Major speech given by the Economics Minister (Pete Altmaier) yesterday. ARD covered this.
Decline of the GDP by 6.3-percent? Yes.
The decline path? By June, it will have hit the worst point (their estimate). Some recovery talked about in 2nd half of 2020, but it might be early 2022 before you get back to the state of affairs that Germans enjoyed at the end of 2019. A fairly long period of time before good times roll in.
At the end of 2019, it was around 3.2-percent unemployment. Right now, the talk is that unemployment will reach somewhere around 5.8 percent (this is the number given by Altmaier). Please note that furlough folks are not really unemployed.....they are still on a contract with their company, and getting around 65-percent of their normal pay-check (soon to go to 80-percent).
The real pain here? Fests, trade-shows, foreign visitors, travel situations, etc. The government is already talking about some relief packages for the hotel and travel industry.....but nothing firm.
The fact that tax revenue is in trouble? Right now, the missing revenue pot is figured to be around 150 billion Euro for the year of 2020. People have clamped down, and one might suggest car purchases to be one of the major problems....with people pushing off the trade-in and purchase of a new car.
What'll happen for the rest of 2020? Stimulus packages similar to what you probably saw in 2008.
Here's the backside of this story though....several state elections in 2020, and they will be affected by the chaos and dismal woes. National election? The fall of 2020, and it'll be affecting folks as well. I kinda doubt at this point that the Green Party can sell folks on any agenda, and their odds of getting Habeck in as Chancellor seem to be drifting away. So it's likely to be another CDU victory, and some CDU insider replacing Merkel at that point.
The biggest disaster coming? From my standpoint, the hotel industry really looks bad for the rest of 2020. I don't see foreign guests coming, and it won't surprise me if a quarter of the operations go through some type of sell-off or bankruptcy. Even the five-star operations will suffer to some degree.
Thursday, April 30, 2020
Interior Ministry Declaration
Interesting report from ARD this morning....the Interior Ministry finally declared Hezbollah as 'banned' from Germany. With that....came search warrants to several communities (Berlin, Bremen, and NRW).
What the ministry says is that the number of followers/members in Germany is around 1,000.
A terror device within Germany? No one really says that. It would appear though that this organization does gather funding, and that floats into the international organization. Added to that....various demonstrations.
What the ministry says is that the number of followers/members in Germany is around 1,000.
A terror device within Germany? No one really says that. It would appear though that this organization does gather funding, and that floats into the international organization. Added to that....various demonstrations.
Importance of 6th of May Meeting
There's a fairly big meeting of the national leadership (the Chancellor, the ministers, and the Premier-Presidents of the sixteen states).
The next list of changes or ban 'cuts' will be determined. A lot of people are now hoping that hotels, pubs, restaurants and bars will be listed with some type of hygiene rules and allowed to open.
The decision on the Bundesliga (soccer leagues)? Same meeting. 'Ghost' games (without fans in the stadiums) will likely be approved.
The problem with several states working on different paces? This continually gets brought up, and it's obvious that Merkel would like everyone on the same page.
The current re-infection rate? Now down to .75. Most virus experts are happy when it's anything below 1.
The talk of a 650 Euro check to college kids who lost their part-time jobs during this period? Well....it's discussed as a 'loan', and you'd have to pay it back. Some folks insisting that it be just a plain 'grant' of money.
The next list of changes or ban 'cuts' will be determined. A lot of people are now hoping that hotels, pubs, restaurants and bars will be listed with some type of hygiene rules and allowed to open.
The decision on the Bundesliga (soccer leagues)? Same meeting. 'Ghost' games (without fans in the stadiums) will likely be approved.
The problem with several states working on different paces? This continually gets brought up, and it's obvious that Merkel would like everyone on the same page.
The current re-infection rate? Now down to .75. Most virus experts are happy when it's anything below 1.
The talk of a 650 Euro check to college kids who lost their part-time jobs during this period? Well....it's discussed as a 'loan', and you'd have to pay it back. Some folks insisting that it be just a plain 'grant' of money.
Wednesday, April 29, 2020
Germany and the Coronavirus: 29 April 2020
1. Dead: 6,054 Infections: 157,497 (Focus numbers). Bavaria leads with 1,708 deaths, of the sixteen German states.
2. Mass infection report of Romanians who work in Germany....at a slaughterhouse in the Baden-Wurttemberg region. Suggested number is around 200 of the 'contracted' workers. Everyone in some type of home-quarantine situation, and a fair number reporting no symptoms at this point.
3. A test phase started up with a vaccine, with a company out of Mainz as the lead. Results? You won't know until June, and that will likely lead to a second round of testing. It might be toward the last quarter of the year before this goes to mass production.
4. Fair amount of chatter going on over summer vacations, and the odds that the government won't sign up for open-travel. It's fairly dismal for the hotel-industry in Germany.
5. Agreement within the coalition government to improve the short-time work benefits, but ONLY temporarily (to end of 2020).
New deal would be you getting 80-percent (if single or married, and 87-percent (if with kids) of your 'normal paycheck'.
This is for the furlough crowd. Presently, around 700k companies in Germany have identified workers who are on furlough at this point.
6. Masks procured and for sale now? The German grocery LIDL says that you can find masks with them (box of 50 for 33 Euro). LIDL says there's zero profit in what they have procured, and there's a limited amount in their hands presently.
ALDI Sud and DM also are selling masks.....package of 10 for 6.99 Euro. In the DM case, to enter the store....you have to have a mask or buy one of theirs at the door.....one Euro per mask.
2. Mass infection report of Romanians who work in Germany....at a slaughterhouse in the Baden-Wurttemberg region. Suggested number is around 200 of the 'contracted' workers. Everyone in some type of home-quarantine situation, and a fair number reporting no symptoms at this point.
3. A test phase started up with a vaccine, with a company out of Mainz as the lead. Results? You won't know until June, and that will likely lead to a second round of testing. It might be toward the last quarter of the year before this goes to mass production.
4. Fair amount of chatter going on over summer vacations, and the odds that the government won't sign up for open-travel. It's fairly dismal for the hotel-industry in Germany.
5. Agreement within the coalition government to improve the short-time work benefits, but ONLY temporarily (to end of 2020).
New deal would be you getting 80-percent (if single or married, and 87-percent (if with kids) of your 'normal paycheck'.
This is for the furlough crowd. Presently, around 700k companies in Germany have identified workers who are on furlough at this point.
6. Masks procured and for sale now? The German grocery LIDL says that you can find masks with them (box of 50 for 33 Euro). LIDL says there's zero profit in what they have procured, and there's a limited amount in their hands presently.
ALDI Sud and DM also are selling masks.....package of 10 for 6.99 Euro. In the DM case, to enter the store....you have to have a mask or buy one of theirs at the door.....one Euro per mask.
Tuesday, April 28, 2020
Lufthansa in Trouble
Business chatter came up today.....the airline is burning one-million Euro per hour. Flights? Somewhere between five and ten percent of what they had six months ago are still going on. Some hype today that they will approach the government shortly for some 'help'.
Bankruptcies to Come?
There's a fair amount of chatter going on in Germany this morning. The public TV folks at ARD (Channel One) are talking over the topic.
The present number? 50,000.
They figure around 30-billion Euro has been 'lost' at this point, and unless something significant occurs quickly....a number of business owners will be talking to the lawyers and preparing the paperwork.
The odds of this high number occurring? There's been political chatter going on for several weeks, and the Berlin leadership is familiar with the impact.
The directions? Shops, hotels, cafes, restaurants, etc.
Being able to resolve this? They'd have to go and funnel a minimum of 30-billion Euro as simply a hand-out....not a loan. The added problem is that that only covers the past loss....not any future loss. So in some regards....they basically need to undo the bans and get people back to some normal state of 'living'.
Presently, it's hard to see where this normal state of affairs will begin, or if it's even possible at this stage.
The present number? 50,000.
They figure around 30-billion Euro has been 'lost' at this point, and unless something significant occurs quickly....a number of business owners will be talking to the lawyers and preparing the paperwork.
The odds of this high number occurring? There's been political chatter going on for several weeks, and the Berlin leadership is familiar with the impact.
The directions? Shops, hotels, cafes, restaurants, etc.
Being able to resolve this? They'd have to go and funnel a minimum of 30-billion Euro as simply a hand-out....not a loan. The added problem is that that only covers the past loss....not any future loss. So in some regards....they basically need to undo the bans and get people back to some normal state of 'living'.
Presently, it's hard to see where this normal state of affairs will begin, or if it's even possible at this stage.
Update on a Shooting
A couple of months ago (back to January) I essayed a piece over a mass shooting in the Baden-Wurttemberg area. The police came yesterday to update the shooting, and N-TV carried a good piece to explain the whole story.
The basic story revolved around this 26-year-old guy, who shot six family members.
So down in the Rot am See....there was this family occasion unfolding....a funeral for some relative. Gathered were the father, mother, half-brother, half-sister, and a aunt and uncle.
What the police say is that the son in this case....had planned on a killing for a fairly long period (more than week or month). 30 rounds were fired, with a legally procured pistol. He apparently had the license, and doctors had given him a 'clean' bill of mental health.
Chief problem with the guy? Police say an exam by a doctor indicates paranoid schizophrenia. It's a curious thing because you can't get a gun license, without a doctor signing off, and apparently this schizophrenia problem had never been noted in the records.
What happens now? The guy was captured alive, and the court system will likely go to place him in a mental facility for the rest of his life. Beyond that.....not much to say for the six dead relatives.
The basic story revolved around this 26-year-old guy, who shot six family members.
So down in the Rot am See....there was this family occasion unfolding....a funeral for some relative. Gathered were the father, mother, half-brother, half-sister, and a aunt and uncle.
What the police say is that the son in this case....had planned on a killing for a fairly long period (more than week or month). 30 rounds were fired, with a legally procured pistol. He apparently had the license, and doctors had given him a 'clean' bill of mental health.
Chief problem with the guy? Police say an exam by a doctor indicates paranoid schizophrenia. It's a curious thing because you can't get a gun license, without a doctor signing off, and apparently this schizophrenia problem had never been noted in the records.
What happens now? The guy was captured alive, and the court system will likely go to place him in a mental facility for the rest of his life. Beyond that.....not much to say for the six dead relatives.
Numbers Story
There was a statistics report that came out this week in Wiesbaden (my local town of 285,000). It had one interesting number in it.
From all the jobs that came available in the city....56-percent of the jobs were taken up by non-Germans.
The backside of the mass immigration period (2013-to-present)? Yes.
No one says much over salary, or types of jobs.....that might have told more of the story, or maybe a more negative part of the story.
Were a lot of these simply the 450-Euro mini-jobs? That part of the story isn't told either, and I would imagine a fair amount probably was.
From all the jobs that came available in the city....56-percent of the jobs were taken up by non-Germans.
The backside of the mass immigration period (2013-to-present)? Yes.
No one says much over salary, or types of jobs.....that might have told more of the story, or maybe a more negative part of the story.
Were a lot of these simply the 450-Euro mini-jobs? That part of the story isn't told either, and I would imagine a fair amount probably was.
Monday, April 27, 2020
This Coronavirus 'App'
Lot of chatter over the weekend of this smart-phone App that is being developed for the German government.
Basically, if you load it.....it'd 'track' you and leave a 'trail'.
The two versions being discussed? Centralized and decentralized.
The centralized version would send the 'coding' (locations) to a central server, with everyone you 'bump' into.
The decentralized version would send ONLY your locations to the central server.
Giving away a lot of privacy? Lots of people have examined the idea and have a big problem with this.
You'd basically be telling the government about every shopping experience, every coffee shop, every seat in a train, and every minute you spent in a pub.
Trying to find criticism via ARD (public TV)? Don't bother looking.....they haven't allowed a board to exist much over this topic.
Forcing people to use it? No....that won't happen. It's hard to say how many people might load the App, and which version they'd agree to provide the data for. I'd simply be guessing that fewer than 20-percent will sign up for this 'service'.
Basically, if you load it.....it'd 'track' you and leave a 'trail'.
The two versions being discussed? Centralized and decentralized.
The centralized version would send the 'coding' (locations) to a central server, with everyone you 'bump' into.
The decentralized version would send ONLY your locations to the central server.
Giving away a lot of privacy? Lots of people have examined the idea and have a big problem with this.
You'd basically be telling the government about every shopping experience, every coffee shop, every seat in a train, and every minute you spent in a pub.
Trying to find criticism via ARD (public TV)? Don't bother looking.....they haven't allowed a board to exist much over this topic.
Forcing people to use it? No....that won't happen. It's hard to say how many people might load the App, and which version they'd agree to provide the data for. I'd simply be guessing that fewer than 20-percent will sign up for this 'service'.
The Soccer Situation
The virus has laid out some major issues with the German soccer league (both the 1st level and 2nd level).
First, 13 clubs in major economic woes and may fail in the next month or two.....from the 30-odd clubs in both leagues.
Second, they will restart the season (probably to play six games before the end of the season).....in front of a zero-fan audience.
Third, the general rule will be a limit of 300 total people in the stadium (to include the players, the ref's, the coaches, medical people, TV folks, camera guys, etc.
My general perception.....the economic-problem clubs will not fold....but simply get taken over by a judge and have a lawyer assigned as the new 'club-manager', and some cash will flow in.....to keep them going. Whether they can find new owners over the next year....is a virtual unknown.
If games continue as 'ghost' games into the fall.....cash will lessen, and contracts will start to drop.
The odds in 2020 of any games being played with fans in the stadium? It really looks doubtful, and it might be the August 2021 period before the ghost games come to an end.
First, 13 clubs in major economic woes and may fail in the next month or two.....from the 30-odd clubs in both leagues.
Second, they will restart the season (probably to play six games before the end of the season).....in front of a zero-fan audience.
Third, the general rule will be a limit of 300 total people in the stadium (to include the players, the ref's, the coaches, medical people, TV folks, camera guys, etc.
My general perception.....the economic-problem clubs will not fold....but simply get taken over by a judge and have a lawyer assigned as the new 'club-manager', and some cash will flow in.....to keep them going. Whether they can find new owners over the next year....is a virtual unknown.
If games continue as 'ghost' games into the fall.....cash will lessen, and contracts will start to drop.
The odds in 2020 of any games being played with fans in the stadium? It really looks doubtful, and it might be the August 2021 period before the ghost games come to an end.
One of Those Statistical Things
If you go and preview Hamburg-City news.....there's been autopsies done on 132 of the Coronavirus victims of the city (out of 142 total).
What the doctors say is that ALL of the 132 folks had a secondary condition (diabetes, blood pressure, liver ailment, etc).
None of the 132 folks died from good health situations.
Just something to ponder.
What the doctors say is that ALL of the 132 folks had a secondary condition (diabetes, blood pressure, liver ailment, etc).
None of the 132 folks died from good health situations.
Just something to ponder.
Sunday, April 26, 2020
Germans and Vacations
If you asked a working-class German on topics of the Coronavirus that bother them the most.....at the near top is the subject of vacations. Germans at this point in the year, would have completed their planning phase, the agent visit, and concluded the 'purchase' of their trip or hotel. Presently, I would guess that about 90-percent have concluded that virtually no vacation will occur in 2020, and it's bothering them to some degree.
I noticed this as a major discussion item with an ARD (public TV, Channel One) this morning. It's worth a read, and gives you some of the basic background.
In a typical German mind....you work hard, and you 'earn' yourself a relaxing two to three week period each summer....to unwind. To help make this happen, with 83-million people....13,000 travel agencies/tour operators would normally fit into the picture.
There are around seven categories that you can put the typical average German into for his summer trip:
1. The Spanish isle traveler. This is the party-guy/gal who goes to Mallorca or Ibiza, and simply wants sun, cheap wine, and a party-like atmosphere. Cost is easily within reach, and the younger crowd can easily accept a 2-star hotel. Some folks will do this year after year, and admit a 10-day isle retreat loaded with alcohol....comforts their soul.
2. The exotic traveler. This is the guy or gal who goes off to Iran, Peru, or Tonga and mostly want's 'status' when they come back....letting friends, work-associates and relatives know of their achievement. This is also the crowd who occasionally comes up with Yellow Fever, weird stomach ailments which last for a year, admits being robbed by bandits in Bolivia, or gets lost in the outback of Australia for five days because of a faulty GPS unit. The trouble with this traveler is that they typically didn't learn their lesson with the first trip, and tend to repeat this a dozen times in their life.
3. The Turkish-delight traveler. This is the gal or guy who goes yearly back to Turkey, in search of this five-star hotel experience, at a reasonably cheap price, and simply want two entire weeks of sun. They usually reappear at work with a dark tan, can't remember anything of a drama from the trip, and want to show you the pictures of the magnificent buffet area for the hotel dining experience.
