Tuesday, November 20, 2012

The Gun Story

“This year will go down in history. For the first time, a civilized nation has full gun registration. Our streets will be safer, our police more efficient, and the world will follow our lead into the future!”

- Quote from Adolph Hitler in 1935 on The Weapons Act (Germany)

It's an interesting story out of Germany.....the nation is fairly close now to a national database of guns and gun owners.

To be honest, over the last fifty-odd years.....every community police station had a paper trail of gun ownership.  If you went to the chief of police and asked him to list all the owners.....he could pull out a paper listing (usually cards), and that made everyone happy.

Well....we've come to a point where a digital database was the German goal.  Sometime early in 2013, all of the six million privately held guns in Germany will be in a national database.  From this, the 551 local 'counties' in Germany can now draw a serial number of person's name.

Is it actually an improvement?  If you had a crime committed by someone with a certain type pistol....it might help start a nation-wide investigation.  However, this listing only has the owners who admitted ownership.  The guys who bought four guns from a mafia guy a decade ago?  No.....his weapons won't be there.  The guy who got a Russian hunting rifle last year from a private collector in Moscow?  Well...no, his weapon probably won't be in the database.

How many illegal guns exist in Germany?  No one is sure.  I'd take a humble guess and state it's probably over one million.  Some are guns left over from World War II and guys just stored them in their basement without ever saying anything.

I can understand the basis of wishing a database would help....but in this case....it's probably worthless.

The quote I put up?  Yeah, it's from Hitler.  The Nazi regime figured out early in the 1930s that private gun ownership could eventually be a problem.  They didn't want anyone coming out in the evening hours and conducting a vendetta.  So guns had to be controlled.

Some Germans will be proud over the event and say they are closer to a protective society.  Frankly, if they lowered the speed limit on autobahns to 90 kph....they'd save a thousand lives a year, but they don't want to take that measure under consideration....so there are limits to just how many folks you'd like to save and how you do it.


Friday, November 16, 2012

Leave is Leave

A court case wrapped up in Germany, and basically...there was a very big twist to life as it was accepted.  Generally, a German can call up the boss in the morning and state they are sick, and they are not going to show up today.  No note or such.  The second morning?  Typically, you need to go and get a note from a doctor to cover the second or more days necessary.  Well....a court case has determined that you just might need to have a note to cover the first day.

This is a bit of a twist because millions of Germans use the old rule of just taking a sick day here and there....maybe five to ten a year....without every going for the note.

If you go and talk to most German small businessmen....they will all admit that the 2nd of January, if it falls on a work-day, there's always thirty percent of your work-force who call and state they are sick.  It's a lousy day to conduct business for most companies.

How many sick-days does a German get?  Well...it typically doesn't work that way.  If a German guy needs forty days to recover from surgery....he gets it.  No discussion.  But there's a note from the doctor to detail that.  The boss cooperates with the notes provided.  If the doctor stops recovery period, then that employee needs to start back to work immediately.

This all brings me to my favorite "sick-German" story.

There was a BX-run Burger King manager who arrived and spent several months managing his Army post Burger King in Germany.  He knew the shift-managers, and the junior employees.  Somewhere around eight months after he arrived....he's come down to some paperwork on employees.  There's two Germans listed on the paperwork....who he is not familiar with.

So he asks....who are these two Germans?  He's never met them.

The HR folks basically lay out this little issue with his Burger King operation.  These two German employees have stress-related issues.  For roughly a year, they've both been in stress-related programs and under treatment.  The BX....because they are German employees....has been paying them their monthly salaries with full benefits.

The manager is standing there....looking at roughly twelve months of free leave that the BX had granted these two German employees.  He wanted an estimate on when his employees would return.  The HR folks couldn't answer that.  So the manager wanted to go through the process of letting them go.  Oh no, as the HR folks responded....there are German rules on this and you can't fire or lay-off a German employee under these conditions.

So weeks go by and this manager is peeved over the deal.  Nothing like this would happen in America.  You'd let the guy go if they were that stressed out.

So eventually, he went through the system and found this simple rule....you could move people around in the BX system.  So he worked out a deal where the two Germans were to move into a pizza operation run by the BX.  Same pay....same work deal....just half-a-mile from the Burger King.  The pizza manager was willing to carry two stressed-out Germans on his payroll.

