Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Protest Chatter

Locally, in my metro area of Wiesbaden, we have twenty-odd protests per year.  This coming weekend....we will actually have two protests in one day (something that rarely ever occurs).

The first?   The BifF - Bikers for Freedom group will come up to protest discussions over motorcycle bans.  3k bikers are expected to show up Saturday for this group. 

The second?  BLM, Black Lives Matter.  In their case, they say around 1,500 will show up....roughly two hours after the BifF group.

The BifF matter?  There is some chatter going on about a Sunday and/or holiday ban for motorcycles.  No one is sure about where this Hessen chatter will go. 

What the Basic Pension Looks Like

The finishing touches are being done over the new 'basic' pension deal....which will be supported by Chancellor Merkel, and the coalition (CDU, CSU, and SPD).

What's in the package?  N-TV did a decent layout and I'll point to them for most of the details.

First, it doesn't matter if they pass it now....it won't start until 1 January of 2021.

Second, it's being arranged in layers....meaning the new people retiring will be the first to get the deal.  Those already retired....will have to wait (figure to around to the end of 2022).

Third, who gets it?  Well, based on the 'science' of this....1.3 million Germans, of which roughly 70-percent will be women.  Don't ask how they rigged this....it'd just invite long discussions that go nowhere.  You had to be a low-wage person most of your life, with 33 years of work....to fit into the 'deal'..

Within this period....if you raised kids, or did healthcare for your relatives....you get credit for a period of time.

Fourth, what's this add up to?  Right now....1.4 billion Euro.  Here's the thing to this topic....they can't take the money from the retirement fund.  It'd just deflate it rather quickly.  So they are taking it from general tax revenue.  A problem later because of the recession going on?  No one talks about that, or how the future will fund this whole thing.

Fifth, the amount for each?  If you are single....no matter what you did in life (cheap labor or average labor)....your take-home will be 1,250 Euro a month.  If you are married, 1,950 Euro a month.

Unfairness of this?  You could be standing in a room with your friend.  You went aggressive as an apprentice and most of your life as a transmission mechanic for the local Ford dealer.....with your pension near 2,000 Euro a month.  Your friend mostly did just minimum wage landscaping work, and their normal pension would be now near 1,300 Euro a month....but because of this deal, he's now given a 650 Euro bump up. 

Some Germans are going to be a bit testy and angry over the deal.  But here's the logical side of this....they've done the review, and it mostly bumps up women (widows) and they can state for a fact that 70-percent of the folks helped....are women. 

Bank Account Discussion

Years ago in Germany, most all banks ran accounts with no real cost factor (they might have mandated you needed to maintain x-amount of D-Marks in the account).

Currently, the Deutsche Bank has a fee deal....8.99 Euro per month.  Normally, it's one of those banks that I would advise people to step around, and look for lesser cost situations. 

Well...ARD (public TV, Channel One) brought this up today....with the Deutsche Bank.  They were taken to court. 

The accusation?  The 8.99 fee was unjust.

An amusing thing came out of the Federal Court of Justice today.  They said this fee was not qualified or just.

Yes, even a homeless guy should be able to have a 'free' account with the Deutsche Bank.

So this goes back about four years ago when laws were changed, and said that banks needed to offer a free basic account.  Deutsche Bank was sort of a holdout on this....saying that a fee of some type needed to be built into the system.  The court says 'no'.

What happens now?  I doubt if Deutsche Bank gives up on this, and they might try to come back to say each transaction requires x-amount.  It'll be challenged again in court. 

At some point in the future, I expect a cashless society proposal to come up and the government (maybe 20 years in the future) will pursue the idea of having everyone go digital.  That is going to open this discussion even further. 

Next Step of Mass Shooting at Rot am See

A few months ago, I essayed a piece over a mass shooting down in Baden-Wuerttemberg  (SW Germany), involving a young gentleman (age 27)and his family.

So the court episode has opened, and SWR did a fairly good assessment of day one.

To sum up the shooting....this guy pulled a pistol on his parents, two step-siblings, and an aunt/uncle.....shooting them all dead.  He is the one who called the police after the shootings, and surrendered himself.

Yesterday, court started up.  The young guy stood there and told the story, which I kinda admit....it's a bit weird.

He says his mother had always wanted a girl, and done various things to feminize him (suggesting female hormones, and severe criticism on a constant basis).  He didn't have any problem admitting guilt over shooting the mother....saying at some point, "I wanted to make sure she was dead". 

The pistol used?  Legally purchased.  He had gone to the classes and gotten the gun card. 

A nutcase?  Well....several news sources are hinting that a court assessment of his mental bearing has been done and will be presented.  Some suggest paranoid schizophrenia will be presented.

If the judge buys off on the schizophrenia?  He'll simply sign the paperwork and present the guy to some mental clinic for a lifetime of care, under strict guard. 

Five-star movie script?  At this point, I'd suggest that it's one of the weirdest murder stories from Germany over the past couple of decades. 

The article over at SWR is definitely worth a read.   

Coronavirus: 30 June 2020

Outbreaks or cluster-areas now the problem?  More or less.

This got brought up late yesterday....down in Starnberg (far to the south in Germany) a catering company has a number of employees who tested positive.  Focus reported on this....near 44 individuals associated with the company were affected.  Additionally, in the nearby area....another ten who were asylum seekers and housed in some community building.

So here's the curious thing about the catering company....they serve the largest hospital in Munich.  More tests coming?  No one says much about it but it would seem like you'd have to go and test every single patient and employee in the hospital.

Since day one of infections....we are at 194k individuals who've tested positive.  The newest additions to the list.....around 400 in one day.

As for deaths since day one, we are at 8,942.

This talk about the drug Remdesivir?  The treatment drug for the virus is marketed now at a cost of $390 per dose....figure x-number per day, and a five-day plan....it's up in the $2,500 to $3,000 range depending on who you buy it from.

Approval for this Bavarian massive test program (test as often as you desire)?  Well....the Health Minister for Germany (Spahn) hasn't been that happy with the idea, and suggests that testing often doesn't really resolve many problems.

A testing center now open at the Frankfurt Airport?  Yes.....first in the country.  You'd walk in, get the test done, and then present your certificate for the travel situation and the country you will be flying into.  Negatives?  Well....you get tested and then have to wait at least an hour or two for the results, so you might go to have a drink....pick up the virus, and four days later in the new arrived vacation spot....show the symptoms.

Monday, June 29, 2020

This Polish Election Chatter

If you watch German news over the past two days.....things have been hyped up about the Polish Presidential election, and the German media push is for the Civil Platform Party to win.....thus kicking out the 'lousy' right-wing folks in the Law and Justice Party. 

It's been somewhat comical last night as the ZDF news team (Channel Two, German public TV) tried to explain everything and give a good spin on the Civil Platform Party fixing this right-wing business. 

So, lets get to facts.  In Poland, if you get 50-plus percent of the vote, you avoid a run-off.  If no one gets 50-plus percent, then you get into a two-candidate fight. 

How many parties were in the weekend election?   Eleven.  The top winner?  The Law and Justice Party (right-wing) got 43.6-percent of the vote.  The second place group.....the Civil Platform Party (left-of-center)....got 30.3-percent of the vote.  So these two will run against each other.

How this appears?  The 4th and 5th place parties are right-of-center and probably would go and support the Law and Justice Party.  But you need all of those voters (1.75-million) to show up again, and vote this way.  The 3rd place winner?  The Independent Party might show up and go for the Civil Platform Party....but that only means 2.66-million voters. 

From the remaining parties...it adds up to around 3-percent of the vote.

So the right-wing guys winning here?  Fairly good odds, as long as people show up a second time, and that's the biggest concern. 

Angering the journalists at ZDF once again?  Well....they have to go and explain why so many Poles just aren't that hyped-up with the left-of-center message or politics. 

VAT Down?

The Value-Added-Tax (VAT) in Germany going down 3-cents?  Yes.

So the discussion will occur in the Bundestag today, and the goal is to sign off with the lowering of the VAT, down to 16-percent (instead of 19-percent).

A big deal?  Most economic experts are talking mixed results.

First, it's ONLY for six months, and would go back 19-percent on 1 January.

Around 20 years ago, it was a standard 16-percent.  In 1968, it was ten-percent.

So if we were talking about a nifty 800 Euro TV that was on the sales floor last month?  The new price would be 776 Euro.  Some stores are desperate enough to just move items....that over the next six months....they might be willing to throw another 10-percent cut on prices, and try to entice with specials. 

All ending after Christmas?  Well, that's the curious timing to the story. 

Picture Story

For several years, there's been this trend going on where news crews (not just public TV but private commercial TV as well) have done film operations and met up with angry Germans who DON'T want to be part of the filmed background.

So this case came up over the weekend in Stuttgart, where a N24 crew were doing a report of the non-riot situation in Stuttgart over this past weekend. 

SWR did a good simple report of the situation.

The crew was downtown, and a journalist was doing his report....when this one German (older guy) walks up from his back (you can see this guy from 40 meters away).  The German guy stops at the crew and informs them....he doesn't want his image in the report. 

