It's an interesting short story that Focus (the German news magazine) put out....on the diesel car crisis in Germany.
The new head guy of the German Federal Ministry of Transportation asked the question.....are all these negative numbers being reported by air measuring stations accurate
Well.....no.
As he points out....some sites are now being reexamined, whether even if they meet the normal EU requirements.
So it came up about this one measuring station around Stuttgart, which was put onto a very heavily traveled road. No one had any argument about that. But the folks who signed off on the site.....were particular on which side of the road that the site should be. That didn't make a lot of sense.
Later, the experts discovered that the original site.....gave them X-facts. But once they shifted this around, to the opposite side of the street (same location, just opposite side of the road).....the number variation to X-facts dropped by two-thirds.
Why? No one goes into details. My guess is that they chose a side that had a tall building for first position, and the 2nd (opposite) side was an open point (maybe a parking lot).
So the question then....if you had a dozen collection sites around Stuttgart giving you data, and a year later you discovered that they were all purposely put on a point where it'd give you false data....then you corrected this, finding the two-thirds of the bad data gone.....what does that say?
But the question here after you think about it.....obviously these geeky guys had some kind of agenda to start with and knew precisely how to place the measurement stations to give you the fraudulent data.....what else are they hooked up to and giving you bad data?
Then you come back to the whole German diesel crisis....was this all fake? If you really wanted massive fury against the environmentalists for creating this whole mess....this would generate it.
Saturday, March 31, 2018
Gravestone Story
Our regional public TV network (HR) covered an unusual story this morning.
There's a new law passed in Hessen which deals with cemetery operations and gravestones. Over the past decade, folks have begun to realize that gravestones are being imported into Germany a good bit (the unfinished product). A local 'finisher' will buy x-stones and have them ready to write upon.
Well....the stones are generally (roughly 50-percent) imported now from India (shocker there), and there's a fair amount of accusation that children are being used for labor in this stone quarry operations. 'Child-labor' is the accusation.
So Hessen wrote up a law which says that if you import gravestones....you need to have a certificate that says no children were used in the process of cutting the stone.
I paused looking over this story. What you will get is a bunch of stones imported with the right certificates and some undercover operations coming up to prove kids were in the process. Eventually, the only solution left will be to ban all gravestones being imported from India.
Why this shift over to India and getting gravestones from there? Well....it comes to two things. Unique coloring comes from Indian quarry operations, and this is a big trend here in Germany. And then there's this cost factor, with the child labor involved.
There's a new law passed in Hessen which deals with cemetery operations and gravestones. Over the past decade, folks have begun to realize that gravestones are being imported into Germany a good bit (the unfinished product). A local 'finisher' will buy x-stones and have them ready to write upon.
Well....the stones are generally (roughly 50-percent) imported now from India (shocker there), and there's a fair amount of accusation that children are being used for labor in this stone quarry operations. 'Child-labor' is the accusation.
So Hessen wrote up a law which says that if you import gravestones....you need to have a certificate that says no children were used in the process of cutting the stone.
I paused looking over this story. What you will get is a bunch of stones imported with the right certificates and some undercover operations coming up to prove kids were in the process. Eventually, the only solution left will be to ban all gravestones being imported from India.
Why this shift over to India and getting gravestones from there? Well....it comes to two things. Unique coloring comes from Indian quarry operations, and this is a big trend here in Germany. And then there's this cost factor, with the child labor involved.
Friday, March 30, 2018
Germans and Drag Racing
Over the last couple of years in Germany, there's been this problem of drag-racing private vehicles....on German city streets. It's to the point that several accidents have been created, and people unrelated to the racing....have died. So Germans are in this fix-it type of behavior.
I opened up Focus today and they were discussing this new idea that the Premier (governor) of NRW (the state) has suggested.
He wants to confiscate any vehicle determined to be in a drag racing type situation, and within X-amount of time....sell it and the money go to the state.
Yeah, it would mean confiscating private property....having a judge make a determination, and effectively just take the car from the private owner. It's a fairly serious idea and I suspect various political parties would easily come to agree on the idea.
The fact that these racing deaths have made front-page news on several occasions.....has made public perception pretty tough on the response.
I opened up Focus today and they were discussing this new idea that the Premier (governor) of NRW (the state) has suggested.
He wants to confiscate any vehicle determined to be in a drag racing type situation, and within X-amount of time....sell it and the money go to the state.
Yeah, it would mean confiscating private property....having a judge make a determination, and effectively just take the car from the private owner. It's a fairly serious idea and I suspect various political parties would easily come to agree on the idea.
The fact that these racing deaths have made front-page news on several occasions.....has made public perception pretty tough on the response.
Germany, Hartz IV and 2018
For non-Germans, Hartz IV is the German welfare program that came about in the 2004-2005 era, and was designed to avoid serious financial issues that were building up with the old program.
The idea for the change was to take several programs in existence....merge them....rewrite the standards....rebuild the Job-Center idea, and get German focused on getting jobs to get out of social welfare.
The result over the past decade? Today, one in seven German kids are in a family that is completely dependent on Hartz IV. Roughly 600,000 of the new migrants/immigrants into Germany....are on Hartz IV. The general claim is that roughly 13-million Germans are either in the Hartz IV program (full-up welfare) or on the borderline where they live pretty near poverty status. Out of 82-million citizens and residents....it's a fair number.
What happened? I would draw this down to five basic issues:
1. Retirement was marginally adequate decades ago, and it's only gotten worse in the past ten years. A lot of people worked their entire life on a limited income and find that at retirement....it's nowhere near the level required to live without state aid.
2. A lot of people didn't have a second option or IRA-like situation, so their one and only pension deal....is 'it'. There is nothing else.
3. The job market changed over the last couple of decades. People find themselves at age forty....with no real career, no craft, no certificate, nothing.....that really picks them up when unemployed, fired or laid off. So the job counselor at the local job-center looks at the guy's background, and there's nothing there. The unemployed guy was just a clerk...or just some gardener....or just some stock-clerk at some warehouse. So trying to plug this no-career guy into some new job is practically impossible.
4. Wage stagnation. Most Germans will tell you (from the working-class generation) that over the past two decades of work....they might have seen two or three pay-raises at the very most.
5. The political parties work with the welfare issue as a permanent fixture, and pull it out when they need to focus everyone on some problem (like getting to focus on this right now instead of migration or immigration).
What'll happen over the next six months? I think you are looking at a SPD Party (they put Hartz IV up originally, and they 'own' the program)....who has dismal numbers and need to rebuild public enthusiasm for the party. So I think their agenda will go down to three central things:
1. The Hartz IV program will disappear and be renamed. Welfare will come to disappear, with some social program rebranding at work.
2. Somehow, they will have to find a minimum of two billion Euro (maybe even on up to four billion Euro)....to pump up the social welfare program of today. This means more taxes added onto society.
3. Some structured job program with incentives for companies to hire extended-long out-of-work welfare cases. Maybe a 10,000 Euro per year tax credit for each long-term guy you hire (or three years). Maybe some training program for long-term unemployed.
All of this will lead onto some public news media campaign to make everyone feel that a great accomplishment was rendered by the SPD, with the help of the Green Party and the Linke Party. Course, at the end of 2019....financial numbers will be added up and show less money in the hands of the middle-class, and people wondering where the new taxes came from and how it affected their class of financial success.
The idea for the change was to take several programs in existence....merge them....rewrite the standards....rebuild the Job-Center idea, and get German focused on getting jobs to get out of social welfare.
The result over the past decade? Today, one in seven German kids are in a family that is completely dependent on Hartz IV. Roughly 600,000 of the new migrants/immigrants into Germany....are on Hartz IV. The general claim is that roughly 13-million Germans are either in the Hartz IV program (full-up welfare) or on the borderline where they live pretty near poverty status. Out of 82-million citizens and residents....it's a fair number.
What happened? I would draw this down to five basic issues:
1. Retirement was marginally adequate decades ago, and it's only gotten worse in the past ten years. A lot of people worked their entire life on a limited income and find that at retirement....it's nowhere near the level required to live without state aid.
2. A lot of people didn't have a second option or IRA-like situation, so their one and only pension deal....is 'it'. There is nothing else.
3. The job market changed over the last couple of decades. People find themselves at age forty....with no real career, no craft, no certificate, nothing.....that really picks them up when unemployed, fired or laid off. So the job counselor at the local job-center looks at the guy's background, and there's nothing there. The unemployed guy was just a clerk...or just some gardener....or just some stock-clerk at some warehouse. So trying to plug this no-career guy into some new job is practically impossible.
4. Wage stagnation. Most Germans will tell you (from the working-class generation) that over the past two decades of work....they might have seen two or three pay-raises at the very most.
5. The political parties work with the welfare issue as a permanent fixture, and pull it out when they need to focus everyone on some problem (like getting to focus on this right now instead of migration or immigration).
What'll happen over the next six months? I think you are looking at a SPD Party (they put Hartz IV up originally, and they 'own' the program)....who has dismal numbers and need to rebuild public enthusiasm for the party. So I think their agenda will go down to three central things:
1. The Hartz IV program will disappear and be renamed. Welfare will come to disappear, with some social program rebranding at work.
2. Somehow, they will have to find a minimum of two billion Euro (maybe even on up to four billion Euro)....to pump up the social welfare program of today. This means more taxes added onto society.
3. Some structured job program with incentives for companies to hire extended-long out-of-work welfare cases. Maybe a 10,000 Euro per year tax credit for each long-term guy you hire (or three years). Maybe some training program for long-term unemployed.
All of this will lead onto some public news media campaign to make everyone feel that a great accomplishment was rendered by the SPD, with the help of the Green Party and the Linke Party. Course, at the end of 2019....financial numbers will be added up and show less money in the hands of the middle-class, and people wondering where the new taxes came from and how it affected their class of financial success.
Germany and Mobbing
Mobbing is a unique term which gets thrown around Germans a good bit. The definition of mobbing is a psychological campaign that typically occurs in schools or workplaces, where an individual is bullied, tormented, or harassed enough.....to leave (in the permanent sense). To accomplish this....the target is usually dumped upon with false accusations, given useless job tasks, issued threats, given continued criticism, or simply pushed into some type of social isolation.
About a decade ago, some PhD folks sat down and analyzed the amount of mobbing going on in Germany and came up with the round-number of one-million people who get workplace mobbing (which doesn't even include school mobbing).
For the 'victims' of mobbing, a number of things occur. You lose confidence.....you get anxiety over working....you distrust your work-place. No one studies the long-term unemployed rate in Germany....but I would take a guess that twenty-percent of the long-term German unemployed are people with mobbing issues in the past.
So if you are sitting at some pub or cafe, and your German associate brings up the term 'mobbing'....you at least have a starting point on understanding the social problem.
About a decade ago, some PhD folks sat down and analyzed the amount of mobbing going on in Germany and came up with the round-number of one-million people who get workplace mobbing (which doesn't even include school mobbing).
For the 'victims' of mobbing, a number of things occur. You lose confidence.....you get anxiety over working....you distrust your work-place. No one studies the long-term unemployed rate in Germany....but I would take a guess that twenty-percent of the long-term German unemployed are people with mobbing issues in the past.
So if you are sitting at some pub or cafe, and your German associate brings up the term 'mobbing'....you at least have a starting point on understanding the social problem.
Thursday, March 29, 2018
New Migrants?
It's not front-page news, but Focus brought it up today, and it's a curious piece that affects Germany.
Back about nine months ago....Serbia got this idea to adjust the visa situation for Iranians. The Serbs don't really talk much about the change but they relaxed it to help funnel tourism and potential investment money from Iran.
A curious thing happened though with this easy-access visa deal into Serbia.....the Iranian tourists arrived (now at least 6,000) and used the visa to access borders, and entered into Europe. No one says much over how many came into Germany or France but you have to figure the majority of the 6,000 came in, and intend to stay.
At some point in the mid 1990s...Serbia hit a peak on population (around 7.8-million). In 2017, they were at 7.01-million. Over the past decade, you can see a 40,000 decrease with the population almost yearly. Some of this relates to the lower birth-rate....some relates to young people leaving the country because of poor job potential....and some relates to lack of hope over better living conditions.
Muslims in Serbia? Well....the general number is around 210,000 out of the population....more or less.
My guess is that the Foreign Office in Serbia saw a chance on selling simplified visas and a chance to draw investment in from Iran. Cyprus has done this and attracted 'guest' investors as well.
Germany to say something? If you use the 2013 period and look over the general reaction time.....you can figure it'll take three years for someone to add the numbers and get hyped up.
Back about nine months ago....Serbia got this idea to adjust the visa situation for Iranians. The Serbs don't really talk much about the change but they relaxed it to help funnel tourism and potential investment money from Iran.
A curious thing happened though with this easy-access visa deal into Serbia.....the Iranian tourists arrived (now at least 6,000) and used the visa to access borders, and entered into Europe. No one says much over how many came into Germany or France but you have to figure the majority of the 6,000 came in, and intend to stay.
At some point in the mid 1990s...Serbia hit a peak on population (around 7.8-million). In 2017, they were at 7.01-million. Over the past decade, you can see a 40,000 decrease with the population almost yearly. Some of this relates to the lower birth-rate....some relates to young people leaving the country because of poor job potential....and some relates to lack of hope over better living conditions.
Muslims in Serbia? Well....the general number is around 210,000 out of the population....more or less.
My guess is that the Foreign Office in Serbia saw a chance on selling simplified visas and a chance to draw investment in from Iran. Cyprus has done this and attracted 'guest' investors as well.
Germany to say something? If you use the 2013 period and look over the general reaction time.....you can figure it'll take three years for someone to add the numbers and get hyped up.
The CO2 Story
It's not a top ten type of topic, and I doubt if more than 10-percent of Germans really care, but if you watched ARD news (German public TV, Channel One) last night....it rated near the top. Germany has a set of goals for emission of carbon dioxide for 2018. Well....as of last week....they met the limit for all of 2018....so they will seriously exceed the 2018 goals (just like in 2017, but lets not bring that up).
According to ARD....the goal was a total of 2017 million ton of carbon dioxide for the whole year.
Who does this calculation? the nature conservation group WWF. According to them....by the end of 2018....Germany will have done four times the amount of permitted CO2. Chief blame? They suggest all of these coal-fired power stations that were supposed to have been shut down. Course, if the Germans hadn't hyped up the closure necessary on nuke plants....they might still be on the big plan from a decade ago. No one brings that topic up though.
Oddly, few mention it....but the US, even though they dumped their Paris Accords deal....are set to meet their goals. I'm guessing some Germans are a bit angry over this.
As for public discussion over this report? I noticed a couple of folks asking how the heck that the WWF measures this business, and if some areas are higher producers of CO2 than other areas. You notice this particular topic is usually avoided by the climate geeks. Major urbanized areas would naturally fit into the highest-to-blame group, but that would raise a bunch of questions about how the measurements are done and if any of this takes various other factors into consideration.
According to ARD....the goal was a total of 2017 million ton of carbon dioxide for the whole year.
Who does this calculation? the nature conservation group WWF. According to them....by the end of 2018....Germany will have done four times the amount of permitted CO2. Chief blame? They suggest all of these coal-fired power stations that were supposed to have been shut down. Course, if the Germans hadn't hyped up the closure necessary on nuke plants....they might still be on the big plan from a decade ago. No one brings that topic up though.
Oddly, few mention it....but the US, even though they dumped their Paris Accords deal....are set to meet their goals. I'm guessing some Germans are a bit angry over this.
As for public discussion over this report? I noticed a couple of folks asking how the heck that the WWF measures this business, and if some areas are higher producers of CO2 than other areas. You notice this particular topic is usually avoided by the climate geeks. Major urbanized areas would naturally fit into the highest-to-blame group, but that would raise a bunch of questions about how the measurements are done and if any of this takes various other factors into consideration.
German Repatriation Centers
Last night, ARD (public TV in Germany, Channel One) covered one of the immigration topics in Germany....repatriation centers.