Naturally, the HR guys try to stop this, and the Union gets involved.  Everything went into a simmering situation after that.

It's been around a dozen years since the episode.  I would imagine that the two Germans are still on stress-leave, still working for the Burger King on post, and the BX is probably still paying their monthly checks.  It's just the way that things work.

Monday, November 12, 2012

Explaining the 2013 German Election to an American

This is an odd election coming up in Germany in 2013.

First, the CDU is probably at a peak of popular sentiment, but it won't draw more than roughly forty-four percent of the national vote.  Some folks would even say it's closer to thirty-eight percent.  To "win" in the real sense of the world....you have to build a collation deal with at least one other party.  It's the German way, and it's been this way for well over 100 years.

Second, the Pirate Party had some momentum a year ago....today....likely will carry less than five percent of the national vote.  That means under the Bundestag rules....they won't get to enter the Bundestag and be part of any collation deal.  You have to have five percent of the national vote.....to get into the 'big-house'.

Third, the SPD has pinned it mighty hopes on a fairly good show for the liberal voters of Germany.  But their choice for Chancellor probably isn't a great magnet for massive votes. Polls are split on where they stand, but most folks think they might be lucky to pull thirty percent.

Fourth, the Linke Party and the Greens....might both pull at least ten to fifteen percent of the vote.  Nether the SPD or the CDU will work any collation deal with the Linke Party, but they are both talking up deals with the Greens.

Fifth and final....the FDP Party might have used up all their momentum four years ago.  Some polls show them to be lucky in getting five percent of the national vote.

So, for an American....it's a cliffhanger of an election, and you just don't know how things might form up at the end.

Sunday, November 11, 2012

The End of the Fee

Just a couple of years ago...the Bundestag stood up and admitted that the bucket of money that everyone paid into....to cover health care insurance....was just not enough.

So a fee was put into place.  If you showed up at the doctor's office....you paid a ten-Euro fee for that quarter.  You could visit your German doctor as much as you wanted in that quarter, and you'd never have to pay again the quarterly fee.  But fresh into a new quarter, just one five-minute visit for a band-aide would trigger the fee again.

Germans had to do something to put a bit more cash into the pot.  Trying to suggest the percentage go up....wasn't going to work.

For the typical German....if you didn't go to the doctor much, the fee didn't matter.  For those of a senior age....this fee business was a source of various negative feelings.  Most folks were expecting the fee to increase every year or two....because of the cost trend.

This past week....with almost all parties in the Bundestag in agreement....they agreed to remove the stupid quarterly fee business.  Potential for it to return?  It's hard to say.

For an American, you have to come to realize that nothing is really free....even German health care.  You may have heard various comments via US media outlets that Germans enjoy free health care.  But that's all bogus in nature.  There's a price tied to everything.

In Prospective

There's this plan by the German government....to take down the nuke power plants in the years to come. There are a hundred issues with the plan, but this week....the government came out with a solution to one of the problems.  Replacing the power line transmission towers to lead from new concentrations of power production will cost money.  So the government is talking about this investment idea.

The idea is simple....create a opportunity for regular people to put their savings into helping the government  You put down your savings, and the government guarantees you five percent return each year.  The minimum?  Five hundred Euro.

You have to remember...it's only a plan.  Nothing has been implemented or really discussed in the Bundestag.

The curious point to this?  You don't get much of a return on German savings account....maybe one percent or a  bit over the top of that.  For a German bank CD?  Somewhere between two and two point five percent.

What the offer does....is make a fair number of Germans curious about the results.  How long does the money have to remain in the account....what extra rules are written over this....and is it tax-free?

For an American who has ventured into the Germany and seen the investment opportunities...this is a rare gem, if it is ever approved.  In today's market, you just can't find a guaranteed return like this.

The negative side to this deal?  Well...for you folks who do buy German energy....which is pretty much guaranteed thing....you can expect to pay more for what you get when the nuke energy is finally turned off.  You have to pay these folks their guaranteed five percent.  So there is a consequence in the end to this fine offering.  Nothing is ever free.  


Thursday, November 8, 2012

That Customer Thing

There's a story over at the Local today....detailing a survey that basically says that Germans think (a German never thinks....he's absolute in his nature usually)....that customer service across the German countryside ...is going down drastically.