An 'attack' is probably not the word to use, but the older German did his best to intimidate the crew and force deletion of the video. 

When he does finally step away....within a short bit...the German police have come to question the guy and his intent.  He explains that he just doesn't want to be used in any video. 

Forty years ago, no German would have said much.  Now?  Various Germans see video crews or private individuals taking pictures or video, and they don't want to be imaged.  Somewhere in the next ten years, I suspect this will be a public issue, and various political groups will be trying to write a law over how you can shoot pictures or images in public. 

Horsepower Talk

N-TV produced an interesting report, and I've looked over it in detail.  The topic of discussion is this thing about German-purchased cars....that horsepower over the decades, has increased....NOT decreased.

Statistically, since 1990 (going back 30 years)....cars have gone up 67 hp. 

The average car sold in Germany now....has 159 hp.  The average car in 1990 had 92 hp.

For a number of Americans who were around in the 1970s and 1980s.....they can attest to the marginal hp discussion.  The 1984 VW 'Rabbit' had an amazing 1.7 liter engine with 74 hp.  If you'd gone with the diesel engine (1.6 liter), then you would have enjoyed 52 hp. 

Even the amazing 1980 Opel Manta (sports-like car) existed with 99 hp. 

The Renault 1979 '5'?  You accepted the fact that 55 hp was all that you could squeeze out of the car.

So what really happened over the past three decades?  Technology delivered fuel efficient engines, safer vehicles, and real pick-up-and-go. 

For three years, I tried to exist with the Smart car.  The max speed (with your foot against the floor) was 140 kph, with an amazing 70 hp.  Zero pick-up-and-go, and simply not a car for the autobahns.

This anxiety about higher horsepower?  You can find various environmentally-conscious Germans who fret a good bit over the horsepower situation. In their mind, you really don't need 200 hp, or even 100 hp. 

The odds that hp will increase even more, on average?  Pretty safe bet, if you ask me.

Sunday, June 28, 2020

German Banning Rules

ZDF (German public TV, Channel Two) put up a good reference to current Coronavirus ban rules:

Baden-Württemberg:  Starting this week on the 1st of July, up to 20 people can now meet from differing houses, in public. Old limit was 10 people.

Bavaria:  Up to ten folks can meet in a public situation now.

Berlin:  Starting this weekend....no ban rules on public meetings.

Brandenburg:  No ban rules on public meetings.

Bremen:  Relatives from two different houses can meet in a public situation.  But there is a limit of 20 in a enclosed area (as long as you practice good hygiene).

Hamburg: The limit here is two households and ten folks total.

Hessen: Ten folks can meet....households don't matter.

Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: As long as they are your relatives, no limit on relatives, but limited to two households.  If just one household?  Max of  ten people in a public situation. 

Lower Saxony: Two household max.....up to ten folks.

North Rhine-Westphalia: Max of ten folks can meet....in a outdoor situation.  If you are from Warendorf or Gutersloh....there are some pretty strict rules because of the outbreak.

Rhineland-Palatinate: Up to ten people can meet regardless of the number of households.

Saarland: Ten-person rule.

Saxony: Two households rule in effect, Fifty people can meet for a family situation....either at a rented hall or restaurant.

Saxony-Anhalt:  Ten person rule in effect.  Up to 20 folks if this is some type of private celebration or party.

Schleswig-Holstein: Ten person rule. 

Thuringia:  Ban rules lifted, but there are recommendations (10 people).

As you can see....depending on what state you are in....you need to pay attention. 

American Base Story

There is a great piece over at Focus today, which chats to the topic of American forces in Germany, and the various impacts....when 9,500 troops leave later in the year.  I would strongly recommend a read of the article.

I sat and watched the German-American military 'relationship' over a period of twenty years (coming and going on several occasions). 

When I arrived in 1978, you could still wander around Frankfurt and a few other cities....to see areas that hadn't been renovated yet from WW II.  Frankfurt was undergoing a vast construction phase, which even today in 2020.....locals would grin and say that it's still NOT done yet.

AFN-radio in 1978?  A lot of Germans within 20 miles of Frankfurt would tell you that they used the American entertainment portion more, than they used German public radio. 

American GI's spending money?  Frankfurt was turning a ton of money over in terms of food, beer, and entertainment. 

As the 1980s went by.....it didn't matter where you went in central or south Germany....any American installation was a 'treasure' to the local establishment because of cash-flow. 

As unification occurred and troop cuts were on the agenda....some communities woke up and watched US bases shutdown, and in a short period of time....the cash-flow dropped to virtually nothing. 

Today?  There's probably a dozen German communities left, which have a presence noted, and the local mayor will be blunt in their assessment.....if the installations close, a major part of the financial success of the community will go away as well. 

In the Wiesbaden area that I reside today....they might argue that they have the capability to re-use the property and come out even in terms of cash-flow.  They would also admit that they really don't want the runway problem that the Americans would leave them, and worry somewhat about some commercial use coming to the medium-length runway. 

So to the obvious question....did Americans just freely spend and filter US cash into these various communities since 1945? 

The simple answer here?  Yes. 

It doesn't matter if you talk West Berlin, Frankfurt, Stuttgart, Heidelberg, Ramstein, or Hahn....a ton of cash flowed through the system.  In the Bitburg area before the closure came....several hundred local apartments/houses were rented out to Americans at the installation, and Germans had the properties as investment situations.  Rent was probably higher than it ought to be, but this was part of the 'game'.  When the closure came?  Well....those investment situations dried up pretty quickly, and you were left with a house that had lost probably one-third of its value.

The negative side?  You as a community had to put up with potential drunken fights involving US Army characters in local clubs and bars.  You had to put up with significant traffic flow in highly rural areas.  You had to bear stupid questions asked by a continual flow of Americans....asking why this works this way, or why such-and-such is mandated.  The fact that some of the cash-flow was not reported as income or taxed?  This disturbed a number of Finanazamt people that some German businesses simply weren't reporting their true income. 

If you went out across Germany though and asked regular Germans (not politicians or journalists or intellectuals)....I suspect it'd be roughly two-thirds of the nation who'd say that this isn't a big deal and if the US military left, they wouldn't worry about it.  Maybe in the Kaiserslautern or Spangdahlem area, it'd matter differently because they really need the extra cash-flow.

As for the Cold War necessity to exist?  It's not even worth a discussion to bring up this evil Soviet empire threat discussion.  Everyone buys natural gas from the Russians, and via taxation on the Russian gas empire....we all sit here in Germany....sponsoring the Russian Army, it's tanks, with the missiles and submarines.  Then we pay German taxes which support the US basing situation, and even more to support the German Army having it's own tanks and missiles. 

Red-Pill Chatter

Someone brought this up today....with the novel 'Alice in Wonderland' written by Lewis Carroll in 1865. 

Back in 2010....I sat in a theater and watched the movie version of it (Johnny Depp). 

So at some point in the story, it's suggested that if you take the 'red-pill'....you will see clearly and notice things that you didn't see before.

Then they pipe up and talk about the 'blue-pill'....which is for those who want to keep themselves unfocused....accepting jitters, unease, and distress as being acceptable or the norm. 

I remember this little talk and kinda wondered if it was meant as an amusement piece or political chat moment. 

This was written in 1865, and probably meant to be a introduction for a child that some point will arrive where you either see clearly, or you continue to exist in a pretend world.  I have my doubts that Lewis Carroll meant this as a Orwell-type situation (like in the book 1984). 

The thing is....a lot of the 2010 movie stands out, and this red-pill and blue-pill thing makes journalists and intellectual pause and reflect. 

The odds that a red-red-pill may exist?  That you might see a sudden burst of reality, and gaze past it....for a double effect?  Or that a blue-blue-pill might exist, where your unease was continually reassured, even in the roughest of times?  Or is all this pill discussion just worthless talk you'd conduct with a triple-shot of cognac? 

I've noticed at least two German journalists talking about the 1865 book today, and this red-pill, blue-pill issue.  Maybe it's worth a discussion.  Maybe a thousand German intellectuals will pop into a book store tomorrow....to buy Alice in Wonderland, and re-read it again (40 years after the first reading). 

Corona Tests

At the very beginning of the Coronavirus in Germany....there was a stringent rule followed by doctors with the Coronavirus test available. 

The procedure would work this way.  You would call the doctor and note 'problems' which you felt were the virus.  The doctor would ask questions over symptoms and where you'd been in the last couple of weeks.  Over the phone, this would take roughly three minutes (depending on how talkative you were).  At the end of this....he would yes, maybe you should take the test, and he'd put a digital 'voucher' into the system, then tell you the address of the county testing office.  You would drive up, walk to the door.....knock, and the lady would check your medical insurance card, and then perform the test.  If the doctor felt 'NO', then no test was offered. 

For a number of weeks, that's been the standard throughout Germany.

So it came up in the news today (via an article I saw on N-TV)....Bavaria (the state) has gone to a different version. 

Bavaria will very shortly have an open-end test.  You ask for it....you get it...anytime, within the state.

Is it mandated for people to take the test?  No.

