After the murder episode in Kandel this week, I kinda expected some political fallout over migrants.
The basic story that occurred is that a underage Afghan kid (15 years old) got into a relationship. Somewhere in the past month, things went south in this relationship, and this past week....the kid confronted the German girl (15 as well)....and stabbed her dead. Locals are asking questions, and the authorities are in a fair amount of discussion.
For probably two years, this whole discussion of underage migrants has been around. Over and over, various cases are laid out where it's obvious that the 'kid' is not 15 or 16 years old....but in his twenties.
Out of Bavaria, CSU political folks are calling now for a reliable age determination. They want it mandated throughout Germany.
Some doctors will say that you can do various tests to prove someone is not a juvenile. Others will say that NO reliable form of science or medicine can arrive at a reliable age situation.
Going back to the kid's home country and demanding some factual evidence of life history? Oddly, it's the piece missing out of this story. No one wants to challenge the kid's in any court. This is the part of the theme that I've watched for several years in Germany and be unable to understand.
The German system prior to the last decade was fairly simple. You went into a German embassy in your home-country....showed a passport or identity papers, and then stated your need to apply for residency or asylum in Germany. In roughly a hundred days, they either approved or disapproved your paperwork.
These days....you skip all that paperwork, pay some smugglers several thousand dollars or Euro, and arrive in Germany with or without an ID. If you state you are under seventeen years old.....you get treated differently and it's practically a 99-percent chance that you will be staying. Even if you get into criminal efforts.....sell drugs on the side....or cause trouble, it won't matter....the Germans won't send you away.
As for the possibility that every single migrant unaccompanied kid will be forced to take an age test? It'll never happen. The German court system will stop it....or the Bundestag will drag it's feet enough to prevent this from occurring. How many are actually fake jurniles? Unknown. It might be five-percent.....it might be fifty-percent.
The curious thing, which you could bring up to any German intellectual all hyped up and positive about this game....is that you could have nine-year old Afghan kids seeing this vast open door and stealing enough money to pay-off smugglers and make it all the way into Germany. Thousands, upon thousands of kids....could be on some road from Afghanistan to Germany....simply because of the attitude of German society.
Saturday, December 30, 2017
Frankfurt Train Station Story
One of my favorite railway stations on Earth (I'm from Alabama, if you remember....and we don't exactly have anything much to talk about)....is the Frankfurt Hauptbahnhof (main station).
When I was introduced to the station in 1978, I stood there and admired the structure, the hustle-and-bustle, the mass of people moving constantly, and the timed arrival and departure of trains. Thousands enter the station every hour and depart. If you stood there in the morning rush-hour of 7 AM....you'd be amazed at what goes on.
Oh I agree, there are dozens of negative things about the station. There used to be tons of drug-dealers just outside the frontdoor. You used to have dozens of people laying around in the subway area who were getting over their morning dose of heroin. There are probably a dozen pick-pocket guys active every hour of the day in the station.
This week, I noticed another one of the negative factors.
Around the morning rush-hour....7:25 AM.....in the area around the McDonalds establishment....some guy wandered in and stabbed two guys. Both survived and customers jumped on the stabber-guy.
Cops did a fair amount of conversation with the stabber-guy, and have come to announce now that he basically heard 'voices' in his head to stab folks. The guy is 48 years old.
The two wounded folks? One was an older guy (78 years old) and he was hurt pretty badly (he might be in the hospital for a week or two. The other was 30 years old and marginally hurt.
What'll happen to the stabber-guy? The German judge will likely send him off to a mental ward for a month of tests. A report will be written up and the judge will review it. I'm guessing that he'll force the stabber-guy into some treatment program which has some attachment to it....if you don't improve, you don't leave the facility.
The thing about this though.....if you stand and think about it, in all of Frankfurt, there are probably a hundred people who are on the borderline of doing the same thing. So you are mostly waiting for them to react, hoping they don't kill anyone, and that the judge will do the corrective action required.
This is one of those little problems with the train station....in that you have lots of people transiting the place, who might be crazy or marginally-safe to exist in society. You are depending on just plain luck to survive each day. Sadly for the two guys here in this case.....they happened to decide to stop in at McDonalds to get a coffee that morning and met up with some guy with mental issues and a knife.
When I was introduced to the station in 1978, I stood there and admired the structure, the hustle-and-bustle, the mass of people moving constantly, and the timed arrival and departure of trains. Thousands enter the station every hour and depart. If you stood there in the morning rush-hour of 7 AM....you'd be amazed at what goes on.
Oh I agree, there are dozens of negative things about the station. There used to be tons of drug-dealers just outside the frontdoor. You used to have dozens of people laying around in the subway area who were getting over their morning dose of heroin. There are probably a dozen pick-pocket guys active every hour of the day in the station.
This week, I noticed another one of the negative factors.
Around the morning rush-hour....7:25 AM.....in the area around the McDonalds establishment....some guy wandered in and stabbed two guys. Both survived and customers jumped on the stabber-guy.
Cops did a fair amount of conversation with the stabber-guy, and have come to announce now that he basically heard 'voices' in his head to stab folks. The guy is 48 years old.
The two wounded folks? One was an older guy (78 years old) and he was hurt pretty badly (he might be in the hospital for a week or two. The other was 30 years old and marginally hurt.
What'll happen to the stabber-guy? The German judge will likely send him off to a mental ward for a month of tests. A report will be written up and the judge will review it. I'm guessing that he'll force the stabber-guy into some treatment program which has some attachment to it....if you don't improve, you don't leave the facility.
The thing about this though.....if you stand and think about it, in all of Frankfurt, there are probably a hundred people who are on the borderline of doing the same thing. So you are mostly waiting for them to react, hoping they don't kill anyone, and that the judge will do the corrective action required.
This is one of those little problems with the train station....in that you have lots of people transiting the place, who might be crazy or marginally-safe to exist in society. You are depending on just plain luck to survive each day. Sadly for the two guys here in this case.....they happened to decide to stop in at McDonalds to get a coffee that morning and met up with some guy with mental issues and a knife.
Friday, December 29, 2017
More on the Kandel Murder
Since the murder episode in Kandel (Pfalz area of Germany) a couple of days ago....that I essayed about (young Afghan guy, 15 years old....emotional about a break-up of a relationship ended up stabbin his ex-girlfriend)....there's been more bits and pieces of the story to come out.
I want to note that the national news media finally cover the piece...roughly 60 seconds of video and six lines to the story.
The other bits and pieces?
The kid came into Germany back in 2016 (he would have been 14 years old at that point). He was unaccompanied....meaning no parents or relatives with him.
Back about six weeks ago....cops in the area had to get involved in a situation with him because of an assault at the local school. What is generally said....someone uttered what he perceived to be an insult, and the Afghan kid beat the other kid up. That was probably a sign that he had issues and could not control his emotions.
About a month passed after that episode, and the parents of this dead German girl called the cops to report him on perceived threats, insults, etc.....to their daughter. That was probably another sign that he had issues, and someone within the social structure looking over him....should have stepped in.
The cops decided around 10 days before Christmas that he needed to come and speak with them. A summons was issued out, but later put off (reasons are fuzzy here). One might assume it was a few days prior to Christmas and schedules were full with the cops.
So the cops contacted him a few hours prior to the murder....he needed to show up at that office on Wednesday....the day of the murder.
The problem here, if you go and dig into it....there are thousands of juvenile migrants in Germany and in social home care. You can go back a decade ago and find that the Germans already has serious problems running the program with just German kids who had issues with their German parents, and had left the home. The system to include the juvenile migrants simply was thrown together and it really doesn't address the various emotional issues of these 'kids'. The maturity level is questionable.
What's going to follow here is a long process of investigation. Someone will eventually ask if he is really 15 years old. Then the question of the social program in the local area will come up and if they are capable of actually handling 'clients'. Then the cops will be questioned as to why it took that many days to react. All of this will bring more negative attention in the region (southwest Germany) over the juvenile migrants and the national policy.
A court episode? If they establish that he is truly 15 years old....the most they can hold the kid is three years in a detention center for youths. If they were able to determine that he's mentally unfit to be in the public, then he'd go to a permanent facility (not a prison). If he is determined to be over 17 but not over 20....having a maturity level that is lacking....they could still treat him as a juvenile and not send him off to adult prison. Finally, if they determine that he is over eighteen years old...then full-up murder charges will occur. So the question will go for a number of weeks until they've tested him and gotten more info on his past history in Afghanistan.
Full-up prison for life? You typically don't get that via a German court sentence....however, if you establish the fact that you were mentally deranged and unable to control yourself....you'd get a permanent sentence. With him being an Afghan? Well....yeah, that's another issue. The possibility of getting a deal for a life sentence in Afghanistan? No, that won't happen.
I want to note that the national news media finally cover the piece...roughly 60 seconds of video and six lines to the story.
The other bits and pieces?
The kid came into Germany back in 2016 (he would have been 14 years old at that point). He was unaccompanied....meaning no parents or relatives with him.
Back about six weeks ago....cops in the area had to get involved in a situation with him because of an assault at the local school. What is generally said....someone uttered what he perceived to be an insult, and the Afghan kid beat the other kid up. That was probably a sign that he had issues and could not control his emotions.
About a month passed after that episode, and the parents of this dead German girl called the cops to report him on perceived threats, insults, etc.....to their daughter. That was probably another sign that he had issues, and someone within the social structure looking over him....should have stepped in.
The cops decided around 10 days before Christmas that he needed to come and speak with them. A summons was issued out, but later put off (reasons are fuzzy here). One might assume it was a few days prior to Christmas and schedules were full with the cops.
So the cops contacted him a few hours prior to the murder....he needed to show up at that office on Wednesday....the day of the murder.
The problem here, if you go and dig into it....there are thousands of juvenile migrants in Germany and in social home care. You can go back a decade ago and find that the Germans already has serious problems running the program with just German kids who had issues with their German parents, and had left the home. The system to include the juvenile migrants simply was thrown together and it really doesn't address the various emotional issues of these 'kids'. The maturity level is questionable.
What's going to follow here is a long process of investigation. Someone will eventually ask if he is really 15 years old. Then the question of the social program in the local area will come up and if they are capable of actually handling 'clients'. Then the cops will be questioned as to why it took that many days to react. All of this will bring more negative attention in the region (southwest Germany) over the juvenile migrants and the national policy.
A court episode? If they establish that he is truly 15 years old....the most they can hold the kid is three years in a detention center for youths. If they were able to determine that he's mentally unfit to be in the public, then he'd go to a permanent facility (not a prison). If he is determined to be over 17 but not over 20....having a maturity level that is lacking....they could still treat him as a juvenile and not send him off to adult prison. Finally, if they determine that he is over eighteen years old...then full-up murder charges will occur. So the question will go for a number of weeks until they've tested him and gotten more info on his past history in Afghanistan.
Full-up prison for life? You typically don't get that via a German court sentence....however, if you establish the fact that you were mentally deranged and unable to control yourself....you'd get a permanent sentence. With him being an Afghan? Well....yeah, that's another issue. The possibility of getting a deal for a life sentence in Afghanistan? No, that won't happen.
Extremist Story
I sat and read through a story that comes out of Saudi Arabia, from N-TV, and it left me to pondering.
The Saudis....probably even a decade ago....came to realize that they had a number of men who were hyped-up....perhaps even brain-washed....into extreme behaviors of religion. At some point, I'm guessing they got advice from some western folks....they decided that they could build up a rehab-like program and bring these guys back to reality.
As N-TV tells the story, the Saudis now state that around 3,300 folks have been through the program, and they grade themselves (always a troublesome by-product) with a 86-percent success rate. What happened to the other 14-percent failures? Not mentioned in the report other than saying they went onto prison.
Based on the way the story was told, the complex or facility for this activity kinda reminds me of the German 'Kur'. Germans use the 'Kur' for both physical and mental issues. Typically, it's a hotel complex, with three meals a day....physical activity (pool, hiking, biking, etc)....and group therapy.
It's hard to imagine the group therapy with extremist views on Islam. One has to imagine some counselor leading a discussion....citing the Quran a good bit, and hoping that the guys standing there will open up and reach a level of admitting they got over-enthusiastic about their religion.
In the Saudi case, if you get selected.....there's no waiver or legal fight....you go. If you fail the program? You go onto prison.
The odds of opening up such a facility in any European country? Zero chance. The legal system would say that you were trying to brain-wash folks out of their view of religion, and that just ain't right.
The question here to ponder....did the program really revert these guys back to some normal situation, or did the guys just figure out the better way of hiding their feelings or thoughts? If your choice was to hide thoughts or go off to prison....well, there's not much of a choice.
The Saudis....probably even a decade ago....came to realize that they had a number of men who were hyped-up....perhaps even brain-washed....into extreme behaviors of religion. At some point, I'm guessing they got advice from some western folks....they decided that they could build up a rehab-like program and bring these guys back to reality.
As N-TV tells the story, the Saudis now state that around 3,300 folks have been through the program, and they grade themselves (always a troublesome by-product) with a 86-percent success rate. What happened to the other 14-percent failures? Not mentioned in the report other than saying they went onto prison.
Based on the way the story was told, the complex or facility for this activity kinda reminds me of the German 'Kur'. Germans use the 'Kur' for both physical and mental issues. Typically, it's a hotel complex, with three meals a day....physical activity (pool, hiking, biking, etc)....and group therapy.
It's hard to imagine the group therapy with extremist views on Islam. One has to imagine some counselor leading a discussion....citing the Quran a good bit, and hoping that the guys standing there will open up and reach a level of admitting they got over-enthusiastic about their religion.
In the Saudi case, if you get selected.....there's no waiver or legal fight....you go. If you fail the program? You go onto prison.
The odds of opening up such a facility in any European country? Zero chance. The legal system would say that you were trying to brain-wash folks out of their view of religion, and that just ain't right.
The question here to ponder....did the program really revert these guys back to some normal situation, or did the guys just figure out the better way of hiding their feelings or thoughts? If your choice was to hide thoughts or go off to prison....well, there's not much of a choice.
Thursday, December 28, 2017
The Salafistian Story
This week....ARD (public TV, Channel One) went and did a fairly in depth piece on the Salafistian scene in Germany involving women.
The federal cops of Germany are beginning to realize that some Islamic women (not a lot) are becoming hardcore Salafistian-types.
From the northwest (North Rhine-Westphalia), they've identified one network of women....forty in number...who are actively putting the Salafistian lifestyle up and promoting it. To some degree, they are indoctrinating their own kids into the lifestyle.
For the cops, this is a worry. Almost every single Jihadist-terrorist that they've come across in the past couple of years...has been identified as active in the Salafisitian culture.
I then note a direct quote from the ARD article: "Salafism is a backward-looking, extremely conservative flow of Islam. His followers refer exclusively to the Koran, rejecting any form of modernization."
It's a limited piece to some degree, but it also demonstrates the process of thinking by the cops and aiming at one particular group to worry about. Trying to outlaw it is virtually impossible because of the freedom of speech and freedom of religion given to all Germans by the German Constitution. So the cops are mostly in a watch and view situation.
Recruitment provocateurs? The simple answer is yes. By demonstrating some lifestyle.....a basic culture...a happy-theme, they entice young naive women into some belief that this can all work out and be a great positive in life.
The federal cops of Germany are beginning to realize that some Islamic women (not a lot) are becoming hardcore Salafistian-types.
From the northwest (North Rhine-Westphalia), they've identified one network of women....forty in number...who are actively putting the Salafistian lifestyle up and promoting it. To some degree, they are indoctrinating their own kids into the lifestyle.
For the cops, this is a worry. Almost every single Jihadist-terrorist that they've come across in the past couple of years...has been identified as active in the Salafisitian culture.
I then note a direct quote from the ARD article: "Salafism is a backward-looking, extremely conservative flow of Islam. His followers refer exclusively to the Koran, rejecting any form of modernization."
It's a limited piece to some degree, but it also demonstrates the process of thinking by the cops and aiming at one particular group to worry about. Trying to outlaw it is virtually impossible because of the freedom of speech and freedom of religion given to all Germans by the German Constitution. So the cops are mostly in a watch and view situation.
Recruitment provocateurs? The simple answer is yes. By demonstrating some lifestyle.....a basic culture...a happy-theme, they entice young naive women into some belief that this can all work out and be a great positive in life.
Murder Story
Updated:
There's not a lot of info on this murder, as reported in the Rheinpfalz newspaper this morning.
