Is The Clock Ticking For AfD To Pass The CDU-CSU Party On Polling?

 This coalition build exercise that the CDU-CSU and SPD Parties are engaged in....have one critical element...in that migration and deportation have to some type of success story over the next year or two.

At the current pace...about ever two-to-three months....there's a knife-assault or a multiple victim situation in Germany....where it leads back to a non-German.  The more victims....the more public discussion, and you can't really hide these events.

The one positive?  You can generally count on the police/authorities as identifying the  person in question having mental 'ailments' or disorders.

At the  present pace....if the new coalition does minimally nothing? I'd say by late 2026....AfD and CDU-CSU will each have around 25-percent of the poll numbers.

If I were desiring to prevent this day from arriving?  I'd probably go with the strategy in general....no matter who you are (German or non-German)....if you are labeled as potentially-dangerous (in the mental sense)....you go for 90 days to some farm-like  situation (with a security fence) and prove you are safe.  If you can't prove this over 90 days....you get a longer stay.

Failure to resolve this mess....the 2029 election gets to being fairly heated....with the possibility that AfD might win, but be unable to form a coalition with anyone.  In this scenario....the CDU-CSU is forced (as in 2nd place) to form  a rather difficult  coalition with probably the SPD AND Green Party.   If you want a massive weak government....that's the route to achieving it.

24 Mar 2025: Five German News Stories

 1.  French news: French police say they are in a investigation involving the Ukrainian Defense Minister.  They say the guy took around $46 million....destined to be used for munition purchases....to buy a villa (in France) for roughly $2,500,000.  On top of that....a vineyard for $6,500,000 and 27 land plots for $1,000,000.

Illegal?  No one is saying that yet.  But a fair number of French folks aren't pro-Ukraine and it just begs more questions.

2.  ARD news item: Germans are noticing rising health-care premiums, longer waiting times for appointments, a general shortage of doctors.  Polling shows that roughly one out of three Germans are now frustrated with the German healthcare system.

I'll just say roughly 10 months out of the year....if I need a local appointment....I can usually get it within five work-days.  Around mid-summer....he (the doc) goes off on a two to three week RV trip.....and you are screwed during this time.   I should add....if you wanted to be on his patient list....it could take you three years.

3.  Weekend violence: From Sunday, a guy  was mortally wounded by gun-play by gunfire at a wedding reception in Fürth.  Cops know who the 'shooter' was and are  searching for  him.

Other event....Parsberg....village 'party' got out of hand....two guys arguing, and one pulls out a knife...to stab the other guy.  Party connection?  Something connected to the Kurdish culture.

4.  From the weekend....political party selection  for presidential candidate done....Mayor of Istanbul...13 million Turks elected Imamoglu (being held in jail by Erdogan).  Whether he'll be allowed to run....up to the judicial system.

5. German companies pursuing national approval/financial-support for the  Deutschlandticket.  Funding by the federal gov't guaranteed for 2025....nothing spoken yet for 2026.   The ticket allows you monthly travel via buses/regional trains for a fairly inexpensive cost. 

Three Observations

 1.  With this political turmoil going on in Turkey....doesn't it harm tourism?

YES.....even with a ton of tourism money poured into TV ads....hoping on a recovery from Covid....Erdogan's crew are creating a perfect mess for Germans to view things, and get nervous about stability.

Ever since 2016....Germans have questioned things.  Prior to that....Turkey was one of the top vacation destinations.

If you asked me nightly....off commercial German TV....I'll see at least one to two Turkish tourism ads.  Total waste now.

2.  Talk in the coalition meetings...of  a E-car rebate?

Well....there's  talk to get people encouraged.  Early 2024....based on new car numbers....the whole E-car trend in Germany has peaked.

The majority of Germans....even if you offered a 3k Euro rebate (only on EU-produced E-cars)....it won't influence the selection.  Part of this.....charging station  opinions, and part  of this is simply the increasing cost of electric rates.

3.   Nicolas Walter wrote an interesting piece for WELT....worth a read....entitled: “I don’t want to know how many fake driving licenses are on German roads.”

What he points out....a high  number of folks are failing the drivers tests, and in recent years....there might have been some 'cheating'  going on.

My German wife is often critical of drivers now....pointing out to me as we drive through town....this 'mistake' or that 'mistake'.  Over a normal week....I hear this criticism of hers at least twenty times now.

