Explaining German Heat, AC Anxiety, And Reality

 Upon arrival in early 1978 to West Germany...being from Alabama...the 1978 summer for me was 'mild'.  Yeah...it did get up into the 34 C (93 F) range....but it wasn't that bad.

Anyone having AC? No.  Literally nowhere did  you find AC hooked-up/running.  Did Germans dress ultra casual?  Oh yeah.

Around 1984/1985 when I returned....same attitude, but less clothing and fans set up everywhere.

Around 1990s when I returned again?  Well....now folks were kinda engaged to not suffer....AC units (single room units) were selling.   Around 2001, I noted various Air Force folks were buying 400 Euro units.  Their German neighbors got 'weak' and they bought into the idea.

Around 2015....my German wife finally 'allowed' me to buy a 400 Euro unit...with stipulations.  First, it had to be 33 C or more (91.4 F).  The windows to the house....had to be closed at 11, and the AC unit went on at noon.....for a max of eight hours (to save energy).  Finally, by 10 PM....all windows in the house had to be opened....to allow the summer cooling-off effect to occur.

So....here's the weather talk.

Over a 10 year period....there are typically five years of moderate heat (say 20 days of 33 C or MORE....spread out over June, July and August.  You might have 2 days here....4  days there....1 day here....5 days there.  The rest of the summer....mostly 30 C downward to 18 C (86 F down to 65 F).  

The two harsh years of the ten?  This is where you have 30 to 45 days of full-blast heat....going for 10 days straight (minimum).  People talk about this....as the end of the world.  2003 was one of those memory years.

Then you  have the ultra moderate years (three out of ten)....where you have one single day of 32 C/higher in a month, and the rest are mostly 18 C to 25 C. 2024 was one of those ultra moderate years.

Fronts come in, move, and leave.  Occasionally....like 2003, the fronts 'stall'....where you end up with two to three weeks of miserable heat.  It's not some demon like 'climate-change'.....it's a lingering front that simply stalls.

In my village (well-to-do crowd)....I'd take a guess that 75-percent of folks have a single-unit AC device.  Older folks?  No.  

German hotels now with AC units?  Big-name places have AC.....which you pay  upwards to 150 Euro a night for the 'extras'.  

Offices having AC?  My wife's company has a building with AC built in.  But I'd take a guess that two-thirds of businesses have only fans...no AC. The Auslander-Buro (office for migrants/Green Card).....they are without AC units.

My 'demon'?  When it's a harsh summer and the 7th consecutive day of 35 C....trying to watch the nightly news and they desperately want you to fight the climate-change demon....I have to leave the room.

The best story?  My wife has a gym-partner who owns a 1890s house, and deep about 6 feet below the surface....there's a room that her husband has 'set-up'....where the room never gets above 23 C (naturally chilled).  The lady will escape around 10 PM, and comfortably sleep.

30 May 2026: Germany: 6 Things

 1.  The swapping out of the Chancellor idea.

There are basically three scenarios.

First, do nothing and keep Merz.  This would likely cause a continued downward spiral for the CDU and SPD parties....and by the next election (early 2029)...the CDU-CSU-SPD totals would be in the  combined 25-to-30-percent range.

Second, dump Merz and bring in Hendrik Wüst (Premier-President of the state of NRW). He's intellectual enough, and would likely be agreeable. On resolving economic problems....don't expect much. Next election results?  CDU-CSU likely in the 20 percent range...mostly because of economic woes.

Third, dump Merz and bring in Bavarian Premier-President Soder.  Roughly the same end-result....I might say next election results are in the 20-to-24 percent range.

So it doesn't matter....with any plan...the CDU weakens  itself.

2.  The German federal government is planning to participate in a new North-South Commission.  I had to look up the purpose.

It's mostly a group of 20 to 30 countries....well-to-do types and economic poor types.

Who the Germans are putting on for representation? Former Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

I'm not saying it's worthless....but it just seems like a media-output machine.

3. I got to reading a commentary yesterday, and the key 'pitch'....some things starting to add up....making the Merz-coalition resemble the 1920s Weimar-Republic.

This Weimar-period....roughly a dozen years....never seemed to lift-off or get ahead. Some folks feel the same in 2026.

4.  Mercosur trade deal.....yesterday....I came across a delivery of Brazilian coffee deal.

63 tons of green coffee from Brazil had arrived in Poland…got inspected.... damaged beans and live parasites inside.   

5.  EU says it'll be sanctioning the Chinese internet platform Temu with the help of the Digital Services Act. 

Reaction by China?  Not yet...but by the middle-of-June....I expect China to stage  a EU-meeting.

6.  I sat this week and was watching a SWR(regional public network) news piece (for the Pfalz state).

Some wife got stabbed by the husband 43 times.  I asked my German wife....where this craziness comes from....she responded it's not a German couple. Yeah, what SWR left out of the story....the couple (both)...were Turks.

Yeah, my wife has developed a perception on the news....if it sounds crazy....it's not a German involved.

7. I watched five segments of the ARD/ZDF public TV news....where they wanted me to know of six heat-deaths via drowning.....which led back to global warming.

I asked AI about this...from a 1930s prospective.  From 1930 to 1940.....the number of drownings per year in  Germany....ranged from 3,000 to  3,600. Curiously, prior to 1913....when funding came up to have swimming courses....the average was in the 5,000 per year range.  The past 20 years?  Well....it goes from 300 to  500 deaths per year from drowning.

So, I asked AI...what were the chief causes of drowning. Grok pointed out....the warmer the weather....the more of a 'magnet' lakes are  for cooling off.....so it's  very unlikely to drown in Germany when the temp's are 15 to 20 C....very likely when it's 30-plus.

But then, we come to the 'other' factors: Common aggravating factors....like alcohol use (impairs judgment/balance; involved in up to ~70% of adult recreational water deaths), fatigue/exhaustion, inadequate supervision (especially of kids), overconfidence in swimming ability, and not wearing life jackets. (CDC)

Quote of the Week

 Last night (Thursday).....via the Lanz chat-forum show....semi-retired CDU politician Roland Koch commented on the coalition decline going on, and said: "We are in a captivity with the SPD."

Meaning....the CDU-CSU folks can't really act on any of their goals/ambitions.

I won't disagree, but this is how the 50-percent-plus coalition 'handicap' works.

The 'Cheap' Russia-West Germany Natural Gas Deal

 The West German–Soviet (Russian) natural gas deal was signed on February 1, 1970.

Who  signed?  Well....it wasn't Willy Brandt (the Chancellor).  It was done by West German Economics Minister Karl Schiller and Soviet Foreign Trade Minister Nikolai Patolichev.  This was part of Willy Brandt’s Ostpolitik policy of détente with the Soviets and simply the next leg (already with  Austria in  1968 and Italy in 1969.

The pipe?  Well....West German of course.

Who financed the whole thing?  A group of 17 West German banks (led by Deutsche Bank) provided a long-term loan...6-percent interest if you were curious....on what the Soviets needed.  

Risky?  Credit risks were underwritten by the West German government’s export-credit agency.

The end piece?  Throughout the the era of 1970 to 2022....it powered German industry. When the invasion occurred and the Germans ended the 'deal'....that really started the collapse of German economy.

29 May 2026: Germany: 7 Things

1.   CDU politician openly offered his opinion: Care-dependent individuals should sell their house if necessary.

If you wonder why older Germans are less inclined to vote CDU....yeah, this would be a big reason.

