That Lina E Story

 1.  Last night, both ARD/ZDF (the two public TV networks) ran their news and the very first item was the left-wing radical ('Lina E') who was convicted on assault charges (with three buddies) for five years/three months in prison.  It should be noted, the crew picked right-wing folks to assault, and with the pictures shown....it was a pretty harsh beating.

I should note for Lina E....she's been held for roughly 2.5 years already in custody and that time will count.....so if you count good behavior, she probably has 2 years remaining in prison.  

At the conclusion of everything....the judge then set her in a free stage (taking her passport, mandating limited movement) and can remain so, until judgement is finalized (could be three or four months).  Whether she shows up for jail?  Well....you assume so.  

Both ARD/ZDF tried to demonstrate this was a 'fair' situation because you have so many right-wingers arrested/charged-up....that you have to conduct a case like to prove you are 'fair'.  

I don't know if the typical German sees it that way.  If you look at the pictures of beat-up folks....just charge them as regular assaults, and don't get intimidated to think right-wing or left-wing.

So anyway....last night in Bremen, all hell broke loose with left-wing groups going after the local police.  Lesser show in Leipzig.

This keeping the public in the mindset that left-wing radicals exist as much as right-wingers?  More or less.  The news people did show a graphic that right-wingers are arrested more, and charged up more....something to the number of 5 to 1.  

My own personal view?  After viewing the picture of the assault damage (all guys)....I have this opinion that this Lina E gal is pretty violent and prone to serious violence. But I just seem to wonder....you'd have to put her into a jail situation where no right-wing ladies were staying or you'd have to expect some violent encounters.  

Q-and-A

 1.  What happens if Erdogan (President of Turkey) dies?

Turkish law says a new election must be held in 45 days.  The VP would stand in place for the 45 day period.  I should note, Turkish law is unique in saying that whoever runs for the office....has to have completed 'higher' learning.  

Why I bring this up?  Well.....Erdogan is fairly fragile in health.

2.  Why this effort in Germany to abolish retirement at age 63?

Well....a manpower shortage exists, and the gov't believes to fill the gap....getting you to work two to three more years would help.  

3.  Is the German gov't saying that lack of knowledge is preventing care for special people?

Believe it or not....the gov't says care-givers aren't that knowledgeable about gays, lesbians, trans, and intersex people.  Yeah, there's some kind of shortage for people in this trade....when you talk about handling them in a care-home.

4.  Is there a reading problem in Germany?

More or less....the gov't says one in four fourth-grade kids can't read at that level.  Blame?  They say the Covid-era did it.  Recovery from this?  Unknown.....it's something they've never encountered before.

5.  Berlin kids are highest level of vegetarians of any part of Germany?

Yeah, study done to say this.  47-percent of city kids say they eat little to no meat.

State with fewest kids who are vegetarian? Brandenburg. 26-percent.

EU Chatting Up On Beer Mandates?

 Well....this AM, it came out of nowhere.

The EU wants some changes that revolve around beer.

Change one?  The beer case would be limited to a size of 40-percent larger than the product itself.  That would mean the whole design of bottles and custons....would be affected in Germany.

Change two?  All current glass bottles would have to be changed....with a embossed emblem added, and a serial number. In the literal sense, billions of German beer bottles would be affected/destroyed

Change three?  If you examine change 1/2....then the whole deposit system used currently by beverage shops and grocery stores in Germany....would have be gutted/replaced.

Necessity being driven?  No one is really detailing this, and you almost get the impression it's being done to really screw over the German brewery landscape.

Odds of this passing?  I'd give it less than a 20-percent chance.

One almost gets the sense that glass bottles would have to go away, and beer in the future would only come in aluminum cans (if this were to pass).

This likely turning into a number topic within 24 hours in Germany?  Yeah, I'd suggest that.

Twelve German News Stories

 1. Regionally (around Frankfurt/Wiesbaden), the train/bus folks are talking about a 8-percent rise in regular tickets, which is a major rate change.  

Won't affect the 49-Euro ticket (yet), but will come up eventually.

Present 1-way ticket in Mainz/Wiesbaden area is 3.30 Euro for an adult.  A day-pass (all day travel) is 6.60 Euro within the 'zone'.

2.  Some analysis done here in the state of Hessen....lot of Germans are moving from urban centers....to towns of 5,000.  Rural aspects draw folks.

3.  Polling done by FORSA survey folks.....large majority of Germans say the criminal handling of Last Generation activists....is correct.

4.  On political trend polling, AfD is now at 17 percent.  Probably reaching a point where it worries 'center-left/center-right'.  

5.  Polling done on the draft heating act...mandating heat-pump installation in Germany.  Only 21-percent say it's right....76-percent say 'NO', they don't want it.

6.  Interior Minister says more controls/audits will be done at the Polish border....dedicating more of the national police to check passports.

7. Some national warning starting up....retirement homes are in serious financial jeopardy.....some probably will go bankrupt.  Likely to crank up some type of national emergency.

8.  German embassy operations in Russia....downsizing.  Some anticipation of 'trouble'.

9.  3,000 Russians so far in 2023 (mostly guys) have applied for German asylum.

10.  Court in Leipzig has wrapped up a criminal case of a left-wing group.  Decision will be announced mid-day today.  Case has been going on for several years.  Accused had significant assaults against right-wing protesters in 2018 to 2020.  

Some chatter suggests that the police are worried that several demonstrations will occur, and violence might erupt.

Prosecution was asking for a 8-year sentence for the leader (young lady, 28).  What is being openly discussed....Antifa across Europe will react, and police expect trouble.

11.  Interesting show from last night on Pro7 network about cannabis legalization in Germany, with Jenke von Wilmsdorff.  Title?  "Cannabis for everyone?".  Basic theme....is it a right to allow it.

After viewing it, I'll say that whatever the government 'thinks' will occur....will lead to more criminal involvement in the end.  

Zero doubt that legalization will happen by early spring 2024 in Germany.  What follows?  Probably a mess to clean up within three years.

12.  At present, for the 49-Euro deal for monthly Bahn (railway) travel.....10-million tickets have been activated.  I'd say folks are fairly positive about the cost factor and arrangement.

KFOR Chatter

 In recent days, KFOR has come up, and you might want to know the military organization.

At the end of the Balkans war period....NATO pieced together a unit to keep peace in Kosovo....roughly 3,000 folks.  

Peacekeeping operation, that has run for 23 years.

Around 30 countries, at various times have contributed to the force.

So in the past month or two....Serbs in Kosovo....have been on an aggressive trend.  In the past week....25 KFOR guys were injured in a street fight situation.

Ethnic troubles?  More or less.  

Size of Kosovo playing into this?  Alabama as an example is 12 times the size of Kosovo.....so you could have one single town go crazy, and create a national mess. 

The Lux-Hotel For Refugees Story

 This came out today via Focus.....up in North Rhineland Westphalia (far NW corner of Germany)....the refugee-handling folks have contracted out a hotel for approximately 620-odd refugees.

The odd point?  Well....it's a four-star hotel.  Monthly rate?  After you add it up....it's near 600,000 Euro a month on cost.

How they wiggle around the deal?  The gov't guys say that this is a temp-situation....where you get placed here for a week or two, then moved to what is a permanent situation.

Public sentiment?  It won't be that happy....once you say it's a four-star place.

Observations

 I sat at a picnic table this past weekend, with seven working-class Germans.  Main focus/topic?  Government mandates in motion for the heat-pump business.

Bluntly, all seven were negative about the way this is handled, very much anti-Green Party, and not in the belief that this will work in some coherent manner (if passed).

In one case, a couple is quickly moving to replace a 20-year old natural gas heating system....with a new natural gas system.  After careful review of options and cost....the heat pump 'fad' wasn't economically viable. 

This heat-pump deal making a negative point about the Green Party?  Well.....yeah, that's a big focus of each person at the table.  

Same trend nationally?  I'd make an assumption that somewhere in the range of 60-to-70 percent of people aren't pumped up about the mandate and the way that it's being handled.

If I were buying a house today in Germany (already built)?  I'd probably go natural gas, with some fireplace.

Pool Trouble

 For about 16 years, my wife and I lived in the Kaiserslautern region....in a small town next to Alsenborn.  What Alsenborn had...on the  plus-side....was a 5-star outdoor pool complex (with a big parking lot).

This morning, via the national news....the Alsenborn pool got into the headlines...oddly enough.

Over the weekend, with nice weather....a lot of folks were there, and in the midst of things....a group of five teenagers (we are led to believe all were young 'men' (juvenile boys).  Some disturbance came up, and some mother in her 30s....came up and gave the young lads a 'talking-to'.  It was the kind of thing you would you have expected in the 1990s, and nothing else would have developed.

In this case....around an hour later, as the mother left with her two kids.....the gang of five came up and confronted her outside of the pool area/complex, with one approaching her and slapping her on the face. 

More or less....by the way the news then discussed it.....the woman was a bit shocked, and seconds later....her husband came out of the pool area.  The gang of five took off when another person started calling the police.

Its the kind of behavior that you would not have seen twenty to thirty years ago, but it's a sign of the times that juveniles are demanding respect....in a negative way.

The cops?  They are looking for the five, and as large as the village is....not that big....it'll take a week or two but they probably will be identified and end up with a summons to appear at some police station. 

A sign of the times, I imagine. 

Five German News Stories

 1.  WELT piece this AM....talking about illegal migration from Belarus into the EU....with a large segment being Egyptian.  Apparently, it's a easy travel visa that can be used, and then ways are found to cross borders.

