31 Aug 2024 Four German News Stories

 1.  I ended up at a major German furniture shop yesterday.  Normally, there would be 200 cars in the parking lot and a fair amount of 'action' going on.  There were around 70 cars there and very low-key 'interest' going on. A lot more Germans being careful about spending money at present.

2.  Between Koln and Marburg...lies the town of Siegen.  Yesterday....with a fest going on in the city....a bus situation developed.  Some German woman (suspected under the influence of drug/alcohol)....pulled a knife out and three people were critically wounded, with two more slightly wounded.

32-year old gal will be questioned, and charged-up.  

3.    Yesterday....plane left Germany for Afghanistan....deportation of 28 convicted Afghan guys.  One of them....a 31-year old guy who had raped a girl in Illerkirchberg.  

What the guy's lawyer said after the plane left?  He suspects the guy will find a way to return.  On the odds of all 28 deportees returning?  I might take that bet.

4.  ISIS made a public statement yesterday over the German ban on knives....saying in the future....their 'players' would carry hammers  (meaning?  you'd have to ban hammers next).

The Thing About Polling

 I sat and watched a short piece off ARD's (public TV in Germany, Channel 1)....Tagesschau.  Topic?  ZAPP went and did a poll on German public concern of the news media stories concerning the Middle East....to find that almost 50-percent of Germans don't believe much of what they are told.

ZAPP?  It's a NDR (public TV) media magazine....focused mostly off the NW section of Germany.

So  you'd ask....is this poll strictly focused on the Gaza 'war'?  Yeah.  

They drilled down into it, finding that  one-third of this distrust group said the problem was the slant was too-much pro-Israel chatter.  Around five-percent said it was too much pro-Palestinian.  Almost a quarter refused to discuss the lack of trust period.

I  suspect if you asked on more stories.....you'd find similar numbers.  For example, if you asked about trust in media stories  on  climate change, tax reform,  or the decline in the school system of Germany...distrust might be at the 30 to 50 percent point as well.

This distrust worrying the public TV news people?  Well....if half the audience doesn't believe in what you are putting out....then you failed in some sort of way.

More polling in the future?  Yeah, I'd bet on it.

30 Aug 2024: Ten German News Stories

 1.  In regional news....Frankfurt city council has appointed what they call a night-council...trying to stir up the city for night-life....after 10 PM.  Group is limited on powers but given a mandate to present ideas to re-invent the city.

What I'll say....late 1970s to late 1980s...Frankfurt had a ton of late-night action going on.  Much less so since Covid.

2.  Federal chatter going on about knife bans?  They are writing the law....all train stations and fest-operations....will be protective-zone (period).  Cops will have full power to frisk anyone for any reason.

Other chatter....if you have any crimes on your sheet during asylum applications....that will end the process.

Other chatter....if you came from a EU state to Germany, for asylum.....they won't process your paperwork, and support will be marginal (a bunk, 'bread', and soap).

3.  German inflation rate falls to lowest in several years.  I'm not saying things are fine....just that there is a stability situation going on.

4.  It may be BS, but the CIA told the Austrians of this planned attack on the Swift concert (3 weeks ago)....the arrested group had planned on deaths being in the 'tens of thousands'.  The CIA says a lot of stuff.....some true....some BS.

5.  German shop.....Scotch and Soda.....known for upscale fashion trends....financially shut down.  

6.  Jan Hofer, who did the newscast for ARD 8 PM news for a decade or two....moved over to RTL in the last 2 years....did his last news piece yesterday.  What I always found interesting....he refused to give his true age when working at ARD.  HR probably didn't push it in the 1990s.  

7.  Top song in Germany at present....pop song....'Belly Legs Butt'.  Play on working out and staying fit.

8.  'Icon-League' to start up in Germany....indoor soccer.  Would combine some older pro guys, some promi folks and regular folks.  Toni Kroos is behind it....retired in the last month from pro-league soccer.

9.  Those who might remember the Capri-Sonne drink.....they've tested various ways of handling the EU ban on plastic straws.  What they've found....paper straws with the little drink  pouch DON'T work.  They are approaching the EU to get some kind of waiver.  I don't expect them to bend much.  

10.  This Brit-Germany meeting that has implications for a trade-deal....if you go and read through the material....it's not a real trade deal.  

Yeah, it opens doors to talks and improved trade probably in two years....but it was mostly a strange meeting where the Brits got a open door for the first time since Merkel left.

If you were asking me on a open-back-up-the-EU-to-the-UK? Yeah, that's probably on the 'menu'.

Two Curious Things

 1.  State election in Thuringia occurs this Sunday.  AfD is likely to win...but will be unable to form a state coalition gov't.

For four years, Thuringia state has run without a coalition (yeah, it is pretty odd and unusual).

If you asked me about a possible gov't after this election?  I'd say the CDU will form a gov't with the BSW Party (provided they can reach 50-percent).  If they can't reach it....there is zero chance that they will include the AfD folks or the Linke Party.

2.  Administrative Court in Koln says that 5G phone 'bid' back a couple of years ago (run by a CDU political figure) was done in a wrong-way.

Unlawful influence is said to have occurred in the 2019 bid.

29 August 2024: Four German News Stories

 1.  A reminder came up yesterday....that when talking about particular Germans and there are certain words acceptable to  use (like she is right-wing extremist, or he is radicalized), then there are phrases/words that you can't utter via social media or in public (like he is f*t, or she is a d*mwit).  

I'll just say that some German wrote the f*t word description of a certain politician, and the police came to visit the person....likely to be a court appearance/fine required in the end.

2.  Last night via ZDF (public TV, Channel 2)....very late...ran the Markus Lanz show.  It's live and typically a low key public forum (I'd rank it down like #5 on significance).  Topic last night?  Solingen knife attack.  

They had the SPD General Secretary Kevin Kühnert to be interviewed.  I will say this about Kühnert....he has some wit and is sharp on occasions.  

So the moderator finally got to his 'beef'....speaking of the “helplessness of the constitutional state”....implying how the SPD-led coalition is not able resolve this problem.

Kühnert went on the offensive....saying the coalition could fix this mess.  

If you asked me on the feelings of the bulk of Germans....they agree with Lanz's analysis.....the state is pretty helpless.

3.  Another knife attack....this one in Recklinghausen (NW Germany).  Cops got called to some apartment building....guy acting nuts and threatening people with a knife.  Cops told him to drop the knife....he refused.  They shot him after a warning....dead.

No ethnic status given, and it appears this guy was a resident of the apartment building. 

The one obvious note I will say here....once the German police give you the 'warning'....that could be it, and they've been trained to fire with a limited number of shots.....meaning?  It won't be like an American setting where the cop fires 11 rounds....the German cop might only fire one single round (that's  all that was required).

4.  One possible change to what the German gov't provides for refugees is being discussed....a harsh cut in the 'allowance'.

What the SPD-coalition is talking about.....'bread, bed, soap' option.  If you came in from a EU country originally and trying to claim asylum status in Germany (they have the best benefits of  any EU country).....you would get just marginal help from German society.

The problem I see here....almost ALL of refugees in Germany have this situation.  If they were to do this....it'd become a major shock to the 'system'.  Guessing this passing? I'd give it only a 30-percent  chance.

Humble View

 The Bundestag opens back up shortly (after summer vacation) and the number one topic (because of media exposure)....will be the migrant topic, the Solingen knife assault, and fixing the deportee problem.

So I watched public TV last night (ZDF)....and a graphic popped up for about 8 seconds....it's the number of deportees at the beginning of 2024...waiting to be sent out.  Number?  In the 75,000 range.  So far in 2024?  Well....they say around 5,000 to 6,000.  Even with 'good-luck'....they probably won't get past the 10,000 point for the year.

Blame?  It  goes across various discussion points.  

Pressure on the Bundestag to react?  Yeah.  But internal pressure within the system is likely to hinder things.

So I'm going to  predict the outcome over the next 60 days:

1.  Weapon-Zones will be established in all train-stations, onboard all trains, and cities will be given the green-light to expand into shopping districts.  Meaning?  You can send active police patrols out....demanding an ID and a frisk.  It also means that if you encounter someone with a knife during the frisk....they get a court-invite....and a likely assessment of 5,000 Euro.

2.  I think some handcuff routine will start with failed asylum folks, where the paperwork is delivered to you, with a patrol of four guys to drag you to a 'compound'....where you will remain until the plane leaves.  Even if it takes  three years.....you probably will be staying in custody.

3.   There's going to be a discussion....if you fail the asylum application...state-funding for you probably will end within a month or two after the failed paperwork is given to you.  

Beyond these things....I don't see much else to be accomplished.  

More knife assaults to occur?  Yeah, I'd bet on that trend.

Which party is most affected in a negative way?  Well....the Green Party. I'd also list the SPD....simply because of ineffective leadership presently.

All of this fear...affecting late-night activities?  No one has suggested that yet, but if you were around Frankfurt after 10 PM on a Friday night....yeah, I  might be wondering about the safety factor.

A final note...99-percent of the knife incidents are male-related (I've only seen one female noted in the past year).  Public forums don't discuss this statistic much.  

28 August 2024: Four German News Stories

 1.  New knife incident in the Moers area (far north, near Duisburg).  Police were called to a well-to-do neighborhood.....some guy running around and 2 knives in his hands.  They arrive....confront the guy....he comes toward them aggressively....police fire....guy dead.

Info so far?  Limited.  They say he is a German....beyond that nothing.  

Update: One odd thing talked about this morning.....this 'guy' set fire to his 'ex's' house in this area....back in late May....then exited Germany.  Where he went?  Unknown.  What led him back?  Unknown.  So there was a police report on him in May of this year.  A bit strange....I admit.

2.  German news saying that Putin is sending 30,000 Russian troops to the Kursk region.  Truth to the matter?  Unknown.  We are almost 2 weeks into the Kursk episode now.

3.  Statement by Baerbock (Foreign Minister, Greens).  Talking over the Thuringia state election....something to the effect if ONLY the CDU, AfD, and BSW 'win', there's trouble ahead.