2.  About two months ago....German story came  up....Bundestag (CDU-led coalition) wanted to 'vet' future home-buyers (suggesting if you were right-wing....the states could deny you purchasing a property).

Well....it came out yesterday....that draft-law....dropped.   Public attention got pretty negative.

3.  Timmy-the-whale-warning?  Dutch authorities are still figuring what to do over the dead whale body.  Warning yesterday....if you near the body, and it finally 'explodes'....it could kill you.

4.  Starts in June in Germany....if you produce solar energy....you can 'sell' it to your neighbor. 

5.  They put the tip of my region in the 'supercell-warning' area for Saturday.....heavy rain, hail and tornados possible.

6. WELT article points out....majority of voters now 'right-of-center'....with the coalition designed in some form to be left-of-center.

7. Went out to eat in mid-town Wiesbaden at 5 PM yesterday.

What you notice....pubs, restaurants and cafes....very active.  Lot of people consuming wine/beer.   Fashion trend in turbo-mood.  Obvious...people are spending money.   Happy-hour concept  (locally at 2  PM to 5 PM) being developed/pushed....with .3-liter beers at 2 Euro each or half-liter at 3 Euro.

Things seem more active now.....comparable to 2019 (last year prior to Covid).

AfD Topic

 Germany's AfD leader Alice Weidel said this week.....she wants the EU abolished and power returned to individual European nations.

Hot priority with Germans? Not really.

I've seen various polls over the past five years....it's never more than 30-percent of German society who wants the German participation in the EU dissolved.

I suspect....if you approached a hundred adults in Germany....they might agree...the EU can be reckless and out-of-control on occasion, but if you asked them to rank this as a problem to fix....it's not in their top 500 issues.

Having lived around West Germany in the 1970s/1980s, and remembering the various border problems/issues....you need something like the EU....but you need to limit their days at 'work'....keeping sessions to just 60-to-90 days a year.   You don't need them looking for fresh new problems to solve.

Poor choice of stuff to offer AfD-voters?  I can think of a dozen things which might be more appreciated.   

How Merz 'Failed' (Never-Got-Ahead) As Chancellor

 Look....Merz was 'sold' as the smart economics guy that could rebrand Germany....dissolve the downward trend....and would build a path to 'old days' (prosperity years).

The CDU Party sold this....the news media sold this....and there simply wasn't a more positive alternative.

Merz walked in, and found the first boundary....he'd have to partner with the SPD Party, and the Finance Ministry would be their territory.  I'd say that most of the first twelve months were wasted on stumbling around with this conservative/liberal relationship, and continually focused on increased taxes.

His past with Blackrock?  Well....after a while, you'd start to wonder if he ever had much success with them.

Thinking there is a better alternative in the CDU or CSU ranks?  I'm not really that convinced of that idea.  Polls mostly show a majority of Germans (say 30-percent) don't see any great options....from any party.

Next federal election (unless the coalition collapses)?  Early 2029.  

28 May 2026: Germany: 8 Things

 1. Markus Lanz public forum show from last night (Wed): lot of talk over Merz  probably gone by end of the year  from Chancellor job.  Problem I see at this point....Germany needs a economic 'kick', and having the SPD as a partner in the coalition....probably doesn't achieve much of a kick.

So....once Merz leaves....the new guy arrives....don't expect much except for new elections within 12 months (my bet).

2.  Some NATO assessment....suggesting Putin is at the bottom of the barrel for military manpower, and the only obvious way out....stage a front into Europe and take over a few countries to invent new manpower.

Biggest BS assessment I've read in past five years.

3.  German Defense Ministry says they are preparing for a mandatory situation for upping reservist manpower. Volunteer situation marginally working.

4.  CDU Party wrote up resignation letters for AfD members in the Bundestag....that they could write their name in and sign...quitting.  Partly as a joke....partly to make a point. Sounds like some gimmick that 12-year old kids would dream up.

5.  Fusion reactor being discussed......possible future for nuke-energy.

6.  Head-guy of the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, Sinan Selen, says there's a threat to democracy. For this reason, he wants to grant his agency more extensive powers in order to address it more effectively. He more or  less said.....among other things, the computers and cell phones of target individuals are to be spied on.

Folks might appreciate the spying effort....especially since China, Russia and the US probably already spy on them.

7.  Pope Leo said in a statement....AI must be 'disarmed'.

Seems like a exorcism would be next up.  Don't know how AI would react if demons were cast out.

8.  Last day or two....Spanish anti-corruption police raided the HQ of the ruling PSOE Party.  Various reasons given....one suggests that Venezuela delivered funds to the party.....to ensure public votes.

Germany: US Troops Withdrawal

 The German Defense Minister (Pistorius, SPD) had a meeting geared for this week in DC....to talk over the 5,000 exiting plan....but the US War Secretary....said 'no' to the meeting.

So Defense Minister Pistorius canceled a scheduled U.S. visit.

Any blame to dish out on Merz? Marginal amount.

I don't see this occurring in 2026....and it might be into 2027 before the full exit occurs.

Wiesbaden And The Tram Chatter

 Tomorrow (Thur)....there's supposed to be another city-hall meeting....discussing the tram idea.

For probably fifty years....there's been an agenda to bring trams to Wiesbaden.  We currently exist with mostly bus service, and some train service to the outlying region. If  you gaze over at Mainz....two tram lines exist.

Negative view within Wiesbaden?  I'd say two values pop up....one....no one wants public access around the city messed up for three-plus years. The second....no one wants the noise situation.

The city planners?  If approved, they want it to start around the 'tent' in Mainz-Kastel (to the far SE of town)....reach the train-station, and end somewhere around the HSK (clinic) on the far west of town.

The last time this topic came up....a public vote occurred, and the NO won by 10-to-15 points.

The only way you could get this passed?  Mostly go and avoid urban zones and make it worthless to get hyped-up about.

Do Most German Deaths Occur In The Heat Period?

 Well....NO.

According to official statistics from the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), Germany records roughly 1.006–1.008 million deaths per year in recent years (2024: 1,007,758; 2025: 1,006,346). 

So....they break it down by months....where 83,900 should  be the monthly average of deaths.

Winter months (especially December–March) have significantly higher numbers (often 85,000–98,000-plus), mainly due to respiratory illnesses, accidents, flu, cold weather, and cardiovascular issues.

Using 2024/2025 data.

Month            Average deaths (approx.)        Notes

January                97,600                                Highest month

February              89,600                                High

March                  89,700                                High

April                    81,100                                Medium

May                     80,200                                Medium

June                     76,500                                Low

July                      77,600                                Low

August                 78,000                                Low

September            76,700                                Lowest

October                85,100                                Rising

November            84,500                                Medium-high

December             90,600                                Higher

So.....in blunt terms....Germans may die from summer heat (global  warming), but the more death period is in the winter months, and you ought to be forewarned....be careful.  Don't be stupid and fail to hydrate yourself.

Trusted-Agent News

 I sat and read through a wordy-piece today....it appears that Germany’s state media 'regulators' are preparing some new rules that could force Apps like X, Facebook, TikTok and Instagram to give greater visibility to “trusted” or “reliable” media outlets in their algorithms. 

The jest....if approved....and you went to search for a news item....the ARD or ZDF news piece would appear 'first'.  If you searched via Twitter for the item....again, it'd be the public piece popping up first.

My humble thoughts....on day one, this might work for three to seven days. Then as you view the trusted-source.....you probably would ask five to ten questions which were left out of their story.  Then you'd view the secondary sources, and grumble that they laid out more facts.