For several months, in Bavaria....the CSU (the Bavarian conservative political party) has hyped up the idea of moving failed visa-immigrants out of the country faster. So on their list of things to improve the process.....there's going to be three centers eventually open. When you get paperwork saying you failed the process, unless you volunteer on your own to leave.....they will detail you to be transported to this repatriation center.
Yesterday, the Bavarians said that the first of these centers will be open by the fall (probably before the 14 October state election). Who will run it? The Federal Police of Bavaria.....at least that's what's said so far. I have my doubts that the Federal Police will accept the role.
Locations of the stations? Mancing and Bamberg are generally mentioned.
I would make several observations over this idea:
1. I expect various pro-asylum groups to hinder this in court and attempt to shut-down or slow-down the repatriation centers.
2. I expect the Bavarians to run into a major problem with different individuals not having passports, and not having the old nation accept them back.....so some of these folks are likely to be spending not months, but years in some repatriation centers.
3. As soon as you get some folks into these centers....there will be break-outs and then the whole topic of maximum security will come up....with more personnel required to run the centers.
In a way, the general public is demanding something occur with failed visa-applicants (back in January, there were roughly 500,000 on that list). But you just don't get too many positive thoughts over how the repatriation centers will be run, and how the news media will brand them as negative places to be put into.
For several months, in Bavaria....the CSU (the Bavarian conservative political party) has hyped up the idea of moving failed visa-immigrants out of the country faster. So on their list of things to improve the process.....there's going to be three centers eventually open. When you get paperwork saying you failed the process, unless you volunteer on your own to leave.....they will detail you to be transported to this repatriation center.
Yesterday, the Bavarians said that the first of these centers will be open by the fall (probably before the 14 October state election). Who will run it? The Federal Police of Bavaria.....at least that's what's said so far. I have my doubts that the Federal Police will accept the role.
Locations of the stations? Mancing and Bamberg are generally mentioned.
I would make several observations over this idea:
1. I expect various pro-asylum groups to hinder this in court and attempt to shut-down or slow-down the repatriation centers.
2. I expect the Bavarians to run into a major problem with different individuals not having passports, and not having the old nation accept them back.....so some of these folks are likely to be spending not months, but years in some repatriation centers.
3. As soon as you get some folks into these centers....there will be break-outs and then the whole topic of maximum security will come up....with more personnel required to run the centers.
In a way, the general public is demanding something occur with failed visa-applicants (back in January, there were roughly 500,000 on that list). But you just don't get too many positive thoughts over how the repatriation centers will be run, and how the news media will brand them as negative places to be put into.
Political Update
Focus (the German news magazine) brought up an interesting short analytical piece this morning.
The new Merkel-led coalition government is in full swing now.....and you'd expect some really good numbers. Well....they don't exist.
A polling group at YouGov (the institute) covered Germany, and found only 11-percent of the public buys off on this coalition being good or very good.
43-percent of the public says the new coalition is average or mediocre.
Then you come to 39-percent who rate the government as bad or really bad.
If you were looking for a bad sign on public skepticism.....this is where you'd start.
As for the SPD public numbers? They are pulling around 17-percent right now....having bumped up two points in the past month. The AfD still holds strong at 15-percent, and the Greens hold at 11-percent. Linke Party? 11-percent. FDP at 8-percent.
What all of this leads onto? Both major parties are desperate to get immigration and migration off the public view, and for the rest of 2018, I expect dumping Hartz IV (the welfare program) to be topic number one.
The problem with the dumping....you'd have to come up with at least a billion to two billion extra Euro to 'gift' people to a higher rate of welfare. That means more taxes and the public will quickly grasp how this gimmick will work. The sad thing is that they will probably end up with a slightly enhanced welfare program where everyone on the program gets a 15-percent bump-up, and job-wise....no better improvement.
The new Merkel-led coalition government is in full swing now.....and you'd expect some really good numbers. Well....they don't exist.
A polling group at YouGov (the institute) covered Germany, and found only 11-percent of the public buys off on this coalition being good or very good.
43-percent of the public says the new coalition is average or mediocre.
Then you come to 39-percent who rate the government as bad or really bad.
If you were looking for a bad sign on public skepticism.....this is where you'd start.
As for the SPD public numbers? They are pulling around 17-percent right now....having bumped up two points in the past month. The AfD still holds strong at 15-percent, and the Greens hold at 11-percent. Linke Party? 11-percent. FDP at 8-percent.
What all of this leads onto? Both major parties are desperate to get immigration and migration off the public view, and for the rest of 2018, I expect dumping Hartz IV (the welfare program) to be topic number one.
The problem with the dumping....you'd have to come up with at least a billion to two billion extra Euro to 'gift' people to a higher rate of welfare. That means more taxes and the public will quickly grasp how this gimmick will work. The sad thing is that they will probably end up with a slightly enhanced welfare program where everyone on the program gets a 15-percent bump-up, and job-wise....no better improvement.
Wednesday, March 28, 2018
Public TV Show Story
Monday night, I skipped the ARD (German public TV, Channel One) show....."Hard But Fair". It's a live public forum with topics picked each week which interest the German public.
I went back to review comments made about the show and came to Focus Magazine's short description of the evening. The topic was.....German welfare (Hartz IV).
They had wrapped up most of the hour-long show and gotten to the final question.....where the moderator (Frank Plasberg) asked the guests the last 'big' question. The question was.....for an entire day of charitable work.....who'd you like to see in such a position?
They went around the group and Hans-Werner Sinn (chief of the IFO Institute (Munich)) responded that he'd like to see the person in this group (to include the moderator) who makes the most money. Then he looked straight at the moderator from ARD, to note that Plasberg was that big-money guy.
I suspect Frank was a bit shocked....but laughed over the comment.
It kinda opened up one of those questions that some Germans have about public TV, and the salary structure. One can only guess what ARD pays Plasberg, but I would assume some amount of money over 250,000 Euro a year. If you were looking for a list of salaries within the public TV network....it's about the most secret thing existing in Germany today. Maybe the CEO of the public TV network has his salary in some public setting, but you won't find anyone else mentioned.
As for this welfare discussion? Right now....it's moved up to topic number one for the journalists and political folks. Most folks think that some replacement program will occur in 2018.....but where they find the extra couple of billion Euro laying around is another question.....unless they invent another tax.
I went back to review comments made about the show and came to Focus Magazine's short description of the evening. The topic was.....German welfare (Hartz IV).
They had wrapped up most of the hour-long show and gotten to the final question.....where the moderator (Frank Plasberg) asked the guests the last 'big' question. The question was.....for an entire day of charitable work.....who'd you like to see in such a position?
They went around the group and Hans-Werner Sinn (chief of the IFO Institute (Munich)) responded that he'd like to see the person in this group (to include the moderator) who makes the most money. Then he looked straight at the moderator from ARD, to note that Plasberg was that big-money guy.
I suspect Frank was a bit shocked....but laughed over the comment.
It kinda opened up one of those questions that some Germans have about public TV, and the salary structure. One can only guess what ARD pays Plasberg, but I would assume some amount of money over 250,000 Euro a year. If you were looking for a list of salaries within the public TV network....it's about the most secret thing existing in Germany today. Maybe the CEO of the public TV network has his salary in some public setting, but you won't find anyone else mentioned.
As for this welfare discussion? Right now....it's moved up to topic number one for the journalists and political folks. Most folks think that some replacement program will occur in 2018.....but where they find the extra couple of billion Euro laying around is another question.....unless they invent another tax.
Monday, March 26, 2018
Sushi and Germans
About three years ago in Wiesbaden, this trend started up in grocery stores....Sushi-shop. At the time, I was shaking my head. It was a small corner of the store, with two Japanese guys carving up and making plastic trays that you could buy for six to twelve Euro for take-out circumstances.....with a refrigeration area with oddball Japanese drinks, ice-tea, etc.
Well....about two miles down the road is my second-nearest grocery (small town of 15,000 residents)....and I noticed this afternoon as we entered....five guys were busy putting up their Sushi-shop within the grocery.
I asked my German wife about this whole thing (she's not a Sushi-person), and even she's admitting that this whole thing has been oversold. They are counting on sixty-odd people stopping off each morning and purchasing a Sushi-tray for lunch-time.
Just on the cost level.....it's a question mark, each one of these shops require two actual Japanese folks to operate.
Long term trend? I just can't see more than two-percent of German society having the willing nature to eat Sushi once or twice a week.
Well....about two miles down the road is my second-nearest grocery (small town of 15,000 residents)....and I noticed this afternoon as we entered....five guys were busy putting up their Sushi-shop within the grocery.
I asked my German wife about this whole thing (she's not a Sushi-person), and even she's admitting that this whole thing has been oversold. They are counting on sixty-odd people stopping off each morning and purchasing a Sushi-tray for lunch-time.
Just on the cost level.....it's a question mark, each one of these shops require two actual Japanese folks to operate.
Long term trend? I just can't see more than two-percent of German society having the willing nature to eat Sushi once or twice a week.
The No-Country Crowd
I sat over a short story from ARD this morning....concerning migrants who failed the German visa exam. It's an odd story.
There are (at least toward the end of 2017) around 65,000 failed visa applicants in Germany...who have this massive problem....no identification papers, and thus no way to be returned to their homeland.
It's a 71-percent increase over the previous year and a sign of long-term problems.
From this group.....around 5,700 folks from India....almost 5,000 from Pakistan....almost 4,000 from Afghanistan, and almost 4,000 from Russia.
In fact, the Germans even acknowledge they've got around 3,800 folks who won't give them any idea of their originating country.
So as they tell the story.....the second and more critical part of the problem comes out. Even when you get the guy to give them enough info to hand to the second country.....it doesn't really mean anything because they may not react or even acknowledge the guy was originally in their country. Yes, there are various countries who really don't care to get their people back from Germany.
The carrot-and-the-stick method of getting responses? No one suggests that but you have to wonder how exactly you can move this along, or if it'll ever move along. To be honest, I don't see any 'ace' that Germany holds....unless you were to deny visa-entry into Germany to a vast crowd unless the governments react.
There are (at least toward the end of 2017) around 65,000 failed visa applicants in Germany...who have this massive problem....no identification papers, and thus no way to be returned to their homeland.
It's a 71-percent increase over the previous year and a sign of long-term problems.
From this group.....around 5,700 folks from India....almost 5,000 from Pakistan....almost 4,000 from Afghanistan, and almost 4,000 from Russia.
In fact, the Germans even acknowledge they've got around 3,800 folks who won't give them any idea of their originating country.
So as they tell the story.....the second and more critical part of the problem comes out. Even when you get the guy to give them enough info to hand to the second country.....it doesn't really mean anything because they may not react or even acknowledge the guy was originally in their country. Yes, there are various countries who really don't care to get their people back from Germany.
The carrot-and-the-stick method of getting responses? No one suggests that but you have to wonder how exactly you can move this along, or if it'll ever move along. To be honest, I don't see any 'ace' that Germany holds....unless you were to deny visa-entry into Germany to a vast crowd unless the governments react.
Puigdemont Arrested in Germany
Over the weekend, German cops got some type of insider information, and stopped a car crossing into Germany and heading toward Belgium....with the Catalonia 'head of state' Puigdemont sitting there. Based on an arrest warrant from Spain, they apprehended him.
What happens now?
Most German news groups covered the story, I'll cite ARD (public TV, Channel One) for most of my info.
Surprisingly enough....he's in the hands of state folks.....not German federal cops. Schleswig Holstein state legal folks are going to be the ones to examine the EU warrant and if it's within their power to hand him over.
There's roughly a 60-day window now in effect. By EU rules, unless something unusual comes up....they would be expected to hand Puigdemont over.
The threat from Spain in court? They could pile on enough charges to keep Puigdemont in prison for three decades (at least they hint that). By doing that, they would create a permanent front-page story.
My guess is that the local judges will draw this out for the full sixty days and try awful hard to make the Spanish government present its case. In the end, I think Puigdemont will be handed over.
What happens now?
Most German news groups covered the story, I'll cite ARD (public TV, Channel One) for most of my info.
Surprisingly enough....he's in the hands of state folks.....not German federal cops. Schleswig Holstein state legal folks are going to be the ones to examine the EU warrant and if it's within their power to hand him over.
There's roughly a 60-day window now in effect. By EU rules, unless something unusual comes up....they would be expected to hand Puigdemont over.
The threat from Spain in court? They could pile on enough charges to keep Puigdemont in prison for three decades (at least they hint that). By doing that, they would create a permanent front-page story.
My guess is that the local judges will draw this out for the full sixty days and try awful hard to make the Spanish government present its case. In the end, I think Puigdemont will be handed over.
Sunday, March 25, 2018
The Hartz IV Story
N-TV (commercial German news network) brought up an interesting story with statistics this morning....over German welfare (Hartz IV).
Over the past decade, when you carve off all of the numbers....roughly 18.2 million Germans at some point....got welfare benefits in Germany.....some maybe for a couple of weeks....some for the entire period.
It's a fair sized number....out of 82-million in population, that almost one in every four Germans had to consume welfare for some period of time.
This came out of a request that the Linke Party made to the government, and it had to be stated in public.
For kids under fifteen years old....5.5-million were in this group.
Right now for current numbers? It's almost six million Germans on Hartz IV. It's roughly 80-percent which were capable of working but beyond unemployment compensation (4.26 million).
All of this number business leads German leadership to discussions over ways to move more of the crowd to jobs. It's a discussion that goes in circles and rarely shows any results. Right now, the Labor Ministry talks about a group of long-term unemployed (near 900,000 in number) where these people have more than a year of no work. The major factors? It comes around to three curious things:
1. A fair number of the long-term unemployed have no real certifiable skill areas (they missed their chance in their youth, showed no real enthusiasm, or just didn't have the aptitude for the job-craft).
2. Stumbling through a job or two (or three) and getting a bad attitude, with no confidence.
3. Living in areas where there is no real job opportunity.
Being an outsider, I look at the left's political orientation on this and their desire to 'fix' the problem. It would be a great achievement if they could move 300,000 of the long-term unemployed off the current welfare 'trend'. But you would have to coach these people to a great extent....force some of them to move a fair distance (maybe over 500 kilometers)....and entice a number of companies to take greater than average chances on people with attitudes.
I sat last year looking at a business report....talking over a town in Bavaria of 30,000 residents. The town had an unemployment rate of roughly two-percent, and was practically begging for youth-applicants for craft-training jobs, and on any given day....had at least three-hundred jobs that were begging for workers. It would make sense to discuss moving options with people in the northwest of Germany who need some fresh start and find the funds to move them all the way into Bavaria. The odds of being able to talk folks into this? Remote.....Germans just aren't the type for moving and starting a new life.
The odds of this Hartz IV thing being a top three political topic for the next four years? Very high. Most political folks prefer it....instead of migration or immigration, even though it's not fixable and would require vast amounts of money to show any changes.
Over the past decade, when you carve off all of the numbers....roughly 18.2 million Germans at some point....got welfare benefits in Germany.....some maybe for a couple of weeks....some for the entire period.
It's a fair sized number....out of 82-million in population, that almost one in every four Germans had to consume welfare for some period of time.
This came out of a request that the Linke Party made to the government, and it had to be stated in public.
For kids under fifteen years old....5.5-million were in this group.
Right now for current numbers? It's almost six million Germans on Hartz IV. It's roughly 80-percent which were capable of working but beyond unemployment compensation (4.26 million).
All of this number business leads German leadership to discussions over ways to move more of the crowd to jobs. It's a discussion that goes in circles and rarely shows any results. Right now, the Labor Ministry talks about a group of long-term unemployed (near 900,000 in number) where these people have more than a year of no work. The major factors? It comes around to three curious things:
1. A fair number of the long-term unemployed have no real certifiable skill areas (they missed their chance in their youth, showed no real enthusiasm, or just didn't have the aptitude for the job-craft).