Her point, it is now likely that the Greens and SPD may not achieve 5-percent of the vote....so they have zero seats in the state assembly.

She may have a point, but neither the SPD or Green agenda seems to be selling well in the state.

4.  Bounty set-up in my region for killing wild boars (100 Euro for each you bring in).....because of the fever-business.   

It's a Hessen thing only....at this point.  

27 August 2024: Four German News Stories

 1.  Interesting quote from a Focus interview with terror expert Rolf Tophoven....worth a read of the article.

Quote: “The dark figure of unknown perpetrators is now the greatest danger for Germany.”

It is the unknown, after the Solingen knife attack.....that draws a great deal of anxiety upon the general public of Germany.  I'll admit for five or six years now....I find  myself in public situations on the streets of Germany, and I'm in some active behavior of surveilling things around me.

2.  The one odd thing I noticed off the Solingen attack....ARD (Channel 1 of public TV) went to text-updates on the network, and had updates after 9 PM....which is a bit unusual.  

3.  Unusual FDP suggestion on migrants (will be hard to sell to Greens).  Idea is....if you fail asylum and the deportation order is given, all gov't benefits end, period.  

No housing, no food money, nothing.  

I don't see the Green Party (as the coalition partner) agreeing to this idea.  Selling it to the CDU/CSU, the SPD....pretty easy if you ask me.

4.  German citizen arrested on  entering Russia.  Crime?  He was carrying gold bars (13 of them).  Will be curious if confiscation is 100-percent.

26 August 2024: Four German News Stories

 1.  The only thing that I can add to the Solingen knife story this AM?  ISIS came up with a video of the guy...making some kind of allegiance to the organization.  I probably should add....protesters showed up at the refugee 'center' in Solingen last night (not a big group but obvious).

This guy getting recently radicalized?  Yeah, it looks like in the past couple of months....he went this way.

2.  The Sunday night public forum show on ARD (public TV, Channel 1)?  The Caren Miosga Show?  Well....the topic was this knife incident in Solingen.  I guess the chief trend out of the hour-long show....the general agreement that the guy wasn't on anyone's radar, and the event was totally unexpected.

I'd say at the 30-minute point....the chat forum had wrapped up.  There's just not much you can say....to change public  perception.

3.  Odd comment by Lars Klingbell (SPD Party 'boss')....“They (referring to the Islamic radicals) hate Germany because everyone can live freely here."

If you add up all the reasons that people leave their home-country....they start with some expectation that it's better elsewhere, but they never list these out and ask why is it better in x-country than the home-country.  

4.  Starting Tuesday....4-day strike by Discover Airways (tourist airline mostly out of Frankfurt).  If you had a package tour....probably a high chance you were flying with this group.

This Odd Story About The Syrian Knife Guy In Solingen

 So....this Syrian guy was noted originally in the EU toward the end of 2022....in Bulgaria.

Now....this matters.

Once he appeared in Germany and asked for asylum.....the Germans noted his paperwork, and by EU rules.....the first 'safe' country he arrives in...that's where he has to do the paperwork.

Well...the Germans decided after a review (early 2023)....he has to be deported to Bulgaria, and they agreed to take him back.

Shocking stuff at this point....the guy up and disappears in Germany.

When this 6-month period to be deported expired (Aug 2023)....he suddenly shows back up in Germany.

Now oddly enough....by the rules....he's offered protection (not to be sent to Bulgaria).

What's he done since August of 2023?  Unknown.  Residence during the period? Solingen.  

How this will be perceived by regular Germans?  He should have been deported to Bulgaria, period.  Then the question will be....how many other folks fit into this situation....having disappeared for six months.

Where'd he go for the six months?  I'm  guessing folks will ask but no politician will dare answer the question.  

How Does A Weapon-Zone And Knife Ban Work?

 Well....Wiesbaden was actually the first German city to attempt this (around five years ago).  So the way it goes....you define the weapon (it's not just pistols....it includes batons, knives and anything that could result in death).

You define a 'zone'....going from location 'X' to location 'Y'.  Then you put signs up....saying from 7 PM to 5 AM....cops can encounter you in the zone, demand an ID, then frisk you (without any exception).

Do the cops patrol every night?  No.  There might be only two or three patrols over an entire week....for 3 hours each.

If you are caught in this situation with a weapon?  After the frisk...the weapon is confiscated, and you get a summons to the city court house (say two to four weeks in the future).  The judge will hear your details....read the report....then issue a fine (max of 5,000 Euro).  The fine slant?  They tend to lean toward the big number....you probably won't walk out with a simple 50 Euro fine.

If you argue about the ID and frisking?  That gets the police crew to ask for back-up and could mean a bigger meeting with the judge....that you were denying the police their 'right'.  In simple terms.....you'd be asking for more than a fine....you'd be asking for jail-time.

If you had drugs on you?  Well....that gets into more of a judge's meeting and potentially more jail-time.

So this becomes an odd tool...where you have to train yourself to accept a frisk in a public situation.  

A normal German?  You could ask a 80-year old German if they've ever been frisked in their life.....with 98-percent saying 'no'.  For me....other than at airport situations....I've never been frisked in my life. 

Would frisking solve the knife issue?  No, but it'd start to make you wonder about fines and the stupidity of carrying a knife around in public.  For most folks....5,000 Euro lost...is a big deal. 

Just a humble explanation.

25 August 2024: Four German News Stories

 1.  Solingen knife assault?  26-year-old Syrian who'd arrived in late 2022 for asylum....turned himself in.  

My humble guess?  Judge will probably ask for a medical/mental review, and find he has some type of schizophrenia or was drugged-up (remember little of the event).  

Three dead and five wounded from the incident.

I'll just say....chatter  has bumped up a notch.....security and safety is uttered a lot right now.

2.  Soccer coach legend....Christoph Daum....has finally passed on (cancer).  Well known in the 1980s....also had a serious cocaine habit.

3.  Some climate study done.  That goal of carving off 1.5-percent of temperature?  Now considered impossible.   Just looking over the story and general chatter...just reaching plain old 1-degree....might not even be achievable.  Probably some new goal of .5-degree.

4.   550-million Euro goes to the two churches of Germany (from the church tax business).  Tens of thousands of Germans each year....quit the churches.  So debate has started up....this burden of the 16 states to pay money out of their pot of funds....is growing.  The 550 number will likely flip to half that amount (my humble view).  Renovation projects will be what gets hit the most.  

Car Talk

 My German wife and I got into a discussion (some  might refer to it as a argument).  The topic?  Her 2007 Audi TT.....has a light issue.  It comes and goes.  The regular non-Audi mechanic....finally said....he won't  touch the issue.  As he noted....it's the cabling for the rear of the car, and the 'harness' needs a replacement.

The meaning here?  It means a trip to the Audi shop (across the river...into Mainz).

For the wife, ever thinking of saving a 'nickel'....it means a likely bill of 700 Euro.

I've taken the car over three times in the past decade...mostly for serious issues, and you never walk out without having spent 2,000 Euro.  

Here's the thing about the 2007 Audi TT.....for a car of this age....there's been very few repairs.  For the first ten years.....other than brake pads and light bulbs....no problems ever occurred.  

As a kid....my dad was a Ford guy, and we probably took at least one of the vehicles (always a Ford) over for an entire day of work.   Other than a water cooler and some 20-year old couch to sit upon.....there was nothing 'inviting' at a Ford service shop.

The Audi service  center?  They offer you a coffee or tea upon arrival.  The place is air-conditioned.  The furniture is new stuff....out of some 5-star shop.  The people you see....almost all looking like male/female models....dressed in fancy clothing. You feel like you are in a movie studio production center.

Selling you on a Audi-image.....while the mechanics work on your car?  Yeah.  In a way, I guess you don't feel quiet as bad about the 2,000 Euro bill in the end.  

How Legit Is This Knife Worry In Germany?

 There are three German prospectives to this.

First, throughout the 1980s and 1990s.....I just don't recall hearing of any knife-threats or knife-assaults.  Maybe they occurred and the police simply didn't report it.

Second, if you live in a town of 10,000 or less....there's zero reports of incidents like this.  It's mostly in towns like Bremen, Frankfurt, Berlin, Dusseldorf, and such (the mega-cities of Germany).  I'd say it's part of urbanization.

Third, the 'cure'?  Well....by the summer of 2025, with the national election coming up....I expect a national knife ban situation to occur, with frisks being the norm for five to ten years.  If I were a German policeman...I'd probably worry about this strategy and how many problems I run into....asking people to kindly accept a frisk.

All of this safety worry leading to more security requirements?  Well....I see it in my village for the yearly spring fest.  There's probably three times the normal amount of police man-power...compared to 20 years ago.  I see it in Wiesbaden...in the shopping district.

Train stations more protected?  Yeah....that's another obvious sign.  Even on trains....I'd say one out of four trains running.....have some Bahn-security crew walking through....decked out in military-garb and armed.  That's something that never existed before 2000.

So yeah, it is legit as a worry, and I don't think it'll be easily going away.

24 August 2024: Three German News Stories

 1. German driving law has a rule that says....you will NOT drive with a mask or covering over your face, period.

This  got challenged in the state of the Pfalz.   Muslim lady said it was unfair.....she wanted to wear the facial covering 'burka' when driving.  

This went all the way to the state court.  They said 'no'....the  rule is there for a safety reason.

2.  Town of Solingen (near Dusseldorf) is celebrating it's 650th year of existence.  Knifing occurred....three dead and five wounded.  

Cops have a basic description and hunting for the suspect.  They don't sound that hopeful in finding the guy. 

3.  Fair amount of German reporting from Kursk, Russia.....locals are extremely negative/harsh...on Putin.  Those that stayed...expected a offensive to retake their land.  

Blood Feud Murder Story

 Earlier in the week, I essayed a piece over a murder in the Frankfurt train station....Turkish guy (27) got off a train, and a mid-50's Turk came up....shot the young guy in the head three times (dead).  So the cops quickly cornered the shooter and have been trying to figure out motive.

What the cops say this morning.

