ARD (Public TV network, Channel One) did a fine article on this today, and covered the various topics left to ponder.
On the issue of health insurance and pension funds....the Greens have a long standing front supporting these as 'rights'. In the case of private health care insurance....the Greens want it ended and everyone on the public policy. The CDU/CSU and FDP position....no, it's not a right, and they will absolutely not build a system to dismantle the private health insurance option. Odds of settling this? Hard to predict.
More cops and better security in the country? Oh, that's not a problem with the Greens, FDP or CDU/CSU. They all support hiring more cops, and I expect in two years....they will all go to another round of hiring even more cops.
The internet? Data protection is a big deal with the Greens....much less so with the FDP and CDU/CSU folks. On this topic alone, there's probably a group of forty individuals involved and talking out the various details.
The EU? The CDU/CSU and Greens are hyped up and pro-EU. The FDP has this limited view of more regulations needed and aren't that favorable on the EU (note, I didn't say they are anti-EU).
Refugee limits? The CSU is firmly in belief of a limit to be written down. The FDP has said that a policy needs to be established and the Canadian-form of 'points' be used for future immigration. The Greens and the CDU basically want an open door. Odds of an agreement? Unknown.
Tax cuts? Oddly, the four all agree on some minor tax cuts for the working-class guy. Beyond that, they all want taxes to stay in place and in some cases on industry....increased.
The diesel business? ARD didn't hype that in the article, but the government (the CDU/CSU mostly) wants the diesel ban effort by Greens in urban areas to stop. The Greens want the diesel business settled but no one really explains how you can make this work.
The electric car business? FDP points out that if you really intend to be serious about all this mandatory banning of gas/diesel new car sales by 2030....you have to allow brown-coal electrical plants to fully operate....something that the Greens can't support.
There's likely a list of 150-odd topic....from NATO, to Erodan's Turkey, and onto relations with Putin's Russia. Education, innovation, autobahn work, the Bahn, Hamburg harbor traffic, and even public TV.....will all be discussed and form a problem in getting to a final agreement on a coalition.
In Hessen, there's been four years of a CDU-Green Party coalition. It was simple in detail....maybe fifty-odd topics (the Frankfurt Airport was one of the top issues). They settled things and have run a decent government. Most Hessens won't complain over the coalition. But that's a state-group of Greens....not the national leadership, and the focus was one simple state....not an entire nation.
I've giving this a 75-percent chance of completion, but major issues to survive four years intact. Every single month.....some unexpected chaos will occur and the Green coalition agreement will be under a threat.
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