2.   Regional elections in Spain went 'south'.  PM has dismissed the parliament, and calls for new elections in July.  PSOE Party (left-of-center) probably won't be the lead party when results are presented.

3.  WELT piece.....newest BS job in Germany....diversity coaches for company image programs.  

4..  Around 40 KFOR troops in Kosovo were injured in riots....by what was described as pro-Serbian 'thugs'.  Lot of tension building up.

5.  Some kind of pro-Erdogan Turkish parade in Stuttgart led to negative feelings....with a couple of folks stabbed. 

How Germans View This 2024 US Election Process

 I'll offer eight opinions:

1.  CNN-International isn't offered any longer on the satellite delivery system.  I won't say it's drastically decreased opinion-flow.....but it's mostly limited Germans to public TV (ARD/ZDF), newspapers, the BBC, France-24, and Sky-News.  

2.  If you measured off mentions of Joe Biden for the past 2.5 years....it's drastically dropped off the charts since the fall of 2021.  You rarely see speeches of President Biden, and if his comments are covered....it's less than 20 seconds of chatter mentioned.  They know in some way that he's got memory issues.  

3.  Mention of VP Harris?  People know that she's the VP.....but beyond that....since January (2023)...there's rarely any mention of her on any German news piece.  'Invisible' might be a term I'd use.

4.  The 'age-thing'.  I'd say since late 2021....when German public forums have come up and US politics get discussed....the 'age-thing' is brought up a fair bit (affecting not only Biden, Trump, Pelosi, but five or six additional folks).  Germans criticize this idea and openly suggest that both US parties have a major problem in keeping people beyond their years. 

5.  I'd say that roughly 20-percent of Germans have no opinion and don't really care who it is.....preferring journalists and politicians center their efforts on fixing German problems.  Remaining 80-percent?  Mostly moderate-to-extreme anti-Trump.  DeSantis?  Some comments in 2023 indicates that he's run Florida into the ground and made it a 'shit-hole'.  Where they got this opinion?  Mostly from US journalists who told them of the shit-hole status.

(I should note that SF/Portland/Seattle/NY City shit-hole status is rarely mentioned)

6.  Getting back to a Clinton or Obama stage....where unicorns grazed openly, heat-waves never occurred, and the Kardashian fashion trend was the most important topic of the day?  More or less....that's the German wish....a return to 'normal'.

7.  Twitter figuring into a doom election scenario?  Yes....that Elon guy can only wreck a wonderful process that has existed for over 200 years.

8.  Finally, there is this odd worry that populism will occur, and trigger some serious German woes....people wanting similar change....that they can't have.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  ZDF (Channel 2, public TV) featured a documentary piece yesterday.....today's Bundeswehre (Army), and how recruitment goes.  Worth watching.

As much as a anti-military sentiment does exist in Germany (they actually talk to people about this feeling).....the military goes on with recruitment and finds people who want the experience.  

2.  All this hype over FC Bayern's championship win, and firing of the manager (Oliver Kahn) is building up.  I'd say there's a massive amount of anger building up within Kahn....he's not taking this in a pleasant way.

On soccer theatrics, I'd rate the present situation as a 'ten' (scale of 1-to-10). 

3.  Erdogan won the Sunday election in Turkey.

4.  There is some massive upgrade planned for the Bahn (railway folks)....amounting to 88-billion Euro.  Oddly, the Bahn folks will admit that the four-year plan has one problem....they currently only have half of the money.  Best not to talk about where they expect the rest of the money to come from.

5.  Some poll done....of Germans over 50 still working....one out of five want a change...either due to money or stress in the job.  

Three German News Stories

 1.  On Friday, there was this anticipation that BVB (Dortmund's soccer team) would win the top level position and FC Bayern would come in second.

Well....Saturday came....FC Bayern....won. 

So there is this odd crap that played out on TV....with the FC Bayern winning the champion position, then firing their team manager, and most people in Munich seeming disgusted (for a first-place finish).  

It's hard to figure this scene out.

2.  WELT went and finally covered the looting mess going on in America (first time it's been in the press).

3.  Political polling done this weekend.....AfD moves up to 18-percent on public trending.  Lot of this reflecting a disconnect between the coalition government and the general public.  

Food Chatter

 A German gov't paper is floating around, under the office of German Society for Nutrition (DGE). 

They are going to press that the right amount of meat for you to consume....is no more than 10 grams per day (to be healthy).

I asked my German wife for an estimate of this.  She paused and said it was basically one-quarter of a McDonalds regular hamburger patty.  She emphasized....it's not a Big-Mac sized patty....it's the thinny-thin patty.

Then she laid it out....between my typical breakfast, lunch and dinner.....I probably consume 200 to 250 grams of meat per day.  

I paused at this point....it'd basically take to the last possible step before becoming a vegetarian.  

Accepting this?  No...I'm probably the last guy who'd go this far.

The problem is....for the next five years....you will get constant reminders from public TV about how 10 grams is 'right', and you need to change your habits.  The propaganda will be dished out daily.

I can see some public TV cooking show....showing a paper-thin hamburger patty, and trying to convince you that this is all you need to consume....to be happy and healthy.  

Coalition Chatter

 Spiegel wrote up a piece for the AM today (Saturday) over the German gov't coalition (SPD, Green FDP).

Basically, it's in woeful shape and not getting positive numbers with the public.  I won't argue with that.

To build the coalition, with the SPD in the lead position after the election.....they had to agree to a number of watered-down points, and to build a coalition that marginally could be a consensus on most topics.

Hurting the SPD and Green party chances in state elections?  Yes, without any doubt.  

Bringing the coalition to a early closure, instead of the fall of 2025?  It's just awful rare for German governments to fail.  

I think in the end.....you will see various people come and go....as the coalition tries to find some way of resolving problems.  

Seven German News Stories

 1.  Curious twist on police raid of Last Generation activists this week.  Cops actually busted down doors in some of these situations.  Defense lawyers saying how is this possible, and pressing for bad behavior to be dumped on the police.

What the German police say?  Well....once you get identified as a criminal 'gang' (actually is the law that the prosecution folks used)...you don't get treated in a 'friendly' way.  Busting down doors in this scenario....is legal.  

I would guess that the seven folks that the various states are now focusing upon....haven't yet grasped the full impact of the legal code now being used.  They are at the same level as some Turkish or Russian mafia group.

2.  New Corona variant identified, and this story seems to be in a top ten news item.  

3.  German health care costs are going up.  If you make more than the average guy....your level of contribution is going up (could amount to several hundred Euro a month more).

4.  Former Foreign Minister Fischer (Greens) had a talk yesterday.....says that Russia's full intent is to bring the old Warsaw Pact situation back into reality.

5.  Just an odd trend.  Up to the end of 2022....there was a German E-car registration trend that looked super-positive for the last three or four years.  

At the end of April 2023....that upward trend no longer exists.  It's rather flat for purchases/registration.  

Gov't can't explain the turn of events.  I'd mostly say that everyone who had 'passion' for an E-car....has now got one.  

6.  Largest military air exercise in history of NATO will be held in June in Germany, with several air space areas closed off.  Warning already being given....delays in take-offs can be anticipated.

7.  WELT piece this AM....Bavaria is pushing for a big chunk of area to be declared a UNESCO World Heritage Site.  Group would be various castles in a particular region.

In the application process....communities have to vote to go along with the mandates that are part of the UNESCO rules.

Apparently, the folks in the region of Neuschwanstein are saying 'no'.

One curious part of this....once in the club....you are severely limited in changing things or upgrading things in the region around the castles in the group.  Even if everyone in your community said a new parking lot needed to be placed at x-location....by the UNESCO rules....a special committee of UNESCO folks would have review the action and might create various extra burdens in building a simple 100-car parking lot.  

What If You Don't Have Data?

 I read a short piece in WELT this AM....it appears that the German federal 'boss' in charge of the Anti-Discrimination Commission....doesn't have data to really invent new laws.  

There's been some public statement by the commission now.....that they want  German companies to 'inventory' (audit) their employees.....to find out how diverse they really are.

Sort of illegal....you say?  Well.....yeah....there's  already laws in place to forbid this type of database or collection of personal data.

It's sort of a funny position to be in....because you'd like to protect people over their diverse nature, but if you can't prove there's an issue.....you can't invent a law.

Where this effort or inventory was going?  It's not clear.

I would imagine they want your pronoun information.....your sexual preferences (maybe bondage or fantasy roleplay).....maybe your pay-scale. 

The problem I see here.....Germans have a public life and a private life.  Work is the public side.....with most not mixing/matching their situation.

If the commission can't develop a database?  Well....they can't invent problems out of thin air.  This will be curious to watch developments.  

It Is Kinda Funny

 The Chancellor (Scholz) came to Frankfurt yesterday (flying in).

At the conclusion of this visit to the ECB (downtown), the security detail (several vehicles) were taking the Chancellor back to the airport where he'd fly out.

Apparently, some guy (yet to be identified) figured out the Chancellor's entourage, and got himself into the tail-end of this group (in his own vehicle).  

So as the vehicles approached the security gate at the airport....they were just 'waved-in'.  The end-vehicle....not really part of the entourage....simply joined the group of vehicles, and were led out to the tarmac, where the plane sat.

Scholz exiting his car.....now had this non-entourage guy to walk up and give him a hug....before the security guys really realized what was going on.

There might have been some words spoken but no one says much over this 20-second 'moment'.

Cops?  Well...they arrested the guy.

Charges?  Entering a secure area like the airport will get you a charge.  Beyond that?  Hugging the Chancellor?  I don't think they have a law fitting that situation.  

Who was the guy?  Unknown.  Local media hasn't said much, and the public TV folks are avoiding his identification. 