Long-running blood feud...leading back to Turkey.

So....two Kurdish families at the heart of the matter.

Back in 2016....a guy was shot dead in Turkey.....with the 27-year old dead guy in Frankfurt was the brother of the 2016 dead guy.  Family connections led 2016 brother to a local business man as the culprit for arranging the original shooting.

So this 27-year old guy (Frankfurt arrival person) went and killed the businessman believed to be at the heart of the trouble.

The businessman dead in Turkey?  His family demands revenge.  That 27-year old flew out of Turkey...to hide out in Germany.  Businessman's family figures out the schedule, and has a member of their family waiting to kill him in Frankfurt.

Odds of another killing....in the line of this blood feud?  Well....it's conceivable.  

Making a good plot for a movie?  Yeah, I would imagine that.  I could see some Tatort (Sunday night cop show) writer getting hyped-up to write this.  

23 August 2024: Three German News Stories

 1.  One odd factor in this Kursk, Russia invasion region?  Well...the Kursk  region  is kinda like the 'Iowa' of Russia....ton of fruit and vegetables grown locally.  If the Ukrainians could stage and hold the region for six months....it'd put a massive amount of problems in bringing groceries to the urbanized zones of Russia.

2.  There's a small trend building up in Germany...where 'fake' policemen set up traffic stops and assess cash fines.  I was kinda surprised upon hearing the story.

They are apparently using the 'follow-me' blinking lights, to put you into a position where they suggest a fine is in order.  

3.  There's to be a new regional 'index' on German car insurance prices.

Yeah, you might discover that living in Saxony, Hessen or Pfalz....with your car....might be 30-percent more expensive in the coming year.  

My Assessment Of The Kursk Invasion, Russia And The Future

 Four things:

1.  Hard to believe,  but this Kursk area is the 'Iowa'  of Russia, with ton of  fruit and vegetable production.  The Ukrainians walked in....during what would be the fall harvest....the local production level is screwed for September/October.  

If Russia doesn't act or recover by the end of harvest...there's to be a 'loss' for the consumer market (in the urbanization centers of Russia).   

If Russia doesn't act by April to recover and 'own' the territory?  Well....there's to be no crop production for 2025.

In simple talk....grocery shelves would start to be missing items.

2.  If this were early to mid-2022?  Well...they'd have tanks and personnel to mount a offensive and recover.

But at this point, neither the trained personnel, and the tank inventory isn't there.

So there's not that much of a offensive you can mount....unless you disengage from SE Ukraine, and send 50,000 troops north, with a fair amount of assets.

They could do this, but the question is.....do they want to take the step of weakening one front to make this happen.

3.  Whoever dreamed up this idea......probably has spent a lot of time in a US military-history situation....studying the American Civil War.  They knew it was a weak front, with marginally trained conscripts.

4.  If this hasn't been fixed by spring of 2025....economically, Russia goes to the next level down.  Putin needs some type of 'victory' to write his last chapter of leadership, and so far.....has gotten next to nothing.  

22 August 2024: Six German News Stories

 1.  I mentioned yesterday....that odd shooting at the Frankfurt train station.  So more.

This train had just pulled in and some  younger guy had gotten off.....54-year old guy from Baden-Wurttemberg walked up....fired 3 rounds into the victim's head (fairly personal I assume).

Victim status?  Dead...but cops also note....he has no permanent address in Germany....telling you very little about his nationality.

One interesting part of the story....the victim fell to the ground after the first shot to the head....the shooter then fired two more rounds to finish him off.  I'd say it was awful 'personal' between the two, and they probably knew each other.

This AM....Focus noted that both shooter and victim were of Turkish background.

A lot of harsh commentary for the safety aspects around the Bahnhof....some saying it's not a place to linger (move through and leave as quickly as you arrived).

2.  Discover Airways (does a lot of vacation package trips)...has a strike action going on.  

3.  Regionally here in my Frankfurt/Darmstadt area....authorities are building a 50 km long fence along Autobahn 45.....to keep Swine Flu wild boars on one side of the autobahn.  

Just shaking my head....it would not take much to push the fence 'up' and sneak through.

4.  German journalists observing the Kursk invasion by Ukraine....say up to 3,000 Russian troops are 'stuck' in a trap....currently unable to escape (all 3 bridges blown up).

5.  Via Focus.....there's an instruction that came down from the Lower Saxony State Reception Authority....given to the Federal Police at Düsseldorf Airport.

It basically says: “If the person concerned refuses to board the plane or tries to resist deportation in another way (active/passive resistance), he or she can be released and return to the accommodation assigned to him or her independently.” 

Then the instruction  says something to the effect that you can send the deportation documents to the local responsible immigration authority.  

Basically, if you were on the deportee list and taken to the airport....at least in this state....just put up a fight, and the deportation ends (fails).

Yeah, it really got a few police bitter over the wording.

6.  Some political chatter by the Green Party yesterday.....words to the effect in 2025....they were open to a coalition under the CDU/CSU Party....under certain conditions.  

People are getting prepared for this new era after the fall 2025 election. Polls are indicating if people could get an early election....they'd 'appreciate' it more than waiting.

21 August 2024: Ten German News Stories

 1.  MDR (public TV for Saxony region) had a political chat session with all the parties in the running for state election shortly.  Top public priorities?  Lack of teachers in the state and public safety.

I think you could go across the 16 states and if you asked for the top three issues on people's mind....public safety will come up in each of the states  (at least presently).

2.  More public 'doom' chatter gong on with the coalition gov't of the SPD-Greens-FDP.  Some Germans think that aearly election could still be called (instead of waiting for the fall of 2025).  Key issue drawing to this idea?  Budget problems for 2025.

3.  Beer story.

This is a complicated tax and beer story. 

Back on Monday, this Dutch guy walked into a regional court case in Darmstadt and laid out what he'd done with 24-million beer bottles (1-liter each). With a group of associates....he'd faked a delivery of a fairly large amount of beer....from France to Germany. 

For six months in 2021....there was a paper trail showing 24 million liters of beer moving from France to Germany.....in the amount of 1,000 deliveries.

But here's the catch.

There's a EU law which says beer is taxed....on final country.  So Germany taxes beer at a cheaper rate.....than France.

In this scheme....the paper  shows movement, but the beer stayed in France...sold there, while the German tax was the 'gimmick'.

How much did he make?  Authorities say 11-million Euro or the invisible beer.

I paused over reading the facts of the case.  In my mind....I doubt that this was his first episode of dealing with invisible beer from France.

But then I came to this odd thing....I can't think of a single French beer....that Germans like to consume.  Just on this fact....the idea of 1,000 deliveries of French beer....I would have been suspicious of the whole story.

4.  Polling done....vast majority of Germans want some kind of knife law put into effect, with more frisking action.

5.  Just a odd Russia story....Putin is offering temporary residence visas to certain foreigners who wish to leave crapped-up western countries where fuc*ed-up situations have occurred.

How many Germans might go for the deal?  I would imagine fewer than a hundred.  

Putin getting worried about a decline in population numbers?  Well....yeah, there is that angle.

6.  From that Munich knife episode I mentioned yesterday....the police now say they went through several efforts to get her to put the knife down (regular kitchen knife should be noted here).  As she moved toward them in a threatening manner....four shots fired.  

Past police record with the lady?  Drug offenses (what the police say).

7.  Cops investigating a shooting in Frankfurt's train station from last night.  Victim dead....shooter caught....occurring around 9 PM.  Generally, the threat around the station (up to this point) was knife-related.  

8.  One last heat-wave predicted for this summer....in my village for Saturday....predicted temp of 29 C (84 F).  After that.....it'll start to slip to fall temperature averages.  Most moderate summer ever....at least in my village.

9.  RyanAir is the ultra-discount airline serving Germany (figure around 1.5-million seats per year).  So the air travel tax is going to slip back up in the coming year.  Ryan has told the German gov't unless you halt this escalation....we will cut travel into Germany.  

Here's the key factor....around 7-percent of German vacation travelers....use Ryan.  So this would be a big deal.

How Ryan might drop flights?  Well....they'd go into bordering areas (France, Netherlands, Poland, Austria) and stage to-Germany flights without landing in Germany.  

10.  Curious cost-survey done on EU countries.  As much as Germans whine about the cost of food.....of 28 member states....Germans have the lower cost of food (being absolutely at the bottom of pricing).

20 August 2024: Seven German News Stories

 1.  Last week, I told the story of a German Army post (up in NW Germany).....where they had a 'cut' in the fence, and suspected sabotage of the water treatment plant nearby.  Tests were done over the weekend...to prove there was NO poisoned water supply.

So yesterday.....a new piece of the story came out.  They brought in a guy to look at the ground around the cut fence, and he pointed out a couple of things....that most likely the fence was 'pulled-up' to some degree by a wild boar....who entered the Army post.

Yes....the whole alert and all the BS over the poisoned water....was just triggered by a wild boar entering the post.

2.  Some assault (with a knife) started up in a neighborhood in Munich.  Female culprit.

Leaves original location where police were called....ends up eventually in a grocery store, where the cops corner her.  Warnings to no avail.  The police end up shooting her.

Police said she had a record....not indicating what past crimes were.  Just odd....you rarely (if ever) have a knife assault conducted by a female in Germany.

3. Oktoberfest planning in session.  Munich chatter....hotels selling at all-time record on cost.  My own advice?  Use the rail system and get hotel rooms 40 to 60 minutes outside of town.

4.   Chancellor Scholz had a open-air 'talk' with citizens in Bremen.  He mostly wanted to talk over the budget.  Top subject with regular people?  Safety.....no one feels safe anymore.

5.  Police statistics came out yesterday.....highest crime level since 2012.

6. Some Russian Army recovery going on in Kursk.  Interesting German story.....as Russians arrive to 'save' Kursk....they went to robbing local houses.

7.  Discussion going on with the Justice Departments of Germany....if they can use AI to quicken the pace of things.

19 Aug 2024: Three German News Stories

 1.  During summer months in Germany....public TV....in particular, ARD (Channel 1) will go out and do dozens of interviews with various political folks....as they are on vacation-status.