2. Stumbling through a job or two (or three) and getting a bad attitude, with no confidence.
3. Living in areas where there is no real job opportunity.
Being an outsider, I look at the left's political orientation on this and their desire to 'fix' the problem. It would be a great achievement if they could move 300,000 of the long-term unemployed off the current welfare 'trend'. But you would have to coach these people to a great extent....force some of them to move a fair distance (maybe over 500 kilometers)....and entice a number of companies to take greater than average chances on people with attitudes.
I sat last year looking at a business report....talking over a town in Bavaria of 30,000 residents. The town had an unemployment rate of roughly two-percent, and was practically begging for youth-applicants for craft-training jobs, and on any given day....had at least three-hundred jobs that were begging for workers. It would make sense to discuss moving options with people in the northwest of Germany who need some fresh start and find the funds to move them all the way into Bavaria. The odds of being able to talk folks into this? Remote.....Germans just aren't the type for moving and starting a new life.
The odds of this Hartz IV thing being a top three political topic for the next four years? Very high. Most political folks prefer it....instead of migration or immigration, even though it's not fixable and would require vast amounts of money to show any changes.
Limits to Migration Story
From an operations perspective, there's a list of at least a hundred problems (maybe going onto two hundred problems) from the 2013-to-present immigration/migration situation. Some involve political chaos....some involve financial poor planning...some involve expectations that were more fantasy than reality.
I noticed that ARD (public TV, Channel One) spoke to one of the issues this morning in the news.
Over the last year....two German cities (Freiburg and Cottbus) called a time-out and said to the federal government....no more migrants are to be shipped into each city (for a period of time). In both cases, they identified various problems that have been created by the 'dumping' procedure of the national government. In simple terms....they just weren't ready to handle the number shipped in.
The issues range from affordable housing....temporary housing...language classes....job training....and crosses into odd problems that existed long prior to this (enough school seats or teachers).
In this episode, the two cities can truthfully say that there was no national or federal plan.....on matching numbers of migrants to what a city could really handle. No one ever stood up in Berlin and said there was a limit. I would imagine if you had gotten to this point in 2014 and said there was a yearly limit involved in the immigration businesses.....journalists and pro-asylum people would have challenged that. My general ballpark guess is that nationally...the max that they could handle per year without creating secondary problems, was in the range of 250,000 to 400,000 a year. This would also take into account that you surveyed them long before allowing entry and this group of 250,000 to 400,000 had high chances of integration, job training, and quickly fitting into the job sphere.
Why only two cities calling a time-out on this issue? I think in both cases....it's the fundamental issue of medium-sized towns with capable mayors and city council members who recognize the various 'lego-like' situations that run the dynamics of their city. They are small enough to ask questions and develop a thinking process. A city like Hamburg or Berlin? No....they'd just keep moving forward and attempt to throw more funding at problems as being the solution.
It's an interesting piece that ARD discusses and would be a great thesis topic to study these two cities and the solutions that they are working out for the future.
I noticed that ARD (public TV, Channel One) spoke to one of the issues this morning in the news.
Over the last year....two German cities (Freiburg and Cottbus) called a time-out and said to the federal government....no more migrants are to be shipped into each city (for a period of time). In both cases, they identified various problems that have been created by the 'dumping' procedure of the national government. In simple terms....they just weren't ready to handle the number shipped in.
The issues range from affordable housing....temporary housing...language classes....job training....and crosses into odd problems that existed long prior to this (enough school seats or teachers).
In this episode, the two cities can truthfully say that there was no national or federal plan.....on matching numbers of migrants to what a city could really handle. No one ever stood up in Berlin and said there was a limit. I would imagine if you had gotten to this point in 2014 and said there was a yearly limit involved in the immigration businesses.....journalists and pro-asylum people would have challenged that. My general ballpark guess is that nationally...the max that they could handle per year without creating secondary problems, was in the range of 250,000 to 400,000 a year. This would also take into account that you surveyed them long before allowing entry and this group of 250,000 to 400,000 had high chances of integration, job training, and quickly fitting into the job sphere.
Why only two cities calling a time-out on this issue? I think in both cases....it's the fundamental issue of medium-sized towns with capable mayors and city council members who recognize the various 'lego-like' situations that run the dynamics of their city. They are small enough to ask questions and develop a thinking process. A city like Hamburg or Berlin? No....they'd just keep moving forward and attempt to throw more funding at problems as being the solution.
It's an interesting piece that ARD discusses and would be a great thesis topic to study these two cities and the solutions that they are working out for the future.
New Book Coming Out
I probably would have predicted it, so it's not a shock.
In this morning's Germany news.....the hype is there over a new book coming out....entitled the Schulz Story. ARD discusses the book which will cover Martin Schulz....the 'fallen' SPD political candidate.
It's amazing to watch the news media basically dump the guy in so little of time, and he's now a forgotten part of history.
ARD did covered part of the book material. Schulz looks at his downfall, and says mostly that he didn't fail politically. He believes that his fall came from bad leadership decisions.
In his mind....when the Greens and FDP failed in the coalition 'game'....and the SPD was called and asked to participate, Schulz says that was his missed moment where he should have resigned rather than form the new coalition. He didn't believe in the coalition being strong, and missed various signs of problems.
Among SPD political folks, there are some lessons to learn, and I think the book might be of interest to journalists. Among voters for the SPD? I'm not sure if he had their full attention. The way that the party shuffled things around to fit him in, and spent the whole summer of 2016 getting him on TV shows for introduction purposes....didn't work as well as people thought.
The speed to which the book is being prepared? That might be a shocker.
In this morning's Germany news.....the hype is there over a new book coming out....entitled the Schulz Story. ARD discusses the book which will cover Martin Schulz....the 'fallen' SPD political candidate.
It's amazing to watch the news media basically dump the guy in so little of time, and he's now a forgotten part of history.
ARD did covered part of the book material. Schulz looks at his downfall, and says mostly that he didn't fail politically. He believes that his fall came from bad leadership decisions.
In his mind....when the Greens and FDP failed in the coalition 'game'....and the SPD was called and asked to participate, Schulz says that was his missed moment where he should have resigned rather than form the new coalition. He didn't believe in the coalition being strong, and missed various signs of problems.
Among SPD political folks, there are some lessons to learn, and I think the book might be of interest to journalists. Among voters for the SPD? I'm not sure if he had their full attention. The way that the party shuffled things around to fit him in, and spent the whole summer of 2016 getting him on TV shows for introduction purposes....didn't work as well as people thought.
The speed to which the book is being prepared? That might be a shocker.
Saturday, March 24, 2018
The Next Migrant Wave
Late in the week, I sat and read through the basic outline of a study conducted by the PEW Research folks. Topic? There is a mass group of people now motivated and ready to leave their homelands in Africa, and migrate to either the US or Europe. Active number? PEW suggests a minimum of 750 million people.
What's going on? I would suggest four basic elements:
1. Lack of stable governments or economical zones throughout most of Africa at this point.
2. No belief by anyone in Africa (over 1.1 billion in population) that things are improving. Some of this has to deal with profits that are occurring and little seen in better living standards.
3. Continual civil war or internal strife going on.
4. Internet connectivity which relays images and convincing words that it's better somewhere else.
If the 750-million did attempt a mass migration? Just trying to imagine this occurring within a five-year period is difficult. Neither the US or Europe could handle even a quarter of that number of migrants.
All of this will put European leadership into a difficult position. Either they accept the migrants....hinder the migrants....or take an active role in halting civil wars in Africa, with a mass infusion of capital to improve living standards.
What's going on? I would suggest four basic elements:
1. Lack of stable governments or economical zones throughout most of Africa at this point.
2. No belief by anyone in Africa (over 1.1 billion in population) that things are improving. Some of this has to deal with profits that are occurring and little seen in better living standards.
3. Continual civil war or internal strife going on.
4. Internet connectivity which relays images and convincing words that it's better somewhere else.
If the 750-million did attempt a mass migration? Just trying to imagine this occurring within a five-year period is difficult. Neither the US or Europe could handle even a quarter of that number of migrants.
All of this will put European leadership into a difficult position. Either they accept the migrants....hinder the migrants....or take an active role in halting civil wars in Africa, with a mass infusion of capital to improve living standards.
SPD's New Solution Deal
There's a curious item on N-TV news this morning here in Germany (they are the commercial news site, or the CNN-like vehicle for Germans). The story? A suggestion by the SPD for the replacement of the Hartz IV-program (welfare for Germans).
The comment came up from the Deputy Party Chief....Ralf Stegner. His concept is a basic solidarity income. You would do something of a project or job for the community, and you'd receive an income in the area of 1,200-odd Euro. The suggestion was 'cleaning' of parks.....which today has people hired and making a real income. Nothing was spoken over the dismissal of the park clean-up crew dismissal but you'd have to assume that their services would no longer be required.
The curious thing is that if you matched up the actual people doing the current work now.....to the basic solidarity income people....there's a pay-decrease for the same amount of work done currently.
If you go by the article from N-TV.....this SPD Party idea would extend out to 150,000 long-term unemployed people and comprise of roughly four billion Euro....to run the whole program.
How to pay for it? Well....there's talk of more property tax....higher taxes for the rich, and looking for practical ways of taxing large-scale inheritance situations. There's also this idea of higher taxes on bonus pay for managers.
I sat looking at the ways that you'd come up with the four billion and just kinda laughed. The higher tax on bonus pay? This would have to be figured into the product value and cost of production.....so you'd inflate your product enough to cover the extra taxes involved. This would mean lesser competition, and eventually make it tougher to make profits.
If all of this 'repair' would actually dissolve poverty and lead onto fewer people existing in this category....it might be worth the effort. But no one has ever shown that it leads onto that expectation.
My general feeling of the SPD plan? If I were a working-class German....I'd be disappointed at the solution suggested and shaking my head over the party.
The comment came up from the Deputy Party Chief....Ralf Stegner. His concept is a basic solidarity income. You would do something of a project or job for the community, and you'd receive an income in the area of 1,200-odd Euro. The suggestion was 'cleaning' of parks.....which today has people hired and making a real income. Nothing was spoken over the dismissal of the park clean-up crew dismissal but you'd have to assume that their services would no longer be required.
The curious thing is that if you matched up the actual people doing the current work now.....to the basic solidarity income people....there's a pay-decrease for the same amount of work done currently.
If you go by the article from N-TV.....this SPD Party idea would extend out to 150,000 long-term unemployed people and comprise of roughly four billion Euro....to run the whole program.
How to pay for it? Well....there's talk of more property tax....higher taxes for the rich, and looking for practical ways of taxing large-scale inheritance situations. There's also this idea of higher taxes on bonus pay for managers.
I sat looking at the ways that you'd come up with the four billion and just kinda laughed. The higher tax on bonus pay? This would have to be figured into the product value and cost of production.....so you'd inflate your product enough to cover the extra taxes involved. This would mean lesser competition, and eventually make it tougher to make profits.
If all of this 'repair' would actually dissolve poverty and lead onto fewer people existing in this category....it might be worth the effort. But no one has ever shown that it leads onto that expectation.
My general feeling of the SPD plan? If I were a working-class German....I'd be disappointed at the solution suggested and shaking my head over the party.
A Riot?
I tend to read crime news around Germany a good bit, and especially concerning Wiesbaden (my region). So this morning, I came upon this crime story of a 'riot', and read intently.
It was one of those stories that headlined the piece "Teenagers Riot in Parking Lot".
The basic story here....three teens around 9:45 PM (about two hours after dark), had arrived at some grocery....taken a shopping cart or two and were doing 'wheelies' around the parking lot of the grocery. They knocked over a can or two....disturbed the smokers 'corner' and dumped the ashtray that they flick their ashes into.
Cops got called.
Then I observed the name of the grocery and neighborhood.....well....yeah, it's my local grocery, about 300 ft away from my front door (two minute walk). It's the place where I go quietly for a cup of coffee and a slice of cheesecake (don't tell the wife).
"Riot"?
The crime report went into various details.....the teens scattered the minute that the cop car arrived. Basic description? In hoodies. Yeah.....in hoodies. Two were young males (figured around 18), and one was a female (figured around 18).
A riot? At best, they probably had a beer or two, and were just playing around......but everyone these days is so intent on the worst case possible.....that they would describe this as some riot.
It was one of those stories that headlined the piece "Teenagers Riot in Parking Lot".
The basic story here....three teens around 9:45 PM (about two hours after dark), had arrived at some grocery....taken a shopping cart or two and were doing 'wheelies' around the parking lot of the grocery. They knocked over a can or two....disturbed the smokers 'corner' and dumped the ashtray that they flick their ashes into.
Cops got called.
Then I observed the name of the grocery and neighborhood.....well....yeah, it's my local grocery, about 300 ft away from my front door (two minute walk). It's the place where I go quietly for a cup of coffee and a slice of cheesecake (don't tell the wife).
"Riot"?
The crime report went into various details.....the teens scattered the minute that the cop car arrived. Basic description? In hoodies. Yeah.....in hoodies. Two were young males (figured around 18), and one was a female (figured around 18).
A riot? At best, they probably had a beer or two, and were just playing around......but everyone these days is so intent on the worst case possible.....that they would describe this as some riot.
Friday, March 23, 2018
The Applications Story
ARD (public TV, Channel One in Germany) came up with a news item today which relates an ongoing issue with migrants in Germany and their applications for visas.
Once you enter Germany and apply for immigration or the visa.....there is a fair amount of paperwork. Questions are asked.....your identity needs to be verified, and your case has to be worked. It's done by one single government agency out of Nuremberg.
There have been various reports from news groups over the past three years which talked about the various rates of 'passing' or 'failing'. At some point in 2016, I can recall seeing a passing rate for Iraqis and Syrians of around 90-to-95 percent. For other nationalities.....it was less. In the case of Tunisians for that year, the news folks talked of a 90-to-95 percent failure rate.
For the most part, this Nuremberg group has a checklist and they evaluate everything you write into the application, and there is an end-phase....you pass or fail. If you fail....there is some bit of time where you could file an appeal.
So ARD talked about this appeal business today. Out of every ten cases determined as a failure....nine of them will end up as appeals.
Based on the current rate....40-percent of these cases have been 'corrected' by the judges. Course, that means that 60-percent of the cases deemeded failed applications....stay failed applications. According to ARD, if you use just Syrian and Afghan cases only.....it's a very high rate of failed applications that are corrected.
Why? The story never discusses that part of the episode.
I sat and looked at the story, coming to this odd conclusion. There are probably over 300 questions that I would be asking about this 'correction' activity by the German court system. Did the Nuremberg visa application group have a poor process? Are untrained people making the decisions? Is there a higher rate of court corrections with particular judges? Yet, there's really not much to explain why 40-percent of failed applicants have had their situations reversed.
You would almost get the impression that the Nuremberg agency ought to just invite the judges to be the full-time reviewer of the applications.
I'm hoping that some broad-minded journalists will sit and ask more questions over the story, but I have my doubts.
Once you enter Germany and apply for immigration or the visa.....there is a fair amount of paperwork. Questions are asked.....your identity needs to be verified, and your case has to be worked. It's done by one single government agency out of Nuremberg.
There have been various reports from news groups over the past three years which talked about the various rates of 'passing' or 'failing'. At some point in 2016, I can recall seeing a passing rate for Iraqis and Syrians of around 90-to-95 percent. For other nationalities.....it was less. In the case of Tunisians for that year, the news folks talked of a 90-to-95 percent failure rate.
For the most part, this Nuremberg group has a checklist and they evaluate everything you write into the application, and there is an end-phase....you pass or fail. If you fail....there is some bit of time where you could file an appeal.
So ARD talked about this appeal business today. Out of every ten cases determined as a failure....nine of them will end up as appeals.
Based on the current rate....40-percent of these cases have been 'corrected' by the judges. Course, that means that 60-percent of the cases deemeded failed applications....stay failed applications. According to ARD, if you use just Syrian and Afghan cases only.....it's a very high rate of failed applications that are corrected.
Why? The story never discusses that part of the episode.
I sat and looked at the story, coming to this odd conclusion. There are probably over 300 questions that I would be asking about this 'correction' activity by the German court system. Did the Nuremberg visa application group have a poor process? Are untrained people making the decisions? Is there a higher rate of court corrections with particular judges? Yet, there's really not much to explain why 40-percent of failed applicants have had their situations reversed.