When the court event comes up?  Well....it wouldn't surprise me if the guy got up and offered to hug the judge or his police-handlers.  They may need to send him off for a mental-eval.....over too much hugging.  

The Lack of Data Problem

 Weeks ago, when all this heat-pump chatter started up within the German government....the odd thing that I noticed right away....they didn't seem to have any data/facts....to argue their case or set about regulations.  

You could see it in interviews with journalists.

This week...a draft law is being discussed where a massive amount of data will have to be collected.

The cost of collecting the data?  Well...it's on the back of the state to hand down the instructions....but it's the cities, home owners, and the energy companies stuck with collecting this info.

The term 'sovereign task' comes up in today's news....it's an obligation to report this in some format.

If you violated any part of the data collection?  Fine of 10,000 Euro is possible.

The odds of public resistance now?  I'd say more than half of the public will say that this whole thing goes overboard.  

The German government will be all over your heat use....condition of the home....windows...furnace type, etc.

All of this to harm the Green Party vote in state elections?  I'd suggest it's a pretty poor position to lead into.  

Heat-Pump Chatter

 Probably one-third of evening public news episodes now in Germany....revolve around the heating law draft, and the lack of agreement in the coalition (SPD, Greens, FDP).  

If I were giving a idea of passage (as is, with no changes).....I'd say it's less than 20-percent now that it'll pass.  

Changes?

If this were such a super-thing to do...forcing everyone to heat-pumps and dumping oil/wood/natural gas....then dump the VAT tax deal to zero percent from today to 2030.  

If your house isn't that capable to benefit from the heat-pump deal....fine, offer up a 3,000 Euro credit for renovations that cost over 10,000 Euro.

Find some method to explain the noise problem....so that communities don't suddenly pass noise mandates/regulations.  

The odds that nothing will pass?  Last month, I would have said zero-percent chance.  Something would have to occur....was my frame of mind.  Today?  I'd say it's a 40-percent chance that the whole thing falls apart, and becomes a colossal mess for the Green Party to explain.  

I live on a block of houses that were all built in the 1960s.  All are in the 450,000 to 700,000 Euro range today. Out of forty homes in the block area....fewer than five have the extra insulation and would benefit from the heat-pump.  Convincing people to go and spend 12,000 to 16,000 Euro on upgrades to make the heat-pump addition (itself priced at 12,000 Euro)...is going to be a mess for any politician to engage upon.

Anyone's guess how this will turn out.

Law Stuff

 If you go back about a decade....we've had in my regional state of Hessen....a bit of trouble when emergency crews (police, fire or ambulance) are called out to where there are crowds.  

In simple talk....some pumped-up folks have been making trouble...threatening folks.  So the politicians finally stood up in the state this week and added some text to the law about attacking public safety folks.

Section 125 of the state criminal code had some added words....if you threatened or acted-out with the crews...you could be looking at six months of jail, with a fine.

Why the necessity?  I'd say alcohol-effect has played a role....along with casual drug-use.  I won't say it's a guy-thing, because women have played a role as well. Will the law change anything?  No....the booze-drug effect will continue, and some folks will find themselves waking up in jail, and being told several months in prison will be the likely outcome....of something they don't remember much of.

Hotel Pamphlet

 I stayed at a hotel on the edge of a forest in Bad Wildungen for the weekend.

Oddly enough, in the room....was a 'warning' pamphlet.  

Basically, don't approach raccoons, or attempt to feed them.

The local area is infested with them.  

I won't say that Germans are naïve.but they tend to see raccoons as friendly cat-like creatures.  

Four German News Stories: 25 May 2023

 1.  The Last Generation activists held a news conference yesterday.  It was roughly ten minutes of blunt criticism of the gov't conducting raids on the leadership, and a refusal to answer any questions by the journalists there.

I'd generally say they didn't seem to have expected this, and their 'focus' is probably pretty hyped-up at present.  

Jail-time?  It may be a full-year before you reach a court situation, but someone is probably going to do a minimum of 12 months of prison.

2.  Bear sighting in Bavaria over the weekend.

3.  Odd court development.  There was a murder/rape case run through the court system here in Germany around 40 years ago.....guy was acquitted.  

Well....some investigative details have come up, with new science....and the authorities want to bring the guy back for a second court episode.

Lot of negativity by lawyers,  with a challenge going on.....normally....once acquitted, you can't be brought back a second time.

4.  There was an official declaration of death issued for the Tengelmann grocery 'CEO' back in 2021.  In the opinion of most people.....he'd been missing from a ski-run but no body was ever found (2018).  

This week, some evidence has come up to say the guy is probably still alive, and the court is discussing reopening the death certificate business.  

Karl-Ervin Haub....interesting guy...born in Tacoma, Washington, and grew up mostly in Wiesbaden.  On the affair business suggested?  Most everyone agrees that he had something going on with some Russian gal...for several years.  

How The Last Generation Activists Fell Into a Misfortunate Situation

 There's a law in Germany that says for protests/marches.....you have to register and announce the situation to the local authorities (really to the police) and you sign a document stating it will start at this time, at this location, end here, and will not disrupt traffic flow, PERIOD.

From day one, the Last Generation activists have failed to act within that law.  The authorities in various states/cities?  They've kinda looked the other way.....sent the cops out to 'unstick' the activists from the glue situation, and set up court dates.  Judges?  They generally went down to a fine situation in the beginning....later adding 30 to 90 days of jail time.

As the group matured.....they set into motion....recruitment and money provisions for the fines and missed pay situation.  All of these efforts....are similar in nature to a crime syndicate.  So when the cops started the raids today....citing criminal code 129....they had legit reasons for the raids.  

These seven individuals they are aiming at?  There's going to be serious prosecutor discussions, and the 'head' might be looking at a couple of years.  Was she ready or prepared for this?  Unknown.  

The TV interview business?  This young gal's weekly appearances will halt immediately as her lawyers advise her to clean up the mess....to avoid serious jail-time.  

I'm guessing for the next couple of days....the organization will quiet down as they figure where things go now.

The foundations that funneled money into the 'pot'?  Well.....they probably will see a raid or two, and some of their leadership brought in to explain who approved of the money movement.  

My Description of a One-Dog Town in Germany

When you drive up to Marburg (central Hessen), and get about 12 km north of the town....you find yourself in a highly rural region.

You will pass village after village which consists of no-name gas stations, a local grill-imbis, and zero traffic lights....with maybe forty houses in the whole town.

Occasionally, you will pass a village which had a bank or a grocery store, and it's closed down now.  

In some of the valleys, if you were looking for 'bars' on your cellphone....there's nothing.

Some of the rural villages will have a tractor-supply shop....maybe a bakery....perhaps a few will have a soccer field, or a gasthaus/pub.  

Civilization?  By that, I mean a grocery-store?  It might be 20 to 30 km's down the road.  

Looking for a kino (theater) or bowling alley?  You might be driving 1.5 hours to reach one.

A lot of people imagine Hessen as a urbanized 'zone', but if you go 40 to 60 km's north of Frankfurt.....it's fairly rural.

Rather Funny (By German Standards)

 For non-Germans, a couple of years ago.....some German sued the gov't and said that the property tax formula (differing from old East Germany and West Germany) was 'wrong'.  The court sat there....for about a year, and eventually agreed....then told the Bundestag that it had to invent a new 'fair' property tax.

Well....they invented it, and handed it to the sixteen states work around.

It was a fairly complicated database that required you to 'fill', and probably a quarter of the nation failed to input the data on time.

But in recent weeks, it's now brought up about this EU mandate about renovating your home, and the heat-pump situation that the Green Party is pushing....has actually decreased the values of homes.  

If you wanted to sell your property presently....whatever value it held a year ago....is diminished (no one is citing a number but I would imagine you probably lost 10-percent of value).

Setting public attention on this property tax business?  Yeah.  

Act II?

 

I sat and read through this UK news piece in the AM.  Basically, the WHO 'boss' is laying out that Covid version 2.0 will eventually arrive.

I've tried to contemplate how Germans would react on a second-run.

Personally, we are at the level where half the country are fairly skeptical and I'd suggest that these folks...for at least a decade....just won't be willing to play out the games and mandates again.

Quarantines, curfews, vax hostilities?  No....it just won't sell as they were packaged for the past occasion.

Just when the educational folks assemble and openly admit that kids are a full-year behind, and heading off to university situations....lesser prepared than at any point in the past fifty years....you simply shake your head.

Raids This AM

 German federal 'raids' took place this AM....several states....15 locations.  Topic?  Well....Last Generation activists.

There is a accusation now involving German criminal code 129 (forming up a criminal 'gang'/unit).  

What the authorities are saying....around seven folks are at the center of this investigation.

What 129 says?  If you are forming up or recruiting for what is perceived as a criminal group....it's a max of three years of prison.

129 also states that if you realize the criminal  nature of your effort, then 'come clean' and regret things....the court can see this as a positive, and not be harsh on the poor guy/gal.

What's curious here.....no  mention of criminal code 130, which says that if you were inciting the masses....that could be leading to time in prison as well.  

What's likely to happen?  Among these seven people being reviewed....someone will be noted as the 'boss' or 'leader', and I suspect they will be the one taken to the more harsh sentence (full three years), and the rest get some offering of just 'walk-away', with no punishment....if the movement just halts.   

These people being stupid enough not to accept the offer?  Well....yeah, that is possible.  

The other issue which no news service offers....there's money involved, and it came from some likely foundation.  I'm guessing that it was illegally funneled over to the activists, and they probably haven't admitted the amount.  That foundation to be in trouble?  At the very least....they will be asked to come up and visit a prosecutor to explain certain details. 