Is it free?  No....it's going to be covered by health insurance, and probably by some degree of funding by the Bavarian state government.  At the beginning of the crisis....the test was around 200-Euro.  Lately, the pricing has gone down....that cost issue isn't part of the discussion anymore.

So will more people take the test?  For people who seem to always have a temperature or cold....maybe it'll be easier to take the test, and quickly disprove they don't have the virus.  More kids to take it?  Maybe. 

Will this prove anything?  That's really a big question with no real way to answer it.  I do believe that within a month, most of the 16 German states will have gone to this.  We may even reach a stage by December, where some Bavarians have taken 20 tests....all negative in results. 

Federal Financial Supervisory Authority Woes

BaFin is the general word used for the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority....the audit group of the German government.  They are the people who are supposed to go and look at the books and bank records of companies....to keep them 'straight' and honest.

They've been around for about 18 years and based out of Frankfurt.  Prior to 2002....there were three agencies that existed, with varying missions and purposes.  This 'fusion' was supposed to create an all-in-one organization....that maintained public trust.

So this past two weeks, Wirecard (the company) has been in the news.  When an audit was recently completed....Wirecard had 1.9-billion Euro on the books, which physically didn't exist. 

One aspect of this 1.9-billion Euro which still amazes me....they were actually paying taxes on fake profits, which seems a bit illogical (the more you ponder upon this).

The logical question came up....shouldn't BaFin have noticed problems a year, or even five years ago?

ARD (public German TV, Channel One) covered this question.  It's interesting what they found.

In 2019, BaFin hired a private company (legal by all aspects) to conduct the Wirecard audit.  Number of people involved in this....ONE.  Yes, one single guy.

An investigation by the government will be done, and probably released in a couple of weeks.  It's anyone's guess how they will view the mess, and the results of a marginal audit in 2019. 

Disco Quarantine?

I noticed this 7-line update off ARD (German public TV, Channel One) this morning.  They reported on a disco in Zurich, Switzerland.

What they say is that some guest came in last weekend....partied-up and danced throughout the evening, and then came up positive on the Coronavirus this week. 

So as part of the ban rules in Switzerland....to be open as a disco, you have to have everyone's name, phone number and address.  The authorities came up and went down the list for that evening....300 people.

They contacted them and then emphasized.....a 10-day self-quarantine. 

Most will probably do it without reservations.  Some will do it with extreme frustration.  And some will probably go around the self-quarantine game, in hopes that no one reports them. 


Saturday Evening in Stuttgart

From the various sources of news, Focus carried the more insightful news for the city and police efforts to maintain order.

The police say that nothing much occurred for Saturday evening.  Higher number of patrols were conducted (including horse patrols). 

What they do say....at various stages after dark, with 'alcohol-courage' occurring with the teens present....they came to insult or trying to incite the police to take action against them.  Bad behavior is probably the worst that one can suggest for the evening.

So what to expect for the next month or two?  I would suggest some police presence to be noticed, with active patrols being the norm.  In simple terms....it's sending a 'message'. 

Saturday, June 27, 2020

Example of Corona on Business

I often essay on downward trends of business involving the Coronavirus here in Germany.  An example came up this week from HR (my local Hessen public TV network).

HR did a whole story on the disco scene in Frankfurt, and talked about the woes of business now.

This one basement club in the Sachsenhausen area of Frankfurt had been shut down for weeks because of the virus bans.  The 14th of March was the last night that they had 'real' business. 

Even with a 9k Euro grant from the government.....they were now at their final days.  The manager figured they could slide by June and maybe July....but that would be it....closure would probably come.  They'd used every penny of spare change to keep paying bills/rent.

As they did the interviews....around the Frankfurt area, it's figured around thirty disco clubs or pubs are in the same situation.

When the ban would end, and openings to occur?  The Hessen government has no idea. 

The problem here....even if these collapse and close...the owner of the building is stuck with a empty structure and no hope for 2020 that another renter might come along.

Explaining BfV

Germans don't utter BfV much, and I suspect if you tested ten-thousand Germans....fewer than fifty might give you some basic description.  If you utter 'The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution'....then most Germans will tell you a basic three line description.  They work along the lines of what an American would say is the FBI, and Federal Marshals mission.

The 'agents' of BfV?  There are sixteen state 'devices', along with the BND (their version of the CIA), and Military Counter-Intelligence (MAD).

Once they assess someone, or some group....the file is opened and they asses open data (newspaper article, agendas printed by the group, court-delivered documents, etc).  After that, they move to clandestine situations (by the law)....which means surveillance, IDing vehicle plates, going over fake front companies or charities.  They can also go at Internet providers, banks, and airline data.  Then at the last method....they can approach a special Bundestag group (called the G-10 Comission) and get permission to conduct phone taps.

Who gets onto this surveillance listing?  AfD (the political party), various radical Muslim groups, far-left radicals, far-right radicals, Neo-Nazi groups, soccer hooligan groups, Antifa, countries or companies participating in industrial espionage against German companies, criminal gangs, terror groups, cult groups, money-laundering groups, etc. 

Control Over German Citizens Traveling Within Germany

Most Germans are reaching a point of being surprised of the Corona ban business and limits of travel now being imposed.

So the RKI folks (the Robert Koch Institute) have a listing.  Once you as a community reach 50 new infections per 100,000 residents within a 7-day period....you (as the community) go onto a 'bad-boy' list, and noted as 'high-risk'.

My regional news (Wiesbaden Aktuell) noted this issue.

Here's the problem....until you come off that list, you as a member of that community are going to have trouble staying overnight in hotels outside of your German state.

Hessen has gone to agree with the forbidden side of this....saying hotels must preserve the safety of the general public.

Showing a test result that you are safe?  It's only good for a two-day period.  So if you were traveling around Germany for a couple of weeks, you'd have to continually test over and over, if you came from a district with issues.

Making summer travel near impossible?  Once your town or district falls on this list....you can figure all trips are near impossible, even if you don't have the virus. 

Friday, June 26, 2020

Travel Story

Back in the peak period of the Coronavirus period....the airlines basically shutdown.  If you were in some exotic place of the world as a German, you were basically screwed.  Tens of thousands were in this situation. 

ARD (public TV, Channel One) brings up this topic here in the AM today.

I essayed this dilemma on a number of occasions.  What was created by the German Foreign Ministry....was a contracted airline situation where you contacted the your German embassy in the country you were in, and one plane was flown (Lufthansa ended up as the appointed airline).  You boarded and flew home.

So the problem at that point....the Foreign Embassy would cover the cost at that point, but you would sign a document to board, and it basically said a review would occur later, and you probably would have to pay for the ticket.

Well....late in the past week....the invoices started to be mailed out to the people affected.  Prices range from 200 to 1,000 Euro (each). 

The cost of the whole episode?  94-million Euro.

An all-German listing?  Well....no.  Some are from other EU lands, and they appear to be getting the bills as well.

An unfairness to this?  If you had travel insurance and got stuck in South Africa or New Zealand....the odds are in your favor that the insurance will cover this type of event.  Without insurance?  Your return ticket from x-airline should amount to something but it means drafting the paperwork and hoping for a refund on your failed return flight. 

"Wir sehen dich nachher noch, wir finden dich"

In simple English, we'll see you in the future, we will find you.

So last night's non-riot unfolded in Stuttgart.  Focus had one of the better writings over the quiet evening....compared to last weekend.

Various reporters were out....to note any activity....along with a significant number of police.  Groups of young folks who did try to gather up....were encouraged to move along.

At some point, three guys seemed to stop in the area of the past riot, and had some type of discussion.  Reporters shot video of the three.  So at this point....things got a bit tense as the three approached the reporters, demanding they delete the video of the three talking.

The reporters refused.

A confrontation was brewing as one camera was grabbed by the young guys, with the threat of destroying it if the pictures weren't deleted.

Someone walking through the area, then came to confront the three youths, and they seemed to back off....but then made their little threat....we will find you later in the future.

At some point (about an hour later), two of the guys were detained by the police.  No information on the charges.  They were simply packed into a vehicle driven to a station.  Probably has nothing to do with the confrontation with the reporters.

Beyond that?  Mostly all quiet.  Probably the threat of added police and significant counter-measures prepared....ensured the 'peace'. 

The camera confrontation?  Maybe just three dealers in their normal location of selling drugs. 

Odds of anything more for the weekend?  If you look at the weather map, rain is anticipated for a lot of central Germany.  That might decrease the odds of any confrontations.

Stuttgart and the Weekend

SWR (the regional public TV folks) reported on what the police are going to prepare for....if more riots occur.

More mounted housemen?  Yes.

Increased police on patrol?  Yes.

Riot-control cops ready to be brought in (with the tactical gear)?  Yes.

Water canons parked and ready?  Yes.

There is some suggestion that someone (maybe the local police, maybe the federal folks) are going to monitor social media.  If groups under 'watch-status' start communicating with social media.....it will be collected in some fashion.

Private security on patrol?  This was brought up by SWR, and suggests that local business folks have hired them to protect their stores.

In simple terms, it would be stupid to repeat the riots again. 

Turkish Vacation Story

N-TV (commercial network news) had this brief note today on vacation travel and Coronavirus.