Way down in the southern part of Rheinland Pfalz....along the French border of Germany is the town of Kandel (population of around 8,000). Cops say that an argument started up inside of a DM (German drug store chain) between some young gal (15 years old) and a Afghan kid (15 years old).
The store? It rests on Lauterberger Strasse....almost at the end of town.
The discussion reached the stage where he pulled out a knife and stabbed her. Ambulance came and the medical crew did everything possible....but she died later at the hospital.
It appears, based on the way that the episode was written....that the young lady had some kind of relationship going with the guy, and it broke up a couple of days prior. He didn't take it well, and this was some public situation where he 'bumped' into her.
That's the basic story.
One might go and suggest that the cops will be suspicious of the kid's age....maybe he's not fifteen years old. We have that problem now in Germany with a fair number of young teenage boys who've shown up without any real ID or family, and state they are 'underage'. The other side of this story is the reaction by the kid to the break-up. Some teachers will likely suggest that more attitude counseling is necessary for both male and female immigrants.
All that events like this do...is stir up regional feelings to be negative with migration.
Update: One final note. While commercial newspapers and news carried this early in the AM of Thursday (it happened mid-afternoon of Wed)....it was about the middle of Thursday before ARD/ZDF (state public TV in Germany) began to carry the basic story. A lot of negativity was dumped on the networks because of the 'stall' seen by the public (due to the migrant being part of the story). The networks did defend their situation....saying it took a while to get the whole story. I won't dump on them or shame them (they get enough already).....but it does prove the point that you need to have access to thirty-odd news sources in Germany to get the true picture of events going on, and as it occurs.
There's not a lot of info on this murder, as reported in the Rheinpfalz newspaper this morning.
Way down in the southern part of Rheinland Pfalz....along the French border of Germany is the town of Kandel (population of around 8,000). Cops say that an argument started up inside of a DM (German drug store chain) between some young gal (15 years old) and a Afghan kid (15 years old).
The store? It rests on Lauterberger Strasse....almost at the end of town.
The discussion reached the stage where he pulled out a knife and stabbed her. Ambulance came and the medical crew did everything possible....but she died later at the hospital.
It appears, based on the way that the episode was written....that the young lady had some kind of relationship going with the guy, and it broke up a couple of days prior. He didn't take it well, and this was some public situation where he 'bumped' into her.
That's the basic story.
One might go and suggest that the cops will be suspicious of the kid's age....maybe he's not fifteen years old. We have that problem now in Germany with a fair number of young teenage boys who've shown up without any real ID or family, and state they are 'underage'. The other side of this story is the reaction by the kid to the break-up. Some teachers will likely suggest that more attitude counseling is necessary for both male and female immigrants.
All that events like this do...is stir up regional feelings to be negative with migration.
Update: One final note. While commercial newspapers and news carried this early in the AM of Thursday (it happened mid-afternoon of Wed)....it was about the middle of Thursday before ARD/ZDF (state public TV in Germany) began to carry the basic story. A lot of negativity was dumped on the networks because of the 'stall' seen by the public (due to the migrant being part of the story). The networks did defend their situation....saying it took a while to get the whole story. I won't dump on them or shame them (they get enough already).....but it does prove the point that you need to have access to thirty-odd news sources in Germany to get the true picture of events going on, and as it occurs.
Sunday, December 24, 2017
The Christmas Card
My wife (the German), works for a company that makes a couple of products and sells them across to grocery operations throughout Germany. This requires a transit situation where pallets are bundled up at the production centered, and a transit company (trucking operation) is hired to pick-up and deliver to stores or grocery warehouses throughout Germany (some even in Austria, the Netherlands, and France).
There's one single transit company which gets the deal, and provides the trucking support. At Christmas time, they typically send gifts to the product company, and 'warm greetings'....being very happy over their contract.
So Friday, the wife came home with a gift, and a card from the boss of the trucking company.
Most of the time, these Christmas cards (even in Germany) are fairly routine and maybe a ten-liner talking about the holiday theme, great business, a profitable year, and expectations for the next year. It's boring stuff.
This card, written by the trucker operation owner...was one of a kind, and not the typical card that you'd expect.
It's about sixty lines....small font because it had to fit onto a card.
So this guy opens with the typical wording (in German)....about the year that passed in Germany, and he carves out a great opening.
Then, he lays out anger and frustration. Politics has created a stagnant atmosphere. Politicians can't solve problems anymore.....they've become part of the problems. Schools are in decaying order. Money is being wasted by the government in record levels. There aren't any leaders to be found. The election in September hasn't found a new government yet. Record levels of tax collection, but there's no clear view of it being spent wisely. Promises of more trucker rest-stops? Forgotten history. Immigrants arriving who turn themselves into terrorists.
It's a passionate piece.....not really a Christmas card type that you'd expect. He doesn't mention any particular political to blame, and you get the impression that he blames all of the folks sitting in Berlin today. None of them seem to be concerned with working-class Germans or their needs. Even at the end of the card.....he doesn't suggest supporting some political party. He just wants real leaders to show up and represent actual Germans.
I asked my wife if this was a typical thing, and the answer was 'no'. Every employee in her company read the card, and noted that they believed exactly what the guy had laid out. In their mind....at least in terms of business, the economy, and problem-solving....the government, and the political parties all deserve some amount of criticism.
I am reminded of Macron of France, and how he gave up on representing one party because of the internal mechanism and failures.....so he made up his own party, and shocked the French political establishment by destroying both the center-right and center-left of France. For years, they had the bulk of votes in the election....and here in 2017....they barely got a total of 20-percent between the two of them combined. I think a Macron-poker table is being prepared in Germany, and the same political frustration will play out in four years as the next election occurs.
The card really did say alot within sixty lines of text, and it wasn't the normal Christmas theme that you'd expect. But it got the message across to the reader.
There's one single transit company which gets the deal, and provides the trucking support. At Christmas time, they typically send gifts to the product company, and 'warm greetings'....being very happy over their contract.
So Friday, the wife came home with a gift, and a card from the boss of the trucking company.
Most of the time, these Christmas cards (even in Germany) are fairly routine and maybe a ten-liner talking about the holiday theme, great business, a profitable year, and expectations for the next year. It's boring stuff.
This card, written by the trucker operation owner...was one of a kind, and not the typical card that you'd expect.
It's about sixty lines....small font because it had to fit onto a card.
So this guy opens with the typical wording (in German)....about the year that passed in Germany, and he carves out a great opening.
Then, he lays out anger and frustration. Politics has created a stagnant atmosphere. Politicians can't solve problems anymore.....they've become part of the problems. Schools are in decaying order. Money is being wasted by the government in record levels. There aren't any leaders to be found. The election in September hasn't found a new government yet. Record levels of tax collection, but there's no clear view of it being spent wisely. Promises of more trucker rest-stops? Forgotten history. Immigrants arriving who turn themselves into terrorists.
It's a passionate piece.....not really a Christmas card type that you'd expect. He doesn't mention any particular political to blame, and you get the impression that he blames all of the folks sitting in Berlin today. None of them seem to be concerned with working-class Germans or their needs. Even at the end of the card.....he doesn't suggest supporting some political party. He just wants real leaders to show up and represent actual Germans.
I asked my wife if this was a typical thing, and the answer was 'no'. Every employee in her company read the card, and noted that they believed exactly what the guy had laid out. In their mind....at least in terms of business, the economy, and problem-solving....the government, and the political parties all deserve some amount of criticism.
I am reminded of Macron of France, and how he gave up on representing one party because of the internal mechanism and failures.....so he made up his own party, and shocked the French political establishment by destroying both the center-right and center-left of France. For years, they had the bulk of votes in the election....and here in 2017....they barely got a total of 20-percent between the two of them combined. I think a Macron-poker table is being prepared in Germany, and the same political frustration will play out in four years as the next election occurs.
The card really did say alot within sixty lines of text, and it wasn't the normal Christmas theme that you'd expect. But it got the message across to the reader.
Saturday, December 23, 2017
More to the Linda Story
I essayed an update to the 'Linda' story about a week ago.
Here in Germany, most folks are now familiar with the German teenager ('Linda') who ran off from home in 2015, and joined up with ISIS in Iraq.
Now 17 years old....Linda has been captured (a couple of months ago) and the Iraqis are debating on what to do with the teen.
The Germans have expressed some hope in retrieving her, and simply getting her returned to Germany.
The general theme by the news media in Germany is that she was simply a naive teenager, with no real understanding of the Jihad business or ISIS. Most people believe that story.
Today, it's been noted in the Brit newspaper....the Daily Mail....that a social media message has been found that leads back to Linda (probably made six to twelve months prior to being taken by Iraqi authorities).
The message? "Because I know that the dear officers for the protection of the constitution and the state police will also be reading this I want to add a few words for those filthy dogs... there are going to be many many more attacks to follow."
Pressured by the ISIS folks to make these kind comments? One can only assume that.
On the whole of the situation, most Germans would like to believe that she's just a naive teenager who got deep into some stuff and had no grasp of the consequences. They'd like a door opened and to allow her back into the country. If some dire negatives come out over her actions while in Iraq? It'll confuse a number of people and make them ask the news media about this whole message being conveyed.
The Iraqis? I don't believe they have any interest in holding her....it just stimulates more journalistic coverage.
Here in Germany, most folks are now familiar with the German teenager ('Linda') who ran off from home in 2015, and joined up with ISIS in Iraq.
Now 17 years old....Linda has been captured (a couple of months ago) and the Iraqis are debating on what to do with the teen.
The Germans have expressed some hope in retrieving her, and simply getting her returned to Germany.
The general theme by the news media in Germany is that she was simply a naive teenager, with no real understanding of the Jihad business or ISIS. Most people believe that story.
Today, it's been noted in the Brit newspaper....the Daily Mail....that a social media message has been found that leads back to Linda (probably made six to twelve months prior to being taken by Iraqi authorities).
The message? "Because I know that the dear officers for the protection of the constitution and the state police will also be reading this I want to add a few words for those filthy dogs... there are going to be many many more attacks to follow."
Pressured by the ISIS folks to make these kind comments? One can only assume that.
On the whole of the situation, most Germans would like to believe that she's just a naive teenager who got deep into some stuff and had no grasp of the consequences. They'd like a door opened and to allow her back into the country. If some dire negatives come out over her actions while in Iraq? It'll confuse a number of people and make them ask the news media about this whole message being conveyed.
The Iraqis? I don't believe they have any interest in holding her....it just stimulates more journalistic coverage.
Robbery Story
For at least three years, I've been noting in German news stories the continue robbery efforts over bank ATM machines.
Typically, some robbery crew (they specialize in this episode) come up with a technique and approach a ATM machine late at night. In less then three minutes, they've set the machine to blow up....taking the 'loot' in the machine (typically not more than 100,000 Euro). The destruction to the machine 'totals' out the ATM (you can figure at least 50,000 Euro for the machine), and then the damage to the building will usually be a minimum of 100,000 Euro. Cops seem to never catch these guys, and it's a fairly safe way of making an income illegally.
This week, I noticed a new trend that got reported (page three type story).
Down in Steinwenden, Germany (just a short drive outside of Kaiserslautern), the same type crew came up to a train station (smaller structure), and blew up the ticket machine.
Damage to the machine? Totaled out....30,000 Euro. What they got out of the machine? Well....cops hint near 3,000 Euro.
Yep....all that effort, for a lousy 3,000 Euro, and it'll cost ten times that amount to replace the machine.
No hints at who did it....they simply disappeared into the landscape. Neighbors heard the explosion....looked over and simply saw a white van leave.
Every single village along a train railway.....has one of these ticket machines. If this becomes a trend? It's a heck of a cost problem for the Bahn folks, and you just shake your head because it's all leading to a fairly low amount of money.
Typically, some robbery crew (they specialize in this episode) come up with a technique and approach a ATM machine late at night. In less then three minutes, they've set the machine to blow up....taking the 'loot' in the machine (typically not more than 100,000 Euro). The destruction to the machine 'totals' out the ATM (you can figure at least 50,000 Euro for the machine), and then the damage to the building will usually be a minimum of 100,000 Euro. Cops seem to never catch these guys, and it's a fairly safe way of making an income illegally.
This week, I noticed a new trend that got reported (page three type story).
Down in Steinwenden, Germany (just a short drive outside of Kaiserslautern), the same type crew came up to a train station (smaller structure), and blew up the ticket machine.
Damage to the machine? Totaled out....30,000 Euro. What they got out of the machine? Well....cops hint near 3,000 Euro.
Yep....all that effort, for a lousy 3,000 Euro, and it'll cost ten times that amount to replace the machine.
No hints at who did it....they simply disappeared into the landscape. Neighbors heard the explosion....looked over and simply saw a white van leave.
Every single village along a train railway.....has one of these ticket machines. If this becomes a trend? It's a heck of a cost problem for the Bahn folks, and you just shake your head because it's all leading to a fairly low amount of money.
Theft Story
Down in Darmstadt (a stone's throw from where I live).....they have the Darmstadt Waldfriedhof (the forest cemetery). It's fairly well known to the locals, and there mixed into the grounds....a couple of statues and monuments.
This week, the cops came up and announced that a robbery had occurred on the cemetery grounds. Back about thirty to forty years ago.....they laid three flat 'statues' to honor the victims of WW II from Darmstadt. Made out of bronze.....it's safe to say that each one of these flat statues weighed at least a thousand pounds...maybe even up to 1,500 pounds....EACH.
Someone had entered the grounds between 11 and 22 December, and simply walked out with the three statues.
When you consider the weight involved and the size....it would have required a pallet jack and at least two guys to load them up.....pull it to some parking lot....with a truck having some kind of lift on the rear.
Course, what would you do with three bronze statues? Melt them down, and then what? Or did they intend to use them somewhere else?
I suspect the cops are standing there and shaking their heads. This is not the kind of theft that you typically have to mess with. Cars make sense to steal. Motorcycles. Bikes. Jewelry. But statues?
Consequences? Well, the mayor says now that the cemetery has to be locked up in the late hours. No one says who will be doing the lock-up job. Course, then you have to worry.....will some late-walker get stuck in the locked up cemetery after the gates are closed?
Mafia theft? Young punks with time on their hands? Or just some crazy guy with an agenda? Well....it's hard to figure the strategy on this deal.
This week, the cops came up and announced that a robbery had occurred on the cemetery grounds. Back about thirty to forty years ago.....they laid three flat 'statues' to honor the victims of WW II from Darmstadt. Made out of bronze.....it's safe to say that each one of these flat statues weighed at least a thousand pounds...maybe even up to 1,500 pounds....EACH.
Someone had entered the grounds between 11 and 22 December, and simply walked out with the three statues.
When you consider the weight involved and the size....it would have required a pallet jack and at least two guys to load them up.....pull it to some parking lot....with a truck having some kind of lift on the rear.
Course, what would you do with three bronze statues? Melt them down, and then what? Or did they intend to use them somewhere else?
I suspect the cops are standing there and shaking their heads. This is not the kind of theft that you typically have to mess with. Cars make sense to steal. Motorcycles. Bikes. Jewelry. But statues?
Consequences? Well, the mayor says now that the cemetery has to be locked up in the late hours. No one says who will be doing the lock-up job. Course, then you have to worry.....will some late-walker get stuck in the locked up cemetery after the gates are closed?
Mafia theft? Young punks with time on their hands? Or just some crazy guy with an agenda? Well....it's hard to figure the strategy on this deal.
Thursday, December 21, 2017
Further Tax Reform Chat
I sat for most of the afternoon contemplating all the negative talk by the German business analysts over the new US tax reform episode.
The key phrase used by the Germans over and over.....'unfair competition'.
After a while, I sat and thought.....what exactly will the Germans buy....from US companies?
Little is said in these articles....just that product from the US would have this unfair advantage.
PT Cruisers? Well....a couple thousand a year make it into Germany, but it's not exactly a vehicle that Germans dream about.
The Ford Mustang? Once you get around to the gas mileage and the pricing scheme in Germany (nearly 40-thousand Euro with taxes figured in)....it might be a dream car and you might be able to sell five thousand a year in Germany.
Getting the dollar exchange rate flipped to a really low rate....making it ultra-cheap to buy US products? It's already down to around .82 dollar to the Euro. It's hard to see it pushed much further down.
US furniture? Nope.
US TV's? Nope, they aren't made in the US anyway.
US prescription drugs? Probably won't be occurring.
US booze? Well....yeah. I could see tons of Jack Daniels moving into Germany.