Shocker?  I think a number of the Last Generation players are standing there and asking questions now.  

Six German News Stories

 1.  There is a new draft bill going around in the Bundestag.  Basically, Habeck (the Economics Minister) is admitting that nationally....the federal government does not have a collection of data to handle the heating subject. 

So the bill says in present form.....German states (16 of them) must go and collect data from residents....on house age, insulation, type of current heat, etc.

The bill form?  Well.....89 pages.  Just to read it would require sixty to ninety minutes.  

Expectation?  You the consumer would have to admit (legally in some form) your kilowatt hour use (for 3 years).

Where the mess would end up?  There is some intention that all fossil fuel use would end by 2045.  Odds of this realistically happening?  Man, even if you said this was 20 years away.....I just can't see the mandate working in this manner.

2.  German polling for the Green Party?  Massive slip in past six months....roughly 40-percent down.

3.  The chief 'spy' boss of Germany says that Russia is out on some mission to hype-up folks to be negative about the direction of the German government.

I won't necessarily disagree with this, but the coalition government has picked topics to 'carry'.....while in a recession, and consumers are not that happy.  

4.  New poll says 50-percent of Germans want Habeck (Green Party), head of the Economics Ministry....gone.  Not that it really matters, but it's probably forcing the party to have a harsh discussion.

5.  The Sunday night public forum show....'Anne Will' will end at the end of 2023.  New public forum 'boss'?  Yes, from ARD late news....Karen Miosga.   

6.  This 'freedom of Russia' legion?  Well....over the past couple of days....fifty-odd Russians set off as a invasion force of Russia (yeah, not the Ukraine) went approximately seven miles into Russia.  

I don't think the Russians were expecting this, and the 'push-back' took about 24 hours (doesn't appear any of the invasion force survived.  

This Thing About Champaign For Breakfast?

 I spent a couple of days at a 4-plus star hotel here in Germany, and sat fairly near the beverage area each day.  They offered Champaign.  

I'm not one that drinks Champaign much....except for special occasions, and mostly late-afternoon or evening.

I sat and observed each morning....the only folks coming up to fill the glasses? It was about 95-percent women, and mostly women over the age 60.  

This makes me wonder about the breakfast/Champaign thing....if it's always been this tendency.  

New Target For Last Generation Activists?

 Well....someone from the protest group....Last Generation....stepped up and said that the bigger and new target....were the 'rich/elite'.  

I read through the 'talk' and asked my German wife to define 'rich', and she indicated that we didn't fall into this category, but she left it open on who exactly would fit into this target group.

The logic of this new target?  I suspect in the minds of the protest group.....regular working-class Germans hate rich Germans, and it'd be fine with them, if the Last Generation went and picked  on the rich crowd.

How one would arrive at this logic?  Unknown.

Bad Wildungen/Edertal

 I spent a long weekend (3 days) up in northern Hessen....in the Edertal/Bad Wildungen region.  

Edertal is where the famous German dam was located in 1943....blown up by the British, and has been re-constructed.  

Bad Wildungen?  It's an odd spa/wellness town from the 1800s.  After WW II, it became a 'kur' town for a while and today has a major medical recovery facility.  

I ended up at a hotel which was mostly designed as a 'for senior citizens' operation. You punch a button for the elevator, and it takes twice as long for it to arrive.  You step in, and the door stayed open for a full 90 seconds before it closed.

If you wanted a full-up weekend, with quiet/safe surroundings....I'd advocate the area for a visit.  

What Happens When the AfD Party Reaches 20-Percent?

 This weekend, polling indicates nationally in Germany....that the AfD Party is polling around 17-percent.  

The Alternative For Deutschland Party started out as an anti-Euro party....it was their only real position, and oddly enough....probably five to eight percent of the German public found agreement with this one-issue party.  

Around three years into existence, with 2014's massive migration episode developing in Germany....a group arrived at a party meeting, and maneuvered the party to have a second position/topic....anti-migrant/anti-immigrant.  In a matter of roughly two hours....the party had been taken over, and the original crew were dismissed (fairly angry at how this was arranged).

AfD then became this hard negative point in German politics.  All of the other parties took a position against them....suggesting that they needed to be monitored or be put under surveillance. 

In some ways, they are a ongoing comedy act....with around 50-percent of the power-players going into some Mussolini-type act when speaking on topics.

Up until 2020....they stayed a one-or-two topic political party.  Under Covid?  They were anti-mandate, which got more attention across Germany.

Since the fall 2021 election?  I'd say that the SPD-Green-FDP coalition has drawn a fair number of criticisms....with AfD continuing to get attention, and gaining in the polls.

What happens at the 20-percent point (I'm predicting this by the end of 2023)?  I suspect that SPD folks start to worry about state elections and the approaching fall 2025 election (not that far away).  

If you think building a coalition government is difficult now....go try to imagine the AfD in second place and having something in the 22-point range.  The CDU/CSU folks might win, but trying to walk into coalition talks with the SPD and Greens as your partner?  You'd downsize your goals, and provide more criticism from the general public.

A lot of this poll maneuvering....due to inflation, mandate-chatter, and poor optics from the current government?  Well....yeah.

But trying to grasp this, and resolving problems in a simplistic way....isn't likely to happen.  

Four German News Stories

 1.  Remember all that hype from last week over the high-ranking Economics Ministry guy....Graichen?  The guy that resigned from the government in the past week?

Well....this weekend, someone went to observe his thesis from the University of Heidelberg (probably going back to late-1980s).  Accusations of plagiarism now come up.  The folks suggesting this....say around 30 sources were not identified.  

What'll happen?  Investigation (figure six months) and then one of three things....totally innocent, guilt but gets to keep the degree (just can't call himself a 'doctor', or total guilt (losing the degree entirely).  

Yeah, it's pretty odd, and one of those three reasons I'd advise people not to go after a masters degree or PhD...if you were a German (your degree is on file and can be reviewed by anyone, at any time). 

2.  ZEIT says on political polling....the AfD Party is now at 17-percent.  Basically taking up points from all of the parties.  

3.  This draft law on heating for all new buildings?  Eliminates wood pellets, natural gas, oil, and wood (fireplaces).  It's going to draw a lot of negative attention.  

4.  LIDL, the discount grocery chain in Germany....is having a negative period with various companies....over new pricing sought by the manufacturing community.  They've blocked various well-known brands because they think the pricing has escalated without solid reasons.  Odd tactic, but they are finding replacement companies, and still drawing consumers.  

Citizenship Chatter

 About a decade ago....the German government got to talking about a easier process of bringing 'new' folks in and making them citizeeens.  This week, the SPD Party introduced the draft.

For those who didn't know 72.4-million residents of the country are German.  The other 10.7-million are non-Germans (like me).

The general process?  They intend to make it easier....downsizing the residence time from eight years...to at least five, and possibly even tree years.

How many of the 10.7 million have been in Germany more than 10-years, and clearly not showing an interest in getting citizenship?  Well.....roughly half of the 10.7-million.

Are a lot of these people just interested in the visa/work permit, and less so....about citizenship?  I brought this up with a Ghanaian guy back around 2018.  His big thing was just a residence permit, and license....he figured by age forty....he'd have saved enough to return to Ghana to open a business on his own.

Americans in this situation?  The last time I checked.....Germany said (2021) that it was in the 300,000 range.....without counting military folks and government-service folks.  The vast majority of them?  I don't think the citizenship thing is of interest.  

Four German News Stories

 1.  Focus had a piece this AM talking about heat-pumps.  So this German lady from Passau (heart of Bavaria) had gone to the new technology, and installed the heat-pump at her house.  

Seven weeks had passed since day one....she checked her electric meter.  Cost at the seven week point?  What she would have traditionally had for one entire year.  

I would imagine the technicians set the system to run on a continual basis....but so far, there's not been a true audit.  What the story does lead to....inadequate insulation suggestion for the gal's house.  If you had an average insulation situation (like 90-percent of German homes)....the heat-pump isn't the perfect solution for heat/cooling. 

This will end up drawing attention and making the mandate for the heat-pump a question-mark.

2.  Some new 'trick' used for the Last Generation activists yesterday.  After the protest group had gotten vehicles stopped....they applied glue to their hands, and then climbed underneath a SUV.....attaching the glue hand to the driveshaft.  'Lift' vehicle was required at that point to allow access to the police to remove the hand.

3.  Interesting twist to the Turkish election (comes this weekend)....the anti-Erdogan candidate has come out and said he wants all refugees in Turkey to pack up and return home.  Attracting ultra-right crowd.

4.  Finally, there's rumors of other problem newly hired people within the Economics Ministry (run by the Green Party).  May be BS, but journalists are looking over the stories. 

This Whole Plan To Kidnap The German Health Minister? A Farce?

 Well....last year when this German coup-group came up and their key plan was to kidnap the German Health Minister (Lauterbach, SPD).....I thought originally this was just a BS comedy show joke.

No, these individuals, with coup in their heart....had attached themselves to Lauterbach being kidnapped. 

Lauterbach without a security detail?  No....all of the cabinet folks would have at least a driver and a guard.  I don't think either would have allowed Lauterbach to be taken, without some kind of shootout.

Why Lauterbach?  On image, at the time....Lauterbach probably had more negative criticism than any other cabinet member....mostly over the Covid mandates.

Current view of the chatter?  I'd say a majority of Germans are just in disbelief over the suggestion of kidnapping idea of Lauterbach.  