With the deals in place (just fantastic flight/5-star hotel/ all meals/drink as much as you want from the bar).....there is this little thing that the Germans brought up today.

Lets say you leave Germany, and on this flight into Turkey....three days later, you get the Coronavirus.

There is a 'standard' handling procedure in place by the Turks, and it involves the 'Trump-drug...hydroxychloroquine.

Yep.  The German government actually asked the Turks to remove this mandatory treatment idea, and the Turks said no. 

Turkish law says if you are infected....you MUST go to the nearest hospital, and be noted in their records as 'positive' and undergo the mandated 'care'.

Germans have been getting a fair amount of negative chatter on the hydroxychloroquine situation.  Even if the French medical establishment is pursuing this.....the general word is....evil-Trump.....evil hydroxychloroquine. 

Affecting Germans taking the cheap Turkish deal?  I'm not buying into that discussion.  For two weeks of a five-star resort on the Med, with drinks as part of the package, and airfare for 400 Euro.....I think Germans would overlook the evil-Trump chatter and the Covid-19 threat. 


Alcohol Banning Chatter in Stuttgart?

Yes, at least in the beginning stages.

SWR (public TV from the region) reported this in the AM today.

First, the state police chief is talking to the city officials over future measures.  More police presence is on the list, along with police-dogs as part of the plan (would be incredibly stupid to attack a German cop with a guard-dog on is side), and alcohol bans as a possible solution (this is the police pushing the idea, not the general public).

Second, there was a state ban existing already at gas stations and evening markets (from 10 PM to 5 AM)....for almost seven years (ending 2017).  When it ended...a lot of the more stringent measures (jail-time, hefty fines, etc) also lessen because the local authorities thought that the heavy alcohol consumption problem had concluded.  Obviously....it hadn't.

The problem with all this alcohol sales chatter is that drugs are still readily available....24 hours a day, seven days a week.  Also, if you knew that some 10 PM alcohol ban was going to occur, you'd just show up at some grocery at 6 PM....buy two bottles of cheap booze, and a six-pack of soda as your mixer....for your midnight boozing.  So it's hard to say stupid teens or college students would correct their behavior in public if a booze curfew occurred.

More trouble this weekend?  I would suggest that some folks will be coming into Stuttgart to test the police and see what type of trouble they can create.  More cameras and news crews around?  Oh....without any doubt.  The images would just give the police more evidence to process for future charges.  But I doubt that the stupid teens grasp that part of the whole episode. 

German Police and Drawing Weapons

I often 'preach' on the fact that Germany is really a sixteen state federation....than it is one single nation.

The topic came up in the last week, and Deutsche Welle did a great job over this topic of when German police can draw and use weapons.  If you asked a hundred Germans over this subject....you'd get a hundred responses.

In truth....there are sixteen responses, and it differs state by state in Germany.

In Bavaria or NRW (the two more populated states of Germany), the law given to the police is rather simple....you can ONLY 'render a person unable to attack or to escape'.  Yes, aiming to kill the guy isn't the direction given in those two states.

Some states have the direction of a warning shot required, before you fire the first round at the guy.

Some states have wording to say that if in a crowd situation (like on a street)....NO rounds can be fired.  Some have wording to say that if you warn the crowd (in some German version of 'duck'), then you can fire in the midst of a crowd.

The Federal Police, with the city-state of Berlin and the state of Schleswig-Holstein have a very non-wordy regulation in place about 'use of force'.  There's supposed to be a sequence of events to occur, which lead to only one final outcome....either a surrender of the guy, or the use of force (a weapon).

One general thing that you notice about German police, an enormous of training takes places at the very beginning of their career, and occurs again through various phases of their career.  They spend a fair amount of time yearly at firing ranges, and it's heavily stressed that the need to pull the gun....is always a last-resort situation. 

You can review the yearly number numbers, and for a nation of 83-million....they almost never go beyond one-hundred rounds of ammo fired in active sequences of law enforcement.  You can find various German police who admit over a 30-year career....maybe never fired more than a round in that entire 30 years.

So a national standard on police and weapons?  NO.  It differs state by state. 

More Is Less Story

Around a month ago, I brought up this new Berlin city law being pushed....called the Berlin Anti-Discrimination Act.

N-TV did a update on this in the morning, and it's worth a read.

The Act? In very strong terms, it bars public elected/appointed officials, (including law enforcement/police) from a discrimination behavior/act.  This is based upon gender, ethnic background, and 'other' factors.   All of this was supposed to prevent racism in Berlin.

It's a city/state act....not a national or federal act. 

The people who wrote the act draft....say it's very clear.  Most everyone else says that it's widely open for interpretation and could be used in countless ways left for you to imagine.

For various police officials, they will tell you that their job is to simply enforce the law.....which your sexual preference or gender, or ethnic side....doesn't really matter.  But in this case, they could be dragged into court over a guy they arrested, and the Act might fall into play that you unfairly arrested them (even if they were committing the crime accused).

In simple terms....fewer arrests would then occur, and the general public in a ten-year span would lecture the police on lawlessness.

So as N-TV points out....a curious thing happened with the draft of the Act.  The federal Interior Minister (Seehofer, CSU) stood up and said if anything of a serious act occurs within Berlin City.....the federal police (under his office) would not react or cover the event.  They'd basically leave the mess for city authorities and city/state police to cover. 

As you can imagine....this swiftly got the attention of the city Minister pushing the draft of the law. 

So they had to write various 'waivers' and exclusions into the bill (watering it down)....to ensure federal police would be available for potential riots.

You can stand and admire this whole creation from beginning to end....it was to supposed to end all racism and make Berlin a 'wunderschon' state (safe from the evil police who commit bad things).  With the waivers....the effective nature is removed, and it's mostly a empty bag of regulations.  Folks will pat each other on the back.....congratulate each other on the accomplishment....and in future riots or criminal behavior, the Act is null and void. 

One of my favorite quotes fall into place here....'the more you do....the probability of less accomplishment falls into play'. 

Limburg Story

Around six years ago, there was this hot topic for several months in Germany....surrounding a regional Catholic Church and it's bishop.  The location was about 12 miles away from where I live and it figured into the news almost nightly.  Today, HR (my local Hessen public TV network) did an update.

To explain the scandal....it goes to a renovation idea of a Cathedral over in Limburg.  It's a historic site and no one was going to argue about money being spent to preserve it.  The problem here....the project was going to involve not only the Cathedral, but the residence across the street. 

In a true renovation project, you'd go and hire a guy to be 'lead', and he'd have common knowledge on construction 'screw-jobs' and how to avoid wasting money. 

In the Limburg episode....this Bishop headed everything. 

At some point, the renovation costs were laid out.....31-million Euro.  It was around four times the originally planned amount. Where'd most of the waste go to?  The residence.  He'd have some part almost done, and then someone would talk him into upgrading this item (like the bathtub), and all the tile work done....had to be re-accomplished.  Over and over, he screwed up.

All of this came out into the public eye.

The Rome leadership finally said 'enough' and removed him.  The folks around Limburg?  They wanted actual corruption charges drawn up. 

So the update?   After this mess cleared a bit, the bishop was sent to Rome.   He was given a fake job of sorts....mostly to talk in countries where the Church doesn't really exist. 

Interestingly enough....he's vacationing this summer....back in Germany. 

Thursday, June 25, 2020

Odd Story on Covid-19

The Coronavirus and Ischgl tend to start up a conversation with Germans.  This is the Austrian ski resort that helped to turbo-charge the virus, and really drag it into view of most Germans.

Some medical folks went out and did a survey, which ARD (Channel One, public TV in Germany) carried this item.

What they found in Ischgl is that 40-percent of the folks in the mountainous region.....had Corona anti-bodies.  This means they had the disease.  But the same folks will tell you that they showed no symptoms.

Oddly enough....the largest collection of people in one region, found in this situation, with no shown symptoms.

A complete survey?  Yes, at least 80-percent of the population participated.

A reason for no symptoms?  So far....no.  It begs questions, and you'd figure that some university would pick up the study for a long-term project. 

Active lifestyle, heavy alcohol consumption, short summers?  Unknown.

'Do Not Enter' Posted

All this hype from NW Germany over the Coronavirus has reached a new epic point.

This morning, ARD (public TV, Channel One) said that residents of the districts of Gütersloh and Warendorf are now unwelcome on vacation travel in four German states.

If you had hotel reservations or campground arrangements.....from the two districts....once you arrive, you have to fill out a card and note your address.  At that point, they stop you, review the location....and send you home. Reimbursement of your money?  By law, yes....they have to pay you that.  The 50-Euro of fuel you burned to reach Bavaria?  Nothing will be paid on that.

There is a push going on with NRW political officials....to have one national 'rule' on this.  So far, the sixteen German states have refused to accept a national rule.

What'll happen now?  I would suggest that virtually everyone in Warendorf and Gutersloh will give up on any vacation this year, and a long marginalized summer will exist for them.  Frustrations will build and a lot of negativity will exist.

But then you have to wonder....will it just be the two regions?  No.  At some point in early July....I expect a couple more districts to pop up, and by the end of July....probably twenty Coronavirus regions will be on the 'bad-boy' list.