A month or two later....the 'reliable' source would be skipped without hesitation.

Key issue....ARD/ZDF would be under intense pressure to produce massive amounts of news (stuff they don't create content on today)....with trusted-agent-bosses trying to continually limit news or approval to publish.  I don't think any of these politicians have insight of the 'machine' they'd have to create...to make this work.

Historical story....in the mid-1980s...Stars and Stripes had this article they wanted to tell....from a German Defense Minister on a hardcore binge-drinking episode while in the Hamburg red-light district.  Most all German newspapers ran the story on Monday....the lesser news print sources.....Tuesday and Wednesday.  By Wed, Stars and Stripes tried to tell the story but the 4-star general (EUCOM boss) held the story up for two extra day.....allowing it only to be told in limited words, and about five days after the German press told the story.  If you were a GI in Germany and read through  BILD or local newspapers....you knew about this.  If you relied upon S&S?  You were 'protected'.  

Merz Gone By Fall As Chancellor?

 Well...some chatter started up....insider CDU Party folks....saying a review is underway....how to write the script for this 'change'.

The only two replacements being discussed?  

Markus Söder (CSU) — CSU chairman (since 2019) and Minister-President of Bavaria. 

Hendrik Wüst (CDU, Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia).

If you were leaning toward a 'copy' of Merkel....Wüst is the guy.  If you wanted a public figure who was the opposite of Merkel....Söder is the guy.

How this would occur....someone would trigger a confidence-vote (probably at the beginning of the fall session).  Merz fails....the party meets and in one weekend....a name comes up.  

27 May 2026: 6 Things

 1.  WDR (public TV sub-network for NW Germany) having budget meetings.....to find cuts.  For programming not in the core time (say 8:15PM to midnight)....budget cut of 50-percent anticipated.

The 'bump-up' in TV tax....did not occur.....so they intend to demonstrate affects.

2.  I noticed yesterday......that the Netherlands is advancing repatriation centers outside the EU idea. Germany is also participating in the push against migrants required to leave the country.  So far, the destination location  isn't openly discussed much....but I would imagine it's in Africa.

3. The German long-term care insurance is running out of money. 

According to Federal Health Minister Warken....she wants to correct the blame she places on her predecessors in office with higher contributions. The fix? If you don't produce kids....you get increased cost.

4.  NTV-report: one in five Germans still smoke.  

5. Heat stress a big deal?  Over in France...past week....several folks dead.  Having lived for four years in Arizona....I'll just say that if you don't start the day with a hydration-plan (sipping throughout the day)....you are at risk.  If you under-hydrate and in your senior-years...just simply taking risks.

6.  I noticed a discussion going on....some German gov't authorities are open to the idea of having a AI-system which reviews chatter/news, and determines if it has 'hate-speech' (thus it could be easily deleted).   Who would write the code and determine hate-values? Unknown

Personal thoughts....you might end up with a system that one day shuts down all chatter...even the gov't commentary....because it believes 'hate-speech' is uttered.  I'm also wondering...if you know the 'code' and got a second AI system involved to write 'safe-but-hate-speech' words....would the bad-boy AI 'beat' the save-the-society AI?

26 May 2026: Germany: 4 Things

 1.  Fourth day in a row....with a 30 C (86 F) temperature.  Not boiling hot....just leaves the structure fairly warm at night.

2.  German gov't talking over the idea...instead of giving poverty-Germans 50-Euro to spend on public transportation tickets per month....give them the ticket. 

3. Around 50-percent of all flights lifting off  in Germany....are classified as short-haul flights (like going to Rome or London).  I don't know why folks are hyped about this fact....you sure as hell don't want to ride the rail-system, and 'hope' you get there.

4.  Ursula von der Leyen (President of the European Commission), quote: “We must consider temporarily suspending social media.”

I pondered over it....halfway measure.  They need to cut all newscasts....just giving you sports news, police news, and weather predictions.  

Could The MDR Public TV Be Shut-Down?

 Well....this is an interesting 'talk'.

MDR is a sub-unit....under ARD (national public TV in Germany)....'owned' by three eastern states (Saxony/Sachsen, Saxony-Anhalt/Sachsen-Anhalt, and Thuringia/Thüringen).  

If the three states as a whole....came up and said to dissolve....that would end MDR.

So there's talk....that elections are coming up over the next two  years, and there's a potential outcome....where AfD...comes to power in all three.

AfD?  They've hinted that the network has 'trust' issues.

National problem?  The rest of the sub-networks are fairly 'safe' at this point. 

If you asked most Germans if they are happy about the TV-tax....under the age of 30....most will say they don't use public TV much.  The age-50-and-over?  Probably up toward 60-percent like the public TV option.

This might be an interesting political discussion.

INSA Poll

 INSA does a lot of polls....which lead people to ask further questions.

So I read through a poll this AM....asking Germans about the state of freedom of opinion in Germany.  Roughly 84 percent of respondents are 'concerned' about the current state of freedom of opinion.

Added to this polling....64-percent of Germans believe that there is no conceivable coalition capable of fixing this.

What you generally see....in a group of Germans (say they each know the political slant of their group)....they are willing to share a pretty dynamic opinion,  but if this is a public setting with strangers....they generally keep their opinion private.

If you were to mix this with journalists....they might share one or two insights, but it won't be the 'blunt' truth that they hold.

The fact that two-thirds of society see no coalition able to resolve this problem?  It's a untouchable problem.

25 May 2026: Germany: 6 Things

 1. The wife and I, with 4 others, went to a Italian restaurant last night. Popular place....40 tables....enough space for 120 folks.  Sunday evening....holiday on Monday....expected the place to be overflowing.

Well...parking lot was only around one-third full....maybe forty folks there. Gazing at the menu....prices up....maybe 15-to-20 percent.  Pizza and water for me, with a espresso at the end....25-Euro.  

Yeah, inflation has started to affect German's habits.

2.  Ukraine getting some entry deal into the EU?  Well....there's talk of creating a path.  Merz is apparently going to press for some type of 'deal'.

3. When I arrived in early 1978 in Germany....the topic of summer heat came up with a older German co-worker at Rhein-Main Air Base. For about 10 minutes....he talked over the heat from late May to late August of 1976....where a frontal system stalled and triggered a hundred-day drought, and high temp's.

Even today....the weather folks will hype that one  single year.

4.  German gov't talking for health insurance reform....to force civil servants onto the path for public package.

5.  There's a wind generator in Bavaria...near the A-7 autobahn....which caught on fire yesterday.  Fire crews can't really get to it....so it's been  burning for about 24 hours (oil in it keeps it going).

6. German industry is reporting profits (first good indicator since mid-2023)....while reporting dismissal of 100,000 workers.

24 May 2026: Germany: 6 Things

 1. Someone decided that a gay poll needed to be done in Germany....don't ask me why.

So....gays/lesbians....suggest that around 28-percent of them vote for AfD.  I tried to reason the cause for this....but came up with nothing.

Second place...Greens....near 20-percent.  SPD near 12-percent. CDU-CSU...near 18-percent.

I'm not saying this is a big deal....just a odd statistic.  Before the poll was done....I'd say that one-third of gays were Green Party folks.

2.  Big brawl involving around 40 people broke out in Mockrehna, northern Saxony, on Friday evening (sun hadn't gone down yet). Seven folks were injured, four of who were taken off by ambulance.  Video that I saw....men and women....bats and broom-sticks.