On this charge of planning a kidnapping, it'd appear from the criminal code  that you'd be talking about five years of prison.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  Interesting piece off Focus this AM over Plauen (state of Saxony, about halfway between Dresden and Frankfurt).....about 65,000 residents.  For about a year, in the mid-town area....a number of violent acts which lead back to non-Germans (mostly young men).

Level of violence escalating in the past couple of weeks.  Now leading to locals having a fear of movement in the downtown area.  If you read through things....appears to be a small group of 'misfits' who are making negative attention.  

2.  Whole lot of business news chatter within VW about job cuts coming....downsizing.  

3.  Minister of Economics Habeck....has let go of his deputy....Graichen (I talked over this issue in yesterday's blog).  Interesting sideshow now to develop....the heat-pump draft law is up for discussion, and Graichen wrote a good portion of this.  Whole lot of negativity brewing over the law, as is......so one might suspect that the mandated nature of this might disappear.  Personally, it'd make more sense to offer a five-year period of zero VAT (no taxation) for the heat-pump installation to entice people into installing it.  

4.  CDU/CSU is openly calling for an end to the revolving door between the government and think-tanks.  A lot of this leads back to the Green Party, but all four of the big parties are doing this at the national level.  One might suspect it occurs even at the state-level.

5.  Court case opened yesterday in Koblenz....against those five accused of coup planning.

Three stages were discussed as they opened the case. The group had planned on a massive nation-wide power-failure (taking down  the grid), then kidnapping the Health Minister (Lauterbach), and finally a take-over of the Berlin gov't would occur.

Oddly enough, in this final stage, they had a person who resembled Chancellor Scholz in mind....to fake-out the public and convince them of a peaceful movement to the new gov't.  

Lot of attention focused on the case....probably eight minutes of the late news last night covered this.  

The one female accused?  A former school teacher....75 years old....had to be carried into the court.  Physically, I'd say she's in pretty weak condition.  I'd take a humble guess she doesn't weigh more than 90 pounds.  

From this core group of five, if convicted on all charges?  Probably a minimum of 20 years.  

I'll add this last comment.....I seriously doubt that the case ends in 2023.  This will likely be a fairly long episode, and this former school teacher....I have my doubts that she's around (alive) at the end.  

On guilt?  It's just an amazing amount of belief that they could carry out a coup against the German government, and their absolute belief that people would form up with the 'recovered' monarchy government....invented out of thin air.  I would make a humble observation that fewer than 2-percent of the public might be open to this 'invention' or coup.  

This to be made into a movie one day?  Somewhere down the line (probably in ten years)....someone will try to explain this story, but it'll come out as a comedy, instead of a drama.  

What Was the Ahr Valley Flood About?

 If you draw a line between Koblenz and Aachen, Germany....this valley lies near the middle, and the Ahr River runs through it.  The Ahr, for the record, feeds the Rhine.  Most of the 'river' is about 50 to 100 feet across.  In normal flood conditions....it might stretch another hundred feet on each side.

On 14 July 2021....weather forecasters gave an updated warning and said a significant front was moving in....in roughly 12 hours.  

Up until that point, it'd been a pretty crappy drought, and the region hadn't seen much rain in five or six months.  

Most of the towns and villages along this region that the forecast was given to....are built within 300 feet of the 'stream'.  In their minds, there was 'raised' levels, and flood levels, but nothing to an extreme.

Enough of a warning?  Most everyone in the region argues about this.  

What came was a very slow-moving intense front....dumping a ton of rain on a drought area....with hills nearby which could not absorb the rain coming down.  In the landscape beyond the hills....same story....dry soil, and run-off being a major problem....to the hills, and the only exit is the Ahr River.  

In a matter of roughly twenty minutes, the stream was now at a all-time flood stage.  At the one-hour point, total destruction of the villages were underway.  

Dead in the end?  189.

In terms of a wiped-out scale?  1-to-10?  It's pretty much a '10'.  This included infrastructure (sewage, drainage, electrical, gas, bridges, roads, etc) and homes/businesses.  

It'll one of those event which will take an entire generation for locals to get over. 

Blame?  This is the odd aspect because you can't really center the blame on the weather folks, the local emergency folks, the politicians, the local building authority, or anyone in particular.  When it does come up in chatter on TV....it's usually dumped on the 'plate' of climate change/global warming.  It's to the degree that one might suspect locals don't believe the story anymore.

This Closed On Sundays 'Rule'

 It's a pretty ironclad rule in Germany.....stores are not supposed to be open on Sundays.  About the only exceptions are gas stations, cafes, and a rare (maybe twice a year) store-opening (mostly furniture shops).  

There's a court case brewing where a grocery store has sued the state and says that this one mall operation.....next to an airport...ought to be allowed an exception.

The airport?  Well....Zweibrucken.  The operation?  It's a outlet mall....distance of about 1.5 miles from the old US base.  To be kind of honest here....if you were asking about the flights going out each day?  Well...at best it's 3 to 5, and mostly all related to vacation sites (Spain, Turkey, Greece).  

What'll likely happen with the court challenge?  There's going to be a review of the state law and how it's applied.  Frankly, I doubt that the court wants to open up this discussion.  

I will admit this...having been on trips years ago where we arrived back in Germany around noon on a Sunday....after two weeks of vacation....there's literally nothing in the house to eat, and you have to resort to eating out on Sundays.  

The outlet mall having any grocery operation?  I've been to this outlet mall twice.  Other than a pizza shop and coffee shop....there's nothing related to grocery operations there.  It's mostly a outlet mall for t-shirts, jeans, fashionwear, shoes, etc.  

What Is This Habeck/Graichen 'Scandal' in Germany About?

 Rater than tell the 12-page summary, I'll to tell this in 30 lines.

Habeck is the Green Party individual who is the vice-Chancellor and Economics Minister of Germany (since the election in the fall of 2021).  

Habeck early on (December 2021) went out and hired a guy by the name of Patrick Graichen.  What we can say, for a fact, prior to December 2021.....Graichen had been the boss/director of a environmentalist think-tank/lobbyist group...for around 7 years.   Looking at his background....he's probably very qualified for the work required.

The position hired for?  Well...civil servant status....State Secretary in the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection.

No one would really say much for the hiring....except this one odd item.....Graichen was the 'best-man' for a top-level Green Party guy (Michael Kellner).  

The suggestion here (whether true or half-true or false) is that the status as best-man played some role in getting the 'big' job within the Ministry.  I would imagine if Graichen had known where things were going....he would have declined the 'best-man' appointment at the wedding.  

Did Habeck know about the best-man business before picking the guy?  Most of what you see is 'no'.....but it's a tight circle with these Green Party guys, and there's probably over 300 of the top level of the Green Party that knew Graichen in some fashion but the vast majority probably didn't know of the wedding/best-man thing.

A four-star scandal?  Well....I'd rank it two-star mostly.  It's not that Graichen is some cousin of Habeck, or is a complete idiot.  It's just that this guy served as a 'best-man' at some guy's wedding and in the selection process....he just left some things out.  

This hurting the Green Party in regional/state elections?  OH....well.....yeah, this probably takes 3 or 4 points off the Green Party level....giving them back to the SPD folks.  I won't argue that point.

To be honest, after a dozen years of Merkel-management and marginal chaos/scandal.....this is pretty much all they can generate at present.  

The Nun Story and Mass Hysteria

 I was sitting and reading through a German historical piece yesterday, which was recorded/written in the 1780s in Germany.  

The topic?  This was a historical writing....going back to the 1500s of Germany, and laid out this unusual story.

At some point....a Catholic Church nun....had undergone some type of mental breakdown, or hallucination....causing her to bite co-worker nuns.  

The chief problem with this hysteria story....it doesn't state the location where it started, or how biting came up as a 'fix-it' to the problem.  

The story simply started out, and became local gossip.  Then regional gossip.  And I would assume over a year or two....national gossip.

The problem here....even among other Catholic Church nun establishments.....blame and bullying started up, and more acts of biting were recorded.  At some point, it even crossed over into the Netherlands and became a 'fad' there.

How the fad ended?  No one really states a conclusion to this trend of crazy nuns biting people.

I doubt if they passed a law to forbid biting.  It might have been the case where enough biting nuns were beaten enough.....to realize it's not that great of a fad.  It's possible that the Pope just put out a standing....'God forbids biting' and people accepted that.

The thing here is.....we need hysteria to occasionally occur....to reset our public perception of things, and to entertain society about nutty behavior.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  Court case starts in Koblenz today....over five guys who attempted a coup in Germany (2022).  They actually were planning power-shutdowns and replacement of the Berlin leadership.

2.  Some study was done....showing roughly one out of four German kids at the 4th grade level....can't read at that level (aren't even taking into account Covid issues).

3.  Some German research team assembled a study on police and violence....had over 3,000 participants.....pretty wide view on the police use of violence.

I will just offer this advice.....if you are in a public situation, and police make a request to refrain or conduct yourself in some manner....if you can't comply....what comes next is on your fault.  

4. Next couple of weeks.....the new heat-pump law will be openly debated in the Bundestag.  Selling this to the public might be biggest issue.  

5.  Warning given in Germany this AM....orange juice prices likely to soar....poor crop delivery.  Some suggestion of 25-percent rise.  

Three Observations

1.  2023, from Feb on....at least in my district of the Rhine Valley....has been the most unusual weather pattern of the past 20-odd years.  In an average year, there's supposed to be in the range of 29 inches of rain a year (with July and August making up 40-percent of rainfall).  

Presently, I'd say we will hit the 29 inch level already by July of this year.  It's the 'greenish' I've seen things.  On temperatures?  Nothing has exceeded 23 C (for me locally) so far (74 F). 