You would almost get the impression that the Nuremberg agency ought to just invite the judges to be the full-time reviewer of the applications.
I'm hoping that some broad-minded journalists will sit and ask more questions over the story, but I have my doubts.
The Bahn Story
There is a long piece on ARD (public TV, Channel One, in Germany) with heavy criticism of the Bahn (the railway service in Germany) today.
You can walk up to a hundred Germans and get a hundred opinions over the Bahn. People regularly use it. People will hype its successes.....it's failures, and it's limitations. I would take a guess that about a third of Germans have used rail services beyond the country and will report on better or worse railway systems that exist in Europe, or throughout the world.
As ARD does chat about what they consider the better railway systems (Japan, Switzerland, and China)....it's worth a read.
Punctuality? If you stand around the Mainz or Wiesbaden station.....what you tend to observe are long-distance trains which might run three to ten minutes late....maybe a quarter of the time. I got on a train once that was supposed to deliver me from the Frankfurt Airport to Kaiserslautern in about 90 minutes (I could have driven it in 60 minutes). The trip....because of delayed and missed connections....turned into a four-hour journey (240 minutes). I wouldn't say it was normal, but you have to expect this with the use of the railway.
A lot of this revolves around construction projects, renovation delays, bureaucratic planning, and just plain bad luck.
Why everyone hypes the Swiss model? Some doe credit the timetable concept that came in the 1980s....it stipulates that the trains run the same way every hour in the stations.
Another plus-up for the Swiss is money put into stations....to make them look appealing, modern, and up-to-date.
Course, you'd have to review the ticket cost and note that the Swiss pay slightly more.
My 'dream' railway is the one that the Dutch run, and the best station to discuss or admire is the one at the Dan Haag. You can go to any part of the city and admire the connectivity, and long-range planning. Even as a tourist, it takes less than five minutes to grasp the network and the ticket-structure.
Does the Bahn deserve the criticism? I always compare it against AMTRAK and the DC Metro system....which seems to me to make the Bahn a much more appealing system. Other than ageing stations....I don't really dump much of criticism on the Bahn network. I will admit....the AC system on ICE trains barely functions in the summer, and the toilets on almost all trains today seem to be broke half the time. But overall all? It works.
You can walk up to a hundred Germans and get a hundred opinions over the Bahn. People regularly use it. People will hype its successes.....it's failures, and it's limitations. I would take a guess that about a third of Germans have used rail services beyond the country and will report on better or worse railway systems that exist in Europe, or throughout the world.
As ARD does chat about what they consider the better railway systems (Japan, Switzerland, and China)....it's worth a read.
Punctuality? If you stand around the Mainz or Wiesbaden station.....what you tend to observe are long-distance trains which might run three to ten minutes late....maybe a quarter of the time. I got on a train once that was supposed to deliver me from the Frankfurt Airport to Kaiserslautern in about 90 minutes (I could have driven it in 60 minutes). The trip....because of delayed and missed connections....turned into a four-hour journey (240 minutes). I wouldn't say it was normal, but you have to expect this with the use of the railway.
A lot of this revolves around construction projects, renovation delays, bureaucratic planning, and just plain bad luck.
Why everyone hypes the Swiss model? Some doe credit the timetable concept that came in the 1980s....it stipulates that the trains run the same way every hour in the stations.
Another plus-up for the Swiss is money put into stations....to make them look appealing, modern, and up-to-date.
Course, you'd have to review the ticket cost and note that the Swiss pay slightly more.
My 'dream' railway is the one that the Dutch run, and the best station to discuss or admire is the one at the Dan Haag. You can go to any part of the city and admire the connectivity, and long-range planning. Even as a tourist, it takes less than five minutes to grasp the network and the ticket-structure.
Does the Bahn deserve the criticism? I always compare it against AMTRAK and the DC Metro system....which seems to me to make the Bahn a much more appealing system. Other than ageing stations....I don't really dump much of criticism on the Bahn network. I will admit....the AC system on ICE trains barely functions in the summer, and the toilets on almost all trains today seem to be broke half the time. But overall all? It works.
Thursday, March 22, 2018
German Facebook News
I sat last night.....watching the 8 PM ARD (public TV, Channel One) national news. It's around day four of this BIG Facebook business, with Cambridge Analysis, and the story that private data was used to help Trump win. Yes, almost 17 months after the election....somehow, this has become BIG news.
So as the ARD journalists tried to tell the story, they eventually came to some 'conclusion' that it was illegal and broke some law. To be honest, I also watched a France-24 journalist attempt the same conclusion.
What law? What law was broken?
There is a lot of hype within Germany at this point.....chatter by the Greens and Linke Party of a major investigation. The British are talking about a major investigation. Everyone wants to determine the law broken, and says some were broken. But what law?
It's almost a comedy in slow motion. Massive anger that by social media use....they may have quietly helped Trump to beat Hillary. All this time....the fake news angle, then you had the Russian angle, and then there were fake votes angle.....so now you have to sit and watch people get frustrated over Facebook.
By the end of 2018, I expect everyone in Germany to agree....there is no law to prevent using personal data from social media, and they will work to invent one. Then the social media giants will all freak out because their only real way of profit? It's via selling of customer data.
By spring of 2019....to survive into the future via social media....the social media companies will finally start to charge people some monthly or yearly fee.
So as the ARD journalists tried to tell the story, they eventually came to some 'conclusion' that it was illegal and broke some law. To be honest, I also watched a France-24 journalist attempt the same conclusion.
What law? What law was broken?
There is a lot of hype within Germany at this point.....chatter by the Greens and Linke Party of a major investigation. The British are talking about a major investigation. Everyone wants to determine the law broken, and says some were broken. But what law?
It's almost a comedy in slow motion. Massive anger that by social media use....they may have quietly helped Trump to beat Hillary. All this time....the fake news angle, then you had the Russian angle, and then there were fake votes angle.....so now you have to sit and watch people get frustrated over Facebook.
By the end of 2018, I expect everyone in Germany to agree....there is no law to prevent using personal data from social media, and they will work to invent one. Then the social media giants will all freak out because their only real way of profit? It's via selling of customer data.
By spring of 2019....to survive into the future via social media....the social media companies will finally start to charge people some monthly or yearly fee.
Freiburg Murder Case Closes with Conviction
Several months ago, I essayed the murder of a German nurse down in Freiburg (southern Germany), and the eventual capture of a Afghan 'young-guy' who was felt to be the culprit. The case ran into various unusual turns (he's in his mid-20s instead of the 17 that he claims, and he already had one vicious assault episode in Greece).
Well....NTV reports this morning here in Germany.....that the Afghan migrant involved in the episode....has been sentenced to the maximum that the court could hand out. Life imprisonment. Along with that, they wrote the addition of preventive detention. That means that they consider him to be an active threat, and he probably won't be at a relaxed prison-type facility.
The troublesome part of this story is that you can read over various aspects from the German press, and the basic story of this young guy is that he's not really emotionally in control of himself, and my general impression is that he's got enough mental problems that mandate some permanent control. This should have been recognized by the Greek authorities on the first assault that he did.
As for wrapping up the mess and ending what has been a year-long saga? To some degree yes.....but then you start to wonder, how many more mentally unstable characters exist like this?
As for a script for a five-star movie? It's probably perfect for such a movie but I don't see any German production company doing this because it really makes the German immigration theme look fairly negative and it'll be slammed as anti-migrant.
Well....NTV reports this morning here in Germany.....that the Afghan migrant involved in the episode....has been sentenced to the maximum that the court could hand out. Life imprisonment. Along with that, they wrote the addition of preventive detention. That means that they consider him to be an active threat, and he probably won't be at a relaxed prison-type facility.
The troublesome part of this story is that you can read over various aspects from the German press, and the basic story of this young guy is that he's not really emotionally in control of himself, and my general impression is that he's got enough mental problems that mandate some permanent control. This should have been recognized by the Greek authorities on the first assault that he did.
As for wrapping up the mess and ending what has been a year-long saga? To some degree yes.....but then you start to wonder, how many more mentally unstable characters exist like this?
As for a script for a five-star movie? It's probably perfect for such a movie but I don't see any German production company doing this because it really makes the German immigration theme look fairly negative and it'll be slammed as anti-migrant.
Fake Marriage Story
German cops staged a big 'round-up' yesterday and it's a pretty strange criminal proceeding that is underway. ARD (public German TV, Channel One) covered the story.
Altogether, about a thousand German and Czech cops were sent out to smash some kind of 'mafia' operation that built to cover fake marriages and moonlighting jobs.
At the conclusion....some folks were arrested. Various sources differ on the number....some say a dozen....some claim up to fifty or sixty people.
What appears to have gone on....is some mafia group figured out a way of resourcing residence permits, with the smuggler crowd providing people with cash, and finding the right Czech, Romanian or Bulgarian women to marry. I don't get the impression that this led to German women in the middle.
The mafia linchpin region? Apparently here in the Rhine-Main area.
The amount paid for the fake marriage? It appears that this was getting up into the five-digit range. Cops even speculate that several hundred fake marriages were the product out of this.
Added to this was the accusation of illegal employees hired for construction jobs. At some point, the cops even suggest that six million euros were not paid on social security requirements.
What happens now? Basically a regroup. Another mafia group will survey what went wrong....identify the repair, and proceed on. In a year....some reports will come up over new fake marriages and it'll require another massive investigation.
My suggestion....to dump both the smuggler and mafia out of the situation....set up a one-year visa that you pay a significant amount of money into (the same that the smuggler and mafia would have taken) to have a legit one-year visa. Want to renew it for the 2nd year....no crimes, and half of the amount that you paid before. Repeat for year three, and if the guy has been a hard worker and no crime angle....then make it a free visa by the fourth year.
Altogether, about a thousand German and Czech cops were sent out to smash some kind of 'mafia' operation that built to cover fake marriages and moonlighting jobs.
At the conclusion....some folks were arrested. Various sources differ on the number....some say a dozen....some claim up to fifty or sixty people.
What appears to have gone on....is some mafia group figured out a way of resourcing residence permits, with the smuggler crowd providing people with cash, and finding the right Czech, Romanian or Bulgarian women to marry. I don't get the impression that this led to German women in the middle.
The mafia linchpin region? Apparently here in the Rhine-Main area.
The amount paid for the fake marriage? It appears that this was getting up into the five-digit range. Cops even speculate that several hundred fake marriages were the product out of this.
Added to this was the accusation of illegal employees hired for construction jobs. At some point, the cops even suggest that six million euros were not paid on social security requirements.
What happens now? Basically a regroup. Another mafia group will survey what went wrong....identify the repair, and proceed on. In a year....some reports will come up over new fake marriages and it'll require another massive investigation.
My suggestion....to dump both the smuggler and mafia out of the situation....set up a one-year visa that you pay a significant amount of money into (the same that the smuggler and mafia would have taken) to have a legit one-year visa. Want to renew it for the 2nd year....no crimes, and half of the amount that you paid before. Repeat for year three, and if the guy has been a hard worker and no crime angle....then make it a free visa by the fourth year.
Wednesday, March 21, 2018
Curious French Story
It's a short story at this point and leads onto a number of questions. ARD (public TV, Channel One) picked it up yesterday and laid out the basic facts.
Back in 2007 in France....the election was heating for for Nicolas Sarkozy. His campaign was open for donations. Along came Libyan leader....Muammar al-Gaddafi. Some money was laid on the table for Sarkozy. Nothing was really clear about the amount.....some people suggest 50 million Euro. The funding ceiling at that point in time? 21 million Euro. Along the way, there are some rules that would generally prevent money from outside of France to come into an election like this.
The cops? They brought Sarkozy in for a brief Q and A on Monday and want more details. Other than this.....nothing much else.
The 2007 election? Sarkozy won....barely....53-percent to 47-percent.
If the money did come.....it probably did help to some degree. Was it fifty million Euro? Unknown.
What did Gaddafi want in return? No one says much. If Gaddafi figured that Sarkozy was at some weak point and that some deal could be made with the campaign contribution....then fifty million would have been a very cheap way to get some inside position for Libya on business (oil or natural gas, I would assume).
For the record Sarkozy lasted five years, and then was soundly beaten in 2012 (the year after Gaddafi was taken down from power and executed). Francois Hollande beat Sarkozy by roughly four points....so it was fairly close.
Why any of this comes up eleven years after the event? That's the part that doesn't really explain much. One could imagine several insiders knowing about the suggested 50 million Euro donation, and one of them finally told the story to the news media in the last six months.
Maybe the folks in Libya have dug through financial records and found the missing 50-million Euro note about Sarkozy (wanting it back).
The investigation? It may go nowhere. Or it might entangle Sarkozy or one of his political handlers.
Back in 2007 in France....the election was heating for for Nicolas Sarkozy. His campaign was open for donations. Along came Libyan leader....Muammar al-Gaddafi. Some money was laid on the table for Sarkozy. Nothing was really clear about the amount.....some people suggest 50 million Euro. The funding ceiling at that point in time? 21 million Euro. Along the way, there are some rules that would generally prevent money from outside of France to come into an election like this.
The cops? They brought Sarkozy in for a brief Q and A on Monday and want more details. Other than this.....nothing much else.
The 2007 election? Sarkozy won....barely....53-percent to 47-percent.
If the money did come.....it probably did help to some degree. Was it fifty million Euro? Unknown.
What did Gaddafi want in return? No one says much. If Gaddafi figured that Sarkozy was at some weak point and that some deal could be made with the campaign contribution....then fifty million would have been a very cheap way to get some inside position for Libya on business (oil or natural gas, I would assume).
For the record Sarkozy lasted five years, and then was soundly beaten in 2012 (the year after Gaddafi was taken down from power and executed). Francois Hollande beat Sarkozy by roughly four points....so it was fairly close.
Why any of this comes up eleven years after the event? That's the part that doesn't really explain much. One could imagine several insiders knowing about the suggested 50 million Euro donation, and one of them finally told the story to the news media in the last six months.
Maybe the folks in Libya have dug through financial records and found the missing 50-million Euro note about Sarkozy (wanting it back).
The investigation? It may go nowhere. Or it might entangle Sarkozy or one of his political handlers.
The Gun Story
It's a short seven-line story which I noted in N-TV News today (our German commercial news media)....on weapons in Germany.
The Green Party came up in the Bundestag....apparently having some inside information.....making a request that the German cops report via the National Arms Register.....about guns missing or stolen.
It's not typically something that would come up.
At the conclusion of January....the database showed a total of 24,531 guns which were either lost or stolen. That's over a one-year period.
The only significant factor in the story is that it's a 18-percent increase over the previous year.....but beyond that? No.
So on these cop reports (remember how Germans are fanatical about data collection)....they actually two categories: lost, and stolen.
The bulk of these guns that disappeared.....were simply noted as 'lost' (19,282). The rest (5,249) were absolutely stolen.
The Greens are naturally disturbed by this whole thing and want something done about this.
So, I sat and thought about this whole thing. There's five observations or funny things about this whole story.
1. Any American or Brit who has ever encountered a German....knows that they are a bit obsessive and particular about their property. They don't lose property. You can go and ask Henz about the shovels in his basement, and he'll respond that he has four....telling you the year each was bought and why each is for a different purpose. You can ask Greta about the number of pots in the kitchen, and she'll tell you the precise number. So I'm having a problem believing the simple story of 'lost' guns.
2. Each hunter or gun-owner must have a lockable case within the house for his weapons. Each one that he owns.....has to be maintained in that case unless he goes off with it to a hunt or a shooting range. So losing guns? It's just not likely.
3. A fair number of guys get up into their 70s, and my suspicion is that the wife or kids reach some stage where they really don't trust the old guy to have guns around. So they quietly take the key.....liberate the guns.....burying them somewhere, and a month or even a year later....the old guy is opening up the case....expecting seven hunting rifles (his intent was the yearly cleaning) and find none, and report it as such.