One group/element were reported to be Bulgarian in nature....second group unknown.  No one says cause.

3.  Focus interviewed a number of Germans on vacation near the Garda Sea (Italy).  Chief complaint.....Chancellor Merz can't do the job.

4.  Some Turkish guy got arrested and went to court for selling virtual cows. It would appear that over 100,000 Turks got into this 'gimmick'.  Court says guilty....sending the guy off  for 45,376 years of prison.

The Crime? Well....launching a massive cryptocurrency and online-game scam....defrauding thousands of investors out of millions by promising high returns from non-existent livestock operations.

Me personally?  The first 7,000 years ought to go without any issues.  Somewhere around year 35,000....the judge might release the guy 'early'.

5.   ADAC, the emergency car 'service'....upping it's membership fee....by 25-percent.  Still worth the money.

6.  Heat wave today in my valley.....31 C (88 F).  Highest temp of the year so far. Number of days so far at 30 C-plus: counting today....2.

World Cup Problem

This past week...I've watched two podcasts...one dealing with World Cup soccer chatter, and the other with hotels in World Cup locations...in fear of lacking reservations.

So, the chatter is mostly centered on a lack of fans coming to spend money to watch the games.

Tickets being privately marketed for $2,000....for what would be a 200 Euro pricing situation?  Yeah.

Hotel rooms marketed for $2,500 a night (luxury-plus) for what would be normally $250 a night?  Yeah.

Will there be stadiums filled with 20-percent of fans?  Normally in the first round....with marginal teams in the mix....you would not see filled stadiums.  Those hotels thinking they can market $200 a night hotel rooms for $1,000?  They were obviously stupid.

The key thing will be the quarter-finals....if you have folks  unwilling to pay $1,000 for a $100-ticket.

This Syrian Deportation Dilemma

 The German federal authorities say....there's in the range of 10,000 to 11,000 Syrians on a deportation order....meaning they've done things (probably drug sales, assaults or made no effort to integrate)...to  deserve deportation.

Issue?  Well....they need entry permits to return back to Syria.  In the news this week, it came up that Syria has declined the pass-permit request for this group.

What'll happen?  My best guess is that Syria can be influenced with a cash situation...probably in the region of 50,000 Euro per individual. Yeah....figure 500-million Euro to get some deal going.

Hurting public support with the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition if they have to 'buy' a way out?  Yeah....that's the negative.

This being the only group on deportation orders? No....as of late March (2026)....there's 237,000-plus folks on orders to leave.   If you do the numbers....roughly 20,000 individuals yearly....leave, but there's always a 'incoming' group to keep the numbers inflated to 200k-plus.

22 May 2026: Germany: 7 Things

 1. Russia/Putin:  From this trip to China....if you measure the activities/honors....Putin got about a quarter of the attention that Trump did.  

I would add....some financial data from the Russian gov't has come out....noting that around 11-percent of all bank loans for commercial property are 'life-less' (the ability to cover is zero....so the Russian banks are sitting on dead-weight). 

2.  Kevelaer, Germany (NW):  School project for 14-year old kids in sex-class.....they were given the idea of setting up a red-light-district 'house' and setting up a 'menu' for services.  School director said there was nothing 'crazy' about the project.

3.  This reform idea of setting retirement in Germany at 70 (from 67).....but would not come into play until 2060.

Maybe if we were talking about bank clerks, or bakery folks....it might work. But for about half of all jobs....age 70 won't work.

4.  Tom Kaulitz....one of the Tokyo Hotel band members....has signed some contract to be a soccer-expert for the World Cup games. 

5.  Bus safety inspections.....I noted a story that one out of every five German bus inspections....is a failure.

6.  Plagiarism 'hunter' Stefan Weber now says there are 125 'problems' with the thesis of Thüringen's Minister-President Mario Voigt (CDU).

What will likely happen?  University will have to devote some time, and determine if true, and how bad the situation is.  

7.  German fast-track divorces discussed now.....if there is some element of violence.

Sachsen: INSA Poll

 State election not until 2029 (fall):

AfD leads with 42-percent.

CDU with 21-percent.

SPD with 6-percent.

BSW with 7-percent.

Greens with 6-percent.

Linke with 9-percent.

Long way away from election....but lays out the path of a problem....no one will partner with AfD...leaving the CDU (2nd place) to form a gov't with 4 partners.

21 May 2026: Germany: 7 Things

 1.  Timmy-the-dead-whale-update: Well....during the recovery of the whale's body....the animal experts determined Timmy was a lady-whale.  How they missed this fact during the 'help-and-rescue' business?  No idea.

2.  Marcel Reif, noted German sports journalist....gave a talk yesterday....saying if AfD comes to power....he will exit Germany.

I looked for polling....one came up for 2023....where Germans were asked about leaving if AfD came to power, and number cited was 15-percent.  However...they didn't ask where exactly these folks would go.

My wife (German in nature) will get unhinged on occasion and say some leave-Germany-BS.....but she can never cite where this dream-land would be.

3.  German Interior Ministry has this idea to offer....to get Syrians to return 'home'.  Deal?  8k Euro.

Yeah, lot of criticism popped  up over this amount of money suggested. 

4.  Some discussion popping up over VAT (sales tax) reform.  Suggestion popped up with the idea...ZERO VAT for food items....but the normal VAT would go to 21-percent (from current 19-percent).

5.  Last night....I watched a interview with FOCUS columnist Jan Fleischhauer, on the ARD talk show "Maischberger."

His chief point....that Germany would be better off with a CDU-CSU-Green coalition.

Quote:  "I believe the country would be further along today if there had been a black-green coalition, because the SPD is such a worn-out, broken bunch. As a psychologist, you would say it only shows regressive tendencies. Yes, that's true!"

7. Tempelhof update: For those Americans who might have been stationed in Berlin...during the 'glory-days'....the discussion of re-use is still going on of the airfield.

Present idea?  To build 21,400 new apartments on the former airport grounds, 30 percent of which would be reserved for people with housing vouchers. Runway/ramps....to be left as is...with a light woods to be planted on one side.

Berlin will hold elections in September, and the development of Tempelhof Field will once again be a campaign issue. 

To some degree....I'd  say around 30-to-40 percent of the Berlin public don't want anything done with the field/runway....just making the whole thing a 'park'.  This  group doesn't want it turning into a drug-use-park.  

My Crystal Ball On German Politics Over The Next 3 Years

 Only my speculation....where things are leaning right now.

First, confidence with the public with Chancellor Merz is dwindling....to the degree that within three months...I predict that the CDU Party will meet and lead Merz to hand party-leadership over to Bavaria's CSU 'Boss'....Soder.

At that point...for the remainder of the year....ZDF and ARD (the two public TV networks) will weekly interview and 'hype' Soder....leading to a lesser view of Merz.  Around the end of 2026....the CDU executive committee will talk to Merz and say....for the good of  upcoming state elections in 2027, you need to cite some  reason to leave.    

Then based on CDU-CSU-SPD support....Soder gets the role.

AfD?  By January of 2027....I see them close to 33-percent of public support, and the CDU-CSU folks near 19-percent. 

2027 will be a odd year.....where some marginal improvement occurs for the CDU-CSU (back up to  21-percent, and the SPD slipping to national numbers of 9-percent. The Greens and AfD together....will amount to near 50-percent of the national polling mid-2027.

The top two problems seen by the public?  Economic woes, and the fact that 50-percent of those on German welfare are non-Germans. 

