Sunday, January 20, 2013

The German Non-Solution to Cyprus

There have been several business stories out of Germany this week that connected onto the Cyprus bail-out problem.  Germany has been at the front of the line throughout Europe....walking in and putting cash on the table....to bail out a number of nations (Greece and Ireland for example).  So most folks from Cyprus thought that they'd be offered the same deal when they were admitting financial failure.  Well...no....the Germans aren't tempted to budge on helping the island of Cyprus.

So this brings up this interesting topic of how Cyprus functions in the European business world, and why the Germans aren't tempted to help them.

Over the years....Cyprus has been this odd player in Europe.  For decades, Greeks and Turks on the island tended to get along.  The British were actually a major part of the atmosphere, after World War II.

In 1974, after almost a decade of violence activities between the local Turks and Greeks....a little war started up on the island, and a DMZ was established.  The Turks took control of roughly forty percent of the island, and the local Cypriot group took control of the rest.

The Cypriot group had various influences on its operation, and since the Soviet empire kinda came to a closure....Cyprus has become a place where Russian business men often meet...discuss deals....swap money (perhaps laundering money as well), and there are various parts of the government that likely function only with corrupted leadership.

The Germans aren't idiots at this comical state of affairs in Cyprus.  They know how money is flown in, distributed and shifted around.  So to say that the government is under threat of failure....well, if the Russians cared enough...they'd pump up the economy themselves.

It's an odd deal when you examine how much money resides in Cyprus banks (figure roughly eight times the amount that the island itself generates).  This simply begs more questions....which can't be truthfully answered.

My humble guess is that some wealthy Russians will eventually realize that Cyprus will likely fail without some type of help.  So a deal will be worked out.  Somewhere in this mix....Russian mafia guys will be introduced, and expectations of pay-back will be inferred.  The Cypriot government guys might be stupid enough to accept the Russian money, but they will be shocked how their generally corrupted past will crumble when the mafia guys ask for their money payments.

Maybe in the long-run....this does clean up Cypriot politics and makes the government more accountable.  Maybe.  If not....it will make for a fairly interesting movie in ten years....how a bunch of mafia guys screwed up and had to take out half of the Cypriot leadership to fix their problems.  And the Germans?  They will be mostly amazed how this worked itself out...bullet by bullet.

Explaining the German Church Tax

After a year or two in Germany....as an American...you come to realize there's this church tax, and it's not really discussed much in German circles.  So it's typically an accidental discovery, and you start to ask stupid questions.

Do all Germans pay it?  No.  It's an optional thing.  But here's the kicker....if you opt out....you don't ever get a church wedding (which might be important in life), and you don't get a church funeral (which might be important as well).  So Germans tend to think about quitting this tax on a continual basis.  It's a major decision when they finally make it.

How much does the German church community make off this?  On average...it's in the eight-to-ten billion Euro range ($12 billion dollars roughly).

Most churches will admit that they probably make most of their income via this, and the rest via the Sunday plate or old folks passing away and leaving them some cash.

Where does this start from?  Germans don't tend to know the actual starting point, but you can go back through history and find this starting around 1919 with the Weimar government left in place after World War I.

The ballpark figure of what you pay?  It generally runs around two percent of your income.  The German tax guys usually tax you at the twenty percent rate....so if you clear thirty thousand Euro a year, then your tax would be six thousand Euro of tax, and then some fancy calculations fall into place where eight percent of that tax would be church income (480 Euro).  So the church would get roughly 40 Euro a month ($50) and they'd cover all their bills and expenses with that income.

How many quit the church tax?  Numbers aren't readily advertised.  I suspect that the government and the church would prefer that the public not know that it's on the increase.

What you typically find is that a growing number of people stay on the church tax scheme through marriage, and to the point where the kids get their church confirmation deal done, and then the parents quit the church tax and enjoy keeping the cash to themselves.

This would also help to explain the growing business of private funerals and local halls in each community where a service is held with friends and family....outside of the church deal.  When you do get invited to a German neighbor's funeral, and it's at a graveyard facility or a town-hall....you can figure the guy never paid his church tax.  If it's at the church....the odds are that he paid through all those years into the church system.