4. A number of German gun-owners are collectors of antique type weapons. While their use is still possible as a weapon....their value is as some collection piece. I have another suspicion that various guys are getting offers on their big collectible items from a guy who has no license....he just wants to own a 120-year-old rifle...without all the paperwork, stress, etc. So the original guy simply says he lost the gun. The new owner has a private display in his 'man-cave' and proudly talks of some 1890s American rifle.
5. Finally, I come to the odd problem of hunts in Germany.....where a whole club will come out.....do a day of hunting in some national range area. They finish the day displaying the animals hunted, and toast each off with a drink, or two, or three. It is conceivable that a couple of guys could be sitting at some camp area and the non-drinker comes up to retrieve these guys for their ride home.....and some gun gets left there in the woods by a tree. I know.....it would be odd, but there always seems to be a drink or two at the conclusion of these hunts.
The sad thing here is that the Greens will force this issue onto the next level. The guy with the lost gun will be pushed to appear in front of some judge to swear on the events, and then someone will suggest that if you lost one gun.....you should be permanently denied the ability to own any guns. Or you could see fines set for folks.....of a thousand Euro for each lost weapon.
Two years ago, I stood at the Frankfurt Airport, next to the open line of folks flying down to Namibia over-night. Here were six to eight German hunters....with their weapon cases, and going through the police check-out point with the guns and paperwork noted.....being carried down for some safari hunt. I would assume they'd bring their guns back. But you'd have to wonder.....with all the hassle involved, if you were a regular once a year traveler to Namibia....why bring the gun back? If this were me, I'd travel back....six months later report the gun just plain 'missing', and avoid all the hassle involved by just keeping my hunting weapon in Namibia with some hunting lodge.
The Green Party came up in the Bundestag....apparently having some inside information.....making a request that the German cops report via the National Arms Register.....about guns missing or stolen.
It's not typically something that would come up.
At the conclusion of January....the database showed a total of 24,531 guns which were either lost or stolen. That's over a one-year period.
The only significant factor in the story is that it's a 18-percent increase over the previous year.....but beyond that? No.
So on these cop reports (remember how Germans are fanatical about data collection)....they actually two categories: lost, and stolen.
The bulk of these guns that disappeared.....were simply noted as 'lost' (19,282). The rest (5,249) were absolutely stolen.
The Greens are naturally disturbed by this whole thing and want something done about this.
So, I sat and thought about this whole thing. There's five observations or funny things about this whole story.
1. Any American or Brit who has ever encountered a German....knows that they are a bit obsessive and particular about their property. They don't lose property. You can go and ask Henz about the shovels in his basement, and he'll respond that he has four....telling you the year each was bought and why each is for a different purpose. You can ask Greta about the number of pots in the kitchen, and she'll tell you the precise number. So I'm having a problem believing the simple story of 'lost' guns.
2. Each hunter or gun-owner must have a lockable case within the house for his weapons. Each one that he owns.....has to be maintained in that case unless he goes off with it to a hunt or a shooting range. So losing guns? It's just not likely.
3. A fair number of guys get up into their 70s, and my suspicion is that the wife or kids reach some stage where they really don't trust the old guy to have guns around. So they quietly take the key.....liberate the guns.....burying them somewhere, and a month or even a year later....the old guy is opening up the case....expecting seven hunting rifles (his intent was the yearly cleaning) and find none, and report it as such.
4. A number of German gun-owners are collectors of antique type weapons. While their use is still possible as a weapon....their value is as some collection piece. I have another suspicion that various guys are getting offers on their big collectible items from a guy who has no license....he just wants to own a 120-year-old rifle...without all the paperwork, stress, etc. So the original guy simply says he lost the gun. The new owner has a private display in his 'man-cave' and proudly talks of some 1890s American rifle.
5. Finally, I come to the odd problem of hunts in Germany.....where a whole club will come out.....do a day of hunting in some national range area. They finish the day displaying the animals hunted, and toast each off with a drink, or two, or three. It is conceivable that a couple of guys could be sitting at some camp area and the non-drinker comes up to retrieve these guys for their ride home.....and some gun gets left there in the woods by a tree. I know.....it would be odd, but there always seems to be a drink or two at the conclusion of these hunts.
The sad thing here is that the Greens will force this issue onto the next level. The guy with the lost gun will be pushed to appear in front of some judge to swear on the events, and then someone will suggest that if you lost one gun.....you should be permanently denied the ability to own any guns. Or you could see fines set for folks.....of a thousand Euro for each lost weapon.
Two years ago, I stood at the Frankfurt Airport, next to the open line of folks flying down to Namibia over-night. Here were six to eight German hunters....with their weapon cases, and going through the police check-out point with the guns and paperwork noted.....being carried down for some safari hunt. I would assume they'd bring their guns back. But you'd have to wonder.....with all the hassle involved, if you were a regular once a year traveler to Namibia....why bring the gun back? If this were me, I'd travel back....six months later report the gun just plain 'missing', and avoid all the hassle involved by just keeping my hunting weapon in Namibia with some hunting lodge.
Ulm Story
A short piece came up via ARD (Channel One, public TV) this morning. After a long talk and various debates....NATO came up and finally recommended the location of the new logistical headquarters 'hub'....Ulm, Germany. Ulm? If you drew a straight line from Stuttgart to Munich....it's about halfway. Driving-wise, it's about an hour southeast of Stuttgart.
There were two German locations in the discussion. One was up in the NW of Germany, near Bonn. Politically, folks were hyped and pushing for that site.
Ulm already a German Army post there and it'll simply take a couple of acres to build this complex and then draw in a couple hundred NATO folks to be part of this headquarters.
As for the necessity of another headquarters? Well....some folks would say that logistically.....virtually every member of NATO has some problems going on. So the idea is sitting there....if you just had a headquarters to manage things....it'd all get fixed. Yeah, it's a weak solution but everyone agreed on it. The one positive? Germany basically agreed to pay for most of the structure. You can figure at least 100 million Euro minimum.....maybe even going up to 400 million, to get the whole thing built and operational.
In three years, as the structure is completed and ready to go.....some US Army logistics officers are going to get some 'gold-ticket' assignment to Ulm for three years of duty, and a chance to travel over Bavaria.....ski.....hike....and enjoy Octoberfest in a personal way.
Oh, and the final plus-up here? Well....all the money spent on this by the Germans.....goes toward that 2-percent goal which they have failed at for more than a decade.
There were two German locations in the discussion. One was up in the NW of Germany, near Bonn. Politically, folks were hyped and pushing for that site.
Ulm already a German Army post there and it'll simply take a couple of acres to build this complex and then draw in a couple hundred NATO folks to be part of this headquarters.
As for the necessity of another headquarters? Well....some folks would say that logistically.....virtually every member of NATO has some problems going on. So the idea is sitting there....if you just had a headquarters to manage things....it'd all get fixed. Yeah, it's a weak solution but everyone agreed on it. The one positive? Germany basically agreed to pay for most of the structure. You can figure at least 100 million Euro minimum.....maybe even going up to 400 million, to get the whole thing built and operational.
In three years, as the structure is completed and ready to go.....some US Army logistics officers are going to get some 'gold-ticket' assignment to Ulm for three years of duty, and a chance to travel over Bavaria.....ski.....hike....and enjoy Octoberfest in a personal way.
Oh, and the final plus-up here? Well....all the money spent on this by the Germans.....goes toward that 2-percent goal which they have failed at for more than a decade.
School Story
I noticed short news piece from Focus this morning.....talking over an attack in the Baden-Wurttemberg region.
Within a grade-school operation, down near Freiburg.....a German teacher got into some type of dispute with a kid in the class (press says the kid is seven years old ). Kid felt the teacher showed disrespect and then pulled a knife on the teacher. Initial report says that the teacher is injured.....probably a minor cut, but enough that it required medical attention.
Naturally most folks would freak out and fail to read the rest of this story. It's an odd thing.....the knife doesn't belong to the kid.....nor did the kid bring the knife to school. The knife is apparently school property and used in some structure of the class atmosphere. I'm guessing it's there to cut items (maybe apples) for school activities.
In my mind.....this event though....causes folks to ask more questions and wondering if schools in German are 'safe'. The answer is.....yes, they are safe. But to prevent public anxiety, you can anticipate some effort to psychologically analyze kids and label or categorize kids in some fashion. The 'aggressive' types will be noted and teachers will know as each year comes with different kids.....three or four kids in the group are potential problems.
As for knives remaining in schools? Oh, I'll bet within a month....most schools have removed knives from the open structure, and they are only held by one single teacher.
Within a grade-school operation, down near Freiburg.....a German teacher got into some type of dispute with a kid in the class (press says the kid is seven years old ). Kid felt the teacher showed disrespect and then pulled a knife on the teacher. Initial report says that the teacher is injured.....probably a minor cut, but enough that it required medical attention.
Naturally most folks would freak out and fail to read the rest of this story. It's an odd thing.....the knife doesn't belong to the kid.....nor did the kid bring the knife to school. The knife is apparently school property and used in some structure of the class atmosphere. I'm guessing it's there to cut items (maybe apples) for school activities.
In my mind.....this event though....causes folks to ask more questions and wondering if schools in German are 'safe'. The answer is.....yes, they are safe. But to prevent public anxiety, you can anticipate some effort to psychologically analyze kids and label or categorize kids in some fashion. The 'aggressive' types will be noted and teachers will know as each year comes with different kids.....three or four kids in the group are potential problems.
As for knives remaining in schools? Oh, I'll bet within a month....most schools have removed knives from the open structure, and they are only held by one single teacher.
Tuesday, March 20, 2018
Tariff Game to Be Played?
For a number of days, there's been hyped news in Germany and a lot of political commentary over the tariff business with President Trump. There's a high-level German minister in DC this week to chat over the topic and I anticipate four things occurring out of this 'mess'.
1. Once it starts, the counter-reaction will occur, and various tariffs will occur. It's not a trade embargo....it's simply tariff attached which pumps up the cost factor. So it's likely when I walk into my local grocery (REAL, pronounced RE-al) and see pop-tarts up there for some outrageous amount of 4.9 Euro (in reality $5.9) BEFORE the whole tariff deal.....it'll now likely go to 5.40 ($6.4)....for a box of four sets of pop-tarts. People will still buy it, because it's the only product like that. Regular Germans don't eat them....so it'll be a special treat situation.
2. Germans will find their specialized steel still being imported into the US for the time-being....but six to twelve months down the line.....some US steel-makers will arrive and say they can make the same type steel product.....for 25-percent less. At that point, import of German steel will start to decrease. For 90 days, I see nothing really changing attitudes. It's one year out that you need to worry about things.
3. The Germans want this resolved, and they are going to find Trump standing there and asking where their EU representative is....because he doesn't want to talk to anyone without any real power. At that point (probably even with Pete Altmaier visiting this week)....the new reality will occur that Germany can't repair their trade issue here, without EU work or participation.
4. All of this.....leads onto one single topic....a new TTIP. Yep, and if you go back to the fall of 2016 and remember how it failed with the Obama Administration and the EU team.....well, you have to wonder how the Germans feel now.
For the EU? The non-German folks can drag this out and really make Germany stressed.
In the first month or two of the Trump administration....there was this face-to-face meeting between Merkel and Trump. Trump wanted to talk trade.....Merkel gave the push-back and said that that the EU handles all trade talk....so, no deal.
In this case, I think Trump is posed for a long-term deal, and will refuse to engage with any German on trade.....telling them that only the EU can handle their trade issues, and they'd best go get them enthusiastic. The Germans will then realize that nationally....they don't run their trade business anymore, and this is something they'd never really thought about.
Somewhere in the middle of 2019....I expect Team-Trump and the EU trade folks will sit down and try to rebuild TTIP. The Germans will be amazed at the lack of willingness on the EU side and some jobs will be lost by that point in this little tariff 'war'.
1. Once it starts, the counter-reaction will occur, and various tariffs will occur. It's not a trade embargo....it's simply tariff attached which pumps up the cost factor. So it's likely when I walk into my local grocery (REAL, pronounced RE-al) and see pop-tarts up there for some outrageous amount of 4.9 Euro (in reality $5.9) BEFORE the whole tariff deal.....it'll now likely go to 5.40 ($6.4)....for a box of four sets of pop-tarts. People will still buy it, because it's the only product like that. Regular Germans don't eat them....so it'll be a special treat situation.
2. Germans will find their specialized steel still being imported into the US for the time-being....but six to twelve months down the line.....some US steel-makers will arrive and say they can make the same type steel product.....for 25-percent less. At that point, import of German steel will start to decrease. For 90 days, I see nothing really changing attitudes. It's one year out that you need to worry about things.
3. The Germans want this resolved, and they are going to find Trump standing there and asking where their EU representative is....because he doesn't want to talk to anyone without any real power. At that point (probably even with Pete Altmaier visiting this week)....the new reality will occur that Germany can't repair their trade issue here, without EU work or participation.
4. All of this.....leads onto one single topic....a new TTIP. Yep, and if you go back to the fall of 2016 and remember how it failed with the Obama Administration and the EU team.....well, you have to wonder how the Germans feel now.
For the EU? The non-German folks can drag this out and really make Germany stressed.
In the first month or two of the Trump administration....there was this face-to-face meeting between Merkel and Trump. Trump wanted to talk trade.....Merkel gave the push-back and said that that the EU handles all trade talk....so, no deal.
In this case, I think Trump is posed for a long-term deal, and will refuse to engage with any German on trade.....telling them that only the EU can handle their trade issues, and they'd best go get them enthusiastic. The Germans will then realize that nationally....they don't run their trade business anymore, and this is something they'd never really thought about.
Somewhere in the middle of 2019....I expect Team-Trump and the EU trade folks will sit down and try to rebuild TTIP. The Germans will be amazed at the lack of willingness on the EU side and some jobs will be lost by that point in this little tariff 'war'.
My View on Universal Income
I read through a number of articles and chat yesterday on the German topic of Hartz IV (the German welfare system). Surprisingly enough....it's moved from a top ten position....to probably topic number one in the past month.
Some people sense that a period of change is going to arrive in 2019....as a lot of discussions are held this year, and criticism will continue to mount.
The solution talked about? Universal Income.
The way this would work? In draft form, and based on at least twenty people describing their vision....I will offer my vision of how the Germans will implement it.
If you are on welfare status today....they'd slip you over tomorrow to Universal Income. Your monthly 'allowance' would go to roughy to 1,600 Euro. That would be there to cover rent, utilities, health care insurance, cellphone, IP service, car insurance, car repairs, income taxes, etc. Everything.
If you had some partner living in the house, there would likely be no added income (not unless they worked). Kids? As long as it was two kids or less....no extra income. More than two kids? Yeah, there's likely to be added money.
Each would be required weekly to show up at some local job-center and apply for jobs. I would mandate job-training for virtually everyone. Anyone being uncooperative at applying for jobs or accepting job-training? Slap a 200-Euro fine upon their account each month that they act in this way. In some cases....mandate behavioral classes just to make them understand changes are necessary.
But here's the thing. As much as everyone will be hyped up and all super-positive in the first two years....reality will eventually come and announce itself. In some regions, cost of living will be unfair. In some areas....finding affordable housing will be impossible. Some people are bound and determined to live without working.
To afford this extra cost? More taxes will have to occur, or you cut somewhere (like that stupid military budget). All of that additional taxation will trigger additional problems down the line. So as much as people say this will fix things....it'll simply lead onto a new set of problems in five years.
Some people sense that a period of change is going to arrive in 2019....as a lot of discussions are held this year, and criticism will continue to mount.
The solution talked about? Universal Income.
The way this would work? In draft form, and based on at least twenty people describing their vision....I will offer my vision of how the Germans will implement it.
If you are on welfare status today....they'd slip you over tomorrow to Universal Income. Your monthly 'allowance' would go to roughy to 1,600 Euro. That would be there to cover rent, utilities, health care insurance, cellphone, IP service, car insurance, car repairs, income taxes, etc. Everything.
