This Germany Economic 'Bubble' Spiral

Economists argue over this....some say the spiral started with Covid....some say it started  in 2022 as Covid became a non-issue....some will say between 2017 and 2020,  you could see industry in decline.

If you see a discussion going on....they usually say bad policy without consequences at the ballot box carried the nation to the current point.

Lately.....the news media (public TV) says the decline started with the Iran 'war'...missing everything from 2022, or 2023 or 2024.

The funny thing?  The reason why so many Germans voted for the CDU/Merz in the last election....was that he understood commerce/business/economics.  The general feeling was that he would serve as some 'Moses' character....bringing things back into focus..

So....at this point?  Merz had to build  a coalition around the SPD...who need higher taxes to cover the promised programs. SPD numbers?  If you look at current polls....they marginally can get 12-percent of the national vote.  

Yeah, there is a drama unfolding....with most Germans disgruntled about the trend.

8 May 2026: Germany: 4 Things

 1.  Leipzig car-attack episode from Monday.  Update: authorities now say....for a while (long before the event)...the German attacker 'heard voice' (paranoid schizophrenia situation). 

I'll go and predict...judge evaluates the guy and he's set into a mental facility....no charges.

2. Interest in German money-market accounts up....some banks over 3-percent now for savings.

3. Public forum show from Thursday night....ZDF....political chatter, and the idea of replacing Merz as Chancellor came up.  The person talked about?   Bavaria Premier-President Soder (CSU).

No one has polled CDU-members (only card-carriers could  vote on such a matter), and the SPD would still likely be a coalition-partner (they'd have to agree to this matter, with some changes likely to occur). 

4.  Commerzbank is cutting 4,000 more jobs shortly.  

7 May 2026: Germany: 9 Things

 1.  New German military questionnaire is mandated for a response.  So, the Bundeswehr said yesterday....roughly 25-percent of young men are NOT responding.

From the group  that did respond....around half of them said they were agreeable to a boot-camp situation, and six months of 'duty'.  Bundeswehr added...just because they said they were agreeable....doesn't mean they'd sign up.

Those who did not respond?  Well...the Army says they will be threatened with a fine.  

2.  It's been around 2 years since Germany legalized weed/cannabis.   Some folks are beginning to comment....nothing much has changed...meaning that illegal weed sales is still being conducted.  

3.  Read a Focus business article....for you to retire in Germany and be 'middle-class'....pension level has to be 1850 Euro a month.

4.  Odd Lufthansa story from yesterday....they are reviewing options for long-haul flights...if jet-fuel shortages exist.

One idea  being floated....having  a stop-over (probably in the stan-republics or Russia)....to fuel up for Asia trips.  

You'd be adding two to three hours to the trip.  

5.  Economics Minister....Katherina Reiche....wants to overturn the ban on oil and gas heating starting in 2045. 

Drafted up currently.  Chancellor Merz says this idea is “open.” 

SPD support?  I'd give it a 10-percent chance at best.....climate target is their focus.

The agenda is to force everyone down a heat-pump 'path'.

6.  New poll for Sachsen-Anhalt state election (in four months):

AfD at 41-percent.  CDU at 26-percent.  

Greens at 4-percent (not enough for seats).  SPD at 7-percent.  Linke at 12-percent.

Meaning?  AfD, if they stay at 41-percent...can't build a coaltion....the CDU could in theory partner with SPD and Linke to have a 50-plus-percent coalition.

HOWEVER, in the next four months...if AfD reaches 45-percent...it'll be fairly close to a NO-coalition situation.....one party gov't at that point.

7.   Lot more chatter on this Hantavirus.  It apparently has a 2-to-21 day incubation period. Presents initially as flu.

8. I watched about 15 minutes of public forum show....Maischberger....last night...via Channel 1.

Climate change talk....guest wanted to turn German citizens into CO₂ traders....where you had good numbers/bad numbers....and you would figure into certificate trading.

Pretty sure that 90-percent of society would not buy into this idea.

9. Carsten Linnemann, General Secretary of the CDU Party, gave a talk yesterday....suggesting that 50,000 card-carrying CDU members....might exit from the party.

Hondius Story

 For about 36 hours, I've been following this hantavirus story.

Basic facts....it's a small passenger vessel that is Dutch-flagged...named 'Hondius'.  They've had a outbreak on it of hantavius (likely got it from Argentina when it last docked).  

149 guests were onboard....three dead from the virus so far.

What the medical folks say....the virus is mostly spread by rodents/mice...not by human-contact.  Well....there's some discussion that 'maybe' it evolved and goes person-to-person.

Dynamics?  Death-rate is figured between 1-percent and 15-percent....but your  fragile health situation might increase your odds.  Based on reporting....the three dead were older folks.

So the folks surviving....would like to get off, and they are nearing the Canary Islands....so there is this request to dock. The Premier-President of the Canary Islands, Fernando Clavijo, says 'no-way'...opposing the plan of the Spanish central government and the World Health Organization (WHO). 

Forcing the PM (Sanchez) into a corner?  I expect some medical authorities to fly in and take charge...letting the vessel to dock, but holding passengers for a few days until they sort out the mess.

Quarantining passengers?  Yeah....there's that option.

If they find it has progressed to human-to-human contact?  Docking is going to be a tough discussion.

Ghost Story

 I will occasionally pick up some Brit news pieces.  This AM....I got to one oddball story.  The Daily Star says...something to the effect...they found a paranormal 'expert' who claims the UK is running out of ghosts.  Reason?  Well...they say ghosts are dying off.

The problem with some story like this....a hundred Brits will read it....with forty folks getting chatty at the local pub tonight...about ghosts dying off.  

Bartender will get into this...asking HOW the ghost die off....with this conversation going on for three hours.

Someone will eventually suggest we need fresh new ghosts...out of thin air.

Then someone will suggest....can't we get AI to interface, and provide fake-ghosts?

The reality?  They've run out of Prince Harry or King Charles bogus stories to discuss.

Two Odd Stories

 1.  Is Israel about to provide jet-fuel to Germany?

Yes.....5 May agreement.  Israeli Energy and Infrastructure Minister Eli Cohen and Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar announced that Israel will transfer surplus jet fuel to Germany (Berlin’s request). 

Necessity?  Well....this follows the ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz (blocked by Iran since late February.

Israel confirmed it has enough surplus from its refineries to begin shipments.  What's left out of the story...is the amount.

Shocker?  This move was coordinated quickly and publicly.

Natural gas talked about? Yes....they've got plenty to export.  

2.  At some point (July-August)....the Pentagon's UFO files are directed to be released.  Lot of speculation building up.

I'll  go ahead and predict that zero German belief...if the files suggest crashes, recoveries, or alien visitations.  

You could bring the alien on ARD, do a 6-hour interview with the guy, and roughly 99-percent of German society would suggest 'deep-fake' BS.

6 May 2026: Germany: 8Things

 1.  Timmy-the-whale-update:  Argument brewing....some pro-Timmy folks now believe that data-tracking/status stuff....is bluffing, and that Timmy is dead.

Proof?  Not much to really ponder upon.  If you ask me....leaving Timmy in that German coastal  area....you would have seen Timmy dead sooner or later.

2.  Biontech, the Mainz company that made the Covid vaccine.....is in serious financial woes. 

3. Poll done....ONLY 11-percent of Germans are satisfied over the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition.  Done by RTL/N-TV.

Another recent poll centered on around 60-percent of Germans wanting new election.

My advice....just stick with the present crew....unless you really wanted maximum turmoil/craziness.

4. About that Leipzig car-attack....if you read through twenty-odd news groups....you come to three odd factors.

First, that car-ramming attacker....apparently did admit himself to a psychiatric ward....on his own. In this process....I'll note that he was married and had a kid.

Second, somewhere along a couple of days in the clinic...the management/psychiatrists apparently decided that this guy was too violent/aggressive to be in their facility....so they put him out on the street.

Third, he was dismissed Sunday....Monday comes.....where he rammed the car through a crowd in Leipzig’s city center at 80 km/h.

Out of the 410-odd psychiatric clinics that exist in Germany....you can't really find data to suggest what number handle violent folks...I'm guessing  less than 5-percent.

5.  Explaining Romania?  Summer of 2025...election came up and a pro-EU party 'won'....but they had to form a 4-party coalition to gain power (getting 50-plus percent of seats).  I'll just say it.....this was a weak/marginalized coalition.  Ten months later....because of economic woes...one of the parties walk out....ending the coalition, and forcing a new election. Just being pro-EU was not enough.

6.  Poll done by INSA....suggesting how Germans feel about the next coalition.  So around  26-percent of Germans want a CDU-CSU-AfD coalition.  23-percent want a CDU-CSU-SPD coalition (what exists today).  24-percent want a Green-SPD-Linke coalition (all left).  Then you have the 4th option....27-percent who really give a damn.     

Yeah...the 4th group is ahead of the other three.

7.  Another poll done....says 55-percent of  Germans expect a premature end to the current CDU-CSU-SPD coalition.....meaning more than half the voters feel this way.

8. Vileck mayor talking over exit of the 5,000 US troops from local area....millions in income....to dissolve.

What Percentage Of Germans Worry About Artificial Intelligence ('KI' in German)?

A insurance company asked this in mid-2025, publishing the results in their annual  R+V “Ängste der Deutschen 2025” survey....concluding it was near 32-percent...who 'feared' KI.

For a number of months, it's been on my mind....one out of three....with fear.

Why?

Well....I think a fair number got this 'panic' via public TV and mass media.  If you went to details....most probably have the fear that their jobs are in jeopardy....because of KI.

I asked my German wife over this...her company has been talking KI for five years now....swearing up and down that it was 'coming'.  So far....the performance level in tests? They've been crap. It is getting smarter....but the wife says at the pace of things, it might be twenty years before the humans are dismissed.

The day when I really start to worry? It's probably when ARD or ZDF (the public TV networks)....dismiss the live performance newscast each night....letting KI take over and give the nightly news.

What Is The App W Social?

 W Social (also called W or wsocial.eu) is a new European social media platform.  It's supposed to be a 'clean'/'pure' alternative to platforms like X (Twitter). 

Initially talked about...January 2026...at the World Economic Forum in Davos and is supposed to start a launch in the next couple of days here in Europe.