The average German...will typically say it's a waste of money after a certain point.  They hate the tax and most would prefer to do something else with their money.  The churches?  If you had to pick a dinosaur that is slowly passing away in life....the German church system is probably one of the top things on the extinction list.

Finally, you might be curious to think and wonder if other European countries do the same thing.  Yes, most of them run the same deal.  Most face the same extinction issue.

My general advice is to avoid getting into this discussion or asking loaded questions over the German church tax.  It's something that Germans like or appreciate.  And if they are paying it....they will generally grumble about how the money is being used.

The DAX

I will occasionally touch on German finance news amongst the various German topics that blog on.  Today, I'll give you an small introduction to the DAX....the German version of the Dow Jones index on Wall Street.

The DAX is made up of the thirty largest companies that trade on the open market in Germany.  Some examples are: RWE, Siemens, Deutsche Post, Deutsche Telekom, Bayer, and BASF.  The daily DAX price is an index of where those thirty companies are going.

Do companies fall off the DAX (like the Dow Jones)?  Yes, occasionally, the finance guys sit down and decide that some company is just not up to their old standards, and they get replaced.

Where is German Wall Street?  In the heart of Frankfurt.  It is regarded as the tenth largest stock exchange in the world.

How do most Germans view the DAX?  This is a bit more difficult to figure out.  From my own humble opinion, the majority of Germans don't have much of a knowledge over the DAX or buying stocks.  In a village of 1,000 residents....there might be thirty people who either play the stock market themselves or have a broker or investment handler who does it for them.

What you tend to find is that Germans have two obstacles in getting themselves to an investment point.  Most consider anything in the investment arena....to be a risk that they really don't want to take.  It's better....in their mind....to take their cash to the bank and simply accept a two-percent CD option, than invest it into Mercedes or Audi or BASF.

The second problem is simply the amount of knowledge that you need to make stock purchases happen.   There's not that many avenues for a typical German to sit down and get a certain amount of knowledge, play with stocks in various scenarios, and then exercise their knowledge in the real world.  Without these outlets, no one ventures out of the safe area they've built.

As for odd terms that you might occasionally hear from the German news?  XETRA is the system that makes the trades on the Frankfurt floor.  You execute via XETRA, and stocks move from person to person.

The MDAX?  Well....it's fifty large German companies that have nothing much to do with technology....like banks, books and clothing.  The finance news folks will talk about how the MDAX is doing each day at the conclusion of the business cycle.

The SDAX?  It's a list of fifty medium and small companies.  Air Berlin, Hornbach (the hardware store), and SIXT (the car rental folks) are on this listing.

The TecDAX is a listing of thirty German companies that deal with technology only.  Software AG and SolarWorld make up this listing.

The OkoDAX?  It's one that you don't see much on the finance news and rarely discussed.  It's the renewable energy group of roughly ten players.  It is probably the least known of the DAX operations, and some might argue that it's among the least traded as well.

The HDAX?  It's all of the members from the various DAX groups...combined.

The CDAX?  Every single stock sold on the German DAX market falls into this bucket.

How many companies are listed on the DAX?  Between 1300 and 1400 German companies.  The majority....are likely companies that you've never heard of....even if you were a German.

Where do you get your typical German news?  The obvious point is Channel One's nightly news...between 0812 and 0815, there will be a sixty-second clip on winners, losers, and notes for the day. After that, you have the N-TV coverage from another commercially run network.

From the printed media....most papers will have some minor business news listed....but if you wanted fresh and broad news....then there's the Handelsblatt (printed daily).  They run around 140k copies a day and if you were into trading stock in Germany....you'd typically read this daily.

As an American, you tend to find large segments of American society who have an interest in stock trading but simply lack the knowledge.  Some will sit down and spend a year reading various publications and quietly pull out $5k to play the field and learn from mistakes.  Germans are not the type to take those kind of risks.  They want something better than a fifty-fifty shot on their hard earned money.  If I had to pick one of the top ten differences between the two cultures....this risk thing does makes it into the top ten.

