The German situation today':
1. If you think (this is a difficult thing to gauge) that you have the virus....call 116 117. DON'T go to the emergency room or your local doctor. They will alert your local folks, and instructions will be given to show up at a medical facility doorway....where the test will be given (you need to cite some symptoms to reach this level though). They don't want virus-affected people showing up at the emergency rooms, and passing it onto medical staff or other non-virus patients. According to the news media in Germany....the test requires about three to four hours.
2. 115 is now the telephone number to alert your local authority on issues (like your neighbor seems to be awful sick). It's not really explained how this is different from 116 117....but this seems to go to authorities, and not the medical folks.
3. If you arrive at any entry point (airports in particular) and come from Iran, South Korea, Japan, China or Italy.....you need to fill in a entry-card to say where you came from, and where you will be staying. How this will work at train stations....is an unknown. On autobahn entry from Italy? It's hard to figure if they will stop all cars and ask for this card to be filled out.
4. The federal police (not the state guys) are ordered to increase patrols along the border. No one is saying that they will stop more people....just that they will act more vigilant.
5. Some German federal priority is now given to acquiring more facial masks. This week, it's been noted about a national shortage, and significant price increase for all masks. Adding to the stress.....no one can say for sure if there is a manufacturer still existing in Germany for facial masks. Most that you see on the market or in pharmacy operations....were all Chinese-made.
6. Some business notes exist to suggest that Lufthansa will drop around 25-percent of their short-haul flights (meaning in Germany and Europe) over the next month. This kinda suggests that pilots and crew-members will be given shorter hours. One might suggest that other airlines will follow, and that the traffic out of Frankfurt might fall a good bit by the end of March.
Saturday, February 29, 2020
Coronavirus Infections Within Hessen
As of this morning, 29 Feb 2020.....we are at three total.
The latest is a gal from Giessen (mid-20s). It is noted that all three are in a mild situation on symptoms. Part of this positive position might be that they are all young (no one is over fifty years old). All three are on home-quarantine, and being monitored by the regional health authorities.
Being put into isolation at some hospital? The strategy presently is to avoid hospitalization unless you reach a serious stage.
The latest is a gal from Giessen (mid-20s). It is noted that all three are in a mild situation on symptoms. Part of this positive position might be that they are all young (no one is over fifty years old). All three are on home-quarantine, and being monitored by the regional health authorities.
Being put into isolation at some hospital? The strategy presently is to avoid hospitalization unless you reach a serious stage.
25 April For New CDU 'Boss'
There is a major meeting of the CDU Party (the right-of-center folks, Merkel's party) on 25 April. The key players up for the nomination of the party 'boss' and future Chancellor candidate will meet, and a selection will be made by party attendees.
At that point, AKK will step down from the party 'boss' job, and the new person will be in campaign mode for the rest of 2020, and throughout most of 2021.
The odds on favorite right now? Friedrich Merz.
Agreeable to the party members? Well.....no. I would take a humble guess than around 60-percent aren't that pleased over him.
Second possibility? Norbert Rottgen. Within the group of close supporters for Merkel.....Rottgen isn't exactly a pleasing idea either.
Third possibility? Either NRW's Premier President Armin Laschet or the Health Minister....Jens Spahn. Both would be supported by the pro-Merkel crowd.
There are three ways at looking at the internal politics to this:
1. A large segment of the population who typically vote CDU....want a focus change in this election.....going away from Merkel-theatrics and Merkel-strategy, which influences the party selection.
2. This will be one of the more difficult elections in German history, with the Green Party now surging, and possibly having 30-percent of the national vote. The party has to be mindful of that 'fight' required.
3. Finally, there's economic woes being discussed....a recession on the way, and the requirement for a pro-Germany economic situation. Merz is probably the better choice than the other three.
So I would anticipate....while maybe half the attendees at this party meeting would prefer Spahn or Laschet to replace Merkel....it'll really be a fight between Rottgen and Merz, with Merz likely winning the job.
Circle 25 April on your calendar and expect a chaotic weekend.
At that point, AKK will step down from the party 'boss' job, and the new person will be in campaign mode for the rest of 2020, and throughout most of 2021.
The odds on favorite right now? Friedrich Merz.
Agreeable to the party members? Well.....no. I would take a humble guess than around 60-percent aren't that pleased over him.
Second possibility? Norbert Rottgen. Within the group of close supporters for Merkel.....Rottgen isn't exactly a pleasing idea either.
Third possibility? Either NRW's Premier President Armin Laschet or the Health Minister....Jens Spahn. Both would be supported by the pro-Merkel crowd.
There are three ways at looking at the internal politics to this:
1. A large segment of the population who typically vote CDU....want a focus change in this election.....going away from Merkel-theatrics and Merkel-strategy, which influences the party selection.
2. This will be one of the more difficult elections in German history, with the Green Party now surging, and possibly having 30-percent of the national vote. The party has to be mindful of that 'fight' required.
3. Finally, there's economic woes being discussed....a recession on the way, and the requirement for a pro-Germany economic situation. Merz is probably the better choice than the other three.
So I would anticipate....while maybe half the attendees at this party meeting would prefer Spahn or Laschet to replace Merkel....it'll really be a fight between Rottgen and Merz, with Merz likely winning the job.
Circle 25 April on your calendar and expect a chaotic weekend.
Germany's Rural Doctor Problem
If you live in highly urbanized areas like Berlin, Hamburg, Dusseldorf, or Frankfurt....there's no numbers problem on doctors. In hundreds of rural communities around Germany, the public is keenly aware of the numbers crisis going on for doctors.
So I noted this short story over in Focus this morning.....talking over actions to correct this.
Bavaria is one of those German states that has the significant shortages. So after careful review, they did an odd thing in Bavaria.
Germany has a total of 38 medical schools. Bavaria? Of the 38....they (the state of Bavaria) run five of them.
There is a ranking order (depending on your grades, and other factors) to who gets placed in a medical school each fall, and who gets pushed back a year, possibly even two years.
So Bavaria has stood up and said if you put down on the form that you will volunteer and place yourself after graduation in a rural environment in Bavaria for ten years.....they will move you to the top of the status group.....getting a seat in the fall semester. To ensure you comply? They inserted a paragraph into the sheet which you sign.....if you leave for a urban job....you pay Bavaria 250,000 Euro (roughly 300,000 US dollars).
Improving the situation? It'll probably take at least ten years to confirm the success of this idea.
So I noted this short story over in Focus this morning.....talking over actions to correct this.
Bavaria is one of those German states that has the significant shortages. So after careful review, they did an odd thing in Bavaria.
Germany has a total of 38 medical schools. Bavaria? Of the 38....they (the state of Bavaria) run five of them.
There is a ranking order (depending on your grades, and other factors) to who gets placed in a medical school each fall, and who gets pushed back a year, possibly even two years.
So Bavaria has stood up and said if you put down on the form that you will volunteer and place yourself after graduation in a rural environment in Bavaria for ten years.....they will move you to the top of the status group.....getting a seat in the fall semester. To ensure you comply? They inserted a paragraph into the sheet which you sign.....if you leave for a urban job....you pay Bavaria 250,000 Euro (roughly 300,000 US dollars).
Improving the situation? It'll probably take at least ten years to confirm the success of this idea.
Friday, February 28, 2020
Virus Chatter: 29 Feb 2020
There was a little short clip piece on N-TV this morning....talking over the Coronavirus, which probably will hype up the situation a bit.
There's a virus expert from the major Berlin hospital Charite....Christian Drosten....who commented that 60 to 70 percent of the general German public will be infected by the virus. But he adds one positive in that it's a problem only if it occurs in a 'compressed short period of time'.
Then he kinda adds....this is going to take a minimum of two years before things level out. He doesn't see the vaccine being around in 2020.
A big deal? The number quoted around this past week is that 85-percent of the public is going to have a moderate flu-type situation (fever, chills, cough) and it won't be a big deal. For 15-percent of the public....they will require real hospitalization.
The bigger issue is that it will affect the economy in various ways, and the suggestion of a recession coming by mid-summer (my humble opinion) is a fair reality.
There's a virus expert from the major Berlin hospital Charite....Christian Drosten....who commented that 60 to 70 percent of the general German public will be infected by the virus. But he adds one positive in that it's a problem only if it occurs in a 'compressed short period of time'.
Then he kinda adds....this is going to take a minimum of two years before things level out. He doesn't see the vaccine being around in 2020.
A big deal? The number quoted around this past week is that 85-percent of the public is going to have a moderate flu-type situation (fever, chills, cough) and it won't be a big deal. For 15-percent of the public....they will require real hospitalization.
The bigger issue is that it will affect the economy in various ways, and the suggestion of a recession coming by mid-summer (my humble opinion) is a fair reality.
Virus Chatter: 28 Feb
A couple of days ago, I noted the Spanish four-star hotel in Tenerifle (the isle off the coast of Africa)....had a guest with the Coronavirus, and the government authorities had shut the hotel down....not allowing guests in, or out. Altogether? About a 1,000. Roughly one-quarter of them are Germans.
ARD (public TV here in Germany, Channel One) picked up the subject today.
Yes, there are hostile feelings at the hotel. Some folks have just said fine....let them walk around the hotel or the beach.....they don't believe the advice being given.
Two German doctors as guests? They've given commentary about the situation....avoiding giving their names.
What they say is that this is a marginal quarantine situation, and mental stress is harming some folks.
The Spanish government has reacted....basically detailing out ten mental-health specialists to come in and help people cope. No one says if they will be speaking German or whatever language required by the guests. It's hard to imagine the advice they might give.....other than being vigilant and pray a bit.
All of this has led the two German doctor-guests to ask the German government to 'send' help.
Some commentary suggests that the quarantine might end on the 10th day (instead of 14), and I would imagine every single guest will leave, and anyone who has reservations for the next month or two.....probably will cancel out of this hotel deal. The problem here is that most countries don't have a plan on how to handle an event like this, and you just make up the rules as you go along.
ARD (public TV here in Germany, Channel One) picked up the subject today.
Yes, there are hostile feelings at the hotel. Some folks have just said fine....let them walk around the hotel or the beach.....they don't believe the advice being given.
Two German doctors as guests? They've given commentary about the situation....avoiding giving their names.
What they say is that this is a marginal quarantine situation, and mental stress is harming some folks.
The Spanish government has reacted....basically detailing out ten mental-health specialists to come in and help people cope. No one says if they will be speaking German or whatever language required by the guests. It's hard to imagine the advice they might give.....other than being vigilant and pray a bit.
All of this has led the two German doctor-guests to ask the German government to 'send' help.
Some commentary suggests that the quarantine might end on the 10th day (instead of 14), and I would imagine every single guest will leave, and anyone who has reservations for the next month or two.....probably will cancel out of this hotel deal. The problem here is that most countries don't have a plan on how to handle an event like this, and you just make up the rules as you go along.
Virus Chatter
Last night (Thursday), ZDF (German public TV, Channel Two) around 10:15 ran one of it's primary public chat forums for about an hour (live). The Maybrit Illner Show. Normally, the show is dedicated to political topics. This time, it was about the virus outbreak.
Last night, they started off with a 8-minute piece by the Health Minister (he wasn't in the studio), where he answered around five or six questions posed. He was both in a warning mode, and in a reassurance mode.
Then it went to the panel of five virus experts and moderated by Illner.
At some point, Illner broke off the conversation and read some letter from a Chief Doctor of some lung clinic over at Saxony. The letter was rather blunt, and she limited her comments to roughly four lines. The doctor said that while there were beds in the clinic that could be put to use.....there was no way that they had the personnel to staff the place to the level required for some maximum type emergency like this. The hint was that you might end up in a hallway where forty rooms existed, but only four nurses to handle roughly eighty people.
Then she turned to some virus expert on the panel. His commentary was mostly that this virus will be around for days, weeks, months, and possibly years. He didn't have any positive comments to offer. Part of the real blame here is that Germany has become a nation of travelers.
If you ever attended some meeting of Germans.....among the main topics of conversation will be recent travels. So you might be sitting and kinda shocked that you are in the midst of twenty-five Germans, who in the past twelve months have been to seventy countries.
Some might admit to a spring week spent in southern Florida, and a fall trip to South Africa. One might admit to a North Korea trip (as crazy as it sounds). One might have spent three weeks on a bike crossing through the Congo. You might find a couple who were on a 40-day cruise around the Pacific and visited 22 countries. Some crazy German guy might admit that he went to a ranch in Australia and spent four weeks 'roughing it'.
Added to this comment about German travels....then you have so many thousands of non-Germans who arrive in Frankfurt, Hamburg, Berlin, or Munich each day....to have medical procedures done, buy the latest fashion, hang out and drink beer, and work on major 'deals'. There's probably a hundred Saudis or Kuwaitis who arrive weekly for serious medical work. From China (before the virus), I would make a bet that eight busloads of Chinese people arrived daily and went out on two-week tours of Germany. Hundreds of Australians fly into Germany around Oktoberfest to consume vast amounts of beer. There's probably forty New Zealanders who fly in daily to Frankfurt.....to experience zesty German lifestyles.
Is the threat about German hospitals correct....that they are not manned or equipped to a massive outbreak? Germans are business-like....they don't hire people to stand around and do nothing. So if they need only x-number of hospitals and x-number of nurses....then that's what they have on hand. I think Americans will discover the same situation in various states.
The one plus? Well....it has been bluntly pointed out that 85-percent of people with the virus are not going to see much more than a fever, a cough, and a down-time of seven days. These people don't need hospital care, and if you just keep them pumped up with fluids and ensure limited contact with people, then you've done a great job.
It's the other 15-percent of people, who you need to worry about....the folks who have lung issues, weak immune systems, were heavy-smokers for most of their lives, and will need real in-house hospital care.
It's going to be a rough year, and you might want to start practicing stringent sanitation habits....like washing your hands thirty times a day, and using alcohol wipes continually when using the subway or buses.
Last night, they started off with a 8-minute piece by the Health Minister (he wasn't in the studio), where he answered around five or six questions posed. He was both in a warning mode, and in a reassurance mode.
Then it went to the panel of five virus experts and moderated by Illner.
At some point, Illner broke off the conversation and read some letter from a Chief Doctor of some lung clinic over at Saxony. The letter was rather blunt, and she limited her comments to roughly four lines. The doctor said that while there were beds in the clinic that could be put to use.....there was no way that they had the personnel to staff the place to the level required for some maximum type emergency like this. The hint was that you might end up in a hallway where forty rooms existed, but only four nurses to handle roughly eighty people.
Then she turned to some virus expert on the panel. His commentary was mostly that this virus will be around for days, weeks, months, and possibly years. He didn't have any positive comments to offer. Part of the real blame here is that Germany has become a nation of travelers.
If you ever attended some meeting of Germans.....among the main topics of conversation will be recent travels. So you might be sitting and kinda shocked that you are in the midst of twenty-five Germans, who in the past twelve months have been to seventy countries.
Some might admit to a spring week spent in southern Florida, and a fall trip to South Africa. One might admit to a North Korea trip (as crazy as it sounds). One might have spent three weeks on a bike crossing through the Congo. You might find a couple who were on a 40-day cruise around the Pacific and visited 22 countries. Some crazy German guy might admit that he went to a ranch in Australia and spent four weeks 'roughing it'.
Added to this comment about German travels....then you have so many thousands of non-Germans who arrive in Frankfurt, Hamburg, Berlin, or Munich each day....to have medical procedures done, buy the latest fashion, hang out and drink beer, and work on major 'deals'. There's probably a hundred Saudis or Kuwaitis who arrive weekly for serious medical work. From China (before the virus), I would make a bet that eight busloads of Chinese people arrived daily and went out on two-week tours of Germany. Hundreds of Australians fly into Germany around Oktoberfest to consume vast amounts of beer. There's probably forty New Zealanders who fly in daily to Frankfurt.....to experience zesty German lifestyles.
Is the threat about German hospitals correct....that they are not manned or equipped to a massive outbreak? Germans are business-like....they don't hire people to stand around and do nothing. So if they need only x-number of hospitals and x-number of nurses....then that's what they have on hand. I think Americans will discover the same situation in various states.
The one plus? Well....it has been bluntly pointed out that 85-percent of people with the virus are not going to see much more than a fever, a cough, and a down-time of seven days. These people don't need hospital care, and if you just keep them pumped up with fluids and ensure limited contact with people, then you've done a great job.
It's the other 15-percent of people, who you need to worry about....the folks who have lung issues, weak immune systems, were heavy-smokers for most of their lives, and will need real in-house hospital care.
It's going to be a rough year, and you might want to start practicing stringent sanitation habits....like washing your hands thirty times a day, and using alcohol wipes continually when using the subway or buses.
Village and City Lock-Downs?
There's a discussion going on in public....mostly between political folks and health experts, over the idea that the authorities in Germany have the ability to lock-down an entire village or city.