T-shirts? Clothing? Most are made in Mexico and I don't that moving back into the US.
So you go down the list and kinda wonder.....what exactly will be this unfair advantage and what kind of stuff will fit into this?
US steel cheaper than Indian-made steel? No....won't happen. Fruit and vegetables? There's a ton of stuff already coming in from Peru, Brazil, and Egypt.....so I don't see the US market overcoming the pricing of that.
TV programming? Well....more stuff like the 'Flash' might sell to German teens, I admit that.
Maybe there's more drama to this story, but I kinda doubt that the companies are going to get some side-door opened into the EU.
The key phrase used by the Germans over and over.....'unfair competition'.
After a while, I sat and thought.....what exactly will the Germans buy....from US companies?
Little is said in these articles....just that product from the US would have this unfair advantage.
PT Cruisers? Well....a couple thousand a year make it into Germany, but it's not exactly a vehicle that Germans dream about.
The Ford Mustang? Once you get around to the gas mileage and the pricing scheme in Germany (nearly 40-thousand Euro with taxes figured in)....it might be a dream car and you might be able to sell five thousand a year in Germany.
Getting the dollar exchange rate flipped to a really low rate....making it ultra-cheap to buy US products? It's already down to around .82 dollar to the Euro. It's hard to see it pushed much further down.
US furniture? Nope.
US TV's? Nope, they aren't made in the US anyway.
US prescription drugs? Probably won't be occurring.
US booze? Well....yeah. I could see tons of Jack Daniels moving into Germany.
T-shirts? Clothing? Most are made in Mexico and I don't that moving back into the US.
So you go down the list and kinda wonder.....what exactly will be this unfair advantage and what kind of stuff will fit into this?
US steel cheaper than Indian-made steel? No....won't happen. Fruit and vegetables? There's a ton of stuff already coming in from Peru, Brazil, and Egypt.....so I don't see the US market overcoming the pricing of that.
TV programming? Well....more stuff like the 'Flash' might sell to German teens, I admit that.
Maybe there's more drama to this story, but I kinda doubt that the companies are going to get some side-door opened into the EU.
BVB Bomber Court Opens
One of the more unusual court cases ever in Germany.....opens shortly, the BVB-bomber episode.
To lay out the episode....back in mid-April, we had this major soccer team bus which had left a hotel for a game (Borussia Dortmund 09 is the name of the team).
They got about two minutes out of the hotel area, when some bomb went off next to the bus. One player was cut to some degree as the glass was impacted, but the bulk of the team was simply shocked....not injured.
Cops? They swarmed the local area, and great fear came out of possible terrorist action.
Then the folks at the hotel had this odd feeling. They had this weird guy who'd demanded to have a room on the front of the hotel....with windows facing the main road where the bomb had gone off. They told the cops about this weird guy.
Cops go, and review the guy....asking questions, and then arrest him.
What unfolds is this. This individual had some kind of scheme to buy stock in the team (they are the Frankfurt exchange). He had an investment strategy that involved the stock dropping massively after the bombing. The best guess is that he figured he'd clear near half-a-million Euro ($600,000 US dollars).
The reality is that the stock DID NOT drop like he thought it would, and he basically cleared near $7,000 US dollars.
A pretty stupid strategy but he was convinced it'd work.
Total cop time invested? That's the interesting part to the story.....there are 70 folders prepared, and near 18,000 pages of material. The court suggests that they can wrap this up in roughly 18 days.....more or less. Players of the team called in? Well, there is a suggestion that several will be called to testify.
What the guy might get? Folks are careful not to speculate on this. Just the physical threat is significant enough to get a decade in jail. Then you come to the speculative nature of the stock market and the manipulation involved. One might think a couple of years on this as a minimum.....IF convicted.
A page one story? No.....but for the team, BVB, this is number one news for the year.
To lay out the episode....back in mid-April, we had this major soccer team bus which had left a hotel for a game (Borussia Dortmund 09 is the name of the team).
They got about two minutes out of the hotel area, when some bomb went off next to the bus. One player was cut to some degree as the glass was impacted, but the bulk of the team was simply shocked....not injured.
Cops? They swarmed the local area, and great fear came out of possible terrorist action.
Then the folks at the hotel had this odd feeling. They had this weird guy who'd demanded to have a room on the front of the hotel....with windows facing the main road where the bomb had gone off. They told the cops about this weird guy.
Cops go, and review the guy....asking questions, and then arrest him.
What unfolds is this. This individual had some kind of scheme to buy stock in the team (they are the Frankfurt exchange). He had an investment strategy that involved the stock dropping massively after the bombing. The best guess is that he figured he'd clear near half-a-million Euro ($600,000 US dollars).
The reality is that the stock DID NOT drop like he thought it would, and he basically cleared near $7,000 US dollars.
A pretty stupid strategy but he was convinced it'd work.
Total cop time invested? That's the interesting part to the story.....there are 70 folders prepared, and near 18,000 pages of material. The court suggests that they can wrap this up in roughly 18 days.....more or less. Players of the team called in? Well, there is a suggestion that several will be called to testify.
What the guy might get? Folks are careful not to speculate on this. Just the physical threat is significant enough to get a decade in jail. Then you come to the speculative nature of the stock market and the manipulation involved. One might think a couple of years on this as a minimum.....IF convicted.
A page one story? No.....but for the team, BVB, this is number one news for the year.
Wednesday, December 20, 2017
The French Guy Story
It's one of those stories that ought to be a plot to some movie.
Over at Charles De Gaulle Airport....this homeless guy was simply walking around at the complex and came to this door of a cash-handling agency at the airport. No one was in....the door should have been secure. It wasn't.
He pressed on the handle.....the door opened.
In this area that he walked through....were two bags awaiting delivery.
He picked them up...then walked out.
Amount in the bags? Three-hundred-thousand Euro.
So far, the French cops have not found the guy. They have video and a decent picture of the guy. Some suggest that they've encountered him before and know the guy's ID.
Will the guy show up? It's hard to say.
My guess is that he walked out and found a quiet place to open up the bags. He was probably expecting thirty thousand, and probably was a bit surprised. Now you'd have to sit and ponder over the French guy and the path ahead. Do you stick around Paris? Do you board some train? Do you just hitch a ride to Spain?
It's the kind of story that you could turn into some two-hour movie and make women weep by the end over some poor idiot French guy, his remarkable luck, and his woes.
Over at Charles De Gaulle Airport....this homeless guy was simply walking around at the complex and came to this door of a cash-handling agency at the airport. No one was in....the door should have been secure. It wasn't.
He pressed on the handle.....the door opened.
In this area that he walked through....were two bags awaiting delivery.
He picked them up...then walked out.
Amount in the bags? Three-hundred-thousand Euro.
So far, the French cops have not found the guy. They have video and a decent picture of the guy. Some suggest that they've encountered him before and know the guy's ID.
Will the guy show up? It's hard to say.
My guess is that he walked out and found a quiet place to open up the bags. He was probably expecting thirty thousand, and probably was a bit surprised. Now you'd have to sit and ponder over the French guy and the path ahead. Do you stick around Paris? Do you board some train? Do you just hitch a ride to Spain?
It's the kind of story that you could turn into some two-hour movie and make women weep by the end over some poor idiot French guy, his remarkable luck, and his woes.
The Sharia Law Story
It's a page two type story that came out today via SWR (public TV in Germany).....over a Sharia law divorce.
About four years ago, some couple had come into Germany and in the midst of chaos....the husband decided 'enough' and divorced his wife with the normal Sharia law method (with no paperwork, and no German court involvement). The German authorities got called into the situation and told the guy....no, that just wasn't going to work in Germany.
So this legal case has been working itself through the German courts, and this week reached a verdict in the EU Supreme Court. "No", it's just not going to be accepted in the EU. You need legal German paperwork to divorce your wife or husband.
It's not much of a shocker. I think most German legal minds kinda predicted this, and the guy exhausted just about every single method possible in the EU.
About four years ago, some couple had come into Germany and in the midst of chaos....the husband decided 'enough' and divorced his wife with the normal Sharia law method (with no paperwork, and no German court involvement). The German authorities got called into the situation and told the guy....no, that just wasn't going to work in Germany.
So this legal case has been working itself through the German courts, and this week reached a verdict in the EU Supreme Court. "No", it's just not going to be accepted in the EU. You need legal German paperwork to divorce your wife or husband.
It's not much of a shocker. I think most German legal minds kinda predicted this, and the guy exhausted just about every single method possible in the EU.
Tuesday, December 19, 2017
An Odd Story Out of Malta
Focus put up this story this morning......it's one of those page three type stories that is a bit odd.
So, this German kid (17 years old) went on a trip to Malta back in the summer of 2016. He ended up dead. The authorities did an investigation, and can't really explain how he died. The kid's body? After the investigation, it was shipped back to Germany.
As they were preparing for the burial, there was this odd discovery....the kid's body is missing a number of internal organs (the heart, brain, lungs, liver, stomach, small intestine, pancreas, right kidney).
The parents can't really believe much of anything that the authorities of Malta say, and they want a complete investigation.
I looked at the basic story told. The kid started out the day on a bike....and later found in a crevice...on the south of the isle (near the Dingli Cliffs). How he got off the bike and into a crevice....is a big unknown.
Then you have this odd thing....no shoes. Cops found none.
The bike? It was within a couple of yards of the crevice. The only scenario here is that he stopped....to admire something, and fell into the crevice. The shoes? Nowhere to be found.
The internal organs? You would think the Malta folks would have examined them, and then returned them.....but no. The idea of some transplant having occurred? You'd need a card from the victim (he had none) or permission of the parents (never asked).
The kid's camera? Nowhere to be found. The cellphone? Nowhere to be found. The backpack? Nowhere to be found.
My humble guess? It's a crazy idea but I think this kid was selected by someone....to provide certain organs that were on must-acquire list. I know, it's pretty crazy. But the folks who would have done the autopsy could easily put a lot of this whole to rest.....aren't doing so. It just begs more questions.
So, this German kid (17 years old) went on a trip to Malta back in the summer of 2016. He ended up dead. The authorities did an investigation, and can't really explain how he died. The kid's body? After the investigation, it was shipped back to Germany.
As they were preparing for the burial, there was this odd discovery....the kid's body is missing a number of internal organs (the heart, brain, lungs, liver, stomach, small intestine, pancreas, right kidney).
The parents can't really believe much of anything that the authorities of Malta say, and they want a complete investigation.
I looked at the basic story told. The kid started out the day on a bike....and later found in a crevice...on the south of the isle (near the Dingli Cliffs). How he got off the bike and into a crevice....is a big unknown.
Then you have this odd thing....no shoes. Cops found none.
The bike? It was within a couple of yards of the crevice. The only scenario here is that he stopped....to admire something, and fell into the crevice. The shoes? Nowhere to be found.
The internal organs? You would think the Malta folks would have examined them, and then returned them.....but no. The idea of some transplant having occurred? You'd need a card from the victim (he had none) or permission of the parents (never asked).
The kid's camera? Nowhere to be found. The cellphone? Nowhere to be found. The backpack? Nowhere to be found.
My humble guess? It's a crazy idea but I think this kid was selected by someone....to provide certain organs that were on must-acquire list. I know, it's pretty crazy. But the folks who would have done the autopsy could easily put a lot of this whole to rest.....aren't doing so. It just begs more questions.
South Tyrol Story
Most folks don't realize it....but the extreme north section of Italy.....South Tyrol....was not originally a part of Italy.
This mountainous region of Italy, up until 1919 (end of WW I) was a part of the Austria-Hungarian Empire. The allies in WW I made up some 'promise' to Italy, to get them on the side of France-England....to give this chunk of land over to Italy, if they entered the war. The promise was carried out at the conclusion of the war.
If you ever go and drive through the region, you might note that it's about 2.5 times the size of Rhode Island. Money-wise, they make a ton of money off tourism, skiing, and agriculture (apples are a major product).
After the war, there was a bit of grumbling over the way this was handled. In the last decade, there's been some folks talking over the idea of independence. Several other states in the northern region of Italy have also discussed the matter of leaving....mostly because of the taxation and the fact that they are covering a major part of the taxation base for the government of Italy.
This topic comes up this week because of the new government in Italy. The legislature met and discussed this new idea....they would offer (with some talks with Italy required)....Austrian citizenship to folks who live in South Tyrol. The number we might be talking about? Somewhere in the 515,000 range.
The Italian reaction to this? 'Frustrated' would be a good phrase to use. In their mind, it just complicates matters more, and encourages some future-exit campaign.
Within South Tyrol's region? This was well received. The region kinda votes in a right-wing way and any method of getting back into Austria would be a positive.
How many folks in the region speak German? I went looking up this subject. The statistic given is about two out of every three speak German.
My observation of this little offer by Austria is that a bit of mess was created in 1919 with this land movement being a 'gift' by England and France, to Italy. Here we are a hundred years later, and Austria has basically planted a little idea of the return of the property. For Italy....just talking over this and possibly losing a big money-maker for the taxation folks? No way.
How many South Tyrol folks would vote to go back into Austria? Unknown. My guess is that it's a minimum of 50-percent.
It's one of those stories that might go nowhere, or in a dozen years....might be a major episode.
This mountainous region of Italy, up until 1919 (end of WW I) was a part of the Austria-Hungarian Empire. The allies in WW I made up some 'promise' to Italy, to get them on the side of France-England....to give this chunk of land over to Italy, if they entered the war. The promise was carried out at the conclusion of the war.
If you ever go and drive through the region, you might note that it's about 2.5 times the size of Rhode Island. Money-wise, they make a ton of money off tourism, skiing, and agriculture (apples are a major product).
After the war, there was a bit of grumbling over the way this was handled. In the last decade, there's been some folks talking over the idea of independence. Several other states in the northern region of Italy have also discussed the matter of leaving....mostly because of the taxation and the fact that they are covering a major part of the taxation base for the government of Italy.
This topic comes up this week because of the new government in Italy. The legislature met and discussed this new idea....they would offer (with some talks with Italy required)....Austrian citizenship to folks who live in South Tyrol. The number we might be talking about? Somewhere in the 515,000 range.
The Italian reaction to this? 'Frustrated' would be a good phrase to use. In their mind, it just complicates matters more, and encourages some future-exit campaign.
Within South Tyrol's region? This was well received. The region kinda votes in a right-wing way and any method of getting back into Austria would be a positive.
How many folks in the region speak German? I went looking up this subject. The statistic given is about two out of every three speak German.
My observation of this little offer by Austria is that a bit of mess was created in 1919 with this land movement being a 'gift' by England and France, to Italy. Here we are a hundred years later, and Austria has basically planted a little idea of the return of the property. For Italy....just talking over this and possibly losing a big money-maker for the taxation folks? No way.
How many South Tyrol folks would vote to go back into Austria? Unknown. My guess is that it's a minimum of 50-percent.
It's one of those stories that might go nowhere, or in a dozen years....might be a major episode.
The Medical School Story
The German Supreme Court stood up this morning and told the government that the current method that is used by German public colleges to select folks for medical school.....won't pass the law. So the court said.....you've got two years (end of 2019) for the federal and state governments of Germany to reform the method of selection for medical school.
The instruction for change? There needs to be some safeguard method written into the rules for equal opportunities and there has to be a standard form of interview used for aptitude interviews by the selection staff of candidates....in simple words....the same identical questionnaire.
In an average year, there are 11,000 open slots that open up via the German university system. Total number of applicants on a yearly basis? Well....62,000 folks.
You can just imagine the frustration of these kids.
What generally happens is that you come up and present your grades and paperwork....then go to an interview with the selection committee. You get ranked. They can turn you down, but keep you in the rotation.....so your name is on the list but it might be three to five years before you get your chance in the system.
So the kid sits there and decides....ok, he won't waste his time....he'll go to nursing school and knock out that degree now, and just wait four years for the next open medical school slot.
Why not open up the schools and add another 300 professors or instructors nationwide? Well....that's not how the German medical school system works. Back in the 1990s when Bill Gates told the university in Germany of the coming need for more IT engineers....the German heads of the university system just laughed. Four years later, Bill Gates was proven correct, and the Germans had an enormous IT sector ready for new employees who didn't exist.
The German court system has a unique feature in that they can declare a law invalid, and force the legislative system to come in and repair the law (replace it). Unlike the US system, where it's simply thrown out....there is a period of time given to the legislature to rewrite this and present something that fits what the court prescribes. Can the German legislature refuse to rewrite it? Yes....although that rarely happens.