Some chatter started yesterday, with the weather guys saying for the end of next week....at some locations in Germany, it'll finally hit 30 C (86 F).  

Ruining the climate change agenda chatter?  Well....there were roughly five years of summer drought, and hard rains on a couple of occasions....which helped the climate change chatter.  With these light rains and sprinklings?  It's dampening the ground enough that as any serious rain comes down....the ground absorbs the bulk, instead of run-off situations.

2.  Focus went out and wrote up a good long piece (worth reading)....talking about the rumors of E-cars catching on fire more often....than gas/diesel cars.

Swedish group did the investigation....out of 3,400-odd car fires there.  E-cars only made up 23 of the vehicle fires.  The rest were all gas/diesel situations.

So it is mostly all BS....when people say larger number of E-cars burn.  

3.  Turks are going back to vote in the national election....starting this Saturday.  Lot of hype in Germany going on about this Erdogan business.  Probably five minutes minimum nightly now on German TV....discussing the whole thing.

The 'Brand' Rant

 If you were a Brit, or German, or Italian....and were watching all the US news....would it make sense to venture to the US for a vacation?

Think about the brand on display.

White supremacists now proclaimed THE top-level US national threat.

Neo-Nazis everywhere and nowhere.

BLM protests and riots in major urban centers.

Snatch and go crimes at epidemic proportions in SF and NY City.

White guys rushing to choke-hold blacks left and right.

Police murdering 'innocent' black men.  Even black police murdering black men.

A massive number of mentally unstable people roaming the land.

Pronoun people wanting to engage upon you anywhere and everywhere.

News treated like propaganda....on a hour-by-hour basis.

People rushing around to claim 'victim' status....fragility is at a all-time high, and irrationality seems to be enough to be an actual real-true victim....at least in the US.

Political agendas treated like a cult-event.

Looters and rioters treated like kids in a candy shop.....released in matter of an hour or two, without bail.

Homeless situation in Portland, Seattle, NY City, SF and LA....has turned these once tourist-magnets into a 'zoo-operation'.

So if you were this typical German who visits the US once every eight to ten years, looking at the mess now created....just how eager would you be to waste 6,000 Euro on a big trip to the US?

It's even reached the point where Americans want to almost brag about their 'crappy' situation.  If Russia wasn't engaged in all this war business with the Ukraine....they'd probably have the position to advertise nightly and just say we (Russia) aren't the US, and you can feel safe in Russia on a vacation (it's BS, but this is how far the US-negativity campaign has gone).

Three German News Stories

 1.  Apparently, the Last Generation activists in Berlin, have gone to a new tactic.  They've gone to car rentals, using them on a autobahn area (A100) to slow vehicle traffic down and once stopped....they hop out and glue themselves to the car.  

Car rental companies happy?  I would imagine that the lease obligation will be updated and use in protests will be a heavy fee situation....plus, there's glue damage. 

2.  The candy industry in Germany is threatening a strike....wanting pay improved (minimum of 500 Euro more on pay a moth).  Strike would occur in June.  

Supply situation?  One can only guess that there is enough in the warehouse system to cover two months.  

The question is....how willing is the industry to bump up pay this much.  Also you have to wonder....once they do this....what's the upgrade on cost?  Twenty-percent?

3.  Lot of 'hand-washing' and chatter over the total loss of Germany in the European Song Competition (from the weekend).  

To be honest, I think more than half the nation doesn't care.  

What Does a 'NO-GO' Area in Germany Really Mean?

 This is from an American who has traveled around a good of rural and urbanized Germany over 30 years.  It's not from the police, politicians or news media types.

First, lets just define a NO-GO area as a place where you probably aren't 100-percent safe, and it's for a variety of reasons.

This could be a 'junkie-zone' like the one that exists in the Bahnhof (train-station) zone of Frankfurt, or the city park on the east side of Berlin, or on the eastern end of the Hamburg train station.  

It could be because of the potential for thefts or assaults....like the Bahnhof Strasse area of Wiesbaden, after 10 PM. You could go and walk this zone at 11 PM a thousand times, and 999 occasions....nothing happens.  

Second, let's be clear that in most towns of 50,000 or less....you just aren't going to find anything related to NO-GO areas.  It's mostly a metro-or-urbanized thing.

Third, as much as the police know there are issues....you can't invent some legal method to do mass intervention, unless you add a curfew, and Germans really aren't into curfew action.  Covid demonstrated that negativity.  

Fourth and final, to be honest, there's just not anything tourist-related that comes up near a NO-GO area.  If you were into German historical stuff, or culture-magnets....with the map drawn of the area....you'd likely find no woes or threats in your path.  

Yeah, it's one-percent of one-percent of the country that I'd be referring to.  

Three German News Stories: 15 May 2023

 1.  Turkey election?  No one cleared 50-percent (out of three key candidates).  So a run-off.  How close?  Erdogan at present appears to have 49.50 percent.  Third-place  runner out (5.3-percent)?  Yes.  

So if you do the numbers, with the third-place folks voting again.....voting for the 2nd place guy....the election would tilt away from Erdogan....assuming all the voters come back a second time. 

2. Some people talking about the dismal showing of the Green Party in the Bremen-state election (over the weekend).  Blame-game?  Mostly settles on the Economics Minister, with heating and anti-car  chatter.  Likely to be same issue in Bavaria later in the year for that state election.

3.  Chatter from the German Health Minister on the next big hype?  Well....at the conference over the weekend....Lauterbach said 'Long-Covid' will be the next thing to 'attack'.  

How This Bremen State Election Went Today?

 Clear win for SPD (29.5-percent), and Greens fell backward (12.5-percent).

2nd place?  CDU at 25.5-percent.

Far right wing BIW?  10.5-percent.  Far left Linke?  10.5-percent.  FDP at 5.5-percent.  

I suspect the Greens had hoped six months ago to take near 20-percent and that just didn't happen.  

Five Opinions About the Ukraine-Russia War

 1.  A lot of this failure on the Russian side, if you really sit down and look over battles, video, and descriptions....goes back to poor training and just throwing marginally-capable guys at a situation (much similar to WW II tactics), and figuring that the tank situation would be a 'catapult' to victories.  

2.  How I now believe the end will come?  I think that the Wagner Group (led by Prigozhen) will start to engage upon the Russian military, and some type of weird civil conflict will start up.....triggering Russian troops on the field in Ukraine to leave and return to Russian territory.  Wouldn't even shock me if this civil conflict lasted six to eight weeks....with Putin in some bunker halfway to Siberia, and trying to figure who is fighting who.

3.  Rebuilding Russia's structure (helicopters, artillery, APCs, tanks)?   You'd be looking at a level of cost where all normal infrastructure  (bridges, streets, government buildings) will be zeroed out for a minimum of ten years....maybe even twenty.  The country itself will be left in a dilapidated state of existence, and the smart guys simply exiting the country for better opportunities. 

4.  I think the vast number of Russians who watch the nightly news discussions via state TV....do honestly believe Nazis in the Ukraine are the real issue here.  

5.  Natural gas service to Germany being restored?  In this generation (from now to 20 years)?  No.  Eventually, some type of pipeline service will occur and Germans will accept 'some' sales.  It'll never go back to the level before 2022.  

Just Weird

 This past week....Wednesday (3 AM)....local cops in Wiesbaden noticed some young kid walking the streets....in disorientated state.

So they stopped her and asked questions.  She identified herself (no ID of course), and stated her age (10 years old).

What the girl ended up saying is that she'd left home to become a YouTuber (an influencer). 

Cops got the home address out of her, and then drove her to the address.

Parents?  Well....kinda shocked at a doorbell ring at 3 AM.  They are also a bit shocked that the girl had sneaked out and left.

Examination of her room?  Here's the note.....she was leaving for the big-world, and wanted them not to worry about success/failure.

Cops?  They just hand her over, and give the parents a lecture on responsibility.

I am reminded of a American co-worker (military guy married to a German).....who had weird in-laws in Berlin.  At some point in the late 1990s.....his in-laws had their 12-year-old kid run away and join some local circus.  Took the family and cops two or three days to figure out what happened, and where the kid was.

Some of these German kids impress me....bold, no logic, just going where life takes you.  

This local YouTuber gal?  She probably needs a month of 'grounding', if you ask me.....you shouldn't ought to leave home until age 12.  

Six German News Stories

 1.  European Song Contest occurred last night (NO, I didn't watch it....watched the highlight clips this AM).  Germany as usual, came up with zero points. Sweden was the winner.  

I will recommend....via YouTube, you should look up Croatia's ESC 'band', and watch it.  Weirdest stuff I've seen in twenty years.  

2.  Focus had a piece this AM....talking about gov't regulations being created....to cripple the use of fireplaces, on the account of 'dust'.  Environmentalists leading this.  Bringing more people to oppose the Green Party in elections.

3.  Chatter from across the border in Denmark.....they will now consider new nuclear energy plants.  

4.  Election in Turkey today.....anyone's guess who will win.  I think even some of the pro-Erdogan folks think it's time for him to move on (retire). 

5.  That big train strike planned for Monday?  Averted.....deal accepted.

6.  Lukashenko of Belorussia (PM).....is in the hospital after his visit to Moscow.  Gut pains of some type.  Just a wild guess....gallbladder.  Some folks in Belorussia might suspect that he was poisoned.   

My 12 Bits Of Advice For Non-Germans In Driving Around Germany

 1.  If you've never really driven much at 160 kph (99 mph).....you might want to restrict yourself for a while.  

2.  Needing a toilet break along the autobahn?  Stick with the autobahn gas stations....avoiding the park-type with the stand-alone toilet facility.  The days of the 1980s when the park-type rest stops had sanitary toilets are lone-gone.