Design?  Well...it's supposed to be VERIFIED humans only....NO bots.  Every single user must verify their identity with government ID.  Biometric data? To be processed via server-side and deleted immediately afterward....leaving only a code, passport country and year of birth.

Who will use it?  My belief is a fair number of politicians, journalists,  and intellectuals.

Trying to compare to numbers at F-Book or X?  No....even at the one-year point....I'll predict they have maybe 10-percent of the numbers.

Selling to the public?  Over  and over....the term 'verified' will be uttered.  Eventually, the EU will demand that F-Book and the rest....must also be verified.

Just four Political Observations Over Germany

 1.  I think that Merkel (without really planning it)....brought the CDU Party to a totally neutral point....where they are mostly a 'partner' of the SPD Party. The conservative 'label' is long gone.

Not a plus or minus....just something you have to contend with, at this point.

2. If you were to discount Chancellor Merz, and seek out some new 'filler'....with the broad requirement being financial/economic 'mechanic'....there's no one really existing in that category.

3.Personal opinion....a majority of Germans are eyeballing rich Germans....saying they got too much wealth, and we got to take more of that away.

After they accomplish this....if the economy still seems crappy, what's the next invention to resolve problems?

4. Within ten years....German healthcare will be so expensive....that the gov't arranges some procedures in India, Vietnam and Thailand....flying Germans there...for inexpensive care.

5 May 2026: Germany: 6 Things

 1. Leipzig, car drove through a shopping district....killing 2, wounding 3.

Guy is local boxer-trainer....known to police (meaning they've had encounters with him before)....German....had been recently released from a psychiatric hospital.

2.  Focus business article: "Managers and entrepreneurs have never been as disappointed with the political leadership in Berlin as they are after just one year of the Merz government. The bitter consequences of this inability to reform are already becoming apparent."

End of 2024....commerce core of Germany were desiring a true recovery out of the Covid-era....have yet to really see it.

3. New Mercosur agreement.....between EU and South American countries in effect.  Big shipment of Brazilian chicken ordered/delivered to Greece. Test done....EIGHTY-percent of first shipment....contaminated with Salmonella, 

4.  The wealth tax (Vermögenssteuer) is now being discussed in Germany.  Proposal to reintroduce an annual tax on high net personal wealth (assets minus liabilities, like real estate, stocks, cash, etc., but not on income).

I should say this...up until 1997....such a tax existed in old West Germany and unified Germany....Constitutional Court examined it, and said it was unfairly written.

Negatives?  Well...capital flight will obviously occur.  I will note that some folks are commenting that this idea  violates the coalition agreement that rules out tax increases (CDU would have to agree strongly with this).  Critics also point to past experiences and studies showing wealth taxes can be hard to administer and may reduce investment.

Likely passing?  I'd give it a 50-50 chance.  On the positive side....current stagnation would continue, and more German companies would be bought-out/owned by Chinese operations.  This would speed up declining public support of both CDU and SPD parties....leading to gains for  Greens/Linke and AfD.

5. BYD (China car company) in talks to buy a VW factory in Dresden.

6. Study done....on Germans having  'cash' to invest in retirement funds....roughly two out of three....lack such cash-flow.

5,000 Troop Removal Announcement

 The US is withdrawing 5,000 US troops from the US base in Vilseck, Bavaria (Upper Palatinate). 

This is reported around noon...via BILD.

The troops being withdrawn are from the Stryker Brigade. The brigade is stationed at Rose Barracks on the Grafenwöhr training area. 

What is not said....if the troops go back to the US, or are to be based in another European country.

It Just Got Tougher To Get Swedish Citizenship Status

 Sweden passed a couple of changes....to obtain citizenship:

1.  You need eight years of residence....without  'troubles' (meaning arrests)

2.  Show a income

3.  Cleared a point of not getting any social benefits

4.  Passed the Swedish language exam

5.  Finally....accomplished the exam on Swedish values and society

I looked at the list....these are not difficult issues.  On the income requirement?  Well...even if you were a bakery assistant/clerk, or a bus-driver....you'd show some  type of income and not be a poverty-status welfare guy.

How Might A Base Closure Collapse A Economic Bubble

 Back in the 1990s...I was stationed at Ramstein, and got into a conversation with a American retired GI....who had this interesting economic story.

In the region of Ramstein....some German developer had acquired a farm area that was 15 minutes driving from the east-gate and west-gate.  He had this idea of property development.....building houses which were attractive to Americans, and 'pricey' (meaning that he knew the max-housing pay-out for senior NCOs, and  most officers....which was about 2 times what a German would pay.

The development would end up as fifty homes....all upscale....this plotted around 1980-1982 timeframe. 

Local wealthy well-to-do Germans bought the homes, and were to be used as rentals...paying the German back more quickly, and thus getting the bank mortgage done ten years prior to 'normal'.  In your retirement years....this was a big-deal for added pension status.

The key failure?  Well....the developer had two 'books'....for the construction guys/tax authorities.  He brought in  non-Germans and non-EU folks....cash-basis, and avoided a lot of tax reporting.  He got into divorce trouble, and the wife reported.....which got him several years in prison.  

Yeah, the houses still sold, and throughout the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, 2020s....it's paid well.

If the base were to close....the money-maker would collapse.

Around Ramstein today? I'd  guess that twenty-odd developments and apartment buildings like this exist.  The number of businesses, cafes, restaurant that have 50-percent American GI?  A humble guess at more than a hundred....maybe going toward 150.  

Yeah, they've worked hard to build  up a economic bubble.

If it were to close?  In the first year alone....there's likely to be 2,000 insolvencies to be declared....with a minimum of 1,000 apartments/homes to be laying there vacant....some for five to ten years.

Political Chatter Over Saxony-Anhalt's Election (Early Sep 2026)

 6 Sep 2026 is the state election day for S-A.

Oddly....NO polling has been done by anyone since mid-March 2026.

How things looked from that poll?  AfD was leading  with 38-percent, and the CDU was sitting at 25-percent. Three other parties were over the 5-percent point, and marginally showing numbers.

I suspect things have changed a bit, and AfD presently sits near 42-percent....with the CDU  in a weakened position (probably barely at 22-percent).

Yeah, it's possible that the SPD falls below the 5-percent point, and that you end up with the BSW folks, the Greens, and Linke...accounting for 20-odd percent.

The non-seat-holding votes adding up to 15-plus percent?  That's the real 'fear'....that you'd have a fair number of votes....without representation and weakening any chance for the CDU to build a coalition

My General Prediction On The Trump Base Closures

 After pondering this for a while....I will offer three predictions:

1.  This first wave out of Germany (the 5,000)....I suspect will be Spang's 52nd Wing, the 10th AAMDC (Missile guys), and at least one additional Army unit....which I think they will all go to one Poland military base (consolidated).

2.   The Spain-Italy exit?  Just a crazy thought....I think this deal-making going on in Morocco....will lead to a US base....with most all of  the US assets in Spain and Italy going to one Moroccan military base (on the Atlantic).

3.  Finally, I suspect that Romania will end with some US assets (out of Germany).  

Pure speculation....but truthfully, Trump can say NATO survives on, but in other locations.  

4 May 2026: Germany: 3 Things

 1.  Trump indicates that closures of military bases in Italy and Spain will also occur.  He's not saying an end to NATO....which begs the question....where would he move operations?

2. All this increased US tariff stuff?  Well....this goes back to an agreement signed by the US and the EU in July of 2025....which was to be set to 15-percent, if the EU accomplished a number of vote-requirements.

Well....on their  'must-do' list....this was not that important....so the vote measures were never done.  Crapped upon the BMW, Mercedes and VW folks?  Yeah....they have a reason to be angry over the lack of attention.

3.  Via the Sunday night forum show (Caren Miosga - moderator)....Chancellor Merz gave a talk.  I watched about 25 minutes of it....he mostly appears with goals, but no real plan....he did threaten the SPD that he has been "very patient so far." 

Mixed message....some Germans say it sounds like the beginning of the end. Some might say that the CDU Party is simply another version of the SPD Party.

3 May 2026: Germany: 4 Things

1.  Timmy-the-whale-update:  Well....he finally exited the barge.  The story now?  Mostly over...I suspect.

2.  The US announcement of 5,000 troops leaving Germany?  Well....Trump updated this slightly....saying  'more' than 5,000 are going.

They aren't saying the 5,000 will return to the US.   My thoughts....the 5,000 will end up in Poland (probably Spang's 52nd Wing as a large part of the 5,000). 

3. Yesterday....Bavaria's Premier-President Söder....gave a talk...suggesting on the abolition of the electricity tax and the solidarity surcharge.

Yeah, it'll freak out the SPD folks.  But most Germans would readily agree on the electricity tax being curtailed/cut.

4.  Two guys were shot in the Neukölln district of Berlin last night....one fairly serious. Police investigating.

What Defeated Russia In Reality?

 I would offer five observations of what happened to cause Russian failure?

1. The Russian generals wanted to fight the 1960s version of their 'war-plan'.....tank-warfare.....Ukraine refused.

2.  NATO quietly gave intelligence 'value' to Ukraine....tons of it in fact.

3.  Drone-warfare became a bigger deal...than tanks.

4.  Russian mentality of minimum training....lessen  their impact on the field.

5.  Russian banking collapse/failures....became a bigger deal than the war itself, but Putin failed to grasp that.

What Caused The Scholz Coalition Collapse In 2024?

There were simply factors from day one....which made the threesome (SPD-Greens-FDP) disagreeable.

Near the end....the trigger-point was a months-long deadlock over the 2025 federal budget. There was going to be a shortfall of funds....which the SPD and Greens pushed for increased public investment and spending.  Lindner of the FDP (Finance Minister) said 'no'....going to the route of strict fiscal discipline. 

If the SPD or Greens had controlled the 'seat' of the Finance Ministry?  Well....they would have gotten the taxes increases, and the FDP would have forced into a corner...mostly grumbling.

How doe this 'frame' fit for the problems currently?  The SPD wants a bigger budget, and to reach it....they insist upon more taxation.  About half of the CDU-CSU crew....aren't that supportive of  the idea.

I'm not saying this is a carbon copy of the 2024 problem....but it has certain elements of that problem.

Why was Merz the CDU 'answer'?  Well....he was to be this economical smart guy....to get the economy back into turbo-mode.  So far, he's failed....which begs a lot of questions.