4. The Italy traveler. This is typically the guy or gal who drives all the way into Italy, and stays at some lakeside 'retreat', mountainous villa-hotel, or a seaside retreat. They are seven pounds heavier than when they left....talk a great deal about Italian hospitality, and admit they were lost at least once a day for the entire fourteen days. Adventuring? On a scale of one to ten....it's an absolute ten (at least in their minds).
5. The camper. This is the German who has dragged his wife or girlfriend off in an RV....seeing either Germany, or Europe itself.....who is craving the opposite of their boring work-life. In the planning process.....they procure at least 100 glass bottle of beer, and usually put 1,000 pounds of extra weight on RV beyond it's lawful means. This is usually the guy that the German cops stop....weight the vehicle, and force him to dump a good bit of weight before being allowed to proceed on.
6. The Greek isle traveler. This is the German who buys a 'package tour', and spends two weeks at some resort where every need they have....is taken care of. The kids? They are dumped with the hotel 'youth-management' and you don't see them except at breakfast or dinner. This is typically the gal or guy who gets severely sunburned, and continually chats over the lack of German TV programming at the resort. This is also the person who gets into a fit over too many Russians at the resort as well.
7. Finally, the 'ends' of the Earth traveler. This is the German who has a wish-list of places that they see on some video, and suddenly wake up.....saying two weeks in Cape Town would be a wonderful trip. Along as each year passes, they go off to Sydney, Australia, then the next year the south isle of New Zealand, and maybe end up in the Canadian Rockies the next. They don't wish for an adventure, but they don't want a dull trip either.
The necessity of the travel agents? To make all of these work in some crazy fashion.....the agents are a necessity.
I noticed this as a major discussion item with an ARD (public TV, Channel One) this morning. It's worth a read, and gives you some of the basic background.
In a typical German mind....you work hard, and you 'earn' yourself a relaxing two to three week period each summer....to unwind. To help make this happen, with 83-million people....13,000 travel agencies/tour operators would normally fit into the picture.
There are around seven categories that you can put the typical average German into for his summer trip:
1. The Spanish isle traveler. This is the party-guy/gal who goes to Mallorca or Ibiza, and simply wants sun, cheap wine, and a party-like atmosphere. Cost is easily within reach, and the younger crowd can easily accept a 2-star hotel. Some folks will do this year after year, and admit a 10-day isle retreat loaded with alcohol....comforts their soul.
2. The exotic traveler. This is the guy or gal who goes off to Iran, Peru, or Tonga and mostly want's 'status' when they come back....letting friends, work-associates and relatives know of their achievement. This is also the crowd who occasionally comes up with Yellow Fever, weird stomach ailments which last for a year, admits being robbed by bandits in Bolivia, or gets lost in the outback of Australia for five days because of a faulty GPS unit. The trouble with this traveler is that they typically didn't learn their lesson with the first trip, and tend to repeat this a dozen times in their life.
3. The Turkish-delight traveler. This is the gal or guy who goes yearly back to Turkey, in search of this five-star hotel experience, at a reasonably cheap price, and simply want two entire weeks of sun. They usually reappear at work with a dark tan, can't remember anything of a drama from the trip, and want to show you the pictures of the magnificent buffet area for the hotel dining experience.
4. The Italy traveler. This is typically the guy or gal who drives all the way into Italy, and stays at some lakeside 'retreat', mountainous villa-hotel, or a seaside retreat. They are seven pounds heavier than when they left....talk a great deal about Italian hospitality, and admit they were lost at least once a day for the entire fourteen days. Adventuring? On a scale of one to ten....it's an absolute ten (at least in their minds).
5. The camper. This is the German who has dragged his wife or girlfriend off in an RV....seeing either Germany, or Europe itself.....who is craving the opposite of their boring work-life. In the planning process.....they procure at least 100 glass bottle of beer, and usually put 1,000 pounds of extra weight on RV beyond it's lawful means. This is usually the guy that the German cops stop....weight the vehicle, and force him to dump a good bit of weight before being allowed to proceed on.
6. The Greek isle traveler. This is the German who buys a 'package tour', and spends two weeks at some resort where every need they have....is taken care of. The kids? They are dumped with the hotel 'youth-management' and you don't see them except at breakfast or dinner. This is typically the gal or guy who gets severely sunburned, and continually chats over the lack of German TV programming at the resort. This is also the person who gets into a fit over too many Russians at the resort as well.
7. Finally, the 'ends' of the Earth traveler. This is the German who has a wish-list of places that they see on some video, and suddenly wake up.....saying two weeks in Cape Town would be a wonderful trip. Along as each year passes, they go off to Sydney, Australia, then the next year the south isle of New Zealand, and maybe end up in the Canadian Rockies the next. They don't wish for an adventure, but they don't want a dull trip either.
The necessity of the travel agents? To make all of these work in some crazy fashion.....the agents are a necessity.
Germany and the Coronavirus: 26 April 2020
1. Deaths: 5,634 Infections: 154,150 (Focus numbers)
2. Monday is the start-up nationwide.....for masks to be worn in public. Schools will require them, if you attempt to enter.
3. Out of the 154,150 on the infected list....roughly 110,000 are people who've recovered.
4. Some chatter that the government wants 'rules' in place to help make work-at-home situations more likely. For some positions, it might work.....but the majority of work done in Germany is not that type that would work.
5. Green Party is suggesting a 250-Euro shopping 'voucher' be issued to every adult in Germany. No one is saying that it's got possibilities. Would pump up the economy to some degree....for a week.
6. A thousand Germans gathered in Berlin to demonstrate against the 'bans'. Growing trend.
7. China trying to get 'positive' comments from Germany on their handling of the virus? Well....yeah, the Foreign Ministry did admit to that. Most non-Germans would have a laugh because Germans usually don't go around praising anyone, but themselves.
8. What the news folks said last night (Saturday evening, both public and commercial TV networks)....is that shopping on Saturday wasn't that peppy, and a lot of shops had higher 'hopes'. First real Saturday with open-hours.
9. Cost of not wearing a mask tomorrow? Well, it differs state by state.
- Bavaria, if you are a shop-keeper....it's 5,000 Euro. If you are a private citizen, 150 Euro.
- Berlin, Bremen, NRW, Saarland, Lower Saxony, Hamburg and Brandenburg, nothing right now....a fine is being discussed.
- Hessen: 50 Euro.
- Mecklenburg: 25 Euro
- Pfalz: 10 Euro
- Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, and Schleswig-Holstein : No fine planned.
10. Corona-Luegner? It's a new phrase being thrown around.....basically translate to Corona-Denier....like Climate-Change-Denier but worse.
11. Should you wear a mask while driving? This debate has come up and I should make this observation.....some folks can easily hyper-ventilate, and get dizzy rather quickly. So I would strongly advise if you are riding a bike, it's very unwise, and if driving a car.....you might want to limit your driving....if you HAVE to wear a mask.
12. Cops in Bavaria got this phone call.....noting two barbershops illegally operating, in a basement situation. They go out, and yes.....two illegal barbershops. Summons issued, and fines likely to be assessed.
2. Monday is the start-up nationwide.....for masks to be worn in public. Schools will require them, if you attempt to enter.
3. Out of the 154,150 on the infected list....roughly 110,000 are people who've recovered.
4. Some chatter that the government wants 'rules' in place to help make work-at-home situations more likely. For some positions, it might work.....but the majority of work done in Germany is not that type that would work.
5. Green Party is suggesting a 250-Euro shopping 'voucher' be issued to every adult in Germany. No one is saying that it's got possibilities. Would pump up the economy to some degree....for a week.
6. A thousand Germans gathered in Berlin to demonstrate against the 'bans'. Growing trend.
7. China trying to get 'positive' comments from Germany on their handling of the virus? Well....yeah, the Foreign Ministry did admit to that. Most non-Germans would have a laugh because Germans usually don't go around praising anyone, but themselves.
8. What the news folks said last night (Saturday evening, both public and commercial TV networks)....is that shopping on Saturday wasn't that peppy, and a lot of shops had higher 'hopes'. First real Saturday with open-hours.
9. Cost of not wearing a mask tomorrow? Well, it differs state by state.
- Bavaria, if you are a shop-keeper....it's 5,000 Euro. If you are a private citizen, 150 Euro.
- Berlin, Bremen, NRW, Saarland, Lower Saxony, Hamburg and Brandenburg, nothing right now....a fine is being discussed.
- Hessen: 50 Euro.
- Mecklenburg: 25 Euro
- Pfalz: 10 Euro
- Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, and Schleswig-Holstein : No fine planned.
10. Corona-Luegner? It's a new phrase being thrown around.....basically translate to Corona-Denier....like Climate-Change-Denier but worse.
11. Should you wear a mask while driving? This debate has come up and I should make this observation.....some folks can easily hyper-ventilate, and get dizzy rather quickly. So I would strongly advise if you are riding a bike, it's very unwise, and if driving a car.....you might want to limit your driving....if you HAVE to wear a mask.
12. Cops in Bavaria got this phone call.....noting two barbershops illegally operating, in a basement situation. They go out, and yes.....two illegal barbershops. Summons issued, and fines likely to be assessed.
Saturday, April 25, 2020
Ag Story
N-TV brought up this topic today.
Basically, in a normal agricultural year.....300,000 non-Germans arrive in the spring, and do two to three months of work. The German system has been developed like this, and works.....normally.
This year? Because of the virus, there's a mess brewing. Control of borders is being practiced.
First, there was a limit......80,000 instead of the 300,000. You could review this idea and predict that a major problem was going to occur.
Second.....even with the 80,000 'limit'.....the Germans only had 30,000 show up. So they are missing 90-percent of the normal worker load for the crop system.
Some people are suggesting that it'll pick up in May, and maybe hit that 80,000 limit.
Making up for the problem? Some German farmers are trying to interest German students or folks out of work.....to hire up for the temp-deal. No one can say it'll make up for the losses.
Might be worth watching for the next couple of months....if products lessen in some way, and prices escalate.
Basically, in a normal agricultural year.....300,000 non-Germans arrive in the spring, and do two to three months of work. The German system has been developed like this, and works.....normally.
This year? Because of the virus, there's a mess brewing. Control of borders is being practiced.
First, there was a limit......80,000 instead of the 300,000. You could review this idea and predict that a major problem was going to occur.
Second.....even with the 80,000 'limit'.....the Germans only had 30,000 show up. So they are missing 90-percent of the normal worker load for the crop system.
Some people are suggesting that it'll pick up in May, and maybe hit that 80,000 limit.
Making up for the problem? Some German farmers are trying to interest German students or folks out of work.....to hire up for the temp-deal. No one can say it'll make up for the losses.
Might be worth watching for the next couple of months....if products lessen in some way, and prices escalate.
Friday, April 24, 2020
New Traffic Woes
As of next Tuesday in Germany, there are some new traffic situations:
1. For parking violations....the fine goes tup to 100 euros and possibly even a point is put on your record.
Parking in a fire-protected spot? New fine of 55 Euro. If parked in a public area but blocking emergency vehicles? 100 Euro.
Parking in a disabled parking spot? New fine of 55 Euro.
2. Adding devices to your car to make more excessive noise? 100 Euro.
3. Using a speed app of any type to prevent the blitz-cameras from seeing your tag? That will be a 75 Euro fine.
4. Anyone going 16 km over the speed limit (in a urban area or country environment).....gets a point now.
5. If you exceed the speed limit by 21 kph, a fine of 80 Euro occurs, and you get two points. Plus....here is the shocker.....a whole month without the license.
A general note, this 'catalog' gets updated every twelve months or so, and it's imperative that you continually review it. Someone who has been out of the country for five years....might be a bit shocked over fines and points.
1. For parking violations....the fine goes tup to 100 euros and possibly even a point is put on your record.
Parking in a fire-protected spot? New fine of 55 Euro. If parked in a public area but blocking emergency vehicles? 100 Euro.
Parking in a disabled parking spot? New fine of 55 Euro.
2. Adding devices to your car to make more excessive noise? 100 Euro.
3. Using a speed app of any type to prevent the blitz-cameras from seeing your tag? That will be a 75 Euro fine.
4. Anyone going 16 km over the speed limit (in a urban area or country environment).....gets a point now.
5. If you exceed the speed limit by 21 kph, a fine of 80 Euro occurs, and you get two points. Plus....here is the shocker.....a whole month without the license.
A general note, this 'catalog' gets updated every twelve months or so, and it's imperative that you continually review it. Someone who has been out of the country for five years....might be a bit shocked over fines and points.
Germany and the Coronavirus: 24 April 2020
1. Deaths: 5,261 Infected: 150,012 (Focus numbers). Number of the infected on the 'healed' list? RKI says 103k (more or less).
2. Rostock (in the far NE of Germany) has declared itself the first major German city to be 'recovered'. The mayor says.....the bans are basically unnecessary at this point. Accurate? It doesn't matter, people believe the guy.
3. Three German states (Baden-Wurttemberg, NRW and Lower Saxony) are now pressing the remaining 13 states and federal government to open up the hotels, cafes, restaurants, and bars. A basic plan is being chatted about and it's pretty good odds that something will happen within the the next ten days. The Chancellor has hinted strongly that the 6th of May is the next point where big decisions will be announced.
4. The perception that Chancellor Merkel is holding back the easing of restrictions and bans? Several German states are now progressing way beyond the 'norm', and getting some criticism from Merkel over this. But adding to the mess....the federal government hasn't exactly been the 'lead' for a lot of things done over the past two months.
5. With the autobahns mostly empty, some individual took his Ferrari out on the A7, and got up to 372 kph (231 mph). Cops? Nowhere to be found.
6. Czech says today (Friday), all bans are lifted. You can go to work....shopping....restaurants, etc. Czech people working in neighboring countries? Well....some rules still apply (you need to take a virus-test every two weeks). This gets you the waiver to cross the border daily.
7. First German policeman dead from the virus? Yes, from Munich (57 years old, and worked at the airport inspection team). Secondary conditions? No one says much yet.
8. New study from the Max Delbrück Center for Molecular Medicine (MDC) in Berlin.....says that the entry point for the virus is the nose.
9. In my local area of Wiesbaden, the city now reports the total infected since day one to be 296. Deduct 222 from that group, those are the well folks.
2. Rostock (in the far NE of Germany) has declared itself the first major German city to be 'recovered'. The mayor says.....the bans are basically unnecessary at this point. Accurate? It doesn't matter, people believe the guy.
3. Three German states (Baden-Wurttemberg, NRW and Lower Saxony) are now pressing the remaining 13 states and federal government to open up the hotels, cafes, restaurants, and bars. A basic plan is being chatted about and it's pretty good odds that something will happen within the the next ten days. The Chancellor has hinted strongly that the 6th of May is the next point where big decisions will be announced.
4. The perception that Chancellor Merkel is holding back the easing of restrictions and bans? Several German states are now progressing way beyond the 'norm', and getting some criticism from Merkel over this. But adding to the mess....the federal government hasn't exactly been the 'lead' for a lot of things done over the past two months.
5. With the autobahns mostly empty, some individual took his Ferrari out on the A7, and got up to 372 kph (231 mph). Cops? Nowhere to be found.
6. Czech says today (Friday), all bans are lifted. You can go to work....shopping....restaurants, etc. Czech people working in neighboring countries? Well....some rules still apply (you need to take a virus-test every two weeks). This gets you the waiver to cross the border daily.
7. First German policeman dead from the virus? Yes, from Munich (57 years old, and worked at the airport inspection team). Secondary conditions? No one says much yet.
8. New study from the Max Delbrück Center for Molecular Medicine (MDC) in Berlin.....says that the entry point for the virus is the nose.
9. In my local area of Wiesbaden, the city now reports the total infected since day one to be 296. Deduct 222 from that group, those are the well folks.
Thursday, April 23, 2020
WW II Story
This is one of those WW II history stories that I occasionally lay out on the table.
At the age of 18, John C Woods had gone to sign up with the US Navy (Spring 1929). His enlistment lasted around three to four months, before he disappeared....going AWOL. At some point in early 1930....the authorities came to notice Woods in Colorado, and returned him to the Navy. There, they did a review on Woods, and came to the decision that he was a 'nut-case'.....giving him a discharge (April 1930).
This period lasted three years, when he came to join the CCC folks. There, he lasted around two months before reaching another serious issue.....refusing to work. Here again, they did a review and determined that Woods wasn't capable of following orders. So he was discharged out yet again.