For an American, we are typically used to bad customer service.  We do realize when we've been dealt with in a professional manner and it was a good experience.  We remember that company, and go back to them again.  Bad companies....we tend to avoid and never buy again from them.

For a German, customer service can be fifty percent of the deal.  A German would be willing to pay 400 Euro ($500) for a really good coffee maker....if they knew the customer service branch works and if a warranty issue comes up....they know they will be handled correctly.  When the product arrives at the front door....they immediately take the receipt and the warranty paperwork.  There's a binder somewhere in that house and everything is maintained carefully.

In thirty-four months....if the item does break and there's still two months of warranty left....you can beat that customer service will be engaged.  You as a German business have to have your customer relations team working right.....or you lose customers permanently.  No German typically returns to a lousy business operation.

In all the years that I dealt with most German businesses....I'd give most a thumbs up.  German government offices?  That would be a totally different deal.  The government offices don't care if you feel hostile or angry over their services.  They know that you have no choice....but to return.  I'd say roughly half of my visits to a German government office left a negative opinion about the situation.

I sat and watched a license office strike down a application from a Swiss guy who had moved into the district....for the second time....because the picture was not correctly taken.  This was in this period when you had to hire a professional photographer to take license pictures.  The guy had wasted two trips and spent at least thirty Euro on two separate shootings, and still couldn't get acceptance.  The office handled the situation in a lousy way....they even had to call the cops because the guy just wouldn't leave.

The general thing I take home about German customer relations is that they tend to go by the book.  If the situation is X, the book says you take only this action, and the German customer relations guy goes exactly by the book.  It's hard to write a decent book of rules to cover every type of situation....so thing happen which aggravate people greatly.

The most negative experience I've seen?  It's probably these episodes where someone calls and is put on a minute-by-minute charge, and they don't come back to you for ten minutes.  You suddenly realize that even with 79-Euro cents....you've raced up 7.90 Euro and still not gotten a guy to respond to your question.  For a German, that 7.90 Euro wasted on empty space, and it just makes them start wondering how they could have spent the money....like chocolate or a slice of cheese cake.  So breeds hostility.

Monday, November 5, 2012

The Starbucks Story

Starbucks made a decision about six years ago....to finally establish itself in Germany.  They knew that it was a tough situation, and that it might take a decade to really say it was fully established.  At the start of 2012....they had roughly 150 Starbucks in operation.  It was fewer than planned, but it's been a tough market.

This week....it got out that they cleared 117 million Euro in 2011, and their final tax bill for the German government....was zero.  Reason?  Losses of significance: roughly 5.3 million Euro.

It's a fair amount of loss.  Most business operations would ask tough questions....look for a new profit strategy....dump a manager or two to emphasis change....and look for new places to expand out into.

The German response to the profit and tax situation?  Well....this gets to be interesting.  They can't understand how the tax bill can be zero.  Starbucks is totally prepared for some tax audit guys to walk in.  The general feeling is that high rental cost and high personnel cost (healthcare, pay, retirement, etc)....make Germany a very tough market to operate Starbucks.

So I'll offer some observations here.  Starbucks isn't the cheap place where you go for plain coffee.  Starbucks sells high-quality coffee....typically in a location that high volumes of people will be walking through or hanging out.  German real estate people aren't stupid....they know the volume locations and charge a fair amount of money.  Starbucks pays it....which typically, few other German coffee shops would be that stupid.

Do Germans pay upscale prices for coffee?  Well....that's another story.  You have observe Germans for years....to reach a conclusion that they demand absolutely great coffee.  They don't want the cheap stuff.  They will go an extra block to find a bakery that sells not only the right pastry or rolls, but the right coffee, and pull out an extra bit of cash for that four-star coffee.  Starbucks fits easily into this market.

The Germans might be terribly upset about a company making limited profit and not paying any taxes.....but here's the thing.  The German government made the stupid tax rules.  Starbucks hasn't hired some dimwit to do all the corporate taxes in Germany.  They likely went by the rules established, and the audit guys will sit there for weeks....finding few if any mistakes.  At the end....the audit will close with no change, and the political folks will just shake their heads.

What ought to infuriate Germans in general....a company has made a serious attempt to establish itself....spent millions....and over six years....barely shows any profit at all.  A normal German company would give up because you can't beat the system.  If you were making a hundred Euro a day, and then declaring five Euro in losses each day....you'd want to focus on some other model or question how you could make it long-term.