I will offer this observation...between the energy cost issue....the Russian-Ukraine issue....the import of cheap Chinese goods....and true cost of environmentally saving the Earth, the German economy is stagnant.  It doesn't matter who comes next to be Chancellor, the same issues exist.  

How I Think The Ukraine-Russia 'War' Ends

 Back three years ago....I thought that Putin would 'wake-up' and grasp his no-win situation....I was wrong.  In his epic-mindset....there has to be a surrender of Ukraine.

So the end in my mind....Putin at some point will have a stroke/heart-attack, and goes into hiding for several weeks.  The Putin-in-charge crew keeps the events engaged...but at some point....several of the generals figure out the stroke.

Over a 24-hour period....the Duma gets involved, and there's likely to be a massive shut-down of military operations.

Then....Russian troops just start packing up and leaving the front.  

Mass confusion of who is in charge follows...for several days.

By the 7th day of this new era....there is no military front, and every Russian soldier has left the region.

At this point,  I think it's entirely possible that a break-up occurs....Russia turning into five-to-ten states...maybe more. 

Ukraine...in effect.....wins.  

2 May 2026: Germany: 6 Things

 1.  Timmy-the-whale-update:  Well....they got to the North Sea drop-off point....opened the barge door, and encouraged Timmy to escape.

Timmy said 'no', and has remained in the barge.

They probably have food/supplies to linger for a week, but it doesn't appear that Timmy wants to leave his new 'friends'.  Timmy likes the attention and free-food deal....'freeloader-status'?

2. Chancellor Merz, and the coalition?

Well....lot of chatter has started up....people losing confidence....CDU-CSU losing numbers....heartburn going on.

So....four possible outcomes: (1) CDU-CSU might dissolve the coalition....going minority situation....with very poor outcomes likely. (2) Putting Merz up for a vote of confidence....hoping that the members of the CDU-CSU and SPD would agree....this being very risky. (3) Following a no-confidence vote....asking the members to elect a new Chancellor....without anyone in a clear 'win' category.  (4) Finally....call for a new election....with bad numbers anticipated for the SPD, and CDU-CSU.

Added to the crap?  Well...people are now focused on the Saxony-Anhalt election this fall....with the AfD nearing 40-percent (likely be top winner, but unable to form a gov't).  The retired President of Germany (Gauk) came out yesterday and said that the CDU (likely 2nd place) ought to take up a relationship with the Linke Party and form a gov't coalition for the state.  I would imagine half of all CDU-voters in the state would say 'what-the-hell', and avoid voting for the CDU....going to the AfD and giving them 50-plus percent.  His speech really didn't help matters.

There's a 'path' or two for Merz remaining, but this CDU-CSU and SPD relationship is in a spiral....mostly over tax growth and budget issues.  Oddly, it's almost the same causes for the last coalition to end.

3.  Trump says 5,000 US troops leaving Germany....but didn't say Army or Air Force, or installations.

4.  Jet-fuel shortages look more and more likely by June.

5.  'Social-cohesion' lacking....public poll near 70-percent...in Germany.

6.  If a no-confidence vote occurs, and a new federal election occurs....who do I see as CDU-CSU likely candidate?  My four picks are Markus Söder (CSU), Hendrik Wüst (CDU), and Thorsten Frei (CDU) and Julia Klöckner (CDU).

If you were grading on capabilities....Söder leads.  If you grade on public appeal...Julia Klöckner leads.  If you grade on insider-support (Merkel-wing)....Wüst leads.

From the SPD?  It won't matter....they won't get past 12-percent (both the Greens and Linke will be ahead of them).

In Case You Were Curious

Could Chancellor Merz be replaced by the CDU/CSU parties?

No. Internal party/group meetings have no legal power over the office of Chancellor.

The only thing the CSU/CDU could do?  Remove him as party/group leader, or pressure him to resign, they can't end his term as Chancellor. 

The minute that a new party/group 'boss' is talked about?  That will indicate an 'end' of some type over the next year. (My belief)

Salary Chatter

 This morning (Friday)....there was a Q-and-A for the Chancellor.

Some German gal noted herself having cancer, and that there's financial problems with health insurance (on that point....it's been a big deal in the past month)....then she focused her question on the Chancellor (Merz)....asking how they can talk up raising the salaries of the Bundestag members.

Well...Merz pushes back....saying: "At no point has it been considered to raise the salaries of the federal government."

I knew otherwise....but went to Grok/AI: "The monthly base remuneration for MPs is automatically adjusted once a year on 1 July, based on the nominal wage index (Nominallohnindex) published by the Federal Statistical Office. This mechanism has been in place since 2014 and was reconfirmed by the Bundestag in June 2025 for the current legislative period."

This July....the new salary will be 12,330 Euro (a month).

Yeah, it is a ridiculous amount, but living in Berlin has a huge cost factor.

Was the cancer lady correct?  Not entirely.

You see....the system is on 'automatic'....meaning there is no talk...no approval...no discussion.

Was the Chancellor correct?  Well...he was rather blunt, but said the truth.  The problem is....a lot of German folks have health issues, and think their misery/suffering....needs to be shared..

On  a PR-mess index?  1-to-10?  It's a '6' in my humble belief.

1 May 2026: Germany: 6 Things

1.  Timmy-the-whale-update:  The tugboat with the whale-barge is nearing the North Sea now....with plans to  exit Timmy within 24 hours.  Curiously,  with sound equipment....they've noted Timmy 'humming' whale-happiness tunes.

Added to the analysis....whale-experts (there appear to be hundreds if not thousands....suggest that Timmy will freak out if dumped into the North Sea.

2.  Focus headline:  Teacher shocked as she finds she has more money in retirement than she can spend.

Basic story.....she has a teacher pension (from the state) and a private pension that she put money into for twenty-plus years.  

This hype has been building up for six months in Germany....as probably 30-to-40 percent of Germans have a crappy pension going on.

3. Ended up watching Maybritt Illner public forum show last night on ZDF (public TV, channel 2). Yeah, it was 10:15 PM....fairly late. Topic?  Pension reform.

Five folks....hyping the pension chaos to the maximum.  More taxes is the only outcome that the group pushes across.

I will make the observation....if the current tax agenda comes....it probably only gives the retirees and government leadership three years of 'rest'...before the next reform, and the next new tax agenda is on display.  If you were a upcoming retiree...you'd best pack up and move to Thailand....to control your spending and enjoy your last twenty years without much tax chaos.

At the end of the show...I remarked to the German-wife....maybe the answer is to get kids (meaning age 11/12) out of school and working...paying into the pension-pot.  That set the wife off big-time...citing some 1903-law which mandates you can't hire anyone under age 13.  Then she hyped-up that you need to be educated until age 16.

4.  Reviewing German news on Iran....it'd be correct to say a dozen different 'head-of-state' figures exist, and it's impossible to draft a peace-treaty with any of them.

5. German gov't says it will start a 'food-reserve' in case of war.  Basically, they are going to have some warehouses....with canned-food....just sitting there.

6.  Finally, an observation over Trump's  talk of removing US troops from Germany.  There really wasn't that much negativity last night via the German news.  I expected more.

Quote

 "In social networks, anyone can anonymously say what they think and how they think. I find it regrettable."

-- Chancellor Merz (Today)

To be honest....you can stop any German on the street, or in a pub, or in a train....ask them what/how they think, and they will give you two minutes of blunt-chatter, and never once will you ask their name, address or political standing.

"Tacheles reden."

That's the German term....when the gal/guy has uttered something straightforward, blunt, and often pretty harsh.  There's no sugarcoating, no beating around the bush, pure raw honesty.

Chancellor Live Sunday Night?

 Yep....9:45, ARD, Channel 1, forum show.

Chancellor Merz will be quizzed.  Basically....he needs to sell the CDU-CSU-SPD program, and hopefully....Caren Miosga (the host) doesn't ask a lot of difficult questions, or trip him up.

I'll just say it...if he trips up or does some crazy talk.....polling over the next week will drop by 1-to-2 points.

Miosga?  Well.....she's fairly bright/clever, and I'd say she won't be wasting her 20-odd questions on dopey stuff.  

Yeah...make-or-break point.

The Rumor

 Someone picked up on CDU-CSU chatter this AM....that some elements are exploring the idea of a minority-government....meaning NO coalition.

Operationally possible?  You'd have to count on some type of support by the lesser parties...meaning that AfD probably figures into half of the proposals going on.

BS?  Basically....Chancellor Merz is on a negative course, and a fair number of CDU-supporters....aren't that pleased with the SPD concepts/drafts.

If  this were to fail....you'd see a fresh new election by spring of 2027 (my belief).  For some reason....I see it crazy enough that it might last more than two years.

Is it even something that the Chancellor would support?  Unknown.

Spiral Effect

 The purpose of the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition...after the failure/collapse of the SPD-FDP-Green coalition/government....was to anchor-up the economy....keep taxation growth under control, and stabilize jobs.

So...the results over  15 months:

Aldi Süd (Grocery) is cutting 1200 jobs.  

MAN is cutting 2300 jobs.  

Bosch is eliminating 13000 jobs.  

Voith is eliminating 2500 jobs.  

VW is eliminating 50,000 jobs.  

Daimler Truck is eliminating 5000 jobs.  

It's safe to say that whatever problem that triggered the SPD-FDP-Green coalition to fail....has continued on track into 2026.  

Whatever changes were supposed to occur with Chancellor Merz, and the CDU-'magic'....has yet to show itself.

''Dry' Frankfurt Train Station?

 Starting 1 May....the Frankfurt Hauptbahnhof (main station)....booze control  goes into effect.  NO consumption of alcohol within the boundary of the station.

You can still buy beer, wine, booze....but you can't drink it or walk around with a open-container within the train-station.

Reason?  Well....mostly goes to safety aspects....too many drunks.

In my hanging-around-Frankfurt years....I probably crossed through the station a thousand-odd times.  On a Friday or Saturday night....you'd observe dozens  of drunks.  Most were happy-types...not causing trouble.  The past decade?  Between drugs and booze....you see weekly police-reports about incidents.

This turning into a magnet for cop-trouble? Yeah.  

How Long Does It Take To Shut-Down A Base/Post?

 I was at Bitburg when the closure announcement was made.   Within two to three weeks....the exit plan was laid out.  

Various issues (like your assignment process, handling of vehicles/assets, etc) took several months to settle.

