Well....that's about 99-percent of the current crisis.

Four Humble Thoughts

 1.  From Hungary....Orban (on his way out) and Magyar (on his way in)....had connections between the two for almost two decades. They were never 'enemies'.

If you ask me....based on commentary by Magyar....the election almost seems like a rigged-up deal where you simply exchanged red-pill-one with red-pill-two...getting the same result,  but feeling good that some pro-EU guy is there.  Three months down the line....you (the Hungarian-voter) will wake up from this dream, and realize Magyar is very much identical to Orban (except 70 pounds lighter).

2. The beginning of the end for the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition?  It'll be the day that a survey is done and reveals that half of German society wants the Scholz coalition back (SPD-Green-FDP).

3.  I suspect if you sat down with most Germans and asked them to rank the tempo-limit (bringing the autobahn speed down to 120/130 kph), and among problems to 'FIX'....it won't be even in the top 700 issues.  Potholes....might even rank above tempo limit.

4.  Sometimes....late at night....I'm channel-flipping for German TV options, and  Frau W's show is on.

Basically, she's a fortune-teller....with cards, and Germans call in....asking if they should do something really 'stupid'.  Live-show....you (the caller) are paying something like 99-cents (per minute), and she lays out these cards to tell you the best option to take.

I'll typically watch for ten minutes....thinking 'Ingrid' (the caller) ought to dump the boyfriend, or trade in the 'junker', or tell-off the boss, or just seek better advice.

Lately, I've had this feeling that Chancellor Merz should call, and seek advice.

Faking It

I sat and read through a BBC piece of investigative journalism.   So....they were told....there's some Brit lawyers....helping migrants building a case to stay in the UK...by pretending to be gay.

I get the feeling that they thought....this was mostly made-up.  But in the end....as they talked to the migrants....yeah, it was a true statement...legal advisers come in....lay out the 'rules' of being gay, and migrant acts in this way.

Last year...there was a incident in Germany....where the Auslander-office (folks that handle migrants in Germany)....asked about the amount of 'gayness' that the guy had (nationality was not given), and the migrant got all hyped-up/angry about the suggestion that he was gay.

How many fake gays exist in the UK?  Unknown.  I doubt if anyone really wants to collect or analyze such data.

Bad ethical decision by the lawyers? Well.....they just want the applicant to get a visa....they don't care how it occurs.

The odd part?  Well....some Brit gay guy sat down and probably wrote the text and  behavior  thing....how to fake the gayness.  Maybe he didn't really grasp how far this would  go.

Is There A Pending Fuel Problem For Germany?

 I spent an hour yesterday reading over this suggestion.

First, there's roughly a 90-day reserve sitting there...yet to be turned  on.

Second, there are several oil freighters heading toward Germany....figure their arrival in three weeks. Once they dock....unless things rapidly change in the  Gulf region....there's a brewing problem (you can assess it to develop around the end of September).

But on the positive side?  Well...new oil-tanker traffic is heading toward Venezuela and the US Gulf region. 

The idea of expanding bio fuels (E10) to maybe E20?  I've seen that idea pitched.

So I'm not really believing there's much of a shortage of fuel for Germany.  Now....if the stress-folks at the SPD-Green agenda can make you believe in a shortage....getting you hyped-up to buy a E-car....well....that's different.

15 Apr 2026: Germany: 10 Things

 1.  RTL poll: AfD at 26-percent.  CDU-CSU falls 2 points to 24 percent.

Linke at 11-percent.  Greens at 15-percent.  SPD at 12-percent.  FDP lingering at 4-percent.

FDP leadership change?  There's talk,  and a new guy likely to be into position.  My guess....it'll be enough to bring  FDP by the end of 2026....up to 7-percent,  but the votes are going to come from the CDU-CSU landscape.

2.  INSA did a poll on 'trust'....with the public asked about the Chancellor (Merz)....he rates near 20-percent.

3.  In case you were wondering....that 'ALL' gas stations have the same pricing on fuel...NO.

I have a fuel App and over the Wiesbaden area....there's probably a 4-cent difference  between the 30-odd stations around the city for E-10 fuel.  The no-name shops are definitely at the lower end of the pricing.

4.  Ban coming for robo-mowers and night-time mowing....by German federal law?

Well...there's a lot of talk by the animal rights people...suggesting it's not right.  Personally, if you make the case for no-night-time mowing mowing.....the same save-the-animals logic should exist for day-time mowing as well.

In the 12-plus years I've mowed this German property yard....on one single occasion....I had a injured bird of some type.  I halted mowing for the day, and he was gone by the next.

5. Forsa/RTL-TV gave a survey....who do you trust (party-wise)?

CDU-CSU: 15-percent.  AfD at 14-percent.   SPD at 4-percent.

Top winner?  NO PARTY at 52-percent.

I sat and pondered this for 20 minutes....it's a weird question, and unusual 'winner'.   It means that the public is losing confidence with the system to work.  Who would blame?  Mostly the parties...but ARD/ZDF (public TV) has done a good bit to encourage folks to have faith......then delivered crushing 'blows' to the achievements actually delivered.  

6. At this past weekend's CDU-CSU-SPD meeting....odd topic came up.  CDU wants to abolish May-Day (federal holiday in Germany).  SPD basically basically 'hell-no'.

I personally think that Merz said it as a 'joke', to get SPD folks hyped-up and grumbling.

7. Will public workers (city/state employees) get the 1,000 Euro 'bonus' deal (tax-free)?  

Well....a CDU mayor indicated in pretty strong language...NO.  

There's going to be a lot of grumbling by the end of 2026 about this non-delivery of a bonus (tax-free). 

8.  Late yesterday....rumor-chatter started up that the EU intends to lower electrical prices across the 'land'.  How?  It wasn't really laid out.  I would assume they'd mandate some tax lowering dynamic. 

On the books....there are two 'taxes': VAT (sales tax) at 19-percent, and a Stromsteuer (2-cents per kWh).

However, there are four 'fees' also built into the system: Konzessionsabgabe (concession levy to municipalities): around 1.32–2.39 Euro cents/kWh. Then there is KWKG-Umlage (Combined Heat & Power levy): 0.446 cents/kWh....which supports efficient CHP plants. Then there's Aufschlag für besondere Netznutzung (§ 19 StromNEV): 1.559 cents/kWh....a special grid-usage surcharge.  Finally, there's Offshore-Netzumlage (offshore grid levy): 0.94 cents/kWh....which covers offshore wind connection costs.

Looking at this 'mess'....the EU must be bluffing folks.  If they inserted a 'cut' into any part of the grid cost....the German system would freak out because of lack of cash-flow to their pet-projects.

9.  DFB....the German soccer league....is starting up their own TV 'channel' (streaming-video)....5.99 Euro a month.

If you weren't getting enough soccer via  commercial TV or public TV....well, there's this. 

10.  The German term 'Milchmädchenrechnung' came up for me yesterday.

I spent about 15 minutes trying to grasp the term.

Translation?  Milk-Maid's calculation.

So....about 300 years ago...in Switzerland...in some fictional book....the writer wrote a paragraph that involved a rather naive gal, who had a side-business of some type, and had a profit plan that seemed to make sense on paper, but when it was applied....it failed.  Reasoning?  The young lady really didn't understand the complexity of commerce and business.

Some German yesterday uttered this...referring to the CDU-CSU-SPD folks.  

Three Odd Things I Noted

 1. Over the past year or two...if you were a resident of Berlin (the city)....you probably noticed increased trash on the street, and around the parks.

This AM...the CDU-led  city gov't came up and said: Berlin will start to reward tourists in the future....if they pick-up trash. You'd get vouchers.

They are also hiring  trrash  investigators....to walk the streets and find dumped-crap....putting into effect...higher fines.

I paused over this.  If I had 7 days off, and settled for a Berlin trip...I'm NOT about to waste one day of it...picking up trash.  My wife (being German) will go ballistic if I even suggest a day on collecting trash.

2  Just a lot of chatter over the past week or  two....Germans remembering 1973.....when the gas crisis hit Germany, and autobahns on weekends were deserted.

The odds of this in  April or May...near zero.

Odds in July or August? I'd say we are approaching a 50-percent point for a 1973-type crisis level.

3.  So talk of change has started to occur with German health insurance.

If you didn't know....there's around 90-plus health plans in existence.

The CDU has started a talk....to  dissolve the bulk of these....with the goal  being in the end....ten.

Grumbling?  Oh yeah....fair amount of negative talk has started up.

A change requiring the SPD to agree?  Yes....and they might not be that agreeable.

Were they that different?  Some were regional....some had limited situations for rehab (physical or drug or alcohol)....some required weight loss for knee or hip operations.

The chief problem....cost is escalating, and the state/federal apparatus....needs some tool to curtail rising costs.

Humble Thoughts Over Iran

 Four observations:

1.  Production-wise, they still drill and pump oil....HOWEVER, it gets to a depot area near the coast, and the tanks are rapidly filling, with almost nothing getting loaded on oil-tankers.

From my reading yesterday....I asked Grok (AI)...how much time was left before the tanks are all full....roughly 13 days was the answer.

So at the end of April...drilling stops.

Revenue from oil?   ZERO for the most part.

Iran had nothing much to make income off of.....so there's a cash-flow issue brewing.

2. Hyper-inflation on food?  Feb numbers suggest 47-percent.

3.  Jet-fuel rationing going on?  Yeah....mostly from the Gulf region is where this commentary comes from.

4.  Airport strikes going on...workers aren't showing up.  Some indications that only gov't ordered flights now operating.

Quiet-Quitting Chatter

  I noted yesterday.....some German using in social media.....the term 'quiet quitting'.

The meaning?  It's usually when people have no more interest in their profession...their job, or their political position.

These are people who screw up  constantly....make routine daily mistakes...their good/bad decision level is 50-50....seem lacking in motivation, and they can't seem to be truly reliable.

The  term is usually for commercial operations....this guy meant it for the CDU-CSU-SPD folks.