The instruction for change? There needs to be some safeguard method written into the rules for equal opportunities and there has to be a standard form of interview used for aptitude interviews by the selection staff of candidates....in simple words....the same identical questionnaire.
In an average year, there are 11,000 open slots that open up via the German university system. Total number of applicants on a yearly basis? Well....62,000 folks.
You can just imagine the frustration of these kids.
What generally happens is that you come up and present your grades and paperwork....then go to an interview with the selection committee. You get ranked. They can turn you down, but keep you in the rotation.....so your name is on the list but it might be three to five years before you get your chance in the system.
So the kid sits there and decides....ok, he won't waste his time....he'll go to nursing school and knock out that degree now, and just wait four years for the next open medical school slot.
Why not open up the schools and add another 300 professors or instructors nationwide? Well....that's not how the German medical school system works. Back in the 1990s when Bill Gates told the university in Germany of the coming need for more IT engineers....the German heads of the university system just laughed. Four years later, Bill Gates was proven correct, and the Germans had an enormous IT sector ready for new employees who didn't exist.
The German court system has a unique feature in that they can declare a law invalid, and force the legislative system to come in and repair the law (replace it). Unlike the US system, where it's simply thrown out....there is a period of time given to the legislature to rewrite this and present something that fits what the court prescribes. Can the German legislature refuse to rewrite it? Yes....although that rarely happens.
Monday, December 18, 2017
TV Last Night
Hart Aber Fair came on last night (Channel One, ARD, German public TV). It's one of the top live forum pieces on public TV.
So the round-table topic last night was....drum-roll please.....coalition-building. Since the election in late-September, this has been talked about, emphasized, analyzed, micro-analyzed, and brought tears to the eyes of most folks. I might even go and suggest that 50-percent of the working-class Germans don't care anymore.
For whatever reason, they decided on the round-table selection last night, to invite a stand-up comedian onto the group. Typically, this wouldn't happen.....you'd never mix politics and cynical behavior onto a serious forum situation.
The guy selected? Abdelkarim. He's a 2nd generation German (of Moroccan parents). He's actually studied law, and is fairly clever.
At some point in the forum chatter....he uttered the phrase: : "It's almost funny that the two biggest losers in the Bundestag election now want to reunite together. "
It's one of those blunt points that will trigger some folks to sit there and analyze his statement. He is correct.
I'm an outsider to this whole discussion and don't really care who heads the German government. But if you looked at the weak nature of both the CDU and SPD (the two top parties in Germany at present), then you measure what they were twenty and thirty years ago.....you'd shake your head. Neither party shows much enthusiasm, and roughly 45-percent of the nation voted against both of them combined.
Maybe Germans need some humor to liven up this situation, but I doubt that it'll fix anything.
So the round-table topic last night was....drum-roll please.....coalition-building. Since the election in late-September, this has been talked about, emphasized, analyzed, micro-analyzed, and brought tears to the eyes of most folks. I might even go and suggest that 50-percent of the working-class Germans don't care anymore.
For whatever reason, they decided on the round-table selection last night, to invite a stand-up comedian onto the group. Typically, this wouldn't happen.....you'd never mix politics and cynical behavior onto a serious forum situation.
The guy selected? Abdelkarim. He's a 2nd generation German (of Moroccan parents). He's actually studied law, and is fairly clever.
At some point in the forum chatter....he uttered the phrase: : "It's almost funny that the two biggest losers in the Bundestag election now want to reunite together. "
It's one of those blunt points that will trigger some folks to sit there and analyze his statement. He is correct.
I'm an outsider to this whole discussion and don't really care who heads the German government. But if you looked at the weak nature of both the CDU and SPD (the two top parties in Germany at present), then you measure what they were twenty and thirty years ago.....you'd shake your head. Neither party shows much enthusiasm, and roughly 45-percent of the nation voted against both of them combined.
Maybe Germans need some humor to liven up this situation, but I doubt that it'll fix anything.
Austria Changing
Austria wrapped up it's coalition talks, and the new government is set. As much as folks thought the Presidential election was the 'big' deal and getting a Green Party President would stabilize things.....well, this center-right and right-wing government have reset the table entirely.
If you were an immigrant and considering Austria as a destination.....they've reshuffled the benefits, and it probably won't be that great of a deal.
For example. Prior to this government, you could become an immigrant and get a 'bonus' of 827 Euro upon arrival. Now? It's in the 550 Euro range.
The monthly payout for a family? In the previous government, you could make around 1,688 Euro per month.....now, it's maxed at 1,500 Euro.
Now when you arrive and hand over the paperwork.....they will ask for your cellphone. The authorities will read through the data to establish your ID and understand your plans or itinerary. If you fail to hand it over or lie about it existing? Well....that pretty much screws you over if they find out about the phone existing later.
Added to this.....your medical confidentiality will not exist if you have a "basic care" relevant disease....like for example....TB.
Will it make for a lesser number of asylum applicants? No one really suggests that. The cellphone idea probably will be brought up in Germany, but I doubt that they'd go that far.
If you were an immigrant and considering Austria as a destination.....they've reshuffled the benefits, and it probably won't be that great of a deal.
For example. Prior to this government, you could become an immigrant and get a 'bonus' of 827 Euro upon arrival. Now? It's in the 550 Euro range.
The monthly payout for a family? In the previous government, you could make around 1,688 Euro per month.....now, it's maxed at 1,500 Euro.
Now when you arrive and hand over the paperwork.....they will ask for your cellphone. The authorities will read through the data to establish your ID and understand your plans or itinerary. If you fail to hand it over or lie about it existing? Well....that pretty much screws you over if they find out about the phone existing later.
Added to this.....your medical confidentiality will not exist if you have a "basic care" relevant disease....like for example....TB.
Will it make for a lesser number of asylum applicants? No one really suggests that. The cellphone idea probably will be brought up in Germany, but I doubt that they'd go that far.
Migration Story
This morning, ARD (Channel One, public TV in Germany) had a short update on immigrants, asylum-seekers, and migrants in Germany.
The total number for 2017? The government now estimates that by the end of November.....they were at 173,000....so you can figure by 1 January.....it'll be less than 200,000.
Near the average of thirty years? Yes.....on average, they used to be around 200,000 to 250,000 per year, which is a big difference from the 2015 number of 900,000 to 1,000,000.
Last year (2016), it was near 280,000.
The big difference? The route from Greece to Germany is blocked, and the incoming crowd from Italy are stuck in waiting centers because of the limited flow out to the EU countries.
The total number for 2017? The government now estimates that by the end of November.....they were at 173,000....so you can figure by 1 January.....it'll be less than 200,000.
Near the average of thirty years? Yes.....on average, they used to be around 200,000 to 250,000 per year, which is a big difference from the 2015 number of 900,000 to 1,000,000.
Last year (2016), it was near 280,000.
The big difference? The route from Greece to Germany is blocked, and the incoming crowd from Italy are stuck in waiting centers because of the limited flow out to the EU countries.
Sunday, December 17, 2017
The 500-Euro Bill Story
A couple of years ago, the EU (through the ECB) decided that they'd dump the 500-Euro bill. The chief reason? A fair perception that it was readily used by criminals. You'd still have the 100 and 200 Euro bills around.
It came up this week (via a Focus article) that the Bundesbank of Germany kinda disagrees with this logic of dumping the 500-Euro bill.
Some thoughts are that there's more security being added into the bill process and that customers (at least in Germany) want the 500-Euro bill to return.
There's a study mentioned in the middle of this article....65,000 Germans surveyed, and around 20-percent admitted that they handled 200/500 Euro bills on an occasional basis. These people still wanted access to the bills.
What was really behind the dumping originally? Some folks think that money-laundering, under-the-table payments, and black-market activities. By dumping the 500-Euro notes, you simply pushed all the activity down to the 200-Euro level. I'm not sure that really fixed much of anything.
It came up this week (via a Focus article) that the Bundesbank of Germany kinda disagrees with this logic of dumping the 500-Euro bill.
Some thoughts are that there's more security being added into the bill process and that customers (at least in Germany) want the 500-Euro bill to return.
There's a study mentioned in the middle of this article....65,000 Germans surveyed, and around 20-percent admitted that they handled 200/500 Euro bills on an occasional basis. These people still wanted access to the bills.
What was really behind the dumping originally? Some folks think that money-laundering, under-the-table payments, and black-market activities. By dumping the 500-Euro notes, you simply pushed all the activity down to the 200-Euro level. I'm not sure that really fixed much of anything.
The Education Story
Around a decade ago in Germany, a battle of sorts was started within the German political arena. The center of attention? Education in Germany.
ARD put up an interesting article over the issue and where things stand today with the battle.
Most German parents will agree that schools are in some way....decaying. Maintenance is haphazard and you go through a German state where some kids are in an ultra-modern building, and ten miles away....there are kids in some 1950s building.
The lack of teachers? This gets brought up in several states now because interest isn't that great to become a teacher anymore.
The ARD article does point out a recent survey where German poverty parents don't think they have the same level playing field as well-to-do parents.
Another dividing point is that education is generally regarded as a state by state issue. With sixteen German states.....there are sixteen programs. Some folks, especially in Berlin....want a national program, and for it to be led by German federal people (not the state by state authority as exists today).
About a decade ago, while living in the Kaiserslautern region and with my son in the local German school....I sat and watched the educational dimwits plan out their big solution. My son was in a building which was regarded as the last of the 1950s-style buildings in the entire district. For probably twenty years.....you could have watched various other school buildings going through renovation and the interest to bring this one building up....simply wasn't there.
So the day finally came....the master plan....probably half-a-million Euro to be poured into this building with new windows, new floors, etc.
It was planned in a haphazard way....the kids were supposed to go ahead and use part of the building while they did various sections.
In my son's case....he'd never see the end-result because this would take roughly three years to complete.
The day finally came and the school was done. It looked ultra modern. It looked great.
Then, the regional school board made the decision....they were hauling all of the kids out of this school and redistributing them to another building within Kaiserslautern. The newly renovated school? It was going to be for the high achiever school kids, who would be bused into the town (20 minute ride from Kaiserslautern). Virtually every single parent from this village was frustrated at how this all came about. You were basically shipping three-hundred-odd kids from this village into the city, and shipping three-hundred-odd kids from Kaiserslautern into this village....to a newly renovated building.
From my own observation, you've got various federal (Berlin), state, and local bureaucrats with varying agendas and unable to really connect to the students or the parents. In some ways, it's just like the US at this point with lots of people claiming to have the solution but never seeming to have a solution which really fits.
ARD put up an interesting article over the issue and where things stand today with the battle.
Most German parents will agree that schools are in some way....decaying. Maintenance is haphazard and you go through a German state where some kids are in an ultra-modern building, and ten miles away....there are kids in some 1950s building.
The lack of teachers? This gets brought up in several states now because interest isn't that great to become a teacher anymore.
The ARD article does point out a recent survey where German poverty parents don't think they have the same level playing field as well-to-do parents.
Another dividing point is that education is generally regarded as a state by state issue. With sixteen German states.....there are sixteen programs. Some folks, especially in Berlin....want a national program, and for it to be led by German federal people (not the state by state authority as exists today).
About a decade ago, while living in the Kaiserslautern region and with my son in the local German school....I sat and watched the educational dimwits plan out their big solution. My son was in a building which was regarded as the last of the 1950s-style buildings in the entire district. For probably twenty years.....you could have watched various other school buildings going through renovation and the interest to bring this one building up....simply wasn't there.
So the day finally came....the master plan....probably half-a-million Euro to be poured into this building with new windows, new floors, etc.
It was planned in a haphazard way....the kids were supposed to go ahead and use part of the building while they did various sections.
In my son's case....he'd never see the end-result because this would take roughly three years to complete.
The day finally came and the school was done. It looked ultra modern. It looked great.
Then, the regional school board made the decision....they were hauling all of the kids out of this school and redistributing them to another building within Kaiserslautern. The newly renovated school? It was going to be for the high achiever school kids, who would be bused into the town (20 minute ride from Kaiserslautern). Virtually every single parent from this village was frustrated at how this all came about. You were basically shipping three-hundred-odd kids from this village into the city, and shipping three-hundred-odd kids from Kaiserslautern into this village....to a newly renovated building.
From my own observation, you've got various federal (Berlin), state, and local bureaucrats with varying agendas and unable to really connect to the students or the parents. In some ways, it's just like the US at this point with lots of people claiming to have the solution but never seeming to have a solution which really fits.
Friday, December 15, 2017
The Bankruptcy Story
It's a page one story in Germany today, and it deserves some explanation on how it reached this point.
Back in the mid to late 1970s....Beate Uhse became a household term. It was a sex-shop franchise operation that went across West Germany.
In Frankfurt....1978....they opened up a two-story shop that was a block down from the train station. In the midst of the glitter and lust....it was basically a 6,000 sq ft operation on two floors and featured just about everything you could imagine from magazines and toys, to clothing and 'gifts'.
The mind behind Beate Uhse? Beate Uhse-Rotermund. She was a pilot from WW II and a entrepreneur. You could probably write a 600-page book on Beate...a remarkable woman who just never saw doors shut.
After WW II....with her husband dead, she found a fairly demoralized German society....particularly with women. Roughly three years after the war, she had started up a social media type group that got into eroticism. In the early 1950s....she started a mail-order company that featured various sexual toys and erotic clothing. By the early 1960s....she opened up a full-up shop. Over the first year, there were tons of cop visits, and the authorities had at least 2,000 charges put up against her or the shops that she ran.
In the 1990s....in her seventies....she finally decided to turn the company into a 'AG' which listed itself on the Frankfurt stock exchange. You could actually buy stock in the company. Most significant towns in Germany by 2000.....had a Beate Uhse shop.
You could probably suggest that it was at this point at the absolute peak. Everyone in Germany knew the company, and it turned a profit.
Today.....they announced that the company is bankrupt. They are asking for court help to rebuild it and it might survive, although in the size that it is today.
What happened? I suspect the internet changed the whole game, and competition occurred.
Uhse herself? She died 16 years ago.
Sitting somewhere in the middle of this bankruptcy story is an epic movie that ought to be made....over Beate, the WW II experience, the 1950s/1960s era on the sexual revolution in Germany, and the eventual bankruptcy that occurred.
Back in the mid to late 1970s....Beate Uhse became a household term. It was a sex-shop franchise operation that went across West Germany.
In Frankfurt....1978....they opened up a two-story shop that was a block down from the train station. In the midst of the glitter and lust....it was basically a 6,000 sq ft operation on two floors and featured just about everything you could imagine from magazines and toys, to clothing and 'gifts'.
The mind behind Beate Uhse? Beate Uhse-Rotermund. She was a pilot from WW II and a entrepreneur. You could probably write a 600-page book on Beate...a remarkable woman who just never saw doors shut.
After WW II....with her husband dead, she found a fairly demoralized German society....particularly with women. Roughly three years after the war, she had started up a social media type group that got into eroticism. In the early 1950s....she started a mail-order company that featured various sexual toys and erotic clothing. By the early 1960s....she opened up a full-up shop. Over the first year, there were tons of cop visits, and the authorities had at least 2,000 charges put up against her or the shops that she ran.
In the 1990s....in her seventies....she finally decided to turn the company into a 'AG' which listed itself on the Frankfurt stock exchange. You could actually buy stock in the company. Most significant towns in Germany by 2000.....had a Beate Uhse shop.
You could probably suggest that it was at this point at the absolute peak. Everyone in Germany knew the company, and it turned a profit.
Today.....they announced that the company is bankrupt. They are asking for court help to rebuild it and it might survive, although in the size that it is today.
What happened? I suspect the internet changed the whole game, and competition occurred.
Uhse herself? She died 16 years ago.
Sitting somewhere in the middle of this bankruptcy story is an epic movie that ought to be made....over Beate, the WW II experience, the 1950s/1960s era on the sexual revolution in Germany, and the eventual bankruptcy that occurred.
The Biker Gang Story
The basic story?
Someone within the German intelligence system (no one says it's a political figure....so it might be an intelligence officer)....went to ZDF (Public TV, channel Two) out of Germany and said the following: folks within the Turkish AKP Party (Erdogan's group) are funding and arming gang members in Germany. Money is moving into Germany....to pay for an escalation of criminal activities.