If you had some partner living in the house, there would likely be no added income (not unless they worked). Kids? As long as it was two kids or less....no extra income. More than two kids? Yeah, there's likely to be added money.
Each would be required weekly to show up at some local job-center and apply for jobs. I would mandate job-training for virtually everyone. Anyone being uncooperative at applying for jobs or accepting job-training? Slap a 200-Euro fine upon their account each month that they act in this way. In some cases....mandate behavioral classes just to make them understand changes are necessary.
But here's the thing. As much as everyone will be hyped up and all super-positive in the first two years....reality will eventually come and announce itself. In some regions, cost of living will be unfair. In some areas....finding affordable housing will be impossible. Some people are bound and determined to live without working.
To afford this extra cost? More taxes will have to occur, or you cut somewhere (like that stupid military budget). All of that additional taxation will trigger additional problems down the line. So as much as people say this will fix things....it'll simply lead onto a new set of problems in five years.
Monday, March 19, 2018
Spahn and Hartz IV Talk
A couple of weeks ago, CDU Party member....Jens Spahn..made a comment or two on Hartz IV (the German welfare program) and a number of political folks wanted to challenge him upon the program.
They've collected up a petition of 150,000 signatures, and demand that he live for one month on normal income that you'd have for Hartz IV.
Focus had a brief article about this petition and what is coming along with it.
Spahn says he'll privately meet with the person who sponsored the petition and discuss the idea. The basic suggestion? You would have to take the 404 Euro for the chief partner, the sub-partner would get 364 Euro (Spahn is married, if you were curious). So he'd have to survive off 768 for the month.....to cover his cellphone, internet, heat, garbage, water, electrical, and food (for two).
My guess is that both Spahn and his spouse have at least 200 Euro a month going out for cellphone coverage, internet and telephone.....so that will be difficult for them to figure into the challenge. The fact that both work would also present problems as well.
My guess in the end is that Spahn and the spouse will agree to a food allocation deal of 280 Euro (more or less).
My German wife brought up this whole planning strategy. In her mind, she'd need 4.50 Euro a day per person (135 Euro monthly). On this, you could eat decently....shop exceptionally smart-wise, buy cheap beer, cheap meats, etc.....and survive.
The problem with this concept though....there is no extras built into the system. If you had a cat....it'd be a problem. A dog? No way. Gifts for someone? You'd have to forget about that. It's meant as enough to marginally live and put some enthusiasm into you to find a job.
I suspect that Spahn will take the deal and show over the course of 30 days that you can live off the Hartz IV sum.
They've collected up a petition of 150,000 signatures, and demand that he live for one month on normal income that you'd have for Hartz IV.
Focus had a brief article about this petition and what is coming along with it.
Spahn says he'll privately meet with the person who sponsored the petition and discuss the idea. The basic suggestion? You would have to take the 404 Euro for the chief partner, the sub-partner would get 364 Euro (Spahn is married, if you were curious). So he'd have to survive off 768 for the month.....to cover his cellphone, internet, heat, garbage, water, electrical, and food (for two).
My guess is that both Spahn and his spouse have at least 200 Euro a month going out for cellphone coverage, internet and telephone.....so that will be difficult for them to figure into the challenge. The fact that both work would also present problems as well.
My guess in the end is that Spahn and the spouse will agree to a food allocation deal of 280 Euro (more or less).
My German wife brought up this whole planning strategy. In her mind, she'd need 4.50 Euro a day per person (135 Euro monthly). On this, you could eat decently....shop exceptionally smart-wise, buy cheap beer, cheap meats, etc.....and survive.
The problem with this concept though....there is no extras built into the system. If you had a cat....it'd be a problem. A dog? No way. Gifts for someone? You'd have to forget about that. It's meant as enough to marginally live and put some enthusiasm into you to find a job.
I suspect that Spahn will take the deal and show over the course of 30 days that you can live off the Hartz IV sum.
Altmaier Trip to the US
This week, the new German Minister for Economic Affairs (Pete Altmaier) is supposed to fly into the US and have various talks with US officials....mostly over the upcoming steel and aluminum tariff business.
He's hoping to get something out of the Trump administration to halt the US action.
I think he'll run into a brick wall....as Trump officials note that this is an action being conducted worldwide.....with only Canada, Mexico and Australia on the free-pass deal, and Altmaier is only there to represent Germany....(hint: he's not an EU-representative), then this talk won't go far. I'm also of the opinion that some references will be made over the TTIP Treaty that failed toward the last quarter of 2016, and no willing nature from the EU to go back to the table.
Altmaier will then do some falling upon the sword and suggest that Germany has been a fair partner of the US.
In the end, the US will agree to meet in a month, with EU officials on this topic, and that a rebuild of the TTIP would be in order.
He's hoping to get something out of the Trump administration to halt the US action.
I think he'll run into a brick wall....as Trump officials note that this is an action being conducted worldwide.....with only Canada, Mexico and Australia on the free-pass deal, and Altmaier is only there to represent Germany....(hint: he's not an EU-representative), then this talk won't go far. I'm also of the opinion that some references will be made over the TTIP Treaty that failed toward the last quarter of 2016, and no willing nature from the EU to go back to the table.
Altmaier will then do some falling upon the sword and suggest that Germany has been a fair partner of the US.
In the end, the US will agree to meet in a month, with EU officials on this topic, and that a rebuild of the TTIP would be in order.
Sunday, March 18, 2018
A Jobs Story
Welt am Sonntag (a good Sunday newspaper in Germany) had an interesting piece today.
There's this odd shortage going on. You come up with a project in the house....say a new wallpaper situation for a room, and you do the interview to find the right guy at the right price. So you finally find this guy, and he gives you the waiting period (roughly ten weeks) before he can start. This is now the national average.
Why so long?
There's a national shortage being noted right now with these handyman crafts. It's just not a field that attracts people as an occupation. Painters, electricians, plumbers, wallpaper folks, carpenters, roofers, etc.
The thing that Welt points out.....these professional German handymen are making as much as most academics.
There's this odd shortage going on. You come up with a project in the house....say a new wallpaper situation for a room, and you do the interview to find the right guy at the right price. So you finally find this guy, and he gives you the waiting period (roughly ten weeks) before he can start. This is now the national average.
Why so long?
There's a national shortage being noted right now with these handyman crafts. It's just not a field that attracts people as an occupation. Painters, electricians, plumbers, wallpaper folks, carpenters, roofers, etc.
The thing that Welt points out.....these professional German handymen are making as much as most academics.
ARD/ZDF Story
Focus, the German news magazine, picked up an interesting topic today.....public TV and radio taxes on the public.
There was a meeting last week (Tuesday) with ARD/ZDF (the public TV group) and the commission that sees over their operation.
Over the past couple of years, various Germans have tried to challenge the monthly fee situation and hoped to get it dumped. So far, none have succeeded. The commission though....seems to be thinking along the lines that eventually, some challenge will succeed.
It's pointed out that in a recent poll.....nearly 40-percent of the public is fed up with the media tax and they want it gone. 55-percent want it to remain.
What the ARD/ZDF crew point out in public discussions, is that for this period of 2021 to 2024.....they are are more than three billion-Euro short on income. So, they need the monthly amount (17.50 Euro) to go up. My guess is that it'll have to reach 20-Euro per month as a minimum.....unless of course....they downsize.
The commission? They aren't attached to any political agenda (at least they claim that), and their enthusiasm is simply to ensure the mechanism survives on. But finding three billion Euro in savings?
There was a meeting last week (Tuesday) with ARD/ZDF (the public TV group) and the commission that sees over their operation.
Over the past couple of years, various Germans have tried to challenge the monthly fee situation and hoped to get it dumped. So far, none have succeeded. The commission though....seems to be thinking along the lines that eventually, some challenge will succeed.
It's pointed out that in a recent poll.....nearly 40-percent of the public is fed up with the media tax and they want it gone. 55-percent want it to remain.
What the ARD/ZDF crew point out in public discussions, is that for this period of 2021 to 2024.....they are are more than three billion-Euro short on income. So, they need the monthly amount (17.50 Euro) to go up. My guess is that it'll have to reach 20-Euro per month as a minimum.....unless of course....they downsize.
The commission? They aren't attached to any political agenda (at least they claim that), and their enthusiasm is simply to ensure the mechanism survives on. But finding three billion Euro in savings?
The Twitter Story
At some point in the last couple of days....someone took up the comment of the new Minister of the Interior of Germany (Seehofer), "Islam does not belong to Germany".....except they rephrased the comment on Twitter....."Bayern (Bavaria) does not belong to Germany".
Most folks had a laugh over the comment. Historians....less so.
There are two states within Germany which were forced into Prussia (1870s era).....Nassau (today Hessen) and Bayern (Bavaria). Both had a pact with the Hapsburg Empire, and were allowed to exist as individual states in Europe. When Prussia threatened the Hapsburg Empire, that protection pact went down the drain.
What can be said since that era is that both would have done well economically on their own, but being part of the Prussian and later German landscape.....probably helped them even more.
Around a year ago....a poll was held in Bavaria and roughly one-third of population would prefer that Bavaria be their own nation.
So this brings me around to this odd topic....is Bavaria a bit different from the rest of Germany? The simple answer is 'yes'. Course, you could probably say the same about the state of Hamburg, and the state of Hessen. For that matter, most all German states have a unique character about themselves.
Berlin Airport News
Focus, the German news magazine put up a short news item this morning, concerning the comments of the Lufthansa CEO (Thorsten Dirks) over the new Berlin Airport (still under construction, six years after it was supposed to be completed).
In simple terms, Dirks says that the whole airport ought to be scrapped....torn down, and rebuilt.
He points out several interesting reasons for his comments.
For example, most of the equipment and furniture that Lufthansa would have had in their work areas.....are now obsolete.
Another item which got brought up this week was the replacement of 750 monitors throughout the airport which would have provided information for the passengers. The warranty for the power supply was set for six years.....so they have no choice but to replace them.
The odds of someone in a place of authority stopping the project and tearing it down? Zero chance. I do agree, it's got an enormous 'jinx' attached to it and I expect a minimum of two more years before it is officially running.
For someone doing a thesis on poor planning, the Airport would be worth a hundred pages.
In simple terms, Dirks says that the whole airport ought to be scrapped....torn down, and rebuilt.
He points out several interesting reasons for his comments.
For example, most of the equipment and furniture that Lufthansa would have had in their work areas.....are now obsolete.
Another item which got brought up this week was the replacement of 750 monitors throughout the airport which would have provided information for the passengers. The warranty for the power supply was set for six years.....so they have no choice but to replace them.
The odds of someone in a place of authority stopping the project and tearing it down? Zero chance. I do agree, it's got an enormous 'jinx' attached to it and I expect a minimum of two more years before it is officially running.
For someone doing a thesis on poor planning, the Airport would be worth a hundred pages.
Saturday, March 17, 2018
Frankfurt Airport Story
When you discuss air travel in Germany....Frankfurt is usually hyped up and noted as the number one airport in the country, and near the top three in Europe itself.
HR (our regional public TV network) brought up this topic about the Frankfurt Airport today.
Back before 2014, it was rare (if ever) that the Frankfurt Airport handled 200,000 passengers in one single day. In 2017, there were 140 days where the passenger traffic crossed the 200k passenger line.
All of this traffic is bringing capability issues within the airport. You can figure roughly thirty days out of each year where holiday travel will occur, and it's strongly recommended that you get to parking at least three hours prior to the flight. I would even go and suggest four hours if this were the couple of days prior to Christmas or New Year's Eve.
All of this is leading to passenger complaints to the airlines.
Some examples of what I've experienced:
1. On hectic days, and trying to get through the border-control deal....it can take up to thirty minutes. The last time I went through....it took two minutes. So it really matters on the time of year that you make a trip.
2. On hectic days and trying to get through the bag security deal....you can anticipate a minimum of forty-five minutes.
3. Trying to eat something at a airport cafe or restaurant on a hectic day? You might be standing there for at least 20 minutes before you get your order turned in.
The airport is in desperate need of more cops, and they are waiting on new recruits to arrive. Just on airport operations personnel.....there are openings for around 2,000 additional folks....which they are having trouble finding them locally.....so they've gone to Greece and Croatia to recruit more workers.
HR (our regional public TV network) brought up this topic about the Frankfurt Airport today.
Back before 2014, it was rare (if ever) that the Frankfurt Airport handled 200,000 passengers in one single day. In 2017, there were 140 days where the passenger traffic crossed the 200k passenger line.
All of this traffic is bringing capability issues within the airport. You can figure roughly thirty days out of each year where holiday travel will occur, and it's strongly recommended that you get to parking at least three hours prior to the flight. I would even go and suggest four hours if this were the couple of days prior to Christmas or New Year's Eve.
All of this is leading to passenger complaints to the airlines.
Some examples of what I've experienced:
1. On hectic days, and trying to get through the border-control deal....it can take up to thirty minutes. The last time I went through....it took two minutes. So it really matters on the time of year that you make a trip.
2. On hectic days and trying to get through the bag security deal....you can anticipate a minimum of forty-five minutes.
3. Trying to eat something at a airport cafe or restaurant on a hectic day? You might be standing there for at least 20 minutes before you get your order turned in.
The airport is in desperate need of more cops, and they are waiting on new recruits to arrive. Just on airport operations personnel.....there are openings for around 2,000 additional folks....which they are having trouble finding them locally.....so they've gone to Greece and Croatia to recruit more workers.
Danish TV Update
Focus carried a brief article this morning, talking about Denmark and this new law passed late in the week. The Danish government had a lot of public pressure put on them and so they decided to saddle-up with the public.
Danish public TV has been for several decades....a monthly tax deal upon each household. The amount per house....was 335 Euro yearly (2492 DKK). This basically paid for various radio stations and six public TV channels.
So the new law is that the money will come straight out of the national budget.....that DR (the controlling organization) must take a 20-percent pay-cut. No one says where the cut will be....one might assume that one of the networks (of the six) will disappear, and some folks will lose their jobs.
The basic problem in Denmark, which is the same problem in Germany.....you have more and more young people who are avoiding public TV entirely and think the monthly household tax is unfair.
What was the monthly deal created in the first place? Everyone felt that as governments come and go.....that political folks would attach themselves to the networks and try to manipulate them. The fact that networks might go on their own, and create their own slant on things....siding with various politics or campaigns? Well....yeah, that was the other situation to this discussion.
All of this will come to affect the German public TV system eventually.....that's my humble opinion.
Danish public TV has been for several decades....a monthly tax deal upon each household. The amount per house....was 335 Euro yearly (2492 DKK). This basically paid for various radio stations and six public TV channels.
So the new law is that the money will come straight out of the national budget.....that DR (the controlling organization) must take a 20-percent pay-cut. No one says where the cut will be....one might assume that one of the networks (of the six) will disappear, and some folks will lose their jobs.
The basic problem in Denmark, which is the same problem in Germany.....you have more and more young people who are avoiding public TV entirely and think the monthly household tax is unfair.
What was the monthly deal created in the first place? Everyone felt that as governments come and go.....that political folks would attach themselves to the networks and try to manipulate them. The fact that networks might go on their own, and create their own slant on things....siding with various politics or campaigns? Well....yeah, that was the other situation to this discussion.
All of this will come to affect the German public TV system eventually.....that's my humble opinion.
Seehofer versus Merkel Comments
Somewhere in the middle of this past week....our new Secretary of the Interior (Seehofer, CSU) came out in an interview and said that Muslims were 'not part of Germany', and the next day, the Chancellor (Merkel, CDU) said 'yes, Muslim are part of Germany'. All of this has apparently triggered some public debate.
Some forums over the next week or two....will center on this topic and intellectuals/journalists will be throwing themselves at Merkel's side and trying to convince the public of good intentions.
It's a debate that goes nowhere in the end.
I would suggest that about a quarter of the population rallies around Seehofer, and sees long-term problems. On the Merkel-side, I would suggest near 40-percent are pro-Islam. The fact that four million Muslims now exist in the country (of 82-million), means that industry and job-wise....they are definitely part of the hub. As for the remaining thirty-five percent? Somewhere in the middle with questions being asked and trust being a problem.