AfD will figure the connection of the two issues, and this will be the top theme for the remainder of 2027.

Soder ends up being respected, but unable to resolve the budget/economic problems.....with the partnership of the SPD being  unable to fix much of anything.

At some point in 2028....early election occurs....with the public frustrated with both the CDU-CSU and the SPD.  AfD?  They are able to 'win' with around 35-percent of the vote, but no  party will partner-up for the coalition.  So you end up with a vastly weakened CDU-CSU, SPD, Greens....mostly leaning left.

Public frustration?  Doomed...the coalition likely lasts two years max.

At some point....after 2030....AfD will be near 50-percent on the win, and the freak-out of journalists, and the left-audience will occur.  The burden on the  welfare system....cleared within one year.  What folks will eventually say....if you work and pay taxes....you aren't a burden on the system, and that the CDU-CSU and SPD always had this 'tool'....never using it. 

20 May 2026: Germany: 7 Things

 1.Timmy-the-whale-update.  Well...Timmy, of course...is dead....floating near the Danish coast.  Denmark says they will recover Timmy, and perform a autoposy.

2.  WELT piece, presently....the German gov't is the only one in a hiring-plus-up....industry and commerce...slacking.

3.  Just a odd PR-gimmick....Chancellor Merz (CDU Party) is on a 'outing' with the SPD Party....trying to drum up public standing for them.

At some point yesterday.....he says: "I don't just stand on the left, I also come from the left."

Fair number of CDU-voters commented on social media.....perhaps there's a reason why they aren't buying in Merz's job performance.

4.  INSA, the polling folks....came up with a poll on the German Chancellor's preference.  One in three Germans wants Alice Weidel (AfD) as chancellor. Only 22-percent want Merz. But the winner?  36-percent of Germans who don't see anyone with the 'talents' for  Chancellor.

To be honest....ever since Covid....there's been a lack of confidence in Chancellors.

5.  New buy-a-E-car program.....you could get up to 6k Euro on a purchase of a E-car.

Based on numbers....fair comment to say that E-car buying has slacked-off/peaked.   Maybe this bonus will help.

6. Heat wave by Monday?  Well...there's weather chatter suggesting 30C (86 F) for my valley.

7. Bavaria state: statistical data got out....from Burgergeld (welfare pay)....55-percent of folks getting it....are non-German.  

It'll be discussed and heavy criticism will come over this.

German Patriot Missiles Going To Turkey?

Well....yeah. Announced yesterday.  The German Defense Ministry announced that the Bundeswehr will send one Patriot missile battery and 150 German soldiers.

Deployment is scheduled to begin at the end of June 2026 and last 90 days.  

The German unit will replace a U.S. Patriot unit currently stationed in Turkey and will operate under NATO’s Integrated Air and Missile Defense situation.

New INSA National Political Poll

AfD: 29-percent (up 1)

CDU-CSU: 22-percent (down 1)

Greens: 14-percent (up 1.5)

SPD: 12.5 percent (down .5)

LINKE: 10.5 percent

BSW: 3.5 percent

FDP: 3.5 percent

Observation: If you were on the left of the spectrum....voting SPD....you likely are eyeballing the Greens as a alternative.   If you add up the lefty-group....it's near 40-percent of the public currently....but heavily divided.

Thinking And Pondering

 

For a week or two...I've been pondering this data graphic (2025 info).

On the positive side?  Germany as a nation....is overflowing with tax revenue....while the median household net wealth is 'crap'.

Some would view it, and say....well....the gov't is taking wealth to redistribute and equalize things. The problem with that....roughly 20-percent of the German public...even with redistribution....are in a poverty situation.  If this were the priority/mission....they are doing a crappy job.

Solution?  To be honest, if you asked on a priority to resolve this....there's probably fifty things ahead of improving net wealth.  All of the parties probably agree on that part of the landscape.

Even if they had more net wealth....would they do a good job on investing, improving their retirement, or live happier?  

19 May 2026: Germany: 7 Things

 1. MDR (regional public TV network....to eastern region of Germany)...announced yesterday....for next 3 years, no Tatort episode productions from their region. Cash-flow problem.  TV crew/team heavily critical of decision.

Basically....the 'governors' limited increase on TV tax to public TV, and the reaction are staged 'cuts'. What will fill the hours?  No one says much....probably reruns, game-shows, and older movies.

I  sat four nights ago...watching a 1963 cowboy movie at prime-time while watching a regional public channel.  'Nevada Smith'.....excellent movie, but odd to be in prime-time setting.

2. 2,995 gas stations (of 15,240 stations) have violated the twelve-noon gas pricing rule.  No word if gov't will 'punish' them.

3.  Weidel (AfD 'Boss') has moved in the popular politician listing to the top five of Germany (1st time ever).  Oddly, in the ranking....she's higher than Bavaria's Soder.

4. US doctor who had been in Africa.....has ebola....now kept in Germany.

5.   My impression of AfD's Björn Höcke?  

Intelligent guy....educated...I'd rank at least two AfD folks ahead of him on party status.  

Negative?  If he gives speeches....there's always this 'hint' of nationalism...leading back to speeches of the 1930s.  Maybe accidental....maybe intentional.

Currently....he's a state-player....not on the national path.

6.  'Jump' and 'Orange' were driving schools in the Berlin region.  One day (in the past month)....they (the management)....up and disappeared....with all the deposits.

Path leads to Bulgaria....fake schools.  Authorities investigating.

7.  Become apparent after the police had to shoot that escaped tiger in Leipzig....there is NOT a national code of rules on exotic animals.  What rules do exist....differs state by state.  

Going to be a discussion....to have a national regulation about keeping dangerous pets.

18 May 2026: Germany: 7Things

 1.  If you watched ARD (public TV) last night....9:45....the Carin Miosga forum show....it was a fairly long live chat with CSU's Soder (Premier-President of Bavaria).

Basically....he's selling himself as the potential replacement for Merz...if a step-down occurs.  On the interview?  I'd give him high marks.

2.  Tiger-Queen story?  Well....in Leipzig over the weekend, cops got called....tiger loose.

They arrive to find a real tiger....ending up shooting it. Apparently...this gal in Leipzig has a private collection (11 of them), and this one got loose.

Germany has a license program for exotic pets and strict requirements.  Based off reports....it doesn't appear that she has a current existing license.   

3.  Crisis has started up in the European Song Competition.....some Germans are tired of losing...to the point that they are asking why allow the state-culture fund funnel money into the deal.  Amount?  I looked it up...comes to around half-a-million Euro per year.

I doubt if it's a huge number (probably into the tens of thousands feeling this way).

4.  At current pace of things....by the end of 2026....AfD's numbers will  reach 30-percent on polls (my humble belief).  It makes things very difficult with the CDU-CSU folks, and how they build future partnerships/coalitions.

5.  Austria: 67-year-old woman hiker....attacked by cows while crossing a meadow....dead.

6.  Interior Minister asking for 10 billion Euro for civil defense.

7.  Green Party talking up prioritizing child poverty in Germany. 

After A Week In The Hospital

 Ten random thoughts:

1.  I had first-class care.....finding almost no criticisms.

2.  Food-wise....it did get 'boring' after the 5th day.

3.  I probably watched twelve hours of CNN/BBC over the 6 days.  Yeah, there is still a element of propaganda existing.

4. It was pretty nifty to have a refrigerator in the room (pull-out drawer) and sip cold liquids.

5.  Nurse came by one morning while I was on the inverted hospital bed (my feet about a foot above my head), and got a pulse rate of 40 out of me.  He and the Doc got concerned.  I was ultra-relaxed that morning.  If I had a hiding place in the house for a hospital bed....yeah, I'd buy one.

