German Fed Police Union Chief Speaks

 There's a piece on Focus today, where the chief of the federal police union spoke up over a new issue.  Amusing in some way.....a sign of the times in other ways.

The head of LKA (the German federal police) handed down new instructions.

First, the members of the police have been told not to use the term 'refugee'.....the correct term is 'people seeking protection'.

Second, in the past, if the police were trying to use a term for criminals from Lebanon, Turkey or the 'region'.....they'd say 'southern'.  Well....that term is now strongly discouraged.  The new term?  'West Asian'.

Third, in the past where police would utter a statement which mentioned women who wore headscarf's, identified people as stupid, identified people of a certain race, or suggested that people were mentally deficient.....the police are now encouraged just not to mention any of these conditions, period.

I would imagine most of the police will laugh over the instructions, and spend a fair amount of time on social media criticizing the language business/instructions. 

Generally, the German public will use a number of words to describe stupid people.  Some of those?  Arschgeige, is a good example.  Translated?  It goes to a person who always screws up and translates into 'butt violin'. 

You could also use 'Evolutionsbremse'.....which typically means a person who exists on the planet to hold up the advancement of mankind. Translation?  It  means a 'brake for evolution'.

I should also note this....there's a national handbook for journalists, written by an association....which went to a evolutionary stage around 2015.  They also wrote word changes and tried to hype journalists to avoid non-woke situations or stir up public frustration with the same 'regulation' mentality.  

All of this change on words....leading to 'wokeism'?  Probably

Five Questions

 1.  Was the Merkel-Russia policy of the past two decades a success?

Well....various journalists will argue about this, and even half of the CDU folks will deflect and just try to avoid answering the question....but the policy was mostly about letting cheap natural gas, oil and coal be bought by the Germans....keeping the economy always in a positive light.

Oh, and for the record.....don't go expecting much out of the Scholz coalition for the remaining three years on the Russia policy.

2.  Is 2023 a pretty historic year for Germany?

Well....a hundred years ago, there was an attempted Nazi putsch in Munich.  Bavarian police put it down, without any federal help.  It'll probably be discussed a good bit in 2023.

If the putsch had been successful in Bavaria?  It would have progressed onto Berlin, and a national civil war would likely have come from this mess.  With France still occupying the NW coal and steel regions....it would have created a serious end to the German coalition of states.   

3.  Winter heat-wave presently?

Locally, at 14 C for today, and 16 C for tomorrow.  Here's the thing....no one says anything about global warming because of the natural gas crisis, and dramatic costs for heat this winter.

4.  Isn't the bulk of Russia's decline in the war due to logistics?

While crappy leadership, poor strategy and exceptional dismal training are parts of this....yeah, the bulk of the 'show' is a logistics failure.  They weren't designing a plan for a 365-day war....it was supposed to be a 72-hour front....massive fall by Ukraine, and victory everywhere. 

I should add....the loss of 2,000 tanks probably doesn't set the stage for any resolution for the Russians.

5.  Is deindustrialization getting uttered a lot in Germany?

Probably every night,  via ARD or ZDF news....there's some piece where a manufacturing 'arm' in Germany has made manpower cuts, or noted a part of their production will be on non-German soil.  You can blame various factors on this....it's not one single problem.

But here's the key thing.....there's an approaching problem of limited manpower for various companies, and no national solution to counter this.  So, maybe industry moving out is a positive.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  There's hype this AM via N-TV news....that Putin is about to announce the next round of mobilization or forced recruitment of reservists, and this will revolve around a new order.....a closed border for x-amount of time.  

How many men?  Unknown.  But I would suggest this....you probably are getting close to the point where the current economy can't function in a competent way because so many guys have been removed from the system.

2.  I walked into my local bakery, which has since the summer of 2020....had a plastic shield (basically a standing plexiglass unit extending over a meter long) up as Covid-protection....between the customers and the bakery crew.  Apparently, this week.....the bakery proclaimed the epidemic over, and has removed the plastic shield.  My humble guess?  It's probably stored in the back, and they could bring it back up in a matter of two minutes.  

Covid really over?  No....it's just that it's regarded more or less like the flu now.

3.  WELT says around 200,000 Ukrainian kids are in Germany as students, and the German system is stretched to the limit.  More fed funding....they say....will be necessary.

4.  Regionally, around Frankfurt, another major activist effort will start on the 6th of January.  There's supposed to be a forest area cleared (the Fechenheimer Forest in east Frankfurt) where the construction work will start for the Riederwald tunnel.

A massive old forest?  Well....NO.  This is an area of roughly 1 km by 1 km.  I'd describe it more as a managed forest area, with trails/paths, a kid's playground, skate park, and 'pond'.  

There's an effort underway to connect A66 and A661.  There's a 2.2 km area missing a 'connection'.  To resolve this....for probably 30 years, there's been this evolution of plans and the approved one for now is to build a 1.1 km tunnel under the forest area....to bring A66 and A661 autobahns to a final connected status.

The activist angle?  Well....by tearing down this forest path for the tunnel (which the intent is to replant the area at the end)....you are dissolving the 'holy' aspects of the area.  The fact that several parking lots, and the kid's playground was built already on the 'holy' land?  It kinda makes the agenda business a joke.  

But by getting the local environmentalists active....there's to be serious PR work and a chance to get their brand/message out to the general public.

I should note....the autobahn folks say that traffic density on the streets around the wooded area in question...would diminish by one-third, once the tunnel and connection are finished.  

5.  I sat and watched a regional update over various Christmas markets in the Hessen region.  A slide popped up....over profits for 2019 and for 2022.  2019 was the last time we had normal period for the Christmas market business.

According to current data....the average market met and exceeded 2019's numbers by 10-percent....which means it was a pretty profitable episode.  

A Little German Tiger Story

 So via social media in the past week or two....German cops noticed one of the crime gangs around Berlin.....had a photo up of their gang members....in the house, with a pet tiger.  

Cops dug out the laws, and there's a law that prevents exotic animals like this....unless you have a permit/license.  

So they rigged up a raid (knowing the gang's address).  I should note....the house in question is NOT owned by the gang....it's rented.

The cops arrive and this raid takes place.  Members of the gang are there....but no tiger.

So an investigation starts up.

From what they figure out.....there's a circus (they do have a license/permit) and they have a tiger (young) that they rent out for parties.  So the gang hired up the circus folks to bring the tiger by.  

The circus says (maybe it's completely true) that they were there for mostly 15-to-20 minutes.  No one says what they were paid but it has be more than a couple hundred Euro.  From the basic story....it seems like the gang folks mostly wanted their pictures taken with the tiger.  Then the circus guys left, with their tiger.

The raid?  Well....more or less....a bust.  

The real owners of the house?  They are a bit peeved over the negative attention and seem to suggest that they don't need raids or tigers in the mix.  

The odds that the gang will hire up more exotic animals in the future?  Oh....I would suggest that this might be a repeatable thing...just to see how fast the cops react.  

If The Last Generation Activists Were A Business.....

 For the past couple of months, I've viewed a good bit of the activist action around Germany, how the news media covers them, and how the general public sees the intent.

If the Last Generation activists were a business.....they are selling a crappy product with amusing dedication, and the customer base....even with the hyped-up news media.....just aren't buying into the message or the 'brand'.

Germans having to explain why they are late to a dental appointment, or a job interview, or a cancer treatment....by stating they were held for almost an hour while cops were detaching the 'kids' from the glue on the pavement?  It's not exactly something that any German views with a positive outlook.

The message that gets brought up on the chat forum business?  Well....splash-splash-splash....all things are evil, and you need to just take everything serious.  If you lined up priorities and just said international flights for ten consecutive years would end (no one travels more than 500 km)....then fine, do it and get on with priorities after that point.  

So people view the whole glue thing, childish fits and behavior demonstrated....like 8-year old kids cut loose from mature adult control, and disrupting society to get their way accomplished.  

My suggestion would be for the activists to settle back and find a brand/message that is more easily assembled and says the solution is A, B and C.  We don't need to destroy civilization or wreck capitalism to reach x-solution.  I should also note.....if we do A, B, and C.....then discover that they had nil-effect on the issue....I might turn to the activists and ask if they really understood the problem in the first place.

Also, for the news media.....you might want to ask the audience how often they are hitting 'mute' when some 2-minute report comes up, and if anyone really cares for the messaging that comes from the news crowd.   

Three German News Stories

 1.  Last night, I watched a 9:45 PM ARD (public TV, Channel One) update on smoking in Germany.  Apparently, in the past year, among German 14 to 17 year old kids.....the smoking rate has doubled (up to around 16-percent admit smoking regularly).

In the 18-to-24 year old group....it's now up to around 41-percent.

Why?  No one really has an explanation for this.  

2.  Food bank usage in the past year in Germany?  Doubled.  Up to around 2-million need a minimum of one visit a month. Recession has triggered the growth for the most part.

3.  If you wanted telegram service via Deutsche Post?  It ends on 1 Jan 2023.  They admit....it's just really rare that anyone sends one now. 

Just An Odd Thing I Noticed

 I went to a mega furniture shop in the Darmstadt area yesterday.  Literally a couple thousand displays.  So you come to notice for every book shelf in the background....books.  

I would take a guess....probably in the range of 12,000 to 15,000 books within the store.

The majority?  Probably around 10-percent were Lothar Matthaus's (German soccer legend) life story....from 2012.  

There's around thirty of this mega shops for this 'chain'....so when they put in this order for the book...they probably bought in the way of 100,000 copies of his book.  Course, they probably got the discount price, but they helped to inflate the national number of sales for this particular book.

