3 Oct 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

 1.  This France youth-riot BS?

Across most of Europe (not just France)....you find a mix of nice-kept schools, and crappy schools which needed renovation already twenty years ago.  So the kids and teachers are disgruntled enough....to trigger riots and burn some structures down.  Unhelpful?  Lot of French voters are looking toward a right-wing 'solution'.

2.  Odds of Spain calling for national election?  I'd put the figure at a 70-percent chance.

3.  Unification Day in Germany....national holiday.  As you might notice....other than politicians....almost no one celebrates the day or makes a big deal over it.

4. Interesting article in WELT this AM....in a massive chaotic event....in terms of civil defense, your survival rate depends on the town itself and Germans are on a uneven national platform....where city to city....things are different.

5. Galeria chain (like a Macey's brand) in serious financial woes.  

6.  If you asked me to rate a early German federal election.....at the point where the CDU-CSU has fallen to 17-percent in polling, and the Greens pick up some SPD-voters...reaching 18-percent....it's likely time to have a national election.

Yeah, AfD would have near 30-percent in voters but be unable to form a coalition.  You'd have the Greens as a coalition-builder.....with the SPD and CDU folks as junior partners.  Disgruntled CDU voters would likely move to AfD voting patterns after this. 

The Diesel Problem We Should Not Discuss

 I was reading through a summary this AM....between 2009 and 2024 (15 years)....throughout Europe....around 30 different refineries shut-down.  Various reasons given....some probably could have upgraded but country laws made it unwise or of zero profit sense.

So....in the last year or two....you add up the Iran-US 'war'....then the Ukraine-Russia war.....and the China sudden policy not to export diesel fuel...yes, there is a crisis about to go from a '1' to a '7' (my index), and trucking deliveries probably will be a EU problem over the next ninety days.

The US or Venezuela coming to the rescue?  Well....President Trump has said to France/Germany....open the diesel reserves that they have.

Iran itself in a marginal production phase?  That's the side-story....where trucks, buses and farm equipment will be sitting there...unable to move because of limited fuel issues.

Dental 'Options'

 I had a pre-brief for dental work for next week.  

My dentist added two 'services'.

First, he has one morning per week....where a botox-expert comes in and gives you 'lip' service.  

Second, he has gotten the services of a acupuncture expert, and one afternoon per week......you can come in and get 'pins-and-needles'.

I paused over this.  This is stuff that my dental-insurance WON'T cover.  If you asked me....90-percent of Germans would flat out say 'NO' to both services (my humble thoughts).  Finally, if you asked me over who might go for the services....mostly German trophy-wives.  

2 Oct 2026: Germany:8 Stories

 1.  These France school fires?  No national list....but the news reports regionally....at least ten schools were lit, and are in 'degraded' condition.

The one odd factor....it gets national attention, and hypes the brand of National Rally Party.  

2.  Soccer: Germany defeated Serbia last night....big deal for Coach Klopp.  ZDF carried game....spent a lot of time after the game talking to players (hyping the change in attitude).

3.  Berlin-City crew wanted the Görlitzer Park area closed at night (major drug sales point in the city).  Judges got involved....says 'NO'....you can't close down the park.  The stumbling point?  Judges say the City Senate has no authority over use of 'closure-rule'.  

Oddly, there's a counter-group with a fence-free agenda.....wanting the park 'as is'....even if taken over by dopers.

4.  Watched a WELT piece....suggesting escalation of Russian sabotage on European sites.

5.  New poll.....only 10-percent of Germans happy with Chancellor's performance.

6.  Some belief that gas prices (reduced since yesterday) will jump 20-percent up over the next month....over Iran woes.

7.  Three guys arrested in NRW (1x German, 2x Syrians)....for terror-planning....yesterday.

8.  Noticed the term 'doom trolling' yesterday....has to do with AI woes and potential threat.  Lot of Germans getting hyped-up over threat of AI. 

Observations

 1.  January 2027....the Deutschland-Card....giving you free access to bus, tram and 2nd-class travel throughout Germany (each month)....goes up to 66.80 Euro.  As long as you don't need high speed ICE travel...it's a bargain deal.

2.  Over the hill from me....old grocery is shutting down, and renovation taking place.  Once complete.....it will be a 24-hour operation....365 days a year.  Yes, even at 1 AM....you go over....swipe your card, and it gives you access to a mini-mart (figure a 50 ft by 30 ft store-front, essentials).  Radical change for Germans.  Store will only be manned 6 days a week....from 7AM to 7 PM....rest of the day....automated system and cameras in place to monitor things. 

3.  Focus journalist went out and interviewed 300 Germans who 'want' to exit Germany. At the end of these conversations....he found that most listed conditions (perfect country)....and they can't really find such a place.

My wife (German) has the same mentality.  

4.  Chancellor gave a talk this AM....says 'no' to sugar-tax idea of SPD.  Temp-hold going on.

5.  Talk this AM over BER (Berlin's new airport).  When it first got suggested (20 years ago)...it was said that around 340 million Euro was the cost.

Presently....open and operational....with some improvements still on the books....the cost is at 2.5-billiion Euro to finish.

6.  After a pretty dry September (one ten-day period of shows off/on for 2nd-half of August)....weather folks are finally talking about ten to fifteen days of rain in October. Extremely dry year for 2026.

7.  Small town here in my state of Hessen....police are doing a investigation.  Some kid on a E-scooter....crashed while the police were trying to pull him over.  Cops say it was getting up to 80 kilometers per hour.  

1 Oct 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

 1.  Discounted fuel started today.....I paid 2.03 per liter (E-10) this morning.

2.  Focus business article: You as a single German, because of 2026 inflation....need to find 700 'new' Euro to cover your expenses for the year.

3.  Lot of chaos brewing in France....national finance issues shaking up the voting public.

4.  Fairford incident?  National UK leadership saying there was a terror-act of some sort, with Iran involved.  Police?  Criminal act with fuel (diesel) being the target.  Fairly confusing.

5.  Pretty sure now.....one out of four jobs with VW....will go away.

6.  Massive police raid from yesterday (2,200 German police involved)....going against corruption in the cleaning industry of Germany.

What The German Draft Sugar Tax Appears Like?

 The chatter goes this way.

If you are drinking a sugar-free soda....it's zero tax.

The tax will appear to be 38 Euro cents per liter....for heavily sugared drinks....with low-sugar drinks getting taxed at 26 Euro cents.

The 'end' of the sugar talk?  Well....some Germans think this will be revisited every four to six years....when the tax bucket needs more income.  

Same to come for fatty or greasy food, or excessive salted stuff?  Yeah, the same crowd thinks within a year this talk will start up.

Changing anyone's habits?  My personal thoughts....when a Pepsi gets up to 5 Euro a can....it'll reshape buying habits.  

Oddly, if you were happy with cheap beer....you'd get a better pricing scheme drinking beer over a soda.  Everyone should dump sodas and just go with a beer-habit.  

Spain's Housing Changes From Yesterday?

 Yesterday (Tuesday, 29 September 2026), the Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, worked up a deal with the coalition government.

National housing fury has been going on for several days.

The main measures include:

1.  Extending the ban on evicting vulnerable tenants who have no alternative housing until the end of 2030.

2.  Automatic two-year extension for existing rental contracts (would expire before 31 December 2028).

3.  A ban on so-called “vulture funds” buying residential properties for speculative purposes until 2028.

4.  Tighter rules on seasonal and room rentals to stop them being used to dodge ordinary tenancy protections.

5.  Higher VAT on tourist apartments and other steps aimed at curbing speculation.

6.  Automatic (indefinite) renewal of rental contracts.

7.  The government also announced related incentives such as interest-free state-backed loans (via the ICO) covering up to 20% of the price of a first home, capped at €50,000.

So the consequences?  Most people think that a halt on building new apartment buildings will occur (figure for 3 years).  

Some of this leading back to Germans living a vacation-lifestyle and 'gobbling-up' properties?  Spaniards say this.....some evidence that it's true.  

30 Sep 2026: Germany: 5 Stories

 1.  WELT piece....11-percent of German 'kids'....ages 18 to 24....are not in training, not employed, and 'just-standing-around'.  

Pretty negative story if true.

2.  Russia story brewing....gov't is moving funds out of social programs....to cover military costs.

3.  If you look at polling....there's only five points separating the CDU-CSU (2nd-place) and the Greens (3rd place).  At present pace, it's possible that the Greens take another point or two off the SPD/Linke folks, and the Greens in 2029 end up in the election forming a gov't....after the next election.

4.  Fairford episode.....just odd....about an hour prior to the farm-gal calling in to report suspicious stuff....someone else called in (police didn't react on that call).

5.  Former boss of RBB (public TV for Berlin network)....has charges accepted by the court (breach of trust).  So there will be a open court hearing. 

Berlin-City 'Twist'

 Elif Eralp, the new Linke Party leader in Berlin....is trying to form a coalition centering around a pledge to 'seize' ownership of 200,000 apartments to be city-property (instead of commercial property rentals)....meaning the city can control the rent price.

The process is called.....Enteignung / Enteignungsverfahren (expropriation under Art. 14 GG and the Building Code / BauGB).  In simple-talk....a city or public authority takes specific properties for a concrete public purpose (it could be a building, a school, a private street).  

The key here....there's compensation required.

If you said you were seizing/expropriating....six buildings (20 apartments in each) worth a cost of 100 million Euro....you can perform the act, but your lawyers are going to present the bill (validated by a court) for 100 million Euro.  Where this money comes from?  Well....your budget, or you borrow the money.

So when you talk about 200,000 apartments....you are probably discussing about 150-plus buildings, and you need to start calculating a necessity for five to ten billion Euro.  

Would the German federal gov't (Merz and company)...give them even a quarter of that amount?  NO.  

Does anyone within the Linke group fully understand expropriation?  I have my personal doubts.

Do Linke-voters understand expropriation?  I seriously doubt it.

My personal belief....they (the Linke-led city council) might rig up some property tax, and have the money to 'grab' two or three apartment buildings per year (figure each in 1-million Euro each)...with the buildings being in fix-it-up condition.  So they'd have to find another 5-million for renovation of the structures.

The key problem here?  Well....the SPD Party wants to be a partner in the coalition, but they probably won't sign up for expropriation efforts.

29 Sep 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

1.  How this Fairford terror event 'flipped'.

Well...the five lads are part of a crime-group out of London....who market and sell stolen farm-diesel fuel. The terror story....at least by police standards...has fallen apart.