But I'd say that people were already exiting the base six months after the announcement.  At the 12th month....probably 50-percent of the base was 'closed'.

By the 18th month...it was mostly done.

So when this Presidential order comes....with the end-game plan laid out....you  can expect 'closure' by the end of 2027.  

The beginning-point for local German authorities?  Well...what to do with the turned-in property?  I would expect all of 2027 to be a debate-period....finding new purposes for the property.   

There's a lot of harsh realities around this....there's a property in eastern Wiesbaden....which is in it's 6th year of debate.....with locals in disagreement with the city planners over re-use.

30 Apr 2026: Germany: 5 Things

1.  Timmy-the-whale update: He was loaded onto a barge, and is presently entering the North Sea....where they will 'dump' him.

Looking at things....I'd say it's a 10-percent chance that Timmy will return within two weeks.

Theater-like show? RTL TV last night did a 30-minute 'show' over the Timmy business.  The minute they named him....it went overboard. 

2.  The Berlin Young Socialists (JUSOS.....the youth wing of the SPD Party) says that they want to abolish marriage. They apparently will submit a draft paper to this effect at the SPD state party conference.

 What they say?  “Marriage serves the chauvinistic, capitalist nation-state as an instrument for enforcing misogynistic, queerphobic, classist, and racist policies.” 

This meeting comes up in a week. 

I read through the material.....they seem to say that civil marriage creates "patriarchal power structures" and holds back people's freedom and self-determination "through its claim to permanence." 

People already in a marriage?  They'd get a 'free' ticket to continue......new folks would just register a partnership, or deregister when 'done'.

SPD adapting this?   NO.....I'm pretty convinced that more than 75-percent of the public thinks this is a joke. 

3.  President Trump says a exit-plan for troop reduction in Germany is on the table....being worked out.

All, or just a 25-percent cut?  No one says.

My bet?  Most all units are given a 12-to-18 month exit plan....keeping one single base/post (either Stuttgart,  Wiesbaden or Ramstein).  There....a EUCOM headquarters modified unit will exist....probably a 3-star with a staff of 2k to 3k personnel.  If something occurred to require US-based forces....that staff would lead the build-up/organization.  

German gov't grumbling?  Lets be honest....the Greens, SPD and Linke Party will be rather happy of the exit.  AfD will avoid grinning....but they also will be happy.  

The areas of the big loss?  Ramstein, Spangdahlem, and local Army locations....will see a economic decline....some more....some less.

4.  Just an odd thing you notice.  Soder (the CSU Party 'boss' and Premier-President of Bavaria).....gave his talk on the Monday night forum (very impressive)....and was cleanly shaven (he's had a rough beard for 2 years).

Yeah, I'd say that as popularity goes with Merz....Soder is now the leading guy to take over if Merz exits.

5. VW profits for 1st quarter of 2026.....down by 26-percent.

What Is The Upcoming German Sugar Tax About?

 Well....the draft for the current German "sugar tax" (or rather "Zuckerabgabe"/sugar levy) ......is about a planned levy on sugary soft drinks (like Pepsi, Coke, lemonade, iced tea), set to start in 2028. 

NOTE....it's not a broad tax on all sugar or sweets.  It's strictly about sweetened beverages. 

The government approved the plan as part of a bigger health insurance reform to fight obesity/diabetes.   Yes, by the way...that BIG hole in the in statutory health funds (GKV).....that revenue would fill it.

So you wonder about the amount?

The ballpark amount (what they say)....450 million Euro per year in additional revenue. 

The catch?  Some folks believe....that as you increase the price....30 to 32 cents per can/bottle....folks will ask for sugar-free versions....and lessen use over time.

Using their figures....a 12-pack of Coke (with sugar)...would have around 3.84 Euro in sugar-tax cost.

My belief?  Consumption levels will 'survive' the first 6 months....to the level where you realize that the 40-odd sodas per month cost you 15 Euro more. If you were on the poverty-level....that's 15 Euro you can't afford pay.

So the first folks to quit?  Poverty-and-welfare class.

But I'll make this prediction.....some people will flip to sugar-free drinks avoiding the tax....but having some chemistry-wise gal....describe the formula for adding sugar to the drink....to get the right taste.  

My own taste?  I've quit most sugar drinks since 2010....drinking a rare soda on the plane or in the airport.  The non-sugar sodas?  Crap....I've tried probably 15 different types since 2010....with all of them non-tasty. 

Forsa Poll Over Merz

 Forsa, the polling folks....asked the German public to grade Chancellor Merz...with the option....are you satisfied with him...yes or no.

15-percent said 'YES'.

83-percent said 'NO'.

Yeah, on a scale of bad news....1-to-10....it's probably a '7'.  

Why so many 'no'?  I'd say it goes to three issues.  First, there's nothing much impressive that the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition has done since day one.  Second, there's a bad karma landscape left from the SPD-FDP-Green coalition...remember that Scholz-guy?  Third, his chief selling point....was that he'd get the economy back in order....well, that has yet to really happen.

All of this setting up a chaotic period from this fall....to fall of 2027....with various state elections?  Yeah.

But you can say one thing positive....there's just not anyone from the CDU-CSU group to impress people as a replacement.  You also can say....no one from the SPD, or Greens...impresses the public as a replacement character.

So this remarkably bad news piece doesn't change much of anything?  Yeah.  That's the weird part of the story.

Current and Future Tobacco Tax in Germany?

 The current tobacco excise duty (Tabaksteuer)....since 1 January 2026....isaround 12.3 cents per cigarette.   

You can figure the ad valorem tax to around 19.84 percent of the retail selling price (Kleinverkaufspreis / KVP).  

Pack of smokes.....3.91 Euro of excise duty tax.

End of the story?  NO.  Then the VAT is figured.  VAT is currently at 19-percent, and by 2027....likely to extend to 21-perccent.

So...one  pack costs around 9.50 Euro (20 smokes).

More coming?

Well....there's a draft being pushed.  A pack....after this new add-on tax occurs....will be in the 10.50 Euro range.

The real end of the story?  My humble belief is that by the end of 2028....at least another 50 Euro-cents of tax will be added.

I personally don't care (I've never smoked)....but there's around 11-million Germans (age 18 to 90).....who smoke, and a fair number are at the poverty line.  Those unhappy folks might want to one day want a opposition political stance. Since all this tax-happy stuff is CDU-SPD related.....I wonder what opposition party this group would hang upon?

Any ideas?

N-TV/RTL Political Standing Poll

 Poll released today:

AfD: 27-percent

CDU-CSU: 22 percent

SPD: 12-percent

Linke: 12-percent

Greens: 15-percent

No one else above 5-percent.

Pace of things....by October....AfD is likely at 30-percent and CDU-CSU at 20-percent.  

I'll just say...both the CDU-folks and SPD-folks...need some type of recovery and up-swing on public sentiment.  

Are Germans Peeved Over Rich-Folks?

 Last night's ARD forum show ('Arena').....was a long discussion, with a politician, and two moderators....with forty-odd people to ask questions.

The jest of this 1-hour show?  Mostly a long talk over the public frustration with 'rich-people'.

If you follow German polls over the past decade....it's roughly 80-percent of society who feel that rich Germans are a 'problem'.  There's different grumblings, and hurt feelings over this.

The general fix-it solution?  I'd say a majority (say over 50-percent) feel you need to tax rich-people more.  

I've pondered this a lot, but come to a odd conclusion....if you are going to tax more....I'd like to hear how you intend to distribute the money.  To be honest.....you are taking in forty extra billion Euro....trying to pay public workers more, or offer more money to buy statues, or offering free dance classes for people, or building forty new submarines, or making train-travel free.....isn't that smart.

I'm also of the mind that if you taxed folks more....somewhere around age 60....maybe half of this rich-population might go and leave the country....taking their wealth with them (like the way California folks left).

The odd factor?  Generally,  if you make over 70k Euro a year....in Germany....you are considered 'rich'.  That heating technician next door....that makes 80k Euro?  Yeah....he's rich.  The baker with 8 employees....making 75k Euro a year.....yeah, he's rich.  The TV moderator making 105k Euro a year?  Yeah, he's rich.

From my American prospective?  Generally, I'd say $1-mil a year is the  point of being rich.  If you were a back-up catcher for the Dodgers....minimum wage for a year is $760k.....which I don't really consider to be ultra-rich.  

It's an odd dynamic....you want to get ahead in life, and folks are closely monitoring your appearance of wealth.....so you need to kinda pretend you are marginally making it....while taking in 90k Euro a year....something I'd call welfare-rich.

Three Odd Things I Noticed While In Berlin

 First, around 10 to 12 each morning...leaving the hotel....I noticed non-German kids walking the streets....obviously NOT in school.

Two or three here.....a couple of times each morning.

They aren't worried about skipping school, or missing classes.

Second, if I compared police-saturation in Berlin....to Mainz, Wiesbaden or Frankfurt.....there's probably five times the number of police on duty in Berlin.

I'm not saying there's a lot of crime....just a lot of police to suggest you are 'safe'.

Third, we stayed in two different hotels during the week.  The first was a loft-apartment situation....living room/kitchen on ground unit, and bedroom/bath up  a stairway on the upper floor.  It was a odd stairway....with steps that were about 5 cm (1.96  inches) higher than your normal step.

By the 2nd day at this hotel....my knee was in some pain from the extra 'rise' of each step.  

I asked my wife....she noted the same issue.  

Twenty-Year Financial Plan Idea?

I tried to make sense out of this. 

Bärbel Bas....SPD Party co-chair and Germany’s Federal Minister of Labor and Social Affairs....has hyped-up a long-term (roughly 20-year) industrial/economic strategy or plan. 

To be honest....if you did ask....there's really not ever been  a strategy/plan that went past four years.

How would you write a 20-year plan?  Unknown.  It'd likely have over 500 'pieces/parts', and be broken every four to six years.

Finding a PhD expert to openly support this idea?  That might be a challenge.

Getting the public support behind this?  I seriously doubt it.

How State Elections Coming Up Influence Break-Up Of The Coalition

 There are three state elections  remaining in 2026....all  in September (Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Berlin-City, and Sachsen-Anhalt).

If you asked on polling numbers....Sachsen-Anhalt and Mecklenburg....end up as AfD 'wins' but not enough to form a government....leading both to a number two 'winner'....building a enormously weakened coalition.

Berlin's election?   The CDU will win, but require two partners to form a coalition....making this a fairly weakened situation.