So yesterday....came the ARD interview of Green Party 'boss' Omid Nouripour.  A question popped up and he spoke of the current SPD-led gov't (with the FDP and Greens)...."transitional government" after Merkel (CDU). 

It was a pretty awkward moment, and the German gal doing the interview was caught in some moment of shock....as this was explained.

Nouripour goes on to suggest that the divided nature of the three parties making up the coalition....just isn't going to change.

Using this logic....I'd say whoever wins and forms a government in the fall of 2025....will also be a transitional government...fairly divided, and whoever follows in 2029....will  also be a transitional government....fairly divided.

2.  Some statistic came up on knife crimes in Germany.....suggesting that via the railway network and stations....there is an average of two knife crimes per day.  In the numbers, it's just obvious that metro-stations  are the 'magnet' for the bulk of numbers.

3.  The four escapees from the mental hospital in Bavaria (considered dangerous)....are still on the loose this AM.

Bag Chatter

 Back in the mid-1990s....my son and my wife made a big deal about the school back-pack deal.  

Getting a plain bag?  NO.  It had to be a particular brand....Eastpak.  This was the 'Mercedes' of school bags.

At the time, they were pursuing the idea of a 90-DM (roughly $45) bag.  About every two years....this discussion would come up.

By the time you added up the books, notebooks, pens and gear.....there was probably 700 DM spent ($350).

Today?  Well.....for the upscale Eastpak bags here in Germany....it's in the 100 to 140 Euro range ($110 to $160), for the upper scale bags.   Even the moderate bags are nearing 75.

I sat and read through a WELT article this AM....talking over the problem of going cheap on the school bag and some kids now saying cheap bag give them a loser status.

18 Aug 2024: Seven German News Stories

1.  I sat and read through a Focus piece yesterday....talking over Germany and 'heat'.

 They threw out this 'fact'....saying RKI (Robert Koch Institute) figures by end of July this year in Germany....1,200 Germans died in some way related to heat....most of them over age 85.

I paused with the data.....someone else two weeks ago had a heat article....saying on average....about 200 Germans a year die in some way from heat.

This RKI estimate?  They are simply saying in some way.....dehydration and sun-stroke....figure into some deaths.  

I spent four years of my life in Arizona....where this was a daily topic, and people were careful about their daily business.  

Overdramatic?  Well...you just don't know if that many Germans are just not paying attention, or failing to sip water.

2. This cut-off of German funding to Ukraine?  It goes to one single subject....they can't make the budget balance, and cutting off the funding is the last resort thing....nothing else.

This BS that it relates to the Nord Stream explosion?  Just plain BS....the Germans have crafted themselves into a corner, and there's x-number of programs that must be funded....with nothing left for the war business.

Now, if you asked...did the insiders of the SPD/FDP know about the connection of the Ukrainian gov't to the blow-up act six months ago?  Yeah, I'd put money on that idea, and yeah....maybe some of them are a bit peeved (but they can't say that in public).

3. Commentary from the Saxony region.....state election shortly.  Green Party folks are in some despair mood....there's just no one in the state who really respects them or their 'message'

4.  Boris Becker getting married a 3rd time.

5.  Some bust-out of a mental-hospital occurred in Bavaria yesterday....four 'very-dangerous' individuals now on the loose.  Vast man-hunt underway.

6.  Some Ukrainian chatter.....with this advancement into Kursk....a serious number of conscripts were captured, and the talk is....some kind of trade of prisoners will take place shortly.

7.  CDU Party (right-of-center)....is talking a bit over the idea of raising the retirement age....because the pension program is not that 'safe'.  Older Germans won't like this discussion.

Fake News Chatter

 If you can find an issue WELT newspaper for today....there's an interesting piece written by Anna Schneider...worth reading.  Topic?  "Lies are legal."

So what she goes into detail about...various members of the German political system/government....with members of the EU....believe they have to go and protect people from fake news/false information/disinformation/etc.

But as Schneider points out.....there's also a group of the same 'players'....who are helping to spread fake news. 

I sat and read through a Labor Ministry piece today....they've decided to spend around 8-million Euro with a media company.....to create 'balanced' and fair stories on all the good things that the Ministry is doing.  

A mini-propaganda machine?  Well....no.....they suggest it'll all be factual and portray the good side of the labor market and jobs situation in Germany.

If you asked working-class Germans about the bull$hit-factor....they'd grin and say they can generally see bull$hit....especially if from the political parties.  

Kids and teenagers?  I'm not so sure.  From the last decade of Merkel....there wasn't a lot of respect from the German juveniles, and invented criticisms popped-up monthly.

The positive side of all this fake news chatter?  People are more guarded and judgmental.....compared to the 1980s.  

To Sum Up The Nord Stream II Pipeline Explosion Investigation

 The German prosecutors  have wrapped up the police report and put charges up on a Ukrainian master-diver.  On confidence-level?  I'd say they are seeing themselves near a '9' in terms of finishing the case and the 'crime'.

My observations?

First, I doubt that the master-diver will ever be caught and dragged to Germany.

Second, this story in some weird way....will help both the BSW and AfD Parties in next year's federal election.  Polling for BSW currently? 8.5-percent.  AfD?  18-percent.  I would imagine the combined amount for both....currently at 26.5-percent....will move up to 32-perent.  Both will go negative on the Ukraine for the explosion....getting the German public to react.

Third, it's just interesting that no one held the German police back and they laid out all the mistakes of the Ukraine crew on the sailboat.

Fourth and final....when this war ends....within six months, an agreement will likely occur to repair Nord Stream, and within a six-month period after that....sales of Russian natural gas will start back up.

17 August 2024: Six German News Stories

1.  Test done on the water for the two German military installations  broken into and sabotage was 'thought'.  NO....there was no sabotage.  However, yes, there was a cut in the fence.  

2.  I went to the Wiesbaden wine-fest Thursday.  Fairly warm...guys wearing shorts....gals wearing shorts/skirts. 

Just a lot of people with mosquito bites (bad bites....say like 20 on each leg)....I'd say one out ten percent of people had this situation.  The one odd thing I've noticed for summer of 2024....at least around my valley area....mosquitos are just rare.  So I'm wondering where all these people were hanging out and got bit.

3.  Hyped-up chatter on various German news sites.....just a lot of Afghan folks in Germany with a visa....taking vacation trips back and forth to Afghanistan.  Actually developed tour packages/flights engaging in this.  Interior Ministry is now  interested and probably going to forbid the travel, or admit that Afghanistan is 'safe' and force people to move 'home'.

4.  Monkey Pox chatter is bumping up a notch in Germany.

5.  New INSA survey/poll done in Saxony.....AfD ahead of CDU now.  Greens, Linke and SPD all at five-percent (ify-situation if they can clear the 5-percent point).  BSW in 3rd place.

6.  BSW Party staking out a position for the national election next year.....they want Russian oil turned back on. 

16 August 2024: Seven German News Stories

 1. Interesting twist.....these 'new' powers that the federal police were seeking, via the Interior Ministry....ran into a problem....the chief of the Justice Ministry (Buschmann, FDP Party) said 'NO, you don't need extra power to spy on people'.

In fact, in his public statement....he brought up the Basic Law (the German Constitution) and how such a request was absolute 'taboo'.

2.  German Ministry of Health will apparently order 15-million doses of Covid vaccine.

If you asked me on public acceptance?  Where I've seen this topic brought up in small groups....it's mostly upwards to three-quarters of Germans who don't seem to have confidence in the previous vax deal or the effective nature (more so to this issue).

3.  The search for Burkhard Garweg, the Red Army Faction guy?  It continues on.

In the last day or two....some Federal cops thought they had him on some train in the Berlin area.  An individual was grabbed and detained for a number of hours.  Later, the cops admitted....this guy was NOT Garweg, and the guy expressed a fair amount of shock over what he had to go through....to prove he was not the RAF guy.

4.  Ukraine Zelensky knowing about the plan to blow up the Nord Stream pipe?  Well...the way that the Germans now tell the story....Zelensky was told about a dozen hours before the explosion occurred, and he might have had a few drinks as they told him the 'story'.

If any of this is true....then it was not a personal matter, and the Ukraine bears some responsibility.  But I doubt that this guy noted in the charges....ever leaves the Ukraine.

5.  On the Kursk invasion business.....local Russians are telling German journalists (on the scene)....that there wasn't much of a reaction.  A few shots fire....mostly conscripts in a retreat situation.  

6.  Curious deal....the EU has a emissions standard....heavily imposed on the transport sector.  Presently, with calculations done....unless something occurs (EU-wise)...Germany now faces billions (yearly) in fines.  The start-up of this fine business?  2030.

How the calculation looks presently, with trends projected?  Minimum of 9-billion Euro....max of 55-billion Euro.

Consequences?  One of three 'paths':

 - The German gov't could hand the fine down to trucking companies....meaning cost for delivery will escalate (I'd take a guess by double, but maybe even triple).  Course, truckers would hand the bill to consumers.  My math skills at this level?  I'd be guessing each adult in Germany would pay something like 500 Euro extra a year.....purely for truck fines.

- The German gov't could go to the EU and say this doesn't work.  I don't think they have the guts to do this.

 - The German gov't could demand massive truck mandates/regulations....probably costing more than 55-billion Euro a year and creating massive chaos in the delivery industry.  Politicians often think they know how to evolve commerce and force change.

My humble view?  Maybe the EU will be gracious enough to take the 55-billion (yearly) and just write a check to each  consumer...a refund of what each person put in....as a 'gift' from the wonderful EU for protecting the environment.  

(Might be simpler to encourage Germans to leave in mass for Thailand or Philippines....cutting the population and evil truck pollution)

7.  US approved sale of 600 Patriot missiles to Germany. Roughly five billion dollars of value.

Germany And The Monkey-Pox Chatter?

 If you watch public TV news....the Monkey-Pox chatter has started up (not at a number one news item, but seems to be at the same stage of the first week of Covid-chatter back in 2020).

WHO chatter?  Simply a 4-star warning....you need to worry.

