9 May 2025: German News Stories

1.  Well...it's hard to describe this....the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) says  they will no longer publicly describe the AfD Party as a confirmed right-wing extremist group....at least until a court decision on an expedited procedure is made.

Yeah, AfD submitted court paperwork, and challenged the1k-plus page report.  

I pondered over this.  Just to read the report....with court officers now forced to review it....you could be talking about six months minimum, and I would imagine there's going to be a list of 250-plus questions which BfV will have to answer.

Could the court tell BfV....'you-screwed-up'?  Yeah.  If that were to occur.....a couple of folks would be terminated/fired.  

If the court agrees with BfV?  Well....the ban action would go pretty quick (before the mid-2026....I assume).

One odd report I saw....via BR....there are AfD teachers, and there is some suggestion that they are 'planting' ideas of AfD going good things for society. Could be a BS media report....could be simply a small number of teachers in this mindset.

2.  Chancellor Merz now declares a “national emergency” regarding migration.   So everything prior to that....was not a national emergency (so to speak).

3.  ARD (public TV) did a poll.....roughly TWO out of three Germans think another European war is now possible.

Oddly, the poll didn't WHO or HOW this war would occur....but people seem hyped-up in believing it will happen.

Via HR.....they say that from ages 12 to 25....it's near 81-percent who think war  is 'coming'.  Who commissioned the survey?  Well....the Bundeswehr (the Army).

German mental health doctor being interviewed....was posed the question....if  fear of war could trigger mental illness? Doctor says no....but then says from the yearly patient-load....they have around 1,000 Germans seeking help at the outpatient clinic each year.

Yeah, there might be some propagandists at work here. 

I will admit....about every four months....my German wife brings up war-anxiety.  I usually reassure her....the German Army stands ready, with seven days of ammo.....before we have to surrender.

I watched a piece on ARD last night....5-minute report....Russian militia (civilians) on a military-camping style 'adventure'.  Mostly 50-to-70 year old  Russian guys....teaching teenagers how to camp 'rough', take guns apart, and be militia-smart.  Reminded me of these US militia-types from 1990s....getting folks  into a military mindset. 

One odd theme, if you think about it....the Russian militia types....they hate Nazis.  

4. The five biggest EU producers of natural gas (for 2023 data): Netherlands: 21.3 billion cubic meters (bcm), Romania: 9.7 bcm, Germany: 4.0 bcm,  Italy: 3.2 bcm, Poland: 3.1 bcm.

For the EU to cut off Russian sales.....they need to find a source for roughly 50 bcm.  I'm having trouble believing a replacement source can be found.....unless they are going to source LNG ships....coming out of Qatar, the US, or Argentina....for a massive haul-job.

5.  What is generally now said about the Spain blackout from 2 weeks ago?  On 28 April, as the blackout started....solar was providing 65-percent of electricity. Wind was about 12-percent.  Nuke and gas around 23-percent.

At some point.....two massive solar plants went down (no one says why).   There was apparently insufficient backup power....so the entire system crashed.

From the way it's discussed....I don't think the pro-recycle folks don't want to talk about this story.  

Repeat possibility?  No one talks about this, but there has to be some statistical possibility.

6. Pretty exciting circus show rehearsal yesterday.....17 kids wounded in Aldenhoven. Apparently, the fire-eater burned the tent a good bit.

Some kinda 'cough' and the tent was on fire.

8 May 2025: German New Stories

 1.  ZDF, business news item: Around 63-percent of all business purchases by Germans....were done by card...NOT cash....in the past year.

2.  Coalition gov't intends to dump one  law in 2025....there's a regulation from 2020 that says shops MUST print out and hand each customer the receipt, period (no exception).  If you ask most Germans....I'd say more than half  say if this were simply a ice cream, or bakery item....they'd prefer no print-out.  But the law says you must print it out and at least hand it to the customer (even if they don't want it).

3.   Raid in NRW (the state).....6,000 Cannabis plants discovered.

4.  The state of the Pfalz has cleared some regulations.....to allow automated  shops (no clerks) to operate 24 hours a day/7 days a week.  It would appear...by mid-summer, these types of shops will be fully approved.

For those who  haven't seen the technology.  This is  basically a small shop....maybe 4 meters by 8 meters....stocked up each morning by a delivery guy, with maybe 500 types of articles.  They are placed in smaller villages.  You only get access...if you scan your card at the door.  You scan your items at the end, and pay by card.  

5.  Green Party leader Felix Banaszak gave a interview yesterday AM via ARD "Morgenmagazin" (Morgen Magazine) . 

So....he indicated....yeah, that the Chancellor 'victory' for Merz in the 2nd vote....was 'helped' in some fashion by the Green Party.

He didn't go into a lot of details....but indicated that waiting 3 days for a 2nd vote....was not a positive thing....so they pursued a quick 'fix'. 

I would imagine....there's probably some votes that swung as well...from the Greens to ensure victory.  Greens had 85 seats/votes.

6.  Various comments out of Austria from  yesterday......mostly worried that if Germany gets tough on the border....there will be asylum folks denied entry and 'forced' to stay in Austria.  

7.  Weather guys yesterday gave their summer  predictions...saying  hot temps would be 'normal', and a extreme drought will linger around Germany.

8.  N-TV news item: Report over AfD being 'extremist'.....1,108 pages long.  If you ask me....across the entire Bundestag...even if you gave them two months to read the entire report....fewer than 1-percent would be able to accomplish it.

9.  On German border control....pregnant women and kids...will NOT be turned away.  For 2024.....roughly 240k sought asylum in Germany (gov't numbers).