Odds of charges?  I'd give it 30-percent chance of charges being developed.

So they had three full-size vans....with fuel 'bladders' in each.  Some Brit did analysis...saying if there were heavily-loaded.....3,500 liters per van....the 'take' per van would be 4,000 to 5,000 Pounds (figure 4,660 Euro to 5,820 Euro)....per vehicle.

Two guys, with their crime group involved, and a middle guy....probably took 1,500 Euro each as their 'profit'.  Maybe if you were doing this 6 to 8 times a month....it makes sense.  Lot of risk for overloaded van-driving, if you ask me (as a kid on soybean farm....driving an overloaded truck at 45 mph and marginal braking power)

Weight risk and accident potential?  I asked Grok/AI to check the weight and van-standards.  It's badly over-weight, and would be a mess to drive in a safe manner.

End of the story?  Well....defcon Charlie is probably still in effect, and the 'real' terrorists....are somewhere out there...waiting.

The five guys?  If the fuel bladders were empty....there's no charges much that the police can dump on them.  

2.  The German couple who invented the Covid vax....shutting down one of their 'plants'....business has dropped big time.

3.  Rottweill (SW Germany)....woman wounded by gunshot.  

4.  Greece says it will form a deportation 'center' in Africa....whether the EU allows for this....unknown.

5.  Odd Sunday evening TV offering....two German commercial networks offered NFL football.

6.  Looking over a Berlin City election map.....the far outer east ring of the city....is where AfD got votes.  The middle seven suburbs....are where Linke Party voting was dominant.   

Four Humble Thoughts

 1.  UK going back to EU....UN-BREXIT?

The question should be...if you ran a election...could the re-join vote get 50-plus percent?

Then you need to ask....would EU look at matters and say 'no'?

Finally....if the UK rejoined....would France go and halt the migration-raft deal into the UK?  If not....why waste time discussing this (again)?

2.  If the Greens found themselves at 20-percent (ahead of the SPD and CDU-CSU, behind AfD)....would former alt-Chancellor Habeck get a call to 'come-back'?

3.  SPD talking of a retirement account....that parents could start for kids....at age 6?

Well....the topic has come up and some folks think it's a great idea....believing that a IRA-like deal....over 60 years....would be worth half-a-million Euro.  

But to be honest....50-percent of parents ain't got the money to run such an account (even 40 Euro a month would be a issue).

4.  In roughly 3 weeks.....all Bahn stations will forbid consumption within train stations.  

This Brit Farmer Gal

 Shortly after midnight....this Brit farmer gal left a party....probably having consumed an ale or two.  She rounds a corner, and there lay three white vans.  There's probably a 8-second jolt....something ain't right, and then she notices five young lads who probably aren't of the local surroundings

The farmer gal turns around....fumbles around with the smart-phone....tries to alert the base security folks (that fails), and reverts to the local police.  Roughly 25 minutes later...a couple of Brit police arrive....with guns, and take the five lads.

The farmer gal?  She wasn't done.  She used WhatsApp and alerted everyone in the village area....'lockdown' and be prepared.

She probably didn't get home and chilled-out to sleep...until 3 AM.

By 6 AM....she probably got up and tended to farm chores....checking the cattle....doing a fence secure walk, and by 7 AM....had a jolt of serious caffein.

Around 10 AM....she probably had ten minutes of free time to check on the base story.  Then back to work

The blunt truth....there's probably twenty-thousand farm folks....prepared for action....around the clock, and what keeps terrorists out-of-action.

Saving Energy Chatter

One odd development in Germany over the past 20 years....if you frequent outdoor restaurants in the fall/spring.....some folks have invested money in gas patio heaters (called Heizpilze).  They generally run off natural gas or oil.  

From my prospective....if you sit within 2 meters (6 feet)....you get a 'jolt' of heat (say around 10 F added to the temp).   So siting and having dinner, or have a beer....isn't some cold affair.  

Well...the EU in the past month or two....has proposed a BAN on the patio heaters....saying it's a waste of energy.  I won't argue much about the waste idea....but if you were a pub, or restaurant....if the ban occurs, you can probably zero-out about 20-percent of your fall/spring profit margin.

The only suggested 'cut'?  Well....NO.  There's talk of a nighttime public street lamp 'cut'.  

This being a suggestive idea?  That's also part of the story.  They'd prefer not to force this upon every state....that states would adapt the two ideas. 

German acceptance?  I'd give it less than a 5-percent chance of either idea being 'forced'.

28 Sep 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

 1.  Observations over Fairford UK terror-attempt.  The base had already gone to threatcon Charlie six days prior....knowing 'something' was going to occur.  The five terror 'lads'?  I don't think they were 'bright' enough to grasp the increased security and that details were out in the open. 

What will make this rough for the UK?  If details come out that the five 'lads' had arrived by refugee-status in the past six months....people will start ask pretty serious questions.

Fake business notes on the three vans?  Someone went to a lot of trouble.  This was not a normal half-ass terror action....some thought process was in place. 

2.  ARD public forum show (Sunday night)....the Caren Miosga Show...oddly enough....gave time to former Green Party bigwig Habeck....for a talk.

3.  Some talk within the US (Trump-team)....if AfD gets banned....the guilty parties involved...would be banned from entering the US.  Might be BS....might be partially true.  It'll disturb some Germans.

4.  Some belief in Berlin (city) that the Linke Party (winner of the election) will trigger a change....getting rid of knife-free zones within the city.  Lot of cities now have this policy....allowing police for evening hours to approach and demand a ID check/frisk (you have to comply).  

5.  Odd weather for the approaching week....temp's up to 27 C (81 F).

6.  Increasing number of Poles believe some 'attack' by Russian on Polish soil is possible.  

27 Sep 2027: Germany: 6 stories

 1.  Some folks are making observations about the Berlin-City election....that the city is set to have lefty-management (led by the Linke Party)....for 5 years.  If you analyze the voting....the eastern side (old DDR led)....got the big chunk of votes for the Linke Party....while the old western part of the city (FRG led) delivered votes for CDU and AfD.  As much as folks say the city unified in the 1990s...it's obvious that it's still highly divided.

2.  New poll done:

- AfD: 29-percent

- CDU-CSU: 19-percent (down 1)

- Greens: 15-percent

- SPD: 14-percent

- Linke: 10-percent

- FDP: 4-percent

Majority of Germans vote 'righty' over 'lefty'.  If you took purely CDU and SPD....they attract only one-third of public voting.

3.  British public hyped-up....some belief of a Russian invasion.  This week....PM discussed a national database of citizens listed, and their talents/skills....so in the even of a war....gov't could call upon the public.

Based on commentary on social media....I'd say a minimum of 60-percent of folks are not buying into the need for this, and might refuse to participate. 

On the German belief of Putin-invasion chatter....I'd say around 5-percent believe in some military action being possible  

4.  Last night....wife and I completed the Babylon Berlin 5th season series.  I'll just say that season 1/2 were five-star and if you can view it....worth watching.  4th and 5th seasons....less interesting.  Series takes you from 1919 to 1933.

5.  Some brawl in Koln last night....ten folks fighting....one guy got shot in the leg.  Cops still investigating.

6.  Focus ran a report on propaganda in Russian schools having started up recently....telling kids they need to die for the country.

Protest From Friday

 I sat and watched a ZDF (German public TV, Channel 2) news piece last night and it's been on my mind.

Apparently....Friday morning....somewhere between 40,000 and 50,000 German school kids (mostly from highly urbanized regions of the country) took to the streets in a protest.  News folks say a hundred cities....I have my doubts on this part of the story.

Gimmick? Against the mid-2027 conscription/draft development.  

The way that the gov't objective is laid out?  There's a goal of x-number of folks coming forward and avoiding the yearly 'lotto' (you might win---thus avoid the draft....you might lose---getting drafted).  

As of late August (2026)....they are meeting the goal (marginally).  For 2027's goal....anyone's guess. Even if they fell 1,200 under the goal....the draft would only involve 1,200 guys.  

Watching the protest video....oddly, there are a fair number of non-school 'kids' in the protest.  I'd go and suggest 10-percent were NOT 'kids' (young adult men/women in their 20s/30s).

Organized?  Well....yeah, that thought came up several times in the news piece.  I'm not saying the Russians, or even the CIA....but it's obvious that some higher level of 'management' is involved.

Die WELT (newspaper) had a poll....asking ALL Germans about approval for the draft....it's up around 58-percent....meaning 40-percent aren't supporting it.  They also did a youth poll...61-percent OPPOSE the draft/conscription deal.

National chaos approaching?  You know....the Ukraine/Russia war has changed the prospective of a lot of Germans (including school 'kids').  If Putin were 'stupid' and triggered some kind of internal chaos....I have my doubts that the youth of Germany would support a war effort.

The one funny thing?  Recruitment right now....includes both young men and ladies.  Conscription/draft?  It only starts up with young men (no ladies).  

Yearly recruitment for ladies?  It stays around 13-percent....year by year.  

26 Sep 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

 1.  What the savings are for the 1 Oct gas-price change (due to tax cut temporarily)?  For a refueling (figure 30 liters)....about 10 Euro.  The change lasts for about 3 months.

2.  Bill Gates gave a talk this week, which got hyped-up by German newspapers/networks....saying around 1-billion people may die due to AI.

A lot of BS sprinkled around this topic.  If you crunched the numbers for Germany's 84-million population....probably 10-million Germans must die, for this theory/idea to work.  No explanation on how the folks will die.

On my doom-BS-meter (1-to-10)....this ranks about a '99' (way past turbo-BS).

3.  Saxony-Anhalt....pretty clear now....AfD and BSW will have a coalition.

4.  Ankle-monitors are a new trend in Germany....mostly where you have right-wing convicted folks.  So it came up this week....the police union of Germany wants the monitors prescribed for left-wing convicted folks as well.

5  Some demonstrations yesterday....by older school kids...against the conscription idea/draft.  

6.  Starting in November....new EU 'fee' is established...2 Euro.  If you order a product (like from Amazon) and the distributor is NON-EU....for the order, you pay 2 Euro.  Whether or not China accepts this rule, or starts a counter-rule against the EU....unknown.

My Pfalz (State) Speeding Ticket

 So the official ticket came today....registered mail.

Usually....over 20 years...the only speeding tickets I've gotten in Germany....were in the state of Hessen.

This ticket was a bit unusual.  