What you really get from this 'pox'?  Cough/sore throat, fever, aches, exhaustion, chills.  

From exposure to active status?  Usually 1 to 3 weeks later.

People dying from Monkey-Pox?  Well...no.  You go into a 'bump' period....rash situation....severe itch deal....scabbed-up, then recovery.  If you get the pox on your face a good bit....it might be a personal woes situation....where you really don't want to travel in public.

What I'll suggest here...if anything of a mandate occurs....you probably see a glove-mandate of some type, and touching surfaces (like on a bus/train, opening a door, or operating equipment) is of concern.  I fail to see how a mask would do any good. Use of alcohol-rub?  Yeah, if you are like me.....I've still got three containers on the shelf left from the Covid-era.

Germans not likely to take mandates well?  Oh, I'd say somewhere between 30 and 50 percent of Germans won't be accepting of any serious mandates.  You might be able to mandate everyone wear plastic gloves when in stores but beyond that....it's not going to be much that Germans will take extra measures.

Seven Things Over This Ukraine-Russia 'Invasion' In Kursk

 Timing  is everything....in a war.  Sometimes, you have timing to your advantage.....sometimes...timing works against you.

First, as of this morning....Ukraine still occupies a pretty fair amount of the Kursk area.  Depending on who is telling the story and arranging the map....I'd say they control a 60 by 60 mile chunk of Russian property.  From the border, it was a mere 40-mile convoy trip.   

Second, German journalists are entering the region (I assume in some protective way by the Ukraine Army....to tell this story).  Their story so far?  A lot of dead Russian conscripts laying around.

Whether the term 'lot' is true or not....I can't say.  If you asked me on how much training the conscripts had for the situation?  I'd guess they had six weeks of 'boot-camp' and maybe two to four weeks of extra training.  If you had them with seasoned troops....they might do well, but if you just had 500 conscripts with a dozen officers, and no seasoned people....it's a crappy mess.

Third, whatever reinforcements are in the situation....for  Russia, I don't expect them to arrive and stage a offensive for at least another week.  Where they draw this 'force' from?  Well...obviously from the mass  of troops on the eastern front of Ukraine....meaning they lessen their presence there.

Fourth, Belarus in this whole game?  I would imagine that Putin wants to put massive pressure on Belarus to react, and stage a 20-mile incursion into the Ukraine.  Belarus commanders are sitting there and likely shaking their heads.....as seriously deflated as Russia is....Belarus is probably not that prepared for a offensive situation.

Fifth.....it's a remarkable scene being played out.  Putin is a magician who has a very successful 'rabbit-in-the-hat' trick, which has played over and over....to the point now....where he has a 'dead-rabbit' in his hand and the audience isn't that impressed with the act.

Sixth.....if this were the first six months of 'war'....Putin would still have a fair sized inventory of tanks/APCs/artillery....that he could draw upon and stage a quick offensive (meaning three to four weeks to prepare).  At this point....the generals will just respond 'sure-we-can-stage-a-offensive' and deliver a dozen tanks to impress everyone.  

Seventh and final....if there were ever a point where Putin should launch some massive 200-rocket launch on Kiev....this is it.  But the question is....do they still have any real inventory of rockets left to launch?  

Footnote: On my threat to Europe status index....one to ten....I'd now have to rate Russia at a '2'...only because of medium-range missiles.  Beyond that....it's a zero threat situation.  

Added note: Where the Nazis went wrong in WW II for their invasion into Russia....they took a tremendous amount of gain, with marginal logistical support.  Rather than slow down and build up a logistical chain.....they were left with a unsustainable 'war'.  In Ukraine's case?  If they don't go past Kursk....build trenches and keep some type of anti-tank weapon inventory on hand....I could see them holding the Kursk area for a indefinite period.  Russian strategy?  Well....bomb the hell out of Russian villages/territory.....which tells a remarkable story to the Russian people.  I would imagine Putin has already hired some monument designer....to make a 'I-saved-Kursk' statue.  

Added note (9:30 AM), Moscow orders an additional 20,000 Russians to leave the Kursk region.  I'm assuming these are folks on the north and eastern sides of Kursk.  Now, if you asked....how organized is this evacuation?  I would guess it's barely 100 Russians engaged in the 'act', and there's no real plan on where to house the new group of 20,000.  Odds of another 20-odd thousand by Sunday to evacuate?  Yeah, it wouldn't shock me if the order expanded.

Bad confidence measure?  Russians have to be watching these developments and asking more questions than normal.  

Winter-playing into this this?  Well...in about eight weeks....you need to start considering cooler temperatures and how temp-housing for the evac-folks will be handled.  

Movie From Last Night

 Last night, I ended up watching a ARD (German public TV, Channel 1) movie from 2021...'Das Haus' (The House).

So the slant of this movie...revolves around two topics....AI and society unraveling into a civil war.

Some German journalist has been relieved from work....for telling a slant of news that is discouraged (this is supposed to be 2029 in the future).  'Huns' has gone off to some remote island of Germany.....with a ultra-modern house....run by AI. 

Yes, 'Huns' is peeved and disgruntled over the mess.

Early on in this story....you get the impression that the AI module in the house....is a threat (won't open doors).

TV stories pop up....civil conflict starting up and society falling apart (at least from a German prospective).

I'll just say in the final 20 minutes....the daughter of this guy (with the boyfriend) end up being set-up and murdered by the house AI system.  Also, the boss shows up on the island and wants material that the journalist has written (it goes badly for the boss in the end). 

Closing scene.....the wife has the material....the House AI has locked the guy into the house and he can't escape (while the wife is outside and does leave).

It was an interesting scenario....but combining the AI with the civil conflict deal...just didn't work.

The one thing that the movie does do?  Well....Germans are generally being fed (spoon by spoon)....to have a healthy negativity about AI and where things are going.  The movie just reinforces that attitude.

My one critical note?  Well....the island scene (takes up 99-percent of the movie) is NOT a German island  (this is an actual real island....off the Swedish coast).  After reviewing the history of the movie....yeah, they needed a ultra-modern  site for the house scenes, and this Swedish home (actually on an island) fits the script perfectly.

As for a recommendation....yeah, it's worth watching but don't take it too serious.

2025 German Elections?

 There are only two key elections in 2025 within Germany.

First, there is a Hamburg 'state' election....slated for early spring.  

If you were asking me on polling?  Most of it leads toward a SPD-win....in the 30-to-33 percent range, with the Greens picking up near 20-to-22 percent.  

Second, the German national election in early fall  of 2025. 

On polling?  I'll just say that between the SPD and CDU/CSU folks....the combined vote probably won't go past 45-percent....lowest  combined vote since WW II. Opposition parties are carrying the bulk of voter support. 

Now...for 2026?  Man, there's five state elections slated for the year and the effect of the national election in 2025....probably will have a big twist on outcomes.

Three Things

 1. Early this AM (Thursday)...climate activists broke through security at Bonn/Koln Airport and BER (Berlin's airport).  Operations temporarily shut-down.

2.  Interesting piece in WELT newspaper this AM.....numbers say that Germany has still not recovered from the Covid-era economic crisis, and things are stagnant (6th year by their data).  

Yeah, that would mean that the trend actually started two years prior to the arrival of Covid, and other issues were in play (if you believe the story).  And yes, that would be deep into the Merkel era.  

3.  Weird accident last night in Hamburg.  Six residents of a apartment building....gathered up on one balcony, and under the weight....it collapsed.  One guy in pretty serious condition.  Group fell 3 floors. 

Adding Up The Nord Stream II Charge Business?

 Basically, as the Germans have wrapped up the investigation....they can show a particular Ukrainian diving expert....came into Poland, and rented a boat, which was out in the affected area at the right time for the Nord Stream II blast.  

Convincing material?  Well....ONLY if you could get the guy to show up in court and be asked some questions.

I'm mostly of the opinion that he will never venture beyond Ukraine for the remainder of his life.

Even if he did do it.....was this an adventure on his own, or simply carrying out 'orders'?

Any of this a big deal with German society?  No.  Both public TV and commercial TV in Germany covered the story yesterday.  It's the type that will slide off by this weekend and be forgotten within two weeks.

Odds of Nord Stream being put back into order, if a treaty was worked out....ending the war?  Oh, I'd say within a year....the pipe would be repaired and Germans would be buying natural gas from Russia.  Driving force?  German industry needing cheap natural gas to 'perform'.

The one odd thing?  This whole bogus story of the US Navy involved and the story that Seymour Hersh laid out?  Totally false, and the Germans not buying into it at all.

15 August 2024: Six German News Stories

 1. Remember the ban on the right-wing magazine 'COMPACT' from like 10 days ago that I brought up....by the Interior Ministery?

Well...a court stood up and said it is now 'unbanned'.  Their hype?  The ban was not proportional in nature.

Minister of Interior is the one looking bad at this point.  

2.  This talk of suspicion of water sabotage at the NATO base in Geilenkirchen?  So far, just suspicion.  This is the 2nd base (same general area)....first one from a day or two ago....at Cologne-Wahn.

More investigation over this.

Facts?  There is a cut-fence entry situation....door forced open at the water plant, and the initial analysis shows some change in the water.  Tests required, and it might be a day or two before they say what is in the water.

3.  German reporting over Ukraine entry into Kursk, Russia.  Some interview was done and there's a comment of a 'lot of dead Russian conscripts'.  Ukraine appears to  be holding territory still today.

4.  BSW Party taking a strong position against the storing of US cruise missiles in Germany.

5.  This terrorism business in Vienna with the Swift concert?  Cops have identified five people in the planning process at this point.

6. Curious thing....last night while watching commercial German tv....Ad comes up, for Playboy magazine.  First time ever that I've seen a TV ad.  

Prediction Chatter

 A couple times a year, I come and bring the crystal ball out and make predictions....so for mid-2024....three:

1.  After the 3 German state elections end here in 2024....I'll predict that the SPD and CDU parties gather and discuss the idea of allowing any party in a state or fed election...having 3-percent (the current rule of 5-percent is in place) of the votes....would get representation 'seats'.