I'm not saying  he's right, or wrong.....just that you normally meant it to be used for sports teams, or commercial work (maybe for charity work too).

My worry (if I were a German)....if a majority of German voters believe in this concept, and see the coalition as 'quiet quitting'.....they might get the idea that voting AfD resolves this issue.

14 Apr 2026: Germany: 5 Things

 1.  The logistics industry of Germany...is heavy on criticism that the 'help' that the gov't is going to provide (17-cents off the energy tax for two months)....does not start until 1 May.  The 'stall' as some indicate....will push some trucking companies toward bankruptcy.

They may have a point, but the current gov't is not really built to handle problems such as this gas price crisis.  Once you have twenty or thirty trucking companies fail....then they will convene a new crisis team, and spend a weekend talking over a new problem and design more regulations to fit a situation.

2.  My feelings over the Hungary election?

Orbin out....Magyar in.....right-wing-XL guy out....right-wing-lite guy in.

If you look at the new parliament.....only three parties got seats....far-right-extreme, far-right-XL....and far-right-moderate.

All this tough anti-Russia talk....probably forgotten in six months.  There might be a couple of Russian  journalists asked to leave...but beyond, mostly fake chatter.

The one issue with Magyar?  He's prone to stupid mistakes (that past cocaine issue, the dog episode, and his ex-wife's stories).  If you asked me on betting odds....I'd say within two years.....his party has to force him to exit.

3.  BASF CEO says for the remainder of 2026....financial chaos for Germany....mostly over Iran situation.   

4.  Focus says:  Putin's mega-villa....now protected by 27 different air defense systems.  

5. WELT poll: Majority of Germans now support a temp speed limit on autobahns....120 kph.  Note: they used the term 'temporary'.  

My belief....within two months, some text will exist for a new law....but will be worded to be a two-year period.   During that period....they will collect data to show lesser accidents (at least on autobahns), and work to convince people to keep the limit.

Cash Bucket

 In case you were wondering....I asked Grok (AI)....how much money does Germany (the nation) ship out...past the EU....as 'gift-money' for groups/nations.

Roughly 25-billion Euro aa year.

This topic has come up....as the German  poverty-class has begun to ask questions.  These are the type that neither the CDU or SPD....can answer.

Can 1,400 Euro A Month Pension Money Work?

 Well....this 1,400 number gets thrown around a good bit.  It's what a average German apprentice kid....entering around age 16....will get around age 67.  Figure baker, plumber, heating tech, etc.

Germans talk about this...in a critical way.

If you were smart...around age 30, and invested a bit....working extra hours....you might achieve a investment fund to additionally supplement your 1,400 Euro....with anything from 300 Euro to 1,000 Euro.

Lot of differing numbers, but around 50-to-62 percent supplement 'something' toward the pension situation.

So roughly 40-percent of society do nothing. 

Can you survive purely off 1,400 Euro?   If you resize your living situation...living in a more rural area....yeah.  You'd probably dump the car....drink less booze....and avoid vacations.

If you were marginally paid over the forty-odd year period, and only making 900-Euro a month?  You'd be screwed, and probably getting some welfare funding.

End-point?  Well....you see this a good bit....where a German reaches age 50, and suddenly realizes the reality...shaking their head.

Explaining The Gas Tax 'Relief'

 As of 9 AM today, the 'relief' for German gas prices has been released.

If you didn't know....there are two taxes applied to German gas prices. One is the VAT/sales tax, and the other is the energy tax.

The relief?  From the energy tax (NOT the VAT)....17-Euro-Cents will be cut....for two months. 

So if you bought a liter yesterday for 2.10 Euro....then the new price would be1.93 Euro (still hefty....about 20-cents above the norm).  

What happens in six-to-eight weeks?  Well...if the 'war' is still screwing up the pricing....more talks will occur, and I would imagine it'll go for a second two-month period.

Still to be grumbling?  Oh yeah.  Who will get the blame for the grumbling? Mostly Merz, the CDU, and the SPD.

Why Can't German Coalitions 'Work'?

 Wel....for a long time (after the war)....you had three basic parties....left-of-center SPD, the right-of-center CDU-CSU, and the FDP (usually anti-tax and cut budget folks).  The FDP served to be the 'partner'....getting a cabinet post or two, and forcing compromises.

As the Green Party arrived....the SPD lost some voters, and started to be a partner.  As the Linke Party arrived....more SPD voters switched.

For about 20 years....the SPD and CDU-CSU folks have generally lost voters...to the point that combined....they can't get 50-percent of the seats to hold a coalition.

From 2025....the election results were enough....that the CDU-CSU invited the SPD in for talks. To get a partnership....you end diluting your 'promises' and end up as much a neutral organization....which your voters shake their heads and  wonder why they really need to vote.

 

Odd Deal

 Announced this AM....German gov't will offer a 'deal'.

Your company can offer you a 1,000 Euro bonus....tax-free. Anything over the 1,000 Euro....has taxes attached.

So my question....out of a hundred average companies in Germany...how many will offer the 'deal'? Twenty?  Fifty?

Some will be smart about this....deducting a 1,000 Euro from your check over 12 months, and presenting it to you....as a 'gift'...meaning tax-free status.

I would not be complaining but I doubt if you get more than forty-percent of Germany's work-force getting the deal unless they sneak it to you in some fashion (cutting the monthly check).

13 Apr 2026: Germany: 4 Things

 1.  From WELT over the weekend: Non-German suspects in the state of Bavaria for crimes in general....show an approximately fourfold higher rate of involvement in violent crimes compared to Germans. Syrian suspect?  Eleven times higher than a German.  Afghan?  Fourteen times higher.

2.  Talks all weekend by the Merz coalition...announcement to occur this AM about the results to solve the energy crisis.

3.   Tatort last night (the German crime show on ARD (channel 1))...featured a German comedian acting as the chief criminal suspect.  

Well....it just felt more like a comedy than a murder-show.

4.  German gov't discussing less-pay....when you are sick (so you would not get 100-percent compensation).  

Most Germans probably have five or six sick-days over an entire year, and  won't grumble  much over this.  However, if you were the gal/guy who took 20 to 30 days a year for sick leave.....yeah, you won't be happy.

Travel Commentary

 German passenger trains used to be 'classic' travel situations.

You'd board....on time...leave on time, and sit in a respectful cabin (6 seats).

The windows opened (if you needed fresh air).  Yeah, there was no  AC  unit.

A guy would roll a cart around later...selling you a beer, wine or Coke.

Sound-proofed?  Well...moderately.

Somewhere in the 1990s....the ultra-modern crap came, and 'classic' got dumped.

The biggest whine?  Mostly over the cabin being 'cornered' by older ladies who in December...had the heat up around 32C in the cabin. 

How Would A Excess Profits Tax Work?

 Once established....you'd  have a agency/group  to monitor the companies involved, and spend hours reaching a conclusion that something-is-not-right-but-you-can't-say-what.

So after 2,000 man-hours of audits....you conclude they must be hiding data, and there's just too much profit.  You get 'Timmy' (your numbers guys) to invent a maximum profit level....then start taxing.

The company reviews your action, and immediately lessens production or service.  It might be one-percent....maybe three-percent....maybe even ten-percent.

'Timmy' tells you a month later....the numbers changed.  What 'Timmy' is missing...is that you shifted the product to a slower schedule, or that you moved some production outside of the country.

A new problem is developed (oddly)....there's a shortage of X-product.  

A new agency/focus is started....to figure out why shortages now exist.  They hire a 'Timmy-2'.  His numbers reflect a problem where you need more incentive (cash-flow/profit).

Timmy-1 and Timmy-2 fight over the analysis.

Eventually....a new agency is formed....there seems to be too much regulation.  They hire a Timmy-3  to show the numbers.

Someone at this point figures out....the whole excess profits tax has only one purpose....hiring more people to fix a non-existent problem.

Four German Political Realities

 1.  If you had an election today....from the left spectrum (SPD, Greens, Linke, BSW)...you'd have a total of 39-percent of the vote (April poll).  

Right spectrum.....56-percent (CDU, CSU, FDP, AfD).

But to form a coalition (avoiding AfD)....you have to partner up with some left-group, and dilute the 'win'.

2.  As much as CDU-CSU claims to be conservative in nature....probably 20-percent are CINO (conservative in name only).  

3.   A topic that few politicians or journalists discuss?  As of the end of 2025, the combined debt of German municipalities and municipal associations....adds up to around €196 billion.

They'd  like for the federal gov't to find some 'gift' fund and help cure this 'ill'.

4.  If things did spiral into a collapse of the coalition....a new election would merely reshuffle the current crew into different seats, but basically the same arrangement, and the same ending....a new collapse within two years (my humble belief).

The most you'd gain with a new election is Merz likely being told to exit, and you end up with a new Chancellor pretending to be a CDU conservative and lacking authority skills.   

12 April 2026: Germany: 4 Things

 1. What you can take out of the failed Iran-US peace talks?  Two things.

First, there's two leadership 'waves'....one is the IRGC military-arm....which wants things to stay 'as-is'. The other is the Iran crowd that agrees....'change' has to occur in some form.  The crowd at this Pakistan talks situation....were mostly the 'change' crew, and they were challenged to simply stall.

Second, Iran readily admits....they've got no real data on sea-mines that they laid.  They simply dumped them at random. There's work to be done to find and eradicate the mines.

2. Lufthansa pilots striking Monday/Tuesday.  From travel social media  commentary....a fair number of Germans are saying 'enough', and suggesting the airline is on their 'avoid' list.  

I'm scheduled (with the wife) to use Lufthansa...next week (on Sunday).  The wife has already asked me for a plan-B.

3.  From today onwards, the sale of nitrous oxide (laughing gas) to private individuals will be prohibited in Germany.

4.  For years in Berlin....there were public 'displays' of executions at protests/demonstrations....to thrill the crowd, I imagine.  Well....the public display of executions at rallies and demonstrations in Berlin....is now prohibited. If you do a fake execution....cops can now arrest you (at least in Berlin). 