First letter came....asking my wife (registered owner of the car) if she was guilty party, and she had to log onto a web-site for the state to say 'yes' or 'no'.  She said 'no', and referred my name as the guilty party.

Then came letter number two...same question.  I had to log on and say 'yes'....that I was the guilty party.

Today, came letter number three....registered mail.

Yeah, I was on the autobahn doing 118 kph (18 over the limit).  The normal amount is 60 Euro (by federal law), but the Pfalz tacked on 26 extra Euro....processing fee and mail-costs.

I asked the wife (being German) why such fees exists in one state but not another.  She responded....just pay the ticket.

Odd Weather Pattern

 Weather lady gave a talk this week on regional TV.  For Wiesbaden....for entire year of 2026...we are at 350-to-400 mm so far....about 50-percent of what is 'normal' rainfall.

For about 3 weeks in August....rain finally started up (almost every other day with a shower).  Past three weeks of September?  Nothing.

Drought-chatter?  Still mostly true.  

EU Fuel Chatter

 EU is talking over the idea of E-20 fuel (doubling up on E-10 idea).

More requirements for sugar beets?  Yeah.

More energy 'count' needed for a car to drive x-number of kilometers?  Yes....that is one disadvantage.

Pricing?  By the time you figure increasing sugar beet prices and higher consumption....I doubt that there is a gain.

If your car was made prior to 2010?  You probably ought to talk to your mechanic (I'd give you 50-50 odds that you shouldn't use the E-20 fuel).

25 Sep 2026: Germany: 4 Stories

 1.  Off ZDF (public TV, Channel 2) last night...came a live public forum show (Maybrit Illner Show).

Linke Party boss....Heidi Reichinnek....was featured.  Lot of push-back by other guests against image of the party being anti-Israel.  If you ask me....she did a crappy job in defending the party.

2.  Head of the German natural gas agency/storage....says unless a miracle occurs on LNG delivery in the next month....there's likely to be some 'limits' put upon the public to make it through the winter.  Suggestion is that actions of some type will start in Decemer.

My bet....natural gas homes will be asked to keep the temp at 17 C (63 F)

3.  Berlin (the city) has withdrawn it's bid for the Olympics.

4.  WELT piece this AM....interview with a AfD voter....20 years old....migration background....gay.  A lot for the anti-AfD crowd to consume and grasp.

5.  Geli Raubal was the half-sister of Hitler....dead by suicide in 1931.  Some recent history chatter going on....belief that Hitler himself may have shot Raubal.  Chatter was also going onto the idea that she (the half-sister) was having relations with Hitler.

End Of A Era

 My German wife is a consumed shopper....who at the end of a 'trip'....must take the paper-receipt, and walking to the car....is analyzing the paper receipt for mistakes.  About every forty-odd trips to the grocery....she'll note that Huns-the-clerk double-swiped the can of soup or bag of chips.  This halts the path to the car....while she grabs me and the cart....dragging us back into the grocery to resolve the 'problem'.

This AM....I noted a German law being drafted. At some point in 2028....the receipt-crap will go digital.

What this means for a German?  You will have a choice as you pay and leave....with NO print-out....the grocery-store will allow you to e-mail the receipt to your personal account, or allow you to scan a QR-code to your cellphone.

NO more paper receipts.  

I haven't brought this up to the wife.....I'm pretty sure she'll get hyped-up.  

24 Sep 2026: Germany: 4 Stories

 1.  Coach Klopp (new national soccer coach for Germany) has three rules added....no wives on team trips, you need to get your haircut business done prior to practice (or afterwards), and no cellphones at practice.  

2.  Several key SPD Party figures are saying that they'd rather not join a Linke Party-led coalition in Berlin (city).  Talk centers on some radical lefty positions of the Linke Party.

3.  Police in Berlin did a raid....finding a stash of weapons and some Nazi symbol BS.  

4.  Drone alert at BER (Berlin's Airport)....shut down the airport for 45 minutes.

Oktoberfest New Drink

 Espresso Martini?

Sells for 16.50 Euro per glass.

Heavy espresso drink....served in a glass, with vodka and a bit of sugar added.  .2-liter.

Polling for Next Year's State Election in NRW (NW State of Germany)

Eight months away:

AfD leads with 24-percent....CDU at 22-percent.

Greens, 18-percent.  SPD, 14-percent.  Linke Party at 12-percent.

Bad sign for CDU?  Yeah.  

Have to also say....there is no campaigning underway.....roughly one out of four voters going with AfD message/brand. Also....odd factor....NRW has larger population of migrant/non-Germans....than most German states.

How Much Of Merz And The CDU's Problems are Economic In Nature?

I'm of the belief that if jobs were stable, taxes were cut, and Germany's economic issues were marginalized.....a lot of the discontent with Merz would dissolve.

Germany’s economy in the fall of 2026 is in a fragile, modest recovery after years of stagnation and recession. 

Since 2019?  It's a noticeable problem.  But you can go back to the early 1990s....when unification occurred, and point at various issues that started.

Forecasts for 2026 GDP growth range from about half-a-percent....to 1.3-percent....depending on the institute talking. 

Issues?  There's energy shock (over prices)....there's an aging and shrinking working-age population, increasing labor costs, bloated bureaucracy, weak private investment, and lost competitiveness in manufacturing versus China. 

Reform chatter?  Lot of it....but the Merz coalition have marginally delivered....with public support lessening each month.

Merz was voted in because he was mini-Trump-like in character....with expectations that he'd help to focus the country on changes necessary.  So far....it has not worked.  

23 Sep 2026: Germany: 5 Stories

 1.  Curious Sweden election problem.  Dalarna (center of the country....fairly rural.

So fraud investigation has opened up now three weeks after the election.  There was some guy from Somalia....who got Swedish citizenship 7 months ago....who was elected to parliament for the Left.  It's come out that 'some' folks (how many is never detailed)....were given cash in some way, and they had pre-filled ballots.  

The talk goes that a fresh new election might be required.  AI suggests in the range of 200,000 folks in the district would be 'called-upon' to vote again....if authorities agree.

2.  Maischberger public forum show from last night.  Odd situation....chatter over the Linke Party win in Berlin.  Guests from Greens and CDU....openly agreed....lot of the promises made by the Linke Party....are NOT achievable.  

Linke Party needs both the SPD and Greens to build a coalition.  

One odd promise.....less homework, and NO grades on classes up to the 10th grade.  Other promises....fewer police and more street-workers.

3.  ZDF (public TV, Channel 2) ran a 45 minute analysis of the Chancellor (Merz) and the CDU Party.  Fair assessment.

What they noted....the party is 'sick'....unable to really get voters engaged and peppy.  They aren't blaming just Merz....the whole top level is this way. 

Oddly, they ran this in prime-time (8:15 PM).

4.  Mercedes is having a public discussion.....production costs is now a problem.  Two plants in jeopardy of closing.

5.   Saxony-Anhalt coalition status?  BSW and AfD are working up an agreement.  Looks pretty sure now.

Why Germans Get 'Leave-Germany-Chatty' These Days?

 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s......you never heard Germans consumed to leave or exit Germany....if such-and-such political extreme won.  In the past ten years....between the Greens, the Linke and the AfD....I'd say around five to seven percent of Germans will get hyped-up and chatty....indicating they may 'HAVE' to leave Germany.  

My German wife occasionally gets this way....she works with people who talk like this.

Part of this....I blame on public TV with their forums, and 'voices-given-hard-left or hard-right activists'.

Some of this is left-over crap from the 1930s/1940s.....where people fear repeating the past.  Just watching Babylon Berlin....got my wife hyped-up.

A phobia-like stage?  I'm inclined to believe that.

Key problem?  It's mostly the next question....sure....go ahead and leave....where to?  That's typically where reality starts to fall into place, and the crowd can't identify anyplace that fits weather-wise, or economically.

Where this is leading onto?  I'm wondering by 2030....if we double the number of German-leave-folks.

Why Can't The CDU-CSU Build A Coalition With The AfD?

 Around seven years ago, I started to ponder this.  It's not a simple suggestion.

Presently?  If you count nationally.....between the CDU-CSU and AfD....they probably have around 60-percent of votes.  Of the sixteen states.....in some...they might have around 35-percent.  I'd say from about eight states....it's closer to 60-to-65 percent.  

The Merkel 'rule' not to hand-shake 'hands' with the 'far-right-extreme-right'?  Generally, she pressed hard that you as a CDU-CSU member....could never build partnerships with the AfD.  

Some of this 'design' was a Merkel effort to build the CDU after Kohl....into a center-center political organization....NOT a right-of-center organization. Some of this helped to persuade SPD-voters who were leaning slight toward the 'center'....to find voting trends/patterns with the CDU (rather than the SPD).

This way of thinking stuck around....from 2013 when migration started up and continuing up even to today.  

The personal pick of Merkel to replace her?  Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (AKK)....had this thought process and leaned the same way.  The Merkel-path for AKK?  It lasted about 18 months, then dissolved.  Fair number of CDU executive members....weren't that supportive of Merkel hand-picking AKK.

The 2nd 'pick'?  Armin Laschet, Premier-President of NRW.....goofed around and lost the 2021 election....bringing the Merkel ownership of the party to an end.

Olaf Scholz (the SPD Chancellor, up to 2025), and Merz?  They both kept the migration path in place from the Merkel era.

Yeah....they both talked about fixing the migration problem, or limiting entry, or adding more police powers/manpower. 

Why AfD's 'vision' can't find CDU support?  

I put this into four categories.

First, in individual states....there's probably 30 to 50 percent of CDU/CSU voters that would like to hear the coalition talks between the two.  The national leadership has to 'correct' this behavior on occasion.

Second, there's this perception of Nazi-crap.  Oddly, if you lined up the top ten players of the AfD....at least two of them use 1930s era quotes, and run campaigns that seem slightly hyped-up over past Nazi promises.  The bulk of CDU voters have a bitter 'taste' of this era and don't want to partner because of that.

Third, as much as AfD promises to deport 'problem-migrants' (there's upwards to 250,000 presently on a national deport-list (either because of failed asylum applications, crime, bad-boy behavior, etc). How this AfD deport effort would be fixed/resolved over the present program?  Unknown. 

Several countries on this bulk deport list...don't want the bad-boys back.  AfD can't answer how this would be fixed.  Some suggest just dumping them into Africa (after you pay them some bribe to accept them).

Some CDU-voters see a coalition effort as questionable because you can't clearly present a solution.