The chief group? It's suggested that the Osmanen Germania group....typically a biker gang with some criminal elements....are getting the money and funding weapons. The use of the weapons? This is an odd part of the story....to go after Turkish critics of Erdogan in Germany.
Reliability? Unknown. The German intelligence folks are not saying anything, and Merkel has yet to comment on the report.
The news folks? They have chatted with some experts who don't seem to doubt the story although you get the opinion from them that this opens up a lot of questions that ought to be on the desk of the Interior Minister and the coalition government.
First, is the report true? Maybe there's some private AKP Party people involved, and it's not a massive Turkish conspiracy.
Second, how much funding are we talking about? 100,000 Euro? Half-a-million Euro? A million Euro? If this were a small amount....it won't buy much of anything on the open market. Course, if you just had a dozen weapons that were involved....that's a problem anyway.
Third, is it only this biker gang? The group? Cops noted their existence as starting roughly two years ago. Prior to that? Non-existent. It's a rather odd thing. Last year, cops noted that twenty of the 'club' organizations existed. It was like a large membership drive. Turks wanted to be part of the club.
The gang says....you can believe it or doubt it.....they have roughly 3,500 members at this point. Maybe it's true....maybe it's half that number.
Germany alone? No....they claim clubs in Austria, Switzerland, and Sweden now.
A year ago, the national club held a meeting here in Hessen....the first type where the top leadership all met in one building.
A couple of months ago, the German authorities started to question what the chief targets of the group were about....against the PKK crowd? Against anti-Erdogan folks?
My guess is that they looked at finances, and came to some funding issues....where they know weapons were purchased.
So this leads you to the fourth and last topic....if it did lead back to the Erdogan political party....then what? What exactly would happen....if anything?
In a way, by subsidizing the group....they are simply increasing the biker gang up to the level of the Serbian mafia, the Russian mafia, the Romanian mafia, etc. The German cops already had a major problem and this just makes it worse.
Someone within the German intelligence system (no one says it's a political figure....so it might be an intelligence officer)....went to ZDF (Public TV, channel Two) out of Germany and said the following: folks within the Turkish AKP Party (Erdogan's group) are funding and arming gang members in Germany. Money is moving into Germany....to pay for an escalation of criminal activities.
The chief group? It's suggested that the Osmanen Germania group....typically a biker gang with some criminal elements....are getting the money and funding weapons. The use of the weapons? This is an odd part of the story....to go after Turkish critics of Erdogan in Germany.
Reliability? Unknown. The German intelligence folks are not saying anything, and Merkel has yet to comment on the report.
The news folks? They have chatted with some experts who don't seem to doubt the story although you get the opinion from them that this opens up a lot of questions that ought to be on the desk of the Interior Minister and the coalition government.
First, is the report true? Maybe there's some private AKP Party people involved, and it's not a massive Turkish conspiracy.
Second, how much funding are we talking about? 100,000 Euro? Half-a-million Euro? A million Euro? If this were a small amount....it won't buy much of anything on the open market. Course, if you just had a dozen weapons that were involved....that's a problem anyway.
Third, is it only this biker gang? The group? Cops noted their existence as starting roughly two years ago. Prior to that? Non-existent. It's a rather odd thing. Last year, cops noted that twenty of the 'club' organizations existed. It was like a large membership drive. Turks wanted to be part of the club.
The gang says....you can believe it or doubt it.....they have roughly 3,500 members at this point. Maybe it's true....maybe it's half that number.
Germany alone? No....they claim clubs in Austria, Switzerland, and Sweden now.
A year ago, the national club held a meeting here in Hessen....the first type where the top leadership all met in one building.
A couple of months ago, the German authorities started to question what the chief targets of the group were about....against the PKK crowd? Against anti-Erdogan folks?
My guess is that they looked at finances, and came to some funding issues....where they know weapons were purchased.
So this leads you to the fourth and last topic....if it did lead back to the Erdogan political party....then what? What exactly would happen....if anything?
In a way, by subsidizing the group....they are simply increasing the biker gang up to the level of the Serbian mafia, the Russian mafia, the Romanian mafia, etc. The German cops already had a major problem and this just makes it worse.
Part I: German Constitution: The Prussian Document
This is part of a series where I will discuss the German Constitution, and various Constitutions that came before the 1949 episode.
The Constitution of Prussia, referred to in German as "Verfassung für den Preußischen Staat" was signed off on 31 January 1850.
It's safe to say that it was geared to give the Kaiser a fair amount of power, and to a lesser extent....the Chancellor. The lower chamber was given a minimum amount of power to be used. The upper chamber was run mostly by German gentlemen with a 'status' and mostly viewed as conservatives.
There are a 119 rights or stipulations written into the document of 1850. I won't go into a lot of these, but some are worth mentioning.
Article 3 for example.....laid down the idea that you could acquire rights as a Prussian citizen, and you could lose the rights.
Article 4 stipulated that all Prussians were equal, at least before the law. There were not supposed to be any more classes of people.
Interesting enough....Article 10 took up the idea of civil death, confiscation of property....as a punishment....was forbidden.
Article 12 covered freedom of religion. Interestingly enough.....there is a short piece of text in the article which basically says your religion can't interfere with state duties or civil requirements.
Article 14 took up the idea of a state religion....which declared Christianity would viewed in some way as the state religion.....without saying Protestant or Catholic.
They got around to marriage in Article 19, noting that you had to register your marriage.
They noted in Article 21 that education for kids had to be adequately supported. It was even written in a way that stipulated that parents or guardians could not skip out on basic education. It wasn't a right, but a requirement put upon parents to support initial education within Prussia. Article 22 even went and discussed the idea that proof of learning (tests) had to be established by the state authorities, and some level of 'fitness' had to be stamped and certified as kids passed through the system. Article 23 went and discussed the matter of teachers, noting they had rights (unstipulated) and duties to be seen at the level of actual state employees.
Article 25 went and discussed the concept that schools would be a community matter to organize but be assisted by state, as when necessary.
Freedom of speech? This was listed in Article 27. A citizen had the right to express his opinion, in various ways....even noting pictorial or cartoon free speech. Course, Article 28 came right back on offenses in that you could be punished for insults or anything regarded as a threat to society. The word 'penal code' pops up in this reference.
Freedom of assembly? Prussians got that in Article 29. They kinda noted though....it had to be in buildings, held in a peaceful way, and absolutely no firearms to be displayed.
Privacy protection over your mail existed with Article 32....course, then they note that if you were under investigation....those rights disappeared.
Article 34 stipulated that all Prussian men were expected to fill some type of military service. The various stipulations? Unwritten into this brief article, and was to be handled by normal laws.
Then you come to Article 36....which basically says that military units could be used across Prussia to counter internal threats, enforce the laws, and maintain state security. It's not a right, and it was the trigger to be used by the Kaiser to counter any revolutionary activity within Prussia. Of all articles in this constitution.....this is the one which likely drew a fair amount of conversation, in my humble opinion.
In Article 38, the constitution stipulated that military decisions....were not to be debated or discussed beyond the authorities in charge. In effect, if a thousand troops were hostile toward some military decision....they were forbidden from discussing the matter in any forum. This even went as far to include situations where you were retired from the military and wanting to complain over a decision affecting the military.
Article 43 picked up this odd and short topic of the rule of the Kaiser. Basically, the authority of the Kaiser was not to be disrespected, period. Definition of respect? Undefined. You can sense that article probably would be a long term issue.
Then came Article 48.....only the Kaiser would have the power to declare war, and establish peace. Only the Kaiser would have the power to sign treaties with other lands.
Article 51 gave the Kaiser the right to open and close both the upper and lower house. He could dismiss only one, or both. But once he closed the assembly, there had to be a vote to occur within sixty days with Prussia, and shortly after that.....the assembly had to reopen.
Article 54 talks over the oath of the Kaiser.
The size of the lower chamber? Set by Article 69. It was limited to 433 members. I've never seen this discussed as why the number is 433. It may relate to the size of the hall, or to the districts at that point in time.
Who can vote? Article 70 covers this. Every Prussian male....25 years old....is qualified to vote in their district.
Then you come to the one article of significance. Article 111. It basically says that in the event of war, chaos, or revolution....various rights are suspended. It could be for a period of time, or indefinite. It could be made effective in only one single region, or the entire country of Prussia.
In some ways, this Prussian Constitution demonstrated a great deal of thought, but with limited freedoms. The chief driving force? The Kaiser. The Kaiser gave freedoms, and took away freedoms....as necessary.
The Constitution of Prussia, referred to in German as "Verfassung für den Preußischen Staat" was signed off on 31 January 1850.
It's safe to say that it was geared to give the Kaiser a fair amount of power, and to a lesser extent....the Chancellor. The lower chamber was given a minimum amount of power to be used. The upper chamber was run mostly by German gentlemen with a 'status' and mostly viewed as conservatives.
There are a 119 rights or stipulations written into the document of 1850. I won't go into a lot of these, but some are worth mentioning.
Article 3 for example.....laid down the idea that you could acquire rights as a Prussian citizen, and you could lose the rights.
Article 4 stipulated that all Prussians were equal, at least before the law. There were not supposed to be any more classes of people.
Interesting enough....Article 10 took up the idea of civil death, confiscation of property....as a punishment....was forbidden.
Article 12 covered freedom of religion. Interestingly enough.....there is a short piece of text in the article which basically says your religion can't interfere with state duties or civil requirements.
Article 14 took up the idea of a state religion....which declared Christianity would viewed in some way as the state religion.....without saying Protestant or Catholic.
They got around to marriage in Article 19, noting that you had to register your marriage.
They noted in Article 21 that education for kids had to be adequately supported. It was even written in a way that stipulated that parents or guardians could not skip out on basic education. It wasn't a right, but a requirement put upon parents to support initial education within Prussia. Article 22 even went and discussed the idea that proof of learning (tests) had to be established by the state authorities, and some level of 'fitness' had to be stamped and certified as kids passed through the system. Article 23 went and discussed the matter of teachers, noting they had rights (unstipulated) and duties to be seen at the level of actual state employees.
Article 25 went and discussed the concept that schools would be a community matter to organize but be assisted by state, as when necessary.
Freedom of speech? This was listed in Article 27. A citizen had the right to express his opinion, in various ways....even noting pictorial or cartoon free speech. Course, Article 28 came right back on offenses in that you could be punished for insults or anything regarded as a threat to society. The word 'penal code' pops up in this reference.
Freedom of assembly? Prussians got that in Article 29. They kinda noted though....it had to be in buildings, held in a peaceful way, and absolutely no firearms to be displayed.
Privacy protection over your mail existed with Article 32....course, then they note that if you were under investigation....those rights disappeared.
Article 34 stipulated that all Prussian men were expected to fill some type of military service. The various stipulations? Unwritten into this brief article, and was to be handled by normal laws.
Then you come to Article 36....which basically says that military units could be used across Prussia to counter internal threats, enforce the laws, and maintain state security. It's not a right, and it was the trigger to be used by the Kaiser to counter any revolutionary activity within Prussia. Of all articles in this constitution.....this is the one which likely drew a fair amount of conversation, in my humble opinion.
In Article 38, the constitution stipulated that military decisions....were not to be debated or discussed beyond the authorities in charge. In effect, if a thousand troops were hostile toward some military decision....they were forbidden from discussing the matter in any forum. This even went as far to include situations where you were retired from the military and wanting to complain over a decision affecting the military.
Article 43 picked up this odd and short topic of the rule of the Kaiser. Basically, the authority of the Kaiser was not to be disrespected, period. Definition of respect? Undefined. You can sense that article probably would be a long term issue.
Then came Article 48.....only the Kaiser would have the power to declare war, and establish peace. Only the Kaiser would have the power to sign treaties with other lands.
Article 51 gave the Kaiser the right to open and close both the upper and lower house. He could dismiss only one, or both. But once he closed the assembly, there had to be a vote to occur within sixty days with Prussia, and shortly after that.....the assembly had to reopen.
Article 54 talks over the oath of the Kaiser.
The size of the lower chamber? Set by Article 69. It was limited to 433 members. I've never seen this discussed as why the number is 433. It may relate to the size of the hall, or to the districts at that point in time.
Who can vote? Article 70 covers this. Every Prussian male....25 years old....is qualified to vote in their district.
Then you come to the one article of significance. Article 111. It basically says that in the event of war, chaos, or revolution....various rights are suspended. It could be for a period of time, or indefinite. It could be made effective in only one single region, or the entire country of Prussia.
In some ways, this Prussian Constitution demonstrated a great deal of thought, but with limited freedoms. The chief driving force? The Kaiser. The Kaiser gave freedoms, and took away freedoms....as necessary.
The Kassel Airport Story
One of my favorite regional topics is the Kassel Airport.
Back twenty years ago...it was a no-name small airport about two hours north of Frankfurt and used mostly by the locals. For those who've never been to Kassel, it's a terrific place for a weekend visit and loaded with history and culture. Prior to WW II...it was a major city in Germany and had tons of technology-laden companies in the local area. All of this led to Allied bombing in WW II, and a lot of destruction. History would show a large metropolitan area existing there today....had the war not occurred.
Back around twelve years ago, the local political folks convinced Hessen political folks into renovating the local airport. Roughly 270-million Euro was poured in.
What they ended up with (I've been there and walked through the airport itself) is a great renovated runway (8,200 ft long)....a first-rate fire-department building....and a Airport complex (basically two gates). Plenty of open parking....all free.
It was built in a way for vacation travelers. You could easily imagine three or four flights per day in the spring and summer leaving out of the airport. It was near the autobahn, so that made another positive.
The negative? Well....Kassel is in the middle of nowhere. Toward the west (an hour away), there's at least three significant airports already there and operating. To the south is Fulda. Hanover and Leipzig? They already had airports as well.
They built a white-paper-type airport....waiting for business to discover how to use it. The problem is....the EU has this rule about how state funding can be used to sustain an airport, and they were given a warning that it had to start turning a profit, or be sold.
No one says much over the idea of selling the airport. To be honest, after the Hahn episode....there just isn't much of a market shown for airports in Germany.
So HR did a report and chatted about the efforts to keep the airport up and running.
This year? The airport moved 70,000 passengers....which is a pretty lousy number and won't sustain the operating cost.
For 2018? Well....they are suggesting 540,000 passengers. It's mostly due to some vacation networks and summer tour-packages being arranged. If they did reach 540,000....it would probably help to keep the airport in operation. How they they arrived at the 540,000....well....it's simply talks with the industry and a guess.
It's an interesting white-paper-design. You could get into your car and drive 90 minutes....pull into a paved parking lot....walk less than ten minutes...and enter an airport with marginal problems. Seven days later, return to the same airport, grab your bag, and be in the car and on the autobahn in fifteen minutes. But you need the vacation package folks to grasp this ease and simple design. So far, they've gone to established airports.
Back twenty years ago...it was a no-name small airport about two hours north of Frankfurt and used mostly by the locals. For those who've never been to Kassel, it's a terrific place for a weekend visit and loaded with history and culture. Prior to WW II...it was a major city in Germany and had tons of technology-laden companies in the local area. All of this led to Allied bombing in WW II, and a lot of destruction. History would show a large metropolitan area existing there today....had the war not occurred.
Back around twelve years ago, the local political folks convinced Hessen political folks into renovating the local airport. Roughly 270-million Euro was poured in.
What they ended up with (I've been there and walked through the airport itself) is a great renovated runway (8,200 ft long)....a first-rate fire-department building....and a Airport complex (basically two gates). Plenty of open parking....all free.
It was built in a way for vacation travelers. You could easily imagine three or four flights per day in the spring and summer leaving out of the airport. It was near the autobahn, so that made another positive.
The negative? Well....Kassel is in the middle of nowhere. Toward the west (an hour away), there's at least three significant airports already there and operating. To the south is Fulda. Hanover and Leipzig? They already had airports as well.
They built a white-paper-type airport....waiting for business to discover how to use it. The problem is....the EU has this rule about how state funding can be used to sustain an airport, and they were given a warning that it had to start turning a profit, or be sold.
No one says much over the idea of selling the airport. To be honest, after the Hahn episode....there just isn't much of a market shown for airports in Germany.
So HR did a report and chatted about the efforts to keep the airport up and running.
This year? The airport moved 70,000 passengers....which is a pretty lousy number and won't sustain the operating cost.
For 2018? Well....they are suggesting 540,000 passengers. It's mostly due to some vacation networks and summer tour-packages being arranged. If they did reach 540,000....it would probably help to keep the airport in operation. How they they arrived at the 540,000....well....it's simply talks with the industry and a guess.