We don't know much about Woods for the next thirteen years. Most sources say he ended up at a feed-store in Kansas, and married some gal who was a nurse. Beyond that....nothing. The discharge for being a 'nut-case'? Never mentioned, and I doubt if the Army cared.
Woods ended up in a construction brigade and probably would have simply walked out of the Army with no real attachment to history. Except this one thing occurred.
In the fall of 1944, with the US Army pushing across France, various individuals were in serious problems with discipline. It reached a level where individuals were being court-martialed and put up for execution. In the middle of this....the Army was lacking an execution official.
For some odd reason, Woods noted that he had experience in this....from back in Texas and Oklahoma (two in each state). His experience? Hangman. Proof? None. Oddly, the Army didn't really go and ask questions.
Woods, who'd been noted as a 'nut-case' in 1930.....was now set to become the chief hangman for the US Army in Europe.
Months passed, and as the war closed out.....various Nazi officials were brought up for trial. Eleven were set for a serious round of court action. Herman Goring, at the head of the list.
As the cases concluded.....all were sentenced to be hung. Goring missed this by committing suicide.
What is generally written down and described over the ten hangings.....they were fairly screwed up and none were in any way or shape.....'professional'. Woods? He was in charge of all eleven, and probably displayed incompetence to the maximum extent.
Four years would pass.....Woods would still be in the Army. At this point, he'd been taken off the hangman job and sent back to the construction brigade. In 1950.....he'd been sent to the Marshall Islands (Pacific) where he was working on an electrical project, and stepped on high voltage cabling....killing him instantly.
A rare moment of history....where a nut-case simply kept coming back, and no one ever denied the guy a second chance.
At the age of 18, John C Woods had gone to sign up with the US Navy (Spring 1929). His enlistment lasted around three to four months, before he disappeared....going AWOL. At some point in early 1930....the authorities came to notice Woods in Colorado, and returned him to the Navy. There, they did a review on Woods, and came to the decision that he was a 'nut-case'.....giving him a discharge (April 1930).
This period lasted three years, when he came to join the CCC folks. There, he lasted around two months before reaching another serious issue.....refusing to work. Here again, they did a review and determined that Woods wasn't capable of following orders. So he was discharged out yet again.
We don't know much about Woods for the next thirteen years. Most sources say he ended up at a feed-store in Kansas, and married some gal who was a nurse. Beyond that....nothing. The discharge for being a 'nut-case'? Never mentioned, and I doubt if the Army cared.
Woods ended up in a construction brigade and probably would have simply walked out of the Army with no real attachment to history. Except this one thing occurred.
In the fall of 1944, with the US Army pushing across France, various individuals were in serious problems with discipline. It reached a level where individuals were being court-martialed and put up for execution. In the middle of this....the Army was lacking an execution official.
For some odd reason, Woods noted that he had experience in this....from back in Texas and Oklahoma (two in each state). His experience? Hangman. Proof? None. Oddly, the Army didn't really go and ask questions.
Woods, who'd been noted as a 'nut-case' in 1930.....was now set to become the chief hangman for the US Army in Europe.
Months passed, and as the war closed out.....various Nazi officials were brought up for trial. Eleven were set for a serious round of court action. Herman Goring, at the head of the list.
As the cases concluded.....all were sentenced to be hung. Goring missed this by committing suicide.
What is generally written down and described over the ten hangings.....they were fairly screwed up and none were in any way or shape.....'professional'. Woods? He was in charge of all eleven, and probably displayed incompetence to the maximum extent.
Four years would pass.....Woods would still be in the Army. At this point, he'd been taken off the hangman job and sent back to the construction brigade. In 1950.....he'd been sent to the Marshall Islands (Pacific) where he was working on an electrical project, and stepped on high voltage cabling....killing him instantly.
A rare moment of history....where a nut-case simply kept coming back, and no one ever denied the guy a second chance.
Wednesday, April 22, 2020
Germany and the Coronavirus: 23 April 2020
1. Deaths: 5,017 Infected: 147,496 (Focus numbers). On the trendline for the past 24 hours, infections are 'up'. Reproduction line? It's at .9......which is the max that that the experts desire. Anything above 1 is a problem. I should note as well....on the infected number, that's since day one.....with the well group roughly two-thirds of the infected number presently.
2. Some chatter going on with the loss of revenue on the isle of Mallorca (off the coast of Spain on the Med). Typically in a year, they will generate 13.5 billion Euro of tourist income. If this season doesn't happen? It'll mean a huge economic 'pit' for them to dig out of.
3. Predictions of the virus picking up again, as fall approaches? That chatter has progressed in the last week.....with the experts predicting this. Course, these are the same experts who said that summer temperatures would not affect the virus.
4. Starting next week, barbershops and hairdresser shops will re-open. The general rule will be no folks sitting around in the facility waiting for their haircut. So one would imagine folks will be standing outside. Added to this....both the customer and the hair-cutter....must be in masks.
5. France science people are starting an unusual experiment surrounding the virus.....testing with people wearing the nicotine patches. Some statistical displays have shown that heavy smokers (while getting the virus) don't have a serious bout with it (moderate is usually the words used).
6. It's been discussed in public over the past couple of days.....one of the groups financially hurt by the virus are part-time workers who are university students. For them, these jobs at cafes or restaurants was their only income. So with them shut down....the kids aren't making any pocket money.
2. Some chatter going on with the loss of revenue on the isle of Mallorca (off the coast of Spain on the Med). Typically in a year, they will generate 13.5 billion Euro of tourist income. If this season doesn't happen? It'll mean a huge economic 'pit' for them to dig out of.
3. Predictions of the virus picking up again, as fall approaches? That chatter has progressed in the last week.....with the experts predicting this. Course, these are the same experts who said that summer temperatures would not affect the virus.
4. Starting next week, barbershops and hairdresser shops will re-open. The general rule will be no folks sitting around in the facility waiting for their haircut. So one would imagine folks will be standing outside. Added to this....both the customer and the hair-cutter....must be in masks.
5. France science people are starting an unusual experiment surrounding the virus.....testing with people wearing the nicotine patches. Some statistical displays have shown that heavy smokers (while getting the virus) don't have a serious bout with it (moderate is usually the words used).
6. It's been discussed in public over the past couple of days.....one of the groups financially hurt by the virus are part-time workers who are university students. For them, these jobs at cafes or restaurants was their only income. So with them shut down....the kids aren't making any pocket money.
Ticket to the Crazy House Story
In some ways, it's comical, but via a German's viewpoint.....it's an extreme measure requiring discussion.
Over in the state of Saxony, the German state bumping up against Czech....they've had some official chatter over measures with the public, and IF you aren't COMPLAINT with the ban situation.
The government there? Composed of the CDU, Greens and SPD.
Today, by the order of the government.....twenty-two rooms were prepared at four psychiatric clinics. If dispatched to one....you would stay there until you were ready to comply or agree to ban-chatter.
Yeah, mental-holding facilities. In Alabama-terms.....'nut-houses'.
Anyone that doesn't comply with the bans and starts to act.....could be referred over to this situation.
Well, you can imagine how this came out to the general public, and they basically blasted away via social media.
The problem here? As each day passes, it's safe to say that compliance and patience have peaked out and the general public is preparing itself to move on....whether the authorities agree with them or not.
What the authorities have in their favor is that around three-quarters of the public will still listen and conduct themselves by the 'rules' or bans. The issue is that this group dissolves a little bit each day. In another month....I suspect that only half of the German public will play by the ban rules.
The fact that movie theaters probably won't open anytime this summer, or swimming pools, or sports facilities? You simply are inviting an issue to grow. Add onto that....the brothels are shut down for probably the rest of the year.....places like bowling alleys won't be open anytime soon, and social life has come to a virtual halt.
The best you can hope for is that bars and pubs might open in mid-May.
Who came up with the idea of driving people to some mental-holding facility? Unknown. That guy probably was half-joking and thinking it was just severe cynical views being offered, and folks took him serious.
Over in the state of Saxony, the German state bumping up against Czech....they've had some official chatter over measures with the public, and IF you aren't COMPLAINT with the ban situation.
The government there? Composed of the CDU, Greens and SPD.
Today, by the order of the government.....twenty-two rooms were prepared at four psychiatric clinics. If dispatched to one....you would stay there until you were ready to comply or agree to ban-chatter.
Yeah, mental-holding facilities. In Alabama-terms.....'nut-houses'.
Anyone that doesn't comply with the bans and starts to act.....could be referred over to this situation.
Well, you can imagine how this came out to the general public, and they basically blasted away via social media.
The problem here? As each day passes, it's safe to say that compliance and patience have peaked out and the general public is preparing itself to move on....whether the authorities agree with them or not.
What the authorities have in their favor is that around three-quarters of the public will still listen and conduct themselves by the 'rules' or bans. The issue is that this group dissolves a little bit each day. In another month....I suspect that only half of the German public will play by the ban rules.
The fact that movie theaters probably won't open anytime this summer, or swimming pools, or sports facilities? You simply are inviting an issue to grow. Add onto that....the brothels are shut down for probably the rest of the year.....places like bowling alleys won't be open anytime soon, and social life has come to a virtual halt.
The best you can hope for is that bars and pubs might open in mid-May.
Who came up with the idea of driving people to some mental-holding facility? Unknown. That guy probably was half-joking and thinking it was just severe cynical views being offered, and folks took him serious.
Germany and the Coronavirus: 22 April 2020
1. Deaths: 4,735 Infections: 144,814 (Focus Numbers). Bavaria leads the state-count with 1,354 deaths.
2. Hessen passed a requirement.....if in public, you must wear a mask.....meaning stores or public transportation. Starts Monday (27 April). Type? Any type....even a handkerchief.
3. Significant amount of criticism building up in the state of NRW (northwest Germany) over school restarting. Parents, teachers, directors, and political figures all hyped up.
4. N-TV had a curious piece this morning over a new treatment idea. The Max Plank Institute came up with the idea of testing a TB vaccine against the virus. In a test with 1,000 medical personnel vaccinated.....the test results show that the affect of the virus on these personnel....were lessened. In simple terms, it's boosting the immune system to handle the virus. It doesn't halt the virus or prevent it. There's supposed to be a second study done now, with 1,800 older folks.
5. Carsten Maschmeyer is a fairly well known businessman in Germany and respected for his opinion. In an interview, he suspects that one in five pubs, cafes and restaurants will fail shortly because of the virus. A recession-period for the next year? He's predicting this in a strong way.
2. Hessen passed a requirement.....if in public, you must wear a mask.....meaning stores or public transportation. Starts Monday (27 April). Type? Any type....even a handkerchief.
3. Significant amount of criticism building up in the state of NRW (northwest Germany) over school restarting. Parents, teachers, directors, and political figures all hyped up.
4. N-TV had a curious piece this morning over a new treatment idea. The Max Plank Institute came up with the idea of testing a TB vaccine against the virus. In a test with 1,000 medical personnel vaccinated.....the test results show that the affect of the virus on these personnel....were lessened. In simple terms, it's boosting the immune system to handle the virus. It doesn't halt the virus or prevent it. There's supposed to be a second study done now, with 1,800 older folks.
5. Carsten Maschmeyer is a fairly well known businessman in Germany and respected for his opinion. In an interview, he suspects that one in five pubs, cafes and restaurants will fail shortly because of the virus. A recession-period for the next year? He's predicting this in a strong way.
Tuesday, April 21, 2020
Official: Oktoberfest is Cancelled
Yep.
It was heavily discussed three weeks ago, with the brewery folks and political folks of Munich engaged on the topic. Today, it was stamped final.....there will be no fest this year.
If you add it up....for the hotels, the fest people, the taxi folks, the catering crowd, the hookers, the bus companies.....it was a billion-plus Euro that came into the region. Some go as high as 1.2 billion Euro.
The last time there was no fest? 1948. The 1949 fest was a big deal....the re-start of the beer celebration.
What'll happen now? I think everyone is pursuing the goal that 2021 must allow the fest to occur.
Behind all of these discussions....the loss of tax revenue? I doubt if anyone openly talks about it, but it's a huge loss for the city, the state, and the federal revenue pot.
It was heavily discussed three weeks ago, with the brewery folks and political folks of Munich engaged on the topic. Today, it was stamped final.....there will be no fest this year.
If you add it up....for the hotels, the fest people, the taxi folks, the catering crowd, the hookers, the bus companies.....it was a billion-plus Euro that came into the region. Some go as high as 1.2 billion Euro.
The last time there was no fest? 1948. The 1949 fest was a big deal....the re-start of the beer celebration.
What'll happen now? I think everyone is pursuing the goal that 2021 must allow the fest to occur.
Behind all of these discussions....the loss of tax revenue? I doubt if anyone openly talks about it, but it's a huge loss for the city, the state, and the federal revenue pot.
Why 1969 Plays a Key Part of German History and Culture
At twenty-four years after the war ended.....we have an unusual 'path' opening up in Germany.....with kids now 'blooming', who grew up after the war, and have no reference to the Nazi period, or the rebuilding effort in the decade after the war. So several events start to occur around the late 1960s in Germany.....which to be remembered occasionally.
In the landscape, Germany is mostly run by gentlemen over the age of sixty, who were part of the 1930s/1940s crowd of Germany. A lot of them had spent time in the Bundeswehr (the Army) and had certain perceptions of 'respect'. These are individual who also didn't see a great need for divisions or demonstrations.
In the late 60's atmosphere, there are sociological developments going on, and a new view of culture. If you were standing there at this junction....you were looking at two groups who were going to clash sooner or later.
Class-struggles are being preached by intellectuals and hyped-upon for the college crowd. Marx was being openly discussed....economic woes were discussed daily in the college setting, and the state authority (judges, the police, and lawmakers) were seen in a highly negative light.
The visit by the Shah to West Berlin in 1967, with the violent riots that occurred out of that episode.....helped to form a fair amount of resentment. The shooting of Benno Ohnesorg? The authorities cleared the policeman who shot Benno, and that only added another layer of distrust. The odd fact decades later that the policeman in question was a East German 'agent'? That's rarely brought up now, but you have to wonder just how much of the social change business was a East German strategy to destabilize West Germany.
The court action in the summer of 1969 to parole four 'bad-boys' and issue an amnesty for 'political prisoners'? This got quickly dragged to the Constitutional Court (the high court of West Germany), and deemed a 'mistake'. Folks can openly laugh about the way this was handled.....but the Court said that the four 'bad-boys' had to return to custody. In simple terms.....it made a bigger mess and simply carried the chaos to a higher level.
Of the four 'bad-boys' in this little episode....only one complied and returned to custody. The other three? They go underground for a number of months....first to France, then to Italy. These three will become the core start-up group of the Red Army Faction. Shocking? Add onto it.....the name of Andreas Baader, who is the kingpin of the RAF 'gang'.
What is forming here? The youth and college crowd are forming bonds to the RAF agenda....who see a fair number of the authorities and leadership....simply as out-of-touch, and pieces of the 1930s/1940s Nazi 'path'. On the other side, the general public sees the college students and RAF group as out-of-touch, and agents of some East German conspiracy.
1969 is this turning point, where the reconstruction period after the war has closed out, and economically.....West Germany looks the best that it's seen in decades. In ranking order, if you use the GDP numbers and per capita.....they rank number one in the world. No one is suffering. If you look at the period between 1950 and 1959.....yearly growth was 8-percent on average.
So it's hard in some aspects to understand the frustration of the youth crowd or anti-authority 'kids'. Every bit of the landscape....from Hamburg to Munich....should have been a van Gogh painting with 36 magnificent colors and a bright future in the making (a house and car for worker, which would have been the 'dream' of any German in the 1920s).
In practical terms....in 1969, there were two landscapes. An outsider, or American here for a 'tour' would have stood there and admired the culture, and then felt unable to grasp the frustration of the counter-culture. I'll end this essay with the quote direct out of 'A Tale of Two Cities': "It was the best of times....it was the worst of times."
In the landscape, Germany is mostly run by gentlemen over the age of sixty, who were part of the 1930s/1940s crowd of Germany. A lot of them had spent time in the Bundeswehr (the Army) and had certain perceptions of 'respect'. These are individual who also didn't see a great need for divisions or demonstrations.
In the late 60's atmosphere, there are sociological developments going on, and a new view of culture. If you were standing there at this junction....you were looking at two groups who were going to clash sooner or later.
Class-struggles are being preached by intellectuals and hyped-upon for the college crowd. Marx was being openly discussed....economic woes were discussed daily in the college setting, and the state authority (judges, the police, and lawmakers) were seen in a highly negative light.