Fourth, and final....because of a crappy birth-rate....there's a national shortage of workers.  So the CDU-CSU (and SPD) folks....see a need to have migration.  Presently, the gov't says around 300,000-plus migrants with 'green-cards' are employed for retirement-homes, clinics, and hospitals.  

I can walk around Mainz and Wiesbaden....noting a couple of thousand non-Germans hired and paying taxes while working.  If I were on a humble guess....75-percent of migrants are fitting in and part of the German economy.  I went to the drink-shop yesterday....both the clerk and stock-guy....were migrants.  Couple of months ago...I stopped at a Burger King regionally....noting seven Sri Lankan ladies...manning the entire flipper-force.  

An odd part of this discussion?  I noted about a year ago in some German state election....the news crew had analyzed new incoming voter trends for the AfD.  There were x-number from the Greens, SPD, CDU and even Linke Party.  They weren't clear conservative types....they were just fed-up over crime, the lack of deportation, and the appearance of no one in charge of resolving bad-boy migrant issues. They'd like to fire someone, or some party....but can't seem to ID such a person or group.

Where things are going?

At some point....the economic stumbling will reach a stage where blame will be dished out, and neither the SPD or CDU-CSU folks can present themselves.  The AfD?  Well....if they were smart and grasped the evolving mess....they'd evolve their migration 'promise', and get into a Trump-like state of mind....fixing the economy, and stabilizing jobs. The key here?  You need the Ukraine-war ended....Russian natural gas to be turned-on, and the energy costs to be cut drastically.  

There is no simple fix, and the AfD is not the perfect coalition-partner to 'dance' with....but so far (up to the fall of 2026)....this 'dance-contest' and music has been a two-string banjo experience.  

My Humble Thoughts On Merz's Exit

 There's no real comparison (historically) to compare against the current woes....so it's hit and miss.

There are five state elections that currently worry the CDU Party (Merz's crew): 18 Apr (Schleswig-Holstein, and the Saarland),  25 Apr (Nordrhein-Westfalen), 30 May (Bremen), and 26 Sep (Niedersachsen). 

If you drew up a list of the top forty CDU members after Merz....I'd suggest virtually all of them are worried about the numbers/polling for these five state elections.

They also are worried that switching out the Chancellor situation....and gaining no momentum.....just makes matters worse. 

For the most part, I see only two guys who can fill the shoes....NRW's Premier President....Wust, and Bavaria's Premier President....Soder.  That's it.

A gain in some way?  As long as they are handcuffed to the coalition-partner (the SPD)....there's no gain (my humble belief).

Dumping everything and asking for a new national election before you get to the 18th of April 2027?  It's a crazy idea, but it's probably worth thinking about.

 Was Merz over-sold?  He was supposed to be a economic-builder and smart guy on industry.  But that image never 'arrived'.

If Merz sticks it out....through all of 2027?  Of the five elections, I'd go and suggest that one out of three normal CDU voters....probably will find some alternate party to vote for in 2027.

Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: Election Oddity

 One odd aspect of this state election....there are a total of 688 'districts' in the state (northern coastal region).

SPD won (had a majority of votes) in 59 districts.

AfD?  Well....they had a majority of votes in 626 districts.

The SPD wins?  Urbanized areas....cities and towns of 'size'.

Rural areas?  Mostly went to AfD.

21 Sep 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

 1.  Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania final count.  BSW and CDU....fell below 5-percent (4.9 for the CDU, and 4.8 for BSW)....so neither get seats in the state parliament.  Dismal situation for Merz, and crew.  Odd landscape for the state....left-of-center SPD leads with a coalition of Greens and Linke Party.  AfD is the opposition (by its self).  

General belief....there's likely to be a exit-plan of some type for Merz as Chancellor....by early spring 2027.  

2.  Interior Minister said over the weekend....he wants to revoke the special-status of Syrians to stay in Germany...meaning with x-amount of time....they'd all have to exit.  Odds of this happening?  I'd say less than 50-50 chance.

3.  Oktoberfest spending?  Per-day....it's around 92 Euro per person....for beer/food/fun.

4.  Remmo.....crime-clan 'boss' in Berlin....showed up at the Linke Party victory party.  

5.  Berlin-City election odd factor....almost 50-percent of people under the age of 35...voted for the Linke Party.

6. This brief suggestion of the SPD winning in Mecklenburg?  Yeah, it's odd....polls for about 3 months had shown AfD ahead by 3-to-5 point...each time.  Then one single ending-poll concludes that the SPD had passed the AfD by 2 points....then the ARD/ZDF public TV folks appeared the week prior and did a heavy blitz of interviews to support the SPD Party. 

Invented?  Well....it makes one wonder.

Berlin-City Election

 BSW: 5-percent

CDU: 20-percent

Linke: 24.5-percent (winner)

SPD: 12-percent

Greens: 15-percent

AfD: 16-percent

No real shocker.  Highly divided in the city at this point.

State Election: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

 Count as of 6 PM:

AfD wins: 37-percent.

SPD: 35.5-percent

CDU: 5.5-percent

Linke: 7.5-percent

Greens: 5.5-percent

BSW: 5-percent

Coalition build?  AfD is unlikely to get a coalition situation....so it's likely to be the SPD, Linke and Greens.  Shocker?  Last polling suggested better outcome for SPD.

Is There A France Fuel Crisis?

 Well....it's slowly developed into one (very noticeable in mid-Sep).

France is stuck with both a fuel shortage and a price-hike.

Roughly 11-percent of stations are short on either gas, or diesel. If you go back two weeks ago....it was 9-percent.

Pricing?  Diesel now runs around 2.39 Euro per liter....with some stations up around 2.50 to 2.60.

Blame?  First, there's the global shift in delivery going on.  Then you have some French ports being blocked by fisherman, and then there's a 'rush' for demand at the lower-priced stations.  Finally, one can bring up....higher number of diesel cars (nearing 50-percent).  

Same in Germany?  No.  There is escalation of prices, but no shortage.

20 Sep 2027: Germany: 6 Stories

 1.  Day one of Oktoberfest: around 600 individuals treated for serious intoxication.  

2.  Dormant bank accounts?  Germany has identified tens of thousands accounts...totaling around four billion Euro....just sitting there and no visit by the owner in at least a decade. The Green Party is writing a draft law that 'someone' (maybe the banks....maybe the gov't) needs to review ownership....find the owners or heirs, or dissolve the account into the government's hands/pocket).  

3.  Voting day in two German states.  

State of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?  One single recent poll suggests that the SPD will win (over the AfD) by 2 points.  Previous polls gave 3-point edge to AfD over the SPD.  

State of Berlin-City?  Fairly divided...Linke Party figured to win with 23-percent of the vote...closely followed by the CDU, SPD, Greens, and AfD. 

4.  Fifth and last season of Babylon Berlin TV-series has started (last night).  

I strongly endorse the series but you need to start with season one and go through each season. 

5.  N-TV report....mid-summer 2027....conscription/draft....probably will start (numbers aren't reaching level that people expected). 

First step....you get a letter to come to a health exam by a military doctor-team.  

6.  LNG (natural gas) storage for Germany....at 56.3-percent....goes up around .1 per day presently.  If this were a serious winter....there would be issues brewing by early March.  

Is There a Gas Crisis Starting In Germany?

 What you have....is a public perception....as gas deliveries slowed slightly (US-Iran chaos)....the typical price creeped up.  So E-10 fuel is around 2.40 Euro presently. 

So the blunt truth.  There are two taxes and levies....on each liter of fuel sold.

Energiesteuer (energy tax, formerly Mineralölsteuer) is a fixed exercise duty of 65.45 cents per liter on standard sulfur-free gasoline. 

Mehrwertsteuer (VAT): 19-percent applied to the entire net price, including the energy tax and other levies. 

Then there is a CO₂-Abgabe (carbon price/national emissions trading under the BEHG): a levy on CO₂ emissions from fuels. It's around 15 cents per liter.

Then there is the Erdölbevorratungsabgabe (oil stockpiling levy / EBV contribution), which is a small fee (around 0.27 cents per liter) that funds Germany’s strategic petroleum reserves. 

Having just one single tax?  It would go far in solving the escalation in prices....but no one really wants to do it. 

19 Sep 2026: Germany: 7 Stories

 1.  This EU-Canada 'associate' chatter?  Number of journalists came up and asked questions.  

What you can now say....factually....the EU does not have a official status as 'associate-member'.  They talked about it for Ukraine about a year ago, but that talk went nowhere.  They have not approached a single EU country to officially 'bless' such a status.  

So all that Thursday night chatter on Germany's ZDF (public TV) news?  BS?  Mostly the EU bluffing the story.  

There already being a trade status between the two?  Yeah....for eight-plus years, so that's nothing new.

It is kinda funny....they got hype for roughly 24 hours, and the hype sorta died-out.

2.  Deal done....US has protection status over Greenland.  No chance that China or Russia establishes a presence there.  

Danes fairly shocked (by my opinion)....no one ever thought they were at risk of anything (invasion or such).  Somehow....Trump in some crazy way....got a 'deal' (at zero cost).  

3.  Gas relief?  Merz got a 'deal'....the energy tax on gas/diesel is to be reduced by 14 cents per liter. If you include the VAT, this results in a tax reduction of 17 cents per liter.  

Enough?  As you imagine pricing right now?   Yes.  If the pricing goes up another 30-odd cents?  They'd have to revisit this situation....with more relief.

Starts 1 October, and ends at end of December.

Merz coalition also worked up.... a fuel price cap with the fuel industry. Some details left to square it away.  Starts 1 Jan 2027....at latest. 

Opposition?  Curiously, the Greens and Linke Party call the plan 'madness'....saying the oil companies are raking in profits. 

4.  Berlin police did a raid on a employee of the AfD Party's candidate in the city election (coming up shortly).  The police thought they had a illegal weapon.  Well....they were wrong.  But what they found were drugs (never telling what type) and Nazi-history crap (also avoiding details).

On the Nazi-era collectables....generally...most stuff like books, uniforms, and such...are legal to buy.  You'd need to portray the purchase as a history-buff thing, and avoid public displays of your 'stuff'.

 You can walk into flea-markets today and likely find items for sale.  The problem is....you have fake crap (made forty years after the war....sold as legit stuff).  Whether the police have legit 1930s/1940s stuff, or counterfeit stuff....unknown.  On the drugs....cocaine and forty-odd drugs would be illegal....weed/marijuana would be legal.  

Counterfeit and imported in?  Zoll guys are going to review what you bought, and you can figure several weeks of review....with 50-50 odds of them confiscating it. 