What this comes down to is a government law (IfSG, Nationwide Infection Protection Act). It says: "If necessary, important fundamental rights such as freedom of the person, freedom of assembly or inviolability of the home as well as the right to physical integrity can be restricted."
There is a decent article to cover over at N-TV (German commercial news network), and worth a four-minute read. It covers the basic idea of lock-downs.
The act even covers the shutdown of railway networks, roads, and even airports.
If you look at discussions going on.....ordering identified people to home-quarantine situations is likely to be the only step taken.
Taking a city the size of Frankfurt or Wiesbaden, and trying to city-wide quarantine for ten days would be near impossible. I would take a guess that 10-percent of the affected population would even attempt to immediately leave the area as the order is given.
Continuing a food supply system? It might be possible, but I suspect some German drivers would refuse to go into quarantined towns.
Will the act be challenged in court if the authorities try to quarantine an entire village? For a small village.....I don't think anyone will mount a challenge. If it's the entire city of Mainz? Oh yeah....there will be some legal opposition to this, and challenges in the court system.
As things go right now.....I don't see the act being pulled out and used that much. Maybe a month from now....the situation has intensified, and you might see a village or town focused upon.
What this comes down to is a government law (IfSG, Nationwide Infection Protection Act). It says: "If necessary, important fundamental rights such as freedom of the person, freedom of assembly or inviolability of the home as well as the right to physical integrity can be restricted."
There is a decent article to cover over at N-TV (German commercial news network), and worth a four-minute read. It covers the basic idea of lock-downs.
The act even covers the shutdown of railway networks, roads, and even airports.
If you look at discussions going on.....ordering identified people to home-quarantine situations is likely to be the only step taken.
Taking a city the size of Frankfurt or Wiesbaden, and trying to city-wide quarantine for ten days would be near impossible. I would take a guess that 10-percent of the affected population would even attempt to immediately leave the area as the order is given.
Continuing a food supply system? It might be possible, but I suspect some German drivers would refuse to go into quarantined towns.
Will the act be challenged in court if the authorities try to quarantine an entire village? For a small village.....I don't think anyone will mount a challenge. If it's the entire city of Mainz? Oh yeah....there will be some legal opposition to this, and challenges in the court system.
As things go right now.....I don't see the act being pulled out and used that much. Maybe a month from now....the situation has intensified, and you might see a village or town focused upon.
Hessen and Coronavirus
This morning, public TV news in the Hessen state reported the first case of Coronavirus for this area of Germany.
The only facts released by the authorities is that it's one single person, who lives in the Lahn-Dill region (north of Frankfurt, about 30 minutes of a drive).....just west of Giessen. Where the person contracted this? An unknown....same on travels or fests they might have attended.
It is being pointed out by the experts in Germany that roughly 85-percent of people who are identified with the virus....just end up with a mild situation (cough, fever, sore throat, etc). With ample fluids and moderate drugs....this group moves on. It's the 15-percent group who move to a pneumonia-like setting and require intense help to survive the virus.
Of course, what's left out of this, and would require a lot of analysis.....that 15-percent group might be made up of a lot of people who smoke, have immune issues, or have some special health condition.
The only facts released by the authorities is that it's one single person, who lives in the Lahn-Dill region (north of Frankfurt, about 30 minutes of a drive).....just west of Giessen. Where the person contracted this? An unknown....same on travels or fests they might have attended.
It is being pointed out by the experts in Germany that roughly 85-percent of people who are identified with the virus....just end up with a mild situation (cough, fever, sore throat, etc). With ample fluids and moderate drugs....this group moves on. It's the 15-percent group who move to a pneumonia-like setting and require intense help to survive the virus.
Of course, what's left out of this, and would require a lot of analysis.....that 15-percent group might be made up of a lot of people who smoke, have immune issues, or have some special health condition.
Thursday, February 27, 2020
New Theme for Government
If you open up the front page of any German newspaper today, or view morning news....the big item is that Germany is putting together a 'crisis-team' to handle the Coronavirus.....from both the Interior Ministry (their Homeland Security group) and the Health Ministry. Seehofer (as Interior Minister) and Spahn (as Health Minister).
Right off the bat, it's openly said that no major fests or mass events should be cancelled. In various urban communities....that cancellation theme is already occurring for the next two or three months (certainly not all of them but it's obvious that communities are already in reaction mode).....so they've already gone past the advice of the federal government of Germany.
What the crisis-team is pushing is home-quarantine. So if you were in the 'wrong' railway car or on the elevator with Herr X.....the authorities can demand you stay at home. To be humble and honest here....it's hard to see how nationally this policy would work. A lot of people work on an hourly schedule, and to miss 40-plus hours of work.....really screws up the pay-check at the end of the month.
Kids on home-quarantine? They are saying that homework assignments can still occur, and they can do online activities.
There are a fair number of Germans now who think that the emergency talk should have occurred a month ago, and all fests should have been cancelled entirely.
On public appearances in the past week? Spahn has done a fairly adequate job, but the questions by moderators and journalists have gone to speculation type scenarios.....where Spahn can't answer the question, and it shakes confidence in his program.
Right off the bat, it's openly said that no major fests or mass events should be cancelled. In various urban communities....that cancellation theme is already occurring for the next two or three months (certainly not all of them but it's obvious that communities are already in reaction mode).....so they've already gone past the advice of the federal government of Germany.
What the crisis-team is pushing is home-quarantine. So if you were in the 'wrong' railway car or on the elevator with Herr X.....the authorities can demand you stay at home. To be humble and honest here....it's hard to see how nationally this policy would work. A lot of people work on an hourly schedule, and to miss 40-plus hours of work.....really screws up the pay-check at the end of the month.
Kids on home-quarantine? They are saying that homework assignments can still occur, and they can do online activities.
There are a fair number of Germans now who think that the emergency talk should have occurred a month ago, and all fests should have been cancelled entirely.
On public appearances in the past week? Spahn has done a fairly adequate job, but the questions by moderators and journalists have gone to speculation type scenarios.....where Spahn can't answer the question, and it shakes confidence in his program.
Summer Clothing Story
This got brought up today, as a page-four type business story, with barely four lines.
For most people who ever shopped around in Germany for summer clothing....you know that the first big deliveries and switch from seasonal fashions....occurs around mid-April.
Ships would typically be arriving with cargo containers from China....with summer fashion items which were 'designed' in the fall of 2019, and production probably started in December, with ships leaving by mid-February.
Well....with the virus in full effect, the production cycle probably never got more than a quarter of the way into the schedule, and cargo containers are a lot less than normal.
So what happens in these German clothing shops in April and May? That's a curious question.
No one is really that worried yet over this, but you tend to market seasonal clothing to profit cycles. If you don't have x-amount of stock.....then you lose on profitability.
If I were the Chinese production 'boss', I might hype up the crew to come in and make a strong attempt to produce the requirements, and hope for last minute shipping to save the day. But if the cargo containers arrive six to ten weeks late.....what exactly will the clothing shops do with the late summer clothing delivery, and will customers buy at that point?
It's an interesting situation, with no clear end-point.
For most people who ever shopped around in Germany for summer clothing....you know that the first big deliveries and switch from seasonal fashions....occurs around mid-April.
Ships would typically be arriving with cargo containers from China....with summer fashion items which were 'designed' in the fall of 2019, and production probably started in December, with ships leaving by mid-February.
Well....with the virus in full effect, the production cycle probably never got more than a quarter of the way into the schedule, and cargo containers are a lot less than normal.
So what happens in these German clothing shops in April and May? That's a curious question.
No one is really that worried yet over this, but you tend to market seasonal clothing to profit cycles. If you don't have x-amount of stock.....then you lose on profitability.
If I were the Chinese production 'boss', I might hype up the crew to come in and make a strong attempt to produce the requirements, and hope for last minute shipping to save the day. But if the cargo containers arrive six to ten weeks late.....what exactly will the clothing shops do with the late summer clothing delivery, and will customers buy at that point?
It's an interesting situation, with no clear end-point.
Looking for 300 'Festive' Germans
Early this morning on N-TV news (commercial network here in Germany), they came up with the new story over the Coronavirus.
There are two active cases of Coronavirus now, from the NRW region (northwest Germany).
What the authorities have figured out from these two NRW folks...is that they attended some type of carnival 'fest' in Gangelt (a big village of 6,000 roughly). On this particular evening.....roughly 300 folks were there....drinking up beer and having a pretty good time.
The local authorities of Gangelt are discussing this idea....getting all the names of the 300 folks, and imposing a two-week home-quarantine deal on them (to include their kids, spouses, etc).
The first of dozens of event like this? One might go and imagine this being a fairly common thing over the next two months. In fact, you might exit out of home-quarantine episode number one....being on a train to work on the first day out of a two-week home-quarantine.....where some guy with a fever and vomiting....falls over in the midst of the train-car. Then some police take your name, and by 8 AM of the next day......you get this guy at the frontdoor to tell you that you've entered a second two-week quarantine period.
One could imagine a guy suffering through two or three of these home-quarantine episodes. You better stock up on paint and wallpaper....to do a bunch of home improvement projects for 2020.
There are two active cases of Coronavirus now, from the NRW region (northwest Germany).
What the authorities have figured out from these two NRW folks...is that they attended some type of carnival 'fest' in Gangelt (a big village of 6,000 roughly). On this particular evening.....roughly 300 folks were there....drinking up beer and having a pretty good time.
The local authorities of Gangelt are discussing this idea....getting all the names of the 300 folks, and imposing a two-week home-quarantine deal on them (to include their kids, spouses, etc).
The first of dozens of event like this? One might go and imagine this being a fairly common thing over the next two months. In fact, you might exit out of home-quarantine episode number one....being on a train to work on the first day out of a two-week home-quarantine.....where some guy with a fever and vomiting....falls over in the midst of the train-car. Then some police take your name, and by 8 AM of the next day......you get this guy at the frontdoor to tell you that you've entered a second two-week quarantine period.
One could imagine a guy suffering through two or three of these home-quarantine episodes. You better stock up on paint and wallpaper....to do a bunch of home improvement projects for 2020.
Tree Story
If you've driven around the Hessen region of Germany over the past couple of months, there's been an aggressive push by towns to cut heavily upon limbs, and trees themselves....to prevent toppling during ice or snow storms. It's been more aggressive this year than in previous years.
This topic comes up because of an incident over in Bad Homburg which was covered by HR (our regional public TV network). For reference Bad Homburg is about 20 minutes north of Frankfurt, and is considered a 'suburb' of Frankfurt now.
What the police say....is that a crew came up on a street where a fairly big pine tree sat, and the city had assigned the crew the task of cutting the tree down.
The tree in question....a 20-meter spruce. Roughly 65 feet tall, and we might go and admit that spruce trees of this height.....have a fair amount of thickness (it's not a light-weight tree).
Well, in the act of cutting....some attention is drawn upon some 60 year-old local German gal. Even though the area was cordoned off and some kind of security 'guard' was there....she rushed the area as the chainsaw was about half-way into this....to 'save' the tree.
Seconds into this heroic act by the German lady....the tree starts it's fall, and lands on top of her.
What the police say is that she was 'bad-off' (an expression that an American southerner would use), and that it required both the services of a ambulance crew, and regional helicopter-rescue service. Broken bones? Yes.
This is a general dynamic now in dealing with the German public....that a fair number of Germans are out to 'save' something. And the use of common sense is thrown out the door while in the act of 'saving'.
The city now? I would take a guess that they will have to take extreme measures in all tree cutting in the future....maybe with multiple guards and additional fencing....to accomplish a simple tree job.
This topic comes up because of an incident over in Bad Homburg which was covered by HR (our regional public TV network). For reference Bad Homburg is about 20 minutes north of Frankfurt, and is considered a 'suburb' of Frankfurt now.
What the police say....is that a crew came up on a street where a fairly big pine tree sat, and the city had assigned the crew the task of cutting the tree down.
The tree in question....a 20-meter spruce. Roughly 65 feet tall, and we might go and admit that spruce trees of this height.....have a fair amount of thickness (it's not a light-weight tree).
Well, in the act of cutting....some attention is drawn upon some 60 year-old local German gal. Even though the area was cordoned off and some kind of security 'guard' was there....she rushed the area as the chainsaw was about half-way into this....to 'save' the tree.
Seconds into this heroic act by the German lady....the tree starts it's fall, and lands on top of her.
What the police say is that she was 'bad-off' (an expression that an American southerner would use), and that it required both the services of a ambulance crew, and regional helicopter-rescue service. Broken bones? Yes.
This is a general dynamic now in dealing with the German public....that a fair number of Germans are out to 'save' something. And the use of common sense is thrown out the door while in the act of 'saving'.
The city now? I would take a guess that they will have to take extreme measures in all tree cutting in the future....maybe with multiple guards and additional fencing....to accomplish a simple tree job.
Virus Story
If you draw a line between Frankfurt and Saarbrucken....somewhere in the middle is the town of Idar-Oberstein. Population of roughly 30,000 people. It's a fairly scenic town, with rock formations in the background, and half the city appears like some image out of the 1600s.
Well....yesterday, a train pulls into the town in the late afternoon, making it's way from Frankfurt to Saarbrucken. It should take around three hours for this complete trip. There's a problem onboard.....a guy is apparently throwing up, and has a fever.
There's a call for an ambulance. The police arrive with it. The ambulance crew and the emergency doctor? All in hazmat suits.
Yep, they've looked at the notes from the emergency call, and they believe it's Coronavirus.
The seventy-odd passengers onboard? Forced to wait....almost three hours. Every person is interviewed by the police and has to provide their ID.
The odds of any of them having the virus? Unknown. But your name would end up on a watch list and they could act if one or two of the seventy show symptoms....putting you on a house-arrest situation and waiting this out.
This is the chief problem with the virus.....you could be out for a business trip and meet up with a sweaty gal on the train, and half-an-hour later....she collapses on the floor of the train. Then the hazmat-suit guys arrive, and your whole day and probably the next four weeks are ruined.
Well....yesterday, a train pulls into the town in the late afternoon, making it's way from Frankfurt to Saarbrucken. It should take around three hours for this complete trip. There's a problem onboard.....a guy is apparently throwing up, and has a fever.
There's a call for an ambulance. The police arrive with it. The ambulance crew and the emergency doctor? All in hazmat suits.
Yep, they've looked at the notes from the emergency call, and they believe it's Coronavirus.
The seventy-odd passengers onboard? Forced to wait....almost three hours. Every person is interviewed by the police and has to provide their ID.
The odds of any of them having the virus? Unknown. But your name would end up on a watch list and they could act if one or two of the seventy show symptoms....putting you on a house-arrest situation and waiting this out.
This is the chief problem with the virus.....you could be out for a business trip and meet up with a sweaty gal on the train, and half-an-hour later....she collapses on the floor of the train. Then the hazmat-suit guys arrive, and your whole day and probably the next four weeks are ruined.
Wednesday, February 26, 2020
Toy Gun Story
Germans are hyped up these days about private citizens and any suggestion of an illegal firearm in their possession.
So yesterday (Tuesday), over in my local town (Wiesbaden)....some gal called the local police.
She was all disturbed over seeing a gun 'hanging' on the wall of an apartment in town. The impression I get....is that she kinda viewed it from a distance, from another apartment.
She was hyped up. She called the police. The police? They got all hyped up. A search warrant was issued and signed by the local judge.
A police team was dispatched over to the apartment building, and knocked on the door.....with the warrant produced for the occupant.
The gun on the wall? A toy gun.
No one says much how the cops reacted, and I'm guessing they were laughing all way to the squad car, and back at the station....they retold this impressive story of a weapons search.
So this is the thing.....the news media has hyped up weapons so much now....that any report of an illegal weapon.....gets an immediate reaction by the police.
So yesterday (Tuesday), over in my local town (Wiesbaden)....some gal called the local police.
She was all disturbed over seeing a gun 'hanging' on the wall of an apartment in town. The impression I get....is that she kinda viewed it from a distance, from another apartment.
She was hyped up. She called the police. The police? They got all hyped up. A search warrant was issued and signed by the local judge.
A police team was dispatched over to the apartment building, and knocked on the door.....with the warrant produced for the occupant.
The gun on the wall? A toy gun.
No one says much how the cops reacted, and I'm guessing they were laughing all way to the squad car, and back at the station....they retold this impressive story of a weapons search.
So this is the thing.....the news media has hyped up weapons so much now....that any report of an illegal weapon.....gets an immediate reaction by the police.
Virus Update
As of this morning (roughly 9 AM), Germany's Lufthansa airline has said all flights to China are suspended.
Focus says, at least fourteen of their long-distance aircraft are sitting on the ground.....with no flights planned. Losing money? No one says much but if you were doing the books on this.....they are probably losing hundreds of thousands per day, while the virus goes on.