It's an interesting white-paper-design. You could get into your car and drive 90 minutes....pull into a paved parking lot....walk less than ten minutes...and enter an airport with marginal problems. Seven days later, return to the same airport, grab your bag, and be in the car and on the autobahn in fifteen minutes. But you need the vacation package folks to grasp this ease and simple design. So far, they've gone to established airports.
The EU Story
On page one news from yesterday, there was this odd German criticism to arrive on the EU.
For a number of months, the EU has been on this theme of forcing migrants and asylum seekers out of camps in Italy and Greece....into EU countries. To make this work, you needed a quota system, and you needed the 28 members of the EU to accept their quota....period.
Well....it hasn't worked.
In particular, several eastern European countries have suggested that they won't abide by a quota established by the EU. In their cases, they have a process existing on immigration, and you need to apply....show skills....provide a real identification of yourself....and go through a process. In the EU plan, it'd just be a plane landing and unloading a hundred folks, and a week later....another plane landing and unloading a number of folks. No review. No denial.
So in public this week, the EU Council President (Tusk) said the quotas are ineffective, and it's now to the level of dividing up the EU. In some counties, with elections coming up....there are actually opposition parties using the quota game to convince the public to vote against the standing party.
So from the news.....there was a fair bit of criticism by Germany's Chancellor Merkel over this admitting of the quota failures.
Presently, the countries with the serious burden are Greece and Italy. Both were led to believe (at least two years ago)....that the EU could fix this camp problem and shift the 180,000 refugees out....flushing them into the other countries of the EU.
Part of the problem here, if you study the whole landscape, is that the EU doesn't really say that these 180,000 are the end of the problem. There are likely tens of thousands in the funnel and likely will be in Italy or Greece within the next year. So even if you were capable of saying OK to quota version 1.0.....in a year....some EU guy would stand up and say there's a whole new crowd of migrants, and you have to accept another 10,000. There's virtually no end to this game, if you think about how the EU arranged the game to be played out.
What happens here now? To get all 28 members of the EU on the same script for this issue, is now impossible. This talk in Germany of countries being forced out of the EU? That's probably not going to help matters.
The ability of the EU to say 'no' on mass immigration? Oddly, it just doesn't ever come up.
The affect of sending 10,000 migrants into a country with 10-percent unemployment? It's also a topic that is never openly discussed.
The issue of various countries have a very minimum support apparatus for migrants, compared to Germany? That's also a topic which never comes up.
The topic of migrants being 'forced' into a country, which they don't want to immigrate into (that they have a preferred choice of the UK, Germany or France)? Oh, it's best not to bring this topic up with a German. Add on the fact that once in the no-desire country...what keeps the guy there? A virtual unknown. He likely packs up in a couple of weeks, and walks into Germany.
Of all the dead-end topics that the EU could ever get itself into.....this is probably problem number one.
For a number of months, the EU has been on this theme of forcing migrants and asylum seekers out of camps in Italy and Greece....into EU countries. To make this work, you needed a quota system, and you needed the 28 members of the EU to accept their quota....period.
Well....it hasn't worked.
In particular, several eastern European countries have suggested that they won't abide by a quota established by the EU. In their cases, they have a process existing on immigration, and you need to apply....show skills....provide a real identification of yourself....and go through a process. In the EU plan, it'd just be a plane landing and unloading a hundred folks, and a week later....another plane landing and unloading a number of folks. No review. No denial.
So in public this week, the EU Council President (Tusk) said the quotas are ineffective, and it's now to the level of dividing up the EU. In some counties, with elections coming up....there are actually opposition parties using the quota game to convince the public to vote against the standing party.
So from the news.....there was a fair bit of criticism by Germany's Chancellor Merkel over this admitting of the quota failures.
Presently, the countries with the serious burden are Greece and Italy. Both were led to believe (at least two years ago)....that the EU could fix this camp problem and shift the 180,000 refugees out....flushing them into the other countries of the EU.
Part of the problem here, if you study the whole landscape, is that the EU doesn't really say that these 180,000 are the end of the problem. There are likely tens of thousands in the funnel and likely will be in Italy or Greece within the next year. So even if you were capable of saying OK to quota version 1.0.....in a year....some EU guy would stand up and say there's a whole new crowd of migrants, and you have to accept another 10,000. There's virtually no end to this game, if you think about how the EU arranged the game to be played out.
What happens here now? To get all 28 members of the EU on the same script for this issue, is now impossible. This talk in Germany of countries being forced out of the EU? That's probably not going to help matters.
The ability of the EU to say 'no' on mass immigration? Oddly, it just doesn't ever come up.
The affect of sending 10,000 migrants into a country with 10-percent unemployment? It's also a topic that is never openly discussed.
The issue of various countries have a very minimum support apparatus for migrants, compared to Germany? That's also a topic which never comes up.
The topic of migrants being 'forced' into a country, which they don't want to immigrate into (that they have a preferred choice of the UK, Germany or France)? Oh, it's best not to bring this topic up with a German. Add on the fact that once in the no-desire country...what keeps the guy there? A virtual unknown. He likely packs up in a couple of weeks, and walks into Germany.
Of all the dead-end topics that the EU could ever get itself into.....this is probably problem number one.
This Glyphosate 'Mess'
If you don't follow this German glyphosate mess, I'll lay out the basic story. For almost forty years, worldwide, glyphosate has been around and used by farmers to prevent weeds on row-crops. It's commonly called Round-Up in the US. The vast amount of research done on the chemical is (almost 98-percent of the reports) say that it doesn't cause cancer. In the last three to five years, a couple of German groups have come out and suggested that it may cause cancer (it's not a hard definite belief). Among the Green Party of Germany, and the SPD Party.....this has been picked up and they are working to either limit the use, or totally ban the chemical.
What appears now likely to occur in Germany is that the Environmental Ministry will control the use, and force farmers to ask permission. How the request will be handled is a virtual unknown. You could have 200,000 German farmers make the request and all of them get permission. You could have the same number apply and half be denied. If you denied half the farmers in some district the use of the chemical....could they sue the government in court? Yes, and if found guilty of some abuse....the government would have to pay the farmers. You can sense that this is a fairly big mess that is building up into a bigger mess.
Politically? This is the odd part of the story. The FDP says they want more research done before any real solution is screwed around with. The CDU-CSU folks want the farmers to have the right to use it. Then you have the AfD folks, the Greens, the Linke Party and the SPD.....all wanting to ban the product.
Adding to this discussion is the idea that it affects insects, birds and other plants of their 'livelihood'. On this topic, there's probably a full decade of research required before you'd come to a complete answer. Maybe they are correct.
My impression of where this goes?
I would offer five observations:
1. By the end of 2018, I think the ban over glyphosate will occur and probably over half the requests to use the chemical will be denied. I would suggest that the request 'cycle' here....from the day that the farmer requests to use the chemical....to the day of permission granted.....may take over twelve months, and be of a very limited nature (maybe limiting the mixture to 50-percent effectiveness).....thus making the value of the chemical questionable. You can imagine the German bureaucracy game involved, and how many people need to review the request document before it can be approved.
2. I would suggest that by 2022, farm production levels will Germany will likely show some decline. Maybe five-percent.....maybe ten-percent....maybe fifteen-percent. The government will start a study to understand why, but it'll take five years for the government to admit that weeds hindered full production levels that German farmers enjoyed for forty-odd years.
3. Someone will show up with a new chemical....totally unrelated to glyphosate. It'll be immediately put out and used by farmers. Then I'll predict within a couple of years....it'll be deemed a cancer-threat as well.
4. All of this will lead to one single 'funnel' or production strategy. More will have to produced elsewhere (outside of Germany), where no ban will exist. Maybe in the Ukraine....maybe in Romania. This will eventually draw the same ban crowd to demand control over those nations as well, or to completely deny them the ability to import into Germany.
5. All of this leads to a long-term production problem for agricultural products in Germany, and increased cost. Just to speculate on on five-percent increased cost because of this strategy is a joke. I would be looking long-term at 20-percent cost easily coming out of this strategy and most working-class Germans just shaking their heads because they worry about cancer, but they can't really afford the solution.
This brings me to this last bit of pondering. This only involves row-crops and glyphosates. What of cattle and pork? What about Pepsi and Coke? What about chips and dips? Is it possible that government regulations will come there as well? Oh, it's best not to suggest that to Germans.
What appears now likely to occur in Germany is that the Environmental Ministry will control the use, and force farmers to ask permission. How the request will be handled is a virtual unknown. You could have 200,000 German farmers make the request and all of them get permission. You could have the same number apply and half be denied. If you denied half the farmers in some district the use of the chemical....could they sue the government in court? Yes, and if found guilty of some abuse....the government would have to pay the farmers. You can sense that this is a fairly big mess that is building up into a bigger mess.
Politically? This is the odd part of the story. The FDP says they want more research done before any real solution is screwed around with. The CDU-CSU folks want the farmers to have the right to use it. Then you have the AfD folks, the Greens, the Linke Party and the SPD.....all wanting to ban the product.
Adding to this discussion is the idea that it affects insects, birds and other plants of their 'livelihood'. On this topic, there's probably a full decade of research required before you'd come to a complete answer. Maybe they are correct.
My impression of where this goes?
I would offer five observations:
1. By the end of 2018, I think the ban over glyphosate will occur and probably over half the requests to use the chemical will be denied. I would suggest that the request 'cycle' here....from the day that the farmer requests to use the chemical....to the day of permission granted.....may take over twelve months, and be of a very limited nature (maybe limiting the mixture to 50-percent effectiveness).....thus making the value of the chemical questionable. You can imagine the German bureaucracy game involved, and how many people need to review the request document before it can be approved.
2. I would suggest that by 2022, farm production levels will Germany will likely show some decline. Maybe five-percent.....maybe ten-percent....maybe fifteen-percent. The government will start a study to understand why, but it'll take five years for the government to admit that weeds hindered full production levels that German farmers enjoyed for forty-odd years.
3. Someone will show up with a new chemical....totally unrelated to glyphosate. It'll be immediately put out and used by farmers. Then I'll predict within a couple of years....it'll be deemed a cancer-threat as well.
4. All of this will lead to one single 'funnel' or production strategy. More will have to produced elsewhere (outside of Germany), where no ban will exist. Maybe in the Ukraine....maybe in Romania. This will eventually draw the same ban crowd to demand control over those nations as well, or to completely deny them the ability to import into Germany.
5. All of this leads to a long-term production problem for agricultural products in Germany, and increased cost. Just to speculate on on five-percent increased cost because of this strategy is a joke. I would be looking long-term at 20-percent cost easily coming out of this strategy and most working-class Germans just shaking their heads because they worry about cancer, but they can't really afford the solution.
This brings me to this last bit of pondering. This only involves row-crops and glyphosates. What of cattle and pork? What about Pepsi and Coke? What about chips and dips? Is it possible that government regulations will come there as well? Oh, it's best not to suggest that to Germans.
The Linda Story
I sat last night and watched the late news on German TV (public-network Channel One, ARD). The big topic? They had a team that accompanied the mother and sister of "Linda"....the young German gal who ran off to Iraq and became the bride of some ISIS guy....then he ended up dead, and she's been captured by the Iraqi government.
Linda has been a captive of the Iraqis for several months now, and this visit was worked out with the German government.
The portrayal of this story goes along the line (at least since day one.....months ago)....that Linda was this crazy mixed-up German teenager, who was naive enough to fall for ISIS propaganda (she's not a Muslim originally, and the mother is pure German....not an immigrant). Linda ran off....got into this ISIS business, got married, had a kid, and then ended up a captive.
The three to four minutes last night? It was delivered as a personal story, and I think Germans who watched it (it's after 10PM when this showed up)....would have felt the need to believe Linda....then help to get her out of Iraq.
The idea of a return to Germany?
Here's the thing....Iraq really doesn't want bad negative coverage over this episode. They say they've got a couple of German women (maybe six to seven) like Linda. She's oddly enough....the only one with real coverage. Why? Unknown. It is odd....the news folks only pick one face to use for this topic.
The German authorities? There's some talk that a opening will occur and she will be allowed back into Germany. There's some negatives attached. Some folks think it's a moral victory for ISIS if you let the women come back in. Most Germans have watched the public TV coverage and believe that the young women in question were just stupid and naive....thus letting them come back is not a big deal.
What would really screw up this mess is that someone comes along a year after the return of Linda, and say that she was a part of the ISIS campaign.....carrying a weapon, and possibly carrying out some really harsh situations. No one has suggested this at this point, and maybe she is what she claims....totally innocent and naive.
The one thing I get out of this story is that the German authorities really didn't grasp the propaganda being used in German schools and via social media.....to recruit kids. There were a thousand things that they could have done.....to really screw up the propaganda used, and they simply missed their opportunity.
My gut feeling on the open door for Linda? You might as well go ahead and let the teenager come back in. I would mandate some probation period of two years, and have a social worker personally meet with her weekly. I'd mandate education and job-training as part of the deal. And I might mandate no news media interviews unless they are approved by the social worker.
Linda has been a captive of the Iraqis for several months now, and this visit was worked out with the German government.
The portrayal of this story goes along the line (at least since day one.....months ago)....that Linda was this crazy mixed-up German teenager, who was naive enough to fall for ISIS propaganda (she's not a Muslim originally, and the mother is pure German....not an immigrant). Linda ran off....got into this ISIS business, got married, had a kid, and then ended up a captive.
The three to four minutes last night? It was delivered as a personal story, and I think Germans who watched it (it's after 10PM when this showed up)....would have felt the need to believe Linda....then help to get her out of Iraq.
The idea of a return to Germany?
Here's the thing....Iraq really doesn't want bad negative coverage over this episode. They say they've got a couple of German women (maybe six to seven) like Linda. She's oddly enough....the only one with real coverage. Why? Unknown. It is odd....the news folks only pick one face to use for this topic.
The German authorities? There's some talk that a opening will occur and she will be allowed back into Germany. There's some negatives attached. Some folks think it's a moral victory for ISIS if you let the women come back in. Most Germans have watched the public TV coverage and believe that the young women in question were just stupid and naive....thus letting them come back is not a big deal.
What would really screw up this mess is that someone comes along a year after the return of Linda, and say that she was a part of the ISIS campaign.....carrying a weapon, and possibly carrying out some really harsh situations. No one has suggested this at this point, and maybe she is what she claims....totally innocent and naive.
The one thing I get out of this story is that the German authorities really didn't grasp the propaganda being used in German schools and via social media.....to recruit kids. There were a thousand things that they could have done.....to really screw up the propaganda used, and they simply missed their opportunity.
My gut feeling on the open door for Linda? You might as well go ahead and let the teenager come back in. I would mandate some probation period of two years, and have a social worker personally meet with her weekly. I'd mandate education and job-training as part of the deal. And I might mandate no news media interviews unless they are approved by the social worker.
The Munich Story
It was an interesting piece by Focus today.....over Munich social workers and the threats they face.
The organization in the city of Munich that runs the various social programs is the Sozialreferat. They offer a fair number of services to Germans, and to incoming refugees. In a number of cases, they actually their people living in housing/shelter areas.....so that the 'customers' had ready access to ask questions or get help.
Well....there aren't a lot of details, but the newspaper from the region (Suddeutsche Zeitung) notes that social workers have been withdrawn from the housing/shelter areas.....over security issues.
The wording says that if there aren't any security personnel around.....you don't live there. Threats apparently reached a level that no one in authority was willing to accept responsibility anymore. Whether it was actual threats, or perceived threats....it was adding up.
Added to this issue is the problem that in a number of cases.....the authorities were reacting and putting more security into problem areas, and drawing negativity by the immigrant residents. You can go and look at how Sweden got into the same situation....attempting to have more police around, and it simply triggered youth gangs to target the cops for the 'fun of it'.
What happens now? If you had issue or problem (as an immigrant)....you would need to walk out the door and go find a local social officer for the city. It wont take long for youth gangs to develop and start to question people as they exit the building, and try to intimidate folks.
Adding to this mess....at least in Munich, is the unavailability of affordable housing. The city now admits that they've got 13,000 families on some list....waiting for a social housing unit in the city. On a yearly basis....again the city admits.....there's only a movement of 3,000 apartments assigned out. So if you were in some temp refugee housing unit.....you might be there for a number of years before you had a chance to move.