6. The 'cantina' in the clinic offers beer.

7.  On my index of ultra-boring....1-to-10....it was a '12'.

8.  To step in.....finally getting to a bed....I had to encounter and pass through 12 offices/steps.  Luckily, it was not an emergency.

9. Free coffee.....all day long.  

10.   Free bananas and free pears....all day long. I probably haven't eaten a pear since the 1980s.

Higher Tax Talk

This past week, I noted a conversation/interview....where German economist Marcel Fratzscher spoke up for higher taxation on wealth being generated in Germany.

Curiously....same interview....he felt pretty sure that German retirement will eventually be set to age 70.  And no....he rejected the idea of different retirement ages for various professions. 

I paused over this.

Higher taxation isn't selling well...between the CDU-CSU and SPD folks.

Also, if you quizzed Germans....it's probably 98-percent against age 70 retirement.

Exploding Price in Germany

https://x.com/i/status/2054396218412085355

Hospital Stay

Well...shocked I am.  Staying at HSK.  Premium room, 48 in tv, decent menu, free bottle of water, and refrigerator in the room.  IV hook up 3x a day with Aciclovir for shingles.  No real pain, yet.

Room cost?  105 Euro per day...figures Tricare covers around 90 percent.   In the US, this would have been $500 a day.

Zero criticism except nurses wanting to check on you hour by hour.

Quiet Until The Weekend

 Will be lounging as of tomorrow AM.....in a Wiesbaden clinic....doc say shingles.  Says I have to stay for 3 nights....so no chatter for a couple of days.

Two German Holidays At Risk?

Well....the Chancellor (Merz) is to have a meeting with the SPD rep (Klingbeil). To show increased 'production'.....there is this suggestion to dump two holidays  (1 May, and either Christi Himmelfahrt (Ascension Day) or Pfingstmontag (Whit Monday / Pentecost Monday).

Public appeal? Zero.

The idea that the SPD would agree to dump May-Day?  Zero.

To show some mathematical plus-up? More or less....16 extra man-hours a year....for each working adult.  

10 May 2026: Germany: 6 Things

 1.  The Hantavirus ship is now parked at Tenerife (the Spanish isle).  Supposed to be a medical team (in hazmat suits) checking each guest out.

2. Putin said something to the effect that the 'special operation' is about to end. Maybe BS...maybe some conclusion.

3. Tuesday, here in Germany....CDU-CSU and SPD bigwigs to meet and  talk over 'path' ahead.  Reportedly, Merz has said...on a number of issues, there has to be a firm 'conclusion'.  If this is not met....the rumor goes that Merz would collapse the coalition.  

Maybe BS....but I suspect that the SPD is fearful of a crappy result if a fresh new election would occur (like 12-percent or less).

4.  Trump hinted....whatever troops leave Germany....odds are....they move to Poland. NATO continues on.  

5.   Putin say.....he wants former Chancellor Schroeder....to head  up talk with the EU....to get Russia relations on 'track'.  Trade?  That's the top priority....I would suspect. 

6. Rumor started up....Linke, SPD and Greens...would exit Twitter and their 'hype' would only be seen on Bluesky.

I looked for numbers....only 2-million Germans have accounts currently on Bluesky.  The hope here....if they left Twitter/X....others would leave.  The worst scenario....1-to-2 million add  Blueesky, but stay on Twitter as well...getting both sides of the spectrum.

My Village Fest

 My village, on the outer ring of Wiesbaden, started their weekend fest yesterday.  The wife and I spent four hours there.  Two observations:

1.  It's EXPENSIVE.  Food/beverage-wise....just the two of us...we spent near 70 Euro ($80). If you had kids.....it's five Euro for each ride.  Beer was reasonable....near 5 Euro per half-liter.  Corndogs?  Well....they had them for 5 Euro each (I skipped that).

2.  Security-wise....street-blockers and  private security around. You felt safe, but it obviously came with a cost-factor.

If you had two kids....each would have demanded 100-plus Euro for the weekend.

9 May 2026: Germany: Four Things

 1. I don't normally follow the royals of the UK....but this odd German news  item popped up.....Fergie (former wife of Prince Andy)....apparently had a 'hot-affair' going on for several years with P. Diddy.  

On news value....it's marginal.  But you just wonder how they met up, and if Epstein was involved.

2.  On the Hanta virus updates?  One key thing I  note.....German doctors are pretty 'firm'....no one they have under their care....is bad-off.  A good example....if you have four-star medical care going on....you likely will survive.

3.  Focus travel article: flight cancellations across Germany....now generally expected this summer.  Fuel issues driving this.

4.  Three-day cease-fire in effect for Ukraine-Russia conflict.

Serious economic problems probably dragging Russia into this.

This Germany Economic 'Bubble' Spiral

Economists argue over this....some say the spiral started with Covid....some say it started  in 2022 as Covid became a non-issue....some will say between 2017 and 2020,  you could see industry in decline.

If you see a discussion going on....they usually say bad policy without consequences at the ballot box carried the nation to the current point.

Lately.....the news media (public TV) says the decline started with the Iran 'war'...missing everything from 2022, or 2023 or 2024.

The funny thing?  The reason why so many Germans voted for the CDU/Merz in the last election....was that he understood commerce/business/economics.  The general feeling was that he would serve as some 'Moses' character....bringing things back into focus..

So....at this point?  Merz had to build  a coalition around the SPD...who need higher taxes to cover the promised programs. SPD numbers?  If you look at current polls....they marginally can get 12-percent of the national vote.  

Yeah, there is a drama unfolding....with most Germans disgruntled about the trend.

8 May 2026: Germany: 4 Things

 1.  Leipzig car-attack episode from Monday.  Update: authorities now say....for a while (long before the event)...the German attacker 'heard voice' (paranoid schizophrenia situation). 

I'll go and predict...judge evaluates the guy and he's set into a mental facility....no charges.

2. Interest in German money-market accounts up....some banks over 3-percent now for savings.

3. Public forum show from Thursday night....ZDF....political chatter, and the idea of replacing Merz as Chancellor came up.  The person talked about?   Bavaria Premier-President Soder (CSU).

No one has polled CDU-members (only card-carriers could  vote on such a matter), and the SPD would still likely be a coalition-partner (they'd have to agree to this matter, with some changes likely to occur). 

4.  Commerzbank is cutting 4,000 more jobs shortly.  

7 May 2026: Germany: 9 Things

 1.  New German military questionnaire is mandated for a response.  So, the Bundeswehr said yesterday....roughly 25-percent of young men are NOT responding.

From the group  that did respond....around half of them said they were agreeable to a boot-camp situation, and six months of 'duty'.  Bundeswehr added...just because they said they were agreeable....doesn't mean they'd sign up.

Those who did not respond?  Well...the Army says they will be threatened with a fine.  

2.  It's been around 2 years since Germany legalized weed/cannabis.   Some folks are beginning to comment....nothing much has changed...meaning that illegal weed sales is still being conducted.  

3.  Read a Focus business article....for you to retire in Germany and be 'middle-class'....pension level has to be 1850 Euro a month.

4.  Odd Lufthansa story from yesterday....they are reviewing options for long-haul flights...if jet-fuel shortages exist.