Here's the thing.....Hotels and campgrounds are desperate for people to arrive and spend money.  Bars, restaurants, and cafes are in the same situation. They have to assure customers that it's safe, and so these rules exist.

My humble guess is that some people might sneak around the identification of their residence....arrive by train...and just claim some fake 'home'. 


Wirecard: Done

This morning in Munich...the company Wirecard finally filed the paperwork....they are bankrupt.

Shocker?  I think the audit and banking folks would say that things were progressing this way for almost a decade.  Wirecard couldn't run their books in a way to show legal banking and money transfers. 

When the 1.9-billion Euro non-existence was tacked-up on the wall in the last ten days....no one there at the company could say much. 

Cleaning this mess up?  Thousands of Germans had 'cash' in Wirecard to handle international translations for their shop or business, and travel.  Their money?  Probably gone.  I watched an interview last night....small business guy....had around 4k Euro with them.  At this point, he doesn't think money exists....he'll just wait for the government to sort this out and figure out what he can get back.

Corrupt and built for money-laundering since day one?  Some people have suggested this.  But they lasted almost twenty years at this game, and you have to admire how they bested the German audit folks on countless occasions. 

Thursday Chatter on Stuttgart

The SWR folks (public network for Baden-Wuerttemberg) wrote up a piece today....talking about an accusation by the police union in Stuttgart, and various warnings they'd given the city leadership over the past couple of months about increasing 'bad behavior' of juveniles and adolescent 'kids' in the city.

As they point out, the trend was alcohol and drug consumption in 'green' areas around the city....with the situation being disrespectful for the police, and signs of aggression (lots of 'fake courage' via the alcohol one might assume).

The added note to the chatter mentioned....a fair number of the 'kids' were of a migrant background.  If you go and review Green Party chatter from within Stuttgart since Sunday....they kinda hinted the same issues.  In a comment to the press locally....Green Party member Hans-Ulrich Sckerl said in a direct way that the chief cause of the riot was integration problems (leaving out drugs or alcohol).

Another Green Party member said bluntly: "idiotische Wut zu zerstören", which loosely translates to 'an idiotic rage to destroy things'. 

The discussion on banning alcohol in public places?  SWR even went and had discussions with various people over this idea.

Basically, people do agree that something needs to occur, but no one wants to make public drinking on the street a criminal offense. As they point out....a couple out and wrapping up an evening at some opera....should have the right to consume a glass of wine on the street.

No one is urging a drinking ban at this point.  Closing off pubs or shutting down the beer-tap at an earlier hour, for a couple of weeks?  That might be the only action (note, you could still go and buy a case of beer for you and your buddies....consuming beer well past the closing point).  I don't see this really solving much of anything....plus drugs would still be in ample supply via the dealers.

They also point out social workers in Stuttgart are involved on continual efforts to bring juveniles and police together....to foster an understanding about problems of bad behavior. 

At the end of all of this discussion (as SWR points out)....what you kinda expected....the police are approaching the Stuttgart city leadership about more 'amok' equipment (the tactical gear to prevent injuries when confronted with riots like this).  While it prevents injuries for the police....it sends this blunt signal of military-style gear being the norm.  If riots didn't occur, the cops would have no necessity to ask for the gear....with the gear in display, one would expect the riots to further develop and continue. 

Arrival of Onfray

If you had said 18 months prior to the French national election that this candidate would appear out of thin air....never having had an elected position....French folks would have laughed at you.  Yet, Macron proved them wrong.

This week, a new French magazine has arrived on the scene.....pushed by Micheal Onfray (philosopher).  Basically, the publication is aimed at people who want a populist type atmosphere.  The group aimed at?  Well, this gets to an odd point.....he wants to bring leftists and rightists into the same room.

Yeah, it would normally be impossible.

The magazine?  'Popular Front'.

This will come out quarterly and be around 160 pages.  Aim?  To have a serious discussion over topics which are flash-points in French society.  He thinks that you can build up a political party out of thin air.....with key points that can be agreed upon. 

Getting a crowd of 50 rightist and 50 leftist to some central view?  I can't imagine it in the US, or Germany....but maybe France has some points which the two groups might find agreement (like less taxation). 

The odds that Onfray replaces Macron?  It might be worth a 'bet'. 

For the Lack of a AC Filtering System

Since this 'burst' of the Coronavirus up in the NW of Germany, and centered on this meat-processing company (Tonnies)....a number of health experts from the government have been looking for issues at the plant.

N-TV brought this up today, and there is this little item that stood out in their report.

Naturally, a meat-processing plant will have a significant AC unit cooling everything. 

Well...in this plant....it had no filtering system.  The health guys kinda indicate that most meat-processing plants run this way.

So the virus got into the air system....never slowed down....and drifted around to other employees.

Measures to be taken?  Yes.  But no one says the anticipated 'get-well' date.  If you approached most HVAC folks, they'd have to survey the project, order the parts, and spend a minimum of a week or two....installing a filtering system.  The more complicated or greater the size of the unit....the more issues.  It would surprise me if this were 'fixed' in 30 days. 

The odds that the entire industry will have to accomplish this within the next two or three months?  I'd give it a 100-percent odds. 

Wednesday, June 24, 2020

Corona News Chatter

There were two interesting pieces from ZDF 'media' last night (public TV in Germany, Channel Two).

First, via their 30-minute Auslands Journal program (always late at night)....they did a brief Coronavirus discussion which involved the meat-processing plant in the NW, and their employees....in particular....the Romanians.  It's about 7-minutes in length and worth watching.

So the jest of this....this German plant has a lot of non-Germans who work there.  Romanians appear to be the bulk of them.  They come in....are given 'quarters' and offered a pay-scale which is great compared to Romania, but limits them in various ways. 

The company offered up steel container type quarters.  Maybe in the beginning, the idea was to have just one guy, in one container (it's probably 10 ft by 12 ft, based on the image shown).  Later, they squeezed a second guy into the container.  Then later, a third, and later....a fourth.  Yeah, packed.  A little village with four times the original number planned. 

So when Corona came around, it was easily passed in the container room atmosphere.

There is some hostilities about how the arrangements were made, the handling of the Coronavirus situation, and some Romanians have given up on this meat-processing work. 

ZDF in some ways....dumped a whole lot of negativity upon the commercial operation, and made them look fairly foolish (they probably deserved it).

The second item was via the ZDF show 'ZOOM', another late-night news piece program.

They went to the folks who are anti-Corona, and anti-ban rules.  Over the past month, the usual response from the government and the news media....these people were all conspiracy freaks, and dumped upon.

So the ZOOM journalist went out to several folks were in the 'conspiracy' bucket and had a chat.

It's an interesting prospective.  The first was a couple of folks related to the hotel industry, and basically falling into a pit.  Their business hadn't returned to normal.....they were losing profits....and the future was not going to be kind to them.  You couldn't refer to them as conspiracy nuts. 

As they went through the others....the ban rules and damage done during April and May.....got dragged out.

You are left with this landscape.....there's no doubt that some conspiracy nuts exist, but a lot of these anti-Corona-anti-ban folks who have a legit reason to complain.  Business hasn't returned to normal, and in some cases....by the end of this year....a fair number of operations won't be open or functioning.  Layoffs are in the future, and banks will be unsettled over stability. 

Riot Update

There's a little five-line piece off the German news site 'Focus' which I thought was interesting over the Stuttgart riots from the weekend.

The city police set up a special 'portal' for information on the riot 'kids'.  So far.....6,500 photos and video clips have been submitted. 

I would make the assumption that a lot of these are simply duplicates (maybe 75-percent).

It appears that a lot of those involved shot the images and video during the riot, and posted them on social media, with viewers downloading and providing the data now to the police. 

Yeah, pretty stupid, but they wanted some type of 'credit' for their actions.

What happens now?  The police simply say that weeks of review and facial recognition software will be put to the task.  A month or two down the line....we probably will see images of various people 'wanted' by the police, and folks start to identify them.

The sad thing is that whatever you were drinking that night or consuming drug-wise....it made you go and do stupid things, and somewhere in August....some friend, neighbor or classmate will look at images being advertised by the police.  That hour of stupidity will turn into days and weeks of legal hassle, and possible sentence in some jail.

Police Study

ARD (public TV, Channel One) did an interesting report on the police and it relates to some degree to the Stuttgart riot from the weekend.

The Federal Police sat down with the numbers and noted the number of occasions that resistance to police arrest/detention occurred in 2019.  The number?  36,959.

That's 8-percent over the previous year.

Average numbers?  The Federal Police say it's been roughly the same number for fifteen years now.

So most people would sit and imagine that it's mostly all urban zones affected (that's what I thought), but no....it's smaller towns (Cottbus, Rosenheim, and Landshut get mentioned).

Last year, around 14k folks were processed on charges in Germany of assault on the police.  11,500 of them were male....so there were a few females in the mix.  Alcohol involved in the incident?  The data shows alcohol involved in 60-percent of these cases. 