Would I Offer A Travel Advisory For The US (Or Germany)?

 To be honest, I can think of a hundred reasons that I'd suggest you watch your backside....while on a trip to the US. But also....if you were an American visiting Germany....I'd probably also give you some advice on avoiding trouble or threats in Germany.

Urbanization threat?  It doesn't matter if you are visiting San Francisco, Dallas, Munich or Frankfurt....you need to pay attention to where you are walking, and avoid certain parts of town.

Drugged-up idiots?  Presently, I might give a edge to the US having a bigger problem.  But you have to view the knifing business in Germany and how crazy people have become.

Escalation?  There's no doubt that things have progressed over the past thirty years and predator-type crime exists in both countries.  

Less so in rural areas?  I can vouch in hundreds of German small towns....being 100-percent safe.  You can walk in towns like Speyer, or Bitburg....10 PM, and feel completely safe.  I can say the same thing for the majority of town in Oregon or Iowa.  

Trouble at border entry?  I can give examples out of Frankfurt....where an American got stupid at the airport. Lately, I've seen examples in the US....where some German got himself into trouble.  Nothing is simple anymore.

23 March 2025: Eight German News Stories

 1.  INSA, the polling organization....says the CDU-CSU at 27-percent, and AfD has climbed up to 23-percent.

2.  Odd tactic....Trump suggesting that the US take over operations of the Ukraine nuclear power plants.

3.  Rumor chatter...CDU  said to be working on a 'deal'  to hook back German energy purchases to Nord Stream II.

4.  SPD working on coalition position....to  bring new taxes up on the rich of Germany. CDU-CSU don't appear agreeable.  

If they fail on coalition strategy?  You'd probably see a new election by May.

5.  WELT item: Reported absences at work....due to depression, among Germans, up by 50-percent.

6.  largest protests in almost 12 years in Turkey.  Arrest of Erdogan's rival (Imamoglu, mayor of Istanbul) is mobilizing thousands to protest.  

I would suggest a long built-up pressure....probably half the nation want  a change, and in their mind....Erdogan has to retire. 

7.  Odd conversation going on....to spark  economic growth....the idea is put out there to cancel ONE German holiday.  Around the public....you just can't find any German who are agreeable to this. 

I imagine if you asked most....they would say if you have to dump a day....dump 'Unity Day' (3 Oct).  This celebrates unification of East and West Germany.  To be honest....99-percent of people have nothing special to do on the day. Politicians all have to mingle and make speeches talking over the glory of unification. 

8.  I noticed a speech by Ukraine's Zelensky from Saturday evening....he rejects Macron’s (of France) plan for UN peacekeepers (in Ukraine)....say he wants the NATO troops on the 'front-lines'.

Virtually no one in NATO is  going to be agreeable to that idea.  

Five Interesting Economic Stories

 1.  This past week....if you had $24 sitting around.....you could have bought just over 1-million Iranian Rials.

Reality?  You could order up a full McMenu dinner at McDonalds....for roughly $4 in Iran....while in California, it's nearly $18 for the same deal.

2.  I noticed off German business news this week....there's chatter that more pubs/cafes are banning laptop-use.  Reason?  Folks come in....order one drink, and use the Wi-Fi.....staying for 2 to 3 hours.   So there's tables being used but no real income.  

3.  The University of Potsdam started a unusual program nine years ago....taking degreed non-Germans (migrant folks) and putting them through a program to make them German accredited.  Success story but limited numbers.

4.  Since 2020.....a hundred German breweries have dissolved.....profitability issues.  Part of this trend....energy costs?  Yeah.   And that leads back to the war.

5. One interesting aspect of the German gov't debt change this week.....a bunch of city pools exist around Germany....that are 30 to 40 years old, and in need of either maintenance or replacement.  So some folks are hoping for cash to come down to them.

22 March 2025: Ten German News Stories

 1.  Just odd.....The French government is preparing a 20-page survival manual....which tells you what to do in a national emergency...if invaders come to France.  To be sent out in late-summer  2025.

I would  speculate that some French gov't agency went around and asked folks what they should do, and found that 99-percent have no idea.

Who would invade?  Unknown.  Doubt it's the Russians.....they've dissolved most of their force.   The Brits?  The Germans?  The Americans?  

If Trump wanted to 'play' along? Have the US prepare a Normandy-like 20-page  pamphlet....how we'd arrive on the shores, and repel the enemy for the French people. 