The visit by the Shah to West Berlin in 1967, with the violent riots that occurred out of that episode.....helped to form a fair amount of resentment. The shooting of Benno Ohnesorg? The authorities cleared the policeman who shot Benno, and that only added another layer of distrust. The odd fact decades later that the policeman in question was a East German 'agent'? That's rarely brought up now, but you have to wonder just how much of the social change business was a East German strategy to destabilize West Germany.
The court action in the summer of 1969 to parole four 'bad-boys' and issue an amnesty for 'political prisoners'? This got quickly dragged to the Constitutional Court (the high court of West Germany), and deemed a 'mistake'. Folks can openly laugh about the way this was handled.....but the Court said that the four 'bad-boys' had to return to custody. In simple terms.....it made a bigger mess and simply carried the chaos to a higher level.
Of the four 'bad-boys' in this little episode....only one complied and returned to custody. The other three? They go underground for a number of months....first to France, then to Italy. These three will become the core start-up group of the Red Army Faction. Shocking? Add onto it.....the name of Andreas Baader, who is the kingpin of the RAF 'gang'.
What is forming here? The youth and college crowd are forming bonds to the RAF agenda....who see a fair number of the authorities and leadership....simply as out-of-touch, and pieces of the 1930s/1940s Nazi 'path'. On the other side, the general public sees the college students and RAF group as out-of-touch, and agents of some East German conspiracy.
1969 is this turning point, where the reconstruction period after the war has closed out, and economically.....West Germany looks the best that it's seen in decades. In ranking order, if you use the GDP numbers and per capita.....they rank number one in the world. No one is suffering. If you look at the period between 1950 and 1959.....yearly growth was 8-percent on average.
So it's hard in some aspects to understand the frustration of the youth crowd or anti-authority 'kids'. Every bit of the landscape....from Hamburg to Munich....should have been a van Gogh painting with 36 magnificent colors and a bright future in the making (a house and car for worker, which would have been the 'dream' of any German in the 1920s).
In practical terms....in 1969, there were two landscapes. An outsider, or American here for a 'tour' would have stood there and admired the culture, and then felt unable to grasp the frustration of the counter-culture. I'll end this essay with the quote direct out of 'A Tale of Two Cities': "It was the best of times....it was the worst of times."
German and the Coronavirus: 21 April 2020
1. Deaths: 4,503 Infections: 142,422 (Focus numbers). Both Bavaria and Baden-Wurttemberg have topped 1,000 deaths each.
2. Next week, barbershops and hairdressers can reopen. However, long discussions are being a problem over hygiene and how the business will be handled. Some say that masks will be mandatory. Others are saying that even the number of customers within the shop have to be controlled in some fashion.
3. Presently, there is chatter about 70,000 restaurants and hotels in Germany with serious financial jeopardy going on. The suggestion is that the bulk will have to declare bankruptcy unless normal conditions return to order.
4. Some talk started up about summer vacations this week. Of one urgent problem.....almost one-third of the Greek business sector is dependent on tourism. If it doesn't happen......there's a massive problem affecting the stability of Greece and it's economy.
5. Last night, Minister of Economics for Germany....Pete Altmaier gave an interview on late TV.....with one serious blame. The nation is really functioning with sixteen different rule sets. The states are running various programs, and you could find various interpretations differing....depending on which state you stand in. As Altmaier indicates, you have to play the game because the federal government isn't 'all-powerful'.
6. Mask requirements? If you walk around.....you need to pay attention to the state and city you are in.....and if masks are required. So you basically need to carry a mask on your person (even if you don't believe in their effect) and pretend along with everyone else.
7. Soccer restarting on 9 May? Maybe.....but it'll be 'ghost' games (no fans).
2. Next week, barbershops and hairdressers can reopen. However, long discussions are being a problem over hygiene and how the business will be handled. Some say that masks will be mandatory. Others are saying that even the number of customers within the shop have to be controlled in some fashion.
3. Presently, there is chatter about 70,000 restaurants and hotels in Germany with serious financial jeopardy going on. The suggestion is that the bulk will have to declare bankruptcy unless normal conditions return to order.
4. Some talk started up about summer vacations this week. Of one urgent problem.....almost one-third of the Greek business sector is dependent on tourism. If it doesn't happen......there's a massive problem affecting the stability of Greece and it's economy.
5. Last night, Minister of Economics for Germany....Pete Altmaier gave an interview on late TV.....with one serious blame. The nation is really functioning with sixteen different rule sets. The states are running various programs, and you could find various interpretations differing....depending on which state you stand in. As Altmaier indicates, you have to play the game because the federal government isn't 'all-powerful'.
6. Mask requirements? If you walk around.....you need to pay attention to the state and city you are in.....and if masks are required. So you basically need to carry a mask on your person (even if you don't believe in their effect) and pretend along with everyone else.
7. Soccer restarting on 9 May? Maybe.....but it'll be 'ghost' games (no fans).
BER Chatter
It's a five-line news piece to be honest, and in the midst of the virus stuff.....it's just minor news.
The TUV people (the government folks who inspect and stamp things 'operational') have gone through the BER Airport in Berlin and said all the safety features are now in place. The Airport.....near 9 years in delay.....will open this fall (virtually guaranteed now). N-TV carries the best update and worth reading.
The original cost estimate? Around one billion Euro (1.2 billion dollars). Today, with delays and refurbishment.....the cost is near seven billion Euro (8 billion dollars).
The plan now with the two other airports? Tegal will shutdown, and be torn down. Usage is what is left as a question-mark. Schonfeld will continue....as the excess airport to handle what traffic that BER can't handle. Yeah, that was not the original plan, but things have gotten pretty screwed up over the past decade. Some experts even suggested around 2016....that another terminal and runway should be added to BER, and frankly.....they couldn't do that because BER wasn't even ready to open with the original plan.
Does the air traffic business even matter during the virus-crisis? That's a curious thing. Right now with Frankfurt....they are marginally carrying 5-percent of what would be considered normal. So you could see BER opening in the fall, and marginally handling less than forty flights a day.
The TUV people (the government folks who inspect and stamp things 'operational') have gone through the BER Airport in Berlin and said all the safety features are now in place. The Airport.....near 9 years in delay.....will open this fall (virtually guaranteed now). N-TV carries the best update and worth reading.
The original cost estimate? Around one billion Euro (1.2 billion dollars). Today, with delays and refurbishment.....the cost is near seven billion Euro (8 billion dollars).
The plan now with the two other airports? Tegal will shutdown, and be torn down. Usage is what is left as a question-mark. Schonfeld will continue....as the excess airport to handle what traffic that BER can't handle. Yeah, that was not the original plan, but things have gotten pretty screwed up over the past decade. Some experts even suggested around 2016....that another terminal and runway should be added to BER, and frankly.....they couldn't do that because BER wasn't even ready to open with the original plan.
Does the air traffic business even matter during the virus-crisis? That's a curious thing. Right now with Frankfurt....they are marginally carrying 5-percent of what would be considered normal. So you could see BER opening in the fall, and marginally handling less than forty flights a day.
Will the German Bundesliga Survive On?
The German soccer league is at a crossroads in this virus-period, and nothing is very clear.
Facts on the table? If you count both the first level and the second level.....a minimum of twelve clubs are in serious financial jeopardy and will likely go to a bankruptcy situation by late summer. The only way that games can proceed presently? 'Ghost' games....meaning the teams and referees participate but no fans allowed into the stadium (meaning no tickets are sold).
There is a good bit of talk that 'ghost' games will be starting up shortly. It helps the players keep focused and in shape, but without the fans in the stadium....it'll be hard to generate enthusiasm.
What'll happen as fall and the new season starts up? I'll go and predict that the dozen clubs in financial jeopardy will have judges assume control, and new management put in charge. However, if there is no real profit to be made.....how new owners come onto the scene and buy the clubs.....will be a 'Scooby-Doo' type mystery.
Some folks might go and suggest it's time to decrease the teams via both leagues. Some might suggest that the player salary structure is driving the whole game to a financial mess. And a handful of fans will suggest that the FC Bayern team (out of Munich) is some Frankenstein-monster destroying the whole league with all of their five-star players.
The real question, I would suggest.....if fans aren't allowed into the stadiums by the fall....then will it ever recover?
Facts on the table? If you count both the first level and the second level.....a minimum of twelve clubs are in serious financial jeopardy and will likely go to a bankruptcy situation by late summer. The only way that games can proceed presently? 'Ghost' games....meaning the teams and referees participate but no fans allowed into the stadium (meaning no tickets are sold).
There is a good bit of talk that 'ghost' games will be starting up shortly. It helps the players keep focused and in shape, but without the fans in the stadium....it'll be hard to generate enthusiasm.
What'll happen as fall and the new season starts up? I'll go and predict that the dozen clubs in financial jeopardy will have judges assume control, and new management put in charge. However, if there is no real profit to be made.....how new owners come onto the scene and buy the clubs.....will be a 'Scooby-Doo' type mystery.
Some folks might go and suggest it's time to decrease the teams via both leagues. Some might suggest that the player salary structure is driving the whole game to a financial mess. And a handful of fans will suggest that the FC Bayern team (out of Munich) is some Frankenstein-monster destroying the whole league with all of their five-star players.
The real question, I would suggest.....if fans aren't allowed into the stadiums by the fall....then will it ever recover?
Monday, April 20, 2020
Offnungsdiskussionsorgien?
"Öffnungsdiskussionsorgien" is a new German word, and might be the word of the year.
It's one of those 24-letter words that Germans invent out of thin-air. When I first looked at it, and did the English translation....it comes out to being 'opening discussion orgies (plural)'.
Naturally, me being from the US (Alabama)....if you and tried to use this word 'orgy' and it'd trigger my associates to ask if I'm talking about a open discussion with several couples for a group orgy. You know....like those in a house-trailer park where you got six couples, four cases of beer, and chips. The type of party that doesn't get discussed in public, but always hinted that it's a 'sure-thing'.
But then you gotta remember.....we are talking about Germans here. So Offungsdiskussionsorgien is this term where the news media is hyped up and they want to know in some open forum....when ALL things will open up from the virus-business.
Yeah, they basically want you the political figure to sign up and give them a day for X, Y, and Z.
In the Chancellor Merkel world, this is a NO-GO. You never (ever) establish an iron-clad date or promise. You always label things as a 'work in progress'. Merkel would just as soon sign up for a root-canal episode.....than go and promise something on particular day.
There are a thousand things I do enjoy about Germany, but these 20-letter invented phrases/words, and what they really mean.....is a big negative. And don't even bother asking if this is a die, der or das phrase.
It's one of those 24-letter words that Germans invent out of thin-air. When I first looked at it, and did the English translation....it comes out to being 'opening discussion orgies (plural)'.
Naturally, me being from the US (Alabama)....if you and tried to use this word 'orgy' and it'd trigger my associates to ask if I'm talking about a open discussion with several couples for a group orgy. You know....like those in a house-trailer park where you got six couples, four cases of beer, and chips. The type of party that doesn't get discussed in public, but always hinted that it's a 'sure-thing'.
But then you gotta remember.....we are talking about Germans here. So Offungsdiskussionsorgien is this term where the news media is hyped up and they want to know in some open forum....when ALL things will open up from the virus-business.
Yeah, they basically want you the political figure to sign up and give them a day for X, Y, and Z.
In the Chancellor Merkel world, this is a NO-GO. You never (ever) establish an iron-clad date or promise. You always label things as a 'work in progress'. Merkel would just as soon sign up for a root-canal episode.....than go and promise something on particular day.
There are a thousand things I do enjoy about Germany, but these 20-letter invented phrases/words, and what they really mean.....is a big negative. And don't even bother asking if this is a die, der or das phrase.
A Chicken Story
So this is a local story concerning Wiesbaden, and you have to be amused at the current state of affairs and the level of crime in the city.
About a week ago (9 April)....some burglars got into the freezer area of the local Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) operation over by the old Air Force Station (Lindsey).....along Schiersteiner Strasse.
They basically stole a number of 'bags' of frozen chicken. Value is assessed at somewhere in the hundreds of Euro.
They exit the building and then call a taxi (yes, they actually called for a get-a-way vehicle in the form of a taxi). You can imagine the driver standing there, and helping the folks load the bags.
The taxi driver took them to their destination in town. The next day.....the driver gets all suspicious and calls the cops.
So the police piece together the crime, and the location of the delivery. Three young men are then arrested . At the time of the police arrival....they were actually cooking up some of the KFC chicken. Things were secured and the 'kids' arrested.
The thing is....they are all juveniles, and it has to now be handled by the Youth Law folks in town. So, no jail-time, and some youth-counseling episode will likely be the end result.
About a week ago (9 April)....some burglars got into the freezer area of the local Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) operation over by the old Air Force Station (Lindsey).....along Schiersteiner Strasse.
They basically stole a number of 'bags' of frozen chicken. Value is assessed at somewhere in the hundreds of Euro.
They exit the building and then call a taxi (yes, they actually called for a get-a-way vehicle in the form of a taxi). You can imagine the driver standing there, and helping the folks load the bags.
The taxi driver took them to their destination in town. The next day.....the driver gets all suspicious and calls the cops.
So the police piece together the crime, and the location of the delivery. Three young men are then arrested . At the time of the police arrival....they were actually cooking up some of the KFC chicken. Things were secured and the 'kids' arrested.
The thing is....they are all juveniles, and it has to now be handled by the Youth Law folks in town. So, no jail-time, and some youth-counseling episode will likely be the end result.
Germany and the Coronavirus: 20 April 2020
1. Deaths: 4,415 Infections: 142,422 (Focus numbers)
2. Childcare or kindergartens to open soon? No.....don't anticipate that.
3. Schools in Germany (for the most part) will open on 4 May. Summer vacation periods coming up? Well....yeah, that's curious thing. By mid-to-late May period, you'd be in serious relaxation in school.....doing virtually nothing challenging for the final four weeks of school. So the value of opening, at least to me, is pretty empty.
4. Church ban? Continues on. Oddly, they aren't arguing like some folks in the US.
5. Rules still differing state by state? OH YEAH. For example, if you live in the state of Bavaria, the exit-rule is still in effect. You don't exit the house unless it's for essential stuff. That goes to 3 May right now. Some cities have issued mask mandates, where you can't enter any shop or grocery, without a mask. So where you live....means paying attention to the rules. You can go over to the Focus site and read the state-by-state bans/rules (in German).
6. The Anne Will Show last night (ARD's public forum carried live at 9:45 PM) hit on one particular subject.....the journalists wanted a get-well-soon listing from the politicians, and the one political figure from the CDU (Altmaier)....refused to play the game. In simple terms, there's no script, and people are making best-guess judgments as each week goes by.
7. Czech talking about a one-year border closure? Well, this is openly discussed. They would allow truckers to enter, but Czech people couldn't leave, and non-Czechs couldn't enter. It's an extreme view that most people appear to question. It might be enforceable for 90 days, but an entire year?
8. It's kinda come out in Germany that in the retail, medical and administrative fields.....there are around a half-million Germans who are single-parents. The schedules and threat of a virus....has brought these people up to the top....to be noticed.
9. Ice cream rules? Here in the Wiesbaden area, starting today....ice cream shops can open. But there are rules. So the idea of the edible cups? Out. Eating in a public park or public lawn? That's out as well. Eating within 50 meters of the shop where you bought it? That's forbidden as well. So you can buy it in a plain paper cup, and walk 50 meters away.....to eat it.
10. The local Hessen amateur soccer league killed off for the fall of 2020? Yep, there's the chatter that they won't even attempt to reopen in the fall.
11. Friday evening of last week, I sat and watched a five-minute news piece....over a German farm tractor production plant. The manager is the only guy in the factory.....currently at work. His biggest problem? Some parts for the tractor are made in Italy, and they aren't that sure about when production will start back up. The German manager was a bit peeved.....he can't forecast nothing for his employees. He's got dozens of tractors on the assembly line....that can't be moved forward to complete, because of the parts shortage.
12. Sunday German package delivery? Normally, that would be a forbidden topic. The German Post has brought up the idea of allowing Sunday delivery on packages. In simple terms.....folks are ordering a heck of a lot of stuff, and that's screwed-up the current manpower situation. How this would play out? Well, it's a state-by-state permission thing. So you could have DHL delivering in the Pfalz, but across the river in Hessen....it might be forbidden.
13. Domestic tourism? Let's be kinda honest, about half of all Germans really don't care about a week or two of vacation in Germany.....they want something 'exotic' (don't ask). You know....foreign (like Ibiza, Thailand, or Egypt). So political folks are trying to hype the idea that bans could drop and regional hotels could be opened....to allow you a vacation this summer, in a German landscape.
How many folks would accept this? Unknown. With my German wife, she'd let me know right away that various places are not going to be on her list (most of former East Germany for example).