What all of this leads to?  In general, resisting the police has some connection back to alcohol for the most part.  I suspect if you drug-tested all of these folks....you might find more data that explains the problems. 

But trying to suggest a beer tap-halt on pubs at 10 PM, or limiting drinks for consumers?  It's hard to imagine Germans accepting that type of change.

A lot of the police presence for DWI situations now....is a mass police presence.  You will occasionally see a block on the autobahns or major drags out of a urban center....with twenty-odd police pulling people into a line and doing a mass alcohol check.  No one says much for these occasions and I doubt if people resist at this type of event.

Years ago, in the late 70s as I arrived on my first tour of Germany....there were various bits of advice I was given on the Frankfurt scene.  One of those discussions centered around respect of the police.  'Don't do anything stupid or insulting to the police' was heavily stressed.  In that time period, the police still carried billy-clubs and using them wasn't a big deal.

Over the past two decades, I'd say that a number of things have changed, and with a little bit of booze or drugs....you'd get the 'courage' to resist the police, or challenge them.  Nothing good will come out of this, but it'll end up as a front-page item for the news people. 

NRW and the Coronavirus

Lot of 'chatter' today, if you look across the German news groups.

Focus carried two curious pieces, and N-TV had one update on Gutersloh (the town chiefly affected).

First, the Tonnies company (meat-processing) wrapped up all their testing of employees.  6,139 employees tested and 1,431 employees tested positive.  They also note....people around this group (probably meaning family members) also tested positive (353).

The journalists kinda point out that a second meat-plant in Lower Saxony is conducting bulk testing, and they expect a fair number of folks to be positive from there.

One might go and predict that meat-processing across the country will all start bulk-testing and come to announce more issues.  Not to suggest a meat shortage coming up, but if you shut down half the plants in Germany for 30 days....it's just going to be your local butcher in your village or town is going to have an adequate amount of meat around, and Germans will freak out buying tons of extra beef....like they did with toilet paper.

Second, Focus did cover a Chinese related item on Corona.  They apparently tested a number of factors and basically said that 'certificates' (something that the German government has discussed a good bit....are USELESS.

Their take (Chinese research)....once you wrap up a virus episode with Corona.....your immunity is only guaranteed for roughly 90 days.

The RKI folks had pointed out from previous episodes (Mers, Sars)....that you had a general immunity of three years.

Now, this is only the Chinese medical folks saying this, and one might wait for RKI to complete their tests.

If all of this were proven and signed off....then the certificate idea (allowing you to travel internationally) is worthless.

The N-TV piece?  Well, the crisis director of the town affected (Gutersloh)....collapsed late yesterday.  Complete exhaustion.

For roughly nine years, this guy has been the crisis 'lead' in the region.  A lot of pressure and stress with this task. 

Business Note

Back in 2006, before the economic banking crisis....Volkswagen got some advice and decided to part with their car rental company....Europcar.

At the time, they cleared 3-billion Euro on the sale.

It's a curious story....Europcar has been around, as a French company, since 1949.  In 1998, Volkswagen bought the complete company. 

There's talk this week that Volkswagen is interested in buying Europcar back.

The discussed pricing?  Well....just under 400-million Euro.  Yes, with the recession in effect and Covid-19 episodes brewing.....Europcar is severely under-priced. 

A done deal?  No one says that.  It's still at the talking stage. 

The odd feature of this discussion, and difference since 2006....two years ago, Europcar went out and bought Scooty.  I know....it's not a big known company.  They specialize in electric scooters that you see a good bit in Belgium, and can rent around train stations and urbanized areas.  It'll be curious to see if Volkswagen retains Scooty, or helps them enlarge their business operation around Germany. 

Corniavirus Chatter

The US has five or six 'Doctor Doom' types on the Coronavirus. 

Well....Germany has roughly three of these guys.  One often appears on RTL-TV (commercial TV) and is what I'd call a mini-Doctor Doom....trying to stress good sanitation habits, and ways to avoid the virus.  You tend to feel relaxed and comforted by his message. 

The RKI expert (typically appearing on public TV only) is a numbers guy, and facts only person.  He's what I could call a friendly 'Doctor Doom' who lays out countless slides and data. 

Then we come to Doctor Christian Dorsten, who mostly appears only on public TV (ARD/ZDF).  As 'Doctor Doom' status goes, he's a full-up ten. 

Today, he came out and made a public statement that he expects the second wave to be noticeable very shortly.  In quotation marks...."I'm not optimistic" is his big statement to the news people. 

In various ways, he's urging the government to look at the ban actions of April, and basically consider starting them again.

If Germany reverts back to the April bans?  To be accepting of a repeat?  No....I would suggest that a quarter of the German public will not accept a second time around.  You can refer to them as conspiracy freaks, or disbelievers....but they've lost confidence in the Covid-19 message or the actual threat. 

Strictly a German thing?  If you go look around France....same type of public sentiment....probably affecting a quarter of the population there.  I suspect all European countries have the same brewing issue.

The bigger issue?  If we wake up in late July and the urgency to start up the bans as started....schools which would normally open in August....will go back to the email or at-home program, and folks will be shaking their head (the previous effort didn't show much success and you can't run a school program like this for months).

Corona Comeback in Germany

Well....yes and no.

This current hype (past ten days) basically centers on a particular area of Germany (Gutersloh).  On the map?  NW of Germany, about halfway between Hanover and Dortmund. 

The significance of the virus there?  Well, it started in a big way with the meat processing company Tonnies.  The company did mass testing, and presently around 1,500-plus individuals from the company....are testing positive. This more or less freaked out the regional NRW state government.

At some point last week, the government basically quarantined a whole group of people in one massive apartment building....putting up a fence and having the police monitor things within the fenced area.  Pissing off locals in the building?  Yes, to a great extent.  Even if you don't have the virus....if you live in the building, you are under the rule of quarantine.

The suggestion of the entire town/region being quarantined?  This apparently has been brought up.  People affected?  Near 640k residents. 

I sat and watched the interview last night....public TV moderator and the Premier-President of NRW (Laschet, CDU).  Moderator was pretty tough on the guy, and he was pretty confident of containing the virus outbreak.

Added Corona rules coming back in NRW?  There's going to be another shutdown period for museums and bars.  Restaurants and hotels can continue to function, with more strict rules in effect. 

The real effect, if you ponder upon it....this entire NRW area would be crossed off most Germans list for a vacation for the summer.  Add to it...going to quarantine an entire region with 640k people?  It's going to require a massive number of police to enforce this, and I'm kinda wondering where they will find enough police to make this a practical quarantine. 

Tuesday, June 23, 2020

What is/was Wirecard?

I could make this a epic piece of 20-odd pages, but I'll make this simple and to forty lines.

Wirecard was a business banking situation....created about 20 years ago in Germany.  It's main purpose?  Electronic payments.  It was built to be an alternate to credit cards and regular banking transfers.  Headquartered in Germany, at Aschheim (suburb of NE Munich).

On the books, they had around 5,000 employees total.

At some point, around five to six years ago, they started to offer help to Chinese folks....who were visiting Europe....to transfer cash/capital in for their trip or extended stay.  Last year, they acquired a major Chinese money-transfer company....to be a part of their inside-China plan. 

Around the summer of 2008....accusations came up and the first round of problems were noted.  An audit occurred.  It's safe to say that some of the issues were cleaned up, and some success was made in getting the company back to a functional standard.

About every two years after that....some significant problem was noted, and 'cleaning up' was a on-going process, with stock prices rising and falling constantly.  As much as they were cleaning....every year or two....fresh problems were being discovered. 

In the fall of last year....stock manipulation was noted by FT.

In the past week, another audit was done.  This time, the audit basically said that around 1.9-billion Euro is simply not existing.  Yesterday, the company came to agree...yes, the 1.9-billion Euro doesn't exist (maybe it never existed in the first place).

All of this leading back to stock manipulation? Well, yeah....that's the big issue.  Was this all leading to money-laundering?  A fair number of business analysts are suggesting that from day one.....to today....this was mostly a contraption to move hidden money from one site to another.  Some might even suggest that the CEO and board were hidden from that view, and never grasped the full impact.

All of this leads to a news item which few Germans can readily understand.  Didn't the German government monitor things like this, and have professional people to prevent money-laundering?  And if the 1.9-billion doesn't exist....how many other fake companies exist.....with billions on the books but it's non-existent? 

Talking Economics

N-TV did a great German business update segment today...would recommend it.

Economic experts are now saying that the GDP is shrink....by 6.5 percent at the end of 2020.

Their talk says around mid-summer of 2021....things will start toward a recovery stage.  The anticipated recovery?  Near 5-percent growth over 2020's GDP.

Unemployment rate?  We are apparently nowhere near the peak, and this rate will continue to rise for all of 2020, with a retreat only seen in the mid-section of 2021 (if you follow their statement).

Affecting the 2021 national election?  No one talks about that.

No one in 2019 anticipated the economy would be a big deal for the 2021 election, and this really changes the chatter and politics angle.  The odds of the Green Party guy....Habeck....being a central part of the election?  Zero chance, if the economy continues like this. 