Just an odd thing.  

German Movie Review: Nebenan (Next Door)

 I sat and watched Nebenan last night via Netflix, from 2021.  

First, I will say it's probably one of the ten best German films I've seen, and would strongly recommend it (via Netflix, it has English sub-titles)

Second,  Daniel Bruhl plays the lead part (an actor) and Peter Kuhl plays the ex-Stassi agent.  Between the two of them....some fine performances and both should have been up for an Academy award.

Third, whatever you were thinking at the 15-minute point of the movie....prepare yourself for a 5-star twist or two.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  One of the top SPD promises after the 2021 election....they would push to build 400,000 apartments (a year) throughout Germany to bring 'balance' to the shortage of homes in urban centers.

Well...N-TV picked up the topic and did some chat with the German housing industry folks.  It won't happen.

Blame?  Several factors: energy problems, lack of skilled workers, various shortages of building materials.  

Their best guess on how many will be built in 2023?  250,000 apartments.  

2.  Some hype gathering up on China relaxing it's travel policy on Covid.  Some Europeans now worried that Chinese tourists will arrive with Covid.

3.  Just an odd 'fake' story.

Some Syrian guy figured up this scheme in Germany to have a 'major' concert of a fairly well known Syrian singer.

The concert was to be held in Ilsfeld (Baden-Wurttemberg region in SW).  A hall was rented, but the guy who signed the contract....indicated it'd be for a wedding....NOT a concert.

So days passed and tickets were sold (170 Euro for each, which seems hefty but maybe you got drinks included).

Concert day arrives....around 300 folks paid for ticket, and arrived to find no singer, and the rent-guy had disappeared.  Yeah, 51k Euro collected off the scam.  Take out the 1,000 Euro for the hall.  

Cops looking for the guy.

3.  Fireworks go on sale today in Germany, until Saturday morning, for Silvester celebration.  Some major urban areas have banned the sales.

4.  Temp expected for Saturday evening (Silvester)....near 45 F degrees.  Just awful warm for this time of year.  In my local Wiesbaden area.....Sunday afternoon is expected to reach 18 C (64 F).

5.  Poll done on Covid in Germany.  Around two-thirds of the polled folks say the epidemic is not done for them.....it continues on. Bulk of polled folks say that the mask situation on buses and trains should continue.  

If you walk around German grocery stores?  I'd say one out of five people still wear a mask.  I was in the center of Wiesbaden's shopping district yesterday, and would guess about one out of eight people both in the stores and on the sidewalk....were masking up.  

On the bus/train thing....key factor is that long before Covid came along....if you tested sanitation onboard buses and train....there was all kinds of bacteria out there, and in the flu season....things got easily passed around.  No one argues about this fact.

But it's amazing to review the difference between Christmas 2021 and 2022.  Theaters are open....no funny rules on stepping into a pub for beer.....restaurants totally open today.  

Two Stories

 Today, the head of the Russian Duma....Medvedev....had forecasts for 2023.  

There were two of these of interest.

First, he says the UK will apply and rejoin the EU in 2023.  BS?  If you went to a vote, the 'remain-in-the-EU' crowd would probably clear 60-percent on this go-around.  It's possible.

Second, Medvedev says a new 'Fourth Reich' will occur.  

In this scenario he describes.....Germany will combine with the Baltic states, Poland, and what remains of the Ukraine.  Yeah, he does indicate a Nazi-like situation.

BS?  About 98-percent.  

Germany has zero interest in expansion.  Even if asked about annexing some area of Europe....there's probably less than 1-percent interest in annexing Poland or Austria.  

Military-wise?  I would suggest Germany is probably at the weakest point since 1945.  The whole suggestion is a comedy of sorts.  

Even if you went around to the various political parties.....neither the CDU/CSU or SPD would have an ounce of energy for this.  

But for the Russians....they still dream about the next great war....even if their military is now completely decimated.    

Ten German News Stories

 1.  Focus had a early AM piece discussing the impending property tax 'shock' to come in 2023.  On average, they say, most German property owners will see a 20-percent rise in property taxes.  

2.  Two war stories over Russia this AM: (1) Putin says this about the oil price cap that the EU intends to push shortly.....on 1 Feb, he won't respect the price cap (for 5 months).  So if you won't pay X-amount of what they believe is the market price....he won't sell it to you.  Hint, it means a shortage of oil on the market, and it'll drive prices even higher.  (2) Ukraine says in the past week, they've had literally hundreds of calls from Russian military folks or their wives, on how to surrender or give up.  BS-factor?  Some of this is probably BS, but most of these guys were just regular civilians a month ago, and not really trained for what Putin wanted them to accomplish.

3. Fairly strong indicators falling into place for a war-situation between Kosovo and Serbia.  

4.  Just odd, the pension 'insurance' system here in Germany ended up with a surplus of 2-billion Euro. How?  Well....the way it's explained....Covid took out a bunch of people from the 'formula'.

5.  If you go to any urbanized fire department or ambulance crew operation in Germany....they will tell you over the past decade....things have been hectic and violent in their professions. 

Well....their 'association' has come up and suggested that it's time to write law that injects jail-time into the lives of those who harm/threaten them.  No one says what the jail-time will be, but it wouldn't shock me if this ended up being a minimum of six months in a state jail.  

A lot of this involving drugs or alcohol fueling the 'rage'?  Oh yeah.....cops would say the same thing.  

6.  This 'Green Vault' robbery of diamonds in Dresden, which the authorities have recovered the bulk in the past week or two....has an interesting twist.  It appears that a crime family 'clan' was behind the robbery.  It also appears that the Remmo family 'boss' didn't really sanction this, and he got into the middle of the situation to talk a deal with the cops (out of Berlin).  

7.  There's a massive internal gov't fight going on about Covid now.

The FDP is pushing hard to end masking-up and to say the epidemic is over.  The Health Ministry has a serious problem accepting this....mostly due to the staffing issues (illness and shortages).....plus hospital wards filling up with sick folks (mostly due to the flu).  

There's going to be a state-fed combined meeting in early 2023, and this is the top subject.  

Masking requirements presently?  Fifteen of the sixteen states require masks on buses/trains.  All of the states mandate masks in clinics/hospitals.  

I do agree, there's a good bit of flu going around....but the Covid numbers are just not what they were in 2020 or 2021.  

8.  There's been a quiet 'push' to have just one single media library for public TV (ARD and ZDF combined for their 'assets' being available to the public).  It makes economic sense.  

Well...a statement came up from the ZDF director of operations.  'No' is his response.  He thinks the two must continue to operate two totally separate media libraries.

A big deal?  Over the past year, the wife and I have used the media library capability maybe three times.  If you missed a program from public TV.....you can go back and find it. It is stupid that they run two costly library programs.

9.  WELT has a curious article this AM....talking over the German environmental activist group ('Last Generation').  Something that has become obvious now....the bulk of the make-up (figured in the 1,200 range) are sons and daughters of fairly well-off people.  WELT even used the term 'elite' for their description of these 'kids'.

So WELT asked the question....are the regular-path educated young people just not that hyped-up for the brand-name or mission created by Last Generation?  

10.  Via N-TV, GAZPROM (the Russian natural gas company) says it wants to repair one of the two Nord Stream pipelines....damaged several months ago in explosions.  

The culprits of the damage?  Never identified, and most of the efforts have led people to believe that the Russian gov't was NOT behind the damage.  

This begs a lot of questions.  But for repairs?  Cost is figured at $500-million, and there's the issue of sea water damage to the interior of the pipe.  Amount of time required to fix this?  Journalists suggest a full-year.  

Why GAZPROM might be interested?  Well....eventually the war will end, and they'd like the income levels to return to normal.  I would imagine the German gov't probably feels the same way.  If I were a betting person....they will find that repairs to Nord Stream I aren't practical, and that only Nord Stream II makes sense....forcing the Germans to activate that pipe if the repairs are successful.  

Name Change Story

 The Foreign Ministry of Germany had a conference room in the main headquarters....named after Chancellor Bismarck (yeah, he's been dead since 1891).  He served as Chancellor from 1871 to 1890.

In the past month, the Foreign Minister (Baerbock, Greens) announced the end of the 'name' of the room.  It had to go.  

Oddly enough....it was more or less a 1-paragraph announcement, the Bismarck room would no longer exist.  New name?  'Hall of German Unity'.  

What this is about?  In this era of 'cancel-culture'.....Bismarck has been on the bad-boy list for a few years now.  Across Germany, you can probably find 35 to 40 statues around Germany of Bismarck today.

His achievements worth bragging about?  Most of the big social progressive advancements of Germany....came from his era.  

His negatives?  Virtually everything had a script, and anyone trying to change or flip his script....became an enemy of Bismarck.  For every rational act that he carried out.....there's probably an irrational act existing as well.

The room change a big deal?  No.....when you take into consideration that the 'Hall of German Unity' probably has a five-year life span, and it'll be flip to another name eventually.  

2022 and the German Cannabis Business

 Last year, around this same time....if you gleaned the hype from various national news organizations....legal cannabis (weed) in Germany was going to be one of the big accomplishments by the end of 2022.  

At some point in mid-2022....they started to let you know that various EU rules stood in the way of legalizing marijuana.  

Here now?  Most of the hype has dissolved....there is a draft law being passed around but it's getting zero traction.  

I'm not pro-or-anti-cannabis.....I just find it funny how it became a political topic which around half the nation would support legalization, and the politicians can't seem to find any path to approve it.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  Excellent piece via Focus this AM....talking about the Last Generation environmental activists.  Strongly recommend a read.