This is a public debate that goes nowhere in the end. The Germans cannot effectively run their job-system without this massive participation.
Some forums over the next week or two....will center on this topic and intellectuals/journalists will be throwing themselves at Merkel's side and trying to convince the public of good intentions.
It's a debate that goes nowhere in the end.
I would suggest that about a quarter of the population rallies around Seehofer, and sees long-term problems. On the Merkel-side, I would suggest near 40-percent are pro-Islam. The fact that four million Muslims now exist in the country (of 82-million), means that industry and job-wise....they are definitely part of the hub. As for the remaining thirty-five percent? Somewhere in the middle with questions being asked and trust being a problem.
This is a public debate that goes nowhere in the end. The Germans cannot effectively run their job-system without this massive participation.
Friday, March 16, 2018
VW in the News
Yesterday in Hamburg, a special court decision occurred which might have huge implications.
Around three years ago, when the diesel car business became front-page news....this German had just recently purchased a diesel vehicle....brand new.
As NDR (the public network from the region) tells the short story.....the car owner (a German) was pretty peeved over the situation, the lessened value in the car, and took this to court.
A Hamburg court examined all the facts, and yesterday came to this conclusion....VW has to give him a new car that meets the emissions situation. My guess is that he wants a gas-car, instead of a diesel vehicle, but in the end here....VW has to accept the old car back and provide a brand-new car.
What happens now? Some people think that the template will be used over and over, and that thousands of Germans....maybe into the millions....will play out the same court situation. Course, you could be looking at court activity taking an entire decade.
My view is that VW should have come out with some joint activity with the Berlin leadership and found some way to avoid this court activity early on.
Around three years ago, when the diesel car business became front-page news....this German had just recently purchased a diesel vehicle....brand new.
As NDR (the public network from the region) tells the short story.....the car owner (a German) was pretty peeved over the situation, the lessened value in the car, and took this to court.
A Hamburg court examined all the facts, and yesterday came to this conclusion....VW has to give him a new car that meets the emissions situation. My guess is that he wants a gas-car, instead of a diesel vehicle, but in the end here....VW has to accept the old car back and provide a brand-new car.
What happens now? Some people think that the template will be used over and over, and that thousands of Germans....maybe into the millions....will play out the same court situation. Course, you could be looking at court activity taking an entire decade.
My view is that VW should have come out with some joint activity with the Berlin leadership and found some way to avoid this court activity early on.
The Soccer World Cup in Trouble
In a couple of months....the World Cup would have unfolded in Russia, and folks would be hyped up on soccer for an entire month.
Well....there's talk now that the British team will not show up because of the toxic poison episode in the UK, triggered by some Russian folks.
So there's more talks going on, and the hint that various nations in the EU might not show up. FIFA, the controlling authority over soccer and they run the games.....seems to be a bit worried now. There's ton's of money at stake over the games, and the televised events.
The least that might happen? The UK pulls out and FIFA goes to a replacement team....without much of a worry.
The most that would happen? There is some speculation that the German and French teams might pull out, and a secondary group (Sweden, Switzerland, Iceland, Denmark, and Belgium) will at least discuss the matter.
Without those major teams? It's strictly a Brazil or Argentina series, and I would see a major problem with viewership.
Well....there's talk now that the British team will not show up because of the toxic poison episode in the UK, triggered by some Russian folks.
So there's more talks going on, and the hint that various nations in the EU might not show up. FIFA, the controlling authority over soccer and they run the games.....seems to be a bit worried now. There's ton's of money at stake over the games, and the televised events.
The least that might happen? The UK pulls out and FIFA goes to a replacement team....without much of a worry.
The most that would happen? There is some speculation that the German and French teams might pull out, and a secondary group (Sweden, Switzerland, Iceland, Denmark, and Belgium) will at least discuss the matter.
Without those major teams? It's strictly a Brazil or Argentina series, and I would see a major problem with viewership.
Thursday, March 15, 2018
The Topic That Came Up Yesterday
I sat in a German language class yesterday, which of course of composed of all non-Germans. We had sub-teacher....because the flu thing is going on strong.
So in the middle of this class, we come to this topic area of homelessness or street-people in Germany. It was a side-topic and you find side-topics pop up at least once per hour in these language classes.
After the sub-teacher had done some short chat....the Syrian in the group asked a direct question. With all this 'free-assistance' that Germany has.....why can't they help to take the street-people or the homeless guys....off the streets? Obviously, this person had noted the dynamics of the German assistance program and like most of the people in the room....was extremely positive over the German culture.
You could sense that she'd picked a topic that triggered the sub-teacher into pausing for a moment.
If I were to answer, it'd be some hour-long explanation about the street-people, the guys who live under bridges, the Tipplebruder adventurers, etc.
The sub-teacher lead to just a simple explanation....this group of people liked living on the streets. It was their kind of atmosphere.
I don't think the group really bought into the explanation. For me, it was a marginal answer to explain the phonenmum.
About eight years ago, I arrived in the Washington DC area and one of the odd characteristics of the region are the various homeless folks....lots of them. After coming back to Germany, I began to notice the same trends here....perhaps in lesser numbers, but still noticeable.
I've come to this observation that you can divide the street-folks or homeless folks into five categories:
1. The individual who whacked themselves out on drugs or booze....to the extent that it's affected their ability to reason or think. So they live in some halfway-world, with little stress or demands.
2. The individual who had a trade or craft that marginally worked in real life, and with one single stumble....they 'fell'. If the resources, coaching and help were to be put into place....this group could return and be productive people in society.
3. The paranoid schizophrenic crowd. These are the people who know that they might be put into some institution because they really can't control themselves. So they live off the street....mostly to enjoy what freedom they have left.
4. The weeded-out crowd. This is the group that felt stress and pressure....reaching a relief point with marijuana, and relied upon to be the end-all answer to their problems. So they eased themselves out of a job eventually and are basically unable to cope with a normal world....and this street-world is pretty simple and uncomplicated.
5. The nuts crowd. These are certified folks who are just plain crazy and the free lifestyle is their last chance in life before being detained or permanently put away.
The problem here....if you tried to explain this to the non-German crowd, they'd be in mostly disbelief. You didn't see much of this issue in Syria or Iraq. Course, they had facilities to house mental folks, and the leadership through the decades utilized the facilities. They also hyped up a anti-alcohol and anti-drug philosophy. And there's just not any marijuana much in that region. So they had less of a problem to deal with or notice in a public episode.
For some reason, I don't think the sub-teacher's answer will resolve much for these 'new' Germans.
So in the middle of this class, we come to this topic area of homelessness or street-people in Germany. It was a side-topic and you find side-topics pop up at least once per hour in these language classes.
After the sub-teacher had done some short chat....the Syrian in the group asked a direct question. With all this 'free-assistance' that Germany has.....why can't they help to take the street-people or the homeless guys....off the streets? Obviously, this person had noted the dynamics of the German assistance program and like most of the people in the room....was extremely positive over the German culture.
You could sense that she'd picked a topic that triggered the sub-teacher into pausing for a moment.
If I were to answer, it'd be some hour-long explanation about the street-people, the guys who live under bridges, the Tipplebruder adventurers, etc.
The sub-teacher lead to just a simple explanation....this group of people liked living on the streets. It was their kind of atmosphere.
I don't think the group really bought into the explanation. For me, it was a marginal answer to explain the phonenmum.
About eight years ago, I arrived in the Washington DC area and one of the odd characteristics of the region are the various homeless folks....lots of them. After coming back to Germany, I began to notice the same trends here....perhaps in lesser numbers, but still noticeable.
I've come to this observation that you can divide the street-folks or homeless folks into five categories:
1. The individual who whacked themselves out on drugs or booze....to the extent that it's affected their ability to reason or think. So they live in some halfway-world, with little stress or demands.
2. The individual who had a trade or craft that marginally worked in real life, and with one single stumble....they 'fell'. If the resources, coaching and help were to be put into place....this group could return and be productive people in society.
3. The paranoid schizophrenic crowd. These are the people who know that they might be put into some institution because they really can't control themselves. So they live off the street....mostly to enjoy what freedom they have left.
4. The weeded-out crowd. This is the group that felt stress and pressure....reaching a relief point with marijuana, and relied upon to be the end-all answer to their problems. So they eased themselves out of a job eventually and are basically unable to cope with a normal world....and this street-world is pretty simple and uncomplicated.
5. The nuts crowd. These are certified folks who are just plain crazy and the free lifestyle is their last chance in life before being detained or permanently put away.
The problem here....if you tried to explain this to the non-German crowd, they'd be in mostly disbelief. You didn't see much of this issue in Syria or Iraq. Course, they had facilities to house mental folks, and the leadership through the decades utilized the facilities. They also hyped up a anti-alcohol and anti-drug philosophy. And there's just not any marijuana much in that region. So they had less of a problem to deal with or notice in a public episode.
For some reason, I don't think the sub-teacher's answer will resolve much for these 'new' Germans.
Wednesday, March 14, 2018
Those Happy Finns
Some PhD folks went and did a worldwide survey and came to the conclusion....that the happiest people on Earth...come from Finland.
Yes, Finland.
I sat and thought about it this morning. I've been there once in my life....seven days....in Helsinki. To be honest, I've been through about twenty-five nations in my life and it'd be hard to rate any of them as number one above all the rest. In fact, most folks in Australia seem awful happy....more so than you'd expect with all the snakes, and such.....but I think the liberal consumption of alcohol helps them adjust to negative things.
So I paused over the Finland situation and thought about what I saw in that week there.
First, winter comes early and stays on until almost April. Folks seem to bundle up and almost enjoy the frigid temperatures. They might even chat with glee on how 12th day straight of freezing temperatures.
Second, it's one of the places where I've been where an authentic Finn restaurant will offer up bear meat.
Third, whatever level of caffeine you are used to....the folks in Helsinki tend to make their coffee about 25-percent stronger.
Fourth, Finn women generally look fierce enough that even Vikings might shake in fear in their presence.
Fifth, even though it's generally taxed at a hefty rate....Finns will drink as much as they can possibly afford.
Sixth, you get the impression that out of every five Finns you bump into....at least one of them hold a PhD.
Seventh, in the summer period...mid-July, the sun barely does go down....maybe for four hours, and then it rises. In the winter....you kinda notice the sun coming up around mid-morning and setting mid-afternoon. You get the impression that Finns barely sleep in the summer, and mostly sleep in the winter.
Eighth, you just don't see too many homeless folks.
I'm guessing that Finns are a bit puzzled over being rated number one on happiness and they've called up their associates to come over.....open up a bottle of booze and discuss the impact of the happiness award. Most of the discussion will be forgotten as the sun rises, and a new day arrives. Meanwhile, some Australians are bitterly disappointed over not winning the 'most happy' award.....enough to invite their associates over and also opening up a bottle or two, to discuss their loss.
Yes, Finland.
I sat and thought about it this morning. I've been there once in my life....seven days....in Helsinki. To be honest, I've been through about twenty-five nations in my life and it'd be hard to rate any of them as number one above all the rest. In fact, most folks in Australia seem awful happy....more so than you'd expect with all the snakes, and such.....but I think the liberal consumption of alcohol helps them adjust to negative things.
So I paused over the Finland situation and thought about what I saw in that week there.
First, winter comes early and stays on until almost April. Folks seem to bundle up and almost enjoy the frigid temperatures. They might even chat with glee on how 12th day straight of freezing temperatures.
Second, it's one of the places where I've been where an authentic Finn restaurant will offer up bear meat.
Third, whatever level of caffeine you are used to....the folks in Helsinki tend to make their coffee about 25-percent stronger.
Fourth, Finn women generally look fierce enough that even Vikings might shake in fear in their presence.
Fifth, even though it's generally taxed at a hefty rate....Finns will drink as much as they can possibly afford.
Sixth, you get the impression that out of every five Finns you bump into....at least one of them hold a PhD.
Seventh, in the summer period...mid-July, the sun barely does go down....maybe for four hours, and then it rises. In the winter....you kinda notice the sun coming up around mid-morning and setting mid-afternoon. You get the impression that Finns barely sleep in the summer, and mostly sleep in the winter.
Eighth, you just don't see too many homeless folks.
I'm guessing that Finns are a bit puzzled over being rated number one on happiness and they've called up their associates to come over.....open up a bottle of booze and discuss the impact of the happiness award. Most of the discussion will be forgotten as the sun rises, and a new day arrives. Meanwhile, some Australians are bitterly disappointed over not winning the 'most happy' award.....enough to invite their associates over and also opening up a bottle or two, to discuss their loss.
The Exiting German
Around fifteen years ago in Germany....one of the commercial networks started up this reality show which was about various Germans who were fed-up and were going to leave Germany (permanently). It was one of those odd shows that I ended watching weekly.
Some folks simply had some pasion about some foreign place. Some had bold and realistic plans. Some had barely any plan, and you could tell that they were going to return within six months admitting absolute defeat. Some folks fell into some great adventure and seemed to thrive.
I admired these folks to some degree.
I noticed via Focus today....a short article that came out of the German national Federal Statistical Office.
They wanted Germans to know that roughly 500,000 immigrants had settled into Germany in 2016.....no real shocker on that number (I probably expected it to be closer to 1-million but that was just a guess).
But then they came to this other odd number. 281,000 Germans left Germany that year. The year prior? 140,000 Germans left permanently.
Why the higher number? No one can say precisely.
There is this one theory that the 140,000 'extra' folks were simply full-up immigrants (with a visa), who just hit some point of reality after two or three years, and said enough....leaving to go back to the home-country. The thing is....you can't prove that point because no one collected that kind of data.
But you can take out of this whole statistical data game is that in a normal year.....without the immigration game being played out.....somewhere around 100,000 to 140,000 Germans just leave.
Back fifty years ago....the US would have likely been the most popular place. I've come to notice a fair number of Germans making their way down to Spain....or up into Sweden. A fair number even make their way out to Canada or Australia.
What drives a German to leave? I think some just want a change of pace or some new challenge. Some discover after a year or two outside the country....that they've had enough of a change of pace, and prefer to return back to Germany. Some are happy enough and never return.
Some folks simply had some pasion about some foreign place. Some had bold and realistic plans. Some had barely any plan, and you could tell that they were going to return within six months admitting absolute defeat. Some folks fell into some great adventure and seemed to thrive.
I admired these folks to some degree.
I noticed via Focus today....a short article that came out of the German national Federal Statistical Office.
They wanted Germans to know that roughly 500,000 immigrants had settled into Germany in 2016.....no real shocker on that number (I probably expected it to be closer to 1-million but that was just a guess).
But then they came to this other odd number. 281,000 Germans left Germany that year. The year prior? 140,000 Germans left permanently.
Why the higher number? No one can say precisely.
There is this one theory that the 140,000 'extra' folks were simply full-up immigrants (with a visa), who just hit some point of reality after two or three years, and said enough....leaving to go back to the home-country. The thing is....you can't prove that point because no one collected that kind of data.
But you can take out of this whole statistical data game is that in a normal year.....without the immigration game being played out.....somewhere around 100,000 to 140,000 Germans just leave.
Back fifty years ago....the US would have likely been the most popular place. I've come to notice a fair number of Germans making their way down to Spain....or up into Sweden. A fair number even make their way out to Canada or Australia.
What drives a German to leave? I think some just want a change of pace or some new challenge. Some discover after a year or two outside the country....that they've had enough of a change of pace, and prefer to return back to Germany. Some are happy enough and never return.
The Education Story
N-TV (our commercial news network here in Germany) had this short piece today....discussing the number of students in Germany.
According the German Federal Statistical Office (here in Wiesbaden).....there are eleven million students in the country (82.5 million residents total).
Out of this group....one in ten is noted as a non-German (foreigner).
The factor which stands out there and likely discussed each day by teachers...is that you have this vast landscape with dozens of nationalities....dozens of languages....dozens of backgrounds. All of this leads to a very difficult teaching situation, and the potential for failure.
