Russia-Russia-Russia

 I noticed this AM....that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced the creation of 2 new ground armies, with 16 new brigades & 14 new divisions.

Now....across Europe, it's been hyped a good bit.

So some analysis.

To be honest, this was already hinted about a year ago to come.  

Then, the Russian words added to this....the two new ground army would  exist in 2024....meaning the organization, leadership and conscripts would come to exist.

A ground army?  Well...typically it'd be in the 400,000 to 500,000 range.  

Where they would get the million-plus folks?  I would imagine a bunch of the captains to Lt Col's will be papered-up and promoted into the two armies.  Then for the remaining 98-percent?  Well....just about every single guy between 18 and 30....would be yanked for service.

Collapsing the economy?  Well....yeah, that's the chief problem.  There's serious damage approaching within 18 months...where the whole nation is bogged down.

Could they identify 1-million billets (on paper) and only fill 20-percent (200,000)?  Yes, they've done 'games' like this before and it's likely that way again.

Trained-up?  Marginally....enough to put on a uniform.

Upsetting a lot of young men who had zero interest in the military?  Yeah, and if you had a chance to leave....this would be the right time.

Enough tanks, trucks, APCs and artillery for the new units.  NO....this is the number issue worth discussing.  

I would imagine most  of the tanks allocated to the two.....will be mostly stuff from the 1960s/1970s.....poorly maintained.

Facing Finland, the Baltic and Poland?  There were army posts there throughout the 'cold war'....mostly all abandoned.   My humble guess is that the generals would all chat over such-and-such post still being there (fondly remembered).....to  discover most have been torn down or burnt to the ground.

So lets get to the serious question.....will this freak out NATO, and particularly Germany?  Oh yes.

Enough to trigger bulking up on forced conscription?  I would imagine the Germans are quietly going over options and how they could entice forty-odd thousand new German youths (male and female) to join.

The realistic end-point?  I would suggest five things:

1.  On paper, 1-million billets, but only 10-percent manned by the end of 2024, and maybe 20-percent by the end of 2025.

2.  At least 1-million Russian young men opting to leave the 'motherland' by the end of 2024.

3.  Germany pushing to find another 50-billion Euro to purchase more hardware and signing 'bonuses' for young men/women to join.

4.  An awful dramatic worry that Trump will win and cease US participation in NATO.

5. A crazy belief that a full-up tank battalion (typically 40 tanks) is a threat, but in the reality of this....the Russians probably will only have 10 tanks per battalion, and all will be vintage T-72/T-64 (meaning they are 40-to-60 years old) hardware.

But in the view of exciting German public forum chatter....it's better than Covid.