But this is a point of desperation.....most Germans will take a week or two each summer and go somewhere.....telling you that they need it bad. So if you say airports are forbidden, and you don't feel safe in Italy or Spain....what's left? A week in Rostock? A week on some rustic farm in Bavaria?
14. Finally, the Health Minister (Spahn) said in a very blunt way.....the hygiene rules and bans.....might be around for the rest of 2020. He didn't want anyone getting their hopes up. That 1.5 meter social distance rule? I might suspect that it'll be around for three-plus years.
2. Childcare or kindergartens to open soon? No.....don't anticipate that.
3. Schools in Germany (for the most part) will open on 4 May. Summer vacation periods coming up? Well....yeah, that's curious thing. By mid-to-late May period, you'd be in serious relaxation in school.....doing virtually nothing challenging for the final four weeks of school. So the value of opening, at least to me, is pretty empty.
4. Church ban? Continues on. Oddly, they aren't arguing like some folks in the US.
5. Rules still differing state by state? OH YEAH. For example, if you live in the state of Bavaria, the exit-rule is still in effect. You don't exit the house unless it's for essential stuff. That goes to 3 May right now. Some cities have issued mask mandates, where you can't enter any shop or grocery, without a mask. So where you live....means paying attention to the rules. You can go over to the Focus site and read the state-by-state bans/rules (in German).
6. The Anne Will Show last night (ARD's public forum carried live at 9:45 PM) hit on one particular subject.....the journalists wanted a get-well-soon listing from the politicians, and the one political figure from the CDU (Altmaier)....refused to play the game. In simple terms, there's no script, and people are making best-guess judgments as each week goes by.
7. Czech talking about a one-year border closure? Well, this is openly discussed. They would allow truckers to enter, but Czech people couldn't leave, and non-Czechs couldn't enter. It's an extreme view that most people appear to question. It might be enforceable for 90 days, but an entire year?
8. It's kinda come out in Germany that in the retail, medical and administrative fields.....there are around a half-million Germans who are single-parents. The schedules and threat of a virus....has brought these people up to the top....to be noticed.
9. Ice cream rules? Here in the Wiesbaden area, starting today....ice cream shops can open. But there are rules. So the idea of the edible cups? Out. Eating in a public park or public lawn? That's out as well. Eating within 50 meters of the shop where you bought it? That's forbidden as well. So you can buy it in a plain paper cup, and walk 50 meters away.....to eat it.
10. The local Hessen amateur soccer league killed off for the fall of 2020? Yep, there's the chatter that they won't even attempt to reopen in the fall.
11. Friday evening of last week, I sat and watched a five-minute news piece....over a German farm tractor production plant. The manager is the only guy in the factory.....currently at work. His biggest problem? Some parts for the tractor are made in Italy, and they aren't that sure about when production will start back up. The German manager was a bit peeved.....he can't forecast nothing for his employees. He's got dozens of tractors on the assembly line....that can't be moved forward to complete, because of the parts shortage.
12. Sunday German package delivery? Normally, that would be a forbidden topic. The German Post has brought up the idea of allowing Sunday delivery on packages. In simple terms.....folks are ordering a heck of a lot of stuff, and that's screwed-up the current manpower situation. How this would play out? Well, it's a state-by-state permission thing. So you could have DHL delivering in the Pfalz, but across the river in Hessen....it might be forbidden.
13. Domestic tourism? Let's be kinda honest, about half of all Germans really don't care about a week or two of vacation in Germany.....they want something 'exotic' (don't ask). You know....foreign (like Ibiza, Thailand, or Egypt). So political folks are trying to hype the idea that bans could drop and regional hotels could be opened....to allow you a vacation this summer, in a German landscape.
How many folks would accept this? Unknown. With my German wife, she'd let me know right away that various places are not going to be on her list (most of former East Germany for example).
But this is a point of desperation.....most Germans will take a week or two each summer and go somewhere.....telling you that they need it bad. So if you say airports are forbidden, and you don't feel safe in Italy or Spain....what's left? A week in Rostock? A week on some rustic farm in Bavaria?
14. Finally, the Health Minister (Spahn) said in a very blunt way.....the hygiene rules and bans.....might be around for the rest of 2020. He didn't want anyone getting their hopes up. That 1.5 meter social distance rule? I might suspect that it'll be around for three-plus years.
Masks in Germany
Focus carried a particularly good piece this morning on the mask situation in Germany.
In the past week, a shipment of 80-million masks arrived, and there's some belief that it'll make a big difference.
The problem here though? The Health Minister (Spahn) made it blunt.....there is no 'guard' at the door to really inventory and ensure these are quality masks. For the most part, they are relying on the distribution chain to work.
Setting up the German market to make it's masks? That's the funny part of the discussion.....almost all of the masks you see.....were made in China. So there's an effort going on, and what the Health Minister says is that by August (a good 75 days away).....they will finally have around fifty-odd companies in Germany who make the masks. The weekly production cycle? For the high-quality FFP-2 type.....10-million. For the one-time use type? Forty-million.
Costs? Never discussed. Lets be honest, whatever you were paying last year to the Chinese (before all this crap occurred)....to get a German-made mask....it's probably in the 2.5-times cost level (my humble opinion). But here's the other side of the discussion.....you can be about 99-percent sure that you can open a box of 300 masks, and not a single one of them will be a failed product or be a counterfeit type.
In the past week, a shipment of 80-million masks arrived, and there's some belief that it'll make a big difference.
The problem here though? The Health Minister (Spahn) made it blunt.....there is no 'guard' at the door to really inventory and ensure these are quality masks. For the most part, they are relying on the distribution chain to work.
Setting up the German market to make it's masks? That's the funny part of the discussion.....almost all of the masks you see.....were made in China. So there's an effort going on, and what the Health Minister says is that by August (a good 75 days away).....they will finally have around fifty-odd companies in Germany who make the masks. The weekly production cycle? For the high-quality FFP-2 type.....10-million. For the one-time use type? Forty-million.
Costs? Never discussed. Lets be honest, whatever you were paying last year to the Chinese (before all this crap occurred)....to get a German-made mask....it's probably in the 2.5-times cost level (my humble opinion). But here's the other side of the discussion.....you can be about 99-percent sure that you can open a box of 300 masks, and not a single one of them will be a failed product or be a counterfeit type.
German Businesses Finished for 2020
Because of the Coronavirus, there are certain industries and services, which I don't see coming back anytime in the next seven months.
1. Significant or upper-class hotels. For most part, I'd say virtually all hotels are going to be shut-down for the next hundred-odd days. But you need international travelers and the German elite to carry the 5-star hotels around Germany, and I just don't see that coming back in 2020.
2. Amusement parks. Around Germany, there must be around twenty of these parks, and I think the 'foot-traffic' will be sparse for the remainder of the year.
3. Theaters and kinos. People will be in fear of the virus and hanging out at some kino to watch marginal love-movie made in Iceland, or three half-wit Bavarian guys solving a murder.....just won't be enough to convince you to sit in a place with forty people coughing.
4. Brothels. Can you imagine the local health establishments going and approving these to re-open....with the virus still active? On the other hand, can you imagine almost half-a-million German men who've now gone an entire month without a visit to their local brothel, and looking at the situation that it not open again for the rest of 2020?
5. Massage therapists. This service activity has come on big in the past twenty years and in a town like Wiesbaden.....there must be at least twenty shops around. This is another one that I'd see as hard-hit.
1. Significant or upper-class hotels. For most part, I'd say virtually all hotels are going to be shut-down for the next hundred-odd days. But you need international travelers and the German elite to carry the 5-star hotels around Germany, and I just don't see that coming back in 2020.
2. Amusement parks. Around Germany, there must be around twenty of these parks, and I think the 'foot-traffic' will be sparse for the remainder of the year.
3. Theaters and kinos. People will be in fear of the virus and hanging out at some kino to watch marginal love-movie made in Iceland, or three half-wit Bavarian guys solving a murder.....just won't be enough to convince you to sit in a place with forty people coughing.
4. Brothels. Can you imagine the local health establishments going and approving these to re-open....with the virus still active? On the other hand, can you imagine almost half-a-million German men who've now gone an entire month without a visit to their local brothel, and looking at the situation that it not open again for the rest of 2020?
5. Massage therapists. This service activity has come on big in the past twenty years and in a town like Wiesbaden.....there must be at least twenty shops around. This is another one that I'd see as hard-hit.
Sunday, April 19, 2020
Germany and the Coronavirus: 19 April 2020
1. Deaths: 4,288 Infected: 140,450 (Focus numbers).
2. There was supposed to be a continued 'ban' on larger stores opening up. Well....here in Hessen, they evaluated the situation....realizing that some other states are allowing the big stores to open under high-hygiene conditions. So the relaxation period is to occur on Monday....if you have a store bigger than 800 square meters. The Pfalz is doing the same basic thing.
The key quote here: "separation of the sales area must be "unmistakable and clear" for the customers."
Also, there can't be more than one customer for each 20 square meters of space.
3. The telephone consultation 'rule' that allowed you to phone your doctor....describe your symptoms, and get a sick-slip or virus-test? That's supposed to end tomorrow....unless the government extends the waiver.
4. Germans are actively reporting on their neighbors for violations of the social ban business. Several folks in Bavaria were noted for bar-b-q events with friends and associates....with the cops issuing a violation 'ticket'.
5. The Economics Minister (Altmaier) has said 'no' to the idea from the Finance Minister for increased taxes during this period.
6. Wolfsburg added the mask rule.....if you are in a public area (bus, sidewalk, tram)....you have no choice but to wear a mask.
7. The Bundeswehr (German Army) normally conducts 'boot-camp' in cycles. The present cycle is being postponed.
2. There was supposed to be a continued 'ban' on larger stores opening up. Well....here in Hessen, they evaluated the situation....realizing that some other states are allowing the big stores to open under high-hygiene conditions. So the relaxation period is to occur on Monday....if you have a store bigger than 800 square meters. The Pfalz is doing the same basic thing.
The key quote here: "separation of the sales area must be "unmistakable and clear" for the customers."
Also, there can't be more than one customer for each 20 square meters of space.
3. The telephone consultation 'rule' that allowed you to phone your doctor....describe your symptoms, and get a sick-slip or virus-test? That's supposed to end tomorrow....unless the government extends the waiver.
4. Germans are actively reporting on their neighbors for violations of the social ban business. Several folks in Bavaria were noted for bar-b-q events with friends and associates....with the cops issuing a violation 'ticket'.
5. The Economics Minister (Altmaier) has said 'no' to the idea from the Finance Minister for increased taxes during this period.
6. Wolfsburg added the mask rule.....if you are in a public area (bus, sidewalk, tram)....you have no choice but to wear a mask.
7. The Bundeswehr (German Army) normally conducts 'boot-camp' in cycles. The present cycle is being postponed.
Saturday, April 18, 2020
Drinking During the Corona Period
This is the blunt side of the Coronavirus period.....increased drinking (in Germany).
N-TV put up a piece and discussed this to a degree.
First, remember that bars and pubs are shut down, and if you want to drink....you do it on your patio, balcony, or backyard. This shutdown period started up in February.
Alcohol purchases at grocery stores and drink-shops are up.
At least one-third more wine sales have occurred in the past month. Same story with booze....going up around 31-percent (talking about gin or whiskey). The pre-mixed bottles/cans? Up by 87-percent. Even beer went up by almost 12-percent.
So what's all of this mean? If you get stuck with cabin-fever (isolation)....people tend to drink more. They drink in the house....on the patio....or on the balcony.
No one talks about the summer months coming up....when a lot of Germans would typically be in a local beer-garden. So I expect even more sales to occur, if the pubs don't open.
N-TV put up a piece and discussed this to a degree.
First, remember that bars and pubs are shut down, and if you want to drink....you do it on your patio, balcony, or backyard. This shutdown period started up in February.
Alcohol purchases at grocery stores and drink-shops are up.
At least one-third more wine sales have occurred in the past month. Same story with booze....going up around 31-percent (talking about gin or whiskey). The pre-mixed bottles/cans? Up by 87-percent. Even beer went up by almost 12-percent.
So what's all of this mean? If you get stuck with cabin-fever (isolation)....people tend to drink more. They drink in the house....on the patio....or on the balcony.
No one talks about the summer months coming up....when a lot of Germans would typically be in a local beer-garden. So I expect even more sales to occur, if the pubs don't open.
'Short-Time' Suggestion Going On
This morning, via a N-TV chat piece....the German Minister of Labor (Heil, SPD) is making a call for increased 'cash' for German workers on 'short-time' work.
For those unfamiliar with 'short-time'....it's a German vehicle that the company can put you on a furlough (still on the books, but not working). The government, via a funding account will basically cover you, with 60-percent of your normal pay (if you are single) and 67-percent if you have kids.
The money 'funnel' has been around for a number of years, and often used by various companies for harsh periods of negative economics.
So what Heil is talking about....is a raise of the state funding to 80-percent of your normal paycheck.
Most Germans will suggest that you can go for about 90 days with the normal 'short-time' situation before you start to have problems. The 60-percent deal isn't that great of a benefit, but it allows companies to shut-down and at least give you a marginal check in this rough period.
The problem with Heil's proposal? Some economic experts think that a fair portion of the German public will be on furlough for six months as a minimum. Throwing another 20-percent might be helpful but the cash will have to come from the government tax revenue bucket.
Odds of this happening? Unless things dramatically change over the next month.....I might go and suggest this will happen by the end of May.
For those unfamiliar with 'short-time'....it's a German vehicle that the company can put you on a furlough (still on the books, but not working). The government, via a funding account will basically cover you, with 60-percent of your normal pay (if you are single) and 67-percent if you have kids.
The money 'funnel' has been around for a number of years, and often used by various companies for harsh periods of negative economics.
So what Heil is talking about....is a raise of the state funding to 80-percent of your normal paycheck.
Most Germans will suggest that you can go for about 90 days with the normal 'short-time' situation before you start to have problems. The 60-percent deal isn't that great of a benefit, but it allows companies to shut-down and at least give you a marginal check in this rough period.
The problem with Heil's proposal? Some economic experts think that a fair portion of the German public will be on furlough for six months as a minimum. Throwing another 20-percent might be helpful but the cash will have to come from the government tax revenue bucket.
Odds of this happening? Unless things dramatically change over the next month.....I might go and suggest this will happen by the end of May.
Germany and the Coronavirus: 18 April 2020
1. Deaths: 4,104 Infections: 137,853 (Focus numbers)
2. Bavaria leads the states with 1,164 deaths.
3. Saxony moved ahead of the 16 state governments to mandate a facial mask of any type (even a scarf) is required if you ride the bus or train, or work in retail operations. A few hours after that....Mecklenburg (the state) went to the same rule.
4. In general, the Bahn trains are running on a 80-percent schedule. Some chatter indicates that it'll increase over the next week.
5. Brandenburg will now allow/authorize minor demonstrations (20 people or less). Most states are not allowing demonstrations at this point.
6. A fair number of Germans are getting negative about 'public-sheriffs' (individuals who call the police if you've apparently violated any of the bans). The term is used in a critical and negative way.
7. Ice cream stands will re-open on Monday (only for take-away). It's a big sign of things returning to normal.
2. Bavaria leads the states with 1,164 deaths.
3. Saxony moved ahead of the 16 state governments to mandate a facial mask of any type (even a scarf) is required if you ride the bus or train, or work in retail operations. A few hours after that....Mecklenburg (the state) went to the same rule.
4. In general, the Bahn trains are running on a 80-percent schedule. Some chatter indicates that it'll increase over the next week.
5. Brandenburg will now allow/authorize minor demonstrations (20 people or less). Most states are not allowing demonstrations at this point.
6. A fair number of Germans are getting negative about 'public-sheriffs' (individuals who call the police if you've apparently violated any of the bans). The term is used in a critical and negative way.
7. Ice cream stands will re-open on Monday (only for take-away). It's a big sign of things returning to normal.
Friday, April 17, 2020
Setting the Record Straight
Over the past week, I've seen a variety of German stories reported in the US press, which were basically incorrect, or just plain 'wrong'.....so this is for the record:
1. Germans are mass-testing everyone.
NO. They've never mass-tested and German doctors would tell you it's a waste of time and effort.
First, you go and call your doctor to suggest you have symptoms. He'll tell you...DON'T show up at the office or clinic. He'll then ask around ten questions. Depending on how you answer.....you get tested (with a script sent to a county office) or he tells you it's plain flu.
You show up at the county office.....knocking on the door, and someone comes out to swab you. The charge goes to your health insurance that the doctor has a record of (figure a value around 200 to 250 dollars). Twenty-four hours later, a result.