The curious thing?  A couple of years ago....my son was in the last year of German school, and the math teacher had an extra class that he threw into the mix....playing the stock market.  This was a small school and mostly for average kids.  The county education folks threw up this stock challenge.  As a group, you went out and picked your stocks, and at the close of the school year....they'd add up the profits.  Typically, the gymnasium kids (the smarter schools) should have prevailed.

In this case....my son's school group actually did the best of the entire region.  You could probably sit down with my son and the other members of his group today....mention stocks....and each kid could explain how you buy and sell stocks.  Would they do it with their precious income of today?  No.  They just don't like that risk thing.

So if you are in the company of Germans, and stocks come up as a topic....don't be shocked that they are shocked over your playing the market.  They might ask questions and wonder how you actually do it.  

Friday, January 18, 2013

The 300,000

There's an odd statistic that appeared in German news this week.  The authorities are still busy with their central government database which lists all gun owners.  Call it final touches or whatever....but they finally have a computerized database which matches up serials of guns and the owners.

So the statistic is this.....there are around 300,000 gun owners who noted themselves as "hunters", while the bulk of gun-ownership fell to "sports-enthusiasts" who were around 1.1 million total.

Why the difference?

To be a hunter in Germany....it's almost like getting an associate's degree.  By the time you do all the classes and take the practice test, and get to an end-point, you really have to know alot about hunting and animals.

You don't just pop up on a Monday.....say you'd like to go out and buy a gun, get a license by Friday, and hunt this weekend.  That just won't happen in Germany.

So you go and register with a local hunting club in your town or village.  You start taking these nightly or weekend classes, and you advance to a point where you take a pretty hefty test.  You take an entire day of first aide training along the way.  You learn various guns, and clean them as part of the class.

At the end of this effort....you pass the exam and hand the certificate over to the local cops who register you in the system.  Now, you can buy your weapon, and be recognized far and wide in the region as a hunter.

Your mental status?  Oh, that was noted early on in the process as your local doctor signed a note attesting you are physically and mentally up to standards.  Nuts don't get approval or hunt in Germany.

From a country of eighty million people....there are only 300k people (mostly men, but there's some women sprinkled into the group) who officially hunt.  It would have been interesting to ask a age count or more in-depth numbers off the database.  I'm guessing that someone will eventually do that.

So when you venture out into the German countryside, and note two guys walking off into the woods with shotguns....you can note that they are two of the 300k.  And if you stopped to ask forty questions on hunting....you might be surprised at the amount of knowledge that both have.  They aren't pretenders....they are the real thing.

Tuesday, January 15, 2013

German Bus Tours

Germans are legendary at creating a bus tour for just about any destination, and in some cases...inventing a destination out of thin air that most folks haven't heard about.

Naturally, these bus tours all run for 199 Euro, 299 Euro, or 399 Euro. Don't ask why, but typically....it's done like this.

What should you expect?  Well....you do get picked up in your community...but it's typically by a 8-passenger van that picks you up and runs you forty kilometers over to a major community, where the bus is sitting.  These buses are typically filled to the max....they never run with half a bus-load.

As you get going.....you don't usually stop except for fuel.  So the bathroom on the bus is a frequently used place.  You then discover that folks can actually make a bus toilet smaller than a airplane toilet....shockingly enough.  And once you unload a big one in that bus toilet, there's no real ventilation   So for hours and hours....ladies come out of the bus toilet complaining about the terrible smell left by men.

So you finally get to the destination and Henz the bus driver just opens the door and tells you to file into the hotel to get keys.  The hotel?  Well...half the time....it might be a small decent place worth the money. The other half?  A two-star hotel that you'd rather not stay in.

The rest of the tour?  Mostly....the bus driver drives up to some point, and dumps everyone off for two hours....telling you to come back exactly at that time.  If you come five minutes late....he's gone, and you are screwed.

After an entire weekend, it's always debatable if the trip was worth 199 Euro or 299 Euro.

The best bus trip I ever had via the German system....we stayed at some Swiss mountain village....in a fairly decent family hotel, and had a 3-star meal.