Hiring freeze also in affect for Lufthansa.....they have no reason to fill empty billets, while this is going on.
Odds that this will go next to South Korean destinations? No one says anything but I would take a guess by this weekend....that will be the next step. You'll also start to hear some chatter on zero dividends expected for the stock, and some financial worries by employees if hours are cut drastically.
Focus says, at least fourteen of their long-distance aircraft are sitting on the ground.....with no flights planned. Losing money? No one says much but if you were doing the books on this.....they are probably losing hundreds of thousands per day, while the virus goes on.
Hiring freeze also in affect for Lufthansa.....they have no reason to fill empty billets, while this is going on.
Odds that this will go next to South Korean destinations? No one says anything but I would take a guess by this weekend....that will be the next step. You'll also start to hear some chatter on zero dividends expected for the stock, and some financial worries by employees if hours are cut drastically.
Tuesday, February 25, 2020
Germany and COVID-19 Virus Update
Late yesterday, via a number of news sites....two more cases popped up. The original 'cluster' was in Bavaria, and went back to a Chinese business associate who flew over for a 3-day conference.
In this new update, there are two separate cases being added.
This first one is from the NW of the country, and involves a German who has a friend who went to China recently. This guy now shows the symptoms, and they suspect his wife will pop up shortly with symptoms.
The second case is a Baden-Wuerttemberg German, who went recently down into Milan, Italy. In this guy's case (25 years old), he is in a severe medical condition.
So far, there has not been a huge wave (like you see in northern Italy) with people affected and villages shut-down. There is talk of plans being assembled here in Germany....no one is sure about how they would work.
The magic number at present in Germany? 18. Based on the Italy situation, I would probably suggest another hundred being added being added by the closure of next week. That will probably start up significant worries.
The one thing I can point out......the whole grocery industry of Germany is based upon things being delivered each morning by a truck from some central 'depot'. You might have five or six pallets.....you might have twenty pallets. Later, some drink delivery guy will come by with a hundred-odd cases of beer, soda or water. It's called the 'just-in-time' delivery strategy. No one keeps a big warehouse for the store reserves.
If you had a warehouse operation shut-down because half the staff were sick....or half the drivers out because of the virus, then deliveries don't occur, and shelving starts to look bare, which triggers the public to worry.
Add to this scenario.....Germans are used to doing five to ten item grocery shopping. So maybe three days a week, they might stop off on the way home, and pick up small bag of groceries.
If you asked most Germans, they would admit that they have around a five-day supply of food in the house. A few might have an extended stock.....to last up to ten-to-twelve days.
In this new update, there are two separate cases being added.
This first one is from the NW of the country, and involves a German who has a friend who went to China recently. This guy now shows the symptoms, and they suspect his wife will pop up shortly with symptoms.
The second case is a Baden-Wuerttemberg German, who went recently down into Milan, Italy. In this guy's case (25 years old), he is in a severe medical condition.
So far, there has not been a huge wave (like you see in northern Italy) with people affected and villages shut-down. There is talk of plans being assembled here in Germany....no one is sure about how they would work.
The magic number at present in Germany? 18. Based on the Italy situation, I would probably suggest another hundred being added being added by the closure of next week. That will probably start up significant worries.
The one thing I can point out......the whole grocery industry of Germany is based upon things being delivered each morning by a truck from some central 'depot'. You might have five or six pallets.....you might have twenty pallets. Later, some drink delivery guy will come by with a hundred-odd cases of beer, soda or water. It's called the 'just-in-time' delivery strategy. No one keeps a big warehouse for the store reserves.
If you had a warehouse operation shut-down because half the staff were sick....or half the drivers out because of the virus, then deliveries don't occur, and shelving starts to look bare, which triggers the public to worry.
Add to this scenario.....Germans are used to doing five to ten item grocery shopping. So maybe three days a week, they might stop off on the way home, and pick up small bag of groceries.
If you asked most Germans, they would admit that they have around a five-day supply of food in the house. A few might have an extended stock.....to last up to ten-to-twelve days.
Wind-Generator Update
There's to be a push (if you can call it that) by the German federal government over the distance between a wind-generator and local communities. However, it's an odd push.
ZDF (Channel Two of public TV) reports this.
The deal is that the federal government will allow each state (16 of them) to decide if the minimum of distance is 1,000 meters. This would be 6/10ths of a mile or 3,300 feet.
So you could end up with six states setting it at 1,000 meters, nine states at 1,500 meters, and one state at 2,000 meters. The lack of a national standard will make this a tough situation for wind-generating companies to see a financial success formula.
Will this resolve anything? No. Most of the anti-wind-generator groups are focused on various other issues, and will use legal means to harm the placement of future generators.
One might take the humble guess that as the older generators are life-cycled over the next decade.....you will see half the generators around country disappear. The goal of wind being the big dynamic of the power grid? It's come and gone.
ZDF (Channel Two of public TV) reports this.
The deal is that the federal government will allow each state (16 of them) to decide if the minimum of distance is 1,000 meters. This would be 6/10ths of a mile or 3,300 feet.
So you could end up with six states setting it at 1,000 meters, nine states at 1,500 meters, and one state at 2,000 meters. The lack of a national standard will make this a tough situation for wind-generating companies to see a financial success formula.
Will this resolve anything? No. Most of the anti-wind-generator groups are focused on various other issues, and will use legal means to harm the placement of future generators.
One might take the humble guess that as the older generators are life-cycled over the next decade.....you will see half the generators around country disappear. The goal of wind being the big dynamic of the power grid? It's come and gone.
Volkmarsen Update
Authorities are updating the episode in Volkmarsen (here in Hessen) from a few days ago, where the driver went into a crowd of people. Still at this point.....no deaths, just injuries. The number is up to around 61, with twenty of them being kids.
Focus reports today that the guy has not been questioned yet (this comes from Tuesday evening). They aren't saying why the delay, but I suspect that he's a bit drugged up.
Some other comments suggest the guy had never held any employment (he was 29), and mostly just a druggie (suggesting his parents gave him enough to cover expenses and drugs).
The suggestion of right-wing extremism? It basically got thrown out there, and nothing supports it.
This is a town of roughly 6,000 residents, and what local said was that roughly a hundred folks from the region are hardcore druggies. In the end, they may find there is no motivation for the harmful act, it was just drug-induced fury, and then what?
You can look around most German communities now and note various druggies existing. Some use petty crime to survive....some get enough cash from their parents or the government (via welfare). As much as they are hyped up to take down right-wing extremism....there just isn't any hype to take down the druggie scene or correct this behavior of society.
Focus reports today that the guy has not been questioned yet (this comes from Tuesday evening). They aren't saying why the delay, but I suspect that he's a bit drugged up.
Some other comments suggest the guy had never held any employment (he was 29), and mostly just a druggie (suggesting his parents gave him enough to cover expenses and drugs).
The suggestion of right-wing extremism? It basically got thrown out there, and nothing supports it.
This is a town of roughly 6,000 residents, and what local said was that roughly a hundred folks from the region are hardcore druggies. In the end, they may find there is no motivation for the harmful act, it was just drug-induced fury, and then what?
You can look around most German communities now and note various druggies existing. Some use petty crime to survive....some get enough cash from their parents or the government (via welfare). As much as they are hyped up to take down right-wing extremism....there just isn't any hype to take down the druggie scene or correct this behavior of society.
1,000 Guests Quarantined?
Yes.
So what the German press is saying in general....some Italian doctor went on a holiday vacation to Tenerife (a Spanish isle off the coast of Africa, and known for beachfront hotels).
It appears around the 5th day there, he decided that these flu-like symptoms that he was now showing.....warranted a visit to a doctor. Test comes back.....Coronavirus.
Spanish authorities step in, and put this guy into isolation at some region hospital on the island (equipped for this).
Then they went to the hotel and said.....you 1,000 guests are now quarantined until each of you have been tested. Yep, cops swarmed in and put up barriers, and they are pretty serious about this.
The curious thing.....is that there was simply a note pushed under each hotel room door.....saying you couldn't leave the room until you were notified. Nothing was said about the virus, and you had to resort to the internet to find out what the whole deal was about.
The talk in the UK today? They are actually talking about a mandatory isolation for every single person returning from an affected country. It's hard to imagine how this would work, or where they would push people into some compound-like situation. Even the suggestion of home-isolation for three to five days....how would you make that work?
I would suggest we are fairly close (within 30 days) to mandatory air travel shut-down situation for a month long period across the globe.
So what the German press is saying in general....some Italian doctor went on a holiday vacation to Tenerife (a Spanish isle off the coast of Africa, and known for beachfront hotels).
It appears around the 5th day there, he decided that these flu-like symptoms that he was now showing.....warranted a visit to a doctor. Test comes back.....Coronavirus.
Spanish authorities step in, and put this guy into isolation at some region hospital on the island (equipped for this).
Then they went to the hotel and said.....you 1,000 guests are now quarantined until each of you have been tested. Yep, cops swarmed in and put up barriers, and they are pretty serious about this.
The curious thing.....is that there was simply a note pushed under each hotel room door.....saying you couldn't leave the room until you were notified. Nothing was said about the virus, and you had to resort to the internet to find out what the whole deal was about.
The talk in the UK today? They are actually talking about a mandatory isolation for every single person returning from an affected country. It's hard to imagine how this would work, or where they would push people into some compound-like situation. Even the suggestion of home-isolation for three to five days....how would you make that work?
I would suggest we are fairly close (within 30 days) to mandatory air travel shut-down situation for a month long period across the globe.
So Who Was the Second Person Arrested at the Volkmarsen Incident Yesterday?
With the crash into the parade participants in Volkmarsen yesterday.....two folks were arrested by the police.
The first guy is the driver of the Mercedes.....who was apparently lit up on alcohol, and test results are still being accomplished on the suggestion of drugs. I have my doubts that this will be part of the end-story.
The second guy? Well....this gets interesting. He was just a bystander, taking video of the aftermath. The police are using the 'gaffer' law, to arrest or detain anyone who take pictures in accident situations. This guy....probably will get some minor jail-time, for taking pictures.
I know....pretty stupid, but this is Germany in 2020. So my advice....if you are ever in some emergency situation in Germany, where people might be banged up or injured or dead....DO NOT take out your camera or cellphone to take pictures of the scene. Walk away, as far away as possible, and don't look back to take any departing images.
The first guy is the driver of the Mercedes.....who was apparently lit up on alcohol, and test results are still being accomplished on the suggestion of drugs. I have my doubts that this will be part of the end-story.
The second guy? Well....this gets interesting. He was just a bystander, taking video of the aftermath. The police are using the 'gaffer' law, to arrest or detain anyone who take pictures in accident situations. This guy....probably will get some minor jail-time, for taking pictures.
I know....pretty stupid, but this is Germany in 2020. So my advice....if you are ever in some emergency situation in Germany, where people might be banged up or injured or dead....DO NOT take out your camera or cellphone to take pictures of the scene. Walk away, as far away as possible, and don't look back to take any departing images.
Virus Chatter
There is a public discussion which kinda started up yesterday.....under the subject area of Austria stopping an Italian train from entry until all occupants had been examined. This also involved two ladies on the train (Germans) who had fever and coughs.....but were just plain regular flu....NOT the Coronavirus. So the discussion is.....who exactly in Germany could conduct the same halt and bar sick people from entry into Germany.
The general consensus is that the public health authorities could do this, but some people suggest that the number of such authorities isn't enough to lock down the rail and bus network of Germany. 3,714 km's of border exist.
One might go and take a humble guess that there are a minimum of 1,000 trains per day which cross the border.....some are ICE-related (high speed)....some are regional trains which cross over into the neighboring country.
The bus network? It's probably in the range of 500 buses per day. On a typical Friday evening to Sunday evening....there's probably at least 300 buses additional buses making the crossing with tourists returning home.
This opens up a whole big discussion because the German health authorities weren't built or geared toward some massive country-wide situation. Even if you activated parts of the Bundeswehr (the German army)....it wouldn't be of the number required.
So what happens? I suspect that the news media will wake up and realize that hyping the virus....does not really help much. Some isolation efforts will occur with smaller villages on some lock-down. Locking down Frankfurt or Berlin? I just can't see this happening, and the locals cooperating with the order.
The general consensus is that the public health authorities could do this, but some people suggest that the number of such authorities isn't enough to lock down the rail and bus network of Germany. 3,714 km's of border exist.
One might go and take a humble guess that there are a minimum of 1,000 trains per day which cross the border.....some are ICE-related (high speed)....some are regional trains which cross over into the neighboring country.
The bus network? It's probably in the range of 500 buses per day. On a typical Friday evening to Sunday evening....there's probably at least 300 buses additional buses making the crossing with tourists returning home.
This opens up a whole big discussion because the German health authorities weren't built or geared toward some massive country-wide situation. Even if you activated parts of the Bundeswehr (the German army)....it wouldn't be of the number required.
So what happens? I suspect that the news media will wake up and realize that hyping the virus....does not really help much. Some isolation efforts will occur with smaller villages on some lock-down. Locking down Frankfurt or Berlin? I just can't see this happening, and the locals cooperating with the order.
Monday, February 24, 2020
Volkmarsen Accident
About 120 km NE of Frankfurt is the small town of Volkmarsen. They had a parade today (yes, as bad as the weather was)......and in the midst of this.....some guy ran his car into a crowd. No one dead but around 30 of them hurt bad.
Driver? Well....29-year-old German guy, who had a slight police record.....mostly over disorderly behavior, and insults (toward the police apparently). No, he was not some terrorist or nutcase. Based on crowd commentary.....the guy was fairly loaded on booze.
Charges? He could be looking at a minimum of 30 charges, and a minimum of 20 years in prison.
UPDATE: 25 Feb 2020: regional news says alcohol test on the driver came back negative.....no booze in his system.
UPDATE: 25 Feb 2020: Focus says this afternoon that this driver was noted in the drug scene of Volkmarsen, for at least the past 18 months. That kinda suggests that this drug test might come back with positive results.
Driver? Well....29-year-old German guy, who had a slight police record.....mostly over disorderly behavior, and insults (toward the police apparently). No, he was not some terrorist or nutcase. Based on crowd commentary.....the guy was fairly loaded on booze.
Charges? He could be looking at a minimum of 30 charges, and a minimum of 20 years in prison.
UPDATE: 25 Feb 2020: regional news says alcohol test on the driver came back negative.....no booze in his system.
UPDATE: 25 Feb 2020: Focus says this afternoon that this driver was noted in the drug scene of Volkmarsen, for at least the past 18 months. That kinda suggests that this drug test might come back with positive results.
Germany and Covid-19 Virus
It was supposed to be a German government official giving a positive message over the virus, and what confronts Germany.
What Jens Spahn (the Health Minister) said was that German cities could be sealed off (noting in theory). Then he added, such a step isn't seen necessary right now.
The following quote was added: "We always respond appropriately and proportionately."
Mass quarantine in a city like Frankfurt or Koln? I'd suggest that it'd be practically impossible and the most you could do is maybe seven days of this.
There's the problem of food, shut-down business operations, enough city authorities to make this work, and the issue of Germans obeying the directive (if given).
In a city like Frankfurt, you've got probably around 4,000 individuals who walk the streets for drug trafficking daily.
Could you even shut down the Frankfurt train station entirely? Or the local airport?
On the positive side....from the host of political folks that could occupy this important position....Spahn is probably the five-star choice and better than 99-percent of the other possible characters.
Do the Germans even have the possibility of taking sick folks in mass numbers and putting them into some immediate site like the Chinese built? I kinda doubt it.
It'll be curious how this develops now.
What Jens Spahn (the Health Minister) said was that German cities could be sealed off (noting in theory). Then he added, such a step isn't seen necessary right now.
The following quote was added: "We always respond appropriately and proportionately."
Mass quarantine in a city like Frankfurt or Koln? I'd suggest that it'd be practically impossible and the most you could do is maybe seven days of this.
There's the problem of food, shut-down business operations, enough city authorities to make this work, and the issue of Germans obeying the directive (if given).
In a city like Frankfurt, you've got probably around 4,000 individuals who walk the streets for drug trafficking daily.
Could you even shut down the Frankfurt train station entirely? Or the local airport?
On the positive side....from the host of political folks that could occupy this important position....Spahn is probably the five-star choice and better than 99-percent of the other possible characters.
Do the Germans even have the possibility of taking sick folks in mass numbers and putting them into some immediate site like the Chinese built? I kinda doubt it.
It'll be curious how this develops now.
Quarantine Story
This story popped up on several German and Italian news sites this afternoon, and it's still in a flexible situation.
As you might know....there's been some Coronavirus (COVO-19) outbreak in northern Italy, around the Veneto and Lombardy area.