FDP Party individual who is also a psychologist....sat through a 4.5-hour seminar sponsored by the activist, and basically described the situation as a brain-washing episode.

Activists are taught that their actions 'fulfill' happiness.

In some ways, they've developed into a cult-like status.

2.  Some chatter going on about the Russian T-14 'super-tank', which might be soon deployed into the Ukraine war-front.  

Mid-summer last year, the production business had finished roughly 20 of these new generation tanks.  There was hype that over 2,000 of the tanks would be delivered by the mid-2030s.  

3.  There was a brief piece on N-TV news this AM....that around 60-percent of clinics in Germany are heavily into debt, and could possibly face bankruptcy in 2023.  Health Ministry taking some actions, but it may be too late.  Covid basically hyped-up the financial issues they were already facing.   

4.  If you pick up a Tuesday WELT, there's a piece discussing the number of Islamist threats in Germany (520 in number).  The Federal Police say it's lower than in previous years.  It does outnumber right-wing or left-wing extremists that they are currently monitoring.

5.  Poll done and reported via WELT....on German public opinion about immigration and asylum.  Roughly two-out-of-three Germans are pretty skeptical over the current program allowing asylum.  They aren't saying anything seriously negative....just that the current program isn't functioning as advertised.  

Three Observations in Germany

 1. Last night, via ZDF (public TV, Channel Two), I sat and watched Dali Dali (basically a game show with some physical 'tests'), with ten promis as participants.

About 70-percent through the show....they had some test where you had to wear a rabbit outfit (no joke) and perform some phsyical action with a 'tail' attached.  The actress gal was in the middle of this, slipped badly with her knee....fell to the ground, and they cut video for a while....luckily, this was taped.  She went off to the hospital and things continued on.

In the past month, this was the second such episode on these game shows....with this guy brought to a ice rink....told to wear bowling-type shoes, and he fell on his hip.  In this episode, it was live, and they cut to a extra long commercial.

I doubt if there's a week that goes by where German TV production has some physical test like this, and you can see all rigged with various risk factors.  

2.  This situation with the new German property tax has taken a weird turn.  You, as the owner of a house or condo, have to turn in a data-set.  At the end of January....you must submit your 'package'....giving each state government certain data.

Presently?  Almost 50-percent of property owners have not accomplished the act.  

Chief reason?  My wife spent several weekends trying to accomplish what they said was a easily 20-minute session with the internet connection.  She would continually be told from the fields filled out.....she was incorrect.  After wasting two hours, she'd get frustrated and just quit for the weekend.  Eventually, she conversed with someone who gave her the insider tip which field was 'corrupted', and filled it out.  

What happens if people fail to accomplish this?  There's supposed to be a fairly severe fine.

3.  Inviting trouble.....there's a story going around that the Wagner contractor group (out of Russia, the ones who handle private mercenaries) believes too many Russia rich folks hold money, and should be forced to hand it to the government.  

If you wanted Oligarch hype....this would do it.

Five German News Stories

 1.  In my local area (Wiesbaden)....city officials late yesterday (24th) put out a warning NOT to go to any of the city emergency rooms because of a limited staff, high sickness rate, etc....UNLESS you are in a dire emergency.  

2.  New incoming ARD (public TV, Channel One) chief says: "We don't talk to each other anymore."

Tom Buhrow also said: "The idea that we must agree at some point?  No, you don't have to."

Several suggestions that he's going to reform ARD/ZDF in some fashion.  

3.  Some piece on N-TV this AM....suggesting that various people within the Kremlin circle have kept problems out of the sight of Putin, and he may not be in full view of what's going on in the country.

4.  'Last Generation' activists had some kind of plan to disrupt the Christmas eve service (to have been broadcasted via ARD).  Cops 'knew' of the interruption-event (begs questions how).

ARD and the church instead...had a pre-practice event staged on Friday, and taped it.  That was what was used for the Saturday evening TV showing.  Activists arrived at the church in question.....to find it closed on Saturday evening.  

The odds that their cellphones and e-mails/chats are being monitored?  I'd give it a 99-percent possibility.  I don't think the activists are smart enough to realize the amount of open 'talking' they are doing or the possibility of undercover agents within their group.  

5.  This 69-year-old French guy who wounded three and killed three in Paris....in the Muslim community....has been referred to a mental ward.  A lot of destruction from riots yesterday (Sat).  

Christmas Eve TV Viewing in Germany?

 Don't get excited.

There's a pretty lame 2-star Flughafen Christmas movie (from 2021)....which I watched last year....on ARD.

Via ZDF, you can watch a musical collection of tunes.

Via SAT1, you can watch Kevin Alone.

The Grinch is on RTL.

Iron Man III is on Pro7, with Transformers coming on after that.

Name of the Rose is on Kabel1.

Die Hard, Con Air, Rambo I, Rambo II, and Rambo III are set for RTL 2.

If you stay up to 22:40 on SWR, they are running the 30 minute piece of Family Henz Becker on a Christmas adventure.  It's actually a good humored piece, from the 1990s.  

Yeah, if you were expecting anything better?  No....that's not the tradition in Germany and I would imagine half of the normal TV audience has the TV turned off, and into some family setting.  

Whats All the Hype of Riots in Paris From Yesterday (and Probably Today)?

 Well.....the authorities in the past couple of days released a 69-year old former railway driver from jail.  

The guy went into the Kurdish part of Paris, and shot six people.....three of them dead.  

Cops got to the guy (he's alive at this point).  

As soon as his past history was laid out (he's had this negativity about migrants a good bit).....the Kurd community went ballistic.  

Five Environmentalist 'Creations' I Expect

 These are five things I tend to believe the youthful Greta-kids or 'Last Generation' crowd will be pushing in the next year or two:

1.  Limits on Christmas trees cut and not sold by the 24th.  I expect some agenda to start up where various tree sales operations will curtailed or regulated.  

2.  I expect some agenda to start where a restaurant is regulated and can only serve up 1,200 calories on a plate, per guest, per visit.  The hype will be that you shouldn't consume more than half your daily calorie count....thus saving food for the 'world'.

3.  I expect lithium batteries to be identified as 'evil', and attempts to halt E-car production by condemning the batteries.  This will center primarily on the way that the mineral is mined.  

4.  I expect all plastic bags in the fruit/vegetable areas of German markets....to be identified as 'evil' and forced to be removed.

5.  I expect car washes in Germany to be condemned as a waste of water.

What Ukraine Says About Russian 'Losses'

 A lot of BS, but then....you can't trust the Russian numbers admitted by themselves.

On tanks lost?  Ukraine says 3,000-plus.

On personnel lost (either dead or severely wounded)?  They suggest the Russians went over the 100,000 point today.

On helicopters lost? 267.

On fighters lost?  283.

On trucks, jeeps and fuel tankers?  4,615.

Cruise missiles used? Just over 600.

So what matters here?  I would suggest three things:

1.  On specialized fuel tanker trucks....it would appear in the first hundred days of the war, these were mostly wiped out.  So when you see forward tanks in operation....they are probably refueled by a standard gas station fuel truck....driven to the front.

2.  With the fighters and helicopters lost....Russia doesn't really have the production capability to 'whip' these out of some factory.  Even with the right design, and plugged-in funds....you could be talking about ten to fifteen years before the current losses are back up to 'normal'.  Note as well....in the 'old' days....it was the Ukraine who built aircraft and helicopters.

3.  Finally, on the losses of Armored Personnel Carriers (APCs).....there's a suggestion that almost 6,000 have been lost or damaged (around the Ukraine, it's hard to dispute this number).  You are looking at a 15-year production cycle on replacing these.

Without the oil and natural gas profits....it's hard to see how any of this can be resolved.  

Two Interesting Stories Today

 1.  The German Defense Minister has said that everything is on the table about the PUMA military vehicle....with all it's maintenance issues....including killing the contract for production (they've barely started production).

That probably put a shock in for the company, and makes the mess even bigger.  Will be questionable if you just quit the contract because it's a crappy production model.

2.  Former (fired) mayor of Frankfurt....Feldman...(SPD Party)....was convicted today.  When you add up the fines....around 37,000 Euro he'll have to pay.

What this all led to on charges?  He arranged (as mayor) for his then GF....later wife...to have a city job at the city managed child-care organization.  Part of the gimmick....the GF/wife was Turkish and this was a child-care center intended for Turks....so he figured this nationality thing was enough for the job.  

On my corruption meter....it's a remarkable low level.  It does not appear that he made any money off the job situation....only his GF/wife did.  

Five Versus Four

 There are two election cycles in Germany.

If you view the district, state and and EU elections....they occur on a 5-year pace.  If you view the federal election, it runs on a 4-year pace.

This week, some discussions in the Bundestag were held.  They'd really like to motivate folks to buy into a five-year pace for the federal election.

Public perception?  The bulk of Germans (I think)....really don't care.  You could introduce some odd deal where it's 4.6-years, and no one would get hyped-up or peeved.  

An advantage?  The only plus-up I would suggest....you lessen public tensions by adding one extra year into the mix.  

Keeping and running a coalition for five years?  That's a problem where you continually see a problem pop up and suddenly.....a coalition is hell-bent on dissolving, which would possibly trigger a new election.  

If you asked Germans to rank this extra year deal as important?  Well...I doubt that they'd put it in the top 1,000 problems to be fixed.  

Court Verdiict

 Back around 13 months ago (November 2021), there was a terror situation onboard a ICE train in Bavaria.  