Parties affected, they were to change the rules?  VOLT and the Free-Party.  I believe both might do well in the 2025 federal election.

Oddly, both will take votes from bigger parties.

2.  I'll predict that by early spring 2025....the Labour Party in the UK will run up the idea of re-applying to be part of the EU...WITHOUT a national vote.

Some countries within the EU will shake their heads....this is just asking for more drama.

The shocking side of this?  Several members of the Tory Party will be open to the idea.  

3.  A major push within highly urbanized German cities will result in massive 'frisk-and-search' knife situations....with over 1,000 'gentlemen' ending up in some type of jail-situation.  The Green Party will say it's unfair that men were the bulk of who were searched/frisked, and that women numbers need to be 50-percent.  

Three Curious Things

 1.  Early this AM (Wed)....a German federal prosecutor has launched charged against a Ukrainian diving instructor.....who is believed to be the guy who helped to organized the Nord Stream pipeline explosion.

Arrest warrant is out....whether they can 'get' him....unknown.

Denmark and Sweden?  They dropped the investigation almost 2 years ago.

2.  RTL TV news did a study of Afghans who have a visa to stay in Germany....claiming it is too dangerous to live in Afghanistan.  Well....study shows....they regularly visit Afghanistan and their relatives.

The Interior Ministry?  They don't seem to notice or care.  Kina funny, if you think about it.

3.  Interior Ministry is about to give Fed-Police of Germany a 'power' to quietly/secretly enter homes of people on the 'watch' list (for terrorism).  Before this 'power'....you had to request action via a prosecutor and get approved by a judge.  

14 August 2024: Nine German News Stories

 1.  I spent yesterday up in Koln....at a Ramses II museum display (would recommend it, but it's 'cheap').  Temp for the day?  36.5 C (98 F).  Yeah....hottest day of the year so far.  Weather guy says that's IT.....trend downward over the next week, then 24/25 C for remainder of August.  I'll just say mildest summer for me in Germany ever.  Maybe for the whole month of June....just three days of 30 C (or more) in my little valley.

Location if you were interested?  ODYSSEUM, Corintostraße 1.  And yes, there is parking under the building

2.  German at a outdoor pool in Bremen, took a dive on a 10-meter board.  Dead....hit the water horizontal.  Maybe he was trying to impress someone.

3.  Interior Minister had a talk yesterday....says she wants the entry point checks to continue for the rest of 2024.  

4.  36-year old German gal found dead on the street in Gelsenkirchen, stabbed.  Cops investigataing.....no witnesses.

5.  Halle, parking garage.....some gal from Monday....got into the spiral drive and ends up going off the rail...plunges three or four floors down.  This is one of those phobia things that some people have in Germany....trying to drive in a spiral in a parking garage.

6. Some of the things highlighted in the Saxony state election coming up:

- Lignite mining to continue in Saxony after 2038?

- Position on continuing supply of weapons to Ukraine?

- Should more hospitals in the state be publicly owned?

- ID checks at the border to continue?

- Should Saxony universities continue in relationships with companies?

- Should more emphasis occur  with wind-power generators?

- Should the state pursue gender ID?

- Should the state mandate anti-racism courses or the state police?

- Public transportation being free for all residents of the state?

- Should the state mandate a female-quota on management?

- Should the state be more aggressive on deporting people....once they've failed the request?

-- Footnote, as much as you think Germany functions as a nation-state...it's really sixteen states with a fair amount of say in matters.

7.  Storms last night?  Big time....across Pfalz, Baden-Wurttemberg, and Hessen. 

8.  Ukraine now appears to control 1,000 square kilometers of Russian 'sacred soil'.  Kinda shocking.

Some suggestion (German press) that the Russian military has not laid out the whole collapse there, and Putin might only be getting information that he would feel good about.

9.  CDU voters asked in a poll....would you approve of a partnership with the AfD (far-right)?  Well....45-percent said for a coalition deal....yes.  I suspect a lot of this comes from eastern Germany.

Odds at fed level occurring?  ZERO.  

After All This Ukraine 'Invasion' Into Russia, Then What?

 I had a fair amount of time yesterday to think over the Ukraine tactics of the past week....invading into a section of Russia, and Russia having to evacuate around 7,000 residents.

So my projection or scenario?  If this was Russia-2022....there would be a colossal retaliation situation.  Well....it's NOT.  This is a much-weakened Russia of 2024.

My guess is that the Russians will go to a massive missile launch and it'll be way more than anything seen in the war.  

Ukraine expecting this?  Yeah, and this will be the 'card' to hand NATO and ask for more weapons/help.  

Weakening Russia even more?  Yeah...that is probably 99-percent of the intended consequence.

Just Some Thoughts

 

Yesterday, I noticed that the EU's  Commissioner Thierry Breton wrote up a 'note-of-warning' to Elon Musk....over the interview of Donald Trump.

So the key points (it is a simple 1-pager....not some 10-pager)....there are 'key obligations' to be met....penalties may occur....a 'hint' that maybe you should not interview Trump....you have to prevent misinformation.

The letter has been on my mind since reading it a dozen hours ago.

So three observations:

1.  If the EU is that bothered over the 'talk' of one guy....then the open-talk of 20-million people should worry them to no end.  All of social media should be taken down....if it represents a threat to humanity.

2.  You only have misinformation....when words have been spoken.  Then you can evaluate the words.  To say one MIGHT be passing misinformation, but it has yet to occur....is illogical and serves no purpose.  

3.  I'll just say for Germans....the majority of people are capable enough to tell when BS (misinformation or disinformation) occurs.  If you asked a dozen Germans over political figures routinely passing disinformation.....at least half will grin and list two or three figures who BS people.

I can't speak to Italians or Greeks or Spanish folks....but I'd assume it's pretty close to the same 'feeling'.

Finally, I'll just say this....after all the Covid chatter of 2020/2021/2022....if you wanted to talk over the threat of disinformation or misinformation....it's a BIT too late, and folks aren't that hyped-up to listen to your warnings of today.

If the EU wants to save humanity....just dump all social media.  It's a simple fix....take down the internet to some degree and regulate people.  It's not a big deal unless you can't save humanity.  On my personal list of 55,488 priorities to accomplish....saving humanity probably doesn't come up until the last dozen items.

(Not to upset folks.....but if you saved humanity on a Monday....it's a pretty sure bet by Wednesday afternoon, you'd be called upon once again.  You'd have to put on some super-suit and make this a pretty regular profession.  OR, you'd just let  things blunder along like the past 40,000 years)

13 August 2024: Four German News Stories

 1.  I spent part of yesterday in France....a brief shopping trip.  

So on the way back....German border comes up, and the cops have a station set up for 'checks'....on the autobahn.  We were waved on through...no stop.  Just odd....haven't been stopped at the border since the 1980s.

2.  'Hart Aber Fair' came on last night (public forum show, ARD...Channel One of public TV).  Topic?  Supporters of Israel and pro-Palestinian sides gave a big talk over the 'war'.

I'll just say after about 20 minutes....moderator WAS NOT in control and this forum ran reckless. Somewhere by the 25th minute....I cut to another channel.

This subject on a top 10 or top 20 list of German topics?  Maybe if you are German-Jewish or German-Mid-Eastern....but I would say this is not even a top 100 talking situation for most working-class Germans.

3. Ulrich Reitz wrote up a fine commentary (in FOCUS) over the German Interior Minister (Faeser, SPD Party).....with the subject that clearly things need to happen over the number of knife assaults in Germany.  His key point?  Well....it's time to engage on serious migration changes.

Faeser key push?  She wants more stop-and-frisk approvals....city-by-city.  

This knife assault business worrying the public?  Well....if you live in a urbanized 'zone' (Frankfurt or Hamburg for example)....yeah, you probably pay more attention to your surroundings.

4.  The most direct Bahn/railway route between Hamburg and Berlin?  Down for renovation....at least six months.  

Three Things

1.  I got up early this AM and watched the end-ceremony of the Olympics....just 12 min of clips.

Maximum artsy stuff, and eventually....I just played it mute (no sound). Remind me in four years....just leave out the opening and closing ceremony.

2.  Massive anti-tourist protest in Mallorca, Spain over the weekend.  I'll just say it....this is gradually building up, and eventually (probably three years in the future)....the Germans will wake up and cease using Spain as a vacation destination.  GDP in Spain will drop in a massive way, but that's the public sentiment....fewer tourists.

3.  There WILL be a open debate within the Bundestag over this idea of medium-range US cruise missiles being 'stored' in Germany.  Not sure if there is broad-support within the SPD Party.  

With implications of the fall 2025 election....I'd suggest this one single debate....will not be the last discussion over the idea.  

Knife Chatter

For those who didn't know....the German Federal Police came out in the past week and said the number of violent assaults involving knives on trains and at train stations....increased in a big way in the past year.

The number?  For 2023....8,951 reported cases of dangerous and serious bodily harm involving knives.  It's up by near 6-percent over the previous year.

So....a comment came out by the Interior Minister (Nancy Faeser, SPD)...she wants 'locals' (note she didn't lay this act upon the Bundestag or the states themselves)....to restrict in some way....oddly using the current 'gun-laws'.  Where this rule change is going?  Currently, the max limit of length on knives in a public setting is 12 centimeters.  Faeser wants it down to six centimeters. 

Added to the words....she wants more knife ban zones....meaning?  Well....in such a zone, the police could walk up to you....ask for an ID, then state a frisk is in order.

We have a weapons-zone in Wiesbaden....the signs are up and it states from this evening time until like 5 AM....an encounter in this 'zone' with the cops....gives them the absolute right to ID/frisk you.  

How effective is this?  Cops in town actively report this on the blotter....usually from walks on Friday and Saturday night....saying 20-odd people were encountered and IDed/frisked....with usually two or three having drugs and maybe one or two per week having a weapon.  The confiscation of the weapon?  Yeah, but you get a automatic summons to the city court....where a judge will hear your stupidity chat....then assess you a couple thousand Euro for a fine.  No one says much if the idiots have the money to pay the fine.....I have my doubts if the city ever collects 100-percent of the fine.