2.  From ZDF Politbarometer.....73 percent of Germans in a poll....which includes around 44 percent of CDU/CSU folks....think that the Merz and the CDU/CSU lied to voters  in some ways, and violated some  promises made.

3.  There's talk that Merz wants a 'path' to end gov't funding for Ukrainian refugees....basically suggesting they work to earn help.....or go home.  I can't say this idea resonates with Germans in general.

4.  Via a YouTube  podcast, wit Tijen Onaran....there was a talk last nigt with German sociologist Armin Nassehi....on MUT.  You can watch it here (in German).

So Nassehi says something interesting in the 50-odd minute talk.  He says there's growing uncertainty in the landscape....involving politics and people. Then he says: "Yes, Germany is indeed going crazy." 

He points out...various levels of stress and crisis are going on....which he  notes: “We don’t really know how the world works anymore.”

Then he notes....it's not just a German thing.....it happens throughout the world.   In simple terms....things have changed.

5.   Back on 19 February 2020, a 43-year-old German guy shot nine people.  Motive?  When you read through everything....racism....all shot were Turks.  Later, the shooter went home and shot his mother and himself.

A fair amount of investigation has been  done....facts on the table.   As far as the city and police are concerned....it's enough, and now closed.

Well....relatives of the dead (all Turks) aren't satisfied.  One unusual element is left.

The back-door of the 'Arena Bar' (where the shooter entered to kill most of his victims....was locked-up.  The folks inside  could not exit.

Why?  Well...the story goes to a number of police raids at the bar.....for drug sales.  Someone had ordered the door to be locked.  The families of the victims want the person responsible to be listed.

The families have gone to a regional court to force the issue.  The paperwork submitted?  700-pages.

The problem  with this  pursuit?  Well....you can't prove that the victims inside had a chance to make it to the rear door.

What'll happen? It'll take six months to review the paperwork, and come to some conclusion.  They could reopen this, and force another investigation.  Being able  to conclude  facts....six years after the event? Yeah, that might be problem.  If it were a fire-escape door....it could not be locked under any circumstance.

6.  Currently,  besides the US embassy in Berlin, there are US consulates in Munich, Leipzig, Hamburg, Frankfurt and Dusseldorf. 

Chatter out of DC started yesterday....worldwide, the US is considering a major cut in consulates.

Odds of at least  two of the  consulates in Germany closing? I'd give it high probability...with Leipzig being one.

7.  Knife attack.....a German allegedly injured two people with a knife on the street in Bielefeld (at a gas station). One pretty serious.  What the cops say....the was in an apparent state of mental distress.

8.  Ministry of Defense had a blunt statement on Friday...NO....the F-35s ordered from the US....will NOT have a kill-switch on it.  Lot of chatter on this story.  All BS.

9.  Mercedes is downsizing and there's a group of 'protected' employees which they can't CUT.  The topic came up today, and Mercedes is working on a 'deal'...for a number of these employees....there's a offer on the table...for the top-level guys....of 500k Euro (if they'd volunteer to leave).  

10.  WELT item, 14.5-percent of couples with kids in kindergarten and day-care....German is not the primary language spoken.  

Crystal Ball Gazing

 Five things I see happening:

1.  I think Tesla will fail within 18 months....with the Germany plant collapsing.  Chief reason....enough Germans and Europeans convinced that  Musk is 'evil'. Oddly, a year after this....I see E-cars in general....not selling, and H-Cars  (hydrogen-power) being  the new development.  Oddly, the Tesla plant closes.....with the lesson learned being...it's a risk to start a plant in Germany (whether true or not).

2. As the war ends in the Ukraine, with Russia taking roughly 10-percent of 2020's Ukraine....the population situation develops quickly....that 70-percent of the 2020 population of the region...refuses to live in Russian occupied territory.  Even Russian-Ukrainians (living there before)....will have no interest.

3.  Germany re-establishes Nord Stream II natural gas contracts with Russia...by the end of 2025.

4.  The German Army, desperate to enlist people....will  offer up a deal as migrants can get residency and citizenship....if they can pass the German language test, and enlist for 6 years.  Over 15,000 by 2030....will be under this program.

5. By 2050, a majority of 21-year-olds in Germany....will be migrant in nature.  A German Chancellor who is second-generation Syrian-German....will be elected.