As some of you might know....there's this wonderful tropical island out off the coast of Africa, in the Pacific Ocean....called Mauritius. For reference, flying out of Rome, it's a 15-hour flight, with a minimum of one stop.
A lot of Germans and Italians fly down to Mauritius, typically for a week or two of sun and beach-fun.
Well....the plane from Rome (Alitalia) pulled in this morning, and they held everyone onboard the plane.
Then some type of review occurred.....mostly with passport control.
Then at the end of this.....the officials from Mauritius said one of two things would occur with Italians from the Veneto or Lombardy area: (1) you'd come off and agree to a period of quarantine. No one has said if this was seven or fourteen days, or if you could do this quarantine at your four-star hotel. The second option (2): you'd stay on the Alitalia plane and return to Italy.
Folks affected? About forty.
You can imagine this scene. Little is said by the reporters or officials. My humble guess is that no one from the group will volunteer for quarantine unless they were guaranteed the hotel for the whole fourteen days (as they had paid already for the trip).
But this ought bring you to some pondering points. If you were among the forty and had the virus.....it might be two weeks before it displayed itself. But you could have easily passed it on the 15-hour flight....to the other 160-odd people on the plane. So they'd have it or the symptoms in a week or so.
Adding to this.....do you really want to sit on this plane for the next two hours....to return to Italy, and spend 15 hours in return status?
The hotel reservation that you shoved 3,000 Euro down upon? Wasted or gone.
Just how peeved would you be? And massive destruction to the resort Mauritius situation? I could see thousands of Italians calling up and asking stupid questions now, then cancelling their trips.
Something about to flatten the entire travel market in the next three months? It would not surprise me if suddenly you have twenty countries with full-up denial of flights for an entire month.
As you might know....there's been some Coronavirus (COVO-19) outbreak in northern Italy, around the Veneto and Lombardy area.
As some of you might know....there's this wonderful tropical island out off the coast of Africa, in the Pacific Ocean....called Mauritius. For reference, flying out of Rome, it's a 15-hour flight, with a minimum of one stop.
A lot of Germans and Italians fly down to Mauritius, typically for a week or two of sun and beach-fun.
Well....the plane from Rome (Alitalia) pulled in this morning, and they held everyone onboard the plane.
Then some type of review occurred.....mostly with passport control.
Then at the end of this.....the officials from Mauritius said one of two things would occur with Italians from the Veneto or Lombardy area: (1) you'd come off and agree to a period of quarantine. No one has said if this was seven or fourteen days, or if you could do this quarantine at your four-star hotel. The second option (2): you'd stay on the Alitalia plane and return to Italy.
Folks affected? About forty.
You can imagine this scene. Little is said by the reporters or officials. My humble guess is that no one from the group will volunteer for quarantine unless they were guaranteed the hotel for the whole fourteen days (as they had paid already for the trip).
But this ought bring you to some pondering points. If you were among the forty and had the virus.....it might be two weeks before it displayed itself. But you could have easily passed it on the 15-hour flight....to the other 160-odd people on the plane. So they'd have it or the symptoms in a week or so.
Adding to this.....do you really want to sit on this plane for the next two hours....to return to Italy, and spend 15 hours in return status?
The hotel reservation that you shoved 3,000 Euro down upon? Wasted or gone.
Just how peeved would you be? And massive destruction to the resort Mauritius situation? I could see thousands of Italians calling up and asking stupid questions now, then cancelling their trips.
Something about to flatten the entire travel market in the next three months? It would not surprise me if suddenly you have twenty countries with full-up denial of flights for an entire month.
Germany and Masks
Germany is one of those places where you typically DON'T see people wearing facial masks in public. When you do see folks wearing them....it's typically Asian folks on vacation in Germany.
So the topic came up via ZDF (public TV, Channel Two) today.
They noted that a trend has started up in the German public where regular Germans are wearing the masks.
They've also noted that the masks have been sold out in most German pharmacies over the past week or two.
So this brought up an interesting side-subject....the spokesman for the German Association of German Pharmacists' Associations (ABDA) stood up in the past week and said the majority of masks on sale in Germany would NOT offer any real protection against the new virus anyway.
Cost escalating? That's another topic as well. A typical kit of N-95 masks would have fetched (Five in a box) for around 40 Euro six months ago. Today, it's near 65 to 85 Euro per box. Same for the cheaper surgerical masks (no real protection for this type of situation)....they've gone from 20-odd Euro for a box of fifty masks, to 39 Euro in a matter of a month.
If you'd stocked up on a ten-thousand of these cheapo mask boxes (50 per box) back six months ago, you'd clear a small fortune now.
So the topic came up via ZDF (public TV, Channel Two) today.
They noted that a trend has started up in the German public where regular Germans are wearing the masks.
They've also noted that the masks have been sold out in most German pharmacies over the past week or two.
So this brought up an interesting side-subject....the spokesman for the German Association of German Pharmacists' Associations (ABDA) stood up in the past week and said the majority of masks on sale in Germany would NOT offer any real protection against the new virus anyway.
Cost escalating? That's another topic as well. A typical kit of N-95 masks would have fetched (Five in a box) for around 40 Euro six months ago. Today, it's near 65 to 85 Euro per box. Same for the cheaper surgerical masks (no real protection for this type of situation)....they've gone from 20-odd Euro for a box of fifty masks, to 39 Euro in a matter of a month.
If you'd stocked up on a ten-thousand of these cheapo mask boxes (50 per box) back six months ago, you'd clear a small fortune now.
Another Odd Thing on the Hanau Shooter
This got brought up over the weekend by HR (Hessen public TV).
This 'nutcase' (my word, not theirs)....had actually filed a criminal complaint with a German federal prosecutor back in the late fall of 2019 (November).
The complaint?
He suggested that a unknown secret intelligence group was 'clicking' into the brains of people, and controlling them to some extent....to achieve dominance in world events.
The complaint? It just kinda sat there. No one says the number of these type of cases....but if you counted the police reports and the prosecutor complaints here in Germany, it probably gets into several thousand that deal with aliens, UFOs, ESP, bigfoot, etc...each year.
Once they'd received the report....if they had acted? Logically (at least on the way that Germans think).....this should have alerted some local department to detain the guy, notice he had a gun license, and then move him into a facility for a mental exam. Well....Germans actually believe that type of action should have occurred.
All of this....demonstrating severe paranoid schizophrenia? Yeah.
But the police spokesperson for Hanau made this statement. With the thousands of laws and instructions that exist today in Germany......he noted none really cover the control of people who are nut-cases (my word, not theirs). If a guy crosses the line and is a physical threat.....that's different, and the police can act in that case.
Will this get attention and some political agenda start up on detaining nutty Germans? It's hard to say. If you use the general standard of seven folks out of a thousand being paranoid schizophrenic types.....you'd be looking at half-a-million Germans who'd need to be reviewed in a serious way. Where would you house these people and to what extent will you control them?
This 'nutcase' (my word, not theirs)....had actually filed a criminal complaint with a German federal prosecutor back in the late fall of 2019 (November).
The complaint?
He suggested that a unknown secret intelligence group was 'clicking' into the brains of people, and controlling them to some extent....to achieve dominance in world events.
The complaint? It just kinda sat there. No one says the number of these type of cases....but if you counted the police reports and the prosecutor complaints here in Germany, it probably gets into several thousand that deal with aliens, UFOs, ESP, bigfoot, etc...each year.
Once they'd received the report....if they had acted? Logically (at least on the way that Germans think).....this should have alerted some local department to detain the guy, notice he had a gun license, and then move him into a facility for a mental exam. Well....Germans actually believe that type of action should have occurred.
All of this....demonstrating severe paranoid schizophrenia? Yeah.
But the police spokesperson for Hanau made this statement. With the thousands of laws and instructions that exist today in Germany......he noted none really cover the control of people who are nut-cases (my word, not theirs). If a guy crosses the line and is a physical threat.....that's different, and the police can act in that case.
Will this get attention and some political agenda start up on detaining nutty Germans? It's hard to say. If you use the general standard of seven folks out of a thousand being paranoid schizophrenic types.....you'd be looking at half-a-million Germans who'd need to be reviewed in a serious way. Where would you house these people and to what extent will you control them?
International Train Passengers Being Reviewed?
Well, this is what N-TV said about an incident over the weekend.
Austria halted a Brenner Pass train exiting Italy. They came onboard and did a medical check of passengers.
Two women had a slightly elevated fever and a cough. No one says the nationality of the two. The 'audit' people alerted on the two.
Tests were done, while forcing the train to sit there. Around four to five hours later.....the tests say no virus (probably just plain regular flu). Then they allowed the train to proceed on.
Likely to be a regular event? This is the problem that no one has openly discussed in Germany or the EU.
If you counted all the cross-border train trips on an average day, it's probably up to around a thousand. Stopping a ICE-train (the high speed railway)? People pay a significant amount of money to ride the train, and adding four hours onto it....won't be accepted that easily.
The other problem I see.....if you halted a train with 90 seats occupied in a car, and two folks get identified as having a fever and cough.....do you seriously think that 88 other folks on that car, or 300 additional passengers on the train....will just sit there for four hours, waiting on this stupid test to come back? I'd be the first guy off that train, and walking away.
Tests being done at airports? Not yet, but I can imagine within three weeks.....we will be at that stage, and it'll freak out passengers.
Applying self-quarantine rules? Watch production cycles slow down rapidly. Ask the your local McDonalds manager how he can manage a 9-man shift, with only three people showing up. Ask the Bahn railway folks how they can handle 30-percent of their personnel on some self-quarantine situation. Ask the ARD nightly news folks how they'd handle the schedule with 50-percent of their folks on some self-quarantined situation.
I see a bigger mess coming by mid-April.
Austria halted a Brenner Pass train exiting Italy. They came onboard and did a medical check of passengers.
Two women had a slightly elevated fever and a cough. No one says the nationality of the two. The 'audit' people alerted on the two.
Tests were done, while forcing the train to sit there. Around four to five hours later.....the tests say no virus (probably just plain regular flu). Then they allowed the train to proceed on.
Likely to be a regular event? This is the problem that no one has openly discussed in Germany or the EU.
If you counted all the cross-border train trips on an average day, it's probably up to around a thousand. Stopping a ICE-train (the high speed railway)? People pay a significant amount of money to ride the train, and adding four hours onto it....won't be accepted that easily.
The other problem I see.....if you halted a train with 90 seats occupied in a car, and two folks get identified as having a fever and cough.....do you seriously think that 88 other folks on that car, or 300 additional passengers on the train....will just sit there for four hours, waiting on this stupid test to come back? I'd be the first guy off that train, and walking away.
Tests being done at airports? Not yet, but I can imagine within three weeks.....we will be at that stage, and it'll freak out passengers.
Applying self-quarantine rules? Watch production cycles slow down rapidly. Ask the your local McDonalds manager how he can manage a 9-man shift, with only three people showing up. Ask the Bahn railway folks how they can handle 30-percent of their personnel on some self-quarantine situation. Ask the ARD nightly news folks how they'd handle the schedule with 50-percent of their folks on some self-quarantined situation.
I see a bigger mess coming by mid-April.
Sunday, February 23, 2020
Hamburg Results
The state election in Hamburg ended at 6 PM......results are out:
SPD: 39-percent (a downward level of 8.1 percent since the last election. Officially, the winner.
CDU: 11.5 (4.4 points less than the election in 2015)
Green Party: 25.5 percent (up around a dozen points).....really pulling off a big increase of enthusiasm in the city.
FDP Party: 5-percent (losing 2.5 point since the last election.
Linke Party: 9-percent....unchanged since the last election.
AfD Party (far-right): 5.3-percent. Their numbers improved through the night as counts were completed....so they will have enough votes to get seats in the assembly.
6.8-percent of those who voted.....went to minor parties with no real potential.
Forming a coalition? There three three possibilities with the SPD, and they will likely have no problem (likely to be finished within four to six weeks).
The real take-away? The SPD has taken a win but shows major problems since the last election. Nationally, it's a hard position to be in.
SPD: 39-percent (a downward level of 8.1 percent since the last election. Officially, the winner.
CDU: 11.5 (4.4 points less than the election in 2015)
Green Party: 25.5 percent (up around a dozen points).....really pulling off a big increase of enthusiasm in the city.
FDP Party: 5-percent (losing 2.5 point since the last election.
Linke Party: 9-percent....unchanged since the last election.
AfD Party (far-right): 5.3-percent. Their numbers improved through the night as counts were completed....so they will have enough votes to get seats in the assembly.
6.8-percent of those who voted.....went to minor parties with no real potential.
Forming a coalition? There three three possibilities with the SPD, and they will likely have no problem (likely to be finished within four to six weeks).
The real take-away? The SPD has taken a win but shows major problems since the last election. Nationally, it's a hard position to be in.
One Similarity With the Hanau Shooter
This came up in the morning news here in Germany, via several news group. This Hanau shooter (10 dead, plus himself)......had a 24-page manifesto.
There are thousands of manifestos written yearly, mostly by PhD-type intellectuals, and they deal with various topics (from harbor operations, to wealth redistribution).
Most manifesto-writers don't end up in a death situation.....although in the past decade, you can make a case that most mass shooters have some type of manifesto that they've written.
'Mein Kampf' as a manifesto? Yes.
The 'Fascist Manifesto' in 1919 as a manifesto? Yes.
The 'Anarchist Manifesto' in 1850 as a manifesto? Yes.
These all led to increased violence and death.
Open source publishing to this particular manifesto? I kinda doubt that the Germans will allow this, and it'll mainly get passed around with some political folks and police leadership.
There are thousands of manifestos written yearly, mostly by PhD-type intellectuals, and they deal with various topics (from harbor operations, to wealth redistribution).
Most manifesto-writers don't end up in a death situation.....although in the past decade, you can make a case that most mass shooters have some type of manifesto that they've written.
'Mein Kampf' as a manifesto? Yes.
The 'Fascist Manifesto' in 1919 as a manifesto? Yes.
The 'Anarchist Manifesto' in 1850 as a manifesto? Yes.
These all led to increased violence and death.
Open source publishing to this particular manifesto? I kinda doubt that the Germans will allow this, and it'll mainly get passed around with some political folks and police leadership.
Saturday, February 22, 2020
Psychological Exam Story
Since the Hanau shooting a few days ago, there's been a lot of hype over how to prevent such events in the future.
So the one big idea openly discussed now, and noted by MDR in a public news piece.....is psychological examinations.
To this idea.....the Minister of the Interior (Horst Seehofer, CSU), talked about having mental tests as a requirement to own a gun.
This would be some 'stamp of approval' that you weren't a nutcase, or a general threat to the public.
An added step in the process? Maybe, but then you'd have to wonder how this would work....the questions asked in the interview, and if this was easily defeated.
The other curious thing.....a person could have some trauma-event, and go from sane status one day.....to a totally different status a month later.
The odds of this psychological exam business occurring? I'd put it at a 90-percent chance.
Course, you might start to wonder....if Johann shows up for his gun license interview, and miserably fails....showing that he's really not trustworthy in any sort of way....would this doctor do the right thing and call the authorities to put the guy away, or just let him fail the exam and walk out the door?
So the one big idea openly discussed now, and noted by MDR in a public news piece.....is psychological examinations.
To this idea.....the Minister of the Interior (Horst Seehofer, CSU), talked about having mental tests as a requirement to own a gun.
This would be some 'stamp of approval' that you weren't a nutcase, or a general threat to the public.
An added step in the process? Maybe, but then you'd have to wonder how this would work....the questions asked in the interview, and if this was easily defeated.
The other curious thing.....a person could have some trauma-event, and go from sane status one day.....to a totally different status a month later.
The odds of this psychological exam business occurring? I'd put it at a 90-percent chance.
Course, you might start to wonder....if Johann shows up for his gun license interview, and miserably fails....showing that he's really not trustworthy in any sort of way....would this doctor do the right thing and call the authorities to put the guy away, or just let him fail the exam and walk out the door?
Friday, February 21, 2020
What Disinhibition Means
If you watched around German news last night (Thursday), the chief topic was the Hanau shooting, the link to right-wing extremism, and how people need to reflect upon supporting the AfD....thus coming to their senses for the regular parties.
The word disinhibition came up.....often.
It generally means that you lack restraint. In terms of impulses, social behavior, and risks....you go to the far extreme on these issues. You assume risks of a fairly significant nature. You act on impulses without thinking of consequences. You frown on accepted social behavior , and go against the 'tide'. In general, your perception of events might not agree with 95-percent of the general public.
How to explain disinhibition occurring in some individual?
This usually leads to four things:
1. You had some accident and bumped your head....thus getting a concussion and maybe brain damage.
2. You are prone to misinterpreting things (a lot). You see a situation occur, and 99-percent of people would act this way.....while you go the opposite way.