To best sum up the details....a 28-year old Syrian guy attacked four passengers on a ICE (high speed rail) train with a knife.  Three were wounded pretty seriously.  

At the time, the cops simply said it was either mental problems or a radical Muslim situation.

Court wrapped up today....took around two months to complete the case.

Verdict?  While they had seven mental experts examine the guy, and the defense really hyped up paranoid schizophrenia issues....the court decided 'no' and said he was guilty of dangerous bodily harm.  He'll serve 14 years in a regular prison....not a mental clinic situation. 

Chief issue for the guy?  The police had findings that he was radicalized in 2018.  From that point on, he was attempting to recruit friends over to the 'cause', stopped drinking, and stepped away from 'society'.

Oddly enough, about eight months prior to the attack....he got all hyped-up to leave Germany and return to Syria.  Reading over the various sources....nothing ever came of that idea (you kinda wonder why this 'exit' fell apart).  

My humble view?  It doesn't take that much to brain-wash a guy, and get into a confused state of mind.  Maybe with the 14-year period, he'll realize the path he took.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  Public TV commentator steps into 'crap'.

Well....the way this story goes....ARD (Channel One) of the public TV situation, allows for commentary.  I should note....it can only be a journalist under their employment.  It can't be a regular butcher, or a German professor, or just a regular citizen.  

So, Ukraine President Selenskyj shows up in Washington DC, and does the speech in the House chamber.  

ARD has a Washington correspondent....Gudrun Engel....who came to gave a commentary over Selenskyj's appearance.  In simple terms, she said the whole trip was "act of desperation" and only symbolism that "brings the world no meter closer to the end of the war".  

Within minutes....all hell broke loose on German Twitter as the commentary is pushed out and openly discussed.  Lets just say a fair number of Germans took this as a negative hype and 'dumped' upon ARD's news team.

The perception landscape existing in Germany presently?  180-degrees.  Probably 10-percent of society is pro-Russia and have daily references to Putin's propaganda efforts.  Another 10-percent perceive Ukraine as being absolutely corrupt in nature (at the same level as Russia), so this group has hit the 'mute-button' on the whole war story.  

The SPD Party enthusiasts?  They had for sixty years a seemingly 'happy' relationship built on Soviet/Russian relations/commerce....so they are in pretty much shock how things have gone, and are fairly scared of the war coming to the front-door step of Germany presently.  

Anti-refugee behavior like you saw in 2015/2016?  With a million-plus Ukrainians in Germany.....it's just awful rare that you hear negative or critical commentary over the present-day refugee situation.

Should someone had read the commentary of this ARD journalist ahead of time?  Just a humble guess....there's probably at least one manager who knew what the two-minute statement would be and no one disagreed with the words spoken.  

2.  Bakhmut battle scene in the Ukraine?  Pretty intense battle going on.  If you follow the German reports....Russians are holding out, but have taken enormous causalities.  

3.  N-TV ran a piece this AM talking about the German shortage of drugs.  So, the hype of the shortage goes to the fact that China produces the bulk of drugs used in the world (if you didn't know that).  In recent months, the Covid problem has gone 'turbo' and the Chinese now have the attitude that the drugs manufactured.....are needed there in China.  Rather than make more.....they simply took over distribution and aimed it primarily at their own people.  

How bad is the situation in Germany?  It's bad enough that the Health Minister is putting a plan up....to force German companies to manufacture critical drugs here....no matter what the cost level leads to.  So, you might wake up in late 2023 to find a drug which was 14 Euro per bottle before.....now runs at 18-to-20 Euro now. 

4.  WELT wrote up an interesting piece this AM....basically asking the question, after years of hyping public transportation and use of bikes....'why Germany remains a nation of motorists.'

If you can find the paper, it's an interesting talk. 

I will say, from my prospective....if you try to relate German society to what existed in the 1970s/1980s, there's simply a lot of people who don't want to live in urbanized areas like Hamburg or Frankfurt.  So once they get to a key salary structure....they pack up....leave, and buy a home 20 to 40 km from their job 'center'.

This current distaste of urbanization has countered the massive effort to lessen car use in the country.  

5.  I noticed out of Berlin, via RBB....a speeding incident.

City cops report a speeding camera catching a guy in a 30 kph zone in Berlin-Spandau....doing 113 kph.  

Aspects of the situation?  The guy maxed out on the fine.....at 800 Euro...got 2 points on the license review, and will sit out on driving for three months.  But then they brought up what their interest is....that they think he was in a car race.....so they are looking around for other bits of evidence.  So far, they haven't found a second car in this 'race'.  

If they find evidence (witnesses or cameras)?  Well....he's going to face a more stiff situation....his license could be revoked for a minimum of six months....and going up to five years.  They could also refer the guy when he attempts to recover his license....to a mental fitness test (the so-called dummy test), and his problems multiply rapidly.  

The Patriot Missile Battery and Ukraine

 Russia said today....bluntly...that if a Patriot system goes to Kiev...it'll be destroyed on day one.

Odds of this?  Well....I would imagine that the Russians are now dedicating a lot of satellite coverage and looking at every avenue from the western side of the Ukraine....with roads leading to Kiev.  

From the corner of Poland, over to Kiev, by convoy speed.....you have to figure a 12 to 15 hour ride.  Getting set up?  Anyone's guess but I would imagine it'd be operational in an hour.  

The true question here....if the Russians were serious....they'd be firing cruise missiles in a massive wave.  In some odd way, I think the strategy here....is to get the remaining Russian cruise missiles into a crappy 'end'.  You could waste forty of them, and the Patriots would wipe out the arsenal....day by day.  

A unlimited number?  No.  The Brits suggest there are around 500 to 600 left to the Russians.  

It's more or less a baited situation...with no real production capability left to the Russians in the near-term.  

The question then becomes....would Putin be stupid to fire forty missiles every single day (for 10 days) in some mindset.....of claiming he took out the Patriot's?  

I admit....it's an odd way of progressing the war, but someone is figuring Putin is not really into long-term thinking.  

The Voting Age To 16 Discussion

 Normally, for the federal election in Germany....you have to be 18.  In several states, they've shifted the state election age to 16.  

About every six months, there's this big discussion....mostly led by the SPD Party, to bring the national age to vote down to 16.  

Chief wisdom/logic?  Well....most 16 year old German 'kids' are treated as adults.  You can buy beer/wine, but not hard alcohol.  The driving age is still 18, but you can drive a lesser HP vehicle (the tiny vehicles) at age 16.  

So, then you come to the SPD logical position....you can attract the youth voters in higher urbanized areas.....to the SPD political position....in a simpler and easier fashion.  Or at least they believe this age group of 16 and 17 year old 'kids' are that way.

To be honest, once you assemble the thirty-odd platform positions of the SPD....probably two-thirds of these are of zero interest to youth voters.  

Now, if you'd asked me to assemble the wit and wisdom of my son (German) at age 16....I would have told you giving him the voting right would be a colossal and stupid mistake.

The numbers here?  You can figure in the 2-to-2.5 percent range.  How many would actually show up and vote?  There's simply no way of forecasting the nature of these youths, and if the bulk of them would show up.

The odds of a quarter of them voting hard right-wing?  I would go and suggest in the eastern side of the country.....you might find a state or two where a quarter of this new voter group.....might be attracted to the AfD, and you can't convince them otherwise.

My general attitude....if this sounds wise, why can't you lower the driving age to 16 entirely?  Why stop at 16.....why not go down to 15 years old for a voting age?  If they are that mature....why not allow them booze sales at 16?  

Will this eventually pass?  I'm of the view that within five years.....the federal age will be shifted to 16.  I'm also of the mind that the AfD Party will go out and attract a high number of these teens, and you will have to listen for weeks from the journalists and SPD members.....how the 'kids' were brain-washed.  Eventually, some idiot will come out to suggest reversing the whole trend, and making 21 the next voting age.  

The 1,500 Euro Story

 I was looking over AM news out of the state of Bavaria today....news piece on the activist protest trend and the glue episodes.  

Munich city government is now saying that a standard fee will be charged if you participate in a protest, with glue as an element, and the police react.

Cost?  1,500 Euro per person.

One single 10-minute protest, with glue in the mix.....you get detained long enough to get your ID and a summons to appear in court.  The judge will see you probably in four to eight weeks, and then hand you the fine. 

How they arrived at 1,500 Euro?  Unknown.  It is a nice round number and I suspect that they believe it's an amount to discourage you from juvenile behavior.  I'm not really convinced of that changing your behavior.

Another factor, which ought to be asked by journalists....what jobs do any of the activists hold?  In the past month, I saw an interview where two talked of their lives now.  One had quit his job to be a full-time activist, and a second had quit studies at some university.  Neither had a real income and it begged questions over who was funding their food, beverage or lifestyle.

What I suspect will happen?  As the fines are issued, and paid....some gov't intelligence guy will follow the path of the money....to find the foundation or group behind it.  I have some belief that it goes past the German border.

This 1,500 Euro fee to become common?  I would suggest that by the end of 2023....most all states in Germany will have a similar fee.  By 2024, I also expect the fee to bump up into the 2,000 to 2,500 Euro range.  This will go with the logic that if it's so easy for you to hand over 1,500 Euro....it ought to be easy to hand 2,500 Euro over as well.  

Now, if you were asking me....how many episodes occur each week in Munich to estimate the 1,500 Euro gimmick?  Following the news reports....I'd say a minimum of one per day (Mon-Fri only, they don't seem to do much on weekends), with five people per average on each incident.  So you should figure a formula of 5 x 5 x 1,500 per week....meaning 37,500 Euro a week of 'revenue-fine' generation.  

