Thursday, April 3, 2025

The Limits Topic

 There was an interesting to come from the President of the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) yesterday.  The guy (Hans-Eckhard Sommer) says Germany ought to replace individual asylum rights (currently in place for years and years)....with some type of humanitarian admission quota system.

Reason?  He says presently....there's a fair amount of abuse.

Getting the CDU-CSU to accept this?  Fairly easy.  SPD....less so.  For the Greens and Linke Party...massively unacceptable.

For at least ten years (during the Merkel era)....there was continually talk of a EU-quota system....forcing each EU member to accept the 'burden'....to relieve the stress of the anti-migrant efforts (AfD) in Germany.

If you put this to a national referendum?  I suspect currently....roughly two-thirds of the public would agree to some type of quota-system, with limits.  Constitution preventing this?  To some degree.

Before 2013....how did the migration program work?  If you start at 1990 (unified Germany)....there were generally around 150,000 to 200,000....with 2014 being the turbo year (450,000).  From 1976 to 1987....Germany took in ethnic Germans (from Russia)....at around 550k to 600k.  From the 1970s to 1980s....West Germany took in 40k asylum seekers per year (an exception in 1980, with Sri Lankans in the 70k brought in because of conflict).

Presently? Out of the 84-million residents of Germany...around 14-to-14.5-million are non-German (not holding citizenship....if you do the numbers....around 16-to-17-percent of the public). (Grok numbers)

Any possibility of this change occurring?  No...I give it dismal odds.  

But here's the thing....this is going to be discussed a great deal, and be a burden for the Green Party to stand up against  in public forums.

Do I Really Buy Anything American Off The German Economy?

 With all the tariff chatter.....I started in January looking at my purchase habits here in Germany.

Grocery-wise?  I probably shop once a month at the commissary....for items like A1 sauce, bar-b-q sauce, and five-to-eight other items....made in the US.  Off the German economy....other than US-whiskey....everything is  European-made in nature.

Non-grocery items?  I might buy a pair of jeans once a year from the BX (US-made)....most clothing items are non-US made (meaning from Pakistan, Honduras, or Egypt) and from a German shop.

Me shopping in France?  Well.....about every six months....I make a run to 'Cora' (across the border).  

So all this tariff, and anti-Trump chatter?  There's a very limited amount of US cars made in the US....which end up in Germany.  Jeep?  Well....most of what is sold in Germany...is  Mexico-manufactured.  Tesla?  Germany-manufactured.  Ford-Mustang/Bronco?  US-made.  

If you drove around Germany....you  might spot five to ten US-made vehicles per day....out of 10,000 you observe.  

So I question if Germans ever buy much American-made.

3 April 2025: Seventeen German News Stories

 1.  Some German gov't chatter of a 'fee' if you scheduled a doctor's appointment and fail to show.  How much?  Talk seems to suggest 10 to 20 Euro.

2.  Tax increases under the new coalition?  Well....the chatter is mostly 'no'....CDU-CSU pretty much set on no new taxes.

3.  The High-Deck housing building (apartment structure) in Berlin-Neukölln....developed a Legionella problem. 

Authorities have put a 'shower-ban' in place (2 weeks).  As you might imagine....residents are a bit peeved over the hygiene issue.

4. If you were ever stationed  around the Bitburg area....a bit of news.

Back in 2021....the British Frasers Group bought property on the old base site....to build its European headquarters. 

Frasers?  Sporting goods retailer.

So this was a investment of 350 million Euro and was supposed to create 800 jobs. Yeah, it's been years since the local  area had a jobs development situation like this.

But there's been lawsuits...by environmentalists....to keep the runway area 'protected'.

The original lawsuit (locally) was tossed out last year.  The group running the situation on court challenges....then took it to the state level....supposed to an announcement shortly. 

If the state court tosses the challenge?  It  could go to the Constitutional Court (in theory)....costing another 12 to 18 months.

Frasers?  At this point...they are beginning to question if this ever occur.

I was stationed at the base for 14 months (leaving as it closed).  I  considered the base fairly small (like Sembach).  Looking  at the drawing  of what they intend to build....it probably takes up a quarter of what the old base occupied. 

5.  How the Mar 2026 Baden-Wuerttemberg state election  is shaping up?

Well....the Greens at this point are in 2nd place for polling (20-percent)....12 points off where they were four years ago.  CDU?  Leading with 31-percent (INSA polling).  3rd place?  AfD with 15-percent.  4th place?  SPD with 13-percent.  

The two gainers?  I'd say the CDU and AfD.

6.  Over the past couple of years....I've mentioned Görlitzer Park in Berlin a fair bit.  Going back 30 years ago....the city turned this  railway yard into a city park....then discovered a decade later....it was 'junkie-magnet'.  So in the past five years....locals have demanded the city do 'something'  to control the situation.

The city decided a few months ago....to put up a fence (yeah, you can call it a security fence....with gates). 

In the past month as they've tried to get companies to bid on erecting the fence....threatening letters have gone out to the commercial companies bidding.

Whether the fence is ever built or not...unknown.

My humble view....it might be time to just condemn the park idea, and rip it up....to put in apartment buildings. 

7.  WELT story....39-percent of Germans now worried about a war with Russia.

Over the past three years...my German wife has engaged on this topic at least ten times....usually after some news item designed to get people 'worried'. I've insisted to her....if Russia can't defeat Ukraine....it's a lost cause to take on Germany at this point.