3. You get provoked to such a degree.....that acting normal won't work. A good example of this is a guy who has been robbed on the Metro six times in the past three years, and he starts to carry a pistol to shoot the next person to attempt a robbery.
4. Loneliness. You go to the impulse situation just to be different.
As for this guy in Hanau? This guy appears to fit into #3 and #4. On the provoked side, I might suggest more paranoid schizophrenia existing than anything else. This guy wasn't a full-up nutcase, but he was beginning to show indicators of schizophrenia.
But this whole use of the term disinhibition for pushing people to leave their purpose of voting for the AfD? It's probably not going to work because none of the political parties opposing the AfD intend to change or modify their behavior on migration or asylum.
There's little doubt that the bulk of votes that the AfD Party gets in various elections....is frustration-votes. But to rectify frustration-votes, you have to actually go out and view the problem that drew them away, and then do something to show you changed or resolved the original problems. In this case? Doing nothing much.....proves you haven't changed much.
So this is all fake-disinhibition chatter? Yeah....more or less. This does sound good on TV or in forums, when intellectuals beg for your attention. But as you sit through the chatter....waiting for the evidence to come up that the other party modified their behavior...only to find nothing changed, then reality sits in.
It's a good fake political agenda to pick up and use, unless people wise up to your gimmick.
The word disinhibition came up.....often.
It generally means that you lack restraint. In terms of impulses, social behavior, and risks....you go to the far extreme on these issues. You assume risks of a fairly significant nature. You act on impulses without thinking of consequences. You frown on accepted social behavior , and go against the 'tide'. In general, your perception of events might not agree with 95-percent of the general public.
How to explain disinhibition occurring in some individual?
This usually leads to four things:
1. You had some accident and bumped your head....thus getting a concussion and maybe brain damage.
2. You are prone to misinterpreting things (a lot). You see a situation occur, and 99-percent of people would act this way.....while you go the opposite way.
3. You get provoked to such a degree.....that acting normal won't work. A good example of this is a guy who has been robbed on the Metro six times in the past three years, and he starts to carry a pistol to shoot the next person to attempt a robbery.
4. Loneliness. You go to the impulse situation just to be different.
As for this guy in Hanau? This guy appears to fit into #3 and #4. On the provoked side, I might suggest more paranoid schizophrenia existing than anything else. This guy wasn't a full-up nutcase, but he was beginning to show indicators of schizophrenia.
But this whole use of the term disinhibition for pushing people to leave their purpose of voting for the AfD? It's probably not going to work because none of the political parties opposing the AfD intend to change or modify their behavior on migration or asylum.
There's little doubt that the bulk of votes that the AfD Party gets in various elections....is frustration-votes. But to rectify frustration-votes, you have to actually go out and view the problem that drew them away, and then do something to show you changed or resolved the original problems. In this case? Doing nothing much.....proves you haven't changed much.
So this is all fake-disinhibition chatter? Yeah....more or less. This does sound good on TV or in forums, when intellectuals beg for your attention. But as you sit through the chatter....waiting for the evidence to come up that the other party modified their behavior...only to find nothing changed, then reality sits in.
It's a good fake political agenda to pick up and use, unless people wise up to your gimmick.
The Pension 'Mess'
I essayed a piece about a week ago over the new 'Basic Pension' and how the timeline is that it'll start up on 1 January 2021. You can go back to that essay and note the particulars of the deal.
In this essay, I'll chat over the chief problem with the schedule, and it goes to a N-TV news update this morning.
So the people who run the Deutsche Rentenversicherung (the German Social Security program) stood up and said something which really wasn't a shock. They say the scheduled date for the new pension deal....is faulty and can never be reached with the manpower and assets existing at present. Their prediction? They need two years to prepare for this....so it'd be closer to the end of 2021.
The organization even sent a letter to the Minister of Labor (Heil, SPD Party) to say that is the only realistic schedule possible.
In this letter, they hint very strongly that several thousand new positions are required within the agency, with the acquisition of a new building or rental space (in urban areas of each state)....to fill the operation required.
Even the technical knowledge to fulfill the obligation.....it's not there currently, and it'd require months to acquire.
The chief problem here? If you go and read through all the material about the wonder 'Basic Pension'.....it requires a test of every single retired guy/gal, and if they fit into the profile.....to get the extra Euro. In some cases.....you could be talking about a couple who currently get 950 Euro, and if they fit the test correctly....they'd be getting almost another 1,000 Euro.
Are the bureaucrats correct? Unfortunately, yes.
What happened here is that the SPD and CDU folks created a massive paperwork 'monster' that requires a financial wiz full view of a retired guy, his assets, his past, and then fit the profile to allow him/her the extra money. I could see a guy spending a minimum of two man-hours on just one single person. Challenges to the system? That's going to involve more man-hours.
Shouldn't this have been a simpler plan? You can argue that point, but it's too late now to suggest that.
My prediction? The schedule will be readjusted to October 2021....right around election time, and the bonus will be added to sweeten the delay.....all that money that theses people should have collected from January to September....put into one single check in October....giving them each potentially up to 9,000 Euro on one single day (max).
In this essay, I'll chat over the chief problem with the schedule, and it goes to a N-TV news update this morning.
So the people who run the Deutsche Rentenversicherung (the German Social Security program) stood up and said something which really wasn't a shock. They say the scheduled date for the new pension deal....is faulty and can never be reached with the manpower and assets existing at present. Their prediction? They need two years to prepare for this....so it'd be closer to the end of 2021.
The organization even sent a letter to the Minister of Labor (Heil, SPD Party) to say that is the only realistic schedule possible.
In this letter, they hint very strongly that several thousand new positions are required within the agency, with the acquisition of a new building or rental space (in urban areas of each state)....to fill the operation required.
Even the technical knowledge to fulfill the obligation.....it's not there currently, and it'd require months to acquire.
The chief problem here? If you go and read through all the material about the wonder 'Basic Pension'.....it requires a test of every single retired guy/gal, and if they fit into the profile.....to get the extra Euro. In some cases.....you could be talking about a couple who currently get 950 Euro, and if they fit the test correctly....they'd be getting almost another 1,000 Euro.
Are the bureaucrats correct? Unfortunately, yes.
What happened here is that the SPD and CDU folks created a massive paperwork 'monster' that requires a financial wiz full view of a retired guy, his assets, his past, and then fit the profile to allow him/her the extra money. I could see a guy spending a minimum of two man-hours on just one single person. Challenges to the system? That's going to involve more man-hours.
Shouldn't this have been a simpler plan? You can argue that point, but it's too late now to suggest that.
My prediction? The schedule will be readjusted to October 2021....right around election time, and the bonus will be added to sweeten the delay.....all that money that theses people should have collected from January to September....put into one single check in October....giving them each potentially up to 9,000 Euro on one single day (max).
Tesla Update
As of this morning, the Tesla site for the new plant in eastern Germany....is cleared to go. The halt by the court system for deforestation issues? That was pulled back (according to a N-TV update this morning).
The future site at Grünheide? What has been said for weeks now....is that when it's done and fully active....Tesla will make 500,000 electric cars a year there.
More protests? Oh, more than likely. But this really set the stage where the court system isn't going to sit on projects like this for months, and harm the prospects.
The future site at Grünheide? What has been said for weeks now....is that when it's done and fully active....Tesla will make 500,000 electric cars a year there.
More protests? Oh, more than likely. But this really set the stage where the court system isn't going to sit on projects like this for months, and harm the prospects.
Thursday, February 20, 2020
Public TV Story
German TV tax going up? Yep, from 17.50 a month to 18.36 Euro a month....per house.
Start date? 1 January 2021.
Period of affect? 2021 to 2024. Possibility of it going up after 2024? I'd put the odds at 100-percent.
What they draw yearly? Roughly in the 8-billion Euro range.
Hostility over this? I would make the estimate that one out of three Germans really aren't that happy over the increase, and would like some type of downsizing to occur, with the rest of the public either pro-public TV or simply neutral.
Start date? 1 January 2021.
Period of affect? 2021 to 2024. Possibility of it going up after 2024? I'd put the odds at 100-percent.
What they draw yearly? Roughly in the 8-billion Euro range.
Hostility over this? I would make the estimate that one out of three Germans really aren't that happy over the increase, and would like some type of downsizing to occur, with the rest of the public either pro-public TV or simply neutral.
Description of This German Mass Shooter
Focus, this morning, put a fairly decent description of this German guy who shot up Hanau last night (killing 9, plus his mother). I'll recommend the article.
A basic description?
Forty-three years old. Did bank and business training in his youth. Certainly not a loser or welfare case.
The neighbor describes the guy as 'regular', without any faults.
The guy was into conspiracy theory discussions, and showed indications (what I describe) as paranoia-type (thinking he was being watched).
The guy was fairly negative about Middle Eastern folks (to include Turks).
There's not much doubt that he views Germans as a generally superior 'race'.
At some point in his 'rants' on social media and YouTube.....he even suggests that Trump stole his ideas.
Focus has a complete description and worth the read.
My view.....the guy was on the verge of significant paranoid schizophrenia. I doubt if he was on any treatment or pill regiment.
If you looked across any country (doesn't matter if it's the US or Germany)....there's probably seven people out of a thousand....who ought to be under custodial care or heavily watched. This was one of those characters.
A basic description?
Forty-three years old. Did bank and business training in his youth. Certainly not a loser or welfare case.
The neighbor describes the guy as 'regular', without any faults.
The guy was into conspiracy theory discussions, and showed indications (what I describe) as paranoia-type (thinking he was being watched).
The guy was fairly negative about Middle Eastern folks (to include Turks).
There's not much doubt that he views Germans as a generally superior 'race'.
At some point in his 'rants' on social media and YouTube.....he even suggests that Trump stole his ideas.
Focus has a complete description and worth the read.
My view.....the guy was on the verge of significant paranoid schizophrenia. I doubt if he was on any treatment or pill regiment.
If you looked across any country (doesn't matter if it's the US or Germany)....there's probably seven people out of a thousand....who ought to be under custodial care or heavily watched. This was one of those characters.
Hanau Shooting Update
In the last hour....through various updates, some things now start to lay out the whole landscape.
Now, 11 dead (includes shooter and his mother).
Guy was a German. Has nothing to do with gang warfare.
Guy had a weapons license. He probably was reviewed for competency, but that might have been ten to twenty years ago.
Guy was known on the right-wing extremist scene.
Guy had a YouTube video out there around a week ago....talking over conspiracy theories and criticizing German integration and asylum episodes.
Some type of confession note has been found. Not much said by the police over that.
It's mostly a clean-up situation now, with authorities likely to start a new review of all gun license holders, and if they are 'safe'. The present and time-tested method was allowing the regular doctor judge your mental state. I'm guessing that will go away, and some review of social media usage will start up....to 'bless' you for a gun license in the future.
Now, 11 dead (includes shooter and his mother).
Guy was a German. Has nothing to do with gang warfare.
Guy had a weapons license. He probably was reviewed for competency, but that might have been ten to twenty years ago.
Guy was known on the right-wing extremist scene.
Guy had a YouTube video out there around a week ago....talking over conspiracy theories and criticizing German integration and asylum episodes.
Some type of confession note has been found. Not much said by the police over that.
It's mostly a clean-up situation now, with authorities likely to start a new review of all gun license holders, and if they are 'safe'. The present and time-tested method was allowing the regular doctor judge your mental state. I'm guessing that will go away, and some review of social media usage will start up....to 'bless' you for a gun license in the future.
Effect of Thuringia 'Relationship' Coming Up in Mecklenburg?
As the smoke is settling in Thuringia and it appears marginally likely that the Linke Party will form a coalition government with the CDU Party (under some stringent settings)....you are left with this odd 'taste' in your mouth.
There was this absolute rule in CDU circles for the past thirty years.....no political coalition situations with the Linke Party (far-left). Now? It appears abandoned.
So in March of 2021....there's a state election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (the German state to the far NE of the country.....which starts just east of Hamburg and extends to the Polish border).
The likely winner of this election? No real polls out at this point, and it's a long way away....but in 2016....the AfD Party (the far-right folks) won 2nd place with 21-percent of the vote. They've improved their public agenda business since then.
My humble belief is that they could take around 32-percent in this election. The Greens, SPD and Linke Parties will likely take near 12-to-15-percent each. And the CDU will be lucky to walk away with 20-to-24 percent of the vote.
So would the AfD folks form a government with the CDU in that case? The general no-alliance-with-the-AfD rule? Once you open up the box and say it's possible to align with the Linke Party.....it opens up broad questions.
It's already going to be discouraging for some CDU folks to find a logical middle-ground with the Linke....but to find another logical middle-ground with the AfD? It's just going to frustrate a bunch of moderate CDU-type voters. I could see a quarter of them standing there for the October 2021 national election and just saying that the CDU Party is not something they can support.
Settle back for an adventurous period approaching this Mecklenburg election.
There was this absolute rule in CDU circles for the past thirty years.....no political coalition situations with the Linke Party (far-left). Now? It appears abandoned.
So in March of 2021....there's a state election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (the German state to the far NE of the country.....which starts just east of Hamburg and extends to the Polish border).
The likely winner of this election? No real polls out at this point, and it's a long way away....but in 2016....the AfD Party (the far-right folks) won 2nd place with 21-percent of the vote. They've improved their public agenda business since then.
My humble belief is that they could take around 32-percent in this election. The Greens, SPD and Linke Parties will likely take near 12-to-15-percent each. And the CDU will be lucky to walk away with 20-to-24 percent of the vote.
So would the AfD folks form a government with the CDU in that case? The general no-alliance-with-the-AfD rule? Once you open up the box and say it's possible to align with the Linke Party.....it opens up broad questions.
It's already going to be discouraging for some CDU folks to find a logical middle-ground with the Linke....but to find another logical middle-ground with the AfD? It's just going to frustrate a bunch of moderate CDU-type voters. I could see a quarter of them standing there for the October 2021 national election and just saying that the CDU Party is not something they can support.
Settle back for an adventurous period approaching this Mecklenburg election.
Politics Even in Kid's Coloring Books
At some point in 2019, the AfD Party (far-right) went out and put up party money to produce a kid's coloring book.
Now you'd sit and pause over this, and wonder.....is there any possibility that this would get a bunch of journalists and politicians all hyped up? Well....yeah.
This is a page from the coloring book. The pool scene, with burka-clad gals, bikini tops removed, guys peeing in the pool? Yep.
So accusations went around that this was not a kid's coloring book, and that it might have adult themes in it. The AfD folks shut down the color book deal at that point.
The idea of selling this to adults? Best not to bring up that idea.
Now you'd sit and pause over this, and wonder.....is there any possibility that this would get a bunch of journalists and politicians all hyped up? Well....yeah.
This is a page from the coloring book. The pool scene, with burka-clad gals, bikini tops removed, guys peeing in the pool? Yep.
So accusations went around that this was not a kid's coloring book, and that it might have adult themes in it. The AfD folks shut down the color book deal at that point.
The idea of selling this to adults? Best not to bring up that idea.
Wednesday, February 19, 2020
Hanau Shooting
At this point.....seven hours after the act, things are marginally laid out by the police.
Number of dead at this point? Eight, but at two locations.....maybe even a third.
So around 10 PM.....at the Hanau 'Midnight' hookah bar (popular with Turks)....some guy walks in and fires several rounds (3 dead at this location). One witness say nine total rounds.
It appears that this same shooter then walked out....drove his car about a mile (over to the Kesselstadt suburb....west of this first shooting), and walked into a second hookah bar. There, he killed five guys.
Cops then got a report of rounds fired over by Lamboy.....another Hanau suburb....probably 2 miles away from the second site. So far, no deaths noted there.
Shooter? No one arrested at this point that is involved in the episode.
The arrival of shisaha bars in the past twenty years? This is an odd thing of culture now in Germany. Just in the Wiesbaden city region, I would guess a minimum of twenty such bar operations. In Hanau, I'd be guessing near a dozen exist. The police will raid one or two a week in the region.....mostly over threatened violence or untaxed tobacco being used in the operation.
UPDATE: 5:30 AM. It appears that the police have found the shooter....dead, at some apartment in the Hanau area. Reporting right now says another body found there....dead as well. Total dead from the evening affair: 10.
Number of dead at this point? Eight, but at two locations.....maybe even a third.
So around 10 PM.....at the Hanau 'Midnight' hookah bar (popular with Turks)....some guy walks in and fires several rounds (3 dead at this location). One witness say nine total rounds.
It appears that this same shooter then walked out....drove his car about a mile (over to the Kesselstadt suburb....west of this first shooting), and walked into a second hookah bar. There, he killed five guys.
Cops then got a report of rounds fired over by Lamboy.....another Hanau suburb....probably 2 miles away from the second site. So far, no deaths noted there.
Shooter? No one arrested at this point that is involved in the episode.