Yeah, if they kept the trend for a year, it'd be well over a million Euro.  

And if they don't pay?  Usually, the German court system will send a guy to value your 'estate' (like your Nintendo game set, your laptop, your stamp collection) and seize your stuff.  In the case of these guys/gals....I just don't think they have much of a personal 'estate' to take from.

The Million Euro Lady

 German cops in Stuttgart put out a national alert today....looking for a 42-year old German woman.

Crime?  Well....back around two months ago....she walked out of her money-transport companies vault....with 1-million Euro in cash. 

Problems in hindering her 'freedom'?  Well....they suggest a number of tattoos on her arms.  Walking around in public....in Germany....would be a problem.

My humble view?  If I had a million Euro in cash....the last place I'd linger around is Germany.  I'd take off for some small town in Bulgaria, Romania or Greece.....plus I might have the tattoos covered over or lasered-off.

Surviving off a million at age 40?  This presents the bigger of problems.  You have to isolate yourself....avoid detection....then live off a strict budget in a pretty quiet and rural location.

A million just isn't really that much of a pot of money.  Maybe you'd buy into a cafe on some Greek isle, and just chill out for the next thirty-odd years.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  Much discussed Russian hot topic.....bringing their active duty military strength up from 1-million....to Putin's declared new goal of a 1.5-million military force.

First, it's a problem because the birth-rate within the country is lousy (1.5 births per each couple)....so the nation is on a decline.  

Second, a fair number of young men have already left the country, and probably won't return.

Third, from the funding side.....the present 'claim' is that they budget around 66-billion dollars a year for the present military....which if you judge their GDP (from 2021) to be correct....it's around 4.3-percent (a heck of a lot).  It's a false story because the Oligarch and officers were siphoning off anywhere from a third of the fund....to maybe half.

Fourth, add the burden that you aren't selling oil, coal or natural gas at the same rate....to Europe.  

Finally....you are taking half-a-million young men out of the economical side of the country....so they won't be there to build bridges, pave streets, or take up normal commerce.  

2.  Just an odd factor....ever since that 9-Euro monthly ticket came around....there are traveling 'gangs' on trains and in stations....conducting a serious amount of pickpocketing.  The cops suggest crime has gone up 50 to 70 percent.  

3.  News headlines suggest around nine-million Germans are presently 'sick' with something (flu is going around, and some weird sore throat problems).  Locally, the city (Wiesbaden) has put out a 'alert'.....don't go to the local doctors/clinics unless it's really necessary....the system is currently over-taxed.  

4.  'Throttling' your incoming electrical power to be a reality?  N-24 had a piece this morning and talked about the consumption of power with E-cars being added to the grid, and heating pumps being the 'norm' in the future.  The idea is that the grid is a lot more fragile than people anticipated.  

Reaction by the car industry in Germany....really hyped-up for E-cars?  Negative....it doesn't help to sell their cars. 

5.  Some weird incident with ticket-audit people within the Frankfurt subway.  Approached some guy...apparently no ticket, so they were going to take the normal  handling routine.  Guy reacted by pulling out a knife....waving it around, and cutting the two audit guys.  They called the Polizei.  At the next stop (Gateway Gardens...out toward the Airport)....police boarded, and encountered the guy.  He was still in an aggressive attitude....they ended firing a round into his leg....putting him  on the ground. 

As I 'preach'....you just have to always be vigilant.  There's always a nutcase in the mix.  

Essen: Fake Emergency Phonecalls

 Things have settled down today (Wed) after a number of fake emergency phonecalls were called in....around the Essen area.  

Culprits behind this?  Well....police have some in a environmentalist group, who say they used the App NORA....to create a wave of emergencies (fake).

Most of these started up in the early evening (7 PM), and it appears the first was some gas leak....which the fire department reacted to.

Cops firm on who did it?  I'd say they are in the first stage of investigation, and it might be a week or two before they have locations/names.  

The serious part of this?  Section 145 of the federal criminal code....covers events like this.  Misuse of emergency numbers.

What you can get out of this?  Usually a fine, and a max of 1 year in prison (no one usually gets that unless they really had serious intent and no regret).  

Usually, if you see some nutcase calling in fake police or ambulance situations....the judge might go and ask for a mental review of the person to see if they are unbalanced.  If it doesn't go this way.....you might be able to talk your way into a 'mistake' and just get a full year with probation given.  

In this case, if the activist goes and admits they did this on purpose....it's not going to be easy to assign probation.  

'Last Generation' And The Christmas Tree Saga

 Today, two Last Generation activist got onto a 'lift' in Berlin....then cut the top 2-meter off a Christmas tree near the Brandenburg Gate.

Cops?  They were there as the two came down, and a third person (probably at the controls)....detaining/arresting the three.

I don't think the cops even wised-up until the dynamic duo unfurled a banner announcing themselves.  

Crime?  Property damage is about you can charge them with.  Section 304 of the criminal code.....damage to objects of public interest....probably would be the charge involved.  Most you'd get?  Usually a fine related to the cost of the item, and police-man-hours.  Jail-time?  Generally, under 304....you could get up to 3 years, but for Christmas tree cutting....I kinda doubt that you'd give the threesome more than a week or two in jail....with a fine.

It would shock me if they can even cite a criminal act involving Christmas trees....for the past fifty years in Germany.  

The problem here....you get front-page  coverage, and 99-percent of people see the action as juvenile or the act of a 8-year old kid.  They just aren't winning sympathy from the general public for stuff like this. 

It wouldn't shock me if the court ordered them to stay in jail until their court appearance (probably not to occur until mid-Feb).....to make a point.  

Who is advising the 'kids' on the actions to take?  It just begs questions who dreams up the agenda for them.  

(The cynical side of me would like to see a dozen non-Last Generation folks team up and just create chaos in the name of the Last Generation agenda....by dumping duck feathers on the street.....painting bridges pink....etc.)

Last Night

 I ended up early evening yesterday at a Wiesbaden grocery store (near the Bahnhof).  At the line....waiting to check out....a shoplifter event occurred.  

Non-German guy....maybe in his 50s....had a cart in the self-checkout lane and had swiped one item on the scanner, and paid.  The other five or six items in the cart...unscanned.  

Clerk hit the alert-button....shop-lifter is hauling ass out....with some 18-year old clerk kid in pursuit.  Manager and the kid catch up, and haul the guy back in.  

I'll admit....I've seen around five or six shop lifting episodes over the past five years....mostly at electronic shops.  This was the first occasion at a grocery.

What happens to the guy?  They register the amount attempted...then get a ID check accomplished.  If he cooperates....they give him a slip to say he's forbidden entry ever again.  If he doesn't cooperate with the ID....cops get a call.  

My humble bet is that he has no visa....so the ID check will be a problem.  

It's interesting....my first 56 years in life....never noting a single shop-lifting episode.  Since then....around one per year....just standing at the right place and right time.

The Becker 'Decline'

 How did Boris Becker get into all this legal trouble, and end up in a Brit jail?

Mostly....as his career declined and peaked....he had zero money-handling experience.  Then you tie in wife #1 with the divorce costs.  Later would come divorce number 2.  

The jobs after tennis?  He was a 'car ambassador' for Mercedes....mostly showing up at meetings and shaking hands.  For some period of time, he was a on-line betting 'ambassador'.

Around 2002, he fell into a tax scandal....getting sentenced for two years of jail (German jail)....but that was eventually suspended.  

For around five years, he was a poker-expert (at least he claimed that) and got some type of pay for that advice.

Then he got into Nigerian oil exports....with the claim that he made $10-million off that (whether it was true or not....an unknown).  

Around 2017, he got dragged into a court matter....owing around 36-million Euro to a group of creditors.  That led to court action and the Brit jail.

In simple terms....he's a guy who stumbles around into various money-deals, and really can't handle the money and tax implications involved.  Germans are fascinated by the guy, and if he were managed properly....with a lower expectation on living costs....he'd probably do OK.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  Berlin is moving on a proposal of 'forcing' more housing options.  If you drive around (you see the same issue in Frankfurt, Wiesbaden, Mainz)....you tend to notice an occasional old building (6 to 8 apartments) which is standing vacant.  It's a place in need of serious renovation (figure a minimum of 1-million Euro as a starting point).  

The city senate wants a law in place where they will take the property....renovate with their own 'team', and then charge the owner for the act.

Legal?  Well....their lawyers haven't found any city in Germany which has done this....in this manner.   The act does seem to revolve around a standing house which might not be worth saving, and is worth more as a property....to tear down and rebuild from scratch.  Money then?  Well...you are engaging in a big problem if the house is over 100 years old.....a lot of paperwork and gov't regulation to 'save' the house 'as-is'.

Getting a house renovation project geared with the massive paperwork required?  I would suggest the city government doesn't really understand or appreciate the effort required.  

Legal challenges?  I would make a guess that off house number one they select....this will go on for five years in court, and be found with tons of legal problems in handing the guy a bill.

All of this....because of a housing crisis in Berlin?  Yeah....that's the basic entry to the problem.

2.  I noticed off 'WattsUpWithThat'.....a fairly good article on the cost of energy for Germans (in English).  

A bit of blame going on around the country about the cost factor and how this will hurt the economy in the long run.  Worth a read.

3.  Back in 2016....Berlin authorities staged a raid on a brothel.  The accusation made....hookers there were 'slaves'.  Massive raid....none of the charges were proven in court.  The brothel sued the city of Berlin.  Yesterday.....the court said the city screwed up, and assigned them a cost of 100,000 Euro to pay the brothel owners.  