If you have the virus, there are two routes: stay-at-home and endure.....or you go to a hospital unit. Again, your doctor will assess your records and see if you have a secondary condition which bumps you up to the hospital.
2. The rate is low for the German rate of infection.
Well....compared to Italy, France and Spain....this is true. However, three German states (Bavaria, NRW, and Baden-Wurttemberg carry the bulk of the infections....near 80-percent). The five eastern states of the country marginally have any real infections or death counts. Why? Unknown.....people ask about this but no real answers.
3. The infections came from the Chinese visitors.
Only marginally true. In the very beginning.....that was true with the first case.
After that....it came mostly from a big ski-weekend in Austria where contaminated Germans returned and passed it onto others. Toss in the Fasching celebration in March, and that helped to bump the numbers way up where Germans infected themselves.
4. Lots of Germans have died.
No, it's roughly 4,000 at this point. The bulk of these....probably near 90-percent, are people over the age of 65. That's the same results as you see in Italy.
5. Lots of German older patients used ventilators.
No. If you go to the Health Minister, he says that the bulk were put into the hospital quickly and early....on regular oxygen, and the vast majority did NOT require the ventilator. At some point, they even took in French and Italian patients....because there simply weren't that many Germans requiring the ventilators.
6. Merkel was in charge of the effort.
No. The Health Minister (Spahn) was the chief guy you saw nightly. There's at least seven more political folks, who you saw more, and performed more actions....than Chancellor Merkel.
7. The German federal government out of Berlin controlled everything.
NO. The sixteen states went to various programs and bans....each varying a bit. If you were looking for one central program, one central authority.....this was NOT the case.
8. Germans easily bought into isolation and 'distancing'.
To some minor degree, yes. Cops will tell you that they've issued tens of thousands of warnings, and the public stamina to obey has waned in the past two weeks with warm weather arriving.
9. Short-work payments by the government (roughly 65-percent of your paycheck) is taking care of the bulk of German workers.
Well, it helps but if this were to go for three months? No. A lot of people would have problems with their bills. Presently, the small business folks are the ones suffering a good bit. If the furlough and shut-down were to go on for 100 days? A fair number of small business operations would not be able to come back.
10. Food shortages did not occur.
Presently, the system is working. There was a shortage of farm-workers. These were the people from Romania who would typically arrive at the end of March, and be in Germany for two to three months. With the border-crossing issues....they spent two weeks working on a plan to airlift the workers (minimum of 25,000) to Germany. If they had not worked this out....shortages of certain vegetables would have occurred.
1. Germans are mass-testing everyone.
NO. They've never mass-tested and German doctors would tell you it's a waste of time and effort.
First, you go and call your doctor to suggest you have symptoms. He'll tell you...DON'T show up at the office or clinic. He'll then ask around ten questions. Depending on how you answer.....you get tested (with a script sent to a county office) or he tells you it's plain flu.
You show up at the county office.....knocking on the door, and someone comes out to swab you. The charge goes to your health insurance that the doctor has a record of (figure a value around 200 to 250 dollars). Twenty-four hours later, a result.
If you have the virus, there are two routes: stay-at-home and endure.....or you go to a hospital unit. Again, your doctor will assess your records and see if you have a secondary condition which bumps you up to the hospital.
2. The rate is low for the German rate of infection.
Well....compared to Italy, France and Spain....this is true. However, three German states (Bavaria, NRW, and Baden-Wurttemberg carry the bulk of the infections....near 80-percent). The five eastern states of the country marginally have any real infections or death counts. Why? Unknown.....people ask about this but no real answers.
3. The infections came from the Chinese visitors.
Only marginally true. In the very beginning.....that was true with the first case.
After that....it came mostly from a big ski-weekend in Austria where contaminated Germans returned and passed it onto others. Toss in the Fasching celebration in March, and that helped to bump the numbers way up where Germans infected themselves.
4. Lots of Germans have died.
No, it's roughly 4,000 at this point. The bulk of these....probably near 90-percent, are people over the age of 65. That's the same results as you see in Italy.
5. Lots of German older patients used ventilators.
No. If you go to the Health Minister, he says that the bulk were put into the hospital quickly and early....on regular oxygen, and the vast majority did NOT require the ventilator. At some point, they even took in French and Italian patients....because there simply weren't that many Germans requiring the ventilators.
6. Merkel was in charge of the effort.
No. The Health Minister (Spahn) was the chief guy you saw nightly. There's at least seven more political folks, who you saw more, and performed more actions....than Chancellor Merkel.
7. The German federal government out of Berlin controlled everything.
NO. The sixteen states went to various programs and bans....each varying a bit. If you were looking for one central program, one central authority.....this was NOT the case.
8. Germans easily bought into isolation and 'distancing'.
To some minor degree, yes. Cops will tell you that they've issued tens of thousands of warnings, and the public stamina to obey has waned in the past two weeks with warm weather arriving.
9. Short-work payments by the government (roughly 65-percent of your paycheck) is taking care of the bulk of German workers.
Well, it helps but if this were to go for three months? No. A lot of people would have problems with their bills. Presently, the small business folks are the ones suffering a good bit. If the furlough and shut-down were to go on for 100 days? A fair number of small business operations would not be able to come back.
10. Food shortages did not occur.
Presently, the system is working. There was a shortage of farm-workers. These were the people from Romania who would typically arrive at the end of March, and be in Germany for two to three months. With the border-crossing issues....they spent two weeks working on a plan to airlift the workers (minimum of 25,000) to Germany. If they had not worked this out....shortages of certain vegetables would have occurred.
Germany and the Coronavirus: 17 April 2020
1. Deaths: 4,093 Infections: 138,135 (Focus numbers).
2. Speech by the Health Minister this morning: 1.7 million tests have been conducted to this point (it should be pointed out that if you are infected....you only come off the list if a second, possibly third test are used on you to confirm you are well). So the test numbers aren't what you think they are.
He says technically....they can do up to around 700,000 tests per week....but the average is 350k a week right now.
The reproduction number is currently .7-per person now. Awful low.
Contained in this speech....a hype by the head of the German Drug Administration....that results from a medical study over 'treatment' won't be completed until mid-July.
The fail-pass rates on the virus tests? He says that the failure-rate (meaning you have the virus) is around 10-percent. Curiously, he admitted that the rate hasn't changed much over the whole period.
When asked about mandating the mask (full-time)....he avoids that discussion.
When asked if the health system and hospitals have been overwhelmed.....he say no, there no such indications.
3. The limit of 800-square meter rule being used across the country for opening of stores? Well....NO. NRW wrote up a waiver, and stores in the region are applying the waiver to open up. Ikea is one such example.
4. German postal system is admitting huge business operations over the past month, with a lot of products ordered online.
5. The chatter about Americans dying at a higher rate while on the ventilator system, compared to the Germans? Well....one German doctor looked at the way that the system works in the US, and noted that often....Americans ended up with the test and recommendation for the hospital....too late. That they were already near death's door, and that wasn't the case in Germany where they noted your secondary conditions, and got you into the ventilator system early on.
2. Speech by the Health Minister this morning: 1.7 million tests have been conducted to this point (it should be pointed out that if you are infected....you only come off the list if a second, possibly third test are used on you to confirm you are well). So the test numbers aren't what you think they are.
He says technically....they can do up to around 700,000 tests per week....but the average is 350k a week right now.
The reproduction number is currently .7-per person now. Awful low.
Contained in this speech....a hype by the head of the German Drug Administration....that results from a medical study over 'treatment' won't be completed until mid-July.
The fail-pass rates on the virus tests? He says that the failure-rate (meaning you have the virus) is around 10-percent. Curiously, he admitted that the rate hasn't changed much over the whole period.
When asked about mandating the mask (full-time)....he avoids that discussion.
When asked if the health system and hospitals have been overwhelmed.....he say no, there no such indications.
3. The limit of 800-square meter rule being used across the country for opening of stores? Well....NO. NRW wrote up a waiver, and stores in the region are applying the waiver to open up. Ikea is one such example.
4. German postal system is admitting huge business operations over the past month, with a lot of products ordered online.
5. The chatter about Americans dying at a higher rate while on the ventilator system, compared to the Germans? Well....one German doctor looked at the way that the system works in the US, and noted that often....Americans ended up with the test and recommendation for the hospital....too late. That they were already near death's door, and that wasn't the case in Germany where they noted your secondary conditions, and got you into the ventilator system early on.
Thursday, April 16, 2020
Picture Story
Around a week ago, there was this picture shot by a HR (Hessen public TV network) reporter.
The Health Minister (Spahn) and around five associates (the Hessen Premier-President was one of the guests) had arrived at a Giessen hospital....to visit with doctors treating virus folks, look at priorities and get opinions. They met at the ground floor, and entered an elevator (it was your typical German hospital elevator....big enough for 15 people). Crowded into the elevator with them....at least four medical staff.
So the picture is taken of this tight space.....11 people....all wearing masks, and the suggestion is.....a bad hygiene situation.
This image has been blasted around Germany for a week now, and everyone has focused on this.
The police? They've actually received 7 lodged complaints that violations of good order occurred with the 11 on one elevator.
Are there elevator 'bans'? No....not exactly. No one has said that a elevator is limited to the 1.5 meter distance rule.
A fine? Well....the complaints and police report will go to some judge. Then he has to decide if all 11 violated some rule, and if the max fine (5,000 Euro) is warranted. I have my doubts that it might go to that level. They might get a fine of 50 Euro just to assure the public that they were all 'bad-boys'.
The Health Minister (Spahn) and around five associates (the Hessen Premier-President was one of the guests) had arrived at a Giessen hospital....to visit with doctors treating virus folks, look at priorities and get opinions. They met at the ground floor, and entered an elevator (it was your typical German hospital elevator....big enough for 15 people). Crowded into the elevator with them....at least four medical staff.
So the picture is taken of this tight space.....11 people....all wearing masks, and the suggestion is.....a bad hygiene situation.
This image has been blasted around Germany for a week now, and everyone has focused on this.
The police? They've actually received 7 lodged complaints that violations of good order occurred with the 11 on one elevator.
Are there elevator 'bans'? No....not exactly. No one has said that a elevator is limited to the 1.5 meter distance rule.
A fine? Well....the complaints and police report will go to some judge. Then he has to decide if all 11 violated some rule, and if the max fine (5,000 Euro) is warranted. I have my doubts that it might go to that level. They might get a fine of 50 Euro just to assure the public that they were all 'bad-boys'.
This 'Wuhan' Syndrome
There is a new phrase being thrown around in Germany, with the 'Wuhan' Syndrome.
Because of less contact and human interaction....Germans are getting stressed out.
So there is a psychological problem starting to develop. You toss in exhaustion (dealing with your kids full-time at home, worries over your job and bills adding up, and lack of a summer vacation), and you have a five star issue brewing.
With the constant barrage of news and virus-hype, then you fight off your nervousness and fears.
You worry about your health, the older generation around you, and the economy.
Before all of this, you had various recreational things (bowling, soccer, tennis, etc) to keep you fit and active. Now? It's pretty limited.
At the end of this path.....then you deal with sleep interruptions.
How many Germans affected? Unknown. But if this stretches on into the fall....I might suggest a quarter of the population needing some type of help.
Because of less contact and human interaction....Germans are getting stressed out.
So there is a psychological problem starting to develop. You toss in exhaustion (dealing with your kids full-time at home, worries over your job and bills adding up, and lack of a summer vacation), and you have a five star issue brewing.
With the constant barrage of news and virus-hype, then you fight off your nervousness and fears.
You worry about your health, the older generation around you, and the economy.
Before all of this, you had various recreational things (bowling, soccer, tennis, etc) to keep you fit and active. Now? It's pretty limited.
At the end of this path.....then you deal with sleep interruptions.
How many Germans affected? Unknown. But if this stretches on into the fall....I might suggest a quarter of the population needing some type of help.
Assessing Leadership
The German leadership 'faces' that you normally now see are:
1. Bavarian Premier-President Soder (CSU)
2. German Minister of Labor Heil (SPD)
3. German Minister of Finance/Vice Chancellor Scholz (SPD)
4. German Minister of Agriculture Klockner (CDU)
5. German Minister of the Economy Altmaier (CDU)
6. NRW Premier-President Laschet (CDU)
7. Baden-Wurettemberg Premier-President Kretschmann (Green Party)
8. Health Minister Spahn (CDU)
You will notice....I didn't list Chancellor Merkel. First, she never does the one-on-one interviews.....but she will appear on rare occasions for the full scale press conferences. Second, other than getting people to a decision process and getting two groups to agree....that's been her only real contribution other than pep-talks.
These are the political figures that you will see almost daily....chatting on the crisis and impacts. Even in one-on-one journalistic interviews with hard questions thrown....most of this group has performed well (especially Spahn as the Health Minister).
What you generally see from polls now is that both the CDU and SPD have bumped up on public numbers, and both look really great now for the 2021 national election.
1. Bavarian Premier-President Soder (CSU)
2. German Minister of Labor Heil (SPD)
3. German Minister of Finance/Vice Chancellor Scholz (SPD)
4. German Minister of Agriculture Klockner (CDU)
5. German Minister of the Economy Altmaier (CDU)
6. NRW Premier-President Laschet (CDU)
7. Baden-Wurettemberg Premier-President Kretschmann (Green Party)
8. Health Minister Spahn (CDU)
You will notice....I didn't list Chancellor Merkel. First, she never does the one-on-one interviews.....but she will appear on rare occasions for the full scale press conferences. Second, other than getting people to a decision process and getting two groups to agree....that's been her only real contribution other than pep-talks.
These are the political figures that you will see almost daily....chatting on the crisis and impacts. Even in one-on-one journalistic interviews with hard questions thrown....most of this group has performed well (especially Spahn as the Health Minister).
What you generally see from polls now is that both the CDU and SPD have bumped up on public numbers, and both look really great now for the 2021 national election.
The 800 Square Meter Question
After the Chancellor's message yesterday....the big question came up with people....why did it matter about 800 square meters (roughly 8,600 sq ft) on keeping a business closed, or reopening it? If you are 800 or less.....you can reopen. If you are 800 or more.....you are still on the forbidden to open deal.
Typically affected? Most all electronic shops, and the clothing stores.
Why 800? No one can state a clear purpose on this. You could have poor hygiene in a 100 square meter shop, or you could have great hygiene in such a shop.
Furniture shops affected? To a huge degree.
Bau market stores (the hardware stores)? They were already deemed essential....like the grocery and drug stores.
Nothing about this makes much sense. Affect on jobs? I'd take a guess that 10 to 15 percent of most workers are affected by this limit.
A change coming shortly? I would take a guess that in two weeks....this will be the next ban to drop.
Typically affected? Most all electronic shops, and the clothing stores.
Why 800? No one can state a clear purpose on this. You could have poor hygiene in a 100 square meter shop, or you could have great hygiene in such a shop.
Furniture shops affected? To a huge degree.
Bau market stores (the hardware stores)? They were already deemed essential....like the grocery and drug stores.
Nothing about this makes much sense. Affect on jobs? I'd take a guess that 10 to 15 percent of most workers are affected by this limit.
A change coming shortly? I would take a guess that in two weeks....this will be the next ban to drop.
Wednesday, April 15, 2020
Germany and the Coronavirus: 16 April 2020
1. Deaths: 3,552 Infections: 131,410 (Focus numbers). In general, the recovery numbers are now about half of the infection numbers.
2. Reporting indicates in the past couple of days....the infection rate has 'soared'.
3. The state of Bavaria is now approaching 1,000 deaths since day one.
4. The topic of the Oktoberfest came up yesterday. The Premier President for Bavaria said in a blunt way that he doesn't expect it to occur this year.
5. Amazon in France has shut down their operation (by court order).
6. Large events (concerts, soccer games, etc) are forbidden until the very end of August.
7. The list of still-closed places? Restaurants, pubs, cafes and bars. If you serve take-out....that's still OK. Disco operations are on the list. Theaters, opera halls, concert halls, and museums are on the list.
Amusement parks are on the list.....as are casinos, betting shops, brothels, bowling alley operations, pools, and gyms. Finally, all playgrounds are forbidden to open.
8. These Germany company 'bonus' checks for extra work or extra-compensation....being tax free? Yes. The way that the law was crafted.....as long as the bonus is given between 1 March and 31 December of 2020....it's tax-free and nothing is taken for social retirement.
9. Death-count in my region of Wiesbaden? We are up to nine folks.....one was under the age of 65, the rest over. All appear to have secondary conditions contributing. The population count for the city? 285,000.
