Thursday, June 4, 2020

How Quick Were the Brownshirts Disposed After the September 1930 Election?

It is an interesting discussion.

Going throuth the 1920s....the Brownshirts were a big element of success for the Nazi Party.  They led marches through towns and communities.  They intimidated the general public.  They were thugs on parade.

But then comes the 14 September 1930 election.  The Nazi Party is no longer bonded into a secondary group....they are on their own, and get near 18-percent of the vote.  A lot of this success?  It goes to the Brownshirts.

So we go through the July and November elections of 1932....each bringing Hitler nearer to complete authority.  March and November elections in 1933?  Same story.

At the end of 1933, the Brownshirts are figured to have near 3-million members across Germany.  Their plan (not Hitlers) is to merge the German Army in with them, and the Brownshirts would be this new model of militarism.  In essence, they'd manage the military system. 

Military officers at that point?  Very frustrated at the idea of professional military organizations being dragged into some combination 'pit' of Brownshirts.  On top of that, several big players of the Nazi movement are now worried about the leadership of the Brownshirts....fearing they might oust Hitler. 

So in the spring of 1934....a lot of secretive chatter starts end the Brownshirts.  Around the last week of June (1934), the decision is made.  The 'Night of the Longknives' will occur.  The vast leadership group of the Brownshirts will be ended. 

Today, it's figured that roughly 200 Brownshirt 'bosses' were executed around 30 June 1934.  A lot of Brownshirts were shocked at the action taken, and the movement basically died off  in the weeks and months after this day. 

If the Brownshirts had figured out their threat?  There's no doubt that they would have taken action, and likely terminated Hitler.  But at no point did they gather intelligence or figure out the actions coming at them.  Their leadership was walking step-in-step with Hitler....with glory days ahead. 

This period of demise?  You can start on 14 September 1930, and say from that day to 30 June 1934....they were heading toward an end-point.  All in four years.

This is the thing about thugs in support of a political will reach a point of success, and then reach a point where your help isn't appreciated anymore.  Then you get disposed of, and you just stand there wondering....what went wrong. 

The British 'Maddie' Story

So Germans are waking up this morning and finding this odd story going on with the missing Brit girl (Maddie McCann).  It involves a German.  Focus carries a decent description of the story.

The German Federal Police are looking at this 43-year old German guy.  There are multiple past crimes....with this guy involved in a fair number of things (including sex crimes with kids).

Late last year, he went off to prison for a 7-year period. 

Between 1995 and 2007, he regularly went to Algarve (the region where the McCann girl was).  What cops say is that his lifestyle while on 'vacation' was to break into houses, and sell drugs on the side.

There is enough there to suggest he might have been the one to abduct her.  But real evidence?  No, and the public is being asked via the public TV cop show to go back and try to remember things if they were in the region in 2007.  I know, this is really pushing things to find evidence 13 years later. 

Stimulus in the Making

Germans will wake up this morning to find that the Coronavirus stimulus package is mostly done.  Focus had a great update on this.

The amount in the discussion?  130 billion Euro (roughly 145-odd billion dollars).

The kid-bonus is in the deal (300 Euro per kid)....payable to the parent.  Kids will be asking mom what their 'cut' of the money will be.

A fair sum is being set up for development of hydrogen technology, which may worry the E-car folks a little.

Twenty-five billion is going toward cultural items and industry.

The chief question to ask?  Will this go and stimulate the economy....putting unemployed back to work and getting people off 'short-work'?  It's an unknown. Virtually all economists agree....recession is here, and will be sticking around through most of 2021.  The travel industry and airlines?  Screwed, in the royal sense.  The car industry?  It's damaged enough that people will be let go at some point in 2020.

Wednesday, June 3, 2020

Raids in Frankfurt Today

Early this AM (Wed) here in my local state of Hessen....cops were active on 'raids'.

From what the local HR (public TV in the Hessen state) reporting....there's around 27 homes/apartments being searched this morning, with a hefty number of cops involved in the operation. 

What this leads to?  Well....Ebay.

These 'punk' kids (cops won't say the ages, but it appears to be mostly in the 15 to 18 year old range) were setting up sales on Ebay, but didn't have the property to send.  Buyers were screwed via Paypal, and the amount discussed within the 'club' were 600 cases of fraud.  Cops figure a minimum of 200,000 Euro was involved.

What was being marketed?  Mostly all electronic gear....gamer computers, etc. 

So all part of one gang (27 members)?  That's the suggestion by the cops. 

I can imagine the parents sitting there, and asking questions....wondering where they got this stupid idea, and then wondering where the lawyer help will come from?  This will get real complicated.  And where the 200,000 Euro is today?  Unknown. 

My humble guess is that they figured that they could use some internet shop with anonymous names....walk in and create fake Ebay accounts, and then route the money to Paypal and then onto some non-German accounts (like in Turkey or Greece). 

This whole thing is centered around the north part of town. 

BLM in Europe?

Black Lives Matter in Europe?  Yes.

If you follow N-TV this morning, they hyped up the protests from yesterday in France....20,000 on the streets of Paris alone.  Other reports indicate Marseille and Lyon have riots going on as well.

Strictly racism and thug-cop talk?  Well.....there's some Antifa clad folks, and anti-capitalism figures into this as well.

The comical side of this?  Paris still has big Corona 'bans' in place, so you aren't supposed to be in groups bigger than ten.  Yeah, I know....riots just won't work unless you go past the ten number.

More to come?  I would suspect that Antifa riots will start up in Amsterdam, Hamburg, Frankfurt and Berlin within the next two weeks. 