Good Quote

 "The 'CDU Social Wing' has fewer than 10,000 members. Why? Because it—like the SPD—no longer makes policy for workers. Workers want growth, performance, and a functioning state, not a confiscatory state that distributes their money to the wrong people."

--Thorsten Alsleben (Berlin Journalist)

Yeah, it's pretty much a carbon copy of what you see in US politics at present.

A Curious Theatrical 'Show'

 After yesterday's Chancellor meeting with the key finance players of the CDU-CSU and SPD parties....things have gone 'south'.

If you were wondering....yeah, gas/fuel prices are the number topic right now, and the public wants relief (asap).

So there are three 'players' in this 'act'....Chancellor Merz, the Finance Minister (Klingbeil/SPD), and the Economics Minister (Reiche, CDU).

There are three elements to this landscape:

1.  Merz wanted options laid out and gave both Reiche and Klingbeil a couple of day.  What Klingbeil went to...were three elements.  He wanted a profits-tax laid down on oil/gas companies.   Some gov't guy would decide how much profit you were allowed, and then taxes would kick in.   Then Klingbeil started a talk on gas-caps....meaning the gov't would set a price.  Finally...Klingbeil invited in a number of SPD-players (union folks, etc) to talk up his agenda items.

2.  Reiche....said 'what-the-hell' on the Klingbeil's meeting and dumped massively on the tax and cap talk.  This got the SPD membership all disturbed.

3.  Finally, the talent/skills of Merz  for leadership....fell into play where he tried to tell Reiche not to 'dump' so hard on Klingbeil.  What's been known for three decades....Merz lacks authority skills.  

So now...a funny factor starts to enter the scene.

There are elements of the CDU-CSU Party....which you'd  call CINOs (CDU in name  only)....meaning they lean pretty much in the center, or to the left.  They want Reiche 'fired'.

If this firing were to occur....a fair number of CDU conservatives would begin to ask questions and the public support would drop.

Economic downturn? YES, and the polling (coming up this week) will reflect more disenchantment with Merz and the coalition.

Collapse coming?  No one wants a new election....in fear of AfD numbers.

Two state elections coming up in the fall.....Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Saxony-Anhalt....both slated as 'wins' for AfD....if polling stays in line.

The one act that resolve this mess?  Either totally cut, or marginally cut the fuel-energy-CO2 tax (leaving the VAT sales tax in place).  This would cut roughly 30 cents off the cost of fuel.  

The problem?  The SPD uses the revenue made off this tax for a bunch of their 'gifts'  to SPD voters.  

ARD/ZDF (the two public TV players)?  Well...this whole story is marginally covered in  Saturday night's news.  If you did lay it out....Merz, the SPD, and element of the CDU....look pretty crappy. 

Unhappy German Voters

'Bild am Sontag'....the Sunday newspaper in Germany that a fair number of folks  read....will have results of a survey in tomorrow's edition....done by Insa.

So....70- percent of German eligible voters are dissatisfied with Chancellor Merz's work/accomplishments.

At this point....only 21 percent are satisfied. 

The coalition?   Well...73 percent of voters are dissatisfied.  Yeah, it is a record.

How it splits out politically? 69 percent of SPD voters and 56 percent of CDU/CSU supporters are dissatisfied with the coalition's performance. 

They also show more  disgruntled in the east....than the west.

What this leads onto?  There's no national election until early 2029.  The CDU-CSU and SPD folks are 'safe' at present.....but unless they can show accomplishments...things are in a crappy spiral.

Economics playing a large part of this?   Yeah....Merz  was supposed to be the guy to lead the nation back to prosperity. 

Crisis Chatter

From  an hour ago....in Berlin....near Lake Tegel....around 12:30....black limos pulled up.

Some kind of crisis meeting....CDU-CSU and SPD....gas talks....tax relief....tax burden....political BS.

Anyone's guess how much crap comes out of this.

If The Merz Coalition Collapsed?

 Well....you'd go to a new election.

Currently, with numbers....AfD would win with 26-percent....the CDU-CSU folks would likely get in the 24-to-25 percent range.  Rest?  Figure Greens at around 14-percent....Linke at 10-to-12 percent...SPD near 12-percent.  Maybe the FDP might get in there with 5-percent...enough to get seats.

AfD would be UNABLE to form a coalition....so after four weeks of failure....the CDU-CSU would get the chance to form a coalition.

To reach 50-percent or more....they'd have to partner with the Greens and FDP....a four-party 'mess'.

Merz in this leadership role?  No....I doubt it.  A whole new figure would emerge.

Lasting long?  With four coalition members?  No....I would imagine they'd last two years max.

All of a big sign for public trust?  Not really.

But if you were AfD....you could count on opposing this group, and gaining another five-to-eight points over that 26-point situation, and making the next election even more crappy for the CDU-CSU.

Sorry, if I seem overly pessimistic.

Where Is The German Gas/Energy Tax Spent?

As you might not remember....as you tank up....there are two taxes....one for the VAT (sales tax) and one for the Klima- und Transformationsfonds (KTF) — the federal Climate and Transformation Fund.

So where is the KTF cash spent? 

For 2025....the national system already generated around 16 billion Euro. 

They fund:

- Building renovation and heating replacement (e.g. subsidies for heat pumps, insulation, switching from gas/oil....the “Heizungstausch” deals).

- Expansion of renewable energies and energy-efficiency technologies.

- Electric mobility (charging infrastructure, e-car incentives, conversion of public transport fleets).

- Decarbonization of industry (hydrogen projects, carbon contracts for difference, efficiency upgrades)

- Electricity price relief for households and companies (indirectly lowers your Stromrechnung via various mechanisms).  If you pose the question....it's probably in the 5-to-10 percent range of savings mingled with your yearly bill.

- Other climate projects (rail infrastructure expansion, research into climate-neutral tech).

So the more you can contribute....the more they can give away or fund.  And if you were wondering about the 200-odd charging stations  that seem to exist between your house and work....which mostly seem empty....the excess funds paid for the rarely used charging stations.  The money was also used to give you a 2k Euro incentive to buy a E-car.  

Five Economic Realities Over Germany

 (This is my own personal list)

1.  Even with a number of years of marginal growth (mixed stagnation)....Germany is still considered Europe's top performer.    (It's amusing to  remember this fact)

2.  Even with all the negative 'chatter'.....Germany still runs one of the world’s largest current-account surpluses. 

3.  If a German company can't make what they consider a respectful profit....then they will disengage (quit making the product), or exit to a location where profit is possible. If you think you can control such a company (by gov't efforts)....you will end up with unemployed, and unhappy voters.

4.  From a FORSA 2025 survey....roughly 55-percent of German society complains of work-place stress....preventing them from being happy.  My German wife is among this group.  Oddly, between comp-time built up and regular leave (she turns 60 this year)....she has close to 48 days of leave for 2026.   As you might surmise....leave time doesn't lessen stress.  The whole nation feels this odd problem.

5. The bulk of German society has a equity problem....where they can't really convince banks to loan money for housing....which the gov't says there simply aren't enough homes/apartments....anyway.

Political Theatrics This Weekend

Back on Thursday AM....Chancellor Merz went to the Finance Minister (Klingbeil, SPD), and Economics Minister (Reiche, CDU)....asking them  to jointly present proposals for tax relief (over the escalating gas situation in Germany).

So 24 hours pass. Friday, the Finance Minister invited employers and unions to a high-level meeting. Reiche, went to the press and went  into a pretty critical commentary over the SPD's proposals.  For reference....the chief thing....was a profit-tax on gas/oil companies.  Her words?  "Expensive, ineffective, and constitutionally questionable." 

Things got heated, and Klingbeil mostly wanted Merz to yank on Reiche's chain. He had to....because the SPD is in such a weakened public perception (over the past year).

Merz did have a talk....from  what is suggested.....he told her to practice restraint. 

Merz caught in the middle?  Well...he kinda remembers how the SPD-led coalition in 2004 collapsed over money/tax issues.....and presently he appears drifting  toward the same 'mess'.

Where this is headed?  There's a fair amount of chatter today (Saturday) over dumping Reiche....within the CDU and CSU parties.

A bunch of them?  No.....it seems like there is a pro-SPD element within the CDU and CSU groups.  They have a point....they don't want a collapse, and things are pretty crappy if you have a forced-election right now.

Where all of this is headed?  

I'll make three observations:

1.  A lot of Germans remember 2024 and the SPD-led coalition collapsing.  Same path....same trend....arguing by SPD of new taxes.  This current trend reminds them of that spiral.

2.  I would imagine as Reiche gets 'dumped' (likely to happen shortly)....if you poll the parties at the end of April....the  CDU-CSU folks lose 2 points.

3.  As the profit-tax likely occurs (my belief is that it'll happen by early June)....the gas/oil companies will quietly add the tax to their costs, and pass it onto  the consumer.  Neither the SPD or CDU-CSU folks will admit this reality.  In fact, this might be so popular....that eventually every commercial company has profit-taxes.....which are all tied  in a bundle and passed onto consumers.  In a way....it is funny....but also tragic in how things occur these days.

As for who replaces Reiche?  I'm sure that Merz is asking around, and finding the top five CDU candidates on his list....all of them are saying no.  They all probably had critical comments over the profit-tax concept.

I will agree...it's a great 'show' to  view.

11 Apr 2026: Germany: 14 Things

 1.  AfD Party putting forward new agenda....requiring German schools to offer a homeland-studies class.  Probably won't be picked up by Greens or SPD....some CDU-voters might engage upon the idea.

One obvious point....education changes are a state-by-state thing...not a German federal mandate.  

2. NYT article:  Iran reportedly can’t 'fully' reopen the Strait of Hormuz.  Reason?  Well....they seem to lack planning and coordinates on where they 'dropped' them off, and they admit....don't have the equipment to remove them.

If you had $10,000 for investing purposes.....I'd go and buy stock in mine-detection companies....vast amount of spending is about to occur.