10. The biggest question at the moment? Public access on Monday will bump up because of people going back to work. If you ride the bus or train....you have to wear a mask. Presently, it's near impossible to find a shop carrying masks for sale. I suspect a lot of home-made masks will be the 'norm'.
2. Reporting indicates in the past couple of days....the infection rate has 'soared'.
3. The state of Bavaria is now approaching 1,000 deaths since day one.
4. The topic of the Oktoberfest came up yesterday. The Premier President for Bavaria said in a blunt way that he doesn't expect it to occur this year.
5. Amazon in France has shut down their operation (by court order).
6. Large events (concerts, soccer games, etc) are forbidden until the very end of August.
7. The list of still-closed places? Restaurants, pubs, cafes and bars. If you serve take-out....that's still OK. Disco operations are on the list. Theaters, opera halls, concert halls, and museums are on the list.
Amusement parks are on the list.....as are casinos, betting shops, brothels, bowling alley operations, pools, and gyms. Finally, all playgrounds are forbidden to open.
8. These Germany company 'bonus' checks for extra work or extra-compensation....being tax free? Yes. The way that the law was crafted.....as long as the bonus is given between 1 March and 31 December of 2020....it's tax-free and nothing is taken for social retirement.
9. Death-count in my region of Wiesbaden? We are up to nine folks.....one was under the age of 65, the rest over. All appear to have secondary conditions contributing. The population count for the city? 285,000.
10. The biggest question at the moment? Public access on Monday will bump up because of people going back to work. If you ride the bus or train....you have to wear a mask. Presently, it's near impossible to find a shop carrying masks for sale. I suspect a lot of home-made masks will be the 'norm'.
What the Chancellor Says
Ok, the cards are finally on the table for the virus bans to be lifted.
1. Starting this Monday (20th), shops with a sales area of up to 800 square meters can be open, with 'strict' hygiene requirements. This wasn't absolutely clear but the word implies that masks will be a mandatory thing in public.
2. Car dealers, bike dealers and bookstores can open regardless of their size.
3. Barbershops and hairdressers will open on the 4th of May (with conditions required).
4. Traveling on a train or bus? You must have a mask.
5. Cafes, bars and restaurants? STILL closed, and no dates discussed.
6. Schools can gradually open after 4 May.
People happy with this? No. The major electronic shops are all over 800 square meters.....so they are still shutdown. Airports and hotels? Nothing mentioned.
Where will the millions of masks come from? Unknown. I would make a guess in my village of 4,000.....probably less than a quarter of them presently have masks (I bought mine in mid-March).
I think the hope is that this was the first step, and in two weeks.....additional steps occur. A lot of folks were hoping on bars and pubs opening up.
1. Starting this Monday (20th), shops with a sales area of up to 800 square meters can be open, with 'strict' hygiene requirements. This wasn't absolutely clear but the word implies that masks will be a mandatory thing in public.
2. Car dealers, bike dealers and bookstores can open regardless of their size.
3. Barbershops and hairdressers will open on the 4th of May (with conditions required).
4. Traveling on a train or bus? You must have a mask.
5. Cafes, bars and restaurants? STILL closed, and no dates discussed.
6. Schools can gradually open after 4 May.
People happy with this? No. The major electronic shops are all over 800 square meters.....so they are still shutdown. Airports and hotels? Nothing mentioned.
Where will the millions of masks come from? Unknown. I would make a guess in my village of 4,000.....probably less than a quarter of them presently have masks (I bought mine in mid-March).
I think the hope is that this was the first step, and in two weeks.....additional steps occur. A lot of folks were hoping on bars and pubs opening up.
Frankfurt Airport
If you look at the numbers....it's mostly at a shut-down stage.
For the whole of the past week (seven days)....46,000 passengers walked through the airport. This time last year.....in a normal average single day, it would have been near 193,000.
The runways? Two are being used for 'parking-space' for unused aircraft, with one runway under renovation, and only one actual runway being used presently.
Employees actually working? Presently, only 4,000 are showing up for work....with almost 18,000 on short-time or furlough type situations.
Odds of anything changing in April or May? Pretty much a zero situation. I can imagine things picking up in June/July timeframe. But the bulk of the 18,000 people 'off' right now.....will likely continue through all of the summer period.
For the whole of the past week (seven days)....46,000 passengers walked through the airport. This time last year.....in a normal average single day, it would have been near 193,000.
The runways? Two are being used for 'parking-space' for unused aircraft, with one runway under renovation, and only one actual runway being used presently.
Employees actually working? Presently, only 4,000 are showing up for work....with almost 18,000 on short-time or furlough type situations.
Odds of anything changing in April or May? Pretty much a zero situation. I can imagine things picking up in June/July timeframe. But the bulk of the 18,000 people 'off' right now.....will likely continue through all of the summer period.
ISIS Thugs Arrested?
Well....yeah.
This came up in regional news today via BR (Bavarian public TV).
So to the facts.....German police came and arrested four guys for suspected ISIS attack planning. The four guys from Germany? No....that's an odd part to the story, they are from Tajikistan.
The four were arrested up in North Rhine Westphalia (NRW).
The procurement of ammo and guns? Well....they'd already been successful at that part of the operation.
Again, planning efforts by these thugs reached a certain level where it's obvious they were making mistakes and being observed by the German police.
This came up in regional news today via BR (Bavarian public TV).
So to the facts.....German police came and arrested four guys for suspected ISIS attack planning. The four guys from Germany? No....that's an odd part to the story, they are from Tajikistan.
The four were arrested up in North Rhine Westphalia (NRW).
The procurement of ammo and guns? Well....they'd already been successful at that part of the operation.
Again, planning efforts by these thugs reached a certain level where it's obvious they were making mistakes and being observed by the German police.
Germany and the Coronavirus: 15 April 2020
1. Deaths: 3,218. Infections: 128,514 (Focus numbers)
2. All eyes in Germany are turned toward this meeting today of the Chancellor and the sixteen Premier-Presidents (governors). Merkel says various options are on the table to reopen things, but there has to be complete agreement....she doesn't want 8 states going one way and 8 going the other way.
The general suggestion is that restaurants, cafes and pubs will open this weekend. Beyond that.....things are 'iffy'. Some states are opening discussing the idea of opening schools and kindergartens.
The travel ban? Most don't see it changing in April, and it'll go into mid-May.
The soccer games? There's a strong suggestion that 'ghost' games will occur shortly (no fans allowed into the stadiums).
3. Presently, the RKI folks say 68,000 Germans have recovered from the virus.
4. That Heidelberg lawyer who threw a court case against limiting rights during this virus-period....that reached the German Constitutional Court and was thrown out? Well....it's been about three weeks, and there's this interesting development. About a week after the Court threw the case out.....police show up at this lady's door, and escort her to a mental clinic for a mandatory 'check-in'. Basically, someone found a judge to sign the papers to suggest that she's unstable and requires 'help'.
The case against her stability? Nothing has been put into the public eye over this and there's no way to suggest one way or another.
5. Finally, there are experts surveying how this started, and they've come to agree that it most likely did not start up in a bio-weapons lab in Wuhan. However, they are now going to the idea that a regular lab (research type) was handling this bat-virus, and it simply got out of the lab. The problem is....China doesn't want to discuss any of this, and you simply have to wonder about the start-up.
2. All eyes in Germany are turned toward this meeting today of the Chancellor and the sixteen Premier-Presidents (governors). Merkel says various options are on the table to reopen things, but there has to be complete agreement....she doesn't want 8 states going one way and 8 going the other way.
The general suggestion is that restaurants, cafes and pubs will open this weekend. Beyond that.....things are 'iffy'. Some states are opening discussing the idea of opening schools and kindergartens.
The travel ban? Most don't see it changing in April, and it'll go into mid-May.
The soccer games? There's a strong suggestion that 'ghost' games will occur shortly (no fans allowed into the stadiums).
3. Presently, the RKI folks say 68,000 Germans have recovered from the virus.
4. That Heidelberg lawyer who threw a court case against limiting rights during this virus-period....that reached the German Constitutional Court and was thrown out? Well....it's been about three weeks, and there's this interesting development. About a week after the Court threw the case out.....police show up at this lady's door, and escort her to a mental clinic for a mandatory 'check-in'. Basically, someone found a judge to sign the papers to suggest that she's unstable and requires 'help'.
The case against her stability? Nothing has been put into the public eye over this and there's no way to suggest one way or another.
5. Finally, there are experts surveying how this started, and they've come to agree that it most likely did not start up in a bio-weapons lab in Wuhan. However, they are now going to the idea that a regular lab (research type) was handling this bat-virus, and it simply got out of the lab. The problem is....China doesn't want to discuss any of this, and you simply have to wonder about the start-up.
Tuesday, April 14, 2020
Germany and the Coronavirus: 14 April 2020
1. Deaths: 2,994 Infections: 126,608 (Focus numbers). Bremen, the city-state, is at the bottom of the list for infections with 485 (population: 547,000)
2. The airline Condor and their 'deal'? Gone. The Polish airline LOT had the deal worked out about six months ago with a few details to be done.....but over the weekend, they said that the virus period had soured all of the travel plans they had, and Condor is left again for someone to pick up. Right now? For the remainder of 2020.....I see no one interested in the German airline.
3. The Bavarian state police came out in force over the weekend, conducting 'audits' of restaurants, pubs and bars....citing roughly 10,000 customers or owners.
4. This anticipated Wednesday meeting between the Premier Presidents and the Chancellor will be a big deal toward reopening stores and business operations. Nothing is certain, and it's likely to be a list of things that can open by next weekend, and a list of things requiring two or three months.
2. The airline Condor and their 'deal'? Gone. The Polish airline LOT had the deal worked out about six months ago with a few details to be done.....but over the weekend, they said that the virus period had soured all of the travel plans they had, and Condor is left again for someone to pick up. Right now? For the remainder of 2020.....I see no one interested in the German airline.
3. The Bavarian state police came out in force over the weekend, conducting 'audits' of restaurants, pubs and bars....citing roughly 10,000 customers or owners.
4. This anticipated Wednesday meeting between the Premier Presidents and the Chancellor will be a big deal toward reopening stores and business operations. Nothing is certain, and it's likely to be a list of things that can open by next weekend, and a list of things requiring two or three months.
Monday, April 13, 2020
Germany and the Coronavirus: 13 April 2020
1. Deaths: 2.867. Infections: 124,242 (N-TV numbers). Bavaria leads the way with 33,000 of the infections. Mecklenburg (the state) has the least number of deaths at 11.
2. RKI folks (the experts in Germany at virus-control) say that the trend-line is now going downward. Third day in a row with the trend.
3. The Chancellor is supposed to have a meeting on Wednesday with the state Premier-Presidents (all sixteen) and perhaps discuss dumping some bans. My humble view is that restaurants, pubs and cafes will open by the upcoming weekend, and workplace bans will be lessen (with masks required) by early next week. Don't count on the border openings or airport bans to be lessen until mid-May.
4. Polling suggests that around 80-percent of Germans are going absolutely by the rules put into place. Roughly 20-percent of Germans are violating various (if not all) of the rules. Age plays into this....the younger the participant in the poll.....the more willing to violate the rules.
2. RKI folks (the experts in Germany at virus-control) say that the trend-line is now going downward. Third day in a row with the trend.
3. The Chancellor is supposed to have a meeting on Wednesday with the state Premier-Presidents (all sixteen) and perhaps discuss dumping some bans. My humble view is that restaurants, pubs and cafes will open by the upcoming weekend, and workplace bans will be lessen (with masks required) by early next week. Don't count on the border openings or airport bans to be lessen until mid-May.
4. Polling suggests that around 80-percent of Germans are going absolutely by the rules put into place. Roughly 20-percent of Germans are violating various (if not all) of the rules. Age plays into this....the younger the participant in the poll.....the more willing to violate the rules.
Sunday, April 12, 2020
Just Humble Observations I Hand Out
1. Is the virus in Germany in decline?
If you glean the data....the numbers say the decline is there and it'll be a very noticeable thing over the next week.
Just in the area where I live....500,000 in the metro Mainz-Wiesbaden area....we are barely at the 500 to 600 level on infections (half of them have concluded the infection) and stand at around a dozen deaths (most all near or above the age of seventy).
2. Are Germans getting fed-up with the ban business?
In simple terms, yes. Weather has turned great over the past ten days, and a majority of people are breaking the rules in various ways.
The preoccupation of the public networks (ARD and ZDF, along with the sub-networks) has reached a level where general public interest is in decline.
3. Are certain businesses set to reopen and go 'max-turbo'?
Restaurants, bars and cafes....yes. Hotels and the travel business....no, and you might be looking at serious damage done to their business model. Another loser is the kino (theater operations).
4. Did the border closures really screw the farming 'belt' of Germany?
Well.....Romanian farm-workers (in the tens of thousands) come each spring and play a key role. The border closures screwed that in a royal way. Flying in the workers? That added an extra cost. You will notice that at the groceries in May.
5. Did the crisis period change the political spectrum?
Merkel's crew (the CDU-CSU) and the coalition partner (SPD) went up around 12-to-15 points together. The Greens and AfD lost the same amount. All of the key figures in the cabinet have looked positive and it would be great if an election were held right now.
The chief guy who now looks like the insider to the Chancellor job? CSU's Bavarian Premier-President Soder.
6. Older generation harder hit?
At various of points, the data talks to German people over age 65 (especially over age 75) are the chief group affected (in terms of deaths).
7. German journalists hyped up on anti-Trump chatter during the crisis?
Some public TV folks are in that group and the Spiegel print-media crowd are all chatty over deaths in NY City. Most middle-class/working-class Germans aren't really into the chatter....they'd prefer to hear about their own situation, or their own recovery.
8. Did the ski resort in Austria and the regional Fasching events 'jump-start' the whole thing in Germany?
Presently, a real government investigation in Austria is going on and looks like some folks might be in serious trouble. Without those two events.....the rate of infection would be half or less of what you see today.
9. Is tourism in Germany crapped-out for all of 2020?
Yep. You won't see out-of-country folks flying in or staying at 4-star or 5-star hotels. That really suggests a long-term problem.
10. Did the Health Minister (Spahn, CDU) make a difference?
It's surprising how well he handled the pressure and kept showing up a dozen times a day for interviews and simply didn't screw up.
If you glean the data....the numbers say the decline is there and it'll be a very noticeable thing over the next week.
Just in the area where I live....500,000 in the metro Mainz-Wiesbaden area....we are barely at the 500 to 600 level on infections (half of them have concluded the infection) and stand at around a dozen deaths (most all near or above the age of seventy).
2. Are Germans getting fed-up with the ban business?
In simple terms, yes. Weather has turned great over the past ten days, and a majority of people are breaking the rules in various ways.
The preoccupation of the public networks (ARD and ZDF, along with the sub-networks) has reached a level where general public interest is in decline.
3. Are certain businesses set to reopen and go 'max-turbo'?
Restaurants, bars and cafes....yes. Hotels and the travel business....no, and you might be looking at serious damage done to their business model. Another loser is the kino (theater operations).
4. Did the border closures really screw the farming 'belt' of Germany?
Well.....Romanian farm-workers (in the tens of thousands) come each spring and play a key role. The border closures screwed that in a royal way. Flying in the workers? That added an extra cost. You will notice that at the groceries in May.
5. Did the crisis period change the political spectrum?
Merkel's crew (the CDU-CSU) and the coalition partner (SPD) went up around 12-to-15 points together. The Greens and AfD lost the same amount. All of the key figures in the cabinet have looked positive and it would be great if an election were held right now.
The chief guy who now looks like the insider to the Chancellor job? CSU's Bavarian Premier-President Soder.
6. Older generation harder hit?
At various of points, the data talks to German people over age 65 (especially over age 75) are the chief group affected (in terms of deaths).
7. German journalists hyped up on anti-Trump chatter during the crisis?
Some public TV folks are in that group and the Spiegel print-media crowd are all chatty over deaths in NY City. Most middle-class/working-class Germans aren't really into the chatter....they'd prefer to hear about their own situation, or their own recovery.
8. Did the ski resort in Austria and the regional Fasching events 'jump-start' the whole thing in Germany?
Presently, a real government investigation in Austria is going on and looks like some folks might be in serious trouble. Without those two events.....the rate of infection would be half or less of what you see today.
9. Is tourism in Germany crapped-out for all of 2020?
Yep. You won't see out-of-country folks flying in or staying at 4-star or 5-star hotels. That really suggests a long-term problem.
10. Did the Health Minister (Spahn, CDU) make a difference?
It's surprising how well he handled the pressure and kept showing up a dozen times a day for interviews and simply didn't screw up.