For 2027?  There are five state elections. I've looked at the numbers....they all end up as SPD or CDU 'wins'....but a growing problem is the AfD numbers in each (several approach the 15-to-20 percent level).  

You could easily have the CDU in a marginalized situation....where they can only partner with far-left 'associates' and the public sentiment goes 'south'.

If I were to predict chaos, and a early national election...it'd be in the spring of 2028...before the Bavaria/Hessen state elections (fall).

If you have three or more of the 2027 state elections where the AfD ranks near 25-percent...the Merz-era will likely conclude, and some early election would appeal to the various parties of the Bundestag.

Wild-card status?  BSW and the FDP  are both rebuilding status.....hoping for 5-plus-percent by the next federal election.

Why The German Army Expansion Is Likely To Fail

 Humble opinion:

Germans in general....bear a collective responsibility for the 'woes'/crimes of their 1930s/1940s generation.  Call  it 'inherited guilt' or fake guilt....but the system is rigged against them.

Add to this....from the 1950s  on....there's a mentality existing...."Never again war".  Taught in school and continually hyped.

There's a general culture that victory is 'bad', and can only lead to some type of guilt.

Several polls over the past year have led to numbers (50-percent and higher) of an attitude among young Germans.....serving the nation is not a good idea.

28 Apr 2026: Germany: 5 Things

 1. SPD Party came out yesterday....talking up a new cigarette tax 'bump'....going 20-percent up over present tax.

If you were a SPD voter and a smoker.....yeah, you probably are a bit peeved.

2. Last night, via ARD (Channel 1)....'Arena' came on....public forum show (live).  One guest...live audience to  ask questions.  CSU boss....Soder (Premier-President of Bavaria).

I'll just say that the two moderators attempted every angle possible to make him stumble, and he 'sliced' right through them.  Impressive 'bout'.

The one curious point dragged up......by German definitions....anyone making over 70,000 Euro a year...is considered 'RICH', and in the top category of taxation.  I'll point out....lot of heating technicians and AC-repair guys fit into this category, and they don't really see themselves as 'rich'.

3. Another Timmy-the-whale rescue operation today.  

4. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (known by 'AKK') is a retired German politician from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). She was the  hand-picked replacement for Merkel, but things fell apart in the year prior to the election and she declined the 'role'.

She came up in news yesterday.....she's set to meet with several Green Party folks, and see if any middle-ground can be achieved.  Best guess?  The CDU is probably starting to think early election probability is nearing 50-percent.  They'd like to swap out partners....getting the Greens instead of the SPD.

The one issue with this idea?  AfD is nearing 30-percent (presently at 28-percent).  If you add up CDU-CSU and Green winning odds....combined, they won't reach 50-plus percent.

5. WELT put up a story on Russia....Putin has 26 defensive missile batteries around his  personal residence....NONE protecting refineries  of Russia.

ARD DC Shooter Story

 Yesterday....around noon....ARD did a full up story of the attempted shooting of Trump....featuring the close-up pic of the guy involved...blurring his face.  Note, the shoot comes from the ground level....so you can see his body and head-hair.

Well....ARD came up at 8 PM....updating the story of the shooter.  

Yet this time....they blurred up his head-hair, with the face.

Yeah, the guy is black, and with the original shot (morning)....you could tell it was a black guy.  The evening telecast...same photo....the hair was unidentifiable. 

Just odd....but Germans notice BS like that. 

You can just imagine the intellectual journalists standing there...discussing the image, and how you should not identify the ethnic situation.   

INSA Polling

 Updated polling by INSA:

AfD: 28-percent

CDU-CSU: 24-percent

SPD: 14-percent

Greens: 12-percent

Linke: 11-percent

BSW or FDP: 3-percent each.

So, I'll just say it....at the point where AfD gets to around 32-percent....while they can't form a gov't.....the CDU-CSU is forced into a leadership role....forcing them to partner (coalition) with the SPD, AND Greens.

This would put the CDU-CSU into a ultimate weakened state....where half of the priorities are left-leaning, and dilute the CDU-CSU vote.

I would offer the opinion....two years of this weakened 'state' of existence would lead to a collapse, and the AfD in the next election would be near 45-percent....massively weakening the CDU-CSU even more.

27 Apr 2026: Germany: Four Things

 1.  WDR, the public regional TV network....did a survey.  Appears that two-thirds of Germans want strict public-funding/welfare....for migrants.  They don't say 'how-much'....but that the current system....is probably screwed-up.

2.  Timmy, the whale-drama...continues on.

3.  Berlin-City agenda at work....fair amount of city population wants city-center traffic seriously cut...question would make city-center travel difficult unless you ran by bus/subway or bike.

4.  BYD (Chinese car-maker)....to offer Denza-Z....1,000 HP E-car.  It would NOT be cheap as most of their cars are.

A Week of Berlin

 I wrapped up a week of vacation in Berlin yesterday. Ten observations:

1. BER (the airport).  Not to insult anyone....but it's a medium-sized airport (at best).  From the middle of town to the airport....with a tip....it's about 70 Euro.  

2.  You can make your way around town easily, with Google-Maps....giving you the subway/tram options.  

3.  There probably 1,000-plus Curry-Wurst stands in the city.  Quality-wise?  Don't go expecting but plain regular two-star Curry-Wursts.

4.  I probably ran across ten different protests/demonstrations over a 7-day period.....cops showed up and maintained order at each one.  Figure 20-to-30 police required each time.

5.  Between drunks, druggies, and homeless folks.....there's probably 10,000 roaming the city.

6.  Kinky-weird attire?  If you wanted fifty examples per day.....Berlin is the place to see it.  Fetish attire to the extreme?  Oh yeah.

7.  I felt 'safe' for the whole seven days.  Yeah, there were beggars on the subway system....but they aren't that pushy.

8.  'Wind-tunnels' to the extreme?  With the taller buildings around.....you notice this a good bit.

9.  The cat-temple coffee house....is an interesting place....where they were coffee, and cats roam the place....getting petted.  Worth seeing.

10.  For the first couple of days....I stayed in a loft-situation (two-floor room)....with a stairway.  The stairs to the bed-area....around two inches taller than a normal stairway step.  Oddly, your knees start to have issues in making the odd climb.  Nice hotel....except for this factor.  

It's Complicated

I've checked into a hotel in Berlin...I'll avoid the name...today.

So...the desk gal accompanied us (me and the wife)....over to the room.  Yeah, its a 425 euro a night deal.

I'll just say...theres like 50 different technical features, and in 2 minutes...i believe it was a mistake.

The AC unit...the tv...16 different LED lights, the electric windows...electric blinds...and so on.

I'm into tech crap...but i needed the orientation gal to give a 12 minute lecture...not the 2 minute there-you-go speech.

Falklands BS

 AM....I reviewed this UK-Argentia chatter.  Basically,  Trump made the comment that the Falkland Islands might be at a point of shifting to Argentina. 

My observations? 

First, the UK is awful damn weak militarily.....suggesting some type of reaction force...is a joke.

Then, I'm wondering how the whole of the UK see this?  Maybe 20 to 40 percent don't care?

Without US support?  Yeah, and they've been heading this way for a few years.

So...this might be kinda interesting. 

E20 Fuel?

Well, yeah....EU chatter has started up...they'd like to introduce a fuel above E10.

Where the bio product would come from?  I imagine sugar beets.

How much analysis has been done?  Well...no one says much.

Wouldn't shock me if they start taking E50 fuel.

3 Berlin Travel Tips

 1.  Use Google maps as much as possible...especially for subway or tram travel. 

2. The are probably 250 museums in the Greater-Berlin area....but 90 percent are crap.

3.  Homeless guys are friendly about it....seeing you are about to finish a beer...they will ask for the bottle for return value. 

How Bavarian King Ludwig II Died (My Belief)

 On the 13th of June....1886....King Ludwig II (age 40) of Bavaria died in a remarkable way. He was found drown in the shallowLake Starnberg area....with his psychiatrist, Dr. Bernhard von Gudden. 

What we can say....a week or two prior....he was 'deposed' (impeached in a way)....dumped-out of the king-job....over alleged insanity due to excessive spending on palaces like Neuschwanstein.

On the books....it was ruled suicide.  Oddly, they (the local doctors) did a autopsy and found NO water in his lungs.

The final hours 'story'?  At some point around 6 PM....on 13 June 1886....the king and his doctor....went for a walk along Lake Starnberg near Berg Castle.  Bodies are recovered 'later'.

Autopsy of the doctor?  Well...that's an odd thing.  He had injuries to the head (like he got 'whacked').  Walking cane? No one says that. But there's a 2nd injury....strangulation (chocked).

Odd factor?  Well....this entire area (in the water).....is mostly knee-deep to waist-deep. 

Conspiracy thriller?  Yeah.

Was he crazy?  I've read two books on the guy and would readily agree....he had zero grasp of spending or living a fragile lifestyle.

Finding an acceptable ending....for the king and doctor?  No.  I can believe that the king whacked the doctor on the trail....knocking him into the lake, and then feeling sorry for the doctor....jumping in and the doctor chocks the King....with both of them dying in knee-deep water (the doctor more-so dead from a concussion).

The value of the King today?  Well....there's tons of money off tourism....due to the  King's crazy nature of building castles.

Old German Reservists?

My German wife started a conversation over this impending German rule...allowing recruitment of reservists up to age 70.

Would I join (age 67 today)?  I pondered this.

First, boot-camp would to be non-rigorous....no push ups.  

Second,  I'd like a good mattress...no 1970s cot.

Third, this time around....I'd like to be tank guy...maybe even a driver.

Fourth, absolutely no marching.

Fifth, camping out for a weekend is no problem....but no 14 day long exercises.

Sixth, I'd prefer no indoctrination BS.  Don't spend six hours on a 8 minute subject. Shoot, reload...repeat.

Finally....don't bother issuing fancy parade uniforms...I'm  a weekend warrior or war guy, period.

Fuel Chatter

Around 1 May....German oil purchases from Kazakhstan will halt...due to Putin.

What it amounts to?  Seventeen percent of jet fuel, gas and diesel.

Control by Russia?  The pipe is theirs.

What the German say?  They have about 3 weeks of existing fuel around, and 90 days of a oil reserve.

End?  It's possible that Venezuela and the US step in, and deliver oil....but it'd be June before you start to see evidence. 