The organization in the city of Munich that runs the various social programs is the Sozialreferat. They offer a fair number of services to Germans, and to incoming refugees. In a number of cases, they actually their people living in housing/shelter areas.....so that the 'customers' had ready access to ask questions or get help.
Well....there aren't a lot of details, but the newspaper from the region (Suddeutsche Zeitung) notes that social workers have been withdrawn from the housing/shelter areas.....over security issues.
The wording says that if there aren't any security personnel around.....you don't live there. Threats apparently reached a level that no one in authority was willing to accept responsibility anymore. Whether it was actual threats, or perceived threats....it was adding up.
Added to this issue is the problem that in a number of cases.....the authorities were reacting and putting more security into problem areas, and drawing negativity by the immigrant residents. You can go and look at how Sweden got into the same situation....attempting to have more police around, and it simply triggered youth gangs to target the cops for the 'fun of it'.
What happens now? If you had issue or problem (as an immigrant)....you would need to walk out the door and go find a local social officer for the city. It wont take long for youth gangs to develop and start to question people as they exit the building, and try to intimidate folks.
Adding to this mess....at least in Munich, is the unavailability of affordable housing. The city now admits that they've got 13,000 families on some list....waiting for a social housing unit in the city. On a yearly basis....again the city admits.....there's only a movement of 3,000 apartments assigned out. So if you were in some temp refugee housing unit.....you might be there for a number of years before you had a chance to move.
Thursday, December 14, 2017
Doner Kebab Defended
The vote came up yesterday in the EU....over regulating frozen meat skewers....namely, doner kebabs.
Health folks are frustrated because to make a good kebab....you need to add phosphate to the meat product to keep water in.....while roasting away. Otherwise, it's a dried-up piece of meat which people won't eat.
The vote to stop phosphates from being added? It failed....by three votes.
Odds of coming up again? Well, not until after the next EU election (2019). I doubt if the Social Democrats and Greens will increase their membership in the EU to accomplish this.
How big of a deal this would have been? In general....there are several different reasons why doner kebabs are an attractive lunch item in Germany. You can pile on various vegetables, and it's fairly cheap (five Euro typically....or less). But if this were a dried-up piece of meat....it'd be dumped almost immediately and you would see thousands of stands around Germany in a panic.
The amazing thing to me is that all of these health folks have wasted a ton of time trying to dump on phosphates. If they'd spent the time to find an alternate ingredient which kept moisture within the meat while cooking.....it would have been easier for folks to accept some change.
Health folks are frustrated because to make a good kebab....you need to add phosphate to the meat product to keep water in.....while roasting away. Otherwise, it's a dried-up piece of meat which people won't eat.
The vote to stop phosphates from being added? It failed....by three votes.
Odds of coming up again? Well, not until after the next EU election (2019). I doubt if the Social Democrats and Greens will increase their membership in the EU to accomplish this.
How big of a deal this would have been? In general....there are several different reasons why doner kebabs are an attractive lunch item in Germany. You can pile on various vegetables, and it's fairly cheap (five Euro typically....or less). But if this were a dried-up piece of meat....it'd be dumped almost immediately and you would see thousands of stands around Germany in a panic.
The amazing thing to me is that all of these health folks have wasted a ton of time trying to dump on phosphates. If they'd spent the time to find an alternate ingredient which kept moisture within the meat while cooking.....it would have been easier for folks to accept some change.
Saarland School Story
Forty years ago in Germany, this story would have been only a fantasy.
Focus tells the story coming out of the Saarland (far west corner of Germany).
Back in the summer (June), a regional teacher wrote a letter to the local newspaper, the Saarbrucker Zeitung.
The teacher laid out all of these issues in the school system (assaults, violence, drug use by the kids, insults against the teachers, etc).
The newspaper kinda held the letter back, and investigated the commentary. I suspect they were in some disbelief of what the teacher suggested.
Now? It's published and discussed in depth.
Various examples cited by the newspaper....knives in the school, kids assaulted, daily insults against teachers, etc.
The schools have reacted in some minor ways....declaring fifty of the kids to be special-needs kids. Back in September, the union gave the school system a warning that they need to create some solutions, but the school system has yet to really grasp the full mess.
Saarland alone? I kinda doubt it.
The ease and low-cost level of drugs now in Germany has reached the level where schools are affected. If it's unsafe for teachers....it's unsafe for the other students in the system as well.
Somehow, I suspect that drug-testing is going to come up shortly, and German cops start appearing more often in schools. If it sounds like Americanization....yeah, I would suggest that.
Focus tells the story coming out of the Saarland (far west corner of Germany).
Back in the summer (June), a regional teacher wrote a letter to the local newspaper, the Saarbrucker Zeitung.
The teacher laid out all of these issues in the school system (assaults, violence, drug use by the kids, insults against the teachers, etc).
The newspaper kinda held the letter back, and investigated the commentary. I suspect they were in some disbelief of what the teacher suggested.
Now? It's published and discussed in depth.
Various examples cited by the newspaper....knives in the school, kids assaulted, daily insults against teachers, etc.
The schools have reacted in some minor ways....declaring fifty of the kids to be special-needs kids. Back in September, the union gave the school system a warning that they need to create some solutions, but the school system has yet to really grasp the full mess.
Saarland alone? I kinda doubt it.
The ease and low-cost level of drugs now in Germany has reached the level where schools are affected. If it's unsafe for teachers....it's unsafe for the other students in the system as well.
Somehow, I suspect that drug-testing is going to come up shortly, and German cops start appearing more often in schools. If it sounds like Americanization....yeah, I would suggest that.
Wednesday, December 13, 2017
The French Rule on Social Media
It came up in French news yesterday that they were going to create a new regulation for social media (affecting Twitter, Facebook, etc)....if you were under 16 years old, you have to have the parent to approve the account.
Reporters covering this? Well....it was mostly a 10-line story. The last line indicated that no one could really describe how this process would work.
My guess is that as you (the kid) are starting your social media account....it will ask you for your birthday. If you were truthful, you'd admit you were underage, and then it would ask for your dad's email. Then it'd route the request to dad to approve.
This brings on a number of scenarios.
What if dad doesn't approve it? Could you run off to the local social office and complain dad wasn't being fair? Could some judge approve the account for you, because dad wasn't fair.
What if you said you were 16.5 years old, when in reality....you were 12 years old?
What if you gave them dad's email address, but it was really to your second email account, and you pretended to be dad?
At some point, I came to this reality....the French political folks in Paris who dream up these rules, really aren't social media players. They see it as sort of a license, and that things can be controlled.
Kids laughing about this? Maybe.
Reporters covering this? Well....it was mostly a 10-line story. The last line indicated that no one could really describe how this process would work.
My guess is that as you (the kid) are starting your social media account....it will ask you for your birthday. If you were truthful, you'd admit you were underage, and then it would ask for your dad's email. Then it'd route the request to dad to approve.
This brings on a number of scenarios.
What if dad doesn't approve it? Could you run off to the local social office and complain dad wasn't being fair? Could some judge approve the account for you, because dad wasn't fair.
What if you said you were 16.5 years old, when in reality....you were 12 years old?
What if you gave them dad's email address, but it was really to your second email account, and you pretended to be dad?
At some point, I came to this reality....the French political folks in Paris who dream up these rules, really aren't social media players. They see it as sort of a license, and that things can be controlled.
Kids laughing about this? Maybe.
The French School Measures
It popped up in French news today....two curious changes coming to the school environment.
First, Macron has issued a statement which says that schools must take action to create choirs in every school....to which they agreed to put up around 20-million Euro.
It's hard to say how kids will react to this, or if it's taken as a big joke. Forced choir practice? Well....don't even go and suggest that.
The second curious thing is that a ban is now coming over cellphones in schools (for ages six to fifteen). Presently, you couldn't have them in the classroom. But this new rule more or less states that there will be no cellphones in the entire school.
How they'd be confiscated, or where they'd be stored? Not really addressed. Affecting teachers? That wasn't clear either.
Coming to other European countries? If you went and asked German teachers about this business....most would like to ban cellphones as well (at least for the students). Most German schools will have a box in the room, and you are supposed to 'store' your phone.
First, Macron has issued a statement which says that schools must take action to create choirs in every school....to which they agreed to put up around 20-million Euro.
It's hard to say how kids will react to this, or if it's taken as a big joke. Forced choir practice? Well....don't even go and suggest that.
The second curious thing is that a ban is now coming over cellphones in schools (for ages six to fifteen). Presently, you couldn't have them in the classroom. But this new rule more or less states that there will be no cellphones in the entire school.
How they'd be confiscated, or where they'd be stored? Not really addressed. Affecting teachers? That wasn't clear either.
Coming to other European countries? If you went and asked German teachers about this business....most would like to ban cellphones as well (at least for the students). Most German schools will have a box in the room, and you are supposed to 'store' your phone.
Dresden TB Story II
Last week, I essayed a piece on Dresden and some cases of Tuberculosis which popped up in a school there. All of this was going to lead to more tests of students and teachers.
Well....they've gone to the next level.
The authorities in Dresden now say that there are twelve new cases to add to the list......coming out of two private schools in the local area.
Right now, they are talking about a total number of 43 cases in the Dresden region.
On the positive side, they've tested a heck of a lot of people associated with the two schools and probably reached the high point for this disease issue. How this all came to be? Unknown. No one from the city has pieced together this angle of the story, and the news folks are simply going to let it lay there. You don't want to worry folks, or make some false suggestions.
The thing about TB (having been identified with it myself) is that wonder-drugs exist and you can feel comfortable in that you won't go down the path of the 1800s with a probable chance of death.
As for the mobile nature of TB today? Look....people....especially Germans, travel in a lot of exotic places now. Germans go off to Mongolia, deep Siberia, the South Pole, and even into the jungles of Peru. It's not that hard to envision this transmission starting that way, rather than refugee-type transmission source. The other side of this is that most Germans never get tested for TB, and that you might have a fair number of people sitting around and not realizing their situation.
Well....they've gone to the next level.
The authorities in Dresden now say that there are twelve new cases to add to the list......coming out of two private schools in the local area.
Right now, they are talking about a total number of 43 cases in the Dresden region.
On the positive side, they've tested a heck of a lot of people associated with the two schools and probably reached the high point for this disease issue. How this all came to be? Unknown. No one from the city has pieced together this angle of the story, and the news folks are simply going to let it lay there. You don't want to worry folks, or make some false suggestions.
The thing about TB (having been identified with it myself) is that wonder-drugs exist and you can feel comfortable in that you won't go down the path of the 1800s with a probable chance of death.
As for the mobile nature of TB today? Look....people....especially Germans, travel in a lot of exotic places now. Germans go off to Mongolia, deep Siberia, the South Pole, and even into the jungles of Peru. It's not that hard to envision this transmission starting that way, rather than refugee-type transmission source. The other side of this is that most Germans never get tested for TB, and that you might have a fair number of people sitting around and not realizing their situation.
Tuesday, December 12, 2017
The Glyphosate Story
A normal working-class German has a political list of things that the government (doesn't matter which party is in charge) ought to be fixing or resolving.
Glyphosate? Well...no, it's not on the list of most working-class Germans.
So to explain the glyphosate issue....a little history.
Back in the 1970s....glyphosate was invented to kill weeds for crop farming. You know it today as 'Roundup'. For almost 40 years, it's been used to downsize the weed problem when producing a crop.
At some point in 2013, the German Federal Institute for Risk Assessment stood up and said the numbers don't relate to a safe weed-killer. For about four years now, there's been several arguments going on within Germany, the EU and the world health organizations. A vast amount of research over forty years says that there is no health hazard. This German research organization has said otherwise.
So we have one German national cabinet group (Department of the Environment) and a second group (the Ministry of Agriculture), which have two different political figures (SPD for the Environment, and CSU for the Agriculture).
The SPD policy is that they want to terminate it in Germany, and throughout the EU. Most farmers aren't really that happy with the SPD policy.
Why the farmer situation? When you produce a row-crop....you are dependent on as few weeds interfering with the production cycle. If your main solution is glyphosate....then you have a fairly good idea of the control over weeds. If you have no use of glyphosate.....then you can depend on a fair growth pattern of weeds, and a lesser production. No one says how much....maybe 5-percent, maybe 10-percent, or maybe 20-percent.
Compensation for the farmers? Well....NO. That's never been discussed by the SPD or their cabinet minister. If you were a farmer and the NO-glyphosate was the rule, you would probably be making less money.
Why this story today stands out?
Well....the Environment Minister Hendricks (SPD) wants to limit the use of glyphosate. She wants farmers to have to apply for permission to use it....meaning it'd be the Environmental Ministry who grants permission....NOT the Agricultural Ministry.
How would this permission be granted, or be disapproved? No one says.
The other problems with this? This gets to being interesting. A fair amount of the fruit and vegetables sold in German groceries....are not produced in Germany. Would this screw up this entire strategy by Hendricks? Well....yeah. Produced even outside of the EU? Well.....yeah. I sat there this week and bought grapes from Brazil, and some oranges from Turkey.
Would German farmers, if denied glyphosate....go and find the next weed-killer? Well.....yeah, that's another interesting topic. I'm guessing that most of the big name chemical companies have an alternate formula ready to go, and will surprise folks with a new chemical. Naturally, in five years....another research group will suggest that this chemical is toxic as well.
All of this leading to some mandated bio-farming deal? That's the sad part of this story. You have to groups with interest in the process. One wants to have an ideal agricultural program, with absolutely no chemicals used at all. This group has no real background over farming or the money involved, or the potential for financial failure. The second group knows what it takes to produce X-amount of fruit or vegetables and doesn't want a whole bunch of rules.
I'm guessing this won't go well for farmers, and you will see a year or two with vast financial failures, and a bunch of German political folks trying to understand why production levels dropped by 10-to-20 percent.
Glyphosate? Well...no, it's not on the list of most working-class Germans.
So to explain the glyphosate issue....a little history.
Back in the 1970s....glyphosate was invented to kill weeds for crop farming. You know it today as 'Roundup'. For almost 40 years, it's been used to downsize the weed problem when producing a crop.
At some point in 2013, the German Federal Institute for Risk Assessment stood up and said the numbers don't relate to a safe weed-killer. For about four years now, there's been several arguments going on within Germany, the EU and the world health organizations. A vast amount of research over forty years says that there is no health hazard. This German research organization has said otherwise.
So we have one German national cabinet group (Department of the Environment) and a second group (the Ministry of Agriculture), which have two different political figures (SPD for the Environment, and CSU for the Agriculture).
The SPD policy is that they want to terminate it in Germany, and throughout the EU. Most farmers aren't really that happy with the SPD policy.
Why the farmer situation? When you produce a row-crop....you are dependent on as few weeds interfering with the production cycle. If your main solution is glyphosate....then you have a fairly good idea of the control over weeds. If you have no use of glyphosate.....then you can depend on a fair growth pattern of weeds, and a lesser production. No one says how much....maybe 5-percent, maybe 10-percent, or maybe 20-percent.
Compensation for the farmers? Well....NO. That's never been discussed by the SPD or their cabinet minister. If you were a farmer and the NO-glyphosate was the rule, you would probably be making less money.
Why this story today stands out?
Well....the Environment Minister Hendricks (SPD) wants to limit the use of glyphosate. She wants farmers to have to apply for permission to use it....meaning it'd be the Environmental Ministry who grants permission....NOT the Agricultural Ministry.
How would this permission be granted, or be disapproved? No one says.
The other problems with this? This gets to being interesting. A fair amount of the fruit and vegetables sold in German groceries....are not produced in Germany. Would this screw up this entire strategy by Hendricks? Well....yeah. Produced even outside of the EU? Well.....yeah. I sat there this week and bought grapes from Brazil, and some oranges from Turkey.
Would German farmers, if denied glyphosate....go and find the next weed-killer? Well.....yeah, that's another interesting topic. I'm guessing that most of the big name chemical companies have an alternate formula ready to go, and will surprise folks with a new chemical. Naturally, in five years....another research group will suggest that this chemical is toxic as well.
All of this leading to some mandated bio-farming deal? That's the sad part of this story. You have to groups with interest in the process. One wants to have an ideal agricultural program, with absolutely no chemicals used at all. This group has no real background over farming or the money involved, or the potential for financial failure. The second group knows what it takes to produce X-amount of fruit or vegetables and doesn't want a whole bunch of rules.
I'm guessing this won't go well for farmers, and you will see a year or two with vast financial failures, and a bunch of German political folks trying to understand why production levels dropped by 10-to-20 percent.