5.  Focus article....Denmark study done on university graduates....growing number are unable to find a job after graduation.

6.  Oktoberfest starts today....24 C (mild temp)....blue sky.  

7.  Three weeks ago....I got blitz-camera 'caught' (speeding ticket on the autobahn)....in the state of the Pfalz (not Hessen).  The car tag is registered to the wife.....the pic is me.  I don't argue....I was 18 kph over the limit (100).

Well.....the Pfalz sends the letter a week ago.  Normally...in Hessen....as long as you aren't over 30 kph (over the limit)....you just get a letter to pay the ticket.

The Pfalz sent this letter to the wife....to ask if she wants to deny the ticket.  She obviously said yeah....that was the husband (me).  She has to do this on-line....into some database.  So they asked around ten questions in the database.  She inputs all my personal data.

Six days pass, and yesterday....I get a letter from the Pfalz police....do I want to deny the violation?  Oddly, they don't put the violation cost (I figure around 65 Euro), or where to send the money.  Instead, they want me to admit what I've done...before we talk money. 

I asked the wife what happens if I do nothing....I got a 12-minute lecture on 'doing-the-right-thing'.  

Platform Control?

 Talk started up today....in Hessen....over a pilot-program.  They want to organize the Frankfurt train station in such a way....that you would NOT be able to access any of the twenty-odd platforms (arrival or leaving)...unless you had a ticket. 

Obviously, there would be AI....some scan capability....a 'arm-control'.

Several years ago....I was at Den Haag and Amsterdam....where they had such a system running.

Happening in 2027?  No one says that....just that they want to start a program, and Frankfurt would be the choice.

Are there people there....just wandering around the platforms (currently)?  No one says that.  If you asked me....there's probably around a hundred 'walkers' in the Frankfurt station....with no purpose or agenda (other than perhaps robbing you or selling drugs).

NBC Report: Downsizing of US Forces Europe?

 So the story goes....apparently from some Pentagon source, that Sec/War tasked EUCOM/Pentagon to study the idea of downsizing 25,000 troops (minimum), and reflecting a new future.

What you should take from this?

First, several rumors in the past week....Poland asking for a US base.  This may fit into the agenda, with either Lakenheath or Spang fighters....moving with some US Army folk to some joint-base in Poland.

I'm also likely to believe that headquarters staffs at EUCOM, Ramstein and Wiesbaden.....probably will downsize, and re-locate.

I'm less likely to believe that US Navy gives up it's bases in this plan.

Where this leads onto?  The SECWAR expects some report (menu-type) in November and the President approves this in January.  House/Senate will have some say.

Big deal?  This is what should have been done in the mid-1990s. The negative I can see....if Wiesbaden's installation shuts down....that's the end of commissary/BX privileges/use.   

Wasn't There Already A Trade 'Treaty' Between The EU And Canada

 Well....mostly forgotten....but back in 2016...it was 'signed' and made official in early 2017.  In the deal....99-precent of tariff stuff between the two....dissolved away.

Naturally, you'd ask....with the hype from yesterday....is there some new trade deal?  No.  For numbers....2025.....around 5.5-percent of Canada shipped out....went to EU customers. (Hint: that's about one-percent more than in 2024).

If you asked me over yesterday's hype being more of a 'show'?  Yeah, it got a lot of hype in Canada, and throughout Germany.  

If you asked a typical German what they buy from Canada?  Well....Canadian whisky and maple-flavored spirits, some Niagara icewine, premium seafood (lobster, scallops, certain fish), Canola oil, frozen potato products (McCain is well known, and my wife buys this monthly), and maple syrup.

Would the typical German buy 'more'?  Maybe if the Canadian dollar were lower and the whisky was 10-to-20 percent cheaper...yeah.  More maple syrup?  No (the wife buys three bottles per year and lectures me constantly about evil syrup.  

What Is The German 'Fake-O-Meter'?

Well....I heard the term this AM, and looked into it.

The word “Fake-O-Meter” is NOT a German official government name. It is the word created by the  German outlet NIUS (right-wing news establishment)....for a publicly funded research project called kuKI. 

What is kuKI?  kuKI (“Kulturalisierungssensible KI-Assistenz für eine desinformationsresiliente multilinguale Gesellschaft”).

It's a AI 'tool' for detecting and classifying disinformation....after fact-checking....with BS that comes in German, Russian or Turkish.

Gov't funded?  Federal Ministry for Research, Technology and Space (BMFTR) paid for it with 3.2 million Euro.

AI figures out the disinformation?  Yeah. 

I pondered upon this....AI creating fake BS....AI discovering fake BS.  You don't require a middle-man

Fake news AI learning?  I would imagine every hour....it's writing a 'lessons-learned' summary, and the fake news BS gets better.

But on the other side of this....people are now relying upon AI to tell them 'this-is-BS'.  They can't match the skills/wits of AI that easily.

What happens when the fake-o-meter says it's true (not BS) and hurts the gov't message/brand?  No one says much over that idea.  

18 Sep 2026: Germany: 12 Stories

1.  Brandenburg: ISIS terror guy arrested.  Had been to Bremen....scouting out 'targets'.

2.   Berlin Airport (BER)....police were called and arrested some passenger (Estonian)....for attempted manslaughter on a airport employee.  What the police say....the guy arrived late at a gate for boarding....was prevented from boarding, and goes into some massive anger.

3.  Sunday's outlook for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election?

Neck-and-neck for SPD and AfD....both will be in 35-to-37 percent range.  CDU marginally holding at 6-percent.  

4.  Coach Jürgen Klopp has nominated 44 players for his first four matches as national coach. 

It was a odd news evening last night.....ARD 8 PM news led off....news number item ONE....Klopp highlights for 2.5 minutes.  9:45 PM news on ZDF....Klopp highlights....news item number FIFTEEN....last 2.5 minutes of the newscast.

For German sports enthusiasts.....it felt like Moses had come off the mountain with the tablets.

5.  German Chancellor Merz gave a talk yesterday (Thursday)....CDU Party event.

Basically said that no hospitals, care homes, construction sites, restaurants, or hotels in Germany would function without integrated immigrant workers.  

Correct.  Just for care-homes alone....the figure thrown around is 350,000 migrant workers.  In the hospitality industry....the gov't estimate is near 40-percent of the force required....are migrants.  I walked into a Burger King shop in 2025....where the staff on shift (6 employees) were all migrant women.  

6.  Poll done by YouGov....almost half of Germans in the poll....figure by 1 January 2027....Merz will not be Chancellor

Via news/social media....lot of hype since early spring (2026) on marginal accomplishments of Merz.  I'd give 75-percent of the blame on this....this partnership between the CDU-CSU and SPD....rest of the blame goes to expectations of the public that Merz was bringing massive expertise on finance and reforms to save jobs.

7.  WELT piece this AM....SPD Party state administrator...says that young people on social benefits....should NOT be allowed to leave/exit parent's house.....to be on their own (costing more social funding).

8.  Poll done by RTL-TV news.....eight out of ten eastern Germans....say democracy is NOT working.  Nationally (east and west)....it's four out of ten Germans suggesting democracy has 'crapped-out' (my words).

They aren't saying the fix or resolution....just that they were expecting something 'better'.

If you asked me....social/news media folks....over the past twenty-odd years...have hyped up some great hope/benefits of democracy (like a used Mercedes car)....and things haven't worked that well.

9.  PM of Poland....hypes potential Russian attack on European countries....suggesting a US base in Poland would be a 'sure-fix'.  

10.  N-TV piece this AM....Norwegian authorities have found a sunken Nazi submarine.  They are suggesting it's dangerous for the food chain, and want some type of action.  They didn't come out to say Germany needs to step-up but you get the feeling they want German involvement.

11. Lithuania has discovered a couple of tunnels...used for people-smuggling....from Belarus into Lithuania.

12.  ZDF news at 9:45 PM last night....probably spent a good eight minutes hyping up the partnership deal with the EU and Canada.

I paused over it.  EU's 'standard' for economic measures (for new membership)....the national budget deficit must stay at or below 3-percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)....plus the public debt should not exceed 60-percent of GDP.  Well....currently....Canada's general government gross debt is approximately 113.5-percent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP).  Yeah....it's a wreck.  Oddly, this part of the story was not explained by ZDF.

The plus-up for Canada?  There would be EU-entry deals for job-visas.  Currently, at least in most of eastern Canada....the unemployment rate is near 7-percent.  Those folks might find job opportunities in the EU.  I could easily see 10,000 Canadians by spring of 2027....employed in the Netherlands, Germany or Austria.  Most of them would even say the European health system is better than the Canadian system.

Germany: Authority To Shoot Down Drones Over German Bases?

 Is there legal authority in Germany to shoot down drones over German bases?  Well....yes.

There is now some legal authority for the Bundeswehr to shoot down drones over its own military bases, but it's carefully worded....it's not automatic or unlimited. 

On Bundeswehr property, soldiers can already use force under the UZwGBw (the law governing direct coercion by the armed forces) to protect troops, facilities, and operational readiness. 

The wording says the military may jam, divert, or as a last resort use weapons if milder options fail and proportionality is observed. 

A separate 2026 amendment to the Luftsicherheitsgesetz (Aviation Security Act), passed by the Bundestag in late February of 2026....and the Bundesrat in early March....says explicit last-resort shoot-down powers exist....IF police request assistance. 

If you read the wording....anytime that human life is threatened....or critical infrastructure is threatened....and no other means will work; the German Army can now authorize it without prior Interior Ministry approval.  

Frankfurt: Third Death By Malaria Reported

 Authorities say.....the individual lived in the Schwanheim district, about five km from the airport.

About a month ago....were the first two folks reported dead.  

Six infected...three dead at this point.

Bombs

 Around 4:20 AM....in Frankfurt.....detonations occurred at a café on Berger Straße and a shisha bar on Zeil.

This is the second round of bombs in the past week....mostly designed to damage structure (not to harm people).

Mafia-war?  Well....if you look at social media chatter....it goes that way.  

What The Greek Finance Minister Said

 Greek Finance Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis....got into a analysis opinion of Germany's economical 'spiral'....urging Germany to pursue economic reforms.

I would imagine the German finance guys grumbled a good bit privately.

The Greek crisis was back in 2009, and it was a good harsh five or six years....before things got resolved. 