I'll just say it...May and June might be a bit chaotic.   Also, you wonder about fuel for the US army and requirements for Ramstein  and Spang.

The Sex Bill

I noted this AM....the German Green Party has offered up a draft bill....more or less....'no-means-no'.  If passed...the parties upon mee...have to agree on sex, or there is no sex.

I pondered over this.

It would seem to me...there has to be paperwork involved...a official form...2 pages.  First, it has to specify the 2, or 3, or4 individuals involved.

Then it'd have specify time involved....like a 6 minute quickie, a 16 minute regular,  or a 40 minute epic saga.

Then you'd have specify oral, regular, anal, bondage, or weird stuff.

It ought to be an App...so the government has a copy.

The AfD folks?  They'd probably be against it...saying too much information. 

The chief problem i see....data will start to show over age forty are mostly quickie folks.

Two Things

First, BKA...the federal police....says around 75 ISIS fighters are figured to be in Germany...hiding.  The war ended, and they quietly came back to where they were originally.  The law says...you can't come back...without jail time.

Working?  Well...I wonder about that. Maybe you have a uncle who let's you work...paying you under the table.

A threat?  After you arrived in Syria and realized this war BS was crap....your options were limited.  I think most would prefer to forget the experience. 

Second thing....the SPD party added a draft proposal...if you are on welfare...you are eligible for the 1k Euro tax free bonus.  Who would be paying you this?  They don't say...but it won't be the state or federal apparatus. 

My wife says some welfare folks have part time work...that maybe their boss would rig up extra pay....on top of the table.

Yeah, About That Tax-Free Bonus

 The one thing I've noticed over the past week...lot of Germans went to their bosses, and asked about this 1,000 Euro tax-free 'bonus' deal that the Chancellor  worked up between the CDU-CSU and SPD. The vast majority of bosses came back, and said the bonus from them is not going to happen....mostly because of the  economic woes going on.

Needless to say....whoever dreamed up this tax-free bonus concept....arranged for probably 75-percent-or-more of Germans to be fairly negative of the work-climate. 

I don't think they really understood things well enough....on how you can screw up morale within a company.

Various comments on social  media are laying there....openly harsh and critical....of the companies themselves, and the Merz coalition.

The other odd thing?  Well....public workers (city/state)....they kinda  want  the deal, and there's virtually no villeage/city with ample cash to hand out 1,000 Euro per employee.   

Just kinda funny how they met and created a four-star mess out of nothing.

Bundestag Walk

Spent 3 hours on Berlin Bundestag walk today...some advice:

1. Make your reservation 60 days out.

2. Approach from the US embassy side.

3. Be at the visitor center 20 min prior to your time.

4. An elevator will take you to the dome, however...there is a 500 ft circular walk to the top. If you aren't physically in good shape....don't go.

5. No toilet around. 

6. Hydrate prior to arrival.

7. Part of the walk is outdoors....dress appropriately. 

8. If you intend to walk from the bahnhof...give yourself 40 min.

Former CDU Boss - Accident

 Armin Laschet, chancellor candidate from 4 years ago for the CDU....had a weekend accident with a E-scotter...breaking his shoulder.

I brought this up with wife...she says this precisely why I can't have one.

Five Humble Thoughts

 1.  I'm one of those folks who do believe that German public TV should exist, and  folks should pay 'something' (maybe not 18-Euro a month).

Reasoning?  AI basically says that between 1 and 3 percent of society is intellectual, and since commercial TV can't give them what they desire....public TV (like ARD or ZDF) fills the gap.

The other 97-percent probably aren't happy with my suggestion....but they get tens of billions from the intellectual political folks to cover the 18-Euro a month issue.

2.  Back on Tuesday evening of last week....ZDF (public TV, Channel 2) ran a 45-min critical piece of Jeffrey Epstein.

My wife (German in nature) watched intently....I gave 20-percent of my attention.  She's absolutely convinced of his evil/demonic ways.  

She asked my thoughts....I admitted over the past five years....I'd put 200-plus hours into the Epstein 'saga'.  What she got for 45 minutes....was basically 1-percent of the whole story.  I told her Jeffrey was demonic....1,000-times over.

Yeah, I think she was freaked-out.

3. A week now after the Hungary's  election...Magyar is convincing a lot of folks....not much is set to change.

Shocker?  

4.  Last week....I read some German social commentary (German gal, 20s, Hamburg)....who basically said: "99-percent of German women here are women by gender, but male by mannerisms, behavior, dress sense, and mindset."

I didn't say much of anything.  In my mind, I thought....half of these women are probably trans, and I shouldn't stare.  

Bigger things than this to worry about.

5.  UFOs could come down and land in Frankfurt....walk around the river area for six hours, and I suspect 90-percent of German society would still be skeptical that aliens exist.

Cellphone Chatter

Starting in 2027....by EU mandate....smartphones sold in the EU will be required to have user-replaceable batteries designed for greater durability and more charging cycles. 

More?  Manufacturers must also ensure spare parts and repair manuals for at least 10 years after a model is released

My take? Most companies have a 2 year cycle....expecting you to upgrade.  If the EU push occurs....prices will go 30 to 50 percent higher.  Buying outside of the EU?  I'd bet some do.

Just Curious

Chancellor Merz came up yesterday saying...the normal pension is built to give you basic retirement income...nothing more than that.  You probably shouldn't plan on retirement trips to Thailand or expensive crap.

My German wife noted this 30 years ago, and started putting extra toward a private investment deal.

Germans peeved?  I'd say 30 percent...mostly those in the age 30 to 40 group...are unhappy over the chatter.

Berlin DDR Museum Today

Spent 3 hours walking through the place today.   Some advice...spend the hour prior hydrating...no safe. There's several watering holes about a block away.  Also....no resting spots much inside.   Put 2 to 3 hours on the interior walk.  Vast amount of detail on old East Germany.

Did Russia Indicate Germany Might Have A Problem In Selling Ukraine Drones?

 Well...yeah, back on the 15th....there was a pretty blunt statement said...basically suggesting Germany might be targeted.

My humble view?  There's probably a dozen German companies making military-style drones, and selling them.  They might be targeted in some fashion.

Scaring the crap out of the population? Yeah....a bomb or two...leading back to Russia would get noticed real quick.

Reservists

National level of German Army talking about recruiting reservists up to age 70.

I sat and pondered over the deal...maybe if this were bootcamp-lite....around age 60....getting some 300 Euro as a extra pension deal...it'd be worth considering. But out of a thousand Grtmans over age 50...I doubt if you'd find ten willing to sign up.

Welfare Landscape

 This past week....Focus went out and asked the German gov't....just how many folks are on 'citizen's income'....welfare.

So the number comes to  5.2-million....out of 84-million.

But they asked....how many are non-German.  It comes to around 47-percent....mostly to Iraqis, Syrians and Ukrainians.  

The magic number.... 21.7-billion Euro....to non-Germans.

Whether the Chancellor and the coalition really grasp this....they don't really have 20-odd billion Euro to throw around.

This providing more voter conflict?  Probably so.  

Good EU Demographics News

 The EU has been surveying demographic data, and come to a conclusion.

Good news....EU-wide population is projected to collapse by 50-plus million by 2100.

Birth-rate collapse.

The top leadership didn't say much.  I'm guessing they are huddled up and talking about some regulation....forcing you in some fashion to have more kids.  

My three suggestions?

1.  Put a 25-Euro tax on individual condoms or birth-control....unless you have already two kids.

2.  Have some type of monthly pay deal for women....say 750 Euro 'pay' per month to have kids.

3.  Start a science project to enable men to have kids, without the women involved.

The news that they didn't discuss?  Well...what happens by 2200?  Another 175-million drop in population?

(Note, I can be sarcastic at times)

Labor Productivity Chatter

 Scale of relationship between US and Germany....on labor productivity....from unification day....to now.

They were at one time...probably for three decades....even.  Then by 2000....the change started.

Over-regulation is the big-factor?  I think at the top level of company executives for Germany....probably 99-percent agree.

The odd factor?  Lets be honest....the Bush, Obama, Trump-1 era, and Biden....the US kept adding regulations as well....it's just that Germany doubled down on top of what the US was doing.

The Five Polling Organizations

 Germany has five organizations that I give a thumbs up to....being reliable on polls: INSA, YouGov, FG Wahlen, Forsa, and Allensbach.

This AM....lot of  chatter over weekend polling results.  Three of the five show AfD two to three points ahead of the CDU-CSU.  Allensbach shows CDU-CSU one point ahead  of the AfD.

SPD numbers on all three....crap (down in the 12-point range).

So I'll make three observations:

1.  Lefty-voters are split three ways: Linke, SPD, and Greens.  To a much lesser degree...even BSW (4-points) is pulling lefty-voters.

2.   Merz and his CDU-CSU crew....are marginally delivering any legislation that the public appreciates.

3.  For roughly three years after Covid ended as a big-deal....the SPD-Green-FDP  coalition marginally delivered, and the economy was simply 'floating'....the public felt Merz and the crew could deliver.  So here we are 16 months into the Merz era, and no real change.  

So I'll just say it....nothing about AfD policy really changes the economic trends.  The only slight suggestion is that if they did pursue a exit-policy on migrants....out of the 47-percent of non-Germans  on the state-welfare program....maybe half of them would be cut off the social-welfare fund. Beyond that...what Germans are seeking....AfD can't really provide that kind of change.

19 Apr 2026: Germany: Three Things

 1.  Emergency meeting  for tomorrow (Monday).....Federal Economics Minister Katherina Reiche....Federal Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil.

Meeting players?  German airlines, suppliers, and associations.

Concern?  Jet-fuel problems within four to six weeks.

Some people discussing  worst case  scenario.....lot of mid-May flights probably to be curtailed.

2. Josie Rath....wrote an interesting summary for WELT....concerning how things in Germany are now be politicized to a maximum degree.  Worth a read.

From hobbies, to clothing styles....there's now  a creation machine to make something 'rightist' or 'leftish'.

I have to admit...if you walked around Germany in the 1990s....there was nothing like this in existence.  Past ten to fifteen years....it's created out of thin air.  It feels like a on-going 24-hour lecture.

3.  The wife and I ended up at the Frankfurt Flughafen last night....early turn-in of bags (24 hours prior to the flight).  

