28 Feb 2025: Four German News Stories

 1.  There's talk out of Frankfurt.....a direct-train into London....through the Chunnel.  Lot of planning required, and they'd have to have a border-control station set up in the Frankfurt station. 

Not BS....the way they talk....it'll happen within 3 years.

2.  The German Federal Prosecutor's Office says they will file murder charges against Solingen radicalized attacker (3 dead, 10 wounded). They seem convinced that mental illness will not screw up the case.

3.  BMW says they have a design on a hydrogen-powered car engine. They seem willing to prioritize it ahead of the E-car strategy.

4.  Coalition efforts now start....figure a minimum of four weeks....before the gov't is finalized.

Election Lawsuit?

 Well...the BSW Party missed getting seats in the Bundestag by .028 percent (in the 13k vote range).  

So there's talk of a legal battle  over the screw-ups in overseas ballots, and 'some' ballots weren't mailed out in time.

Odds of a legal situation?  I'd give it a 50-50 range.

The problem is....it' go to the Constitutional Court and you'd have to give them at least six to eight months before they gave a verdict.  Worst-case scenario?  They tell the gov't to re-do the election.  

In some ways, it's like the Berlin-City election of four years ago, and how they were ordered to repeat the election.

In this scenario?  Well....you would hear around December a court-verdict, and a new election would occur in March of 2026 (my humble guess).   SPD being happy over this matter?  Yeah, I think they'd appreciate a new run.  

On the crazy index (1-10)?  I'd give it a '8'.  Back in November....a couple  of journalists talked over this 'quick' election being rigged up and how overseas ballots would be a problem.

Why The Immigration Doorway Has To Exist In Germany?

 Back in the early 1900s Germany...you had a serious health concern going....with too many women attempting to have kids.   At some point....doctors, nurses, and educated women came together and developed a birth control pamphlet.  Nothing fancy....just simple instructions.

Almost immediately....the authorities came down negative over this pamphlet.  The police gave warnings, and some folks were arrested.  Pamphlets kept  going out.

WW I briefly halted the arrests. Two-million German men died in the war.  A large segment of women became labor because of the shortage.

What you can say in the 1920s and 1930s....birth control was at work.  

After WW II....a large segment of women were now part of commerce.  In the early 1960s...the gov't realized that a population problem was existing.  To patch up industry....Turks, Italians and various non-Germans were hired. Tax credits were developed....to encourage you to have more kids.

A typical German couple by the 1980s were having 1.5 to 1.7 kids.  Where it stands today?  1.46 kids per couple.

So the authorities and commerce are worried. They need some type of 'new' German to exist.  From nursing to grocery-clerk....there's a urgent need for more people to exist.  The migration doorway is the accepted answer.

If you were to be critical of how they ran the program....it was probably not that smart to say 'anyone' could play a role in this migration situation.  You needed to recruit, and ask questions.....leaving some people out. 

Just plain halting migration,  period?  Probably not that smart....you'd just end up with a massive shortage of manpower.  

That's the whole story....as simple as you can make it.

27 Feb 2025: Six German News Stories

 1.  SPD Party met, and elected a new parliamentary group leader, Lars Klingbeil.  Solid vote?  No....it was 86-percent in favor....so some folks unhappy.

Top SPD figure? Well....NO.  Most folks would say that Defense Minister Boris Pistorius is the most popular SPD figure.

2.  Green Party going to the same routine...change of leadership?  Habeck  has said now that he won't be seeking a leadership role in the new landscape.

3. This request by the CDU (Merz in particular) of the NGO's sponsoring demonstrations in  Germany....to have a audit....has gotten the SPD folks riled-up. It would appear...this request has to drop...before coalition chats can get real serious.

4.  The odds of a coalition talks failure?  Typically, this never happens in German politics.   Presently, I'd say there are twenty-plus hard points in which failure could occur.  You typically give the winner-party a max of eight weeks to wrap up the coalition talks.  If no coalition can be formed....with the 2nd place winner, or the 3rd place winner.....then a new election occurs. 

I checked the numbers....the SPD, Greens and Linke Party....would  not have the numbers to form a new gov't coalition....IF the CDU-CSU fail.

5.  Duisburg officials have discovered from a raid in a apartment building from four months ago....resulted in a new count of 'kids'....families had turned in fake data, and the social agency was paying for 59 non-existent kids.  