Chancellor's Ten-Point Plan Against Terrorism Released

 I pondered over the list today:

1.  Expand criminal law on the dissemination of propaganda materials of terrorist organizations.

    -- Basically, if you were a terror organization and pumped-out propaganda....there would be some German folks to collect it.    

2.  Impose harsher penalties for particularly dangerous bodily injuries (e.g., knife attacks). 

    -- You'd have to prove the point of terror being involved (like yelling Allah Akbar).  Minimum sentence presently is one year....for serious knifing...up to 13 years.  My humble guess is that they'd have to push the sentence up to 20.  

3.  Adjust youth criminal law in a targeted and timely manner.

    -- I'd question legality of this and if the Constitutional Court would agree.  

4.  Give greater weight to public security interests in decisions on probation.  

    -- Would require some agreement by the SPD.

5.  Improve information exchange between security authorities, the justice system and prisons.  

    -- You have to ask....why wasn't this done already ten years ago.

6.  Enable state police forces (not only federal agencies) to order the securing of telecommunications traffic data.  

    -- Still requires judge's consent.

7.  Create uniform standards for electronic ankle monitors (Fußfesseln) and preventive detention.

    -- Something that should have occurred ten to fifteen years ago.  

8.  Act more consistently against supporters and financiers of terror groups (including a new offence for collecting donations).  

    -- Probably the best idea from the ten.

9.  Strengthen prevention (including greater responsibility for digital platforms on extremist content, education and work in communities).  

10.  Make deradicalization programes more effective.

    -- How?  (Unexplained)

16 Sep 2026: Germany: 7Things

 1.  Gas price at noon in my village....E-10.....2.48 Euro.  Just guessing....in two weeks....bound to hit 2.68 Euro per liter.

2.  EU says they have a mechanism to make Canada a 'associate' member.  Whether it'll be a national vote or just a parliament vote....unknown.

3.  Culture Minister Weimer did a talk today....asking whether the public TV system in Germany is still needed in its current form. He wants to radically reduce ARD and sell ZDF.  Part of this relates to a cost factor....what it takes for both continue on.

Selling ZDF?  The TV folks there would go 'crazy'....probably to be downsized by half.  Positive side?  They have a decent TV movie production side, and have several gameshows that draw viewers. Who would buy them?  My humble guess is that RTL might have some ideas (plus the cash).  

4.  Stadthagen (NW Germany) a argument started up between several children over a ball escalated on Tuesday evening. Cops say 30 adults gathered for a brawl....five (at least) were wounded.

When police arrived....they went straight to pepper-spray to untangle the mess.

5.  I sat and watched a news piece last night....regional German school operation (gymnasium)....13-year old kids being taught some aspect of recognizing fake news.  Curious thing....at no point did they ask AI what was AI-created....they had to use their 'wits'.

6.  EU talking about a 'water-plan'....three parts I noted....fixing infrastructure leaks (nearly 25-percent of water is estimated to be lost in pipes)....getting some type of drought risk management up and running, and enhancing water security for industry and food production.  

7.  Natural gas reserves 'tanks' for Germany....as of the 16th....filled to 56-percent of capacity.  

'Streamers'?

 Last night, via ZDF (public German TV, Channel 2)....ran Frontal (news documentary show).  So the highlight...for roughly 10 minutes....was a piece about 'streamers'....the 'most-evil' folks on Earth (my wife was convinced of this by the end of the 'talk').

So....I needed a true explanation of 'streamers'.  This AM...I asked Grok (AI).  In Germany today, a Streamer (feminine: Streamerin) usually means a person who does a broadcast (live video) over the internet.  Typical platform used?  X/Twitter, YouTube, Kick, TikTok, etc. 

In most cases....they play some 'game', chat with somebody, cook, perform make-up attention, etc.

Paid?  Oh yeah....nobody does it for free.

So this Frontal episode was solely about AfD (the party) using 'influencers' or 'streamers'.  

At the conclusion....I wondered....the journalists only alerted on AfD....were the other parties using 'streamers' as well?

OH YEAH....AI then went to detail the environmentalists, the Greens, the BSW folks, and Linke Party.  SPD and CDU marginally 'helped'?  Yeah, that was the amusing part of the story...the two parties in desperate need of 'help'/votes....weren't using 'streamers'.  

Why leave these 'streamers' out of the story?  Unknown.

Fuel Chaos Brewing?

 Locally, for me, E-10 gas is sitting at 2.33 Euro per liter this AM.  Saudi hype....some shipments are not going to occur over the next month.....is worrying folks, and suggesting prices might get to 2.50....maybe even 2.70.

So....the Merz coalition is discussing eight ideas. Listed?  (I read these off a Focus business article....which I consider reliable):

VAT reduction : Lowers the gross price, but triggers high tax losses.

Reduction of energy tax: Relief is provided by a fixed amount per liter.  EU problem...there are minimum tax rates mandated.

Fuel discounts: They can take effect quickly, cost the state billions, and primarily benefit frequent drivers.  Four months ago....this was a temp-fix.

Fuel price cap: Limits the price immediately, but can cause market distortions and additional government costs.

Excess profit tax: Merz has already rejected this option. It could have skimmed off extraordinary profits from oil companies, but would not have directly lowered fuel prices.

Lowering the CO2 price would make fuels cheaper, but would weaken the incentive to protect the climate.

Direct aid: This could provide targeted relief to particularly affected households, but would need to be organized and financed.

Mobility allowance: Could support low-income commuters with their travel costs, but does not lower the price of fuel at the pump.

My guess?  In approximately ten days....a fix will be created....with two of these suggested ideas (of the eight)....going halfway on each.  Time limit?  Probably fixed to end in early-to-mid January 2027.

This being easily fixed if the war in Ukraine ended, and gas-trading were to settle back with the Russians?  Well....that comes up as a discussion topic daily.

How fast will the fuel escalation occur? I'm one to believe that E-10 could already be near 2.60 by the end of next week.  

CDU-SPD-CSU....Power Parties of the 1960s

 Up through the 1970s....the combined vote of the CDU-CSU and SPD Parties....usually ran around 85-percent. 

Today, I looked at the most recent poll...if you combine the three....it ranks to 31-percent.  Only three out of ten German voters would vote for one of the three.

Five Observations

 1.  More Malaria?

Well....two more cases near the Frankfurt Airport (near Schwanheim....about 5 km north of the Airport...closer to the river).

What the authorities are suggesting....if you have a fever of any type....go to the doctor and ask for a test.

2.  The Chancellor is discussing gas-price-relief.

Price for E-10 per liter?  Near 2.35 Euro.  There's some discussion that in the past day or two....Saudi Arabia has given notice....some deliveries will not be on time.  The hype?  You might see prices escalate up to 2.50 (this is public opinion not gov't opinion).  

3.  Court case in Bavaria going on....Police-woman raping a 14-year old girl.

I had to get 5 lines into the story...where they finally say....transwoman.

To convict the lady....they need the 14-year-old girl to make a court appearance....which is a 50-50 odds situation.

4.  'Super-cell' activity noted for Wed in the northern one-third of Germany.  Will be pretty harsh weather.

5.  Sabotage reports across the Netherlands this AM....30-odd locations (railway points).

EU Social Media Chatter

 The EU stood up today and says in some way....it wants to introduce a law on social media usage. Accounts should only be available from 15 years old.  

Age verification?  Mandatory for everyone. The costs of the regulation are to be borne by the operators.

I pondered upon this....they (the EU)....can't really say how age 15 was selected.

Then this cost issue....no, the cost will be handed down in various ways to the media companies themselves....you can call it a fee, or tax, or whatever....but the individuals will pay in the end.

The simplest 'fix'?  Treat it the same way as Lotto 'entry'.  Print out a card....write your ID card number and name....walk to the village post office, and have them verify you in the system....stamp it, and you get into the 'system'.  The post office would charge a Euro or two for the service.

Satisfying the EU?  I doubt it.

EU regulating this in some fashion, and having a cost of 15 to 20 Euro?  That's my bet.

Fresh Poll For Mecklenburg-Vorpommern State Election

 Likely to be last one before Sunday's election, from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen:

AfD likely to 'win' with 37 percent, and SPD in second place with 34 percent.

Greens at marginal 5 percent, CDU at 7 percent, and Linke at 10 percent.

If AfD can't form a coalition?  SPD gets the nod, and likely forms with Linke, Greens. 

15 Sep 2026: Germany: 7 Stories

 1.  Munich murder trial opening up.  Yemen guy came to Germany....brought kids (they weren't his apparently)....brought the legit wife.  Wife wanted to report the fraud.  Husband beheads the wife to prevent her from reporting.   Based on charges....if convicted of all of them....he'd remain in a German prison for remainder of his life.

2.  Some task force being created in the city of Berlin....to examine hefty rent prices.  They'd have some power to bring landlords into court....prosecute.  

3.  New YouGov national poll: AfD at 29-percent, CDU-CSU at 18-percent (down 2).

Greens up (1) to 16-percent.  SPD at 13-percent (up 1).

Linke at 10-percent (down 2). FDP at 5-percent and BSW at 4-percent (up 1).

4.  Offenbach city: 60-year old guy shot dead in front of grocery.  Witnesses noted some guy.....shots (plural) reportd....shooter escaped.

5.  WELT: Some rumor started up.....this weekend is another state election (Mecklenburg-Vorpommern).  Chancellor Merz will be among key top leadership of CDU-CSU.  As the story goes....if there are terrible numbers for the CDU in this state election....he'll ask for a vote of confidence to continue.  If you read polling for the state....best numbers are 6-to-7 percent.  Some folks believe it's possible that it'll be less than 5-percent (meaning no seats in the state assembly).  

6.  New E-Polo from VW.....under 25k Euro.....hot item.....already 30,000 orders in the system for it.  

7.  Furth: some local pool 'mystery'......pool authorities report up to around 100 pairs of flip-flops being stolen during the season.  

Sweden: Curious Deal

Sweden currently....has a government deal....if you are guest-migrant with a pre-2024 residency permit.....they will pay up to 600,000 SEK (roughly $60k)....per household....to voluntarily leave the country.  

Basically, they hope you will take the money, and leave....without a lot of drama.

So when they say household....they are suggesting the husband and wife...with the kids.

How many have taken the deal?  171 folks.

In the past month....the right-wing politicians got into the middle of this.  They want the deal expanded....to include regular Swedes.  The plan  would read.....you have decided Sweden is not the place for you....you've reviewed options, and chosen to leave.  You were born here.....you went to school here, and no longer feel the citizenship is worth keeping.