I was pretty shocked...20 min drive over....easy park (4 Euro)....walked in....NO line....got the boarding pass after swiping my passport....bag 'tag' pumped out....put the bags through the system....took a total of 20 min to walk and  accomplish the process.  At 7 PM....weren't that many people in the airport.

Saved about an hour if I'd waited till this afternoon to drag the bags over.

Will be in Berlin for a couple of days (if you don't see updates, that's the reason). 

EU Jet Fuel Chatter

 Late yesterday....EU politicians started up a talk....to essentially trim back on jet-fuel  purchases from the Middle East,  and ramp up more purchase situations from the US.

Amount?  They are talking of a 75-percent cut on Mid-East fuel contracts.

Where this leads onto?  I'd suggest a 2026 trend where US oil companies benefit greatly.  Long-term?  They will eventually go back to the old trend....but I'd  suggest that the US companies for the next 12-to-18 months benefit.

This shortage chatter?  There might be a 30-to-60 day period where some flights are curtailed....until the supply gets back to a norm.

EU Age App?

If you weren't aware....the EU has some type of regulation they will push....requiring everyone to have a Age Verification app on their cellphone, computer, or tab.

It'll verify in some fashion....your age (from federal data they collect already).

So some folks you'd associate with hacking....got to test it this week.

Yeah....it was hacked with little to no effort.

From what I see....when you set it up, the app asks you to create a PIN. 

This PIN isn't actually tied to the identity data it's supposed to protect. 

So the hacker can delete a couple of entries from a file on the phone/tab....restart the app....create a new PIN, and the app happily hands over the original user's verified identity credentials. 

There's other issues, but just this alone....makes it a problem.

I'm not saying this is the end of the idea....but whoever developed it....probably has another six months of development....before they can force it upon people.

Just Odd

 ZDF, German public TV...Channel 2.....based out of Mainz....is apparently looking for young adults for a new documentary piece....who have some type of  strained relationship....with their parents, because they are voting for AfD.

I guess in this understanding.....if you were CDU-associated, but your parents were Linke or Green Party....you need not apply.

From what I see on social media....it got a lot of criticism....for searching for such  participants.

The fact that a fair amount of the 'support' for AfD comes from the 18-to-30 year-olds?  Well...it's best not to bring up this factor.

If I were guessing....they will find forty-odd participants....but at least five of them will be 'faking-it'.  

IEA Chatter

 I sat in the last hour....reviewing a AM interview....the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, gave a talk...to say....Europe still has enough jet fuel for "maybe six weeks or so".

BS? Well....it's mixed.

Germany for example....has yet to turn on its 90-day oil reserve supply.  Tankers on their way to Germany to deliver?  Yeah....in about 12 days....the last oil tanker will unload....then a two to four week supply of fuel will exist.  As that concludes....then the oil reserve stock will kick on.

Other countries? I'd say about 90-percent of Europe is in a similar situation.

So what will happen?  It's not really Europe in a 'pain'.....it's destinations that will worry folks. Going to India or Asia....you probably will see cancellations in four to six weeks.   Japan?  They've gotten US oil tankers arranged, and they might not have any problems.

The fact that 20-million Germans have some kind of airline reservation for spring, summer and fall at risk?  Yeah.  Adding to the risk...you might fly into Turkey with zero risk, and wake up two weeks later....where your airport to leave for home....has a fuel shortage.

Massive oil tanker trail  going from South Africa toward the US Gulf and Venezuela?  Yeah....I've seen the maps....probably well over 200 tankers making a path.

16 April 2026: Germany: 5 Things

 1.  New national poll done for German public opinion (if an election were today)....CDU-CSU at 23-percent (2nd place, falling 3 points), with AfD  leading at 27-percent.

Both FDP and BSW moving up a notch, to 4-percent each.  SPD lingering at 13-percent. Greens: 14-percent.  Linke at 10-percent.

You add CDU-CSU and SPD numbers up....comes to 36-percent of public polling (pretty crappy).  

2. Tax-Payers Association...heavy negative criticism of the CDU-CSU-SPD 1,000 Euro bonus-tax-free deal.  

3.  Starting in summer of 2027...new EU rule.....10,000 Euro in cash is max for a cash situation (if you buying something).  You have to electronically 'send' the money if over 10k. New German rule  for 2027.....if you are putting  down 3,000 Euro or more....you need to provide an ID for the transaction, and the data has to be kept by the store.  

4. Almost 1.9 million German over the age of 65....are currently employed and working.  

5.  Stern-TV (the show) from RTL-network last night....featured a 20-odd minute update of 'Timmy' (the sickly whale on the German coast).  They must have interviewed at least a dozen animal experts...giving each their humble thoughts on Timmy's illness or likely approaching death.

Probably 10-percent of German society are closely following the whales declining health.

Are There Three Factions Of Iranian Leadership?

If it hasn't been made clear.....lacking legit political parties.....Iran is basically run by three groups.

Hardline crew.....Islamic Republic....the absolute and consumed conservatives. (osulgarayan).  

This group wants strict ideological loyalty to velayat-e faqih (guardianship of the jurist).  Yes, they are anti-West, and their power leans toward the Supreme Leader, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). 

Then there's the reformists and moderates (the eslahtalaban).  This group wants civil liberties, economic changes, stable currency, survival of the banking structure, and mostly a moderate relationship with the west.  

Most of the general public wants this group to 'win'.

Finally....the third group....the Supreme Leader and his Mullah-crew.  If you haven't understood this....this group plays off both group number one and number two.

The Mullahs and hardline folks....having no understanding of the oil business, it's relationship to the economy?  Well....that's about 99-percent of the current crisis.

Four Humble Thoughts

 1.  From Hungary....Orban (on his way out) and Magyar (on his way in)....had connections between the two for almost two decades. They were never 'enemies'.

If you ask me....based on commentary by Magyar....the election almost seems like a rigged-up deal where you simply exchanged red-pill-one with red-pill-two...getting the same result,  but feeling good that some pro-EU guy is there.  Three months down the line....you (the Hungarian-voter) will wake up from this dream, and realize Magyar is very much identical to Orban (except 70 pounds lighter).

2. The beginning of the end for the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition?  It'll be the day that a survey is done and reveals that half of German society wants the Scholz coalition back (SPD-Green-FDP).

3.  I suspect if you sat down with most Germans and asked them to rank the tempo-limit (bringing the autobahn speed down to 120/130 kph), and among problems to 'FIX'....it won't be even in the top 700 issues.  Potholes....might even rank above tempo limit.

4.  Sometimes....late at night....I'm channel-flipping for German TV options, and  Frau W's show is on.

Basically, she's a fortune-teller....with cards, and Germans call in....asking if they should do something really 'stupid'.  Live-show....you (the caller) are paying something like 99-cents (per minute), and she lays out these cards to tell you the best option to take.

I'll typically watch for ten minutes....thinking 'Ingrid' (the caller) ought to dump the boyfriend, or trade in the 'junker', or tell-off the boss, or just seek better advice.

Lately, I've had this feeling that Chancellor Merz should call, and seek advice.

Faking It

I sat and read through a BBC piece of investigative journalism.   So....they were told....there's some Brit lawyers....helping migrants building a case to stay in the UK...by pretending to be gay.

I get the feeling that they thought....this was mostly made-up.  But in the end....as they talked to the migrants....yeah, it was a true statement...legal advisers come in....lay out the 'rules' of being gay, and migrant acts in this way.

Last year...there was a incident in Germany....where the Auslander-office (folks that handle migrants in Germany)....asked about the amount of 'gayness' that the guy had (nationality was not given), and the migrant got all hyped-up/angry about the suggestion that he was gay.

How many fake gays exist in the UK?  Unknown.  I doubt if anyone really wants to collect or analyze such data.

Bad ethical decision by the lawyers? Well.....they just want the applicant to get a visa....they don't care how it occurs.

The odd part?  Well....some Brit gay guy sat down and probably wrote the text and  behavior  thing....how to fake the gayness.  Maybe he didn't really grasp how far this would  go.

Is There A Pending Fuel Problem For Germany?

 I spent an hour yesterday reading over this suggestion.

First, there's roughly a 90-day reserve sitting there...yet to be turned  on.

Second, there are several oil freighters heading toward Germany....figure their arrival in three weeks. Once they dock....unless things rapidly change in the  Gulf region....there's a brewing problem (you can assess it to develop around the end of September).

But on the positive side?  Well...new oil-tanker traffic is heading toward Venezuela and the US Gulf region. 

The idea of expanding bio fuels (E10) to maybe E20?  I've seen that idea pitched.

So I'm not really believing there's much of a shortage of fuel for Germany.  Now....if the stress-folks at the SPD-Green agenda can make you believe in a shortage....getting you hyped-up to buy a E-car....well....that's different.

15 Apr 2026: Germany: 10 Things

 1.  RTL poll: AfD at 26-percent.  CDU-CSU falls 2 points to 24 percent.

Linke at 11-percent.  Greens at 15-percent.  SPD at 12-percent.  FDP lingering at 4-percent.

FDP leadership change?  There's talk,  and a new guy likely to be into position.  My guess....it'll be enough to bring  FDP by the end of 2026....up to 7-percent,  but the votes are going to come from the CDU-CSU landscape.

2.  INSA did a poll on 'trust'....with the public asked about the Chancellor (Merz)....he rates near 20-percent.

3.  In case you were wondering....that 'ALL' gas stations have the same pricing on fuel...NO.

I have a fuel App and over the Wiesbaden area....there's probably a 4-cent difference  between the 30-odd stations around the city for E-10 fuel.  The no-name shops are definitely at the lower end of the pricing.

4.  Ban coming for robo-mowers and night-time mowing....by German federal law?

Well...there's a lot of talk by the animal rights people...suggesting it's not right.  Personally, if you make the case for no-night-time mowing mowing.....the same save-the-animals logic should exist for day-time mowing as well.

In the 12-plus years I've mowed this German property yard....on one single occasion....I had a injured bird of some type.  I halted mowing for the day, and he was gone by the next.

5. Forsa/RTL-TV gave a survey....who do you trust (party-wise)?

CDU-CSU: 15-percent.  AfD at 14-percent.   SPD at 4-percent.

Top winner?  NO PARTY at 52-percent.

I sat and pondered this for 20 minutes....it's a weird question, and unusual 'winner'.   It means that the public is losing confidence with the system to work.  Who would blame?  Mostly the parties...but ARD/ZDF (public TV) has done a good bit to encourage folks to have faith......then delivered crushing 'blows' to the achievements actually delivered.  