The arrival of shisaha bars in the past twenty years? This is an odd thing of culture now in Germany. Just in the Wiesbaden city region, I would guess a minimum of twenty such bar operations. In Hanau, I'd be guessing near a dozen exist. The police will raid one or two a week in the region.....mostly over threatened violence or untaxed tobacco being used in the operation.
UPDATE: 5:30 AM. It appears that the police have found the shooter....dead, at some apartment in the Hanau area. Reporting right now says another body found there....dead as well. Total dead from the evening affair: 10.
Thuringia Update
Late this afternoon (Wed), an update came up via ARD on the Thuringia chaos.
Quietly, within the CDU (right-of-center) Party circles (Merkel's team).....it's now being discussed that a agreement might occur, with the Linke Party, SPD, and Greens....avoiding another election entirely.
The chief item of discussion? Well....here's the thing....the national CDU agenda says that they cannot ever partner with the AfD or Linke Party. The CDU folks in Thuringia say that this iron-clad rule won't work in the long-run.
Shocker? National level disagreement with regional level situation? Maybe.
The key point? For a number of days.....folks were prepared for another election, which would be a harsh negative for the CDU. If this agreement occurred? No election, and the CDU would have five years to repair the public situation in the state.
Will this anger CDU-voters throughout the other fifteen states of Germany? To some degree. It will open up further table discussion, but at least the chaos in Thuringia would be ended (if they conclude this).
Quietly, within the CDU (right-of-center) Party circles (Merkel's team).....it's now being discussed that a agreement might occur, with the Linke Party, SPD, and Greens....avoiding another election entirely.
The chief item of discussion? Well....here's the thing....the national CDU agenda says that they cannot ever partner with the AfD or Linke Party. The CDU folks in Thuringia say that this iron-clad rule won't work in the long-run.
Shocker? National level disagreement with regional level situation? Maybe.
The key point? For a number of days.....folks were prepared for another election, which would be a harsh negative for the CDU. If this agreement occurred? No election, and the CDU would have five years to repair the public situation in the state.
Will this anger CDU-voters throughout the other fifteen states of Germany? To some degree. It will open up further table discussion, but at least the chaos in Thuringia would be ended (if they conclude this).
What Stopped the Thuringia 'Repair'?
I've essayed a number of pieces over the past month with the Thuringia election 'mess' and how no Premier-President resolution can come out of the election. So yesterday, a meeting occurred....where the old retired CDU Premier-President was brought to a table....with the winner party (the Linke folks).
A deal was laid out.....this former Premier President would have occupied the position for roughly 70 days, with a limited cabinet (three members). That's what the Linke Party proposed.
What failed? It came down to issues (reported by ZDF this morning):
1. This former CDU Premier-President said that she wouldn't take the job unless a full-up cabinet were part of the temp-action.
2. A state budget plan had to be the top priority to accomplish in this 70 day period, which no one really wanted to stand and agree to this 'promise'. The discussion behind the scenes suggested that a fight would have occurred over the budget, and would have gone way past the 70 day period.
Now? Everyone is standing there and shaking their head. This is fast becoming the biggest chaotic German political event since 1949.
A deal was laid out.....this former Premier President would have occupied the position for roughly 70 days, with a limited cabinet (three members). That's what the Linke Party proposed.
What failed? It came down to issues (reported by ZDF this morning):
1. This former CDU Premier-President said that she wouldn't take the job unless a full-up cabinet were part of the temp-action.
2. A state budget plan had to be the top priority to accomplish in this 70 day period, which no one really wanted to stand and agree to this 'promise'. The discussion behind the scenes suggested that a fight would have occurred over the budget, and would have gone way past the 70 day period.
Now? Everyone is standing there and shaking their head. This is fast becoming the biggest chaotic German political event since 1949.
Pension Reform Finally
If all goes by plan, the 'Basic Pension' concept in Germany will be introduced and passed today via the Bundestag.
The deal? Well....this is what ARD (public TV news, Channel One) is reporting:
This won't start until 1 January 2021.
Roughly 1.3-million Germans will benefit from the package.....of which were suffering from marginal pensions.
You had to work 33 years.....to get the deal.
Your pension will now rise (as a single person) to 1,250 Euro (roughly $1,500 US). Married? 1,950 Euro.
If you have secondary sources of income? For example? A rental house, or stock dividends, or a 50-percent interest in a flower shop? Basically, you are screwed because that income will be counted toward the max of 1,250 Euro.....so it could prevent you from getting the added money.
Where does the extra money in the pot come from? Unknown, and they aren't discussing much over the added cost to the yearly budget.
Did they need the money? No one much argues over that fact. If you were to look around....there are a fair number of retired Germans who get a 600 Euro a month pension package.....mostly because they worked at crappy jobs for the bulk of their career. Can you survive off 600 Euro (roughly $700 US dollars) a month? No. So for a lot of these people....they were already on some type of significant welfare payment/supplement.
It's hard to find anyone who disapproves of the pension change, but the chief issue discussed.....where exactly this will this money come from? More taxes?
The deal? Well....this is what ARD (public TV news, Channel One) is reporting:
This won't start until 1 January 2021.
Roughly 1.3-million Germans will benefit from the package.....of which were suffering from marginal pensions.
You had to work 33 years.....to get the deal.
Your pension will now rise (as a single person) to 1,250 Euro (roughly $1,500 US). Married? 1,950 Euro.
If you have secondary sources of income? For example? A rental house, or stock dividends, or a 50-percent interest in a flower shop? Basically, you are screwed because that income will be counted toward the max of 1,250 Euro.....so it could prevent you from getting the added money.
Where does the extra money in the pot come from? Unknown, and they aren't discussing much over the added cost to the yearly budget.
Did they need the money? No one much argues over that fact. If you were to look around....there are a fair number of retired Germans who get a 600 Euro a month pension package.....mostly because they worked at crappy jobs for the bulk of their career. Can you survive off 600 Euro (roughly $700 US dollars) a month? No. So for a lot of these people....they were already on some type of significant welfare payment/supplement.
It's hard to find anyone who disapproves of the pension change, but the chief issue discussed.....where exactly this will this money come from? More taxes?
Tuesday, February 18, 2020
Thuringia Update
Basically, what ARD (national news, public TV, Channel One) is reporting is that the Linke Party meeting with the right-of-center CDU Party.....ended with a big zero. No agreement.
The Linke Party wanted a temp government solution....lasting 70 days, with a CDU temp Premier-President.....but to only have three ministers to run the government.
The CDU Party boss at the state level (Mike Mohring) said? No, this wouldn't work....the election needs to occur. End of the story.
For budget reasons, the Linke chief (Ramelow) needed something to occur.
What's left? The Linke folks could step to the side....allowing the number two winner of the election (the CDU Party) to step up....align with the SPD, Greens and FDP.....to marginally have enough seats to run a government, or just say enough....have an election as soon as possible. The odds of a four-way government? I'd say less than 50-percent chance.
This has to upset virtually everyone on the Linke voting group.
The Linke Party wanted a temp government solution....lasting 70 days, with a CDU temp Premier-President.....but to only have three ministers to run the government.
The CDU Party boss at the state level (Mike Mohring) said? No, this wouldn't work....the election needs to occur. End of the story.
For budget reasons, the Linke chief (Ramelow) needed something to occur.
What's left? The Linke folks could step to the side....allowing the number two winner of the election (the CDU Party) to step up....align with the SPD, Greens and FDP.....to marginally have enough seats to run a government, or just say enough....have an election as soon as possible. The odds of a four-way government? I'd say less than 50-percent chance.
This has to upset virtually everyone on the Linke voting group.
Röttgen?
Fourth candidate for CDU Party leadership and next Chancellor Candidate? Yes....at least Focus (the magazine says that this morning).
The guy? Norbert Röttgen, who is mostly known as the party foreign affairs expert. Widely known? Within the party, yes.....nation-wide, I would suggest less so.
What you can say about him is that he's extremely pro-EU, and that he feels a number of former CDU-voters have gone to the far-right (AfD) because the CDU refused to engage or talk realistically about migration and asylum.
What'd he do about migration and asylum? Unknown....he leaves this part out.
He does suggest that the party must reach out beyond the center-point where it occupies, and take on left/right issues. This would mean leaving the Merkel strategy and changing the face of the current government.
Likely odds here? I could see him being a close second to Merz (who leads currently).
The guy? Norbert Röttgen, who is mostly known as the party foreign affairs expert. Widely known? Within the party, yes.....nation-wide, I would suggest less so.
What you can say about him is that he's extremely pro-EU, and that he feels a number of former CDU-voters have gone to the far-right (AfD) because the CDU refused to engage or talk realistically about migration and asylum.
What'd he do about migration and asylum? Unknown....he leaves this part out.
He does suggest that the party must reach out beyond the center-point where it occupies, and take on left/right issues. This would mean leaving the Merkel strategy and changing the face of the current government.
Likely odds here? I could see him being a close second to Merz (who leads currently).
More on the Tesla Plant
German government worried over delays in the Tesla plant construction? OH YEAH.
I've essayed a few pieces on this project. If you remember....it's a plant in a fairly rural area....about an hour SE of Berlin. It's along an autobahn exit, and what Tesla wants is roughly a 250-odd acre area cleared off, a plant constructed, and production to start within two years.
Environmentalists have stepped in....used court action to slow this down (because of tree-cutting), and hopefully halt the plant entirely.
What N-TV (commercial German news) is reporting today.....is that Pete Altmaier (Germany's Economic Minister) is highly worried over this delay business. He even came out and said if you are highly worried about the climate business.....you need to be pro-electric car production. It's a slam on the environmentalists and it's fairly blunt.
Small and medium-sized businesses across Germany are also whining about the environmental threats via the court system, and suggesting that this is now a major problem.
The two key threats cited in this effort, to prevent the plant? First....water quality is brought up and there is a fear that it'll become a problem....if you build a plant. If this is a problem....then how does Stuttgart, Mainz, or any of 1,000 other communities survive with their industry complexes?
The second issue....the environmentalists chat about the need for roads, and railway networks.....which will clutter the traffic situation in the region. On this....they might be right. You can figure roughly 3,000 to 4,000 employees at the site, and probably a growth period over the next decade of another 5,000 to 10,000 people living in the local rural area.
If they (the environmentalists) succeed and Tesla drops the plant? It's a real possibility, and Tesla would likely leave Germany entirely.....probably (my humble bet) going to Czech or Poland. It would be a five-star negative moment for Germany, and signal that it's not just Tesla that has a problem....it's virtually every business operation in Germany that faces an unknown future.
How long can the court delay without Tesla getting frustrated? No one says anything in public, but there is a schedule with Tesla, and I doubt if you can put more than 90 days of delay into the system.
Two years ago, I wrote an essay over Apple and a data-site that they were planning for the town of Athenry, Ireland. I might recommend it for a read.
In the Apple case....very similar in terms of a wooded area which required clearing and virtually 99-percent of the locals being happy and pro-Apple.....these two pro-environmentalists entered the scene and delayed construction by two years. The court system worked in the favor of the environmentalists. At the end, with massive anger by the local community.....Apple cancelled the project, and moved on. Upwards to 300 jobs would have been brought to the community, with a fair amount of property tax helping the town. The two environmentalists? I always had the feeling they weren't concerned about that part of the plan.....they were more of a anti-capitalist mindset.
Settle back for some entertainment if Tesla cancels out.
I've essayed a few pieces on this project. If you remember....it's a plant in a fairly rural area....about an hour SE of Berlin. It's along an autobahn exit, and what Tesla wants is roughly a 250-odd acre area cleared off, a plant constructed, and production to start within two years.
Environmentalists have stepped in....used court action to slow this down (because of tree-cutting), and hopefully halt the plant entirely.
What N-TV (commercial German news) is reporting today.....is that Pete Altmaier (Germany's Economic Minister) is highly worried over this delay business. He even came out and said if you are highly worried about the climate business.....you need to be pro-electric car production. It's a slam on the environmentalists and it's fairly blunt.
Small and medium-sized businesses across Germany are also whining about the environmental threats via the court system, and suggesting that this is now a major problem.
The two key threats cited in this effort, to prevent the plant? First....water quality is brought up and there is a fear that it'll become a problem....if you build a plant. If this is a problem....then how does Stuttgart, Mainz, or any of 1,000 other communities survive with their industry complexes?
The second issue....the environmentalists chat about the need for roads, and railway networks.....which will clutter the traffic situation in the region. On this....they might be right. You can figure roughly 3,000 to 4,000 employees at the site, and probably a growth period over the next decade of another 5,000 to 10,000 people living in the local rural area.
If they (the environmentalists) succeed and Tesla drops the plant? It's a real possibility, and Tesla would likely leave Germany entirely.....probably (my humble bet) going to Czech or Poland. It would be a five-star negative moment for Germany, and signal that it's not just Tesla that has a problem....it's virtually every business operation in Germany that faces an unknown future.
How long can the court delay without Tesla getting frustrated? No one says anything in public, but there is a schedule with Tesla, and I doubt if you can put more than 90 days of delay into the system.
Two years ago, I wrote an essay over Apple and a data-site that they were planning for the town of Athenry, Ireland. I might recommend it for a read.
In the Apple case....very similar in terms of a wooded area which required clearing and virtually 99-percent of the locals being happy and pro-Apple.....these two pro-environmentalists entered the scene and delayed construction by two years. The court system worked in the favor of the environmentalists. At the end, with massive anger by the local community.....Apple cancelled the project, and moved on. Upwards to 300 jobs would have been brought to the community, with a fair amount of property tax helping the town. The two environmentalists? I always had the feeling they weren't concerned about that part of the plan.....they were more of a anti-capitalist mindset.
Settle back for some entertainment if Tesla cancels out.
The Thuringia Meeting
Yesterday, an attempt by the Linke Party in Thuringia (one of Germany's 16 states) to iron out the political stalemate going on occurred.
What Focus said about the meeting?
Even though the Linke Party won the late October 2019 election.....they basically can't form a unified or coalition government. In fact, the attempt from three weeks ago turned into a major mess.
So the answer from yesterday.....ex-Premier President Ramelow (from the Linke group) proposed that the CDU folks (Merkel's party) step in with their person (preferring former CDU Party Primer-Minister Christine Lieberknecht. It would be a four-way government. The far-left Linke Party, SPD, Greens and CDU.
But this group would only be around for 70 days, then disappear as a new election would occur. Reason mostly for this necessity? The budget period needs to be accomplished.
Odds of this occurring? Unknown. Never in the history of the CDU....have they partnered with the Linke Party. That is a fact.
What Focus said about the meeting?
Even though the Linke Party won the late October 2019 election.....they basically can't form a unified or coalition government. In fact, the attempt from three weeks ago turned into a major mess.
So the answer from yesterday.....ex-Premier President Ramelow (from the Linke group) proposed that the CDU folks (Merkel's party) step in with their person (preferring former CDU Party Primer-Minister Christine Lieberknecht. It would be a four-way government. The far-left Linke Party, SPD, Greens and CDU.
But this group would only be around for 70 days, then disappear as a new election would occur. Reason mostly for this necessity? The budget period needs to be accomplished.
Odds of this occurring? Unknown. Never in the history of the CDU....have they partnered with the Linke Party. That is a fact.
Monday, February 17, 2020
A Questionable Democracy
I don't know how these German TV forum 'personalities' organize or plan out their public forums, but they really need some harsh dose of reality. For Sunday night's show (Anne Will Forum Show).....they ran with the question, is German democracy broken?
Why ask this stupid question? Well.....everything about the national government and the sixteen state governments....is heavily dependent on a coalition government existing. If you can't form a coalition.....then you got a five-star mess. Ever since 1949.....the formula was simple. You had two primary parties, and a minor party. Since the 1990s with the Wall coming down, every single election reaches a point where the numbers....mathematically....are tougher to figure the coalition. With six significant parties now....it's just not that simple.
You start with the logical points....the CDU can't partner with the AfD or the Linke Party. All of the other parties can't partner with the AfD Party. To some extent.....the FDP can only marginally partner with the Green Party. So you start figuring out the numbers and potential outcomes, and getting to coalition is difficult now.
The magic number where the AfD Party makes it impossible for the others? I put the number around 20-percent. This requires in some way for the SPD Party to continue to slide on their polling.
Is German democracy crapped out? Based on coalition-building, the simple answer is yes. I'll predict in 2021, and certainly in 2025....it'll be a problem.
Trying to run without a coalition majority? You can run a minority government, although Germany has never done this, and it really weakens stability (if you use other countries as the example). But it's probably the way things will develop unless the AfD Party stumbles itself out of the current numbers that they show.