Dozen Things in Germany That You Ought to See

Everyone has a list of things that you ought to go and see in a visit or during a period that you live in Germany.  This is my list:

1.  Hessen Park.  About 30 minutes north of Frankfurt.  It's a collection of buildings that existed from the 1500s to 1800s, and all in great condition.

2.  Saalburg. Only 3 minutes from Hessen Park.  It's a reconstructed Roman 'fort'.  Great historical site.

3.  Eagle's Nest, Berchtesgaden.  First, I'd only go in the spring or summer, and I'd bring my walking shoes to walk down from the site.  Do this only in fair weather.

4.  Hohenaschau Castle, west of Berchtesgaden.  Schedule an all-day stop-over.

5.  Munich Residenz.

6.  Grimmwelt and Teufelsbrucke, Kassel.  Grimmwelt is a museum devoted to the Brothers Grimm and is highly educational.  The Teufelsbrucke (about 20 minutes away) is a great work of landscaping.

7.  Tempelhof Field.  The grounds are totally open, and a major piece of the 'Cold War'.

8. The Germania statue along the Rhine River.  Don't eat at the town below (mostly all a tourist trap). 

9.  Neuschwanstein Castle.  Figure a minimum of three hours for the trip and walk.  Hint: don't go in July or August, when the tourist season is jam-packed.

10.  Museum Island in Berlin. 

11.  Bamberg (the city).  You really need to make this a full ten-hour walk.

12.  Zugspitze mountain-top.  You can go up by tram, or by cable car.  I'd avoid this in winter.  Figure six hours for the whole trip up, admiring the view, sipping a beer, and getting back to the car. 

The German Corona App

ARD (public TV, Channel One) did an update on the new virus App, and talked about results.

A week into downloading the App....the news people report that around 12-million Germans did the download (out of 83-million).  More to come over the next couple of weeks?  I'd anticipate that another five million by the day thirty of the release.

The one problem with the release?  You have to have a more modern phone (Iphone 6 or Android 6 model minimum).  So the guys who've held their old smartphones for five years or more?  Screwed mostly.  What is said is that the vast majority of Germans have the newer model phones in their hands (suggesting 85-percent).

That's one difference with Germans that I've noticed since the technology era started....some Germans just don't dump a phone after two or three years.  A handful of older Germans are proud of the fact that they still have the same cellphone that they purchased back in 2007. 

Bugs or hacking?  A bug or two has come up but nothing that amounts to stoppage.  So far, no one says anything about hacking.

The Two German Books

In a twelve-year period of Germany (1855, 1867).....two highly significant books were written by two Germans.  Both went into massive publication.  One is remembered....one is forgotten.

So let's talk about the first one....Debit and Credit, written by Gustiv Freytag.  It was designed like Uncle Tom's Cabin....to be a highly fictional piece, but to lay out the pitfalls of economics....namely debit, and credit.

This came out as a series originally (in magazine format) and later, a publisher (1855) brought all of the stories together.  Germans bought the book in massive numbers and it was one of the most published books of the 2nd part of the century.

It was basically a long discussion over investments, bad planning, evil speculation, bad Jews, a changing society, loans, and corrupt business practices.

A lot of Germans bought into the book because they sought wise advice that you typically couldn't get off the street.

When the casino operations in Wiesbaden were tossed by the Prussians.....the local Hotels sought Freytag, and brought him into town to give lectures.  For the wealthy and elite.....he was a 'breath' of fresh air.

Yeah, he was a antisemitic.   His advice might be not be that great in today's atmosphere, but he was something that simply didn't exist in that time period.  And the advancement of his book was simply because there wasn't that much in terms of competition in this time period.

So twelve years pass, and Das Kapital comes out by Marx.

The key to the Marx point is that work-production, not ownership of the product or company, was matched up to service or product.  Profits (assuming there were profits) should be a worker controlled thing.

Das Kapital went out and became the working man's book....unlike Debit and Credit by Freytag.

Did Das Kapital match up with the theme of the mid-1800s?  More or less.  The problem with this is that brand names, more technology-driven products, services imagined in the 1800s, and creativity....went on to make the book less of value.

By the time you get around to the WW I period....Das Kapital is marginally fitting into the market-place of Germany, yet still often referenced. 

Credit and Debit by WW I?  Almost completely forgotten.  An odd situation to ponder upon.

Arson Attack

In my local region (in the Frankfurt shadow), news came up this morning over a Molotov cocktail 'attack' at a Frankfurt job-center (unemployment agency of the government).

Local cops say that building on Fischerfeldstrasse was attacked and suffered some minor damage.  Police are investigating. 

It's safe to say that a fair number of Germans are often negative about the job-centers and their track record.

Stuttgart: 23 June

Riot conditions still prevail in Stuttgart (as of Monday night).  Social media is active with various threats/chatter directed at the authorities/police.

Some folks have suggested that the riot is mostly coming from migrants.  That's a false narrative....at least half of the arrested 'kids' from early Sunday AM....were pure and absolute Germans (24 arrested in that effort, two were women).

Lot of chatter over use of alcohol and drugs to give the riot-kids 'courage'.

Alcohol bans being discussed in Stuttgart?  Yes.  No one says the type of situation, but one might imagine open event parties will have the beer-tap turned off at 10 PM....for a month, to make an impression.

Local club owners being invited to round-tables?  That's very likely to occur, but it'll likely lead to enclosed events (within buildings or fenced-in areas).

'Landfriedensbruch' got brought up in several publications.  It's basically a law requiring respect of public safety.  If you violate this....you could be talking about time in prison (up to 3 years) or a fine.  Typically, it was always used for soccer bad-boys or serious Antifa type riots.  It appears that most of the 24-odd people in Stuttgart arrested...may be facing this charge and seeing at least a couple of months in prison.

More cops on the ground in Stuttgart for this upcoming weekend?  I would imagine that several hundred will be drawn from outlying regions. 

Monday, June 22, 2020

As the Smoke Clears in Stuttgart

After the early AM riot concluded in Stuttgart.....we have some results.

Based on reporting from several sources, we can say this:

1.  Some 16-year old German kid is now accused of attempted homicide.  Video shows him kicking a kid on the ground during the riot.  The city prosecutor says the kid has accepted the possible 'death' of the student.  The injured kid isn't dead yet, but is in serious condition. 

2.  Warrants issued so far?  Eight total (one of them was issued on Sunday).

3.  Suspects on the list?  They include Germans, Croats, Iraqi, Portuguese and Latvians. Charges mostly circle around 'breaching the peace', and dangerous bodily harm.  Assault on law enforcement officers and theft are also coming up.  Those over 19....will be looking at serious time in prison, if convicted.  The youth crowd (under 19), will be looking at much lesser time.

4.  Mostly all male (two women among the 24 arrested in Sunday AM hours).

5.  A 40-member police commission will examine every single detail of the riot, what went wrong, and how to resolve this for the future.  Yeah, I would suggest it's a bit strong on numbers, but I think they are looking at motivation of the riot 'kids', and if more serious laws need to be created/recommended.

6.  The connection between alcohol and drugs?  This has been discussed for twenty years now.  You can go into numerous German urban areas and see the drug trade at work, with minimum police effort being made to resolve this.

7.  One odd aspect got brought up over Youtube videos seen from the riot.....at midnight, in the midst of the riot.....a fair number of 'kids' were wearing sunglasses and hoodies.  Some Germans don't believe the innocent 'kid' story that the politicians and police are putting out.  They think it's Antifa.

The Age Talk

About every three months....some folks from the Linke Party, the Greens, or the SPD....stand up and voice the idea that voting rights be extended down to German teens (age 16).

N-TV covered the newest 'voice'....the SPD gal who serves the Justice Minister of Germany (Christine Lambrecht).

To accomplish this, you'd have to amend the Constitution and have a majority in terms of the Bundestag and the 16 states in somewhat agreement.  Right now, there is simply not the numbers to accomplish this. 

The general problem with the suggestion?  If you say sixteen year old 'kids' are old enough to vote, then they are old enough to face adult punishment in the court system.....meaning real sentences and real jail.  Lambrecht has said no.....that voting is different from criminal behavior.

One can bring up this topic with working-class Germans.....they'd say all issues change if you amend the Constitution....to include making 'kids' adults and sending to serious court action if they screw up.

If you were to rate this proposal on passing?  I'd say it's less than a 10-percent chance that it'll pass over the next five years. 

Stuttgart Riot Chatter

Still a lot of simmering feelings from the Saturday evening riot in Stuttgart.

The Baden-Württemberg's Interior Minister (Thomas Strobl) came out yesterday and said that they will use every possible angle to identify those who participated, and bring them to justice.  In his statement, he put a fair amount of blame on drugs and alcohol.

How the riot started?  Police basically cornered some drug-dealer (young guy, age 17), and were attempting an arrest.  His 'buddies' reacted.  Whatever number of police were onhand for the drug arrest....were no match for the 200-odd friends.

The potential that some in the crowd were 'riot-tourists'?  This got brought up via N-TV this morning.  It's been discussed by the police but they admit there's just not a lot of facts to support that.