4.  Lot of hype over the Boris Becker interview (after the release from the Brit jail).  Sat1 (the commercial network) paid a hefty sum of money for the first interview.  I suspect at least a third of German society watched the interview.

5.  So, this Covid story is laying there.  The Charité Hospital in Berlin, a world-renown operation, had done a long Covid study and published it via the journal "Science".

In the past day or two....it's been taken down.  Chief reason? N-TV says there was a problem in contamination with the test samples.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  Day two of the Qatar 'warning' not to stir up a scandal over the money they gave to the Greek EU VP.  Front page news on all avenues, and stirring up a good bit of German conversation.  Qatar has a product, and if you want to buy that product....you have to avoid scandal chatter.  

2.  Via N-TV this AM.....around 300 medications which would be on the shelf in most German pharmacies.....are no longer there (meaning short-supply).  It's reaching a point of a national crisis, and leads to the problem that there's almost no medication sold in Germany today....that is actually made in Germany (or the EU for that matter)..

3.  Someone brought up that most of the salaries of the public TV networks....are above the salary of the Chancellor.  This will stir up a fair amount of debate among politicians how this situation developed over the years.

4.  Potsdam prosecutor investigating Tesla factory....for opening a plant operation, without a permit.  Complaint lodged by the state environmental folks.  Fine possible, but it'll drive home the path you have to maintain....if you want to set up a German factory.  Just makes more sense to operate in Poland, Hungary or Czech, for production reasons.  

5.  I noticed this AM that the daily Wiesbaden Corona/Covid report.....indicates that the folks publishing it....will quit the daily report on 1 Jan, and go to a weekly report instead.  Deemphasis going on?  Well....Covid is just not a page one topic anymore.....probably that way since March.  

Four Curious Things Underway

 1.  Qatar put out a 'warning' that if the EU gets all hyped-up on scandal stuff....Qatar might cut off LNG (liquid natural gas). 

As badly as the Russian stuff has gone.....it appears that Germany/EU has stepped into a 2nd mess.  

All this scandal chatter and Belgium police investigation?  I would suggest within a day or two....it just drops entirely.

2.  The chief economist at KfW has said today that the German economy will drop by 1-percent in 2023.  As bad as 2022 was for the economy.....you would basically say stagnation continues on.

3.  The purchase/manufacture of the PUMA vehicle for the German military?  Halted as of this morning.  The company needs to resolve the loss of confidence....before another one is built or delivered.

4.  Natural gas storage as of this AM for Germany?  Now at 88-percent.  

The EU Carbon 'Deal'

 I could go and spend four hours and 300 lines....to explain this, but I'll keep this simple.

The European Union put up a plan to reform the organization's carbon market.  Translated?  There would be new fees/cost pushed onto CO2 costs for road 'transport' and buildings....starting in 2027.

By 2030, the EU emissions cut would be near 62-percent gone....from the 2005 numbers cited.

It may seem that 'industry' and commerce would pay for this....but it really comes from every consumer, including those who buy European products....from outside of the EU.  Everything....has cost added.

The true consequence?  Somewhere along 2024, 2025 and 2026....you'd start to notice various European companies which realize they can't produce 'X' at a relative cost....so they start to close unprofitable plants/industry in Europe, and move them to places like India, Mexico, or Philippines. 

Around 2027, the EU starts to get warning notes from member states....unemployment has gone up two to five points.  The 2028 EU election?  It will be under a threat of both left-wing and right-wing activists....possibly creating a weird fringe majority who are focused solely on unemployment numbers and companies shutting down European production.

GDP pains?  Yes....across the board.

The inability of EU member states to contribute the same 'money-pot' to the EU?  That will start to appear, and the EU will ask why the funds are less.

Somewhere along 2028/2029....this carbon package will be dumped in a radical fashion, with the public asking stupid questions, and getting little in terms of confident chatter.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  For almost all of 2022....there's been this scandal brewing up in Hamburg over several bank folks, and the implications that various political figures were 'helping' them avoid legal trouble.

So this morning....Focus had a brief piece....that a cleaning lady has confirmed a meeting of Mayor Scholz (today Chancellor Scholz) with the Warburg bank chief.  In past statements over the investigation...Scholz has continually denied meeting the guy at his house.

This all attaches up to the Cum-Ex affair, and begs questions of Scholz once again.  If these meetings and help are identified?  Well...Scholz ends up in serious political trouble.  If you asked me of the odds of him lasting the full four years?  I'd presently give it a 60-percent chance.  

2.  World Cup ended in Qatar yesterday.  According to ratings.....via ARD/ZDF numbers....one of the lowest viewed series in decades.  I would attribute most of this to the season, and the German exit after the first round.

3.  Lot of talk on upgrading the German private ownership of guns.  Mostly a internal fight between the Greens and FDP.  

4.  Some kind of crisis meeting of the coalition gov't this morning in Berlin....over defense topics.  Bunch of negative events played out over the past month.  

I'll generally say...for almost two decades....there's been some spiral going on within the German military....with some of this involving lack of funding and some involving poor choices of equipment.  

5.  I sat and watched N-TV news this AM, and they got onto a odd subject....burn-out now being noted with people who do 100-percent non-home-office work.  We are talking about nurses, sales people and truck drivers.  

From the survey done on this....these people were only in the 60-percent level....on job satisfaction.

Three Things To Think About

 1.  I sat and watched a piece on N-TV (German commercial news) this AM.  The hype?  Russia has apparently decided that the conscripts in Ukraine....need entertainment....so singers, circus folks, and movie actors are being dispatched to bring 'cheer' to the conscripts there.

Just about every location where the Russian conscripts are located....is on the front-lines, so it's hard to see the eagerness of the visiting crowd, or how they got 'volunteered' into this.  

2.  The Germans took the 'PUMA' military vehicle into a recent NATO exercise.  It's been around for 7 years and what I'd describe as a light-armor vehicle.  Each one cost around 17-million Euro.  350 of the first series were built/delivered by the end of 2021.  There's supposed to be a second series coming....in the 200 range..

Well....in this NATO exercise, the 18 vehicles used....were down for most of the exercise.  

Lot of questions popping up over them and their operational ability.

3.  Some CSU Party folks finally put this item out there....that from all these natural gas reserves that the gov't chats about.....'some' aren't really German gov't owned, and the real amount....isn't a public information type item.  So, in simple terms....the political opposition was asking....define the actual amount of natural gas that the gov't holds.  

This might be shocking news?  Maybe....maybe not.  But it's odd that this information comes out mid-way in December.  

The bulk of the reserves might be commercially held?  It's possible, but you'd have to get get the gov't to admit some things.

Five German News Stories

 1.  Just odd....I get job advertisements....even though I'm retired (here in Germany).  Yesterday, I clicked on one....front-desk person for some German doctor (specialized).  Zero mention of needing English....they emphasized right off the bat you needed to speak, read and write in German.  They've reached a point where a fair number of applicants (I think) are non-German. 

2.  WELT wrote a piece (Sunday paper) noting that German families are now in permanent crisis mode.....3rd year in a row, and 2023 doesn't look that great either.

You see a lot of this, with people carrying around a 'bucket' of woes/burdens.

3.  If you remember the Green Vault robbery in Dresden from 3 years ago....a huge amount of diamonds were stolen from the museum.  Well....in past couple of days....most of what was stolen has been recovered.

Goes back to a crime family gang in Berlin.  Whatever their intentions were in selling the 'loot', I think it attracted a lot of attention.

4.  Electricity running over 1,000 kilometers from Azerbaijan to central Europe?  Yeah.....hyped up in the past 24 hours.  Plan would mean a cable running through Georgia, the Black Sea, and crossing Bulgaria, Hungary.  

The hype?  All clean and pure 'Green' energy.  Date?  2029 at earliest date, but I'd suspect this goes an extra two or three years.

Cheap?  No one really says that.  

5.  Chancellor and a number of VIPs showed up in Hamburg, as the first LNG ship delivered natural gas to Germany.  

Pantoffelheld: Real Meaning

 There are probably 500 words in the German language which don't translate well into English, and if you engage a German on the word.....it invites a conversation that doesn't go well.

In the literal sense....pantoffelheld means 'slippery hero'.  

In the real sense, this is a German guy who is married to a fairly blunt, direct and charismatic woman.  

In using the word?  You should only use it with the German guy involved, and never within ear-shot of his wife.  If she should hear you....expect a long heated argument and a lecture on respect for authority.

If you wake up in a pantoffelheld situation?  Well....if you intend to linger around, you'd best locate a good local pub, and figure to be there at least one night a week.

Five German News Stories

 1.  This collapsed mega aquarium in Berlin (at the hotel) has turned into a major discussion topic.  RBB (regional public TV for Berlin) actually ran a special 10 to 15 minute update piece last night on TV....informing the public of the collapse.  Looking at damage via the video....I'd say it'll be at least two or three months before they re-open.  One odd aspect, when first reported....the local police thought it was a terror or criminal attack.

2.  Covid 7-day incidence rate for Germany?  Shockingly low....at 247 per 100,000.  Across the nation for the past 24 hours.....147 newly reported Covid deaths.

3.  There will be a Bundestag review of the current ban on fracking for natural gas in Germany.  If you asked me about the enthusiasm?  From the SPD/Green side....just about zero.  From the FDP....fairly enthusiastic.  

The blunt side of this.....all this wheeling and dealing to get Qatar LNG deliveries set up....that will only make up for 10-percent of what the Russians were selling.  Unless you find some mythical source (like Algeria or Greece)....every winter for the next decade will be a if-or-miss situation.