Why ask this stupid question? Well.....everything about the national government and the sixteen state governments....is heavily dependent on a coalition government existing. If you can't form a coalition.....then you got a five-star mess. Ever since 1949.....the formula was simple. You had two primary parties, and a minor party. Since the 1990s with the Wall coming down, every single election reaches a point where the numbers....mathematically....are tougher to figure the coalition. With six significant parties now....it's just not that simple.
You start with the logical points....the CDU can't partner with the AfD or the Linke Party. All of the other parties can't partner with the AfD Party. To some extent.....the FDP can only marginally partner with the Green Party. So you start figuring out the numbers and potential outcomes, and getting to coalition is difficult now.
The magic number where the AfD Party makes it impossible for the others? I put the number around 20-percent. This requires in some way for the SPD Party to continue to slide on their polling.
Is German democracy crapped out? Based on coalition-building, the simple answer is yes. I'll predict in 2021, and certainly in 2025....it'll be a problem.
Trying to run without a coalition majority? You can run a minority government, although Germany has never done this, and it really weakens stability (if you use other countries as the example). But it's probably the way things will develop unless the AfD Party stumbles itself out of the current numbers that they show.
Right-Wing Fanatics?
On Friday of last week, German police went out and conducted a number of search warrants on various houses in Germany (they say six states were listed).
What Focus reports today about the raids is that it was about an extreme right-wing group....who were planning these attacks on Muslim mosques in Germany.
Arrested? Currently.....a dozen German men are being held. Could it go higher? I suspect yes.
The group is referred to as 'Group S'. All are listed as Germans. All had the basic goal of attacking the mosque operations, and possibly triggering a civil conflict.
Curiously, the head guy of the group had been put a watch-list several months ago, and police had been monitoring him.
Nazi-label? I wouldn't go that far. They appear (at least by Police statements) to be focused heavily on Muslim issues and triggering some type of serious action.
Charges? Not a lot yet, but I would guess they might be spending a minimum of ten years in prison.
What Focus reports today about the raids is that it was about an extreme right-wing group....who were planning these attacks on Muslim mosques in Germany.
Arrested? Currently.....a dozen German men are being held. Could it go higher? I suspect yes.
The group is referred to as 'Group S'. All are listed as Germans. All had the basic goal of attacking the mosque operations, and possibly triggering a civil conflict.
Curiously, the head guy of the group had been put a watch-list several months ago, and police had been monitoring him.
Nazi-label? I wouldn't go that far. They appear (at least by Police statements) to be focused heavily on Muslim issues and triggering some type of serious action.
Charges? Not a lot yet, but I would guess they might be spending a minimum of ten years in prison.
What Matters in Hamburg for this Upcoming State Election?
Within a week, the state election will occur in Hamburg (one of the sixteen German states), and there is a list of things on the minds of local residents. If you follow the Wahl-O-Mat system.....these are the things that matter:
1. Deepening of the Elbe (for increased traffic, and more commerce).
2. The rental price brake for apartments to be abolished. Some folks do suggest that it's hindered new apartment planning and construction.
3. After the first five years of school.....kids should be mandated to attend a joint school, for a unspecified period of time.
4. Video surveillance should be increased (to hinder crime). But anti-privacy people hate the idea.
5. More car-free zones should be established (Green Party chatter).
6. Childcare should be completely free (thus paid for by taxation).
7. The 'Red Flora' should be closed (this is the anti-capitalist building in the center of town, with a long history).
8. The farmland around Hamburg.....should only be leased or allowed use to environmentally friendly farmers, NOT to the evil capitalist farmers.
9. The mayor should only be elected by the people.....not the city council itself.
10. More light-rail to be introduced into Hamburg.
11. The city of Hamburg should deport failed asylum folks, in quick and simple fashion.
12. The real estate/property tax should go up.
13. The long-distance train station at Altonia should be shut down.
14. Hamburg should create 'fake' jobs for long-term unemployed, to get them back into the mindset of working.
15. Smoking in public....should ONLY occur in special places (they aren't exactly saying where).
16. The port of Hamburg should control weapon shipments, or forbid them.
17. The city should support 'free' culture situations more. This isn't exactly clear.....it does sound like hippy-stuff but maybe there's more to the word 'free'.
18. The Hamburg emergency shelter deal should be open in the day-time as well (currently, it's evenings only).
19. Bike planning should be top priority.....over car-route planning.
20. The school agenda in Hamburg should be based on the normal family (father, mother, son, daughter).
21. Disguises in riots or demonstrations should continue to be forbidden.
22. Vegen lunches should be offered at all Hamburg schools daily.
23. Hamburg City should go and recruit non-Germans for jobs in the city, and bless 'visas' for the incoming crowd.
24. The regional coal-run plant should be connected to the hot-water heating network of the city.
25. Marijuana use should still be a crime.
26. Any budget money left at the end of the year.....should go the city debt.
27. Moorburg and Hamburg port facilities....should be one single operation.
28. Folks who arrive on day one and ask for asylum.....should be given a work-permit and allowed to work from that day forward.
29. The dance 'ban' on Good Friday should continue as a city 'law'.
30. When planning housing developments, a percentage of all structure should include social housing (cheap and affordable rates).
31. The minimum of 5-percent voting on elections for parties to gets seats in the assembly should continue.
32. More funding for public hospitals.
33. Hamburg City should work to clear food from grocery operations.....that instead of it being thrown away, it should be issued to the poor of the city.
34. Public transport should be free.....meaning that everyone would pay more taxes to cover the free deal.
35. Hamburg should be open on Sundays.
36. Hamburg should declare a climate emergency.
So are some of these pretty radical? Yes. I would imagine that roughly half the city would cross off half of the things, saying that they just aren't that important. Oddly, if some were prioritized and accomplished.....taxes would be going up in a substantial way. I doubt if that was mentioned.
1. Deepening of the Elbe (for increased traffic, and more commerce).
2. The rental price brake for apartments to be abolished. Some folks do suggest that it's hindered new apartment planning and construction.
3. After the first five years of school.....kids should be mandated to attend a joint school, for a unspecified period of time.
4. Video surveillance should be increased (to hinder crime). But anti-privacy people hate the idea.
5. More car-free zones should be established (Green Party chatter).
6. Childcare should be completely free (thus paid for by taxation).
7. The 'Red Flora' should be closed (this is the anti-capitalist building in the center of town, with a long history).
8. The farmland around Hamburg.....should only be leased or allowed use to environmentally friendly farmers, NOT to the evil capitalist farmers.
9. The mayor should only be elected by the people.....not the city council itself.
10. More light-rail to be introduced into Hamburg.
11. The city of Hamburg should deport failed asylum folks, in quick and simple fashion.
12. The real estate/property tax should go up.
13. The long-distance train station at Altonia should be shut down.
14. Hamburg should create 'fake' jobs for long-term unemployed, to get them back into the mindset of working.
15. Smoking in public....should ONLY occur in special places (they aren't exactly saying where).
16. The port of Hamburg should control weapon shipments, or forbid them.
17. The city should support 'free' culture situations more. This isn't exactly clear.....it does sound like hippy-stuff but maybe there's more to the word 'free'.
18. The Hamburg emergency shelter deal should be open in the day-time as well (currently, it's evenings only).
19. Bike planning should be top priority.....over car-route planning.
20. The school agenda in Hamburg should be based on the normal family (father, mother, son, daughter).
21. Disguises in riots or demonstrations should continue to be forbidden.
22. Vegen lunches should be offered at all Hamburg schools daily.
23. Hamburg City should go and recruit non-Germans for jobs in the city, and bless 'visas' for the incoming crowd.
24. The regional coal-run plant should be connected to the hot-water heating network of the city.
25. Marijuana use should still be a crime.
26. Any budget money left at the end of the year.....should go the city debt.
27. Moorburg and Hamburg port facilities....should be one single operation.
28. Folks who arrive on day one and ask for asylum.....should be given a work-permit and allowed to work from that day forward.
29. The dance 'ban' on Good Friday should continue as a city 'law'.
30. When planning housing developments, a percentage of all structure should include social housing (cheap and affordable rates).
31. The minimum of 5-percent voting on elections for parties to gets seats in the assembly should continue.
32. More funding for public hospitals.
33. Hamburg City should work to clear food from grocery operations.....that instead of it being thrown away, it should be issued to the poor of the city.
34. Public transport should be free.....meaning that everyone would pay more taxes to cover the free deal.
35. Hamburg should be open on Sundays.
36. Hamburg should declare a climate emergency.
So are some of these pretty radical? Yes. I would imagine that roughly half the city would cross off half of the things, saying that they just aren't that important. Oddly, if some were prioritized and accomplished.....taxes would be going up in a substantial way. I doubt if that was mentioned.
How a Little Late Night Noise Created a 'War'
So this is one of my historical essays over a small event in German history.
In the northern suburbs of Munich....rests Schwabinger. In early summer of 1962 (21 June)....local residents in the district ended up calling the police on some street musicians.
What history writes about the occasion is that this Thursday evening ended up in chaos as the police arrived.
The law on quiet hours? Most communities have a standard of after-10 PM being 'quiet hours'. So at 10:30 PM that night....the call went to the police.
The showing of the police? Somewhere in the midst of this....the chief of Munich's police showed up. Maybe it was the fact that one of the calls came from the local city council guy. So this escalated fairly quickly.
The decision to detain the five musicians at the heart of the event? That probably was an unwise decision.....but this was 1962, and the police usually made harsh decisions without thinking over later consequences.
Rather than tone down the mess....all through this evening, and going on for four additional days.....was a city-wide protest. Some suggest between 30,000 and 40,000 locals were part of this protest effort.
The two groups? The police, and mostly college students.
What's mostly said by locals after the event is that a fair amount of public and private damage was done, and police would admit that they'd arrested upwards to 400 students. Charges? This mostly went to misdemeanor situations and light fines and suspended jail sentences.
The harsh criticism over police actions and thug-behavior? That drifted around for a few days and disappeared for the most part.
As things cooled off.....city authorities and the police came to agree that a lot of the start-up and negative reaction....came from the blunt actions of the police. So there was a updated training episode occurred, where the police (not just in Munich, but throughout Bavaria, and the rest of the nation) were lectured to calmly walk into a situation....have a gameplan ahead of time, and only detain the parties necessary.
So there are two key elements to the Munich riot episode.
First, most historians will agree that this kinda opened the door for the golden era of the Adenauer era as Chancellor to end. To be truthful, this also had appearances to the 1918-1919 riots of Munich and probably scared a few Bavarian political figures.
Second, oddly....one of the rioters in this event was a 19-year-old kid by the last name of Baader. Yeah, the guy who started the Baader-Meinhof gang, and the Red Army Faction by 1970.
Without the loud music, the riot and the police accusations. Baader would have returned from Munich without much to talk about.
The beginning of the RAF 'civil war' in Germany? People will argue about this, but there's no doubt that this one key event changed the perception of the police, and opened up the door for radicalization to occur.
In the northern suburbs of Munich....rests Schwabinger. In early summer of 1962 (21 June)....local residents in the district ended up calling the police on some street musicians.
What history writes about the occasion is that this Thursday evening ended up in chaos as the police arrived.
The law on quiet hours? Most communities have a standard of after-10 PM being 'quiet hours'. So at 10:30 PM that night....the call went to the police.
The showing of the police? Somewhere in the midst of this....the chief of Munich's police showed up. Maybe it was the fact that one of the calls came from the local city council guy. So this escalated fairly quickly.
The decision to detain the five musicians at the heart of the event? That probably was an unwise decision.....but this was 1962, and the police usually made harsh decisions without thinking over later consequences.
Rather than tone down the mess....all through this evening, and going on for four additional days.....was a city-wide protest. Some suggest between 30,000 and 40,000 locals were part of this protest effort.
The two groups? The police, and mostly college students.
What's mostly said by locals after the event is that a fair amount of public and private damage was done, and police would admit that they'd arrested upwards to 400 students. Charges? This mostly went to misdemeanor situations and light fines and suspended jail sentences.
The harsh criticism over police actions and thug-behavior? That drifted around for a few days and disappeared for the most part.
As things cooled off.....city authorities and the police came to agree that a lot of the start-up and negative reaction....came from the blunt actions of the police. So there was a updated training episode occurred, where the police (not just in Munich, but throughout Bavaria, and the rest of the nation) were lectured to calmly walk into a situation....have a gameplan ahead of time, and only detain the parties necessary.
So there are two key elements to the Munich riot episode.
First, most historians will agree that this kinda opened the door for the golden era of the Adenauer era as Chancellor to end. To be truthful, this also had appearances to the 1918-1919 riots of Munich and probably scared a few Bavarian political figures.
Second, oddly....one of the rioters in this event was a 19-year-old kid by the last name of Baader. Yeah, the guy who started the Baader-Meinhof gang, and the Red Army Faction by 1970.
Without the loud music, the riot and the police accusations. Baader would have returned from Munich without much to talk about.
The beginning of the RAF 'civil war' in Germany? People will argue about this, but there's no doubt that this one key event changed the perception of the police, and opened up the door for radicalization to occur.
Sunday, February 16, 2020
The Merz-Habeck 2021 'Race'
If you go with the CDU scenario of Friedrich Merz being selected as the Party 'Boss', and chief Chancellor candidate....the guaranteed Green Party candidate will be Robert Habeck.
Unlike ALL previous elections in German history (since WW II).....the SPD Party will very likely NOT be able to mount a serious candidate and I would estimate their polling to show them at 18-percent (maybe even less, at 15-percent). The Greens, because of the Greta-crew and accomplishments in various states.....should be able to pull near 24-percent in polling.
So the question comes up....will the public TV networks commit to the method of the past election.....allowing only the top two parties to debate in one session, and the junior parties (which the SPD would be) stuck in a separate debate deal? I think so.
What kind of election would this be with the Greens and CDU Party? It would mostly have to do with capitalism and anti-capitalism, along with pro-environmental agendas.
Merz isn't a Merkel-type speaker, or manager. Merz is pro-business and likely would be talking about jobs, taxes, and making things work better.
Habeck? He would talk a great deal about electric cars, forcing more people to use trains, carbon stuff, and probably discuss less NATO requirements.
The odds of the CDU and Greens forming a government after this election? I would go and suggest the odds are very favorable at this point. For the SPD folks....this is a dismal suggestion, and really makes their future less certain. The SPD likely candidate? Unknown at present, and I suspect you won't hear much for another six to eight months.
Unlike ALL previous elections in German history (since WW II).....the SPD Party will very likely NOT be able to mount a serious candidate and I would estimate their polling to show them at 18-percent (maybe even less, at 15-percent). The Greens, because of the Greta-crew and accomplishments in various states.....should be able to pull near 24-percent in polling.
So the question comes up....will the public TV networks commit to the method of the past election.....allowing only the top two parties to debate in one session, and the junior parties (which the SPD would be) stuck in a separate debate deal? I think so.
What kind of election would this be with the Greens and CDU Party? It would mostly have to do with capitalism and anti-capitalism, along with pro-environmental agendas.
Merz isn't a Merkel-type speaker, or manager. Merz is pro-business and likely would be talking about jobs, taxes, and making things work better.
Habeck? He would talk a great deal about electric cars, forcing more people to use trains, carbon stuff, and probably discuss less NATO requirements.
The odds of the CDU and Greens forming a government after this election? I would go and suggest the odds are very favorable at this point. For the SPD folks....this is a dismal suggestion, and really makes their future less certain. The SPD likely candidate? Unknown at present, and I suspect you won't hear much for another six to eight months.
Political Chatter
So there's a meeting slated for tomorrow in Thuringia....between the Linke Party former Premier-President of the state, the Greens, the SPD, and the CDU Party remaining 'chiefs' (if you remember....their former boss quit two weeks ago).
The topic? What MDR (the regional public TV folks) says....is that Ramelow is going to lay out a number of concessions, to get the regional CDU Party to agree to support him....thus bringing him back to the Premier President job, halt the discussed second election for the state, and somehow bring stability back to the region.
The problems? You basically have three key issues:
1. The national CDU folks have said absolutely no support for the Linke Party in this type of scenario. On the regional level....based on various reports of the past month, I'd say that a third of all CDU-voters would be open to something but the Linke Party would really have to back down drastically on how this government would function.
2. Serious chatter says that the CDU might be willing to vote for this relationship....if the Premier-President is a SPD or Green Party person. The problem with this? Both won with less than 8-percent of the national vote. So if you got all negative about the FDP guy taking charge....same thing will occur again.
3. Finally, this is just me saying this.....but a fair number of Linke voters aren't exactly in favor of backing down much. I would guess half of them don't agree with this strategy.
At the heart of this? I think folks are worried over a second election and where this might lead onto. Ought to be a real interesting week.
The topic? What MDR (the regional public TV folks) says....is that Ramelow is going to lay out a number of concessions, to get the regional CDU Party to agree to support him....thus bringing him back to the Premier President job, halt the discussed second election for the state, and somehow bring stability back to the region.