3.  Trump says Spain is out on trade-deals....no need to buy anything and import into the US, because of the base issue.  Amounts to?  Well.....2025....it was up around $20-plus billion.

Would imagine....Spain will have to walk around this topic and say they didn't understand the full problem. 

4.  German high fuel price issue?  Hot topic presently.

SPD Party wants a 'profit-tax'  on oil/gas companies....if they make above x-amount....serious taxes.  Who would deem high-profit situation?   Unknnown.  

But they did agree....the energy tax at the pump....ought to be lessen 'real-quick'.

Finally, they've started talking about a gas-price 'cap'.....where some gov't agency would say the price is max at 'X'.  

Whether the CDU-CSU will agree on the profit-tax or gas-price cap?  Unknown,

5.  Some  talk started up.....tunnel being discussed between Morocco and Spain.  Hype is that African trade would rapidly expand.  How you'd prevent massive migration surge on such a tunnel?  Unknown.

6.  N-24 item: At least two million Germans do not have access to 'fast-internet'.

7.  BASF (the company) and Ramstein AB...both report surge in UAPs being seen in the past 6 week....45 'events' for Ramstein, and 40 for BASF facilities.

Chinese? Russia? Aliens?  Unknown.  German Bundeswehr claims to have anti-UAP capabilities, but have yet to shoot down any of the UAPs.

8. SPD Party talking of increased audits of high-earners in Germany.

9.  Impending jet-fuel shortage in Europe?  Yeah.  Folks think in terms of travel, but it would affect air-cargo flights as well, and US air base situations.  Probably something that will pop up daily in May.

10.   What you really see from the Iran-US talks?  Two factions of Iranian  authority exist....one group wants to move on and leave the Mullah-era....the other is fairly attached to the past 47 years and wants the anti-US/Israel conditions to continue.

I asked Grok if there is a banking crisis brewing (more so than in 2025).  Response?   There apparently...in the past month....has developed some cash liquidity shortages.   How bad?  Most Iranian banks are running out of physical notes on a daily basis.  So to react....there are informal withdrawal caps of roughly $20 to $30. The rial currency?  It's fallen to historic lows (over 1.4–1.75 million per 1 USD).  Inflation hit 40-percent in March.

11.  Oddly, Europe seems to have bought significant volumes of Russian LNG in March.  

If you look at the numbers....it's reacting to lower deliveries from the Persian Gulf.

12.  Some kind of chatter going on in the UK.....PM office saying the nation needs to prepare for 'war'....but they aren't clear about who it is....to worry about.  I assume the evil-Russians.  I would guess that one-third of the nation would appreciate a Putin-invasion and consider it step-up from the Starmer era.

13.  I was looking at some German stat's..... only around 5.7 percent of German adults (between 30 and 44 years old) have sufficient equity to be able to take out a loan for a home of their own.  

It's a trend that has been developing over the past decade in Germany.

14.  This AM....locally for E10 fuel....2.04 Euro (down from last weekend, 2.17).

UK Story

 I sat this AM....reading a short report....from the UK Health Security Agency, UKHSA.

The PhD guys for them....said after analysis of 2025's summer....there were an estimated 1,504 heat-deaths in England last summer.

Basically....'heat-associated deaths'.  

Wanda and Carl....lingering out in the sun for six-odd hours...forgot to sip water, or wore the wrong clothing...got dehydrated....then slipped off to die.

I lived for four years in Arizona, and basically understand the concept of 'being-stupid'.    

What I might ask....did the PhD guys read or collect the death certificates, and did the 'authority' say heat-stress or dehydration, and I'm guessing in most of the 1,504 cases....the answer is no.

I'm also guessing (the story never told a complete data situation).....that ages weren't associated with the 1,504 folks.  In the Arizona environment....where the heat-stress was a issue...in most cases, it was folks over the age of fifty.  

The got-stupid syndrome?  Well....what I noticed in Arizona when the topic came up....folks usually got dehydrated fairly easy, and never seemed willing to recognize the signs.  If they did seek liquids...in the bad cases...they sought beer or coffee.  

Iranian Cash Chatter

 I asked AI (Grok) this AM to assemble a solution to the question.....how much money shifted out of Iran since 2000.....from the private 'holder'.  You know....'capital-flight'.

So that was a 15-minute effort by AI.  First, Grok noted...NO ONE in the gov't is collecting such data, and it's mostly non-Iranian sources who noticed such things.  Then Grok noted...the chief reason for the 'flight'....was inflation and avoiding local/regional banks (stability question).  

From 2015 to early-2025....the number comes up to around 145-billion dollars that left.  That's about 45-percent of the GDP.

For the period 2011 to 2015....the number amounts to about $10-Billion per year.

For 2025 by itself?  Well....curiously, the amount surged massively....figure in the mid $30-Billion range (like they knew things were going to spiral).

The period 2000 to 2011?  Mostly a guessing game, and figured in the $5-Billion a year range or less.

Clearly, a guy who ran a business and ran yearly profits....had zero interest in improving his business or putting the cash into Iranian banks for loan/savings value. 

So all this cash lingering in non-Iran banks?  Yeah.  

Associated with both the 'good-guys' and 'bad-guys'?  This has been brought up a good bit....where the Mullahs themselves have cash-flow, and they diverted money outside of Iran....to buy property and financial assets.  

Thoughts over $1-Trillion outside of the country?  This group saw no advantage (short-term or long-term) in keeping  their profits within Iran.  Zero trust is the key element....harming the banks.

Iran: A Balkanization Example

 I spent two hours yesterday going over Iran demographics.  If you wanted a perfect example relating to old Yugoslavia....Iran is it.

The chief group making up about 60-percent of the population....'true-Persians'....making up most of the population in the center and western portion of the country.  This is the Islamic Shia group, and makes the national identity of their religion....the central theme.

The Kurds?  They make up around 7-to-9 percent of the population, and relate to the Sunni-religion.  This group highly divided?  Oh yeah.

There's the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI/KDPI)....been around since 1946.  There's the Komala (Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan)....who lean a bit to the left.  There's the PJAK (Kurdistan Free Life Party).  And there's the PAK (Kurdistan Freedom Party).

Then you have the Baloch tribal folks....mostly around 2-to-3 percent of the population....who are Sunni.  They exist on the far SE of Iran, and relate more to a poverty 'class' than anything else.

Then you have the ethnic Arabs (making up around 3-percent of the  population....mostly concentrated in Khuzestan)....in the SW of Iran....cut out of the local oil profits.

Finally, you have the Azerbaijani (Azeri) Separatism (NW of Iran)....the big minority (figure between 16-to-20 percent of the country.

There's no doubt that as the leadership authority had oil profits rolling in....it benefited the Persian community more than any other group.  But these other groups could never find a connection to bridge gaps and unify.

It is a country that needs to fragment like Yugoslavia did.  If I were Trump....I'd connect to the SW and SE corners of the country....with the higher ethnic groups, and let them have the weapons to fragment the Persian landscape.

10 Apr 2026: Germany: 5 Things

 1.  Chancellor had a face-to-face meeting Thursday morning with the Finance Minister (SPD-guy).....didn't go well.  Merz wants tax relief over gas prices....Klingbell said 'no'.  

Poland yesterday dropped their VAT over fuel by over 50-percent.  

2.  Would appear that the once-a-day gas-price change mandate.....is not very popular with the public.

3. Yes, it does appear that a German government proposal allowing local authorities to block home purchases if buyers are suspected of "anti-constitutional" views, even absent any conviction or court ruling....exists (draft law).

Author?  The draft bill, advanced by SPD Construction Minister Verena Hubertz.

The way written....it would let municipalities exercise first refusal on properties after consulting the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (Verfassungsschutz) and other agencies.

So, yeah....there's a fair amount of criticism over this idea.  The CDU-CSU folks haven't said much.  SPD would need their support to pass it.

Legal?  I would imagine challenges will occur.

The chief issue I see...in various areas of eastern Germany....in some towns/cities....it's around 40-percent of the population who might fit into the 'block-home-purchases'.  You'd create 'dead-zones' over a decade with this type of law.

4.  I went back to review US base financial relationships in K-Town, Wiesbaden, and Stuttgart....with all this 'exit-NATO' chatter.

So, from 2019.....the US added up the amount of money they pump into Kaiserslautern, and it amounted to $1.2-billion from the base structure (to include  Landstuhl and the Army in K-Town), and military folks freely spending money.

Stuttgart?  Well...they don't really collect this kind of data (either on purpose or accidentally).  Best guess?  It's near one-third of the K-town number (figure around $400-million).

Wiesbaden?  Similar story as Stuttgart....data as a best guess.....near $400-million yearly.

In the cases of Wiesbaden/Stuttgart....if the Army up and left....there might be a one-year stumble, but both have the ability to recover and proceed on. 

In the case of  Kaiserslautern....it's probably a five-year stumble, and it'd require massive 'help' from the Pfalz state government to recover.

5. If you  haven't paid attention in the past ten days to Ireland....you might want to spend ten minutes reviewing the ongoing crisis.

On my civil-conflict-index  (1-to-10)....I'd say Ireland is close to a '4'.

To relate this in a clear fashion....the public has basically said 'enough' (mostly on immigration but includes other topics as well).  The police are saying if you need arresting for disturbing public safety....it's six months of jail.   

Well...the public went to halting police vehicles from refueling....triggering the national authority to say it's a police crisis....calling for the Irish Army to be ordered to 'help'.  Some Army enlisted are saying they won't participate in this type of action.

As fragile as the economy is....I'd say they are probably seven to ten days from a massive shut-down.  

The one odd thing that I seem to get from the landscape.....Irish people aren't really afraid of the police, the law,  or the authorities.  

If the authorities fail, or  the gov't falls?  Well....there's to be a messy immigration situation to develop, and thousand of migrants to leave for some safer land. 

When The Ukraine-Russia War Ends......

 Putin has two central issues: finding manpower for what used to exist in Russia, and having the economic strength to rebuild tanks, artillery, and combat equipment.