Based on how the story is told in the press...it would seem these were non-Germans and they were manipulating the local social agency....to get higher levels of welfare payments.

6.  This plane from Pakistan....carrying 165 Afghan folks into Germany, from a couple of days ago?   This was a group who were on a list of 'persecuted' Afghans, and the present coalition gov't (SPD-Greens-FDP) had approved the folks. 

The Difference Between The 1912 and 1919 German Election

 Vote-wise?  

1919: 30.4-million total votes

1912: 12.2-million total votes

Why the difference?  Well....two things occurred by 1919. First.....women in Germany were given the right to vote.  Second, the voting age was lowered.....so if you were 20-to-24.....male or female....you now had the right to vote.

I should point this out as well....the total number of seats in the Bundestag for 1912.....were 397....divided among 21 parties.

For 1919, there were 421 total Bundestag seats....among 10 parties.

The '216' Problem

 I've brought this up occasionally....that the German Constitution is a pretty flexible document,  and every year or two....there's a change.

So the topic came up yesterday....new incoming Chancellor Merz (CDU-CSU)....wants a slight change (relaxation of the debt 'brake').

Well...when you have the  new coalition gather-up....the AfD, Linke, and Greens....will control 216 seats in the Bundestag....enough to block any Constitutional change.

So, he wants the current Chancellor (Scholz) with his coalition remaining, and CDU-CSU help....probably with FDP votes too....to make the change (now).

Any of this illegal?  No.  The rules say that the current Bundestag (with Scholz)...is seated until 25 March.  

For the next our four years?  Well....the 216-seat problem will exist, and I suspect that zero Constitutional changes will occur.

26 Feb 2025: Three German News Stories

1. Last night via the ZDF  talk-show...."Markus Lanz"....coalition talks came up.   Guests voiced  position that these would be extremely difficult.  Youth-wing of SPD....JUSO....their comment made it pretty clear  that the CDU would  have to give upon a  number of promises.   CDU guest (Linnemann) suggested that if the talks failed....quote: "Then the AfD will be at 40 percent next time."

In general, my humble thought is that deportation has to get on-track and be more successful.  Otherwise....yeah, the AfD will be  up in mid-20s to 30 percent.

2.  Bundestag odd moment yesterday....CDU is asking questions of finance for  protest organizations....that are mostly left/far-left.   It's been a big-deal over past three months....mostly run by three organizations....Correctiv, Campact and the Antonio Amadeu Foundation.

Both the Greens and SPD were aggravated. 

3.  A group called 'Islamic State' has called for an attack on the Koln Fasching parade.

How Fast Did The Communist Party of Germany Expand?

 First notable election....1920....with 529k votes.

Second election....May of 1924....3.7-million votes.

Third election....December of 1924....2.7-million votes.

Fourth election.....May of 1928....3.3-million votes.

Fifth election....September of 1930....4.6-million votes.

Sixth election....July of 1932....5.3-million votes.

Seventh  election....November of 1932....6-million votes.

Eighth election....March of 1933....4.8-million votes.

Ninth election....November of 1933....all parties removed from the ballot except for the Nazis.

25 Feb 2025: Five German News Stories

 1.  Last week....that knife attack against the tourist at the Holocaust Memorial in Berlin (guy was lucky, just wounded)....I read that the city prosecutor has been told....'no, it's a German fed investigation.'

It'll be fed charges and fed prison....when the end comes.

2. Next election?  Hamburg 'state' election, 2 March.  Polls showing SPD likely to win with 32-percent. Greens in 2nd....with 19-percent.

3.   Quick agreement on the coalition framework? NO.

SPD has suggested that  they won't be readily agreeable to the CDU-CSU package.  Klingbeil  is the key SPD figure to watch over the next month....as they work the coalition deal.

Via a news update on ARD last night....they listed out differences in  'promises' between the SPD and CDU-CSU....at least thirty key differences.

4.  ÖVP, SPÖ and Neos in Austria near agreement on coalition talks.

5.  From last night's 'Hard But Fair' public forum show (ARD, public TV)....curious discussion came up over the election.

Philipp Amthor (CDU) talked up: voters want an end to "left-wing politics."

To be honest here....if you count CDU-CSU and AfD votes....roughly 50-percent of the vote went against left-wing politics.