Politically, both the SPD and Greens are tied to zero fracking.  But to bring the cost levels down....the only way to resolve this (temporarily) is fracking (easily able to make up for what the Russians can't sell).  I'll add...just saying a year or two of fracking won't suffice.  You'd have to suggest more than a dozen years to really resolve the current mess. 

4.  WELT says that Qatar apparently sent some 'team' into Germany to 'spy on critics'.  BS-factor?  Maybe a '5' out of ten.

To be honest, there's probably forty countries with someone on the payroll to spread the good word in Germany, or spy on critics in Germany.....so what's really new?  I'd even bet that Italy has a couple of folks to ensure only wonderful words are spread among the Germans.  

Any of this illegal?  As long as they aren't bugging phones....I don't see what charges you can drum up.   

5.  The federal Justice Minister has said that it's reaching a point where the climate activists (Last Generation) 'may have to pay for a lifetime' (suggesting that some of the actions are reaching a point where numerous years in prison might be happening).

At the point where airport operations were threatened.....that probably changed the perception of a number of people.  It won't shock me if in 2023....we end up with an incident where a dozen activists are arrested and charged up with enough time to spend ten years in prison.  

In The AM News Here In Germany

 1.  Pretty weird.  A hotel in Berlin had this big fishtank in the entry area.  Well....this AM, the tank collapsed.  Several million liters of water fell to the floor, with fish laying there (dead).  The Aquadom hotel is shut down....probably for several weeks. 

2.  Boris Becker is going to be paid around half-a-million Euro for an exclusive interview for Sat1 (commercial German TV)....set for next week....after his release from the UK prison this week.  Some Germans are still fascinated by the guy.  

3.  I watched a piece of N-TV news this AM....fair critical piece over Russia, their failing economy, and dismal job market.  Not much to hope for in 2023.

Five German News Stories

 1.  A bit comical....a bit serious.  The German Army decided to hold an exercise here in the state of Hessen.  So, they wanted realism....instead of using a military training area...they used a regional school road area (yeah with kids, in the middle of a class day).

This happened over in Bad Karlshafen (north Hessen).

Local police were called, and reacted.  They showed up...asked 'what-the-hell-is-going-on', and this training exercise was explained.  

What the Army says?  This was a orientation 'march' (hike), and that they had told the local mayor of the event.

The mayor says he knew about the 'march', but didn't know anything about the soldiers carrying weapons (which they were).

At the conclusion of this....the school had to offer psychological 'help' and around fifty German school kids were talked to....over seeing German soldiers in uniform....carrying rifles....and marching along the street by their school.  

Yeah....it's a one-star story but demonstrates just how crazy things are in Germany in present.

2.  First LNG (Liquid Natural Gas) ship docked and is unloading its 'cargo' yesterday.  First big step away from the Russian supply chain.

3.  Some Brit reports indicate Russians are now using 40-year old bullets in the Ukraine war.  On a trust-level....I'd refuse the ammo if offered.  

4.  Some kind of weird illness trend underway in Germany....figures now suggest one in ten are 'sick'.  Might be Covid, flu, cold, sore throats, cough, etc.  

5.  Berlin city authorities admit that roughly 500 investigations are going on, with Covid test-fraud.  How much it adds up to?  A minimum of 32-million Euro....but they also suggest it could go double and triple that amount.

Adding to the mess....legit test centers are still waiting on some of their payments, and demanding action to clear the air.

WSJ, Germany, and the Migrant Story

 First, for those who aren't into the Wall Street Journal....they aren't what I'd call a newspaper (although they publish six days a week).  They are a commerce/capitalism/industry publication.  If they talk about politics....it's only because the politics in question....connects to commerce.  

My own advice about the WSJ?  It's about as neutral as you can get on topics, and they tend to analyze the heck out of a subject....to give you a broad landscape view.  Facts....in their view....matter.  

So the WSJ went and analyzed the German immigration policy from an odd angle....from the prospective that you allowed the door to open, and these 'new' people were a critical resource for manpower, and a bold solution to your lessening manpower for German industry.

In simple terms....the WSJ article crapped all over the German policy.  I'll reference part of this situation to a Focus article from yesterday.  

If you didn't know....between now and 2035....roughly a dozen years....there's around 7-million German employees who are set to retire, and there just aren't people ready to step into their shoes.

For reference, today in 2022.....one out of every six people you see in Germany....are non-German, or immigrants.

At some point in the WSJ piece....they bring up the total number of Afghan and Syrian potential workers (800,000).  The 'system' figures that only one-third of them are in a position to produce income/taxation.  The rest are not producing anything.  Key reason?  Well.....a lot of what Germany needed for manpower....meant higher education and extra training.  Maybe the other two-thirds of this group might one day be productive....but right now....no.

Angering the political players?  I think the WSJ is judged by some to be only half-right, and misses key points.  In the commerce sector....I doubt if they dispute the piece and consider it more of a 'warning' than anything else.  

The truth is that the whole German commerce/industry sector is dependent on non-Germans in the future.  If you can't produce 'X' with your staff.....you will end up exporting the work to some country where they have the trained manpower to support a project.

So if you hear about this WSJ piece....that's the basic story.  It's blunt, a bit dismal, and takes the migration story to the next level.  

Ukrainians: The 'New' Germans?

 A poll was done with a fair number of Ukrainians....there are presently just over one-million in Germany.

The question was....do you want to stay?  

37-percent said yes, and have no intention of leaving Germany.

Adding to this....another 27-percent have not really done a lot of thinking over this, and could go either way.  

Feeling welcome in German society?  That poll number came up to around 47-percent.  Fewer than 10-percent said they felt 'unwelcome'.  

Where this is going to lead to?

I would suggest that the war will come to some conclusion by the mid-part of 2023, with the Russian economy really falling apart by that point.

I would suspect...well over 500,000 Ukrainians will be a permanent thing in Germany.  For some of the rest....the longer that the war continues....the more likely they will stay as well.  

The numbers in Poland?  Unknown....but I would suspect similar polling numbers there.  

What Does Verschlimbessern Really Mean?

 Typically, you are standing in the middle of a German work group, having done some action....then one of the Germans with you utters the phrase 'verschlimbessern', and it doesn't matter what accompanies the word (verb, pronoun, noun, or adjective)....you really screwed this up (royally).  

It's best to confess your 'sins', and confide that you really didn't know much about this project.  

For that moment....things can't get much worse, unless the power goes out.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  From this natural gas storage that Germany maintains.....the country used 1-percent of the storage this past Monday, because of the freezing temperatures.  An issue?  They suggest not.

2.  Study done on membership within churches in Germany.  Twenty-percent of people are indicating they will be leaving membership in the future.  A lot of this....goes back to the pedophile scandals.

3.  Out of Berlin, the major hospital of the city had various scheduled operations arranged, and a sick-wave has occurred....triggering massive cancellations by the doctor/nurse staff.  This comes from a combined flu and Covid wave.

4.  Berlin city officials have said that anyone that 'repeatable' disrupts traffic (like the 'Last Generation' activists)....will get a 2,000 Euro fine for each incident. 

It would appear....the first time you block traffic, you will get a stiff warning.  After that....the fine comes into play.  The one thing that will be interesting....who will be funneling the 2,000 Euro per person over to the court?  Who serves as the money-bags for the activists?

5.  City of Wiesbaden had spent a minimum of two-million Euro on a hydrogen bus transport strategy.  Yesterday, the city cancelled the entire project.

The curious quote from the director?  "We take one step back on one path to take two steps forward on another path."

What really happened here?  Well....if you want to buy a hydrogen-powered bus....it's pretty limited (one company).  And they come only in one length (12 meters or roughly 40 ft).   

When the city did the key strategy....they needed either more buses (meaning more drivers), or to get 19 meter long buses....in order to carry x-number of passengers.  The longer buses weren't part of the manufacturing trend.  

So this was about getting x-number of people on a bus, and they couldn't do it with the hydrogen strategy.  

What happens to the dozen-odd hydrogen buses they have?  Resold.  

The UK, ID Cards And Reality

 They are having a discussion in the UK...over introducing biometric ID cards and requiring them for voting purposes.

It's safe to say....some activists are against the idea of the new cards, and trying to stage some political 'fight'.

From age 15....I've had some form of ID (the first being a driver's permit).  At some point, if you counted all the forms of ID in my pocket....I had around six IDs (state license, German license, military ID, controlled zone pass, passport, passport card).  

I sat and pondered over this....how often I've had to show an ID in the past year (the Covid era, mind you).  For 2022....I didn't travel that much and there were only three trips to a bank....where they asked for an ID. If you go back to 2019, before Covid.....I probably had to show a minimum of 15 occasions some form of ID.  

Surviving in this modern era with an ID?  How?  I don't get carded for booze purchases anymore....that probably ended around age 20. 

The las time I bought a car and had to register it (showing an ID)?  More than 25 years ago.

It would be curious to take a thousand people on 1 January, and make them no-ID types....seeing how long they'd make it into 2023 without an ID.

Five Opinions

 1.  Is the 'Last Generation' activists a criminal organization?

Either you are a criminal organization or you are a non-criminal organization...one or the other. 

If they stuck themselves to city park statues or to sidewalks....I wouldn't say much.  Hindering autobahn traffic or airport operations?  That gets to a point where you should have requested a protest permission via the local police....which they have failed to do in every single case.  Laws are on the book and the group pretended that they weren't required to obey the law.  

Presently, without the scripted permission slip....they've probably crossed a line and intend to continue until local or state authorities step in....hand them a court date, and get serious about several months in jail.  