For the most part, if you believe the past four decades of Russian census-taking  was wildly inaccurate.....the next fifty years of Russian manpower will be utterly crap, and depend a great deal on attracting non-Russians to come in and replace the dead.

But the equipment problem becomes a comedy of sorts.

Mixed into the requirements....you have to figure that hundreds of guys want to be on the receiving end....taking 30-percent of the cost of each tank or helicopter....as their profit.  Some might be hoping for 50-percent.

So I expect the first decade to be a challenge....where dozens of folks are dragged in for execution...on profit-taking, and various programs are halted because so many took bribes/extra-profits.

This era?  Well....likely to be forty-plus years and have Putin's name attached to a great degree.

Q-and-A

 1.  All that German chatter last week....if you were from age 18 to 45 and German male.....needing 'permission' to be outside of Germany for 90-plus days....suddenly quiet?

Well....yeah, the chief of the Bundeswehr (German Army)....wrote a waiver and said it's NOT in effect.  I should mention here....he's SPD, and the number one candidate for the 2029 Chancellor election.  

2.  Gas prices dropping?

Today, around noon....it's expected to be near 2.05-to-2.07 in most places....very dramatic drop.  As long as peace talks continue in Pakistan with the US/Iran....it'll go this way.  By Sunday....I'd tank up....believing this peace-game won't last.

3.  Germans getting a lot of BS on the war?

I'd say from the Iranians...yeah, there's a campaign of misinformation going on, and journalists are trying to get a message out that the normal sources at the Pentagon....won't talk to them.

4.  How much has Germany made off pumped-up gas-tax revenues in the past month?

Well....the calculation that I saw on Focus....says half-a-billion Euro.  The Finance Ministry is fairly 'gleeful' but hoping folks don't ask questions.  If this were to go on for another 4 to 6 weeks?  I'd guess it hits 1-to-1.5 billion extra Euro.

5. 'Blood-rain' coming?

It's a odd weather development....there's a African dust-storm believed to arrive around Saturday night....with a rainy front from the Atlantic.   So if you live in Germany....you will notice some odd reddish coating on your car by Monday.

6. FDP Party has new leadership.....threatening the CDU in  some ways?

It's an odd 'play'.   Kubicki is the new party boss of the FDP, and the normal voters  of the party (center-center group.....anti-tax is their general offering)....has Merz and the CDU worried.  The typical guy who'd vote for FDP....is probably a CDU voter.  

Presently, the FDP is polling 4-percent.  I might project in 6 months....them being near 7-percent, but taking the 3 points from the CDU or CSU (marginally holding at 25-percent....2 points down from AfD). 

8.  Trump talking NATO base closings?

Yeah....he can't  quit NATO (Senate has to approve)....but he can shift troops around. 

My closure guesses?  Moron and Rota (Spain) are likely closed.  Spangdahlem is likely on a shift deal (I'm betting they get moved to Poland).  Lakenheath and Mildenhall are on my 50-50 list....likely being discussed.  

Army-wise?  You might see most of the Army in Germany on a 2-to-3 year removal list....maybe going to the Pacific theater. 

I'm also likely to believe that nuke assets will be removed out of Europe and Trump saying Putin is not a threat to security.

9.  Iran-US peace talks?

Hot in the news this AM....extra-hard anti-US Iranians leaders....saying 'it-ain't-right' to talk up peace against the moderate Iranian leadership.  So  I'm of the mind...by Monday, this whole  thing is dissolved, and they go back to full-scale war.

Why Pakistan is so pro-peace?  Well....they took cash from UAE and Saudi Arabia....up around 8-to-10 billion dollars....to be a defense component for them, and they haven't shown any interest in getting involved in the war.  So the UAE and Saudi Arabia are saying....pay the money back.  If peace talks fail....Pakistan is financially screwed.

10. Significant banking crisis for Iran?

Oddly, no one talks much about it.

The last crisis (2008)....it was pretty bad for about 6 to 12 months.  Presently, it seems  worse.

This current crisis for Iran involves clear indicators of banking sector distress: at least one major bank failure, multiple others at high risk of collapse, widespread liquidity and insolvency problems, service disruptions, and heavy government intervention through money printing and forced mergers. 

Some of this is recent....some are simply long-term problems that haven't been fixed/resolved...added with U.S./international sanctions, corruption, mismanagement, non-performing loans (NPLs), and fiscal dominance by the state, and have been worsened by recent conflict.

The 'big' bank....Ayandeh Bank....large private lender tied to regime-connected figures.....got into failure issues with nearly $5 billion in losses.  Mostly came from bad loans, self-lending to insiders/cronies, and  Ponzi-like practices (offering high interest rates while relying on inflationary money printing).  They only got saved by being force into a merger into the state-owned Bank Melli. I should add here....based on the end-result....the government had to print new-and-fresh money to cover losses.

Added to the mess....since 'war' started....major state banks like Bank Melli and Bank Sepah have suspended services.  Cause?  Well....those Israeli and American folks were conducting cyberattacks.   Then they were both bombing key structures  of the banks.  Naturally.....bank accounts were apparently frozen for many customers.  I should note this....it's not just the typical customer affected....but the upper-level gov't bosses...stuck with no cash flow as well.

The mullahs may think the country can run for weeks without cash flow....but reality is something totally different.

Train Story

 You board a train, or bus....in Germany...without a ticket.   When the conductor/audit-guy comes around....he'll assess the situation, and normally (like  99-percent of the time)....he'll ask you for your 'pass' (ID) and write up a legal document....with a 60-Euro fine.

Typically, you pay the fine on the spot....if not, then there's a summons to pay the fine in some city court situation.   Then this document is entered for your first 'warning'.

If you were stupid and went onto a 2nd, 3rd, or 4th event....that's when the collection mounts, and you start to get a judge involved.  Roughly, on average....this  occurs around 7,000 to 9,000 occasions a year in Germany.  This is where a jail sentence is talked about (up to 1-year).

So....I noted yesterday....the Attorney-General of Germany (SPD member)....wants to decriminalize this stuff.....no court action....no jail.

How the repeat offenders will be handled?  Unknown.

Lot of facts missing?  Yeah.

I looked it  up.....German states (16 of them) cover the cost of this court action....adds up to around 250 million Euro a year roughly. Fair amount of man-hours involved.

I also noted.....out of Frankfurt....they've almost given up the court action....simply telling the repeat offenders to pay 60 Euro on each occasion.

A lot of the repeat offenders being non-German? This is suggested via social media, but no real facts to support the idea.

I've been on trains and buses where an audit occurred, and the guy/gal didn't have a ticket.  I'd say that in 50-percent  of the cases.....they were non-German. I also noted that in 95-percent of cases....it's a male-thing (women rarely ride 'free'). 

California

"California was like a hot blonde who never had to try, everyone showed up, the drinks kept coming, life was easy. But eventually, the blonde turns 45, the dates stop coming… and the ride is over."

-- Adam Carolla: 

Back in the early 1980s....I spent 2 weeks driving around the state...admitting it was the most perfect place I'd ever 'toured'.  I saw it all...Hearst Castle, SF, LA, Burbank, California Redwoods, Death Valley, etc.

Today?  Even if you offered me a $150k a year salary-job.....I'd refuse the offer.  It's like you had 9-year-old kids running the gov't.....determined to destroy it.

If The US Exits NATO.....Would I Worry Over Russia Invading?

 NO.

Thanks to this Ukraine adventure....Putin has diminished his military by 99-percent....they aren't a threat to  anyone much now.

Now....if the war ends (God knows when)....and the idiot-Germans start buying oil/natural gas from the Russians.....to rearm and rebuild their military, then  I'd say in about 20-to-25 years....they'd have the force (but not the manpower) to be a reasonable threat.

The manpower 'thing'?  Killing off around half the whole male population between age 20 and 30....pretty much guarantees a marginal threat....for probably four decades or more.

But Germans are unlikely to buy into the marginal Russia threat, and will be stupid enough to buy natural gas....thus helping them to rearm.

It's an amazing story.....Europe really doesn't need the US military.  

ARD Propaganda News Story

 I sat last night and watched the 8 PM Channel One/ARD news......with a lead-off story from Iran.

It was a 100-percent propaganda piece....wonderful Iranian school teacher....living alone  in a ultra modern Tehran apartment....no head scarf while walking outside....walking her dog.

I paused at the end....thinking....what exactly did I just watch?  Best answer.....Iran propaganda to convince dimwit-Germans that they are almost like folks in Tehran.  

And ARD unable to grasp the design of the propaganda?  That was the funny thing.  You'd suspect at least five 'bosses' or prime-journalists being in the approval process.  At least one of them should have stood up and said 'pure-propaganda'.

This AM....there must have forty folks who identified the piece and laid out heavy criticism over public-TV propaganda.

If you went to view Sunday night's news program...it's not there.  The 10:30 piece is there instead.

A Little Story

  Over the extended weekend (4 days)....in Stuttgart, Germany....two guys were in a easter egg hunt in a wooded area with a group.

So....they look around, and find....glass container that has a label....saying “Polonium-210” (noted radiological weapon).

They call the  cops.

Authorities are reviewing the container.

This was the substance known for the 2006 poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko, a former KGB and FSB officer turned whistleblower, who died after ingesting tea laced with the radioactive material in a London hotel.

Faked-up?  Maybe.

If it were real?  Well....you'd start to ask if some German deaths were a bit unusual.

The Supposed 'Deal'?

 UK independent MP Andrew Bridgen says....with limited facts....Iran struck some type of secret oil deal with France, Switzerland, Austria, Italy, and Spain, which lead to those nation closing airspace to US military operations in exchange for safe tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Proof?  None...so far.

I asked Grok (AI) to find facts....there just weren't any to present.

Evidence that some tankers got out without a threat?  Some tankers have left the Gulf region....but trying to say they belonged to some country.....well, there's no evidence.

If some deal were proven?  It'd present a major NATO problem, and be the beginning of the end.

Most of the EU on shaky oil reserves?   Yeah, there is this fact.