The  gov't folks are mostly shaking their heads....this exit deal was only intended for migrants.

My Thoughts On Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland Exiting The UK?

 The story goes....tomorrow....the three will meet and organize one joint exit document and prepare the general public for what will likely come by the end of 2026.

Scotland opinion....mostly tied around 44-percent for/against....with around 10-percent undecided.  This would be the group of interest.

Wales? Latest poll shows only 26-percent in favor....so it's very unlikely to pass.

Northern Ireland? It's in the 35-percent range or a united Ireland (from a August poll).

So if you ask me....lot of chatter, but Scotland is the only one of the three that might exit (likely to re-enter the EU).

Story From Last Friday Evening

German police tell this story. 

This started up on a train between Neuss and Essen (NW Germany)....Friday evening.

So....a drunk Iraq 'teen' got tangled up in a fight against what was a couple of 16-year old kids (mostly girls).

Aggegedly....he groped one guy (non-German)...touching the guy via his buttocks/genitals.  Then he held some German teen girl....kissing her.  They got loose....got the train conductor involved.

The drunk Iraqi teen then reportedly approached several girls....where warnings by the conductor didn't really change the situation.

The train conductor led the students out of the car.

The crap continued on....with two German students punched (with his fist).  One is severely wounded.

So, finally.....police enter the train.  The drunk kid continued with his behavior problem.  He made a couple of swings at the police....offered more verbal threats.

I sat and counted up....charge-wise....there's probably 15-odd charges.

Problem?  He's 18....even convicted....he'll be treated as a juvenile...so figure by age 21....he'll probably be released from juvenile-prison. AfD gets a story like this and floats it by the public.....just another reason to get tough on deportation.

Had he been 21?  Adult-court....probably upwards to ten to twelve years of time.  

Frankfurt: Crime-Clan 'War'

 Last night....between 4 and 5 AM....two explosive events in Frankfurt and Offenbach areas.  One was a pub....other being a Kiosk. 

Police investigating....no suspects yet.

Part of a ongoing situation....several over the past couple of years.

Trump-Ireland-United Chatter

What currently keeps the island divided (Ireland and Northern Ireland)?

Well....the island was partitioned in 1921 (by the UK). The six counties that became Northern Ireland were chosen because they had a unionist (largely Protestant, British-identifying) majority at the time.

If you go and chat with folks....they all admit that a vote could change things, but the majority of Northern Irish aren't willing to go to a united status.

Part of this continuing trend....the fact that the UK has funding going to Northern Ireland yearly?  Yeah, that probably makes up a quarter of 'stay-as-is'.

Most of the Northern Irish folks....if you engage in a conversation....will say they identify more as British....than Irish.

Trump's talk?  Well....it'll get into the news and be discussed in bars/pubs....but mostly go nowhere.

Explaining The Purpose Of A Kiosk

 You find them mostly in medium and large-sized cities of Germany....mostly in urbanized 'blocks'.  Size-wise....mostly 4 meters by 4 meters (rarely larger)....around 172 sq ft.

They mostly sell sodas, beer, candy, newspapers, 'smokes', lotto-tickets and magazines.

Hours?  Most open around 7 AM, and closing will occur between 6 and 10 PM.

If you ask the guy/gal running it on profit....they mostly will admit it's enough to sustain a couple....maybe one or two part-time employees.

Folks will come from a block or two away.....to buy a beer....socialize....and swap gossip.  Rarely are there chairs or tables set up.  It's mostly a standing-situation.

I won't say it's a dying commerce....but if you counted up all the kiosk operations in Frankfurt in 1978....probably only half of them still exist today.

You stop at the window....making your request/order.  You never get invited inside.  There might be three or four 'lean-stands' where you can sip your beer and swap soccer opinions with an associate.  Occasionally, the chatter might get to politics, scandal, TV options tonight, 'Jungle-Camp' BS, some police drama in the city, or some tale of woe over a neighbor.

If The Coalition (CDU-CSU-SPD) Collapsed?

Well....it does not mean automatically a new election.  The CDU-CSU could linger as a minority government.  The Chancellor in this position....probably would ask for a vote of confidence (from the 630 seats) and hope that he got 315 minimum.  If that fails....the President would schedule a new election within 60 days....giving everyone a limited time to meet...get agendas lined up, and vote for a lead candidate.

If new elections are called for?  This would likely occur by early December.

Polling?  AfD leads most polls....around 28-percent.  The CDU-CSU folks are polling around 19-to-21 percent.  SPD?  Around 13-percent.

Greens?  14-to-16 percent.  BSW, at 4-to-5 percent (they'd have to pull 5-plus.....to get seats).  Linke Party, at 10-to-12 percent.  FDP currently at 4-percent...meaning they probably would not get seats.

If you asked me over the CDU-CSU candidate? Hendrik Wüst (CDU), Markus Söder (CSU), Thorsten Frei (CDU), Johann Wadephul (CDU), and Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) are the top five.  

Public problem to drag upon such a election?  Mostly economic woes, unemployment, public safety, and natural gas pricing.  

The unusual conditions presently?  Merz was supposed to be this super-fix for the economy, and nothing much has come of that 'brand'. Looking over the SPD and CDU-CSU 'promises'.....none of the two really can openly promise much over the economy.  

Outcome?  AfD would 'win' but be unable to form a coalition....meaning the weakened CDU forms with the Greens, SPD....to get a short-term coalition (probably no more than two years)....then another election. 

13 Sep 2026: Germany: 3 Stories

 1.  I dragged the portable AC unit back to the basement....for storage.  I counted up the days of use....18 total....most of any year since buying it five years ago.  

2.  BILD did a survey....only 14-percent of Germans believe Merz is the right-guy for the Chancellor's job.

I would add....they didn't ask 'who' should be replacing him.  

3.  Some talk going on....Labor Minister and SPD leader Bärbel Bas is rumored to be pushed-out, and some talk revolves around the SPD refusing this idea that the CDU is supporting....meaning they would exit the coalition.  The CDU-CSU would survive in this scenario....as a minority gov't (pretty rare thing).  

This leads folks to think that some collapse will occur, and a 'new' federal election might be in the works (without Merz)....in the next six months.  Crazy talk.....if you ask me.

12 Sep 2026: Germany: 4 Stories

 1.  Watched a piece this AM off N-TV....suggesting natural gas prices this winter in Germany....might escalate up to 20-percent.

2.  Some Linke Party MP in the Bundestag....did some heckling during a session....given a fine of 2,000 Euro.

3.  Berlin-City 'state-election' coming up....17 parties now registered and will be offered.

4.  Bavaria.  WELT has a article this AM.....out of every two murder suspects in the state....one is noted as a non-German.

Odd Political Situation

 On the 20th of September.....a Sunday....in the German state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern....a state election will occur.

Polling current puts the CDU at 6-percent.

If the poll guys are wrong...if the CDU pulls 4.9-percent or less....it turns in a fairly big mess, which the journalists will spend the next month talking about this 'failure'.

Between the AfD and SPD?  They (by the polls) are pulling together around 66-percent.  In third-place are the Linke Party at 12-percent.

11 Sep 2026: Germany: 4 Stories

 1.  If something has already occurred (history-wise)....can some journalist use the term 'prophet' in describing what has already occurred?  I saw this use today in German print-media.

2. This SPD-candidate for Berlin (city) election.....under investigation.  Reading over the hype this AM....three separate issues.  Two of them....cases of accepting undue advantages.  

I'll admit...it's hurting the SPD numbers....with the election in the next 30 days.  If you felt bad about this....you'd still have the Greens or Linke Party to vote for.

Polling presently for this election?  SPD at 12-percent.  Linke Party leading with 21-percent.  CDU at 20-percent.  AfD at 18-precent, and Greens at 16-percent.

3. Premier-President of the Pfalz (state)....made a statement yesterday....that kids entering the German school system have to speak German.  Tests by the state will be mandated.  If you can't speak German upon entry.....it's simply a waste of time.  Rather odd how we reached this point.

4.  SPD pushing agenda....no more 'cash-only' situations.  You'd have to offer card-acceptability.  About twelve times a year....I come across a situation where the entry sign notes this.  The other 99-percent of situations....offer both cash/card.

Steinmeier's Term Ending?

 Frank-Walter Steinmeier’s second five-year term as President of Germany ends on 18 March 2027.   I looked it up this afternoon.

The Federal Convention is scheduled to elect his successor on 30 January 2027.

Intense chatter on 'candidates'?  Probably will start in November.  Only Bundestag members can vote.

How A State Coalition Talk Generally Goes (Saxony-Anhalt Situation)

 The two parties (probably no more than 5 or 6 from each party) gather in a conference room, with a scrip book.....they will have prioritized the important things and outlined what can be 'given-up'.

In the case of BSW (bit far to the left) and AfD (bit to the right)....they have both agreed that having border-control is a absolute.  Beyond that....nothing much has been learned yet.

At the end....if this works....they will have a list of 'posts' assigned to parties, and agree upon most of the hot-projects for the next 12 months.

BSW badly needs a public image....so I'm guessing they agree to a fair amount of what AfD wants, and come to three or four things....which have to be in their favor.

Will the coalition last five years?  Anyone's guess here.  BSW is in some hopes for 2027....next year' state elections....that they can show progress, and gain votes.  

Two odd groups in some agreement?  Yeah....it's fairly weird.  Added to this....both are pro-Russia to some degree, and anti-US to some degree.  

10 Sep 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

 1.  Group of CDU political folks (nat'l level) are taking a opposition point to Merz....on tax-chatter.  They are saying the new discussed plastic-tax is a no-go.  Also discussed....the new crypto-currency tax.  And the sugar tax.

These taxes mostly pushed by SPD Party to Merz?  Yeah.  Without full support of the CDU....these may not go into effect.

2.  Meerbusch (NW Germany, near Dusseldorf).....guy approaches police waving a knife around.  After several orders to drop it....they fire....killing the guy.

3.  11 AM today....national siren/alarm day....test throughout Germany occurs.

4.  BSW Party accepts fully....in Saxony-Anhalt....coalition talks with AfD Party.  

5.  SPD Party top candidate for the Berlin-City state-election coming up....raided by the police.  Some of political donation accusation.  Timing of this...makes one think it was a set-up.  

6.  This sub-station saboteur guy (arrested by the police)....was not employed (long-term) and apparently 'survived' off pocket-money that his mother gave him. 

Ukraine Story

German authorities came out today (Wed)....to say 'yes, we will help Ukraine identify young Ukrainian men in Germany....to return 'home' and fight for the fatherland'.