So to the subject of Faeser and the public perception?  Well...the older German folks (those over 50) don't remember all this knife business from the 1980s or 1990s.  If you go to smaller villages or towns?  There's just not a problem there.  You are typically finding it in bigger cities. 

At this point....the enforcement 'gimmick' relates to a zone where you get frisked, confiscation takes place, and you pay a substantial fine.  Rarely does this result in jail-time.  It's a preventative situation....for the most part.

What I think is worrying the Interior Ministry?  Well...the trend is showing more and more knife crimes.....they don't want to wake up in five years with the average number doubling.  There's just not that many 'tricks' left in the book unless you frisk people....find the weapon....then haul them off for six months of jail-time.

My Idea

 After all the stuff of the past two weeks....I came to this idea.  Why not take the old Covid-App that the German gov't tossed to the public....where it tracked you and if you were near some Covid-infected person during the day (within 2 meters)....it'd alert you and just say something to the effect that maybe you ought to self-test for Covid shortly.

So here's how I want to use the basic App.

There's apparently a list of perceived talking subjects within various countries of Europe....that politicians and the police feel...it's best you not comment in public forums or social media.  People will argue over this, but I'd take a guess that there's a minimum of 1,000 talking points that the authorities want to be forbidden.  It differs from country to country.

So I want a data-base....country-to-country....where there's two listings. First listing....forbidden talking points.  Second list....individuals will be able to list what they want to talk about, or what they hate talking about.

You'd be in the subway of Frankfurt, and look at your App.....with it telling you that the gal next to is interested in Elvis (you are as well)....so you'd just up a public chat with the stranger...on Elvis.

You'd be in some balcony situation...wanting to do a 'dump' on some hot topic, and look up the topic on the App....with the gov't telling you this subject (refugees for example) is not a social media approved topic.  So you can't say anything in social media about the subject.  However, you discover there's nothing wrong about talking over crime in your village....as long as you don't mention the ethnic situation of the criminals.

Paying for the App?  Well...it' part of the media situation, so you simply add 3 Euro per person....onto the TV/Media tax....forcing everyone to have the App on their smart-phone.

The neat thing about this App.....you'd train people how to discuss things, or not discuss things.  

My original thought of the way to introduce this?  Well...I was going to hire a former Stasi-agent from DDR (old East Germany) to be the spokesperson, and just casually have pop-tunes in the background....speaking out on how everyone could do their part to lessen tension and improve chatting.

How many chat topics on the personal level?  Oh I could see more than 90,000.  We could have groups talking about beer, cannabis, old episodes of Columbo, silly cat videos, vacation tips, and maybe even Bible verses.  

The bad-boys who'd violate App 'rules'?  I'd send them off to some thought-control class for two weeks....where you get 12 hours a day of lectures how to control your chatting.

I even had a name for the App....'4891'....yeah, the reverse of '1984'.  

11 August 2024: Eight German News Stories

1.  I told the story on Friday...of a convicted Somali guy in Lower Bavaria who escaped from custody, and found later (re-arrested by the police).

Well....the police added a footnote Saturday...this Somali (convicted on murder charges)....who was considered "extremely dangerous"....was allowed to go to the supervised trip to a local theater...with supervision handled by a psychologist and an intern.  He wasn't really in prison....this appears to be a mental-holding facility. 

As for what movie he was watching?  Left out of the story.

I'm just guessing the cops are asking a lot of questions if this were the 'norm' and how you can be 'extremely dangerous' yet sitting in a theater watching a cowboys or aliens movie.

2.  Heat wave coming?  Monday, in my little  valley....high for the year predicted....now at 33 C (91.4)....to be followed the next day by a cooling trend.  Weather guy insists that that is IT for summer of 2024....rest of August figured to be no more than 26 C.  I have to say it for my village....most moderate summer in 20-odd years.  AC unit stayed in the basement the whole time.

3.  The FDP Party brought up an unusual topic...parking in mid-town areas, under some type of flat-rate parking fee....wanting to sell this to the Green Party.

So the main thrust of this....a lot of towns (not the mega-cities like Frankfurt or Bremen)...have a commerce problem, with small shops suffering because of people avoiding mid-town areas.  To restage things...this idea is to have one single fee (not an hourly fee) and hope to get business bumped-up a bit.

4.  It's a long-winded story, but I'll try to tell it in a shortened fashion.  Down in the Stuttgart region....at Vaihingen....the city council decided that they needed to have a permanent refugee housing solution.  They were going to create one housing area....totally dedicated to refugees.  

So when plan 'A' was presented in Feb.....this was slated at 9.3-million Euro...shocking the hell out of the audience gathered to hear the project.    Politically, this wasn't going to work.

The city sent the general idea out for another bid....less is better....was probably the catch-phrase.

So this past week.....the winner came forward at 5.5-million Euro.  But a new issue popped-up.

Where they intend to put the refugee neighorhood....is the old city garbage dump (

Accommodation for refugees is to be built in Vaihingen/Enz.  However, criticism was pouring in from a voters' association. The association considers the location on a former garbage dump to be "unacceptable".

How much was the state (via the federal distribution program of money) was going to cover, period?  Well....around 1.3-million Euro.  The rest was on the back of the city itself.  

I'll just be blunt and say the crowd at this meeting was pretty 'sour'.  So the plan was sent back for further planning.  New bid established in the past week....at 5.5-million Euro.  

That should have been it....but now a new topic has come up....where they intend to build this neighborhood.  It's apparently on the edge of what was the old city garbage dump.

Based off reading various pieces....the area is 'certified' as 'recovered' in some way....meaning they dropped a ton of top-soil on the area and landscaped it.  Owner of the property?  Well....the city itself.  There would be no cost, if this were the site. 

Will this fall through?  I'm guessing enough complaints will occur, and the city will be forced to find new property....meaning they'd probably have to buy such property, and we get back into a money-crunch situation...where folks are shocked over property prices.  Added to this burden....once you establish where the refugee housing will be and it's near any private housing....those folks will complain about the placement.

I don't see this project taking off anytime soon.

5.  Interesting political piece in WELT by Harold Martenstein....topic? The political boss of the new BSW Party is Sahra Wagenknecht.  So Martenstein points out this odd issue....a lot of what Wagenknecht hypes on in speeches....seems to be similar in nature to what you'd find in the right-wing AfD Party.

It's expected of the 3 states elections coming up in September....BSW probably will be a partner in a eventual coalition with the CDU in two of the states.  

Naturally, this discussion about points leading back to the AfD is coming now. 

I'm not saying the whole BSW program leads this way, but obviously....they've been designed in a way to lessen AfD votes, and bring those people over to BSW.

6.  Comment yesterday by Habeck (Economic Minister, Greens)....no, he won't support a new tax on wood pellets.

7.  Kursk region....how many locals left?

Russians say....76,000.  Whether it's true or not...unknown.

One odd thing I noticed in Kursk reporting....the journalists area suggesting a huge number of the newly deployed folks to repel the Ukrainians....are conscripts.  Marginal training?  Yeah....so the suggestion is that a higher number of them will die.

8.  Watching N-TV this AM....noted three-quarters of German districts are in some type of bad financial situation.

What the President of the German Association of Districts says? There's likely to be cuts for sports clubs and museums....unless some federal emergency funding occurs.

This Russian - Ukraine - Kursk Situation

 To put the Kursk situation into some prospective....Kursk, Russia lies about 30 to 40 km's from the Ukraine border.  It's  one single paved road...from the border to Kursk. 

What most military analysts say?  Generally, three things.  This Ukraine offensive force wasn't that big of a group.  That the Russians didn't have that many troops protecting the area around the Kursk-Ukraine border.  And that the Russian immediate reaction...was to retreat and wait for reinforcements to arrive (whether it took a day or two....or a week). 

Two key factors now coming out?  Well...lot of Russians in Kursk are now fearful, and in some form of evacuation (no idea where they'd go but just elsewhere).  Then there's this odd perception....where did this 6-week Putin invasion plan go wrong in 2022?

As for why the Ukrainians are on this aggressive strategy?  I would suggest that they've read the Trump 'notes' and realize that funding and help will collapse in January.  So you might as well use what assets you have now....to create a weakened situation or Putin's folks.  

If they were to advance past Kursk?  The next 'big' town up the road (heading north, 50 km) is Oryol.  Taking into consideration the entire district....it's around 700,000 in population.    

If you took a unremarkable Ukrainian group of 40 vehicles and 2,000 men....you'd end up with 200,000 locals freaked out and trying to exit the town in a matter of an hour or two.  

The Russians having mobility in their favor and 'saving' the day?  Well....yeah, that would have been the case in 2022.  I am not that sure such mobility exists today, or that you could do much....other than send a few fighters to bomb the approaching force...hoping they have no Surface-to-Air missiles.

Belarus getting a phone-call to aid?  Yeah, I could see Putin asking for help and some type of force could be launched to also 'invade' Russia....to save it from the other invaders.  

This little invasion continuing on?  I'd ask here where the 'end-point' is, and how much fuel/reserves that the Ukrainians have planned for this operation.    If the invasion group still exists in seven days?  That's the other factor....you'd think that Putin would make this priority number one....to take them out of action.

The Necessity Of Shaking A Woman's Hand In Civilized Society

 I sat and watched a video...where a noted lady (will skip the name) was in a public setting, with cameras to note her appearing at a public institution....where Islamic migrants were present and part of a 'dog-and-pony' show.

For those not understanding the meaning of a 'dog-and-pony' show....this is usually a PR event where public money has been spent, and some bigwig (usually five to ten guests) have come to see how people are thrilled over the expenditure of money has lifted people from the 'pits'.

So in this group.....the noted lady arrived by car, and cameras were showing up having a face-to-face meeting....with her hand stretched out, and of the three guys of the facility....two were non-Muslim and shook the lady's hand.  The 3rd guy....the Muslim migrant...took his right hand and placed over his heart...refusing to shake the lady's hand.

I'm not saying the action is right or wrong...it's just that it's often perceived in a negative fashion.