So  I'm giving the story on my BS-index (1-to-10)...a '8' at this point....nothing much true. Course....facts would change my ranking.

Just Odd

 I've talked/essayed over the ICE-train episode from Friday....where some guy had some 'attack' planned.....lit some fire-works, and wounded in some  fashion around a dozen passengers.

Police arrested the guy, and did a search of his apartment....finding a Koran and copy of Hitler's Mein Kampf.

Typically....in 99-percent of cases....where you've held the guy more than 24 hours and likely to charge them....you make a public statement on 'John-A' (using this first  name and initial format).

Well....German police want to continue withholding the name of the 20-year-old right-wing radical attacker on the ICE.  

Social media hype?  Most Germans are saying it's a Middle Eastern name....so the police and authorities want to avoid this type of hype.

I thought about this, and it's odd timing....doing some terror act on a 4-day weekend....with a lot of 'bosses' on leave/holiday.  My bet?  Come Tuesday AM....some police 'boss' has returned from his trip and signs off on identifying the guy.

Naturally, if you asked me on the odds of some guy having both a copy of the Koran and Mein Kampf.....maybe it could be a regular German guy who is a bit confused and mentally impaired.....who happens to have some knives.

5 Apr 2026: Germany: 4 Things

 1.  Picked up the story from yesterday.....age 17 to 45 men in Germany....if you are leaving for 90-plus days....you need 'permission' to be out of the country.

So I asked Grok (AI) to note number of German affected.  15-million.

How many German guys are affected out of this....going to  university outside of the country....or working, playing pro-soccer, or just goofing off outside of Germany?  No rational number, but I take a guess at 100,000 in a average year who are fitting in a plus-90 day situation.

If the gov't did mandate a draft....then the problem comes up....based on polls....somewhere between 40 and  55 percent of young guys just would not participate.

2.  Reviewed latest poll....if a fed-election were forced....combined, the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition would ONLY total 38-percent.....not enough to win. Even with a four-partner situation....with the Greens....this might only get near 49 percent.

3.   Impending jet-fuel crisis....creating a massive wave of summer vacations  cancelled?  

Well...there's talk of this.  I'd say at the end of April....you'd have a better view of this.  If there were 30-to-40 percent of summer  flights curtailed....there would be a massive causality of economic woes to occur.  

4.  Fuel discount via tax-relief?  The German Economics Minister says 'NO'.

End of April....if E-10 fuel reaches 2.30 or more....Chancellor will be under enormous pressure for some type of tax-cut on fuels....my humble belief.

Impending Fuel Crisis

 Between the EU and the Merz-coalition....you get various hints now of 'changes' coming and a fuel-crisis coming to exist.

First, E-10 fuel cost this AM?  2.21 Euro per liter.  Roughly 46 cents from where it was 6 weeks ago.

The jet-fuel situation?  Pretty much all the German airports are saying there's no problem for April. But they are identifying destination airports where there is a fuel issue, and airlines will quietly curtail these (probably mid-to-late May). 

Fuel rationing?  EU talking a good bit about this....I would imagine some 'gimmick' will be in place by the end of April.  The amount per week? Unknown.

Escalating city-bus tickets?  With diesel up around 2.40 Euro per liter....yeah....there has to be either a elimination of some taxes at the pump, or tickets will have to go up by 20-percent.  I'd lay down a bet that this situation develops within two weeks.  I could even see the city bus folks meeting and curtailing 25-percent of the schedule because of limited fuel.

Massive chaos?  No....it hasn't reached that level where they have daily Chancellor/cabinet meetings.  If the fuel situation continues the spiral in June?  Well....yeah, that would be the point where E-10 fuel likely hits 3-Euro per liter, and the economy is wrecked-up for the majority of people.

Just implementing a speed limit/tempo deal.....on the autobahn....will shock some folks.  The talk is that will likely occur in May....120 kph would be the max.

Green Party chatter?  They are going to push for home-office maximum use.

Crazy times.....oddly, if you had bought into the E-car BS.....you'd be in a pretty secure situation.

Is There A German Term For 'Bat-Shit-Crazy'?

I would suggest four terms:

Total durchgeknallt (Totally wacky/unhinged)

Völlig bekloppt (Totally crazy/nuts)

Völlig bescheuert (Totally insane/stupid)

Komplett irre (Completely insane/out of their mind....considered  a nice term and wouldn't normally get someone angry) 

Now.....you could use:  Wahnsinnig (Insane) or Gaga (Colloquial for "nuts")....but I don't consider them as useful/effective.

If the German is in front of you (male or female)....I'd consider not uttering anything, unless it's not really their own fault.  Also....if you use batshit-crazy....don't anticipate them understanding the English phrase.

4 Apr 2026: Germany: 6 Things

 1.  Odd law in place.  If you are male, German, between 17 and 45....desiring to take 91 days or more....outside of the country....you now have to alert the Bundeswehr (German Army) of your intention.  And yes, they can stop you.

Did most German guys understand this when the law was written?  I doubt it.

Course....the folks that it mostly affects....German guys who'd go off to Spain and work in bars or cafes for the tourist-season.

Some German pointed out (on social media)....that if you were gone a month in old  DDR (East Germany)....same rule applied. Their 'slant'....Germany progresses monthly toward copying old DDR rules.

2. German aviation says....they have a adequate fuel supply through the end of April.....after that....there's problems.

3. Leipzig: 13-year-old Iraqi kid....beat a city bus driver...into a coma. At some point, the driver asked a group of kids to quiet-down....kid reacted.....head-butted the guy a couple of times, and knocked  him out.

Law says you can only prosecute the kid...if he is 14.  So....they will place him in some control-situation, and release within a year.

4.  Because of the impending fuel shortage (probably in mid-May)....the Linke and Green Party are now calling for a speed-limit on autobahns.  The limit discussed?  120 kph.  

If you ask about political chaos for May....I'd say it's approaching 4-to-5 star ratings.  I'd say there's a 50-50 chance of a control mechanism over how much fuel you can buy...coming shortly.

5.  SPD Party says they want ZERO VAT (sales tax) on healthy foods.

6.  German state agriculture ministers are calling for an investigation into the mental health of German farmers. Suicides are on a increase,  Lot of stress in the current landscape.

The Mentally Ill Right-Wing Extremist?

 Well....that ICE train attack I talked about this AM?  The German cops captured the guy.

From the story....he did scare some folks, they were mostly 'wounded' from the sound of the fireworks that were set off within the train compartment.

The cops captured the guy, and then later went to his apartment....finding a Koran,  and a copy of Hitler's Mein Kampf.

The chatter from the cops?  Mostly that he appears to be mentally ill.

If you were wondering....no, he does appear to be a German-German.....not some other nationality.

Charges?  Well....this judge will require a mental exam of the guy (age 20), but if he passes....there's attempted murder charges.

Me personally....I don't think he will pass the mental exam.

Fuel Comment

Today's price locally for E-10 gas in Germany (Wiesbaden area) is €2.18 per liter.

So....out of this....roughly €1.17–1.20 (about 53–55 %) consists of taxes and levies.

19-percent is VAT (sales tax).  The C02-levey comes to around 17-to-18 cents.  The energy tax comes to around 65 cents.  

As the gas 'dealers' deal with higher fuel costs....I would imagine the tax-revenue folks are exceptionally happy....the revenue bucket is overflowing.

The Odds Of A 130 KPH Tempo Limit On German Autobahns?

 It used to be 1-percent chance.....I think we are approaching in 2026....a 40-percent chance.

I looked it up last year.....around 30-percent of the autobahn system has a limit...either due to construction/renovation, or simply highly urbanized landscape.

The rest of the autobahn system?  Unlimited.  If you asked most Germans (at least 50-percent)....they will say that 130 Kph (81 mph) is their own personal limit.  I suspect that around 10-to-15 percent will say 100 Kph (62 mph) is their own personal limit.

Me personally? On a really clear day with marginal traffic and flat landscape....150 Kph (93 mph) is my limit, but I'm usually a 110 to 130 Kph limit-guy.

Politically.....we are quietly advancing in Germany to the point that the SPD, Greens and Linke Party will have near 40-percent of the vote, and I suspect as we get closer to 2029 (next election)....this will be hyped as top three issue.

Could individual states advance this?  It's well within their powers to advance a limit (most suggest 130 to be the limit).  

3 Apr 2026: Germany: 5 Things

 1.  Curious piece....around two million Euro being spent by German federal gov't.....to a external company....takes over tasks of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs for 2 years.  

Looking at cost....I'd say they get four-to-six PhD-level 'geeks' to do what the Ministry already does.

2.  Siegburg (NRW-state) last night....ICE train....masked-guy....on the train...lit firecrackers and talked up stabbing folks.

Dozen passengers injured in 'escaping'.

Cops investigating.

3.  WELT: 28k bridges on the 'need-to-renovate' list for Germany.

4.  Some teacher (German) wrote up a heavy criticism social-media piece of German high school kids.....extremely prone to violence.....some lacking basic hygiene expectations.

5.  Early this AM (Friday)....EU commissioner hints strongly of a fuel-rationing agenda coming up shortly.  No time given.

Based on Germany commentary....I don't see any 'limit' coming in April.  May might be a different story.

Key factor on air-travel....several spots might be a problem where a Frankfurt flight goes to x-country,  and jet-fuel is not possible...meaning the plane is stuck there.

Question also arises.....will public bus companies  have to jack  up prices to cover diesel going up?   

If Merz Goes

The clock ticks.....I'd say it's 50-50 whether Merz is gone by the next election. 

My five CDU likely candidates replacing him as Chancellor?

1. Hendrik Wüst (Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia)

2. Jens Spahn (Union parliamentary group leader / former Health Minister).

3. Daniel Günther (Minister-President of Schleswig-Holstein).

4. Carsten Linnemann (CDU General Secretary / key cabinet figure).

5. Julia Klöckner (President of the Bundestag / former Agriculture Minister).

If you were looking for  a finance/economics 'geek'....NONE of  them fill the bill.

