A Chaotic Greece

Greece will have the 'yes/no' vote on the EU bailout deal this Sunday (5th).  This is my script as to what happens.

The last election for Greeks was about a year ago, and 69-percent of the registered voters came out (roughly 6.33 million people).

My estimate that it'll be roughly the same number.....around six million.  No one in Greece is predicting the outcome of this vote.  My bet is that 'no' wins at around 55-to-60 percent.

What happens next?  The banks hint that they will be taking funds left in accounts where the amount is more than 8,000 Euro.  If you were a business man with 100,000 Euro in the account....you just lost 92,000 Euro.  You can figure out the amount of frustration involved at that point.

As for banks reopening next week?  I'd say zero chance on Monday, and if they do open for the remainder of the week.....you probably won't be able to remove more than a hundred Euro (my humble guess).

I'd take another humble guess that by the week of the 13th.....most banks will be shut down because there simply isn't any more cash.

Vacation cancellations?  Well, even if your reservations were solid and you carried a thousand Euro with you.....then what?  I can't see any taxis being in operation at the Athens International Airport because of the lack of money and no real way to pay for fuel or bills.  It's questionable if the subway system will continue to be in operation.....to get you from the airport into Athens.  And when you finally get there.....can you even be sure that restaurants are open to feed you because there's no market activity for fruit, vegetables, meat, etc?  How many shops will be open to sell you items?  That would be questionable as well.

By the end of July.....I don't see that many tourists flying in.

Maybe the current government can survive this deal but I have my doubts.  Most Greeks will be fed up with the crisis by the end of July, and demand another election.  You can figure at least six weeks for the political parties to run up their advertising and candidates.....so it'd be early September for some election to occur.  And then what?  Would any real change occur?

All of this leads me to predict that half-a-million Greeks will exit Greece between now and 1 October of this year.  Why stay?  You'd be better off as a street-sweeper in Germany or a car-wash guy in Austria.....than remain in Greece under these conditions.

The odd thing is that you can ask a dozen people what this election is about and to confirm some details over what they are voting for.....and I doubt if more than two people can really say much.  The rest will simply identify their party's platform and stance on what to vote for.  It's a sad way to handle this type of situation.....knowing nothing and relying on some political idiots to tell you how to vote.

Chaos in leadership.....usually gets nothing but chaos in life.