Upsetting the public in voting?  I wouldn't say that at this point, but it's a high number of folks discussing the matter.

8.  I sat and watched a piece from ZDF news....one in four folks (age 18-to-25)...in Germany....has some psychological stress. 

What is the solution?  Apparently....apps with artificial intelligence to 'talk to'.

How these folks got this way?  Unknown, and it's just odd....leaving that whole side of the story untold.

9.   Bitkom did a survey showing that 195 million old cell phones are sitting in German residences....unused.

I often bring this topic up to my wife....who has probably four 'old' cellphones...besides her current operational phone.

She even has one phone from the 2005/2006 era.  

10.  The Bahn losses for 2024?  1.8-billion Euro.

11.  Article 21 of the Basic Law (German Constitution) came up yesterday, and I had to read through it again.  The law says....once you've been sworn in as a official of the German gov't (like mayor, premier-president  or Chancellor)....you are NEUTRAL and can't really hype some serious criticism over  another party.  You can comment about a position, but you  can't go full-blast like you would in the US.

This comes up because of a AfD court situation against the former premier-President of the Pfalz (Dryer)...who made a harsh statement while in her official duty.  

12.  Is Telsa down-trending due to recent Elon-events?

Well....if you look at 2024 German new E-car registrations...the OVERALL E-car trend was spiraling down already last year....so it's hard to say recent antics did anything much extra

13.  This downward trend on CDU-CSU polling...blame going to Merz?

I would suggest that a fair amount of criticism  goes to promises made by the CDU-CSU parties, and in these coalition talks....it seems that supporters are pretty harsh on the path that Merz is taking.

As for harm?  There are seven state elections in 2026....and  yes, some of these  elections will be harmed.

The  plus-side for the CDU-CSU presently? Baden-Wurttemberg, Hessen and Bavaria.  The rest are suspect.

14.  Berlin-City is discussing dumping mandatory dog-license, and instead.....having a listing  where you present your dog, and have a temperament 'test'  instead.  Some breeds of dogs would benefit.

15.  K-Town Health Department declared....three locals have TB.  Investigation going on....to see if it is more widespread.

16.  If you were a regular German grocery-shopper....in the past year, you might have noted that weekly printed brochures telling you of the 'specials' just plain ended.  What most (not all) went to? An App, which you would download.

Well...N-TV did a interview and experts now say once the brochure business ended....people went to less grocery shopping.  Roughly 50-percent of folks said they shop mostly by brochure....saying 'no' to the App.

17.  Rain-fall in the Frankfurt-Wiesbaden valley?

Well....the dry period continues....since mid-December 2024.  For April, there's not much anticipated rain.  If you get anything...it'll be a brief shower or two (for ten minutes). I mowed my grass today (1st of the season)....at the current pace....I doubt that I mow more than 2 times before early July.

Wednesday, April 2, 2025

Business Story

 I read a business piece off Focus this AM.  Curious story of a CEO in Germany....who was hiring for a prime-management position.

I should state....the CEO is a guy, and the candidate being interviewed was a woman.

So in this case....the interview went well, and the offer was to be made....then this female candidate asked for one 'thing'....she wanted the CEO to 'talk' with her husband.

The purpose?  Well....to give insight if the job and company was a 'fit' for the wife (the husband was going to hear this out and offer his opinion to the wife).

The CEO....hearing the request....said 'no' and retracted the offer. He didn't want someone second-guessing management.

I pondered over this.  I've handled a couple of interviews for candidates in my life and there's a splitting point for me. For a clerk or technician....confidence isn't a big-deal.  For management....there can be no doubt in your mind....the person has to be able to make decisions on their own....without someone else involved.

One would  think after four to six years of college, and five-to-ten years of effort....you'd have the talent to make decisions.  

2 April 2025: Four German News Stories

 1.  Interesting piece from N-TV last night.....EU is discussing a reversal of the combustion engine ban (set for 2035).

Several countries are saying this E-car forced trend.....is a bad idea.  The report presented?  Well....German car makers are firmly attached to the E-car path....so if there is a reversal....they will be hurt to an extreme point.

2. CDU-CSU and SPD talking over coalition topics...brings up possible mandatory natural  disaster insurance idea.  No idea of cost for such insurance....but I would imagine if your village runs along a stream or creek....you will be assuming a hefty amount of cost.

3. CDU Bundestag members call for Kufiya (Arab scarf) ban in the Bundestag. 

4.  Violent crime statistics for Germany increased for 2024.  Expect this to be openly discussed a good bit over the next week.

Tuesday, April 1, 2025

Polling Chatter

RTL/NTV ran a poll last week....the CDU/CSU numbers?  25-percent.

AfD?  24-percent.

Yeah....only 1-point separating the two.  Logic?  I'd say the stumbling around by the CDU-CSU in building the coalition....has hurt them to some degree.

Other parties? SPD at 15-percent....Greens at 12-percent, and Linke Party at 10-percent.

BSW and FDP....at 4-percent each.

The odds of AfD passing by mid-summer?  Well....Merz (the  incoming Chancellor) needs the economy in positive numbers, and no terror-action....to stay ahead.  

If AfD were to reach 30-percent, and CDU-CSU to fall to around 20-percent?  The news media will freak out, and worry will trend upwards for 2026's state elections.