I Bought Gas Today

 Had to fuel-up the car....23 liters of E-10 fuel....2.18 Euro a  liter.

Just over 50 Euro.

I told the wife at this rate....if the car could burn on vodka....would be cheaper to buy vodka at the grocery.

TV news guy brought up....German gov't for March....collected just over 300 Million Euro 'extra' for fuel tax revenue.   At present pace.....he figured German gov't would  collect almost 800-to-900 million extra for April, if nothing happens.

UK chatter?  They have enough jet fuel to keep  the current flight schedule on-track through the end of April....maybe a week into May.  Then.....rationing and flight-cuts have to occur.

Germans haven't said much....but I expect some type of warning by the end of April, and some flight cuts likely to be announced by mid-to-late  May.   Lufthansa went and said around  two-dozen planes are going  to be parked shortly....flight schedule to be curtailed.

Course....pressure is building.  

Odd news item?   Well....Russia has hinted in some way....they might bring naval  ship presence into the Gulf, and aide the US in securing safe passage.   If you did the  schedule....it'd take at least three weeks for a Russian  frigate or two  to arrive.

How Trump Will Break The Leaving-NATO News

 I don't think he'll say we are 'leaving' or exiting.  He'll just say....base-by-base....lessening of troops.....till the point that there's just a thousand or so military members left in Europe.

Congress will attempt to stop him (no doubt).....but he'll just keep saying 'we-intend-to-stay' until the number of troops reaches a thousand.

This knee-jerk reaction of European countries?  Well....they don't have the cash flow to increase their military. 

If I were Putin.....I'd talk all day long about the threat....forcing them to spend money unnecessarily.

2 April 2026: Germany: 5 Things

 1.  CDU-CSU parties.....meeting and discussing the 2-year 'grade' for  cannabis-legalization.....proclaiming it a failure, and wanting  to dump it.

Basically....illegal sales still continue on (not a shock).  Pro-cannabis folks aren't going to accept this idea.

2.  Noted a Merz poll this AM....only one out of seven voters 'happy' with his performance.....roughly 84-percent in some state of unhappiness.

3.  Yes, there is a Good-Friday movie ban list.....which the networks are told not to  run certain movies (I noted Atomic Blonde, Mad Max and Rambo were on the list).  Around 700 listed movies.  Streaming video services are not under the rule.

4.  SPD to lowest level in polling....12-percent.  

5.  In case you were wondering  about German gas prices relating to higher taxation....YEAH, the system is rigged in such a manner.  Tons of money pouring into the tax revenue pot.

Last Night: German Network TV

 Two things.

First, I sat and watched a unusual commercial....60-second piece.  Are you uninspired?  Are you lacking 'drive'?  Are you wandering aimlessly?  

It's roughly 50-seconds of this, and then they hint....you could find relief in the Bundeswehr (German Army).

Recruitment ad.

It is one of the best recruitment ads I've ever seen.

Second, both ARD/ZDF (the two public networks)....both hyped up the wolf episode in Hamburg (having bitten a German gal on the face in a store).  On the prime 8 PM news....it got a full 60 seconds.

The Fuel Crisis?

 Yesterday....I assessed the cost of E-10 fuel....forty Euro-Cents above what it was four weeks ago.  There's no shortage....at least in Germany.  But if you said the tanker business continues another month....then yeah, there's probably a shortage to  come.

Just a humble guess....but a  liter will likely hit 2.40 Euro within two weeks.

The odd thing....the EU came out and strongly suggested for this summer....not to plan massive trips....meaning driving or flying.

Lufthansa also came out and said....they are putting around 20 to 30 of their planes in storage status....because of impending fuel shortages.

My Thoughts: US Exiting NATO

 First.....remembering this is a Trump era....I'd write this as a 'show'.

I'd list NATO bases....just saying we are going to achieve zero-carbon on each  installation, with one exception.  

I'd keep around one single 3-star general, with a staff of 1,000 to 1,200...either in Stuttgart, Wiesbaden or Ramstein.

Then I'd talk about participation in exercises in Europe....but limit it to just five or six countries.  I wouldn't waste effort with the UK or Spain.

I'd hype up the zero-carbon thing....saying how it was a positive thing.

I'd tell NATO....if they ever were attacked by Russia....we'd send 'something' but I wouldn't really say what.

I'd take all those assets in Europe and transfer them to the Pacific....beefing up where I'd anticipate the next war.

Diego Garcia?  I'd convince locals to break the UK contract, and sign up a deal with us.

I'd write up a new special medal.....Cold War II....starting 27 December 1991, to today.  I'd give every GI on duty in Europe.....a 3-day pass for achieving 'peace'.

I'd go and meet with Putin and let him know.....those EU folks are crazy enough to buy your natural gas/oil.....to help you rebuild your military over the next ten years.   Don't goof this....would be my key advice to him.

NATO....script-wise....has achieved Star Wars success....nothing left to tell (of a story). 

The Word 'Übrigens'

 It's not a common word that you hear.....loosely translated....the meaning is 'by-the-way'.  Germans will use it to start a sentence....to say something 'extra' about the situation or problem..

Germany/Syrians

 I looked up the numbers for Syrians residing in Germany....on a deportation order.  At the end of 2025....there were in the 10,500 range.

Of this number....around 900 are on a 'tolerance' situation.  Of the remaining....it's mostly due to practical barriers, ongoing procedures, or humanitarian reasons.  

So if you use the 1.2-million total....roughly 99-percent are not on a deportation list.

From my German language class era....I had several conversations with Syrians.  I found most to be educated....enthusiastic about Germany...and not that hyped-up over religion.  

Oddly....the only ones with a serious desire to return to Syria....it's mostly those over age 50.  From age 30 and down....virtually no one seemed interested in ever returning to Syria.  This was the crowd actively seeking jobs....getting certified in skills, and getting a driver's license.

I'll be blunt....maybe the deport-folks will all be gone by the end of 2026...but I doubt that you see more than 50,000 leave by 2030 (total).

31 Mar 2026: Germany: 10 Things

 1.  Merz met yesterday with Syrian President.   Agreement.....over 4 years....around 800k of the 1.2-million Syrians in Germany to 'return' home.

Up front....if you were Syrian and on a deportation list....you go shortly (at least that's the Merz understanding).

If you asked me....of the 1.2-million, roughly half have solid jobs, and marginal interest in returning.  So I'm not buying into the 800k number.

Also of interest....Greens/SPD went highly negative on this announcement.

2.  Digital rape/violence case in Spain against Ulman?  Dumped....by Spanish prosecutor. German case is the only avenue possible at this point.

Odd way of wording by the Spanish prosecutor....couldn't find a competent standing....even though it occurred in his/her local district. 

3. Center of Hamburg....cops called.....local gal bit (in the face) by wolf.  Cops cornered the wolf.....malnourished and thin.  Being fed now, and will be released into a wooded area later.

4.  Spain has now blocked US military aircraft from its airspace and denied access to the Rota and Morón bases over the Iran conflict.

So....I'll just predict....about a  month or two after Iran's mess is settled....the two bases are permanently vacated by the US....declared of no use.   Probably the beginning of several US installations 'gone'.

5.  N-TV ran a German grid story.....bottlenecks are a serious issue now.....grid is apparently a decade behind on infrastructure renovation.

6. Couple of European countries having a gas-shortage....limiting customers to 30 liters of fuel per day.  Hasn't  been brought up in Germany...yet.

7. The Green Environment Minister of Rhineland-Palatinate praises "swarm power plants" in the Rhine as a solution to the energy transition problem.

Basically....you'd anchor these and as the river moved.....blades on the swarms would turn  to generate power.

Key issue?  Well.....you'd need a massive swarm of these units to get any real production.

8.  14-year-old German kid stabbed in front of his school in Hamburg Flottbek. 

9. German inflation jumped in March to 2.7-percent from 1.9-percent previously.

10.  From Sunday night....the ARD public forum-talk show "Caren Miosga"..... achieved the lowest ratings since September 1, 2025.

Topic for the show?   Collien Fernandes.

Approximately 2.21 million viewers watched the episode, in which Fernandes gave a talk of her accusations against her ex-husband Christian Ulmen.

Among the total audience, the market share of the current Miosga episode was 10.8 and almost 20 percentage points lower than that of the previous show...."Polizeiruf 110." Among 14- to 49-year-olds, only 330,000 Germans watched the show.

To be honest....I spent the evening watching 'Lets Dance' and as it concluded....went to a cooking show.  So I can't comment on the effect of the show.  

30 Mar 2026: Germany: 3 Things

 1.  I'll just say it....from a non-German prospective...this Ulmen-Fernandes situation/scandal/exposition/affair....over a two week period....seems to be in a hype-up media (news) 'bubble'.

I suspect if you drag this up with a hundred working-class Germans....roughly 50 to 60 of them can't really explain the nature of the situation,  And if you did package this into a 45-minute news-docu-type deal to explain the fourteen-odd details of the situation....they'd lose interest after eight minutes.

2. For about ten days, we've had this whale-problem in the Baltic Sea region of Germany.  

The whale originally got so near up on the beach....that  he lodged himself on a sandbar, and was 'stuck' (he couldn't wiggle out).

Germans....naturally good rescue folks....decided they could help him.  A crew of  characters....some science folks and some engineer types....got a vessel to dig around the sandbar and eventually got him 'loose'.  So they thought....now, he'll swim off to safety.

Well...for a brief period....maybe eight to  twelve hours, he lingered around and got sand-barred again. 

Again,  they pushed him out.

They've noted yesterday....he just ain't progressing out to sea. 

Oddly, they haven't named him (something Germans do when they are hard-wired to linger on the animal). 

3.  Germany has a Construction Ministry.  Over the weekend...the minister in charge suggested that at the federal level...they should be become a 'developer' (buying, designing,  and  hiring up construction teams to build the houses/apartment buildings).

On paper, it sounds like a marvelous idea.

The history of local, state and federal type projects?  Pretty dismal.