German Jobs Story
Last night via Channel One (ARD, German public TV), they ran a live chat forum with "Hard But Fair". Topic? There's been some layoffs going on around German major companies. The biggest one seen in the past couple of months involved Siemens (3,300 to be laid off).
Workers can't understand this. Political folks are hyped up and responding that Siemens is making billions in profit, so they should just keep the people on the payroll.
In the Siemens case, what happened? At some point between ten and twenty years ago....Siemens hyped up their power and gas turbine industry. They had technology in their corner and the name-brand helped. Then came competition from across the globe eventually. Sales are reported to be lagging. So they have too many people in this turbine industry.
But there is other story, which the forum tended to avoid and German news media folks really don't want to discuss much in front of the public. Not only is Siemens in a tough place....but it's chief competition...GE (of the US)....is in a rough place too.
Reason? There are some people and governments, which pressed forward on renewable energy instead of large fossil-fuel plants powered by the varieties of turbines they sell. Who are these people? Well....the German public. The entire focus of the German news media is that fossil-fuel is 'bad' and renewable energy is 'good'. Never once did they stand there and note that there are tens of thousands of German jobs attached to the gas turbine industry.
How big a hit will this group of 3,300 Siemens folks be? You'd mostly say it's not a big deal but they were fairly specialized and I would have some doubts that the bulk of these people will find work within a year after they are laid off.
The beginning of a trend? If you watched the public forum last night....you might be thinking this. The ability of the political folks to react or help? Zero....they were the ones focused on dumping fossil-fuel operations and saving the world...not German jobs.
Workers can't understand this. Political folks are hyped up and responding that Siemens is making billions in profit, so they should just keep the people on the payroll.
In the Siemens case, what happened? At some point between ten and twenty years ago....Siemens hyped up their power and gas turbine industry. They had technology in their corner and the name-brand helped. Then came competition from across the globe eventually. Sales are reported to be lagging. So they have too many people in this turbine industry.
But there is other story, which the forum tended to avoid and German news media folks really don't want to discuss much in front of the public. Not only is Siemens in a tough place....but it's chief competition...GE (of the US)....is in a rough place too.
Reason? There are some people and governments, which pressed forward on renewable energy instead of large fossil-fuel plants powered by the varieties of turbines they sell. Who are these people? Well....the German public. The entire focus of the German news media is that fossil-fuel is 'bad' and renewable energy is 'good'. Never once did they stand there and note that there are tens of thousands of German jobs attached to the gas turbine industry.
How big a hit will this group of 3,300 Siemens folks be? You'd mostly say it's not a big deal but they were fairly specialized and I would have some doubts that the bulk of these people will find work within a year after they are laid off.
The beginning of a trend? If you watched the public forum last night....you might be thinking this. The ability of the political folks to react or help? Zero....they were the ones focused on dumping fossil-fuel operations and saving the world...not German jobs.
Monday, December 11, 2017
ICE Story
A couple of days ago, I noted the big introduction of the high-speed railway between Berlin and Munich. It was a hyped-up event.....the Chancellor showed up and rode the train. Lots of positive talk.
So, on Sunday....break-down issues occurred with the route.
Somewhere around Nuremberg (maybe the halfway point)....things went wrong, and the train was stalled for 20 minutes. The controllers? They sensed more issues, and took the train off the high-speed railway. They rode the ICE train over to Erfurt on a secondary line (much lesser speed), and then were forced off the train....to wait an hour or two for the next train.
They basically arrived in Berlin at the time of the old non-high-speed railway.
Complaints? I'm guessing they had a few people come up and demand some compensation. I doubt if you'd get any unless the train was completely broke and you were stuck overnight somewhere.
We are back to the same old normal issue, in that things just aren't that 100-percent dependable anymore in Germany.
UPDATE: 12/12/2017: Focus had a reporter on the Munich to Berlin train for last night (Monday). Oddly enough....it failed as well. It was supposed to arrive around 10PM (four-hour ride), but was roughly 12:30 before it got there (2.5 hours late). The railway folks can't really explain the problems that are occurring. There must be some fault-light or sensor showing a problem and the engineer reacts to it.
So, on Sunday....break-down issues occurred with the route.
Somewhere around Nuremberg (maybe the halfway point)....things went wrong, and the train was stalled for 20 minutes. The controllers? They sensed more issues, and took the train off the high-speed railway. They rode the ICE train over to Erfurt on a secondary line (much lesser speed), and then were forced off the train....to wait an hour or two for the next train.
They basically arrived in Berlin at the time of the old non-high-speed railway.
Complaints? I'm guessing they had a few people come up and demand some compensation. I doubt if you'd get any unless the train was completely broke and you were stuck overnight somewhere.
We are back to the same old normal issue, in that things just aren't that 100-percent dependable anymore in Germany.
UPDATE: 12/12/2017: Focus had a reporter on the Munich to Berlin train for last night (Monday). Oddly enough....it failed as well. It was supposed to arrive around 10PM (four-hour ride), but was roughly 12:30 before it got there (2.5 hours late). The railway folks can't really explain the problems that are occurring. There must be some fault-light or sensor showing a problem and the engineer reacts to it.
Sunday, December 10, 2017
Extreme Islamists
ARD (Channel One, public German TV) had a news piece today, which reflected the Salafistian scene in Germany (the extremists within Islam).
The current trend here in Germany.....as Hans-George Maassen (President of the Office for the Protection of the Constitution) puts it.....is on a 'gain'.
Maassen says that Germany now has about 10,800 people who've become full-fledged Salafistian types. That's a plus-up of 500 in just this period since August.
The Germans do a ranking structure to this group of 10,800, and saying only that a small portion are potentially violent.
I sat and read the whole news piece on this topic, and came to this odd piece. While the Office for the Protection of the Constitution is a federal office and establishes federal standards....it is left to the states (16 of them) to determine if people meet the standard or not.
This means that you could have one state viewing the federal standard in one way....going for a higher rate of inclusion into this Salafistian group, and another state going for a lower understanding....thus noting fewer folks into the national database.
I know....it's a lousy way of running the system, but that's the whole method of the Berlin federal leadership situation. In effect, you could have guys in one state, who really ought to be included in the database, and they haven't been nominated.
Do the cops even have enough people to really monitor the 10,800? That question wasn't asked by the journalists writing the report for the network, and it'd be interesting to know this side of the story. My guess is that they might have their browsing monitored, but there's simply not enough cops to do much.
The trend likely to grow? One might take a guess that by the end of 2018....they might reach 12,000.
The current trend here in Germany.....as Hans-George Maassen (President of the Office for the Protection of the Constitution) puts it.....is on a 'gain'.
Maassen says that Germany now has about 10,800 people who've become full-fledged Salafistian types. That's a plus-up of 500 in just this period since August.
The Germans do a ranking structure to this group of 10,800, and saying only that a small portion are potentially violent.
I sat and read the whole news piece on this topic, and came to this odd piece. While the Office for the Protection of the Constitution is a federal office and establishes federal standards....it is left to the states (16 of them) to determine if people meet the standard or not.
This means that you could have one state viewing the federal standard in one way....going for a higher rate of inclusion into this Salafistian group, and another state going for a lower understanding....thus noting fewer folks into the national database.
I know....it's a lousy way of running the system, but that's the whole method of the Berlin federal leadership situation. In effect, you could have guys in one state, who really ought to be included in the database, and they haven't been nominated.
Do the cops even have enough people to really monitor the 10,800? That question wasn't asked by the journalists writing the report for the network, and it'd be interesting to know this side of the story. My guess is that they might have their browsing monitored, but there's simply not enough cops to do much.
The trend likely to grow? One might take a guess that by the end of 2018....they might reach 12,000.
Berlin Story
Cops in Germany will tell you that things have changed an awful lot over the past decade. There is a perception over loss of respect for the police.
Last night in Berlin....in the subway area of Danziger and Kniprodestrasse....cops had observed some teen (16 years old) selling drugs. They approached and attempted to arrest him.
It's a location just north of the Volkspark Friedrichshain on the east end of Berlin. Most of the major drug-sales operations in Berlin...are in city parks now.
The kid resisted. Bad move. Cops continued on.
But now...an associate of the drug-sales kid arrives and begins to help the drug-sales kid fight off the cops. Typically, cops work in pairs.....it's basically two on two at this point. My guess is that the cops called for back-up.
Within a minute or two....more cops arrive on the scene (luckily)....because now there is a group of teens have arrived and attempting to free their young associate. Cops are now resorting to some irritant gas sprayed on the young teens....which keep them from advancing or harming the cops.
No one says precisely how many cops were on the scene, but you'd think it was a minimum of eight cops required.
The teens? Besides the drug-sales kid, three other teens were grabbed and detained in this episode. One was 18....so he'll end up with adult-charges (breach of peace, assault, and resisting arrest). The other two were taken down and their parents called (juveniles). They will still have to appear in a court later, but I doubt that they get much beyond a warning to the parents.
You can shake your head but this is the type of environment that the German cops have to work in.
Last night in Berlin....in the subway area of Danziger and Kniprodestrasse....cops had observed some teen (16 years old) selling drugs. They approached and attempted to arrest him.
It's a location just north of the Volkspark Friedrichshain on the east end of Berlin. Most of the major drug-sales operations in Berlin...are in city parks now.
The kid resisted. Bad move. Cops continued on.
But now...an associate of the drug-sales kid arrives and begins to help the drug-sales kid fight off the cops. Typically, cops work in pairs.....it's basically two on two at this point. My guess is that the cops called for back-up.
Within a minute or two....more cops arrive on the scene (luckily)....because now there is a group of teens have arrived and attempting to free their young associate. Cops are now resorting to some irritant gas sprayed on the young teens....which keep them from advancing or harming the cops.
No one says precisely how many cops were on the scene, but you'd think it was a minimum of eight cops required.
The teens? Besides the drug-sales kid, three other teens were grabbed and detained in this episode. One was 18....so he'll end up with adult-charges (breach of peace, assault, and resisting arrest). The other two were taken down and their parents called (juveniles). They will still have to appear in a court later, but I doubt that they get much beyond a warning to the parents.
You can shake your head but this is the type of environment that the German cops have to work in.
Saturday, December 9, 2017
A Business Trend
This week, the German Federal Ministry of Economics came out with a report that centered on pharmacy operations in Germany.
It's an interesting dilemma that is developing. Based on data, going back three years ago, there are roughly 7,600 pharmacy store-fronts in the country which are in serious economic trouble. Most of them, probably over 75-percent....are in urban areas or major cities.
The background to this is that most of these 7,600 shops are marginally making enough to survive. Long-term....their odds are dismal.
Chief reasons? The Ministry listed out the two obvious ones: online purchases and low store numbers.
I would offer my own analysis at this point.
If you traveled around West Germany in the 1970s and 1980s....there just weren't the density of drug shops that exist today. In Wiesbaden, with a population of 285,000....today, there's a minimum of forty shops existing. In the mid-80's, there were probably in the 25-to-30 shop range. There's been some major growth underway since the 1990s, and frankly.....there are too many for the number to survive....especially with online sales possible.
I can even note my German wife's shopping habits here. If the doctor prescribes anything of a controlled nature....she has no choice but to use the local pharmacy. Beyond that? She buys from an online shop about every four months....bunching three to five items into the delivery order. These online shops don't even have to operate within Germany itself....they can be in the Netherlands or Austria.
The other thing you tend to notice is that pharmacy operations in small towns, especially in rural areas....have shut down. Folks that exist in a 1,000 person town today....will rarely have a pharmacy (the profits just aren't there). You can even see the trend where larger towns with 2,000 residents are having trouble with pharmacy shops existing.
What I see in twenty-five years? I think half the pharmacy shops in Germany will be gone. It's a craft that won't require as many college-educated people. It won't surprise me if Wiesbaden shrinks it's shops down to six-to-eight shops total. The mail-order business? It will simply expand and grow. There's just not any reason to maintain a store-front.
It's an interesting dilemma that is developing. Based on data, going back three years ago, there are roughly 7,600 pharmacy store-fronts in the country which are in serious economic trouble. Most of them, probably over 75-percent....are in urban areas or major cities.
The background to this is that most of these 7,600 shops are marginally making enough to survive. Long-term....their odds are dismal.
Chief reasons? The Ministry listed out the two obvious ones: online purchases and low store numbers.
I would offer my own analysis at this point.
If you traveled around West Germany in the 1970s and 1980s....there just weren't the density of drug shops that exist today. In Wiesbaden, with a population of 285,000....today, there's a minimum of forty shops existing. In the mid-80's, there were probably in the 25-to-30 shop range. There's been some major growth underway since the 1990s, and frankly.....there are too many for the number to survive....especially with online sales possible.
I can even note my German wife's shopping habits here. If the doctor prescribes anything of a controlled nature....she has no choice but to use the local pharmacy. Beyond that? She buys from an online shop about every four months....bunching three to five items into the delivery order. These online shops don't even have to operate within Germany itself....they can be in the Netherlands or Austria.
The other thing you tend to notice is that pharmacy operations in small towns, especially in rural areas....have shut down. Folks that exist in a 1,000 person town today....will rarely have a pharmacy (the profits just aren't there). You can even see the trend where larger towns with 2,000 residents are having trouble with pharmacy shops existing.
What I see in twenty-five years? I think half the pharmacy shops in Germany will be gone. It's a craft that won't require as many college-educated people. It won't surprise me if Wiesbaden shrinks it's shops down to six-to-eight shops total. The mail-order business? It will simply expand and grow. There's just not any reason to maintain a store-front.
The Munich-Berlin Train Story
If you follow German news from last night, they were all hyped up over a new railway accomplishment.
The ICE (the high-speed railway of Germany) has opened up a new route between Munich and Berlin. It's a 623 km route (392 miles). They ran the first train on the route....taking just under four hours....dropping the old time down by two hours.
In general, there's around 1.8 million people who used this railway service in an average year. Some folks think that it'll increase now because of the shorter time.
Cost to reach this level? Ten billion Euro. A fairly big chunk of money.
Normal flight time? You can figure around 80 minutes for the flight itself, and another 120 minutes for the security, check-in and luggage pick-up. So it's near 3.5 hours to play the flight game.
It's an enticement. I could see the railway folks advertising in both the Munich and Berlin areas with a massive appeal....beat the stress of air-travel.
If you think about it....you get the taxi to pick you up and drop you off at the side door of the Munch station. You have a pre-booked seat and simply walk to the ramp, and board the train ten minutes prior to leaving. You have a reserved seat, and a free Wi-Fi situation. If you need refreshments, you make your way to the middle of the train and sit down to have a beer. At the end of the trip, you simply get up and walk out of the station to another taxi.
The odds of airline flights decreasing between Munch and Berlin? I'd take a guess that in four years, you might see forty-percent less flights occurring.
One last footnote to this four-hour ride....some folks are suggesting that real estate in both Munich and Berlin....will go through a pricing change because of this great addition coming to their communities. This is a hard deal to analyze and figure out. Maybe on the high-end housing, it might be a plus of some kind.
The ICE (the high-speed railway of Germany) has opened up a new route between Munich and Berlin. It's a 623 km route (392 miles). They ran the first train on the route....taking just under four hours....dropping the old time down by two hours.
In general, there's around 1.8 million people who used this railway service in an average year. Some folks think that it'll increase now because of the shorter time.
Cost to reach this level? Ten billion Euro. A fairly big chunk of money.
Normal flight time? You can figure around 80 minutes for the flight itself, and another 120 minutes for the security, check-in and luggage pick-up. So it's near 3.5 hours to play the flight game.
It's an enticement. I could see the railway folks advertising in both the Munich and Berlin areas with a massive appeal....beat the stress of air-travel.
If you think about it....you get the taxi to pick you up and drop you off at the side door of the Munch station. You have a pre-booked seat and simply walk to the ramp, and board the train ten minutes prior to leaving. You have a reserved seat, and a free Wi-Fi situation. If you need refreshments, you make your way to the middle of the train and sit down to have a beer. At the end of the trip, you simply get up and walk out of the station to another taxi.
The odds of airline flights decreasing between Munch and Berlin? I'd take a guess that in four years, you might see forty-percent less flights occurring.
One last footnote to this four-hour ride....some folks are suggesting that real estate in both Munich and Berlin....will go through a pricing change because of this great addition coming to their communities. This is a hard deal to analyze and figure out. Maybe on the high-end housing, it might be a plus of some kind.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)