6. At this past weekend's CDU-CSU-SPD meeting....odd topic came up.  CDU wants to abolish May-Day (federal holiday in Germany).  SPD basically basically 'hell-no'.

I personally think that Merz said it as a 'joke', to get SPD folks hyped-up and grumbling.

7. Will public workers (city/state employees) get the 1,000 Euro 'bonus' deal (tax-free)?  

Well....a CDU mayor indicated in pretty strong language...NO.  

There's going to be a lot of grumbling by the end of 2026 about this non-delivery of a bonus (tax-free). 

8.  Late yesterday....rumor-chatter started up that the EU intends to lower electrical prices across the 'land'.  How?  It wasn't really laid out.  I would assume they'd mandate some tax lowering dynamic. 

On the books....there are two 'taxes': VAT (sales tax) at 19-percent, and a Stromsteuer (2-cents per kWh).

However, there are four 'fees' also built into the system: Konzessionsabgabe (concession levy to municipalities): around 1.32–2.39 Euro cents/kWh. Then there is KWKG-Umlage (Combined Heat & Power levy): 0.446 cents/kWh....which supports efficient CHP plants. Then there's Aufschlag für besondere Netznutzung (§ 19 StromNEV): 1.559 cents/kWh....a special grid-usage surcharge.  Finally, there's Offshore-Netzumlage (offshore grid levy): 0.94 cents/kWh....which covers offshore wind connection costs.

Looking at this 'mess'....the EU must be bluffing folks.  If they inserted a 'cut' into any part of the grid cost....the German system would freak out because of lack of cash-flow to their pet-projects.

9.  DFB....the German soccer league....is starting up their own TV 'channel' (streaming-video)....5.99 Euro a month.

If you weren't getting enough soccer via  commercial TV or public TV....well, there's this. 

10.  The German term 'Milchmädchenrechnung' came up for me yesterday.

I spent about 15 minutes trying to grasp the term.

Translation?  Milk-Maid's calculation.

So....about 300 years ago...in Switzerland...in some fictional book....the writer wrote a paragraph that involved a rather naive gal, who had a side-business of some type, and had a profit plan that seemed to make sense on paper, but when it was applied....it failed.  Reasoning?  The young lady really didn't understand the complexity of commerce and business.

Some German yesterday uttered this...referring to the CDU-CSU-SPD folks.  

Three Odd Things I Noted

 1. Over the past year or two...if you were a resident of Berlin (the city)....you probably noticed increased trash on the street, and around the parks.

This AM...the CDU-led  city gov't came up and said: Berlin will start to reward tourists in the future....if they pick-up trash. You'd get vouchers.

They are also hiring  trrash  investigators....to walk the streets and find dumped-crap....putting into effect...higher fines.

I paused over this.  If I had 7 days off, and settled for a Berlin trip...I'm NOT about to waste one day of it...picking up trash.  My wife (being German) will go ballistic if I even suggest a day on collecting trash.

2  Just a lot of chatter over the past week or  two....Germans remembering 1973.....when the gas crisis hit Germany, and autobahns on weekends were deserted.

The odds of this in  April or May...near zero.

Odds in July or August? I'd say we are approaching a 50-percent point for a 1973-type crisis level.

3.  So talk of change has started to occur with German health insurance.

If you didn't know....there's around 90-plus health plans in existence.

The CDU has started a talk....to  dissolve the bulk of these....with the goal  being in the end....ten.

Grumbling?  Oh yeah....fair amount of negative talk has started up.

A change requiring the SPD to agree?  Yes....and they might not be that agreeable.

Were they that different?  Some were regional....some had limited situations for rehab (physical or drug or alcohol)....some required weight loss for knee or hip operations.

The chief problem....cost is escalating, and the state/federal apparatus....needs some tool to curtail rising costs.

Humble Thoughts Over Iran

 Four observations:

1.  Production-wise, they still drill and pump oil....HOWEVER, it gets to a depot area near the coast, and the tanks are rapidly filling, with almost nothing getting loaded on oil-tankers.

From my reading yesterday....I asked Grok (AI)...how much time was left before the tanks are all full....roughly 13 days was the answer.

So at the end of April...drilling stops.

Revenue from oil?   ZERO for the most part.

Iran had nothing much to make income off of.....so there's a cash-flow issue brewing.

2. Hyper-inflation on food?  Feb numbers suggest 47-percent.

3.  Jet-fuel rationing going on?  Yeah....mostly from the Gulf region is where this commentary comes from.

4.  Airport strikes going on...workers aren't showing up.  Some indications that only gov't ordered flights now operating.

Quiet-Quitting Chatter

  I noted yesterday.....some German using in social media.....the term 'quiet quitting'.

The meaning?  It's usually when people have no more interest in their profession...their job, or their political position.

These are people who screw up  constantly....make routine daily mistakes...their good/bad decision level is 50-50....seem lacking in motivation, and they can't seem to be truly reliable.

The  term is usually for commercial operations....this guy meant it for the CDU-CSU-SPD folks.

I'm not saying  he's right, or wrong.....just that you normally meant it to be used for sports teams, or commercial work (maybe for charity work too).

My worry (if I were a German)....if a majority of German voters believe in this concept, and see the coalition as 'quiet quitting'.....they might get the idea that voting AfD resolves this issue.

14 Apr 2026: Germany: 5 Things

 1.  The logistics industry of Germany...is heavy on criticism that the 'help' that the gov't is going to provide (17-cents off the energy tax for two months)....does not start until 1 May.  The 'stall' as some indicate....will push some trucking companies toward bankruptcy.

They may have a point, but the current gov't is not really built to handle problems such as this gas price crisis.  Once you have twenty or thirty trucking companies fail....then they will convene a new crisis team, and spend a weekend talking over a new problem and design more regulations to fit a situation.

2.  My feelings over the Hungary election?

Orbin out....Magyar in.....right-wing-XL guy out....right-wing-lite guy in.

If you look at the new parliament.....only three parties got seats....far-right-extreme, far-right-XL....and far-right-moderate.

All this tough anti-Russia talk....probably forgotten in six months.  There might be a couple of Russian  journalists asked to leave...but beyond, mostly fake chatter.

The one issue with Magyar?  He's prone to stupid mistakes (that past cocaine issue, the dog episode, and his ex-wife's stories).  If you asked me on betting odds....I'd say within two years.....his party has to force him to exit.

3.  BASF CEO says for the remainder of 2026....financial chaos for Germany....mostly over Iran situation.   

4.  Focus says:  Putin's mega-villa....now protected by 27 different air defense systems.  

5. WELT poll: Majority of Germans now support a temp speed limit on autobahns....120 kph.  Note: they used the term 'temporary'.  

My belief....within two months, some text will exist for a new law....but will be worded to be a two-year period.   During that period....they will collect data to show lesser accidents (at least on autobahns), and work to convince people to keep the limit.

Cash Bucket

 In case you were wondering....I asked Grok (AI)....how much money does Germany (the nation) ship out...past the EU....as 'gift-money' for groups/nations.

Roughly 25-billion Euro aa year.

This topic has come up....as the German  poverty-class has begun to ask questions.  These are the type that neither the CDU or SPD....can answer.

Can 1,400 Euro A Month Pension Money Work?

 Well....this 1,400 number gets thrown around a good bit.  It's what a average German apprentice kid....entering around age 16....will get around age 67.  Figure baker, plumber, heating tech, etc.

Germans talk about this...in a critical way.

If you were smart...around age 30, and invested a bit....working extra hours....you might achieve a investment fund to additionally supplement your 1,400 Euro....with anything from 300 Euro to 1,000 Euro.

Lot of differing numbers, but around 50-to-62 percent supplement 'something' toward the pension situation.

So roughly 40-percent of society do nothing. 

Can you survive purely off 1,400 Euro?   If you resize your living situation...living in a more rural area....yeah.  You'd probably dump the car....drink less booze....and avoid vacations.

If you were marginally paid over the forty-odd year period, and only making 900-Euro a month?  You'd be screwed, and probably getting some welfare funding.

End-point?  Well....you see this a good bit....where a German reaches age 50, and suddenly realizes the reality...shaking their head.

Explaining The Gas Tax 'Relief'

 As of 9 AM today, the 'relief' for German gas prices has been released.

If you didn't know....there are two taxes applied to German gas prices. One is the VAT/sales tax, and the other is the energy tax.

The relief?  From the energy tax (NOT the VAT)....17-Euro-Cents will be cut....for two months. 

So if you bought a liter yesterday for 2.10 Euro....then the new price would be1.93 Euro (still hefty....about 20-cents above the norm).  

What happens in six-to-eight weeks?  Well...if the 'war' is still screwing up the pricing....more talks will occur, and I would imagine it'll go for a second two-month period.

Still to be grumbling?  Oh yeah.  Who will get the blame for the grumbling? Mostly Merz, the CDU, and the SPD.

Why Can't German Coalitions 'Work'?

 Wel....for a long time (after the war)....you had three basic parties....left-of-center SPD, the right-of-center CDU-CSU, and the FDP (usually anti-tax and cut budget folks).  The FDP served to be the 'partner'....getting a cabinet post or two, and forcing compromises.

As the Green Party arrived....the SPD lost some voters, and started to be a partner.  As the Linke Party arrived....more SPD voters switched.

For about 20 years....the SPD and CDU-CSU folks have generally lost voters...to the point that combined....they can't get 50-percent of the seats to hold a coalition.

From 2025....the election results were enough....that the CDU-CSU invited the SPD in for talks. To get a partnership....you end diluting your 'promises' and end up as much a neutral organization....which your voters shake their heads and  wonder why they really need to vote.

 

Odd Deal

 Announced this AM....German gov't will offer a 'deal'.

Your company can offer you a 1,000 Euro bonus....tax-free. Anything over the 1,000 Euro....has taxes attached.

So my question....out of a hundred average companies in Germany...how many will offer the 'deal'? Twenty?  Fifty?

Some will be smart about this....deducting a 1,000 Euro from your check over 12 months, and presenting it to you....as a 'gift'...meaning tax-free status.

I would not be complaining but I doubt if you get more than forty-percent of Germany's work-force getting the deal unless they sneak it to you in some fashion (cutting the monthly check).