According the German Federal Statistical Office (here in Wiesbaden).....there are eleven million students in the country (82.5 million residents total).
Out of this group....one in ten is noted as a non-German (foreigner).
The factor which stands out there and likely discussed each day by teachers...is that you have this vast landscape with dozens of nationalities....dozens of languages....dozens of backgrounds. All of this leads to a very difficult teaching situation, and the potential for failure.
Tuesday, March 13, 2018
My Old Hartz IV (Welfare) German Neighbor
Around twenty years ago, while living in the Kaiserslautern community, I had this next-door German neighbor who'd eventually gotten himself (the wife and three kids) on German welfare.
It was a step-by-step process. In his early 30s and working as a garbage truck driver.....he developed an attitude problem (smoking marijuana daily probably helped) and eventually got laid off. For him, the eighteen-odd months of unemployment compensation went well enough and he simply didn't make any effort to find another job.
So at the end of eighteen months....right as Hartz IV as a program took off....he was on the program. It meant that he had to show up weekly at the unemployment office and make some attempt at getting a job. About every two or three months....he'd be accepted as a try-out situation for some company, and within two or three days...call in sick and they'd cancel out his try-out.
Hartz IV paid enough for marginal survival, and his wife's parents paid out some extra funds to cover the kid's needs.
The marijuana? Well, he eventually started to grow his own, to ensure his 'stock'. He was the type of guy who smoked a minimum of four joints a day.
Looking like he was on welfare? He was the guy who always carried around a minimum of two cellphones. I could never understand this necessity except for the idea that he was selling part of his marijuana to some local distributor. Otherwise, it made no sense. On one occasion, my wife even pointed out a third cellphone in his possession. Everytime some new technology came out.....he had a new cellphone. In plain words, he just didn't look like he was on welfare.
When one of his kids turned 18 and was going onto university.....the kid moved out and the welfare folks said that the family would have to move to a new apartment and downsize (they can mandate this). Three years later....the second kid left, and they were mandated to move to another smaller apartment. Two years later, the third kid left, and they moved again.
My wife keeps marginal contact and in the last three or four years....the guy has found a couple of jobs and stayed employed for three or months at a time. Presently, he works for some package delivery service and I think he's up to six months of employment. Is he still smoking a fair amount of marijuana? My guess is yes.
I've come to this view that some percentage of the welfare folks are simply people with some attitude and unable to handle real-life stress or demands of work. A fair number of Germans think along these lines, and they aren't exactly pro-welfare types. But forcing people into some massive life change or getting them to accept the fact of forty hours of unpleasing work per week? Well....that's a problem. I would take a guess that a third of the people are in professional areas or certified areas where their background is worthless, and the German government would be better off to identify them for retraining entirely. Yeah, there is a cost factor, but avoiding this topic isn't helping much of anyone.
The bad luck factor? It would be interesting if some PhD folks would sit down and examine a hundred Germans on Hartz IV for more than three years. My guess is that maybe one-third of those individuals fit into the simple category of 'bad luck'. They stumbled and 'fell'....with no one standing there to pick them up and reshuffle the 'cards'. But then resolving this? The German PhD folks would turn this into some kind of Einstein-like equation.
It was a step-by-step process. In his early 30s and working as a garbage truck driver.....he developed an attitude problem (smoking marijuana daily probably helped) and eventually got laid off. For him, the eighteen-odd months of unemployment compensation went well enough and he simply didn't make any effort to find another job.
So at the end of eighteen months....right as Hartz IV as a program took off....he was on the program. It meant that he had to show up weekly at the unemployment office and make some attempt at getting a job. About every two or three months....he'd be accepted as a try-out situation for some company, and within two or three days...call in sick and they'd cancel out his try-out.
Hartz IV paid enough for marginal survival, and his wife's parents paid out some extra funds to cover the kid's needs.
The marijuana? Well, he eventually started to grow his own, to ensure his 'stock'. He was the type of guy who smoked a minimum of four joints a day.
Looking like he was on welfare? He was the guy who always carried around a minimum of two cellphones. I could never understand this necessity except for the idea that he was selling part of his marijuana to some local distributor. Otherwise, it made no sense. On one occasion, my wife even pointed out a third cellphone in his possession. Everytime some new technology came out.....he had a new cellphone. In plain words, he just didn't look like he was on welfare.
When one of his kids turned 18 and was going onto university.....the kid moved out and the welfare folks said that the family would have to move to a new apartment and downsize (they can mandate this). Three years later....the second kid left, and they were mandated to move to another smaller apartment. Two years later, the third kid left, and they moved again.
My wife keeps marginal contact and in the last three or four years....the guy has found a couple of jobs and stayed employed for three or months at a time. Presently, he works for some package delivery service and I think he's up to six months of employment. Is he still smoking a fair amount of marijuana? My guess is yes.
I've come to this view that some percentage of the welfare folks are simply people with some attitude and unable to handle real-life stress or demands of work. A fair number of Germans think along these lines, and they aren't exactly pro-welfare types. But forcing people into some massive life change or getting them to accept the fact of forty hours of unpleasing work per week? Well....that's a problem. I would take a guess that a third of the people are in professional areas or certified areas where their background is worthless, and the German government would be better off to identify them for retraining entirely. Yeah, there is a cost factor, but avoiding this topic isn't helping much of anyone.
The bad luck factor? It would be interesting if some PhD folks would sit down and examine a hundred Germans on Hartz IV for more than three years. My guess is that maybe one-third of those individuals fit into the simple category of 'bad luck'. They stumbled and 'fell'....with no one standing there to pick them up and reshuffle the 'cards'. But then resolving this? The German PhD folks would turn this into some kind of Einstein-like equation.
Forty Years Reflection
About two months ago.....I had my 40th year since arriving in Germany originally (1978). I've come and gone....come and gone....come and gone.....and come back. I've sat and pondered upon the 1978 period, and my perception of Germany, and what has really changed over the past forty years. So, ten observations.
1. In 1978, everywhere you looked around the Frankfurt region, everything was built to last, and work. You just never saw anything that was broke or 'kaput'. Today? Virtually everywhere you go or view....something is disfunctional or marginally working. If you bring up the Berlin Airport, the Hamburg Opera House, or the Stuttgart subway project.....Germans just grin because it's now a daily event to point out things which just don't work. I can't really explain how things got so screwed up over forty years except that the old guys retired, and the new guys just aren't up to the job.
2. In 1978, you could go out to a local gasthaus and have an entire plate of home-cooked food with a German beer for about five DM's ($2.50). Today? About 50-percent of the restaurants won't serve anything with the home-cooked slant to it. Most have some frozen package, which they heat up and serve. If they do offer it, it's in the range of twelve Euro for the Schnitzel platter, with the beer. That's about $14.50 US dollars.
3. In 1978, you just didn't worry about crime. Well...you did worry about the Red Army Faction and terror attacks (like you do today). You could have left your car unlocked and nothing would have been stolen from it. Today? You lock everything. When you exit a train, you scan your surroundings. Walking down some shopping district, you scan 360 degrees.
4. In 1978, German guys used to stop on the way home and have a beer or two at least twice a week. Today? Maybe one guy out of fifty would stop off these days. Germans drink less beer these days.
5. In 1978, you could walk along the streets of Frankfurt and admit that 50-percent of the women were dressed in some awful fashion design that made no sense. Forty years later.....you could walk the same streets, and find that again.....fifty-percent of the German women are dressed in some awful and weird fashion statement....that makes no sense.
6. In 1978, just about everywhere you looked in Frankfurt....massive construction was underway. In 2018, just about everywhere you look in Frankfurt.....massive construction is underway.
7. In 1978, over a whole day of walking around some metropolitan city in Germany.....you might have seen five beggars. In 2018, you go and walk the same streets in that metropolitan German city for a whole day, and you probably note at least forty beggars. Oddly, most of those today aren't German.
8. In 1978, over an average day of walking around....you would have likely bumped into Germans, Turks, and Americans. In 2018, in an average day.....you will likely bump into a minimum of forty nationalities.
9. In 1978, you would have stopped at a German cafe and sipped some of the strongest coffee in your life. In 2018, well....nothing much there has changed.
10. In 1978, you could have boarded a German train with no AC, and in July....the only cooling effect was to let down the window. Today, all of the trains have AC, but none of them are built to handle a temperature above 32-Celsius. So you tend to think about getting off about an hour into your trip....just to have a beer and chill off. In 1978, the toilets onboard the trains worked.....although I admit they simply just dumped whatever you 'did' onto the tracks. In 2018, the toilets are built to store and then dump each night at some maintenance point. However, about 30-percent of the time, you find a nice sign on the toilet door noting 'defective', and you start planning a brief stop at the next station to do your business.
1. In 1978, everywhere you looked around the Frankfurt region, everything was built to last, and work. You just never saw anything that was broke or 'kaput'. Today? Virtually everywhere you go or view....something is disfunctional or marginally working. If you bring up the Berlin Airport, the Hamburg Opera House, or the Stuttgart subway project.....Germans just grin because it's now a daily event to point out things which just don't work. I can't really explain how things got so screwed up over forty years except that the old guys retired, and the new guys just aren't up to the job.
2. In 1978, you could go out to a local gasthaus and have an entire plate of home-cooked food with a German beer for about five DM's ($2.50). Today? About 50-percent of the restaurants won't serve anything with the home-cooked slant to it. Most have some frozen package, which they heat up and serve. If they do offer it, it's in the range of twelve Euro for the Schnitzel platter, with the beer. That's about $14.50 US dollars.
3. In 1978, you just didn't worry about crime. Well...you did worry about the Red Army Faction and terror attacks (like you do today). You could have left your car unlocked and nothing would have been stolen from it. Today? You lock everything. When you exit a train, you scan your surroundings. Walking down some shopping district, you scan 360 degrees.
4. In 1978, German guys used to stop on the way home and have a beer or two at least twice a week. Today? Maybe one guy out of fifty would stop off these days. Germans drink less beer these days.
5. In 1978, you could walk along the streets of Frankfurt and admit that 50-percent of the women were dressed in some awful fashion design that made no sense. Forty years later.....you could walk the same streets, and find that again.....fifty-percent of the German women are dressed in some awful and weird fashion statement....that makes no sense.
6. In 1978, just about everywhere you looked in Frankfurt....massive construction was underway. In 2018, just about everywhere you look in Frankfurt.....massive construction is underway.
7. In 1978, over a whole day of walking around some metropolitan city in Germany.....you might have seen five beggars. In 2018, you go and walk the same streets in that metropolitan German city for a whole day, and you probably note at least forty beggars. Oddly, most of those today aren't German.
8. In 1978, over an average day of walking around....you would have likely bumped into Germans, Turks, and Americans. In 2018, in an average day.....you will likely bump into a minimum of forty nationalities.
9. In 1978, you would have stopped at a German cafe and sipped some of the strongest coffee in your life. In 2018, well....nothing much there has changed.
10. In 1978, you could have boarded a German train with no AC, and in July....the only cooling effect was to let down the window. Today, all of the trains have AC, but none of them are built to handle a temperature above 32-Celsius. So you tend to think about getting off about an hour into your trip....just to have a beer and chill off. In 1978, the toilets onboard the trains worked.....although I admit they simply just dumped whatever you 'did' onto the tracks. In 2018, the toilets are built to store and then dump each night at some maintenance point. However, about 30-percent of the time, you find a nice sign on the toilet door noting 'defective', and you start planning a brief stop at the next station to do your business.
Freiburg Case Coming to an End
Over several occasions, I've essayed the murder that occurred in Freiburg, Germany in 2016, and the subsequent capture of the suspect....a juvenile immigrant from Afghanistan. I've also essayed the medical test results that conclude that the 'kid' is a minimum of 22 years old (his father at some point suggested he was nearer to 30 years old). All of that mattered in the court episode that unfolded.
So N-TV updated the situation this morning.
The refugee noted in public news as Hussein K. has requested alcohol and drug rehab while being held. No one speculates on the approval by the judge but I'm guessing that they will approve it.
The potential for the lesser sentence? The judge will pass the sentencing phase in ten days and there is some speculation that it'll be a life sentence handed down. The fact that the guy had attacked a young Greek gal around three years prior and sentenced off for that offense might play into the whole episode here.
The fact that they've been holding the young guy for almost a year, and now.....they request the drug and alcohol rehab deal? You would think the guy would be fairly clean by this point and whatever issues he had....would be finished.
So N-TV updated the situation this morning.
The refugee noted in public news as Hussein K. has requested alcohol and drug rehab while being held. No one speculates on the approval by the judge but I'm guessing that they will approve it.
The potential for the lesser sentence? The judge will pass the sentencing phase in ten days and there is some speculation that it'll be a life sentence handed down. The fact that the guy had attacked a young Greek gal around three years prior and sentenced off for that offense might play into the whole episode here.
The fact that they've been holding the young guy for almost a year, and now.....they request the drug and alcohol rehab deal? You would think the guy would be fairly clean by this point and whatever issues he had....would be finished.
Attacks in Germany Over Last Weekend
Focus (the German news magazine) came up with a short piece this morning....chatting over the odd occurrence in the last weekend of four Islamic mosques or Turkish-organizations being 'lit-up' (molotov cocktail type fire).
It has been lightly carried on public TV (barely mentioned). To be honest, it's not something that occurs much, and to have four in one weekend.....in four different German states....is a bit odd.
So what has come up is Turkey getting into the middle of this and suggesting that the PKK (the Kurdish Worker's Party) were the ones involved.
The German cops? They are still investigating and have not made any real public statement.
The odds of some right-wing or Nazi-like group? There's simply no evidence laying out there. But the fact that four events occur over a 48-hour period, in four different locations? It's simply speculation. The possibility that some Turkish political action group did it? That would be only speculation as well.
It has been lightly carried on public TV (barely mentioned). To be honest, it's not something that occurs much, and to have four in one weekend.....in four different German states....is a bit odd.
So what has come up is Turkey getting into the middle of this and suggesting that the PKK (the Kurdish Worker's Party) were the ones involved.
The German cops? They are still investigating and have not made any real public statement.
The odds of some right-wing or Nazi-like group? There's simply no evidence laying out there. But the fact that four events occur over a 48-hour period, in four different locations? It's simply speculation. The possibility that some Turkish political action group did it? That would be only speculation as well.
Monday, March 12, 2018
Drunk Guy Story
The story is told by our regional TV network, HR, over a traveler making his way through the Frankfurt Airport...late last week.
The older guy (67), a German, had this great trip planned out from Frankfurt to Thailand. He was taking two expensive bottles of wine with him....in the carry-on luggage.
Security stops him....way over the limit for carry-on liquids. Nope, not going to allow you to go like this.
He moves back to the non-security area....opens up the two bottles and guzzles down the two wines. He passes through the security area, and makes his way to the gate.
I'm guessing at this point, but it took around 30 minutes for the effect to occur, and he tried to find a bathroom....pressing on some door that led to the ramp area instead, and alerting the cops.
Cops apprehend him, and he misses his flight. The talk over the fine for this? Well....he was uncooperative with the cops and entered the ramp....so the cops say near 10,000 Euro. A hearing will be held in a month or so.....to settle upon some amount. Maybe the judge will feel some good nature and cut the amount by half.
The older guy (67), a German, had this great trip planned out from Frankfurt to Thailand. He was taking two expensive bottles of wine with him....in the carry-on luggage.
Security stops him....way over the limit for carry-on liquids. Nope, not going to allow you to go like this.
He moves back to the non-security area....opens up the two bottles and guzzles down the two wines. He passes through the security area, and makes his way to the gate.
I'm guessing at this point, but it took around 30 minutes for the effect to occur, and he tried to find a bathroom....pressing on some door that led to the ramp area instead, and alerting the cops.
Cops apprehend him, and he misses his flight. The talk over the fine for this? Well....he was uncooperative with the cops and entered the ramp....so the cops say near 10,000 Euro. A hearing will be held in a month or so.....to settle upon some amount. Maybe the judge will feel some good nature and cut the amount by half.
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