The worst bus trip I ever had via the German system....I was carried off to East Berlin (where the Soviets used to hang out), staying on the 10th floor of a hotel that the elevator only went to the 8th floor, and there was this massive crack down the side of my wall. Outside the hotel were a bunch of Ho Chi Men village guys from Vietnam....selling tax-free smokes and booze.  Nothing on the trip ever worked according to plan.

So I advise you do always do some research and find people who have done the trip before....asking questions.  Don't have high expectations.  And don't think you are getting a four-star deal out of a two-star package.

Just some humble advice from an American who has done the bus deals.

Sunday, January 6, 2013

My Favorite Ten Odd Things on Germany

Remember....I only write from an American prospective on Germany, and it's not for the benefit of Germans or German society that I make my observations.

1.  Sunday and trucks.  It's an odd feeling to drive around Germany on a typical Sunday, and there's rarely not a single truck to be seen.  German law dictates on Saturday evening....that truckers come to a halt, until late Sunday evening.  So the only trucks you see anywhere.....are usually milk trucks or a special waiver truck.  Occasionally....some idiot from another country will drive into Germany and suddenly find the cops on his case....with a fine....for Sunday truck driving.

If you ever drive around in July or August.....on a Saturday....you would swear that it's just one chaotic traffic problem.  But the next day....suddenly traffic clears up for the most part, and you start to wonder where the trucks went and hid out.

2.  Upon arrival in Germany and sipping a German beer.....you come to realize that there is a hundred German beers which have a unique taste.  I admit some aren't that great (Bitburger, for example).  An American starts to compare and find that beer can actually be made better (and stronger).  Then you start find Dutch and Danish beers that join the pack.

3.  The lack of food poisoning.  In the twenty-odd years associated with German living....I've only known two or three cases of food poisoning....all with the same German restaurant (I won't mention their name, but it's a Mexican place near Ramstein).  Otherwise, you just never find a place where you might get sick off their food.     You have to remember....Americans eat out alot, and in Germany....I've probably stopped at well over 300 restaurants in my life, and other than some fairly greasy food here and there....most places were pretty decent places that I'd go back too again.

4.  The traffic circles do work.  I admit....it might have taken a hundred approaches for me to finally get the hang of the traffic circle....but after a while, they are a fine idea.  I admit, it might take decades to introduce these in some US states and get acceptance.  But generally, they fit right into an American's dream of the "Caifornia-stop".

5.  This dog thing in restaurants.  It does still bother me when I stop into a place of fine food, and there's some German individual with their dog there next to the table.  I probably haven't gotten to a point of accepting that practice yet, and might never overcome my reluctance on standard German practice.

6.  The standard German breakfast.  Yeah, the common hearty breakfast that I became used to....as an American....kinda came to an end.  So you get used to this idea of a brotchen or two....jelly or honey....a small cup of weak orange juice, maybe a piece of cheese and a slice of ham (tiny and thin), and a cup of coffee as your morning breakfast.  And yes, you later have another coffee and a sweet role or such in mid-morning.  It's a long and hard step down for an American to get used to such a start each day.

7.  Cellphone reception.  Yes, it is crisp and clear....unlike most American metropolitan areas. Perhaps there are more antennas and a better network system in place.  After a while, you just accept it.  Then you return to the US and feel like you are talking on walkie-talkies.

8.  Soccer fans go to the same extreme as NFL fans.  It's best not to disturb a German guy on a Saturday or Sunday evening during a critical game.  He's sitting quietly in his living....absorbed with key fielding and kicking, and really doesn't want any distractions from someone who doesn't understand the significant matter of soccer.

9.  The VAT business.  After a while, you begin to understand that every price you see....is with tax already added.  Everything, from soup to laptops....are priced with VAT.  I admit, it's a fairly smart idea, but then you start thinking about this 19-percent tax and getting a bit disgusted over the amount of taxation involved with each purchase.  And you still pay a full income tax on top of that.