7 May 2025: German News Stories

 1. Chancellor vote drama done.

On the second vote of 6 May....Merz got 325 votes (still not all of the 328 that the CDU/CSU and SPD have).

Someone made a suggestion....that maybe Green Party folks  crossed the line and voted to give Merz votes....to avoid failing the 3rd vote and triggering a national vote.   No facts to support this.  Obviously....some from the SPD and CDU/CSU....aren't that happy with Merz.

INSA (polling/survey folks) did a poll after the 2nd vote (for BILD).  57-percent of Germans say this was a pretty bad situation and Merz is 'permanently' damaged.  In a 2nd question....who benefits...51-percent said AfD got the big benefit (not a good sign).

2.  The union 'boss' of Germany civil service union gave a warning.....if the gov't starts cutting AfD Party members from gov't jobs....there would be a serious mess to clean up.

3.  BMW admits profits for first quarter are down.

Russian Natural Gas Chatter

 For 2024, EU countries imported approximately 54.45 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas from Russia (Bruegel data).

This is 21-percent more, than in 2023.

So it's just odd to me....a statement by the EU yesterday said....by 2027....EU countries would buy ZERO Russian natural gas (new EU policy).

Odds of keeping the promise? I'd give it less than 10-percent of occurring.

Is the EU aware of current consumption?  I doubt it.

Would EU members openly deceive the EU of the current purchase situation?  

Theatrical Show Wrapped Up: Merz Wiins

 Count: 325 votes for Merz....nine more than necessary.

Where the 15 'new' votes came  from? Unknown.  Who knows....maybe 15 Green Party folks or AfD Party folks stepped over and voted for him.  Or maybe these 'lost' SPD/CDU voters woke up.

So we have a new Chancellor.

If you asked me will this crew be around for four years?  I'm doubting that, and  in my mind....there's a potential fallen-coalition within 2 to 3 years.  

Most Germans would say that we really didn't need a whole new national election....to resolve matters.

3:15 PM Next Vote

 Bundestag starts 2nd Chancellor vote at 3:15 PM.

Votes counted by 4:15 PM.

If that fails with 316 votes?  A 3rd attempt will occur....requiring only a simple majority (1 vote more than those against).

3rd vote today?  No....this would likely go to tomorrow.

Explaining This German Chaos

 Well...since 10 AM today....it's been like a train-wreck, and the failure to nominate Merz as Chancellor....is now a massive topic.

The way the system works....after an election....the winner-party is given a period of time (usually 4-to-8 weeks) to work a coalition deal...totaling 50-plus percent, and having a list of officers/ministers...and the Chancellor-seat to be the winner-party 'boss'.

Nothing is final until the coalition document is done, presented,  and then a vote occurs.  Merz in this case needs 316 vote, out of 328.  Well...he got 310.  Six short, but from the combined 328 SPD and CDU-CSU votes....18 folks didn't cooperate.

The system allows for a second vote, but generally recommends a 2-week cooling-off point.

Merz furious? OH YEAH.  

Who voted against him?  Unknown.   Scholz (still Chancellor) could have voted against him....as could any number of CDU folks.  Far left members of the SPD?  Yeah....same story.

CDU-CSU voters thrilled with the coalition agreement?  No....I'd say somewhere around 30-percent believe that it's mostly a left-of-center situation (not what they voted for).

Merz said to some degree....he wants another vote 'shortly'....meaning today.  Some report indicates the papers are prepared and by 6 PM....the second vote will occur.

If that fails?  A 3rd vote could occur tomorrow....requiring only a simple majority.  Most assume if the 310 situation holds....then he passes.  If some folks drift away and he fails the simple majority?  Then the President would give the public a 2nd vote.

A second public vote timeframe?  Well....you'd have to figure at least 2.5 months...so around mid-July.  The old gov't (Scholz coalition) still in charge?  Yes.

Would Merz run for the CDU  in the new election (July)?  I would suggest no.  The party would meet here within 10 days....form up three to four top candidates, and pick a new Chancellor candidate.  

Same story for SPD?  Yeah.

A mess remaining for the Minister of Interior (Faeser)?  Yeah, she's stuck holding the report....suggesting that the AfD Party be banned.  She needs to present it to the Bundestag and take 'some' type of action.

If banned before the election?  Where do  the 25-percent of public support go?  And could this get BSW (they failed to get to 5-percent of the vote....so no seats currently (they got around 4.8-percent).

The wildest scenario is that we go to a new public vote....BSW gets the banned AfD voter support, and you sit there in July....unable to form a gov't coalition.

Tonight being a hectic night for journalists in Germany?  Between Channel 1/2....probably four hours of chatter on this mess.

Merz Failing On The Vote?

 Merz fails in first round of chancellor election (10 AM).  

Yeah, weird deal.  Coalition agreement done...delivered.  All the CDU-CSU and SPD had to do....deliver all their member votes, and Merz was in.

Around 9:30, voting stopped, and 20 minutes of counting took place.

He needed 316 votes.   He got 310 votes.  If you count SPD and CDU-CSU votes possible....there's potentially 328.  So 18 folks didn't vote for him.  

What the book says for rules?  A second vote could be absolutely held in two weeks....with a possible rule sitting there.....suggesting a 2nd vote even today is possible.

Going to a 3rd vote?  The regulation says it's possible but you only require a simple majority to 'win'.

How peeved is Merz?  OH....on the high side.  Was it SPD votes that failed, or CDU-CSU?  Unknown.  There probably are a dozen CDU folks highly negative about Merz.

Yeah, it's pretty interesting thing to watch.  And yes, Scholz is still Chancellor.