I'll add....once you quit the university path, or terminated your job for activist action....you probably have little to care about on your life expectations.  You were talked into a mindset and probably have some brain-washing going on.  

2.  Trying to get public housing built (reasonable rent costs) in this present era.....requires bank participation, and loans which lead to serious financial responsibility.  None of this equals affordability in the end.

Week after week, I see this trend hyped up in major urban centers of Germany.  Various politicians make a big deal out of how they can deliver cheap rents....but then they have to involve the banks to get the money.

The banks give them an interest rate, and number of years to pay off the loan.  Once you do the calculations....unless you go build a cheap apartment building (designed to last a max of forty years....like the ones they built in old East Germany), this is a doomed failure.

I don't want to discourage people from trusting politicians....but you get the impression that none of them have a financial or economic background for the analysis required.

3.  Is any of this Reich membership business talked about by the news media or German politicians accurate?

It's purely estimations. It's the same when talking about anti-capitalists or 'Last Generation' membership.....purely a guess.  It might be more.....it might be less.

4.  Is any of this knife-ban-zone business....in major German urban centers....amounting to much?

Well...it's simply that various characters are walking up to people on the street (mostly at night) and kindly asking them to turn over their cellphone or cash, while showing the potential victim a knife.

It's a trend thing and you notice it mostly in the bigger urban centers....not in the towns of 50,000 or less. 

The basic idea is that the cops will roam a zone area (after dark) and stop people for a ID check and frisk.  You have a knife?  It's confiscated and you get a summons to appear in court....then they just release you.  That summons?  The hint is that you would do actual real jail time (like 60 to 90 days).  Whether the court system is rigged up to deliver?  That's only a guess.

5.  AfD Party folks came out and said of the coup-participants....they were crazy, and not capable of a coup.

I thought this was amusing but mostly true.  It's hard to find any AfD politician who advocates bringing back the monarchy-style government.  In fact, if you walked around Germany....asking a thousand people on the street, I would guess fewer than five of the thousand....would support a monarchy-style government.

As for capability?  You would have had to have well over one-million 'members' to even remotely get this to a minor stage of success....which they never had. 

While journalists and politicians hype the story....it's pretty much drifted down to a page six story, and there's almost no interest  in having a public forum show over the whole soap opera.

Store Story

 I sat and watched German business news this AM, and there's an interesting piece discussed.  Since 2019....there's around 41,000 less store-fronts existing in Germany.  Reason?  Primarily Covid, and the recession.

If you go and walk around Frankfurt, Mainz or Wiesbaden....you can't help but notice business-fronts which are empty.  

Is the trend 'done'?  I doubt it.....the recession continues on, and energy costs are a ongoing issue.

This EU-Qatar Scandal Brewing

 It's a curious scandal.

The amount of money collected so far, from police raids?  Roughly 1-million US dollars.  While I admit....a million is a lot.....it's just not that much when looking at the broad landscape.

The story dropping like a rock in the news cycle?  I'd say, in German news reporting....it's now ranked in the ten to twenty group.

How many others besides  Kaili arrested?  Three.  Although the police are indicating they aren't really finished yet.  

It would appear that everyone (within the EU) is pumped-up to say they aren't influenced by Qatar. This all begs the question....just how close were they to passing legislation making Qatar happy?

Last Night

 I ended up at the Mainz Christmas Market last night.  Four observations:

1.  Most folks in Wiesbaden (across the river) will say that their Christmas Market downsized....probably by 25-percent, in terms of the food and gift booths.  Mainz?  There's zero sign of downsizing.  It was at the same level as in December 2019....before Covid came along.

2.  Masks?  I'd say fewer than five-percent of people walking around the Market were wearing Covid masks.

3.  Crowd size?  For a Tuesday early evening....it was pretty hefty.

4.  Covid-fear?  You just don't see it.  Course, I had to ride the bus/train over to Mainz....with the mask mandate in place.  On the ground, with my walk from  the Mainz train station to the Market....I probably observed forty masks on the ground...people had accidentally dropped.  

Raid on 'Last Generation' Activists?

 Well....cops up in the Neurippin area (in the east around Brandenburg).....were tasked this AM to raid various homes/apartments which connect back to the 'Last Generation' activists....taking laptops, phones, notes, etc.

This started at 5 AM.

At this point....in the Brandenburg/Berlin area....the environmental group is identified as a criminal organization.

If you gaze back at the Red Army Faction (late 1960s) and how they eventually became a terror organization....the 'Last Generation' activists are basically walking down the same path.  

I sat and reviewed a interview with two of the members this past week.  The reporter wanted to know their long term intent.  One of the activists hyped up that he'd terminated his employment (noting he had a decent paying job)....to become a full-time activist.  The second indicated that she'd quit the university path, and was now a full-time activist.  

When you look back at the original RAF organization.....brain-washing took place, and they were all convinced of the greater glory of a revolution.  You can sense.....this group (Last Generation) feels the same way, and is under some brain-washing situation.

I would take a guess by the end of next week....in at least two other states....more raids will take place.  

All of this leading back to non-German foundations?  I would take a guess that once you peel back the emails and connect the dots....some people in Last Generation group will be shocked that the trail leads out of Germany, and out of Europe.  

AM News Situation

 Usually at 5:30 AM.....ARD/ZDF (the public TV folks) run a joint show....called MOMA (Morgan Magazine).  My general description?  For an American, it's like the NBC Today Show or the Australian 'Sunrise' show.  It runs from 5:30 to 9:00....normally.

Today?  Well...it's odd.  There's a strike that started up, and the crew that would make the show....didn't cooperate.  So they ran a previous day's show.  I get the feeling that they didn't really have a plan 'B' for this situation.

A big deal?  Typically, you have five choices for German early AM news: (1) MOMA, (2) RTL's Punkt show, SAT1's 'Breakfast Show', NTV news, or N24.  If you wanted pure news...I'd advocate for NTV or N24.  If you wanted a 'feel-good' situation....you'd go to MOMA or the Breakfast Show.  

What Is The 'Last-Mile' Delivery Strategy?

 Well....the German political folks have picked up this idea that in major urban areas....you ought to cut off the big delivery trucks that bring goods to the stores in the shopping districts.  

So there would be this transit area where the big delivery truck arrives (maybe a block....maybe five or six blocks), and their cargo would move to a three-wheel bike delivery vehicle (sometimes pedaled....sometimes battery-run), and they would bring the cargo to the shop.

Positives and negatives?

First, the city leadership has to cough up a transit 'center' and five parking spots for large delivery trucks....won't cut it.  

Second, you have to make a major advertising effort to explain this to various logistical companies....that there is one route into the noted area, and one route out.

Third, someone has to fulfill the final-mile mini-vehicle delivery system....daily, without any interruption, and be cost-friendly.  Stores paying more for this service?  Yes, and it'll eventually reach a point where a small shop sees no reason to be in the mid-town area.

Fourth, saving on the climate, or for that matter....anything?  On paper, there is some belief that keeping the bigger diesel vehicles out of the mid-town areas....makes for cleaner air.  However, if you follow the evolution going on....most deliveries will be made by battery-powered vehicles within a dozen years.  By 2040....just about all delivery vehicles will be battery-powered....so this last-mile strategy probably has minimal value.  

I'm not saying its a failure, but by the time you find a large open area to fit the delivery truck scheme.....near the downtown area....then figure the cost and hassle burden....it's just not worth the 'pain' involved.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  Just odd....this EU corruption business swirling around the Greek gal (Kaili)...took a twist.  She's talking to the cops, and laying blame squarely on her boyfriend.  

Any truth to this?  Unknown.  

It is curious how this became page one news in Greece, and the newspapers are making massive headlines out of this....with political fallout coming for some party down the road.

2.  Far NW of Frankfurt....shooting from Monday evening....56-year old guy found dead on the street.  Massive police presence.  Nothing much on who shot him and under what circumstances.

Oddly enough.....second shooting in the past week, and the first was about a 20-min walk from this location.

3.  Number of weapons seized in this 'Reich-coup' business from last week?  96.  

The attempted coup moved from a top three news item.....but still within the top dozen stories of the day.

4.  From the Pfalz state, if you block traffic for a unauthorized protest (referring to the 'Last Generation' recent actions)....it'll be classified as a criminal act, and jail-time will be the end-result.  

5.  If you haven't paid attention to the Euro to the dollar rate....over the past month....the Euro has gained strength.  A dollar buys you around .92 Euro cents now.  Bold retreat from where it was in July.

The Point Where Russia Loses The War

 Most folks don't know this....but there are primarily only thirteen oil refineries in Russia today.  

With the drone demonstration from the past week....it's only a matter of time when they've (the Ukrainians) have perfected the drone and it's capabilities.  At that point, I expect the launch of several drones, with the targets being some of these oil refineries.

A hit on one.....it starts to create a problem because you can' fix or rebuild....without a lot of technology that the west provided/sold Russia in the past.

A hot on five....some guy has to appear in front of Putin and admit that the idea of selling oil beyond the border of Russia is affected, and that getting gas to regular Russians.....is now a problem.

Setting targets on the pump-stations of the natural gas pipelines?  Probably on down the list.

Face it.....Russia has a fairly fragile structure, and it's not like the 1950s where you could go to Soviet factory 'X' to get pieces and parts to run a refinery or pump-station.  

At this point, the Kremlin elite will start to look at the long term effect of the war, and ask questions.  

If you could launch twenty drones and take out all of the refineries in one single day?  Well....the whole war becomes a joke.