10.  Car accidents on the autobahn are pretty drastic.  In a typical year, you will come across around forty accidents (my own humble average during a year).  On regular streets and roads....most are survivable and you see people just complaining over their cellphone to the cops or insurance folks about this "mess".  The accidents on the autobahn?  They always end up pretty severe and folks get taken off to the hospital or morgue.  After a while, you begin to notice that folks in Volvos, Mercedes, and Audi's all tend to be just lightly injured....due to all of the safety mechanisms.  Then you notice that smaller cars....like the Smart....usually are totally crushed up and not much left to indicate that it was a Smart to start with.  Then after a couple of years of observing the accidents....for some reason....you start to drive at a lesser speed (my own experience) for the most part.  Maybe it helps...maybe not....but you'd like some statistical advantage when in a car accident.    

Friday, January 4, 2013

Taking a US Car Through TUV

This is simply advice from an American....to other Americans....when it comes to staying in Germany and trying to take the US car into the German registration business.

First, do everything possible to avoid it.  By the end....you would prefer a root canal job, over maneuvering your US car into a German registration deal.  Buy the Euro spec's car and be happy with no hassle from the TUV guys.

Second, if you decide to go through with this....find yourself a top-notch local mechanic who has done this before.  He knows the checklist and knows generally how to ask for waivers.  Utilize any and all waivers possible when it comes to changing things on the car....from the headlights, to the safety equipment.  The TUV folks do allow waivers, but you need to ask and be diligent on asking for just about everything.   

Third, accept the fact that this might run into the 2k to 3k Euro range, and really not be worth the cost in the end.  If you think your car is only worth $7k now....don't waste your money.  If your US car is worth $18k....and mostly new.....it probably is worth the effort.

Fourth, the sad truth is that each region's TUV office is different and takes to the rules and standards differently.  You could pass one vehicle through a Bavarian area for less than 1k Euro in cost.  The K-town area?  It might be 2.5k Euro in total cost for the same vehicle.

Fifth, once you get it through the system and tagged....don't expect a fair resale value.  If you changed the vehicle drastically....it's just not worth the same amount of money.  So you'd best think of this as a car that you'd like to keep five more years as a minimum.

Sixth, pick-ups have a odd value in re-sale after you put the German tag on.  You might actually find some local German who a year or two later....wants a Ford F-150 pick-up for the actual real value.  So take that for simple advice.

Seventh and final....TUV is final.  If they say a drastic change is absolutely required and a waiver won't be given.....that's the end of the discussion.  The rules run into the hundreds of pages and various rules could be read in different ways.  Don't take it personal if they really slammed your vehicle and put an entire day of mechanical work onto your tasks.

US vehicles sold as new?  Yes, Dodge and a couple of other car companies have made an effort to sell a couple of US-made cars on the German market.....already with full-given TUV.  If you were into this US-car thing and had a year or two before messing with German registration.....maybe this is the better method of getting your vehicle.  My own advice is to buy a German or French-made vehicle and just be happy with no extra paperwork.

Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Taxi Use in Germany

This is an odd topic to pick up as an American in Germany.  I've ridden in taxis from around a dozen countries.  Some were fairly unsafe (Turkey and Panama, for example.....with holes in the floor of the car noted).  When you come around to German taxis.....you become a bit shocked.

First, you will never find a unclean or untidy German taxi.  It simply doesn't exist

Second, you just want find any German taxi driver who uses a GPS.  You mention any oddball street?  The guy might call the desk to ask for a reference point, but he generally doesn't have a problem in finding the address.

Third, fair and honest are a trademark of German taxi operators.  I don't know of a single case ever.....where someone had a dishonest situation with a German driver.

Fourth, as you come to figure out after a while.....almost half of taxis you come across in Germany....are Mercedes.  My suspicion.....humble thinking of course.....is that they are less of a maintenance problem than the other brands.

Fifth, day or night.....you can show up at any airport in Germany, and there's a taxi sitting there.  The same is true for all major train stations.

Sixth, English-speaking?  Well....in my experience....around twenty-five percent of the drivers speak some English and you can get your address across easily.

Seventh, and final.....if you were stupid enough to have a few drinks and not in a condition to drive.....that cellphone and local taxi number is a life-saver.  Course, don't be stupid enough to throw up in the backseat of the taxi......the drivers get a bit testy over an event like that.

I should add.....after ten kilometers.....this taxi usage gets to be a bit expensive.  And if you were going to use them for a fifty kilometer ride.....you'd best make sure you've got plenty of cash on you.