3.  If there is one single 'hint' on German weather of bad conditions by 3 PM....exercise judgement and restrict yourself to home by 2 PM.

4.  Staus come in three patterns: moving slow at 8 kph, stop-and-go traffic for 10 kilometers (taking 30 minutes), and dead-horse speed (meaning you get stopped for a minimum of 30 minutes).  My advice in the 2nd and 3rd case....get off the autobahn and find a alternate route, or retardant to chill out.  

5.  In severe winter weather....carry an appropriate jacket in the car....expecting the worst possible scenario.

6.  For any trip longer than five hours....plan on a massive hour-long rest stop.

7.  Saturday in June, July and August....between 9 AM and 3 PM....is the worst possible time to be on the autobahn because of heavy traffic.

8. If you extensively use GPS for everything....be mindful that some autobahns (handful) in Germany will just plain 'end' in the midst of some massive urban zone, and leave you lost trying to exit the city on the other end. 

9.  The best places along the autobahn structure to eat lunch or dinner....are 'resthof' operations.  These can be found via google and are typically 2 km off the autobahn.  For the price and quality, it can't be beat.  The other places....the gas-station operation restaurants on the autobahn....mostly a rip-off and poor quality food. 

10.  In construction zones.....always stay in the far-right lane....to avoid stress.  

11.  Blitz cameras do get placed on certain autobahns...particularly in Bavaria.

12.  In extreme heat, German autobahn pavement can 'pop-off'.....meaning you might control your speed on hot July afternoons (at 40 C).  

Three German Notes

 First, from that Mercedes factory shooting that I discussed yesterday.....the police now say it was illegally acquired (the guy had no license apparently).  How he got it?  It'll be discussed but I'm guessing the black market.

Second, some war analyst for WELT has done a 'talk' and says once this Ukrainian offensive in the Donbass area is successful.....there's just not much hope for the Russians holding out, and the big 'collapse' will be in October.  

BS?  I might rank this 30-percent BS.....the problem is that tank and APC-wise....the Russians have a big gap, and can't improve it.

Third, the LEG real estate group in Germany has completed an analysis...according to WELT.  They say...if this heat-pump mandate occurs....a significant amount of air conditioning usage will occur, and major consumption of electricity will go up....creating a problem in providing power.  

This will trigger more conversations.  I don't really doubt this....it's been suggested in various circles for a month or two.

Is There a Migrant/Asylum Crisis Going On in Germany?

No.

But there are around a dozen issues brewing, and the SPD-led coalition is in a worried posture....as are the sixteen German states.

First, lets note that around one-million Ukrainians.....mostly women and kids....temporarily reside in Germany, and have NOT asked for asylum status.   They've sought safe conditions until the war ends, and based on 'chatter'....I'd say tha the vast majority will leave within six months after the war ends.

Those one-million require lodging and German-gov't support....meaning money from each of the sixteen states.  

Second, if you go and review news reports over the past year or two.....a number of German schools are admitting that immigrant kids are having language issues, and the funding isn't there to really 'bump' them up.  Some of these kids are disenchanted, and they represent problems in the future....if actions aren't corrected.

Third, crime numbers are mostly where they were five years ago.  More cops have been hired, and in urban areas.....there's a fair amount of patrols that occur (I can attest to that in the Mainz, Wiesbaden, and Frankfurt areas). 

It's just that news reporting now talks about this....where five to ten years ago....only the worst stuff was reported.....so you see more.

You see more about knife crimes or assaults....because the public news sector has been accused so often of just avoiding the subject.  

Fourth, as far as I've seen....migrant numbers are leveling off or going down.  At the current pace for 2023, unless changes occur, I'd say 500,000 to 600,000 migrants are now possible.  Before 2013?  The average was around 200,000 a year, and most all of them had approved visas as they arrived (doing the paperwork in their home-country).  

This worries the sixteen states....because they'd like to see a controlled path. 

Finally, to housing.  Lets be honest....in the top forty cities of Germany, there is a crisis going on with affordable living.  The SPD coalition had a goal of x-number of apartments built per year, and in 2023....it'll miss the goal.  

If you were a town like Heidelberg and had 2,000 migrants that you trying to help find local housing?  Good luck with that.  If you do find a residence and settle up on the cost factor....that guy or gal, or family....probably won't be able to pay their living cost....for at least three or our years.  The burden falls back to the state....to pay what is outrageous rent situations. 

There is a mess here....which politically could trigger election chaos in 2024 and 2025.   

Seven German News Stories

 1.  Mercedes factory shooting at Sindelfingen?  Well....cops have the 53-year-old Turk-German shooter (alive).  Two folks dead (somewhere in his management chain, non-Mercedes employees....logistical type support).  Occurred around 7:45 AM....early in the shift.

What they say is that friction came up politically over the weekend election in Turkey.  Two dead guys were pro-Erdogan, and shooter was stressed-up.  

What the police lay out....after the first two were shot....plant security folks arrived on the scene....overpowering the shooter, then holding him until the police arrived. 

I'll just say a lot of hyped-up feelings over the election coming up in Turkey.  Fair number of Turks want Erdogan gone.  

2.  Some argument started up in a cafe in the Mannheim area....man and woman.  Reached a point where the guy pulled out a knife and stabbed the gal in the cafe.  Somewhere in the scuffle....guy also got cut up.  Both alive currently.  No one says what the argument was about.

3.  Last night on ARD's Maybrit Illner public show?  Unusual topic....reality check on the Green Party hyped-up topics.  CSU's Manfred Weber brought a lot to the table.  Hour probably hurt polling numbers for the Greens, but this is a fairly late forum show, with a lesser audience (after 10:00 PM).

4.  This heat law draft going on in the Bundestag....has been fairly challenged by the FDP.  I'd now give it less than 50-percent of getting passed....as is.  Chief piece?  Mandate to force people into the heat-pump technology.

5.  This Russia offensive....has finally hit a peak....Ukraine offensive underway.  Russian bloggers talking about 'lot' of losses. 

6.  German army to buy up CH-47 helicopters from the US....$8.5-billion value. 

7.  For those who thought the rail strikes were ended and agreement was coming?  Well...NO.  Numbers offered....apparently didn't work.  Fresh new national strike set for Monday/Tuesday.  

This Mercedes Factory Shooting?

 All I can say presently.....in Stuttgart at the Mercedes factory....some logistics guy (not associated with Mercedes) entered, was a Turk, and shot dead two of the management guys for his company....both of them Turks.  

Some kind of political situation...two dead bosses were pro-Erdogan....the shooter...anti-Erdogan.  

Where the pistol came from?  Unknown.  

More to come.

What Is The Bürger in Wut Political Party? (BIW)

 Well....up in Bremen....there's been efforts to prevent the AfD Party (far-right) to participate in regional politics.  

This BIW group (translates basically to 'Citizens in Anger' Party.....has been around since 2004, and since the effort started up to contain or limit AfD in Bremen city politics (remember, Bremen is a city-state....in the same way that Bavaria or Hessen functions)....the party has filled the 'gap'.

Why I bring up BIW?  Well....this weekend is the Bremen City election.  

Presently with polling....it appears that the CDU and SPD are neck-and-neck (SPD at 30-percent and CDU at 27-percent).  Between the two....they will make up around 55-to-60 percent of the voting.  The Greens?  Pulling around 13-percent, and the Linke Party is marginally at 9-percent.

Then BIW comes up.  Presently, their numbers are near 9-percent.  Not a big deal, but it demonstrates that as much as the parties do to hinder AfD voters.....there are always alternate ways to restack the deck. 

This Bremen election meaning much?  No....but if  you figure Sunday night chatter off both ARD and ZDF public TV folks.....it'll be discussed for several hours that evening.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  Refugee summit action?  The sixteen German states and the federal gov't met.  I'd say that three key things came out: another billion Euro was found to help the states on cost (enough for now, but go expect another demand for more cash by the end of 2023), federal folks promised quicker action on deportation, and some marginal promise of fewer refugees (unlikely) in the future.

2.  There's some chatter that a mandate will occur....where if you enter an emergency care situation (either in the emergency room or via a vehicle/doctor situation)....a 20-Euro fee will occur (either by cash or card).  How the poverty people will pay for this?  Unknown.  I don't consider this a crazy cost item.  It's simply a fee which the insurance folks won't be paying....it'll be a direct payment from you (the consumer).

3.  WELT had an interesting piece worth reading for today (Thursday)....talking about the four big grocery chains of Germany (REWE, Edeka, LIDL, and ALDI).  All are in heavy competition now (more than ever).  Some are looking for ways to cut cost.....going to fewer open hours, and lessening service counters.

Typical open hours now?  Locally for me: 7 AM to 9 PM.  It's not unusual to find a grocery which stays open to 11 PM.  

If you'd brought up these kind of hours back in 1978?  People would have gone nuts.  

4.  WELT also had a article over Covid vax complications....discussing a study where vax people suffered twice as many vascular occlusions as non-vax people.  Probably worth reading.

5.   5 November: NFL game in Frankfurt, between Kansas City and Miami.  12 November: Frankfurt, Dolphins versus Colts.

Ticket cost?  No mention yet.  Stadium can hold 51,000 spectators.  I would expect complete sale-outs for both games.  VIP seats with drinks/food?  Price listed presently is around 2,300 Euro (each).  Regular seats?  I would presently guess in the 50 to 75 Euro range, but there's going to be a lot of package deals, which bring the price closer to 300 to 500 Euro.  