One idea  being floated....having  a stop-over (probably in the stan-republics or Russia)....to fuel up for Asia trips.  

You'd be adding two to three hours to the trip.  

5.  Economics Minister....Katherina Reiche....wants to overturn the ban on oil and gas heating starting in 2045. 

Drafted up currently.  Chancellor Merz says this idea is “open.” 

SPD support?  I'd give it a 10-percent chance at best.....climate target is their focus.

The agenda is to force everyone down a heat-pump 'path'.

6.  New poll for Sachsen-Anhalt state election (in four months):

AfD at 41-percent.  CDU at 26-percent.  

Greens at 4-percent (not enough for seats).  SPD at 7-percent.  Linke at 12-percent.

Meaning?  AfD, if they stay at 41-percent...can't build a coaltion....the CDU could in theory partner with SPD and Linke to have a 50-plus-percent coalition.

HOWEVER, in the next four months...if AfD reaches 45-percent...it'll be fairly close to a NO-coalition situation.....one party gov't at that point.

7.   Lot more chatter on this Hantavirus.  It apparently has a 2-to-21 day incubation period. Presents initially as flu.

8. I watched about 15 minutes of public forum show....Maischberger....last night...via Channel 1.

Climate change talk....guest wanted to turn German citizens into CO₂ traders....where you had good numbers/bad numbers....and you would figure into certificate trading.

Pretty sure that 90-percent of society would not buy into this idea.

9. Carsten Linnemann, General Secretary of the CDU Party, gave a talk yesterday....suggesting that 50,000 card-carrying CDU members....might exit from the party.

Hondius Story

 For about 36 hours, I've been following this hantavirus story.

Basic facts....it's a small passenger vessel that is Dutch-flagged...named 'Hondius'.  They've had a outbreak on it of hantavius (likely got it from Argentina when it last docked).  

149 guests were onboard....three dead from the virus so far.

What the medical folks say....the virus is mostly spread by rodents/mice...not by human-contact.  Well....there's some discussion that 'maybe' it evolved and goes person-to-person.

Dynamics?  Death-rate is figured between 1-percent and 15-percent....but your  fragile health situation might increase your odds.  Based on reporting....the three dead were older folks.

So the folks surviving....would like to get off, and they are nearing the Canary Islands....so there is this request to dock. The Premier-President of the Canary Islands, Fernando Clavijo, says 'no-way'...opposing the plan of the Spanish central government and the World Health Organization (WHO). 

Forcing the PM (Sanchez) into a corner?  I expect some medical authorities to fly in and take charge...letting the vessel to dock, but holding passengers for a few days until they sort out the mess.

Quarantining passengers?  Yeah....there's that option.

If they find it has progressed to human-to-human contact?  Docking is going to be a tough discussion.

Ghost Story

 I will occasionally pick up some Brit news pieces.  This AM....I got to one oddball story.  The Daily Star says...something to the effect...they found a paranormal 'expert' who claims the UK is running out of ghosts.  Reason?  Well...they say ghosts are dying off.

The problem with some story like this....a hundred Brits will read it....with forty folks getting chatty at the local pub tonight...about ghosts dying off.  

Bartender will get into this...asking HOW the ghost die off....with this conversation going on for three hours.

Someone will eventually suggest we need fresh new ghosts...out of thin air.

Then someone will suggest....can't we get AI to interface, and provide fake-ghosts?

The reality?  They've run out of Prince Harry or King Charles bogus stories to discuss.

Two Odd Stories

 1.  Is Israel about to provide jet-fuel to Germany?

Yes.....5 May agreement.  Israeli Energy and Infrastructure Minister Eli Cohen and Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar announced that Israel will transfer surplus jet fuel to Germany (Berlin’s request). 

Necessity?  Well....this follows the ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz (blocked by Iran since late February.

Israel confirmed it has enough surplus from its refineries to begin shipments.  What's left out of the story...is the amount.

Shocker?  This move was coordinated quickly and publicly.

Natural gas talked about? Yes....they've got plenty to export.  

2.  At some point (July-August)....the Pentagon's UFO files are directed to be released.  Lot of speculation building up.

I'll  go ahead and predict that zero German belief...if the files suggest crashes, recoveries, or alien visitations.  

You could bring the alien on ARD, do a 6-hour interview with the guy, and roughly 99-percent of German society would suggest 'deep-fake' BS.

6 May 2026: Germany: 8Things

 1.  Timmy-the-whale-update:  Argument brewing....some pro-Timmy folks now believe that data-tracking/status stuff....is bluffing, and that Timmy is dead.

Proof?  Not much to really ponder upon.  If you ask me....leaving Timmy in that German coastal  area....you would have seen Timmy dead sooner or later.

2.  Biontech, the Mainz company that made the Covid vaccine.....is in serious financial woes. 

3. Poll done....ONLY 11-percent of Germans are satisfied over the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition.  Done by RTL/N-TV.

Another recent poll centered on around 60-percent of Germans wanting new election.

My advice....just stick with the present crew....unless you really wanted maximum turmoil/craziness.

4. About that Leipzig car-attack....if you read through twenty-odd news groups....you come to three odd factors.

First, that car-ramming attacker....apparently did admit himself to a psychiatric ward....on his own. In this process....I'll note that he was married and had a kid.

Second, somewhere along a couple of days in the clinic...the management/psychiatrists apparently decided that this guy was too violent/aggressive to be in their facility....so they put him out on the street.

Third, he was dismissed Sunday....Monday comes.....where he rammed the car through a crowd in Leipzig’s city center at 80 km/h.

Out of the 410-odd psychiatric clinics that exist in Germany....you can't really find data to suggest what number handle violent folks...I'm guessing  less than 5-percent.

5.  Explaining Romania?  Summer of 2025...election came up and a pro-EU party 'won'....but they had to form a 4-party coalition to gain power (getting 50-plus percent of seats).  I'll just say it.....this was a weak/marginalized coalition.  Ten months later....because of economic woes...one of the parties walk out....ending the coalition, and forcing a new election. Just being pro-EU was not enough.

6.  Poll done by INSA....suggesting how Germans feel about the next coalition.  So around  26-percent of Germans want a CDU-CSU-AfD coalition.  23-percent want a CDU-CSU-SPD coalition (what exists today).  24-percent want a Green-SPD-Linke coalition (all left).  Then you have the 4th option....27-percent who really give a damn.     

Yeah...the 4th group is ahead of the other three.

7.  Another poll done....says 55-percent of  Germans expect a premature end to the current CDU-CSU-SPD coalition.....meaning more than half the voters feel this way.

8. Vileck mayor talking over exit of the 5,000 US troops from local area....millions in income....to dissolve.

What Percentage Of Germans Worry About Artificial Intelligence ('KI' in German)?

A insurance company asked this in mid-2025, publishing the results in their annual  R+V “Ängste der Deutschen 2025” survey....concluding it was near 32-percent...who 'feared' KI.

For a number of months, it's been on my mind....one out of three....with fear.

Why?

Well....I think a fair number got this 'panic' via public TV and mass media.  If you went to details....most probably have the fear that their jobs are in jeopardy....because of KI.

I asked my German wife over this...her company has been talking KI for five years now....swearing up and down that it was 'coming'.  So far....the performance level in tests? They've been crap. It is getting smarter....but the wife says at the pace of things, it might be twenty years before the humans are dismissed.

The day when I really start to worry? It's probably when ARD or ZDF (the public TV networks)....dismiss the live performance newscast each night....letting KI take over and give the nightly news.