Q-and-A: German Public TV

 1.  Monthly cost presently?  18.36 Euro a month....doesn't matter how many TVs or radios you have in the house.

2.   Locations of Channel 1 (ARD) and Channel 2 (ZDF)?  ARD  - Hamburg.  ZDF - Mainz.

3.  Is there any real difference on news content?  Personal opinion....if you watch both....it's about sixty-percent of the same stuff....told slightly different. 

4. How many Germans watch ARD prime news (8 PM) on average?  Around 9.5-million....out of 84-million residents.

5.  Are there Germans who go out of their way NOT to watch ARD or ZDF?  Curiously, this topic has been studied....around 5-to-5.5-million are dedicated to watch no programming whatsoever. 

6.  Does ARD or ZDF have an 'edge' over the other?  Oddly....data suggests a 2-percent edge to more ZDF viewers....over ARD viewers.  Reason?  ZDF has a fair amount of soap-opera cop shows and  mountain-doctor-clinic shows around 6 PM to 8:15 PM, and older viewers are more consumed to watch this.

Forced To Travel

 The wife wants a week in Berlin for end of April.  So....ok....I did the price comparison to get there.

1st-class ICE train....there and back....880 Euro for two.  My trust in ICE getting me  there and back with NO issues?  Near 10-percent.

2nd-class Lufthansa mid-afternoon tickets...380 Euro for two (round-trip)...flying out of Frankfurt. But they wanted 70 Euro per bag...per person (that was my only grumble).  

Each has a assigned risk factor.  

You have to get to the Frankfurt airport...on a Sunday.  My wife is anti-taxi, and normally anti-bus/tram.  Once there....you have to do the bag-drag....then pass security.

The railway there?  You have to assume the local train will 'work' but some screw-up on ICE will occur. The snack-wagon on ICE?  Crap. 

Lufthansa or Bahn strike?  Well...you factor in this problem as well.

If you rode the train into Berlin....then you have the broke escalator issue going on, and the crime scene at the station  to contend with (same or more so....for Frankfurt).

I told the wife....would be a lot simpler to fly into Egypt.

29 Mar 2026: Germany: 5 Things

 1.  Since day one of this Christian Ulmen/ e-wife Collien Fernandes 'affair'....if you start counting....there are probably over one-hundred odd factors.  No matter who is telling the story....they all tend to leave about 90-percent of these factors out. 

German prosecutor attempting to take a Spain case....back into Germany and bring  Ulmen into court?  Mostly a bluff  (at this point).

2.   Starting 1 Apr...Heavy smokers will be 'entitled' to a free annual lung cancer screening examination.

Active and former smokers aged 50 to 75 can undergo a low-dose computed tomography (NDCT) scan every 12 months. 

Free?  Well....it'll be covered by your standard German statutory health insurance.

My gut feeling....lot of folks are going to be given negative news over their future health condition.

3.  Also starting 1 Apr....the Federal Ministry of Transport launches a new funding program for electric vehicle charging stations in apartment buildings. 

Around 500 million euros are available to install wallboxes, grid connections, and other technical equipment. 

Now....will apartment building owners want to do this?  I suggest they will review hazard reports and increased insurance costs....with a majority declining the hook-up.

4.  A fire broke out overnight in Kehl, near the border with Strasbourg.  Around 3AM.....Disco/lounge...club with 750 partygoers was on fire.

Shocker?  Every single person made it out.

Nuke Energy Discussion

 In the past week....Germany's Energy Minister commented: 'The phase-out of nuclear power was a huge mistake.'

So I'll lay out the whole story....as simply as I can.

Around  1990, as DDR ended....Kohl's people went to find East Germans who could fit into the CDU strategy....for political motives.  They eventually came to the conclusion....Merkel was 'it'.  She was invited for a coffee....Kohl had found his 'Eastie', and history is concreted  down.

The job for CDU bureaucrat Merkel?  Well.....she was a scientist...so the Energy Minister was the obvious job.

What she discovered  over the next year.....Germany's plan to bury nuke-waste....was not really supported by any state, and most science-minded folks felt it was 'wrong'. The path?  You'd have to eventually take down the nuke energy sector.  

To make up for this?  You'd run coal-plants, bump up solar/wind, and have some reserve energy via cheap Russian natural gas.

Kohl goes away....the SPD runs things  briefly.....Merkel builds her path to the Chancellor-job.

In this decade...it's decided that coal  is 'evil'.

Eventually....a massive amount of suffering funds (identified in the 30-to-35 billion Euro range) is put up....to shut down the coal 'pits' and coal energy sector....to retrain workers (particularly in the NW part of Germany).  But don't worry....wind/solar are bumped up, nuke energy still flows, and cheap Russian natural gas is covering the end of coal-energy.

Fukushima occurs.  Over a 2-to-3 year period....it's decided that evil-nuke-energy must end. There's some talk of keeping two or three around....but that plan gets dumped.  Don't worry....wind/solar get bumped up and cheap Russian natural gas covers things.

Then the war happen....with evil-Russia and Ukraine.  That strategy craps out  for natural gas.

So what you have is wind/solar, and on a really bad day....you go to the EU grid, and consume/buy power from  France  or 'friends'....at a hefty rate.  That grid-power....being nuke or coal?  Its best not to  bring that up.

So cherries on this cake?

Well....Bavaria (the state) would like to have a nuke-plant (or two)....the federal gov't said 'NO'....only they can authorize such.  Why does Bavaria want the nuke plants?  They realized that power requirements for industry are expanding.

More?  Austria has designed their nuke-energy burial sit....deep down....about five miles from the German border (Bavaria).....yeah, and this made the Germans angry.

More?  More and more of the high-energy consumer companies are reviewing the idea of exiting Germany....for cheaper grid countries.

Home price for power (2026) in Germany?  Around 37 Euro cent per kWh.  Some folks have exceptional long-term deals at 24  to  27 cents.

Homes hooked up for solar?  German authorities at the end of 2024 said it was 15-percent, with expectations by 2030 of 25-percent.  The problem to dispose of panels?  Yet-to-be-brought-up......but it'll shock some folks when the recycle yard starts quoting 200 Euro per panel.

It's not a happy story over what happened to nuke energy, and it's fairly amusing to look at German neighbors who didn't fall for the 'trap'.

The Trump 'Leave-Germany' Chatter

 A Brit newspaper brought up the topic....some insider to the Trump talk.

The story goes......Trump's team are evaluating removing troops from Germany, and re-establishing them in either Romania or Poland.

So I sat and pondered over the idea.

From a German prospective....there's two groups eyeballing this. One group knows  that the Pfalz state is highly dependent on the money spent....with the Wiesbaden and Stuttgart areas....lesser  concerned.  On the second group....they are highly anti-US and would  like for the troops to be gone. In general....I'd say sixty-percent of German society don't care one way or another.

K-Town/Landstuhl? Financially.....if the US totally left....it's a massive 'hole' that would exist, and you can figure a full decade of  suffering to be occurring.

As for leaving?   Poland would be a fifty-fifty situation....with some elements of society very much supporting the arrival, and another group disliking it.

My general prediction?  The Air Force only has three elements left in Germany....Spangdahlem and Ramstein.  The wing at Spang could easily be moved into Poland....figure about four years to build the base.  Ramstein?  Different story....you have the medical facility (yet to be completed), the  C-130 wing for cargo, and the HQ's.  

Ramstein since the 1980s....have built a  massive structure, and tens of billions invested for the extra-long haul.

The next-war mentality?   Today....it's totally geared toward China/Taiwan.

So I suspect....at the end of this review....Spang's element moves to Poland, and Ramstein remains 'mostly-as-is'.

On the Army business?  Some parts of what exists could easily move to Romania or Poland.

Germans grumbling?  Some might  grumble, but the majority will not care, or actually support the 'end'.

28 March: Germany: 5 Things

 1.  Over the past month....if you watch economic news in Germany....the chemical industry is telling the Merz coalition.....they can't afford the grid-price on electricity.

The various hints being given?  Rather than resolve the grid 'mess'....there's some suggestion going on....where the general public would subsidize electricity prices for the chemical industry. 

Adding another reason for  more taxes?  Yeah.

My solution? Give up producing chemicals in Germany, and ship all production to China.  If you ask me....this was a designed strategy to trigger public discontent, and ship jobs overseas.

2. Federal Council meeting on hunting of wolves to be allowed....from yesterday.  Expected to be 'permits' shortly.

3.  Austria, Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark and Greece have formed what I'd call a 'deportation coalition'. They are careful on wording but they want a couple  of 'hubs' to  serve as migrant deportation return  centers.

Who are the hubs?  I'd imagine 'dirt-poor' countries that can be enticed.  

Looking at the five....I'd take a humble guess that together....they have in the 400,000 range to 'deport'.

This will involve cash to some degree....you agree to take 10,000....you get 3,000 Euro (my guess) for each one taken.  30-million Euro to settle. 

The three problems here?  Court action to prevent the hub-situation....deportees arriving in x-country on a Monday, and headed back to Germany by Friday.....and most of the poverty countries giving a limit of 10,000 per year (meaning it'll take a decade to  resolve this mess).

But here's  the selling point....if you can make this work...AfD's brand diminishes.

4. Federal Transport Minister Patrick Schnieder (CDU) gave a talk on the Bahn (railway system).  In simple  terms....he says its so screwed up that people are losing confidence that it can ever be 'fixed'.

As a occasional rider....I'll just say that the Bahn has become awful technical, and there are a thousand components....which any one can break and be a safety issue. I might add....of thirty-odd rides since early 2025 for me....at least six have been screwed up (minimum of thirty minutes late).  Back in 2019....on a trip into Frankfurt....the train halted in the tunnel system...unable to proceed because the train in front of us had already broke.  We sat for a good 45 minutes there in the tunnel.

5.  Chatter started yesterday....state-regulated fuel prices being discussed.

Politicians are convinced that the 'system' is rigged for profit.  If you view it from opposite view....six  different taxes are at play, and each time the fuel advances 10-cents....taxation advances as well.  Germans aren't stupid....they will figure out this 'game'.