The problems? You basically have three key issues:
1. The national CDU folks have said absolutely no support for the Linke Party in this type of scenario. On the regional level....based on various reports of the past month, I'd say that a third of all CDU-voters would be open to something but the Linke Party would really have to back down drastically on how this government would function.
2. Serious chatter says that the CDU might be willing to vote for this relationship....if the Premier-President is a SPD or Green Party person. The problem with this? Both won with less than 8-percent of the national vote. So if you got all negative about the FDP guy taking charge....same thing will occur again.
3. Finally, this is just me saying this.....but a fair number of Linke voters aren't exactly in favor of backing down much. I would guess half of them don't agree with this strategy.
At the heart of this? I think folks are worried over a second election and where this might lead onto. Ought to be a real interesting week.
Ten Little Rules for a Non-German to Survive Germany
This is my list of ten things that a non-German (mostly Brits and Americans) need to consider and remember on daily basis:
1. Germans spend a lot of time thinking about organization, connectivity, consequence, cohesiveness, clock-work, and bureaucracy. Whether it's agreeable or not, you need to fit your 'square-peg' into the 'round-hole'.
2. Just because they spent 400,000 Euro on a single ICE-railway car....does not mean that the toilet readily works or that the air-conditioning is functional in 35-C or more temperatures.
3. The German 'purity order' for beer (Reinheitsgebot) has been around since 1516, and says that only water, barley and hops can be used for pure beer. Anything else added, is impure beer to a German. Don't get confused and say any stupid crap about making pure beer better.
4. Germans offer criticism twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week, fifty-two weeks a year. Don't get nervous or hyped up if they suggest your attire is archaic, or that your suggestions are counter-productive, or that your car is wasteful of fuel, or that you might be xenophobic/racist. If you go back to the 1920s, German scientists were criticizing and condemning that wacky Einstein guy as well. The same land that builds cars for 120 mph speeds.....heavily criticizes extreme speed. The same cooks who design 3,000 calories dinners for each guest.....harshly criticize fat people. Just accept that fact.
5. There are Germans working around the clock to invent various new forms of taxation, and frankly....they have no idea what the new revenue money will do....just that you can't allow wealthy Germans to exist. In relationship to this....wealthy Germans are working around the clock....to hide their income, and pretend that they aren't quiet that rich. Just admire the two groups, and how they both pretend that this is all good for the general public.
6. If some authority German figure has signed some schedule for things to occur, it's about a 99-percent that the schedule will be pushed to the extremes to occur as 'promised'. So if it says the 7:03 AM train will leave each morning....it's pretty good odds that it will leave on time. But in relationship to that....don't go anticipating that things will work as planned, and some 10-minute delay might occur during the trip.
7. Don't get consumed over Germany being a fairy-tale land, or a Deutsche-Disneyland, or a Brothers Grimm story, or some WW II extended museum, or one giant metropolitan lusty sex-center, or a beer-keg kingdom, or a Modern Talking disco opera. It's simply a collection of people on a wild ride, and you need to hang on.
8. If you have a problem with rules, upon rules, upon rules.....with a quarter of the population dedicated to bureaucracy.....it's best to just move along (maybe just a mile over the edge of the French border would be fine enough for you).
9. If you seem to be around Germans who aren't extremely friendly (like locals that you'd encounter in Manchester, Daytona, or Melbourne)....just be patient. Eventually, three to five years down the road, they will utter 'du' in the conversation with you, then you can relax and feel accepted and as part of the inner circle. Also accept the fact that the vast majority of Germans have a max of three 'true' friends. Also accept the fact that Germans like for you to often mention how much more wonderful Germany is, over your country (even if it's true).
10. Germans (at least in this current era) may talk an awful lot about crime, thugs, drug dealers, and no-go areas. The problem here for you is that as bad as they might think of their town, or region might be.....it's probably three times worse than where you probably came from. Don't reassure the German about this....they need things to worry about and complain over.
1. Germans spend a lot of time thinking about organization, connectivity, consequence, cohesiveness, clock-work, and bureaucracy. Whether it's agreeable or not, you need to fit your 'square-peg' into the 'round-hole'.
2. Just because they spent 400,000 Euro on a single ICE-railway car....does not mean that the toilet readily works or that the air-conditioning is functional in 35-C or more temperatures.
3. The German 'purity order' for beer (Reinheitsgebot) has been around since 1516, and says that only water, barley and hops can be used for pure beer. Anything else added, is impure beer to a German. Don't get confused and say any stupid crap about making pure beer better.
4. Germans offer criticism twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week, fifty-two weeks a year. Don't get nervous or hyped up if they suggest your attire is archaic, or that your suggestions are counter-productive, or that your car is wasteful of fuel, or that you might be xenophobic/racist. If you go back to the 1920s, German scientists were criticizing and condemning that wacky Einstein guy as well. The same land that builds cars for 120 mph speeds.....heavily criticizes extreme speed. The same cooks who design 3,000 calories dinners for each guest.....harshly criticize fat people. Just accept that fact.
5. There are Germans working around the clock to invent various new forms of taxation, and frankly....they have no idea what the new revenue money will do....just that you can't allow wealthy Germans to exist. In relationship to this....wealthy Germans are working around the clock....to hide their income, and pretend that they aren't quiet that rich. Just admire the two groups, and how they both pretend that this is all good for the general public.
6. If some authority German figure has signed some schedule for things to occur, it's about a 99-percent that the schedule will be pushed to the extremes to occur as 'promised'. So if it says the 7:03 AM train will leave each morning....it's pretty good odds that it will leave on time. But in relationship to that....don't go anticipating that things will work as planned, and some 10-minute delay might occur during the trip.
7. Don't get consumed over Germany being a fairy-tale land, or a Deutsche-Disneyland, or a Brothers Grimm story, or some WW II extended museum, or one giant metropolitan lusty sex-center, or a beer-keg kingdom, or a Modern Talking disco opera. It's simply a collection of people on a wild ride, and you need to hang on.
8. If you have a problem with rules, upon rules, upon rules.....with a quarter of the population dedicated to bureaucracy.....it's best to just move along (maybe just a mile over the edge of the French border would be fine enough for you).
9. If you seem to be around Germans who aren't extremely friendly (like locals that you'd encounter in Manchester, Daytona, or Melbourne)....just be patient. Eventually, three to five years down the road, they will utter 'du' in the conversation with you, then you can relax and feel accepted and as part of the inner circle. Also accept the fact that the vast majority of Germans have a max of three 'true' friends. Also accept the fact that Germans like for you to often mention how much more wonderful Germany is, over your country (even if it's true).
10. Germans (at least in this current era) may talk an awful lot about crime, thugs, drug dealers, and no-go areas. The problem here for you is that as bad as they might think of their town, or region might be.....it's probably three times worse than where you probably came from. Don't reassure the German about this....they need things to worry about and complain over.
A Little Story
So this is one of those historical essays I write, and it's a fairly twisting tale.
Around 1970, social events in West Germany went 'south'.....with the Red Army Faction (RAF) or Baader-Meinhof Gang being organized. To orientate you....the RAF were anti-fascism, pro-Maoism, anti-imperialism, pro-Communism, pro-Marxism, pro-Leninism, etc.
It's safe to say that the bulk of their original crew were university-educated and came primarily out of the Frankfurt area. They made a name for themselves, and brought terror to the front doorstep of the West German government.
I could probably 500 lines of text over the 1970s and the achievements of the RAF....but I'll limit it to the tail-end of the RAF era (1990s period).
The 'steam' in the RAF purpose for existence began to run out as the Wall came down, and East Germany consolidated itself into the West German 'machine'.
But there's this interesting turn of events that occurs from the 1989 Wall episode. As the West Germans arrive and manage this 'mess'....they've come to note that various state-owned companies can't survive. The management quickly decides to move on....put the properties and businesses up for sale (fire-sale would be a good term).
Detlev Karsten Rohwedder is the West German who is in charge of this sale business. Because of the hostile nature in eastern regions.....the RAF decides that Rohwedder needs to be eliminated. On 1 April 1991....someone takes a rifle, and kills Rohwedder (wounding his wife in the action as well). From the scene, there is absolute DNA evidence collected....leading to this RAF member Wolfgang Grams (originally out of Wiesbaden). In later discussions, the state prosecutor will say that the hair found at the scene is not enough to prosecute Grams. But the cops are more worried about his continued actions at this point....if he were on an agenda situation.
Grams, as part of this discussion.....has a girlfriend....Brigit Hogefeld.
Things get heated after the 1 April killing of Rohwedder. The police put a lot of pressure on finding Grams before he does more damage.
At some point in the early spring of 1993 (two years after Rohwedder is killed)....the police have some indications over where Hogefeld and Grams are located.
On 27 June 1993, the special police task force on terrorism....GSG-9, had Grams and Hogefeld tracked to the Bad Kleinen region (about an hour's drive east of Hamburg). The game-plan was to arrest them at the train platform there in the Bad Kleinen.
This didn't go too well. Grams reacts to the attempted arrest....pulls a weapon on the two policemen....wounding one and killing the other. The arrest of the girlfriend (Hogefeld) goes off without a problem. So in this brief moment or two with Grams holding a weapon....things get tense.
Grams either falls off the platform or is pushed. In this fall....either before or after....the accusation is that the police simply put a gun to his head, and shot him dead. Yep, execution-style. Grams is dead on the tracks.
In the days that follow....the newspapers shape the theme and message here....that the GSG-9 folks murdered the RAF guy....Grams. A hearing was held, and the court system said no....that Grams had actually put the gun to his head and went out via suicide. The newspapers continued with their story, and for three decades....that's been the belief in the general public.
Well....this weekend, the story got changed.
Shortly after this event, some witness came to the Spiegel news magazine and wanted to share their view of the event. Why not approach the police? Unknown.
So the witness sat down with a reporter and provided what was roughly sixty-pages of knowledge and information over what happened there on the platform. In simple terms, yes....the RAF guy....Grams....had committed suicide.
Spiegel's journalist (Leyendecker) took the 60 pages to his boss (Foerster). The story was discussed briefly as a cover-story for the news magazine. It would have shifted blame away for the execution story, and to a simple story of suicide.
What happened? Well....Spiegel dropped the entire story. No mention. The 60 pages got shuffled away into the archieves of the magazine. Focus (the magazine) brought up the whole story, and it's well worth reading. For some reason, in the last month....someone came across the 60 pages and it's being reviewed again. It'll probably be told as some page four story via Spiegel.
So what really happened? Fake news....more or less. Spiegel decided that the anti-government story was the big story, and simply refused to discuss anything other than that.
Rather than the story at this point.....let me tell the end-piece of this.
You see....the girlfriend of Grams matters. Hogefeld goes off to jail, and has a fair amount of time to think over what happened throughout the 1970s and 1980s. She's also witnessing the culture war that the RAF is waging.
Hogefeld will write an essay piece that basically says the 'war' is no longer valid. There is no purpose for the Red Army Faction. It's blasted in public by their anonymous voices but the simple truth is....Hogefeld is correct. The times have changed.
Delays occur with the court action over Hogefeld, and her conviction does not occur until November 1996 (four years after the arrest). She's given life in prison.
On 20 April 1998 (two years after her conviction)....there is a 8-page letter released by the Red Army Faction. They agree.....it's time to end the war. There is no purpose to exist anymore.
What happened to Hogefeld? At the 15-year point, in 2011, the German government releases her. Since that point, she's maintained a low profile.
So you turn and face the Spiegel 'problem'. The slant was....Grams was executed and they could have easily cleared the air. They failed. I doubt if that many Germans are shocked by the twist here. But this is the world we live in and why people are so skeptical about things now.
Final note....what if Grams and Hogefeld had kept a low-profile, and just never been arrested? Well....Hogefeld would have never reviewed the RAF purpose and the Red Army Faction would still be in existence today....killing German political figures as needed.
Around 1970, social events in West Germany went 'south'.....with the Red Army Faction (RAF) or Baader-Meinhof Gang being organized. To orientate you....the RAF were anti-fascism, pro-Maoism, anti-imperialism, pro-Communism, pro-Marxism, pro-Leninism, etc.
It's safe to say that the bulk of their original crew were university-educated and came primarily out of the Frankfurt area. They made a name for themselves, and brought terror to the front doorstep of the West German government.
I could probably 500 lines of text over the 1970s and the achievements of the RAF....but I'll limit it to the tail-end of the RAF era (1990s period).
The 'steam' in the RAF purpose for existence began to run out as the Wall came down, and East Germany consolidated itself into the West German 'machine'.
But there's this interesting turn of events that occurs from the 1989 Wall episode. As the West Germans arrive and manage this 'mess'....they've come to note that various state-owned companies can't survive. The management quickly decides to move on....put the properties and businesses up for sale (fire-sale would be a good term).
Detlev Karsten Rohwedder is the West German who is in charge of this sale business. Because of the hostile nature in eastern regions.....the RAF decides that Rohwedder needs to be eliminated. On 1 April 1991....someone takes a rifle, and kills Rohwedder (wounding his wife in the action as well). From the scene, there is absolute DNA evidence collected....leading to this RAF member Wolfgang Grams (originally out of Wiesbaden). In later discussions, the state prosecutor will say that the hair found at the scene is not enough to prosecute Grams. But the cops are more worried about his continued actions at this point....if he were on an agenda situation.
Grams, as part of this discussion.....has a girlfriend....Brigit Hogefeld.
Things get heated after the 1 April killing of Rohwedder. The police put a lot of pressure on finding Grams before he does more damage.
At some point in the early spring of 1993 (two years after Rohwedder is killed)....the police have some indications over where Hogefeld and Grams are located.
On 27 June 1993, the special police task force on terrorism....GSG-9, had Grams and Hogefeld tracked to the Bad Kleinen region (about an hour's drive east of Hamburg). The game-plan was to arrest them at the train platform there in the Bad Kleinen.
This didn't go too well. Grams reacts to the attempted arrest....pulls a weapon on the two policemen....wounding one and killing the other. The arrest of the girlfriend (Hogefeld) goes off without a problem. So in this brief moment or two with Grams holding a weapon....things get tense.
Grams either falls off the platform or is pushed. In this fall....either before or after....the accusation is that the police simply put a gun to his head, and shot him dead. Yep, execution-style. Grams is dead on the tracks.
In the days that follow....the newspapers shape the theme and message here....that the GSG-9 folks murdered the RAF guy....Grams. A hearing was held, and the court system said no....that Grams had actually put the gun to his head and went out via suicide. The newspapers continued with their story, and for three decades....that's been the belief in the general public.
Well....this weekend, the story got changed.
Shortly after this event, some witness came to the Spiegel news magazine and wanted to share their view of the event. Why not approach the police? Unknown.
So the witness sat down with a reporter and provided what was roughly sixty-pages of knowledge and information over what happened there on the platform. In simple terms, yes....the RAF guy....Grams....had committed suicide.
Spiegel's journalist (Leyendecker) took the 60 pages to his boss (Foerster). The story was discussed briefly as a cover-story for the news magazine. It would have shifted blame away for the execution story, and to a simple story of suicide.
What happened? Well....Spiegel dropped the entire story. No mention. The 60 pages got shuffled away into the archieves of the magazine. Focus (the magazine) brought up the whole story, and it's well worth reading. For some reason, in the last month....someone came across the 60 pages and it's being reviewed again. It'll probably be told as some page four story via Spiegel.
So what really happened? Fake news....more or less. Spiegel decided that the anti-government story was the big story, and simply refused to discuss anything other than that.
Rather than the story at this point.....let me tell the end-piece of this.
You see....the girlfriend of Grams matters. Hogefeld goes off to jail, and has a fair amount of time to think over what happened throughout the 1970s and 1980s. She's also witnessing the culture war that the RAF is waging.
Hogefeld will write an essay piece that basically says the 'war' is no longer valid. There is no purpose for the Red Army Faction. It's blasted in public by their anonymous voices but the simple truth is....Hogefeld is correct. The times have changed.
Delays occur with the court action over Hogefeld, and her conviction does not occur until November 1996 (four years after the arrest). She's given life in prison.
On 20 April 1998 (two years after her conviction)....there is a 8-page letter released by the Red Army Faction. They agree.....it's time to end the war. There is no purpose to exist anymore.
What happened to Hogefeld? At the 15-year point, in 2011, the German government releases her. Since that point, she's maintained a low profile.
So you turn and face the Spiegel 'problem'. The slant was....Grams was executed and they could have easily cleared the air. They failed. I doubt if that many Germans are shocked by the twist here. But this is the world we live in and why people are so skeptical about things now.
Final note....what if Grams and Hogefeld had kept a low-profile, and just never been arrested? Well....Hogefeld would have never reviewed the RAF purpose and the Red Army Faction would still be in existence today....killing German political figures as needed.
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