If this goes successfully?  I'd suggest a repeat for 2024.  

Soccer Chatter

 I rarely talk sports news.  This AM....N-24 had a brief piece.  Women's World Cup is supposed to start 20 July (runs for a month) in NZ and Australia.

Right now....FIFA is denying the German public TV networks (ARD/ZDF) the rights coverage because they haven't bid the correct amount of money (in the mind of FIFA).

This worrying folks?  Well....ARD/ZDF aren't talking much about this.  They've basically reviewed their funds and set a budget of X-amount.  They don't really have extra money laying around. 

Why FIFA is playing this way?  Well....they promised the female players a chunk of money (way over the previous Cup situation).

The odds of this blackout....no women's World Cup action....in Germany?  I'd say near zero, but clearly.....ARD/ZDF aren't going to throw tons of cash at this.

The German female coach?  Weekend chatter from her....blasted ARD/ZDF...that they had to find the money.

What had been attempted?  German, Belgium and Netherlands joint bid....apparently didn't reach the level required.

What I'll predict....eventually the public TV folks will offer a chunk of money....but not near the expectation, and the FIFA folks will have borrow some cash flow from the next bid for the men's games.  

All of this making the equalization of women's pay a joke?  Look....I would imagine out of every hundred German guys....fewer than 20 watch women to any degree, and there's just not that much national interest being generated.  

What Is Safari-Park Mentality?

 Basically, you notice an event unfolding which isn't typical or normal, and you just stand there in witness-mode....observing.  

Twenty years ago, across Germany...this would occasionally occur, drawing a crowd.  You'd say that they were just confused or wondering what-the-hell was going on.

Today?  In an average week, I'll notice this in some fashion....while shopping or going through a shopping district, or while in a train station.  Even I'm guilty of this behavior because there's just weird stuff that occurs on a regular basis.

A couple of weeks ago, I stood there in Wiesbaden where some woman (probably in her 50s) was on some type of Opioid-trip....acting zombie-like (taking a step or two, then resetting her pace/statue of body).  This was in mid-day, at the edge of the shopping district.  

Back around March, I sat on a bench in Wiesbaden, with two reckless kids on E-scooters...doing all kinds of movements to threaten walkers in the shopping district.  Eventually, with at least 20 people focused on this/watching....one kid had a pretty bad crash and stayed on the ground for a good 60 seconds, with no one rushing up to help him.  I was mostly of the mindset that he was begging for attention and didn't care if he got hurt bad.

A danger?  No....there's nothing dangerous about safari-park mentality.  But it is focusing your attention on something pretty harsh and negative....making it influence you politically.

App Story

 This week, via the ARD Tageschau (the public newscast)....some chatter over the Covid warning-App that the German government sponsored.  

The App  going away on 1 June?  Well....yes.  You won't be able to download it, but you can still keep it on your phone, and use it to show your vax status.

A failure?  No.  

I would suggest that it was primarily there to give some 'hope' (encouragement) to the public that Covid could be managed (even if it was a fake hope).

My wife downloaded (I didn't).  It was about 90 days into use that she got the alert one day....she'd been near someone who tested later positive for Covid.  I had to sit there with her in high anxiety/stress (her reaction, not mine)....fearing the worst of the worst scenarios....for probably five consecutive days.  

It was in this time that I research the driving force on how it operated.  It simply calculated that you stood near (say 1.5 meters) of a person who tested positive yesterday.  It wouldn't tell you when or where this occurred....just that a person near you tested positive.  If you traced your steps for the past three days?  There's probably 300-odd occasions that this potential scenario clicked-on.  For the worry-crowd, it just pushed them to a higher level of stress.

After that first episode....I kinda discounted it as a App of value.  All total?  My wife probably received five of these warnings.  Oddly....none of them resulted in her getting Covid.  Our two episodes of actual Covid?  Strictly from office meetings at her place of work....where no warning episode would ever fit into.

A lesson in App development?  Oh....absolutely.  I would review the data and probably work on this App for future use in other ways.  

If you brought up the App with most Germans?  I'd say most downloaded it and eventually discounted it as a handy App....but they kept it on their phone (just in case).  

How I think development should go?  Soccer club alerts....your App would tell you when high-dose fans of certain clubs are within 10 meters of you.  Or maybe for weird kinky sex freaks....identifying themselves to other weird kinky sex freaks.  Or perhaps sensing your anxiety levels and warning office co-workers that you are entering the work zone....very negative.  

What Is This German Refugee 'Summit' All About?

 Basically, the sixteen German states (and associated cities) have an ongoing financial problem where the cost of handling migrant/refugees....is reaching a crisis level.  

Part of this....you can blame on the Ukraine-Russia war (1-million Ukrainians in Germany presently), and part of this is the friendly manner where failed applicants linger on and have a cost factor.  You can also lay out blame on states for being stuck with deporting failed applicants, but finding delay upon delay to carry out deportations.  Finally, you can bring up the serious cost factor of handling folks....possibly for two or three years while in language class, integration class, and job training.  

What the summit is supposed to achieve?  States want a chunk of money.  The state suggest in some fashion...that the calculation method here that the fed folks use....is crapped-up.  From my personal view.....the folks in Berlin have generally made it obvious that they have no real idea of what it costs to manage a group of refugees.

Since January?  Well....the gov't says around 29,000 Syrians have arrived in Germany, and are in some present status.  With Afghans in Germany since January?  Roughly 20,000.  Iranians?  4,700.  Russians?  3,500.  

What to expect out of this meeting?  Mostly nothing.  

There is a suggestion that Scholz may try to get the EU to take some of these folks.....I suspect that will fail because no one wants to match the support/funding that Germans typically hype-up.

What Germany paid (nationally) in 2022 for refugee support?  Almost 30-billion Euro (for support, housing, language classes, help, etc).  

All of this chatter in a negative sense...eroding support for the SPD-Green-FDP coalition?  Well....yeah, there is this odd problem brewing.

Some Germans (probably less than a quarter) think the whole program is out-of-whack, and there's a tremendous amount of money being spent here....rather than on the down-and-out or welfare class of Germany.  They have a point to openly discuss.  But this brings up the AfD Party, and how their numbers have been going up lately in polls.

So in the end....this summit....is mostly about 'nothing' and delivers 'nothing' as a solution?  Yeah, and you can't spin this in any fashion without laughing.

Cannabis Chatter

 I sat and read over the German gov't draft rules for legalization of cannabis.  So, some factors:

1.  These 'clubs' where you might buy a very limited amount....they can't be a place where you consume the cannabis there.  You buy it....then leave the place.  The rule also says that you (as a smoker) can't consume the cannabis within 250 meters of the 'club'.

2.  Whatever package they put your cannabis into at the 'club'....has to be neutral in color or 'look'.  Plan vanilla....would be the term I'd use.

3.  The most you can buy from your 'club' in a month?  50 grams.  That's 1.7 ounces of weed.  

4.  The amount of paperwork required by the club?  The gov't basically says they need to monitor each sale, the active THC  level, amount 'destroyed', etc.  I would imagine most will say this is ridiculous in nature, and you might well continue using your black-market drug dealer.

5.  Consuming in a pedestrian area (on the street)?  Legal from 8 PM to 6 AM.

6.  Consuming in a playground area? No....forbidden.

Based on the wording, I'll just go and predict that regular drug-dealing cannabis sales will continue on (the illegal stuff).  

Four German News Stories

 1.  'Hart Aber Fair' public forum show (ARD, Channel One, 9PM last night)....was on the topic of affordable housing.  I'll just say two things....first, if you watched it and were 18 years old....it's a pretty dismal situation on being able to buy a house.  Second, no one is suggesting any retreat from the crappy economic mess to own a house.  

2.  Victory in WW II parades going (not in Germany of course).  Big deal in Moscow, and the word is that Putin will make a speech.  There will be some type of ceremonies in Berlin....with the rule that the city has banned Russia flags (in any use).

3.  WELT had a long piece today....talking over the teacher-shortage going on in Germany.  Recruiting efforts even going beyond the German border now.

4.  Nuki Smart door-lock is being marketed in Germany.....no keys required, just your cellphone.  Interesting technology.

Deportation Discussion

 Wednesday this week, there is supposed to be a German federal gov't and state gov't (16 of them) meeting to discuss the immigration/asylum 'crisis'.

To put this into prospective.....we are at a totally different landscape than existed in 2015, and it's a totally different worry going on.

So problem number one....the cities and states are saying the funds aren't there to handle the in-flow.  It's pretty blunt that it's beyond a conservative/liberal discussion stage.  Virtually all of the sixteen states are hyped-up and want the purse opened up.

Then you come to the issue of people who've been reviewed, and failed the asylum request.  The duty of deporting folks?  It's mostly a state obligation....not federal.  The public is reaching a fed-up stage, where the fed side will have to step in and invent something 'new'.

Then you come to the threat of public sentiment....they want failed applicants to leave.    

The Chancellor says he can rig up a method to deport faster....basically taking you upon the failed application....to some compound....to be locked up until you are fixed on the ticket business to leave the country.  

Deportation being more of a state factor, than federal factor?  Well....yeah, that is another part of the mess.  

Odds of this passing?  Even if the Greens say 'no'.....there's more than enough CDU/CSU votes to pass this.  

The problem is....you really need to accomplish something and show improvement, or you end up giving another three to six points in the election business....to AfD.

As for this being rocket-science?  Last year in some chat forum....someone made the suggestion that if you went looking on the failed-asylum list or women....there just aren't females who make it on the list (like a 99-percent male thing).  If you were looking for 'bad-boy' reasons to be deported....then it's traditionally a male-thing.