Basically....these are young men (20s, 30s and probably 40s)...who have a legit ID card (green-card) and probably getting some German gov't aid.

What are the numbers?  German data from 31 October 2025 (including pre-war residents), broken down as roughly 87,000 aged 18–24, 168,000 aged 25–45, and 73,000 aged 46–60.

Guys willing to return?  No.  I would imagine zero nature.

Guys in Germany who are not noted by the Germans?  No one says much....but I might go and suggest a minimum of 10,000 quietly residing.

The Problem With Consequences

 I worked in a Air Force office/shop at the end of my career....where the boss (a Major) was a risk-taker.  It was obvious from day one, and you could pretty much guarantee....if a situation came up requiring decision-making....there was a brief moment of concern and a marginal 'minute' pondering consequences....then he'd make the bold move.  After a while (a long while)....I got used to it, and started think and react like he did. 

What he gave me in terms of perceiving risks and consequences....was this idea that there had to be a 'gain' worth the risk taken.

I came later to the idea that the majority of people simply aren't capable of viewing consequences in their actions, or admitting they committed serious errors in their actions. 

When the 'revolutions' started up in the Middle East and refugees started to look for exit/entry signs....the Germans never got into the consequences mindset.  Even if you get to 2016....3 years into the migration issues....admitting the consequences was not possible.  

AfD being a consequence?  You could make that case today.  The people who vote for AfD?  Well....they used to be CDU-voters, SPD-voters, Linke-voters, FDP-voters, and even Green-voters.  

This is one of the odd things that public TV (ARD/ZDF) never really discuss much.

The layer of issues surrounding crime, assaults, and negative public safety numbers?  You could make the case that it's really not that bad.  Course, you'd be comparing it mostly against data existing around 2010/2012..not the 1990s or 1980s.

The 250,000 on the deportation list?  Yeah, that's a consequence.  

The PISA study on German educational numbers for 2025....looking crappy?  Yeah, that's a consequence.

Blaming someone or some party?  I don't think it's really possible at this point.  It achieves nothing.

Having a open and fair discussion over consequences?  I don't think that's really possible now.  You'd have to admit things, and agree to serious resolutions.  

Odd problem to have.

If Chancellor Merz Resigned Tomorrow? (What The Law Says)

 First, he'd give a letter to President Steinmeier, and he'd (Steinmeier) ask Merz to stay as a 'temp'.  He can decline this, and Steinmeier would then ask the SPD back-up Chancellor (Lars Klingbeil) to assume the job temporarily.

We move to step two then.

A new Chancellor must then be elected by the Bundestag under Article 63. The process has up to three rounds: The President proposes a candidate (one assumes a CDU-guy/gal), but he might shock folks by picking a non-party person. That person needs an absolute majority of all 630 Bundestag members (316 votes).

If that fails, the Bundestag has 14 days to elect someone with an absolute majority on its own.....meaning no suggestion by the President works.

If that also fails, a third ballot is held. A relative majority (most votes) is then enough. The President then decides whether to appoint that person (even if it produces a minority government) or dissolve the Bundestag and call snap elections.

Minority gov't?  It'd dampen 2027 state elections, and likely hurt both the CDU-CSU Party and the SPD Party.

Getting a SPD Chancellor out of this?  I'd give it better than 50-percent odds. Top guy?  Boris Pistorius (Defense Minister currently).  

Helpful for the AfD brand?  Some folks might argue that having Merz resign...is very helpful for the AfD brand.  

Steinmeier gone in January 2027?  Well....term ends, and there's folks planning nominees.....probably to have a Bundestag 'vote' by November.  CDU might be hoping that they get their person put into place, and a Merz-exit would have better conditions.  Could this secret CDU 'winner' put their own name up for the Chancellor job?  The law has conditions....to prevent that.

Any of this scenario being discussed currently...in the open?  Oddly....no.

Analysis of AfD 'Platform'

 Two days ago....AfD published a list of promises....to sell their brand nationally.  My humble view after each:

- Term limit for professional politicians. They will not be able to live off the State for more than eight years.

Getting all of the parties to agree to this...near zero.  If you asked working-class Germans....they might prioritize this...but it won't be a top-ten thing.

- Europe of sovereign states, or an exit if that is not possible.

Exiting the EU?  There might be 30-to-35 percent of people who will sit and listen to the idea...maybe bulk of them agreeing in some ways.  I remember the era prior to the 1990s, and will say....there's various positive things that the EU delivered.  

- End of the euro as a common currency.

Around a decade ago....you could ask and probably 10-percent of Germans felt the DM was a better deal than the Euro.  Today?  I'm not sure how people would see the idea.

- Total border control.

Requires a massive manpower situation....probably over 25,000 hirees.  Police have openly said....they would do the job on a temp-basis (like 6 to 12 months) but if it were permanent....you need a hired-up crew.  Budget for this?  Doesn't exist.

Priority among Germans?  Likely two-thirds of people support this idea.

- Asylum processed outside the EU.

Curious wording....you could not apply for asylum....unless you did it beyond the EU 'borders'.  You'd have to have a workable deportation program....something marginally working at present.  Sounds good on paper until you push for fixing deporation.

- Remigration of criminals and people without residence rights.

Public opinion....I believe 75-percent of Germans support the idea. 

- Tax cuts.

First, you'd have to have budget cuts.....where?

- Energy: nuclear energy, coal, repairs to Nord Stream, no more CO₂ tax, no more ban on combustion engines.

Seen popular in different ways by the public.  Fixing N-S....probably occurs....ONLY after the war ends.  As for nuke energy?  It's hyped as 'evil'....so you'd have to resolve this belief.  The ban on combustion engines?  It's killing the auto-industry.

I should mention here....Germany already has one of the highest grid cost rates of any EU country...presently.

- Pro-nationalist policy.

Might be supported by 40-percent of the pubic.  Half of the media would utter 'nazi' when discussed.

- Promotion of German culture, protection of the German language

Probably in conflict with one-third of German voters.  

- Expulsion of Muslims who reject the German legal system. No to sharia courts

If you explain Sharia....I doubt that more than 10-percent of Germans support some creation.  If you asked Syrian-Germans....more than half probably would say they'd really rather not have such a 'problem' existing.  

- Reinforcement of the police

Merkel hired 10,000 new state/federal police....right before Covid.  My question....that effort was difficult because of quality required for recruits.....where would you find another 10,000 to 15,000 additional folks for the job.  I agree....it's needed.

- Zero tolerance for foreign criminals and mafias.

I'd say they are already ten years too late.  Public would support this.  

New Poll: National Politics in Germany

I paused over this last night:

 AfD: 29 percent 

CDU/CSU: 19.5 percent (down a point)

Greens: 13.5 percent 

SPD: 12.5 percent (up a half-point)

Left Party: 10.5 percent

FDP: 4.5 percent

BSW: 4 percent (up a half-point)

It's not something that you can see as positive for the Merz 'crew'.  On the lefty-side?  Roughly 40-percent of the voting public currently....but highly divided.  (Comes from Focus)

Does German Public TV Deliver Child-Like News?

Well....yeah.

 ARD's takes it's nightly 8 PM news.."Tagesschau".....then translates it into "in einfacher Sprache" (basically 3rd-to-6th grade-level simple language).  

So you can imagine....someone 'drafted'/selected from the team....who has the 15-minute news piece, and spending probably two to three hours....working the wording/graphics around...to give to a 'new' resident of Germany....in simple language.

Yes...simple basic sentences....no fancy words.  The bars/graphs....explained like you were talking to a kid.  Then giving a kid-like description of details.

Could you download the actual word-text from the Tagesschau in your home-language, and get a 4-star translation (without the child-like narrative)?  Yeah.

Personally....I wish they'd do this with the German crime-show dramas, and have someone whittle the 90-minute crime-drama to 20 sentences....so the confusion was less over-all.

Why Putin Eyeballs Germany As A Target?

 Yesterday....Germany's Minister of Defense approved a new military aid package for Ukraine.  Includes PAC-2 Patriot intercepts (from their stock), AIM-9 missiles, and tens of thousands of long-range artillery shells.

Putin notes the transfers and probably just shakes his head...all of these German 'stockpiles' are absolutely a target in his mind.

That PISA Study

 PISA 2025 (released 8 September 2026)....concluded and it's pretty dismal.

German 15-year old kids....lowest scores since they started PISA in 2000.

Science, math and reading all down.

Blame?  What they generally say....the number of 'new' kids (the migrants) are dragging educational progress down.  Marginal interest in the subject matter....lack of respect for teachers....discipline lacking.

Q-and-A:

 1.  Is there anyway to really define 'far-left/far-right'?

No.

When one party says a platform goal is free-bus/rail travel....it really doesn't suggest far-left/far-right.  If you had a migration issue....saying deportation is necessary....it also doesn't suggest far-left/far-right.  

The German news media have played with the definition a good bit, and I'd say at this point....most folks can't conclude any definition worth talking about.

2.  Merz going away?

There are five state elections in 2027....most occur in April.  By the time you get to Niedersachsen in September....if the CDU has performed in a crappy fashion for the five....I might see some meeting where a discussion comes up (for both the SPD and CDU).....if the coalition can continue, or a fresh new election should occur.

2028 elections?  Presently....three coming (2 in the fall, one in the spring)....they will matter a good bit.

3.  The economy still problem one?

I'd go and suggest the economy and jobs rate as the top problem....with public safety and migration issues fitting into the top five issues facing the country.  Neither the SPD or CDU/CSU....seem to have any true fix for the economic issue.

4.  SPD overcome by the Greens?

That is a odd landscape....if you added up the Linke-SPD-Green voters....they make up around 38-to-40 percent of the nation presently.

5.  Is there crime-clan warfare going on in Germany?

Not on front-page news....but if you glance through newspapers weekly....various clans are in competition with each other, and hit-jobs are being conducted.  Police are more or less....simply watching the development unfold.

I asked AI to review data....how many crime families exist at the national level (across states).....total of 36 noted.

6.  Is there any indication that the CDU or SPD have reviewed the 'get-elected' strategy of the AfD Party?

Well....no.  If either had the 'get-elected' strategy in their mind....they would have overcome this voting trend.  

At some point....Merkel saw the gimmick, and countered AfD....by agreeing to hire 10,000 MORE state/federal police (over a 3 year period).  That briefly gave the SPD and CDU folks 'time'. It's been 7 years since that idea.