Germany and the Coronavirus: 12 April 2020
1. Deaths: 2,678. Infections: 121,324 (Focus numbers). I should add that in my region of Mainz/Wiesbaden (population of nearly 500,000).....the death count is still less than a dozen (all of which were over the age of 65, and most were over the age of 80).
2. My local state of Hessen came up with new rules.....if you enter the state and have been 'out' of the country (doesn't matter where), you have to call up your local health department, report yourself (address and name), and then go into a 14-day self-quarantine deal. Failure to report? A hefty fine.
Are there a number of folks in this travel situation? No. There are some folks finally getting out of Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa.....so they are the ones who are chiefly affected and forced into this deal.
3. Several German states are talking of an 'exit' strategy.....basically allowing people to go back to work. The idea is attached to the idea that everyone in public will wear masks. The idea of all bans ending shortly? No....forget about that idea at both the state and federal level.
4. The police in Frankfurt reported having to confront several groups yesterday....which used violence against the police. The police are supposed to break up 'groups' and force people to go by the social bans. Part of this involved a chase, which led back to an apartment.....which the police found later to have swords and various 'weapons' (this got the young lads into even more trouble).
5. President Steinmeier appeared on TV last night with a 'pep-talk'. He wanted to thank Germans for their 'help', and pleaded with them to continue on their effort.
6. German study is suggesting that smoking is a serious contributing factor to your problems with the virus.
7. People trying to plan a summer vacation? The harsh reality is that around three-quarters of German society usually go off for a week or two each summer. Planning now? Big zero, but there is talk of some Germans trying to find hotels or resorts within Germany. Right now.....hotels are a shut-down operation. Camping? That might be the only option.
8. Three German states carrying the bulk of infections and deaths? Yes, Bavaria, NRW, and Baden-Wuerttemberg.....going to like 80-percent of the totals in both categories. Infections and deaths being barely noted in the rural eastern states.
9. Merkel's anticipated speech? Lot of chatter, no facts over what she might say. What I anticipate is that a minimum of three German states will lessen the ban business by Friday of the coming week. Most rules will stay up but I think that pubs and restaurants will be open by next weekend.
2. My local state of Hessen came up with new rules.....if you enter the state and have been 'out' of the country (doesn't matter where), you have to call up your local health department, report yourself (address and name), and then go into a 14-day self-quarantine deal. Failure to report? A hefty fine.
Are there a number of folks in this travel situation? No. There are some folks finally getting out of Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa.....so they are the ones who are chiefly affected and forced into this deal.
3. Several German states are talking of an 'exit' strategy.....basically allowing people to go back to work. The idea is attached to the idea that everyone in public will wear masks. The idea of all bans ending shortly? No....forget about that idea at both the state and federal level.
4. The police in Frankfurt reported having to confront several groups yesterday....which used violence against the police. The police are supposed to break up 'groups' and force people to go by the social bans. Part of this involved a chase, which led back to an apartment.....which the police found later to have swords and various 'weapons' (this got the young lads into even more trouble).
5. President Steinmeier appeared on TV last night with a 'pep-talk'. He wanted to thank Germans for their 'help', and pleaded with them to continue on their effort.
6. German study is suggesting that smoking is a serious contributing factor to your problems with the virus.
7. People trying to plan a summer vacation? The harsh reality is that around three-quarters of German society usually go off for a week or two each summer. Planning now? Big zero, but there is talk of some Germans trying to find hotels or resorts within Germany. Right now.....hotels are a shut-down operation. Camping? That might be the only option.
8. Three German states carrying the bulk of infections and deaths? Yes, Bavaria, NRW, and Baden-Wuerttemberg.....going to like 80-percent of the totals in both categories. Infections and deaths being barely noted in the rural eastern states.
9. Merkel's anticipated speech? Lot of chatter, no facts over what she might say. What I anticipate is that a minimum of three German states will lessen the ban business by Friday of the coming week. Most rules will stay up but I think that pubs and restaurants will be open by next weekend.
Saturday, April 11, 2020
Germany and the Coronavirus: 11 April 2020
1. Deaths: 2,071 Infected: 108.193 (Focus numbers).
2 There's a decent Focus story which talks over a US study.....pollution affecting the rate of extreme cases of the virus. Perhaps explaining more of the Wuhan problem? Maybe, it is highly noted for polluted air.
3. N-TV is reporting that if you smoke.....German studies can now conclude that your risk of infection is increased.
4. German high court did come back and agree.....cities and states can ban church services.
5. German cities are now admitting financial losses on expected revenue, and looking toward the states and federal government to make up for the lost money.
6. There's a study out of Austria which basically says.....for every guy tested and deemed 'positive' on the virus.....there might be three other individuals having some 'mild'symptoms and just never go to the doctor or get tested....but they have the milder version of Corona. This would cause you to pause and ponder over the affect to the general public.
7. I sat and watched a news segment last night. Older family members of a family had lost a senior-citizen member of the family. After conferring with the German funeral home folks, the 'arrangement' had to be done in a particular way.
They could arrange for the rental of the 'chapel' at the graveyard....that was not the problem. But having guests arrive and sit in the chapel was a 'no-go'. So they went for a smaller funeral with limited guests, with around 20 seats set up outside of the chapel (1.5 meters away from each other).
The group then stood about 20 meters away from the burial site....in groups in a safe distancing pattern. As one spoke of the arrangements....'you do what you can do'.
2 There's a decent Focus story which talks over a US study.....pollution affecting the rate of extreme cases of the virus. Perhaps explaining more of the Wuhan problem? Maybe, it is highly noted for polluted air.
3. N-TV is reporting that if you smoke.....German studies can now conclude that your risk of infection is increased.
4. German high court did come back and agree.....cities and states can ban church services.
5. German cities are now admitting financial losses on expected revenue, and looking toward the states and federal government to make up for the lost money.
6. There's a study out of Austria which basically says.....for every guy tested and deemed 'positive' on the virus.....there might be three other individuals having some 'mild'symptoms and just never go to the doctor or get tested....but they have the milder version of Corona. This would cause you to pause and ponder over the affect to the general public.
7. I sat and watched a news segment last night. Older family members of a family had lost a senior-citizen member of the family. After conferring with the German funeral home folks, the 'arrangement' had to be done in a particular way.
They could arrange for the rental of the 'chapel' at the graveyard....that was not the problem. But having guests arrive and sit in the chapel was a 'no-go'. So they went for a smaller funeral with limited guests, with around 20 seats set up outside of the chapel (1.5 meters away from each other).
The group then stood about 20 meters away from the burial site....in groups in a safe distancing pattern. As one spoke of the arrangements....'you do what you can do'.
Friday, April 10, 2020
Italian Study Chatter
A short piece off Focus this afternoon....features an interesting detail on Coronavirus deaths. Some science folks examined the health of almost a thousand Italians who passed away who were under the age of 65.
They could only find .7-percent of the thousand folks who did NOT have a previous health condition. The VAST majority? These were people under age 65 with "high blood pressure, cardiovascular disease, asthma or lung disease".
Another report indicates that from the Germans who had Coronavirus....over the age of 65, the death ratio was a majority of males (65-percent). UNDER 65 years old? That death ratio flipped.....to 80-percent males. The numbers are similar to everything the Italians saw in their country. Some might go and suggest that males live a more unhealthy lifestyle, than women (women would suggest that).
They could only find .7-percent of the thousand folks who did NOT have a previous health condition. The VAST majority? These were people under age 65 with "high blood pressure, cardiovascular disease, asthma or lung disease".
Another report indicates that from the Germans who had Coronavirus....over the age of 65, the death ratio was a majority of males (65-percent). UNDER 65 years old? That death ratio flipped.....to 80-percent males. The numbers are similar to everything the Italians saw in their country. Some might go and suggest that males live a more unhealthy lifestyle, than women (women would suggest that).
Political Chatter
A major political poll was done by YouGov for the news folks in Germany (Focus).....over the Chancellor business. So what you should take away from this effort?
1. Three out of ten Germans were asked and responded.....they wouldn't have a problem with Merkel running once again (in the fall 2021 election). Five out of ten.....say 'no, we've had enough of Merkel'.
2. The guy who has the lead right now? The Bavarian CSU guy....Markus Soder, with 27-percent. Way behind is Merz (six months ago, he would have led in the country) at 12-percent. The chief competitor against Merz from that period (Rottgen)? He's fallen to around 3-percent, and I don't see him coming back. There hasn't been a single public appearance in four weeks with him.
Does it really matter? No, we are 17 months away. But it's a strong indicator that no SPD candidate is going to emerge and challenge the CDU at the level required. The Green Party guy (Habeck)....not mentioned.
1. Three out of ten Germans were asked and responded.....they wouldn't have a problem with Merkel running once again (in the fall 2021 election). Five out of ten.....say 'no, we've had enough of Merkel'.
2. The guy who has the lead right now? The Bavarian CSU guy....Markus Soder, with 27-percent. Way behind is Merz (six months ago, he would have led in the country) at 12-percent. The chief competitor against Merz from that period (Rottgen)? He's fallen to around 3-percent, and I don't see him coming back. There hasn't been a single public appearance in four weeks with him.
Does it really matter? No, we are 17 months away. But it's a strong indicator that no SPD candidate is going to emerge and challenge the CDU at the level required. The Green Party guy (Habeck)....not mentioned.
The 14 September 1930 German National Election
There are several interesting pieces to this one particular election, which in the end.....leads onto the Nazi Party and Hitler.
First, this is a election which should NOT have occurred until spring of 1932 (the last regular election was May 1928, and normally....German national elections are on a four-year cycle).
But this issue of the Wall Street stumble in 1929, and the various economic woes that came upon Germany.....triggered a response by the Chancellor and his coalition. Hermann Mueller (SPD Party) was the Chancellor, and chaos occurred throughout the last month or two of 1929, and into early part of 1930.
Around the last week of March (1930)....the coalition fell apart. The President of Germany at the time....Hindenburg.....went to a simple solution, appointing a Centre Party figure (Heinrich Bruning) as a Chancellor....with the government to be basically a minority government.
Hint: minority government can function but if you get into a voting situation.....they don't typically have the votes to pass critical measures.
This is precisely what happens in the spring of 1930.
Bruning had the emergency measures package ready to go, and the majority of the Bundestag said 'no'.....with Bruning using emergency powers on his part to make the measures exist. The rejection vote? Massive, with the SPD Party, the Nazis, and the Communists all voting against the measure.
This minority government lasted for around a hundred days. Then came the request by Bruning....to dissolve the mess, and have another fresh election.
On 14 September, the out-of-cycle election occurs.
Hitler's Nazi Party had broken off from the German National People's Party (1928 election) and was running on it's first national election. Result? Second place with 18-percent of the vote. The SPD cleared 25-percent and then ran into issues with the formation of the government. The partnership would end up with Hitler and his group.
One of the more interesting aspects of this election.....even with 18-percent of the vote.....there is only one state/district that had a majority of Nazi votes (East Prussia on the far northeast side of Germany). In virtually all other districts and states.....the Nazis managed a second or lesser place finish.
So the 1929 crash, and the out-of-cycle election....paving the way for the Nazi Party to surge in 1932? More or less.
First, this is a election which should NOT have occurred until spring of 1932 (the last regular election was May 1928, and normally....German national elections are on a four-year cycle).
But this issue of the Wall Street stumble in 1929, and the various economic woes that came upon Germany.....triggered a response by the Chancellor and his coalition. Hermann Mueller (SPD Party) was the Chancellor, and chaos occurred throughout the last month or two of 1929, and into early part of 1930.
Around the last week of March (1930)....the coalition fell apart. The President of Germany at the time....Hindenburg.....went to a simple solution, appointing a Centre Party figure (Heinrich Bruning) as a Chancellor....with the government to be basically a minority government.
Hint: minority government can function but if you get into a voting situation.....they don't typically have the votes to pass critical measures.
This is precisely what happens in the spring of 1930.
Bruning had the emergency measures package ready to go, and the majority of the Bundestag said 'no'.....with Bruning using emergency powers on his part to make the measures exist. The rejection vote? Massive, with the SPD Party, the Nazis, and the Communists all voting against the measure.
This minority government lasted for around a hundred days. Then came the request by Bruning....to dissolve the mess, and have another fresh election.
On 14 September, the out-of-cycle election occurs.
Hitler's Nazi Party had broken off from the German National People's Party (1928 election) and was running on it's first national election. Result? Second place with 18-percent of the vote. The SPD cleared 25-percent and then ran into issues with the formation of the government. The partnership would end up with Hitler and his group.
One of the more interesting aspects of this election.....even with 18-percent of the vote.....there is only one state/district that had a majority of Nazi votes (East Prussia on the far northeast side of Germany). In virtually all other districts and states.....the Nazis managed a second or lesser place finish.
So the 1929 crash, and the out-of-cycle election....paving the way for the Nazi Party to surge in 1932? More or less.
Germany and the Coronavirus: 10 April 2020
1. Dead: 2,292 Infected: 112,348 (Focus numbers).
2. The chief four products sought at German grocery operations? Flour, yeast, toilet paper, and pasta. I stood in one grocery this week, which at 3PM....did have a dozen packs of toilet-paper left....first time I've seen it on the shelf in a late day situation.
3. Protests in Germany have to be approved (some might laugh at this idea), but there are general procedures in every major German city, and you apply for your protest march. If you act in accordance with the rules, no one ever gets arrested.
Well....a protest application was applied in Munich, and the city said 'no'....not during the Coronavirus crisis. The group (the news people aren't discussing the type of protest) then took this to court.....all the way to the German 'high' court in Karlsruhe. The court stood up late yesterday and said the city has the right to prevent demonstrations/protests, and this is a legit 'no'.
4. Starting 16 April in Poland, if you out in public....you wear a mouth/nose covering. I expect the Germans (state by state) to move toward this rule as well.
5. Here in Hessen, there is the observation by emergency room personnel that the customer-rate has rapidly decreased....to the point that they are worried that people with heart-attack symptoms are saying 'no' to a trip to the emergency room, in fear of getting the virus there.
6. The rumor presently is that German professional soccer will reopen around the 9th of May. Fans allowed into the stadiums? Probably not. Continued path to bankruptcy? Well, thirteen clubs from the first and second league are now tied into a probable bankruptcy situation. Even clubs in the lesser leagues are discussing their financial situation. FCK out of Kaisersluatern is one of those with dire finances.
7. The one industry that I don't see coming back in 2020 (remainder of the year), is the travel industry (airlines, hotels, etc). Over the past week, if you watch German news nightly.....various hotel managers are talking over a dismal situation facing their 'empire'. One Bavarian manager showed his reservations listing for the summer months, which ought to have several thousand rooms rented out over the 90-day period, and it was basically a zero-sum situation.
Attached to the hotel industry, if you think about it.....various cooks and house-keepers.
2. The chief four products sought at German grocery operations? Flour, yeast, toilet paper, and pasta. I stood in one grocery this week, which at 3PM....did have a dozen packs of toilet-paper left....first time I've seen it on the shelf in a late day situation.
3. Protests in Germany have to be approved (some might laugh at this idea), but there are general procedures in every major German city, and you apply for your protest march. If you act in accordance with the rules, no one ever gets arrested.
Well....a protest application was applied in Munich, and the city said 'no'....not during the Coronavirus crisis. The group (the news people aren't discussing the type of protest) then took this to court.....all the way to the German 'high' court in Karlsruhe. The court stood up late yesterday and said the city has the right to prevent demonstrations/protests, and this is a legit 'no'.
4. Starting 16 April in Poland, if you out in public....you wear a mouth/nose covering. I expect the Germans (state by state) to move toward this rule as well.
5. Here in Hessen, there is the observation by emergency room personnel that the customer-rate has rapidly decreased....to the point that they are worried that people with heart-attack symptoms are saying 'no' to a trip to the emergency room, in fear of getting the virus there.
6. The rumor presently is that German professional soccer will reopen around the 9th of May. Fans allowed into the stadiums? Probably not. Continued path to bankruptcy? Well, thirteen clubs from the first and second league are now tied into a probable bankruptcy situation. Even clubs in the lesser leagues are discussing their financial situation. FCK out of Kaisersluatern is one of those with dire finances.
7. The one industry that I don't see coming back in 2020 (remainder of the year), is the travel industry (airlines, hotels, etc). Over the past week, if you watch German news nightly.....various hotel managers are talking over a dismal situation facing their 'empire'. One Bavarian manager showed his reservations listing for the summer months, which ought to have several thousand rooms rented out over the 90-day period, and it was basically a zero-sum situation.
Attached to the hotel industry, if you think about it.....various cooks and house-keepers.
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