Airline Chatter

There is a great business article over at N-TV today, which chats over the airline business, and how the recession path may go.

Lufthansa, for those who didn't grasp 'the' major German airline now, without any real competition at this point within the country.

If you count all of its assets....763 total planes.

So here's the curious thing since Corona came along and marginal travel started up....only 63 planes are flying now.  Yes....the massive bulk are sitting.

There are some plans to bring on more planes in June and July....but we probably aren't talking about more than a hundred  of them.

The plans for 2021?  At least 300 will NOT be flying (expectation of business not returning).

In fact, they are suggesting that 200 may be grounded through parts of 2022, depending on the recession and business expectations.

Basically, you read through the whole thing....the impression is that they need to sell off a number of planes.  Maybe a minimum of 200.....maybe on up to the 300 range.

Buyers?  No one says much.  Virtually every airline in Europe has the same issue, and there's simply not anyone there to buy the planes.

So what happens to ticket prices?  This is just me looking at the issue, but you'd have to almost double ticket get the pay-back for bank loans to cover what they spent to bulk up over the past ten years.

In the long term?  I'd be guessing that both Airbus and Boeing are going to seriously be hurting through the next five years.

Tuesday, June 2, 2020

More Stimulus Chatter

The German government is opening talking about Coronavirus stimulus money now.

The amount?  Eighty billion.  To be honest, it's not a heck of a lot.

A fair amount going to existing debt of towns and cities?  Yes.  This comes from an issue that popped up about five years ago, where a bunch of German financial experts for towns....had the town's credit tied to a number of Swiss banks (best rate of interest)....then one day, the Swiss flipped their exchange rate, and suddenly the amount of debt went up drastically.  Since that point.....the towns and cities have never fully recovered, and are still in deep debt to the Swiss banks.

The story goes that 28 billion of this 80 billion is going toward the railway system, roads, and bridges. 

Mobility vouchers?  Well, imagine been wanting an electric bike (in the 2,500 Euro range) and you'd use it (at least you hint that) for going to work.  So they want to issue some vouchers.  No one says the amount involved, but I kinda doubt that it goes past 400 Euro per consumer. 

Can you buy a decent E-bike for 1,000 Euro?  Hell no.  You don't even start getting to a decent cheapo version until you get to the 1,500 Euro level.  And for the better E-bikes, you'd be talking about a minimum of 2,000 Euro. 

Will these people even ride the bike daily to work?  That's another issue by itself.  Some folks might be real enthusiastic from May to September.....but lose that desire come the winter period.

The summer break starts up in roughly four weeks, so this 'package' has to be worked out and agreed upon by the CDU/CSU folks and the SPD Party. 

Will 80-billion be enough?  Probably not, but they don't want to get deeper into debt at this point.  Lets be honest, at least the 28-billion for bridges, roads and railways might be smartly spent and show something for the money.  But some of these railway projects are one-billion-plus Euro by this money probably isn't going too far. 

Monday, June 1, 2020

The Car Stimulus Deal

A fair amount of coalition work occurred this weekend, with discussions over the Corona stimulus package....between the CDU/CSU Party and the SPD Party.

The amount is already drafted up and known publicly.  It's to be in the five billion Euro range (roughly 6-billion US dollars).  How it works is the unknown.

Basically the only argument that came up here between the two 'camps'.....was whether you use the bulk of this money toward gas/diesel/hybrid/electric car sales, or simply hybrid/electric. 

The SPD folks?  They don't want gas or diesel cars to be in the mix.  They want to force the five billion Euro to be used only for the environmental 'answer'. 

For the manufacturing side of this.....they are kinda desperate for gas/diesel cars to sell....otherwise, you'd start to see downsizing plans laid out. 

Interest in the hybrid/electric side of this?  That's really the most significant problem.  The last two International Auto Shows out of Frankfurt....featured a lot of electric car displays.  People look at the offerings, ask some stupid questions, and simply avoid the discussion. 

Why the negativity?  I spent a lot of time looking over the idea, how the charging would affect me (and the wife), and the consequences. 

First, we do travel around Germany, and it's not unusual to drive to Munich.  From my location, with a full-charge, I could make it half-way to Munich before doing a re-charge.  Depending on which E-car I'd use....this recharge would require a minimum of 90 minutes and maybe up to six hours. That means I'd probably have to plan a major stop about halfway and anticipate this is going to eat up five hours of my time.  The cost of the re-charge?  We have a remarkable and high rate for electricity in Germany (lot of people fail to grasp that).  It's roughly 29-cents per KwH. 

The battery life?  Different batteries.....different outcomes.  The Tesla unit seems to be the 'Cadillac' of batteries.  Disposal cost of the old batteries?  No one is ever clear about this, and I often just wonder this discussion never occurs.  Somewhere around the 4th to 6th year.....if you intend to keep the car, a new battery likely comes into play.  The maintenance cost, along with the new battery, and disposal cost?  I just can't see this being done for less than 1,500 Euro.  Remember, you'd have to have this done by a qualified battery guy, and everything certified at the end.

But here's the hidden consequences discussion.  A lot of tax revenue is generated by gas and diesel sales.  If you suddenly had one-third of the nation on E-cars.....where will the tax revenue now come from?  No one from the journalism side or political side.....discusses this issue.  New taxes to come?  But how and where?

So frankly, I see this 5-billion Euro fund being created, and maybe a light bit of folks coming up in the next hundred days to buy new E-cars.  By December, I see the bulk of the money still there, and car companies having started terminations of manufacturing.  Consequences of the SPD Party?  You enter 2021 with a lot of people who work in the car industry who are angry....not a positive situation for a national election.