Starbucks simply stays focused.  We'll pay your high health insurance rates.  We will pay higher than average wages.  We will pay higher than average rental costs.  Eventually, we will have a significant number of Germans addicted to Starbucks and determined to stop by each day.  It may take another decade to establish Starbucks-addiction is part of German society, but it will come one day.

For the German tax guys....they have to be hoping other companies don't pick up this attitude....because you can't afford to have a bunch of companies in Germany paying no national taxes.  It'd destroy the current system.  Meanwhile, if you are are in the middle of Wiesbaden....near Kirchgasse 35....you might want to stop in and have some pretty decent coffee.  Thank the guy for running a unprofitable enterprise, and have a long sip of pretty decent coffee.

Sunday, November 4, 2012

A Little Drug Story

For an American watching business unfold.....there was this interesting piece from yesterday.  The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper had an article over the Greek financial crisis, which connected back to Germany.

The German drug company....Merck....reached a point where trust in getting paid for deliveries....wasn't there.  So Merck told Greece.....there's an end to normal business.  If we were talking about suntan lotion or aspirin....no one would care.  This has reached the point where cancer treatment drugs....are now on a list of 'cash-only' situations.

If you are a Greek with cancer and were heavily dependent on the government health system to save you....this little additive has gotten into the system.  You only get four-star drugs....if you pull cash out of your savings and pay the local pharmacy to special-order the stuff.  Your beloved national health insurance....is worthless.

I'm guessing that Merck is prepared to Fedex the treatment drugs within minutes after a cash transaction has occurred, and the Greek pharmacy will likely have the drug within thirty-six hours.

The problem is that it's another occasion where trust in some government function is non-existent, and you have to make up for that with cash....out of your pocket or your savings.

I believe that the Greek newspapers will run with this....talking trash over the evil Merck folks, and the evil Germans.  The problem is that Merck only exists....if they are profitable.  If folks start a game to delay payment or stretch payment from weeks into months....then Merck isn't likely to survive long-term.

Germans will sit and look at the implications ...some poor Greek guy in terrible shape....dying of cancer, unless he gets fancy German drugs.  I imagine there's going to be hostile feelings directed internally at Merck by naive Germans.

Bottom line....if you live in a country with a one-star economy built by the political folks you elected into office....you will eventually end up with a one-star living environment.  Germans figured that out decades ago.

Friday, November 2, 2012

A German Discovers His Country

This week, we learned that a German guy, and his German wife....who had converted over to Islam....came to some vast discovery of reality.

The couple bought into the various propaganda dump, and eventually believed that they could be part of a great and wonderful revolution....in Pakistan.  So they pack up....swear an oath, become Muslims, and then discover that western Pakistan is some place that German just doesn't belong.

The jihad business, the camps, the nasty conditions, the extreme violence.....it was all way more than he ever imagined.

It took about a year to convince him that he and the wife had signed up for something that just wasn't going to work.  But the jihad guys came back and did some serious talking, and convinced the German guy that things might get better.  They didn't.  He mentioned in court testimony this week that drug usage around his Taliban buddies was becoming a serious issue.  The guys in charge didn't care.

At some point in 2010....they apparently came to this vast realization.  The wife was pregnant....the guy had hepatitis, and nothing looked worth fighting for.  So they ran over to Turkey....got across the border where they were promptly apprehended and held for almost two years by the Turks while they sorted through the stories and gathered intelligence.  Then they came back to Germany where they faced some charges.

If you put yourself into the mind of this guy.....he's probably kissing German soil every single morning.  He gets a standard schnitzel every other day in jail.  He probably listens to German pop music and has a top-ten list.

He's also probably thinking about all those guys sitting back in Pakistan....doped up....listening to some Mullah lead them prayers and then order them to attack some innocent villagers.  Some guys survive....some die.....and new recruits arrive each month.

If I were the German government....I'd offer him a free deal....an exit from jail and no prison situation.  You agree to make a two-minute advertisement to explain how you got doped (in the mental sense) by some Muslim clerics who don't really care about your or your welfare.  The Mullahs want you to be stupid enough to convert, dump Germany, and fly into Pakistan to be part of some big life-adventure.   Over the last ten seconds, you'd start to explain how you really screwed up.  There's something good about Germany and German culture....it just took a while in a screwed situation and miserable country....to figure that out.