I went to a number of German language classes (2014 to 2017).  This got brought up early in class number one....female teacher (about 80-percent of the instructors I had....were female)...came around to each desk to shake hands.  Everyone in the group (about 50-percent divided, male/female) shook hands.  She made it clear...issues had popped up in previous classes, and if you didn't shake her hand....she arranged for your removal from the class.  Yeah, she, being German, wasn't going to put up with BS.

The one key thing one can take from society in Germany in 2024....women are equals.  Pretty good chance that as you advance through work or politics in Germany.....you will encounter and respect women.  

Playing the I-don't-need-shake-your-hand game?  I wouldn't advise it.  It's like the I-don't-need-to-recycle game or I-don't-need-to-respect-the-police game.  

At some point in the welcome-to-Germany process....there should have been an entire day explaining German expectations and cultural differences.  Then it should have been made clear....you accept this new 'level' of life as part of the guest rules. If you felt this was impossible....you should have moved on and found a better landscape to settle upon.

The whole of German society depending on mutual respect?  Well....yeah, things have gone to this extent.    

Oh, and if you were wondering about the incident with the lady?  No....this was not a German situation.  

How The Sachsen State Election Appears (1 Sep 2024)

 Well....polling taken in early August shows the CDU Party likely winning with 34-percent of the vote.

Doe this match up with the EU election from June?  No....they had 22-percent in that election.  

If the poll holds?  AfD will be near 30-percent (2nd place).

In 3rd place?  BSW with 11-percent.

Linke, SPD and Greens are all in the five-percent range mostly.

If you do the coalition situation....the CDU would have to partner up with BSW, and likely the SPD....to get a coalition built.

In the event that the AfD gets near 32-percent (like they did in the EU election)?  Well....there's no one to partner with them, and a very weak CDU....probably with 25-percent...would have to partner with the BSW, and at least two of the lesser parties (SPD and Greens likely).  

I'll just say it...in a partnership build 'contest'....if you get into a 4-group situation....it usually doesn't get much appreciation by the public over 'promises' made.  

All of this in the end leaving a heavy burden for the fed election in the fall of 2025?  More or less...both the CDU/CSU group and the SPD party....are in a weakened state.  Combined....the group won't get past 45-percent and it represents a difficult coalition-building process.  

And I'll say that BSW figures into fed election as an eventual partner of 'someone'. 

How The Brandenburg State Election Appears (22 Sep 2024)

 I looked at polling data (mid-July)....from INSA.

Presently, AfD will probably take in the 24-percent range and technically win.

HOWEVER, since no one will form a coalition with them....it's really the 2nd place winner (likely to be the SPD Party) that gets the nod to form a coalition state gov't.

SPD numbers?  Presently....19-percent.

In 3rd place....CDU Party with 18-percent.

At 17-percent....is the newly formed BSW Party.

The Greens and Linke Party.....both appear to be in the 5-to-6 percent range.

So my humble guess....the SPD forms a state coalition here....probably with BSW and the Greens.  

The one odd thing?  The present polling and the EU election results from early June....don't match up well.  From that episode....the SPD had only 13-percent, and the AfD folks had near 27-percent.  

I'm not saying the EU election results will repeat....just that polling is a bit different two months later.  

10 Aug 2024: Seven German News Stories

1.  Odd story out of Bavaria.  Cops were called....convicted guy (Somali)....who had been held on conviction of murder....in a mental hospital facility (Mainkofen Hospital in Deggendorf)....had just walked away.  Police spent a day looking for him...finding him 11:30 PM near a grocery near Plattling.

Personal interest?  I spent a weekend in Plattling last year.  Very quiet town.  

2.  Some evidence existing....showing a Berlin ISIS 'minister' influencing the two Austrian guys accused of the terror planning over the Taylor Swift concerts in Vienna. 

Added note, the teenagers (age 19) involved in terror planning....apparently weren't Austrians by birth....they were Iraqi.  It took about 2 days for the police to mention this fact.

Added note, a 3rd gentlemen has been detained as part of this investigation by the police in Vienna. 

3.  New German tax being discussed....over wood-pellet heating systems.  Politicians considering the systems dangerous for climate.

Pellet system has not really caught on that much (at least yet).

4.  This crossing of the border toward Kursk by the Ukrainians?  Just from the German news reports....I'd say whatever force the Russians had there....were not adequate or trained.  It would appear retreat was the first and only priority.

Russian reaction?  Well....most ordinary Russians seem shocked....like how this was possible.

5.  There's talk of German banks asking for your new property energy certificate....when applying or a mortgage.  

Meaning?  Well...if it marginally 'passes'....the bank could say 'no mortgage'.  This could put sellers of older homes in a tough spot....unable to sell their property unless you got the home certificate 'improved' in some way.

6.  BMW board came out and had this radical suggestion for improving E-car sales.  They want the German states to add ONE extra 'lane' on autobahns....just for E-cars ONLY.  They say if you had this free lane....you might be more likely to buy an E-car.

BS.....I just can't see states inventing a new lane....maybe they'd just take one of the three lanes already existing, and forbid gas/diesel cars from operating in the 3rd lane.  Other than peeving consumers....bad idea.

7.  ESPRIT (the clothing sales shop, on the premium side) had 56 shops in Germany and 1300 employees.  Well....things in the past couple of years haven't gone well.....the store is dissolving.  

What I'll say....from all general 'labels' in Germany....this was the one shop where you paid premium costs....for premium clothing.  Their stuff lasted three to five years.  But it's same story for everyone since Covid....folks have cut back on spending money....even the well-off folks.  

9 Aug 2024: Five German News Stories

 1.  WELT piece this AM....E-car registrations are way down in Germany.  Number of enthusiasts now worrying over the lack of public support.  Varying reasons for this.  Will likely turn into a political talking point for the fall 2025 German election.

2.  That power-failure at the Frankfurt airport?  Due to a mouse/rodent....eating through cabling.

3.  I started watch 'Decameron' this week off German Netflix.  Description?  They've taken the plague period in Italy, and written up a comedy of sorts where royals or pretender-royals have escaped civilization and gone off into the 'boonies' to survive at some estate.  I'll just say it's weird....filled with a bit of humor even with the plague in full-turbo, and well-written.

4.  Bankruptcy rate for German commercial companies? First half of 2024....higher than any year (same period) for past decade.  

5.  DIHK is reporting a shortage nationally of trainees/apprentice people for Germany.  Half of all companies are reporting this issue.  Various reasons given.

A Little BREXIT Chat

 I read a social media comment by a non-Brit this week....observing that maybe the best thing to ever happen to the EU...was BREXIT occurring, and sliding the UK out before the 'big-mess' occurred (meaning probably a civil war).

I sat and pondered upon the idea.

The basic idea of BREXIT was that things would improve.....migration could finally be controlled....the UK could develop it's own personal rights.  On just about every single angle....BREXIT failed.  You could outline this....over two-dozen reasons for the failure....it doesn't matter.

Travel and tourism in the UK....made up around 9-percent of the GDP....before Covid.

I would imagine hundreds of thousands of non-Brit tourists....planning trips for the fall and winter  of 2024...plus all of 2025.....are sitting there and pondering....is it really safe in the UK?  Are there NO-GO zones?  Are the police monitoring your social media while visiting the UK....possibly arresting you?

I don't blame any particular group.  

From a EU prospective?  To be honest, I don't see nothing correcting itself and matters just getting worse as each year goes by.  

So yeah....maybe BREXIT was a fantastic idea.....timed just right, and giving everyone a brief idea of poor planning having consequences.

8 August 2024: Nine German News Stories

 1.  German authorities had a 'to-do' project.....find a nuke-energy-storage site by 2031.   

Well....things aren't going as planned, and the new find-date is figured to be 2074.  Yeah....90-percent of Germans alive today...won't be around to note the grand-opening.

2.  If you want to buy a E-vape situation in Germany...the law says you must be 18.  Well....the cigarettes' industry is admitting....fair number of under-age E-vape 'kids' now exist, and illegally acquiring the vapes.

3.  Couple of weeks ago...the right-wing extreme magazine....'Compact' was shut-down.  It appears that it's being published somewhere (probably beyond the border)....but they changed the name of the publication....to 'NANCY'....in honor of the Interior Minister.  Funny in a way...I guess.

4.  There's talk that a 'right-to-work-from-home' is being designed by the Bundestag (by the Green Party).

If you asked me the odds of passing?  I'd say less than 30-percent.

5.  Half of all German psychiatric hospitals have a staff shortage.

6.  Someone made up a index of kids in the world....who are happy.  So at the top of the list is the Netherlands.  Why?

Well....the study says that Dutch parents teach independence a great deal, and they emphasize independent thought/opinion....more so that other cultures.

7.  I was reading a piece yesterday over the EU mandated 'attached-cap' to plastic drink bottles.

To relate this to the American....the EU decided there was a problem where plastic drink caps were not being turned-in with the plastic bottles (mandated to be recycled).  So the EU stood up (around 2 years ago) and told the drink manufacturing folks....you need to make a bottle, which has a cap attached to the bottle.  So they did that.

It's been out now for about 3 months.

Most people hate the attached nature of the cap...makes it more difficult to pour or drink from the bottle.  Some analyst finally went out and asked the question....was this a 'problem' which required fixing by the EU? Consensus?  NO....it was never a problem.

Me?  Once I open such a bottle....I RIP off the attached cap.

8.  Several arrests being conducted in Vienna.....connected to scheduled Taylor Swift concerts which were to be held shortly.  Appears for the time being....all three concerts cancelled.  Key person involved?  19-year old.

Based on police story told....this goes off into a weird direction.  Key guy is a Austrian, but seems to have been radicalized of the Internet. Police say he had some type of "sworn allegiance" to the jihadist militia Islamic state (IS) recently.

 Yeah, just plain weird.  Tickets affected?  Near 200k. 

9.  Another grocery store roof in Germany collapses....this one in Lower Saxony. Same brand?  Yep, Netto.  I'm guessing some safety audit will be mandated over this trend.