More Greece

I picked up The Full Catastrophe by James Angelos yesterday and got about seventy pages into it so far.  It's an up to date book over Greece and how they screwed up....year after year.....decade after decade.  I would strongly recommend it to anyone who is curious about the Greece mess.

I noted in Monday's episode at the EU.....Guy Verhofstadt (Belgium representative at the EU), gave a fairly blunt speech to the Greek Prime Minister and basically said that they weren't that naive at the EU anymore.  If you have time.....it's a short seven-minute speech and you can find at YouTube.  The Greeks might be able to find thirty-percent of the folks at the EU who would vote for more cash and more time.  I have doubts that it'd ever go past the fifty percent point based on comments spoken by several German journalists.

The three-year deal?  Well.....from what the news folks talk about.....Greece is saying 'enough', and intends to drop the Euro but wants three years to stabilize things, and the Greeks need cash to survive this three year period.  So far.....no one says how how much.  From the 300-odd billion of the last effort, they survived almost five years.  So logically, you'd figure we'd be talking about 150-odd billion Euro as a minimum.

I have doubts that Greece will get 150-odd billion Euro.....I have doubts that the EU would even offer 30-odd billion Euro.

As folks come up on Sunday and hear the active discussion and determine the final stage of the event.....my belief is that Greece will be offered an exit to the Euro and be able to stay within the 'zone' under some amazing umbrella of sorts.  The EU will offer up some 60-to-90 day 'gift' (never to be paid back) and just say that's the end of this relationship.  Greece will have to stage the Drachma return or find a second currency on its own.

Can the Drachma return in 90 days?  My humble guess is yes.  Contract out the service....haul the currency out to banks, and figure the right exchange rate.  Prioritize your tasks and do only what is required.  Huge inflation in the first year?  Absolutely.  Hostility by the hotels and tourist operations?  Absolutely.

The thing is....no one outside of Greece believes that they can change or fix their problems.  Lack of confidence now.....is a bigger problem than the crisis itself.