As for the non-German part of the riot-group?  Bosnia, Afghanistan and Somalia get mentioned.  These were the folks among the twenty-four arrested/detained. 

My interpretation?  I think among the party-goers for the evening....a small number of non-Stuttgart folks were in the mix and probably looking for trouble, and the arrest of the one dealer was enough to set off the riot.  I'd also suggest that various dealers were in the crowd....probably knowing the one guy that the cops were messing with, and felt determined to help their friend. 

Once the cops began to arrive in force (getting up to almost 300 of them at 4 AM)....the situation changed, and the 'kids' left the center of town.  Getting 300 at 4 AM?  They basically had to put the call out to every single station within decent driving distance of Stuttgart.  I would also add this unusual factor about German public transportation.  In most German metropolitan cities....the mass transit (subway system) shuts down between 12:30 and 1 AM, and usually reopens around 4:30 AM. 

As for the response?  There will be a lot of public forum chatter this week about teen thugs, violence, police and drugs.  I expect a hefty show of police in Stuttgart over the upcoming weekend, and a fair showing of riot-prone young men.  The use of social media to advertise 'riots'?  Someone is going to bring up social media and suggest more rules. 




Sunday, June 21, 2020

Seven Facts Over the Stuttgart Riots From Saturday Evening

This is mostly based off public TV reporting.

1.  This riot started when some 19-year old kid was taken by the cops for a drug-related situation.  This was in central Stuttgart, near the Palace Gardens area.  An event party was going on at the time, and police say that around 200 to 300 teenagers reacted to this (rocks, etc).

2.  At the peak, near 300 police were downtown and trying halt the riot.  Somewhere around 4AM, things calmed.

3.  Nine shops were completely looted, with another forty-odd shops in some stage of damaged.

4.  Twenty-four folks arrested....half are German....half are non-German.

5.  At least 19 police officers were wounded in the riot.

6.  Antifa?  No.  This appears to be simply teenagers from around the city, with alcohol consumption or drug use (my belief) as part of the problem.

7.  There's a request for a special hearing for the state Interior Committee, to discuss teenage behavior and crime like this.  Hard to say where this will lead onto....maybe a curfew for those under 18....maybe serious jail-time for anyone with drug activity. 

Stuttgart Riots?

Cops this morning are reporting minor rioting in Stuttgart last night.  N-TV is carrying some of the images and talking about what the police said.

Center of the riot?  Around the Schlossplatz point, and the major shopping area of Königstraße.

This apparently started around midnight, and went on until around 2 AM (Sunday morning).

Description of the folks?  Simply 'young men'. No one is suggesting crime-clan gangs or Antifa....it's simply damage to shop windows and rocks being thrown at police.

Quantity?  The police say 'hundreds'.  And then they all quietly disappeared into the night. 

Virus Story

Over in Lower Saxony (the German state), there's this town of Gottingen (roughly 120k residents).  On the map, this is just north of Hessen.  Over the past couple of days, it's been in the news, and Focus carried a pretty decent update to the problems going on there.

So, the Coronavirus has taken off again in the local area.  What the authorities report.....189 new and fresh cases of the virus in recent days.

What the police say....is that several family celebrations (sounds like birthday parties, but that's kinda left for your imagination)....occurred, and someone passed Corona onto some other folks.

The big story to this is that a fair number of the new infected come from ONE single neighborhood, and ONE single apartment building. 

So the authorities came in and did a shocker....they set up a quarantine zone for that one building.  Doesn't matter if you have the virus or not....if you live in it....you are on quarantine rules. 

You can imagine the hostility of non-virus folks....at both the authorities, and the neighbors.

Yesterday (Saturday), cops were trying to enforce the 'zone', and locals got hostile about this, with rocks being thrown upon the police.

Number of people living in the structure?  Around 700, more or less.

At some point on Saturday afternoon....building residents went to the next phase....escaping from the structure.  You can put yourself into their shoes....if you don't have the virus, you would not want to remain in the building....waiting to get the virus.  So as they attempted to escape....cops were there to force their retreat.

All of this is simply creating a negative feeling over the authorities, the police, the re-emergence of the virus, and blame going on between neighbors.

More escape attempts likely?  I'd say it's a 100-percent chance. 

Saturday, June 20, 2020

Population Story

The German Office of Statistics....came out this week and announced the actual population of Germany.  Basically, over the past year, it's risen and sits at 83.2-million.  N-24 talked about this on a update in the week. 

The Corona deaths?  Didn't really matter.

Migration part of this story?  Yes, without any doubt.  Most would agree that things did slow down after the 2013 to 2016 mass migration situation.  But on the other front....with legal migration folks applying in numbers....it helped to bulk up the country.

You have to remember that various nationalities now make up Germany.  An example here....438k Greeks are now part of Germany.  Around 180k Chinese make up part of Germany.  Even around 40k Australians and New Zealanders help to make up Germany. 

Pure Germans?  The number floats around 75-percent (roughly 62-million).  They've even got a term used on occasion....repatriates, which usually means your relatives....even generations ago, left Germany, and you've brought your family back to the 'homeland'.

A Twist to Politics

This week, the German SPD Party (left-of-center) announced that they were going to randomly pull 20 names out of a party membership 'hat', and then ask them their opinions on a fairly regular basis. 

Why?  Well...some folks around Germany will say that the SPD Party (and even Merkel's own CDU Party)....are both out of touch with regular working-class people/voters.

I would go as far as saying that just walking around and asking a hundred Germans in general....what the SPD Party was about in 2020, you'd get one-hundred different opinions.  Maybe in a top 100 SPD executive membership meeting....they'd all meet up and talk the same chatter, and seem focused, but the public isn't really feeling that focus.

Will the opinion of the twenty matter?  It's difficult to say that will be the end-result.

The big-wigs of the party may be shocked that regular people care about taxation, road projects, incompetent leadership, and a stable economy. 

This Mass-Testing Chatter in Luxembourg?

Well, it's only in a discussion stage, and here's what is generally said.

People are worried about Covid-19 and they think controls need to be set.  So the general idea is that you would regularly (no one says how often) test 600k residents of Luxembourg, and 300k non-residents who cross the border often and work in Luxembourg. 

Cost factor? Back in February, the Germans laid out the test cost at that point at 200 Euro ($240 US) per individual test.  Recently, there's been test kits floated around the US for $120.  On bulk purchase, some say you can acquire test kits for $100 each. 

But if you look at the idea of every two weeks....testing 900k folks....it'd be a fair sum of money. 

Business Story

Early in the AM of today, the smoke has cleared on the closing of various Karstadt stores in Germany.  Focus carried a great update on the story.

For those unfamiliar with the brand Karstadt/Kaufhof/Galleria....they are the Macy's of Germany.  Towns that had a Kaufhof or Karstadt....were the place where big pockets people shopped.  For probably twenty years, there's been this downward trend, with malls taking customers away from the traditional stores.

So the future?

62 of 172 stores....to be closed.  Roughly one-quarter of the 28,000 employees to be let go. 

In some cities, it's a big deal.  Bremen for example, has 700-plus employees going out the door.  Osnabruck has 700-plus employees going away. Witten has 700-plus employees going away. 

The sad thing about this timing....with the recession in play for the next year or two over Covid-19....there's simply no store-front jobs which will consume the unemployed here. 


Friday, June 19, 2020

New Receipt

I went to my local German grocery today.  So, we got to the clerk, and everything is done....with the print-out occurring.

Suddenly, the lady hands me this receipt....dark blue...crappy paper, and I'm kinda asking 'what the hell'.

Well....the grocery went to the newest level of German hyped-up environmentalism.  The receipt is made of recycled paper....about as blue as you can get.

I looked at the numbers and item listing, and it's fairly unreadable.  Course, this makes Germans fairly happy about being pro-environmental. 

Talking Over Gang Violence

Earlier in the week, I essayed a piece on a little 'conflict' going on in Dijon, France....between a gang associated with Algerians, who decided to do a beating on a local Chechan kid.  The Chechans?  They reacted, with extreme violence, and the French folks in town were suddenly shocked at the amount of guns brought into the situation. 

Focus (the German news magazine) brought up this item today, and talked to an expert.

This expert brings up three interesting observations:

1.  The Chechans were fully grasping the dynamics here, and immediately wanted to set a landscape up....they were not to be intimidated with or to be treated as a lesser party.

2.  Among Chechans, there is a matter of honor, and respect.  If you screw with us.....we don't come back to the table in fear of you. 

3.  There's little doubt that Chechans from Germany crossed the border and were part of the assembled group in Dijon, France. 

The Germans basically admit that around 50k Chechans reside in Germany.  They exist in major urbanized areas....like Frankfurt or Berlin.

So at the end of this discussion in Focus.....the question comes up....is it possible that little 'wars' may erupt in Germany, where some gang has tried to intimidate a Chechan group, and the Chechans react as they did in Dijon?  The belief is yes.....they will.

Folks can laugh about this, but that's the same laugh that folks in Dijon had, and then over the past week....they now realize that the police weren't prepared for this type of conflict or warfare.  Same can be said for the Algerian gang.....they weren't prepared for this type of response. 

It's a curious situation developing.