What Is The App W Social?

 W Social (also called W or wsocial.eu) is a new European social media platform.  It's supposed to be a 'clean'/'pure' alternative to platforms like X (Twitter). 

Initially talked about...January 2026...at the World Economic Forum in Davos and is supposed to start a launch in the next couple of days here in Europe.

Design?  Well...it's supposed to be VERIFIED humans only....NO bots.  Every single user must verify their identity with government ID.  Biometric data? To be processed via server-side and deleted immediately afterward....leaving only a code, passport country and year of birth.

Who will use it?  My belief is a fair number of politicians, journalists,  and intellectuals.

Trying to compare to numbers at F-Book or X?  No....even at the one-year point....I'll predict they have maybe 10-percent of the numbers.

Selling to the public?  Over  and over....the term 'verified' will be uttered.  Eventually, the EU will demand that F-Book and the rest....must also be verified.

Just four Political Observations Over Germany

 1.  I think that Merkel (without really planning it)....brought the CDU Party to a totally neutral point....where they are mostly a 'partner' of the SPD Party. The conservative 'label' is long gone.

Not a plus or minus....just something you have to contend with, at this point.

2. If you were to discount Chancellor Merz, and seek out some new 'filler'....with the broad requirement being financial/economic 'mechanic'....there's no one really existing in that category.

3.Personal opinion....a majority of Germans are eyeballing rich Germans....saying they got too much wealth, and we got to take more of that away.

After they accomplish this....if the economy still seems crappy, what's the next invention to resolve problems?

4. Within ten years....German healthcare will be so expensive....that the gov't arranges some procedures in India, Vietnam and Thailand....flying Germans there...for inexpensive care.

5 May 2026: Germany: 6 Things

 1. Leipzig, car drove through a shopping district....killing 2, wounding 3.

Guy is local boxer-trainer....known to police (meaning they've had encounters with him before)....German....had been recently released from a psychiatric hospital.

2.  Focus business article: "Managers and entrepreneurs have never been as disappointed with the political leadership in Berlin as they are after just one year of the Merz government. The bitter consequences of this inability to reform are already becoming apparent."

End of 2024....commerce core of Germany were desiring a true recovery out of the Covid-era....have yet to really see it.

3. New Mercosur agreement.....between EU and South American countries in effect.  Big shipment of Brazilian chicken ordered/delivered to Greece. Test done....EIGHTY-percent of first shipment....contaminated with Salmonella, 

4.  The wealth tax (Vermögenssteuer) is now being discussed in Germany.  Proposal to reintroduce an annual tax on high net personal wealth (assets minus liabilities, like real estate, stocks, cash, etc., but not on income).

I should say this...up until 1997....such a tax existed in old West Germany and unified Germany....Constitutional Court examined it, and said it was unfairly written.

Negatives?  Well...capital flight will obviously occur.  I will note that some folks are commenting that this idea  violates the coalition agreement that rules out tax increases (CDU would have to agree strongly with this).  Critics also point to past experiences and studies showing wealth taxes can be hard to administer and may reduce investment.

Likely passing?  I'd give it a 50-50 chance.  On the positive side....current stagnation would continue, and more German companies would be bought-out/owned by Chinese operations.  This would speed up declining public support of both CDU and SPD parties....leading to gains for  Greens/Linke and AfD.

5. BYD (China car company) in talks to buy a VW factory in Dresden.

6. Study done....on Germans having  'cash' to invest in retirement funds....roughly two out of three....lack such cash-flow.

5,000 Troop Removal Announcement

 The US is withdrawing 5,000 US troops from the US base in Vilseck, Bavaria (Upper Palatinate). 

This is reported around noon...via BILD.

The troops being withdrawn are from the Stryker Brigade. The brigade is stationed at Rose Barracks on the Grafenwöhr training area. 

What is not said....if the troops go back to the US, or are to be based in another European country.

It Just Got Tougher To Get Swedish Citizenship Status

 Sweden passed a couple of changes....to obtain citizenship:

1.  You need eight years of residence....without  'troubles' (meaning arrests)

2.  Show a income

3.  Cleared a point of not getting any social benefits

4.  Passed the Swedish language exam

5.  Finally....accomplished the exam on Swedish values and society

I looked at the list....these are not difficult issues.  On the income requirement?  Well...even if you were a bakery assistant/clerk, or a bus-driver....you'd show some  type of income and not be a poverty-status welfare guy.

How Might A Base Closure Collapse A Economic Bubble

 Back in the 1990s...I was stationed at Ramstein, and got into a conversation with a American retired GI....who had this interesting economic story.

In the region of Ramstein....some German developer had acquired a farm area that was 15 minutes driving from the east-gate and west-gate.  He had this idea of property development.....building houses which were attractive to Americans, and 'pricey' (meaning that he knew the max-housing pay-out for senior NCOs, and  most officers....which was about 2 times what a German would pay.

The development would end up as fifty homes....all upscale....this plotted around 1980-1982 timeframe. 

Local wealthy well-to-do Germans bought the homes, and were to be used as rentals...paying the German back more quickly, and thus getting the bank mortgage done ten years prior to 'normal'.  In your retirement years....this was a big-deal for added pension status.

The key failure?  Well....the developer had two 'books'....for the construction guys/tax authorities.  He brought in  non-Germans and non-EU folks....cash-basis, and avoided a lot of tax reporting.  He got into divorce trouble, and the wife reported.....which got him several years in prison.  

Yeah, the houses still sold, and throughout the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, 2020s....it's paid well.

If the base were to close....the money-maker would collapse.

Around Ramstein today? I'd  guess that twenty-odd developments and apartment buildings like this exist.  The number of businesses, cafes, restaurant that have 50-percent American GI?  A humble guess at more than a hundred....maybe going toward 150.  

Yeah, they've worked hard to build  up a economic bubble.

If it were to close?  In the first year alone....there's likely to be 2,000 insolvencies to be declared....with a minimum of 1,000 apartments/homes to be laying there vacant....some for five to ten years.

Political Chatter Over Saxony-Anhalt's Election (Early Sep 2026)

 6 Sep 2026 is the state election day for S-A.

Oddly....NO polling has been done by anyone since mid-March 2026.

How things looked from that poll?  AfD was leading  with 38-percent, and the CDU was sitting at 25-percent. Three other parties were over the 5-percent point, and marginally showing numbers.

I suspect things have changed a bit, and AfD presently sits near 42-percent....with the CDU  in a weakened position (probably barely at 22-percent).

Yeah, it's possible that the SPD falls below the 5-percent point, and that you end up with the BSW folks, the Greens, and Linke...accounting for 20-odd percent.

The non-seat-holding votes adding up to 15-plus percent?  That's the real 'fear'....that you'd have a fair number of votes....without representation and weakening any chance for the CDU to build a coalition

My General Prediction On The Trump Base Closures

 After pondering this for a while....I will offer three predictions:

1.  This first wave out of Germany (the 5,000)....I suspect will be Spang's 52nd Wing, the 10th AAMDC (Missile guys), and at least one additional Army unit....which I think they will all go to one Poland military base (consolidated).

2.   The Spain-Italy exit?  Just a crazy thought....I think this deal-making going on in Morocco....will lead to a US base....with most all of  the US assets in Spain and Italy going to one Moroccan military base (on the Atlantic).

3.  Finally, I suspect that Romania will end with some US assets (out of Germany).  

Pure speculation....but truthfully, Trump can say NATO survives on, but in other locations.